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000
FXUS66 KOTX 181829
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1128 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a brief break in the Pacific storm train. A weaker
front will bring mainly windy conditions Saturday afternoon and
night with some showers across the north. Easter Sunday should be
mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday, temperatures
will cool for the remainder of the week as another Pacific storm
moves into the area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: One last cluster of showers will push through
northeastern WA and the Nrn ID Panhandle then the atmosphere will
quickly stabilize promoting dry conditions region-wide. The
activity near Bonners Ferry earlier this morning was by far much
more intense and deeper in comparison the current showers
developing between Colville and Metaline Falls which are only
showing tops around 12K ft. Expect this activity to track to the
SE between now and 2PM. Ahead of this wave, scattered orographic
showers are developing between Coeur D Alene and Prichard but as
the winds increase and the boundary layer continues to mix/dry
out, I anticipate this activity to wane early afternoon as well.

We have adjusted temperatures down a bit for NE WA and Nrn ID to
account for the cloud cover and trends from current obs.
Otherwise, only small cosmetic changes were made to the remainder
of the forecast. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be
gusty winds impacting the terminals. Gusts between 25-28kts will
be possible through 02z at most locations. Winds will begin
weakening this afternoon and decrease near to below 10kts arnd
03z. Easterly winds will re-strengthen at KPUW aft 12z and remain
elevated through 18z. Another frontal system will approach the
region Saturday morning and track through during the afternoon
hours. A few sprinkles will be possible most terminals will
generally experience passing mid and high level clouds. Winds will
once again become gusty with the cold front passage aft 18z./sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  33  64  36  58  40 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  31  63  37  57  39 /  10  10  10  30  10  10
Pullman        53  33  66  35  57  41 /   0   0  10  20   0   0
Lewiston       61  37  72  41  64  45 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       60  31  67  33  64  36 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      52  29  62  36  57  36 /  30  10  10  30  10  10
Kellogg        51  31  63  36  56  37 /  20  10  10  30  10  10
Moses Lake     64  31  69  38  66  43 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      62  39  65  42  66  47 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Omak           62  30  66  35  65  40 /   0   0  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 181827
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1127 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a brief break in the Pacific storm train. A weaker
front will bring mainly windy conditions Saturday afternoon and
night with some showers across the north. Easter Sunday should be
mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday, temperatures
will cool for the remainder of the week as another Pacific storm
moves into the area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: One last cluster of showers will push through
northeastern WA and the Nrn ID Panhandle then the atmosphere will
quickly stabilize promoting dry conditions region-wide. The
activity near Bonners Ferry earlier this morning was by far much
more intense and deeper in comparison the current showers
developing between Colville and Metaline Falls which are only
showing tops around 12K ft. Expect this activity to track to the
SE between now and 2PM. Ahead of this wave, scattered orographic
showers are developing between Coeur D Alene and Prichard but as
the winds increase and the boundary layer continues to mix/dry
out, I anticipate this activity to wane early afternoon as well.

We have adjusted temperatures down a bit for NE WA and Nrn ID to
account for the cloud cover and trends from current obs.
Otherwise, only small cosmetic changes were made to the remainder
of the forecast. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be
gusty winds impacting the terminals. Gusts between 25-28kts will
be possible through 02z at most locations. Winds will begin
weakening this afternoon and decrease near to below 10kts arnd
03z. Easterly winds will re-strengthen at KPUW aft 12z and remain
elevated through 18z. Another frontal system will approach the
region Saturday morning and track through during the afternoon
hours. A few sprinkles will be possible most terminals will
generally experience passing mid and high level clouds. Winds will
once again become gusty with the cold front passage aft 18z./sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  33  64  36  58  40 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  31  63  37  57  39 /  10  10  10  30  10  10
Pullman        53  33  66  35  57  41 /   0   0  10  20   0   0
Lewiston       61  37  72  41  64  45 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       60  31  67  33  64  36 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      52  29  62  36  57  36 /  30  10  10  30  10  10
Kellogg        51  31  63  36  56  37 /  20  10  10  30  10  10
Moses Lake     64  31  69  38  66  43 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      62  39  65  42  66  47 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Omak           62  30  66  35  65  40 /   0   0  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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000
FXUS66 KSEW 181611
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
COAST...WILL COME TO AN END MIDDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY GIVING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL STALL AS IT
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND LAST NIGHT IS NOW WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COAST. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS GIVING SOME SHOWERS FROM ABOUT STEVENS
PASS WESTWARD INTO NORTH KING AND SOUTH SNOHOMISH COUNTY EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE
GRADUALLY RELAXING THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
DRY AND IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SITS FROM ABOUT 50N 140W SOUTHWESTWARD TO
35N 160W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR 48N 148W.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN INTO THE CASCADES BY ABOUT NOON. LONG
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THIS FRONT HAVING ENTRAINED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH MODEL
FORECASTS OF BRIEF MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM 18Z SAT
THROUGH 12Z SUN COULD REACH 0.75 TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES AROUND THE
LANDSLIDE EAST OF ARLINGTON. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE GFS
SHOWS LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO BELOW 0C WHILE MOS TSTM CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES RISE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT WILL ADJUST
POPS AND QPF FOR SATURDAY BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE FULL SUITE OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN BEFORE ADDING A CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE FORECAST
SAT AFTN AND EVENING.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKEN AS
PIVOTS AND BECOMES NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED OFFSHORE. MODELS KEEPS THE
INTERIOR MAINLY DRY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS..

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE PAC WILL START TO SHIFT INLAND LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED FOR INCREASED POPS AND QPF IN THE INTERIOR
ON SATURDAY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON TUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES
THE PAC NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA
OVER THIS PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE MAY BRING DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SLATED TO ARRIVE WED
NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR IN
THE MODELS. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COOL/SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON CRESTED AT 7.4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW FALLING. THE RIVER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE FALLING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE RIVER TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVER WILL BEGIN FALLING AGAIN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE TO FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND INLAND THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT
IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OVER THE CASCADES.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. SOME CIGS RANGING 2000 TO 4000 FEET
WILL LINGER NEAR WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS THROUGH 16-18Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE COAST WILL WORK TO LIFT
CIGS SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY
MORNING.

KSEA...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHWEST WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING LIGHT MIDDAY. WINDS GOING NORTHWESTERLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. FELTON/SMR

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF THE
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ON SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ARRIVE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SWELLS IN THE 16 TO 19 FOOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS A RAZOR CLAM
DIG WEEKEND FOR TWIN HARBORS...COPALIS AND MOCLIPS BEACHES.
FELTON/SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
      STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT THROUGH
      NOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO
      THE STRAIT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH NOON

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








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000
FXUS66 KPQR 181601
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
859 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS A BIT SUNDAY. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AS USUAL WHENEVER WE GET RAIN AND THEN CLEAR OUT
AND GET SOME WEAK SURFACE WINDS...WE GET SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WHICH HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE WILLAMETTE IN THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL VALLEY...AND ALONG MANY OTHER RIVER VALLEYS.  WEAK SURFACE
FLOW WILL CAUSE THE FOG AND STRATUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT MID
APRIL SUN WILL CONTINUE ITS WORK TO ERODE FOG AND VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD PLEASANT WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICKER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDES THROUGH IN NW FLOW AND EVEN
PRODUCES A SHOWER OR TWO. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES AS OF 09Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBVIOUS DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT GRADUALLY MODERATES...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEED TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH 10-15 KT WLY 850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND NW ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF MT.
HOOD AT 18Z.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
500 MB RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE DAMPENS OUT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EVEN SHORTER LIVED THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS FOR THE SAT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SHIFT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE COAST
IN THE 12Z-15Z SAT TIME FRAME AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN
MAY EVEN PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS
SHOW. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A MT. JEFFERSON TO KONP LINE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT. ANY LEFT-OVER PRECIP 12Z SUN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SW WA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICER AS A TRANSITORY 500 MB
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT...WENT DRY SUN NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE S WA COAST. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO 40N 133W WILL PIVOT INTO A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTATION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS MAY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS FORCED INLAND MON
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE SE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON FOR THE
CASCADES WITH INCREASING S-SWLY FLOW...POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WED AND THU FOR
DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME PATCHES OF FOG ON THE COAST AND INLAND FROM KCVO TO KEUG THAT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 17Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. RAIN BEGINNING ON THE COAST ABOUT 12Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING AFTER 15Z. INLAND AREAS...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z SAT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH OVER THE
WATERS. THE HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO A FRONT TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS EARLY SAT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUN MORNING.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT EVENING AND SUN.
SEAS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16
SECONDS FROM AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN MORNING BUT REMAIN IN
THE 13 TO 16 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT LATE MON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SWELL
TRAIN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 181601
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
859 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS A BIT SUNDAY. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AS USUAL WHENEVER WE GET RAIN AND THEN CLEAR OUT
AND GET SOME WEAK SURFACE WINDS...WE GET SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WHICH HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE WILLAMETTE IN THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL VALLEY...AND ALONG MANY OTHER RIVER VALLEYS.  WEAK SURFACE
FLOW WILL CAUSE THE FOG AND STRATUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT MID
APRIL SUN WILL CONTINUE ITS WORK TO ERODE FOG AND VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD PLEASANT WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICKER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDES THROUGH IN NW FLOW AND EVEN
PRODUCES A SHOWER OR TWO. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES AS OF 09Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBVIOUS DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT GRADUALLY MODERATES...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEED TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH 10-15 KT WLY 850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND NW ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF MT.
HOOD AT 18Z.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
500 MB RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE DAMPENS OUT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EVEN SHORTER LIVED THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS FOR THE SAT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SHIFT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE COAST
IN THE 12Z-15Z SAT TIME FRAME AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN
MAY EVEN PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS
SHOW. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A MT. JEFFERSON TO KONP LINE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT. ANY LEFT-OVER PRECIP 12Z SUN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SW WA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICER AS A TRANSITORY 500 MB
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT...WENT DRY SUN NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE S WA COAST. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO 40N 133W WILL PIVOT INTO A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTATION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS MAY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS FORCED INLAND MON
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE SE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON FOR THE
CASCADES WITH INCREASING S-SWLY FLOW...POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WED AND THU FOR
DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME PATCHES OF FOG ON THE COAST AND INLAND FROM KCVO TO KEUG THAT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 17Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. RAIN BEGINNING ON THE COAST ABOUT 12Z WITH
MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING AFTER 15Z. INLAND AREAS...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z SAT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH OVER THE
WATERS. THE HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO A FRONT TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS EARLY SAT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUN MORNING.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT EVENING AND SUN.
SEAS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16
SECONDS FROM AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN MORNING BUT REMAIN IN
THE 13 TO 16 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT LATE MON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SWELL
TRAIN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KOTX 181146
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
446 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a brief break in the Pacific storm train. A weaker
front will bring mainly windy conditions Saturday afternoon and
night with some showers across the north. Easter Sunday should be
mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday, temperatures
will cool for the remainder of the week as another Pacific storm
moves into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: The cold front is now just beginning to push
into the ID Panhandle at around 2:30 AM. This is producing some
showers along the front. There is also some showers popping up
behind the front in an increasingly unstable air mass. These
showers, at the moment, are concentrated over the Okanogan
Valley/Highlands and will continue on their eastward progression
through the rest of today. Much of the shower activity associated
with the upper level disturbance will remain across the northern
mtns with the Spokane Area possibly seeing an isolated shower on
the southern fringe through this morning. Much of the forcing is
a bit too far out ahead of the weak instability to see much of a
chance for any thunderstorms this morning. The cold pool aloft
will begin to exit the region this afternoon before we reach our
maximum heating, so I don`t see much of a risk for thunderstorms
today either.

Pressure gradients behind the cold front are tightening
considerably this morning with windy conditions picking up across
the basin. Our strongest winds are still expected through this
morning with generally breezy conditions through the afternoon
hours. Some spots across the Upper Columbia Basin, into the
Spokane Area and down onto the Palouse will see near to Wind
Advisory level winds; however, it will be borderline enough that
I do not anticipate having to issue a highlight. Sustained wind
speeds of up to 25 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph still
looks valid through this morning. These winds will slacken off a
bit in the afternoon as pressure gradients begin to weaken.

Winds will become light overnight with a substantial amount of
drier air filtering into the region. Dew point temps at Wenatchee
and Moses Lake have already plummeted down into the low 30s early
this morning. This dry air will continue to spread across the
region today. Sky conditions will be clearing through the
afternoon with some thin cirrus beginning to enter into the region
tonight. There will be a risk for freezing temps across the Moses
Lake Area and across the lower portions of the Upper Columbia
Basin. These areas are considered to be in their growing season
and a highlight may be needed; however, confidence is not quite
high enough at this time.

Saturday: A weak cold front will enter the region off of the
eastern Pacific. Due to the drier air in place, we will likely
only see increasing high and mid level clouds with this front. I
went ahead and added some sprinkles to the forecast, but
measurable precip is not really expected. Good mixing and
increasing milder air into the region will result in warmer temps
with highs slightly above normal. /SVH

Saturday night through Tuesday: As the cold front moves through
the area late Saturday, gusty winds will develop. These winds
should last through the night and subside on Sunday, just in time
for Easter. The timing for winds is a bit more favorable than the
front currently moving through our area, since the frontal passage
will be in the late afternoon hours and we won`t have a lot of
rain cooled air ahead of it. Gusts to 40 mph still look possible.

Easter Sunday continues to look dry with just a few mountain
showers. There should be some clouds moving through the area, but
by no means a cloudy day.

Then the attention turns to a large-scale Pacific trough system.
The models have been backing off a bit on the timing of this
storm, and Monday now looks like it will be dry and rather warm
with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. We`ll see a drop of
about 15 degrees for Tuesday as the trough pushes onshore and rain
develops over much of the area. Since the models have been
adjusting their timing with this system, I didn`t go whole-hog
with the precip chances at this point. At this point, this front
does not look as wet as the one that moved through our area on
Thursday.  RJ

Tuesday night through Saturday: The large scale trough will be
traversing the region for the middle portion of the work week.
While the trough crossing the region is in agreement with the
extended models, there is some disagreement in how fast it moves
into the northern Plains. The GFS/DGEX would suggest it take a
more meandering approach across Montana, with wrap-around moisture
keeping thick cloud cover and higher precipitation chances over
far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle into Wednesday
night. The ECMWF would suggest the trough continue moving east. With
the previous forecast already having higher pops for the east,
went ahead and gave a nod to the wetter solutions, while not going
too high. This really isn`t much higher, but more of a trend in
that direction. Brief shortwave ridging will give way to yet
another storm system toward the latter part of the work week.

As far as temperatures go, most areas will remain below normal for
this time of year. With the trough bringing in colder air aloft,
snow levels will have to be watched over the Idaho Panhandle. If
the wrap around precipitation does occur, 850 mb temperatures are
going to be near or even below zero for Wednesday and Thursday
mornings. This would bring snow down below pass levels, and even
into some valleys. Still a lot of time to look at this so will
keep a more mountain snow/valley rain for now. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold front is sliding east of the region early this
morning with windy conditions developing behind the front. Expect
strongest winds to continue through the early afternoon hours with
gusts up to between 30-40 mph possible. These winds will gradually
weaken through the late afternoon hours before decoupling in the
evening. Showers will continue to linger into the afternoon,
mainly across the northern mtns and in the ID Panhandle. Considerable
amount of dry air behind the front will keep cigs above 5 kft agl
with VFR conditions prevailing through 12Z Saturday. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  33  64  36  58  40 /  20   0  10  20   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  31  63  37  57  39 /  40  10   0  20  10  10
Pullman        53  33  66  35  57  41 /  10   0   0  10   0  10
Lewiston       60  37  72  41  64  45 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Colville       61  31  67  33  64  36 /  40  10  10  30  10  10
Sandpoint      53  29  62  36  57  36 /  60  20   0  30  10  10
Kellogg        51  31  63  36  56  37 /  60  10   0  30  10  10
Moses Lake     63  31  69  38  66  43 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      61  39  65  42  66  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Omak           62  30  66  35  65  40 /  10   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 181017
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER KING COUNTY WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE DRIER
WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE MAINLY TIED TO THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER KING COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PSCZ SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES INLAND. WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING THEN PUSH
INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA SAT NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKEN AS
PIVOTS AND BECOMES NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED OFFSHORE. MODELS KEEPS THE
INTERIOR MAINLY DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE PAC WILL START TO SHIFT INLAND ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. 33

.LONG TERM...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON TUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THE PAC NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA OVER THIS PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE MAY BRING
DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
SLATED TO ARRIVE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
IS STILL UNCLEAR IN THE MODELS. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
COOL/SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FORMS OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON CRESTED AT 7.4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW FALLING. THE RIVER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE FALLING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE RIVER TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVER WILL BEGIN FALLING AGAIN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE TO FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND INLAND THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH AND
EAST OF KBFI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE CASCADES BY 15Z.

CEILINGS NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR 2000 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING. AWAY FROM THE CONVERGENCE ZONE CEILINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 3500 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE THIS
MORNING WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING THE COAST. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OUT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING TO 3500 TO 5000 FEET DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHWEST WIND 6 TO
10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT MIDDAY. WINDS GOING NORTHWESTERLY 4 TO 8
KNOTS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF THE
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ON SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ARRIVE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SWELLS IN THE 16 TO 19 FOOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS A RAZOR CLAM
DIG WEEKEND FOR TWIN HARBORS...COPALIS AND MOCROCKS BEACHES. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT THIS MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 180946
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a brief break in the Pacific storm train. A weaker
front will bring mainly windy conditions Saturday afternoon and
night with some showers across the north. Easter Sunday should be
mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday, temperatures
will cool for the remainder of the week as another Pacific storm
moves into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: The cold front is now just beginning to push
into the ID Panhandle at around 2:30 AM. This is producing some
showers along the front. There is also some showers popping up
behind the front in an increasingly unstable air mass. These
showers, at the moment, are concentrated over the Okanogan
Valley/Highlands and will continue on their eastward progression
through the rest of today. Much of the shower activity associated
with the upper level disturbance will remain across the northern
mtns with the Spokane Area possibly seeing an isolated shower on
the southern fringe through this morning. Much of the forcing is
a bit too far out ahead of the weak instability to see much of a
chance for any thunderstorms this morning. The cold pool aloft
will begin to exit the region this afternoon before we reach our
maximum heating, so I don`t see much of a risk for thunderstorms
today either.

Pressure gradients behind the cold front are tightening
considerably this morning with windy conditions picking up across
the basin. Our strongest winds are still expected through this
morning with generally breezy conditions through the afternoon
hours. Some spots across the Upper Columbia Basin, into the
Spokane Area and down onto the Palouse will see near to Wind
Advisory level winds; however, it will be borderline enough that
I do not anticipate having to issue a highlight. Sustained wind
speeds of up to 25 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph still
looks valid through this morning. These winds will slacken off a
bit in the afternoon as pressure gradients begin to weaken.

Winds will become light overnight with a substantial amount of
drier air filtering into the region. Dew point temps at Wenatchee
and Moses Lake have already plummeted down into the low 30s early
this morning. This dry air will continue to spread across the
region today. Sky conditions will be clearing through the
afternoon with some thin cirrus beginning to enter into the region
tonight. There will be a risk for freezing temps across the Moses
Lake Area and across the lower portions of the Upper Columbia
Basin. These areas are considered to be in their growing season
and a highlight may be needed; however, confidence is not quite
high enough at this time.

Saturday: A weak cold front will enter the region off of the
eastern Pacific. Due to the drier air in place, we will likely
only see increasing high and mid level clouds with this front. I
went ahead and added some sprinkles to the forecast, but
measurable precip is not really expected. Good mixing and
increasing milder air into the region will result in warmer temps
with highs slightly above normal. /SVH

Saturday night through Tuesday: As the cold front moves through
the area late Saturday, gusty winds will develop. These winds
should last through the night and subside on Sunday, just in time
for Easter. The timing for winds is a bit more favorable than the
front currently moving through our area, since the frontal passage
will be in the late afternoon hours and we won`t have a lot of
rain cooled air ahead of it. Gusts to 40 mph still look possible.

Easter Sunday continues to look dry with just a few mountain
showers. There should be some clouds moving through the area, but
by no means a cloudy day.

Then the attention turns to a large-scale Pacific trough system.
The models have been backing off a bit on the timing of this
storm, and Monday now looks like it will be dry and rather warm
with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. We`ll see a drop of
about 15 degrees for Tuesday as the trough pushes onshore and rain
develops over much of the area. Since the models have been
adjusting their timing with this system, I didn`t go whole-hog
with the precip chances at this point. At this point, this front
does not look as wet as the one that moved through our area on
Thursday.  RJ

Tuesday night through Saturday: The large scale trough will be
traversing the region for the middle portion of the work week.
While the trough crossing the region is in agreement with the
extended models, there is some disagreement in how fast it moves
into the northern Plains. The GFS/DGEX would suggest it take a
more meandering approach across Montana, with wrap-around moisture
keeping thick cloud cover and higher precipitation chances over
far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle into Wednesday
night. The ECMWF would suggest the trough continue moving east. With
the previous forecast already having higher pops for the east,
went ahead and gave a nod to the wetter solutions, while not going
too high. This really isn`t much higher, but more of a trend in
that direction. Brief shortwave ridging will give way to yet
another storm system toward the latter part of the work week.

As far as temperatures go, most areas will remain below normal for
this time of year. With the trough bringing in colder air aloft,
snow levels will have to be watched over the Idaho Panhandle. If
the wrap around precipitation does occur, 850 mb temperatures are
going to be near or even below zero for Wednesday and Thursday
mornings. This would bring snow down below pass levels, and even
into some valleys. Still a lot of time to look at this so will
keep a more mountain snow/valley rain for now. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front and the cold conditionally unstable
airmass behind it will support showers off and on during the
overnight hours with a general decreasing trend going into
tomorrow. The expectation is however that wind will increase
overnight and peak Friday morning with wind gusts as high as 40
mph or so before decrease again in the afternoon. Some of the
clutter rain showers could result in brief IFR ceilings at times.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  33  64  36  58  40 /  20   0  10  20   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  31  63  37  57  39 /  40  10   0  20  10  10
Pullman        53  33  66  35  57  41 /  10   0   0  10   0  10
Lewiston       60  37  72  41  64  45 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Colville       61  31  67  33  64  36 /  40  10  10  30  10  10
Sandpoint      53  29  62  36  57  36 /  60  20   0  30  10  10
Kellogg        51  31  63  36  56  37 /  60  10   0  30  10  10
Moses Lake     63  31  69  38  66  43 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      61  39  65  42  66  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Omak           62  30  66  35  65  40 /  10   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 180914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS A BIT SUNDAY. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES AS OF 09Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBVIOUS DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT GRADUALLY MODERATES...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEED TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH 10-15 KT WLY 850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND NW ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF MT.
HOOD AT 18Z.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
500 MB RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE DAMPENS OUT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EVEN SHORTER LIVED THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS FOR THE SAT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SHIFT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE COAST
IN THE 12Z-15Z SAT TIME FRAME AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN
MAY EVEN PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS
SHOW. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A MT. JEFFERSON TO KONP LINE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT. ANY LEFT-OVER PRECIP 12Z SUN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SW WA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICER AS A TRANSITORY 500 MB
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT...WENT DRY SUN NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE S WA COAST. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO 40N 133W WILL PIVOT INTO A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTATION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. THUS...DRY CONDITONS MAY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS FORCED INLAND MON
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE SE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON FOR THE
CASCADES WITH INCREASING S-SWLY FLOW...POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WED AND THU FOR
DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING A SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FT. JUST A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN...PRIMARILY N OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND ALSO IN THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 16Z TO 18Z AND REMAIN VFR FRI AS HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. LOW
STRATUS OR FOG LIKELY DEVELOPS AROUND 12Z. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 16Z TO 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF FRI.
INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE WATERS. A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND
20 KT POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FAR N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON WATERS WHERE THE SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER. AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD ON TAP OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT UNDER HIGH
PRES.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 5 AM
SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
LATE SAT AND SUN. WHILE THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 1 FT
LOWER... SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS FROM
AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT THROUGH AROUND TO 5 PM SUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SUN. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST WED. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 180914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS A BIT SUNDAY. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES AS OF 09Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBVIOUS DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT GRADUALLY MODERATES...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEED TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH 10-15 KT WLY 850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND NW ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF MT.
HOOD AT 18Z.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
500 MB RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE DAMPENS OUT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EVEN SHORTER LIVED THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS FOR THE SAT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SHIFT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE COAST
IN THE 12Z-15Z SAT TIME FRAME AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN
MAY EVEN PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS
SHOW. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A MT. JEFFERSON TO KONP LINE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT. ANY LEFT-OVER PRECIP 12Z SUN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SW WA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICER AS A TRANSITORY 500 MB
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT...WENT DRY SUN NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE S WA COAST. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO 40N 133W WILL PIVOT INTO A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTATION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. THUS...DRY CONDITONS MAY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS FORCED INLAND MON
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE SE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON FOR THE
CASCADES WITH INCREASING S-SWLY FLOW...POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WED AND THU FOR
DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING A SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FT. JUST A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN...PRIMARILY N OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND ALSO IN THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 16Z TO 18Z AND REMAIN VFR FRI AS HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. LOW
STRATUS OR FOG LIKELY DEVELOPS AROUND 12Z. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 16Z TO 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF FRI.
INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE WATERS. A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND
20 KT POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FAR N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON WATERS WHERE THE SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER. AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD ON TAP OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT UNDER HIGH
PRES.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 5 AM
SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
LATE SAT AND SUN. WHILE THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 1 FT
LOWER... SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS FROM
AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT THROUGH AROUND TO 5 PM SUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SUN. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST WED. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 180914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS A BIT SUNDAY. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES AS OF 09Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBVIOUS DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT GRADUALLY MODERATES...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEED TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH 10-15 KT WLY 850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND NW ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF MT.
HOOD AT 18Z.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
500 MB RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE DAMPENS OUT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EVEN SHORTER LIVED THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS FOR THE SAT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SHIFT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE COAST
IN THE 12Z-15Z SAT TIME FRAME AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN
MAY EVEN PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS
SHOW. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A MT. JEFFERSON TO KONP LINE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT. ANY LEFT-OVER PRECIP 12Z SUN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SW WA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICER AS A TRANSITORY 500 MB
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT...WENT DRY SUN NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE S WA COAST. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO 40N 133W WILL PIVOT INTO A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTATION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. THUS...DRY CONDITONS MAY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS FORCED INLAND MON
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE SE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON FOR THE
CASCADES WITH INCREASING S-SWLY FLOW...POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WED AND THU FOR
DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING A SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FT. JUST A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN...PRIMARILY N OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND ALSO IN THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 16Z TO 18Z AND REMAIN VFR FRI AS HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. LOW
STRATUS OR FOG LIKELY DEVELOPS AROUND 12Z. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 16Z TO 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF FRI.
INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE WATERS. A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND
20 KT POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FAR N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON WATERS WHERE THE SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER. AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD ON TAP OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT UNDER HIGH
PRES.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 5 AM
SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
LATE SAT AND SUN. WHILE THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 1 FT
LOWER... SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS FROM
AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT THROUGH AROUND TO 5 PM SUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SUN. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST WED. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 180914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHENS A BIT SUNDAY. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LONG AS MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES AS OF 09Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBVIOUS DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NWS DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND S WA CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRI MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT GRADUALLY MODERATES...WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEED TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE S WA CASCADES AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH 10-15 KT WLY 850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND NW ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF MT.
HOOD AT 18Z.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
500 MB RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE DAMPENS OUT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND EVEN SHORTER LIVED THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS FOR THE SAT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SHIFT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE COAST
IN THE 12Z-15Z SAT TIME FRAME AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN
MAY EVEN PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS
SHOW. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
PRECIP GENERALLY N OF A MT. JEFFERSON TO KONP LINE. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT. ANY LEFT-OVER PRECIP 12Z SUN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SW WA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING NICER AS A TRANSITORY 500 MB
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 5C IN THE FAR
N TO NEAR 10C IN THE FAR S. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT ALLOWING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT...WENT DRY SUN NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR THE S WA COAST. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO 40N 133W WILL PIVOT INTO A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTATION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. THUS...DRY CONDITONS MAY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MON. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS FORCED INLAND MON
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH DIVES TO THE SE.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON FOR THE
CASCADES WITH INCREASING S-SWLY FLOW...POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP WED AND THU FOR
DIMINISHED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING A SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FT. JUST A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN...PRIMARILY N OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND ALSO IN THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 16Z TO 18Z AND REMAIN VFR FRI AS HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. LOW
STRATUS OR FOG LIKELY DEVELOPS AROUND 12Z. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 16Z TO 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF FRI.
INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFT 06Z SAT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE WATERS. A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND
20 KT POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FAR N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON WATERS WHERE THE SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER. AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD ON TAP OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT UNDER HIGH
PRES.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 5 AM
SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
LATE SAT AND SUN. WHILE THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ABOUT 1 FT
LOWER... SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS FROM
AROUND 11 PM SAT NIGHT THROUGH AROUND TO 5 PM SUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SUN. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST WED. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 180525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and wet Pacific weather system passage has resulted in
widespread rain this Thursday night, with windy conditions late
this Thursday night into Friday. A weaker front will bring mainly
windy conditions Saturday afternoon and night with some showers
across the north. Easter Sunday should be mild and mainly dry.
Active and occasionally showery conditions will continue through
the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates primarily to delay slightly the wind increase
tonight...still expecting substaintial post frontal wind gusts
tomorrow but delayed onset tonight by a few hours. Otherwise the
decreasing pop trend continues on into tomorrow and that may be
adjusted as well if the radar and model data merrit the
adjustment, because right now there is just enough activity on the
radar to leave it alone. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front and the cold conditionally unstable
airmass behind it will support showers off and on during the
overnight hours with a general decreasing trend going into
tomorrow. The expectation is however that wind will increase
overnight and peak Friday morning with wind gusts as high as 40
mph or so before decrease again in the afternoon. Some of the
clutter rain showers could result in brief IFR ceilings at times.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  55  33  64  37  57 /  60  30   0   0  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  38  54  31  63  37  56 /  80  60   0   0  20  10
Pullman        38  52  34  66  38  56 /  60  20   0   0  20   0
Lewiston       43  60  36  72  41  63 /  40  10   0   0  10   0
Colville       38  60  31  67  34  62 /  70  50   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      39  54  30  62  36  55 / 100  60   0   0  30  20
Kellogg        37  50  30  63  37  55 / 100  60   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake     40  62  33  69  40  65 /  10  10   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee      40  60  38  65  40  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           37  61  31  66  34  64 /  50  10   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 180433
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
933 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AND WAS NOW EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS DECREASING. WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
WITH A DRY DAY MOST AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN
OUR NORTHERN CASCADE FORECAST ZONES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD
IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON EASTERN SUNDAY. A WAVE ALONG THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY...BUT THEN THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
AS A LARGE CHUNK OF ENERGY DIGS SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA...FINALLY
MOVING ONSHORE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING...AND
WAS NOW EAST OF THE CASCADES. THERE ARE SOME SHOWER OVER THE COAST
RANGE AND THE CASCADES...BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHWEST AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THESE WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE NOT VERY SOLID OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT
SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...AND THOSE WILL BE THE BEST AREAS FOR SOME LOCAL FOG FORMING
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY...BUT SOME NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS FOR AWHILE MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE FRIDAY IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY THAT MAY GIVE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL...AND MAY ALSO AFFECT THE LINGERING SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
SHOWERS.

LOOK FOR CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ARE BRIEFLY IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH SOME CLOUDS INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

THE MODELS ARE LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT FRONT FOR
SATURDAY. TIMING LOOKS CONSISTENT AS WELL. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP PRETTY EARLY SATURDAY ON THE COAST...AND REACH THE
INLAND VALLEYS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AT A DECENT PACE ON SATURDAY...AND APPEARS TO BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT UPPER SHORT WAVE IS
ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON BY 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE THEREFORE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONFIDENCE IN MORE DETAILED TIMING. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TOPSY-TURVY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN TAKES CONTROL. A DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL
VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE
TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE SHOULD BE AND TEMPS AGAIN WARM BACK
TO THE LOWER 60S. AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIED MORE MONDAY...WE COULD HAVE
ANOTHER DRY MORNING...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CASCADES...WITH A
BETTER THREAT INLAND ELSEWHERE IN THE EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PARKS ITSELF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND SENDS WAVES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE PASSES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND IS NOW PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR FOR MANY INLAND
SITES BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE MAINLY MVFR IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE
COAST. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST
AND FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
WEAKENING WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BY 16Z TO 18Z TOMORROW AND REMAIN VFR AS BRIEF HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE
PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TO 09Z. PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT
WILL LIKELY BRING LOW STRATUS OR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. EXPECT VFR
TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS OVER THE WATERS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO THE NW AND HAVE
BEGUN TO SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCALIZED
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING JUST ABOUT AS FCST
AT 8 TO 10 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WILL
ALLOW THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO RUN
THROUGH THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 06Z. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

THEN EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD FRI INTO EARLY SAT WITH THE HIGH
PRES IN PLACE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY
SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. A LARGE
WESTERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS SEAS BETWEEN 17 AND 20 FT BETWEEN
APPROXIMATELY 2 AM AND 2 PM SUNDAY...BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DECREASE. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK THOUGH. PYLE/NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KSEW 180420
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES INLAND.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. A SECOND FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY LATER FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN LATER SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
IDEA OF RAIN REACHING THE COAST AROUND MID-MORNING AND SPREADING
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A MAINLY DRY DAY IN
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A THIRD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH WHAT THIS FRONT
WILL DO. THE BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE COAST WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE INTERIOR
WILL STAY DRY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY...THEN
SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIRLY SHOWERY DAY...WITH LESS
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. A FRONT COULD
REACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY LOW FOR
NOW. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET TONIGHT. THE RIVER LEVEL WILL THEN
BEGIN FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
RIVER TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVER WILL BEGIN
FALLING AGAIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER
WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE BETWEEN KPAE AND KBFI. STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH CONVERGENCE
ZONE INTO CASCADES OVERNIGHT. CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD GET AS FAR
SOUTH AS KBFI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMING LIGHT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS IN THE 3500 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONES WHERE CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000
FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS AOA 5000 FEET
LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO 3500 TO 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WIND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS EASING
BY 12Z. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. WINDS EASING FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND. EXPECT A STRONG COLD FRONT TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ARRIVE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SWELL AS HIGH AS 18 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FRI FOR THE CENTRAL AND
     EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KOTX 172335
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and wet Pacific weather system will result in widespread
rain tonight, with windy conditions late tonight into Friday. A
weaker front will bring mainly windy conditions Saturday afternoon
and night with some showers across the north. Easter Sunday
should be mild and mainly dry. Active and occasionally showery
conditions will continue through the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...The forecast area is under the influence of a
moist Pacific feed which is enhancing into rain over much of the
area compliments of a warm front stretching west to east across
eastern Washington. This will continue through much of the
evening...culminating in a round of heavier showers along and
immediately behind a cold occlusion which is clearly visible on
satellite approaching the coast this afternoon. This front will
probably be sufficient to trigger showers even in the Cascades lee
this evening...an area that has thus far escaped any appreciable
warm frontal precipitation. Model consensus rainfall amounts tonight
will range from 1/4 inch over the eastern basin...to over 1/2 inch
in the Panhandle and northeast mountains and a tenth or so in the
deep basin. Snow levels will remain in the 4000 to 5000 foot
range with minor accumulations on the higher peaks.

After the occluded front passage...this evening in the west and
overnight in the east...precipitation will quickly taper off and
the weather issue will shift to winds. Strong cool and dry air
advection will fill the basin with a new air mass. This air
movement will manifest itself in windy and gusty conditions off
the Cascades and across the basin through Friday...with lingering
orographic showers over the Northeast mountains and Idaho
Panhandle. The gradient strength regardless of which model is used
will not support any wind advisory criteria...and gust potential
in the well mixed air mass will support gusts to 30 to 40
mph...windy but not bad enough to warrant any highlights. The
winds will promote adiabatic warming on Friday to only a few
degrees below average despite the cold advective scenario.
Convective parameters suggest only a minimal threat of isolated
and brief thunderstorms over the northeast during the afternoon.
/Fugazzi

Friday night through Sunday night: Anticipate clearing skies and
decreasing winds Friday night as one storm system departs the
east. Many valley temperatures will dip near the freezing mark and
patchy river fog is a strong possibility throughout the sheltered
northern valleys. Another potent midlevel shortwave will approach
the WA coast Saturday morning then swing through the Inland NW
late afternoon and into the night. This will usher another strong
cold front through the region. The available moisture with this
system will be nearly half of what is being transported inland
today (PWATS of 0.40" vs 0.80"). In addition, the system will pass
through rather quickly. This will mean little no rainfall for the
Basin and generally under a tenth for the surrounding
valleys/mountains. The Cascade Crest will receive closer to an
quarter of an inch. Snow levels will rise between 4000-5000` with
the main precipitation threat and given the nocturnal passage, a
few light snow showers could impact area mountain passes.

Gusty winds are expected to accompany the system. Cross CWA pressure
gradients become tightly packed but generally remain around 10mb
or less. This should drive sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph. The
trickier part of the forecast will be gusts. The cold front
presses through Ern WA and Nrn ID between 00-04z with sharp
cooling at 850mb from around 8C to 0C. Forecast soundings indicate
a well mixed profile from the surface to 750mb between 00-03z. If
this holds true, we should see wind gusts between 20-30 mph ahead
of the cold front and increasing to 35-45 mph along and immediate
behind the cold front. We have began to increase wind gusts with
the afternoon forecast package and will likely continue this trend
with the overnight package if model trends remain consistent.

The storm system will be out of the region early Sunday morning
and high pressure will begin to build in Sunday and Sunday night.
A weak warm front will lift through the area spreading mid and
high level clouds but most locations will be dry with seasonal
temperatures. There is a slim chance for a few light showers
across the northern mountains but the light nature of this
activity will have very little impact on travel or recreation. /sb

Monday through Thursday: Throughout this time frame the region
will remain in a pretty active pattern as a well defined trough
influences our weather pattern. Starting Monday we will be on the
backside of a ridge of high pressure giving us one final day of
pleasant warm conditions due to the associated warm SW flow.
Throughout Monday we will notice increasing clouds as moisture
from the incoming system begins to influence our weather pattern.
Increased moisture will enter the region re-saturating the
atmospheric column Monday into Monday Night. Given the need to
re-saturate, the best chances initially for precip will be in the
higher elevations.

For Monday Night, the precip associated with the trough will make
it to the Cascades before spreading east of the crest early
Tuesday and through the remainder of the day. With the trough axis
being directly off the WA coast, it will allow for an abundance of
Pacific moisture to advect into our area and with PWATs near .7",
this will lead to a good chance of widespread rain. As the trough
center moves overhead, we will then have cooler air aloft
allowing for lower snow levels and a much more destabilized
atmosphere. With associated weak waves within the closed low
trough, this will promote scattered weak convective showers on
Wednesday. The coverage of these showers will have to be better
refined in the future, but is something to note. Snow levels is
also something to watch as the system brings in quite a bit of
cool air aloft.

Thursday will see a brief drying trend before the next system sets
up for the end of the work week. Overall we can expect to see an
abundance of clouds throughout the period as enough moisture will
remain in place for a higher amount of cover. Aside from the 60s
on Monday, the remainder of the work week will feature below
normal temps in the 50s for most valleys. Winds will also remain
breezy throughout the period, but should not warrant any sort of
highlights. /Fliehman
&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front running along the Pacific Coast at 00z will
move through the region and pass through KEAT around 03Z-04Z and
the eastern TAF sites between 06Z and 12Z Friday. Ahead of this
front a moist feed off the Pacific will promote widespread -RA
with mostly MVFR ceilings...with some brief periods of IFR
ceilings especially at the KPUW and KGEG TAF sites. After the
FROPA the air mass will dry quickly with VFR conditions at all TAF
sites...but gusty west/southwest winds developing Friday morning
and persisting through 00Z Saturday./MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  55  33  64  37  57 / 100  30   0   0  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  38  54  31  63  37  56 / 100  60   0   0  20  10
Pullman        38  52  34  66  38  56 / 100  20   0   0  20   0
Lewiston       43  60  36  72  41  63 / 100  10   0   0  10   0
Colville       38  60  31  67  34  62 / 100  50   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      39  54  30  62  36  55 / 100  60   0   0  30  20
Kellogg        37  50  30  63  37  55 / 100  60   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake     40  62  33  69  40  65 /  50  10   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee      40  60  38  65  40  64 /  60   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           37  61  31  66  34  64 /  70  10   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 172225
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
325 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES INLAND.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. A SECOND FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MOST AREAS. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER PRETTY FAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY LATER FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LEVELS DRY.

A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING RAIN LATER SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN REACHING THE COAST AROUND
MID-MORNING AND SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL
PROBABLY BE A MAINLY DRY DAY IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

A THIRD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. MODELS
HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH WHAT THIS FRONT WILL DO. THE BEST
GUESS FOR NOW IS THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALL NEAR THE COAST
ON SUNDAY. THE COAST WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM
SUNDAY BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE INTERIOR WILL STAY DRY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY...THEN
SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIRLY SHOWERY DAY...WITH LESS
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. A FRONT COULD
REACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY LOW FOR
NOW. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET TONIGHT. THE RIVER LEVEL WILL THEN
BEGIN FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
RIVER TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVER WILL BEGIN
FALLING AGAIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER
WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE E OF THE CASCADES BY LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 3-5K FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE ALONG
WITH VSBYS OF 2-4SM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE 4-6K FT
RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF CIGS MAINLY IN THE 2-3K
FT RANGE.

EXPECT A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/ TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
BETWEEN KAWO AND KPAE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE PSCZ SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH
COUNTY BORDER BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS DISSIPATE
THE PSCZ OVERNIGHT BUT FEEL THAT THIS IS TOO QUICK. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY DRIFT SWD INTO KING COUNTY...N OF KBFI
LATE TONIGHT.

KSEA...CIGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LIFT INTO TO NEAR 5K FT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
SW 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. FROPA
IS NOW EXPECTED ABOUT 0000 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT ABOUT 35 NM OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS LATE TODAY. EXPECT WESTERLY
WINDS TO RISE TO GALE FORCE OVER PARTS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF
THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON FRI. EXPECT A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY.

THE WAVE WATCH MODEL CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE LARGE WAVES OF 16 TO 19
FEET REACHING THE COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND
SEE NO FURTHER REASON TO UNDERCUT THE MODEL. THUS THE FORECAST WILL
INDICATE LARGE OCEAN WAVES REACHING THE COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND.
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS WEEKEND. THOSE PLANNING CLAM DIGGING
OR OTHER BEACH ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
WAVE FORECASTS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 172137
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN TURNS TO A FEW
SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
ANOTHER FRONT IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY...BUT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.... RAIN HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED UPTICKS IN PRECIPITATION RATES
OF LATE. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS ALONG THE COAST/COAST RANGE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. KLGX RADAR DEPICTS MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL OFF AND ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.   LATEST RAP/HRRR PUT THE COLD FRONT ON
THE COAST AROUND 0Z...A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN THE VALLEY....THOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SOME
UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING A REAL BIG KICK AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES DRAG BY TO OUR NORTH. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES
AROUND 06Z FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE
COLUMBIA GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.

FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
GIVEN THE COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FALL TO NEAR THE PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS
TO WANE.

SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOME CONFINED TO CASCADES AND COAST RANGE
TONIGHT AS WE ARE IN WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS SOME
WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS NOSING IN TONIGHT
AND SLIDES NORTH ALONG THE COAST RANGE...SO MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FLOW THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT AND LESS SO EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS DEPICT DECREASING MOISTURE WITH HEIGHT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE LARGELY STILL UNSTABLE.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT
+2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...HIGH SUN
ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY BEING A WET AFTERNOON INLAND. LESS IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH
TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT THIS WILL
BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN THAN TODAY AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. /KMD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TOPSY-TURVY WEATHER
CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE
PAC NW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN TAKES CONTROL. A DEEPENING
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT MORE SUN. SW
WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE
SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE SHOULD BE AND TEMPS AGAIN
WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 60S. AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIED MORE MONDAY...WE
COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY MORNING...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS
TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CASCADES...WITH A BETTER THREAT INLAND ELSEWHERE IN THE EVENING,.

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PARKS ITSELF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND SENDS WAVES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE PASSES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. /KMD

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONTAL RAIN IS REACHING THE COAT FOR A RETURN TO
MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  COLD FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS
AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 0Z...AND REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 3-
4Z AND THE CASCADES BY 5-6Z WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH THIS
TIME. VFR RETURNS WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY UNSTABLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH OPS AREA AROUND 03Z....WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. HEADING BACK TO
VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY EARLY FRIDAY.  /KMD

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT. WINDS
SHOULD RELAX BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD HANG ON A TOUCH LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD RISE A COUPLE FEET IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALLOW SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY SATURDAY.
EXPECT MORE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGS SEAS BETWEEN 17 AND 20 FT BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 2 AM
AND 2 PM SUNDAY...BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE. SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 172137
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN TURNS TO A FEW
SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
ANOTHER FRONT IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY...BUT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.... RAIN HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED UPTICKS IN PRECIPITATION RATES
OF LATE. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS ALONG THE COAST/COAST RANGE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. KLGX RADAR DEPICTS MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL OFF AND ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.   LATEST RAP/HRRR PUT THE COLD FRONT ON
THE COAST AROUND 0Z...A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN THE VALLEY....THOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SOME
UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING A REAL BIG KICK AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES DRAG BY TO OUR NORTH. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES
AROUND 06Z FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE
COLUMBIA GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.

FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
GIVEN THE COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FALL TO NEAR THE PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS
TO WANE.

SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOME CONFINED TO CASCADES AND COAST RANGE
TONIGHT AS WE ARE IN WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THERE IS SOME
WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS NOSING IN TONIGHT
AND SLIDES NORTH ALONG THE COAST RANGE...SO MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FLOW THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT AND LESS SO EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS DEPICT DECREASING MOISTURE WITH HEIGHT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE LARGELY STILL UNSTABLE.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT
+2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...HIGH SUN
ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY BEING A WET AFTERNOON INLAND. LESS IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH
TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT THIS WILL
BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN THAN TODAY AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. /KMD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TOPSY-TURVY WEATHER
CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE
PAC NW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN TAKES CONTROL. A DEEPENING
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT MORE SUN. SW
WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE
SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE SHOULD BE AND TEMPS AGAIN
WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 60S. AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIED MORE MONDAY...WE
COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY MORNING...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS
TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CASCADES...WITH A BETTER THREAT INLAND ELSEWHERE IN THE EVENING,.

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PARKS ITSELF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND SENDS WAVES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE PASSES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. /KMD

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONTAL RAIN IS REACHING THE COAT FOR A RETURN TO
MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  COLD FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS
AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 0Z...AND REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 3-
4Z AND THE CASCADES BY 5-6Z WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH THIS
TIME. VFR RETURNS WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY UNSTABLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH OPS AREA AROUND 03Z....WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. HEADING BACK TO
VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY EARLY FRIDAY.  /KMD

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT. WINDS
SHOULD RELAX BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD HANG ON A TOUCH LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD RISE A COUPLE FEET IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALLOW SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY SATURDAY.
EXPECT MORE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGS SEAS BETWEEN 17 AND 20 FT BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 2 AM
AND 2 PM SUNDAY...BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE. SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KOTX 172128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and wet Pacific weather system will result in widespread
rain tonight, with windy conditions late tonight into Friday. A
weaker front will bring mainly windy conditions Saturday afternoon
and night with some showers across the north. Easter Sunday
should be mild and mainly dry. Active and occasionally showery
conditions will continue through the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...The forecast area is under the influence of a
moist Pacific feed which is enhancing into rain over much of the
area compliments of a warm front stretching west to east across
eastern Washington. This will continue through much of the
evening...culminating in a round of heavier showers along and
immediately behind a cold occlusion which is clearly visible on
satellite approaching the coast this afternoon. This front will
probably be sufficient to trigger showers even in the Cascades lee
this evening...an area that has thus far escaped any appreciable
warm frontal precipitation. Model consensus rainfall amounts tonight
will range from 1/4 inch over the eastern basin...to over 1/2 inch
in the Panhandle and northeast mountains and a tenth or so in the
deep basin. Snow levels will remain in the 4000 to 5000 foot
range with minor accumulations on the higher peaks.

After the occluded front passage...this evening in the west and
overnight in the east...precipitation will quickly taper off and
the weather issue will shift to winds. Strong cool and dry air
advection will fill the basin with a new air mass. This air
movement will manifest itself in windy and gusty conditions off
the Cascades and across the basin through Friday...with lingering
orographic showers over the Northeast mountains and Idaho
Panhandle. The gradient strength regardless of which model is used
will not support any wind advisory criteria...and gust potential
in the well mixed air mass will support gusts to 30 to 40
mph...windy but not bad enough to warrant any highlights. The
winds will promote adiabatic warming on Friday to only a few
degrees below average despite the cold advective scenario.
Convective parameters suggest only a minimal threat of isolated
and brief thunderstorms over the northeast during the afternoon.
/Fugazzi

Friday night through Sunday night: Anticipate clearing skies and
decreasing winds Friday night as one storm system departs the
east. Many valley temperatures will dip near the freezing mark and
patchy river fog is a strong possibility throughout the sheltered
northern valleys. Another potent midlevel shortwave will approach
the WA coast Saturday morning then swing through the Inland NW
late afternoon and into the night. This will usher another strong
cold front through the region. The available moisture with this
system will be nearly half of what is being transported inland
today (PWATS of 0.40" vs 0.80"). In addition, the system will pass
through rather quickly. This will mean little no rainfall for the
Basin and generally under a tenth for the surrounding
valleys/mountains. The Cascade Crest will receive closer to an
quarter of an inch. Snow levels will rise between 4000-5000` with
the main precipitation threat and given the nocturnal passage, a
few light snow showers could impact area mountain passes.

Gusty winds are expected to accompany the system. Cross CWA pressure
gradients become tightly packed but generally remain around 10mb
or less. This should drive sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph. The
trickier part of the forecast will be gusts. The cold front
presses through Ern WA and Nrn ID between 00-04z with sharp
cooling at 850mb from around 8C to 0C. Forecast soundings indicate
a well mixed profile from the surface to 750mb between 00-03z. If
this holds true, we should see wind gusts between 20-30 mph ahead
of the cold front and increasing to 35-45 mph along and immediate
behind the cold front. We have began to increase wind gusts with
the afternoon forecast package and will likely continue this trend
with the overnight package if model trends remain consistent.

The storm system will be out of the region early Sunday morning
and high pressure will begin to build in Sunday and Sunday night.
A weak warm front will lift through the area spreading mid and
high level clouds but most locations will be dry with seasonal
temperatures. There is a slim chance for a few light showers
across the northern mountains but the light nature of this
activity will have very little impact on travel or recreation. /sb

Monday through Thursday: Throughout this time frame the region
will remain in a pretty active pattern as a well defined trough
influences our weather pattern. Starting Monday we will be on the
backside of a ridge of high pressure giving us one final day of
pleasant warm conditions due to the associated warm SW flow.
Throughout Monday we will notice increasing clouds as moisture
from the incoming system begins to influence our weather pattern.
Increased moisture will enter the region re-saturating the
atmospheric column Monday into Monday Night. Given the need to
re-saturate, the best chances initially for precip will be in the
higher elevations.

For Monday Night, the precip associated with the trough will make
it to the Cascades before spreading east of the crest early
Tuesday and through the remainder of the day. With the trough axis
being directly off the WA coast, it will allow for an abundance of
Pacific moisture to advect into our area and with PWATs near .7",
this will lead to a good chance of widespread rain. As the trough
center moves overhead, we will then have cooler air aloft
allowing for lower snow levels and a much more destabilized
atmosphere. With associated weak waves within the closed low
trough, this will promote scattered weak convective showers on
Wednesday. The coverage of these showers will have to be better
refined in the future, but is something to note. Snow levels is
also something to watch as the system brings in quite a bit of
cool air aloft.

Thursday will see a brief drying trend before the next system sets
up for the end of the work week. Overall we can expect to see an
abundance of clouds throughout the period as enough moisture will
remain in place for a higher amount of cover. Aside from the 60s
on Monday, the remainder of the work week will feature below
normal temps in the 50s for most valleys. Winds will also remain
breezy throughout the period, but should not warrant any sort of
highlights. /Fliehman
&&

.AVIATION...
18 TAFS: A moist Pacific storm system will spread light to
moderate rain across the region today into this evening. Cigs and
vis will lower into MVFR/IFR category through about 06Z-10Z before
significant drying behind the cold front scours out the low level
moisture. Winds will then become gusty behind the front by the
early morning hours on Friday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  55  33  64  37  57 / 100  30   0   0  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  38  54  31  63  37  56 / 100  60   0   0  20  10
Pullman        38  52  34  66  38  56 / 100  20   0   0  20   0
Lewiston       43  60  36  72  41  63 / 100  10   0   0  10   0
Colville       38  60  31  67  34  62 / 100  50   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      39  54  30  62  36  55 / 100  60   0   0  30  20
Kellogg        37  50  30  63  37  55 / 100  60   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake     40  62  33  69  40  65 /  50  10   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee      40  60  38  65  40  64 /  60   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           37  61  31  66  34  64 /  70  10   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 171706
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and wet Pacific weather system will result in widespread
rain Today and tonight, with windy conditions late tonight into
Friday. A weaker front will bring mainly windy conditions Saturday
afternoon and night. Easter Sunday should be mild and mainly dry.
Showers will be more prevalent for the first part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today and tonight...Satellite reveals a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture ramming into the northwest...and being
efficiently enhanced into widespread light rain along a warm
front. For the rest of the day the front will be slow moving
enough and the moisture feed will be continuous...leading to not
much change from what is happening now...namely widespread rain
particularly across the eastern and northern reaches of the
forecast area. The east slopes of the Cascades and the deep basin
have so far escaped with only isolated showers...but these areas
will increasingly come under the gun as the day wears on as
heavier moisture and enhanced lift from the approaching cold
front increases shower coverage over these regions. The chance of
embedded thunderstorms over the Cascades this afternoon and
evening is very low but not null. The area of slight chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening has been trimmed back to
the Cascades. High temperatures today at most locations have been
pruned by a couple degrees as well to account for no sun and
widespread precipitation. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A moist Pacific storm system will spread light to
moderate rain across the region today into this evening. Cigs and
vis will lower into MVFR/IFR category through about 06Z-10Z
before significant drying behind the cold front scours out the low
level moisture. Winds will then become gusty behind the front by
the early morning hours on Friday. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  38  56  33  63  37 / 100 100  30   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  50  38  55  32  63  39 / 100 100  50  10   0  30
Pullman        53  38  53  33  66  38 / 100 100  20   0   0  20
Lewiston       57  43  59  36  72  43 /  60 100  10   0   0  20
Colville       53  36  61  31  68  34 / 100 100  40  10  10  20
Sandpoint      48  38  54  31  62  36 / 100 100  60  20   0  30
Kellogg        50  37  52  32  62  38 / 100 100  60  10   0  50
Moses Lake     57  39  64  35  69  39 /  70  50  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      58  40  62  41  66  43 /  70  40   0   0  10  10
Omak           54  36  62  33  67  34 /  70  70  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 171702
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1002 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND WET PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAKER FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD BE MILD AND MAINLY DRY.
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE REVEALS A DEEP FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE RAMMING INTO THE NORTHWEST...AND BEING
EFFICIENTLY ENHANCED INTO WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG A WARM
FRONT. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING
ENOUGH AND THE MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CONTINUOUS...LEADING TO NOT
MUCH CHANGE FROM WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW...NAMELY WIDESPREAD RAIN
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE DEEP BASIN
HAVE SO FAR ESCAPED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT THESE AREAS
WILL INCREASINGLY COME UNDER THE GUN AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS
HEAVIER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT INCREASES SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THESE REGIONS. THE CHANCE OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS VERY LOW BUT NOT NULL. THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO
THE CASCADES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN
PRUNED BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR NO SUN AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. /FUGAZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS AND
VIS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR CATEGORY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z-10Z
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        51  38  56  33  63  37 / 100 100  30   0   0  20
COEUR D`ALENE  50  38  55  32  63  39 / 100 100  50  10   0  30
PULLMAN        53  38  53  33  66  38 / 100 100  20   0   0  20
LEWISTON       57  43  59  36  72  43 /  60 100  10   0   0  20
COLVILLE       53  36  61  31  68  34 / 100 100  40  10  10  20
SANDPOINT      48  38  54  31  62  36 / 100 100  60  20   0  30
KELLOGG        50  37  52  32  62  38 / 100 100  60  10   0  50
MOSES LAKE     57  39  64  35  69  39 /  70  50  10   0  10  10
WENATCHEE      58  40  62  41  66  43 /  70  40   0   0  10  10
OMAK           54  36  62  33  67  34 /  70  70  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 171611
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH TODAY WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER GENERALLY WET. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MOST
AREAS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER PRETTY FAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR
A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY.

A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING RAIN LATER SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN REACHING THE COAST AROUND
MID-MORNING AND SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL
PROBABLY BE A MAINLY DRY DAY IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A THIRD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND NOT SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EVEN MONDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE NE PAC ON MON WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH WESTERN WA
FOR MORE RAIN. THE LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND TUE THROUGH
WED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND
UNSTABLE WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 3000 FT. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD HAVE GOOD MIXING AND WILL PROBABLY SEE AFTERNOON
SUNBREAKS. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE TODAY WITH A CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL BEGIN FALLING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF ABOUT ONE INCH.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NW LATER TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/ TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
BETWEEN KAWO AND KPAE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY. THE PSCZ SHOULD
BECOME QUASISTATIONARY NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTY BORDER THIS
EVENING.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY TODAY. RAIN WILL REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE 2-4SM RANGE AT TIMES.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT ABOUT 130 NM OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO RISE TO GALE FORCE
OVER PARTS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1019 MB
HIGH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE CASCADES
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON FRI. EXPECT A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATED THAT
SEAS COULD REACH 15 TO 20 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTS GUIDANCE.
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...WILL NEED TO BUMP UP WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KPQR 171606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING TO
ENCOMPASS EVERYWHERE BUT THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. MORNING SOUNDING
FROM SALEM INDICATED THAT SOME LOWER LEVEL SATURATION WAS STILL
NEEDED AND NOW THIS HAS OCCURRED. THERE IS A DECENT MOISTURE PLUME
THAT HAD ORIGINS IN THE SUBTROPICS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BUT SOME OF IT (0.90 PW ON KLSE 12Z SOUNDING) HAS BEEN ENTRAINED
THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP/HRRR PUT THE COLD
FRONT ON THE COAST AROUND 0Z...A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN THE
VALLEY....THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING A REAL
BIG KICK AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DRAG BY TO OUR NORTH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SATURDAY BEING A WET AFTERNOON INLAND...SO EXPECT POPS TO GO UP
DURING THIS TIME. LESS IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY
BETTER DYNAMICS BUT THIS WILL BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN
THAN TODAY. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST WITH VIS AND
EVENTUALLY WITH CIGS. EXPECT IFR AT TIMES AS WELL.  THE COAST CAN
CONTINUE TO EXPECT OF MIX OF EVERYTHING TODAY BUT MVFR AND IFR WILL
BE PREDOMINANT...WITH PERSISTENT IFR CIGS INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 0Z...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 2-3Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURNING TO VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE CASCADES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT CIGS DOWN TO 1500 FT
OR LOWER AT TIMES AS RAIN INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY TODAY. HAVE POCKETS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE TERMINAL AS WELL. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH
OPS AREA AROUND 03Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. HEADING BACK TO VFR
BEHIND THE FRONT. /KMD

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TOWARDS MIDDAY BEFORE
TURNING W TO NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY AS THERE IS AN CHANCE WIND GUSTS COULD
PUSH 35 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
A GALE WARNING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. EITHER
WAY...SEAS SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE THIS EVENING SO
A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF TOPPING OUT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 10 FT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. LIKELY THE BIGGEST STORY WITH THIS
FRONT IS THAT A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. 15 TO 20 FT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUN OR TWO TRENDING HIGHER. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 171606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING TO
ENCOMPASS EVERYWHERE BUT THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. MORNING SOUNDING
FROM SALEM INDICATED THAT SOME LOWER LEVEL SATURATION WAS STILL
NEEDED AND NOW THIS HAS OCCURRED. THERE IS A DECENT MOISTURE PLUME
THAT HAD ORIGINS IN THE SUBTROPICS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BUT SOME OF IT (0.90 PW ON KLSE 12Z SOUNDING) HAS BEEN ENTRAINED
THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP/HRRR PUT THE COLD
FRONT ON THE COAST AROUND 0Z...A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN THE
VALLEY....THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING A REAL
BIG KICK AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DRAG BY TO OUR NORTH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SATURDAY BEING A WET AFTERNOON INLAND...SO EXPECT POPS TO GO UP
DURING THIS TIME. LESS IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY
BETTER DYNAMICS BUT THIS WILL BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN
THAN TODAY. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST WITH VIS AND
EVENTUALLY WITH CIGS. EXPECT IFR AT TIMES AS WELL.  THE COAST CAN
CONTINUE TO EXPECT OF MIX OF EVERYTHING TODAY BUT MVFR AND IFR WILL
BE PREDOMINANT...WITH PERSISTENT IFR CIGS INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 0Z...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 2-3Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURNING TO VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE CASCADES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT CIGS DOWN TO 1500 FT
OR LOWER AT TIMES AS RAIN INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY TODAY. HAVE POCKETS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE TERMINAL AS WELL. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH
OPS AREA AROUND 03Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. HEADING BACK TO VFR
BEHIND THE FRONT. /KMD

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TOWARDS MIDDAY BEFORE
TURNING W TO NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY AS THERE IS AN CHANCE WIND GUSTS COULD
PUSH 35 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
A GALE WARNING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. EITHER
WAY...SEAS SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE THIS EVENING SO
A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF TOPPING OUT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 10 FT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. LIKELY THE BIGGEST STORY WITH THIS
FRONT IS THAT A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. 15 TO 20 FT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUN OR TWO TRENDING HIGHER. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 171208
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
508 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and wet Pacific weather system will result in widespread
rain Thursday and Thursday night, with windy conditions late
tonight into Friday. A weaker front will bring mainly windy
conditions Saturday afternoon and night. Easter Sunday should be
mild and mainly dry. Showers will be more prevalent for the first
part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM FEATURING MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY AND
GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

Today through Friday: Satellite imagery shows a very dynamic low
pressure system pushing into western WA at around 2:30 AM. The
cold front with this system is beginning to cross 130W with well
defined darkening behind the front noticeable on the water vapor
imagery. Strong isentropic ascent will develop ahead of the front
across eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle. All areas will see a
good chance for some rain this morning into the afternoon.
Heaviest accumulations will likely be across the eastern two-
thirds of the forecast area as we will see some downsloping taking
place along the lee side of the Cascades. Strong frontal forcing
is expected to result in a period of moderate to heavy rainfall
along the cold front late this afternoon into this evening. Mid
level laps rates will steepen to 7-9 C/KM between 700-500 mbs.
This destabilization will result in roughly 200 J/KG of CAPE with
cloud tops potentially topping out above 20 kft. The instability
is decent, but I would like to see a bit more to have higher
confidence for thunderstorms. Nevertheless, the dynamics will be
quite strong with this system and could be enough to overcome the
instability deficiencies. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
right along and behind the cold front. This will mainly be for the
late afternoon and evening hours for the western portion of the
forecast area and shifting eastward overnight as the upper level
shortwave trough moves into the region.

Gusty winds can be anticipate with the front overnight. 850 mb
winds will be up around 30-40 kts. There shouldn`t be a problem
mixing down these stronger winds with how strong the front will be and
advisory level strength will be possible; however, confidence at
this time is too low for a highlight. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will also be capable of producing even stronger gusts.
Most areas are expected to see sustained winds of 20-30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph possible for late tonight and continuing into
Friday morning. Winds will remain breezy into Friday afternoon,
but strongest winds will likely occur with and directly behind the
front.

A cold and rainy spring day is expected today with highs only
getting into the 50s, and some areas may not warm above the 50
degree mark especially in the Panhandle. Temperatures will remain
below normal on Friday, but should be warmer compared to today
with a good chance for sun as much drier air filters in behind
this system. /SVH

Friday Night through Monday: In the wake of the Thursday/Friday
rain, skies will clear Friday night and winds will subside,
allowing for fog formation in the usual valley locations. There`s
a decent amount of dry air that moves in behind the cold front
though, so the fog and low clouds shouldn`t be very extensive.
Otherwise Saturday looks to be a warm and sunny day. But this is
short-lived as the next Pacific system will reach the Cascade
crest by the late afternoon. This front is entirely different
beast than our Thursday/Friday system. Instead, moisture is
largely confined in the mid-layers of the atmosphere. This favors
just light precipitation over the mountains and nothing over the
Basin.

The more noteworthy part of this system will be the winds. The
cold front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon/evening
bringing gusty winds to the area. At this point I went with gusts
to 30 or 35 mph. We`ll need to keep an eye on this forecast as
the winds could be a bit stronger than this.

Easter Sunday looks mostly dry with more sun than clouds. The
exception will be over the Cascades, the northeast mountains, and
the northern Panhandle, where a few showers may develop.

Monday will see yet another weak Pacific front. Similar to its
predecessor, the majority of the moisture will be in the mid and
upper atmosphere. So again, mountains will be favored with little
or nothing in the lower elevations, especially in the Basin.  RJ

Tuesday through Thursday: A more unsettled weather pattern will
overspread the Inland Northwest for the early/middle portion of
next week. A large scale trough, which is fairly well agreed upon
by the extended models, will begin to move inland by Tuesday, with
another round of precipitation affecting much of the region. How
much is still a little more in question, but the potential exists
for this trough to briefly tap into a better moisture tap in
southwest flow, which could give some heavier rainfall amounts to mainly
eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle Tuesday and/or Tuesday
night. Afterwards, the better chances for precipitation would move
to the east. While the more organized precipitation would be east
of the region by Wednesday, the cold pool aloft associated with
the larger trough will still be overhead. This would promote more
scattered afternoon showers during the afternoon hours, with a
drying trend going into Thursday.

With regards to temperatures, readings look to remain on the cool
side with precipitation Tuesday (3 to 5 degrees below normal),
with maybe a slight warming trend Wednesday and Thursday. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A moist Pacific storm system will spread light to
moderate rain across the region today into this evening. Cigs and
vis will lower into MVFR/IFR category through about 06Z-10Z
before significant drying behind the cold front scours out the low
level moisture. Winds will then become gusty behind the front by
the early morning hours on Friday. There is enough forcing and
instability with this system that some isolated thunderstorms will
be possible as the upper level trough moves through late this
afternoon into tonight; however, confidence is too low to include
thunderstorms in the TAFs at this time. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  38  56  33  63  37 / 100 100  30   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  50  38  55  32  63  39 / 100 100  50  10   0  30
Pullman        54  38  53  33  66  38 /  60 100  20   0   0  20
Lewiston       60  43  59  36  72  43 /  30 100  10   0   0  20
Colville       54  36  61  31  68  34 / 100 100  40  10  10  20
Sandpoint      49  38  54  31  62  36 / 100 100  60  20   0  30
Kellogg        50  37  52  32  62  38 /  90 100  60  10   0  50
Moses Lake     58  39  64  35  69  39 /  90  50  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      60  40  62  41  66  43 /  80  40   0   0  10  10
Omak           56  36  62  33  67  34 /  80  70  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 171023
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH TODAY WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL ARRIVE
LATER SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER GENERALLY WET.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AS
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND. SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PSCZ MAY LINGER
INTO FRI MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAKS WITH HIGHS BACK NEAR 60
DEGREES. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AS OUR NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES. SO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
RAIN SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING MAY BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY ON
SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SUN NIGHT. 33

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NE PAC ON MON
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH WESTERN WA FOR MORE RAIN.
THE LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND TUE THROUGH WED FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE WITH
SNOW LEVELS NEAR 3000 FT. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD WE SHOULD
HAVE GOOD MIXING AND WILL PROBABLY SEE AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE TODAY WITH A CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL BEGIN FALLING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT ONE INCH.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
REACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND TONIGHT WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FOOT RANGE WITH LOCAL
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 2 TO 4 SM IN LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG. SMALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A 2500 FOOT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER WITH ANOTHER BROKEN LAYER 4000-5000 FEET.
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SHOWERS NEAR
KPAE.

KSEA...CEILINGS 1000-2000 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5 SM AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. SMALL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 23Z WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING POST FRONTAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR AND JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE STRAIT EARLY
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS LASTING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS EASING FRIDAY MORNING. NEXT FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. LARGE SWELL TRAIN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SWELL BUILDING TO AROUND 15
FEET ON SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 170956
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
256 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and wet Pacific weather system will result in widespread
rain Thursday and Thursday night, with windy conditions late
tonight into Friday. A weaker front will bring mainly windy
conditions Saturday afternoon and night. Easter Sunday should be
mild and mainly dry. Showers will be more prevalent for the first
part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM FEATURING MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY AND
GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

Today through Friday: Satellite imagery shows a very dynamic low
pressure system pushing into western WA at around 2:30 AM. The
cold front with this system is beginning to cross 130W with well
defined darkening behind the front noticeable on the water vapor
imagery. Strong isentropic ascent will develop ahead of the front
across eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle. All areas will see a
good chance for some rain this morning into the afternoon.
Heaviest accumulations will likely be across the eastern two-
thirds of the forecast area as we will see some downsloping taking
place along the lee side of the Cascades. Strong frontal forcing
is expected to result in a period of moderate to heavy rainfall
along the cold front late this afternoon into this evening. Mid
level laps rates will steepen to 7-9 C/KM between 700-500 mbs.
This destabilization will result in roughly 200 J/KG of CAPE with
cloud tops potentially topping out above 20 kft. The instability
is decent, but I would like to see a bit more to have higher
confidence for thunderstorms. Nevertheless, the dynamics will be
quite strong with this system and could be enough to overcome the
instability deficiencies. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
right along and behind the cold front. This will mainly be for the
late afternoon and evening hours for the western portion of the
forecast area and shifting eastward overnight as the upper level
shortwave trough moves into the region.

Gusty winds can be anticipate with the front overnight. 850 mb
winds will be up around 30-40 kts. There shouldn`t be a problem
mixing down these stronger winds with how strong the front will be and
advisory level strength will be possible; however, confidence at
this time is too low for a highlight. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will also be capable of producing even stronger gusts.
Most areas are expected to see sustained winds of 20-30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph possible for late tonight and continuing into
Friday morning. Winds will remain breezy into Friday afternoon,
but strongest winds will likely occur with and directly behind the
front.

A cold and rainy spring day is expected today with highs only
getting into the 50s, and some areas may not warm above the 50
degree mark especially in the Panhandle. Temperatures will remain
below normal on Friday, but should be warmer compared to today
with a good chance for sun as much drier air filters in behind
this system. /SVH

Friday Night through Monday: In the wake of the Thursday/Friday
rain, skies will clear Friday night and winds will subside,
allowing for fog formation in the usual valley locations. There`s
a decent amount of dry air that moves in behind the cold front
though, so the fog and low clouds shouldn`t be very extensive.
Otherwise Saturday looks to be a warm and sunny day. But this is
short-lived as the next Pacific system will reach the Cascade
crest by the late afternoon. This front is entirely different
beast than our Thursday/Friday system. Instead, moisture is
largely confined in the mid-layers of the atmosphere. This favors
just light precipitation over the mountains and nothing over the
Basin.

The more noteworthy part of this system will be the winds. The
cold front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon/evening
bringing gusty winds to the area. At this point I went with gusts
to 30 or 35 mph. We`ll need to keep an eye on this forecast as
the winds could be a bit stronger than this.

Easter Sunday looks mostly dry with more sun than clouds. The
exception will be over the Cascades, the northeast mountains, and
the northern Panhandle, where a few showers may develop.

Monday will see yet another weak Pacific front. Similar to its
predecessor, the majority of the moisture will be in the mid and
upper atmosphere. So again, mountains will be favored with little
or nothing in the lower elevations, especially in the Basin.  RJ

Tuesday through Thursday: A more unsettled weather pattern will
overspread the Inland Northwest for the early/middle portion of
next week. A large scale trough, which is fairly well agreed upon
by the extended models, will begin to move inland by Tuesday, with
another round of precipitation affecting much of the region. How
much is still a little more in question, but the potential exists
for this trough to briefly tap into a better moisture tap in
southwest flow, which could give some heavier rainfall amounts to mainly
eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle Tuesday and/or Tuesday
night. Afterwards, the better chances for precipitation would move
to the east. While the more organized precipitation would be east
of the region by Wednesday, the cold pool aloft associated with
the larger trough will still be overhead. This would promote more
scattered afternoon showers during the afternoon hours, with a
drying trend going into Thursday.

With regards to temperatures, readings look to remain on the cool
side with precipitation Tuesday (3 to 5 degrees below normal),
with maybe a slight warming trend Wednesday and Thursday. ty

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A wave pressing along the Cascades is
pushing moisture over and increasing cloud clover for the
TAF sites. This moisture is mainly upper level and not creating
any issues or precip for the sites. Cigs in these areas are
hovering around MVFR and will continue to as another more moist
system moves into the region around 18Z and bringing rain showers
to the Inland Northwest. The region can expect to be under the
influence of rain showers through the period. /JDC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  38  56  33  63  37 / 100 100  30   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  50  38  55  32  63  39 / 100 100  50  10   0  30
Pullman        54  38  53  33  66  38 /  60 100  20   0   0  20
Lewiston       60  43  59  36  72  43 /  30 100  10   0   0  20
Colville       54  36  61  31  68  34 / 100 100  40  10  10  20
Sandpoint      49  38  54  31  62  36 / 100 100  60  20   0  30
Kellogg        50  37  52  32  62  38 /  90 100  60  10   0  50
Moses Lake     58  39  64  35  69  39 /  90  50  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      60  40  62  41  66  43 /  80  40   0   0  10  10
Omak           56  36  62  33  67  34 /  80  70  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 170912
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
211 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE ALONG THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR NORTH OF KSLE. RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 22Z THU...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 01Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FT WITH
STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 11-12Z. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THU WITH PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH OPS AREA AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN TURN W TO NW LATE THU AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT 10 FT
SEAS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SAT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS SUN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. MODELS
ALSO DEPICT AN ARRIVING W SWELL LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY PUSH SEAS INTO THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN...WITH
SEAS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 170912
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
211 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE ALONG THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR NORTH OF KSLE. RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 22Z THU...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 01Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FT WITH
STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 11-12Z. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THU WITH PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH OPS AREA AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN TURN W TO NW LATE THU AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT 10 FT
SEAS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SAT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS SUN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. MODELS
ALSO DEPICT AN ARRIVING W SWELL LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY PUSH SEAS INTO THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN...WITH
SEAS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 170912
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
211 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE ALONG THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR NORTH OF KSLE. RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 22Z THU...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 01Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FT WITH
STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 11-12Z. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THU WITH PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH OPS AREA AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN TURN W TO NW LATE THU AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT 10 FT
SEAS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SAT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS SUN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. MODELS
ALSO DEPICT AN ARRIVING W SWELL LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY PUSH SEAS INTO THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN...WITH
SEAS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 170554
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave will continue to bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest this afternoon and evening before tapering off overnight.
A stronger system will result in widespread rain Thursday and
Thursday night, with breezy conditions Friday. At this time the
Easter Weekend looks to be mild and mainly dry. Showers will be
more prevalent for the first part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease the chances of precip along the
northeast Washington and decreased the amount of rain expected in
the Idaho Panhandle for tonight. The system that moved through
the region earlier this evening is now located over Montana and
the next system is currently slowly passing into the Cascades.
This is allowing a small ridge of drier air to build between the
two systems and decreasing the precip potential for most of the
Inland Northwest. High amount of upper level clouds will keep the
minimum temperatures pretty will in line with the previous
forecast. /JDC

&&

AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A wave pressing along the Cascades is
pushing moisture over and increasing cloud clover for the
TAF sites. This moisture is mainly upper level and not creating
any issues or precip for the sites. Cigs in these areas are
hovering around MVFR and will continue to as another more moist
system moves into the region around 18Z and bringing rain showers
to the Inland Northwest. The region can expect to be under the
influence of rain showers through the period. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  53  40  56  35  63 /  20  90 100  40   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  52  41  55  33  63 /  30  90 100  50  10   0
Pullman        41  58  41  53  34  63 /  10  60 100  30   0   0
Lewiston       43  64  45  59  38  69 /  20  40  90  20   0   0
Colville       38  56  41  61  32  68 /  30  90 100  30  10  10
Sandpoint      39  51  41  54  32  62 /  40  90 100  60  20  10
Kellogg        38  52  39  52  34  62 /  40  60 100  60  10   0
Moses Lake     46  61  42  64  36  69 /  10  60  50  10   0  10
Wenatchee      47  60  41  62  41  67 /  20  60  20  10   0  10
Omak           41  59  38  62  34  67 /  20  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 170416
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AND LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER GENERALLY WET. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET SNOW BUT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION IN THE PASSES. IT WILL BE
BREEZY THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT IN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THE MTNS. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES INLAND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY...THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER. THERE IS A SUGGESTION IN THE MODELS THAT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SCHNEIDER

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATED THAT
SEAS COULD REACH 15 TO 20 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES BEFORE
LATCHING ONTO THE MODEL SOLUTION. FOR NOW...HAVE CHOSEN TO SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND WENT WITH MARGINAL HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE ABOUT A FOOT TONIGHT...THEN RISE AN ADDITIONAL THREE FEET ON
THURSDAY WITH A CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT ONE AND A HALF INCHES.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER NEAR 1500 FEET WITH OVERCAST LAYER
3000-4000 FEET. LOCAL CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 2 TO
4 SM IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. MOUNTAINS REMAINING OBSCURED.

KSEA...A LITTLE BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS
NEAR 3000 FEET. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO 1000-2000 FEET OVERNIGHT
WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5 SM AT TIMES WITH THE RAIN PICKING UP AGAIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THU WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS ADMIRALTY
INLET...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE STRAIT
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND LOWER PRES
E OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE OR WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRI. EXPECT A STRONG COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FELTON
&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...
     ADMIRALTY INLET...EAST ENTRANCE OT THE STRAIT AND NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 170357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
852 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT.  MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY.  SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING THE NEXT
SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING
RAIN WAS REACHING THE NORTH COAST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES MAKING IT THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES.  THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT. RAIN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THU MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THE SYSTEM. 700
MB WIND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT CLOSE TO 40
KT OVER SW WASHINGTON.  A WET DAY BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL. THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR. ALSO A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY CLOSE TO THE
FRONT AT THE COAST AND INLAND BUT NOTHING EXTREME.  POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD.

SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF.  KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN TIER...WE RETURN TO A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE ELSEWHERE...AND THEREFORE NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RIGHT
AROUND 6000 FT.

ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF
OUR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BECOMES A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING FLOW OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AND LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...BUT REGARDLESS SHOULD
STILL SEE FOR SOME MODEST WARMING AND INCREASED SUNSHINE COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...WHICH IS ABOUT 60...AS THIGH SUN ANGLE. /KMD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW BUT SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THE DRY BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/NAM DRAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEAKEN THE FRONT AS IT COMES INLAND BUT STILL BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THE WEST AND NORTHERN TIER AND HOLD ONTO CHANCE ELSEWHERE UNTIL
TIMING ISSUES GET RESOLVED.

SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING "MOSTLY" DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY AS
THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO POINT THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND KEEPS ANY LIGHT PRECIP NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AFTER
THE FLOW AMPLIFIES...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEST AND BRING PERIODS OF COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. /KMD

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND...BUT MVFR NOW DOMINATING ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST...AND WILL PUSH INLAND
THROUGH 10Z. CIGS INLAND WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH WORST
CONDITIONS N OF KSLE. AFTER 12Z...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH 22Z...WITH AREAS OF PERSISTENT IFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ONSHORE NEAR 22Z THU. EXPECT MTNS TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT AFTER 08Z
AS STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS. LITTLE CHANGE THU...WITH PERSISTENT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OPS AREA AFTER 23Z THU
AFTERNOON...WITH TURN TO WESTERLY WINDS.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT STILL COULD SEE A LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT N OF
TILLAMOOK. SEAS HOLDING 6 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS COASTAL WATERS THU AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...S WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THU AM...THEN TURN W TO NW
LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD
COME UP A BIT MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS LATE THU AM THROUGH THU
 EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 170357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
852 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT.  MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY.  SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING THE NEXT
SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING
RAIN WAS REACHING THE NORTH COAST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES MAKING IT THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES.  THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT. RAIN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THU MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THE SYSTEM. 700
MB WIND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT CLOSE TO 40
KT OVER SW WASHINGTON.  A WET DAY BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL. THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR. ALSO A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY CLOSE TO THE
FRONT AT THE COAST AND INLAND BUT NOTHING EXTREME.  POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD.

SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF.  KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN TIER...WE RETURN TO A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE ELSEWHERE...AND THEREFORE NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RIGHT
AROUND 6000 FT.

ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF
OUR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BECOMES A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING FLOW OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AND LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...BUT REGARDLESS SHOULD
STILL SEE FOR SOME MODEST WARMING AND INCREASED SUNSHINE COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...WHICH IS ABOUT 60...AS THIGH SUN ANGLE. /KMD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW BUT SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THE DRY BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/NAM DRAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEAKEN THE FRONT AS IT COMES INLAND BUT STILL BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THE WEST AND NORTHERN TIER AND HOLD ONTO CHANCE ELSEWHERE UNTIL
TIMING ISSUES GET RESOLVED.

SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING "MOSTLY" DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY AS
THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO POINT THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND KEEPS ANY LIGHT PRECIP NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AFTER
THE FLOW AMPLIFIES...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEST AND BRING PERIODS OF COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. /KMD

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND...BUT MVFR NOW DOMINATING ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST...AND WILL PUSH INLAND
THROUGH 10Z. CIGS INLAND WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH WORST
CONDITIONS N OF KSLE. AFTER 12Z...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH 22Z...WITH AREAS OF PERSISTENT IFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ONSHORE NEAR 22Z THU. EXPECT MTNS TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT AFTER 08Z
AS STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS. LITTLE CHANGE THU...WITH PERSISTENT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OPS AREA AFTER 23Z THU
AFTERNOON...WITH TURN TO WESTERLY WINDS.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT STILL COULD SEE A LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT N OF
TILLAMOOK. SEAS HOLDING 6 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS COASTAL WATERS THU AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...S WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THU AM...THEN TURN W TO NW
LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD
COME UP A BIT MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS LATE THU AM THROUGH THU
 EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KOTX 170307
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
807 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave will continue to bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest this afternoon and evening before tapering off overnight.
A stronger system will result in widespread rain Thursday and
Thursday night, with breezy conditions Friday. At this time the
Easter Weekend looks to be mild and mainly dry. Showers will be
more prevalent for the first part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease the chances of precip along the
northeast Washington and decreased the amount of rain expected in
the Idaho Panhandle for tonight. The system that moved through
the region earlier this evening is now located over Montana and
the next system is currently slowly passing into the Cascades.
This is allowing a small ridge of drier air to build between the
two systems and decreasing the precip potential for most of the
Inland Northwest. High amount of upper level clouds will keep the
minimum temperatures pretty will in line with the previous
forecast. /JDC

&&

AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: The weak weather system is continuing to
move through the eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle, bringing
low cloud decks and rain showers to most of the locations in these
areas. Cigs in these areas are hovering around MVFR and will
continue to as another more moist system moves into the region
around 18Z and bringing rain showers to the Inland Northwest. A
break in the rainshowers is expected for the late evening, early
morning hours as dry low level air makes a brief appearance
between the two systems. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  53  40  56  35  63 /  20  90 100  40   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  52  41  55  33  63 /  30  90 100  50  10   0
Pullman        41  58  41  53  34  63 /  10  60 100  30   0   0
Lewiston       43  64  45  59  38  69 /  20  40  90  20   0   0
Colville       38  56  41  61  32  68 /  30  90 100  30  10  10
Sandpoint      39  51  41  54  32  62 /  40  90 100  60  20  10
Kellogg        38  52  39  52  34  62 /  40  60 100  60  10   0
Moses Lake     46  61  42  64  36  69 /  10  60  50  10   0  10
Wenatchee      47  60  41  62  41  67 /  20  60  20  10   0  10
Omak           41  59  38  62  34  67 /  20  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 170215
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
714 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave will continue to bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest this afternoon and evening before tapering off overnight.
A stronger system will result in widespread rain Thursday and
Thursday night, with breezy conditions Friday. At this time the
Easter Weekend looks to be mild and mainly dry. Showers will be
more prevalent for the first part of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: The stratiform showers from earlier today has now
transitioned to more of a convective regime as we move into the
afternoon hours. This has resulted in more spotty showers versus
the widespread nature we saw this morning. Some showers have
produced brief periods of light to moderate rain, but totals have
still remained light. As we continue into the afternoon and early
evening hours I expect the showers to move to the NE being confined
to mainly the NE mountains of WA and the Panhandle by this
evening. With convective parameters weak, the showers will come to
an end rather quickly this evening as sun sets and the atmosphere
stabilizes. This evening into tonight will bring a brief break in
the action as we have some weak ridging in place. Although clouds
will remain firmly in place, the chances for precip diminishes.

Tonight features the mentioned break period as we await the
arrival of next system set to move in tomorrow. The precip looks
to move from west to east reaching the Cascades early Thursday
morning. This system looks to be much moister than the one today
leading to a much better chance of widespread precipitation
Thursday. Temperatures tonight will remain milder than last night
as cloud cover will limit radiative cooling. /Fliehman

Thursday to Friday night: Precipitation comes to the Inland NW as
a strong frontal wave migrates across the region through Thursday
night. This is followed by more showery and breezy conditions
Friday.

First Thursday morning a warm front is draped across the region,
while the cold front and it supporting upper wave approach the
coast. Weak to moderate isentropic ascent in the 290-300K layer is
directed across the eastern third of WA and north ID. Initially
condensation pressure deficits show the best saturation and
highest precipitation chances lay over northern mountains and
Cascades. However between 8 AM-12 PM the atmosphere begins to
saturate further south. The system taps a subtropical moisture
plume, with PWATs rising to 0.60-0.80 inches (or about 180-240% of
normal). This will lead to a gradual expansion of in precipitation
across the Basin. Initially precipitation looks light, save for
near the Cascade crest and perhaps the northern mountains. The LC-
Valley toward the Camas Prairie and possibly lower Shoshone county
may remain dry.

Then between later Thursday afternoon and Friday morning the cold
front moves from the Cascades to the western Montana, with the
supporting upper wave on its heels. This is when the highest
precipitation chances and amounts develop, with deep-layer lift
coming to the 850mb-500mb layer. There are lingering model
differences as to how quick the front and upper wave pass. This
has implications on how quickly precipitation decreases from the
west, i.e. toward late evening or not until the later overnight
hours going into Friday morning. Either way much of the region
stands a pretty good chance of seeing wetting rains (over a tenth
of an inch). Some areas may pick up between 0.30 to 0.75 inches of
rain, especially northeast WA and the ID Panhandle and the
Cascades.

There is a thunder potential with this system too. In the late
afternoon and evening hours models shows some uncapped CAPE across
the upper Columbia Basin through northeast WA mountains, with some
negative dtheta/dz lapse rates. Overnight into Friday this shifts
to northeast WA and north ID overnight. Confidence is low with
regard to the available potential instability. However a pocket of
-20 to -25C 500mb come across the region and the system has
impressive lift. So I added a slight chance of thunderstorms
across these areas.

Temperatures are expected to be held back by the clouds and
precipitation Thursday, with highs expected to be below normal.
Temperatures in some areas may struggle to get to the 50. Winds
will also increase through by Thursday afternoon and remain in the
breezy category through the night, thanks to the increased
gradient and mixing with the incoming system.

From Friday to Friday night a trough trailing the exiting system
sags across the northern Rockies. With low-grade CAPE and
marginally negative LI values across northeast WA and north ID in
the afternoon and very early evening, in conjunction with a core
of colder 500 mb temperatures around -28 to -30C), this will mean
the threat of isolated to scattered showers. The modest mixing and
still tight gradient behind the exiting low will also mean breezy
to locally windy conditions. Depending on how much rain falls
prior to this period, these winds could lead to some blowing dust.
The best threat will be out toward the deeper Basin, where lighter
rainfall amounts are more likely with the Thursday system.
Otherwise look for a mix of sun and clouds, especially in the
afternoon. The overall shower threat and breezy conditions will
abate rapidly after sunset. I did add a few areas of patchy fog
overnight into early Friday morning across the sheltered mountain
valleys across northeast WA and north ID. The recent precipitation
moistening the BL and low level high pressure stretching across
this region will bring this threat. Temperatures will remain
slightly below normal. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure will bring
dry conditions to the region on Saturday then a shortwave trough
will move across the northern tier with a chance of showers north
of Interstate 90 early on Sunday. For the start of the work week
the region will be in moist southwest flow aloft that will keep
unsettled weather in the forecast through Wednesday. Southerly
flow will allow temperatures to remain on the warm side of climo
through Monday, then an upper low will move over the region with
cooler and showery weather expected through midweek. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The weak weather system is continuing to move through
the eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle, bringing low cloud
decks and rain showers to most of the locations in these areas.
Cigs in these areas are hovering around MVFR and will continue to
as another more moist system moves into the region around 18Z and
bringing rain showers to the Inland Northwest. A break in the
rainshowers is expected for the late evening, early morning hours
as dry low level air makes a brief appearance between the two
systems. /JDC



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  53  40  56  35  63 /  20  90 100  40   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  52  41  55  33  63 /  40  90 100  50  10   0
Pullman        41  58  41  53  34  63 /  20  60 100  30   0   0
Lewiston       43  64  45  59  38  69 /  20  40  90  20   0   0
Colville       38  56  41  61  32  68 /  30  90 100  30  10  10
Sandpoint      39  51  41  54  32  62 /  30  90 100  60  20  10
Kellogg        38  52  39  52  34  62 /  40  60 100  60  10   0
Moses Lake     46  61  42  64  36  69 /  10  60  50  10   0  10
Wenatchee      47  60  41  62  41  67 /  20  60  20  10   0  10
Omak           41  59  38  62  34  67 /  20  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 162354
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
454 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MILD AND MAINLY DRY. SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT: THE STRATIFORM SHOWERS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW
TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A CONVECTIVE REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS VERSUS
THE WIDESPREAD NATURE WE SAW THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, BUT TOTALS HAVE
STILL REMAINED LIGHT. AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS I EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE TO THE NE BEING CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE NE MOUNTAINS OF WA AND THE PANHANDLE BY THIS
EVENING. WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WEAK, THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO
AN END RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS SUN SETS AND THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE ACTION AS WE HAVE SOME WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT FEATURES THE MENTIONED BREAK PERIOD AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF NEXT SYSTEM SET TO MOVE IN TOMORROW. THE PRECIP LOOKS
TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST REACHING THE CASCADES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH MOISTER THAN THE ONE TODAY
LEADING TO A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING. /FLIEHMAN

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: PRECIPITATION COMES TO THE INLAND NW AS
A STRONG FRONTAL WAVE MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY.

FIRST THURSDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION,
WHILE THE COLD FRONT AND IT SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE APPROACH THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 290-300K LAYER IS
DIRECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND NORTH ID. INITIALLY
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST SATURATION AND
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES LAY OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
CASCADES. HOWEVER BETWEEN 8 AM-12 PM THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO
SATURATE FURTHER SOUTH. THE SYSTEM TAPS A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME, WITH PWATS RISING TO 0.60-0.80 INCHES (OR ABOUT 180-240% OF
NORMAL). THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE BASIN. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIGHT, SAVE FOR
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE LC-
VALLEY TOWARD THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND POSSIBLY LOWER SHOSHONE COUNTY
MAY REMAIN DRY.

THEN BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FROM THE CASCADES TO THE WESTERN MONTANA, WITH THE
SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE ON ITS HEELS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS DEVELOP, WITH DEEP-LAYER LIFT
COMING TO THE 850MB-500MB LAYER. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICK THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE PASS. THIS
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION DECREASES FROM THE
WEST, I.E. TOWARD LATE EVENING OR NOT UNTIL THE LATER OVERNIGHT
HOURS GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY MUCH OF THE REGION
STANDS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING WETTING RAINS (OVER A TENTH
OF AN INCH). SOME AREAS MAY PICK UP BETWEEN 0.30 TO 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE AND THE
CASCADES.

THERE IS A THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM TOO. IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MODELS SHOWS SOME UNCAPPED CAPE ACROSS
THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH NORTHEAST WA MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME
NEGATIVE DTHETA/DZ LAPSE RATES. OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY THIS SHIFTS
TO NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
REGARD TO THE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER A POCKET OF
-20 TO -25C 500MB COME ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPRESSIVE LIFT. SO I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HELD BACK BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE 50. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE
BREEZY CATEGORY THROUGH THE NIGHT, THANKS TO THE INCREASED
GRADIENT AND MIXING WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM.

FROM FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT A TROUGH TRAILING THE EXITING SYSTEM
SAGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH LOW-GRADE CAPE AND
MARGINALLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID IN
THE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CORE
OF COLDER 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -28 TO -30C), THIS WILL MEAN
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE MODEST MIXING AND
STILL TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALSO MEAN BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
PRIOR TO THIS PERIOD, THESE WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME BLOWING DUST.
THE BEST THREAT WILL BE OUT TOWARD THE DEEPER BASIN, WHERE LIGHTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL SHOWER THREAT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
ABATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. I DID ADD A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID. THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
MOISTENING THE BL AND LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS
THIS REGION WILL BRING THIS THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /J. COTE`

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 EARLY ON SUNDAY. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. /KELCH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO PANHANDLE BRINGING LOW
CLOUD DECKS AND RAINSHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS. RIGS IN
THESE AREAS ARE HOVERING AROUND MVFR AND WILL CONTINUE TO AS ANOTHER
MORE MOIST SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND BRINGING
RAINSHOWERS TO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A BREAK IN THE RAINSHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE EVENING, EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.
/JDC



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        41  53  40  56  35  63 /  20  90 100  40   0   0
COEUR D`ALENE  39  52  41  55  33  63 /  40  90 100  50  10   0
PULLMAN        41  58  41  53  34  63 /  20  60 100  30   0   0
LEWISTON       43  64  45  59  38  69 /  20  40  90  20   0   0
COLVILLE       38  56  41  61  32  68 /  30  90 100  30  10  10
SANDPOINT      39  51  41  54  32  62 /  30  90 100  60  20  10
KELLOGG        38  52  39  52  34  62 /  40  60 100  60  10   0
MOSES LAKE     46  61  42  64  36  69 /  10  60  50  10   0  10
WENATCHEE      47  60  41  62  41  67 /  20  60  20  10   0  10
OMAK           41  59  38  62  34  67 /  20  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 162201
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AND LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER GENERALLY WET. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET SEVERAL INCHES
OF NEW SNOW BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR MUCH SNOW
IN THE PASSES OR  ROADS UP TO THE SKI AREAS.

IT WILL BE BREEZY MOST AREAS THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT IN
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL TAPER THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BECOME
MOSTLY CONFINED TO A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE
A DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A SECOND FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN REACHING THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN SPREADING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES INLAND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY...THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER. THERE IS A SUGGESTION IN THE MODELS THAT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SCHNEIDER

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATED THAT
SEAS COULD REACH 15 TO 20 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES BEFORE
LATCHING ONTO THE MODEL SOLUTION. FOR NOW...HAVE CHOSEN TO SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND WENT WITH MARGINAL HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE ABOUT A FOOT TONIGHT...THEN RISE AN ADDITIONAL THREE FEET ON
THURSDAY WITH A CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT ONE AND A HALF INCHES.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY WET OR
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT BUT THEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST THU
MORNING...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROF OFFSHORE TO APPROACH THE WA COAST.
STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THU AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE OR SLY FLOW. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THU AFTERNOON.

CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE THRU
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS BLO 1K FT TO DEVELOP AFTER
0600 UTC. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF VSBYS IN THE 2-4SM RANGE DUE
TO RAIN AND/OR FOG. THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD.

KSEA...EXPECT CIGS TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH  BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 0600 UTC...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE. ALSO...ANTICIPATE THE VSBY TO LOWER
TO 5 OR 6SM DUE TO -RA BR AFTER 0600 UTC. SLY WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THU.
HIGH PRES ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE OR WESTERLY FLOW ON FRI.
EXPECT A STRONG COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
      STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS...PUGET
      SOUND/HOOD CANAL...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KPQR 162154
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH TO DAMPEN
THE PAVEMENT. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH BUT
MAINLY THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EVENING WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOWER LEVEL WARM
FRONT NORTH AND KEEPS AREAS FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD GENERALLY DRY.

THE MOST ORGANIZED WARM PROCESS RAIN OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1"PW
EMBEDDED IN THE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS IN THE NW
CORNER...BUT THE NORTHERN HALF STILL SEEING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
PW VALUES ARE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL...SO A BIT OF A WET DAY TOMORROW BUT NOTHING TOO
EXTREME...WITH A BURST OF MORE MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE
FRONT LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH COUPLED FORCING FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRIEFLY STEEPEN SOME. SNOW
LEVELS DO NOT GET DOWN TO THE PASSES UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF.  KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN TIER...WE RETURN TO A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE ELSEWHERE...AND THEREFORE NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RIGHT
AROUND 6000 FT.

ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF
OUR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BECOMES A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING FLOW OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AND LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...BUT REGARDLESS SHOULD
STILL SEE FOR SOME MODEST WARMING AND INCREASED SUNSHINE COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...WHICH IS ABOUT 60...AS THIGH SUN ANGLE. /KMD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW BUT SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THE DRY BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/NAM DRAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEAKEN THE FRONT AS IT COMES INLAND BUT STILL BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THE WEST AND NORTHERN TIER AND HOLD ONTO CHANCE ELSEWHERE UNTIL
TIMING ISSUES GET RESOLVED.

SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING "MOSTLY" DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY AS
THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO POINT THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND KEEPS ANY LIGHT PRECIP NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AFTER
THE FLOW AMPLIFIES...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEST AND BRING PERIODS OF COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. /KMD


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
AM COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR ALL DAY THU WITH
MTNS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS IN COAST RANGE AND COASTAL AREAS THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT LATER
TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS COLD FRONT PUSHES RAIN INTO OPS AREA.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. JUST
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO KEEP S WINDS GUSTY UP TO 25 KT N OF
TILLAMOOK THIS EVENING. SEAS HOLDING 6 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS REGION THU AND THU EVENING. WILL
SEE S WINDS PICK UP AGAIN THU AM...THEN TURN W TO NW THU EVENING
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI.      WILDEROCK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS EVENING FOR N COASTAL
 WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THU AND THU EVENING ON ALL COASTAL
     WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS FROM 5
     AM TO 9 AM THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 162154
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH TO DAMPEN
THE PAVEMENT. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH BUT
MAINLY THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EVENING WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOWER LEVEL WARM
FRONT NORTH AND KEEPS AREAS FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD GENERALLY DRY.

THE MOST ORGANIZED WARM PROCESS RAIN OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1"PW
EMBEDDED IN THE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS IN THE NW
CORNER...BUT THE NORTHERN HALF STILL SEEING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
PW VALUES ARE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL...SO A BIT OF A WET DAY TOMORROW BUT NOTHING TOO
EXTREME...WITH A BURST OF MORE MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE
FRONT LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH COUPLED FORCING FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRIEFLY STEEPEN SOME. SNOW
LEVELS DO NOT GET DOWN TO THE PASSES UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF.  KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN TIER...WE RETURN TO A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE ELSEWHERE...AND THEREFORE NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RIGHT
AROUND 6000 FT.

ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF
OUR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BECOMES A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING FLOW OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AND LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...BUT REGARDLESS SHOULD
STILL SEE FOR SOME MODEST WARMING AND INCREASED SUNSHINE COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...WHICH IS ABOUT 60...AS THIGH SUN ANGLE. /KMD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW BUT SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THE DRY BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/NAM DRAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEAKEN THE FRONT AS IT COMES INLAND BUT STILL BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THE WEST AND NORTHERN TIER AND HOLD ONTO CHANCE ELSEWHERE UNTIL
TIMING ISSUES GET RESOLVED.

SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING "MOSTLY" DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY AS
THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO POINT THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND KEEPS ANY LIGHT PRECIP NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AFTER
THE FLOW AMPLIFIES...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEST AND BRING PERIODS OF COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. /KMD


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
AM COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR ALL DAY THU WITH
MTNS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS IN COAST RANGE AND COASTAL AREAS THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT LATER
TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS COLD FRONT PUSHES RAIN INTO OPS AREA.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. JUST
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO KEEP S WINDS GUSTY UP TO 25 KT N OF
TILLAMOOK THIS EVENING. SEAS HOLDING 6 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS REGION THU AND THU EVENING. WILL
SEE S WINDS PICK UP AGAIN THU AM...THEN TURN W TO NW THU EVENING
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI.      WILDEROCK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS EVENING FOR N COASTAL
 WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THU AND THU EVENING ON ALL COASTAL
     WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS FROM 5
     AM TO 9 AM THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KOTX 162125
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave will continue to bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest this afternoon and evening before tapering off overnight.
A stronger system will result in widespread rain Thursday and
Thursday night, with breezy conditions Friday. At this time the
Easter Weekend looks to be mild and mainly dry. Showers will be
more prevalent for the first part of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: The stratiform showers from earlier today has now
transitioned to more of a convective regime as we move into the
afternoon hours. This has resulted in more spotty showers versus
the widespread nature we saw this morning. Some showers have
produced brief periods of light to moderate rain, but totals have
still remained light. As we continue into the afternoon and early
evening hours I expect the showers to move to the NE being confined
to mainly the NE mountains of WA and the Panhandle by this
evening. With convective parameters weak, the showers will come to
an end rather quickly this evening as sun sets and the atmosphere
stabilizes. This evening into tonight will bring a brief break in
the action as we have some weak ridging in place. Although clouds
will remain firmly in place, the chances for precip diminishes.

Tonight features the mentioned break period as we await the
arrival of next system set to move in tomorrow. The precip looks
to move from west to east reaching the Cascades early Thursday
morning. This system looks to be much moister than the one today
leading to a much better chance of widespread precipitation
Thursday. Temperatures tonight will remain milder than last night
as cloud cover will limit radiative cooling. /Fliehman

Thursday to Friday night: Precipitation comes to the Inland NW as
a strong frontal wave migrates across the region through Thursday
night. This is followed by more showery and breezy conditions
Friday.

First Thursday morning a warm front is draped across the region,
while the cold front and it supporting upper wave approach the
coast. Weak to moderate isentropic ascent in the 290-300K layer is
directed across the eastern third of WA and north ID. Initially
condensation pressure deficits show the best saturation and
highest precipitation chances lay over northern mountains and
Cascades. However between 8 AM-12 PM the atmosphere begins to
saturate further south. The system taps a subtropical moisture
plume, with PWATs rising to 0.60-0.80 inches (or about 180-240% of
normal). This will lead to a gradual expansion of in precipitation
across the Basin. Initially precipitation looks light, save for
near the Cascade crest and perhaps the northern mountains. The LC-
Valley toward the Camas Prairie and possibly lower Shoshone county
may remain dry.

Then between later Thursday afternoon and Friday morning the cold
front moves from the Cascades to the western Montana, with the
supporting upper wave on its heels. This is when the highest
precipitation chances and amounts develop, with deep-layer lift
coming to the 850mb-500mb layer. There are lingering model
differences as to how quick the front and upper wave pass. This
has implications on how quickly precipitation decreases from the
west, i.e. toward late evening or not until the later overnight
hours going into Friday morning. Either way much of the region
stands a pretty good chance of seeing wetting rains (over a tenth
of an inch). Some areas may pick up between 0.30 to 0.75 inches of
rain, especially northeast WA and the ID Panhandle and the
Cascades.

There is a thunder potential with this system too. In the late
afternoon and evening hours models shows some uncapped CAPE across
the upper Columbia Basin through northeast WA mountains, with some
negative dtheta/dz lapse rates. Overnight into Friday this shifts
to northeast WA and north ID overnight. Confidence is low with
regard to the available potential instability. However a pocket of
-20 to -25C 500mb come across the region and the system has
impressive lift. So I added a slight chance of thunderstorms
across these areas.

Temperatures are expected to be held back by the clouds and
precipitation Thursday, with highs expected to be below normal.
Temperatures in some areas may struggle to get to the 50. Winds
will also increase through by Thursday afternoon and remain in the
breezy category through the night, thanks to the increased
gradient and mixing with the incoming system.

From Friday to Friday night a trough trailing the exiting system
sags across the northern Rockies. With low-grade CAPE and
marginally negative LI values across northeast WA and north ID in
the afternoon and very early evening, in conjunction with a core
of colder 500 mb temperatures around -28 to -30C), this will mean
the threat of isolated to scattered showers. The modest mixing and
still tight gradient behind the exiting low will also mean breezy
to locally windy conditions. Depending on how much rain falls
prior to this period, these winds could lead to some blowing dust.
The best threat will be out toward the deeper Basin, where lighter
rainfall amounts are more likely with the Thursday system.
Otherwise look for a mix of sun and clouds, especially in the
afternoon. The overall shower threat and breezy conditions will
abate rapidly after sunset. I did add a few areas of patchy fog
overnight into early Friday morning across the sheltered mountain
valleys across northeast WA and north ID. The recent precipitation
moistening the BL and low level high pressure stretching across
this region will bring this threat. Temperatures will remain
slightly below normal. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure will bring
dry conditions to the region on Saturday then a shortwave trough
will move across the northern tier with a chance of showers north
of Interstate 90 early on Sunday. For the start of the work week
the region will be in moist southwest flow aloft that will keep
unsettled weather in the forecast through Wednesday. Southerly
flow will allow temperatures to remain on the warm side of climo
through Monday, then an upper low will move over the region with
cooler and showery weather expected through midweek. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A weak weather system is moving across the eastern third
of WA and the ID Panhandle this morning resulting in lowering
Cigs and light rain across these areas. Cigs for the GEG-SFF-COE
corridor have now dropped to MVFR, but are expected to rise back
to VFR this afternoon after the wave passes. Light stratiform rain
will become more convective this afternoon with rain showers
possible at the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. Moving
into this evening will bring an end to precip chances leaving
mostly cloudy to overcast VFR conditions for the region. Tomorrow
morning we will see the next wave start to enter the region from
west to east bringing lower Cigs (likely MVFR for some) and a
higher chance for widespread precip. /Fliehman



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  53  40  56  35  63 /  20  90 100  40   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  52  41  55  33  63 /  40  90 100  50  10   0
Pullman        41  58  41  53  34  63 /  20  60 100  30   0   0
Lewiston       43  64  45  59  38  69 /  20  40  90  20   0   0
Colville       38  56  41  61  32  68 /  30  90 100  30  10  10
Sandpoint      39  51  41  54  32  62 /  30  90 100  60  20  10
Kellogg        38  52  39  52  34  62 /  40  60 100  60  10   0
Moses Lake     46  61  42  64  36  69 /  10  60  50  10   0  10
Wenatchee      47  60  41  62  41  67 /  20  60  20  10   0  10
Omak           41  59  38  62  34  67 /  20  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





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