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000
FXUS66 KOTX 051027
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 AM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday: As the Eastern United States continues to
feel winter`s wrath, the Pacific Northwest will remain experience
more unseasonably mild and dry weather the next several days.
Split flow over the Western U.S. will continue to direct the storm
track well north of our region. Our 500mb high pressure ridge will
flatten a bit today allowing some thin cirrus to pass over the
region. The high cloud cover probably won`t inhibit our warming
trend much. We should see upper 40s to mid 50s in the lowlands
today. Another upper level disturbance is progged by the models to
flatten the ridge on Saturday. At this time, it looks like
precipitation with this system will be well north of the British
Columbia border. The weekend is shaping up to be mild and dry with
relatively light winds. /GKoch

Sunday through Thursday: A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest for the weekend into early next week
with continued dry and mild weather. This ridge is fixed with a
low off the eastern Pacific while the northern storm track lies
across southern Canada. This storm track will help dampen the
ridge slightly by Monday. But by Tuesday, the medium range models
diverge with the GFS being the more aggressive and radial
solution compared to the ECWMF and Canadian. The GFS spins up a
stronger shortwave in the northern stream and drops down from the
Gulf of AK. Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian continue to keep the
ridge in place. The GFS ensemble plots suggest low confidence on
the operational GFS solution. Opted for a slower and more
conservative solution and leaned toward the Canadian, the more
medium of the road solution. This pattern flattens the ridge
slightly to introduce a small chance of precipitation on Tuesday
night and into Wednesday. By mid week, the presence of the Pacific
low creeping closer to the West coast, helps spread moisture into
the region. Despite the model discrepancies, all show a moister
flow. Still leaning toward the more consistent ECMWF and away from
the GFS which keeps snow levels and temperatures above normal.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Flat high pressure and a dry low level air mass will
result in a continuation of VFR conditions through 06z Friday.
Winds will remain light, with high clouds passing through the
region.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        49  30  53  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  28  54  31  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        51  32  56  36  57  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  33  60  37  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       51  25  55  30  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      46  26  51  29  52  29 /   0   0  10   0  10   0
Kellogg        46  31  50  33  51  33 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake     54  30  60  34  61  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      55  36  59  40  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           53  31  57  34  60  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 051027
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 AM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday: As the Eastern United States continues to
feel winter`s wrath, the Pacific Northwest will remain experience
more unseasonably mild and dry weather the next several days.
Split flow over the Western U.S. will continue to direct the storm
track well north of our region. Our 500mb high pressure ridge will
flatten a bit today allowing some thin cirrus to pass over the
region. The high cloud cover probably won`t inhibit our warming
trend much. We should see upper 40s to mid 50s in the lowlands
today. Another upper level disturbance is progged by the models to
flatten the ridge on Saturday. At this time, it looks like
precipitation with this system will be well north of the British
Columbia border. The weekend is shaping up to be mild and dry with
relatively light winds. /GKoch

Sunday through Thursday: A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest for the weekend into early next week
with continued dry and mild weather. This ridge is fixed with a
low off the eastern Pacific while the northern storm track lies
across southern Canada. This storm track will help dampen the
ridge slightly by Monday. But by Tuesday, the medium range models
diverge with the GFS being the more aggressive and radial
solution compared to the ECWMF and Canadian. The GFS spins up a
stronger shortwave in the northern stream and drops down from the
Gulf of AK. Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian continue to keep the
ridge in place. The GFS ensemble plots suggest low confidence on
the operational GFS solution. Opted for a slower and more
conservative solution and leaned toward the Canadian, the more
medium of the road solution. This pattern flattens the ridge
slightly to introduce a small chance of precipitation on Tuesday
night and into Wednesday. By mid week, the presence of the Pacific
low creeping closer to the West coast, helps spread moisture into
the region. Despite the model discrepancies, all show a moister
flow. Still leaning toward the more consistent ECMWF and away from
the GFS which keeps snow levels and temperatures above normal.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Flat high pressure and a dry low level air mass will
result in a continuation of VFR conditions through 06z Friday.
Winds will remain light, with high clouds passing through the
region.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        49  30  53  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  28  54  31  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        51  32  56  36  57  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  33  60  37  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       51  25  55  30  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      46  26  51  29  52  29 /   0   0  10   0  10   0
Kellogg        46  31  50  33  51  33 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake     54  30  60  34  61  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      55  36  59  40  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           53  31  57  34  60  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 051020
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PST THU MAR  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DRY AND MILD WEATHER. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE AREA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST. THESE CLOUDS HAVE REDUCED
RADIATION COOLING OVERNIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE NOT
AS COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS BUT THERE ARE ONLY POCKETS OF NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AGAIN TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING IN THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT EXCEPT THE PASSING FRONT TO THE
NORTH MAY INCREASE THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A TAD AND THERE MAY
BE A A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL FOG LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW THE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST
FRIDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN FORECASTS LESS MOISTURE WITH THE WIND
REVERSAL THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...LESSENING THE CHANCE FOR COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THESE CLOUDS FROM MOVING CLOSER TO THE
COAST TONIGHT. WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHETHER THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUNSHINE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WARMING TO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...ECMWF AND GEM
MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MON WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z GFS
BROKE RANKS WITH OTHER MODELS IN DIGGING A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN
FROM THE NW MON...BUT A LOOK THROUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION PREFER TO CONTINUE CLOSER TO THOSE
MODELS. AFTER DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUN AND MON...A SYSTEM EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE E PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE S WA AND N
OREGON COAST NEAR THE BAYS AS WELL AS NEAR KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
BOWEN/MH
&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS HAVE EASED OVER THE WATERS AS DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE
DECREASED. THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND THU. NAM MODEL STILL SUGGESTING A WIND
REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 2 OR 3 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
BOWEN/MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 051020
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PST THU MAR  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DRY AND MILD WEATHER. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE AREA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST. THESE CLOUDS HAVE REDUCED
RADIATION COOLING OVERNIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE NOT
AS COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS BUT THERE ARE ONLY POCKETS OF NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AGAIN TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING IN THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT EXCEPT THE PASSING FRONT TO THE
NORTH MAY INCREASE THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A TAD AND THERE MAY
BE A A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL FOG LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW THE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST
FRIDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN FORECASTS LESS MOISTURE WITH THE WIND
REVERSAL THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...LESSENING THE CHANCE FOR COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THESE CLOUDS FROM MOVING CLOSER TO THE
COAST TONIGHT. WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHETHER THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUNSHINE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WARMING TO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...ECMWF AND GEM
MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MON WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z GFS
BROKE RANKS WITH OTHER MODELS IN DIGGING A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN
FROM THE NW MON...BUT A LOOK THROUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION PREFER TO CONTINUE CLOSER TO THOSE
MODELS. AFTER DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUN AND MON...A SYSTEM EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE E PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE S WA AND N
OREGON COAST NEAR THE BAYS AS WELL AS NEAR KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
BOWEN/MH
&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS HAVE EASED OVER THE WATERS AS DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE
DECREASED. THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND THU. NAM MODEL STILL SUGGESTING A WIND
REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 2 OR 3 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
BOWEN/MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050530
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
930 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to increase sky cover slightly tonight. Satellite
imagery shows a large area of high clouds near and west of
Vancouver Island associated with a low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. These clouds will come down into the area from the
west-northwest overnight leading to increasing high clouds into
Thursday morning. With these high clouds thin...strong radiational
cooling is still expected tonight. Light winds and a very dry low
level air mass will greatly contribute to this radiational cooling.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Flat high pressure and a dry low level air mass will
result in a continuation of VFR conditions through 06z Friday.
Winds will remain light, with high clouds passing through the
region.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050530
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
930 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to increase sky cover slightly tonight. Satellite
imagery shows a large area of high clouds near and west of
Vancouver Island associated with a low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. These clouds will come down into the area from the
west-northwest overnight leading to increasing high clouds into
Thursday morning. With these high clouds thin...strong radiational
cooling is still expected tonight. Light winds and a very dry low
level air mass will greatly contribute to this radiational cooling.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Flat high pressure and a dry low level air mass will
result in a continuation of VFR conditions through 06z Friday.
Winds will remain light, with high clouds passing through the
region.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050530
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
930 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to increase sky cover slightly tonight. Satellite
imagery shows a large area of high clouds near and west of
Vancouver Island associated with a low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. These clouds will come down into the area from the
west-northwest overnight leading to increasing high clouds into
Thursday morning. With these high clouds thin...strong radiational
cooling is still expected tonight. Light winds and a very dry low
level air mass will greatly contribute to this radiational cooling.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Flat high pressure and a dry low level air mass will
result in a continuation of VFR conditions through 06z Friday.
Winds will remain light, with high clouds passing through the
region.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050530
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
930 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to increase sky cover slightly tonight. Satellite
imagery shows a large area of high clouds near and west of
Vancouver Island associated with a low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. These clouds will come down into the area from the
west-northwest overnight leading to increasing high clouds into
Thursday morning. With these high clouds thin...strong radiational
cooling is still expected tonight. Light winds and a very dry low
level air mass will greatly contribute to this radiational cooling.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Flat high pressure and a dry low level air mass will
result in a continuation of VFR conditions through 06z Friday.
Winds will remain light, with high clouds passing through the
region.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050508
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&

.EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...EXPECT MANY OF THE OUTLYING VALLEYS TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH MOST INTERIOR VALLEY AND COASTAL LOCATIONS
DROPPING DOWN NEAR FREEZING. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST EARLY THU MORNING. THU SHOULD AGAIN SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO
THE 50S. ADDED A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FCST THU...WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. PYLE

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 PM WED MAR 4...
.SHORT TERM...MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
WEAK N OFFSHORE FLOW TO SWITCH AROUND TO A S FLOW ALONG THE COAST
FRI. FLOW HOWEVER APPEARS TO REMAIN WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. INLAND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THIS TIME. H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPS THROUGH SAT FOR
INLAND AREAS. BY SAT AFTERNOON SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
THE N AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO SHAKE MOST OF THE
MARINE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF AND GEM MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MON
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z GFS BROKE RANKS WITH OTHER MODELS IN DIGGING
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW MON...BUT A LOOK THROUGH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION PREFER
TO CONTINUE CLOSER TO THOSE MODELS. AFTER DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUN
AND MON...A SYSTEM EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE E
PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY NEAR KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
/MH

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS HAVE EASED OVER THE WATERS AS DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE
DECREASED. THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND THU. NAM MODEL STILL SUGGESTING A WIND
REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 2 OR 3 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050508
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&

.EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...EXPECT MANY OF THE OUTLYING VALLEYS TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH MOST INTERIOR VALLEY AND COASTAL LOCATIONS
DROPPING DOWN NEAR FREEZING. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST EARLY THU MORNING. THU SHOULD AGAIN SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO
THE 50S. ADDED A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FCST THU...WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. PYLE

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 PM WED MAR 4...
.SHORT TERM...MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
WEAK N OFFSHORE FLOW TO SWITCH AROUND TO A S FLOW ALONG THE COAST
FRI. FLOW HOWEVER APPEARS TO REMAIN WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. INLAND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THIS TIME. H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPS THROUGH SAT FOR
INLAND AREAS. BY SAT AFTERNOON SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
THE N AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO SHAKE MOST OF THE
MARINE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF AND GEM MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MON
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z GFS BROKE RANKS WITH OTHER MODELS IN DIGGING
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW MON...BUT A LOOK THROUGH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION PREFER
TO CONTINUE CLOSER TO THOSE MODELS. AFTER DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUN
AND MON...A SYSTEM EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE E
PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY NEAR KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
/MH

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS HAVE EASED OVER THE WATERS AS DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE
DECREASED. THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND THU. NAM MODEL STILL SUGGESTING A WIND
REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 2 OR 3 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050508
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&

.EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...EXPECT MANY OF THE OUTLYING VALLEYS TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH MOST INTERIOR VALLEY AND COASTAL LOCATIONS
DROPPING DOWN NEAR FREEZING. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST EARLY THU MORNING. THU SHOULD AGAIN SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO
THE 50S. ADDED A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FCST THU...WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. PYLE

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 PM WED MAR 4...
.SHORT TERM...MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
WEAK N OFFSHORE FLOW TO SWITCH AROUND TO A S FLOW ALONG THE COAST
FRI. FLOW HOWEVER APPEARS TO REMAIN WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. INLAND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THIS TIME. H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPS THROUGH SAT FOR
INLAND AREAS. BY SAT AFTERNOON SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
THE N AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO SHAKE MOST OF THE
MARINE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF AND GEM MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MON
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z GFS BROKE RANKS WITH OTHER MODELS IN DIGGING
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW MON...BUT A LOOK THROUGH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION PREFER
TO CONTINUE CLOSER TO THOSE MODELS. AFTER DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUN
AND MON...A SYSTEM EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE E
PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY NEAR KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
/MH

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS HAVE EASED OVER THE WATERS AS DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE
DECREASED. THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND THU. NAM MODEL STILL SUGGESTING A WIND
REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 2 OR 3 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050508
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&

.EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...EXPECT MANY OF THE OUTLYING VALLEYS TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH MOST INTERIOR VALLEY AND COASTAL LOCATIONS
DROPPING DOWN NEAR FREEZING. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST EARLY THU MORNING. THU SHOULD AGAIN SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO
THE 50S. ADDED A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FCST THU...WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. PYLE

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 PM WED MAR 4...
.SHORT TERM...MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
WEAK N OFFSHORE FLOW TO SWITCH AROUND TO A S FLOW ALONG THE COAST
FRI. FLOW HOWEVER APPEARS TO REMAIN WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. INLAND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THIS TIME. H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPS THROUGH SAT FOR
INLAND AREAS. BY SAT AFTERNOON SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
THE N AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO SHAKE MOST OF THE
MARINE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF AND GEM MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MON
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z GFS BROKE RANKS WITH OTHER MODELS IN DIGGING
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW MON...BUT A LOOK THROUGH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION PREFER
TO CONTINUE CLOSER TO THOSE MODELS. AFTER DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUN
AND MON...A SYSTEM EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE E
PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY NEAR KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
/MH

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS HAVE EASED OVER THE WATERS AS DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE
DECREASED. THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND THU. NAM MODEL STILL SUGGESTING A WIND
REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 2 OR 3 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050508
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&

.EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...EXPECT MANY OF THE OUTLYING VALLEYS TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH MOST INTERIOR VALLEY AND COASTAL LOCATIONS
DROPPING DOWN NEAR FREEZING. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST EARLY THU MORNING. THU SHOULD AGAIN SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO
THE 50S. ADDED A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FCST THU...WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. PYLE

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 PM WED MAR 4...
.SHORT TERM...MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
WEAK N OFFSHORE FLOW TO SWITCH AROUND TO A S FLOW ALONG THE COAST
FRI. FLOW HOWEVER APPEARS TO REMAIN WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. INLAND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THIS TIME. H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPS THROUGH SAT FOR
INLAND AREAS. BY SAT AFTERNOON SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
THE N AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO SHAKE MOST OF THE
MARINE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF AND GEM MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MON
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z GFS BROKE RANKS WITH OTHER MODELS IN DIGGING
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW MON...BUT A LOOK THROUGH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION PREFER
TO CONTINUE CLOSER TO THOSE MODELS. AFTER DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUN
AND MON...A SYSTEM EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE E
PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY NEAR KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
/MH

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS HAVE EASED OVER THE WATERS AS DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE
DECREASED. THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND THU. NAM MODEL STILL SUGGESTING A WIND
REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 2 OR 3 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050508
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&

.EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...EXPECT MANY OF THE OUTLYING VALLEYS TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH MOST INTERIOR VALLEY AND COASTAL LOCATIONS
DROPPING DOWN NEAR FREEZING. THIS SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST EARLY THU MORNING. THU SHOULD AGAIN SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO
THE 50S. ADDED A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE FCST THU...WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. PYLE

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 200 PM WED MAR 4...
.SHORT TERM...MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
WEAK N OFFSHORE FLOW TO SWITCH AROUND TO A S FLOW ALONG THE COAST
FRI. FLOW HOWEVER APPEARS TO REMAIN WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. INLAND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THIS TIME. H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPS THROUGH SAT FOR
INLAND AREAS. BY SAT AFTERNOON SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
THE N AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO SHAKE MOST OF THE
MARINE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF AND GEM MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MON
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z GFS BROKE RANKS WITH OTHER MODELS IN DIGGING
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW MON...BUT A LOOK THROUGH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION PREFER
TO CONTINUE CLOSER TO THOSE MODELS. AFTER DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUN
AND MON...A SYSTEM EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE E
PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY NEAR KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
/MH

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS HAVE EASED OVER THE WATERS AS DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE
DECREASED. THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND THU. NAM MODEL STILL SUGGESTING A WIND
REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 2 OR 3 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 050434
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
834 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM CROSSING BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS
CENTERED OUT ALONG 130W THIS EVENING WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER W WA.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 45N/135W AT 00Z WILL MOVE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN B.C. ON
THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT REGARDING
PRECIP FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW NO QPF
OVER W WA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 POPS OVER THE N COAST AND N
CASCADES...BUT THIS MAY BE DROPPED IN THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE.

24HR CHANGES AT 8 PM SHOW TEMPS 1-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS 2-8 DEGREES HIGHER. WITH A LITTLE CONTRIBUTION FROM
SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY MORNING. STILL...SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO
THEIR FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO A MINOR UPDATE MIGHT BE NEEDED.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REBUILD A BIT THEN HANG ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF
SHOW 850 MB TEMPS AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES INCREASING...AND BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS MOS HAVE MAX TEMPS AT KSEA IN THE 58-60 DEGREE RANGE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 230 PM AFD...DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE 12Z GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND AN UPPER TROUGH AND SOME RAIN REACHING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS WESTERN WA DRY TIL WED...AND THE
TWO MODELS COME ABOUT THE RAIN IN DIFFERENT WAYS SO THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STARTING AROUND TUE OF NEXT WEEK
BUT A FLIP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE NORMAL IS BOUND TO HAPPEN
EVENTUALLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS
SRN B.C. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS INTO WRN
WA AT TIMES. DRY IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

KSEA...N-NE WIND 4-7 KT TONIGHT WILL BECOME VARIABLE ON THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL RESULT IN WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT MAY REACH THE WATERS BY
MONDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 050434
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
834 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM CROSSING BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS
CENTERED OUT ALONG 130W THIS EVENING WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER W WA.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 45N/135W AT 00Z WILL MOVE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN B.C. ON
THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT REGARDING
PRECIP FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW NO QPF
OVER W WA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 POPS OVER THE N COAST AND N
CASCADES...BUT THIS MAY BE DROPPED IN THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE.

24HR CHANGES AT 8 PM SHOW TEMPS 1-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS 2-8 DEGREES HIGHER. WITH A LITTLE CONTRIBUTION FROM
SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY MORNING. STILL...SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO
THEIR FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO A MINOR UPDATE MIGHT BE NEEDED.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REBUILD A BIT THEN HANG ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF
SHOW 850 MB TEMPS AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES INCREASING...AND BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS MOS HAVE MAX TEMPS AT KSEA IN THE 58-60 DEGREE RANGE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 230 PM AFD...DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE 12Z GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND AN UPPER TROUGH AND SOME RAIN REACHING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS WESTERN WA DRY TIL WED...AND THE
TWO MODELS COME ABOUT THE RAIN IN DIFFERENT WAYS SO THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STARTING AROUND TUE OF NEXT WEEK
BUT A FLIP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE NORMAL IS BOUND TO HAPPEN
EVENTUALLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS
SRN B.C. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS INTO WRN
WA AT TIMES. DRY IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

KSEA...N-NE WIND 4-7 KT TONIGHT WILL BECOME VARIABLE ON THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL RESULT IN WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT MAY REACH THE WATERS BY
MONDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KOTX 050309
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
709 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to increase sky cover slightly tonight. Satellite
imagery shows a large area of high clouds near and west of
Vancouver Island associated with a low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. These clouds will come down into the area from the
west-northwest overnight leading to increasing high clouds into
Thursday morning. With these high clouds thin...strong radiational
cooling is still expected tonight. Light winds and a very dry low
level air mass will greatly contribute to this radiational cooling.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect generally clear
skies and light, terrain-driven/diurnal winds to prevail at the
TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho through Thurs. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050309
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
709 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to increase sky cover slightly tonight. Satellite
imagery shows a large area of high clouds near and west of
Vancouver Island associated with a low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. These clouds will come down into the area from the
west-northwest overnight leading to increasing high clouds into
Thursday morning. With these high clouds thin...strong radiational
cooling is still expected tonight. Light winds and a very dry low
level air mass will greatly contribute to this radiational cooling.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect generally clear
skies and light, terrain-driven/diurnal winds to prevail at the
TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho through Thurs. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042332
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
332 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Fri Nt...Under a building upper ridge, light
winds and mostly clear skies, expect another cold night with low
temps below normal. There are two subtle waves that will produce
increasing cloud cover over the area...one Thur and the other Fri.
Both of these have warm advection/modest isentropic ascent as the
main synoptic-scale forcing for ascent as the low-level flow backs
to southwesterly with wave passage. However, due to the lack of deep
ascent, a stable environment, and dry air below about 700mb, any
light pcpn should be limited to the mtns close to the BC border
and possibly as far south as the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle.bz

Saturday through Wednesday: Dry conditions continue through at
least Monday, with mild temperatures, before the next opportunity
for precipitation returns. Through at least Monday the jet stream
remains north of the Canadian border, lifting as far north as
northern BC/AB by Sunday. This directs the Pacific shortwaves away
from our region. Aside from some middle to high clouds, the
weather looks dry. The only potential exception skims by the
northeast WA/north ID border with BC Saturday afternoon when the
tail end of a shortwave passes. A few models show an isolated
shower threat here. The threat is too small to put in forecast,
but it will be monitored.

Between Monday night and Wednesday models attempt to bring a
system in from the Pacific. Precisely how this will evolve is not
clear as there is a fair amount of model disagreement. Most
recently the GFS trended quicker, bringing a system in from the
Gulf of AK Monday night and Tuesday. The ECMWF keeps that system
entirely north and instead carries a system from the Central
Pacific inland Tuesday night or Wednesday. The DGEX is more in
line with the GFS, but slower. The Canadian model is more in line
with the ECMWF. Depictions are likely to waver over the next
several days. However the GFS seems like the biggest outlier.
Based on recent performance and in comparison to other models, the
GFS seems to bring the precipitation in too quick. What is more
starkly different at this time is the temperature and snow level
difference between the GFS and ECMWF. Next Wednesday the GFS was
showing snow levels near 0 and the ECMWF was showing snow levels
near 7000 feet. The GFS will be monitored, but it was largely not
used for the latter part of the forecast. Either way look for
some increasing threat of precipitation across the region Tuesday
and Wednesday. Confidence is highest across the Cascades and
northern mountains.

As for temperatures, milder air surges in. Regional 850mb
temperatures will be on the rise through the end of week, leveling
in the lower to middle single digits C. This correlates to surface
highs reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Confidence is
reasonably high through Monday. Thereafter confidence drops some.
The quicker solutions push highs back down toward seasonal norms
by Tuesday. Slower models push temperatures up even more. Again
trending away from the GFS, I keep things mild through Tuesday,
then offer a relative cool down Wednesday. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect generally clear
skies and light, terrain-driven/diurnal winds to prevail at the
TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho through Thurs.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042332
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
332 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Fri Nt...Under a building upper ridge, light
winds and mostly clear skies, expect another cold night with low
temps below normal. There are two subtle waves that will produce
increasing cloud cover over the area...one Thur and the other Fri.
Both of these have warm advection/modest isentropic ascent as the
main synoptic-scale forcing for ascent as the low-level flow backs
to southwesterly with wave passage. However, due to the lack of deep
ascent, a stable environment, and dry air below about 700mb, any
light pcpn should be limited to the mtns close to the BC border
and possibly as far south as the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle.bz

Saturday through Wednesday: Dry conditions continue through at
least Monday, with mild temperatures, before the next opportunity
for precipitation returns. Through at least Monday the jet stream
remains north of the Canadian border, lifting as far north as
northern BC/AB by Sunday. This directs the Pacific shortwaves away
from our region. Aside from some middle to high clouds, the
weather looks dry. The only potential exception skims by the
northeast WA/north ID border with BC Saturday afternoon when the
tail end of a shortwave passes. A few models show an isolated
shower threat here. The threat is too small to put in forecast,
but it will be monitored.

Between Monday night and Wednesday models attempt to bring a
system in from the Pacific. Precisely how this will evolve is not
clear as there is a fair amount of model disagreement. Most
recently the GFS trended quicker, bringing a system in from the
Gulf of AK Monday night and Tuesday. The ECMWF keeps that system
entirely north and instead carries a system from the Central
Pacific inland Tuesday night or Wednesday. The DGEX is more in
line with the GFS, but slower. The Canadian model is more in line
with the ECMWF. Depictions are likely to waver over the next
several days. However the GFS seems like the biggest outlier.
Based on recent performance and in comparison to other models, the
GFS seems to bring the precipitation in too quick. What is more
starkly different at this time is the temperature and snow level
difference between the GFS and ECMWF. Next Wednesday the GFS was
showing snow levels near 0 and the ECMWF was showing snow levels
near 7000 feet. The GFS will be monitored, but it was largely not
used for the latter part of the forecast. Either way look for
some increasing threat of precipitation across the region Tuesday
and Wednesday. Confidence is highest across the Cascades and
northern mountains.

As for temperatures, milder air surges in. Regional 850mb
temperatures will be on the rise through the end of week, leveling
in the lower to middle single digits C. This correlates to surface
highs reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Confidence is
reasonably high through Monday. Thereafter confidence drops some.
The quicker solutions push highs back down toward seasonal norms
by Tuesday. Slower models push temperatures up even more. Again
trending away from the GFS, I keep things mild through Tuesday,
then offer a relative cool down Wednesday. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect generally clear
skies and light, terrain-driven/diurnal winds to prevail at the
TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho through Thurs.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 042332
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
332 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Fri Nt...Under a building upper ridge, light
winds and mostly clear skies, expect another cold night with low
temps below normal. There are two subtle waves that will produce
increasing cloud cover over the area...one Thur and the other Fri.
Both of these have warm advection/modest isentropic ascent as the
main synoptic-scale forcing for ascent as the low-level flow backs
to southwesterly with wave passage. However, due to the lack of deep
ascent, a stable environment, and dry air below about 700mb, any
light pcpn should be limited to the mtns close to the BC border
and possibly as far south as the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle.bz

Saturday through Wednesday: Dry conditions continue through at
least Monday, with mild temperatures, before the next opportunity
for precipitation returns. Through at least Monday the jet stream
remains north of the Canadian border, lifting as far north as
northern BC/AB by Sunday. This directs the Pacific shortwaves away
from our region. Aside from some middle to high clouds, the
weather looks dry. The only potential exception skims by the
northeast WA/north ID border with BC Saturday afternoon when the
tail end of a shortwave passes. A few models show an isolated
shower threat here. The threat is too small to put in forecast,
but it will be monitored.

Between Monday night and Wednesday models attempt to bring a
system in from the Pacific. Precisely how this will evolve is not
clear as there is a fair amount of model disagreement. Most
recently the GFS trended quicker, bringing a system in from the
Gulf of AK Monday night and Tuesday. The ECMWF keeps that system
entirely north and instead carries a system from the Central
Pacific inland Tuesday night or Wednesday. The DGEX is more in
line with the GFS, but slower. The Canadian model is more in line
with the ECMWF. Depictions are likely to waver over the next
several days. However the GFS seems like the biggest outlier.
Based on recent performance and in comparison to other models, the
GFS seems to bring the precipitation in too quick. What is more
starkly different at this time is the temperature and snow level
difference between the GFS and ECMWF. Next Wednesday the GFS was
showing snow levels near 0 and the ECMWF was showing snow levels
near 7000 feet. The GFS will be monitored, but it was largely not
used for the latter part of the forecast. Either way look for
some increasing threat of precipitation across the region Tuesday
and Wednesday. Confidence is highest across the Cascades and
northern mountains.

As for temperatures, milder air surges in. Regional 850mb
temperatures will be on the rise through the end of week, leveling
in the lower to middle single digits C. This correlates to surface
highs reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Confidence is
reasonably high through Monday. Thereafter confidence drops some.
The quicker solutions push highs back down toward seasonal norms
by Tuesday. Slower models push temperatures up even more. Again
trending away from the GFS, I keep things mild through Tuesday,
then offer a relative cool down Wednesday. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect generally clear
skies and light, terrain-driven/diurnal winds to prevail at the
TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho through Thurs.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042332
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
332 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Fri Nt...Under a building upper ridge, light
winds and mostly clear skies, expect another cold night with low
temps below normal. There are two subtle waves that will produce
increasing cloud cover over the area...one Thur and the other Fri.
Both of these have warm advection/modest isentropic ascent as the
main synoptic-scale forcing for ascent as the low-level flow backs
to southwesterly with wave passage. However, due to the lack of deep
ascent, a stable environment, and dry air below about 700mb, any
light pcpn should be limited to the mtns close to the BC border
and possibly as far south as the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle.bz

Saturday through Wednesday: Dry conditions continue through at
least Monday, with mild temperatures, before the next opportunity
for precipitation returns. Through at least Monday the jet stream
remains north of the Canadian border, lifting as far north as
northern BC/AB by Sunday. This directs the Pacific shortwaves away
from our region. Aside from some middle to high clouds, the
weather looks dry. The only potential exception skims by the
northeast WA/north ID border with BC Saturday afternoon when the
tail end of a shortwave passes. A few models show an isolated
shower threat here. The threat is too small to put in forecast,
but it will be monitored.

Between Monday night and Wednesday models attempt to bring a
system in from the Pacific. Precisely how this will evolve is not
clear as there is a fair amount of model disagreement. Most
recently the GFS trended quicker, bringing a system in from the
Gulf of AK Monday night and Tuesday. The ECMWF keeps that system
entirely north and instead carries a system from the Central
Pacific inland Tuesday night or Wednesday. The DGEX is more in
line with the GFS, but slower. The Canadian model is more in line
with the ECMWF. Depictions are likely to waver over the next
several days. However the GFS seems like the biggest outlier.
Based on recent performance and in comparison to other models, the
GFS seems to bring the precipitation in too quick. What is more
starkly different at this time is the temperature and snow level
difference between the GFS and ECMWF. Next Wednesday the GFS was
showing snow levels near 0 and the ECMWF was showing snow levels
near 7000 feet. The GFS will be monitored, but it was largely not
used for the latter part of the forecast. Either way look for
some increasing threat of precipitation across the region Tuesday
and Wednesday. Confidence is highest across the Cascades and
northern mountains.

As for temperatures, milder air surges in. Regional 850mb
temperatures will be on the rise through the end of week, leveling
in the lower to middle single digits C. This correlates to surface
highs reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Confidence is
reasonably high through Monday. Thereafter confidence drops some.
The quicker solutions push highs back down toward seasonal norms
by Tuesday. Slower models push temperatures up even more. Again
trending away from the GFS, I keep things mild through Tuesday,
then offer a relative cool down Wednesday. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect generally clear
skies and light, terrain-driven/diurnal winds to prevail at the
TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho through Thurs.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 042230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any
meaningful precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or
Wednesday next week. A warming trend is expected over the next few
days. By Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above
average, and the mild weather is expected to carry into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Fri Nt...Under a building upper ridge, light
winds and mostly clear skies, expect another cold night with low
temps below normal. There are two subtle waves that will produce
increasing cloud cover over the area...one Thur and the other Fri.
Both of these have warm advection/modest isentropic ascent as the
main synoptic-scale forcing for ascent as the low-level flow backs
to southwesterly with wave passage. However, due to the lack of deep
ascent, a stable environment, and dry air below about 700mb, any
light pcpn should be limited to the mtns close to the BC border
and possibly as far south as the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle.bz


Saturday through Wednesday: Dry conditions continue through at
least Monday, with mild temperatures, before the next opportunity
for precipitation returns. Through at least Monday the jet stream
remains north of the Canadian border, lifting as far north as
northern BC/AB by Sunday. This directs the Pacific shortwaves away
from our region. Aside from some middle to high clouds, the
weather looks dry. The only potential exception skims by the
northeast WA/north ID border with BC Saturday afternoon when the
tail end of a shortwave passes. A few models show an isolated
shower threat here. The threat is too small to put in forecast,
but it will be monitored.

Between Monday night and Wednesday models attempt to bring a
system in from the Pacific. Precisely how this will evolve is not
clear as there is a fair amount of model disagreement. Most
recently the GFS trended quicker, bringing a system in from the
Gulf of AK Monday night and Tuesday. The ECMWF keeps that system
entirely north and instead carries a system from the Central
Pacific inland Tuesday night or Wednesday. The DGEX is more in
line with the GFS, but slower. The Canadian model is more in line
with the ECMWF. Depictions are likely to waver over the next
several days. However the GFS seems like the biggest outlier.
Based on recent performance and in comparison to other models, the
GFS seems to bring the precipitation in too quick. What is more
starkly different at this time is the temperature and snow level
difference between the GFS and ECMWF. Next Wednesday the GFS was
showing snow levels near 0 and the ECMWF was showing snow levels
near 7000 feet. The GFS will be monitored, but it was largely not
used for the latter part of the forecast. Either way look for
some increasing threat of precipitation across the region Tuesday
and Wednesday. Confidence is highest across the Cascades and
northern mountains.

As for temperatures, milder air surges in. Regional 850mb
temperatures will be on the rise through the end of week, leveling
in the lower to middle single digits C. This correlates to surface
highs reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Confidence is
reasonably high through Monday. Thereafter confidence drops some.
The quicker solutions push highs back down toward seasonal norms
by Tuesday. Slower models push temperatures up even more. Again
trending away from the GFS, I keep things mild through Tuesday,
then offer a relative cool down Wednesday. /J. Cote`



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect clear skies
and light winds to prevail at the TAF sites in eastern Washington
and north Idaho through at least Thurs morning. bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any
meaningful precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or
Wednesday next week. A warming trend is expected over the next few
days. By Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above
average, and the mild weather is expected to carry into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Fri Nt...Under a building upper ridge, light
winds and mostly clear skies, expect another cold night with low
temps below normal. There are two subtle waves that will produce
increasing cloud cover over the area...one Thur and the other Fri.
Both of these have warm advection/modest isentropic ascent as the
main synoptic-scale forcing for ascent as the low-level flow backs
to southwesterly with wave passage. However, due to the lack of deep
ascent, a stable environment, and dry air below about 700mb, any
light pcpn should be limited to the mtns close to the BC border
and possibly as far south as the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle.bz


Saturday through Wednesday: Dry conditions continue through at
least Monday, with mild temperatures, before the next opportunity
for precipitation returns. Through at least Monday the jet stream
remains north of the Canadian border, lifting as far north as
northern BC/AB by Sunday. This directs the Pacific shortwaves away
from our region. Aside from some middle to high clouds, the
weather looks dry. The only potential exception skims by the
northeast WA/north ID border with BC Saturday afternoon when the
tail end of a shortwave passes. A few models show an isolated
shower threat here. The threat is too small to put in forecast,
but it will be monitored.

Between Monday night and Wednesday models attempt to bring a
system in from the Pacific. Precisely how this will evolve is not
clear as there is a fair amount of model disagreement. Most
recently the GFS trended quicker, bringing a system in from the
Gulf of AK Monday night and Tuesday. The ECMWF keeps that system
entirely north and instead carries a system from the Central
Pacific inland Tuesday night or Wednesday. The DGEX is more in
line with the GFS, but slower. The Canadian model is more in line
with the ECMWF. Depictions are likely to waver over the next
several days. However the GFS seems like the biggest outlier.
Based on recent performance and in comparison to other models, the
GFS seems to bring the precipitation in too quick. What is more
starkly different at this time is the temperature and snow level
difference between the GFS and ECMWF. Next Wednesday the GFS was
showing snow levels near 0 and the ECMWF was showing snow levels
near 7000 feet. The GFS will be monitored, but it was largely not
used for the latter part of the forecast. Either way look for
some increasing threat of precipitation across the region Tuesday
and Wednesday. Confidence is highest across the Cascades and
northern mountains.

As for temperatures, milder air surges in. Regional 850mb
temperatures will be on the rise through the end of week, leveling
in the lower to middle single digits C. This correlates to surface
highs reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Confidence is
reasonably high through Monday. Thereafter confidence drops some.
The quicker solutions push highs back down toward seasonal norms
by Tuesday. Slower models push temperatures up even more. Again
trending away from the GFS, I keep things mild through Tuesday,
then offer a relative cool down Wednesday. /J. Cote`



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect clear skies
and light winds to prevail at the TAF sites in eastern Washington
and north Idaho through at least Thurs morning. bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        22  49  30  54  33  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  20  49  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        25  52  29  56  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  57  33  58  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       19  52  28  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      18  45  26  48  28  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        19  46  30  50  31  52 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     21  54  29  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  53  36  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           23  53  30  54  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 042218
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ON THURSDAY
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WILL WEAKEN AND THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO
NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND PERSIST SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A 1028 MB HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE
12Z GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND AN UPPER TROUGH AND SOME
RAIN REACHING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS WESTERN WA
DRY TIL WED...AND THE TWO MODELS COME ABOUT THE RAIN IN DIFFERENT
WAYS SO THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STARTING
AROUND TUE OF NEXT WEEK BUT A FLIP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE NORMAL IS
BOUND TO HAPPEN EVENTUALLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WESTERLY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

KSEA...LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL BE VFR CLEAR OR WILL HAVE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. CHB

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 042218
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ON THURSDAY
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WILL WEAKEN AND THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO
NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND PERSIST SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A 1028 MB HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE
12Z GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND AN UPPER TROUGH AND SOME
RAIN REACHING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS WESTERN WA
DRY TIL WED...AND THE TWO MODELS COME ABOUT THE RAIN IN DIFFERENT
WAYS SO THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STARTING
AROUND TUE OF NEXT WEEK BUT A FLIP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE NORMAL IS
BOUND TO HAPPEN EVENTUALLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WESTERLY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

KSEA...LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL BE VFR CLEAR OR WILL HAVE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. CHB

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KPQR 042152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
WEAK N OFFSHORE FLOW TO SWITCH AROUND TO A S FLOW ALONG THE COAST
FRI. FLOW HOWEVER APPEARS TO REMAIN WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. INLAND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THIS TIME. H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPS THROUGH SAT FOR
INLAND AREAS. BY SAT AFTERNOON SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
THE N AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO SHAKE MOST OF THE
MARINE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF AND GEM MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MON
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z GFS BROKE RANKS WITH OTHER MODELS IN DIGGING
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW MON...BUT A LOOK THROUGH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION PREFER
TO CONTINUE CLOSER TO THOSE MODELS. AFTER DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUN
AND MON...A SYSTEM EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE E
PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CLR THROUGH THU AND BEYOND. VERY DIFFUSE
SURFACE THERMAL LOW SITUATED FROM THE N OREGON COAST RANGE TO THE
S OREGON COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT BACK
TO THE COASTLINE TONIGHT FOR VERY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. MAY BE
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON
COAST NEAR THE BAYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
WEISHAAR.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
N WIND TO PEAK THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM
MODEL STILL SUGGESTING A WIND REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU
AND THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 1 OR 2 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 042152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING A DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
WEAK N OFFSHORE FLOW TO SWITCH AROUND TO A S FLOW ALONG THE COAST
FRI. FLOW HOWEVER APPEARS TO REMAIN WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. INLAND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THIS TIME. H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPS THROUGH SAT FOR
INLAND AREAS. BY SAT AFTERNOON SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
THE N AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO SHAKE MOST OF THE
MARINE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF AND GEM MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MON
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 12Z GFS BROKE RANKS WITH OTHER MODELS IN DIGGING
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW MON...BUT A LOOK THROUGH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION PREFER
TO CONTINUE CLOSER TO THOSE MODELS. AFTER DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUN
AND MON...A SYSTEM EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE E
PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CLR THROUGH THU AND BEYOND. VERY DIFFUSE
SURFACE THERMAL LOW SITUATED FROM THE N OREGON COAST RANGE TO THE
S OREGON COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT BACK
TO THE COASTLINE TONIGHT FOR VERY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. MAY BE
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON
COAST NEAR THE BAYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
WEISHAAR.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
N WIND TO PEAK THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM
MODEL STILL SUGGESTING A WIND REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU
AND THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 1 OR 2 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041736
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With rising heights aloft under broad upper ridging today...no
updates to the fcst were made. Expect sunny skies...light
winds...and high temps close to normal this afternoon.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect clear skies
and light winds to prevail at the TAF sites in eastern Washington
and north Idaho through at least Thurs morning. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041736
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With rising heights aloft under broad upper ridging today...no
updates to the fcst were made. Expect sunny skies...light
winds...and high temps close to normal this afternoon.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect clear skies
and light winds to prevail at the TAF sites in eastern Washington
and north Idaho through at least Thurs morning. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041736
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With rising heights aloft under broad upper ridging today...no
updates to the fcst were made. Expect sunny skies...light
winds...and high temps close to normal this afternoon.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Under strengthening upper ridging...expect clear skies
and light winds to prevail at the TAF sites in eastern Washington
and north Idaho through at least Thurs morning. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 041632
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES TODAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS WRN WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NRN PTN OF WRN WA THU AND THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS. THE RIDGE
WILL PROBABLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN BY
ABOUT NEXT TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND
STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS.

KSEA...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHERLY TO 5 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. CHB

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 041632
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES TODAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS WRN WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NRN PTN OF WRN WA THU AND THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS. THE RIDGE
WILL PROBABLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN BY
ABOUT NEXT TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND
STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS.

KSEA...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHERLY TO 5 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. CHB

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 041632
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES TODAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS WRN WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NRN PTN OF WRN WA THU AND THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS. THE RIDGE
WILL PROBABLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN BY
ABOUT NEXT TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND
STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS.

KSEA...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHERLY TO 5 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. CHB

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 041632
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES TODAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS WRN WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NRN PTN OF WRN WA THU AND THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS. THE RIDGE
WILL PROBABLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN BY
ABOUT NEXT TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND
STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS.

KSEA...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHERLY TO 5 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. CHB

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 041617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
818 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S
THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT
MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEAR
130W. AIRMASS WAS DRY THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN 12Z SLE SOUNDING...AND
WILL CONTINUE SO TODAY THROUGH THU WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SLOW
WARMING TO DAYTIME TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS MODEL
FORECAST H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 6C BY THU.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY EVENING AND FLATTEN THE UPPER
RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH...BUT
THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN OREGON WILL RESULT IN A WIND
REVERSAL FOR THE COAST FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
FLORENCE AND NEW PORT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...REACHING TILLAMOOK
AROUND NOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIKELY BRING STRATUS/FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COAST WILL NOT LIKELY BE WARMER FRIDAY...IN FACT THEY MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.

WEAK ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THE MOISTER AND COOLER
COASTAL AIR FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS WILL GO, BUT
EXPECT THE INCREASE OF INLAND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG INLAND. ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING
CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR
ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD
OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND
DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE
DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS
WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE.
THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT, HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD
OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE
ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF
LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CLR THROUGH THU MORNING AND BEYOND.
LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE S WA AND
N OREGON COAST NEAR THE BAYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
WEISHAAR.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
N WIND PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND DIMINISHES TONIGHT. NAM MODEL
STILL SUGGESTING A WIND REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 1 OR 2 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
818 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S
THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT
MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEAR
130W. AIRMASS WAS DRY THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN 12Z SLE SOUNDING...AND
WILL CONTINUE SO TODAY THROUGH THU WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SLOW
WARMING TO DAYTIME TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS MODEL
FORECAST H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 6C BY THU.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY EVENING AND FLATTEN THE UPPER
RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH...BUT
THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN OREGON WILL RESULT IN A WIND
REVERSAL FOR THE COAST FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
FLORENCE AND NEW PORT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...REACHING TILLAMOOK
AROUND NOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIKELY BRING STRATUS/FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COAST WILL NOT LIKELY BE WARMER FRIDAY...IN FACT THEY MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.

WEAK ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THE MOISTER AND COOLER
COASTAL AIR FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS WILL GO, BUT
EXPECT THE INCREASE OF INLAND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG INLAND. ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING
CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR
ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD
OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND
DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE
DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS
WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE.
THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT, HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD
OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE
ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF
LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CLR THROUGH THU MORNING AND BEYOND.
LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE S WA AND
N OREGON COAST NEAR THE BAYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
WEISHAAR.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
N WIND PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND DIMINISHES TONIGHT. NAM MODEL
STILL SUGGESTING A WIND REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 1 OR 2 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
818 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S
THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT
MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEAR
130W. AIRMASS WAS DRY THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN 12Z SLE SOUNDING...AND
WILL CONTINUE SO TODAY THROUGH THU WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SLOW
WARMING TO DAYTIME TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS MODEL
FORECAST H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 6C BY THU.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY EVENING AND FLATTEN THE UPPER
RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH...BUT
THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN OREGON WILL RESULT IN A WIND
REVERSAL FOR THE COAST FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
FLORENCE AND NEW PORT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...REACHING TILLAMOOK
AROUND NOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIKELY BRING STRATUS/FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COAST WILL NOT LIKELY BE WARMER FRIDAY...IN FACT THEY MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.

WEAK ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THE MOISTER AND COOLER
COASTAL AIR FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS WILL GO, BUT
EXPECT THE INCREASE OF INLAND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG INLAND. ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING
CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR
ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD
OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND
DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE
DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS
WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE.
THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT, HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD
OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE
ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF
LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CLR THROUGH THU MORNING AND BEYOND.
LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE S WA AND
N OREGON COAST NEAR THE BAYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
WEISHAAR.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
N WIND PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND DIMINISHES TONIGHT. NAM MODEL
STILL SUGGESTING A WIND REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 1 OR 2 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
818 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S
THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT
MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEAR
130W. AIRMASS WAS DRY THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN 12Z SLE SOUNDING...AND
WILL CONTINUE SO TODAY THROUGH THU WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SLOW
WARMING TO DAYTIME TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS MODEL
FORECAST H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 6C BY THU.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY EVENING AND FLATTEN THE UPPER
RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH...BUT
THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN OREGON WILL RESULT IN A WIND
REVERSAL FOR THE COAST FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
FLORENCE AND NEW PORT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...REACHING TILLAMOOK
AROUND NOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIKELY BRING STRATUS/FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COAST WILL NOT LIKELY BE WARMER FRIDAY...IN FACT THEY MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.

WEAK ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THE MOISTER AND COOLER
COASTAL AIR FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS WILL GO, BUT
EXPECT THE INCREASE OF INLAND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG INLAND. ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING
CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR
ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD
OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND
DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE
DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS
WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE.
THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT, HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD
OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE
ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF
LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CLR THROUGH THU MORNING AND BEYOND.
LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE S WA AND
N OREGON COAST NEAR THE BAYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
WEISHAAR.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
N WIND PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND DIMINISHES TONIGHT. NAM MODEL
STILL SUGGESTING A WIND REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 1 OR 2 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
818 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S
THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT
MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEAR
130W. AIRMASS WAS DRY THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN 12Z SLE SOUNDING...AND
WILL CONTINUE SO TODAY THROUGH THU WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SLOW
WARMING TO DAYTIME TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS MODEL
FORECAST H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 6C BY THU.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY EVENING AND FLATTEN THE UPPER
RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH...BUT
THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN OREGON WILL RESULT IN A WIND
REVERSAL FOR THE COAST FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
FLORENCE AND NEW PORT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...REACHING TILLAMOOK
AROUND NOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIKELY BRING STRATUS/FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COAST WILL NOT LIKELY BE WARMER FRIDAY...IN FACT THEY MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.

WEAK ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THE MOISTER AND COOLER
COASTAL AIR FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS WILL GO, BUT
EXPECT THE INCREASE OF INLAND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG INLAND. ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING
CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR
ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD
OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND
DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE
DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS
WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE.
THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT, HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD
OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE
ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF
LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CLR THROUGH THU MORNING AND BEYOND.
LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE S WA AND
N OREGON COAST NEAR THE BAYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
WEISHAAR.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
N WIND PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND DIMINISHES TONIGHT. NAM MODEL
STILL SUGGESTING A WIND REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 1 OR 2 FOOT
COMPONENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041612
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
812 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With rising heights aloft under broad upper ridging today...no
updates to the fcst were made. Expect sunny skies...light
winds...and high temps close to normal this afternoon.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041612
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
812 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With rising heights aloft under broad upper ridging today...no
updates to the fcst were made. Expect sunny skies...light
winds...and high temps close to normal this afternoon.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041612
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
812 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With rising heights aloft under broad upper ridging today...no
updates to the fcst were made. Expect sunny skies...light
winds...and high temps close to normal this afternoon.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041612
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
812 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With rising heights aloft under broad upper ridging today...no
updates to the fcst were made. Expect sunny skies...light
winds...and high temps close to normal this afternoon.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041612
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
812 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With rising heights aloft under broad upper ridging today...no
updates to the fcst were made. Expect sunny skies...light
winds...and high temps close to normal this afternoon.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041612
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
812 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With rising heights aloft under broad upper ridging today...no
updates to the fcst were made. Expect sunny skies...light
winds...and high temps close to normal this afternoon.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041256
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
456 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041256
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
456 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041256
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
456 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041256
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
456 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041256
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
456 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041256
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
456 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will be the prevailing
condition at the TAF sites in eastern Washington and north Idaho
today and tonight. Strong upper level high pressure currently
off-shore will spread into the Inland Northwest during the next 24
hours bringing the clear and placid conditions. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 041052 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DAY AND DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL RETURN FINE WEATHER TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG 135W EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. THE END RESULT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON IS DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IT
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL FEEL
WARM WITH THE BRIGHT SUN AND MINIMAL WIND.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY THROUGH VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...BUT
SHOW A SMALL CHANCE...20-30 PERCENT...OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...FROM ABOUT FORKS TO NORTH OF
EVERETT NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS ALL CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER. BUT EVEN THE DRY MODELS BRING RATHER THICK HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR
SPRINKLES OR A CHANCE OF 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN NORTH...BUT THE NEXT
FORECAST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THE POPS FROM THE FORECAST
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS AROUND 570 DAM...850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C...AND LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT SEATTLE OR SO
SOUTHWARD TO GET NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS.

THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES STARTING MONDAY AND THE ECMWF AND GFS
START TAKING DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST ON
MONDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THEN BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
TO THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DIGS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MON THROUGH WED. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN CLOUDIER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MON OR TUE...BUT THE GFS WOULD RESULT IN
COOLER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOWFALL IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TIME WILL TELL WHICH SOLUTION WINS OUT. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WA TODAY. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NLY TO 5 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT TUE
OR WED. 33


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 041052
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL RETURN FINE WEATHER TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG 135W EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. THE END RESULT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON IS DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IT
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL FEEL
WARM WITH THE BRIGHT SUN AND MINIMAL WIND.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY THROUGH VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...BUT
SHOW A SMALL CHANCE...20-30 PERCENT...OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...FROM ABOUT FORKS TO NORTH OF
EVERETT NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS ALL CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER. BUT EVEN THE DRY MODELS BRING RATHER THICK HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR
SPRINKLES OR A CHANCE OF 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN NORTH...BUT THE NEXT
FORECAST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THE POPS FROM THE FORECAST
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS AROUND 570 DAM...850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C...AND LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT SEATTLE OR SO
SOUTHWARD TO GET NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS.

THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES STARTING MONDAY AND THE ECMWF AND GFS
START TAKING DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST ON
MONDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THEN BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
TO THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DIGS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MON THROUGH WED. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN CLOUDIER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MON OR TUE...BUT THE GFS WOULD RESULT IN
COOLER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOWFALL IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TIME WILL TELL WHICH SOLUTION WINS OUT. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WA TODAY. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NLY TO 5 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT TUE
OR WED. 33


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 041052
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL RETURN FINE WEATHER TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG 135W EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. THE END RESULT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON IS DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IT
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL FEEL
WARM WITH THE BRIGHT SUN AND MINIMAL WIND.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY THROUGH VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...BUT
SHOW A SMALL CHANCE...20-30 PERCENT...OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...FROM ABOUT FORKS TO NORTH OF
EVERETT NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS ALL CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER. BUT EVEN THE DRY MODELS BRING RATHER THICK HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR
SPRINKLES OR A CHANCE OF 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN NORTH...BUT THE NEXT
FORECAST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THE POPS FROM THE FORECAST
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS AROUND 570 DAM...850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C...AND LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT SEATTLE OR SO
SOUTHWARD TO GET NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS.

THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES STARTING MONDAY AND THE ECMWF AND GFS
START TAKING DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST ON
MONDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THEN BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
TO THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DIGS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MON THROUGH WED. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN CLOUDIER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MON OR TUE...BUT THE GFS WOULD RESULT IN
COOLER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOWFALL IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TIME WILL TELL WHICH SOLUTION WINS OUT. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WA TODAY. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NLY TO 5 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT TUE
OR WED. 33


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 041052
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL RETURN FINE WEATHER TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG 135W EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. THE END RESULT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON IS DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IT
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL FEEL
WARM WITH THE BRIGHT SUN AND MINIMAL WIND.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY THROUGH VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...BUT
SHOW A SMALL CHANCE...20-30 PERCENT...OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...FROM ABOUT FORKS TO NORTH OF
EVERETT NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS ALL CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER. BUT EVEN THE DRY MODELS BRING RATHER THICK HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR
SPRINKLES OR A CHANCE OF 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN NORTH...BUT THE NEXT
FORECAST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THE POPS FROM THE FORECAST
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS AROUND 570 DAM...850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C...AND LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT SEATTLE OR SO
SOUTHWARD TO GET NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS.

THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES STARTING MONDAY AND THE ECMWF AND GFS
START TAKING DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST ON
MONDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THEN BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
TO THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DIGS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MON THROUGH WED. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN CLOUDIER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MON OR TUE...BUT THE GFS WOULD RESULT IN
COOLER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOWFALL IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TIME WILL TELL WHICH SOLUTION WINS OUT. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WA TODAY. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NLY TO 5 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT TUE
OR WED. 33


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 041052
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL RETURN FINE WEATHER TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG 135W EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. THE END RESULT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON IS DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IT
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL FEEL
WARM WITH THE BRIGHT SUN AND MINIMAL WIND.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY THROUGH VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...BUT
SHOW A SMALL CHANCE...20-30 PERCENT...OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...FROM ABOUT FORKS TO NORTH OF
EVERETT NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS ALL CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER. BUT EVEN THE DRY MODELS BRING RATHER THICK HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR
SPRINKLES OR A CHANCE OF 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN NORTH...BUT THE NEXT
FORECAST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THE POPS FROM THE FORECAST
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS AROUND 570 DAM...850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C...AND LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT SEATTLE OR SO
SOUTHWARD TO GET NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS.

THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES STARTING MONDAY AND THE ECMWF AND GFS
START TAKING DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST ON
MONDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THEN BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
TO THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DIGS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MON THROUGH WED. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN CLOUDIER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MON OR TUE...BUT THE GFS WOULD RESULT IN
COOLER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOWFALL IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TIME WILL TELL WHICH SOLUTION WINS OUT. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WA TODAY. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NLY TO 5 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT TUE
OR WED. 33


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 041052 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DAY AND DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL RETURN FINE WEATHER TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG 135W EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. THE END RESULT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON IS DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IT
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL FEEL
WARM WITH THE BRIGHT SUN AND MINIMAL WIND.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY THROUGH VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...BUT
SHOW A SMALL CHANCE...20-30 PERCENT...OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...FROM ABOUT FORKS TO NORTH OF
EVERETT NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS ALL CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER. BUT EVEN THE DRY MODELS BRING RATHER THICK HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR
SPRINKLES OR A CHANCE OF 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN NORTH...BUT THE NEXT
FORECAST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THE POPS FROM THE FORECAST
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS AROUND 570 DAM...850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C...AND LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT SEATTLE OR SO
SOUTHWARD TO GET NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AND LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS.

THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES STARTING MONDAY AND THE ECMWF AND GFS
START TAKING DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST ON
MONDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THEN BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
TO THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DIGS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MON THROUGH WED. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN CLOUDIER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MON OR TUE...BUT THE GFS WOULD RESULT IN
COOLER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOWFALL IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TIME WILL TELL WHICH SOLUTION WINS OUT. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WA TODAY. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NLY TO 5 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
MAY DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE NEXT TUE
OR WED. 33


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KOTX 041026
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure combined with a very dry low level
atmosphere will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through 06z Thursday.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041026
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure combined with a very dry low level
atmosphere will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through 06z Thursday.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041026
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure combined with a very dry low level
atmosphere will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through 06z Thursday.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041026
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure combined with a very dry low level
atmosphere will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through 06z Thursday.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041026
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure combined with a very dry low level
atmosphere will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through 06z Thursday.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041026
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
Precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Split flow over North America will keep the
Inland Northwest high and dry through early next week. The
northern branch of the Polar Jet will remain well north of the
British Columbia border through the weekend. Today into Thursday,
a large 500mb high will spread on-shore leading to a moderation of
our resident chilly air mass. Look for temperatures to be 3 to 5
degrees warmer today than yesterday. The warming trend will
continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, we are looking for
afternoon temperatures to be in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
10 degrees above average. A weak upper level disturbance will
over-top the ridge Thursday into Friday bringing an increase in
mid and high level clouds. The low level air mass will likely be
too dry for rain or snow, so precipitation chances have been
decreased to 20 percent or less, even in the mountainous zones.
/GKoch

Friday night through Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
continue to dictate the weather across the Inland Northwest with
mainly dry and mild conditions. With the ridge axis aloft anchored
off the coast, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest with
minor disturbances brushing along our northern border. Each
disturbance will provide an increase of cloud cover and possible
mountain sprinkles through the weekend. By early next week, the
GFS and ECMWF show subtle difference that weakens the confidence
for later portion of the forecast. The ECMWF wants to hold onto
the strong ridge while Pacific energy and moisture pools in the
eastern Pacific. This would keep the weather continued mild and
mostly dry. The GFS shows a more progressive pattern that flattens
the ridge and brings energy down from the Gulf of AK. The GFS
would bring more unsettled weather by Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Opted to follow the current slower trends depicted by the ECMWF
and keep a drier forecast through early next week. Temperatures
will warm each day and remain above normal for early next week.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure combined with a very dry low level
atmosphere will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through 06z Thursday.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  23  49  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  44  21  49  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  26  52  29  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  27  56  33  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  21  52  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  20  45  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        41  25  46  31  50  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     51  22  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  29  53  36  58  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  23  53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 041006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 AM PST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S
THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT
MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN MOST INLAND TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALSO
DROPPED TO NEAR OR AT FREEZING LIKE ASTORIA AND TILLAMOOK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD BECOMING SMALLER AND THERE MAY BE LOCAL
SPOTS WITH SHALLOW FOG BY SUNRISE, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY
WERE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY EVENING AND FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THESE
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN OREGON WILL RESULT IN A WIND
REVERSAL FOR THE COAST FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
FLORENCE AND NEW PORT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...REACHING TILLAMOOK
AROUND NOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIKELY BRING STRATUS/FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COAST WILL NOT LIKELY BE WARMER FRIDAY...IN FACT THEY MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.

WEAK ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THE MOISTER AND COOLER
COASTAL AIR FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS WILL GO, BUT
EXPECT THE INCREASE OF INLAND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG INLAND. ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...GREAT DAY FOR FLYING. DRY NORTHERLY STABLE FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR
TO MONDAY AM...WILL AGAIN HAVE PATCHY FOG AGAIN THIS AM UNTIL 17Z
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG TO W AND N OF THE FIELD...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
AFFECT OPS AREA.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAY HAVE GUSTS NEAR 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AS A
WEAK THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP THE SOUTH OREGON COAST. SEAS REMAIN
3 TO 5 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 AM PST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S
THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FRONT
MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN MOST INLAND TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALSO
DROPPED TO NEAR OR AT FREEZING LIKE ASTORIA AND TILLAMOOK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD BECOMING SMALLER AND THERE MAY BE LOCAL
SPOTS WITH SHALLOW FOG BY SUNRISE, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY
WERE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY EVENING AND FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THESE
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN OREGON WILL RESULT IN A WIND
REVERSAL FOR THE COAST FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
FLORENCE AND NEW PORT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...REACHING TILLAMOOK
AROUND NOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIKELY BRING STRATUS/FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COAST WILL NOT LIKELY BE WARMER FRIDAY...IN FACT THEY MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.

WEAK ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THE MOISTER AND COOLER
COASTAL AIR FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS WILL GO, BUT
EXPECT THE INCREASE OF INLAND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG INLAND. ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...GREAT DAY FOR FLYING. DRY NORTHERLY STABLE FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR
TO MONDAY AM...WILL AGAIN HAVE PATCHY FOG AGAIN THIS AM UNTIL 17Z
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES UNDER DRY STABLE AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG TO W AND N OF THE FIELD...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
AFFECT OPS AREA.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAY HAVE GUSTS NEAR 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AS A
WEAK THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP THE SOUTH OREGON COAST. SEAS REMAIN
3 TO 5 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 040526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry weather pattern is expected through early next week. As
high pressure builds a gradual warming trend is expected. Near to
slightly below normal temperatures on Wednesday will be replaced
by above normal temperatures Friday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday: Dry and mostly clear conditions dominate
the weather and, after one more cold night, temperatures begin to
warm. Through Wednesday night a ridge of high pressure flops into
the region, littered with some weak mid-level disturbances. Those
disturbances will bring the occasional middle to high clouds but
otherwise dry conditions. The ridge is dampened slightly by
Thursday as a shortwave pushes into British Columbia and a broader
area of high clouds pushes in. Much of the snow that fell Monday
has melted off, but the lack of cloud cover and lighter winds
should still allow for some rather chilly lows Wednesday morning.
Values are expected to be some 10-15 degrees below normal.
Regional temperatures then begin to moderate under the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday, with highs slightly above normal again by
Thursday. There is some potential for patchy fog in some of the
sheltered mountain valleys, especially up toward Stevens and Pend
Oreille and perhaps Boundary county over the next few nights, with
moisture from melting snow allowing for some potential saturation
under bottoming out temperatures. Confidence is low, so it was
left out of the forecast but it will be monitored. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will
dominate over the region. Some mid to high level clouds are
expected to top over the ridge at times and we may even see a
small chance for a shower over the northern mountains. Otherwise,
the region will remain dry and temperatures will experience a
warming trend. Temperatures are expected to be 10-15 degrees
above normal by early next week. This would translate into our
first 60 degree day of the year for many locations. Models
indicate that the ridge will begin to break down after Tuesday of
next week. This is expected to be the best chance for precip in
the foreseeable future. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure combined with a very dry low level
atmosphere will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through 06z Thursday.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  43  22  48  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  15  44  22  49  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        17  44  23  51  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       21  48  26  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       14  45  19  50  25  55 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      15  41  20  45  25  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        15  40  22  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     18  49  23  53  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      24  50  28  54  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           16  48  21  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 040526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry weather pattern is expected through early next week. As
high pressure builds a gradual warming trend is expected. Near to
slightly below normal temperatures on Wednesday will be replaced
by above normal temperatures Friday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday: Dry and mostly clear conditions dominate
the weather and, after one more cold night, temperatures begin to
warm. Through Wednesday night a ridge of high pressure flops into
the region, littered with some weak mid-level disturbances. Those
disturbances will bring the occasional middle to high clouds but
otherwise dry conditions. The ridge is dampened slightly by
Thursday as a shortwave pushes into British Columbia and a broader
area of high clouds pushes in. Much of the snow that fell Monday
has melted off, but the lack of cloud cover and lighter winds
should still allow for some rather chilly lows Wednesday morning.
Values are expected to be some 10-15 degrees below normal.
Regional temperatures then begin to moderate under the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday, with highs slightly above normal again by
Thursday. There is some potential for patchy fog in some of the
sheltered mountain valleys, especially up toward Stevens and Pend
Oreille and perhaps Boundary county over the next few nights, with
moisture from melting snow allowing for some potential saturation
under bottoming out temperatures. Confidence is low, so it was
left out of the forecast but it will be monitored. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will
dominate over the region. Some mid to high level clouds are
expected to top over the ridge at times and we may even see a
small chance for a shower over the northern mountains. Otherwise,
the region will remain dry and temperatures will experience a
warming trend. Temperatures are expected to be 10-15 degrees
above normal by early next week. This would translate into our
first 60 degree day of the year for many locations. Models
indicate that the ridge will begin to break down after Tuesday of
next week. This is expected to be the best chance for precip in
the foreseeable future. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure combined with a very dry low level
atmosphere will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through 06z Thursday.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  43  22  48  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  15  44  22  49  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        17  44  23  51  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       21  48  26  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       14  45  19  50  25  55 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      15  41  20  45  25  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        15  40  22  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     18  49  23  53  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      24  50  28  54  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           16  48  21  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 040526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry weather pattern is expected through early next week. As
high pressure builds a gradual warming trend is expected. Near to
slightly below normal temperatures on Wednesday will be replaced
by above normal temperatures Friday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday: Dry and mostly clear conditions dominate
the weather and, after one more cold night, temperatures begin to
warm. Through Wednesday night a ridge of high pressure flops into
the region, littered with some weak mid-level disturbances. Those
disturbances will bring the occasional middle to high clouds but
otherwise dry conditions. The ridge is dampened slightly by
Thursday as a shortwave pushes into British Columbia and a broader
area of high clouds pushes in. Much of the snow that fell Monday
has melted off, but the lack of cloud cover and lighter winds
should still allow for some rather chilly lows Wednesday morning.
Values are expected to be some 10-15 degrees below normal.
Regional temperatures then begin to moderate under the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday, with highs slightly above normal again by
Thursday. There is some potential for patchy fog in some of the
sheltered mountain valleys, especially up toward Stevens and Pend
Oreille and perhaps Boundary county over the next few nights, with
moisture from melting snow allowing for some potential saturation
under bottoming out temperatures. Confidence is low, so it was
left out of the forecast but it will be monitored. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will
dominate over the region. Some mid to high level clouds are
expected to top over the ridge at times and we may even see a
small chance for a shower over the northern mountains. Otherwise,
the region will remain dry and temperatures will experience a
warming trend. Temperatures are expected to be 10-15 degrees
above normal by early next week. This would translate into our
first 60 degree day of the year for many locations. Models
indicate that the ridge will begin to break down after Tuesday of
next week. This is expected to be the best chance for precip in
the foreseeable future. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure combined with a very dry low level
atmosphere will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through 06z Thursday.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  43  22  48  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  15  44  22  49  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        17  44  23  51  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       21  48  26  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       14  45  19  50  25  55 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      15  41  20  45  25  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        15  40  22  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     18  49  23  53  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      24  50  28  54  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           16  48  21  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 040526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry weather pattern is expected through early next week. As
high pressure builds a gradual warming trend is expected. Near to
slightly below normal temperatures on Wednesday will be replaced
by above normal temperatures Friday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday: Dry and mostly clear conditions dominate
the weather and, after one more cold night, temperatures begin to
warm. Through Wednesday night a ridge of high pressure flops into
the region, littered with some weak mid-level disturbances. Those
disturbances will bring the occasional middle to high clouds but
otherwise dry conditions. The ridge is dampened slightly by
Thursday as a shortwave pushes into British Columbia and a broader
area of high clouds pushes in. Much of the snow that fell Monday
has melted off, but the lack of cloud cover and lighter winds
should still allow for some rather chilly lows Wednesday morning.
Values are expected to be some 10-15 degrees below normal.
Regional temperatures then begin to moderate under the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday, with highs slightly above normal again by
Thursday. There is some potential for patchy fog in some of the
sheltered mountain valleys, especially up toward Stevens and Pend
Oreille and perhaps Boundary county over the next few nights, with
moisture from melting snow allowing for some potential saturation
under bottoming out temperatures. Confidence is low, so it was
left out of the forecast but it will be monitored. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will
dominate over the region. Some mid to high level clouds are
expected to top over the ridge at times and we may even see a
small chance for a shower over the northern mountains. Otherwise,
the region will remain dry and temperatures will experience a
warming trend. Temperatures are expected to be 10-15 degrees
above normal by early next week. This would translate into our
first 60 degree day of the year for many locations. Models
indicate that the ridge will begin to break down after Tuesday of
next week. This is expected to be the best chance for precip in
the foreseeable future. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure combined with a very dry low level
atmosphere will result in mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
through 06z Thursday.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  43  22  48  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  15  44  22  49  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        17  44  23  51  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       21  48  26  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       14  45  19  50  25  55 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      15  41  20  45  25  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        15  40  22  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     18  49  23  53  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      24  50  28  54  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           16  48  21  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 040505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...IN THE SHORT TERM...ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEWPOINT VALUES. TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY SO THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK. OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS ON TRACK IN THE LONGER TERM...AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THIS
WEEKEND.

SEE OUR SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATE FACTS OF LATE.
WE HAVE BEEN IN MASSIVE OUTLIER MODE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 8
MONTHS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT EASY TO DO WHEN CROSSING BETWEEN THE
SUMMER AND WINTER MONTHS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP INCLUDE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SRN NEVADA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND OREGON COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THUS...FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE 12Z MON NAM RUN APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG
WITH THE FORECAST OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
KTTD-KDLS PEAKED AT -1.9 MB AT 16Z...ABOUT ONE MB LOWER THAN THE 12Z
MON GUIDANCE. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED.
TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE GRADIENT PICKING UP JUST A BIT TONIGHT...
CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING JUST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ABE ENOUGH OFFSHORE DRIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FORM NEAR BAYS...SUCH AS KTMK AND KAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A BIT AS SHALLOW
INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE GORGE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY COOL THE COASTAL STRIP A COUPLE
DEGREES FRI. MAX TEMPS FRI FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MANY
INLAND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THU UNDER
DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH LITTLE WIND AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS
MAY ALLOW SHALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG. ANY FOG THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER N-NW
FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT OR
BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF NEWPORT AS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP
THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL OREGON. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT AND FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SWELL
INCREASINGLY COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALL SWELLS AT VARYING
DIRECTION AND PERIOD. PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...IN THE SHORT TERM...ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEWPOINT VALUES. TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY SO THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK. OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS ON TRACK IN THE LONGER TERM...AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THIS
WEEKEND.

SEE OUR SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATE FACTS OF LATE.
WE HAVE BEEN IN MASSIVE OUTLIER MODE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 8
MONTHS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT EASY TO DO WHEN CROSSING BETWEEN THE
SUMMER AND WINTER MONTHS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP INCLUDE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SRN NEVADA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND OREGON COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THUS...FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE 12Z MON NAM RUN APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG
WITH THE FORECAST OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
KTTD-KDLS PEAKED AT -1.9 MB AT 16Z...ABOUT ONE MB LOWER THAN THE 12Z
MON GUIDANCE. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED.
TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE GRADIENT PICKING UP JUST A BIT TONIGHT...
CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING JUST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ABE ENOUGH OFFSHORE DRIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FORM NEAR BAYS...SUCH AS KTMK AND KAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A BIT AS SHALLOW
INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE GORGE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY COOL THE COASTAL STRIP A COUPLE
DEGREES FRI. MAX TEMPS FRI FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MANY
INLAND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THU UNDER
DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH LITTLE WIND AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS
MAY ALLOW SHALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG. ANY FOG THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER N-NW
FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT OR
BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF NEWPORT AS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP
THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL OREGON. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT AND FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SWELL
INCREASINGLY COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALL SWELLS AT VARYING
DIRECTION AND PERIOD. PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 040505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...IN THE SHORT TERM...ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEWPOINT VALUES. TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY SO THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK. OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS ON TRACK IN THE LONGER TERM...AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THIS
WEEKEND.

SEE OUR SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATE FACTS OF LATE.
WE HAVE BEEN IN MASSIVE OUTLIER MODE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 8
MONTHS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT EASY TO DO WHEN CROSSING BETWEEN THE
SUMMER AND WINTER MONTHS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP INCLUDE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SRN NEVADA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND OREGON COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THUS...FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE 12Z MON NAM RUN APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG
WITH THE FORECAST OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
KTTD-KDLS PEAKED AT -1.9 MB AT 16Z...ABOUT ONE MB LOWER THAN THE 12Z
MON GUIDANCE. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED.
TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE GRADIENT PICKING UP JUST A BIT TONIGHT...
CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING JUST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ABE ENOUGH OFFSHORE DRIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FORM NEAR BAYS...SUCH AS KTMK AND KAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A BIT AS SHALLOW
INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE GORGE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY COOL THE COASTAL STRIP A COUPLE
DEGREES FRI. MAX TEMPS FRI FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MANY
INLAND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THU UNDER
DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH LITTLE WIND AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS
MAY ALLOW SHALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG. ANY FOG THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER N-NW
FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT OR
BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF NEWPORT AS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP
THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL OREGON. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT AND FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SWELL
INCREASINGLY COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALL SWELLS AT VARYING
DIRECTION AND PERIOD. PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 040505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...IN THE SHORT TERM...ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEWPOINT VALUES. TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY SO THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK. OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS ON TRACK IN THE LONGER TERM...AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THIS
WEEKEND.

SEE OUR SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATE FACTS OF LATE.
WE HAVE BEEN IN MASSIVE OUTLIER MODE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 8
MONTHS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT EASY TO DO WHEN CROSSING BETWEEN THE
SUMMER AND WINTER MONTHS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP INCLUDE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SRN NEVADA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND OREGON COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THUS...FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE 12Z MON NAM RUN APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG
WITH THE FORECAST OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
KTTD-KDLS PEAKED AT -1.9 MB AT 16Z...ABOUT ONE MB LOWER THAN THE 12Z
MON GUIDANCE. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED.
TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE GRADIENT PICKING UP JUST A BIT TONIGHT...
CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING JUST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ABE ENOUGH OFFSHORE DRIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FORM NEAR BAYS...SUCH AS KTMK AND KAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A BIT AS SHALLOW
INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE GORGE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY COOL THE COASTAL STRIP A COUPLE
DEGREES FRI. MAX TEMPS FRI FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MANY
INLAND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THU UNDER
DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH LITTLE WIND AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS
MAY ALLOW SHALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG. ANY FOG THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER N-NW
FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT OR
BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF NEWPORT AS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP
THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL OREGON. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT AND FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SWELL
INCREASINGLY COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALL SWELLS AT VARYING
DIRECTION AND PERIOD. PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 040505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...IN THE SHORT TERM...ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEWPOINT VALUES. TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY SO THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK. OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS ON TRACK IN THE LONGER TERM...AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THIS
WEEKEND.

SEE OUR SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATE FACTS OF LATE.
WE HAVE BEEN IN MASSIVE OUTLIER MODE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 8
MONTHS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT EASY TO DO WHEN CROSSING BETWEEN THE
SUMMER AND WINTER MONTHS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP INCLUDE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SRN NEVADA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND OREGON COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THUS...FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE 12Z MON NAM RUN APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG
WITH THE FORECAST OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
KTTD-KDLS PEAKED AT -1.9 MB AT 16Z...ABOUT ONE MB LOWER THAN THE 12Z
MON GUIDANCE. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED.
TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE GRADIENT PICKING UP JUST A BIT TONIGHT...
CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING JUST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ABE ENOUGH OFFSHORE DRIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FORM NEAR BAYS...SUCH AS KTMK AND KAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A BIT AS SHALLOW
INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE GORGE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY COOL THE COASTAL STRIP A COUPLE
DEGREES FRI. MAX TEMPS FRI FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MANY
INLAND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THU UNDER
DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH LITTLE WIND AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS
MAY ALLOW SHALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG. ANY FOG THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER N-NW
FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT OR
BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF NEWPORT AS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP
THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL OREGON. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT AND FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SWELL
INCREASINGLY COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALL SWELLS AT VARYING
DIRECTION AND PERIOD. PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 040505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...IN THE SHORT TERM...ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS AND REMOVED FOG FROM THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEWPOINT VALUES. TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY SO THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK. OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS ON TRACK IN THE LONGER TERM...AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THIS
WEEKEND.

SEE OUR SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATE FACTS OF LATE.
WE HAVE BEEN IN MASSIVE OUTLIER MODE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 8
MONTHS...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT EASY TO DO WHEN CROSSING BETWEEN THE
SUMMER AND WINTER MONTHS. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP INCLUDE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SRN NEVADA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND OREGON COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THUS...FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE 12Z MON NAM RUN APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG
WITH THE FORECAST OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
KTTD-KDLS PEAKED AT -1.9 MB AT 16Z...ABOUT ONE MB LOWER THAN THE 12Z
MON GUIDANCE. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED.
TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE GRADIENT PICKING UP JUST A BIT TONIGHT...
CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING JUST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ABE ENOUGH OFFSHORE DRIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FORM NEAR BAYS...SUCH AS KTMK AND KAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A BIT AS SHALLOW
INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE GORGE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY COOL THE COASTAL STRIP A COUPLE
DEGREES FRI. MAX TEMPS FRI FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MANY
INLAND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THU UNDER
DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH LITTLE WIND AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS
MAY ALLOW SHALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG. ANY FOG THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER N-NW
FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT OR
BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF NEWPORT AS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP
THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL OREGON. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT AND FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SWELL
INCREASINGLY COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALL SWELLS AT VARYING
DIRECTION AND PERIOD. PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 040454
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
850 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE
AREA THURSDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH. REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
WILL RETURN FINE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE CHILLY LOW TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE WATER. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 135W
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND TILT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBOUND INSIDE OF 130W
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO ALBERTA AN MONTANA. IN
WHAT HAS BECOME A FAIRLY FAMILIAR PATTERN AS OF LATE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
SUPPORTING MILD OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND 40 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SLIDES INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM BRUSHES THE
AREA...WITH A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THE SOUTH SOUND MAY SEE
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...LIGHT N/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 5 KT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE
COAST WILL GIVE LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT.
WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 040454
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
850 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE
AREA THURSDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH. REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
WILL RETURN FINE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE CHILLY LOW TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE WATER. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 135W
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND TILT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBOUND INSIDE OF 130W
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO ALBERTA AN MONTANA. IN
WHAT HAS BECOME A FAIRLY FAMILIAR PATTERN AS OF LATE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
SUPPORTING MILD OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND 40 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SLIDES INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM BRUSHES THE
AREA...WITH A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THE SOUTH SOUND MAY SEE
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...LIGHT N/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 5 KT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE
COAST WILL GIVE LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT.
WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 040454
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
850 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE
AREA THURSDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH. REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
WILL RETURN FINE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE CHILLY LOW TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE WATER. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 135W
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND TILT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBOUND INSIDE OF 130W
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO ALBERTA AN MONTANA. IN
WHAT HAS BECOME A FAIRLY FAMILIAR PATTERN AS OF LATE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
SUPPORTING MILD OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND 40 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SLIDES INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM BRUSHES THE
AREA...WITH A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THE SOUTH SOUND MAY SEE
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...LIGHT N/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 5 KT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE
COAST WILL GIVE LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT.
WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 040454
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
850 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE
AREA THURSDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH. REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
WILL RETURN FINE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE CHILLY LOW TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE WATER. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 135W
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND TILT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBOUND INSIDE OF 130W
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO ALBERTA AN MONTANA. IN
WHAT HAS BECOME A FAIRLY FAMILIAR PATTERN AS OF LATE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
SUPPORTING MILD OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND 40 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SLIDES INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM BRUSHES THE
AREA...WITH A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THE SOUTH SOUND MAY SEE
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...LIGHT N/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 5 KT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE
COAST WILL GIVE LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT.
WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KOTX 032216
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday: Dry and mostly clear conditions dominate
the weather and, after one more cold night, temperatures begin to
warm. Through Wednesday night a ridge of high pressure flops into
the region, littered with some weak mid-level disturbances. Those
disturbances will bring the occasional middle to high clouds but
otherwise dry conditions. The ridge is dampened slightly by
Thursday as a shortwave pushes into British Columbia and a broader
area of high clouds pushes in. Much of the snow that fell Monday
has melted off, but the lack of cloud cover and lighter winds
should still allow for some rather chilly lows Wednesday morning.
Values are expected to be some 10-15 degrees below normal.
Regional temperatures then begin to moderate under the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday, with highs slightly above normal again by
Thursday. There is some potential for patchy fog in some of the
sheltered mountain valleys, especially up toward Stevens and Pend
Oreille and perhaps Boundary county over the next few nights, with
moisture from melting snow allowing for some potential saturation
under bottoming out temperatures. Confidence is low, so it was
left out of the forecast but it will be monitored. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will
dominate over the region. Some mid to high level clouds are
expected to top over the ridge at times and we may even see a
small chance for a shower over the northern mountains. Otherwise,
the region will remain dry and temperatures will experience a
warming trend. Temperatures are expected to be 10-15 degrees
above normal by early next week. This would translate into our
first 60 degree day of the year for many locations. Models
indicate that the ridge will begin to break down after Tuesday of
next week. This is expected to be the best chance for precip in
the foreseeable future. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure will build in, with a drier
northerly flow. Minor upper impulses riding in that flow will
produce only a few middle and high clouds over the next 24 hours:
a VFR regime. The lower levels remain dry and winds are expected
to remain at generally at 10kts or less. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  43  22  48  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  15  44  22  49  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        17  44  23  51  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       21  48  26  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       14  45  19  50  25  55 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      15  41  20  45  25  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        15  40  22  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     18  49  23  53  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      24  50  28  54  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           16  48  21  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 032216
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday: Dry and mostly clear conditions dominate
the weather and, after one more cold night, temperatures begin to
warm. Through Wednesday night a ridge of high pressure flops into
the region, littered with some weak mid-level disturbances. Those
disturbances will bring the occasional middle to high clouds but
otherwise dry conditions. The ridge is dampened slightly by
Thursday as a shortwave pushes into British Columbia and a broader
area of high clouds pushes in. Much of the snow that fell Monday
has melted off, but the lack of cloud cover and lighter winds
should still allow for some rather chilly lows Wednesday morning.
Values are expected to be some 10-15 degrees below normal.
Regional temperatures then begin to moderate under the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday, with highs slightly above normal again by
Thursday. There is some potential for patchy fog in some of the
sheltered mountain valleys, especially up toward Stevens and Pend
Oreille and perhaps Boundary county over the next few nights, with
moisture from melting snow allowing for some potential saturation
under bottoming out temperatures. Confidence is low, so it was
left out of the forecast but it will be monitored. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will
dominate over the region. Some mid to high level clouds are
expected to top over the ridge at times and we may even see a
small chance for a shower over the northern mountains. Otherwise,
the region will remain dry and temperatures will experience a
warming trend. Temperatures are expected to be 10-15 degrees
above normal by early next week. This would translate into our
first 60 degree day of the year for many locations. Models
indicate that the ridge will begin to break down after Tuesday of
next week. This is expected to be the best chance for precip in
the foreseeable future. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure will build in, with a drier
northerly flow. Minor upper impulses riding in that flow will
produce only a few middle and high clouds over the next 24 hours:
a VFR regime. The lower levels remain dry and winds are expected
to remain at generally at 10kts or less. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  43  22  48  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  15  44  22  49  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        17  44  23  51  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       21  48  26  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       14  45  19  50  25  55 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      15  41  20  45  25  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        15  40  22  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     18  49  23  53  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      24  50  28  54  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           16  48  21  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 032214
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS BUT NOT
MUCH. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA...MAYBE WE WILL SQUEEZE A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR A SHOWER OR TWO FROM
THAT.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP THE FLOW
ALOFT NLY THRU WED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE
THRU WED MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE LOCALIZED FOG /VSBYS AOB 1SM/ AND
INDEFINITE CIGS AOB 300 FT W OF A LINE FROM KSHN-KOLM-KTDO AFTER
0600 UTC.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO HIGHER PRES BUILDING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 032214
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS BUT NOT
MUCH. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA...MAYBE WE WILL SQUEEZE A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR A SHOWER OR TWO FROM
THAT.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP THE FLOW
ALOFT NLY THRU WED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE
THRU WED MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE LOCALIZED FOG /VSBYS AOB 1SM/ AND
INDEFINITE CIGS AOB 300 FT W OF A LINE FROM KSHN-KOLM-KTDO AFTER
0600 UTC.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO HIGHER PRES BUILDING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 032214
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS BUT NOT
MUCH. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA...MAYBE WE WILL SQUEEZE A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR A SHOWER OR TWO FROM
THAT.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP THE FLOW
ALOFT NLY THRU WED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE
THRU WED MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE LOCALIZED FOG /VSBYS AOB 1SM/ AND
INDEFINITE CIGS AOB 300 FT W OF A LINE FROM KSHN-KOLM-KTDO AFTER
0600 UTC.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO HIGHER PRES BUILDING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 032214
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS BUT NOT
MUCH. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA...MAYBE WE WILL SQUEEZE A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR A SHOWER OR TWO FROM
THAT.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP THE FLOW
ALOFT NLY THRU WED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE
THRU WED MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE LOCALIZED FOG /VSBYS AOB 1SM/ AND
INDEFINITE CIGS AOB 300 FT W OF A LINE FROM KSHN-KOLM-KTDO AFTER
0600 UTC.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO HIGHER PRES BUILDING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 032214
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS BUT NOT
MUCH. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA...MAYBE WE WILL SQUEEZE A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR A SHOWER OR TWO FROM
THAT.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP THE FLOW
ALOFT NLY THRU WED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE
THRU WED MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE LOCALIZED FOG /VSBYS AOB 1SM/ AND
INDEFINITE CIGS AOB 300 FT W OF A LINE FROM KSHN-KOLM-KTDO AFTER
0600 UTC.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO HIGHER PRES BUILDING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 032214
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS BUT NOT
MUCH. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA...MAYBE WE WILL SQUEEZE A LITTLE DRIZZLE OR A SHOWER OR TWO FROM
THAT.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP THE FLOW
ALOFT NLY THRU WED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE
THRU WED MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE LOCALIZED FOG /VSBYS AOB 1SM/ AND
INDEFINITE CIGS AOB 300 FT W OF A LINE FROM KSHN-KOLM-KTDO AFTER
0600 UTC.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO HIGHER PRES BUILDING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KPQR 032144
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
143 PM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP INCLUDE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SRN NEVADA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND OREGON COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THUS...FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE 12Z MON NAM RUN APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG
WITH THE FORECAST OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
KTTD-KDLS PEAKED AT -1.9 MB AT 16Z...ABOUT ONE MB LOWER THAN THE 12Z
MON GUIDANCE. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED.
TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE GRADIENT PICKING UP JUST A BIT TONIGHT...
CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING JUST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ABE ENOUGH OFFSHORE DRIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FORM NEAR BAYS...SUCH AS KTMK AND KAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A BIT AS SHALLOW
INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE GORGE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY COOL THE COASTAL STRIP A COUPLE
DEGREES FRI. MAX TEMPS FRI FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MANY
INLAND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER DRY AND STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO EASE AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHALLOW PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ARE AROUND KKLS AND THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
INCLUDING KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER N-NW
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE  FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH MAY BUILD UP THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN OR
CENTRAL OREGON. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS
REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT AND FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 5
FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SWELL INCREASINGLY COMPRISED OF
NUMEROUS SMALL SWELLS AT VARYING DIRECTION AND PERIOD. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 032144
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
143 PM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP INCLUDE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SRN NEVADA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND OREGON COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THUS...FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE 12Z MON NAM RUN APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG
WITH THE FORECAST OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
KTTD-KDLS PEAKED AT -1.9 MB AT 16Z...ABOUT ONE MB LOWER THAN THE 12Z
MON GUIDANCE. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED.
TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE GRADIENT PICKING UP JUST A BIT TONIGHT...
CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING JUST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ABE ENOUGH OFFSHORE DRIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FORM NEAR BAYS...SUCH AS KTMK AND KAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A BIT AS SHALLOW
INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE GORGE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY COOL THE COASTAL STRIP A COUPLE
DEGREES FRI. MAX TEMPS FRI FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MANY
INLAND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER DRY AND STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO EASE AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHALLOW PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ARE AROUND KKLS AND THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
INCLUDING KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER N-NW
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE  FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH MAY BUILD UP THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN OR
CENTRAL OREGON. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS
REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT AND FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 5
FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SWELL INCREASINGLY COMPRISED OF
NUMEROUS SMALL SWELLS AT VARYING DIRECTION AND PERIOD. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 032144
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
143 PM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP INCLUDE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SRN NEVADA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND OREGON COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THUS...FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE 12Z MON NAM RUN APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG
WITH THE FORECAST OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
KTTD-KDLS PEAKED AT -1.9 MB AT 16Z...ABOUT ONE MB LOWER THAN THE 12Z
MON GUIDANCE. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED.
TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE GRADIENT PICKING UP JUST A BIT TONIGHT...
CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING JUST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ABE ENOUGH OFFSHORE DRIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FORM NEAR BAYS...SUCH AS KTMK AND KAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A BIT AS SHALLOW
INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE GORGE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY COOL THE COASTAL STRIP A COUPLE
DEGREES FRI. MAX TEMPS FRI FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MANY
INLAND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER DRY AND STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO EASE AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHALLOW PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ARE AROUND KKLS AND THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
INCLUDING KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER N-NW
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE  FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH MAY BUILD UP THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN OR
CENTRAL OREGON. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS
REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT AND FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 5
FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SWELL INCREASINGLY COMPRISED OF
NUMEROUS SMALL SWELLS AT VARYING DIRECTION AND PERIOD. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 032144
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
143 PM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP INCLUDE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SRN NEVADA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND OREGON COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THUS...FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS FOR TODAY FORECAST TO BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE 12Z MON NAM RUN APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG
WITH THE FORECAST OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE
KTTD-KDLS PEAKED AT -1.9 MB AT 16Z...ABOUT ONE MB LOWER THAN THE 12Z
MON GUIDANCE. THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED.
TODAYS 12Z RUN SHOWS THE GRADIENT PICKING UP JUST A BIT TONIGHT...
CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING JUST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ABE ENOUGH OFFSHORE DRIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FORM NEAR BAYS...SUCH AS KTMK AND KAST. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A BIT AS SHALLOW
INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE GORGE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY COOL THE COASTAL STRIP A COUPLE
DEGREES FRI. MAX TEMPS FRI FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S AT MANY
INLAND LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED NEAR 130W LATE THIS WEEK TO THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NOT MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF OR ELSE WE COULD HAVE EASILY HIT THE
MAGICAL 70 DEGREE MARK IF WE HAD OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH SWING SOUTH FROM ALASKA AND DRAG A CUTOFF LOW OUT TOWARD 150W
TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. HAVE DELAYED ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
THE FILLING UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN WELL
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL FULLY COME TO
FRUITION AS THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS TIME AND AGAIN
THIS WINTER AT THAT TIME RANGE. THIS ONE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT,
HOWEVER, AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGH WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE TIMING OF THE ALASKA TROUGH. IF IT`S MUCH
FASTER OR SLOWER AT SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH THEN THE TIMING WILL
BE OFF AND IT MAY NOT GATHER THE CUTOFF LOW AND LEAVE IT WELL
OFFSHORE. /JBONK
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER DRY AND STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO EASE AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHALLOW PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ARE AROUND KKLS AND THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
INCLUDING KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER N-NW
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE  FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH MAY BUILD UP THE COAST INTO SOUTHERN OR
CENTRAL OREGON. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS
REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT AND FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 5
FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SWELL INCREASINGLY COMPRISED OF
NUMEROUS SMALL SWELLS AT VARYING DIRECTION AND PERIOD. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031811
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1011 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Morning update: quieter weather today with the region in a drier
northerly flow. A few clouds linger about the northeast WA and
north ID mountains, closer to the Canadian border, and a few are
found about the Camas Prairie and nearby. Otherwise the day is
mostly clear.

Minor changes to adjust cloud cover, to show it migrating eastward
across the northern Panhandle. I also removed the threat of
isolated snow showers across the northeast mountains or, more
correctly, just changed it to a mention of flurries near the
higher terrain. Nothing big at all.

Temperatures look okay for now, but will have to continue to
monitor to see if it warms a bit more than forecast. Either way, I
don`t think that is adjustments are needed, it would be no more
than two or three degrees. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A drier northerly flow, with minor upper impulses riding
in it over a building ridge, will produce only a few middle and
high clouds over the next 24 hours: a VFR regime. The lower
levels remain dry and winds are expected to remain at generally at
10kts or less. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  17  43  23  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  15  44  22  49  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        37  18  44  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       40  20  48  27  54  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  16  45  22  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      34  13  41  21  45  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        32  14  40  23  46  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     44  21  49  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      45  24  50  31  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  20  48  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031811
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1011 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Morning update: quieter weather today with the region in a drier
northerly flow. A few clouds linger about the northeast WA and
north ID mountains, closer to the Canadian border, and a few are
found about the Camas Prairie and nearby. Otherwise the day is
mostly clear.

Minor changes to adjust cloud cover, to show it migrating eastward
across the northern Panhandle. I also removed the threat of
isolated snow showers across the northeast mountains or, more
correctly, just changed it to a mention of flurries near the
higher terrain. Nothing big at all.

Temperatures look okay for now, but will have to continue to
monitor to see if it warms a bit more than forecast. Either way, I
don`t think that is adjustments are needed, it would be no more
than two or three degrees. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A drier northerly flow, with minor upper impulses riding
in it over a building ridge, will produce only a few middle and
high clouds over the next 24 hours: a VFR regime. The lower
levels remain dry and winds are expected to remain at generally at
10kts or less. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  17  43  23  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  15  44  22  49  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        37  18  44  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       40  20  48  27  54  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  16  45  22  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      34  13  41  21  45  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        32  14  40  23  46  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     44  21  49  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      45  24  50  31  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  20  48  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 031649
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
BUT OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY OVER WA BUT DOES HAVE SOME RAIN ABOUT HALFWAY
DOWN VANCOUVER ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONTD NLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE.

MEANWHILE...THERE WAS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN THE
4-6SM RANGE THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 1800
UTC. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER SFC PRES GRADIENT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO
HIGHER PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 031649
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
BUT OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY OVER WA BUT DOES HAVE SOME RAIN ABOUT HALFWAY
DOWN VANCOUVER ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONTD NLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE.

MEANWHILE...THERE WAS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN THE
4-6SM RANGE THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 1800
UTC. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER SFC PRES GRADIENT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO
HIGHER PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 031649
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
BUT OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY OVER WA BUT DOES HAVE SOME RAIN ABOUT HALFWAY
DOWN VANCOUVER ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONTD NLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE.

MEANWHILE...THERE WAS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN THE
4-6SM RANGE THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 1800
UTC. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER SFC PRES GRADIENT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO
HIGHER PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 031649
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
BUT OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY OVER WA BUT DOES HAVE SOME RAIN ABOUT HALFWAY
DOWN VANCOUVER ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONTD NLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE.

MEANWHILE...THERE WAS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN THE
4-6SM RANGE THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 1800
UTC. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER SFC PRES GRADIENT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO
HIGHER PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 031649
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE CIRRUS WILL INCREASE
BUT OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROSTY AGAIN. THERE IS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIF WHICH EXTENDS
SOMEWHAT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WA COASTAL WATERS...THIS IS
GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. OVER WESTERN WA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF WRN
WA. THE 12Z GFS IS DRY OVER WA BUT DOES HAVE SOME RAIN ABOUT HALFWAY
DOWN VANCOUVER ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40. IT
LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. CONTD NLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE.

MEANWHILE...THERE WAS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN THE
4-6SM RANGE THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 1800
UTC. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WED MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKER SFC PRES GRADIENT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER PRES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE ON WED DUE TO
HIGHER PRES BUILDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON THU.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KPQR 031634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 AM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...A
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE WA AND
OREGON COAST. VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH MANY AREAS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE SUN TODAY...MODEL 850 MB TEMPS WARM EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TODAY SO VALUES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE LOOK GOOD. THE
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS AT -2 MB AS OF 16Z...NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
EAST WIND AT KTTD JUST YET. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD JUST SEE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AT BEST IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A
BIT AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. OTHER
THAN THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM WED AND THU. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE AN INCREASE OF COASTAL CLOUDS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN. THE LATEST GFS
HAS GONE DRY FOR MON...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF.  THE GEFS AND
NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND NEXT THU. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY
WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FEW POCKETS OF LOCAL FOG CONTINUE
FOR A BRIEF TIME...BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z. LOCATIONS THAT
SAW FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING MAY SEE A REPEAT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND KKLS AND ALSO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER DRY STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
WORK UP THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER
THE WATERS...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...AND WILL
HOLD AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 AM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...A
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE WA AND
OREGON COAST. VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH MANY AREAS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE SUN TODAY...MODEL 850 MB TEMPS WARM EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TODAY SO VALUES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE LOOK GOOD. THE
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS AT -2 MB AS OF 16Z...NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
EAST WIND AT KTTD JUST YET. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD JUST SEE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AT BEST IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A
BIT AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. OTHER
THAN THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM WED AND THU. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE AN INCREASE OF COASTAL CLOUDS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN. THE LATEST GFS
HAS GONE DRY FOR MON...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF.  THE GEFS AND
NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND NEXT THU. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY
WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FEW POCKETS OF LOCAL FOG CONTINUE
FOR A BRIEF TIME...BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z. LOCATIONS THAT
SAW FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING MAY SEE A REPEAT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND KKLS AND ALSO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER DRY STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
WORK UP THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER
THE WATERS...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...AND WILL
HOLD AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 AM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...A
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE WA AND
OREGON COAST. VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH MANY AREAS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE SUN TODAY...MODEL 850 MB TEMPS WARM EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TODAY SO VALUES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE LOOK GOOD. THE
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS AT -2 MB AS OF 16Z...NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
EAST WIND AT KTTD JUST YET. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD JUST SEE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AT BEST IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A
BIT AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. OTHER
THAN THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM WED AND THU. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE AN INCREASE OF COASTAL CLOUDS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN. THE LATEST GFS
HAS GONE DRY FOR MON...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF.  THE GEFS AND
NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND NEXT THU. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY
WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FEW POCKETS OF LOCAL FOG CONTINUE
FOR A BRIEF TIME...BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z. LOCATIONS THAT
SAW FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING MAY SEE A REPEAT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND KKLS AND ALSO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER DRY STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
WORK UP THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER
THE WATERS...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...AND WILL
HOLD AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 AM PST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED JUST INSIDE 140W...A
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE WA AND
OREGON COAST. VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH MANY AREAS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE SUN TODAY...MODEL 850 MB TEMPS WARM EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TODAY SO VALUES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE LOOK GOOD. THE
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS AT -2 MB AS OF 16Z...NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
EAST WIND AT KTTD JUST YET. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD JUST SEE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AT BEST IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL WARM JUST A
BIT AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS DEVELOP.

NAM SHOWS ANOTHER VERLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACORSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS. OTHER
THAN THAT...850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM WED AND THU. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
WASHINGTON. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER. NAM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE AN INCREASE OF COASTAL CLOUDS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN. THE LATEST GFS
HAS GONE DRY FOR MON...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF.  THE GEFS AND
NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND NEXT THU. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY
WITH VARIABLE THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FEW POCKETS OF LOCAL FOG CONTINUE
FOR A BRIEF TIME...BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z. LOCATIONS THAT
SAW FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING MAY SEE A REPEAT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND KKLS AND ALSO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING KEUG.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER DRY STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
WORK UP THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER
THE WATERS...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...AND WILL
HOLD AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.

For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin

Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.

Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  17  43  23  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  15  44  22  49  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        37  18  44  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       40  20  48  27  54  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  16  45  22  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      34  13  41  21  45  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        32  14  40  23  46  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     44  21  49  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      45  24  50  31  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  20  48  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.

For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin

Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.

Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  17  43  23  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  15  44  22  49  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        37  18  44  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       40  20  48  27  54  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  16  45  22  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      34  13  41  21  45  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        32  14  40  23  46  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     44  21  49  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      45  24  50  31  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  20  48  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.

For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin

Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.

Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  17  43  23  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  15  44  22  49  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        37  18  44  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       40  20  48  27  54  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  16  45  22  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      34  13  41  21  45  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        32  14  40  23  46  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     44  21  49  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      45  24  50  31  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  20  48  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.

For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin

Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.

Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  17  43  23  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  15  44  22  49  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        37  18  44  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       40  20  48  27  54  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  16  45  22  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      34  13  41  21  45  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        32  14  40  23  46  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     44  21  49  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      45  24  50  31  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  20  48  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.

For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin

Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.

Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  17  43  23  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  15  44  22  49  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        37  18  44  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       40  20  48  27  54  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  16  45  22  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      34  13  41  21  45  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        32  14  40  23  46  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     44  21  49  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      45  24  50  31  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  20  48  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
339 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will exit the region today, diminishing the
threat of snow showers and gusty winds. Much colder air will move
in behind this system, with temperatures well below average for
the middle of the week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
for this morning...High pressure is building in the eastern
Pacific while a low pressure system digs into Idaho and Montana.
This puts the inland northwest in a dry northerly flow. Some
remnants of the vigorous short wave from last evening as well as
up-sloping flow will keep some low end chance for snow showers
across the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie early this
morning. Another weak wave is also dropping through BC this
morning. This wave is almost non-existent on models but can be
seen on water vapor imagery. Not much in the way of moisture with
this feature, but enough to hold onto some low end pops for the
northeast mountains early this morning. The northerly surface
pressure gradient is slowly decreasing. There are still some gusty
winds spilling out of the Okanogan valley into the Waterville
Plateau and the basin, but these are expected to subside through
the morning hours.

For this afternoon through Wednesday night...The ridge of high
pressure will ease into the Pacific Northwest tonight and
Wednesday...then flatten late Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another Pacific short wave over tops the ridge. Dry conditions are
expected from this afternoon through Wednesday night. 850
temperatures will bottom out this morning and this afternoon, then
rebound tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
below normal through Wednesday morning, before rebounding
Wednesday afternoon to near normal. Expect morning lows ranging
from the lower teens to lower 20s both mornings. Highs will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s today, then mid 40s to lower 50s on
Wednesday. Winds will be variable and under 10 mph. Tobin

Thursday through Friday night...It looks like the 00Z run of the
ECMWF blinked. Up until this point the EC had been holding firm
onto the trough solution that would bring some precipitation to
the region while the GFS was consistently keeping most precip to
our northeast. Now the EC has trended toward the drier GFS
solution. For now we will keep some low end PoPs in the Idaho
panhandle since the GFS shows a shortwave impulse clipping the
northern panhandle Friday night. Snow levels will be around
3500-4500 ft so the passes could see some light accumulations. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry for the end of
the work week. Cold northerly flow will transition to a more
northwest trajectory so temperatures will start to trend closer to
seasonal normals. By Friday night, some of the southern valleys
could remain above freezing overnight.

Saturday through Monday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region, fostering dry conditions with temperatures on a
warming trend. We may see some springlike temperatures for the
weekend. Some moisture will ride along the ridge so there is a low
possibility of some showers but the more likely scenario will be
an increase in mid and high clouds for the end of the weekend and
into the start of next week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few snow showers may hang around the Camas Prairie
through 14z...but these should be on the decrease. High pressure
will strengthen off the coast and put the region in a cool but
stable and dry north-northwest flow. Expect mainly sunny days and
cool clear night with VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Winds will
be northerly and under 10kts. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  17  43  23  48  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  15  44  22  49  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        37  18  44  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       40  20  48  27  54  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  16  45  22  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      34  13  41  21  45  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        32  14  40  23  46  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     44  21  49  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      45  24  50  31  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  20  48  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 031054
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE SMALL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS ESTABLISHED ALONG 140W.
COLD AIR WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWARD AND IS STAYING NICELY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
LIKE IT HAS MOST OF THIS WINTER.

A 1035 MB RIDGE IS OVER EAST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH IS GIVING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN
MODELS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO. THE END RESULT IS COOL TO COLD
NIGHTS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THE DOMINANT RIDGE...BUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM A FORKS-OAK HARBOR-STEVENS PASS LINE NORTHWARD.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS
TIME AROUND 130W...STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS...A MILD AIR
MASS...AND ABUNDANT MARCH SUNSHINE...WILL RESULT IN MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.
IT LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. 33

KSEA...N SURFACE WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN CANADA IS GIVING N/NE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST
      STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 031054
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE SMALL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS ESTABLISHED ALONG 140W.
COLD AIR WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWARD AND IS STAYING NICELY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
LIKE IT HAS MOST OF THIS WINTER.

A 1035 MB RIDGE IS OVER EAST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH IS GIVING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN
MODELS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO. THE END RESULT IS COOL TO COLD
NIGHTS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THE DOMINANT RIDGE...BUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM A FORKS-OAK HARBOR-STEVENS PASS LINE NORTHWARD.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS
TIME AROUND 130W...STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS...A MILD AIR
MASS...AND ABUNDANT MARCH SUNSHINE...WILL RESULT IN MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.
IT LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. 33

KSEA...N SURFACE WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN CANADA IS GIVING N/NE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST
      STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 031054
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE SMALL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS ESTABLISHED ALONG 140W.
COLD AIR WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWARD AND IS STAYING NICELY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
LIKE IT HAS MOST OF THIS WINTER.

A 1035 MB RIDGE IS OVER EAST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH IS GIVING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN
MODELS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO. THE END RESULT IS COOL TO COLD
NIGHTS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THE DOMINANT RIDGE...BUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM A FORKS-OAK HARBOR-STEVENS PASS LINE NORTHWARD.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS
TIME AROUND 130W...STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS...A MILD AIR
MASS...AND ABUNDANT MARCH SUNSHINE...WILL RESULT IN MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.
IT LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. 33

KSEA...N SURFACE WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN CANADA IS GIVING N/NE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST
      STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 031054
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GIVE DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE SMALL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS ESTABLISHED ALONG 140W.
COLD AIR WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWARD AND IS STAYING NICELY EAST OF THE ROCKIES
LIKE IT HAS MOST OF THIS WINTER.

A 1035 MB RIDGE IS OVER EAST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH IS GIVING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA...BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN
MODELS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO. THE END RESULT IS COOL TO COLD
NIGHTS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.

A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THE DOMINANT RIDGE...BUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM A FORKS-OAK HARBOR-STEVENS PASS LINE NORTHWARD.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS
TIME AROUND 130W...STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS...A MILD AIR
MASS...AND ABUNDANT MARCH SUNSHINE...WILL RESULT IN MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.
IT LOOKS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY.
THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. 33

KSEA...N SURFACE WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN CANADA IS GIVING N/NE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...CENTRAL AND WEST
      STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

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