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000
FXUS66 KOTX 180933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho today.
The front will push temperatures closer to normal and bring the
potential for widely scattered showers. A strong high pressure
ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry weather through
the weekend. High temperatures Sunday should be ten degrees above
normal. The breakdown of this ridge...and a return to cooler
conditions...will begin Monday. However...precipitation is not
expected until late Tuesday or Wednesday for most towns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...Scattered showers will develop across the
Inland Northwest today as moisture continues to stream into the
region from the southwest. So far the light radar returns on
regional radar mosaic have not resulted in any precipitation
reports from observation sites across the forecast area. The dry
lower levels of the atmosphere, as seen on 00Z OTX sounding, will
take a while to moisten up. The best chance of showers across the
area will be this afternoon as the cold front and shortwave trough
slide across the region. Modest instability may allow isolated
thunderstorms to develop across extreme eastern WA and the
panhandle of Idaho. As daytime instability increases this
afternoon, bulk shear decreases substantially so organized storm
cells are not anticipated. Winds will increase behind the cold
front, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph common from the Cascade gap
valleys, across the basin and into the Palouse and west plains.
Daytime temperatures will be somewhat cooler for the western zones
but pretty close to Wednesday`s readings for extreme eastern WA
and north Idaho. Overnight temperatures tonight will remain above
normal thanks to gusty winds behind the front. /Kelch

Fri through Mon Nt: With a rapidly building upper ridge Fri
through the weekend, we`re not expecting any pcpn as large-scale
subsidence/warming aloft accompanies clear skies and light winds.
Fri morning should be the coolest morning, with some NE Wa and N
Idaho valleys seeing some patchy fog. The warmest day should be
Sunday with high temps generally in the 80s... 10 degrees warmer
than normal for a number of towns. The breakdown of the
ridge...and the approach of a strong Ern Pacific trough...still
looks to be on track for the Mon through Tue time frame. Based on
trends in model guidance, the lack of sufficient instability, and
a deep sub-cloud dry lyr, the first minor wave that ejects from
the offshore trough Tues morning is not expected to produce any
pcpn outside of the mtns across the E Slopes of the Cascades.bz

Tuesday through Thursday: A cold front will be pushing through the
region during this period bringing a small taste of autumn along
with it. Poor consistency among the models is keeping the exact
timing of the front a little unclear. It is expected to a chance
of precip to the entire Inland Northwest and temperatures will
decrease around 10 degrees from the beginning of the period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and incoming cold front/upper
trough impact the Inland NW, providing increased cloud cover and
the threat of a few showers. The best shower chances will be near
the Cascades, including EAT, and over the northeast mountains
going into later tonight into Thursday. A threat will come up
through the Blue Mountain and toward the Central Panhandle of ID
late overnight into Thursday morning, potentially near LWS and PUW
between 09-15Z. Other chances will be found in the vcnty of GEG to
COE in the afternoon with the passing front. There is also the
slight risk for -tsra across the MTNS of far eastern WA and north
ID. Expect increased winds Thursday afternoon, with gusts in the
20 to 25kt range, locally higher near EAT. Winds will gradually
abate after Thursday evening (after 02-04Z). /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  55  76  48  81  52 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  79  54  76  46  80  49 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        81  53  76  45  81  49 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       86  60  82  53  86  55 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       83  52  80  45  84  47 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      75  47  74  39  78  44 /  40  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        77  53  73  46  78  46 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     85  57  84  49  85  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  61  83  54  84  55 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  55  82  48  85  49 /  30  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 180933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho today.
The front will push temperatures closer to normal and bring the
potential for widely scattered showers. A strong high pressure
ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry weather through
the weekend. High temperatures Sunday should be ten degrees above
normal. The breakdown of this ridge...and a return to cooler
conditions...will begin Monday. However...precipitation is not
expected until late Tuesday or Wednesday for most towns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...Scattered showers will develop across the
Inland Northwest today as moisture continues to stream into the
region from the southwest. So far the light radar returns on
regional radar mosaic have not resulted in any precipitation
reports from observation sites across the forecast area. The dry
lower levels of the atmosphere, as seen on 00Z OTX sounding, will
take a while to moisten up. The best chance of showers across the
area will be this afternoon as the cold front and shortwave trough
slide across the region. Modest instability may allow isolated
thunderstorms to develop across extreme eastern WA and the
panhandle of Idaho. As daytime instability increases this
afternoon, bulk shear decreases substantially so organized storm
cells are not anticipated. Winds will increase behind the cold
front, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph common from the Cascade gap
valleys, across the basin and into the Palouse and west plains.
Daytime temperatures will be somewhat cooler for the western zones
but pretty close to Wednesday`s readings for extreme eastern WA
and north Idaho. Overnight temperatures tonight will remain above
normal thanks to gusty winds behind the front. /Kelch

Fri through Mon Nt: With a rapidly building upper ridge Fri
through the weekend, we`re not expecting any pcpn as large-scale
subsidence/warming aloft accompanies clear skies and light winds.
Fri morning should be the coolest morning, with some NE Wa and N
Idaho valleys seeing some patchy fog. The warmest day should be
Sunday with high temps generally in the 80s... 10 degrees warmer
than normal for a number of towns. The breakdown of the
ridge...and the approach of a strong Ern Pacific trough...still
looks to be on track for the Mon through Tue time frame. Based on
trends in model guidance, the lack of sufficient instability, and
a deep sub-cloud dry lyr, the first minor wave that ejects from
the offshore trough Tues morning is not expected to produce any
pcpn outside of the mtns across the E Slopes of the Cascades.bz

Tuesday through Thursday: A cold front will be pushing through the
region during this period bringing a small taste of autumn along
with it. Poor consistency among the models is keeping the exact
timing of the front a little unclear. It is expected to a chance
of precip to the entire Inland Northwest and temperatures will
decrease around 10 degrees from the beginning of the period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and incoming cold front/upper
trough impact the Inland NW, providing increased cloud cover and
the threat of a few showers. The best shower chances will be near
the Cascades, including EAT, and over the northeast mountains
going into later tonight into Thursday. A threat will come up
through the Blue Mountain and toward the Central Panhandle of ID
late overnight into Thursday morning, potentially near LWS and PUW
between 09-15Z. Other chances will be found in the vcnty of GEG to
COE in the afternoon with the passing front. There is also the
slight risk for -tsra across the MTNS of far eastern WA and north
ID. Expect increased winds Thursday afternoon, with gusts in the
20 to 25kt range, locally higher near EAT. Winds will gradually
abate after Thursday evening (after 02-04Z). /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  55  76  48  81  52 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  79  54  76  46  80  49 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        81  53  76  45  81  49 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       86  60  82  53  86  55 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       83  52  80  45  84  47 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      75  47  74  39  78  44 /  40  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        77  53  73  46  78  46 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     85  57  84  49  85  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  61  83  54  84  55 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  55  82  48  85  49 /  30  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 180933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho today.
The front will push temperatures closer to normal and bring the
potential for widely scattered showers. A strong high pressure
ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry weather through
the weekend. High temperatures Sunday should be ten degrees above
normal. The breakdown of this ridge...and a return to cooler
conditions...will begin Monday. However...precipitation is not
expected until late Tuesday or Wednesday for most towns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...Scattered showers will develop across the
Inland Northwest today as moisture continues to stream into the
region from the southwest. So far the light radar returns on
regional radar mosaic have not resulted in any precipitation
reports from observation sites across the forecast area. The dry
lower levels of the atmosphere, as seen on 00Z OTX sounding, will
take a while to moisten up. The best chance of showers across the
area will be this afternoon as the cold front and shortwave trough
slide across the region. Modest instability may allow isolated
thunderstorms to develop across extreme eastern WA and the
panhandle of Idaho. As daytime instability increases this
afternoon, bulk shear decreases substantially so organized storm
cells are not anticipated. Winds will increase behind the cold
front, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph common from the Cascade gap
valleys, across the basin and into the Palouse and west plains.
Daytime temperatures will be somewhat cooler for the western zones
but pretty close to Wednesday`s readings for extreme eastern WA
and north Idaho. Overnight temperatures tonight will remain above
normal thanks to gusty winds behind the front. /Kelch

Fri through Mon Nt: With a rapidly building upper ridge Fri
through the weekend, we`re not expecting any pcpn as large-scale
subsidence/warming aloft accompanies clear skies and light winds.
Fri morning should be the coolest morning, with some NE Wa and N
Idaho valleys seeing some patchy fog. The warmest day should be
Sunday with high temps generally in the 80s... 10 degrees warmer
than normal for a number of towns. The breakdown of the
ridge...and the approach of a strong Ern Pacific trough...still
looks to be on track for the Mon through Tue time frame. Based on
trends in model guidance, the lack of sufficient instability, and
a deep sub-cloud dry lyr, the first minor wave that ejects from
the offshore trough Tues morning is not expected to produce any
pcpn outside of the mtns across the E Slopes of the Cascades.bz

Tuesday through Thursday: A cold front will be pushing through the
region during this period bringing a small taste of autumn along
with it. Poor consistency among the models is keeping the exact
timing of the front a little unclear. It is expected to a chance
of precip to the entire Inland Northwest and temperatures will
decrease around 10 degrees from the beginning of the period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and incoming cold front/upper
trough impact the Inland NW, providing increased cloud cover and
the threat of a few showers. The best shower chances will be near
the Cascades, including EAT, and over the northeast mountains
going into later tonight into Thursday. A threat will come up
through the Blue Mountain and toward the Central Panhandle of ID
late overnight into Thursday morning, potentially near LWS and PUW
between 09-15Z. Other chances will be found in the vcnty of GEG to
COE in the afternoon with the passing front. There is also the
slight risk for -tsra across the MTNS of far eastern WA and north
ID. Expect increased winds Thursday afternoon, with gusts in the
20 to 25kt range, locally higher near EAT. Winds will gradually
abate after Thursday evening (after 02-04Z). /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  55  76  48  81  52 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  79  54  76  46  80  49 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        81  53  76  45  81  49 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       86  60  82  53  86  55 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       83  52  80  45  84  47 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      75  47  74  39  78  44 /  40  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        77  53  73  46  78  46 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     85  57  84  49  85  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  61  83  54  84  55 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  55  82  48  85  49 /  30  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 180933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho today.
The front will push temperatures closer to normal and bring the
potential for widely scattered showers. A strong high pressure
ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry weather through
the weekend. High temperatures Sunday should be ten degrees above
normal. The breakdown of this ridge...and a return to cooler
conditions...will begin Monday. However...precipitation is not
expected until late Tuesday or Wednesday for most towns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...Scattered showers will develop across the
Inland Northwest today as moisture continues to stream into the
region from the southwest. So far the light radar returns on
regional radar mosaic have not resulted in any precipitation
reports from observation sites across the forecast area. The dry
lower levels of the atmosphere, as seen on 00Z OTX sounding, will
take a while to moisten up. The best chance of showers across the
area will be this afternoon as the cold front and shortwave trough
slide across the region. Modest instability may allow isolated
thunderstorms to develop across extreme eastern WA and the
panhandle of Idaho. As daytime instability increases this
afternoon, bulk shear decreases substantially so organized storm
cells are not anticipated. Winds will increase behind the cold
front, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph common from the Cascade gap
valleys, across the basin and into the Palouse and west plains.
Daytime temperatures will be somewhat cooler for the western zones
but pretty close to Wednesday`s readings for extreme eastern WA
and north Idaho. Overnight temperatures tonight will remain above
normal thanks to gusty winds behind the front. /Kelch

Fri through Mon Nt: With a rapidly building upper ridge Fri
through the weekend, we`re not expecting any pcpn as large-scale
subsidence/warming aloft accompanies clear skies and light winds.
Fri morning should be the coolest morning, with some NE Wa and N
Idaho valleys seeing some patchy fog. The warmest day should be
Sunday with high temps generally in the 80s... 10 degrees warmer
than normal for a number of towns. The breakdown of the
ridge...and the approach of a strong Ern Pacific trough...still
looks to be on track for the Mon through Tue time frame. Based on
trends in model guidance, the lack of sufficient instability, and
a deep sub-cloud dry lyr, the first minor wave that ejects from
the offshore trough Tues morning is not expected to produce any
pcpn outside of the mtns across the E Slopes of the Cascades.bz

Tuesday through Thursday: A cold front will be pushing through the
region during this period bringing a small taste of autumn along
with it. Poor consistency among the models is keeping the exact
timing of the front a little unclear. It is expected to a chance
of precip to the entire Inland Northwest and temperatures will
decrease around 10 degrees from the beginning of the period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and incoming cold front/upper
trough impact the Inland NW, providing increased cloud cover and
the threat of a few showers. The best shower chances will be near
the Cascades, including EAT, and over the northeast mountains
going into later tonight into Thursday. A threat will come up
through the Blue Mountain and toward the Central Panhandle of ID
late overnight into Thursday morning, potentially near LWS and PUW
between 09-15Z. Other chances will be found in the vcnty of GEG to
COE in the afternoon with the passing front. There is also the
slight risk for -tsra across the MTNS of far eastern WA and north
ID. Expect increased winds Thursday afternoon, with gusts in the
20 to 25kt range, locally higher near EAT. Winds will gradually
abate after Thursday evening (after 02-04Z). /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  55  76  48  81  52 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  79  54  76  46  80  49 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        81  53  76  45  81  49 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       86  60  82  53  86  55 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       83  52  80  45  84  47 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      75  47  74  39  78  44 /  40  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        77  53  73  46  78  46 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     85  57  84  49  85  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  61  83  54  84  55 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  55  82  48  85  49 /  30  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 180533
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1032 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: tracking a jet streaking coming up through
CA/southern OR and projected to advance toward northeast
OR/southeast WA/central ID late overnight into Thursday morning.
Both the HRRR and NAM Hi-Res have been indicating some shower
threat expanding up through south-central/eastern OR and southern
ID the Blues/Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle between 09Z and
15 or 18Z Thursday (late overnight into Thursday morning). Some
guidance suggest perhaps as far northwest as the Pullman area, but
confidence is not great enough to go that far north. I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some sprinkles that far north though. Overall I
increased PoPs and sky cover over southeast WA through the central
Panhandle. I kept some mention of smoke in that region through
early overnight before the potential shower threat will less than
threat. But this will continue to be assessed. Otherwise the
forecast looks on track and overall the precipitation that comes
with this system still does not look overwhelming. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and incoming cold front/upper
trough impact the Inland NW, providing increased cloud cover and
the threat of a few showers. The best shower chances will be near
the Cascades, including EAT, and over the northeast mountains
going into later tonight into Thursday. A threat will come up
through the Blue Mountain and toward the Central Panhandle of ID
late overnight into Thursday morning, potentially near LWS and PUW
between 09-15Z. Other chances will be found in the vcnty of GEG to
COE in the afternoon with the passing front. There is also the
slight risk for -tsra across the MTNS of far eastern WA and north
ID. Expect increased winds Thursday afternoon, with gusts in the
20 to 25kt range, locally higher near EAT. Winds will gradually
abate after Thursday evening (after 02-04Z). /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 180533
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1032 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: tracking a jet streaking coming up through
CA/southern OR and projected to advance toward northeast
OR/southeast WA/central ID late overnight into Thursday morning.
Both the HRRR and NAM Hi-Res have been indicating some shower
threat expanding up through south-central/eastern OR and southern
ID the Blues/Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle between 09Z and
15 or 18Z Thursday (late overnight into Thursday morning). Some
guidance suggest perhaps as far northwest as the Pullman area, but
confidence is not great enough to go that far north. I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some sprinkles that far north though. Overall I
increased PoPs and sky cover over southeast WA through the central
Panhandle. I kept some mention of smoke in that region through
early overnight before the potential shower threat will less than
threat. But this will continue to be assessed. Otherwise the
forecast looks on track and overall the precipitation that comes
with this system still does not look overwhelming. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and incoming cold front/upper
trough impact the Inland NW, providing increased cloud cover and
the threat of a few showers. The best shower chances will be near
the Cascades, including EAT, and over the northeast mountains
going into later tonight into Thursday. A threat will come up
through the Blue Mountain and toward the Central Panhandle of ID
late overnight into Thursday morning, potentially near LWS and PUW
between 09-15Z. Other chances will be found in the vcnty of GEG to
COE in the afternoon with the passing front. There is also the
slight risk for -tsra across the MTNS of far eastern WA and north
ID. Expect increased winds Thursday afternoon, with gusts in the
20 to 25kt range, locally higher near EAT. Winds will gradually
abate after Thursday evening (after 02-04Z). /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 180533
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1032 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: tracking a jet streaking coming up through
CA/southern OR and projected to advance toward northeast
OR/southeast WA/central ID late overnight into Thursday morning.
Both the HRRR and NAM Hi-Res have been indicating some shower
threat expanding up through south-central/eastern OR and southern
ID the Blues/Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle between 09Z and
15 or 18Z Thursday (late overnight into Thursday morning). Some
guidance suggest perhaps as far northwest as the Pullman area, but
confidence is not great enough to go that far north. I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some sprinkles that far north though. Overall I
increased PoPs and sky cover over southeast WA through the central
Panhandle. I kept some mention of smoke in that region through
early overnight before the potential shower threat will less than
threat. But this will continue to be assessed. Otherwise the
forecast looks on track and overall the precipitation that comes
with this system still does not look overwhelming. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and incoming cold front/upper
trough impact the Inland NW, providing increased cloud cover and
the threat of a few showers. The best shower chances will be near
the Cascades, including EAT, and over the northeast mountains
going into later tonight into Thursday. A threat will come up
through the Blue Mountain and toward the Central Panhandle of ID
late overnight into Thursday morning, potentially near LWS and PUW
between 09-15Z. Other chances will be found in the vcnty of GEG to
COE in the afternoon with the passing front. There is also the
slight risk for -tsra across the MTNS of far eastern WA and north
ID. Expect increased winds Thursday afternoon, with gusts in the
20 to 25kt range, locally higher near EAT. Winds will gradually
abate after Thursday evening (after 02-04Z). /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 180533
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1032 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: tracking a jet streaking coming up through
CA/southern OR and projected to advance toward northeast
OR/southeast WA/central ID late overnight into Thursday morning.
Both the HRRR and NAM Hi-Res have been indicating some shower
threat expanding up through south-central/eastern OR and southern
ID the Blues/Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle between 09Z and
15 or 18Z Thursday (late overnight into Thursday morning). Some
guidance suggest perhaps as far northwest as the Pullman area, but
confidence is not great enough to go that far north. I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some sprinkles that far north though. Overall I
increased PoPs and sky cover over southeast WA through the central
Panhandle. I kept some mention of smoke in that region through
early overnight before the potential shower threat will less than
threat. But this will continue to be assessed. Otherwise the
forecast looks on track and overall the precipitation that comes
with this system still does not look overwhelming. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and incoming cold front/upper
trough impact the Inland NW, providing increased cloud cover and
the threat of a few showers. The best shower chances will be near
the Cascades, including EAT, and over the northeast mountains
going into later tonight into Thursday. A threat will come up
through the Blue Mountain and toward the Central Panhandle of ID
late overnight into Thursday morning, potentially near LWS and PUW
between 09-15Z. Other chances will be found in the vcnty of GEG to
COE in the afternoon with the passing front. There is also the
slight risk for -tsra across the MTNS of far eastern WA and north
ID. Expect increased winds Thursday afternoon, with gusts in the
20 to 25kt range, locally higher near EAT. Winds will gradually
abate after Thursday evening (after 02-04Z). /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 180408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
908 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND FOR
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER TROF OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY THU. OVERALL...PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THRU FRI MORNING.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW STILL IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN AND MAY BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY CLIMATOLOGY. BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
A FEW DEGREES WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED ABOVE MOS...
WITH WIDESPREAD MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA
WILL SHIFT EWD...USHERING IN ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER ON MONDAY AND MORE SO ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES. THIS INITIAL TROUGH WILL FALL APART AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.

LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
WESTERLIES ARRIVING BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD USHER
IN WETTER AND COOL CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL. SOME MODELS INDICATED IT COULD BE RATHER BREEZY AS WELL.
MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING WESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE COAST WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND. AIR MASS UNSTABLE WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...BECOMING MOIST AT THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY
MORNING.

KSEA...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS
IN SHOWERS. CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH WIND 4-8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THURSDAY EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES A BIT BUT THIS LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 180408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
908 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND FOR
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER TROF OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY THU. OVERALL...PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THRU FRI MORNING.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW STILL IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN AND MAY BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY CLIMATOLOGY. BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
A FEW DEGREES WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED ABOVE MOS...
WITH WIDESPREAD MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA
WILL SHIFT EWD...USHERING IN ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER ON MONDAY AND MORE SO ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES. THIS INITIAL TROUGH WILL FALL APART AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.

LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
WESTERLIES ARRIVING BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD USHER
IN WETTER AND COOL CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL. SOME MODELS INDICATED IT COULD BE RATHER BREEZY AS WELL.
MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING WESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE COAST WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND. AIR MASS UNSTABLE WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...BECOMING MOIST AT THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY
MORNING.

KSEA...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS
IN SHOWERS. CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH WIND 4-8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THURSDAY EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES A BIT BUT THIS LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 180351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
850 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: tracking a jet streaking coming up through
CA/southern OR and projected to advance toward northeast
OR/southeast WA/central ID late overnight into Thursday morning.
Both the HRRR and NAM Hi-Res have been indicating some shower
threat expanding up through south-central/eastern OR and southern
ID the Blues/Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle between 09Z and
15 or 18Z Thursday (late overnight into Thursday morning). Some
guidance suggest perhaps as far northwest as the Pullman area, but
confidence is not great enough to go that far north. I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some sprinkles that far north though. Overall I
increased PoPs and sky cover over southeast WA through the central
Panhandle. I kept some mention of smoke in that region through
early overnight before the potential shower threat will less than
threat. But this will continue to be assessed. Otherwise the
forecast looks on track and overall the precipitation that comes
with this system still does not look overwhelming. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and approaching cold front/upper
trough will impact the Inland NW over the next 24 or so hours. The
system appears to stretch and split moving inland, but will still
provide some increased cloud cover and the threat of a few
showers. The best shower chances will be near the Cascades,
including EAT, and over the northeast mountains going into later
tonight into Thursday. There is a small threat near the GEG to COE
and PUW/LWS sites, but the risk is still low to mention in the
TAF. There is also the potential for a few thunderstorms across
the NE MTNS of WA and north ID, but the risk for this is also low.
As the front pushes through look for increased winds Thursday
afternoon, with gusts in the 20 to 25kt range. Lastly, smoke from
nearby wildfires will locally reduce visibilities to MVFR
conditions near PUW/LWS this evening, possibly into the morning,
but guidance suggests its intensity wanes over Wednesday evening.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 180351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
850 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: tracking a jet streaking coming up through
CA/southern OR and projected to advance toward northeast
OR/southeast WA/central ID late overnight into Thursday morning.
Both the HRRR and NAM Hi-Res have been indicating some shower
threat expanding up through south-central/eastern OR and southern
ID the Blues/Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle between 09Z and
15 or 18Z Thursday (late overnight into Thursday morning). Some
guidance suggest perhaps as far northwest as the Pullman area, but
confidence is not great enough to go that far north. I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some sprinkles that far north though. Overall I
increased PoPs and sky cover over southeast WA through the central
Panhandle. I kept some mention of smoke in that region through
early overnight before the potential shower threat will less than
threat. But this will continue to be assessed. Otherwise the
forecast looks on track and overall the precipitation that comes
with this system still does not look overwhelming. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and approaching cold front/upper
trough will impact the Inland NW over the next 24 or so hours. The
system appears to stretch and split moving inland, but will still
provide some increased cloud cover and the threat of a few
showers. The best shower chances will be near the Cascades,
including EAT, and over the northeast mountains going into later
tonight into Thursday. There is a small threat near the GEG to COE
and PUW/LWS sites, but the risk is still low to mention in the
TAF. There is also the potential for a few thunderstorms across
the NE MTNS of WA and north ID, but the risk for this is also low.
As the front pushes through look for increased winds Thursday
afternoon, with gusts in the 20 to 25kt range. Lastly, smoke from
nearby wildfires will locally reduce visibilities to MVFR
conditions near PUW/LWS this evening, possibly into the morning,
but guidance suggests its intensity wanes over Wednesday evening.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 180351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
850 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: tracking a jet streaking coming up through
CA/southern OR and projected to advance toward northeast
OR/southeast WA/central ID late overnight into Thursday morning.
Both the HRRR and NAM Hi-Res have been indicating some shower
threat expanding up through south-central/eastern OR and southern
ID the Blues/Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle between 09Z and
15 or 18Z Thursday (late overnight into Thursday morning). Some
guidance suggest perhaps as far northwest as the Pullman area, but
confidence is not great enough to go that far north. I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some sprinkles that far north though. Overall I
increased PoPs and sky cover over southeast WA through the central
Panhandle. I kept some mention of smoke in that region through
early overnight before the potential shower threat will less than
threat. But this will continue to be assessed. Otherwise the
forecast looks on track and overall the precipitation that comes
with this system still does not look overwhelming. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and approaching cold front/upper
trough will impact the Inland NW over the next 24 or so hours. The
system appears to stretch and split moving inland, but will still
provide some increased cloud cover and the threat of a few
showers. The best shower chances will be near the Cascades,
including EAT, and over the northeast mountains going into later
tonight into Thursday. There is a small threat near the GEG to COE
and PUW/LWS sites, but the risk is still low to mention in the
TAF. There is also the potential for a few thunderstorms across
the NE MTNS of WA and north ID, but the risk for this is also low.
As the front pushes through look for increased winds Thursday
afternoon, with gusts in the 20 to 25kt range. Lastly, smoke from
nearby wildfires will locally reduce visibilities to MVFR
conditions near PUW/LWS this evening, possibly into the morning,
but guidance suggests its intensity wanes over Wednesday evening.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 180351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
850 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: tracking a jet streaking coming up through
CA/southern OR and projected to advance toward northeast
OR/southeast WA/central ID late overnight into Thursday morning.
Both the HRRR and NAM Hi-Res have been indicating some shower
threat expanding up through south-central/eastern OR and southern
ID the Blues/Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle between 09Z and
15 or 18Z Thursday (late overnight into Thursday morning). Some
guidance suggest perhaps as far northwest as the Pullman area, but
confidence is not great enough to go that far north. I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some sprinkles that far north though. Overall I
increased PoPs and sky cover over southeast WA through the central
Panhandle. I kept some mention of smoke in that region through
early overnight before the potential shower threat will less than
threat. But this will continue to be assessed. Otherwise the
forecast looks on track and overall the precipitation that comes
with this system still does not look overwhelming. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and approaching cold front/upper
trough will impact the Inland NW over the next 24 or so hours. The
system appears to stretch and split moving inland, but will still
provide some increased cloud cover and the threat of a few
showers. The best shower chances will be near the Cascades,
including EAT, and over the northeast mountains going into later
tonight into Thursday. There is a small threat near the GEG to COE
and PUW/LWS sites, but the risk is still low to mention in the
TAF. There is also the potential for a few thunderstorms across
the NE MTNS of WA and north ID, but the risk for this is also low.
As the front pushes through look for increased winds Thursday
afternoon, with gusts in the 20 to 25kt range. Lastly, smoke from
nearby wildfires will locally reduce visibilities to MVFR
conditions near PUW/LWS this evening, possibly into the morning,
but guidance suggests its intensity wanes over Wednesday evening.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 180335
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
834 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OFF THE N CALIF COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IS IT
MOVES INTO N CALIF THROUGH THU EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS...WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES IN OVERALL FORECASTS AND TRENDS. MOST
SHOWERS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO BE OVER SW OREGON AND ALONG THE
COAST. DECENT RAINFALL OVER SW WASHINGTON AND WILLAPA HILLS WHERE
0.25 INCH FELL AT HUCKLEBERRY RAWS IN HILLS ABOVE LONGVIEW...AND
ABOUT 0.15 INCH NEAR HOQUIAM. NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND TRACE AMOUNTS OVER THE INLAND
VALLEYS. OVERALL...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN BEST THREAT OF ACTUAL RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER
COASTAL AREAS DOWN INTO SW OREGON.

WILL MAINTAIN MINOR THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS EVENING
OVER LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS WEAK ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET WILL BRUSH THAT AREA TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL OR MORE THAN
0.01 INCH LOOKS LIKELY ON THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
WETTING RAINS WHICH ARE RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH STILL DO NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUROCKEMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM N OVER
WESTERN OREGON THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WERE PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS
THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOME SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRI MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING N UP THE
COAST LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN N WINDS...POTENTIALLY
UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. A RETURN
TO QUIETER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING
SAT COULD DRIVE SEAS UP CLOSE TO 10 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 172330
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: A trough of low pressure will push across
the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. Satellite imagery shows
this trough located just offshore at 130W longitude. Moisture
streaming into the region out ahead of the trough has resulted in
a steady dose of mid to level clouds with some occasional
sprinkles observed toward the Cascade Mtns. The trough is
currently undergoing some splitting with the bulk of the upper
level dynamics remaining south heading toward California. The
northern branch of this system will weaken as it slowly crosses
into eastern WA tonight into Thursday. Best chances for showers
tonight will be in the Cascade Mtns over into the Okanogan
Highlands. Showers chances will increase further east across the
Northeast Mtns and in the ID Panhandle during the day on Thursday.
Models do not show much moistening of the lower levels across the
basin with this system, so not expecting much more than some
thickening mid level clouds across these areas; there will be a
good chance that this will be the case across the Spokane Area and
on the Palouse as well. I left a slight chance for thunderstorms
in the Northeast Mtns and in the Panhandle for Thursday afternoon,
but models show only some weak instability, so chances for
thunderstorms are marginal at best. Winds will be breezy tomorrow
with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to around 20 mph
expected. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow compared to today
with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. /SVH

Thursday night through Sunday...The evolution and ejection of the
deep upper level trough currently visible off the off the Pacific
coast will impact the first part of the forecast period. latest
models are in good agreement in splitting this feature as it moves
inland...subjecting the forecast area to a weaker northern branch
short wave transit Thursday night with a follow-on dying wave on
Friday. neither of these features is very impressive with dynamic
support...although precipitable water values will be adequate for
shower development with orographic lift over favored terrain.

Thus...low chance/scattered precipitation chances are warranted
over the Idaho Panhandle and Cascades with the first(stronger)
wave and merely Slight chance/isolated pops for a few showers with
the second wave on Friday. Weak instability is also noted with the
first wave due to the residual cold pool aloft on Thursday
evening...enough for a mention of brief and weak thunderstorms
during the evening hours over the Idaho Panhandle.

After that...Late Friday through Sunday...a new and solid upper
level ridge takes over again leading to dry and warming
conditions throughout the region.

Temperatures through this period will remain above normal with
only a weak moderating influence with Thursday`s and Friday`s
wave passages. Winds will be predominantly westerly and locally
breezy near the Cascades Thursday evening and into Friday before
switching back to the northeast by Saturday and Sunday. /Fugazzi

Sunday Night through Wednesday: Strong upper level ridge starts to
shift east Sunday night into Monday. Models are of course
disagreeing with the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. For now
have trended more towards the ECMWF which is slower in bringing
the next weather system onshore. Have a slight chance of precip in
the Cascades Monday night and Tuesday and then bring widespread
slight chance to chance of precip into the area for Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Models are hinting at quite a big trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest starting Tuesday. As such have
increased our cloud cover quite a bit starting Monday night...with
further increase in clouds likely. A cold front looks to pass Tue
night/Wed morning with high temps dropping about 10 degrees from
Tue to Wed. The only other big changes made was increased mountain
temperatures for Sunday night and Monday night given the strength
of the ridge. Temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s is quite likely in
the mtns. In response to the warmer mtn temps, overnight relative
humidities will be pretty low in the mtns as well. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and approaching cold front/upper
trough will impact the Inland NW over the next 24 or so hours. The
system appears to stretch and split moving inland, but will still
provide some increased cloud cover and the threat of a few
showers. The best shower chances will be near the Cascades,
including EAT, and over the northeast mountains going into later
tonight into Thursday. There is a small threat near the GEG to COE
and PUW/LWS sites, but the risk is still low to mention in the
TAF. There is also the potential for a few thunderstorms across
the NE MTNS of WA and north ID, but the risk for this is also low.
As the front pushes through look for increased winds Thursday
afternoon, with gusts in the 20 to 25kt range. Lastly, smoke from
nearby wildfires will locally reduce visibilities to MVFR
conditions near PUW/LWS this evening, possibly into the morning,
but guidance suggests its intensity wanes over Wednesday evening.
/J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        52  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 172330
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: A trough of low pressure will push across
the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. Satellite imagery shows
this trough located just offshore at 130W longitude. Moisture
streaming into the region out ahead of the trough has resulted in
a steady dose of mid to level clouds with some occasional
sprinkles observed toward the Cascade Mtns. The trough is
currently undergoing some splitting with the bulk of the upper
level dynamics remaining south heading toward California. The
northern branch of this system will weaken as it slowly crosses
into eastern WA tonight into Thursday. Best chances for showers
tonight will be in the Cascade Mtns over into the Okanogan
Highlands. Showers chances will increase further east across the
Northeast Mtns and in the ID Panhandle during the day on Thursday.
Models do not show much moistening of the lower levels across the
basin with this system, so not expecting much more than some
thickening mid level clouds across these areas; there will be a
good chance that this will be the case across the Spokane Area and
on the Palouse as well. I left a slight chance for thunderstorms
in the Northeast Mtns and in the Panhandle for Thursday afternoon,
but models show only some weak instability, so chances for
thunderstorms are marginal at best. Winds will be breezy tomorrow
with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to around 20 mph
expected. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow compared to today
with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. /SVH

Thursday night through Sunday...The evolution and ejection of the
deep upper level trough currently visible off the off the Pacific
coast will impact the first part of the forecast period. latest
models are in good agreement in splitting this feature as it moves
inland...subjecting the forecast area to a weaker northern branch
short wave transit Thursday night with a follow-on dying wave on
Friday. neither of these features is very impressive with dynamic
support...although precipitable water values will be adequate for
shower development with orographic lift over favored terrain.

Thus...low chance/scattered precipitation chances are warranted
over the Idaho Panhandle and Cascades with the first(stronger)
wave and merely Slight chance/isolated pops for a few showers with
the second wave on Friday. Weak instability is also noted with the
first wave due to the residual cold pool aloft on Thursday
evening...enough for a mention of brief and weak thunderstorms
during the evening hours over the Idaho Panhandle.

After that...Late Friday through Sunday...a new and solid upper
level ridge takes over again leading to dry and warming
conditions throughout the region.

Temperatures through this period will remain above normal with
only a weak moderating influence with Thursday`s and Friday`s
wave passages. Winds will be predominantly westerly and locally
breezy near the Cascades Thursday evening and into Friday before
switching back to the northeast by Saturday and Sunday. /Fugazzi

Sunday Night through Wednesday: Strong upper level ridge starts to
shift east Sunday night into Monday. Models are of course
disagreeing with the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. For now
have trended more towards the ECMWF which is slower in bringing
the next weather system onshore. Have a slight chance of precip in
the Cascades Monday night and Tuesday and then bring widespread
slight chance to chance of precip into the area for Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Models are hinting at quite a big trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest starting Tuesday. As such have
increased our cloud cover quite a bit starting Monday night...with
further increase in clouds likely. A cold front looks to pass Tue
night/Wed morning with high temps dropping about 10 degrees from
Tue to Wed. The only other big changes made was increased mountain
temperatures for Sunday night and Monday night given the strength
of the ridge. Temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s is quite likely in
the mtns. In response to the warmer mtn temps, overnight relative
humidities will be pretty low in the mtns as well. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A moist southwest flow and approaching cold front/upper
trough will impact the Inland NW over the next 24 or so hours. The
system appears to stretch and split moving inland, but will still
provide some increased cloud cover and the threat of a few
showers. The best shower chances will be near the Cascades,
including EAT, and over the northeast mountains going into later
tonight into Thursday. There is a small threat near the GEG to COE
and PUW/LWS sites, but the risk is still low to mention in the
TAF. There is also the potential for a few thunderstorms across
the NE MTNS of WA and north ID, but the risk for this is also low.
As the front pushes through look for increased winds Thursday
afternoon, with gusts in the 20 to 25kt range. Lastly, smoke from
nearby wildfires will locally reduce visibilities to MVFR
conditions near PUW/LWS this evening, possibly into the morning,
but guidance suggests its intensity wanes over Wednesday evening.
/J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        52  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 172235 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A TRAILING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY
SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER DISORGANIZED MASS
OF MID/HIGH BASED CLOUDS STREAMING NWD INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS FED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IS BECOMING CUT OFF BUT A
PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GET PULLED INTO WRN WA TONIGHT. VARIOUS
MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY BECOMING SATURATED
LATER TONIGHT. A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MOST THE AREA.

THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EWD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE EARLY ON...THEN DECREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME MESO MODELS AND EVEN THE GFS40 IMPLY A
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE SURFACE RIDGE W OF PUGET SOUND SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE FLOW
FAVORING THE N SEATTLE TO EVERETT CORRIDOR. GRADIENTS WEAKEN LATE
THU NIGHT AND ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH.

ANOTHER WEAK TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES WRN WA FRIDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. THE FLOW TURNS MORE NWLY FRI AFTERNOON AS UPPER HEIGHTS
START TO BUILD. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY
AMPLIFIES OVER THE PAC NW. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST SO OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DRY OUT THE AIR MASS AND ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND. SOME AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY REACH THE
LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AND OFFSHORE FLOW STILL IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL IN
THIS PATTERN AND MAY BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY CLIMATOLOGY. BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDED ABOVE MOS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA WILL
SHIFT EWD...USHERING IN ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER ON MONDAY AND MORE SO ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES.
THIS INITIAL TROUGH WILL FALL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
WESTERLIES ARRIVING BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD USHER IN
WETTER AND COOL CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FALL.
SOME MODELS INDICATE IT COULD BE RATHER BREEZY AS WELL.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...SENDING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN WA. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHERLY WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WEAK LIFT OVER THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWS MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. 33

KSEA...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT 06-12Z AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SLY
06-09Z. 33

&&

.MARINE...A 998 MB LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND INLAND ON
THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN WA...EXCEPT WEST WINDS RISING TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE
COAST. THIS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON SUN. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON MON. MODELS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NE PAC MIDWEEK...HOWEVER EXACT
STRENGTH AND TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 172235 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A TRAILING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY
SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER DISORGANIZED MASS
OF MID/HIGH BASED CLOUDS STREAMING NWD INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HAS FED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IS BECOMING CUT OFF BUT A
PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GET PULLED INTO WRN WA TONIGHT. VARIOUS
MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY BECOMING SATURATED
LATER TONIGHT. A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MOST THE AREA.

THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EWD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE EARLY ON...THEN DECREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME MESO MODELS AND EVEN THE GFS40 IMPLY A
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE SURFACE RIDGE W OF PUGET SOUND SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE FLOW
FAVORING THE N SEATTLE TO EVERETT CORRIDOR. GRADIENTS WEAKEN LATE
THU NIGHT AND ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH.

ANOTHER WEAK TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES WRN WA FRIDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. THE FLOW TURNS MORE NWLY FRI AFTERNOON AS UPPER HEIGHTS
START TO BUILD. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY
AMPLIFIES OVER THE PAC NW. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST SO OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DRY OUT THE AIR MASS AND ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND. SOME AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY REACH THE
LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AND OFFSHORE FLOW STILL IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL IN
THIS PATTERN AND MAY BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY CLIMATOLOGY. BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES WARMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDED ABOVE MOS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA WILL
SHIFT EWD...USHERING IN ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER ON MONDAY AND MORE SO ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES.
THIS INITIAL TROUGH WILL FALL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
WESTERLIES ARRIVING BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD USHER IN
WETTER AND COOL CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FALL.
SOME MODELS INDICATE IT COULD BE RATHER BREEZY AS WELL.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...SENDING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN WA. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHERLY WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WEAK LIFT OVER THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWS MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. 33

KSEA...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT 06-12Z AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SLY
06-09Z. 33

&&

.MARINE...A 998 MB LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND INLAND ON
THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN WA...EXCEPT WEST WINDS RISING TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE
COAST. THIS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON SUN. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON MON. MODELS SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NE PAC MIDWEEK...HOWEVER EXACT
STRENGTH AND TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



















000
FXUS66 KPQR 172208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WHILE HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING
THE REGION IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN OF RAIN OR LESS
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS REGION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTINCT PV ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET THAT WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TO FALL ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS STILL DO NOT APPEAR ALL
THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...INCREASING MID LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING
COASTAL SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...BUT IT IS NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY. SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. SCATTERED CIGS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. /27


&&


.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WAVE TRAINS AS NW SWELL WILL
MOSTLY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE VARYING AND
SHIFTING FROM SW TO W BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS RUNNING 6
TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE...WITH PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 172208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WHILE HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING
THE REGION IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN OF RAIN OR LESS
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS REGION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTINCT PV ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET THAT WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TO FALL ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS STILL DO NOT APPEAR ALL
THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...INCREASING MID LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING
COASTAL SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...BUT IT IS NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY. SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. SCATTERED CIGS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. /27


&&


.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WAVE TRAINS AS NW SWELL WILL
MOSTLY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE VARYING AND
SHIFTING FROM SW TO W BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS RUNNING 6
TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE...WITH PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 172208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WHILE HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING
THE REGION IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN OF RAIN OR LESS
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS REGION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTINCT PV ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET THAT WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TO FALL ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS STILL DO NOT APPEAR ALL
THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...INCREASING MID LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING
COASTAL SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...BUT IT IS NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY. SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. SCATTERED CIGS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. /27


&&


.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WAVE TRAINS AS NW SWELL WILL
MOSTLY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE VARYING AND
SHIFTING FROM SW TO W BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS RUNNING 6
TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE...WITH PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 172208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WHILE HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING
THE REGION IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN OF RAIN OR LESS
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS REGION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTINCT PV ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET THAT WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TO FALL ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS STILL DO NOT APPEAR ALL
THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...INCREASING MID LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING
COASTAL SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...BUT IT IS NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY. SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. SCATTERED CIGS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. /27


&&


.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WAVE TRAINS AS NW SWELL WILL
MOSTLY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE VARYING AND
SHIFTING FROM SW TO W BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS RUNNING 6
TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE...WITH PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 172122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: A trough of low pressure will push across
the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. Satellite imagery shows
this trough located just offshore at 130W longitude. Moisture
streaming into the region out ahead of the trough has resulted in
a steady dose of mid to level clouds with some occasional
sprinkles observed toward the Cascade Mtns. The trough is
currently undergoing some splitting with the bulk of the upper
level dynamics remaining south heading toward California. The
northern branch of this system will weaken as it slowly crosses
into eastern WA tonight into Thursday. Best chances for showers
tonight will be in the Cascade Mtns over into the Okanogan
Highlands. Showers chances will increase further east across the
Northeast Mtns and in the ID Panhandle during the day on Thursday.
Models do not show much moistening of the lower levels across the
basin with this system, so not expecting much more than some
thickening mid level clouds across these areas; there will be a
good chance that this will be the case across the Spokane Area and
on the Palouse as well. I left a slight chance for thunderstorms
in the Northeast Mtns and in the Panhandle for Thursday afternoon,
but models show only some weak instability, so chances for thunderstorms
are marginal at best. Winds will be breezy tomorrow with sustained
winds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to around 20 mph expected. Temperatures
will be cooler tomorrow compared to today with highs in the mid
70s to mid 80s. /SVH

Thursday night through Sunday...The evolution and ejection of the
deep upper level trough currently visible off the off the Pacific
coast will impact the first part of the forecast period. latest
models are in good agreement in splitting this feature as it moves
inland...subjecting the forecast area to a weaker northern branch
short wave transit Thursday night with a follow-on dying wave on
Friday. neither of these features is very impressive with dynamic
support...although precipitable water values will be adequate for
shower development with orographic lift over favored terrain.

Thus...low chance/scattered precipitation chances are warranted
over the Idaho Panhandle and Cascades with the first(stronger)
wave and merely Slight chance/isolated pops for a few showers with
the second wave on Friday. Weak instability is also noted with the
first wave due to the residual cold pool aloft on Thursday
evening...enough for a mention of brief and weak thunderstorms
during the evening hours over the Idaho Panhandle.

After that...Late Friday through Sunday...a new and solid upper
level ridge takes over again leading to dry and warming
conditions throughout the region.

Temperatures through this period will remain above normal with
only a weak moderating influence with Thursday`s and Friday`s
wave passages. Winds will be predominantly westerly and locally
breezy near the Cascades Thursday evening and into Friday before
switching back to the northeast by Saturday and Sunday. /Fugazzi

Sunday Night through Wednesday: Strong upper level ridge starts to
shift east Sunday night into Monday. Models are of course
disagreeing with the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. For now
have trended more towards the ECMWF which is slower in bringing
the next weather system onshore. Have a slight chance of precip in
the Cascades Monday night and Tuesday and then bring widespread
slight chance to chance of precip into the area for Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Models are hinting at quite a big trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest starting Tuesday. As such have
increased our cloud cover quite a bit starting Monday night...with
further increase in clouds likely. A cold front looks to pass Tue
night/Wed morning with high temps dropping about 10 degrees from
Tue to Wed. The only other big changes made was increased mountain
temperatures for Sunday night and Monday night given the strength
of the ridge. Temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s is quite likely in
the mtns. In response to the warmer mtn temps, overnight relative
humidities will be pretty low in the mtns as well. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south today. A cold front will
move through the forecast area Thursday. Middle and high level
clouds will thicken with a slight chance of showers for the
Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip by EAT after 06Z Thursday.
Some smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR
conditions around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look
for VFR, dry conditions. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        52  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 172122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: A trough of low pressure will push across
the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. Satellite imagery shows
this trough located just offshore at 130W longitude. Moisture
streaming into the region out ahead of the trough has resulted in
a steady dose of mid to level clouds with some occasional
sprinkles observed toward the Cascade Mtns. The trough is
currently undergoing some splitting with the bulk of the upper
level dynamics remaining south heading toward California. The
northern branch of this system will weaken as it slowly crosses
into eastern WA tonight into Thursday. Best chances for showers
tonight will be in the Cascade Mtns over into the Okanogan
Highlands. Showers chances will increase further east across the
Northeast Mtns and in the ID Panhandle during the day on Thursday.
Models do not show much moistening of the lower levels across the
basin with this system, so not expecting much more than some
thickening mid level clouds across these areas; there will be a
good chance that this will be the case across the Spokane Area and
on the Palouse as well. I left a slight chance for thunderstorms
in the Northeast Mtns and in the Panhandle for Thursday afternoon,
but models show only some weak instability, so chances for thunderstorms
are marginal at best. Winds will be breezy tomorrow with sustained
winds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to around 20 mph expected. Temperatures
will be cooler tomorrow compared to today with highs in the mid
70s to mid 80s. /SVH

Thursday night through Sunday...The evolution and ejection of the
deep upper level trough currently visible off the off the Pacific
coast will impact the first part of the forecast period. latest
models are in good agreement in splitting this feature as it moves
inland...subjecting the forecast area to a weaker northern branch
short wave transit Thursday night with a follow-on dying wave on
Friday. neither of these features is very impressive with dynamic
support...although precipitable water values will be adequate for
shower development with orographic lift over favored terrain.

Thus...low chance/scattered precipitation chances are warranted
over the Idaho Panhandle and Cascades with the first(stronger)
wave and merely Slight chance/isolated pops for a few showers with
the second wave on Friday. Weak instability is also noted with the
first wave due to the residual cold pool aloft on Thursday
evening...enough for a mention of brief and weak thunderstorms
during the evening hours over the Idaho Panhandle.

After that...Late Friday through Sunday...a new and solid upper
level ridge takes over again leading to dry and warming
conditions throughout the region.

Temperatures through this period will remain above normal with
only a weak moderating influence with Thursday`s and Friday`s
wave passages. Winds will be predominantly westerly and locally
breezy near the Cascades Thursday evening and into Friday before
switching back to the northeast by Saturday and Sunday. /Fugazzi

Sunday Night through Wednesday: Strong upper level ridge starts to
shift east Sunday night into Monday. Models are of course
disagreeing with the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. For now
have trended more towards the ECMWF which is slower in bringing
the next weather system onshore. Have a slight chance of precip in
the Cascades Monday night and Tuesday and then bring widespread
slight chance to chance of precip into the area for Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Models are hinting at quite a big trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest starting Tuesday. As such have
increased our cloud cover quite a bit starting Monday night...with
further increase in clouds likely. A cold front looks to pass Tue
night/Wed morning with high temps dropping about 10 degrees from
Tue to Wed. The only other big changes made was increased mountain
temperatures for Sunday night and Monday night given the strength
of the ridge. Temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s is quite likely in
the mtns. In response to the warmer mtn temps, overnight relative
humidities will be pretty low in the mtns as well. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south today. A cold front will
move through the forecast area Thursday. Middle and high level
clouds will thicken with a slight chance of showers for the
Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip by EAT after 06Z Thursday.
Some smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR
conditions around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look
for VFR, dry conditions. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        52  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 172122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: A trough of low pressure will push across
the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. Satellite imagery shows
this trough located just offshore at 130W longitude. Moisture
streaming into the region out ahead of the trough has resulted in
a steady dose of mid to level clouds with some occasional
sprinkles observed toward the Cascade Mtns. The trough is
currently undergoing some splitting with the bulk of the upper
level dynamics remaining south heading toward California. The
northern branch of this system will weaken as it slowly crosses
into eastern WA tonight into Thursday. Best chances for showers
tonight will be in the Cascade Mtns over into the Okanogan
Highlands. Showers chances will increase further east across the
Northeast Mtns and in the ID Panhandle during the day on Thursday.
Models do not show much moistening of the lower levels across the
basin with this system, so not expecting much more than some
thickening mid level clouds across these areas; there will be a
good chance that this will be the case across the Spokane Area and
on the Palouse as well. I left a slight chance for thunderstorms
in the Northeast Mtns and in the Panhandle for Thursday afternoon,
but models show only some weak instability, so chances for thunderstorms
are marginal at best. Winds will be breezy tomorrow with sustained
winds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to around 20 mph expected. Temperatures
will be cooler tomorrow compared to today with highs in the mid
70s to mid 80s. /SVH

Thursday night through Sunday...The evolution and ejection of the
deep upper level trough currently visible off the off the Pacific
coast will impact the first part of the forecast period. latest
models are in good agreement in splitting this feature as it moves
inland...subjecting the forecast area to a weaker northern branch
short wave transit Thursday night with a follow-on dying wave on
Friday. neither of these features is very impressive with dynamic
support...although precipitable water values will be adequate for
shower development with orographic lift over favored terrain.

Thus...low chance/scattered precipitation chances are warranted
over the Idaho Panhandle and Cascades with the first(stronger)
wave and merely Slight chance/isolated pops for a few showers with
the second wave on Friday. Weak instability is also noted with the
first wave due to the residual cold pool aloft on Thursday
evening...enough for a mention of brief and weak thunderstorms
during the evening hours over the Idaho Panhandle.

After that...Late Friday through Sunday...a new and solid upper
level ridge takes over again leading to dry and warming
conditions throughout the region.

Temperatures through this period will remain above normal with
only a weak moderating influence with Thursday`s and Friday`s
wave passages. Winds will be predominantly westerly and locally
breezy near the Cascades Thursday evening and into Friday before
switching back to the northeast by Saturday and Sunday. /Fugazzi

Sunday Night through Wednesday: Strong upper level ridge starts to
shift east Sunday night into Monday. Models are of course
disagreeing with the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. For now
have trended more towards the ECMWF which is slower in bringing
the next weather system onshore. Have a slight chance of precip in
the Cascades Monday night and Tuesday and then bring widespread
slight chance to chance of precip into the area for Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Models are hinting at quite a big trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest starting Tuesday. As such have
increased our cloud cover quite a bit starting Monday night...with
further increase in clouds likely. A cold front looks to pass Tue
night/Wed morning with high temps dropping about 10 degrees from
Tue to Wed. The only other big changes made was increased mountain
temperatures for Sunday night and Monday night given the strength
of the ridge. Temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s is quite likely in
the mtns. In response to the warmer mtn temps, overnight relative
humidities will be pretty low in the mtns as well. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south today. A cold front will
move through the forecast area Thursday. Middle and high level
clouds will thicken with a slight chance of showers for the
Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip by EAT after 06Z Thursday.
Some smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR
conditions around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look
for VFR, dry conditions. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        52  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 172122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through Washington and Idaho on
Thursday. The front will push temperatures closer to normal and
bring the potential for widely scattered showers on Thursday. A
high pressure ridge will return Friday and promote warm and dry
weather through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: A trough of low pressure will push across
the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. Satellite imagery shows
this trough located just offshore at 130W longitude. Moisture
streaming into the region out ahead of the trough has resulted in
a steady dose of mid to level clouds with some occasional
sprinkles observed toward the Cascade Mtns. The trough is
currently undergoing some splitting with the bulk of the upper
level dynamics remaining south heading toward California. The
northern branch of this system will weaken as it slowly crosses
into eastern WA tonight into Thursday. Best chances for showers
tonight will be in the Cascade Mtns over into the Okanogan
Highlands. Showers chances will increase further east across the
Northeast Mtns and in the ID Panhandle during the day on Thursday.
Models do not show much moistening of the lower levels across the
basin with this system, so not expecting much more than some
thickening mid level clouds across these areas; there will be a
good chance that this will be the case across the Spokane Area and
on the Palouse as well. I left a slight chance for thunderstorms
in the Northeast Mtns and in the Panhandle for Thursday afternoon,
but models show only some weak instability, so chances for thunderstorms
are marginal at best. Winds will be breezy tomorrow with sustained
winds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to around 20 mph expected. Temperatures
will be cooler tomorrow compared to today with highs in the mid
70s to mid 80s. /SVH

Thursday night through Sunday...The evolution and ejection of the
deep upper level trough currently visible off the off the Pacific
coast will impact the first part of the forecast period. latest
models are in good agreement in splitting this feature as it moves
inland...subjecting the forecast area to a weaker northern branch
short wave transit Thursday night with a follow-on dying wave on
Friday. neither of these features is very impressive with dynamic
support...although precipitable water values will be adequate for
shower development with orographic lift over favored terrain.

Thus...low chance/scattered precipitation chances are warranted
over the Idaho Panhandle and Cascades with the first(stronger)
wave and merely Slight chance/isolated pops for a few showers with
the second wave on Friday. Weak instability is also noted with the
first wave due to the residual cold pool aloft on Thursday
evening...enough for a mention of brief and weak thunderstorms
during the evening hours over the Idaho Panhandle.

After that...Late Friday through Sunday...a new and solid upper
level ridge takes over again leading to dry and warming
conditions throughout the region.

Temperatures through this period will remain above normal with
only a weak moderating influence with Thursday`s and Friday`s
wave passages. Winds will be predominantly westerly and locally
breezy near the Cascades Thursday evening and into Friday before
switching back to the northeast by Saturday and Sunday. /Fugazzi

Sunday Night through Wednesday: Strong upper level ridge starts to
shift east Sunday night into Monday. Models are of course
disagreeing with the timing of the breakdown of the ridge. For now
have trended more towards the ECMWF which is slower in bringing
the next weather system onshore. Have a slight chance of precip in
the Cascades Monday night and Tuesday and then bring widespread
slight chance to chance of precip into the area for Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Models are hinting at quite a big trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest starting Tuesday. As such have
increased our cloud cover quite a bit starting Monday night...with
further increase in clouds likely. A cold front looks to pass Tue
night/Wed morning with high temps dropping about 10 degrees from
Tue to Wed. The only other big changes made was increased mountain
temperatures for Sunday night and Monday night given the strength
of the ridge. Temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s is quite likely in
the mtns. In response to the warmer mtn temps, overnight relative
humidities will be pretty low in the mtns as well. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south today. A cold front will
move through the forecast area Thursday. Middle and high level
clouds will thicken with a slight chance of showers for the
Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip by EAT after 06Z Thursday.
Some smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR
conditions around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look
for VFR, dry conditions. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  56  76  51  80 /   0  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  55  76  50  80 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        52  80  53  76  49  81 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  86  59  82  56  86 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       53  81  51  80  47  83 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Sandpoint      49  75  51  73  46  76 /   0  30  30  10  10   0
Kellogg        55  77  53  72  50  78 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Moses Lake     58  83  56  84  52  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  82  61  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           58  82  55  82  49  85 /  20  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 171721
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1021 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is in store for the Inland Northwest with
afternoon temperatures in the 80s. A weak cold front will move
through Washington and Idaho on Thursday. The front will push
temperatures closer to normal and bring the potential for widely
scattered showers on Thursday. A high pressure ridge will return
Friday and promote warm and dry weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...The weather pattern will become
more unsettled across the Inland Northwest as the ridge of high
pressure gets nudged to the east by an approaching upper trough.
Regional radar imagery shows some light returns moving northeast
across western WA this morning. The trajectory is more north than
east so shower activity is expected to remain close to the Cascade
crest today although there may be some sprinkles for the Wenatchee
area and the Okanogan Highlands today. The energy associated with
this system is splitting, with the bulk of it remaining in the
southern stream as a low closes off and drifts south along the
west coast. The secondary northern stream will eventually slide
east tonight, bringing some showers to the northern mountains. The
better chance for showers and even a few thunderstorms will be
across the eastern half of the forecast area on Thursday. The
north-south orientation of the trough will allow the very warm air
to remain in place today. Max temperatures will be close to
Tuesdays readings, which are about 10m degrees above seasonal
normals. A cold front will move through late in the day Thursday
bringing cooler conditions but the timing will mean one more day
of above normal temps. Breezy conditions will develop behind the
front with gusts to around 25 mph across the basin. Drier air
behind the front will limit any lingering showers to the Idaho
panhandle Thursday night. /Kelch

Friday through Sunday: The models are in very good agreement
Friday through the weekend...developing a rex block type feature
over the Western U.S. Some residual mid-level moisture in the
northwest flow may produce a small chance for showers over the
mountains of the north Idaho Panhandle and Cascade Crest on Friday.
However, model soundings suggest warming and drying aloft will
limit precipitation chances to the morning hours. Increasing 500mb
heights Friday afternoon into the weekend will shunt the storm
track well north of the region. Above average temperatures will
return by Saturday. Afternoon readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s
will be common Saturday, and Sunday will likely feature mid 80s to
upper 80s. The last weekend on the official summer calendar will
actually feel like summer. Fall officially arrives on Monday the
22nd with the autumn equinox. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday: This is shaping up to be a transition
period for the region as a trough system will begin to press into
the region from the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge pattern will linger
over the region Monday through Tuesday. This will allow for
precip free period. By late Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown
and moisture begins to push over the Cascades area. The precip
will continue to cross the Inland Northwest into through
Wednesday. Winds are expected to become breezy as the trough
moves through the region. Temperatures are expected to decrease
to near season normals. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south today. A cold front will
move through the forecast area Thursday. Middle and high level
clouds will thicken with a slight chance of showers for the
Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip by EAT after 06Z Thursday.
Some smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR
conditions around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look
for VFR, dry conditions. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        84  58  80  56  76  51 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  85  55  80  55  76  50 /  10  10  30  30  10   0
Pullman        86  54  80  53  76  49 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Lewiston       91  62  86  59  82  56 /  10   0  20  20  10   0
Colville       85  54  81  51  80  47 /  10  20  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      80  49  75  51  73  46 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Kellogg        83  54  76  53  72  50 /  10  10  30  30  20   0
Moses Lake     88  59  85  56  84  52 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      87  64  82  61  83  58 /  10  20  20  10   0   0
Omak           88  60  82  55  82  49 /  10  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 171634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE HAZY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION
COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO
EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE REGION IN DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON THIS MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
CONSIST OF VIRGA. HOWEVER...EVERY NOW AND AGAIN...A STRONGER BAND OF
SHOWERS IS PRODUCES SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE. THESE HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE PERSISTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE
AN OCCASIONAL HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH HAS BEEN MEASURED SO FAR.
OVERALL...EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THIS MORNINGS KSLE SOUNDING INDICATES A LAYER OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.
THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS OBSERVED SO
FAR. WHILE IT HAS NOT BEEN DEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SO WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INHERITED.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RIDE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE WX MENTION WAS SWITCHED OVER
FROM BRIEF SPRINKLES TO A MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN IT APPEARS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL STAND A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST...AND LIKELY LOWEST TOWARDS
THE CASCADES. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL FRONT
WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SO POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EC PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH
IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. THIS REMAINS THE MAIN REASON WE DO NOT HAVE HIGHER POPS IN
THE FORECAST THAN PERHAPS IT WOULD APPEAR WE SHOULD GIVEN NAM AND
GFS QPF FIELDS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS SPREAD SOME
LIGHT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE LIGHT
MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 75 TO
80 RANGE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER AREA
OF VORTICITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD IN MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME WITH CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND SOME
SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW CENTER THEN TENDS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SCATTERED ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LIKELY IN
THE OREGON CASCADES.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRYING AND
SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER. THERE IS ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH...FINALLY CLEARING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
START TO RISE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES WILL TEND TO SPREAD
OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EAST WINDS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SMOKE BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A
RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR PERSISTS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME LIGHT RAIN PUSHED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE.
WILL SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING IN
VALLEYS TO E AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES
EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND LESS
THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING
PERIODS...FROM THE NW...W AND SW. EXPECT NW SWELL TO DOMINATE
TODAY AT AROUND 15 SECONDS. OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT...WITH
HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 171634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE HAZY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION
COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO
EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE REGION IN DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON THIS MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
CONSIST OF VIRGA. HOWEVER...EVERY NOW AND AGAIN...A STRONGER BAND OF
SHOWERS IS PRODUCES SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE. THESE HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE PERSISTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE
AN OCCASIONAL HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH HAS BEEN MEASURED SO FAR.
OVERALL...EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THIS MORNINGS KSLE SOUNDING INDICATES A LAYER OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.
THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS OBSERVED SO
FAR. WHILE IT HAS NOT BEEN DEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SO WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INHERITED.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RIDE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE WX MENTION WAS SWITCHED OVER
FROM BRIEF SPRINKLES TO A MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN IT APPEARS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL STAND A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST...AND LIKELY LOWEST TOWARDS
THE CASCADES. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL FRONT
WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SO POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EC PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH
IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. THIS REMAINS THE MAIN REASON WE DO NOT HAVE HIGHER POPS IN
THE FORECAST THAN PERHAPS IT WOULD APPEAR WE SHOULD GIVEN NAM AND
GFS QPF FIELDS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS SPREAD SOME
LIGHT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE LIGHT
MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 75 TO
80 RANGE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER AREA
OF VORTICITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD IN MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME WITH CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND SOME
SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW CENTER THEN TENDS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SCATTERED ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LIKELY IN
THE OREGON CASCADES.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRYING AND
SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER. THERE IS ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH...FINALLY CLEARING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
START TO RISE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES WILL TEND TO SPREAD
OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EAST WINDS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SMOKE BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A
RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR PERSISTS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME LIGHT RAIN PUSHED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE.
WILL SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING IN
VALLEYS TO E AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES
EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND LESS
THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING
PERIODS...FROM THE NW...W AND SW. EXPECT NW SWELL TO DOMINATE
TODAY AT AROUND 15 SECONDS. OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT...WITH
HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 171634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE HAZY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION
COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO
EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE REGION IN DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON THIS MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
CONSIST OF VIRGA. HOWEVER...EVERY NOW AND AGAIN...A STRONGER BAND OF
SHOWERS IS PRODUCES SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE. THESE HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE PERSISTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE
AN OCCASIONAL HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH HAS BEEN MEASURED SO FAR.
OVERALL...EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THIS MORNINGS KSLE SOUNDING INDICATES A LAYER OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.
THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS OBSERVED SO
FAR. WHILE IT HAS NOT BEEN DEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SO WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INHERITED.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RIDE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE WX MENTION WAS SWITCHED OVER
FROM BRIEF SPRINKLES TO A MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN IT APPEARS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL STAND A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST...AND LIKELY LOWEST TOWARDS
THE CASCADES. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL FRONT
WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SO POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EC PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH
IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. THIS REMAINS THE MAIN REASON WE DO NOT HAVE HIGHER POPS IN
THE FORECAST THAN PERHAPS IT WOULD APPEAR WE SHOULD GIVEN NAM AND
GFS QPF FIELDS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS SPREAD SOME
LIGHT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE LIGHT
MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 75 TO
80 RANGE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER AREA
OF VORTICITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD IN MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME WITH CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND SOME
SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW CENTER THEN TENDS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SCATTERED ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LIKELY IN
THE OREGON CASCADES.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRYING AND
SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER. THERE IS ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH...FINALLY CLEARING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
START TO RISE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES WILL TEND TO SPREAD
OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EAST WINDS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SMOKE BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A
RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR PERSISTS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME LIGHT RAIN PUSHED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE.
WILL SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING IN
VALLEYS TO E AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES
EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND LESS
THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING
PERIODS...FROM THE NW...W AND SW. EXPECT NW SWELL TO DOMINATE
TODAY AT AROUND 15 SECONDS. OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT...WITH
HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 171634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE HAZY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION
COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO
EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE REGION IN DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON THIS MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
CONSIST OF VIRGA. HOWEVER...EVERY NOW AND AGAIN...A STRONGER BAND OF
SHOWERS IS PRODUCES SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE. THESE HIGH BASED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE PERSISTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE
AN OCCASIONAL HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH HAS BEEN MEASURED SO FAR.
OVERALL...EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THIS MORNINGS KSLE SOUNDING INDICATES A LAYER OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.
THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS OBSERVED SO
FAR. WHILE IT HAS NOT BEEN DEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SO WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INHERITED.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RIDE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE WX MENTION WAS SWITCHED OVER
FROM BRIEF SPRINKLES TO A MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN IT APPEARS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL STAND A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST...AND LIKELY LOWEST TOWARDS
THE CASCADES. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL FRONT
WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SO POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EC PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH
IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. THIS REMAINS THE MAIN REASON WE DO NOT HAVE HIGHER POPS IN
THE FORECAST THAN PERHAPS IT WOULD APPEAR WE SHOULD GIVEN NAM AND
GFS QPF FIELDS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS SPREAD SOME
LIGHT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE LIGHT
MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 75 TO
80 RANGE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER AREA
OF VORTICITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD IN MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME WITH CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND SOME
SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW CENTER THEN TENDS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SCATTERED ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LIKELY IN
THE OREGON CASCADES.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRYING AND
SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER. THERE IS ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH...FINALLY CLEARING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
START TO RISE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES WILL TEND TO SPREAD
OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EAST WINDS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SMOKE BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A
RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR PERSISTS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME LIGHT RAIN PUSHED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE.
WILL SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING IN
VALLEYS TO E AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES
EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND LESS
THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING
PERIODS...FROM THE NW...W AND SW. EXPECT NW SWELL TO DOMINATE
TODAY AT AROUND 15 SECONDS. OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT...WITH
HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 171549 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHING WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OFF THE W COAST
IS SPREADING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO WRN WA THIS
MORNING. THE RADAR LOOKS ACTIVE BUT OBS SO FAR ARE NOT SHOWING ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE BRIGHTER CLOUD TOPS ON IR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE COASTAL RADAR IMPLIES THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
OFF THE COAST AND LIFTING NWD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THING
MEASURABLE THIS MORNING WILL BE TOWARD THE COAST AND MAYBE A
SPRINKLE INLAND. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE
DAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PUSHES THE
SYSTEM INLAND. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED
TO INCREASE POPS TONIGHT AND ALSO TO BOOST POPS FOR THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINS AS THESE AREAS SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY GET MEASURABLE
RAIN.

THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM GETS CUT OFF THURSDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE. THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE...ONSHORE FLOW...AND WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MOUNTAINS STILL LIKELY TO GET RAIN IN THIS WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. SOME MESO MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF CONVERGENCE ZONE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING
WELL ORGANIZED. WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER TRAILING WAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT VERY STRONG AND IS BARELY REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM WEAKENING WITH JUST THE REMNANTS
FROM THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS SO THE CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 5850
METERS SATURDAY. NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OVER ID ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SKINNY WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EARLIER MODELS HELD THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE IT JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT MAY BRING SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING OFFSHORE
TODAY...SENDING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN WA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS SOUTHERLY WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WEAK LIFT OVER THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWS MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. 33

KSEA...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY TODAY BUT CIGS/VIS WILL REMAIN
AT VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SLY EARLY THU MORNING.
33

&&

.MARINE...A 997 MB LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND INLAND ON
THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN WA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
















000
FXUS66 KSEW 171549 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHING WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OFF THE W COAST
IS SPREADING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO WRN WA THIS
MORNING. THE RADAR LOOKS ACTIVE BUT OBS SO FAR ARE NOT SHOWING ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE BRIGHTER CLOUD TOPS ON IR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE COASTAL RADAR IMPLIES THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
OFF THE COAST AND LIFTING NWD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THING
MEASURABLE THIS MORNING WILL BE TOWARD THE COAST AND MAYBE A
SPRINKLE INLAND. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE
DAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PUSHES THE
SYSTEM INLAND. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED
TO INCREASE POPS TONIGHT AND ALSO TO BOOST POPS FOR THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINS AS THESE AREAS SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY GET MEASURABLE
RAIN.

THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM GETS CUT OFF THURSDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE. THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE...ONSHORE FLOW...AND WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MOUNTAINS STILL LIKELY TO GET RAIN IN THIS WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. SOME MESO MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF CONVERGENCE ZONE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING
WELL ORGANIZED. WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER TRAILING WAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT VERY STRONG AND IS BARELY REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM WEAKENING WITH JUST THE REMNANTS
FROM THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS SO THE CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 5850
METERS SATURDAY. NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OVER ID ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SKINNY WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EARLIER MODELS HELD THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE IT JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT MAY BRING SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING OFFSHORE
TODAY...SENDING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN WA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS SOUTHERLY WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WEAK LIFT OVER THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWS MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. 33

KSEA...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY TODAY BUT CIGS/VIS WILL REMAIN
AT VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SLY EARLY THU MORNING.
33

&&

.MARINE...A 997 MB LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND INLAND ON
THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN WA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
















000
FXUS66 KSEW 171549 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHING WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OFF THE W COAST
IS SPREADING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO WRN WA THIS
MORNING. THE RADAR LOOKS ACTIVE BUT OBS SO FAR ARE NOT SHOWING ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE BRIGHTER CLOUD TOPS ON IR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE COASTAL RADAR IMPLIES THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
OFF THE COAST AND LIFTING NWD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THING
MEASURABLE THIS MORNING WILL BE TOWARD THE COAST AND MAYBE A
SPRINKLE INLAND. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE
DAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PUSHES THE
SYSTEM INLAND. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED
TO INCREASE POPS TONIGHT AND ALSO TO BOOST POPS FOR THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINS AS THESE AREAS SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY GET MEASURABLE
RAIN.

THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM GETS CUT OFF THURSDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE. THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE...ONSHORE FLOW...AND WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MOUNTAINS STILL LIKELY TO GET RAIN IN THIS WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. SOME MESO MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF CONVERGENCE ZONE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING
WELL ORGANIZED. WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER TRAILING WAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT VERY STRONG AND IS BARELY REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM WEAKENING WITH JUST THE REMNANTS
FROM THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS SO THE CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 5850
METERS SATURDAY. NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OVER ID ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SKINNY WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EARLIER MODELS HELD THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE IT JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT MAY BRING SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING OFFSHORE
TODAY...SENDING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN WA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS SOUTHERLY WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WEAK LIFT OVER THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWS MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. 33

KSEA...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY TODAY BUT CIGS/VIS WILL REMAIN
AT VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SLY EARLY THU MORNING.
33

&&

.MARINE...A 997 MB LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND INLAND ON
THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN WA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
















000
FXUS66 KSEW 171549 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHING WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OFF THE W COAST
IS SPREADING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO WRN WA THIS
MORNING. THE RADAR LOOKS ACTIVE BUT OBS SO FAR ARE NOT SHOWING ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE BRIGHTER CLOUD TOPS ON IR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE COASTAL RADAR IMPLIES THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
OFF THE COAST AND LIFTING NWD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THING
MEASURABLE THIS MORNING WILL BE TOWARD THE COAST AND MAYBE A
SPRINKLE INLAND. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE
DAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PUSHES THE
SYSTEM INLAND. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED
TO INCREASE POPS TONIGHT AND ALSO TO BOOST POPS FOR THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINS AS THESE AREAS SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY GET MEASURABLE
RAIN.

THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM GETS CUT OFF THURSDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE. THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE...ONSHORE FLOW...AND WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MOUNTAINS STILL LIKELY TO GET RAIN IN THIS WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. SOME MESO MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF CONVERGENCE ZONE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING
WELL ORGANIZED. WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER TRAILING WAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT VERY STRONG AND IS BARELY REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM WEAKENING WITH JUST THE REMNANTS
FROM THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS SO THE CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 5850
METERS SATURDAY. NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OVER ID ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SKINNY WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EARLIER MODELS HELD THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE IT JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT MAY BRING SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING OFFSHORE
TODAY...SENDING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN WA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS SOUTHERLY WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WEAK LIFT OVER THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWS MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. 33

KSEA...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY TODAY BUT CIGS/VIS WILL REMAIN
AT VFR. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SLY EARLY THU MORNING.
33

&&

.MARINE...A 997 MB LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND INLAND ON
THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN WA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
















000
FXUS66 KOTX 171127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is in store for the Inland Northwest with
afternoon temperatures in the 80s. A weak cold front will move
through Washington and Idaho on Thursday. The front will push
temperatures closer to normal and bring the potential for widely
scattered showers on Thursday. A high pressure ridge will return
Friday and promote warm and dry weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...The weather pattern will become
more unsettled across the Inland Northwest as the ridge of high
pressure gets nudged to the east by an approaching upper trough.
Regional radar imagery shows some light returns moving northeast
across western WA this morning. The trajectory is more north than
east so shower activity is expected to remain close to the Cascade
crest today although there may be some sprinkles for the Wenatchee
area and the Okanogan Highlands today. The energy associated with
this system is splitting, with the bulk of it remaining in the
southern stream as a low closes off and drifts south along the
west coast. The secondary northern stream will eventually slide
east tonight, bringing some showers to the northern mountains. The
better chance for showers and even a few thunderstorms will be
across the eastern half of the forecast area on Thursday. The
north-south orientation of the trough will allow the very warm air
to remain in place today. Max temperatures will be close to
Tuesdays readings, which are about 10m degrees above seasonal
normals. A cold front will move through late in the day Thursday
bringing cooler conditions but the timing will mean one more day
of above normal temps. Breezy conditions will develop behind the
front with gusts to around 25 mph across the basin. Drier air
behind the front will limit any lingering showers to the Idaho
panhandle Thursday night. /Kelch

Friday through Sunday: The models are in very good agreement
Friday through the weekend...developing a rex block type feature
over the Western U.S. Some residual mid-level moisture in the
northwest flow may produce a small chance for showers over the
mountains of the north Idaho Panhandle and Cascade Crest on Friday.
However, model soundings suggest warming and drying aloft will
limit precipitation chances to the morning hours. Increasing 500mb
heights Friday afternoon into the weekend will shunt the storm
track well north of the region. Above average temperatures will
return by Saturday. Afternoon readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s
will be common Saturday, and Sunday will likely feature mid 80s to
upper 80s. The last weekend on the official summer calendar will
actually feel like summer. Fall officially arrives on Monday the
22nd with the autumn equinox. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday: This is shaping up to be a transition
period for the region as a trough system will begin to press into
the region from the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge pattern will linger
over the region Monday through Tuesday. This will allow for
precip free period. By late Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown
and moisture begins to push over the Cascades area. The precip
will continue to cross the Inland Northwest into through
Wednesday. Winds are expected to become breezy as the trough
moves through the region. Temperatures are expected to decrease
to near season normals. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south today. A cold front
will move through the forecast area Thursday. Middle and high
level clouds will thicken with a slight chance of showers for the
Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip by EAT between 09-15Z, but
better chance comes after 06Z Thursday. Some smoke from near
wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR conditions around PUW and LWS
Wednesday morning. Otherwise look for VFR, dry conditions. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        84  58  80  56  76  51 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  85  55  80  55  76  50 /  10  10  30  30  10   0
Pullman        86  54  80  53  76  49 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Lewiston       91  62  86  59  82  56 /  10   0  20  20  10   0
Colville       85  54  81  51  80  47 /  10  20  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      80  49  75  51  73  46 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Kellogg        83  54  76  53  72  50 /  10  10  30  30  20   0
Moses Lake     88  59  85  56  84  52 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      87  64  82  61  83  58 /  10  20  20  10   0   0
Omak           88  60  82  55  82  49 /  10  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 171127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is in store for the Inland Northwest with
afternoon temperatures in the 80s. A weak cold front will move
through Washington and Idaho on Thursday. The front will push
temperatures closer to normal and bring the potential for widely
scattered showers on Thursday. A high pressure ridge will return
Friday and promote warm and dry weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...The weather pattern will become
more unsettled across the Inland Northwest as the ridge of high
pressure gets nudged to the east by an approaching upper trough.
Regional radar imagery shows some light returns moving northeast
across western WA this morning. The trajectory is more north than
east so shower activity is expected to remain close to the Cascade
crest today although there may be some sprinkles for the Wenatchee
area and the Okanogan Highlands today. The energy associated with
this system is splitting, with the bulk of it remaining in the
southern stream as a low closes off and drifts south along the
west coast. The secondary northern stream will eventually slide
east tonight, bringing some showers to the northern mountains. The
better chance for showers and even a few thunderstorms will be
across the eastern half of the forecast area on Thursday. The
north-south orientation of the trough will allow the very warm air
to remain in place today. Max temperatures will be close to
Tuesdays readings, which are about 10m degrees above seasonal
normals. A cold front will move through late in the day Thursday
bringing cooler conditions but the timing will mean one more day
of above normal temps. Breezy conditions will develop behind the
front with gusts to around 25 mph across the basin. Drier air
behind the front will limit any lingering showers to the Idaho
panhandle Thursday night. /Kelch

Friday through Sunday: The models are in very good agreement
Friday through the weekend...developing a rex block type feature
over the Western U.S. Some residual mid-level moisture in the
northwest flow may produce a small chance for showers over the
mountains of the north Idaho Panhandle and Cascade Crest on Friday.
However, model soundings suggest warming and drying aloft will
limit precipitation chances to the morning hours. Increasing 500mb
heights Friday afternoon into the weekend will shunt the storm
track well north of the region. Above average temperatures will
return by Saturday. Afternoon readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s
will be common Saturday, and Sunday will likely feature mid 80s to
upper 80s. The last weekend on the official summer calendar will
actually feel like summer. Fall officially arrives on Monday the
22nd with the autumn equinox. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday: This is shaping up to be a transition
period for the region as a trough system will begin to press into
the region from the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge pattern will linger
over the region Monday through Tuesday. This will allow for
precip free period. By late Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown
and moisture begins to push over the Cascades area. The precip
will continue to cross the Inland Northwest into through
Wednesday. Winds are expected to become breezy as the trough
moves through the region. Temperatures are expected to decrease
to near season normals. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south today. A cold front
will move through the forecast area Thursday. Middle and high
level clouds will thicken with a slight chance of showers for the
Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip by EAT between 09-15Z, but
better chance comes after 06Z Thursday. Some smoke from near
wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR conditions around PUW and LWS
Wednesday morning. Otherwise look for VFR, dry conditions. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        84  58  80  56  76  51 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  85  55  80  55  76  50 /  10  10  30  30  10   0
Pullman        86  54  80  53  76  49 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Lewiston       91  62  86  59  82  56 /  10   0  20  20  10   0
Colville       85  54  81  51  80  47 /  10  20  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      80  49  75  51  73  46 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Kellogg        83  54  76  53  72  50 /  10  10  30  30  20   0
Moses Lake     88  59  85  56  84  52 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      87  64  82  61  83  58 /  10  20  20  10   0   0
Omak           88  60  82  55  82  49 /  10  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 170957
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND A FEW SURGES OF LIGHT MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY. THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID THE FORMATION OF MORE SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN PART OF THE LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE LOW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST THIS
WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP THE COAST AGAIN...FOR A RETURN
OF DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS BY MID
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND
DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS SPREAD SOME
LIGHT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE LIGHT
MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 75 TO
80 RANGE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER AREA
OF VORTICITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD IN MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME WITH CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND SOME
SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW CENTER THEN TENDS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SCATTERED ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LIKELY IN
THE OREGON CASCADES.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRYING AND
SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER. THERE IS ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH...FINALLY CLEARING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
START TO RISE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES WILL TEND TO SPREAD
OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EAST WINDS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SMOKE BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A
RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PROVIDING FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH QUITE WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT...THOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG IN BAYS AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE. WILL
SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY
AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING IN VALLEYS TO E
AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...SMOKE FROM
FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT N TO NE...AFFECTING
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH CIGS LIKELY FORMING
IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND LESS THAN
15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...
FROM THE NW...W AND SW. EXPECT NW SWELL TO DOMINATE TODAY AT AROUND
15 SECONDS. OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER
OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL LOW
PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 170957
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND A FEW SURGES OF LIGHT MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY. THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID THE FORMATION OF MORE SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN PART OF THE LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE LOW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST THIS
WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP THE COAST AGAIN...FOR A RETURN
OF DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS BY MID
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND
DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS SPREAD SOME
LIGHT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE LIGHT
MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 75 TO
80 RANGE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER AREA
OF VORTICITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD IN MAINLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIME WITH CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND SOME
SMALL AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE MAIN LOW CENTER THEN TENDS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
SCATTERED ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LIKELY IN
THE OREGON CASCADES.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRYING AND
SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER. THERE IS ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING...
THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH...FINALLY CLEARING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
START TO RISE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES WILL TEND TO SPREAD
OUT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EAST WINDS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SMOKE BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SHOW A
RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PROVIDING FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH QUITE WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT...THOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG IN BAYS AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE. WILL
SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY
AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING IN VALLEYS TO E
AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...SMOKE FROM
FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT N TO NE...AFFECTING
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH CIGS LIKELY FORMING
IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND LESS THAN
15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...
FROM THE NW...W AND SW. EXPECT NW SWELL TO DOMINATE TODAY AT AROUND
15 SECONDS. OVERALL SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER
OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL LOW
PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 170957 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO 3RD PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHING WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE ALONG 135W THIS
MORNING WILL BRING A SHOWERY PATTERN TO W WA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LOOKING LARGE BLOB OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE S FLOW ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...ALL
HEADED IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PACNW. DISORGANIZED AREAS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TO W WA THIS
MORNING. A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BAND WAS W OF THE CENTRAL/S OREGON
COAST AT 09Z/2 AM AND SHOULD REACH W WA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MOVING N WILL INITIALLY END UP W OF
THE COAST...BUT WILL END UP MOVING ACROSS W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE
WETTEST PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE COAST
AND N INTERIOR WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS AROUND THE PUGET SOUND
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER E WA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST MAY BRING ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW
FOR A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM. HOWEVER MESOSCALE MODELS
DO NOT OFFER A STRONG CASE FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THIS POINT.

W FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN KEPT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 5850 METERS SATURDAY. NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OVER ID ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SKINNY WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EARLIER MODELS HELD THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE IT JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT MAY BRING SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACNW TODAY. THERE IS
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND WITHOUT ONSHORE
FLOW IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE COAST
THIS MORNING.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TODAY AND THU AS A FAIRLY WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 170957 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO 3RD PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHING WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE ALONG 135W THIS
MORNING WILL BRING A SHOWERY PATTERN TO W WA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LOOKING LARGE BLOB OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE S FLOW ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...ALL
HEADED IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PACNW. DISORGANIZED AREAS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TO W WA THIS
MORNING. A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BAND WAS W OF THE CENTRAL/S OREGON
COAST AT 09Z/2 AM AND SHOULD REACH W WA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MOVING N WILL INITIALLY END UP W OF
THE COAST...BUT WILL END UP MOVING ACROSS W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE
WETTEST PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE COAST
AND N INTERIOR WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS AROUND THE PUGET SOUND
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER E WA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST MAY BRING ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW
FOR A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM. HOWEVER MESOSCALE MODELS
DO NOT OFFER A STRONG CASE FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THIS POINT.

W FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN KEPT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 5850 METERS SATURDAY. NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OVER ID ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SKINNY WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EARLIER MODELS HELD THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE IT JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT MAY BRING SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACNW TODAY. THERE IS
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND WITHOUT ONSHORE
FLOW IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE COAST
THIS MORNING.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TODAY AND THU AS A FAIRLY WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 170957 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO 3RD PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHING WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE ALONG 135W THIS
MORNING WILL BRING A SHOWERY PATTERN TO W WA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LOOKING LARGE BLOB OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE S FLOW ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...ALL
HEADED IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PACNW. DISORGANIZED AREAS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TO W WA THIS
MORNING. A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BAND WAS W OF THE CENTRAL/S OREGON
COAST AT 09Z/2 AM AND SHOULD REACH W WA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MOVING N WILL INITIALLY END UP W OF
THE COAST...BUT WILL END UP MOVING ACROSS W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE
WETTEST PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE COAST
AND N INTERIOR WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS AROUND THE PUGET SOUND
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER E WA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST MAY BRING ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW
FOR A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM. HOWEVER MESOSCALE MODELS
DO NOT OFFER A STRONG CASE FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THIS POINT.

W FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN KEPT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 5850 METERS SATURDAY. NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OVER ID ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SKINNY WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EARLIER MODELS HELD THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE IT JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT MAY BRING SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACNW TODAY. THERE IS
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND WITHOUT ONSHORE
FLOW IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE COAST
THIS MORNING.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TODAY AND THU AS A FAIRLY WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 170957 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO 3RD PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHING WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE ALONG 135W THIS
MORNING WILL BRING A SHOWERY PATTERN TO W WA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LOOKING LARGE BLOB OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE S FLOW ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...ALL
HEADED IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PACNW. DISORGANIZED AREAS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TO W WA THIS
MORNING. A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BAND WAS W OF THE CENTRAL/S OREGON
COAST AT 09Z/2 AM AND SHOULD REACH W WA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MOVING N WILL INITIALLY END UP W OF
THE COAST...BUT WILL END UP MOVING ACROSS W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE
WETTEST PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE COAST
AND N INTERIOR WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS AROUND THE PUGET SOUND
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER E WA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST MAY BRING ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW
FOR A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM. HOWEVER MESOSCALE MODELS
DO NOT OFFER A STRONG CASE FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THIS POINT.

W FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN KEPT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 5850 METERS SATURDAY. NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OVER ID ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SKINNY WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EARLIER MODELS HELD THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE IT JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT MAY BRING SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACNW TODAY. THERE IS
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND WITHOUT ONSHORE
FLOW IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE COAST
THIS MORNING.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TODAY AND THU AS A FAIRLY WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KOTX 170948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is in store for the Inland Northwest with
afternoon temperatures in the 80s. A weak cold front will move
through Washington and Idaho on Thursday. The front will push
temperatures closer to normal and bring the potential for widely
scattered showers on Thursday. A high pressure ridge will return
Friday and promote warm and dry weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...The weather pattern will become
more unsettled across the Inland Northwest as the ridge of high
pressure gets nudged to the east by an approaching upper trough.
Regional radar imagery shows some light returns moving northeast
across western WA this morning. The trajectory is more north than
east so shower activity is expected to remain close to the Cascade
crest today although there may be some sprinkles for the Wenatchee
area and the Okanogan Highlands today. The energy associated with
this system is splitting, with the bulk of it remaining in the
southern stream as a low closes off and drifts south along the
west coast. The secondary northern stream will eventually slide
east tonight, bringing some showers to the northern mountains. The
better chance for showers and even a few thunderstorms will be
across the eastern half of the forecast area on Thursday. The
north-south orientation of the trough will allow the very warm air
to remain in place today. Max temperatures will be close to
Tuesdays readings, which are about 10m degrees above seasonal
normals. A cold front will move through late in the day Thursday
bringing cooler conditions but the timing will mean one more day
of above normal temps. Breezy conditions will develop behind the
front with gusts to around 25 mph across the basin. Drier air
behind the front will limit any lingering showers to the Idaho
panhandle Thursday night. /Kelch

Friday through Sunday: The models are in very good agreement
Friday through the weekend...developing a rex block type feature
over the Western U.S. Some residual mid-level moisture in the
northwest flow may produce a small chance for showers over the
mountains of the north Idaho Panhandle and Cascade Crest on Friday.
However, model soundings suggest warming and drying aloft will
limit precipitation chances to the morning hours. Increasing 500mb
heights Friday afternoon into the weekend will shunt the storm
track well north of the region. Above average temperatures will
return by Saturday. Afternoon readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s
will be common Saturday, and Sunday will likely feature mid 80s to
upper 80s. The last weekend on the official summer calendar will
actually feel like summer. Fall officially arrives on Monday the
22nd with the autumn equinox. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday: This is shaping up to be a transition
period for the region as a trough system will begin to press into
the region from the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge pattern will linger
over the region Monday through Tuesday. This will allow for
precip free period. By late Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown
and moisture begins to push over the Cascades area. The precip
will continue to cross the Inland Northwest into through
Wednesday. Winds are expected to become breezy as the trough
moves through the region. Temperatures are expected to decrease
to near season normals. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south into Wednesday, while a cold
front approaches Wednesday night (into Thursday). Look for some
middle and high clouds, thickening especially Wednesday. A slight
chance of showers comes to the Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip
by EAT between 09-15Z, but somewhat better chances comes after
00Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) when the main system approaches.
Even then precipitation is not expected to be significant. Some
smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR conditions
around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look for VFR, dry
conditions. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        84  58  80  56  76  51 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  85  55  80  55  76  50 /  10  10  30  30  10   0
Pullman        86  54  80  53  76  49 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Lewiston       91  62  86  59  82  56 /  10   0  20  20  10   0
Colville       85  54  81  51  80  47 /  10  20  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      80  49  75  51  73  46 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Kellogg        83  54  76  53  72  50 /  10  10  30  30  20   0
Moses Lake     88  59  85  56  84  52 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      87  64  82  61  83  58 /  10  20  20  10   0   0
Omak           88  60  82  55  82  49 /  10  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 170948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is in store for the Inland Northwest with
afternoon temperatures in the 80s. A weak cold front will move
through Washington and Idaho on Thursday. The front will push
temperatures closer to normal and bring the potential for widely
scattered showers on Thursday. A high pressure ridge will return
Friday and promote warm and dry weather through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...The weather pattern will become
more unsettled across the Inland Northwest as the ridge of high
pressure gets nudged to the east by an approaching upper trough.
Regional radar imagery shows some light returns moving northeast
across western WA this morning. The trajectory is more north than
east so shower activity is expected to remain close to the Cascade
crest today although there may be some sprinkles for the Wenatchee
area and the Okanogan Highlands today. The energy associated with
this system is splitting, with the bulk of it remaining in the
southern stream as a low closes off and drifts south along the
west coast. The secondary northern stream will eventually slide
east tonight, bringing some showers to the northern mountains. The
better chance for showers and even a few thunderstorms will be
across the eastern half of the forecast area on Thursday. The
north-south orientation of the trough will allow the very warm air
to remain in place today. Max temperatures will be close to
Tuesdays readings, which are about 10m degrees above seasonal
normals. A cold front will move through late in the day Thursday
bringing cooler conditions but the timing will mean one more day
of above normal temps. Breezy conditions will develop behind the
front with gusts to around 25 mph across the basin. Drier air
behind the front will limit any lingering showers to the Idaho
panhandle Thursday night. /Kelch

Friday through Sunday: The models are in very good agreement
Friday through the weekend...developing a rex block type feature
over the Western U.S. Some residual mid-level moisture in the
northwest flow may produce a small chance for showers over the
mountains of the north Idaho Panhandle and Cascade Crest on Friday.
However, model soundings suggest warming and drying aloft will
limit precipitation chances to the morning hours. Increasing 500mb
heights Friday afternoon into the weekend will shunt the storm
track well north of the region. Above average temperatures will
return by Saturday. Afternoon readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s
will be common Saturday, and Sunday will likely feature mid 80s to
upper 80s. The last weekend on the official summer calendar will
actually feel like summer. Fall officially arrives on Monday the
22nd with the autumn equinox. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday: This is shaping up to be a transition
period for the region as a trough system will begin to press into
the region from the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge pattern will linger
over the region Monday through Tuesday. This will allow for
precip free period. By late Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown
and moisture begins to push over the Cascades area. The precip
will continue to cross the Inland Northwest into through
Wednesday. Winds are expected to become breezy as the trough
moves through the region. Temperatures are expected to decrease
to near season normals. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south into Wednesday, while a cold
front approaches Wednesday night (into Thursday). Look for some
middle and high clouds, thickening especially Wednesday. A slight
chance of showers comes to the Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip
by EAT between 09-15Z, but somewhat better chances comes after
00Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) when the main system approaches.
Even then precipitation is not expected to be significant. Some
smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR conditions
around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look for VFR, dry
conditions. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        84  58  80  56  76  51 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  85  55  80  55  76  50 /  10  10  30  30  10   0
Pullman        86  54  80  53  76  49 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Lewiston       91  62  86  59  82  56 /  10   0  20  20  10   0
Colville       85  54  81  51  80  47 /  10  20  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      80  49  75  51  73  46 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Kellogg        83  54  76  53  72  50 /  10  10  30  30  20   0
Moses Lake     88  59  85  56  84  52 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      87  64  82  61  83  58 /  10  20  20  10   0   0
Omak           88  60  82  55  82  49 /  10  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 170926
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHING WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE ALONG 135W THIS
MORNING WILL BRING A SHOWERY PATTERN TO W WA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LOOKING LARGE BLOB OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE S FLOW ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...ALL
HEADED IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PACNW. DISORGANIZED AREAS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TO W WA THIS
MORNING. A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BAND WAS W OF THE CENTRAL/S OREGON
COAST AT 09Z/2 AM AND SHOULD REACH W WA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MOVING N WILL INITIALLY END UP W OF
THE COAST...BUT WILL END UP MOVING ACROSS W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE
WETTEST PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE COAST
AND N INTERIOR WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS AROUND THE PUGET SOUND
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER E WA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST MAY BRING ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW
FOR A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM. HOWEVER MESOSCALE MODELS
DO NOT OFFER A STRONG CASE FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THIS POINT.

W FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN KEPT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 5850 METERS SATURDAY. NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OVER ID ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SKINNY WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EARLIER MODELS HELD THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE IT JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT MAY BRING SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACNW TODAY. THERE IS
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND WITHOUT ONSHORE
FLOW IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE COAST
THIS MORNING.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TODAY AND THU AS A FAIRLY WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 170926
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHING WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALLER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND WARM WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE ALONG 135W THIS
MORNING WILL BRING A SHOWERY PATTERN TO W WA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LOOKING LARGE BLOB OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE S FLOW ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...ALL
HEADED IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PACNW. DISORGANIZED AREAS OF
MOISTURE ARE ALREADY BRINGING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TO W WA THIS
MORNING. A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BAND WAS W OF THE CENTRAL/S OREGON
COAST AT 09Z/2 AM AND SHOULD REACH W WA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MOVING N WILL INITIALLY END UP W OF
THE COAST...BUT WILL END UP MOVING ACROSS W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE
WETTEST PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE COAST
AND N INTERIOR WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS AROUND THE PUGET SOUND
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER E WA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST MAY BRING ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW
FOR A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM. HOWEVER MESOSCALE MODELS
DO NOT OFFER A STRONG CASE FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THIS POINT.

W FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN KEPT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 5850 METERS SATURDAY. NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE WA COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OVER ID ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SKINNY WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EARLIER MODELS HELD THE FRONT OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE IT JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH...BUT THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT MAY BRING SOME RAIN BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACNW TODAY. THERE IS
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND WITHOUT ONSHORE
FLOW IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE COAST
THIS MORNING.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TODAY AND THU AS A FAIRLY WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KOTX 170525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain in a mild southwest flow through Wednesday,
with slight shower chances coming toward the Cascades and northern
mountains. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures follow the passage
of a weak cold front Thursday. Thursday will also be locally
breezy with a chance for light rain showers. More sunshine and
lighter winds return on Friday, with warmer temperatures this
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: watching some of the energy coming up through
Oregon and along the Pacific Northwest coast. Thicker clouds and
some radar returns showing up southwest of Portland and off the
Washington coast. Newest model runs, including the HRRR and the
Hi-res NAM, show some of this moisture sliding up north toward
the Cascades overnight into Wednesday morning. As such I added a
slight chance of showers toward the Cascades for after midnight,
mainly south of Lake Chelan, with the chances expanding northward
toward Canadian border by morning. Some sprinkles are possible
toward the lower elevations including the Wenatchee area,
Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley toward the Okanogan
Highlands as well. Otherwise I increased sky cover slightly.
Overnight lows and tomorrow afternoon`s highs generally look on
track. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south into Wednesday, while a cold
front approaches Wednesday night (into Thursday). Look for some
middle and high clouds, thickening especially Wednesday. A slight
chance of showers comes to the Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip
by EAT between 09-15Z, but somewhat better chances comes after
00Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) when the main system approaches.
Even then precipitation is not expected to be significant. Some
smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR conditions
around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look for VFR, dry
conditions. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  58  79  56  75 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  79  55  74 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Pullman        54  86  54  80  54  75 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  62  84  59  80 /  10  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       51  85  53  81  51  78 /   0  10  20  30  20  10
Sandpoint      47  79  49  75  52  71 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Kellogg        55  82  54  75  52  69 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     56  87  59  83  56  82 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      60  86  63  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           54  88  59  81  55  80 /   0  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 170525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain in a mild southwest flow through Wednesday,
with slight shower chances coming toward the Cascades and northern
mountains. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures follow the passage
of a weak cold front Thursday. Thursday will also be locally
breezy with a chance for light rain showers. More sunshine and
lighter winds return on Friday, with warmer temperatures this
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: watching some of the energy coming up through
Oregon and along the Pacific Northwest coast. Thicker clouds and
some radar returns showing up southwest of Portland and off the
Washington coast. Newest model runs, including the HRRR and the
Hi-res NAM, show some of this moisture sliding up north toward
the Cascades overnight into Wednesday morning. As such I added a
slight chance of showers toward the Cascades for after midnight,
mainly south of Lake Chelan, with the chances expanding northward
toward Canadian border by morning. Some sprinkles are possible
toward the lower elevations including the Wenatchee area,
Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley toward the Okanogan
Highlands as well. Otherwise I increased sky cover slightly.
Overnight lows and tomorrow afternoon`s highs generally look on
track. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south into Wednesday, while a cold
front approaches Wednesday night (into Thursday). Look for some
middle and high clouds, thickening especially Wednesday. A slight
chance of showers comes to the Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip
by EAT between 09-15Z, but somewhat better chances comes after
00Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) when the main system approaches.
Even then precipitation is not expected to be significant. Some
smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR conditions
around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look for VFR, dry
conditions. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  58  79  56  75 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  79  55  74 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Pullman        54  86  54  80  54  75 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  62  84  59  80 /  10  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       51  85  53  81  51  78 /   0  10  20  30  20  10
Sandpoint      47  79  49  75  52  71 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Kellogg        55  82  54  75  52  69 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     56  87  59  83  56  82 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      60  86  63  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           54  88  59  81  55  80 /   0  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 170525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain in a mild southwest flow through Wednesday,
with slight shower chances coming toward the Cascades and northern
mountains. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures follow the passage
of a weak cold front Thursday. Thursday will also be locally
breezy with a chance for light rain showers. More sunshine and
lighter winds return on Friday, with warmer temperatures this
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: watching some of the energy coming up through
Oregon and along the Pacific Northwest coast. Thicker clouds and
some radar returns showing up southwest of Portland and off the
Washington coast. Newest model runs, including the HRRR and the
Hi-res NAM, show some of this moisture sliding up north toward
the Cascades overnight into Wednesday morning. As such I added a
slight chance of showers toward the Cascades for after midnight,
mainly south of Lake Chelan, with the chances expanding northward
toward Canadian border by morning. Some sprinkles are possible
toward the lower elevations including the Wenatchee area,
Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley toward the Okanogan
Highlands as well. Otherwise I increased sky cover slightly.
Overnight lows and tomorrow afternoon`s highs generally look on
track. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south into Wednesday, while a cold
front approaches Wednesday night (into Thursday). Look for some
middle and high clouds, thickening especially Wednesday. A slight
chance of showers comes to the Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip
by EAT between 09-15Z, but somewhat better chances comes after
00Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) when the main system approaches.
Even then precipitation is not expected to be significant. Some
smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR conditions
around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look for VFR, dry
conditions. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  58  79  56  75 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  79  55  74 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Pullman        54  86  54  80  54  75 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  62  84  59  80 /  10  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       51  85  53  81  51  78 /   0  10  20  30  20  10
Sandpoint      47  79  49  75  52  71 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Kellogg        55  82  54  75  52  69 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     56  87  59  83  56  82 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      60  86  63  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           54  88  59  81  55  80 /   0  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 170525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain in a mild southwest flow through Wednesday,
with slight shower chances coming toward the Cascades and northern
mountains. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures follow the passage
of a weak cold front Thursday. Thursday will also be locally
breezy with a chance for light rain showers. More sunshine and
lighter winds return on Friday, with warmer temperatures this
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: watching some of the energy coming up through
Oregon and along the Pacific Northwest coast. Thicker clouds and
some radar returns showing up southwest of Portland and off the
Washington coast. Newest model runs, including the HRRR and the
Hi-res NAM, show some of this moisture sliding up north toward
the Cascades overnight into Wednesday morning. As such I added a
slight chance of showers toward the Cascades for after midnight,
mainly south of Lake Chelan, with the chances expanding northward
toward Canadian border by morning. Some sprinkles are possible
toward the lower elevations including the Wenatchee area,
Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley toward the Okanogan
Highlands as well. Otherwise I increased sky cover slightly.
Overnight lows and tomorrow afternoon`s highs generally look on
track. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south into Wednesday, while a cold
front approaches Wednesday night (into Thursday). Look for some
middle and high clouds, thickening especially Wednesday. A slight
chance of showers comes to the Cascades. A few sprinkles may slip
by EAT between 09-15Z, but somewhat better chances comes after
00Z Thursday (Wednesday evening) when the main system approaches.
Even then precipitation is not expected to be significant. Some
smoke from near wildfires may lower VIS toward MVFR conditions
around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise look for VFR, dry
conditions. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  58  79  56  75 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  79  55  74 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Pullman        54  86  54  80  54  75 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  62  84  59  80 /  10  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       51  85  53  81  51  78 /   0  10  20  30  20  10
Sandpoint      47  79  49  75  52  71 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Kellogg        55  82  54  75  52  69 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     56  87  59  83  56  82 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      60  86  63  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           54  88  59  81  55  80 /   0  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 170333
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
832 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT...ALREADY SEEING SOME
ECHOES ON RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING BUT ITS STILL MOST LIKELY VIRGA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HITTING THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY REACH THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
SEE PATCHY LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR NEWPORT. OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SPREADS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. /27

THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
SMOKE. CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWN RIVER OF THESE FIRES LIKE ESTACADA AND OAKRIDGE TO EXPERIENCE
PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEK.
FORTUNATELY...WEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DISPERSE
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FIRES ARE GENERALLY MOST ACTIVE....TO THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON STATE LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPLITTING AND NOSE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MESSY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN WRINGING OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD INTO THE LOW
END LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE TOPOGRAPHY...AND
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AMPLE ON THURSDAY...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT...CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY SOLID THURSDAY SO LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO REMAIN NERVOUS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM TO TRY AND
BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL.

FOR FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING
TREND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A RETURN TO
EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT
BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE
DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND
BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...RATHER TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. ONSHORE GRADIENT IS QUITE LIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG IN BAYS AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS TONIGHT. WILL SEE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON WED...ALONG WITH A SHOWER OR TWO.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE.
WILL SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN FAR EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING
IN VALLEYS TO E AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT
FEW DAYS...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIF WILL DRIFT
N TO NE...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON WED.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING
PERIODS...PREDOMINATELY FROM THE W AT AROUND 15 SEC. OVERALL SEAS
RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 170333
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
832 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT...ALREADY SEEING SOME
ECHOES ON RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING BUT ITS STILL MOST LIKELY VIRGA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HITTING THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY REACH THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
SEE PATCHY LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR NEWPORT. OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SPREADS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. /27

THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
SMOKE. CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWN RIVER OF THESE FIRES LIKE ESTACADA AND OAKRIDGE TO EXPERIENCE
PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEK.
FORTUNATELY...WEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DISPERSE
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FIRES ARE GENERALLY MOST ACTIVE....TO THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON STATE LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPLITTING AND NOSE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MESSY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN WRINGING OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD INTO THE LOW
END LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE TOPOGRAPHY...AND
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AMPLE ON THURSDAY...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT...CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY SOLID THURSDAY SO LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO REMAIN NERVOUS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM TO TRY AND
BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL.

FOR FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING
TREND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A RETURN TO
EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT
BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE
DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND
BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...RATHER TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. ONSHORE GRADIENT IS QUITE LIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG IN BAYS AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS TONIGHT. WILL SEE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON WED...ALONG WITH A SHOWER OR TWO.

SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT FIRE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE E AND NE.
WILL SEE SMOKE CONTINUE IN FAR EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...WITH SOME SMOKE TRAPPED SETTLING
IN VALLEYS TO E AND N OF THE FIRE. WITH S WINDS ALOFT OVER NEXT
FEW DAYS...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIF WILL DRIFT
N TO NE...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON WED.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING
PERIODS...PREDOMINATELY FROM THE W AT AROUND 15 SEC. OVERALL SEAS
RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 170331
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
831 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain in a mild southwest flow through Wednesday,
with slight shower chances coming toward the Cascades and northern
mountains. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures follow the passage
of a weak cold front Thursday. Thursday will also be locally
breezy with a chance for light rain showers. More sunshine and
lighter winds return on Friday, with warmer temperatures this
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: watching some of the energy coming up through
Oregon and along the Pacific Northwest coast. Thicker clouds and
some radar returns showing up southwest of Portland and off the
Washington coast. Newest model runs, including the HRRR and the
Hi-res NAM, show some of this moisture sliding up north toward
the Cascades overnight into Wednesday morning. As such I added a
slight chance of showers toward the Cascades for after midnight,
mainly south of Lake Chelan, with the chances expanding northward
toward Canadian border by morning. Some sprinkles are possible
toward the lower elevations including the Wenatchee area,
Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley toward the Okanogan
Highlands as well. Otherwise I increased sky cover slightly.
Overnight lows and tomorrow afternoon`s highs generally look on
track. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south. Look for some middle and
high clouds, thickening especially Wednesday. A slight chance of
showers comes toward the Cascades...mainly after 12-18Z. Some
smoke from nearby wildfires may also lower VIS toward MVFR
conditions, mainly around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise
look for VFR, dry conditions. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  58  79  56  75 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  79  55  74 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Pullman        54  86  54  80  54  75 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  62  84  59  80 /  10  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       51  85  53  81  51  78 /   0  10  20  30  20  10
Sandpoint      47  79  49  75  52  71 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Kellogg        55  82  54  75  52  69 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     56  87  59  83  56  82 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      60  86  63  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           54  88  59  81  55  80 /   0  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 170331
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
831 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain in a mild southwest flow through Wednesday,
with slight shower chances coming toward the Cascades and northern
mountains. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures follow the passage
of a weak cold front Thursday. Thursday will also be locally
breezy with a chance for light rain showers. More sunshine and
lighter winds return on Friday, with warmer temperatures this
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: watching some of the energy coming up through
Oregon and along the Pacific Northwest coast. Thicker clouds and
some radar returns showing up southwest of Portland and off the
Washington coast. Newest model runs, including the HRRR and the
Hi-res NAM, show some of this moisture sliding up north toward
the Cascades overnight into Wednesday morning. As such I added a
slight chance of showers toward the Cascades for after midnight,
mainly south of Lake Chelan, with the chances expanding northward
toward Canadian border by morning. Some sprinkles are possible
toward the lower elevations including the Wenatchee area,
Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley toward the Okanogan
Highlands as well. Otherwise I increased sky cover slightly.
Overnight lows and tomorrow afternoon`s highs generally look on
track. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south. Look for some middle and
high clouds, thickening especially Wednesday. A slight chance of
showers comes toward the Cascades...mainly after 12-18Z. Some
smoke from nearby wildfires may also lower VIS toward MVFR
conditions, mainly around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise
look for VFR, dry conditions. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  58  79  56  75 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  79  55  74 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Pullman        54  86  54  80  54  75 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  62  84  59  80 /  10  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       51  85  53  81  51  78 /   0  10  20  30  20  10
Sandpoint      47  79  49  75  52  71 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Kellogg        55  82  54  75  52  69 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     56  87  59  83  56  82 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      60  86  63  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           54  88  59  81  55  80 /   0  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 170328
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHER
PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND FOR
A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING 135W FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING WITH THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THE KSLE AND KUIL
RAOBS SHOW THE AIR MASS IS GETTING MORE MOIST - PRIMED IF YOU WISH.
WILL UPDATE THE EVENING FORECAST TO REFLECT A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS NOW MAINLY WEST TO EAST WITH STRONGER
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES. WITH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
PRESENT...MARINE CLOUDS WED MORNING WILL LIKELY BE MORE LIMITED IN
BOTH SPACE AND TIME.

00Z PROGS IN THUS FAR CONTINUE THE TREND OF TRACKING THE UPPER
TROUGH ONSHORE BY THU THOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME. BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM 06Z-18Z THURSDAY. THEN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT WHAT SHOWERS ARE LEFT IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WERE DOWN ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES FROM MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW MID SEPTEMBER
SEASONAL READINGS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY MUCH FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC SHOWS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE NEAR 150E THAT IS EXPECTED TO ZIP UNDER THE
ALEUTIAN UPPER LOW AND HELP BUILD RIDGING OVER OUR REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW. MODEL HEIGHTS ARE IN
THE MID 580S. THIS IS A SUNNY AND WARM PATTERN. FOR NOW HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD 80S. ON MONDAY SURFACE FLOW TURNS WEAKLY
ONSHORE AND HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
MONDAY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS IN THE TUESDAY FORECAST. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACNW WED. SW FLOW
ALOFT WITH MAINLY INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS MAINLY ON
THE COAST...BUT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS MAY PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR BY DAYBREAK WED.

KSEA...MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS...INCREASING AND THICKENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE COAST...BUT IF IT MAKES IT
ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR THREE HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING WED.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WED AND THU
AS WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
WEAK. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AND SUN WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS
DEVELOPING AT THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KOTX 170010
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
510 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Thursday. Thursday
will also be locally breezy with a chance for light rain showers.
Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look for warm
temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday: Currently a weak wave is still in the
process of passing through the area that has shifted our ridge of
high pressure eastward now over western Montana. This initial
eastward shift is the first hit of the eventual ridge breakdown
later in the week. As of 2pm, weak echos on radar were being
indicated on a line from Omak to Coolin and areas slightly south.
The echos were likely due to weak forcing associated with the
passing wave. Not much in the way of precipitation is reaching the
surface as indicated by observations, so the majority is likely
attributed to virga or very light showers. Moving through the
afternoon and into the evening I anticipate the wave to continue
to push north with only virga or some very light showers the
continued extent.

Overnight we can expect mainly calm conditions as we await the next
more potent storm system later Wednesday. Starting as early as
tonight we will start to see some moisture filtering in ahead of
the main system allowing for increased cloud cover. This should
help to keep our overnight temperatures from falling as much as
previous nights. Tomorrow brings another warm day to the region
as we remain firmly entrenched within the mild southwesterly flow
pattern. Overall we can expect similar conditions as today with
warm temperatures and filtered mid and high clouds. As we move
into the afternoon is when the front end of the approaching system
finally reaches the Cascades. Tomorrow afternoon is when the
mention of precipitation enters the forecast for these areas.
Overall this is a rather low impact portion of the forecast as we
await the main incoming system. /Fliehman

Wednesday night through Friday night...A splitting trough will
move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. The best
dynamics and moisture will remain south in Oregon/NorCal with a
secondary wave area moving through central/southern B.C. The front
that will accompany the splitting trough is not overly strong.
Southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday will increase the usable
moisture with Precipitable waters going up to nearly an inch,
which is well above normal. The models have been in decent
agreement indicating the best instability and moisture will move
through my southeast zones Thursday afternoon. Showers will be
possible for all the higher terrain outside of the Columbia basin
and the Palouse...the focus will be from southern Shoshone county
then following the higher terrain north over the northern
Panhandle and west into the northeast mountains. In these area
there will be a chance of showers and the possibility of some
embedded thunderstorms. Instability parameters indicate no real
organization to the thunderstorms and we are expecting just a few
pulse type storms.

The surface gradient will tighten through the day Thursday and
the 850mb winds around 20 kts should easily mix down to the
surface. This will result in breezy southwest winds with gusts up
to 25 mph across the basin, Palouse and Spokane area.

High pressure will rebuild back into the area quickly on Friday
and Saturday. Northwest flow on Friday will keep conditions dry
with temperatures cooling down several degrees but remaining on
the warm side of normal. This will mark the beginning of a warmer
and drier period expected through the weekend. /Tobin

Saturday through Tuesday night: A brief period of northwest flow
will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure for the
weekend. This will bring warming temperatures and altogether shut
down any chances for precipitation. Temperatures will peak on
Sunday (although they will be almost as warm on Saturday) 10 to 15
degrees above normal (widespread 80s). The dry air that will
overspread the region will also allow for good cooling after the
sunsets. Temperatures will cool closer to where they should be at
night, but will warm quickly through the morning.

Changes may be on the way for next week, although it may take a
few days for it all to take effect. A large trough over the Gulf
of Alaska will transition our flow pattern to more southwest, and
a shortwave looks to move near or over the Inland Northwest in the
Monday/Tuesday time-frame. This will begin the ridge breakdown
process. How much the ridge is suppressed will determine what
happens as a more organized system moves toward the region mid-
week. Lots of time to look, but there could be higher rain chances
in the offering beginning mid next week. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south. Look for some middle and
high clouds, thickening especially Wednesday. A slight chance of
showers comes toward the Cascades...mainly after 12-18Z. Some
smoke from nearby wildfires may also lower VIS toward MVFR
conditions, mainly around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise
look for VFR, dry conditions. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  58  79  56  75 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  79  55  74 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Pullman        54  86  54  80  54  75 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  62  84  59  80 /  10  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       51  85  53  81  51  78 /   0  10  20  30  20  10
Sandpoint      47  79  49  75  52  71 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Kellogg        55  82  54  75  52  69 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     56  87  59  83  56  82 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      60  86  63  81  61  81 /   0  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           54  88  59  81  55  80 /   0  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 170010
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
510 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Thursday. Thursday
will also be locally breezy with a chance for light rain showers.
Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look for warm
temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday: Currently a weak wave is still in the
process of passing through the area that has shifted our ridge of
high pressure eastward now over western Montana. This initial
eastward shift is the first hit of the eventual ridge breakdown
later in the week. As of 2pm, weak echos on radar were being
indicated on a line from Omak to Coolin and areas slightly south.
The echos were likely due to weak forcing associated with the
passing wave. Not much in the way of precipitation is reaching the
surface as indicated by observations, so the majority is likely
attributed to virga or very light showers. Moving through the
afternoon and into the evening I anticipate the wave to continue
to push north with only virga or some very light showers the
continued extent.

Overnight we can expect mainly calm conditions as we await the next
more potent storm system later Wednesday. Starting as early as
tonight we will start to see some moisture filtering in ahead of
the main system allowing for increased cloud cover. This should
help to keep our overnight temperatures from falling as much as
previous nights. Tomorrow brings another warm day to the region
as we remain firmly entrenched within the mild southwesterly flow
pattern. Overall we can expect similar conditions as today with
warm temperatures and filtered mid and high clouds. As we move
into the afternoon is when the front end of the approaching system
finally reaches the Cascades. Tomorrow afternoon is when the
mention of precipitation enters the forecast for these areas.
Overall this is a rather low impact portion of the forecast as we
await the main incoming system. /Fliehman

Wednesday night through Friday night...A splitting trough will
move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. The best
dynamics and moisture will remain south in Oregon/NorCal with a
secondary wave area moving through central/southern B.C. The front
that will accompany the splitting trough is not overly strong.
Southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday will increase the usable
moisture with Precipitable waters going up to nearly an inch,
which is well above normal. The models have been in decent
agreement indicating the best instability and moisture will move
through my southeast zones Thursday afternoon. Showers will be
possible for all the higher terrain outside of the Columbia basin
and the Palouse...the focus will be from southern Shoshone county
then following the higher terrain north over the northern
Panhandle and west into the northeast mountains. In these area
there will be a chance of showers and the possibility of some
embedded thunderstorms. Instability parameters indicate no real
organization to the thunderstorms and we are expecting just a few
pulse type storms.

The surface gradient will tighten through the day Thursday and
the 850mb winds around 20 kts should easily mix down to the
surface. This will result in breezy southwest winds with gusts up
to 25 mph across the basin, Palouse and Spokane area.

High pressure will rebuild back into the area quickly on Friday
and Saturday. Northwest flow on Friday will keep conditions dry
with temperatures cooling down several degrees but remaining on
the warm side of normal. This will mark the beginning of a warmer
and drier period expected through the weekend. /Tobin

Saturday through Tuesday night: A brief period of northwest flow
will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure for the
weekend. This will bring warming temperatures and altogether shut
down any chances for precipitation. Temperatures will peak on
Sunday (although they will be almost as warm on Saturday) 10 to 15
degrees above normal (widespread 80s). The dry air that will
overspread the region will also allow for good cooling after the
sunsets. Temperatures will cool closer to where they should be at
night, but will warm quickly through the morning.

Changes may be on the way for next week, although it may take a
few days for it all to take effect. A large trough over the Gulf
of Alaska will transition our flow pattern to more southwest, and
a shortwave looks to move near or over the Inland Northwest in the
Monday/Tuesday time-frame. This will begin the ridge breakdown
process. How much the ridge is suppressed will determine what
happens as a more organized system moves toward the region mid-
week. Lots of time to look, but there could be higher rain chances
in the offering beginning mid next week. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure shifts east and the southwest flow brings
moisture and energy up from the south. Look for some middle and
high clouds, thickening especially Wednesday. A slight chance of
showers comes toward the Cascades...mainly after 12-18Z. Some
smoke from nearby wildfires may also lower VIS toward MVFR
conditions, mainly around PUW and LWS Wednesday morning. Otherwise
look for VFR, dry conditions. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  58  79  56  75 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  79  55  74 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Pullman        54  86  54  80  54  75 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  62  84  59  80 /  10  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       51  85  53  81  51  78 /   0  10  20  30  20  10
Sandpoint      47  79  49  75  52  71 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Kellogg        55  82  54  75  52  69 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     56  87  59  83  56  82 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      60  86  63  81  61  81 /   0  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           54  88  59  81  55  80 /   0  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 162152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE CWA
UNDER DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST ROUND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFF THE OREGON COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FALLING OUT OF
THESE CLOUDS...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS ALMOST ENTIRELY VIRGA. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF VIRGA CURRENTLY OFF CAPE MENDOCINO SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING.

THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
SMOKE. CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWN RIVER OF THESE FIRES LIKE ESTACADA AND OAKRIDGE TO EXPERIENCE
PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEK.
FORTUNATELY...WEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DISPERSE
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FIRES ARE GENERALLY MOST ACTIVE....TO THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON STATE LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPLITTING AND NOSE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MESSY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN WRINGING OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD INTO THE LOW
END LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE TOPOGRAPHY...AND
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AMPLE ON THURSDAY...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT...CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY SOLID THURSDAY SO LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO REMAIN NERVOUS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM TO TRY AND
BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL.

FOR FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING
TREND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL
SHOW A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SE WINDS HAVE HELPED CLEAR THE MARINE CLOUDS
SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 0Z. ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS NEAR KONP EARLY THIS EVENING...AND UP THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS KSPB.. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PREVENT THE CLOUDS TO MOVE MUCH INLAND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MARINE CLOUDS ACTUALLY PUSH AWAY
FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG AROUND
09Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR KEUG CIGS.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL GENERATE MVFR CIGS IN VCNTY OF
THE FIRE. THIS SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAY EXPAND ITS
COVERAGE WHEN THE WINDS CALM LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY WED
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS
WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW...AND SW WITH THE OVERALL WAVE
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING TONIGHT. SEA HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF N WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 162152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE CWA
UNDER DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST ROUND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFF THE OREGON COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FALLING OUT OF
THESE CLOUDS...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS ALMOST ENTIRELY VIRGA. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF VIRGA CURRENTLY OFF CAPE MENDOCINO SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING.

THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
SMOKE. CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWN RIVER OF THESE FIRES LIKE ESTACADA AND OAKRIDGE TO EXPERIENCE
PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEK.
FORTUNATELY...WEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DISPERSE
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FIRES ARE GENERALLY MOST ACTIVE....TO THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON STATE LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPLITTING AND NOSE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MESSY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN WRINGING OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD INTO THE LOW
END LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE TOPOGRAPHY...AND
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AMPLE ON THURSDAY...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT...CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY SOLID THURSDAY SO LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO REMAIN NERVOUS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM TO TRY AND
BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL.

FOR FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING
TREND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL
SHOW A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SE WINDS HAVE HELPED CLEAR THE MARINE CLOUDS
SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 0Z. ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS NEAR KONP EARLY THIS EVENING...AND UP THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS KSPB.. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PREVENT THE CLOUDS TO MOVE MUCH INLAND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MARINE CLOUDS ACTUALLY PUSH AWAY
FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG AROUND
09Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR KEUG CIGS.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL GENERATE MVFR CIGS IN VCNTY OF
THE FIRE. THIS SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAY EXPAND ITS
COVERAGE WHEN THE WINDS CALM LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY WED
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS
WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW...AND SW WITH THE OVERALL WAVE
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING TONIGHT. SEA HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF N WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 162152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE CWA
UNDER DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST ROUND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFF THE OREGON COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FALLING OUT OF
THESE CLOUDS...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS ALMOST ENTIRELY VIRGA. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF VIRGA CURRENTLY OFF CAPE MENDOCINO SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING.

THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
SMOKE. CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWN RIVER OF THESE FIRES LIKE ESTACADA AND OAKRIDGE TO EXPERIENCE
PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEK.
FORTUNATELY...WEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DISPERSE
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FIRES ARE GENERALLY MOST ACTIVE....TO THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON STATE LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPLITTING AND NOSE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MESSY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN WRINGING OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD INTO THE LOW
END LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE TOPOGRAPHY...AND
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AMPLE ON THURSDAY...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT...CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY SOLID THURSDAY SO LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO REMAIN NERVOUS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM TO TRY AND
BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL.

FOR FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING
TREND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL
SHOW A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SE WINDS HAVE HELPED CLEAR THE MARINE CLOUDS
SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 0Z. ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS NEAR KONP EARLY THIS EVENING...AND UP THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS KSPB.. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PREVENT THE CLOUDS TO MOVE MUCH INLAND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MARINE CLOUDS ACTUALLY PUSH AWAY
FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG AROUND
09Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR KEUG CIGS.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL GENERATE MVFR CIGS IN VCNTY OF
THE FIRE. THIS SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAY EXPAND ITS
COVERAGE WHEN THE WINDS CALM LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY WED
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS
WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW...AND SW WITH THE OVERALL WAVE
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING TONIGHT. SEA HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF N WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 162152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKEY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F AGAIN ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING THE CWA
UNDER DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST ROUND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFF THE OREGON COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FALLING OUT OF
THESE CLOUDS...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS ALMOST ENTIRELY VIRGA. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF VIRGA CURRENTLY OFF CAPE MENDOCINO SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING.

THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF
SMOKE. CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT VALLEY LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWN RIVER OF THESE FIRES LIKE ESTACADA AND OAKRIDGE TO EXPERIENCE
PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIS WEEK.
FORTUNATELY...WEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DISPERSE
SMOKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FIRES ARE GENERALLY MOST ACTIVE....TO THE
EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON STATE LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPLITTING AND NOSE DIVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MESSY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME...SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PERHAPS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN WRINGING OUT LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD INTO THE LOW
END LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE TOPOGRAPHY...AND
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AMPLE ON THURSDAY...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT...CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY SOLID THURSDAY SO LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OVERALL...CONTINUE TO REMAIN NERVOUS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM TO TRY AND
BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL.

FOR FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING
TREND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL
SHOW A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM UP WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE MARINE LAYER BACK IN AT NIGHT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SE WINDS HAVE HELPED CLEAR THE MARINE CLOUDS
SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 0Z. ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS NEAR KONP EARLY THIS EVENING...AND UP THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS KSPB.. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PREVENT THE CLOUDS TO MOVE MUCH INLAND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MARINE CLOUDS ACTUALLY PUSH AWAY
FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG AROUND
09Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR KEUG CIGS.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL GENERATE MVFR CIGS IN VCNTY OF
THE FIRE. THIS SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAY EXPAND ITS
COVERAGE WHEN THE WINDS CALM LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IMPACT
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY WED
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS
WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW...AND SW WITH THE OVERALL WAVE
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING TONIGHT. SEA HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF N WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 162129
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND FOR WARMER AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA HAVE BEEN STREAMING INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE FLOW IS
ONSHORE WHICH WILL ALLOW MARINE STRATUS INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE UPSHOT
IS A FORECAST FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO BEGIN BRINGING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW...ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND WITH
MAINLY 60S ON THE COAST.

A STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ARE LIKELY
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ANOTHER DIP WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT COULD SUM TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH BY THURSDAY
NIGHT OR SO. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN
MESOSCALE MODELS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WESTERLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
REACH THE AREA AND KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUD COVER OVERALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A BIT INTO MOSTLY 70S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS BUILD A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE THAT SHOULD GIVE A CLEARING AND DRYING TREND. BURKE

.LONG TERM...THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH OFFSHORE
SURFACE FLOW. MODEL HEIGHTS ARE IN THE MID 580S. THIS IS A SUNNY AND
WARM PATTERN. FOR NOW HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S
FOR SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD 80S.
ON MONDAY SURFACE FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HEIGHTS FALL IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. MONDAY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
APPEARS IN THE TUESDAY FORECAST. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PAC NW WILL SHIFT INLAND ON
WED AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. KHQM AND KCLM WILL HAVE MORE
EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING DUE TO WLY ONSHORE
FLOW.

KSEA...ANOTHER SURGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
WED. PATCHY MVFR STRATUS COULD ALSO FORM AT OR NEAR THE TERMINAL FOR
A FEW HOURS WED MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WITH S TO SW WIND LESS THAN 10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT BY WED MORNING...THEN SWITCHING THE N-NWLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. DTM

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING. AFTER THE MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK. OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AND SUN WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE W ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 162128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Thursday. Thursday
will also be locally breezy with a chance for light rain showers.
Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look for warm
temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday: Currently a weak wave is still in the
process of passing through the area that has shifted our ridge of
high pressure eastward now over western Montana. This initial
eastward shift is the first hit of the eventual ridge breakdown
later in the week. As of 2pm, weak echos on radar were being
indicated on a line from Omak to Coolin and areas slightly south.
The echos were likely due to weak forcing associated with the
passing wave. Not much in the way of precipitation is reaching the
surface as indicated by observations, so the majority is likely
attributed to virga or very light showers. Moving through the
afternoon and into the evening I anticipate the wave to continue
to push north with only virga or some very light showers the
continued extent.

Overnight we can expect mainly calm conditions as we await the next
more potent storm system later Wednesday. Starting as early as
tonight we will start to see some moisture filtering in ahead of
the main system allowing for increased cloud cover. This should
help to keep our overnight temperatures from falling as much as
previous nights. Tomorrow brings another warm day to the region
as we remain firmly entrenched within the mild southwesterly flow
pattern. Overall we can expect similar conditions as today with
warm temperatures and filtered mid and high clouds. As we move
into the afternoon is when the front end of the approaching system
finally reaches the Cascades. Tomorrow afternoon is when the
mention of precipitation enters the forecast for these areas.
Overall this is a rather low impact portion of the forecast as we
await the main incoming system. /Fliehman

Wednesday night through Friday night...A splitting trough will
move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. The best
dynamics and moisture will remain south in Oregon/NorCal with a
secondary wave area moving through central/southern B.C. The front
that will accompany the splitting trough is not overly strong.
Southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday will increase the usable
moisture with Precipitable waters going up to nearly an inch,
which is well above normal. The models have been in decent
agreement indicating the best instability and moisture will move
through my southeast zones Thursday afternoon. Showers will be
possible for all the higher terrain outside of the Columbia basin
and the Palouse...the focus will be from southern Shoshone county
then following the higher terrain north over the northern
Panhandle and west into the northeast mountains. In these area
there will be a chance of showers and the possibility of some
embedded thunderstorms. Instability parameters indicate no real
organization to the thunderstorms and we are expecting just a few
pulse type storms.

The surface gradient will tighten through the day Thursday and
the 850mb winds around 20 kts should easily mix down to the
surface. This will result in breezy southwest winds with gusts up
to 25 mph across the basin, Palouse and Spokane area.

High pressure will rebuild back into the area quickly on Friday
and Saturday. Northwest flow on Friday will keep conditions dry
with temperatures cooling down several degrees but remaining on
the warm side of normal. This will mark the beginning of a warmer
and drier period expected through the weekend. /Tobin

Saturday through Tuesday night: A brief period of northwest flow
will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure for the
weekend. This will bring warming temperatures and altogether shut
down any chances for precipitation. Temperatures will peak on
Sunday (although they will be almost as warm on Saturday) 10 to 15
degrees above normal (widespread 80s). The dry air that will
overspread the region will also allow for good cooling after the
sunsets. Temperatures will cool closer to where they should be at
night, but will warm quickly through the morning.

Changes may be on the way for next week, although it may take a
few days for it all to take effect. A large trough over the Gulf
of Alaska will transition our flow pattern to more southwest, and
a shortwave looks to move near or over the Inland Northwest in the
Monday/Tuesday time-frame. This will begin the ridge breakdown
process. How much the ridge is suppressed will determine what
happens as a more organized system moves toward the region mid-
week. Lots of time to look, but there could be higher rain chances
in the offering beginning mid next week. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Moisture advecting into the region from the south has
resulted in bands of mid and high level clouds draping across much
of the region this morning. Some obs have shown traces of precip
with these, but that will be about the extent. As these clouds
continue to drift north, expect a gradual clearing through the day
and overnight. Our next approaching system will have clouds on the
increase once again after mainly 12Z tomorrow. VIS has been
reduced at times at KPUW due to smoke passing through the area.
Expect this to lift this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes
better mixed promoting VFR conditions. /Fliehman



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  58  79  56  75 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  79  55  74 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Pullman        54  86  54  80  54  75 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  62  84  59  80 /  10  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       51  85  53  81  51  78 /   0  10  20  30  20  10
Sandpoint      47  79  49  75  52  71 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Kellogg        55  82  54  75  52  69 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     56  87  59  83  56  82 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      60  86  63  81  61  81 /   0  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           54  88  59  81  55  80 /   0  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 162128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Thursday. Thursday
will also be locally breezy with a chance for light rain showers.
Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look for warm
temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday: Currently a weak wave is still in the
process of passing through the area that has shifted our ridge of
high pressure eastward now over western Montana. This initial
eastward shift is the first hit of the eventual ridge breakdown
later in the week. As of 2pm, weak echos on radar were being
indicated on a line from Omak to Coolin and areas slightly south.
The echos were likely due to weak forcing associated with the
passing wave. Not much in the way of precipitation is reaching the
surface as indicated by observations, so the majority is likely
attributed to virga or very light showers. Moving through the
afternoon and into the evening I anticipate the wave to continue
to push north with only virga or some very light showers the
continued extent.

Overnight we can expect mainly calm conditions as we await the next
more potent storm system later Wednesday. Starting as early as
tonight we will start to see some moisture filtering in ahead of
the main system allowing for increased cloud cover. This should
help to keep our overnight temperatures from falling as much as
previous nights. Tomorrow brings another warm day to the region
as we remain firmly entrenched within the mild southwesterly flow
pattern. Overall we can expect similar conditions as today with
warm temperatures and filtered mid and high clouds. As we move
into the afternoon is when the front end of the approaching system
finally reaches the Cascades. Tomorrow afternoon is when the
mention of precipitation enters the forecast for these areas.
Overall this is a rather low impact portion of the forecast as we
await the main incoming system. /Fliehman

Wednesday night through Friday night...A splitting trough will
move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. The best
dynamics and moisture will remain south in Oregon/NorCal with a
secondary wave area moving through central/southern B.C. The front
that will accompany the splitting trough is not overly strong.
Southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday will increase the usable
moisture with Precipitable waters going up to nearly an inch,
which is well above normal. The models have been in decent
agreement indicating the best instability and moisture will move
through my southeast zones Thursday afternoon. Showers will be
possible for all the higher terrain outside of the Columbia basin
and the Palouse...the focus will be from southern Shoshone county
then following the higher terrain north over the northern
Panhandle and west into the northeast mountains. In these area
there will be a chance of showers and the possibility of some
embedded thunderstorms. Instability parameters indicate no real
organization to the thunderstorms and we are expecting just a few
pulse type storms.

The surface gradient will tighten through the day Thursday and
the 850mb winds around 20 kts should easily mix down to the
surface. This will result in breezy southwest winds with gusts up
to 25 mph across the basin, Palouse and Spokane area.

High pressure will rebuild back into the area quickly on Friday
and Saturday. Northwest flow on Friday will keep conditions dry
with temperatures cooling down several degrees but remaining on
the warm side of normal. This will mark the beginning of a warmer
and drier period expected through the weekend. /Tobin

Saturday through Tuesday night: A brief period of northwest flow
will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure for the
weekend. This will bring warming temperatures and altogether shut
down any chances for precipitation. Temperatures will peak on
Sunday (although they will be almost as warm on Saturday) 10 to 15
degrees above normal (widespread 80s). The dry air that will
overspread the region will also allow for good cooling after the
sunsets. Temperatures will cool closer to where they should be at
night, but will warm quickly through the morning.

Changes may be on the way for next week, although it may take a
few days for it all to take effect. A large trough over the Gulf
of Alaska will transition our flow pattern to more southwest, and
a shortwave looks to move near or over the Inland Northwest in the
Monday/Tuesday time-frame. This will begin the ridge breakdown
process. How much the ridge is suppressed will determine what
happens as a more organized system moves toward the region mid-
week. Lots of time to look, but there could be higher rain chances
in the offering beginning mid next week. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Moisture advecting into the region from the south has
resulted in bands of mid and high level clouds draping across much
of the region this morning. Some obs have shown traces of precip
with these, but that will be about the extent. As these clouds
continue to drift north, expect a gradual clearing through the day
and overnight. Our next approaching system will have clouds on the
increase once again after mainly 12Z tomorrow. VIS has been
reduced at times at KPUW due to smoke passing through the area.
Expect this to lift this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes
better mixed promoting VFR conditions. /Fliehman



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  58  79  56  75 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  84  54  79  55  74 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Pullman        54  86  54  80  54  75 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  62  84  59  80 /  10  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       51  85  53  81  51  78 /   0  10  20  30  20  10
Sandpoint      47  79  49  75  52  71 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Kellogg        55  82  54  75  52  69 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     56  87  59  83  56  82 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      60  86  63  81  61  81 /   0  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           54  88  59  81  55  80 /   0  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161749
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1049 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Moisture advecting into the region from the south has
resulted in bands of mid and high level clouds draping across much
of the region this morning. Some obs have shown traces of precip
with these, but that will be about the extent. As these clouds
continue to drift north, expect a gradual clearing through the day
and overnight. Our next approaching system will have clouds on the
increase once again after mainly 12Z tomorrow. VIS has been
reduced at times at KPUW due to smoke passing through the area.
Expect this to lift this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes
better mixed promoting VFR conditions. /Fliehman


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 161749
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1049 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Moisture advecting into the region from the south has
resulted in bands of mid and high level clouds draping across much
of the region this morning. Some obs have shown traces of precip
with these, but that will be about the extent. As these clouds
continue to drift north, expect a gradual clearing through the day
and overnight. Our next approaching system will have clouds on the
increase once again after mainly 12Z tomorrow. VIS has been
reduced at times at KPUW due to smoke passing through the area.
Expect this to lift this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes
better mixed promoting VFR conditions. /Fliehman


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 161613
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT FIRE OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY APPROACH 90F AGAIN FOR
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PUGET SOUND. THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UNDERNEATH
THESE CLOUDS...IT IS APPARENT THAT MARINE STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE
COASTAL GAPS...MAKING IT INTO KELSO/LONGVIEW AND SCAPPOOSE...WHERE
IT APPEARS THEY WILL STALL OUT. ALTHOUGH...A FEW CLOUDS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE PORTLAND METRO FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.

BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS RESULTED
IN MARINE CLOUDS ALREADY THINNING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
EVEN THOUGH MARINE STRATUS BRIEFLY MADE IT INTO EUGENE...CORVALLIS
AND SALEM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THESE
CLOUDS HAS BEEN PINCHED OFF...AND ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY. THE NET RESULT IS
THAT SKY COVER WAS LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FOR MUCH OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES TODAY.

AS THE EAST SIDE HEATS UP THIS AFTERNOON...MODEST SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KICK UP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOW MOST OF
THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE INTO THE CASCADES AND
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND POINTS EAST...AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

A SPLITTY TROUGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. CONTINUE TO
THINK THAT MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS OVERDONE...BUT WILL
EVALUATE FURTHER WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE IS SENDING HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
EVALUATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS MARINE STRATUS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST WITH MVFR CIGS KTMK AND NORTHWARD. THERE WERE MVFR
CIGS BRIEFLY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE
ALREADY CLEARING. BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOWS THAT STRATUS
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY HAS MADE IT KSPB...BUT IS STARTING
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST. MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 0Z. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS NEAR
KONP...OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE
CLOUDS TO MOVE MUCH INLAND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MARINE
CLOUDS ACTUALLY PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG AROUND 09Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR KEUG CIGS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT WEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 20Z...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 8Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO
SW WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE
WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW
W AND SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
N WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 161613
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT FIRE OVER THE CASCADES AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY APPROACH 90F AGAIN FOR
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PUGET SOUND. THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UNDERNEATH
THESE CLOUDS...IT IS APPARENT THAT MARINE STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE
COASTAL GAPS...MAKING IT INTO KELSO/LONGVIEW AND SCAPPOOSE...WHERE
IT APPEARS THEY WILL STALL OUT. ALTHOUGH...A FEW CLOUDS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE PORTLAND METRO FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.

BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS RESULTED
IN MARINE CLOUDS ALREADY THINNING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
EVEN THOUGH MARINE STRATUS BRIEFLY MADE IT INTO EUGENE...CORVALLIS
AND SALEM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THESE
CLOUDS HAS BEEN PINCHED OFF...AND ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY. THE NET RESULT IS
THAT SKY COVER WAS LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FOR MUCH OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES TODAY.

AS THE EAST SIDE HEATS UP THIS AFTERNOON...MODEST SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KICK UP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOW MOST OF
THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE INTO THE CASCADES AND
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND POINTS EAST...AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

A SPLITTY TROUGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. CONTINUE TO
THINK THAT MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS OVERDONE...BUT WILL
EVALUATE FURTHER WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE IS SENDING HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
EVALUATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS MARINE STRATUS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST WITH MVFR CIGS KTMK AND NORTHWARD. THERE WERE MVFR
CIGS BRIEFLY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE
ALREADY CLEARING. BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOWS THAT STRATUS
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY HAS MADE IT KSPB...BUT IS STARTING
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST. MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 0Z. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON COAST WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS NEAR
KONP...OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE
CLOUDS TO MOVE MUCH INLAND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MARINE
CLOUDS ACTUALLY PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG AROUND 09Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR KEUG CIGS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT WEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 20Z...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 8Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO
SW WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE
WILL BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW
W AND SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
N WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 161548
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND FOR WARMER AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE
CONSISTING MAINLY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL TRACE AMOUNTS IN SPRINKLES BUT ONLY ONE INSTANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...0.01 INCH AT KOLM. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BY NOON OR SO. SOME MARINE STRATUS THAT
PENETRATED PART WAY INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO RETREAT TO
THE COAST. SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN SOLIDLY ONSHORE SINCE LAST NIGHT SO
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY 70S
INLAND AND 60S COAST.

FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAVING AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPIN IMPULSES
NORTHEAST EACH DAY. BY THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER E WA THURSDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER W WA.
HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE
WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE WELL ON BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING IT INLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF E-NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH COULD
PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S THIS WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE SHIFTING E OVER W MT SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER
THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AND SLOW ENOUGH TO EKE OUT A MOSTLY SUNNY
DRY MONDAY AS WELL. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER WA TODAY WILL LIFT NE OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. BROADER LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH WED. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE THIS MORNING...JUST ENOUGH TO BREAK UP SOME OF THE LOWER
STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. MID CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILLS STABILIZE
TONIGHT WITH ANY PATCHY MVFR STRATUS SHORT LIVED WED MORNING.
ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND WED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

KSEA...MVFR STRATUS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. PATCHY MVFR STRATUS
COULD ALSO FORM AT OR NEAR THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS WED MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH S TO SW WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A WLY PUSH IS UNDERWAY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING. AFTER THE MARINE PUSH TODAY THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 161548
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND FOR WARMER AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE
CONSISTING MAINLY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL TRACE AMOUNTS IN SPRINKLES BUT ONLY ONE INSTANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...0.01 INCH AT KOLM. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BY NOON OR SO. SOME MARINE STRATUS THAT
PENETRATED PART WAY INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO RETREAT TO
THE COAST. SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN SOLIDLY ONSHORE SINCE LAST NIGHT SO
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY 70S
INLAND AND 60S COAST.

FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAVING AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPIN IMPULSES
NORTHEAST EACH DAY. BY THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER E WA THURSDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER W WA.
HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE
WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE WELL ON BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING IT INLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF E-NE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH COULD
PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S THIS WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE SHIFTING E OVER W MT SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER
THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AND SLOW ENOUGH TO EKE OUT A MOSTLY SUNNY
DRY MONDAY AS WELL. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER WA TODAY WILL LIFT NE OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. BROADER LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH WED. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE THIS MORNING...JUST ENOUGH TO BREAK UP SOME OF THE LOWER
STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. MID CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILLS STABILIZE
TONIGHT WITH ANY PATCHY MVFR STRATUS SHORT LIVED WED MORNING.
ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND WED. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

KSEA...MVFR STRATUS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. PATCHY MVFR STRATUS
COULD ALSO FORM AT OR NEAR THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS WED MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH S TO SW WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A WLY PUSH IS UNDERWAY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING. AFTER THE MARINE PUSH TODAY THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161158
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some
mid to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles. Near KEAT and KLWS and
KPUW this morning, but there is a better chance of just some
virga. Skies will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central
WA and OR. This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at
KPUW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161158
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some
mid to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles. Near KEAT and KLWS and
KPUW this morning, but there is a better chance of just some
virga. Skies will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central
WA and OR. This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at
KPUW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161158
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some
mid to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles. Near KEAT and KLWS and
KPUW this morning, but there is a better chance of just some
virga. Skies will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central
WA and OR. This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at
KPUW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161158
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some
mid to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles. Near KEAT and KLWS and
KPUW this morning, but there is a better chance of just some
virga. Skies will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central
WA and OR. This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at
KPUW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 160953
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND FOR WARMER
AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SW MARINE PUSH OVERNIGHT HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF
STRATUS INLAND THIS MORNING. STRATUS REACHED SHELTON AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND WITH KSHN WINDS BLOWING SW 15-25KT SHOULD SPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MOST OF PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING. THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS TRIGGERED THE MARINE PUSH WAS CENTERED OVER ASTORIA
AT 09Z/2 AM AND WAS HEADED QUICKLY NORTH. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS ALONG THE N OREGON COAST ALONG WITH A SOLO LIGHTNING STRIKE AT
0745Z. THIS SHOWER AREA IS SMALL ENOUGH TO FIZZLE OUT THIS MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DEEPER INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PACNW...BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING.

THE NAM12 AND ARW-W BOUNDARY LAYER RH FORECASTS SEEMED A REASONABLE
INDICATOR FOR STRATUS COVERAGE TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
BLANKET PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT SPREADING E OF
LAKE WASHINGTON...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ALONG THE COAST AND ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTENT ENOUGH SO THAT STRATUS WILL PROBABLY NOT BURN OFF
OVER THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY TODAY. THE RATHER SPARSE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
COOLING EXPECTED IN THE STRATUS AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE LOWER CHEHALIS.

MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WERE ALSO TROUBLESOME. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
ABOUT AS STRONG TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BE DEEPER AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF W WA...BUT INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP THE
CLOUD COVER BREAK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
MEANS THAT LOCATIONS TODAY WHERE THE STRATUS IS MOST PERSISTENT
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN A BETTER MIXED
MARINE LAYER. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STRATUS FREE TODAY...MAY END UP
BEING A LITTLE COOLER BECAUSE OF THE GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE ALONG 140W EJECTING E THIS WEEK.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THEN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE GREATEST SHOWER POTENTIAL AND LIKELY POPS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE TROUGH RIGHT
OVERHEAD. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER E WA THURSDAY
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER W WA. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ON BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING IT
INLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF E-NE LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH COULD PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S THIS
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE
SHIFTING E OVER W MT SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONT TO
APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AND
SLOW ENOUGH TO EKE OUT A MOSTLY SUNNY DRY MONDAY AS WELL. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS COAST AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN PUGET SOUND
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE MARINE STRATUS MAY PUSH EAST IN THE STRAIT
THIS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF TIL THE STRONGER PUSH
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF EVERETT...THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST AND THERE IS SW FLOW ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.

KSEA...MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...THEN JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. WITH ONSHORE FLOW THE BREEZE WILL REMAIN S TO SW.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW...AND A DECENT WLY PUSH IS LIKELY IN THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE MARINE
PUSH TODAY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WEATHER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
FROM NOON TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 160953
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND FOR WARMER
AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SW MARINE PUSH OVERNIGHT HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF
STRATUS INLAND THIS MORNING. STRATUS REACHED SHELTON AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND WITH KSHN WINDS BLOWING SW 15-25KT SHOULD SPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MOST OF PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING. THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS TRIGGERED THE MARINE PUSH WAS CENTERED OVER ASTORIA
AT 09Z/2 AM AND WAS HEADED QUICKLY NORTH. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS ALONG THE N OREGON COAST ALONG WITH A SOLO LIGHTNING STRIKE AT
0745Z. THIS SHOWER AREA IS SMALL ENOUGH TO FIZZLE OUT THIS MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DEEPER INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PACNW...BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING.

THE NAM12 AND ARW-W BOUNDARY LAYER RH FORECASTS SEEMED A REASONABLE
INDICATOR FOR STRATUS COVERAGE TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
BLANKET PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT SPREADING E OF
LAKE WASHINGTON...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ALONG THE COAST AND ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTENT ENOUGH SO THAT STRATUS WILL PROBABLY NOT BURN OFF
OVER THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY TODAY. THE RATHER SPARSE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
COOLING EXPECTED IN THE STRATUS AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE LOWER CHEHALIS.

MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WERE ALSO TROUBLESOME. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
ABOUT AS STRONG TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BE DEEPER AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF W WA...BUT INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP THE
CLOUD COVER BREAK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
MEANS THAT LOCATIONS TODAY WHERE THE STRATUS IS MOST PERSISTENT
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN A BETTER MIXED
MARINE LAYER. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STRATUS FREE TODAY...MAY END UP
BEING A LITTLE COOLER BECAUSE OF THE GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE ALONG 140W EJECTING E THIS WEEK.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THEN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE GREATEST SHOWER POTENTIAL AND LIKELY POPS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE TROUGH RIGHT
OVERHEAD. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER E WA THURSDAY
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER W WA. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ON BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING IT
INLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF E-NE LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH COULD PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S THIS
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE
SHIFTING E OVER W MT SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONT TO
APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AND
SLOW ENOUGH TO EKE OUT A MOSTLY SUNNY DRY MONDAY AS WELL. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS COAST AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN PUGET SOUND
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE MARINE STRATUS MAY PUSH EAST IN THE STRAIT
THIS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF TIL THE STRONGER PUSH
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF EVERETT...THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST AND THERE IS SW FLOW ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.

KSEA...MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...THEN JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. WITH ONSHORE FLOW THE BREEZE WILL REMAIN S TO SW.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW...AND A DECENT WLY PUSH IS LIKELY IN THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE MARINE
PUSH TODAY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WEATHER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
FROM NOON TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









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