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000
FXUS66 KOTX 261952
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1152 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
We have issued a dense fog advisory to cover hazardous travel
along the Highway 2 corridor between Airway Heights to Wilbur and
onto the Waterville Plateau. With warmer air moving in aloft, the
inversions are strengthening and cloud decks are lowering with
visibilities down near 1/8 mile in spots. Fog looks to be clearing
down near Ritzville so hazard will mainly address travel along Highway
2. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  42  50  41  46  27 /  20  30  30  20  70  60
Coeur d`Alene  45  41  48  41  45  29 /  40  30  30  40  80  70
Pullman        53  44  53  43  49  32 /  10  30  30  30  90  90
Lewiston       57  47  58  46  53  38 /  10  10  10  20  60  70
Colville       39  38  46  40  43  22 /  50  60  50  50  70  30
Sandpoint      39  38  45  38  42  26 /  70  70  60  70  80  80
Kellogg        42  40  44  39  41  30 /  60  60  70  60  90 100
Moses Lake     48  44  55  41  51  27 /   0  10  10  20  30  30
Wenatchee      46  42  50  41  48  29 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Omak           39  38  46  37  41  16 /  20  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
     Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS66 KSEW 261832 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED ADDED AVN MAR SECTIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1032 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WARM
FRONT THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN B.C. THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT FROM THE GREATER PUGET SOUND
REGION SOUTHWARD...AND REMAIN SO THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. THE WARM AIR HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THE NW INTERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S...BUT SHOULD GET THERE
EVENTUALLY TODAY. THE LULL IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS OFFSHORE NEARING 130W AT 16Z/8 AM THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST AROUND 06Z/10 PM TONIGHT.
FROPA OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE BEFORE 12Z/4 AM. S-SE SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING IN THE LOW END
WIND ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE USUAL AREAS...COAST AND N INTERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SW LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT AT 850 MB IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN THE
35-45KT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER B.C. MOVES
S. THE SW FLOW WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES WITH
HEAVY RAIN...WITH WIDESPREAD 3 INCH AMOUNTS AND A BULLSEYE OF AROUND
5 INCHES AROUND MT BAKER FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...6000 TO 7000 FEET TONIGHT
LOWERING TO 5000-6000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME FLOODING ON SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF
THE N CASCADES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER TONIGHTS FRONT EXITS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE OLD
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS W WA AS A
COLD FRONT...BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN B.C.  MODELS BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT TO THE N
INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DOWN ACROSS PUGET SOUND LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN FINALLY APPROACHING THE OREGON BORDER LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES S.

INTERESTING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS VERY
COLD ALOFT AND WILL GRADUALLY COOL THE AIR MASS ENOUGH OVERNIGHT SO
THAT RAIN AND SNOW MIXED OR JUST SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RIGHT FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL PUGET SOUND.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORMING OVER THE B.C.INTERIOR WILL GENERATE
FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW WINDS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOL
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS W WA...WITH CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NE WINDS COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR N INTERIOR. THE
COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS W WA SUNDAY MORNING. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 AM AFD...LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO
THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE
FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES
TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW RESIDES. THE
COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE COAST AND W/SW SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS HAS FALLEN THE PAST 3 HOURS OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH THE
RAINFALL RATES CONTINUING A DOWNTREND. RAIN IS ALSO DECREASING
ACROSS THE N CASCADES WHERE UP TO 1 INCH FELL OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS NOW
IN A LULL ACROSS WRN WA AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A HALF INCH AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM/SKAGIT COUNTIES AND THE OLYMPICS. BECAUSE RAINFALL HAS
TAPERED...THE ODDS OF THE NOOKSACK AT CEDARVILLE REACHING FLOOD
TODAY ARE LOW BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. THE STILLAGUAMISH
REACHED FLOOD OVERNIGHT BUT IS ON THE DOWNTURN AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
FLOOD LATER TODAY.

THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS CRESTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SKYKOMISH RIVER RAN WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS
MORNING BUT IS NOW ON THE DOWNTURN. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED
BY THE CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD
HAVE SOME FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...THE FLOW ALOFT IS STRONG AND FROM THE WEST. THE AIR MASS
IS RATHER MOIST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. CIGS ARE MVFR TO
VFR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. A
COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...CIGS WILL BE HIGHER JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
FALL JUST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TO LOW MVFR IN MOST AREAS. SLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WITH THE FRONT AND INTO THE
MORNING.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND INCREASING FROM 10 TO 12 KT TODAY TO 12 TO 14 KT
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 7 OR 8Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
COMMON IN MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KOTX 261826
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We continue to delay rising snow levels along the
Canadian Border however despite on and off snow at locations like
Laurier, Bonners Ferry, and Metaline Falls accumulations look to
be primarily on grassy (non-road) surfaces. Therefore, the winter
weather advisories were allowed to expire at 10AM this morning.

Travel across the region looks to be most problematic along Hwy
20 over Sherman Pass and into the Okanogan and Methow Valleys
where 12-18 inches of snow fell over the last 36 hours. The main
roads look mainly wet via cams but many secondary roads will
likely still be dealing with slick, slushy conditions. Periods of
light snow will remain a possibility through today with most
accumulations remaining on non-road surfaces.

Areas of dense fog will be a larger concern region-wide and will
restrict visibilities at times. The worse conditions look to be
along Hwy 2 between Airway Heights and Wenatchee and at times in
and around Moses Lake. Nearly all valley locations north of Hwy 2
can also expect fog and low clouds as warmer air moves in aloft
and strengthens inversions.

Quite the contrast in temperatures expected today with 60s in the
foothills of the Blue Mtns and Snake River Valley while
communities near the Canadian Border remain socked in the 30s.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  42  50  40  45  26 /  20  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  45  41  48  40  44  27 /  40  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        53  44  53  42  48  31 /  10  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       57  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       39  38  46  38  42  20 /  50  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 /  70  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        42  40  44  38  40  29 /  60  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     48  44  55  40  50  25 /   0  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      46  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           39  38  46  35  40  14 /  20  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261826
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We continue to delay rising snow levels along the
Canadian Border however despite on and off snow at locations like
Laurier, Bonners Ferry, and Metaline Falls accumulations look to
be primarily on grassy (non-road) surfaces. Therefore, the winter
weather advisories were allowed to expire at 10AM this morning.

Travel across the region looks to be most problematic along Hwy
20 over Sherman Pass and into the Okanogan and Methow Valleys
where 12-18 inches of snow fell over the last 36 hours. The main
roads look mainly wet via cams but many secondary roads will
likely still be dealing with slick, slushy conditions. Periods of
light snow will remain a possibility through today with most
accumulations remaining on non-road surfaces.

Areas of dense fog will be a larger concern region-wide and will
restrict visibilities at times. The worse conditions look to be
along Hwy 2 between Airway Heights and Wenatchee and at times in
and around Moses Lake. Nearly all valley locations north of Hwy 2
can also expect fog and low clouds as warmer air moves in aloft
and strengthens inversions.

Quite the contrast in temperatures expected today with 60s in the
foothills of the Blue Mtns and Snake River Valley while
communities near the Canadian Border remain socked in the 30s.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  42  50  40  45  26 /  20  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  45  41  48  40  44  27 /  40  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        53  44  53  42  48  31 /  10  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       57  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       39  38  46  38  42  20 /  50  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 /  70  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        42  40  44  38  40  29 /  60  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     48  44  55  40  50  25 /   0  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      46  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           39  38  46  35  40  14 /  20  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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000
FXUS66 KPQR 261758
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
FURTHER N THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR
MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
N WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE SUN. SUN NIGHT AND MON A
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WAS N OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW POP IN FOR TODAY N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY
AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENCE TYPE TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE BEST
BET...MEANING SOME MORE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST AND
BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND SOME BRISK COASTAL
WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING FOR MORE
RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 17Z...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SPEEDS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO IN THE 02Z
TO 08Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC CASE...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IF THIS
OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST THU MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE N
WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT. WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY THEN STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261758
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
FURTHER N THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR
MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
N WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE SUN. SUN NIGHT AND MON A
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WAS N OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW POP IN FOR TODAY N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY
AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENCE TYPE TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE BEST
BET...MEANING SOME MORE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST AND
BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND SOME BRISK COASTAL
WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING FOR MORE
RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 17Z...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SPEEDS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO IN THE 02Z
TO 08Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC CASE...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IF THIS
OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST THU MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE N
WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT. WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY THEN STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261758
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
FURTHER N THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR
MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
N WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE SUN. SUN NIGHT AND MON A
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WAS N OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW POP IN FOR TODAY N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY
AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENCE TYPE TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE BEST
BET...MEANING SOME MORE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST AND
BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND SOME BRISK COASTAL
WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING FOR MORE
RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 17Z...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SPEEDS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO IN THE 02Z
TO 08Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC CASE...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IF THIS
OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST THU MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE N
WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT. WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY THEN STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261758
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
FURTHER N THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR
MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
N WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE SUN. SUN NIGHT AND MON A
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WAS N OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW POP IN FOR TODAY N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY
AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENCE TYPE TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE BEST
BET...MEANING SOME MORE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST AND
BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND SOME BRISK COASTAL
WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING FOR MORE
RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 17Z...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SPEEDS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO IN THE 02Z
TO 08Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC CASE...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IF THIS
OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST THU MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE N
WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT. WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY THEN STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 261753
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
952 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WARM
FRONT THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN B.C. THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT FROM THE GREATER PUGET SOUND
REGION SOUTHWARD...AND REMAIN SO THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. THE WARM AIR HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THE NW INTERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S...BUT SHOULD GET THERE
EVENTUALLY TODAY. THE LULL IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS OFFSHORE NEARING 130W AT 16Z/8 AM THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST AROUND 06Z/10 PM TONIGHT.
FROPA OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE BEFORE 12Z/4 AM. S-SE SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING IN THE LOW END
WIND ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE USUAL AREAS...COAST AND N INTERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SW LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT AT 850 MB IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN THE
35-45KT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER B.C. MOVES
S. THE SW FLOW WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES WITH
HEAVY RAIN...WITH WIDESPREAD 3 INCH AMOUNTS AND A BULLSEYE OF AROUND
5 INCHES AROUND MT BAKER FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...6000 TO 7000 FEET TONIGHT
LOWERING TO 5000-6000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME FLOODING ON SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF
THE N CASCADES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER TONIGHTS FRONT EXITS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE OLD
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS W WA AS A
COLD FRONT...BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN B.C.  MODELS BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT TO THE N
INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DOWN ACROSS PUGET SOUND LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN FINALLY APPROACHING THE OREGON BORDER LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES S.

INTERESTING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS VERY
COLD ALOFT AND WILL GRADUALLY COOL THE AIR MASS ENOUGH OVERNIGHT SO
THAT RAIN AND SNOW MIXED OR JUST SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RIGHT FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL PUGET SOUND.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORMING OVER THE B.C.INTERIOR WILL GENERATE
FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW WINDS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOL
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS W WA...WITH CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NE WINDS COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR N INTERIOR. THE
COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS W WA SUNDAY MORNING. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 AM AFD...LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO
THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE
FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES
TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW RESIDES. THE
COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE COAST AND W/SW SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS HAS FALLEN THE PAST 3 HOURS OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH THE
RAINFALL RATES CONTINUING A DOWNTREND. RAIN IS ALSO DECREASING
ACROSS THE N CASCADES WHERE UP TO 1 INCH FELL OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS NOW
IN A LULL ACROSS WRN WA AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A HALF INCH AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM/SKAGIT COUNTIES AND THE OLYMPICS. BECAUSE RAINFALL HAS
TAPERED...THE ODDS OF THE NOOKSACK AT CEDARVILLE REACHING FLOOD
TODAY ARE LOW BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. THE STILLAGUAMISH
REACHED FLOOD OVERNIGHT BUT IS ON THE DOWNTURN AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
FLOOD LATER TODAY.

THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS CRESTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SKYKOMISH RIVER RAN WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS
MORNING BUT IS NOW ON THE DOWNTURN. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED
BY THE CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD
HAVE SOME FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...DELAYED...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...DELAYED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND
MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
COMMON MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 261753
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
952 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WARM
FRONT THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN B.C. THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT FROM THE GREATER PUGET SOUND
REGION SOUTHWARD...AND REMAIN SO THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. THE WARM AIR HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THE NW INTERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S...BUT SHOULD GET THERE
EVENTUALLY TODAY. THE LULL IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS OFFSHORE NEARING 130W AT 16Z/8 AM THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST AROUND 06Z/10 PM TONIGHT.
FROPA OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE BEFORE 12Z/4 AM. S-SE SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING IN THE LOW END
WIND ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE USUAL AREAS...COAST AND N INTERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SW LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT AT 850 MB IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN THE
35-45KT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER B.C. MOVES
S. THE SW FLOW WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES WITH
HEAVY RAIN...WITH WIDESPREAD 3 INCH AMOUNTS AND A BULLSEYE OF AROUND
5 INCHES AROUND MT BAKER FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...6000 TO 7000 FEET TONIGHT
LOWERING TO 5000-6000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME FLOODING ON SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF
THE N CASCADES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER TONIGHTS FRONT EXITS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE OLD
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS W WA AS A
COLD FRONT...BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN B.C.  MODELS BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT TO THE N
INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DOWN ACROSS PUGET SOUND LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN FINALLY APPROACHING THE OREGON BORDER LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES S.

INTERESTING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS VERY
COLD ALOFT AND WILL GRADUALLY COOL THE AIR MASS ENOUGH OVERNIGHT SO
THAT RAIN AND SNOW MIXED OR JUST SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RIGHT FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL PUGET SOUND.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORMING OVER THE B.C.INTERIOR WILL GENERATE
FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW WINDS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOL
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS W WA...WITH CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NE WINDS COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR N INTERIOR. THE
COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS W WA SUNDAY MORNING. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 AM AFD...LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO
THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE
FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES
TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW RESIDES. THE
COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE COAST AND W/SW SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS HAS FALLEN THE PAST 3 HOURS OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH THE
RAINFALL RATES CONTINUING A DOWNTREND. RAIN IS ALSO DECREASING
ACROSS THE N CASCADES WHERE UP TO 1 INCH FELL OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS NOW
IN A LULL ACROSS WRN WA AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A HALF INCH AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM/SKAGIT COUNTIES AND THE OLYMPICS. BECAUSE RAINFALL HAS
TAPERED...THE ODDS OF THE NOOKSACK AT CEDARVILLE REACHING FLOOD
TODAY ARE LOW BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. THE STILLAGUAMISH
REACHED FLOOD OVERNIGHT BUT IS ON THE DOWNTURN AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
FLOOD LATER TODAY.

THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS CRESTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SKYKOMISH RIVER RAN WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS
MORNING BUT IS NOW ON THE DOWNTURN. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED
BY THE CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD
HAVE SOME FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...DELAYED...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...DELAYED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND
MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
COMMON MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 261154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A 24 hour rain event over much of the Inland Northwest
has left a soup of low stratus and fog. Deep surface low pressure
approaching Vancouver Island today will produce increasing
southwest winds over southeast Washington which should bring some
improvement to ceilings. Fog and stratus should lift at
Lewiston and Pullman this morning. Low level wind shear has been
included at Pullman prior to 17z. Nearby Alpowa summit is gusting
to 40 mph and NAM forecast sounding show strong winds at 2000 feet
off the deck. Cold air damming along the East Slopes of the
Cascades into the Moses Lake area could make ceiling and
visibility improvements very slow to evolve. The 12z TAFS show a
gradual lifting of the cloud deck, but this may be optimistic
looking at the dewpoints over the southern Columbia Basin which
will be advected into the cold stable air trapped along the East
Slopes. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A 24 hour rain event over much of the Inland Northwest
has left a soup of low stratus and fog. Deep surface low pressure
approaching Vancouver Island today will produce increasing
southwest winds over southeast Washington which should bring some
improvement to ceilings. Fog and stratus should lift at
Lewiston and Pullman this morning. Low level wind shear has been
included at Pullman prior to 17z. Nearby Alpowa summit is gusting
to 40 mph and NAM forecast sounding show strong winds at 2000 feet
off the deck. Cold air damming along the East Slopes of the
Cascades into the Moses Lake area could make ceiling and
visibility improvements very slow to evolve. The 12z TAFS show a
gradual lifting of the cloud deck, but this may be optimistic
looking at the dewpoints over the southern Columbia Basin which
will be advected into the cold stable air trapped along the East
Slopes. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A 24 hour rain event over much of the Inland Northwest
has left a soup of low stratus and fog. Deep surface low pressure
approaching Vancouver Island today will produce increasing
southwest winds over southeast Washington which should bring some
improvement to ceilings. Fog and stratus should lift at
Lewiston and Pullman this morning. Low level wind shear has been
included at Pullman prior to 17z. Nearby Alpowa summit is gusting
to 40 mph and NAM forecast sounding show strong winds at 2000 feet
off the deck. Cold air damming along the East Slopes of the
Cascades into the Moses Lake area could make ceiling and
visibility improvements very slow to evolve. The 12z TAFS show a
gradual lifting of the cloud deck, but this may be optimistic
looking at the dewpoints over the southern Columbia Basin which
will be advected into the cold stable air trapped along the East
Slopes. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A 24 hour rain event over much of the Inland Northwest
has left a soup of low stratus and fog. Deep surface low pressure
approaching Vancouver Island today will produce increasing
southwest winds over southeast Washington which should bring some
improvement to ceilings. Fog and stratus should lift at
Lewiston and Pullman this morning. Low level wind shear has been
included at Pullman prior to 17z. Nearby Alpowa summit is gusting
to 40 mph and NAM forecast sounding show strong winds at 2000 feet
off the deck. Cold air damming along the East Slopes of the
Cascades into the Moses Lake area could make ceiling and
visibility improvements very slow to evolve. The 12z TAFS show a
gradual lifting of the cloud deck, but this may be optimistic
looking at the dewpoints over the southern Columbia Basin which
will be advected into the cold stable air trapped along the East
Slopes. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 261120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY LIFTED NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BRUSHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND MILD AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AND START TO MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. LOOK FOR
RAIN AND COASTAL WIND. A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR MORE RAIN ON
FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR IS RATHER QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THE
MAIN WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON IN THE VERY MILD WARM SECTOR. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY AND AGAIN QUITE MILD... AND A FEW RECORDS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN REACH AGAIN TODAY. WE MAY ALSO SEE
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
REACH THE COAST AND BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND
SOME BRISK COASTAL WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
THANKSGIVING FOR MORE RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ON THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE.
INCREASING WINDS AND A NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO EVEN TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
IMPACT THE COAST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY. FURTHER INLAND...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRATUS DECK NEAR 5KFT IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY LOCATIONS THAT
CLEAR WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
KEUG AND KSLE...BUT THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD SNEAK INTO
THE PORTLAND METRO TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY GIVE WAY
TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DETERIORATING THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE.
REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY. EXPECT PRIMARILY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK COASTAL JET WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT TO SURFACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR THE 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SITUATIONS WILL KEEP THE TIMING OF THE
GALE WARNING AS IS.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL STORM
SYSTEM SO EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE WEAK LOW PRESSURES
TO OUR WEST MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT SEAS IN
THE LOWER TEENS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A FRONT
SLIDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO RELAX FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. NONETHELESS... WINDS
SHOULD TURN MORE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AND NEAR TILLAMOOK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING
     TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY LIFTED NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BRUSHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND MILD AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AND START TO MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. LOOK FOR
RAIN AND COASTAL WIND. A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR MORE RAIN ON
FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR IS RATHER QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THE
MAIN WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON IN THE VERY MILD WARM SECTOR. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY AND AGAIN QUITE MILD... AND A FEW RECORDS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN REACH AGAIN TODAY. WE MAY ALSO SEE
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
REACH THE COAST AND BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND
SOME BRISK COASTAL WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
THANKSGIVING FOR MORE RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ON THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE.
INCREASING WINDS AND A NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO EVEN TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
IMPACT THE COAST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY. FURTHER INLAND...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRATUS DECK NEAR 5KFT IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY LOCATIONS THAT
CLEAR WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
KEUG AND KSLE...BUT THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD SNEAK INTO
THE PORTLAND METRO TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY GIVE WAY
TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DETERIORATING THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE.
REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY. EXPECT PRIMARILY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK COASTAL JET WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT TO SURFACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR THE 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SITUATIONS WILL KEEP THE TIMING OF THE
GALE WARNING AS IS.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL STORM
SYSTEM SO EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE WEAK LOW PRESSURES
TO OUR WEST MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT SEAS IN
THE LOWER TEENS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A FRONT
SLIDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO RELAX FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. NONETHELESS... WINDS
SHOULD TURN MORE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AND NEAR TILLAMOOK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING
     TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 261104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
REMAINED MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. THE WARM
FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. NOW AND RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY...AND ALSO THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS ARE
STILL RISING AND FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT...SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INLAND. SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR ZONES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO MORE FLOOD CONCERNS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT 6000 TO 7000 FT. EXPECT RAIN AT
TIMES IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH WESTERN WA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXIT SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING GUSTY FRASER RIVER
OUTFLOW WINDS FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. SAGS SOUTH. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH
INTO WESTERN WA FRI NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL AND UNSTABLE AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALSO CLIPS WESTERN WA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO FORM A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE COOL NORTHERLY FRASER OUTFLOW MEETS THE MOIST
S/SW ONSHORE FLOW. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. BUT
THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE INTERIOR. TOUGH TO PIN THIS DOWN
EXACTLY BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH EXITING SAT MORNING WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER
WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN
TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW
BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER
THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH
MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAIN RATES HAVE DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.2 INCHES DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS WERE STILL COMMON FROM THE STILLAGUAMISH BASIN NORTHWARD...BUT
RATES THERE SHOULD DECREASE THIS MORNING. THE STILLAGUAMISH REACHED
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FLOODING IS STILL A SHORT TERM
CONCERN FOR THE NOOKSACK RIVER.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
BASIN -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH OR LESS. THE THREE FORKS OF THE
SNOQUALMIE RIVER APPEAR TO HAVE CRESTED...SO THE SNOQUALMIE AT THE
FALLS SHOULD CREST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CREST MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING ON THE
SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SKYKOMISH RIVER HAS
BEEN RUNNING WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN FALLING SOON. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED BY THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD HAVE SOME
FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING STORM TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE
36 HOURS FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL THE
COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON
MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 261104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
REMAINED MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. THE WARM
FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. NOW AND RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY...AND ALSO THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS ARE
STILL RISING AND FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT...SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INLAND. SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR ZONES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO MORE FLOOD CONCERNS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT 6000 TO 7000 FT. EXPECT RAIN AT
TIMES IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH WESTERN WA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXIT SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING GUSTY FRASER RIVER
OUTFLOW WINDS FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. SAGS SOUTH. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH
INTO WESTERN WA FRI NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL AND UNSTABLE AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALSO CLIPS WESTERN WA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO FORM A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE COOL NORTHERLY FRASER OUTFLOW MEETS THE MOIST
S/SW ONSHORE FLOW. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. BUT
THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE INTERIOR. TOUGH TO PIN THIS DOWN
EXACTLY BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH EXITING SAT MORNING WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER
WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN
TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW
BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER
THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH
MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAIN RATES HAVE DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.2 INCHES DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS WERE STILL COMMON FROM THE STILLAGUAMISH BASIN NORTHWARD...BUT
RATES THERE SHOULD DECREASE THIS MORNING. THE STILLAGUAMISH REACHED
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FLOODING IS STILL A SHORT TERM
CONCERN FOR THE NOOKSACK RIVER.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
BASIN -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH OR LESS. THE THREE FORKS OF THE
SNOQUALMIE RIVER APPEAR TO HAVE CRESTED...SO THE SNOQUALMIE AT THE
FALLS SHOULD CREST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CREST MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING ON THE
SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SKYKOMISH RIVER HAS
BEEN RUNNING WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN FALLING SOON. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED BY THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD HAVE SOME
FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING STORM TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE
36 HOURS FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL THE
COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON
MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 261104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
REMAINED MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. THE WARM
FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. NOW AND RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY...AND ALSO THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS ARE
STILL RISING AND FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT...SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INLAND. SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR ZONES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO MORE FLOOD CONCERNS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT 6000 TO 7000 FT. EXPECT RAIN AT
TIMES IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH WESTERN WA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXIT SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING GUSTY FRASER RIVER
OUTFLOW WINDS FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. SAGS SOUTH. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH
INTO WESTERN WA FRI NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL AND UNSTABLE AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALSO CLIPS WESTERN WA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO FORM A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE COOL NORTHERLY FRASER OUTFLOW MEETS THE MOIST
S/SW ONSHORE FLOW. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. BUT
THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE INTERIOR. TOUGH TO PIN THIS DOWN
EXACTLY BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH EXITING SAT MORNING WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER
WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN
TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW
BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER
THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH
MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAIN RATES HAVE DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.2 INCHES DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS WERE STILL COMMON FROM THE STILLAGUAMISH BASIN NORTHWARD...BUT
RATES THERE SHOULD DECREASE THIS MORNING. THE STILLAGUAMISH REACHED
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FLOODING IS STILL A SHORT TERM
CONCERN FOR THE NOOKSACK RIVER.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
BASIN -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH OR LESS. THE THREE FORKS OF THE
SNOQUALMIE RIVER APPEAR TO HAVE CRESTED...SO THE SNOQUALMIE AT THE
FALLS SHOULD CREST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CREST MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING ON THE
SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SKYKOMISH RIVER HAS
BEEN RUNNING WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN FALLING SOON. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED BY THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD HAVE SOME
FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING STORM TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE
36 HOURS FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL THE
COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON
MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

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WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 261104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
REMAINED MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. THE WARM
FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. NOW AND RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY...AND ALSO THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS ARE
STILL RISING AND FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT...SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INLAND. SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR ZONES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO MORE FLOOD CONCERNS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT 6000 TO 7000 FT. EXPECT RAIN AT
TIMES IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH WESTERN WA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXIT SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING GUSTY FRASER RIVER
OUTFLOW WINDS FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. SAGS SOUTH. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH
INTO WESTERN WA FRI NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL AND UNSTABLE AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALSO CLIPS WESTERN WA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO FORM A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE COOL NORTHERLY FRASER OUTFLOW MEETS THE MOIST
S/SW ONSHORE FLOW. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. BUT
THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE INTERIOR. TOUGH TO PIN THIS DOWN
EXACTLY BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH EXITING SAT MORNING WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER
WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN
TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW
BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER
THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH
MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAIN RATES HAVE DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.2 INCHES DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS WERE STILL COMMON FROM THE STILLAGUAMISH BASIN NORTHWARD...BUT
RATES THERE SHOULD DECREASE THIS MORNING. THE STILLAGUAMISH REACHED
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FLOODING IS STILL A SHORT TERM
CONCERN FOR THE NOOKSACK RIVER.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
BASIN -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH OR LESS. THE THREE FORKS OF THE
SNOQUALMIE RIVER APPEAR TO HAVE CRESTED...SO THE SNOQUALMIE AT THE
FALLS SHOULD CREST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CREST MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING ON THE
SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SKYKOMISH RIVER HAS
BEEN RUNNING WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN FALLING SOON. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED BY THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD HAVE SOME
FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING STORM TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE
36 HOURS FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL THE
COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON
MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 261042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Look for
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Look for
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Look for
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Look for
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions. SSome
snow has also been reported and seen on cameras about the
Waterville Plateau, near and north of the city of Waterville.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Lookf or
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere.  /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions. SSome
snow has also been reported and seen on cameras about the
Waterville Plateau, near and north of the city of Waterville.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Lookf or
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere.  /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions. SSome
snow has also been reported and seen on cameras about the
Waterville Plateau, near and north of the city of Waterville.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Lookf or
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere.  /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions. SSome
snow has also been reported and seen on cameras about the
Waterville Plateau, near and north of the city of Waterville.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Lookf or
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere.  /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 260530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND AT
8 PM WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING S OF THE FRONT AND REMAINING MAINLY
LIGHT FROM NEAR THE E ENTRANCE TO THE N INTERIOR. ALKI WAS REPORTING
WIND GUSTS TO 43 KT THIS PAST HOUR AND OTHER OBS SITES AROUND THE
SOUND ARE GUSTY AS WELL. RAIN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THE FRONT SO
ANOTHER INCH OR LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE N
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N OF THE WA/B.C. BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE N OF WA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AT TIMES IN THE OLYMPICS AND AREAS N OF PUGET
SOUND AND THE CASCADES BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

RAIN WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN WA. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
HEAVIER RAIN ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL RENEWING THE FLOOD THREAT
FOR THE SKOKOMISH BASIN AND ALSO PRONE RIVERS IN THE N CASCADES.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. IT WILL ALSO RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BUT THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL PROBABLY SHADOW PORTIONS OF
PUGET SOUND WITH LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLDER AIR MASS OVER B.C.
TRYING TO PUSH SWD. THE WLY FLOW WHICH STARTS OFF STRONG DURING THE
MORNING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CASCADES. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE IMPACT ON
RIVERS WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER ALL THE 00Z
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

COLDER AIR WILL BE DAMMING UP ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FRASER OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. SOME
MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SITUATION CLOSELY
AS THIS SET UP CAN SOMETIMES RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWLAND SNOW. WILL
REVIEW THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND
THE MENTION OF RAIN DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY.
WITH COOL DRY N FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM
THE FRASER VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES
COOL...AND N-NE WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CASCADES EXTENDED FROM
THE SNOQUALMIE BASIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES THIS EVENING...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOR THE EVENT
SO FAR HAS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNT RAINIER AREA...WHERE LOCALLY UP TO
7 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COWLITZ... NISQUALLY
AND CARBON RIVERS ALL FLOODED. THAT AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NISQUALLY AND CARBON
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND THE COWLITZ AT RANDLE
WILL CREST LATE THIS EVENING.

UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE BASINS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CASCADES...BUT SO FAR ONLY THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER IS FLOODING.
MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC
BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY AS THE
SNOW LEVEL REMAINS 7000 TO 8000 FT. SO OTHER RIVERS COULD STILL
FLOOD...AND IN FACT THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SNOQUALMIE AND
SKYKOMISH HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN. IN ADDITION THE ELWHA
RIVER...FLOWING OFF THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS...IS RISING MORE
QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND IT WILL NEED WATCHING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RENEWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING ON CASCADES RIVERS AND ALSO PERHAPS DRIVING THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE B.C. BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STABLE AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WRN WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO IMPROVE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM
BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO SHADOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT W/
GUSTS 30 KT...EASING TO 10 KT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT GALE FORCE WINDS
IN PUGET SOUND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB/MERCER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR PUGET SOUND THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE AND PUGET
     SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 260530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND AT
8 PM WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING S OF THE FRONT AND REMAINING MAINLY
LIGHT FROM NEAR THE E ENTRANCE TO THE N INTERIOR. ALKI WAS REPORTING
WIND GUSTS TO 43 KT THIS PAST HOUR AND OTHER OBS SITES AROUND THE
SOUND ARE GUSTY AS WELL. RAIN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THE FRONT SO
ANOTHER INCH OR LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE N
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N OF THE WA/B.C. BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE N OF WA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AT TIMES IN THE OLYMPICS AND AREAS N OF PUGET
SOUND AND THE CASCADES BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

RAIN WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN WA. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
HEAVIER RAIN ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL RENEWING THE FLOOD THREAT
FOR THE SKOKOMISH BASIN AND ALSO PRONE RIVERS IN THE N CASCADES.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. IT WILL ALSO RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BUT THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL PROBABLY SHADOW PORTIONS OF
PUGET SOUND WITH LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLDER AIR MASS OVER B.C.
TRYING TO PUSH SWD. THE WLY FLOW WHICH STARTS OFF STRONG DURING THE
MORNING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CASCADES. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE IMPACT ON
RIVERS WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER ALL THE 00Z
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

COLDER AIR WILL BE DAMMING UP ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FRASER OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. SOME
MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SITUATION CLOSELY
AS THIS SET UP CAN SOMETIMES RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWLAND SNOW. WILL
REVIEW THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND
THE MENTION OF RAIN DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY.
WITH COOL DRY N FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM
THE FRASER VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES
COOL...AND N-NE WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CASCADES EXTENDED FROM
THE SNOQUALMIE BASIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES THIS EVENING...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOR THE EVENT
SO FAR HAS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNT RAINIER AREA...WHERE LOCALLY UP TO
7 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COWLITZ... NISQUALLY
AND CARBON RIVERS ALL FLOODED. THAT AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NISQUALLY AND CARBON
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND THE COWLITZ AT RANDLE
WILL CREST LATE THIS EVENING.

UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE BASINS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CASCADES...BUT SO FAR ONLY THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER IS FLOODING.
MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC
BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY AS THE
SNOW LEVEL REMAINS 7000 TO 8000 FT. SO OTHER RIVERS COULD STILL
FLOOD...AND IN FACT THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SNOQUALMIE AND
SKYKOMISH HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN. IN ADDITION THE ELWHA
RIVER...FLOWING OFF THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS...IS RISING MORE
QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND IT WILL NEED WATCHING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RENEWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING ON CASCADES RIVERS AND ALSO PERHAPS DRIVING THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE B.C. BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STABLE AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WRN WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO IMPROVE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM
BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO SHADOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT W/
GUSTS 30 KT...EASING TO 10 KT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT GALE FORCE WINDS
IN PUGET SOUND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB/MERCER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR PUGET SOUND THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE AND PUGET
     SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 260530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND AT
8 PM WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING S OF THE FRONT AND REMAINING MAINLY
LIGHT FROM NEAR THE E ENTRANCE TO THE N INTERIOR. ALKI WAS REPORTING
WIND GUSTS TO 43 KT THIS PAST HOUR AND OTHER OBS SITES AROUND THE
SOUND ARE GUSTY AS WELL. RAIN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THE FRONT SO
ANOTHER INCH OR LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE N
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N OF THE WA/B.C. BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE N OF WA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AT TIMES IN THE OLYMPICS AND AREAS N OF PUGET
SOUND AND THE CASCADES BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

RAIN WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN WA. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
HEAVIER RAIN ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL RENEWING THE FLOOD THREAT
FOR THE SKOKOMISH BASIN AND ALSO PRONE RIVERS IN THE N CASCADES.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. IT WILL ALSO RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BUT THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL PROBABLY SHADOW PORTIONS OF
PUGET SOUND WITH LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLDER AIR MASS OVER B.C.
TRYING TO PUSH SWD. THE WLY FLOW WHICH STARTS OFF STRONG DURING THE
MORNING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CASCADES. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE IMPACT ON
RIVERS WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER ALL THE 00Z
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

COLDER AIR WILL BE DAMMING UP ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FRASER OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. SOME
MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SITUATION CLOSELY
AS THIS SET UP CAN SOMETIMES RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWLAND SNOW. WILL
REVIEW THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND
THE MENTION OF RAIN DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY.
WITH COOL DRY N FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM
THE FRASER VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES
COOL...AND N-NE WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CASCADES EXTENDED FROM
THE SNOQUALMIE BASIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES THIS EVENING...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOR THE EVENT
SO FAR HAS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNT RAINIER AREA...WHERE LOCALLY UP TO
7 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COWLITZ... NISQUALLY
AND CARBON RIVERS ALL FLOODED. THAT AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NISQUALLY AND CARBON
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND THE COWLITZ AT RANDLE
WILL CREST LATE THIS EVENING.

UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE BASINS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CASCADES...BUT SO FAR ONLY THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER IS FLOODING.
MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC
BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY AS THE
SNOW LEVEL REMAINS 7000 TO 8000 FT. SO OTHER RIVERS COULD STILL
FLOOD...AND IN FACT THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SNOQUALMIE AND
SKYKOMISH HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN. IN ADDITION THE ELWHA
RIVER...FLOWING OFF THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS...IS RISING MORE
QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND IT WILL NEED WATCHING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RENEWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING ON CASCADES RIVERS AND ALSO PERHAPS DRIVING THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE B.C. BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STABLE AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WRN WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO IMPROVE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM
BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO SHADOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT W/
GUSTS 30 KT...EASING TO 10 KT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT GALE FORCE WINDS
IN PUGET SOUND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB/MERCER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR PUGET SOUND THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE AND PUGET
     SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 260530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND AT
8 PM WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING S OF THE FRONT AND REMAINING MAINLY
LIGHT FROM NEAR THE E ENTRANCE TO THE N INTERIOR. ALKI WAS REPORTING
WIND GUSTS TO 43 KT THIS PAST HOUR AND OTHER OBS SITES AROUND THE
SOUND ARE GUSTY AS WELL. RAIN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THE FRONT SO
ANOTHER INCH OR LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE N
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N OF THE WA/B.C. BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE N OF WA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AT TIMES IN THE OLYMPICS AND AREAS N OF PUGET
SOUND AND THE CASCADES BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

RAIN WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN WA. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
HEAVIER RAIN ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL RENEWING THE FLOOD THREAT
FOR THE SKOKOMISH BASIN AND ALSO PRONE RIVERS IN THE N CASCADES.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. IT WILL ALSO RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BUT THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL PROBABLY SHADOW PORTIONS OF
PUGET SOUND WITH LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLDER AIR MASS OVER B.C.
TRYING TO PUSH SWD. THE WLY FLOW WHICH STARTS OFF STRONG DURING THE
MORNING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CASCADES. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE IMPACT ON
RIVERS WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER ALL THE 00Z
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

COLDER AIR WILL BE DAMMING UP ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FRASER OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. SOME
MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SITUATION CLOSELY
AS THIS SET UP CAN SOMETIMES RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWLAND SNOW. WILL
REVIEW THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND
THE MENTION OF RAIN DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY.
WITH COOL DRY N FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM
THE FRASER VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES
COOL...AND N-NE WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CASCADES EXTENDED FROM
THE SNOQUALMIE BASIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES THIS EVENING...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOR THE EVENT
SO FAR HAS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNT RAINIER AREA...WHERE LOCALLY UP TO
7 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COWLITZ... NISQUALLY
AND CARBON RIVERS ALL FLOODED. THAT AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NISQUALLY AND CARBON
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND THE COWLITZ AT RANDLE
WILL CREST LATE THIS EVENING.

UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE BASINS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CASCADES...BUT SO FAR ONLY THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER IS FLOODING.
MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC
BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY AS THE
SNOW LEVEL REMAINS 7000 TO 8000 FT. SO OTHER RIVERS COULD STILL
FLOOD...AND IN FACT THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SNOQUALMIE AND
SKYKOMISH HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN. IN ADDITION THE ELWHA
RIVER...FLOWING OFF THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS...IS RISING MORE
QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND IT WILL NEED WATCHING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RENEWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING ON CASCADES RIVERS AND ALSO PERHAPS DRIVING THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE B.C. BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STABLE AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WRN WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO IMPROVE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM
BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO SHADOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT W/
GUSTS 30 KT...EASING TO 10 KT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT GALE FORCE WINDS
IN PUGET SOUND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB/MERCER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR PUGET SOUND THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE AND PUGET
     SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KPQR 260511
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
909 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE
COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN...MOSTLY OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED...OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WITH RAIN RATES OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR. AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING
SKIES PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...SHOULD SEE SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ANY VISIBILITY BELOW ABOUT 1/2 MILE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. FOR THE
FORECAST UPDATE...TOOK OUT POPS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TAPERED RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OFF SLIGHTLY
FASTER. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON TODAY`S OBSERVED HIGHS AND A PERSISTENT PATTERN.
FINALLY...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT BASED
ON LATEST MODELS. EXPECT WINDY BUT SUB-WARNING CONDITIONS. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER
THE TOP. KLGX RADAR INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA.
HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR
TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5
INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE
RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE THE COAST HAS LARGELY
REMAINED IFR OR WORSE THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING
THE SITUATION WELL AT ALL AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
REMAINED. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT TRANSITS
THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS ON DECREASING. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 50S AT THIS HOUR BUT SHOULD LOWER SOME THIS EVENING. HAVE
DOUBTS DEW POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP AHEAD OF TEMPERATURES AND
EXPECT TO SEE FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...FOR SPECIFIC AREAS AND DECIDED AGAIN INCLUSION IN
THE TAF PACKAGES ASIDE FROM KSLE AND KEUG. REGARDLESS...HAVE
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WHERE FOG
DOESN`T. DONT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR UNTIL PERHAPS
AFTER 19-21Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP SOME WITH ENOUGH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR A LOWER STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A 015 TO 020 DECK WILL REMAIN
UNTIL AROUND 20Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT THROUGH 27/06Z JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS HAVE STAYED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE HRRR MODEL HAVING THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME. THAT MODEL DOES NOT BRING A THREAT
FOR CRITERIA LEVEL GUSTS BACK UP UNTIL AFTER 5 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TIME
BEING. SEAS ARE ALSO RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE
FORECAST SO HAVE ALSO LOWERED JUST A BIT.

THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AS A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAVING ISSUED A GALE WARNING.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. JBONK/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 9
     AM PST WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     10 PM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 260511
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
909 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE
COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN...MOSTLY OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED...OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WITH RAIN RATES OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR. AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING
SKIES PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...SHOULD SEE SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ANY VISIBILITY BELOW ABOUT 1/2 MILE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. FOR THE
FORECAST UPDATE...TOOK OUT POPS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TAPERED RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OFF SLIGHTLY
FASTER. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON TODAY`S OBSERVED HIGHS AND A PERSISTENT PATTERN.
FINALLY...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT BASED
ON LATEST MODELS. EXPECT WINDY BUT SUB-WARNING CONDITIONS. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER
THE TOP. KLGX RADAR INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA.
HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR
TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5
INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE
RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE THE COAST HAS LARGELY
REMAINED IFR OR WORSE THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING
THE SITUATION WELL AT ALL AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
REMAINED. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT TRANSITS
THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS ON DECREASING. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 50S AT THIS HOUR BUT SHOULD LOWER SOME THIS EVENING. HAVE
DOUBTS DEW POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP AHEAD OF TEMPERATURES AND
EXPECT TO SEE FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...FOR SPECIFIC AREAS AND DECIDED AGAIN INCLUSION IN
THE TAF PACKAGES ASIDE FROM KSLE AND KEUG. REGARDLESS...HAVE
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WHERE FOG
DOESN`T. DONT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR UNTIL PERHAPS
AFTER 19-21Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP SOME WITH ENOUGH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR A LOWER STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A 015 TO 020 DECK WILL REMAIN
UNTIL AROUND 20Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT THROUGH 27/06Z JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS HAVE STAYED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE HRRR MODEL HAVING THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME. THAT MODEL DOES NOT BRING A THREAT
FOR CRITERIA LEVEL GUSTS BACK UP UNTIL AFTER 5 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TIME
BEING. SEAS ARE ALSO RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE
FORECAST SO HAVE ALSO LOWERED JUST A BIT.

THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AS A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAVING ISSUED A GALE WARNING.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. JBONK/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 9
     AM PST WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     10 PM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260041
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update...Snow levels are slower to rise for the Okanogan valley
and the Methow valley than previously thought. Observers are
indicating localized moderate to heavy snow. As such a winter
weather advisory for snow has been issued for these locations.

Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built
into the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the
 forecast area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air
 advection they should remain high. So precipitation will be as
 rain. The exception will be across the northern mountains and
 dropping south along the Panhandle and the Okanogan and Methow
 valleys where the cooler and drier air has moved in. Many of the
 valley locations will most likely wet-bulb (evaporative cooling)
 to right around freezing and the some of the valleys up near the
 Canadian border may see wet snow accumulation of 1-3 inches
 overnight. The mountain will locally pick up 5-8 additional
 inches. So the Winter Weather advisory will be extended through
 Wednesday morning and issued down to the valley floor. A bigger
 challenge will be Shoshone county. For the most part snow levels
 are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air has remained in the
 vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing up there all day and
 new guidance indicates that snow level for that area will not
 rise above Pass level until after 12z so that advisory will also
 be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Okanogan
     Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260041
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update...Snow levels are slower to rise for the Okanogan valley
and the Methow valley than previously thought. Observers are
indicating localized moderate to heavy snow. As such a winter
weather advisory for snow has been issued for these locations.

Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built
into the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the
 forecast area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air
 advection they should remain high. So precipitation will be as
 rain. The exception will be across the northern mountains and
 dropping south along the Panhandle and the Okanogan and Methow
 valleys where the cooler and drier air has moved in. Many of the
 valley locations will most likely wet-bulb (evaporative cooling)
 to right around freezing and the some of the valleys up near the
 Canadian border may see wet snow accumulation of 1-3 inches
 overnight. The mountain will locally pick up 5-8 additional
 inches. So the Winter Weather advisory will be extended through
 Wednesday morning and issued down to the valley floor. A bigger
 challenge will be Shoshone county. For the most part snow levels
 are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air has remained in the
 vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing up there all day and
 new guidance indicates that snow level for that area will not
 rise above Pass level until after 12z so that advisory will also
 be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Okanogan
     Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 260014
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
414 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT OVER W WA LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY
MOVED UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
IS CONCENTRATED UP OVER WHATCOM COUNTY AND THE N CASCADES. HOWEVER W
FLOW IS STILL BRINGING SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN TO THE REST OF THE W
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE BORDER TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE N CASCADES. A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE W WA LOWLANDS TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY S WINDS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A LULL DAY WITH A WEAKER WARM FRONT STILL
UP OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND THE NEXT FRONT STILL OFFSHORE. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS OFFSHORE FRONT ALONG 140W NEAR THE MAIN LOW NEAR
40N/148W. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT ACROSS W
WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BESIDES ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN...THE STRONG SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...OR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS MEANS
RAIN AT TIMES AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWLANDS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND POTENTIALLY MORE RIVER FLOODING FOR N
CASCADES RIVERS AND POSSIBLY SOME OLYMPIC RIVERS.

THE OLD WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...BEING PUSHED ALONG BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN N FLOW ALOFT OVER AK AND NORTHERN B.C.  THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FROM N TO S ACROSS W WA ON
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING FROM THE N. COLD NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BRINGING A COLD DRY AIR MASS AND BREEZY WINDS TO W WA.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. KAM

.LONG TERM...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND THE MENTION OF RAIN
DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY. WITH COOL DRY N FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM THE FRASER
VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES COOL...AND N-NE
WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
FLOODING ON SEVERAL RIVERS. IN PARTICULAR THE PUYALLUP AT ORTING HAS
REACHED MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH TO
NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES HAS
DIMINISHED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE N CASCADES
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT MORE AND SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN B.C.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING OVER THE N CASCADES...BUT NOT HEAVY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...6000-7000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW...45-55 KT...WILL IMPACT THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES FROM
SNOQUALMIE PASS NORTHWARD. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD WHICH MAY DRIVE SOME OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES RIVERS TO
FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY...INCLUDING THE NOOKSACK...SKAGIT...
STILLAGUAMISH AND SNOQUALMIE/SNOHOMISH BASINS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS MAY ALSO
REACH FLOOD STAGE...MOST NOTABLY THE SKOKOMISH AND POSSIBLY THE
BOGACHIEL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...IN THE 5500 TO 6500
FOOT RANGE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND AREA THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN
TO IMPROVE NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE CURRENT IFR TO LOW END
MVFR AROUND 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH PAST THE TERMINAL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 260014
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
414 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT OVER W WA LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY
MOVED UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
IS CONCENTRATED UP OVER WHATCOM COUNTY AND THE N CASCADES. HOWEVER W
FLOW IS STILL BRINGING SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN TO THE REST OF THE W
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE BORDER TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE N CASCADES. A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE W WA LOWLANDS TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY S WINDS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A LULL DAY WITH A WEAKER WARM FRONT STILL
UP OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND THE NEXT FRONT STILL OFFSHORE. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS OFFSHORE FRONT ALONG 140W NEAR THE MAIN LOW NEAR
40N/148W. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT ACROSS W
WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BESIDES ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN...THE STRONG SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...OR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS MEANS
RAIN AT TIMES AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWLANDS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND POTENTIALLY MORE RIVER FLOODING FOR N
CASCADES RIVERS AND POSSIBLY SOME OLYMPIC RIVERS.

THE OLD WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...BEING PUSHED ALONG BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN N FLOW ALOFT OVER AK AND NORTHERN B.C.  THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FROM N TO S ACROSS W WA ON
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING FROM THE N. COLD NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BRINGING A COLD DRY AIR MASS AND BREEZY WINDS TO W WA.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. KAM

.LONG TERM...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND THE MENTION OF RAIN
DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY. WITH COOL DRY N FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM THE FRASER
VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES COOL...AND N-NE
WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
FLOODING ON SEVERAL RIVERS. IN PARTICULAR THE PUYALLUP AT ORTING HAS
REACHED MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH TO
NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES HAS
DIMINISHED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE N CASCADES
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT MORE AND SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN B.C.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING OVER THE N CASCADES...BUT NOT HEAVY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...6000-7000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW...45-55 KT...WILL IMPACT THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES FROM
SNOQUALMIE PASS NORTHWARD. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD WHICH MAY DRIVE SOME OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES RIVERS TO
FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY...INCLUDING THE NOOKSACK...SKAGIT...
STILLAGUAMISH AND SNOQUALMIE/SNOHOMISH BASINS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS MAY ALSO
REACH FLOOD STAGE...MOST NOTABLY THE SKOKOMISH AND POSSIBLY THE
BOGACHIEL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...IN THE 5500 TO 6500
FOOT RANGE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND AREA THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN
TO IMPROVE NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE CURRENT IFR TO LOW END
MVFR AROUND 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH PAST THE TERMINAL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 260014
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
414 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT OVER W WA LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY
MOVED UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
IS CONCENTRATED UP OVER WHATCOM COUNTY AND THE N CASCADES. HOWEVER W
FLOW IS STILL BRINGING SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN TO THE REST OF THE W
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE BORDER TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE N CASCADES. A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE W WA LOWLANDS TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY S WINDS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A LULL DAY WITH A WEAKER WARM FRONT STILL
UP OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND THE NEXT FRONT STILL OFFSHORE. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS OFFSHORE FRONT ALONG 140W NEAR THE MAIN LOW NEAR
40N/148W. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT ACROSS W
WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BESIDES ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN...THE STRONG SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...OR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS MEANS
RAIN AT TIMES AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWLANDS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND POTENTIALLY MORE RIVER FLOODING FOR N
CASCADES RIVERS AND POSSIBLY SOME OLYMPIC RIVERS.

THE OLD WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...BEING PUSHED ALONG BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN N FLOW ALOFT OVER AK AND NORTHERN B.C.  THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FROM N TO S ACROSS W WA ON
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING FROM THE N. COLD NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BRINGING A COLD DRY AIR MASS AND BREEZY WINDS TO W WA.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. KAM

.LONG TERM...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND THE MENTION OF RAIN
DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY. WITH COOL DRY N FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM THE FRASER
VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES COOL...AND N-NE
WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
FLOODING ON SEVERAL RIVERS. IN PARTICULAR THE PUYALLUP AT ORTING HAS
REACHED MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH TO
NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES HAS
DIMINISHED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE N CASCADES
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT MORE AND SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN B.C.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING OVER THE N CASCADES...BUT NOT HEAVY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...6000-7000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW...45-55 KT...WILL IMPACT THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES FROM
SNOQUALMIE PASS NORTHWARD. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD WHICH MAY DRIVE SOME OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES RIVERS TO
FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY...INCLUDING THE NOOKSACK...SKAGIT...
STILLAGUAMISH AND SNOQUALMIE/SNOHOMISH BASINS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS MAY ALSO
REACH FLOOD STAGE...MOST NOTABLY THE SKOKOMISH AND POSSIBLY THE
BOGACHIEL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...IN THE 5500 TO 6500
FOOT RANGE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND AREA THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN
TO IMPROVE NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE CURRENT IFR TO LOW END
MVFR AROUND 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH PAST THE TERMINAL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 260014
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
414 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT OVER W WA LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY
MOVED UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
IS CONCENTRATED UP OVER WHATCOM COUNTY AND THE N CASCADES. HOWEVER W
FLOW IS STILL BRINGING SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN TO THE REST OF THE W
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE BORDER TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE N CASCADES. A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE W WA LOWLANDS TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY S WINDS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A LULL DAY WITH A WEAKER WARM FRONT STILL
UP OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND THE NEXT FRONT STILL OFFSHORE. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS OFFSHORE FRONT ALONG 140W NEAR THE MAIN LOW NEAR
40N/148W. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT ACROSS W
WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BESIDES ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN...THE STRONG SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...OR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS MEANS
RAIN AT TIMES AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWLANDS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND POTENTIALLY MORE RIVER FLOODING FOR N
CASCADES RIVERS AND POSSIBLY SOME OLYMPIC RIVERS.

THE OLD WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...BEING PUSHED ALONG BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN N FLOW ALOFT OVER AK AND NORTHERN B.C.  THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FROM N TO S ACROSS W WA ON
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING FROM THE N. COLD NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BRINGING A COLD DRY AIR MASS AND BREEZY WINDS TO W WA.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. KAM

.LONG TERM...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND THE MENTION OF RAIN
DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY. WITH COOL DRY N FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM THE FRASER
VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES COOL...AND N-NE
WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
FLOODING ON SEVERAL RIVERS. IN PARTICULAR THE PUYALLUP AT ORTING HAS
REACHED MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH TO
NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES HAS
DIMINISHED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE N CASCADES
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT MORE AND SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN B.C.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING OVER THE N CASCADES...BUT NOT HEAVY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...6000-7000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW...45-55 KT...WILL IMPACT THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES FROM
SNOQUALMIE PASS NORTHWARD. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD WHICH MAY DRIVE SOME OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES RIVERS TO
FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY...INCLUDING THE NOOKSACK...SKAGIT...
STILLAGUAMISH AND SNOQUALMIE/SNOHOMISH BASINS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS MAY ALSO
REACH FLOOD STAGE...MOST NOTABLY THE SKOKOMISH AND POSSIBLY THE
BOGACHIEL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...IN THE 5500 TO 6500
FOOT RANGE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND AREA THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN
TO IMPROVE NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE CURRENT IFR TO LOW END
MVFR AROUND 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH PAST THE TERMINAL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KOTX 252230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built into
the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the forecast
 area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air advection
 they should remain high. So precipitation will be as rain. The
 exception will be across the northern mountains and dropping
 south along the Panhandle where the cooler and drier air moved
 in. Many of the valley locations will most likely wet-bulb
 (evaporative cooling) to right around freezing and the some of
 the valleys up near the Canadian border may see wet snow
 accumulation of 1-3 inches overnight. The mountain will locally
 pick up 5-8 additional inches. So the Winter Weather advisory
 will be extended through Wednesday morning and issued down to the
 valley floor. A bigger challenge will be Shoshone county. For the
 most part snow levels are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air
 has remained in the vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing
 up there all day and new guidance indicates that snow level for
 that area will not rise above Pass level until after 12z so that
 advisory will also be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass
 area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast discussion as we
expect a pretty steady rain today south of a line from the north
Cascades to near or just south of Mullan Pass. Expect
precipitation to shift back to the north this evening and
overnight. Snow levels keep precipitation as rain at all TAF
sites. The abundance of moisture will result in stratus and some
fog for the TAF sites with conditions wildly fluctuating between
MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of heavier precipitation moves
through the region. Southwest winds will be on the increase
overnight with gusts 15-25kts.Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 252230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built into
the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the forecast
 area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air advection
 they should remain high. So precipitation will be as rain. The
 exception will be across the northern mountains and dropping
 south along the Panhandle where the cooler and drier air moved
 in. Many of the valley locations will most likely wet-bulb
 (evaporative cooling) to right around freezing and the some of
 the valleys up near the Canadian border may see wet snow
 accumulation of 1-3 inches overnight. The mountain will locally
 pick up 5-8 additional inches. So the Winter Weather advisory
 will be extended through Wednesday morning and issued down to the
 valley floor. A bigger challenge will be Shoshone county. For the
 most part snow levels are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air
 has remained in the vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing
 up there all day and new guidance indicates that snow level for
 that area will not rise above Pass level until after 12z so that
 advisory will also be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass
 area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast discussion as we
expect a pretty steady rain today south of a line from the north
Cascades to near or just south of Mullan Pass. Expect
precipitation to shift back to the north this evening and
overnight. Snow levels keep precipitation as rain at all TAF
sites. The abundance of moisture will result in stratus and some
fog for the TAF sites with conditions wildly fluctuating between
MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of heavier precipitation moves
through the region. Southwest winds will be on the increase
overnight with gusts 15-25kts.Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 252230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built into
the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the forecast
 area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air advection
 they should remain high. So precipitation will be as rain. The
 exception will be across the northern mountains and dropping
 south along the Panhandle where the cooler and drier air moved
 in. Many of the valley locations will most likely wet-bulb
 (evaporative cooling) to right around freezing and the some of
 the valleys up near the Canadian border may see wet snow
 accumulation of 1-3 inches overnight. The mountain will locally
 pick up 5-8 additional inches. So the Winter Weather advisory
 will be extended through Wednesday morning and issued down to the
 valley floor. A bigger challenge will be Shoshone county. For the
 most part snow levels are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air
 has remained in the vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing
 up there all day and new guidance indicates that snow level for
 that area will not rise above Pass level until after 12z so that
 advisory will also be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass
 area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast discussion as we
expect a pretty steady rain today south of a line from the north
Cascades to near or just south of Mullan Pass. Expect
precipitation to shift back to the north this evening and
overnight. Snow levels keep precipitation as rain at all TAF
sites. The abundance of moisture will result in stratus and some
fog for the TAF sites with conditions wildly fluctuating between
MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of heavier precipitation moves
through the region. Southwest winds will be on the increase
overnight with gusts 15-25kts.Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 252230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built into
the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the forecast
 area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air advection
 they should remain high. So precipitation will be as rain. The
 exception will be across the northern mountains and dropping
 south along the Panhandle where the cooler and drier air moved
 in. Many of the valley locations will most likely wet-bulb
 (evaporative cooling) to right around freezing and the some of
 the valleys up near the Canadian border may see wet snow
 accumulation of 1-3 inches overnight. The mountain will locally
 pick up 5-8 additional inches. So the Winter Weather advisory
 will be extended through Wednesday morning and issued down to the
 valley floor. A bigger challenge will be Shoshone county. For the
 most part snow levels are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air
 has remained in the vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing
 up there all day and new guidance indicates that snow level for
 that area will not rise above Pass level until after 12z so that
 advisory will also be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass
 area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast discussion as we
expect a pretty steady rain today south of a line from the north
Cascades to near or just south of Mullan Pass. Expect
precipitation to shift back to the north this evening and
overnight. Snow levels keep precipitation as rain at all TAF
sites. The abundance of moisture will result in stratus and some
fog for the TAF sites with conditions wildly fluctuating between
MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of heavier precipitation moves
through the region. Southwest winds will be on the increase
overnight with gusts 15-25kts.Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 252217
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
217 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS
WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER THE TOP. KLGX RADAR
INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA. HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS.
RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5 INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL
BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERWENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS
RESULTING IN A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE COAST HAS IFR/MVFR
CIGS...AND INLAND AREAS ARE VFR/MVFR. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH COAST AND KAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COAST. KONP HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO WED MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING. THEN EXPECT CIGS TO CRASH
AND VISIBILITIES TO REDUCE AS FOG DEVELOPS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CLOUD
BREAKS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER THIS EVENING TO MVFR. IF CLEARING DOES
OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS WILL
HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 252217
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
217 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS
WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER THE TOP. KLGX RADAR
INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA. HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS.
RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5 INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL
BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERWENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS
RESULTING IN A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE COAST HAS IFR/MVFR
CIGS...AND INLAND AREAS ARE VFR/MVFR. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH COAST AND KAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COAST. KONP HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO WED MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING. THEN EXPECT CIGS TO CRASH
AND VISIBILITIES TO REDUCE AS FOG DEVELOPS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CLOUD
BREAKS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER THIS EVENING TO MVFR. IF CLEARING DOES
OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS WILL
HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251857
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1057 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and rainy conditions are expected today with the southern and
central Idaho Panhandle receiving rain for much of the day. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight into Wednesday bringing a break
in the heavy mountain snow. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated were made to the forecast today...chiefly to reduce the
chance of precipitation and amount across the northeast zones and
slightly increase pops and raise amounts for areas further to the
south. A shortwave is moving over the ridge and had effectively
shifted the brunt of the moisture further south than previously
expected. This wave is also allowing cooler air to filter into
the region and temperatures for the northern zones have been
cooled off several degrees for today. Rain fall amounts have been
quite impressive since last night. Amounts range from around a
quarter inch to close to 2 inches for the Cascades and a quarter
inch to just over an inch for the central and north Panhandle
mountains.

The cooler air filtering into the northern valleys may result in
several hours of snow this evening before turning over to rain by
morning. otherwise expect wet conditions tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast discussion as we
expect a pretty steady rain today south of a line from the north
Cascades to near or just south of Mullan Pass. Expectprecipitation
to shift back to the north this evening and overnight. Snow levels
keep precipitation as rain at all TAF sites. The abundance of
moisture will result in stratus and some fog for the TAF sites
with conditions wildly fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and
back as bands of heavier precipitation moves through the region.
Southwest winds will be on the increase overnight with gusts
15-25kts.Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  37  49  42  49  38 /  60 100  40  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  36  48  40  46  38 /  70 100  80  40  50  30
Pullman        50  43  53  44  52  41 / 100 100  20  20  20  30
Lewiston       49  44  59  47  54  43 / 100  90  10  10  20  40
Colville       37  34  46  38  45  36 /  20 100  70  60  40  30
Sandpoint      37  33  44  37  42  35 /  30 100 100  70  70  50
Kellogg        38  35  43  39  42  36 /  90 100  90  50  60  60
Moses Lake     39  39  55  45  53  39 /  40  60   0  10  10  20
Wenatchee      41  38  50  43  48  39 /  30  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           38  33  44  37  43  34 /  80  90  60  30  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 251740
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAINY BREEZY WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A
RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING MORE
RAINY WINDY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. RAIN WILL
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
COOLER DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER W WA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE CASCADES. SO FAR A STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY JET
PASSING S OF THE OLYMPICS HAS BEEN SLAMMING INTO THE CASCADES S OF
SNOQUALMIE PASS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. 24 HOUR PRECIP OVER THE
CASCADES FROM STEVENS PASS SOUTHWARD HAS RANGED FROM 2-5 INCHES WITH
THE 5 INCH BULLSEYES AROUND MT RAINIER.

THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE NEAR
40N/150W...ACROSS A BROAD FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. MODELS STILL AGREE ON SHIFTING THE WARM
FRONT NORTH TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THIS EVENING. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
DIMINISHING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 21Z AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS
N. MODELS SEEM TO MOVE THE FRONT QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT MOST OF THE
REST OF THE CASCADES DO NOT GET AS MUCH HEAVY RAIN AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE FRONT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BORDER SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE OVER FAR N CASCADES TONIGHT.

OVER THE LOWLANDS...RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES N. RAIN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE UP AROUND
BELLINGHAM WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL IN THE VICINITY.

A COLD FRONT ORIGINATING FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS W WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUE BEHIND IT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE
LAST COLD FRONT MOVING S DOWN THE B.C. COAST FINALLY CROSSES THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MORE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE N CASCADES AND OVER THE OLYMPICS. THE LOWLANDS
WILL GET RAIN...BUT PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION WILL BE SHADOWED
BY THE OLYMPICS AT TIMES.

ALL THE WARM ADVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS NEAR 50 AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
N INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 AM AFD...PRECIPITATION
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD DECREASE ON FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THAT DIGS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA PRODUCES
NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. THE DAYS SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY. WE WILL KEEP A
LOW-END CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOL DRY SPELL
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STRONG LOW LEVEL W FLOW ALOFT HAS DROPPED 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT STEVENS PASS
SOUTHWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE MT RAINIER AREA.
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNING HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED...AND A FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THE CASCADES...INCLUDING THE COWLITZ...PUYALLUP NEAR
ORTING...SNOQUALMIE... TOLT...SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...
STILLAGUAMISH...AND NOOKSACK RIVERS.


THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MT RAINIER AREA. RAIN WILL DIMINISH THERE AS
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA SHIFTS N...REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER
EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TO MOVE THE FRONT FAST ENOUGH SO
THAT ONLY MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH CASCADES TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT WHICH
COULD ALLOW MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE N CASCADES IN WHATCOM
AND SKAGIT COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 0.75-1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE
FROM 03Z-15Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...FROM ROUGHLY 6000 TO
8000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING TO 5000-6000 FEET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A LULL IN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SW DIRECTION SHOULD
PUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES WITH ANOTHER
3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
GIVE LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST
TERMINALS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REACH THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CEILINGS AROUND 005 WITH VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN -RA BR. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ABOUT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY
RISING TO P6SM AND CIGS RISING TO 008-012. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT 00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHTER INLAND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 251740
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAINY BREEZY WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A
RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING MORE
RAINY WINDY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. RAIN WILL
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
COOLER DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER W WA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE CASCADES. SO FAR A STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY JET
PASSING S OF THE OLYMPICS HAS BEEN SLAMMING INTO THE CASCADES S OF
SNOQUALMIE PASS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. 24 HOUR PRECIP OVER THE
CASCADES FROM STEVENS PASS SOUTHWARD HAS RANGED FROM 2-5 INCHES WITH
THE 5 INCH BULLSEYES AROUND MT RAINIER.

THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE NEAR
40N/150W...ACROSS A BROAD FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. MODELS STILL AGREE ON SHIFTING THE WARM
FRONT NORTH TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THIS EVENING. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
DIMINISHING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 21Z AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS
N. MODELS SEEM TO MOVE THE FRONT QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT MOST OF THE
REST OF THE CASCADES DO NOT GET AS MUCH HEAVY RAIN AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE FRONT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BORDER SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE OVER FAR N CASCADES TONIGHT.

OVER THE LOWLANDS...RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES N. RAIN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE UP AROUND
BELLINGHAM WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL IN THE VICINITY.

A COLD FRONT ORIGINATING FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS W WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUE BEHIND IT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE
LAST COLD FRONT MOVING S DOWN THE B.C. COAST FINALLY CROSSES THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MORE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE N CASCADES AND OVER THE OLYMPICS. THE LOWLANDS
WILL GET RAIN...BUT PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION WILL BE SHADOWED
BY THE OLYMPICS AT TIMES.

ALL THE WARM ADVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS NEAR 50 AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
N INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 AM AFD...PRECIPITATION
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD DECREASE ON FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THAT DIGS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA PRODUCES
NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. THE DAYS SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY. WE WILL KEEP A
LOW-END CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOL DRY SPELL
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STRONG LOW LEVEL W FLOW ALOFT HAS DROPPED 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT STEVENS PASS
SOUTHWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE MT RAINIER AREA.
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNING HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED...AND A FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THE CASCADES...INCLUDING THE COWLITZ...PUYALLUP NEAR
ORTING...SNOQUALMIE... TOLT...SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...
STILLAGUAMISH...AND NOOKSACK RIVERS.


THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MT RAINIER AREA. RAIN WILL DIMINISH THERE AS
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA SHIFTS N...REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER
EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TO MOVE THE FRONT FAST ENOUGH SO
THAT ONLY MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH CASCADES TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT WHICH
COULD ALLOW MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE N CASCADES IN WHATCOM
AND SKAGIT COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 0.75-1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE
FROM 03Z-15Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...FROM ROUGHLY 6000 TO
8000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING TO 5000-6000 FEET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A LULL IN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SW DIRECTION SHOULD
PUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES WITH ANOTHER
3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
GIVE LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST
TERMINALS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REACH THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CEILINGS AROUND 005 WITH VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN -RA BR. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ABOUT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY
RISING TO P6SM AND CIGS RISING TO 008-012. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT 00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHTER INLAND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 251220
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and rainy conditions are expected today with the southern and
central Idaho Panhandle receiving rain for much of the day. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight into Wednesday bringing a break
in the heavy mountain snow. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Rain is expected for most of the day and into
the night over the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. We will
be monitoring rain gauges over Shoshone, Latah, and Benewah
counties closely over the next 24 hours. Rain amounts today and
tonight will have a good chance of exceeding an inch over the
southern half of Shoshone county with a half to three quarters of
an inch in Benewah and Latah counties. Additional run-off from
mountain snow melt and poor absorption due to potentially frozen
ground may cause creeks and small streams to rise during the next
day or two.

A plume of deep level moisture is overtopping a flat upper level
ridge of high pressure this morning. The 2 AM water vapor
satellite imagery shows a well defined shortwave tracking through
southern Alberta leading to an increase in synoptic scale lift
over the Idaho Panhandle today. The Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie,
Clearwater Mountains and rising terrain of the Idaho Palouse will
be orographically favored as moisture rich northwesterly flow
remains focused over these areas through this evening. The strong
mid-level flow will also produce significant "slop-over"
precipitation over the East Slopes of the Cascades today in places
like Mazama, Stehekin and Plain. The snow pack in the high
elevations of the Cascades is probably deep enough to soak up a
good portion of the rain, but we will be closely monitoring the
Stehekin River and the smaller tributaries of the Wenatchee and
Similkameen over the next couple of days.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect over the mountains of
Northeast Washington and the mountains of the Northern and Central
Panhandle. Precipitation intensities have decreased around Priest
Lake, Metaline Falls and Sandpoint this morning as the mid-level
flow has become more northwesterly cutting off much of the
isentropic lift. More mid and high elevation snow is expected
tonight, but we may discontinue the advisory today since there
will be about 12 to 15 hours of little additional accumulation.

Wednesday: A warm front will surge northward on Wednesday pushing
the axis of heaviest precipitation into southern British Columbia.
Snow levels over north Idaho and northeast Washington will also
rise above 5000 feet on Wednesday leading to a transition from
snow to rain over the mountains around Sandpoint and Priest Lake.
Mild southerly winds will push temperatures into the upper 40s to
upper 50s region wide. The mild temperatures should improve road
conditions over the passes and travel conditions should be good
leading up to a busy holiday travel period Wednesday and Thursday.
/GKoch

Thursday through Saturday night...Flattened out ridging in the
region at this point allows the progressive flow to continue on.
The flow becomes more progressive and the ridge continues to
flatten and allow the baroclinic band/moisture source feeding up
into it to sag south as well and allow for cool northerly winds to
filter down behind it but slowly. So the moisture streaming
through the flat ridge keep high pops over parts of the East
Slopes of the North Cacades, Northern Mountains, and the Idaho
Panhandle with hint of a rain-shadow in the form of lower pops in
between for a good chunk of the Columbia Basin and a few other
lowland and valley locations close to it. Late Friday night into
Saturday the cold air and northerly winds behind the exiting
baroclinic band make good progress into the region allowing for a
substantial decrease in pops from north to south along with the
cooling. If all goes according to the models the baroclinic
band/frontal zone remains to the South of most of the forecast
area Saturday night allowing for further decrease in pops and
trending toward a much drier forecast to the north with continued
cold northerly/northeasterly winds maintaining influence. Forecast
temperatures depict this scenario with a gradual cooling trend.
Other issues of note would be the continuation of breezy/gusty
south to southwest winds Thursday through Friday with due to upper
level jet placement nearby. /Pelatti

Sunday through Tuesday: This period is expected to be wet and
cold. A Low pressure system off the coast of Oregon bring
widespread showers to the region. The temperatures are expected to
be near freezing and the precip is expected to be a wet snow as of
now. As the period gets closer and more model runs, this will
hopefully become more clear on the precip type. By late Monday, a
dry trough pushes into the region from the Northwest and decreases
the precip chances for Tuesday. The temperatures for this period
are expected to have highs near 30 and lows in the mid teens. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A persistent rain is expected for southeast Washington
and the southern Idaho Panhandle today into early evening. The
abundance of moisture will likely produce low stratus over much of
north Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Ceilings between
500 and 1500 feet will likely occur at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW
until a warm front arrives after 06z. Increased mixing and the
rain retreating northward should help to improve ceilings late
tonight. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  37  48  38  49  38 /  60  70  30  30  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  41  36  46  36  46  38 /  70  90  50  40  40  30
Pullman        49  44  52  39  52  41 / 100 100  10  10  30  30
Lewiston       53  45  56  42  54  43 / 100  90  10  10  20  40
Colville       39  33  44  35  45  36 /  40  80  40  60  60  30
Sandpoint      39  33  42  33  42  35 /  50  90  80  70  70  50
Kellogg        39  35  42  36  42  36 / 100 100  80  50  60  60
Moses Lake     47  40  53  39  53  39 /  30  20   0  10  10  20
Wenatchee      46  39  50  38  48  39 /  30  20  10  10  30  30
Omak           39  34  44  34  43  34 /  80  60  20  30  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 251156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAINY BREEZY WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AFTER A RELATIVE LULL WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE RAINY WINDY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. RAIN WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND COLDER DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MOIST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE ALONG 130W. THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
RENEWED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND TEMPERATURES ROSE SLIGHTLY INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A BAROCLINIC BAND CARRYING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT THE BAND WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WILL RECEIVE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THIS MORNING -- UP TO 0.75 INCH IN PLACES. FROM THE PUGET
SOUND AREA SOUTHWARD...THE RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY LET UP DURING THE
DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE LESS TONIGHT AND
LESS YET ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PUGET SOUND REGION LARGELY IN THE
RAIN SHADOW OF THE OLYMPICS MUCH OF THE TIME. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
AT TIMES OVER THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS HEAVY RAIN IN THE CASCADES...AS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES FROM ABOUT SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
6500 TO 7500 FT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2.5 TO 5 INCHES SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...HOWEVER THE 00Z TUE MODEL RUNS
DID BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

AFTER THE BRIEF LULL ON WEDNESDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER FRONT DIGGING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER RAINY
AND WINDY PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES COULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
MAINLY IN THE 5500 TO 7000 FT RANGE.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD DECREASE
ON FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT DIGS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA PRODUCES NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE WEEKEND
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. THE DAYS SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY.
WE WILL KEEP A LOW-END CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COOL DRY SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THAT FALLING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS AGREE WELL THAT THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES FROM AROUND SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE IN
THE 6500 TO 7500 FT RANGE.

THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED ARE HEAVY BUT NOT EXTREME...AND
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z TUE MODEL RUNS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SO WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A
THREAT OF GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING ON THE MOST FLOOD-PRONE OF THE
RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS...WHICH WILL BE UPDATED EARLY THIS MORNING.
THAT INCLUDES THE COWLITZ...PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING...SNOQUALMIE...
TOLT...SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...STILLAGUAMISH...AND NOOKSACK RIVERS.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WE MIGHT NOT BE
OUT OF THE WOODS YET. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES TO THE
OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES. THE SNOW LEVEL FOR THAT EVENT WILL BE
IN THE 5500 TO 7000 FT RANGE.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST TERMINALS. THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

MODERATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS AROUND 005 WITH VIS 3-5SM IN -RA BR. THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL ABOUT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH VIS
RISING TO P6SM AND CIGS RISING TO 008-012. S WIND 8-12 KT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 14Z...THEN WILL BECOME 20010-14KT BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT ABOUT 00Z. W WIND 35-40 KT AT FL030 THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND WESTWARD TO 140W. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY THEN WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO THE N OF THE FRONT TODAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY S TO SW WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ABOUT 4 AM
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST WATERS WILL SEE 20-30 KT SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS MAY SEE GALE FORCE WINDS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND STRONG N TO NELY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS.
LATER FRI INTO SAT. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
       STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
      AND PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL UNTIL 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 251156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAINY BREEZY WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AFTER A RELATIVE LULL WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE RAINY WINDY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. RAIN WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND COLDER DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MOIST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE ALONG 130W. THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
RENEWED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND TEMPERATURES ROSE SLIGHTLY INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A BAROCLINIC BAND CARRYING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT THE BAND WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WILL RECEIVE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THIS MORNING -- UP TO 0.75 INCH IN PLACES. FROM THE PUGET
SOUND AREA SOUTHWARD...THE RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY LET UP DURING THE
DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE LESS TONIGHT AND
LESS YET ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PUGET SOUND REGION LARGELY IN THE
RAIN SHADOW OF THE OLYMPICS MUCH OF THE TIME. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
AT TIMES OVER THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS HEAVY RAIN IN THE CASCADES...AS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES FROM ABOUT SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
6500 TO 7500 FT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2.5 TO 5 INCHES SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...HOWEVER THE 00Z TUE MODEL RUNS
DID BACK OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

AFTER THE BRIEF LULL ON WEDNESDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER FRONT DIGGING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER RAINY
AND WINDY PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES COULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
MAINLY IN THE 5500 TO 7000 FT RANGE.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD DECREASE
ON FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT DIGS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA PRODUCES NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE WEEKEND
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. THE DAYS SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY.
WE WILL KEEP A LOW-END CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COOL DRY SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THAT FALLING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS AGREE WELL THAT THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES FROM AROUND SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE IN
THE 6500 TO 7500 FT RANGE.

THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED ARE HEAVY BUT NOT EXTREME...AND
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z TUE MODEL RUNS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SO WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A
THREAT OF GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING ON THE MOST FLOOD-PRONE OF THE
RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS...WHICH WILL BE UPDATED EARLY THIS MORNING.
THAT INCLUDES THE COWLITZ...PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING...SNOQUALMIE...
TOLT...SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...STILLAGUAMISH...AND NOOKSACK RIVERS.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WE MIGHT NOT BE
OUT OF THE WOODS YET. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES TO THE
OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES. THE SNOW LEVEL FOR THAT EVENT WILL BE
IN THE 5500 TO 7000 FT RANGE.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST TERMINALS. THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

MODERATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS AROUND 005 WITH VIS 3-5SM IN -RA BR. THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL ABOUT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH VIS
RISING TO P6SM AND CIGS RISING TO 008-012. S WIND 8-12 KT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 14Z...THEN WILL BECOME 20010-14KT BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT ABOUT 00Z. W WIND 35-40 KT AT FL030 THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND WESTWARD TO 140W. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY THEN WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO THE N OF THE FRONT TODAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY S TO SW WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ABOUT 4 AM
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST WATERS WILL SEE 20-30 KT SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS MAY SEE GALE FORCE WINDS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND STRONG N TO NELY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS.
LATER FRI INTO SAT. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
       STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
      AND PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL UNTIL 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 251120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
319 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH WARM
FRONTAL OVERRUNNING MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS IT RIDES OVER A FLAT NORTHEAST
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE. THE MODELS SAY THE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR DECREASING RAIN MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE MODEST
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR MORE RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET THAT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS
FORECAST TO BRING COOLER AIR AND INCREASING EAST WINDS TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL DRAMATICALLY OVER
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT
AMONGST THE MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN
HAS SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTAL
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RIDE OVER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE MODELS SAY THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING. THE WARM FRONT HAS RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AROUND
MOUNT HOOD...WITH 40 DEGREES AT TIMBERLINE LODGE AND 46 DEGREES AT
GOVERNMENT CAMP. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN...LEAVING A MILD
AIR MASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY THOUGH
FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TO FULLY DRY OUT. ALSO...RECORD TEMPS FOR
TODAY ARE UP IN THE 60S...SO WE PROBABLY WILL SAFE FROM THAT BUT WE
MAY GET CLOSE AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

WITH THE DECREASING RAIN TONIGHT...WE MAY EVEN LOSE SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER IN THE SOUTH VALLEY...AND COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT PATCHIER FOG FARTHER
NORTH.

A PIECE OF THE MAIN LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ALL OF THIS MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BREAK OFF AND MOVE INLAND TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
B.C. AND PUSH A MODEST COLD FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
RAIN. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME BRISK WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLIES GUSTING TO 25
KTS...WHICH WILL START TO WEAKEN AFTER 15Z. THESE SITES LOOK TO
REMAIN IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THOUGH KONP COULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z.

INLAND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS APPEAR TO HAVE LIFTED MVFR CIGS OBSERVED
EARLIER TO VFR. RAIN IS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE OREGON- WASHINGTON
BORDER...SO THESE SITES ARE SEEING OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
STRATUS TO REMAIN THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH CIGS LIKELY TO STAY MOSTLY
VFR AS WIND DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO WEAKEN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. AS
WINDS START TO WEAKEN AFTER 00Z...ALLOWING STRATUS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
10-12KT WIND. THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO
MVFR/IFR AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. /MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 20 TO 25 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERN WATERS STAYING PRIMARILY 15 TO
20 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WINDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 9.5 FT
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 11 FT AS WINDS INCREASE IN OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 9 FT WITH
WEAKER WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS TO EXPIRE...WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS LATER TODAY...WINDS
WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 10 FT. A STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS AND BRING SEAS BACK UP INTO THE
TEENS. A GALE WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD LATER
TODAY. /MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
319 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH WARM
FRONTAL OVERRUNNING MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS IT RIDES OVER A FLAT NORTHEAST
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE. THE MODELS SAY THE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR DECREASING RAIN MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE MODEST
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR MORE RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET THAT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS
FORECAST TO BRING COOLER AIR AND INCREASING EAST WINDS TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL DRAMATICALLY OVER
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT
AMONGST THE MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN
HAS SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTAL
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RIDE OVER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE MODELS SAY THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING. THE WARM FRONT HAS RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AROUND
MOUNT HOOD...WITH 40 DEGREES AT TIMBERLINE LODGE AND 46 DEGREES AT
GOVERNMENT CAMP. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN...LEAVING A MILD
AIR MASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY THOUGH
FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TO FULLY DRY OUT. ALSO...RECORD TEMPS FOR
TODAY ARE UP IN THE 60S...SO WE PROBABLY WILL SAFE FROM THAT BUT WE
MAY GET CLOSE AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

WITH THE DECREASING RAIN TONIGHT...WE MAY EVEN LOSE SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER IN THE SOUTH VALLEY...AND COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT PATCHIER FOG FARTHER
NORTH.

A PIECE OF THE MAIN LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ALL OF THIS MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BREAK OFF AND MOVE INLAND TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
B.C. AND PUSH A MODEST COLD FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
RAIN. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME BRISK WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLIES GUSTING TO 25
KTS...WHICH WILL START TO WEAKEN AFTER 15Z. THESE SITES LOOK TO
REMAIN IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THOUGH KONP COULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z.

INLAND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS APPEAR TO HAVE LIFTED MVFR CIGS OBSERVED
EARLIER TO VFR. RAIN IS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE OREGON- WASHINGTON
BORDER...SO THESE SITES ARE SEEING OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
STRATUS TO REMAIN THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH CIGS LIKELY TO STAY MOSTLY
VFR AS WIND DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO WEAKEN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. AS
WINDS START TO WEAKEN AFTER 00Z...ALLOWING STRATUS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
10-12KT WIND. THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO
MVFR/IFR AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. /MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 20 TO 25 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERN WATERS STAYING PRIMARILY 15 TO
20 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WINDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 9.5 FT
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 11 FT AS WINDS INCREASE IN OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 9 FT WITH
WEAKER WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS TO EXPIRE...WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS LATER TODAY...WINDS
WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 10 FT. A STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS AND BRING SEAS BACK UP INTO THE
TEENS. A GALE WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD LATER
TODAY. /MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and rainy conditions are expected today with the southern and
central Idaho Panhandle receiving rain for much of the day. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight into Wednesday bringing a break
in the heavy mountain snow. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Rain is expected for most of the day and into
the night over the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. We will
be monitoring rain gauges over Shoshone, Latah, and Benewah
counties closely over the next 24 hours. Rain amounts today and
tonight will have a good chance of exceeding an inch over the
southern half of Shoshone county with a half to three quarters of
an inch in Benewah and Latah counties. Additional run-off from
mountain snow melt and poor absorption due to potentially frozen
ground may cause creeks and small streams to rise during the next
day or two.

A plume of deep level moisture is overtopping a flat upper level
ridge of high pressure this morning. The 2 AM water vapor
satellite imagery shows a well defined shortwave tracking through
southern Alberta leading to an increase in synoptic scale lift
over the Idaho Panhandle today. The Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie,
Clearwater Mountains and rising terrain of the Idaho Palouse will
be orographically favored as moisture rich northwesterly flow
remains focused over these areas through this evening. The strong
mid-level flow will also produce significant "slop-over"
precipitation over the East Slopes of the Cascades today in places
like Mazama, Stehekin and Plain. The snow pack in the high
elevations of the Cascades is probably deep enough to soak up a
good portion of the rain, but we will be closely monitoring the
Stehekin River and the smaller tributaries of the Wenatchee and
Similkameen over the next couple of days.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect over the mountains of
Northeast Washington and the mountains of the Northern and Central
Panhandle. Precipitation intensities have decreased around Priest
Lake, Metaline Falls and Sandpoint this morning as the mid-level
flow has become more northwesterly cutting off much of the
isentropic lift. More mid and high elevation snow is expected
tonight, but we may discontinue the advisory today since there
will be about 12 to 15 hours of little additional accumulation.

Wednesday: A warm front will surge northward on Wednesday pushing
the axis of heaviest precipitation into southern British Columbia.
Snow levels over north Idaho and northeast Washington will also
rise above 5000 feet on Wednesday leading to a transition from
snow to rain over the mountains around Sandpoint and Priest Lake.
Mild southerly winds will push temperatures into the upper 40s to
upper 50s region wide. The mild temperatures should improve road
conditions over the passes and travel conditions should be good
leading up to a busy holiday travel period Wednesday and Thursday.
/GKoch

Thursday through Saturday night...Flattened out ridging in the
region at this point allows the progressive flow to continue on.
The flow becomes more progressive and the ridge continues to
flatten and allow the baroclinic band/moisture source feeding up
into it to sag south as well and allow for cool northerly winds to
filter down behind it but slowly. So the moisture streaming
through the flat ridge keep high pops over parts of the East
Slopes of the North Cacades, Northern Mountains, and the Idaho
Panhandle with hint of a rain-shadow in the form of lower pops in
between for a good chunk of the Columbia Basin and a few other
lowland and valley locations close to it. Late Friday night into
Saturday the cold air and northerly winds behind the exiting
baroclinic band make good progress into the region allowing for a
substantial decrease in pops from north to south along with the
cooling. If all goes according to the models the baroclinic
band/frontal zone remains to the South of most of the forecast
area Saturday night allowing for further decrease in pops and
trending toward a much drier forecast to the north with continued
cold northerly/northeasterly winds maintaining influence. Forecast
temperatures depict this scenario with a gradual cooling trend.
Other issues of note would be the continuation of breezy/gusty
south to southwest winds Thursday through Friday with due to upper
level jet placement nearby. /Pelatti

Sunday through Tuesday: This period is expected to be wet and
cold. A Low pressure system off the coast of Oregon bring
widespread showers to the region. The temperatures are expected to
be near freezing and the precip is expected to be a wet snow as of
now. As the period gets closer and more model runs, this will
hopefully become more clear on the precip type. By late Monday, a
dry trough pushes into the region from the Northwest and decreases
the precip chances for Tuesday. The temperatures for this period
are expected to have highs near 30 and lows in the mid teens. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A steady amount of stratiform precip will continue
across extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. This precip will begin to shift more into southeast WA
and into the Central Panhandle through Tuesday morning before
swinging back up north along a warm front. Cigs and vis will lower
into MVFR/IFR category through tonight. There may be some
improvement across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor in the
afternoon before the second round of rainfall picks up in the
evening. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  37  48  38  49  38 /  60  70  30  30  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  41  36  46  36  46  38 /  70  90  50  40  40  30
Pullman        49  44  52  39  52  41 / 100 100  10  10  30  30
Lewiston       53  45  56  42  54  43 / 100  90  10  10  20  40
Colville       39  33  44  35  45  36 /  40  80  40  60  60  30
Sandpoint      39  33  42  33  42  35 /  50  90  80  70  70  50
Kellogg        39  35  42  36  42  36 / 100 100  80  50  60  60
Moses Lake     47  40  53  39  53  39 /  30  20   0  10  10  20
Wenatchee      46  39  50  38  48  39 /  30  20  10  10  30  30
Omak           39  34  44  34  43  34 /  80  60  20  30  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and rainy conditions are expected today with the southern and
central Idaho Panhandle receiving rain for much of the day. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight into Wednesday bringing a break
in the heavy mountain snow. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Rain is expected for most of the day and into
the night over the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. We will
be monitoring rain gauges over Shoshone, Latah, and Benewah
counties closely over the next 24 hours. Rain amounts today and
tonight will have a good chance of exceeding an inch over the
southern half of Shoshone county with a half to three quarters of
an inch in Benewah and Latah counties. Additional run-off from
mountain snow melt and poor absorption due to potentially frozen
ground may cause creeks and small streams to rise during the next
day or two.

A plume of deep level moisture is overtopping a flat upper level
ridge of high pressure this morning. The 2 AM water vapor
satellite imagery shows a well defined shortwave tracking through
southern Alberta leading to an increase in synoptic scale lift
over the Idaho Panhandle today. The Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie,
Clearwater Mountains and rising terrain of the Idaho Palouse will
be orographically favored as moisture rich northwesterly flow
remains focused over these areas through this evening. The strong
mid-level flow will also produce significant "slop-over"
precipitation over the East Slopes of the Cascades today in places
like Mazama, Stehekin and Plain. The snow pack in the high
elevations of the Cascades is probably deep enough to soak up a
good portion of the rain, but we will be closely monitoring the
Stehekin River and the smaller tributaries of the Wenatchee and
Similkameen over the next couple of days.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect over the mountains of
Northeast Washington and the mountains of the Northern and Central
Panhandle. Precipitation intensities have decreased around Priest
Lake, Metaline Falls and Sandpoint this morning as the mid-level
flow has become more northwesterly cutting off much of the
isentropic lift. More mid and high elevation snow is expected
tonight, but we may discontinue the advisory today since there
will be about 12 to 15 hours of little additional accumulation.

Wednesday: A warm front will surge northward on Wednesday pushing
the axis of heaviest precipitation into southern British Columbia.
Snow levels over north Idaho and northeast Washington will also
rise above 5000 feet on Wednesday leading to a transition from
snow to rain over the mountains around Sandpoint and Priest Lake.
Mild southerly winds will push temperatures into the upper 40s to
upper 50s region wide. The mild temperatures should improve road
conditions over the passes and travel conditions should be good
leading up to a busy holiday travel period Wednesday and Thursday.
/GKoch

Thursday through Saturday night...Flattened out ridging in the
region at this point allows the progressive flow to continue on.
The flow becomes more progressive and the ridge continues to
flatten and allow the baroclinic band/moisture source feeding up
into it to sag south as well and allow for cool northerly winds to
filter down behind it but slowly. So the moisture streaming
through the flat ridge keep high pops over parts of the East
Slopes of the North Cacades, Northern Mountains, and the Idaho
Panhandle with hint of a rain-shadow in the form of lower pops in
between for a good chunk of the Columbia Basin and a few other
lowland and valley locations close to it. Late Friday night into
Saturday the cold air and northerly winds behind the exiting
baroclinic band make good progress into the region allowing for a
substantial decrease in pops from north to south along with the
cooling. If all goes according to the models the baroclinic
band/frontal zone remains to the South of most of the forecast
area Saturday night allowing for further decrease in pops and
trending toward a much drier forecast to the north with continued
cold northerly/northeasterly winds maintaining influence. Forecast
temperatures depict this scenario with a gradual cooling trend.
Other issues of note would be the continuation of breezy/gusty
south to southwest winds Thursday through Friday with due to upper
level jet placement nearby. /Pelatti

Sunday through Tuesday: This period is expected to be wet and
cold. A Low pressure system off the coast of Oregon bring
widespread showers to the region. The temperatures are expected to
be near freezing and the precip is expected to be a wet snow as of
now. As the period gets closer and more model runs, this will
hopefully become more clear on the precip type. By late Monday, a
dry trough pushes into the region from the Northwest and decreases
the precip chances for Tuesday. The temperatures for this period
are expected to have highs near 30 and lows in the mid teens. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A steady amount of stratiform precip will continue
across extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. This precip will begin to shift more into southeast WA
and into the Central Panhandle through Tuesday morning before
swinging back up north along a warm front. Cigs and vis will lower
into MVFR/IFR category through tonight. There may be some
improvement across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor in the
afternoon before the second round of rainfall picks up in the
evening. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  37  48  38  49  38 /  60  70  30  30  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  41  36  46  36  46  38 /  70  90  50  40  40  30
Pullman        49  44  52  39  52  41 / 100 100  10  10  30  30
Lewiston       53  45  56  42  54  43 / 100  90  10  10  20  40
Colville       39  33  44  35  45  36 /  40  80  40  60  60  30
Sandpoint      39  33  42  33  42  35 /  50  90  80  70  70  50
Kellogg        39  35  42  36  42  36 / 100 100  80  50  60  60
Moses Lake     47  40  53  39  53  39 /  30  20   0  10  10  20
Wenatchee      46  39  50  38  48  39 /  30  20  10  10  30  30
Omak           39  34  44  34  43  34 /  80  60  20  30  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 251053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and rainy conditions are expected today with the southern and
central Idaho Panhandle receiving rain for much of the day. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight into Wednesday bringing a break
in the heavy mountain snow. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Rain is expected for most of the day and into
the night over the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. We will
be monitoring rain gauges over Shoshone, Latah, and Benewah
counties closely over the next 24 hours. Rain amounts today and
tonight will have a good chance of exceeding an inch over the
southern half of Shoshone county with a half to three quarters of
an inch in Benewah and Latah counties. Additional run-off from
mountain snow melt and poor absorption due to potentially frozen
ground may cause creeks and small streams to rise during the next
day or two.

A plume of deep level moisture is overtopping a flat upper level
ridge of high pressure this morning. The 2 AM water vapor
satellite imagery shows a well defined shortwave tracking through
southern Alberta leading to an increase in synoptic scale lift
over the Idaho Panhandle today. The Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie,
Clearwater Mountains and rising terrain of the Idaho Palouse will
be orographically favored as moisture rich northwesterly flow
remains focused over these areas through this evening. The strong
mid-level flow will also produce significant "slop-over"
precipitation over the East Slopes of the Cascades today in places
like Mazama, Stehekin and Plain. The snow pack in the high
elevations of the Cascades is probably deep enough to soak up a
good portion of the rain, but we will be closely monitoring the
Stehekin River and the smaller tributaries of the Wenatchee and
Similkameen over the next couple of days.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect over the mountains of
Northeast Washington and the mountains of the Northern and Central
Panhandle. Precipitation intensities have decreased around Priest
Lake, Metaline Falls and Sandpoint this morning as the mid-level
flow has become more northwesterly cutting off much of the
isentropic lift. More mid and high elevation snow is expected
tonight, but we may discontinue the advisory today since there
will be about 12 to 15 hours of little additional accumulation.

Wednesday: A warm front will surge northward on Wednesday pushing
the axis of heaviest precipitation into southern British Columbia.
Snow levels over north Idaho and northeast Washington will also
rise above 5000 feet on Wednesday leading to a transition from
snow to rain over the mountains around Sandpoint and Priest Lake.
Mild southerly winds will push temperatures into the upper 40s to
upper 50s region wide. The mild temperatures should improve road
conditions over the passes and travel conditions should be good
leading up to a busy holiday travel period Wednesday and Thursday.
/GKoch

Thursday through Saturday night...Flattened out ridging in the
region at this point allows the progressive flow to continue on.
The flow becomes more progressive and the ridge continues to
flatten and allow the baroclinic band/moisture source feeding up
into it to sag south as well and allow for cool northerly winds to
filter down behind it but slowly. So the moisture streaming
through the flat ridge keep high pops over parts of the East
Slopes of the North Cacades, Northern Mountains, and the Idaho
Panhandle with hint of a rain-shadow in the form of lower pops in
between for a good chunk of the Columbia Basin and a few other
lowland and valley locations close to it. Late Friday night into
Saturday the cold air and northerly winds behind the exiting
baroclinic band make good progress into the region allowing for a
substantial decrease in pops from north to south along with the
cooling. If all goes according to the models the baroclinic
band/frontal zone remains to the South of most of the forecast
area Saturday night allowing for further decrease in pops and
trending toward a much drier forecast to the north with continued
cold northerly/northeasterly winds maintaining influence. Forecast
temperatures depict this scenario with a gradual cooling trend.
Other issues of note would be the continuation of breezy/gusty
south to southwest winds Thursday through Friday with due to upper
level jet placement nearby. /Pelatti

Sunday through Tuesday: This period is expected to be wet and
cold. A Low pressure system off the coast of Oregon bring
widespread showers to the region. The temperatures are expected to
be near freezing and the precip is expected to be a wet snow as of
now. As the period gets closer and more model runs, this will
hopefully become more clear on the precip type. By late Monday, a
dry trough pushes into the region from the Northwest and decreases
the precip chances for Tuesday. The temperatures for this period
are expected to have highs near 30 and lows in the mid teens. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A steady amount of stratiform precip will continue
across extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. This precip will begin to shift more into southeast WA
and into the Central Panhandle through Tuesday morning before
swinging back up north along a warm front. Cigs and vis will lower
into MVFR/IFR category through tonight. There may be some
improvement across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor in the
afternoon before the second round of rainfall picks up in the
evening. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  37  48  38  49  38 /  60  70  30  30  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  41  36  46  36  46  38 /  70  90  50  40  40  30
Pullman        49  44  52  39  52  41 / 100 100  10  10  30  30
Lewiston       53  45  56  42  54  43 / 100  90  10  10  20  40
Colville       39  33  44  35  45  36 /  40  80  40  60  60  30
Sandpoint      39  33  42  33  42  35 /  50  90  80  70  70  50
Kellogg        39  35  42  36  42  36 / 100 100  80  50  60  60
Moses Lake     47  40  53  39  53  39 /  30  20   0  10  10  20
Wenatchee      46  39  50  38  48  39 /  30  20  10  10  30  30
Omak           39  34  44  34  43  34 /  80  60  20  30  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 251053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and rainy conditions are expected today with the southern and
central Idaho Panhandle receiving rain for much of the day. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight into Wednesday bringing a break
in the heavy mountain snow. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Rain is expected for most of the day and into
the night over the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. We will
be monitoring rain gauges over Shoshone, Latah, and Benewah
counties closely over the next 24 hours. Rain amounts today and
tonight will have a good chance of exceeding an inch over the
southern half of Shoshone county with a half to three quarters of
an inch in Benewah and Latah counties. Additional run-off from
mountain snow melt and poor absorption due to potentially frozen
ground may cause creeks and small streams to rise during the next
day or two.

A plume of deep level moisture is overtopping a flat upper level
ridge of high pressure this morning. The 2 AM water vapor
satellite imagery shows a well defined shortwave tracking through
southern Alberta leading to an increase in synoptic scale lift
over the Idaho Panhandle today. The Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie,
Clearwater Mountains and rising terrain of the Idaho Palouse will
be orographically favored as moisture rich northwesterly flow
remains focused over these areas through this evening. The strong
mid-level flow will also produce significant "slop-over"
precipitation over the East Slopes of the Cascades today in places
like Mazama, Stehekin and Plain. The snow pack in the high
elevations of the Cascades is probably deep enough to soak up a
good portion of the rain, but we will be closely monitoring the
Stehekin River and the smaller tributaries of the Wenatchee and
Similkameen over the next couple of days.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect over the mountains of
Northeast Washington and the mountains of the Northern and Central
Panhandle. Precipitation intensities have decreased around Priest
Lake, Metaline Falls and Sandpoint this morning as the mid-level
flow has become more northwesterly cutting off much of the
isentropic lift. More mid and high elevation snow is expected
tonight, but we may discontinue the advisory today since there
will be about 12 to 15 hours of little additional accumulation.

Wednesday: A warm front will surge northward on Wednesday pushing
the axis of heaviest precipitation into southern British Columbia.
Snow levels over north Idaho and northeast Washington will also
rise above 5000 feet on Wednesday leading to a transition from
snow to rain over the mountains around Sandpoint and Priest Lake.
Mild southerly winds will push temperatures into the upper 40s to
upper 50s region wide. The mild temperatures should improve road
conditions over the passes and travel conditions should be good
leading up to a busy holiday travel period Wednesday and Thursday.
/GKoch

Thursday through Saturday night...Flattened out ridging in the
region at this point allows the progressive flow to continue on.
The flow becomes more progressive and the ridge continues to
flatten and allow the baroclinic band/moisture source feeding up
into it to sag south as well and allow for cool northerly winds to
filter down behind it but slowly. So the moisture streaming
through the flat ridge keep high pops over parts of the East
Slopes of the North Cacades, Northern Mountains, and the Idaho
Panhandle with hint of a rain-shadow in the form of lower pops in
between for a good chunk of the Columbia Basin and a few other
lowland and valley locations close to it. Late Friday night into
Saturday the cold air and northerly winds behind the exiting
baroclinic band make good progress into the region allowing for a
substantial decrease in pops from north to south along with the
cooling. If all goes according to the models the baroclinic
band/frontal zone remains to the South of most of the forecast
area Saturday night allowing for further decrease in pops and
trending toward a much drier forecast to the north with continued
cold northerly/northeasterly winds maintaining influence. Forecast
temperatures depict this scenario with a gradual cooling trend.
Other issues of note would be the continuation of breezy/gusty
south to southwest winds Thursday through Friday with due to upper
level jet placement nearby. /Pelatti

Sunday through Tuesday: This period is expected to be wet and
cold. A Low pressure system off the coast of Oregon bring
widespread showers to the region. The temperatures are expected to
be near freezing and the precip is expected to be a wet snow as of
now. As the period gets closer and more model runs, this will
hopefully become more clear on the precip type. By late Monday, a
dry trough pushes into the region from the Northwest and decreases
the precip chances for Tuesday. The temperatures for this period
are expected to have highs near 30 and lows in the mid teens. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A steady amount of stratiform precip will continue
across extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. This precip will begin to shift more into southeast WA
and into the Central Panhandle through Tuesday morning before
swinging back up north along a warm front. Cigs and vis will lower
into MVFR/IFR category through tonight. There may be some
improvement across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor in the
afternoon before the second round of rainfall picks up in the
evening. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  37  48  38  49  38 /  60  70  30  30  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  41  36  46  36  46  38 /  70  90  50  40  40  30
Pullman        49  44  52  39  52  41 / 100 100  10  10  30  30
Lewiston       53  45  56  42  54  43 / 100  90  10  10  20  40
Colville       39  33  44  35  45  36 /  40  80  40  60  60  30
Sandpoint      39  33  42  33  42  35 /  50  90  80  70  70  50
Kellogg        39  35  42  36  42  36 / 100 100  80  50  60  60
Moses Lake     47  40  53  39  53  39 /  30  20   0  10  10  20
Wenatchee      46  39  50  38  48  39 /  30  20  10  10  30  30
Omak           39  34  44  34  43  34 /  80  60  20  30  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250606
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1006 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet and mild storm system will arrive tonight and persist
through Tuesday night. Rain and mountain snow is expected to
develop this evening. Minor snow accumulations are expected in the
valleys near the Canadian border this evening, meanwhile
significant mountain can be expected across northeast Washington
and much of north Idaho. A breezy and wet but warm Thanksgiving
Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the holiday
weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow
levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave disturbance is pushing over the eastern Pacific ridge
of higher pressure. Current satellite imagery shows this shortwave
crossing into central and southern Alberta late this evening. Good
moist isentropic ascent out ahead of this feature is producing
widespread precip across much of the ID Panhandle and the
Northeast mountains this evening. There has been enough drier air
at low levels to prevent much of this precip from expanding out
into eastern WA. Latest radar scans indicates that not too far
weest from Spokane and Pullman into the basin that much of this
area is dry. The flow pattern begin to veer overnight into Tuesday
morning. This will shift the focus for precip into southeast WA
and into the ID Panhandle.

The main changes made to the forecast for tonight was to lower sow
levels across the Northeast Mtns and into the ID Panhandle. Most
locations above 2500 feet closer to the Canadian border are
seeing snowfall tonight; this includes: Lauier, Northport,
Metaline Falls, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake area, and Sandpoint. We
have received one report of around an inch of snow near Metaline
Falls through this evening. This compares well with what is
mentioned in the Winter Weather Advisory. Widespread valley
snowfall of more than 2 inches is not anticipated; although,
locations near the Canadian border will see the best chances.
Roads will likely see a layer of wet snow and will result in some
difficult travel across these areas. The heaviest accumulations
are still expected to occur above 4000 feet in elevation. Mountain
locations are expected to see between 3 to 6 inches of snow
through tonight with the first round of precip. More snow is
expected tomorrow tonight with a second round. Snow levels by this
time will be on the increase with less in the way of valley
accumulations expected.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A steady amount of stratiform precip will continue
across extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. This precip will begin to shift more into southeast WA
and into the Central Panhandle through Tuesday morning before
swinging back up north along a warm front. Cigs and vis will lower
into MVFR/IFR category through tonight. There may be some
improvement across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor in the
afternoon before the second round of rainfall picks up in the
evening. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  41  37  48  38  49 /  90  60  80  50  30  40
Coeur d`Alene  36  41  36  46  36  46 / 100  80  90  70  50  40
Pullman        39  49  44  52  39  52 /  90  80  80  30  10  30
Lewiston       41  53  45  56  42  54 /  80  70  50  20  10  20
Colville       32  39  33  44  35  45 /  80  50  90  60  60  60
Sandpoint      32  39  33  42  33  42 / 100  60 100  80  70  70
Kellogg        32  39  35  42  36  42 / 100  90 100  70  60  60
Moses Lake     37  47  40  53  39  53 /  10  20  20  10  10  10
Wenatchee      37  46  39  50  38  48 /  10  20  40  30  20  30
Omak           32  39  34  44  34  43 /  10  60  60  60  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250606
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1006 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet and mild storm system will arrive tonight and persist
through Tuesday night. Rain and mountain snow is expected to
develop this evening. Minor snow accumulations are expected in the
valleys near the Canadian border this evening, meanwhile
significant mountain can be expected across northeast Washington
and much of north Idaho. A breezy and wet but warm Thanksgiving
Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the holiday
weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow
levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave disturbance is pushing over the eastern Pacific ridge
of higher pressure. Current satellite imagery shows this shortwave
crossing into central and southern Alberta late this evening. Good
moist isentropic ascent out ahead of this feature is producing
widespread precip across much of the ID Panhandle and the
Northeast mountains this evening. There has been enough drier air
at low levels to prevent much of this precip from expanding out
into eastern WA. Latest radar scans indicates that not too far
weest from Spokane and Pullman into the basin that much of this
area is dry. The flow pattern begin to veer overnight into Tuesday
morning. This will shift the focus for precip into southeast WA
and into the ID Panhandle.

The main changes made to the forecast for tonight was to lower sow
levels across the Northeast Mtns and into the ID Panhandle. Most
locations above 2500 feet closer to the Canadian border are
seeing snowfall tonight; this includes: Lauier, Northport,
Metaline Falls, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake area, and Sandpoint. We
have received one report of around an inch of snow near Metaline
Falls through this evening. This compares well with what is
mentioned in the Winter Weather Advisory. Widespread valley
snowfall of more than 2 inches is not anticipated; although,
locations near the Canadian border will see the best chances.
Roads will likely see a layer of wet snow and will result in some
difficult travel across these areas. The heaviest accumulations
are still expected to occur above 4000 feet in elevation. Mountain
locations are expected to see between 3 to 6 inches of snow
through tonight with the first round of precip. More snow is
expected tomorrow tonight with a second round. Snow levels by this
time will be on the increase with less in the way of valley
accumulations expected.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A steady amount of stratiform precip will continue
across extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. This precip will begin to shift more into southeast WA
and into the Central Panhandle through Tuesday morning before
swinging back up north along a warm front. Cigs and vis will lower
into MVFR/IFR category through tonight. There may be some
improvement across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor in the
afternoon before the second round of rainfall picks up in the
evening. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  41  37  48  38  49 /  90  60  80  50  30  40
Coeur d`Alene  36  41  36  46  36  46 / 100  80  90  70  50  40
Pullman        39  49  44  52  39  52 /  90  80  80  30  10  30
Lewiston       41  53  45  56  42  54 /  80  70  50  20  10  20
Colville       32  39  33  44  35  45 /  80  50  90  60  60  60
Sandpoint      32  39  33  42  33  42 / 100  60 100  80  70  70
Kellogg        32  39  35  42  36  42 / 100  90 100  70  60  60
Moses Lake     37  47  40  53  39  53 /  10  20  20  10  10  10
Wenatchee      37  46  39  50  38  48 /  10  20  40  30  20  30
Omak           32  39  34  44  34  43 /  10  60  60  60  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 250505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
905 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OCCURS LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND COAST
RANGE...WITH THE VALLEY REMAINING MOSTLY DRY BUT OVERCAST. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS TONIGHT IN THE VALLEY. MODELS ARE ALSO
TRENDING DRIER FOR THE VALLEY TOMORROW...SO LOWERED POPS A BIT THERE
AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OUT OF THE SOUTH. IF WINDS REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT AS THEY ARE NOW...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL
FROM CURRENT. HOWEVER IF WINDS MANAGE TO DROP OFF SOME...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S. REALLY THE QUESTION LIES MORE IN
THE DIURNAL CURVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THAN IN ANY IMPACT FROM
TEMPERATURES. FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH IN THE VALLEY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY...SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS STARTING TO SHOW UP NEAR THE S WA AND
N OREGON COAST ON KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 21Z. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS
TO BE OVER SW WA. A WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET
DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON TONIGHT. THE NOAA
OPERATIONAL BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES 1 TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL
BE CENTERED ON THE SW WA FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE
06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD
WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH
QPF...INDICATING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS
IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED THE QPF IN SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON FOR THE 12Z-18Z
TIME FRAME. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO
THE S WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. NO RIVER CONCERNS AS OF YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SHOULD THE GFS NUMBERS TURN OUT MORE ACCURATE.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS. MODELS ARE
COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. OVER-RUNNING PRECIP MAY REACH THE COAST
AS EARLY AS 06Z THU...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND THEREAFTER. HIGHEST
QPF LOOKS TO STAY IN WASHINGTON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR JET STREAM
PHASING SOMEWHERE NEAR PUGET SOUND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING
SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS
HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE
COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS.
THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE
LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO
MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N 130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE
OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF
SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT
OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO HIGH. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS INLAND ARE HOVERING AROUND THE 3000 FT AGL MARK
WITH A CLEAR IFR DECK FOR MOST OF THE COAST AND A LIFR DECK AT
KONP. DONT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH WIND TO STICK
AROUND AND KEEP A LARGER THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS VERSUS FOG
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW BUT MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE PICTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL ALONG THE COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 030 FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND REALLY DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE A
MORE PRONOUNCED MVFR DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EASE.
SEEMS LIKE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PORTIONS OF
25/TUE AND LIKELY PAST 00Z/26. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE ALTHOUGH DID PUSH
THE TIMING AHEAD FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE OF A BREAK WILL OCCUR. GUSTS
WILL START COMING UP AROUND 09Z FOR THE WESTERN EDGE OUTER
WATERS. REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. JBONK

THE WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS OR GUSTS AROUND 25
KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES
WED OR WED NIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE WATCH TO LIMIT
THE CONFUSION OF MULTIPLE HEADLINES.

COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE
HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS.  THE
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE
NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO 9
     PM PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 250505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
905 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OCCURS LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND COAST
RANGE...WITH THE VALLEY REMAINING MOSTLY DRY BUT OVERCAST. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS TONIGHT IN THE VALLEY. MODELS ARE ALSO
TRENDING DRIER FOR THE VALLEY TOMORROW...SO LOWERED POPS A BIT THERE
AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OUT OF THE SOUTH. IF WINDS REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT AS THEY ARE NOW...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL
FROM CURRENT. HOWEVER IF WINDS MANAGE TO DROP OFF SOME...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S. REALLY THE QUESTION LIES MORE IN
THE DIURNAL CURVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THAN IN ANY IMPACT FROM
TEMPERATURES. FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH IN THE VALLEY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY...SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS STARTING TO SHOW UP NEAR THE S WA AND
N OREGON COAST ON KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 21Z. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS
TO BE OVER SW WA. A WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET
DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON TONIGHT. THE NOAA
OPERATIONAL BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES 1 TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL
BE CENTERED ON THE SW WA FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE
06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD
WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH
QPF...INDICATING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS
IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED THE QPF IN SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON FOR THE 12Z-18Z
TIME FRAME. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO
THE S WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. NO RIVER CONCERNS AS OF YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SHOULD THE GFS NUMBERS TURN OUT MORE ACCURATE.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS. MODELS ARE
COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. OVER-RUNNING PRECIP MAY REACH THE COAST
AS EARLY AS 06Z THU...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND THEREAFTER. HIGHEST
QPF LOOKS TO STAY IN WASHINGTON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR JET STREAM
PHASING SOMEWHERE NEAR PUGET SOUND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING
SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS
HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE
COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS.
THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE
LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO
MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N 130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE
OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF
SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT
OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO HIGH. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS INLAND ARE HOVERING AROUND THE 3000 FT AGL MARK
WITH A CLEAR IFR DECK FOR MOST OF THE COAST AND A LIFR DECK AT
KONP. DONT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH WIND TO STICK
AROUND AND KEEP A LARGER THREAT FOR LOW STRATUS VERSUS FOG
TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW BUT MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE PICTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL ALONG THE COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 030 FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND REALLY DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE A
MORE PRONOUNCED MVFR DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EASE.
SEEMS LIKE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PORTIONS OF
25/TUE AND LIKELY PAST 00Z/26. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE ALTHOUGH DID PUSH
THE TIMING AHEAD FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE OF A BREAK WILL OCCUR. GUSTS
WILL START COMING UP AROUND 09Z FOR THE WESTERN EDGE OUTER
WATERS. REST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. JBONK

THE WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS OR GUSTS AROUND 25
KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES
WED OR WED NIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE WATCH TO LIMIT
THE CONFUSION OF MULTIPLE HEADLINES.

COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE
HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS.  THE
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE
NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO 9
     PM PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 250453
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014...CORRECTED HEADLINE FORMAT

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN...MILD TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING A COOLER DRIER PERIOD THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS WITH THIS FIRST FEATURE HAVE SO FAR NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. RADAR SHOWS A RELATIVE
LULL IN RAINFALL WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
REACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
RE-DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT
FEATURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY 2-3 MORE INCHES
IN THE CASCADES AND UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS. THE LOWLANDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY WHICH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH IN A FEW HOURS TIME COULD CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES IN THE LOWLANDS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL...THE NEWER 00Z MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE
WET PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE WARM FRONTAL WAVE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY WILL LIFT
NWD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REPRIEVE IN STEADY RAIN
ACROSS S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WRN WA. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE BAND MAY
STILL PRODUCE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE FAR N CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OLYMPICS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY INCREASE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING ON RIVER BASINS AFFECTED BY STRONG WLY FLOW.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWING INTO WRN WA ON
THURSDAY. STRONGER S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADD TO RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD RISK THERE.
WHILE THIS FRONT COULD TEMPORARILY WORSEN THE FLOOD
THREAT...PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EASE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. MERCER


.LONG TERM...NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON MOVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY THE LEFTOVER
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE MAIN LOW OFFSHORE. COOLER DRIER N FLOW ALOFT
AND AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S OVER B.C.  COULD GET SOME BREEZY NE OUTFLOW
OVER THE N INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY AS
WELL BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD YET...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY COULD BE DRIED OUT AND SUNSHINE INCREASED. THE
COOL DRY FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE...BUT MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

IF MODELS DO BRING PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE OREGON COAST SPREADING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WRN WA
INCLUDING THE CASCADES WILL SEE A LULL IN RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PUYALLUP AND
COWLITZ RIVERS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT
MULTIPLE RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SNOQUALMIE...STILLAGUAMISH...
SKAGIT...AND NOOKSACK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER B.C. AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAS 3 TO 4.5
INCHES SPREAD GENERALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY. BULLSEYES OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE PRESENT OVER MT
BAKER AND MT RAINIER RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THE CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW THE OLYMPICS GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS W FLOW EVENT MIGHT DRIVE THE
BOGACHIEL RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. THE EARLIER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
COVERS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OLYMPICS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES N ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE RAIN.
ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A
SECOND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. KAM/MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY GIVING LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST TERMINALS. THE
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS AROUND 015 TONIGHT WILL FALL TO 007-010 12Z THROUGH 22Z
TUE. SE WIND 7-10 KT WITH WIND SW 35 KT AT 020. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND WESTWARD TO 140W. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND FRASER OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER FRI INTO SAT AS COLD HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALBRECHT

$$

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 250453
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014...CORRECTED HEADLINE FORMAT

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN...MILD TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING A COOLER DRIER PERIOD THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS WITH THIS FIRST FEATURE HAVE SO FAR NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. RADAR SHOWS A RELATIVE
LULL IN RAINFALL WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
REACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
RE-DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT
FEATURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY 2-3 MORE INCHES
IN THE CASCADES AND UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS. THE LOWLANDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY WHICH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH IN A FEW HOURS TIME COULD CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES IN THE LOWLANDS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL...THE NEWER 00Z MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE
WET PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE WARM FRONTAL WAVE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY WILL LIFT
NWD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REPRIEVE IN STEADY RAIN
ACROSS S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WRN WA. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE BAND MAY
STILL PRODUCE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE FAR N CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OLYMPICS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY INCREASE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING ON RIVER BASINS AFFECTED BY STRONG WLY FLOW.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWING INTO WRN WA ON
THURSDAY. STRONGER S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADD TO RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD RISK THERE.
WHILE THIS FRONT COULD TEMPORARILY WORSEN THE FLOOD
THREAT...PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EASE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. MERCER


.LONG TERM...NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON MOVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY THE LEFTOVER
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE MAIN LOW OFFSHORE. COOLER DRIER N FLOW ALOFT
AND AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S OVER B.C.  COULD GET SOME BREEZY NE OUTFLOW
OVER THE N INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY AS
WELL BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD YET...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY COULD BE DRIED OUT AND SUNSHINE INCREASED. THE
COOL DRY FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE...BUT MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

IF MODELS DO BRING PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE OREGON COAST SPREADING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WRN WA
INCLUDING THE CASCADES WILL SEE A LULL IN RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PUYALLUP AND
COWLITZ RIVERS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT
MULTIPLE RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SNOQUALMIE...STILLAGUAMISH...
SKAGIT...AND NOOKSACK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER B.C. AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAS 3 TO 4.5
INCHES SPREAD GENERALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY. BULLSEYES OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE PRESENT OVER MT
BAKER AND MT RAINIER RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THE CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW THE OLYMPICS GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS W FLOW EVENT MIGHT DRIVE THE
BOGACHIEL RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. THE EARLIER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
COVERS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OLYMPICS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES N ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE RAIN.
ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A
SECOND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. KAM/MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY GIVING LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST TERMINALS. THE
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS AROUND 015 TONIGHT WILL FALL TO 007-010 12Z THROUGH 22Z
TUE. SE WIND 7-10 KT WITH WIND SW 35 KT AT 020. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND WESTWARD TO 140W. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND FRASER OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER FRI INTO SAT AS COLD HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALBRECHT

$$

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 250450
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN...MILD TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING A COOLER DRIER PERIOD THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS WITH THIS FIRST FEATURE HAVE SO FAR NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. RADAR SHOWS A RELATIVE
LULL IN RAINFALL WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
REACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
RE-DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT
FEATURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY 2-3 MORE INCHES
IN THE CASCADES AND UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS. THE LOWLANDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY WHICH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH IN A FEW HOURS TIME COULD CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES IN THE LOWLANDS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL...THE NEWER 00Z MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE
WET PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE WARM FRONTAL WAVE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY WILL LIFT
NWD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REPRIEVE IN STEADY RAIN
ACROSS S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WRN WA. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE BAND MAY
STILL PRODUCE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE FAR N CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OLYMPICS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY INCREASE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING ON RIVER BASINS AFFECTED BY STRONG WLY FLOW.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWING INTO WRN WA ON
THURSDAY. STRONGER S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADD TO RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD RISK THERE.
WHILE THIS FRONT COULD TEMPORARILY WORSEN THE FLOOD
THREAT...PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EASE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. MERCER


.LONG TERM...NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON MOVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY THE LEFTOVER
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE MAIN LOW OFFSHORE. COOLER DRIER N FLOW ALOFT
AND AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S OVER B.C.  COULD GET SOME BREEZY NE OUTFLOW
OVER THE N INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY AS
WELL BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD YET...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY COULD BE DRIED OUT AND SUNSHINE INCREASED. THE
COOL DRY FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE...BUT MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

IF MODELS DO BRING PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE OREGON COAST SPREADING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WRN WA
INCLUDING THE CASCADES WILL SEE A LULL IN RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PUYALLUP AND
COWLITZ RIVERS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT
MULTIPLE RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SNOQUALMIE...STILLAGUAMISH...
SKAGIT...AND NOOKSACK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER B.C. AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAS 3 TO 4.5
INCHES SPREAD GENERALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY. BULLSEYES OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE PRESENT OVER MT
BAKER AND MT RAINIER RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THE CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW THE OLYMPICS GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS W FLOW EVENT MIGHT DRIVE THE
BOGACHIEL RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. THE EARLIER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
COVERS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OLYMPICS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES N ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE RAIN.
ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A
SECOND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. KAM/MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY GIVING LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST TERMINALS. THE
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS AROUND 015 TONIGHT WILL FALL TO 007-010 12Z THROUGH 22Z
TUE. SE WIND 7-10 KT WITH WIND SW 35 KT AT 020. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND WESTWARD TO 140W. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND FRASER OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER FRI INTO SAT AS COLD HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALBRECHT

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 250450
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN...MILD TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING A COOLER DRIER PERIOD THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS WITH THIS FIRST FEATURE HAVE SO FAR NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. RADAR SHOWS A RELATIVE
LULL IN RAINFALL WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
REACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
RE-DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT
FEATURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY 2-3 MORE INCHES
IN THE CASCADES AND UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS. THE LOWLANDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY WHICH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH IN A FEW HOURS TIME COULD CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES IN THE LOWLANDS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL...THE NEWER 00Z MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE
WET PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE WARM FRONTAL WAVE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY WILL LIFT
NWD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REPRIEVE IN STEADY RAIN
ACROSS S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WRN WA. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE BAND MAY
STILL PRODUCE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE FAR N CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OLYMPICS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY INCREASE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING ON RIVER BASINS AFFECTED BY STRONG WLY FLOW.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWING INTO WRN WA ON
THURSDAY. STRONGER S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADD TO RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD RISK THERE.
WHILE THIS FRONT COULD TEMPORARILY WORSEN THE FLOOD
THREAT...PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EASE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. MERCER


.LONG TERM...NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON MOVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY THE LEFTOVER
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE MAIN LOW OFFSHORE. COOLER DRIER N FLOW ALOFT
AND AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S OVER B.C.  COULD GET SOME BREEZY NE OUTFLOW
OVER THE N INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY AS
WELL BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD YET...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY COULD BE DRIED OUT AND SUNSHINE INCREASED. THE
COOL DRY FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE...BUT MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

IF MODELS DO BRING PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE OREGON COAST SPREADING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WRN WA
INCLUDING THE CASCADES WILL SEE A LULL IN RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PUYALLUP AND
COWLITZ RIVERS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT
MULTIPLE RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SNOQUALMIE...STILLAGUAMISH...
SKAGIT...AND NOOKSACK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER B.C. AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAS 3 TO 4.5
INCHES SPREAD GENERALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY. BULLSEYES OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE PRESENT OVER MT
BAKER AND MT RAINIER RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THE CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW THE OLYMPICS GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS W FLOW EVENT MIGHT DRIVE THE
BOGACHIEL RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. THE EARLIER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
COVERS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OLYMPICS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES N ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE RAIN.
ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A
SECOND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. KAM/MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY GIVING LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST TERMINALS. THE
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS AROUND 015 TONIGHT WILL FALL TO 007-010 12Z THROUGH 22Z
TUE. SE WIND 7-10 KT WITH WIND SW 35 KT AT 020. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND WESTWARD TO 140W. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND FRASER OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER FRI INTO SAT AS COLD HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALBRECHT

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 250450
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN...MILD TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING A COOLER DRIER PERIOD THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS WITH THIS FIRST FEATURE HAVE SO FAR NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. RADAR SHOWS A RELATIVE
LULL IN RAINFALL WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
REACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
RE-DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT
FEATURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY 2-3 MORE INCHES
IN THE CASCADES AND UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS. THE LOWLANDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY WHICH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH IN A FEW HOURS TIME COULD CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES IN THE LOWLANDS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL...THE NEWER 00Z MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE
WET PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE WARM FRONTAL WAVE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY WILL LIFT
NWD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REPRIEVE IN STEADY RAIN
ACROSS S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WRN WA. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE BAND MAY
STILL PRODUCE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE FAR N CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OLYMPICS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY INCREASE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING ON RIVER BASINS AFFECTED BY STRONG WLY FLOW.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWING INTO WRN WA ON
THURSDAY. STRONGER S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADD TO RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD RISK THERE.
WHILE THIS FRONT COULD TEMPORARILY WORSEN THE FLOOD
THREAT...PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EASE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. MERCER


.LONG TERM...NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON MOVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY THE LEFTOVER
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE MAIN LOW OFFSHORE. COOLER DRIER N FLOW ALOFT
AND AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S OVER B.C.  COULD GET SOME BREEZY NE OUTFLOW
OVER THE N INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY AS
WELL BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD YET...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY COULD BE DRIED OUT AND SUNSHINE INCREASED. THE
COOL DRY FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE...BUT MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

IF MODELS DO BRING PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE OREGON COAST SPREADING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WRN WA
INCLUDING THE CASCADES WILL SEE A LULL IN RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PUYALLUP AND
COWLITZ RIVERS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT
MULTIPLE RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SNOQUALMIE...STILLAGUAMISH...
SKAGIT...AND NOOKSACK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER B.C. AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAS 3 TO 4.5
INCHES SPREAD GENERALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY. BULLSEYES OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE PRESENT OVER MT
BAKER AND MT RAINIER RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THE CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW THE OLYMPICS GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS W FLOW EVENT MIGHT DRIVE THE
BOGACHIEL RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. THE EARLIER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
COVERS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OLYMPICS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES N ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE RAIN.
ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A
SECOND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. KAM/MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY GIVING LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST TERMINALS. THE
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS AROUND 015 TONIGHT WILL FALL TO 007-010 12Z THROUGH 22Z
TUE. SE WIND 7-10 KT WITH WIND SW 35 KT AT 020. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND WESTWARD TO 140W. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND FRASER OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER FRI INTO SAT AS COLD HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALBRECHT

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 250450
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN...MILD TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING A COOLER DRIER PERIOD THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS WITH THIS FIRST FEATURE HAVE SO FAR NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. RADAR SHOWS A RELATIVE
LULL IN RAINFALL WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
REACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
RE-DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT
FEATURE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY 2-3 MORE INCHES
IN THE CASCADES AND UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS. THE LOWLANDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY WHICH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH IN A FEW HOURS TIME COULD CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES IN THE LOWLANDS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL...THE NEWER 00Z MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE
WET PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE WARM FRONTAL WAVE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY WILL LIFT
NWD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REPRIEVE IN STEADY RAIN
ACROSS S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WRN WA. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE BAND MAY
STILL PRODUCE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE FAR N CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OLYMPICS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY INCREASE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING ON RIVER BASINS AFFECTED BY STRONG WLY FLOW.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWING INTO WRN WA ON
THURSDAY. STRONGER S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADD TO RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD RISK THERE.
WHILE THIS FRONT COULD TEMPORARILY WORSEN THE FLOOD
THREAT...PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EASE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. MERCER


.LONG TERM...NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON MOVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY THE LEFTOVER
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE MAIN LOW OFFSHORE. COOLER DRIER N FLOW ALOFT
AND AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S OVER B.C.  COULD GET SOME BREEZY NE OUTFLOW
OVER THE N INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY AS
WELL BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD YET...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY COULD BE DRIED OUT AND SUNSHINE INCREASED. THE
COOL DRY FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE...BUT MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

IF MODELS DO BRING PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE OREGON COAST SPREADING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WRN WA
INCLUDING THE CASCADES WILL SEE A LULL IN RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PUYALLUP AND
COWLITZ RIVERS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT
MULTIPLE RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SNOQUALMIE...STILLAGUAMISH...
SKAGIT...AND NOOKSACK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER B.C. AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAS 3 TO 4.5
INCHES SPREAD GENERALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY. BULLSEYES OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE PRESENT OVER MT
BAKER AND MT RAINIER RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THE CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW THE OLYMPICS GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS W FLOW EVENT MIGHT DRIVE THE
BOGACHIEL RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. THE EARLIER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
COVERS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OLYMPICS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES N ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE RAIN.
ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A
SECOND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. KAM/MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY GIVING LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST TERMINALS. THE
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS AROUND 015 TONIGHT WILL FALL TO 007-010 12Z THROUGH 22Z
TUE. SE WIND 7-10 KT WITH WIND SW 35 KT AT 020. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND WESTWARD TO 140W. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND FRASER OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER FRI INTO SAT AS COLD HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALBRECHT

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 242359
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN SETTLE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING RAIN...MILD TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY BRING A COOLER DRIER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE WITH
THE AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. MODELS AND IR IMAGERY SHOW HEALTHY WARM
ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SPREAD RAIN INLAND OVER
W WA THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL RADAR SHOWS A BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP
OFFSHORE WHICH SHOULD BE THE INITIAL WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL W
FLOW ALOFT WITH HEALTHY WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED MORE ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT THE MAIN WARM
ADVECTION AREA OVER THE N CASCADES. THE QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND DROPS 3 TO 4.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
CASCADES...WITH BULLSEYES OF 5-7 INCHES OVER MT BAKER AND MT
RAINIER...OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE
CASCADES TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LOWLANDS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY END
UP RANGING FROM ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH.
THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION WILL PROBABLY BE PARTIALLY SHADOWED
BY THE OLYMPICS IN THIS W FLOW PATTERN.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OVER B.C. WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THE MOIST AIR MASS COULD STILL
DROP A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...SO POPS ARE IN THE CHANCE RANGE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING
A LITTLE MORE LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS.

W FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS ANOTHER
BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND TUESDAYS WARM FRONT WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BREEZY SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. ALL THE WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RATHER MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE 45-50 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. KAM

.LONG TERM...ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON
MOVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACTUALLY THE LEFTOVER OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE MAIN LOW OFFSHORE.
COOLER DRIER N FLOW ALOFT AND AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S OVER B.C.  COULD GET
SOME BREEZY NE OUTFLOW OVER THE N INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY AS
WELL BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD YET...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY COULD BE DRIED OUT AND SUNSHINE INCREASED. THE
COOL DRY FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE...BUT MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

IF MODELS DO BRING PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE OREGON COAST SPREADING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMING THROUGH THE BROAD FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WHOLE CASCADES WILL GET
A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN THIS EVENING FROM AN INITIAL WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PUYALLUP AND
COWLITZ RIVERS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT
MULTIPLE RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SNOQUALMIE...STILLAGUAMISH...
SKAGIT...AND NOOKSACK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER B.C. AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAS 3 TO 4.5
INCHES SPREAD GENERALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY. BULLSEYES OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE PRESENT OVER MT
BAKER AND MT RAINIER RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THE CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW THE OLYMPICS GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS W FLOW EVENT MIGHT DRIVE THE
BOGACHIEL RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. THE EARLIER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
COVERS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OLYMPICS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES N ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE RAIN.
ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A
SECOND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS WILL GIVE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
AND LOWER THIS EVENING GIVING 3-5K FT CEILINGS THEN MVFR 1-2K FT
CEILINGS TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHEAST WIND 5-8 KT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO S10G20 KT TONIGHT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER ALL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL STRAIT WHERE A BRIEF WESTERLY PUSH IS
LIKELY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ON FRIDAY A COLD HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA WITH FRASER OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 242359
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN SETTLE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING RAIN...MILD TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY BRING A COOLER DRIER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE WITH
THE AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. MODELS AND IR IMAGERY SHOW HEALTHY WARM
ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SPREAD RAIN INLAND OVER
W WA THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL RADAR SHOWS A BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP
OFFSHORE WHICH SHOULD BE THE INITIAL WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL W
FLOW ALOFT WITH HEALTHY WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED MORE ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT THE MAIN WARM
ADVECTION AREA OVER THE N CASCADES. THE QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND DROPS 3 TO 4.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
CASCADES...WITH BULLSEYES OF 5-7 INCHES OVER MT BAKER AND MT
RAINIER...OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE
CASCADES TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LOWLANDS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY END
UP RANGING FROM ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH.
THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION WILL PROBABLY BE PARTIALLY SHADOWED
BY THE OLYMPICS IN THIS W FLOW PATTERN.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OVER B.C. WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THE MOIST AIR MASS COULD STILL
DROP A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...SO POPS ARE IN THE CHANCE RANGE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING
A LITTLE MORE LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS.

W FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS ANOTHER
BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND TUESDAYS WARM FRONT WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BREEZY SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. ALL THE WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RATHER MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE 45-50 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. KAM

.LONG TERM...ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON
MOVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACTUALLY THE LEFTOVER OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE MAIN LOW OFFSHORE.
COOLER DRIER N FLOW ALOFT AND AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S OVER B.C.  COULD GET
SOME BREEZY NE OUTFLOW OVER THE N INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY AS
WELL BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD YET...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY COULD BE DRIED OUT AND SUNSHINE INCREASED. THE
COOL DRY FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE...BUT MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

IF MODELS DO BRING PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE OREGON COAST SPREADING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMING THROUGH THE BROAD FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WHOLE CASCADES WILL GET
A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN THIS EVENING FROM AN INITIAL WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PUYALLUP AND
COWLITZ RIVERS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT
MULTIPLE RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SNOQUALMIE...STILLAGUAMISH...
SKAGIT...AND NOOKSACK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER B.C. AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAS 3 TO 4.5
INCHES SPREAD GENERALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY. BULLSEYES OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE PRESENT OVER MT
BAKER AND MT RAINIER RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THE CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW THE OLYMPICS GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS W FLOW EVENT MIGHT DRIVE THE
BOGACHIEL RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. THE EARLIER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
COVERS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OLYMPICS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES N ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE RAIN.
ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A
SECOND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS WILL GIVE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
AND LOWER THIS EVENING GIVING 3-5K FT CEILINGS THEN MVFR 1-2K FT
CEILINGS TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHEAST WIND 5-8 KT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO S10G20 KT TONIGHT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER ALL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL STRAIT WHERE A BRIEF WESTERLY PUSH IS
LIKELY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ON FRIDAY A COLD HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA WITH FRASER OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 242359
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN SETTLE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING RAIN...MILD TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY BRING A COOLER DRIER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE WITH
THE AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. MODELS AND IR IMAGERY SHOW HEALTHY WARM
ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SPREAD RAIN INLAND OVER
W WA THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL RADAR SHOWS A BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP
OFFSHORE WHICH SHOULD BE THE INITIAL WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL W
FLOW ALOFT WITH HEALTHY WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED MORE ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT THE MAIN WARM
ADVECTION AREA OVER THE N CASCADES. THE QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND DROPS 3 TO 4.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
CASCADES...WITH BULLSEYES OF 5-7 INCHES OVER MT BAKER AND MT
RAINIER...OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE
CASCADES TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LOWLANDS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY END
UP RANGING FROM ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH.
THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION WILL PROBABLY BE PARTIALLY SHADOWED
BY THE OLYMPICS IN THIS W FLOW PATTERN.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OVER B.C. WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THE MOIST AIR MASS COULD STILL
DROP A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...SO POPS ARE IN THE CHANCE RANGE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING
A LITTLE MORE LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS.

W FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS ANOTHER
BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND TUESDAYS WARM FRONT WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BREEZY SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. ALL THE WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RATHER MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE 45-50 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. KAM

.LONG TERM...ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON
MOVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACTUALLY THE LEFTOVER OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE MAIN LOW OFFSHORE.
COOLER DRIER N FLOW ALOFT AND AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S OVER B.C.  COULD GET
SOME BREEZY NE OUTFLOW OVER THE N INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY AS
WELL BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD YET...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY COULD BE DRIED OUT AND SUNSHINE INCREASED. THE
COOL DRY FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE...BUT MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

IF MODELS DO BRING PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE OREGON COAST SPREADING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMING THROUGH THE BROAD FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WHOLE CASCADES WILL GET
A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN THIS EVENING FROM AN INITIAL WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PUYALLUP AND
COWLITZ RIVERS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT
MULTIPLE RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SNOQUALMIE...STILLAGUAMISH...
SKAGIT...AND NOOKSACK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER B.C. AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAS 3 TO 4.5
INCHES SPREAD GENERALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY. BULLSEYES OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE PRESENT OVER MT
BAKER AND MT RAINIER RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THE CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW THE OLYMPICS GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS W FLOW EVENT MIGHT DRIVE THE
BOGACHIEL RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. THE EARLIER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
COVERS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OLYMPICS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES N ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE RAIN.
ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A
SECOND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS WILL GIVE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
AND LOWER THIS EVENING GIVING 3-5K FT CEILINGS THEN MVFR 1-2K FT
CEILINGS TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHEAST WIND 5-8 KT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO S10G20 KT TONIGHT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER ALL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL STRAIT WHERE A BRIEF WESTERLY PUSH IS
LIKELY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ON FRIDAY A COLD HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA WITH FRASER OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 242359
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN SETTLE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING RAIN...MILD TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY BRING A COOLER DRIER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE WITH
THE AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. MODELS AND IR IMAGERY SHOW HEALTHY WARM
ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SPREAD RAIN INLAND OVER
W WA THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL RADAR SHOWS A BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP
OFFSHORE WHICH SHOULD BE THE INITIAL WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL W
FLOW ALOFT WITH HEALTHY WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED MORE ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT THE MAIN WARM
ADVECTION AREA OVER THE N CASCADES. THE QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND DROPS 3 TO 4.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
CASCADES...WITH BULLSEYES OF 5-7 INCHES OVER MT BAKER AND MT
RAINIER...OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE
CASCADES TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LOWLANDS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY END
UP RANGING FROM ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH.
THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION WILL PROBABLY BE PARTIALLY SHADOWED
BY THE OLYMPICS IN THIS W FLOW PATTERN.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OVER B.C. WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THE MOIST AIR MASS COULD STILL
DROP A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...SO POPS ARE IN THE CHANCE RANGE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING
A LITTLE MORE LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS.

W FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS ANOTHER
BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND TUESDAYS WARM FRONT WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BREEZY SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. ALL THE WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RATHER MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE 45-50 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. KAM

.LONG TERM...ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON
MOVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACTUALLY THE LEFTOVER OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE MAIN LOW OFFSHORE.
COOLER DRIER N FLOW ALOFT AND AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S OVER B.C.  COULD GET
SOME BREEZY NE OUTFLOW OVER THE N INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY AS
WELL BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD YET...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS SOLUTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY COULD BE DRIED OUT AND SUNSHINE INCREASED. THE
COOL DRY FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE...BUT MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.

IF MODELS DO BRING PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE OREGON COAST SPREADING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMING THROUGH THE BROAD FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WHOLE CASCADES WILL GET
A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN THIS EVENING FROM AN INITIAL WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT
SNOQUALMIE PASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PUYALLUP AND
COWLITZ RIVERS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT
MULTIPLE RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SNOQUALMIE...STILLAGUAMISH...
SKAGIT...AND NOOKSACK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER B.C. AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAS 3 TO 4.5
INCHES SPREAD GENERALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY. BULLSEYES OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE PRESENT OVER MT
BAKER AND MT RAINIER RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERING THE CASCADES.

MODELS SHOW THE OLYMPICS GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS W FLOW EVENT MIGHT DRIVE THE
BOGACHIEL RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. THE EARLIER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
COVERS THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OLYMPICS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES N ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE RAIN.
ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A
SECOND PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS WILL GIVE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
AND LOWER THIS EVENING GIVING 3-5K FT CEILINGS THEN MVFR 1-2K FT
CEILINGS TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHEAST WIND 5-8 KT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO S10G20 KT TONIGHT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER ALL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL STRAIT WHERE A BRIEF WESTERLY PUSH IS
LIKELY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ON FRIDAY A COLD HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA WITH FRASER OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KOTX 242349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
348 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet and mild storm system will arrive tonight and persist
through Tuesday night. Rain and mountain snow is expected to
develop this evening. Minor snow accumulations are expected in the
valleys near the Canadian border this evening, meanwhile
significant mountain can be expected across northeast Washington
and much of north Idaho. A breezy and wet but warm Thanksgiving
Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the holiday
weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow
levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: A wet and mild northwest flow will be over
the region early this week. The upper level pattern shows a large
ridge of high pressure centered off the West coast with a stream
of Pacific moisture rolling over the top. The ridge will remain
stationary and flattens slightly, allowing this moisture with
embedded disturbances to slide southeastward and into the Inland
Northwest. Clouds have thicken quickly today and radar shows light
echoes across the northeast Washington and panhandle mountains
showing some very light precipitation. This trend will increase
during the night and into Tuesday with good orographic lift. The
tricky part of the forecast will temperatures and precipitation
type near the Canadian border. Currently wet bulb zero
temperatures are near freezing or slightly above. With the initial
onset of precipitation, expect some light snow near Laurier,
Metaline and Eastport near the border. But temperatures are
expected to slowly climb and anticipate a rain/snow mix in these
areas by this evening. The mountains of northeast Washington and
north Idaho stand to see significant amounts of snow, but amounts
look to more moderate, with 6 to 11 inches expected. Opted to
replace the Winter Storm Watch with a Winter Weather Advisory that
will run through the night and into Tuesday evening before snow
levels finally jump to the higher mountains. Anticipate some
accumulating snow in the east slopes of the Northern Cascades
especially near the crest, but snow levels will be on the rise and
valleys will stand to see only minor accumulations. The
precipitation will be prolonged and the main concern will be the
steady rain that will mount especially across the lower elevations
of north Idaho and southeast Washington. Due the frozen ground,
ponding of water in low spots is possible and fast running creeks
and streams are possible. /rfox.

Tuesday night through Friday...The well advertised wet weather pattern
is quickly becoming a reality. A ridge is building in the eastern
Pacific Today through Wednesday...then the ridge will flatten
Thursday and Friday as the next arctic front begins to drop south
through B.C. This puts the region in a northwest flow through
Wednesday night...becoming westerly Thursday and Friday. More
importantly deep warm over-running moisture will move over the
ridge and into the northern zones by tonight. The fire hose will
linger across the northern zones through Friday. This will be a
very wet several days. PWAT`s are pushing 250-300 percent of
normal which is very moist at any time of the year. Isentropic up-
glide will increase to night and remain across at least the
northern third of the forecast area. In addition southwest flow
will remain across the northern zones through Friday with

Precipitation: Yes and quite a bit through Friday. Moderate to
strong isentropic up-glide will increase tonight and then remain
elevated through the week...mainly over the northern mountains. In
addition breezy southwest winds will result in good orographic
lift across the northern and eastern highlands. Lastly the models
are indicating a deformation band developing over the northern
zones late Tuesday afternoon that slowly lifts northward Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This would further enhance the precipitation
Tuesday night through mid-day Wednesday. Storm total precipitation
amounts will range from around a tenth in the basin which will get
rained shadowed by the Cascades to 1-4 inches for the higher
elevations of the Cascades and 1-3 inches of water for the
northeast WA and ID Panhandle mountains from tonight through
Friday afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain on a light snow pack will
increase run off into area small rivers, creeks and streams. These
smaller water ways will see rapid fluctuations beginning tonight,
but at this time are net expected to go over their banks. But do
expect some soggy low lying fields and very muddy roads

Snow: With strong warm air advection and breezy/gusty southwest
winds snow levels will increase rapidly to above 6k feet by
Tuesday night and remain high through the period. The exception
will be a small slice across the Boundary and Pend Oreille county
where the cooler air will be a little more difficult to scour out.
As such expect mainly a moderate to heavy rain event for most
locales and moderate to heavy snow for the highest peaks. A winter
weather advisory will be out to cover the snow.

Temperatures and wind: As mentioned above there will be strong
warm air advection and breezy/gusty south-southwest winds.
Temperatures will increase both Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will
be from the lower 40s to mid 50s each day. Temperatures will be a
few degrees cooler Thursday as the arctic front begins to
influence the area from the north. South-southwest of 10-25 mph
with gusts 25-35 mph will be common across the region. Tobin

Friday night through Monday night: A period of transition is
forecast to occur on Friday night. There is good agreement in a
cold front dropping south through the Inland Northwest Friday
night/Saturday, which will bring much colder temperatures to the
Inland Northwest (mid 20s to low 30s). This is a little slower
than what we saw on yesterday`s model runs, so the timing of the
cold frontal passage is not as high as we would like. This cold
airmass will bring snow levels down most valley floors through the
weekend. The question is how much moisture will be available early
on to generate precipitation. There will likely be some
precipitation remaining on Friday night, and a transition from
rain to snow should occur from north to south, including many of
the valleys. The precipitation may be on its last legs by this
point, so getting any snowfall of significance may be hard to
come by. The exception would be the central Idaho Panhandle
mountains, where an extended period of upslope snow showers may
occur. Drier air will filter south which should shut off most
precipitation Saturday night. Right now Sunday is the wild card
day. The far extended models are brining moisture in from the
south, which would overrun the cold air that is in place. This
could potentially cause some travel disruptions, especially over
the passes. We`ll see how/if the models continue to bring this
moisture in in future runs. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratiform precipitation will begin across the region
this evening and increase through the night and Tuesday.
Precipitation will remain in the forecast at times through
Friday. The exception will be for KEAT where rain shadowing off
the Cascades will result in only short periods of light rain.
VFR/MVFR conditions will quickly begin to decrease after 03-05z
with the onset of the precipitation...and fluctuate between
MVFR/IFR conditions as precipitation intensifies and fog develops.
Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  41  37  48  38  49 /  80  60  80  50  30  40
Coeur d`Alene  36  41  36  46  36  46 /  90  80  90  70  50  40
Pullman        39  49  44  52  39  52 /  80  80  80  30  10  30
Lewiston       42  53  45  56  42  54 /  80  70  50  20  10  20
Colville       31  39  33  44  35  45 /  80  50  90  60  60  60
Sandpoint      33  39  33  42  33  42 / 100  60 100  80  70  70
Kellogg        34  39  35  42  36  42 / 100  90 100  70  60  60
Moses Lake     36  47  40  53  39  53 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Wenatchee      37  46  39  50  38  48 /  20  20  40  30  20  30
Omak           31  39  34  44  34  43 /  20  60  60  60  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 242349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
348 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet and mild storm system will arrive tonight and persist
through Tuesday night. Rain and mountain snow is expected to
develop this evening. Minor snow accumulations are expected in the
valleys near the Canadian border this evening, meanwhile
significant mountain can be expected across northeast Washington
and much of north Idaho. A breezy and wet but warm Thanksgiving
Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the holiday
weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow
levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: A wet and mild northwest flow will be over
the region early this week. The upper level pattern shows a large
ridge of high pressure centered off the West coast with a stream
of Pacific moisture rolling over the top. The ridge will remain
stationary and flattens slightly, allowing this moisture with
embedded disturbances to slide southeastward and into the Inland
Northwest. Clouds have thicken quickly today and radar shows light
echoes across the northeast Washington and panhandle mountains
showing some very light precipitation. This trend will increase
during the night and into Tuesday with good orographic lift. The
tricky part of the forecast will temperatures and precipitation
type near the Canadian border. Currently wet bulb zero
temperatures are near freezing or slightly above. With the initial
onset of precipitation, expect some light snow near Laurier,
Metaline and Eastport near the border. But temperatures are
expected to slowly climb and anticipate a rain/snow mix in these
areas by this evening. The mountains of northeast Washington and
north Idaho stand to see significant amounts of snow, but amounts
look to more moderate, with 6 to 11 inches expected. Opted to
replace the Winter Storm Watch with a Winter Weather Advisory that
will run through the night and into Tuesday evening before snow
levels finally jump to the higher mountains. Anticipate some
accumulating snow in the east slopes of the Northern Cascades
especially near the crest, but snow levels will be on the rise and
valleys will stand to see only minor accumulations. The
precipitation will be prolonged and the main concern will be the
steady rain that will mount especially across the lower elevations
of north Idaho and southeast Washington. Due the frozen ground,
ponding of water in low spots is possible and fast running creeks
and streams are possible. /rfox.

Tuesday night through Friday...The well advertised wet weather pattern
is quickly becoming a reality. A ridge is building in the eastern
Pacific Today through Wednesday...then the ridge will flatten
Thursday and Friday as the next arctic front begins to drop south
through B.C. This puts the region in a northwest flow through
Wednesday night...becoming westerly Thursday and Friday. More
importantly deep warm over-running moisture will move over the
ridge and into the northern zones by tonight. The fire hose will
linger across the northern zones through Friday. This will be a
very wet several days. PWAT`s are pushing 250-300 percent of
normal which is very moist at any time of the year. Isentropic up-
glide will increase to night and remain across at least the
northern third of the forecast area. In addition southwest flow
will remain across the northern zones through Friday with

Precipitation: Yes and quite a bit through Friday. Moderate to
strong isentropic up-glide will increase tonight and then remain
elevated through the week...mainly over the northern mountains. In
addition breezy southwest winds will result in good orographic
lift across the northern and eastern highlands. Lastly the models
are indicating a deformation band developing over the northern
zones late Tuesday afternoon that slowly lifts northward Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This would further enhance the precipitation
Tuesday night through mid-day Wednesday. Storm total precipitation
amounts will range from around a tenth in the basin which will get
rained shadowed by the Cascades to 1-4 inches for the higher
elevations of the Cascades and 1-3 inches of water for the
northeast WA and ID Panhandle mountains from tonight through
Friday afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain on a light snow pack will
increase run off into area small rivers, creeks and streams. These
smaller water ways will see rapid fluctuations beginning tonight,
but at this time are net expected to go over their banks. But do
expect some soggy low lying fields and very muddy roads

Snow: With strong warm air advection and breezy/gusty southwest
winds snow levels will increase rapidly to above 6k feet by
Tuesday night and remain high through the period. The exception
will be a small slice across the Boundary and Pend Oreille county
where the cooler air will be a little more difficult to scour out.
As such expect mainly a moderate to heavy rain event for most
locales and moderate to heavy snow for the highest peaks. A winter
weather advisory will be out to cover the snow.

Temperatures and wind: As mentioned above there will be strong
warm air advection and breezy/gusty south-southwest winds.
Temperatures will increase both Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will
be from the lower 40s to mid 50s each day. Temperatures will be a
few degrees cooler Thursday as the arctic front begins to
influence the area from the north. South-southwest of 10-25 mph
with gusts 25-35 mph will be common across the region. Tobin

Friday night through Monday night: A period of transition is
forecast to occur on Friday night. There is good agreement in a
cold front dropping south through the Inland Northwest Friday
night/Saturday, which will bring much colder temperatures to the
Inland Northwest (mid 20s to low 30s). This is a little slower
than what we saw on yesterday`s model runs, so the timing of the
cold frontal passage is not as high as we would like. This cold
airmass will bring snow levels down most valley floors through the
weekend. The question is how much moisture will be available early
on to generate precipitation. There will likely be some
precipitation remaining on Friday night, and a transition from
rain to snow should occur from north to south, including many of
the valleys. The precipitation may be on its last legs by this
point, so getting any snowfall of significance may be hard to
come by. The exception would be the central Idaho Panhandle
mountains, where an extended period of upslope snow showers may
occur. Drier air will filter south which should shut off most
precipitation Saturday night. Right now Sunday is the wild card
day. The far extended models are brining moisture in from the
south, which would overrun the cold air that is in place. This
could potentially cause some travel disruptions, especially over
the passes. We`ll see how/if the models continue to bring this
moisture in in future runs. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratiform precipitation will begin across the region
this evening and increase through the night and Tuesday.
Precipitation will remain in the forecast at times through
Friday. The exception will be for KEAT where rain shadowing off
the Cascades will result in only short periods of light rain.
VFR/MVFR conditions will quickly begin to decrease after 03-05z
with the onset of the precipitation...and fluctuate between
MVFR/IFR conditions as precipitation intensifies and fog develops.
Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  41  37  48  38  49 /  80  60  80  50  30  40
Coeur d`Alene  36  41  36  46  36  46 /  90  80  90  70  50  40
Pullman        39  49  44  52  39  52 /  80  80  80  30  10  30
Lewiston       42  53  45  56  42  54 /  80  70  50  20  10  20
Colville       31  39  33  44  35  45 /  80  50  90  60  60  60
Sandpoint      33  39  33  42  33  42 / 100  60 100  80  70  70
Kellogg        34  39  35  42  36  42 / 100  90 100  70  60  60
Moses Lake     36  47  40  53  39  53 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Wenatchee      37  46  39  50  38  48 /  20  20  40  30  20  30
Omak           31  39  34  44  34  43 /  20  60  60  60  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 242234
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet and mild storm system will arrive tonight and persist
through Tuesday night. Rain and mountain snow is expected to
develop this evening. Minor snow accumulations are expected in the
valleys near the Canadian border this evening, meanwhile
significant mountain can be expected across northeast Washington
and much of north Idaho. A breezy and wet but warm Thanksgiving
Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the holiday
weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow
levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: A wet and mild northwest flow will be over
the region early this week. The upper level pattern shows a large
ridge of high pressure centered off the West coast with a stream
of Pacific moisture rolling over the top. The ridge will remain
stationary and flattens slightly, allowing this moisture with
embedded disturbances to slide southeastward and into the Inland
Northwest. Clouds have thicken quickly today and radar shows light
echoes across the northeast Washington and panhandle mountains
showing some very light precipitation. This trend will increase
during the night and into Tuesday with good orographic lift. The
tricky part of the forecast will temperatures and precipitation
type near the Canadian border. Currently wet bulb zero
temperatures are near freezing or slightly above. With the initial
onset of precipitation, expect some light snow near Laurier,
Metaline and Eastport near the border. But temperatures are
expected to slowly climb and anticipate a rain/snow mix in these
areas by this evening. The mountains of northeast Washington and
north Idaho stand to see significant amounts of snow, but amounts
look to more moderate, with 6 to 11 inches expected. Opted to
replace the Winter Storm Watch with a Winter Weather Advisory that
will run through the night and into Tuesday evening before snow
levels finally jump to the higher mountains. Anticipate some
accumulating snow in the east slopes of the Northern Cascades
especially near the crest, but snow levels will be on the rise and
valleys will stand to see only minor accumulations. The
precipitation will be prolonged and the main concern will be the
steady rain that will mount especially across the lower elevations
of north Idaho and southeast Washington. Due the frozen ground,
ponding of water in low spots is possible and fast running creeks
and streams are possible. /rfox.

Tuesday night through Friday...The well advertised wet weather pattern
is quickly becoming a reality. A ridge is building in the eastern
Pacific Today through Wednesday...then the ridge will flatten
Thursday and Friday as the next arctic front begins to drop south
through B.C. This puts the region in a northwest flow through
Wednesday night...becoming westerly Thursday and Friday. More
importantly deep warm over-running moisture will move over the
ridge and into the northern zones by tonight. The fire hose will
linger across the northern zones through Friday. This will be a
very wet several days. PWAT`s are pushing 250-300 percent of
normal which is very moist at any time of the year. Isentropic up-
glide will increase to night and remain across at least the
northern third of the forecast area. In addition southwest flow
will remain across the northern zones through Friday with

Precipitation: Yes and quite a bit through Friday. Moderate to
strong isentropic up-glide will increase tonight and then remain
elevated through the week...mainly over the northern mountains. In
addition breezy southwest winds will result in good orographic
lift across the northern and eastern highlands. Lastly the models
are indicating a deformation band developing over the northern
zones late Tuesday afternoon that slowly lifts northward Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This would further enhance the precipitation
Tuesday night through mid-day Wednesday. Storm total precipitation
amounts will range from around a tenth in the basin which will get
rained shadowed by the Cascades to 1-4 inches for the higher
elevations of the Cascades and 1-3 inches of water for the
northeast WA and ID Panhandle mountains from tonight through
Friday afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain on a light snow pack will
increase run off into area small rivers, creeks and streams. These
smaller water ways will see rapid fluctuations beginning tonight,
but at this time are net expected to go over their banks. But do
expect some soggy low lying fields and very muddy roads

Snow: With strong warm air advection and breezy/gusty southwest
winds snow levels will increase rapidly to above 6k feet by
Tuesday night and remain high through the period. The exception
will be a small slice across the Boundary and Pend Oreille county
where the cooler air will be a little more difficult to scour out.
As such expect mainly a moderate to heavy rain event for most
locales and moderate to heavy snow for the highest peaks. A winter
weather advisory will be out to cover the snow.

Temperatures and wind: As mentioned above there will be strong
warm air advection and breezy/gusty south-southwest winds.
Temperatures will increase both Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will
be from the lower 40s to mid 50s each day. Temperatures will be a
few degrees cooler Thursday as the arctic front begins to
influence the area from the north. South-southwest of 10-25 mph
with gusts 25-35 mph will be common across the region. /Tobin

Friday night through Monday night: A period of transition is
forecast to occur on Friday night. There is good agreement in a
cold front dropping south through the Inland Northwest Friday
night/Saturday, which will bring much colder temperatures to the
Inland Northwest (mid 20s to low 30s). This is a little slower
than what we saw on yesterday`s model runs, so the timing of the
cold frontal passage is not as high as we would like. This cold
airmass will bring snow levels down most valley floors through the
weekend. The question is how much moisture will be available early
on to generate precipitation. There will likely be some
precipitation remaining on Friday night, and a transition from
rain to snow should occur from north to south, including many of
the valleys. The precipitation may be on its last legs by this
point, so getting any snowfall of significance may be hard to
come by. The exception would be the central Idaho Panhandle
mountains, where an extended period of upslope snow showers may
occur. Drier air will filter south which should shut off most
precipitation Saturday night. Right now Sunday is the wild card
day. The far extended models are brining moisture in from the
south, which would overrun the cold air that is in place. This
could potentially cause some travel disruptions, especially over
the passes. We`ll see how/if the models continue to bring this
moisture in in future runs. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and stayed out of the TAF sites this
morning and high/mid clouds will be increasing today giving a VFR
day. The NAM and GFS forecast the development of precipitation
by 0z-3z with rain at Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Pullman and
Lewiston, and including most valley locations. This precipitation
will persist for much of the night, tapering off after 14z. /rfox.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  41  37  48  38  49 /  80  60  80  50  30  40
Coeur d`Alene  36  41  36  46  36  46 /  90  80  90  70  50  40
Pullman        39  49  44  52  39  52 /  80  80  80  30  10  30
Lewiston       42  53  45  56  42  54 /  80  70  50  20  10  20
Colville       31  39  33  44  35  45 /  80  50  90  60  60  60
Sandpoint      33  39  33  42  33  42 / 100  60 100  80  70  70
Kellogg        34  39  35  42  36  42 / 100  90 100  70  60  60
Moses Lake     36  47  40  53  39  53 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Wenatchee      37  46  39  50  38  48 /  20  20  40  30  20  30
Omak           31  39  34  44  34  43 /  20  60  60  60  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 242228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BAND BEGINS
TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO DO SO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING
DAY. A CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS STARTING TO SHOW UP NEAR THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST ON KRTX
DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 21Z. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS TO BE OVER SW WA. A WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINC ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND
EXTREME NW OREGON TONIGHT. THE NOAA OPERATIONAL BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON THE SW WA
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1
TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z
PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
THE QPF IN SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON FOR THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
NO RIVER CONCERNS AS OF YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SHOULD THE GFS
NUMBERS TURN OUT MORE ACCURATE.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS. MODELS ARE
COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. OVER-RUNNING PRECIP MAY REACH THE COAST
AS EARLY AS 06Z THU...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND THEREAFTER. HIGHEST
QPF LOOKS TO STAY IN WASHINGTON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR JET STREAM
PHASING SOMEWHERE NEAR PUGET SOUND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING
SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS
HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE
COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS.
THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE
LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO
MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N 130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE
OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF
SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT
OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO HIGH. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOWERS CIGS AND RAIN OR FOG REDUCES VISIBILITIES.
THE COAST SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WITH THE
FRONT THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN DECREASES AND WINDS
CALM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPDX AND ALONG THE OREGON COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING CIGS
AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING MVFR CONDITIONS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT IS GENERATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...VERIFYING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
STILL EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH
THE FRONT PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. THE
WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS OR GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE
WATERS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED
OR WED NIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE WATCH TO LIMIT
THE CONFUSION OF MULTIPLE HEADLINES.

COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE
HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS.  THE
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE
NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     PST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 242228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BAND BEGINS
TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO DO SO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING
DAY. A CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS STARTING TO SHOW UP NEAR THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST ON KRTX
DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 21Z. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS TO BE OVER SW WA. A WARM
FRONTAL BAROCLINC ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND
EXTREME NW OREGON TONIGHT. THE NOAA OPERATIONAL BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON THE SW WA
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1
TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z
PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
THE QPF IN SW WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON FOR THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
NO RIVER CONCERNS AS OF YET...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SHOULD THE GFS
NUMBERS TURN OUT MORE ACCURATE.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS. MODELS ARE
COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. OVER-RUNNING PRECIP MAY REACH THE COAST
AS EARLY AS 06Z THU...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND THEREAFTER. HIGHEST
QPF LOOKS TO STAY IN WASHINGTON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR JET STREAM
PHASING SOMEWHERE NEAR PUGET SOUND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING
SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS
HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE
COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS.
THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE
LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO
MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N 130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE
OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF
SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT
OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO HIGH. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOWERS CIGS AND RAIN OR FOG REDUCES VISIBILITIES.
THE COAST SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WITH THE
FRONT THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN DECREASES AND WINDS
CALM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPDX AND ALONG THE OREGON COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING CIGS
AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING MVFR CONDITIONS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT IS GENERATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...VERIFYING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
STILL EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH
THE FRONT PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. THE
WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS OR GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE
WATERS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED
OR WED NIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE WATCH TO LIMIT
THE CONFUSION OF MULTIPLE HEADLINES.

COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE
HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS.  THE
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE
NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     PST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




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