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000
FXUS66 KOTX 220011
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
511 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to east this evening, leaving only some isolated
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. From late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, the next frontal wave and round of precipitation
comes through. The active pattern continues into early next week,
with the potential for more widespread rain late Friday into
Saturday, then again late Monday into next Tuesday, as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...A MOIST PACIFIC STORM WITH SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTIONS TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

Tonight through Wednesday: Satellite imagery shows a deep upper
level low pressure system circulating in the Gulf Alaska. Water
vapor imagery shows a deep fetch of moisture extending out along
40N to an area of sub-tropical convection in the central Pacific.
Model guidance indicates P-wats of up around 1.25 inches directed
toward the Pacific Northwest. Much of this moisture content will
be squeezed out along the windward slopes of the northern Cascade
Mtns, but more than enough of this moisture is expected to
translate east of the Cascades for soaking rains across much of
the region beginning tonight.

The warm front shows up rather nicely on satellite, which
currently is just off the WA/OR coast. There is a good amount of
enhancement on both the water vapor and IR satellite imagery in
the warm sector of the low behind the leading edge of the warm
front. This will be the area to keep an eye on trough tonight for
periods of moderate to heavy rain. Much of this rainfall will
remain along the Cascade crest this evening into the early
portions of the overnight period. This moisture will begin to
push east of the Cascade Mtns early Wednesday morning. Strong
isentropic ascent will occur across the northwestern portion of
the forecast area with much of the precip falling northwest of a
line from about Ritzville to Sandpoint. Much of the southeastern
portion of the forecast area will have to wait for rain until the
cold front pushes further onshore after tomorrow afternoon.

*Rain Amounts: Easterly to southeasterly winds at low levels will
 result in good upslope flow into the East Slopes of the Northern
 Cascades over into the Okanogan Highlands. These areas are
 expected to see a range of 0.75-1.50 inches of rainfall over a 24
 hour period tonight through Wednesday. Higher amounts closer to 2
 inches will be possible up near the Cascade crest. The Wenatchee
 Area, Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Vly will see rainfall
 amounts closer to a half of an inch over this period; and the
 Moses Lake Area, Upper Columbia Basin into the Northeast Mtns
 will see rainfall amounts between 0.10 to around 0.25 inches
 through Wednesday.

*Impacts: There is a small chance for some rises to small streams
 and mud slides due to heavy rain. The primary area of concern
 will be along the East Slopes of the Northern Cascade Mtns and
 primarily in or near recent burn scars. Rainfall intensity will
 likely not be strong enough for Flash Flooding concerns; however,
 rainfall on recent burn scars will likely lead to more rapid
 runoff than normally observed in these kind of events.

*Snow: Snow levels will be up around 6,500 feet through this
 period. This will result in snow only up over the highest peaks
 and primarily over the peaks in the Cascades.

*Winds: A southeasterly surface pressure gradient will tighten tonight
 into Wednesday. Winds at 850 mbs will increase up to around 30-35
 kts. Since the region will be exclusively in the warm sector
 during this period, mixing will be limited somewhat; this will be
 especially so in locations where it is raining. A better chance
 for better mixing will be across the basin over into the Central
 Panhandle Mtns where the rain will take a bit longer to form.
 This is expected to result in breezy southerly winds with
 sustained speeds of around 15-20 mph and gusts up to around 25-30
 mph.

*Temperatures: Expect cooler temperatures with the rain to across
 the northwest portion of the forecast area on Wednesday. High
 temperatures will be more mild across the southeast portion of
 the forecast area and about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. /SVH

Wednesday night through Friday night: An active weather pattern
continues with a parade of systems tapping some subtropical
moisture. First from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning a
cold front pushes across the Cascades and advances toward Idaho
overnight into Thursday morning. Driven east by a mid-level
disturbance and a 130kt jet stream, this system is featuring
modest lift. The subtropical moisture plume directed into the
region ahead of this boundary pushes PWATs up toward 0.60 to 1.0
inches (or 150-240% of normal). This combination of lift and
moisture will bring likely rain between Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning across a large portion of eastern WA and north
ID. The lowest threat will be toward the L-C Valley and Camas
Prairie, especially before Thursday morning, and chances will
begin to wane in the lee of the Cascades late in the evening to
overnight.

From Thursday morning to early Thursday evening the frontal
boundary stalls near the central ID/MT border through northeast
OR, just south of Lookout Pass to the Blue Mountains, with the jet
just north of the front. Regional PWATs drop to between 0.40 to
0.70 inches (or 100-170% of normal). This is still a decent amount
of moisture. The proximity of the front and the enhanced lift near
the LFQ of the jet will keep precipitation likely across the Idaho
Panhandle through the Blues and near the Cascade crest. Chances
will also remain moderately high across the eastern third of WA,
with the proximity of that LFQ of the jet, but will be waning in
the lee of the Cascades.

From late Thursday evening to Friday morning the atmosphere dries
out a little more, with the core of deeper plume of moisture
briefly sagging toward southern Oregon. This plus weak shortwave
ridging nosing in ahead of the next system will further decrease
the precipitation through this period. The best chances of
precipitation during this time frame will be near southeast WA and
the ID Panhandle mountains, as well as near the Cascade crest.

From Friday afternoon through Friday night the next low pressure
system deepens as it lifts north from the CA/OR coast toward the
WA/OR coast. With the increased southerly flow a warm front lifts
into the region, with the plume of subtropical moisture coming
back north with it. Models suggest this should evolve as a band of
precipitation which envelopes areas along the WA/OR border through
the Idaho Clearwaters by later Friday afternoon, then lifts north
across much of remainder of central and eastern WA and north ID
early Friday evening, before the focus lifts toward the northern
mountains and backs against the Cascades overnight into Saturday
morning. So some modest precipitation amounts are possible:
potentially between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with local
amounts over a half inch to an inch toward the Cascades. This
could mean some slow rises on creeks and streams and other waterways
near the Cascades, with minor mudslides/debris flows. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Tuesday...A trough off the coast starts moving
in on Saturday with a decent cold front, gusty winds with near
or above normal temperatures and higher mountain snow. Sunday
will see a high pressure ridge building in for a brief break in
the weather. Then for Monday into Monday night, there will be the
next wet weather system on the way with Pacific moisture moving
in. After that it will be a fairly active weather pattern in the
future with multiple storm systems from the west especially for
the mountains but overall, no severe weather is expected for this
time of the forecast. /TC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Low level flow will back to out of the southeast
overnight as a moist Pacific storm system approaches the region.
Strong warm air advection should clear out the low clouds tonight
with rainfall forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by
Wednesday morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing
after 12Z with cigs lowering to MVFR category. Light rain will
spread east to KMWH around 16Z, then to remaining TAF sites after
20Z. Low level wind shear will become a concern as well with
winds increasing significantly off the surface and veering to out
of the southwest, however, low level wind shear is not mentioned
in the TAFs as it does not look to be strong enough. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  59  48  59  43  56 /  10  60  90  50  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  40  57  45  58  41  55 /  10  40  90  70  30  40
Pullman        43  62  47  59  45  58 /   0  20  70  60  30  50
Lewiston       44  66  51  63  48  61 /   0  10  30  60  40  60
Colville       44  54  46  57  41  56 /  20 100 100  60  20  20
Sandpoint      40  55  43  55  38  55 /  10  60  90  70  40  20
Kellogg        38  57  45  54  41  53 /  10  10  80  80  60  40
Moses Lake     49  59  48  64  43  58 /  20  90  90  20  10  50
Wenatchee      48  55  48  61  44  55 /  70 100  80  30  10  60
Omak           46  52  45  59  40  55 /  80 100 100  40  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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000
FXUS66 KSEW 212238
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO THE
COAST TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TO
THE NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE RAIN AND WINDY WEATHER TO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE
BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT SITS FROM CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
LIGHTNING BEING OBSERVED 40 TO 70 MILES OFF THE NORTH COAST. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE NORTH COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO BECOME A BIT MORE STABLE LATER TONIGHT AS
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING DEVELOPING LOW.
A DEVELOPING WAVE NOW SEEN NEAR 46N 142W WILL DEVELOP TO A 992 MB
LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT.
THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB
JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH
NOW SEEN NEAR 37N 165E.

TWO ISSUES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LOW TONIGHT...WIND AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO REACH 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 18Z NAM12 SHOWS 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING OLYMPICS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z WRFGFS
SHOWS UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
THIS HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND
STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SSW WINDS 55 KT AT 850 MB. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER
THE NORTH CASCADES...AND THE LATEST WRFGFS SHOWS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE MOUNT BAKER AREA IN WHATCOM COUNTY
AND THE MOUNTAINS NW OF DARRINGTON.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND EXTENDED TO INCLUDE
RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE NORTH CASCADES FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY
NORTHWARD MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD REACHING FROM THE N
CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST WED AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN BECOMES
SHOWERY FROM THE NW WED EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU IN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER DEEP LOW
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
PHASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY
IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
EVENTUAL STRUCTURE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND WHERE IT MOVES
INLAND ON SATURDAY. IT IS A GOOD BET THAT SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND
WINDY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES INLAND SOMEWHERE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY BRINGING WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DECREASE ON SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WARM FRONT
AND LOW APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODEL DETAILS DIFFER...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WET AND BREEZY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AT LEAST
HIGHER PASS LEVEL MIDWEEK AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS COOLING
OFF WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 50S. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND FOR SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD
IN THE INTERIOR FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS LIKELY TO SEE MODERATE FLOODING. IF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SEEN IN THE WRFGFS 4KM VERIFIES...THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER AT POTLATCH COULD SEE MAJOR FLOODING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS SUCH AS THE
QUINAULT...CLEARWATER...HOH...AND BOGACHIEL COULD SEE MINOR
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON LATEST RAINFALL FORECASTS...PORTIONS OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
RIVER IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY AND THE NOOKSACK RIVER IN WHATCOM COUNTY
COULD SEE MINOR FLOODING LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RATHER
INTENSE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND
UNCONTROLLED RIVERS IN THE NORTH CASCADES TO RISE RAPIDLY AND
POSSIBLY FLOOD.  ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUN EAST OF PUGET
SOUND THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD FROM OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS
RAIN DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER/SMR

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT AND PUGET SOUND.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER/SMR


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     FLOOD WATCH SNOHOMISH...SKAGIT...AND WHATCOM COUNTIES MIDDAY
      WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
      PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 212238
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO THE
COAST TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TO
THE NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE RAIN AND WINDY WEATHER TO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE
BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT SITS FROM CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
LIGHTNING BEING OBSERVED 40 TO 70 MILES OFF THE NORTH COAST. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE NORTH COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO BECOME A BIT MORE STABLE LATER TONIGHT AS
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING DEVELOPING LOW.
A DEVELOPING WAVE NOW SEEN NEAR 46N 142W WILL DEVELOP TO A 992 MB
LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT.
THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB
JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH
NOW SEEN NEAR 37N 165E.

TWO ISSUES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LOW TONIGHT...WIND AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO REACH 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 18Z NAM12 SHOWS 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING OLYMPICS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z WRFGFS
SHOWS UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
THIS HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND
STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SSW WINDS 55 KT AT 850 MB. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER
THE NORTH CASCADES...AND THE LATEST WRFGFS SHOWS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE MOUNT BAKER AREA IN WHATCOM COUNTY
AND THE MOUNTAINS NW OF DARRINGTON.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND EXTENDED TO INCLUDE
RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE NORTH CASCADES FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY
NORTHWARD MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD REACHING FROM THE N
CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST WED AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN BECOMES
SHOWERY FROM THE NW WED EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU IN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER DEEP LOW
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
PHASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY
IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
EVENTUAL STRUCTURE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND WHERE IT MOVES
INLAND ON SATURDAY. IT IS A GOOD BET THAT SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND
WINDY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES INLAND SOMEWHERE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY BRINGING WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DECREASE ON SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WARM FRONT
AND LOW APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODEL DETAILS DIFFER...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WET AND BREEZY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AT LEAST
HIGHER PASS LEVEL MIDWEEK AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS COOLING
OFF WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 50S. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND FOR SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD
IN THE INTERIOR FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS LIKELY TO SEE MODERATE FLOODING. IF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SEEN IN THE WRFGFS 4KM VERIFIES...THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER AT POTLATCH COULD SEE MAJOR FLOODING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS SUCH AS THE
QUINAULT...CLEARWATER...HOH...AND BOGACHIEL COULD SEE MINOR
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON LATEST RAINFALL FORECASTS...PORTIONS OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
RIVER IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY AND THE NOOKSACK RIVER IN WHATCOM COUNTY
COULD SEE MINOR FLOODING LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RATHER
INTENSE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND
UNCONTROLLED RIVERS IN THE NORTH CASCADES TO RISE RAPIDLY AND
POSSIBLY FLOOD.  ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUN EAST OF PUGET
SOUND THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD FROM OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS
RAIN DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER/SMR

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT AND PUGET SOUND.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER/SMR


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     FLOOD WATCH SNOHOMISH...SKAGIT...AND WHATCOM COUNTIES MIDDAY
      WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
      PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 212233
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
333 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG AND BROAD UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO APPROACH. SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE
AND SURFACE LOW GENERATING A BAROCLINIC LEAF CENTERED AROUND 130W
AND NEARLY DUE WEST. AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF POSITIVE LIGHTNING IS
BEING GENERATED THROUGH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LOW. THIS LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW...ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAKER AND A BIT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING WHILE THE GFS HAS KEPT IT MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE. HAVE DECIDED
TO MAINTAIN TONIGHTS FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS BUT FEEL ONLY THE ACTUAL
HIGHER HEADLANDS SUCH AS CAPE FOULWEATHER...CAPE LOOKOUT...AND CAPE
DISAPPOINTMENT WILL REALIZE GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH. THE BEACHES AND
INLAND COMMUNITIES COULD TOUCH GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW.

WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE SOUTH VALLEY AND CENTRAL CASCADES PERHAPS WAITING UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING. ONCE RAIN STARTS IT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH ALL AREAS SEEING POTENTIAL TO GET
AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN WITH PORTIONS OF THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES. REFER TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES BELOW OR THE WEATHER STORY
ON OUR WEB PAGE FOR A GRAPHIC SHOWING DETAILED AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL BE STAYING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE STORM TRACK WITH THIS EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY RISING
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 7 TO 8000 FOOT LEVEL. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS.

STILL HAVE RUNOFF CONCERNS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS. MAIN ONE WILL BE
FOR CLOGGED DRAINS AND CULVERTS BLOCKED BY FALLEN LEAVES. THIS YEARS
BURN SCARS ALSO PRESENT A BIG UNKNOWN WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE GROUND VERSUS IMMEDIATELY RUNNING OFF
AND CARRYING DEBRIS DOWN THE SLOPES. FINALLY...STILL WILL BE KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE COASTAL RIVERS WITH THE GRAYS RIVER SHOWING FORECASTED
RAPID RISES BUT STILL REMAINING A FOOT OR SO BELOW BANKFULL. OTHER
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES IN THE AREA WILL CERTAINLY RUN HIGH BAND MO
MAINSTEM RIVERS LOOK TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGES DESPITE THIS FIRST
HEAVY RAIN EVENT OF THE YEAR.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH EXPECT SEE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANOTHER
LOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BEGIN SENDING ANOTHER WARM FRONT
NORTH. THESE RAINS WILL DRIFT NORTH WITH INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF SALEM STAYING SOMEWHAT DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PAC NW. PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME IN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND 30 KT
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. STEADIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO SPREAD STEADY RAIN IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT AFTER 15Z. PYLE


&&

.MARINE...S/SW WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WE STILL EXPECT HIGH END GALE FORCE
GUSTS NEAR 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT...WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50
TO 55 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING
TOMORROW AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.

A FAIRLY CONSTANT WESTERLY SWELL NEAR 10 FT IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 11 TO 13 FT
RANGE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS MAY APPROACH
20 FT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DURING THE PERIOD OF
HIGHEST WINDS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONT IS BEING MODELED FOR LATER FRI
INTO SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES TO THE FCST
FOR THIS PERIOD. BUT IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SOLID GALE WITH SEAS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY. PYLE


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 212150
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to east this evening, leaving only some isolated
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. From late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, the next frontal wave and round of precipitation
comes through. The active pattern continues into early next week,
with the potential for more widespread rain late Friday into
Saturday, then again late Monday into next Tuesday, as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...A MOIST PACIFIC STORM WITH SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTIONS TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

Tonight through Wednesday: Satellite imagery shows a deep upper
level low pressure system circulating in the Gulf Alaska. Water
vapor imagery shows a deep fetch of moisture extending out along
40N to an area of sub-tropical convection in the central Pacific.
Model guidance indicates P-wats of up around 1.25 inches directed
toward the Pacific Northwest. Much of this moisture content will
be squeezed out along the windward slopes of the northern Cascade
Mtns, but more than enough of this moisture is expected to
translate east of the Cascades for soaking rains across much of
the region beginning tonight.

The warm front shows up rather nicely on satellite, which
currently is just off the WA/OR coast. There is a good amount of
enhancement on both the water vapor and IR satellite imagery in
the warm sector of the low behind the leading edge of the warm
front. This will be the area to keep an eye on trough tonight for
periods of moderate to heavy rain. Much of this rainfall will
remain along the Cascade crest this evening into the early
portions of the overnight period. This moisture will begin to
push east of the Cascade Mtns early Wednesday morning. Strong
isentropic ascent will occur across the northwestern portion of
the forecast area with much of the precip falling northwest of a
line from about Ritzville to Sandpoint. Much of the southeastern
portion of the forecast area will have to wait for rain until the
cold front pushes further onshore after tomorrow afternoon.

*Rain Amounts: Easterly to southeasterly winds at low levels will
 result in good upslope flow into the East Slopes of the Northern
 Cascades over into the Okanogan Highlands. These areas are
 expected to see a range of 0.75-1.50 inches of rainfall over a 24
 hour period tonight through Wednesday. Higher amounts closer to 2
 inches will be possible up near the Cascade crest. The Wenatchee
 Area, Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Vly will see rainfall
 amounts closer to a half of an inch over this period; and the
 Moses Lake Area, Upper Columbia Basin into the Northeast Mtns
 will see rainfall amounts between 0.10 to around 0.25 inches
 through Wednesday.

*Impacts: There is a small chance for some rises to small streams
 and mud slides due to heavy rain. The primary area of concern
 will be along the East Slopes of the Northern Cascade Mtns and
 primarily in or near recent burn scars. Rainfall intensity will
 likely not be strong enough for Flash Flooding concerns; however,
 rainfall on recent burn scars will likely lead to more rapid
 runoff than normally observed in these kind of events.

*Snow: Snow levels will be up around 6,500 feet through this
 period. This will result in snow only up over the highest peaks
 and primarily over the peaks in the Cascades.

*Winds: A southeasterly surface pressure gradient will tighten tonight
 into Wednesday. Winds at 850 mbs will increase up to around 30-35
 kts. Since the region will be exclusively in the warm sector
 during this period, mixing will be limited somewhat; this will be
 especially so in locations where it is raining. A better chance
 for better mixing will be across the basin over into the Central
 Panhandle Mtns where the rain will take a bit longer to form.
 This is expected to result in breezy southerly winds with
 sustained speeds of around 15-20 mph and gusts up to around 25-30
 mph.

*Temperatures: Expect cooler temperatures with the rain to across
 the northwest portion of the forecast area on Wednesday. High
 temperatures will be more mild across the southeast portion of
 the forecast area and about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. /SVH

Wednesday night through Friday night: An active weather pattern
continues with a parade of systems tapping some subtropical
moisture. First from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning a
cold front pushes across the Cascades and advances toward Idaho
overnight into Thursday morning. Driven east by a mid-level
disturbance and a 130kt jet stream, this system is featuring
modest lift. The subtropical moisture plume directed into the
region ahead of this boundary pushes PWATs up toward 0.60 to 1.0
inches (or 150-240% of normal). This combination of lift and
moisture will bring likely rain between Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning across a large portion of eastern WA and north
ID. The lowest threat will be toward the L-C Valley and Camas
Prairie, especially before Thursday morning, and chances will
begin to wane in the lee of the Cascades late in the evening to
overnight.

From Thursday morning to early Thursday evening the frontal
boundary stalls near the central ID/MT border through northeast
OR, just south of Lookout Pass to the Blue Mountains, with the jet
just north of the front. Regional PWATs drop to between 0.40 to
0.70 inches (or 100-170% of normal). This is still a decent amount
of moisture. The proximity of the front and the enhanced lift near
the LFQ of the jet will keep precipitation likely across the Idaho
Panhandle through the Blues and near the Cascade crest. Chances
will also remain moderately high across the eastern third of WA,
with the proximity of that LFQ of the jet, but will be waning in
the lee of the Cascades.

From late Thursday evening to Friday morning the atmosphere dries
out a little more, with the core of deeper plume of moisture
briefly sagging toward southern Oregon. This plus weak shortwave
ridging nosing in ahead of the next system will further decrease
the precipitation through this period. The best chances of
precipitation during this time frame will be near southeast WA and
the ID Panhandle mountains, as well as near the Cascade crest.

From Friday afternoon through Friday night the next low pressure
system deepens as it lifts north from the CA/OR coast toward the
WA/OR coast. With the increased southerly flow a warm front lifts
into the region, with the plume of subtropical moisture coming
back north with it. Models suggest this should evolve as a band of
precipitation which envelopes areas along the WA/OR border through
the Idaho Clearwaters by later Friday afternoon, then lifts north
across much of remainder of central and eastern WA and north ID
early Friday evening, before the focus lifts toward the northern
mountains and backs against the Cascades overnight into Saturday
morning. So some modest precipitation amounts are possible:
potentially between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with local
amounts over a half inch to an inch toward the Cascades. This
could mean some slow rises on creeks and streams and other waterways
near the Cascades, with minor mudslides/debris flows. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Tuesday...A trough off the coast starts moving
in on Saturday with a decent cold front, gusty winds with near
or above normal temperatures and higher mountain snow. Sunday
will see a high pressure ridge building in for a brief break in
the weather. Then for Monday into Monday night, there will be the
next wet weather system on the way with Pacific moisture moving
in. After that it will be a fairly active weather pattern in the
future with multiple storm systems from the west especially for
the mountains but overall, no severe weather is expected for this
time of the forecast. /TC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low stratus will linger around the northern and eastern
basin, as well as, into the ID Panhandle through this afternoon.
This will impact the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW TAF locations. The stratus
deck is expected to lift into a stratocumulus deck through the
afternoon with VFR cigs possible by the late afternoon hours. Low
level flow will back to out of the southeast overnight as a moist
Pacific storm system approaches the region. Strong warm air
advection should clear out the low clouds tonight with rainfall
forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by Wednesday
morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing after 12Z with
cigs lowering to MVFR category. Low level wind shear will become a
concern as well with winds increasing significantly off the
surface and veering to out of the southwest; however, low level
wind shear is not mentioned in the TAFs as it does not look to be
strong enough. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  59  48  59  43  56 /  10  60  90  50  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  40  57  45  58  41  55 /  10  40  90  70  30  40
Pullman        43  62  47  59  45  58 /   0  20  70  60  30  50
Lewiston       44  66  51  63  48  61 /   0  10  30  60  40  60
Colville       44  54  46  57  41  56 /  20 100 100  60  20  20
Sandpoint      40  55  43  55  38  55 /  10  60  90  70  40  20
Kellogg        38  57  45  54  41  53 /  10  10  80  80  60  40
Moses Lake     49  59  48  64  43  58 /  20  90  90  20  10  50
Wenatchee      48  55  48  61  44  55 /  70 100  80  30  10  60
Omak           46  52  45  59  40  55 /  80 100 100  40  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 212150
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to east this evening, leaving only some isolated
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. From late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, the next frontal wave and round of precipitation
comes through. The active pattern continues into early next week,
with the potential for more widespread rain late Friday into
Saturday, then again late Monday into next Tuesday, as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...A MOIST PACIFIC STORM WITH SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTIONS TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

Tonight through Wednesday: Satellite imagery shows a deep upper
level low pressure system circulating in the Gulf Alaska. Water
vapor imagery shows a deep fetch of moisture extending out along
40N to an area of sub-tropical convection in the central Pacific.
Model guidance indicates P-wats of up around 1.25 inches directed
toward the Pacific Northwest. Much of this moisture content will
be squeezed out along the windward slopes of the northern Cascade
Mtns, but more than enough of this moisture is expected to
translate east of the Cascades for soaking rains across much of
the region beginning tonight.

The warm front shows up rather nicely on satellite, which
currently is just off the WA/OR coast. There is a good amount of
enhancement on both the water vapor and IR satellite imagery in
the warm sector of the low behind the leading edge of the warm
front. This will be the area to keep an eye on trough tonight for
periods of moderate to heavy rain. Much of this rainfall will
remain along the Cascade crest this evening into the early
portions of the overnight period. This moisture will begin to
push east of the Cascade Mtns early Wednesday morning. Strong
isentropic ascent will occur across the northwestern portion of
the forecast area with much of the precip falling northwest of a
line from about Ritzville to Sandpoint. Much of the southeastern
portion of the forecast area will have to wait for rain until the
cold front pushes further onshore after tomorrow afternoon.

*Rain Amounts: Easterly to southeasterly winds at low levels will
 result in good upslope flow into the East Slopes of the Northern
 Cascades over into the Okanogan Highlands. These areas are
 expected to see a range of 0.75-1.50 inches of rainfall over a 24
 hour period tonight through Wednesday. Higher amounts closer to 2
 inches will be possible up near the Cascade crest. The Wenatchee
 Area, Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Vly will see rainfall
 amounts closer to a half of an inch over this period; and the
 Moses Lake Area, Upper Columbia Basin into the Northeast Mtns
 will see rainfall amounts between 0.10 to around 0.25 inches
 through Wednesday.

*Impacts: There is a small chance for some rises to small streams
 and mud slides due to heavy rain. The primary area of concern
 will be along the East Slopes of the Northern Cascade Mtns and
 primarily in or near recent burn scars. Rainfall intensity will
 likely not be strong enough for Flash Flooding concerns; however,
 rainfall on recent burn scars will likely lead to more rapid
 runoff than normally observed in these kind of events.

*Snow: Snow levels will be up around 6,500 feet through this
 period. This will result in snow only up over the highest peaks
 and primarily over the peaks in the Cascades.

*Winds: A southeasterly surface pressure gradient will tighten tonight
 into Wednesday. Winds at 850 mbs will increase up to around 30-35
 kts. Since the region will be exclusively in the warm sector
 during this period, mixing will be limited somewhat; this will be
 especially so in locations where it is raining. A better chance
 for better mixing will be across the basin over into the Central
 Panhandle Mtns where the rain will take a bit longer to form.
 This is expected to result in breezy southerly winds with
 sustained speeds of around 15-20 mph and gusts up to around 25-30
 mph.

*Temperatures: Expect cooler temperatures with the rain to across
 the northwest portion of the forecast area on Wednesday. High
 temperatures will be more mild across the southeast portion of
 the forecast area and about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. /SVH

Wednesday night through Friday night: An active weather pattern
continues with a parade of systems tapping some subtropical
moisture. First from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning a
cold front pushes across the Cascades and advances toward Idaho
overnight into Thursday morning. Driven east by a mid-level
disturbance and a 130kt jet stream, this system is featuring
modest lift. The subtropical moisture plume directed into the
region ahead of this boundary pushes PWATs up toward 0.60 to 1.0
inches (or 150-240% of normal). This combination of lift and
moisture will bring likely rain between Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning across a large portion of eastern WA and north
ID. The lowest threat will be toward the L-C Valley and Camas
Prairie, especially before Thursday morning, and chances will
begin to wane in the lee of the Cascades late in the evening to
overnight.

From Thursday morning to early Thursday evening the frontal
boundary stalls near the central ID/MT border through northeast
OR, just south of Lookout Pass to the Blue Mountains, with the jet
just north of the front. Regional PWATs drop to between 0.40 to
0.70 inches (or 100-170% of normal). This is still a decent amount
of moisture. The proximity of the front and the enhanced lift near
the LFQ of the jet will keep precipitation likely across the Idaho
Panhandle through the Blues and near the Cascade crest. Chances
will also remain moderately high across the eastern third of WA,
with the proximity of that LFQ of the jet, but will be waning in
the lee of the Cascades.

From late Thursday evening to Friday morning the atmosphere dries
out a little more, with the core of deeper plume of moisture
briefly sagging toward southern Oregon. This plus weak shortwave
ridging nosing in ahead of the next system will further decrease
the precipitation through this period. The best chances of
precipitation during this time frame will be near southeast WA and
the ID Panhandle mountains, as well as near the Cascade crest.

From Friday afternoon through Friday night the next low pressure
system deepens as it lifts north from the CA/OR coast toward the
WA/OR coast. With the increased southerly flow a warm front lifts
into the region, with the plume of subtropical moisture coming
back north with it. Models suggest this should evolve as a band of
precipitation which envelopes areas along the WA/OR border through
the Idaho Clearwaters by later Friday afternoon, then lifts north
across much of remainder of central and eastern WA and north ID
early Friday evening, before the focus lifts toward the northern
mountains and backs against the Cascades overnight into Saturday
morning. So some modest precipitation amounts are possible:
potentially between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with local
amounts over a half inch to an inch toward the Cascades. This
could mean some slow rises on creeks and streams and other waterways
near the Cascades, with minor mudslides/debris flows. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Tuesday...A trough off the coast starts moving
in on Saturday with a decent cold front, gusty winds with near
or above normal temperatures and higher mountain snow. Sunday
will see a high pressure ridge building in for a brief break in
the weather. Then for Monday into Monday night, there will be the
next wet weather system on the way with Pacific moisture moving
in. After that it will be a fairly active weather pattern in the
future with multiple storm systems from the west especially for
the mountains but overall, no severe weather is expected for this
time of the forecast. /TC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low stratus will linger around the northern and eastern
basin, as well as, into the ID Panhandle through this afternoon.
This will impact the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW TAF locations. The stratus
deck is expected to lift into a stratocumulus deck through the
afternoon with VFR cigs possible by the late afternoon hours. Low
level flow will back to out of the southeast overnight as a moist
Pacific storm system approaches the region. Strong warm air
advection should clear out the low clouds tonight with rainfall
forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by Wednesday
morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing after 12Z with
cigs lowering to MVFR category. Low level wind shear will become a
concern as well with winds increasing significantly off the
surface and veering to out of the southwest; however, low level
wind shear is not mentioned in the TAFs as it does not look to be
strong enough. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  59  48  59  43  56 /  10  60  90  50  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  40  57  45  58  41  55 /  10  40  90  70  30  40
Pullman        43  62  47  59  45  58 /   0  20  70  60  30  50
Lewiston       44  66  51  63  48  61 /   0  10  30  60  40  60
Colville       44  54  46  57  41  56 /  20 100 100  60  20  20
Sandpoint      40  55  43  55  38  55 /  10  60  90  70  40  20
Kellogg        38  57  45  54  41  53 /  10  10  80  80  60  40
Moses Lake     49  59  48  64  43  58 /  20  90  90  20  10  50
Wenatchee      48  55  48  61  44  55 /  70 100  80  30  10  60
Omak           46  52  45  59  40  55 /  80 100 100  40  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 211811
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1111 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low stratus will linger around the northern and eastern
basin, as well as, into the ID Panhandle through this afternoon.
This will impact the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW TAF locations. The stratus
deck is expected to lift into a stratocumulus deck through the
afternoon with VFR cigs possible by the late afternoon hours. Low
level flow will back to out of the southeast overnight as a moist
Pacific storm system approaches the region. Strong warm air
advection should clear out the low clouds tonight with rainfall
forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by Wednesday
morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing after 12Z with
cigs lowering to MVFR category. Low level wind shear will become a
concern as well with winds increasing significantly off the
surface and veering to out of the southwest; however, low level
wind shear is not mentioned in the TAFs as it does not look to be
strong enough. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211644
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
944 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
CLAPS OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT
BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...SPREADING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PASS BY. ANOTHER WET
AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THUS FAR WITH THE 12Z OUTPUT.
THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFFSHORE. THE OCCLUSION IS SITUATED
JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SETUP PLACES
OUR REGION SQUARELY IN THE WARMING SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE TO SEE A COASTAL JET DEVELOP
WITH NAM12 AND RAP INDICATED PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 67 MPH CENTERED
AROUND 900 MB. THUS FEEL MOST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WILL PEAK OUT
AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WINDS AT THAT LEVEL VEERING MORE SW THAN THE SOUTH WINDS TRAPPED
ALONG THE TERRAIN. WILL STILL CARRY THE HIGHER SPEEDS TONIGHT IN THE
PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS THE EXPOSED HIGHER HEADLANDS SUCH AS CAPE
FOULWEATHER...CAPE LOOKOUT...AND CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT CERTAINLY COULD
FULLY REALIZE THOSE HIGHER SPEEDS. RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN ON TRACK AS
EXPECTED FROM OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR
THIS SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
COASTAL SITES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD HEAVIER RAIN ONTO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND INLAND TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF MVFR CIG MAY FORM THROUGH ABOUT 21Z IN SHOWERS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO SPREAD STEADY RAIN IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...S/SW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
GALE FORCE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED. SOME COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT MAY
BRING A FEW 50 TO 55 KT GUSTS TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SEAS
MAY APPROACH 20 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...BUT THE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 211558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IT WILL REMAIN
WET ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE
WEATHERWISE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS CHARGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER
STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

FIRST FOR TODAY...A PASSING UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER NW
WASHINGTON. AN OCCLUSION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR 54N 141W EXTENDS SSW FROM NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
INTO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS OCCLUSION HAS
QUITE A BIT OF TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL ADD SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE OCCLUSION NICKS THAT AREA. TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OCCLUSION STALLS OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN A DEVELOPING WAVE
NOW SEEN NEAR 43N 141W CHARGES EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOPS TO AROUND A 992 MB LOW AS IT HITS SOUTH CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH NOW SEEN NEAR 35N 165E. TWO ISSUES ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS LOW...WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO
REACH THE HIGHER END OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND THE 00Z
WRFGFS MESOSCALE MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE
SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS
FROM THE NAM12 AND 9-12 INCHES FROM THE WRFGFS IN A 12-15 HR PERIOD.
WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE MODELS...THIS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT
IS TYPICALLY SEEN IN EVEN HEAVIER EVENTS ALONG THE SW OLYMPICS. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED FROM MASON COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD WED REACHING FROM
THE N CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST. THE NAM12 HINTS THAT RATHER
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CASCADES WED
MORNING.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER OUT...ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST
12Z NAM12...ARE SHOWING GOOD SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE REMAINS OF
HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THIS LOW
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THEN POSSIBLY DECAYS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER
VIGOROUS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH WIND
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN WA...BUT THE EXACT
STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR. IT IS
WORTH NOTING BUT NOT BITING ON ANY ONE SOLUTION JUST YET AS A LOT
CAN CHANGE. THE FORECAST LOOKS COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE
MAY BRING DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER ON MON. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
IS BEING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING RAINFALL RATES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
IS LIKELY TO FLOOD. WHILE RIVERS SUCH AS THE QUINAULT AND CLEARWATER
CAN HANDLE A LOT OF WATER...THEY DONT TYPICALLY SEE 9-12 INCHES FALL
IN A 12 TO 15 HOUR PERIOD. IT THAT OCCURS...FLOODING IS LIKELY ON
PORTIONS OF THOSE RIVERS AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE ISSUED.
THE BOGACHIEL AND OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MODELS DO
NOT SHOW FLOODING IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...IF THE INCOMING WRFGFS
4KM AND ECMWF SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...A FLOOD WATCH
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME RIVERS IN WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON WESTERN
WASHINGTON RIVERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET TODAY WITH LOWER CEILING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BUT LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ALL OTHER WATERS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
      STRAIT  OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND
      ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
      SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 211558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IT WILL REMAIN
WET ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE
WEATHERWISE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS CHARGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER
STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

FIRST FOR TODAY...A PASSING UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER NW
WASHINGTON. AN OCCLUSION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR 54N 141W EXTENDS SSW FROM NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
INTO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS OCCLUSION HAS
QUITE A BIT OF TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL ADD SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE OCCLUSION NICKS THAT AREA. TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OCCLUSION STALLS OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN A DEVELOPING WAVE
NOW SEEN NEAR 43N 141W CHARGES EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOPS TO AROUND A 992 MB LOW AS IT HITS SOUTH CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH NOW SEEN NEAR 35N 165E. TWO ISSUES ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS LOW...WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO
REACH THE HIGHER END OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND THE 00Z
WRFGFS MESOSCALE MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE
SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS
FROM THE NAM12 AND 9-12 INCHES FROM THE WRFGFS IN A 12-15 HR PERIOD.
WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE MODELS...THIS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT
IS TYPICALLY SEEN IN EVEN HEAVIER EVENTS ALONG THE SW OLYMPICS. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED FROM MASON COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD WED REACHING FROM
THE N CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST. THE NAM12 HINTS THAT RATHER
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CASCADES WED
MORNING.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER OUT...ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST
12Z NAM12...ARE SHOWING GOOD SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE REMAINS OF
HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THIS LOW
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THEN POSSIBLY DECAYS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER
VIGOROUS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH WIND
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN WA...BUT THE EXACT
STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR. IT IS
WORTH NOTING BUT NOT BITING ON ANY ONE SOLUTION JUST YET AS A LOT
CAN CHANGE. THE FORECAST LOOKS COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE
MAY BRING DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER ON MON. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
IS BEING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING RAINFALL RATES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
IS LIKELY TO FLOOD. WHILE RIVERS SUCH AS THE QUINAULT AND CLEARWATER
CAN HANDLE A LOT OF WATER...THEY DONT TYPICALLY SEE 9-12 INCHES FALL
IN A 12 TO 15 HOUR PERIOD. IT THAT OCCURS...FLOODING IS LIKELY ON
PORTIONS OF THOSE RIVERS AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE ISSUED.
THE BOGACHIEL AND OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MODELS DO
NOT SHOW FLOODING IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...IF THE INCOMING WRFGFS
4KM AND ECMWF SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...A FLOOD WATCH
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME RIVERS IN WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON WESTERN
WASHINGTON RIVERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET TODAY WITH LOWER CEILING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BUT LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ALL OTHER WATERS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
      STRAIT  OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND
      ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
      SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 211558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IT WILL REMAIN
WET ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE
WEATHERWISE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS CHARGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER
STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

FIRST FOR TODAY...A PASSING UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER NW
WASHINGTON. AN OCCLUSION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR 54N 141W EXTENDS SSW FROM NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
INTO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS OCCLUSION HAS
QUITE A BIT OF TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL ADD SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE OCCLUSION NICKS THAT AREA. TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OCCLUSION STALLS OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN A DEVELOPING WAVE
NOW SEEN NEAR 43N 141W CHARGES EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOPS TO AROUND A 992 MB LOW AS IT HITS SOUTH CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH NOW SEEN NEAR 35N 165E. TWO ISSUES ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS LOW...WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO
REACH THE HIGHER END OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND THE 00Z
WRFGFS MESOSCALE MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE
SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS
FROM THE NAM12 AND 9-12 INCHES FROM THE WRFGFS IN A 12-15 HR PERIOD.
WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE MODELS...THIS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT
IS TYPICALLY SEEN IN EVEN HEAVIER EVENTS ALONG THE SW OLYMPICS. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED FROM MASON COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD WED REACHING FROM
THE N CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST. THE NAM12 HINTS THAT RATHER
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CASCADES WED
MORNING.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER OUT...ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST
12Z NAM12...ARE SHOWING GOOD SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE REMAINS OF
HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THIS LOW
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THEN POSSIBLY DECAYS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER
VIGOROUS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH WIND
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN WA...BUT THE EXACT
STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR. IT IS
WORTH NOTING BUT NOT BITING ON ANY ONE SOLUTION JUST YET AS A LOT
CAN CHANGE. THE FORECAST LOOKS COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE
MAY BRING DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER ON MON. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
IS BEING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING RAINFALL RATES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
IS LIKELY TO FLOOD. WHILE RIVERS SUCH AS THE QUINAULT AND CLEARWATER
CAN HANDLE A LOT OF WATER...THEY DONT TYPICALLY SEE 9-12 INCHES FALL
IN A 12 TO 15 HOUR PERIOD. IT THAT OCCURS...FLOODING IS LIKELY ON
PORTIONS OF THOSE RIVERS AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE ISSUED.
THE BOGACHIEL AND OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MODELS DO
NOT SHOW FLOODING IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...IF THE INCOMING WRFGFS
4KM AND ECMWF SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...A FLOOD WATCH
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME RIVERS IN WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON WESTERN
WASHINGTON RIVERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET TODAY WITH LOWER CEILING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BUT LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ALL OTHER WATERS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
      STRAIT  OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND
      ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
      SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 211558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IT WILL REMAIN
WET ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE
WEATHERWISE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS CHARGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER
STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

FIRST FOR TODAY...A PASSING UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER NW
WASHINGTON. AN OCCLUSION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR 54N 141W EXTENDS SSW FROM NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
INTO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS OCCLUSION HAS
QUITE A BIT OF TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL ADD SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE OCCLUSION NICKS THAT AREA. TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OCCLUSION STALLS OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN A DEVELOPING WAVE
NOW SEEN NEAR 43N 141W CHARGES EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOPS TO AROUND A 992 MB LOW AS IT HITS SOUTH CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH NOW SEEN NEAR 35N 165E. TWO ISSUES ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS LOW...WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO
REACH THE HIGHER END OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND THE 00Z
WRFGFS MESOSCALE MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE
SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS
FROM THE NAM12 AND 9-12 INCHES FROM THE WRFGFS IN A 12-15 HR PERIOD.
WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE MODELS...THIS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT
IS TYPICALLY SEEN IN EVEN HEAVIER EVENTS ALONG THE SW OLYMPICS. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED FROM MASON COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD WED REACHING FROM
THE N CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST. THE NAM12 HINTS THAT RATHER
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CASCADES WED
MORNING.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER OUT...ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST
12Z NAM12...ARE SHOWING GOOD SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE REMAINS OF
HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THIS LOW
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THEN POSSIBLY DECAYS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER
VIGOROUS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH WIND
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN WA...BUT THE EXACT
STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR. IT IS
WORTH NOTING BUT NOT BITING ON ANY ONE SOLUTION JUST YET AS A LOT
CAN CHANGE. THE FORECAST LOOKS COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE
MAY BRING DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER ON MON. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
IS BEING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING RAINFALL RATES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
IS LIKELY TO FLOOD. WHILE RIVERS SUCH AS THE QUINAULT AND CLEARWATER
CAN HANDLE A LOT OF WATER...THEY DONT TYPICALLY SEE 9-12 INCHES FALL
IN A 12 TO 15 HOUR PERIOD. IT THAT OCCURS...FLOODING IS LIKELY ON
PORTIONS OF THOSE RIVERS AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE ISSUED.
THE BOGACHIEL AND OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MODELS DO
NOT SHOW FLOODING IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...IF THE INCOMING WRFGFS
4KM AND ECMWF SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...A FLOOD WATCH
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME RIVERS IN WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON WESTERN
WASHINGTON RIVERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET TODAY WITH LOWER CEILING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BUT LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ALL OTHER WATERS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
      STRAIT  OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND
      ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
      SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KOTX 211153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain from slow moving cold front has shifted east of all
forecast sites save PUW and LWS. These sites will see rain end
before 15z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible until the threat shifts
east...but confidence is low. Elsewhere...the main forecast issue
this morning is widespread low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs impacting
the remaining site. Not sure how extensive or thick this
cloudiness is due to high clouds blocking satellite fog
product...so leaned toward conditional climatology which suggests
it should begin to burn off between 17-19z. Confidence is not high
though. The next moist front will track into the Cascades around
04-06z this evening which will likely bring rains to EAT and
possibly MWH late in the forecast period. This should bring
another round of MVFR cigs. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 211153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain from slow moving cold front has shifted east of all
forecast sites save PUW and LWS. These sites will see rain end
before 15z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible until the threat shifts
east...but confidence is low. Elsewhere...the main forecast issue
this morning is widespread low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs impacting
the remaining site. Not sure how extensive or thick this
cloudiness is due to high clouds blocking satellite fog
product...so leaned toward conditional climatology which suggests
it should begin to burn off between 17-19z. Confidence is not high
though. The next moist front will track into the Cascades around
04-06z this evening which will likely bring rains to EAT and
possibly MWH late in the forecast period. This should bring
another round of MVFR cigs. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 211153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain from slow moving cold front has shifted east of all
forecast sites save PUW and LWS. These sites will see rain end
before 15z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible until the threat shifts
east...but confidence is low. Elsewhere...the main forecast issue
this morning is widespread low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs impacting
the remaining site. Not sure how extensive or thick this
cloudiness is due to high clouds blocking satellite fog
product...so leaned toward conditional climatology which suggests
it should begin to burn off between 17-19z. Confidence is not high
though. The next moist front will track into the Cascades around
04-06z this evening which will likely bring rains to EAT and
possibly MWH late in the forecast period. This should bring
another round of MVFR cigs. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 211153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain from slow moving cold front has shifted east of all
forecast sites save PUW and LWS. These sites will see rain end
before 15z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible until the threat shifts
east...but confidence is low. Elsewhere...the main forecast issue
this morning is widespread low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs impacting
the remaining site. Not sure how extensive or thick this
cloudiness is due to high clouds blocking satellite fog
product...so leaned toward conditional climatology which suggests
it should begin to burn off between 17-19z. Confidence is not high
though. The next moist front will track into the Cascades around
04-06z this evening which will likely bring rains to EAT and
possibly MWH late in the forecast period. This should bring
another round of MVFR cigs. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 210948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Moderate to heavy rain occurring along an elongated
frontal zone slowly passing through Eastern Washington and North
Idaho overnight and early Tuesday will bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities at times. Wind should shift and be somewhat breezy
behind the front with a lesser chance of showers. There may still
be some possibility of fog and low cloud formation due to this
rainfall either tonight into tomorrow morning and again tomorrow
night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 210525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased reflectivity on radar and some brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall reported at observation sites
associated with the higher reflectivity necessitated another
update to grids and text products to increase the pops and qpf
associated with the wet frontal zone moving through the area
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Moderate to heavy rain occurring along an elongated
frontal zone slowly passing through Eastern Washington and North
Idaho overnight and early Tuesday will bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities at times. Wind should shift and be somewhat breezy
behind the front with a lesser chance of showers. There may still
be some possibility of fog and low cloud formation due to this
rainfall either tonight into tomorrow morning and again tomorrow
night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  90  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  90  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  80  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  80  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 210525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased reflectivity on radar and some brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall reported at observation sites
associated with the higher reflectivity necessitated another
update to grids and text products to increase the pops and qpf
associated with the wet frontal zone moving through the area
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Moderate to heavy rain occurring along an elongated
frontal zone slowly passing through Eastern Washington and North
Idaho overnight and early Tuesday will bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities at times. Wind should shift and be somewhat breezy
behind the front with a lesser chance of showers. There may still
be some possibility of fog and low cloud formation due to this
rainfall either tonight into tomorrow morning and again tomorrow
night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  90  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  90  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  80  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  80  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 210420
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO
THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE A WET DAY OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
TSTMS OCCURRED BETWEEN THE SOUTH TIP OF WHIDBEY AND THE ARLINGTON
AREA...AND THE CAMANO ISLAND RADAR SHOWED UP TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN
IN SOME LOCATIONS OF WRN SNOHOMISH COUNTY FROM THE HEAVY SHOWERS.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAST APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE LEADING
FRONTAL BAND IS CROSSING 130W THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG WESTERLY
JETSTREAM CHASING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG 45N.
THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS IN THE CATEGORY OF A
WIND ADVISORY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE COAST AND ALL AROUND
THE SAN JUANS. THE NAM TAKES A 996MB LOW ACROSS 130W AROUND 8PM AND
THAT GETS DOWN TO 991MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES VANCOUVER ISLAND
AROUND 2AM. THE 00Z GFS40 DOESN`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE UW WRFGFS HINTS AT A LITTLE SOMETHING. SUSTAINED
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL BE
GALES...AND THE UW 10M WIND GUSTS FORECAST SHOWS WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 60KT WITH 40KT OR 45MPH GUSTS OVER
LAND. THE OTHER THING TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT CARRIES OVER INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RAIN DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO GET THE SKOKOMISH UP TO FLOOD STAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE OLYMPICS WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
TO FLOOD STAGE ON WEDNESDAY. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY OUT
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR OTHER AREAS RIVERS...FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E
OF TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. A 990
MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT....DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH WRN WA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW
ALOFT...BECOMING STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND UNSTABLE...BECOMING SOMEWHAT STABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THEN SHOWERS
DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. VARIABLE CIGS...BUT GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

KSEA...SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DECREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
BECOMING UNLIKELY BY MIDNIGHT. MAINLY VFR CIGS BUT MVFR CIGS
2000-2500 FT POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ANY THUNDERSTORM. SSW
WIND 5-10 KT...BUT VARIABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN INCREASING LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS...W-SW SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS MAY REACH 15-16 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEST ENTRANCE...SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. SLY WINDS RISING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR UP FOR THE COAST AND W STRAIT
THROUGH TUESDAY....AND FOR ADMIRALTY INLET NWD ON TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 990 MB LOW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOLID GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WEST
ENTRANCE AND INLAND WATERS N OF ADMIRALTY INLET. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS EFFECT FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH TUESDAY
     NIGHT.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE COAST...WEST AND EAST ENTRANCES TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND THE
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 210420
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO
THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE A WET DAY OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
TSTMS OCCURRED BETWEEN THE SOUTH TIP OF WHIDBEY AND THE ARLINGTON
AREA...AND THE CAMANO ISLAND RADAR SHOWED UP TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN
IN SOME LOCATIONS OF WRN SNOHOMISH COUNTY FROM THE HEAVY SHOWERS.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAST APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE LEADING
FRONTAL BAND IS CROSSING 130W THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG WESTERLY
JETSTREAM CHASING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG 45N.
THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS IN THE CATEGORY OF A
WIND ADVISORY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE COAST AND ALL AROUND
THE SAN JUANS. THE NAM TAKES A 996MB LOW ACROSS 130W AROUND 8PM AND
THAT GETS DOWN TO 991MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES VANCOUVER ISLAND
AROUND 2AM. THE 00Z GFS40 DOESN`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE UW WRFGFS HINTS AT A LITTLE SOMETHING. SUSTAINED
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL BE
GALES...AND THE UW 10M WIND GUSTS FORECAST SHOWS WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 60KT WITH 40KT OR 45MPH GUSTS OVER
LAND. THE OTHER THING TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT CARRIES OVER INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RAIN DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO GET THE SKOKOMISH UP TO FLOOD STAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE OLYMPICS WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
TO FLOOD STAGE ON WEDNESDAY. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY OUT
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR OTHER AREAS RIVERS...FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E
OF TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. A 990
MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT....DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH WRN WA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW
ALOFT...BECOMING STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND UNSTABLE...BECOMING SOMEWHAT STABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THEN SHOWERS
DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. VARIABLE CIGS...BUT GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

KSEA...SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DECREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
BECOMING UNLIKELY BY MIDNIGHT. MAINLY VFR CIGS BUT MVFR CIGS
2000-2500 FT POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ANY THUNDERSTORM. SSW
WIND 5-10 KT...BUT VARIABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN INCREASING LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS...W-SW SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS MAY REACH 15-16 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEST ENTRANCE...SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. SLY WINDS RISING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR UP FOR THE COAST AND W STRAIT
THROUGH TUESDAY....AND FOR ADMIRALTY INLET NWD ON TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 990 MB LOW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOLID GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WEST
ENTRANCE AND INLAND WATERS N OF ADMIRALTY INLET. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS EFFECT FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH TUESDAY
     NIGHT.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE COAST...WEST AND EAST ENTRANCES TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND THE
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 210420
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO
THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE A WET DAY OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
TSTMS OCCURRED BETWEEN THE SOUTH TIP OF WHIDBEY AND THE ARLINGTON
AREA...AND THE CAMANO ISLAND RADAR SHOWED UP TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN
IN SOME LOCATIONS OF WRN SNOHOMISH COUNTY FROM THE HEAVY SHOWERS.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAST APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE LEADING
FRONTAL BAND IS CROSSING 130W THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG WESTERLY
JETSTREAM CHASING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG 45N.
THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS IN THE CATEGORY OF A
WIND ADVISORY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE COAST AND ALL AROUND
THE SAN JUANS. THE NAM TAKES A 996MB LOW ACROSS 130W AROUND 8PM AND
THAT GETS DOWN TO 991MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES VANCOUVER ISLAND
AROUND 2AM. THE 00Z GFS40 DOESN`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE UW WRFGFS HINTS AT A LITTLE SOMETHING. SUSTAINED
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL BE
GALES...AND THE UW 10M WIND GUSTS FORECAST SHOWS WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 60KT WITH 40KT OR 45MPH GUSTS OVER
LAND. THE OTHER THING TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT CARRIES OVER INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RAIN DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO GET THE SKOKOMISH UP TO FLOOD STAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE OLYMPICS WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
TO FLOOD STAGE ON WEDNESDAY. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY OUT
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR OTHER AREAS RIVERS...FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E
OF TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. A 990
MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT....DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH WRN WA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW
ALOFT...BECOMING STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND UNSTABLE...BECOMING SOMEWHAT STABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THEN SHOWERS
DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. VARIABLE CIGS...BUT GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

KSEA...SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DECREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
BECOMING UNLIKELY BY MIDNIGHT. MAINLY VFR CIGS BUT MVFR CIGS
2000-2500 FT POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ANY THUNDERSTORM. SSW
WIND 5-10 KT...BUT VARIABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN INCREASING LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS...W-SW SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS MAY REACH 15-16 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEST ENTRANCE...SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. SLY WINDS RISING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR UP FOR THE COAST AND W STRAIT
THROUGH TUESDAY....AND FOR ADMIRALTY INLET NWD ON TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 990 MB LOW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOLID GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WEST
ENTRANCE AND INLAND WATERS N OF ADMIRALTY INLET. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS EFFECT FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH TUESDAY
     NIGHT.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE COAST...WEST AND EAST ENTRANCES TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND THE
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 210420
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO
THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE A WET DAY OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
TSTMS OCCURRED BETWEEN THE SOUTH TIP OF WHIDBEY AND THE ARLINGTON
AREA...AND THE CAMANO ISLAND RADAR SHOWED UP TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN
IN SOME LOCATIONS OF WRN SNOHOMISH COUNTY FROM THE HEAVY SHOWERS.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAST APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE LEADING
FRONTAL BAND IS CROSSING 130W THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG WESTERLY
JETSTREAM CHASING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG 45N.
THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS IN THE CATEGORY OF A
WIND ADVISORY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE COAST AND ALL AROUND
THE SAN JUANS. THE NAM TAKES A 996MB LOW ACROSS 130W AROUND 8PM AND
THAT GETS DOWN TO 991MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES VANCOUVER ISLAND
AROUND 2AM. THE 00Z GFS40 DOESN`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE UW WRFGFS HINTS AT A LITTLE SOMETHING. SUSTAINED
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL BE
GALES...AND THE UW 10M WIND GUSTS FORECAST SHOWS WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 60KT WITH 40KT OR 45MPH GUSTS OVER
LAND. THE OTHER THING TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT CARRIES OVER INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RAIN DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO GET THE SKOKOMISH UP TO FLOOD STAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE OLYMPICS WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
TO FLOOD STAGE ON WEDNESDAY. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY OUT
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR OTHER AREAS RIVERS...FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E
OF TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. A 990
MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT....DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH WRN WA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW
ALOFT...BECOMING STRONG S-SW FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND UNSTABLE...BECOMING SOMEWHAT STABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THEN SHOWERS
DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. VARIABLE CIGS...BUT GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

KSEA...SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DECREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
BECOMING UNLIKELY BY MIDNIGHT. MAINLY VFR CIGS BUT MVFR CIGS
2000-2500 FT POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ANY THUNDERSTORM. SSW
WIND 5-10 KT...BUT VARIABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN INCREASING LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL WATERS...W-SW SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS MAY REACH 15-16 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEST ENTRANCE...SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. SLY WINDS RISING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR UP FOR THE COAST AND W STRAIT
THROUGH TUESDAY....AND FOR ADMIRALTY INLET NWD ON TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 990 MB LOW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOLID GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WEST
ENTRANCE AND INLAND WATERS N OF ADMIRALTY INLET. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS EFFECT FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH TUESDAY
     NIGHT.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE COAST...WEST AND EAST ENTRANCES TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND THE
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE VALLEYS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LIKELY AFFECTED TRAFFIC IN THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND ON AREA FREEWAYS. THE SHOWERS ARE EASING... BUT WILL
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MOIST ENERGETIC SYSTEM APPROACHING 130W
THIS EVENING THAT HAS A 130 KT OR SO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC JET
PUSHING IT ALONG. THE MODELS SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD SHIELD
STARTING TO REACH THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING
TO SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS HUNG
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AND A STRONG 300 MB JET
IN ADDITION TO STRONG 850 MB INFLOW OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS. LOOK
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH THE MOST PRONE TO BE
FLASHY RIVERS LIKE THE GRAYS RIVER IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES MOVE ENOUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THAT IT MAY KEEP MOST RIVERS FROM FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL PROBABLY BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY...EXACERBATED BY THE
CURRENT CROP OF FALLING LEAVES PLUGGING STORM DRAINS.

THERE IS A GOOD WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW CENTER THAT THE NAM12 AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
HEADLANDS AND BEACHES FOR FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS.

THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP MUCH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE
POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE
WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE SHOWERS TUE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS AT THE COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ON THE COAST WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY
GUSTING TO 40 KT AT TIMES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INLAND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z.
&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING MAINLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UP TO
THE EXPECTED GALES BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH...SOME LOW END
GALES AND ONE OTHERS LIKE THE NAM IS SHOWING HIGHER END GALES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS ANOTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OREGON COAST WED MORNING...THIS IS AN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BUT BEARS
WATCHING GIVEN THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.  A COASTAL JET
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND BECOME
STEEPER TUE NIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KOTX 210322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
822 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased reflectivity on radar and some brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall reported at observation sites
associated with the higher reflectivity necessitated another
update to grids and text products to increase the pops and qpf
associated with the wet frontal zone moving through the area
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  90  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  90  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  80  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  80  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 210322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
822 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased reflectivity on radar and some brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall reported at observation sites
associated with the higher reflectivity necessitated another
update to grids and text products to increase the pops and qpf
associated with the wet frontal zone moving through the area
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  90  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  90  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  80  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  80  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 210322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
822 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased reflectivity on radar and some brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall reported at observation sites
associated with the higher reflectivity necessitated another
update to grids and text products to increase the pops and qpf
associated with the wet frontal zone moving through the area
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  90  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  90  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  80  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  80  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 210119
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
619 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update for tonight increased pops. QPF still not that heavy but
some of the most recent models have been consistent in the idea
that the band of precipitation moving through the Cascades and
Wenatchee vicinity will hold together fairly well as it moves
through the Spokane area tonight and into North Idaho later
overnight and tomorrow morning. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  70  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  70  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  70  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  60  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 210119
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
619 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update for tonight increased pops. QPF still not that heavy but
some of the most recent models have been consistent in the idea
that the band of precipitation moving through the Cascades and
Wenatchee vicinity will hold together fairly well as it moves
through the Spokane area tonight and into North Idaho later
overnight and tomorrow morning. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  70  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  70  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  70  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  60  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 202334
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
434 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 202334
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
434 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 202334
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
434 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 202229
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE AIR WILL BE
MOST UNSTABLE. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ISOLATED LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS MORE STABLE AIR.

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE OLYMPICS WHICH COULD PUSH THE
SKOKOMISH TO FLOOD WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THAT.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAINS FOR AT
LEAST PART OF WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING MORE
RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE OLYMPICS WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
TO FLOOD STAGE ON WEDNESDAY. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY OUT
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR OTHER AREAS RIVERS...FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
ACTIVITY WAS THIS MORNING. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER OLYMPIC PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO
FURTHER INLAND. ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN WELL OFFSHORE OR IN
CANADA. GIVEN BREAKS IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE COAST STILL PRESENT THIS EVENING. SMR

KSEA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE OVC
CONDITIONS MOVE IN TONIGHT. SHOWERS IN VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT SEA-TAC BEFORE 03Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT. SMR

&&

.MARINE...W-SW SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND INCLUDED THE COASTAL WATERS.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE AND INLAND WATERS N OF
ADMIRALTY INLET. A GALE WATCH REMAINS EFFECT FOR LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL DATA HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AND HAS THE
SYSTEM A TOUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO TIMING OF THIS WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE TINKERED WITH. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR OR
THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND FRIDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. DM/SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COASTAL WATERS AND WEST
     ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
     AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 202229
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE AIR WILL BE
MOST UNSTABLE. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ISOLATED LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS MORE STABLE AIR.

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE OLYMPICS WHICH COULD PUSH THE
SKOKOMISH TO FLOOD WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THAT.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAINS FOR AT
LEAST PART OF WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING MORE
RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE OLYMPICS WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
TO FLOOD STAGE ON WEDNESDAY. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY OUT
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR OTHER AREAS RIVERS...FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
ACTIVITY WAS THIS MORNING. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER OLYMPIC PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO
FURTHER INLAND. ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN WELL OFFSHORE OR IN
CANADA. GIVEN BREAKS IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE COAST STILL PRESENT THIS EVENING. SMR

KSEA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE OVC
CONDITIONS MOVE IN TONIGHT. SHOWERS IN VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT SEA-TAC BEFORE 03Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT. SMR

&&

.MARINE...W-SW SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND INCLUDED THE COASTAL WATERS.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE AND INLAND WATERS N OF
ADMIRALTY INLET. A GALE WATCH REMAINS EFFECT FOR LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL DATA HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AND HAS THE
SYSTEM A TOUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO TIMING OF THIS WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE TINKERED WITH. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR OR
THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND FRIDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. DM/SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COASTAL WATERS AND WEST
     ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
     AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 202156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS
HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES. DECENT
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO
RESULT IN THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
BUT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
EVENING. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALSO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. AS SUCH...TUESDAY APPEARS
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
HAVING DRIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN RECENT RUNS. IS ALL... STILL
POTENTIALLY A PLEASANT DAY THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.

MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD PACIFIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
GOOD AGAINST THE RECENT RUNS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR
PAST EVENTS PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE OF TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE
AND THE S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT
FOR OUR MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT
OF THE WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTLINE.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A BEACHES AND HEADLANDS FOCUS FOR THE
WINDS. THE SLIGHTLY INLAND COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY GET A SHORT
PERIOD OF THE HIGHER WINDS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER EXPOSURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. /JBONK


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MINIMAL
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING
POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...
MOST LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE S WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR AROUND 3 AM
TUE NIGHT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE
NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 201825
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1125 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is creeping very slowly into the Cascade Mtns this
morning. A shortwave disturbance rounding the upper level trough
of lower pressure in the eastern Pacific will begin to nudge the
mid level front eastward today. However, this will be slow going
this afternoon and then speed up a bit more overnight tonight.
Models are showing a slower progression of the front today than
previously forecasted. I reduced sky cover across much of the
eastern half of the forecast area today. Best chances for rain
through this afternoon will be in the Cascades over to the
Okanogan Highlands down to the Waterville Plateau. This rain
is expected to eventually nudge into the western basin by the late
afternoon before spreading across into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. High temperatures were lowered a little bit in the
Okanogan Vly and Wenatchee Area. Omak and Wenatchee will warm up a
little bit more through the early afternoon, but are not expected
to get out of the low 60s with clouds increasing and rain expect
to begin soon. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at KEAT
this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some light
rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS. MVFR cigs/vis will be
possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at KEAT.
This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  58  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  70  45  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        70  45  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       65  47  58  42  52  47 /  10  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      66  44  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        68  44  50  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     63  47  65  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      61  47  64  46  56  47 /  70  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           61  44  61  43  52  44 /  70  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 201825
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1125 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is creeping very slowly into the Cascade Mtns this
morning. A shortwave disturbance rounding the upper level trough
of lower pressure in the eastern Pacific will begin to nudge the
mid level front eastward today. However, this will be slow going
this afternoon and then speed up a bit more overnight tonight.
Models are showing a slower progression of the front today than
previously forecasted. I reduced sky cover across much of the
eastern half of the forecast area today. Best chances for rain
through this afternoon will be in the Cascades over to the
Okanogan Highlands down to the Waterville Plateau. This rain
is expected to eventually nudge into the western basin by the late
afternoon before spreading across into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. High temperatures were lowered a little bit in the
Okanogan Vly and Wenatchee Area. Omak and Wenatchee will warm up a
little bit more through the early afternoon, but are not expected
to get out of the low 60s with clouds increasing and rain expect
to begin soon. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at KEAT
this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some light
rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS. MVFR cigs/vis will be
possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at KEAT.
This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  58  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  70  45  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        70  45  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       65  47  58  42  52  47 /  10  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      66  44  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        68  44  50  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     63  47  65  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      61  47  64  46  56  47 /  70  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           61  44  61  43  52  44 /  70  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 201825
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1125 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is creeping very slowly into the Cascade Mtns this
morning. A shortwave disturbance rounding the upper level trough
of lower pressure in the eastern Pacific will begin to nudge the
mid level front eastward today. However, this will be slow going
this afternoon and then speed up a bit more overnight tonight.
Models are showing a slower progression of the front today than
previously forecasted. I reduced sky cover across much of the
eastern half of the forecast area today. Best chances for rain
through this afternoon will be in the Cascades over to the
Okanogan Highlands down to the Waterville Plateau. This rain
is expected to eventually nudge into the western basin by the late
afternoon before spreading across into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. High temperatures were lowered a little bit in the
Okanogan Vly and Wenatchee Area. Omak and Wenatchee will warm up a
little bit more through the early afternoon, but are not expected
to get out of the low 60s with clouds increasing and rain expect
to begin soon. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at KEAT
this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some light
rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS. MVFR cigs/vis will be
possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at KEAT.
This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  58  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  70  45  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        70  45  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       65  47  58  42  52  47 /  10  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      66  44  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        68  44  50  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     63  47  65  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      61  47  64  46  56  47 /  70  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           61  44  61  43  52  44 /  70  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 201825
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1125 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is creeping very slowly into the Cascade Mtns this
morning. A shortwave disturbance rounding the upper level trough
of lower pressure in the eastern Pacific will begin to nudge the
mid level front eastward today. However, this will be slow going
this afternoon and then speed up a bit more overnight tonight.
Models are showing a slower progression of the front today than
previously forecasted. I reduced sky cover across much of the
eastern half of the forecast area today. Best chances for rain
through this afternoon will be in the Cascades over to the
Okanogan Highlands down to the Waterville Plateau. This rain
is expected to eventually nudge into the western basin by the late
afternoon before spreading across into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. High temperatures were lowered a little bit in the
Okanogan Vly and Wenatchee Area. Omak and Wenatchee will warm up a
little bit more through the early afternoon, but are not expected
to get out of the low 60s with clouds increasing and rain expect
to begin soon. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at KEAT
this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some light
rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS. MVFR cigs/vis will be
possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at KEAT.
This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  58  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  70  45  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        70  45  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       65  47  58  42  52  47 /  10  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      66  44  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        68  44  50  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     63  47  65  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      61  47  64  46  56  47 /  70  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           61  44  61  43  52  44 /  70  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 201631
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG
THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF I-5 WITH RAIN BANDS TO THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
STILL APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SEEING
ONE DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO PUSH THE TEXT WORDING OVER TO POST FRONTAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WORDING.

AN EARLY LOOK AT MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD AGAINST
THE RECENT OBS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR PAST EVENTS
PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF
TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS MENTIONED BELOW AND IN OUR
SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS...ITS TIME TO ENSURE DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE
READY TO RECEIVE A PROLONGED SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB WITH TEXT
PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING
AND HAS SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS
ANOTHER VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS
INSTABILITY A BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD
SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE...
KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
MORE DOMINANT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAINFALL AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
FREQUENT TONIGHT AFTER 02Z.
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ASHORE THIS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO TUE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE COMING IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS. W SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT AROUND 15 SEC IS EXPECTED
TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE WATERS FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TUE
NIGHT...UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE WATERS. THE WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT TUE NIGHT...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201631
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG
THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF I-5 WITH RAIN BANDS TO THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
STILL APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SEEING
ONE DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO PUSH THE TEXT WORDING OVER TO POST FRONTAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WORDING.

AN EARLY LOOK AT MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD AGAINST
THE RECENT OBS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR PAST EVENTS
PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF
TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS MENTIONED BELOW AND IN OUR
SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS...ITS TIME TO ENSURE DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE
READY TO RECEIVE A PROLONGED SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB WITH TEXT
PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING
AND HAS SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS
ANOTHER VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS
INSTABILITY A BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD
SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE...
KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
MORE DOMINANT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAINFALL AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
FREQUENT TONIGHT AFTER 02Z.
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ASHORE THIS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO TUE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE COMING IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS. W SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT AROUND 15 SEC IS EXPECTED
TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE WATERS FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TUE
NIGHT...UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE WATERS. THE WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT TUE NIGHT...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201631
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED JUST INSIDE 130W ALONG
THE PACNW COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF A N/S ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF I-5 WITH RAIN BANDS TO THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
STILL APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SEEING
ONE DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO PUSH THE TEXT WORDING OVER TO POST FRONTAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WORDING.

AN EARLY LOOK AT MORNING MODEL RUN DATA MAINTAINS CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT QPF FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD AGAINST
THE RECENT OBS. ESRL REFORECAST ANALOGS OF SIMILAR PAST EVENTS
PROVIDE SIMILAR QPF AMOUNTS AND PATTERN GIVING FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF
TOTAL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS MENTIONED BELOW AND IN OUR
SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS...ITS TIME TO ENSURE DRAINS AND CULVERTS ARE
READY TO RECEIVE A PROLONGED SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB WITH TEXT
PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING
AND HAS SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS
ANOTHER VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS
INSTABILITY A BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD
SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
RIDGING PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
MONTHS. AS SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE...
KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...WITH FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
MORE DOMINANT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAINFALL AND
SHOWERS. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
FREQUENT TONIGHT AFTER 02Z.
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ASHORE THIS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO TUE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE COMING IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS. W SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT AROUND 15 SEC IS EXPECTED
TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE
THROUGHOUT THE WATERS FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TUE
NIGHT...UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE WATERS. THE WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD SOME AND BECOME STEEPER TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT TUE NIGHT...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 201535
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 AM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE AIR
WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ISOLATED LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS MORE STABLE AIR.

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE OLYMPICS WHICH COULD PUSH THE
SKOKOMISH TO FLOOD WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY FOR THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT LULL IN THE RAINS FOR PART OF
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE
SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES
WESTERN WA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...MAYBE SUN NIGHT OR
MON. THEN ANOTHER WET PAC SYSTEM WILL DRAG THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT OR TUE. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO
FLOOD STAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
OLYMPICS OVER THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING
RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. AN HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE
SKOKOMISH LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR OTHER AREAS RIVERS...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST.

KSEA...RAIN AT TIMES...BECOMING SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SE WIND
4-6 KT...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE EASING. W-SW SWELL
OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WILL WAIT TO
ISSUE THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.  WINDS OVER THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS N OF ADMIRALTY
INLET. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS MAY HAVE TO EXPAND GALE WATCH TO INCLUDE WEST
ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT. AGAIN...WILL MAKE THAT DECISION FOR
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR OR
THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND FRIDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE COAST...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 201535
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 AM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE AIR
WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ISOLATED LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS MORE STABLE AIR.

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE OLYMPICS WHICH COULD PUSH THE
SKOKOMISH TO FLOOD WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY FOR THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT LULL IN THE RAINS FOR PART OF
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE
SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES
WESTERN WA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...MAYBE SUN NIGHT OR
MON. THEN ANOTHER WET PAC SYSTEM WILL DRAG THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT OR TUE. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO
FLOOD STAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
OLYMPICS OVER THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING
RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. AN HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE
SKOKOMISH LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR OTHER AREAS RIVERS...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST.

KSEA...RAIN AT TIMES...BECOMING SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SE WIND
4-6 KT...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE EASING. W-SW SWELL
OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WILL WAIT TO
ISSUE THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.  WINDS OVER THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS N OF ADMIRALTY
INLET. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS MAY HAVE TO EXPAND GALE WATCH TO INCLUDE WEST
ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT. AGAIN...WILL MAKE THAT DECISION FOR
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR OR
THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND FRIDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE COAST...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 201535
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 AM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE AIR
WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ISOLATED LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS MORE STABLE AIR.

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE OLYMPICS WHICH COULD PUSH THE
SKOKOMISH TO FLOOD WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY FOR THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT LULL IN THE RAINS FOR PART OF
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE
SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES
WESTERN WA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...MAYBE SUN NIGHT OR
MON. THEN ANOTHER WET PAC SYSTEM WILL DRAG THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT OR TUE. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO
FLOOD STAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
OLYMPICS OVER THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING
RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. AN HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE
SKOKOMISH LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR OTHER AREAS RIVERS...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST.

KSEA...RAIN AT TIMES...BECOMING SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SE WIND
4-6 KT...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE EASING. W-SW SWELL
OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WILL WAIT TO
ISSUE THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.  WINDS OVER THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS N OF ADMIRALTY
INLET. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS MAY HAVE TO EXPAND GALE WATCH TO INCLUDE WEST
ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT. AGAIN...WILL MAKE THAT DECISION FOR
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR OR
THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND FRIDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE COAST...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 201535
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 AM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE AIR
WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ISOLATED LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS MORE STABLE AIR.

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE OLYMPICS WHICH COULD PUSH THE
SKOKOMISH TO FLOOD WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY FOR THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT LULL IN THE RAINS FOR PART OF
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE
SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES
WESTERN WA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...MAYBE SUN NIGHT OR
MON. THEN ANOTHER WET PAC SYSTEM WILL DRAG THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT OR TUE. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO
FLOOD STAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
OLYMPICS OVER THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING
RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. AN HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE
SKOKOMISH LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR OTHER AREAS RIVERS...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST.

KSEA...RAIN AT TIMES...BECOMING SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SE WIND
4-6 KT...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE EASING. W-SW SWELL
OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WILL WAIT TO
ISSUE THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.  WINDS OVER THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS N OF ADMIRALTY
INLET. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS MAY HAVE TO EXPAND GALE WATCH TO INCLUDE WEST
ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT. AGAIN...WILL MAKE THAT DECISION FOR
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR OR
THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND FRIDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE COAST...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KOTX 201227
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
527 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The main focus for this period will revolve
around deep offshore trough and elongated cold front currently
hung up over western Washington. The front contains a nice plume
of precipitable water ranging from 1-1.25 inches with widespread
precipitation according to radar imagery. While we expect the
front to translate eastward through the day and tonight...the
question is how fast will it move. Thus far it has made very
little eastward progress due to continued digging on the backside
of the trough. However that digging will likely cease soon as
water vapor imagery is showing one last chunk of energy pushing
into the southwest quadrant of the offshore trough. Consequently
we will see a slowly increasing pop trend through the
day...beginning near the Cascades this morning...possibly
impacting Omak...Wenatchee...and most of the lee valleys.
Precipitation amounts won`t be heavy as the front will contain at
least some weak downslope impacts due to south-southwest mid-level
flow passing over the Cascades. By afternoon...the front will
likely shift into the eastern portions of the Columbia Basin and
Okanogan Highlands...with increasing downslope flow forming in the
lee of the Cascades. Odds are growing...that extreme eastern
Washington and the Panhandle will be dry for most of the day.

By Tonight...the front will move into extreme eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle...increasing pops significantly. The
location standing the best chance of precipitation will be over
the SE corner of Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. This
focus will be based on the positioning of the front combined with
the ejection of the upstream upper level trough. Models in good
agreement that the base of the trough will track NE and moving
into eastern Oregon by morning. This allows for good upper level
jet difluence...and fair q-vector convergence. This amounts to
rather strong and deep lifting potential which in turn will likely
lead to widespread precipitation over this area. The good threat
of precipitation will likely persist through Tuesday morning.
After this time...the base of the upper level trough is expected
to shift into SE Idaho with temporary shortwave ridging filling in
over the Inland NW. This will result in lower chances for
precipitation...except perhaps for the Camas Prairie...and
southern Shoshone County. Precipitation amounts from this
evening...will likely show a great variation...with the SE
quadrant of the forecast area potentially seeing the most
precipitation. The NAM suggests widespread amounts ranging from
0.25-0.50 stretching from Sandpoint to the Blues and points east.
Meanwhile the GFS...SREF...and ECMWF keeps the heaviest
precipitation locked south and east of a line from the the Silver
Valley to Lewiston. Aside from precipitation...temperatures will
continue to exhibit their warm string...with highs today in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will likely cool toward normal
on Tuesday. fx

Tuesday night through Friday...

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

A large closed off the Central British Columbia Coast along 140W
will result in a wet southwesterly flow over the region. An
atmospheric river with subtropical moisture will get aimed at the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night before sagging south into
northern Oregon and southeast Washington on Thursday. However
continued waves coming around the low in the southwest flow will
keep a wet pattern in place. Strong mid level flow with 850mb
winds out of the south- southwest at 25-40 kts will provide strong
upslope flow into the northern mountains...with the Cascade crest
area expected to receive the highest rainfall totals. Models
continue to show the potential for as much as 2-3 inches of rain
for the Cascade crest and 1-2 inches for the northern mountains.
The burn scar areas will have to be monitored with these rain
amounts.  The Spokane area and Central Panhandle Mountains should
also see appreciable rain with around 0.5-0.75 inches expected.
Snow levels around 6000 feet will result in heavy accumulations
for the higher Cascade peaks. Cloud cover and occasionally breezy
south winds will keep lows temperatures on the mild side...while
day time highs should be near normal.  JW

Friday night through Monday night: An extended period of unsettled
weather is expected over the Inland Northwest during this period.
The models have come in once again wetter for the end of the work
week into the first part of the weekend. The trough will finally
move inland Friday night/Saturday, which will bring another round
of showers and high elevation snowfall. But this will not be the
end of the precipitation. Yet another trough sets up off the
coast, which could bring another extended period of wet weather.
Early indications are that another atmospheric river will set up
over/near the Inland Northwest, which would cause some flooding
concerns.

This forecast raised precipitation chances each day. If there
were a period where lower rainfall chances were warranted it would
be Sunday afternoon. The cloud cover and precipitation will allow
for afternoon temperatures to fall closer to normal, and even be
right at normal late in the weekend. However, the cloud cover
should also keep low temperatures a bit warmer than normal. ty&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS:12z TAFS: Slow moving cold front currently west of the
Cascades will trudge slowly east through the forecast period. This
will result in an increasing cloud trend for All forecast sites
as well as an increasing chance of precipitation. Through
00z...The main chances for -ra will impact eat followed by Mwh.
After 00z...the Threat will spread to the remaining sites. Precip
amounts will be fairly light for mwh and eat and as such we
primarly expect vfr conditions. Rainfall potential will increase
After 00z...with moderate rainfall possible for puw and Lws aft
06z. We stuck with vfr cigs...however Brief mvfr conditions will
be possible if rainfall becomes heavy and persistent enough. Other
concern is patchy hz/br impacting mwh/eat this morning. Satellite
shows nothing in these areas so suspect its rather local and
should burn off between 16-18z. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  57  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        67  44  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       66  45  57  42  52  47 /  30  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      67  43  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        67  43  51  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     68  47  63  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      65  47  63  46  56  47 /  60  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           64  44  61  43  52  44 /  60  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 201024
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONGER AND
MUCH WETTER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
WESTERN WA OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE INTERIOR. RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING WITH STEADY
RAIN COMING TO AN END. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. SO
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER
INLAND AND WEAKENS.

WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON TUE ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS.

EXPECT A WET PERIOD OF WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF AK STEERS A PLUME OF MOISTURE THROUGH WESTERN WA.
THE COAST MAY SEE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES IN
THE INTERIOR AND 1-3 INCHES IN THE CASCADES. THE SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 6000-7000 FT. MODELS SHOW THE HEAVY PRECIP COMING IN BATCHES
SO WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN BETWEEN...ALTHOUGH THAT IS RATHER
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY. THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR WILL ALSO
SEE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SAG SOUTH WED NIGHT WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVY PRECIP SOUTH INTO OREGON.

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THUR BUT WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING
AT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...STEADY HEAVY PRECIP NOT EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES WESTERN WA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO
BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER...MAYBE SUN NIGHT OR MON. THEN ANOTHER WET PAC SYSTEM
WILL DRAG THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT OR TUE. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO
FLOOD STAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
OLYMPICS OVER THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING
RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST AND SW INTERIOR.

KSEA...RAIN AT TIMES...BECOMING SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING. SE WIND
4-6 KT...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE INLAND WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOW-END
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE EASING. W-SW
SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SMALL
CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR HAVE EASED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OFFSHORE TUESDAY...AND MOVE NE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS N OF ADMIRALTY
INLET. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. YET
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND
FRIDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE COAST...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLET WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
255 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The main focus for this period will revolve
around deep offshore trough and elongated cold front currently
hung up over western Washington. The front contains a nice plume
of precipitable water ranging from 1-1.25 inches with widespread
precipitation according to radar imagery. While we expect the
front to translate eastward through the day and tonight...the
question is how fast will it move. Thus far it has made very
little eastward progress due to continued digging on the backside
of the trough. However that digging will likely cease soon as
water vapor imagery is showing one last chunk of energy pushing
into the southwest quadrant of the offshore trough. Consequently
we will see a slowly increasing pop trend through the
day...beginning near the Cascades this morning...possibly
impacting Omak...Wenatchee...and most of the lee valleys.
Precipitation amounts won`t be heavy as the front will contain at
least some weak downslope impacts due to south-southwest mid-level
flow passing over the Cascades. By afternoon...the front will
likely shift into the eastern portions of the Columbia Basin and
Okanogan Highlands...with increasing downslope flow forming in the
lee of the Cascades. Odds are growing...that extreme eastern
Washington and the Panhandle will be dry for most of the day.

By Tonight...the front will move into extreme eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle...increasing pops significantly. The
location standing the best chance of precipitation will be over
the SE corner of Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. This
focus will be based on the positioning of the front combined with
the ejection of the upstream upper level trough. Models in good
agreement that the base of the trough will track NE and moving
into eastern Oregon by morning. This allows for good upper level
jet difluence...and fair q-vector convergence. This amounts to
rather strong and deep lifting potential which in turn will likely
lead to widespread precipitation over this area. The good threat
of precipitation will likely persist through Tuesday morning.
After this time...the base of the upper level trough is expected
to shift into SE Idaho with temporary shortwave ridging filling in
over the Inland NW. This will result in lower chances for
precipitation...except perhaps for the Camas Prairie...and
southern Shoshone County. Precipitation amounts from this
evening...will likely show a great variation...with the SE
quadrant of the forecast area potentially seeing the most
precipitation. The NAM suggests widespread amounts ranging from
0.25-0.50 stretching from Sandpoint to the Blues and points east.
Meanwhile the GFS...SREF...and ECMWF keeps the heaviest
precipitation locked south and east of a line from the the Silver
Valley to Lewiston. Aside from precipitation...temperatures will
continue to exhibit their warm string...with highs today in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will likely cool toward normal
on Tuesday. fx

Tuesday night through Friday...

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

A large closed off the Central British Columbia Coast along 140W
will result in a wet southwesterly flow over the region. An
atmospheric river with subtropical moisture will get aimed at the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night before sagging south into
northern Oregon and southeast Washington on Thursday. However
continued waves coming around the low in the southwest flow will
keep a wet pattern in place. Strong mid level flow with 850mb
winds out of the south- southwest at 25-40 kts will provide strong
upslope flow into the northern mountains...with the Cascade crest
area expected to receive the highest rainfall totals. Models
continue to show the potential for as much as 2-3 inches of rain
for the Cascade crest and 1-2 inches for the northern mountains.
The burn scar areas will have to be monitored with these rain
amounts.  The Spokane area and Central Panhandle Mountains should
also see appreciable rain with around 0.5-0.75 inches expected.
Snow levels around 6000 feet will result in heavy accumulations
for the higher Cascade peaks. Cloud cover and occasionally breezy
south winds will keep lows temperatures on the mild side...while
day time highs should be near normal.  JW

Friday night through Monday night: An extended period of unsettled
weather is expected over the Inland Northwest during this period.
The models have come in once again wetter for the end of the work
week into the first part of the weekend. The trough will finally
move inland Friday night/Saturday, which will bring another round
of showers and high elevation snowfall. But this will not be the
end of the precipitation. Yet another trough sets up off the
coast, which could bring another extended period of wet weather.
Early indications are that another atmospheric river will set up
over/near the Inland Northwest, which would cause some flooding
concerns.

This forecast raised precipitation chances each day. If there
were a period where lower rainfall chances were warranted it would
be Sunday afternoon. The cloud cover and precipitation will allow
for afternoon temperatures to fall closer to normal, and even be
right at normal late in the weekend. However, the cloud cover
should also keep low temperatures a bit warmer than normal. ty&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  57  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        67  44  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       66  45  57  42  52  47 /  30  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      67  43  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        67  43  51  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     68  47  63  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      65  47  63  46  56  47 /  60  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           64  44  61  43  52  44 /  60  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
255 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The main focus for this period will revolve
around deep offshore trough and elongated cold front currently
hung up over western Washington. The front contains a nice plume
of precipitable water ranging from 1-1.25 inches with widespread
precipitation according to radar imagery. While we expect the
front to translate eastward through the day and tonight...the
question is how fast will it move. Thus far it has made very
little eastward progress due to continued digging on the backside
of the trough. However that digging will likely cease soon as
water vapor imagery is showing one last chunk of energy pushing
into the southwest quadrant of the offshore trough. Consequently
we will see a slowly increasing pop trend through the
day...beginning near the Cascades this morning...possibly
impacting Omak...Wenatchee...and most of the lee valleys.
Precipitation amounts won`t be heavy as the front will contain at
least some weak downslope impacts due to south-southwest mid-level
flow passing over the Cascades. By afternoon...the front will
likely shift into the eastern portions of the Columbia Basin and
Okanogan Highlands...with increasing downslope flow forming in the
lee of the Cascades. Odds are growing...that extreme eastern
Washington and the Panhandle will be dry for most of the day.

By Tonight...the front will move into extreme eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle...increasing pops significantly. The
location standing the best chance of precipitation will be over
the SE corner of Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. This
focus will be based on the positioning of the front combined with
the ejection of the upstream upper level trough. Models in good
agreement that the base of the trough will track NE and moving
into eastern Oregon by morning. This allows for good upper level
jet difluence...and fair q-vector convergence. This amounts to
rather strong and deep lifting potential which in turn will likely
lead to widespread precipitation over this area. The good threat
of precipitation will likely persist through Tuesday morning.
After this time...the base of the upper level trough is expected
to shift into SE Idaho with temporary shortwave ridging filling in
over the Inland NW. This will result in lower chances for
precipitation...except perhaps for the Camas Prairie...and
southern Shoshone County. Precipitation amounts from this
evening...will likely show a great variation...with the SE
quadrant of the forecast area potentially seeing the most
precipitation. The NAM suggests widespread amounts ranging from
0.25-0.50 stretching from Sandpoint to the Blues and points east.
Meanwhile the GFS...SREF...and ECMWF keeps the heaviest
precipitation locked south and east of a line from the the Silver
Valley to Lewiston. Aside from precipitation...temperatures will
continue to exhibit their warm string...with highs today in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will likely cool toward normal
on Tuesday. fx

Tuesday night through Friday...

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

A large closed off the Central British Columbia Coast along 140W
will result in a wet southwesterly flow over the region. An
atmospheric river with subtropical moisture will get aimed at the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night before sagging south into
northern Oregon and southeast Washington on Thursday. However
continued waves coming around the low in the southwest flow will
keep a wet pattern in place. Strong mid level flow with 850mb
winds out of the south- southwest at 25-40 kts will provide strong
upslope flow into the northern mountains...with the Cascade crest
area expected to receive the highest rainfall totals. Models
continue to show the potential for as much as 2-3 inches of rain
for the Cascade crest and 1-2 inches for the northern mountains.
The burn scar areas will have to be monitored with these rain
amounts.  The Spokane area and Central Panhandle Mountains should
also see appreciable rain with around 0.5-0.75 inches expected.
Snow levels around 6000 feet will result in heavy accumulations
for the higher Cascade peaks. Cloud cover and occasionally breezy
south winds will keep lows temperatures on the mild side...while
day time highs should be near normal.  JW

Friday night through Monday night: An extended period of unsettled
weather is expected over the Inland Northwest during this period.
The models have come in once again wetter for the end of the work
week into the first part of the weekend. The trough will finally
move inland Friday night/Saturday, which will bring another round
of showers and high elevation snowfall. But this will not be the
end of the precipitation. Yet another trough sets up off the
coast, which could bring another extended period of wet weather.
Early indications are that another atmospheric river will set up
over/near the Inland Northwest, which would cause some flooding
concerns.

This forecast raised precipitation chances each day. If there
were a period where lower rainfall chances were warranted it would
be Sunday afternoon. The cloud cover and precipitation will allow
for afternoon temperatures to fall closer to normal, and even be
right at normal late in the weekend. However, the cloud cover
should also keep low temperatures a bit warmer than normal. ty&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  57  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        67  44  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       66  45  57  42  52  47 /  30  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      67  43  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        67  43  51  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     68  47  63  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      65  47  63  46  56  47 /  60  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           64  44  61  43  52  44 /  60  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
255 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The main focus for this period will revolve
around deep offshore trough and elongated cold front currently
hung up over western Washington. The front contains a nice plume
of precipitable water ranging from 1-1.25 inches with widespread
precipitation according to radar imagery. While we expect the
front to translate eastward through the day and tonight...the
question is how fast will it move. Thus far it has made very
little eastward progress due to continued digging on the backside
of the trough. However that digging will likely cease soon as
water vapor imagery is showing one last chunk of energy pushing
into the southwest quadrant of the offshore trough. Consequently
we will see a slowly increasing pop trend through the
day...beginning near the Cascades this morning...possibly
impacting Omak...Wenatchee...and most of the lee valleys.
Precipitation amounts won`t be heavy as the front will contain at
least some weak downslope impacts due to south-southwest mid-level
flow passing over the Cascades. By afternoon...the front will
likely shift into the eastern portions of the Columbia Basin and
Okanogan Highlands...with increasing downslope flow forming in the
lee of the Cascades. Odds are growing...that extreme eastern
Washington and the Panhandle will be dry for most of the day.

By Tonight...the front will move into extreme eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle...increasing pops significantly. The
location standing the best chance of precipitation will be over
the SE corner of Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. This
focus will be based on the positioning of the front combined with
the ejection of the upstream upper level trough. Models in good
agreement that the base of the trough will track NE and moving
into eastern Oregon by morning. This allows for good upper level
jet difluence...and fair q-vector convergence. This amounts to
rather strong and deep lifting potential which in turn will likely
lead to widespread precipitation over this area. The good threat
of precipitation will likely persist through Tuesday morning.
After this time...the base of the upper level trough is expected
to shift into SE Idaho with temporary shortwave ridging filling in
over the Inland NW. This will result in lower chances for
precipitation...except perhaps for the Camas Prairie...and
southern Shoshone County. Precipitation amounts from this
evening...will likely show a great variation...with the SE
quadrant of the forecast area potentially seeing the most
precipitation. The NAM suggests widespread amounts ranging from
0.25-0.50 stretching from Sandpoint to the Blues and points east.
Meanwhile the GFS...SREF...and ECMWF keeps the heaviest
precipitation locked south and east of a line from the the Silver
Valley to Lewiston. Aside from precipitation...temperatures will
continue to exhibit their warm string...with highs today in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will likely cool toward normal
on Tuesday. fx

Tuesday night through Friday...

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

A large closed off the Central British Columbia Coast along 140W
will result in a wet southwesterly flow over the region. An
atmospheric river with subtropical moisture will get aimed at the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night before sagging south into
northern Oregon and southeast Washington on Thursday. However
continued waves coming around the low in the southwest flow will
keep a wet pattern in place. Strong mid level flow with 850mb
winds out of the south- southwest at 25-40 kts will provide strong
upslope flow into the northern mountains...with the Cascade crest
area expected to receive the highest rainfall totals. Models
continue to show the potential for as much as 2-3 inches of rain
for the Cascade crest and 1-2 inches for the northern mountains.
The burn scar areas will have to be monitored with these rain
amounts.  The Spokane area and Central Panhandle Mountains should
also see appreciable rain with around 0.5-0.75 inches expected.
Snow levels around 6000 feet will result in heavy accumulations
for the higher Cascade peaks. Cloud cover and occasionally breezy
south winds will keep lows temperatures on the mild side...while
day time highs should be near normal.  JW

Friday night through Monday night: An extended period of unsettled
weather is expected over the Inland Northwest during this period.
The models have come in once again wetter for the end of the work
week into the first part of the weekend. The trough will finally
move inland Friday night/Saturday, which will bring another round
of showers and high elevation snowfall. But this will not be the
end of the precipitation. Yet another trough sets up off the
coast, which could bring another extended period of wet weather.
Early indications are that another atmospheric river will set up
over/near the Inland Northwest, which would cause some flooding
concerns.

This forecast raised precipitation chances each day. If there
were a period where lower rainfall chances were warranted it would
be Sunday afternoon. The cloud cover and precipitation will allow
for afternoon temperatures to fall closer to normal, and even be
right at normal late in the weekend. However, the cloud cover
should also keep low temperatures a bit warmer than normal. ty&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  57  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        67  44  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       66  45  57  42  52  47 /  30  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      67  43  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        67  43  51  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     68  47  63  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      65  47  63  46  56  47 /  60  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           64  44  61  43  52  44 /  60  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
255 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The main focus for this period will revolve
around deep offshore trough and elongated cold front currently
hung up over western Washington. The front contains a nice plume
of precipitable water ranging from 1-1.25 inches with widespread
precipitation according to radar imagery. While we expect the
front to translate eastward through the day and tonight...the
question is how fast will it move. Thus far it has made very
little eastward progress due to continued digging on the backside
of the trough. However that digging will likely cease soon as
water vapor imagery is showing one last chunk of energy pushing
into the southwest quadrant of the offshore trough. Consequently
we will see a slowly increasing pop trend through the
day...beginning near the Cascades this morning...possibly
impacting Omak...Wenatchee...and most of the lee valleys.
Precipitation amounts won`t be heavy as the front will contain at
least some weak downslope impacts due to south-southwest mid-level
flow passing over the Cascades. By afternoon...the front will
likely shift into the eastern portions of the Columbia Basin and
Okanogan Highlands...with increasing downslope flow forming in the
lee of the Cascades. Odds are growing...that extreme eastern
Washington and the Panhandle will be dry for most of the day.

By Tonight...the front will move into extreme eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle...increasing pops significantly. The
location standing the best chance of precipitation will be over
the SE corner of Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. This
focus will be based on the positioning of the front combined with
the ejection of the upstream upper level trough. Models in good
agreement that the base of the trough will track NE and moving
into eastern Oregon by morning. This allows for good upper level
jet difluence...and fair q-vector convergence. This amounts to
rather strong and deep lifting potential which in turn will likely
lead to widespread precipitation over this area. The good threat
of precipitation will likely persist through Tuesday morning.
After this time...the base of the upper level trough is expected
to shift into SE Idaho with temporary shortwave ridging filling in
over the Inland NW. This will result in lower chances for
precipitation...except perhaps for the Camas Prairie...and
southern Shoshone County. Precipitation amounts from this
evening...will likely show a great variation...with the SE
quadrant of the forecast area potentially seeing the most
precipitation. The NAM suggests widespread amounts ranging from
0.25-0.50 stretching from Sandpoint to the Blues and points east.
Meanwhile the GFS...SREF...and ECMWF keeps the heaviest
precipitation locked south and east of a line from the the Silver
Valley to Lewiston. Aside from precipitation...temperatures will
continue to exhibit their warm string...with highs today in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will likely cool toward normal
on Tuesday. fx

Tuesday night through Friday...

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

A large closed off the Central British Columbia Coast along 140W
will result in a wet southwesterly flow over the region. An
atmospheric river with subtropical moisture will get aimed at the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night before sagging south into
northern Oregon and southeast Washington on Thursday. However
continued waves coming around the low in the southwest flow will
keep a wet pattern in place. Strong mid level flow with 850mb
winds out of the south- southwest at 25-40 kts will provide strong
upslope flow into the northern mountains...with the Cascade crest
area expected to receive the highest rainfall totals. Models
continue to show the potential for as much as 2-3 inches of rain
for the Cascade crest and 1-2 inches for the northern mountains.
The burn scar areas will have to be monitored with these rain
amounts.  The Spokane area and Central Panhandle Mountains should
also see appreciable rain with around 0.5-0.75 inches expected.
Snow levels around 6000 feet will result in heavy accumulations
for the higher Cascade peaks. Cloud cover and occasionally breezy
south winds will keep lows temperatures on the mild side...while
day time highs should be near normal.  JW

Friday night through Monday night: An extended period of unsettled
weather is expected over the Inland Northwest during this period.
The models have come in once again wetter for the end of the work
week into the first part of the weekend. The trough will finally
move inland Friday night/Saturday, which will bring another round
of showers and high elevation snowfall. But this will not be the
end of the precipitation. Yet another trough sets up off the
coast, which could bring another extended period of wet weather.
Early indications are that another atmospheric river will set up
over/near the Inland Northwest, which would cause some flooding
concerns.

This forecast raised precipitation chances each day. If there
were a period where lower rainfall chances were warranted it would
be Sunday afternoon. The cloud cover and precipitation will allow
for afternoon temperatures to fall closer to normal, and even be
right at normal late in the weekend. However, the cloud cover
should also keep low temperatures a bit warmer than normal. ty&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  57  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        67  44  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       66  45  57  42  52  47 /  30  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      67  43  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        67  43  51  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     68  47  63  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      65  47  63  46  56  47 /  60  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           64  44  61  43  52  44 /  60  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
255 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The main focus for this period will revolve
around deep offshore trough and elongated cold front currently
hung up over western Washington. The front contains a nice plume
of precipitable water ranging from 1-1.25 inches with widespread
precipitation according to radar imagery. While we expect the
front to translate eastward through the day and tonight...the
question is how fast will it move. Thus far it has made very
little eastward progress due to continued digging on the backside
of the trough. However that digging will likely cease soon as
water vapor imagery is showing one last chunk of energy pushing
into the southwest quadrant of the offshore trough. Consequently
we will see a slowly increasing pop trend through the
day...beginning near the Cascades this morning...possibly
impacting Omak...Wenatchee...and most of the lee valleys.
Precipitation amounts won`t be heavy as the front will contain at
least some weak downslope impacts due to south-southwest mid-level
flow passing over the Cascades. By afternoon...the front will
likely shift into the eastern portions of the Columbia Basin and
Okanogan Highlands...with increasing downslope flow forming in the
lee of the Cascades. Odds are growing...that extreme eastern
Washington and the Panhandle will be dry for most of the day.

By Tonight...the front will move into extreme eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle...increasing pops significantly. The
location standing the best chance of precipitation will be over
the SE corner of Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. This
focus will be based on the positioning of the front combined with
the ejection of the upstream upper level trough. Models in good
agreement that the base of the trough will track NE and moving
into eastern Oregon by morning. This allows for good upper level
jet difluence...and fair q-vector convergence. This amounts to
rather strong and deep lifting potential which in turn will likely
lead to widespread precipitation over this area. The good threat
of precipitation will likely persist through Tuesday morning.
After this time...the base of the upper level trough is expected
to shift into SE Idaho with temporary shortwave ridging filling in
over the Inland NW. This will result in lower chances for
precipitation...except perhaps for the Camas Prairie...and
southern Shoshone County. Precipitation amounts from this
evening...will likely show a great variation...with the SE
quadrant of the forecast area potentially seeing the most
precipitation. The NAM suggests widespread amounts ranging from
0.25-0.50 stretching from Sandpoint to the Blues and points east.
Meanwhile the GFS...SREF...and ECMWF keeps the heaviest
precipitation locked south and east of a line from the the Silver
Valley to Lewiston. Aside from precipitation...temperatures will
continue to exhibit their warm string...with highs today in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will likely cool toward normal
on Tuesday. fx

Tuesday night through Friday...

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

A large closed off the Central British Columbia Coast along 140W
will result in a wet southwesterly flow over the region. An
atmospheric river with subtropical moisture will get aimed at the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night before sagging south into
northern Oregon and southeast Washington on Thursday. However
continued waves coming around the low in the southwest flow will
keep a wet pattern in place. Strong mid level flow with 850mb
winds out of the south- southwest at 25-40 kts will provide strong
upslope flow into the northern mountains...with the Cascade crest
area expected to receive the highest rainfall totals. Models
continue to show the potential for as much as 2-3 inches of rain
for the Cascade crest and 1-2 inches for the northern mountains.
The burn scar areas will have to be monitored with these rain
amounts.  The Spokane area and Central Panhandle Mountains should
also see appreciable rain with around 0.5-0.75 inches expected.
Snow levels around 6000 feet will result in heavy accumulations
for the higher Cascade peaks. Cloud cover and occasionally breezy
south winds will keep lows temperatures on the mild side...while
day time highs should be near normal.  JW

Friday night through Monday night: An extended period of unsettled
weather is expected over the Inland Northwest during this period.
The models have come in once again wetter for the end of the work
week into the first part of the weekend. The trough will finally
move inland Friday night/Saturday, which will bring another round
of showers and high elevation snowfall. But this will not be the
end of the precipitation. Yet another trough sets up off the
coast, which could bring another extended period of wet weather.
Early indications are that another atmospheric river will set up
over/near the Inland Northwest, which would cause some flooding
concerns.

This forecast raised precipitation chances each day. If there
were a period where lower rainfall chances were warranted it would
be Sunday afternoon. The cloud cover and precipitation will allow
for afternoon temperatures to fall closer to normal, and even be
right at normal late in the weekend. However, the cloud cover
should also keep low temperatures a bit warmer than normal. ty&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  57  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        67  44  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       66  45  57  42  52  47 /  30  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      67  43  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        67  43  51  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     68  47  63  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      65  47  63  46  56  47 /  60  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           64  44  61  43  52  44 /  60  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 200928
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS
SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS ANOTHER
VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY A
BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER
TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR NOW INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD HAVE
AREAS OF MVFR FURTHER INLAND UNTIL 17Z. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AFTER 17Z...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING. AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY...WITH RAIN UNTIL 17Z...THEN
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 12Z TO 17Z AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
OPS AREA. THEN ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNDER SHOWERS. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...BROAD LOW PRES STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK.

FIRST IS APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT FOR GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY RELAX AT TIMES...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER
REGION...WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SO...WILL EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OUT THROUGH TUE.

NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL APPROACH REGION LATER
TUE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. LOOKS LIKE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KT TUE NIGHT.

SEAS NOW RUNNING 12 TO 13 FT...BUT WILL HOLD RATHER STEADY THROUGH
TUE. BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 15 TO 20 FT FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT
HIGHEST STILL STILL LIKELY TO BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...OR FROM
10 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY
 THROUGH TUE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM NOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 200928
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS
SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS ANOTHER
VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY A
BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER
TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR NOW INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD HAVE
AREAS OF MVFR FURTHER INLAND UNTIL 17Z. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AFTER 17Z...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING. AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY...WITH RAIN UNTIL 17Z...THEN
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 12Z TO 17Z AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
OPS AREA. THEN ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNDER SHOWERS. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...BROAD LOW PRES STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK.

FIRST IS APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT FOR GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY RELAX AT TIMES...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER
REGION...WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SO...WILL EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OUT THROUGH TUE.

NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL APPROACH REGION LATER
TUE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. LOOKS LIKE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KT TUE NIGHT.

SEAS NOW RUNNING 12 TO 13 FT...BUT WILL HOLD RATHER STEADY THROUGH
TUE. BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 15 TO 20 FT FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT
HIGHEST STILL STILL LIKELY TO BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...OR FROM
10 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY
 THROUGH TUE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM NOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200928
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...SPREADING PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES BY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE QUITE WET AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS INCHING ITS
WAY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS
SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE HEAVIER AS ANOTHER
VORTMAX TRAVELS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...WITH IT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY A
BIT...KEEPING MOST CONVECTION RATHER SHALLOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

00Z NAM SHOWS SOME DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESIDUAL
DEFORMATION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD KEEP DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE COLD
POOL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...850 MB TEMPS GET
DOWN TO AROUND +3 DEG C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 544
DECAMETERS TUE MORNING. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING MUCH BELOW 6000 FEET...AND BY THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASING ANYWAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS WILL GET A
DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM THE NORTH COAST.
EUGENE AND MUCH OF LANE COUNTY MAY BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS
EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 70 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IN
TURN SLOW THE FRONT FURTHER. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR S WA/N OR COAST ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...
BUT AS AN EXAMPLE THE 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A 994 MB LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET PRODUCING 950 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60-65 KT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NEWPORT BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THEN THE 06Z NAM HAS
AN ADDITIONAL 998 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 KT+ WINDS AT 950 MB ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
FOR NOW SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEPENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DEVELOPING AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IT SHOWS IN THE MODEL QPF. WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
STRONG AT TIMES FOR SOUTH-FAVORED SLOPES. FOR NOW...OUR QPF FORECAST
CALLS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME RAIN
TAPERS OFF THURSDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE
S WA CASCADES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR
MORE RESPONSIVE RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER DRAINING OUT OF THE
WILLAPA HILLS. OF COURSE WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ON THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
TAIL END OF OUR MIDWEEK RAIN EVENT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEMING TO TREND TOWARD SHIFTING
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO FAVOR TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AS
SUCH...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THEREFORE WE REMAIN A BIT CONSERVATIVE... KEEPING POPS/TEMPS CLOSER
TO CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THESE 00Z MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR NOW INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD HAVE
AREAS OF MVFR FURTHER INLAND UNTIL 17Z. EXPECT MTNS/PASSES TO BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AFTER 17Z...WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING. AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY...WITH RAIN UNTIL 17Z...THEN
BRIEF BREAK BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 12Z TO 17Z AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
OPS AREA. THEN ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNDER SHOWERS. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...BROAD LOW PRES STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK.

FIRST IS APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT FOR GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY RELAX AT TIMES...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER
REGION...WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SO...WILL EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OUT THROUGH TUE.

NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL APPROACH REGION LATER
TUE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. LOOKS LIKE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
KT TUE NIGHT.

SEAS NOW RUNNING 12 TO 13 FT...BUT WILL HOLD RATHER STEADY THROUGH
TUE. BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 15 TO 20 FT FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT
HIGHEST STILL STILL LIKELY TO BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...OR FROM
10 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY
 THROUGH TUE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM NOW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KOTX 200535
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1035 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates this evening included minor modification to sky cover and
minimum temperature forecast for tonight. Changes were not
significant enough to impact the zone forecast wording so they
were not updated. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  90
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  90
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  70
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20 100
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  60
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  70
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  50  70
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  50 100

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200535
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1035 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates this evening included minor modification to sky cover and
minimum temperature forecast for tonight. Changes were not
significant enough to impact the zone forecast wording so they
were not updated. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  90
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  90
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  70
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20 100
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  60
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  70
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  50  70
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  50 100

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 200406
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
906 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A
STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO AREAS
WEST OF PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST
OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRAGS INLAND. RAIN HAS
BEEN FAIRLY HEAVY ALONG THE N COAST WITH OVER AN INCH SO FAR AT
QUILLAYUTE AND FORKS. AWAY FROM THE OLYMPICS WHERE TERRAIN IS
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS. ACCORDING TO
THE SHORT RANGE HRRR GUIDANCE THE RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE N
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO SOAK THE OLYMPICS ALL NIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AROUND MIDNIGHT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
FINALLY WEAKENS OVER THE CASCADES. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W AT 03Z/8 PM. THE AIR MASS UNDER THE
TROUGH LOOKS NICELY UNSTABLE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTING STRIKES SHOWING UP OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING AND
PROBABLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND PART WAY INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS LIFTED INDICES GET DOWN TO ABOUT -2 OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM HQM SOUNDING HAS -3 AND CAPE AROUND
700 J/KG. I WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COAST
AND COASTAL WATERS FOR MONDAY.

MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITH
RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. THE SCREAMING MESSAGE REMAINS THE
SAME...VERY WET WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE OLYMPICS.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW A WEAK FRONT EMERGING OUT OF THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY FAR OFFSHORE ALONG 160W. THIS FRONT REACHES 130W AROUND
12Z/5 AM TUESDAY. EARLIER MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING THE COAST TUESDAY...BUT THE LATEST CONSENSUS SOLUTION IS
FOR A STRONG WAVE...DRIVEN ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC BY A 140KT JET
STREAK...TO OVERTAKE THE FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WARM FRONT INTENSIFYING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE
INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE COAST AND N INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DRENCH
THE COAST AND OLYMPICS. 850 MB WINDS S-SW 60 KT SHOULD AID
OROGRAPHIC PRECIP OVER THE OLYMPICS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER INTERIOR AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF THE
PRECIP SHIFTING OVER THE CASCADES AND WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A 4-5
INCH BULLSEYE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND UP TO AN INCH OVER THE LOWLANDS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING IN THE MOIST SW FLOW
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER. OF COURSE
SINCE THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN A BIT OF A MOVING TARGET THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BE PREPARED FOR CHANGES. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...THE PATTERN
LOOKS MORE SHOWERY IN BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ON FRIDAY. MODELS
THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWERY ON THE WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF SHOWERS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS MAY BE MORE LIKELY ON THE
COAST. HEIGHTS DO FALL A BIT SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LOWER...MAYBE
BELOW 50 DEGREES. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...3 PM DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET
BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE OLYMPICS WILL
GET THE MOST RAIN WITH PERHAPS 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND
RAINY EVENT OVER THE OLYMPICS IN THREE DAYS. YESTERDAY MORNING THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER REACHED 15.3 FEET AND IT IS LIKELY TO GET AROUND
THAT HIGH AGAIN ON MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE ON THE SKOKOMISH IS 16.5 FEET.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. MODELS
CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE PAC NW
MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH THROUGH
WRN WA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG SLY FLOW
ALOFT...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MOIST
AND STABLE CONDITIONS...BECOMING UNSTABLE ON MONDAY. RAIN TONIGHT
WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.

KSEA...MID OR HIGH CLOUDS. CEILINGS LOWERING LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
MONDAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO SHOWERS. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE INLAND
WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. SMALL CRAFT SLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS N OF
PUGET SOUND. WINDS EASING BELOW 20 KT THROUGHOUT BY MONDAY MORNING.
10 TO 13 FOOT WEST SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS UP FOR
SWELL OVER THE COAST AND W ENTRANCE MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS LATER THIS
WEEK. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EACH
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO
MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCHNEIDER/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS TONIGHT EXCEPT PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE
     MONDAY.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 200406
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
906 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A
STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO AREAS
WEST OF PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST
OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRAGS INLAND. RAIN HAS
BEEN FAIRLY HEAVY ALONG THE N COAST WITH OVER AN INCH SO FAR AT
QUILLAYUTE AND FORKS. AWAY FROM THE OLYMPICS WHERE TERRAIN IS
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS. ACCORDING TO
THE SHORT RANGE HRRR GUIDANCE THE RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE N
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO SOAK THE OLYMPICS ALL NIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AROUND MIDNIGHT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
FINALLY WEAKENS OVER THE CASCADES. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W AT 03Z/8 PM. THE AIR MASS UNDER THE
TROUGH LOOKS NICELY UNSTABLE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTING STRIKES SHOWING UP OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING AND
PROBABLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND PART WAY INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS LIFTED INDICES GET DOWN TO ABOUT -2 OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM HQM SOUNDING HAS -3 AND CAPE AROUND
700 J/KG. I WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COAST
AND COASTAL WATERS FOR MONDAY.

MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITH
RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. THE SCREAMING MESSAGE REMAINS THE
SAME...VERY WET WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE OLYMPICS.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW A WEAK FRONT EMERGING OUT OF THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY FAR OFFSHORE ALONG 160W. THIS FRONT REACHES 130W AROUND
12Z/5 AM TUESDAY. EARLIER MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING THE COAST TUESDAY...BUT THE LATEST CONSENSUS SOLUTION IS
FOR A STRONG WAVE...DRIVEN ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC BY A 140KT JET
STREAK...TO OVERTAKE THE FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WARM FRONT INTENSIFYING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE
INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE COAST AND N INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DRENCH
THE COAST AND OLYMPICS. 850 MB WINDS S-SW 60 KT SHOULD AID
OROGRAPHIC PRECIP OVER THE OLYMPICS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER INTERIOR AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF THE
PRECIP SHIFTING OVER THE CASCADES AND WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A 4-5
INCH BULLSEYE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND UP TO AN INCH OVER THE LOWLANDS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING IN THE MOIST SW FLOW
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER. OF COURSE
SINCE THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN A BIT OF A MOVING TARGET THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BE PREPARED FOR CHANGES. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...THE PATTERN
LOOKS MORE SHOWERY IN BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ON FRIDAY. MODELS
THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWERY ON THE WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF SHOWERS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS MAY BE MORE LIKELY ON THE
COAST. HEIGHTS DO FALL A BIT SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LOWER...MAYBE
BELOW 50 DEGREES. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...3 PM DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS WET
BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE OLYMPICS WILL
GET THE MOST RAIN WITH PERHAPS 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND
RAINY EVENT OVER THE OLYMPICS IN THREE DAYS. YESTERDAY MORNING THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER REACHED 15.3 FEET AND IT IS LIKELY TO GET AROUND
THAT HIGH AGAIN ON MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE ON THE SKOKOMISH IS 16.5 FEET.

THE GFS AND WRF VERSION OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT IS
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. MODELS
CONFINE FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
PROBABLY JUST TO THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BASIN. ANY FLOODING ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE PAC NW
MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH THROUGH
WRN WA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG SLY FLOW
ALOFT...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MOIST
AND STABLE CONDITIONS...BECOMING UNSTABLE ON MONDAY. RAIN TONIGHT
WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.

KSEA...MID OR HIGH CLOUDS. CEILINGS LOWERING LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
MONDAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO SHOWERS. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE INLAND
WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. SMALL CRAFT SLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND WATERS N OF
PUGET SOUND. WINDS EASING BELOW 20 KT THROUGHOUT BY MONDAY MORNING.
10 TO 13 FOOT WEST SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS UP FOR
SWELL OVER THE COAST AND W ENTRANCE MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS LATER THIS
WEEK. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EACH
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO
MOST OF THE WATERS. GALES ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT AS EACH FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SCHNEIDER/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS TONIGHT EXCEPT PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE
     MONDAY.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KPQR 200340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND WILL SEND A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
NEXT RATHER STRONG AND QUITE WET FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE
FALL LIKE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
FIRST FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WAS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN.

THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE MAIN
COLD POOL ALOFT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. WILL
KEEP SOME THUNDER OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST...BUT INLAND IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST LATER TUESDAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT LOOKS
EVEN MORE MOIST THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES AND STRONG 850 MB INFLOW WINDS.
FORTUNATELY...AT THIS POINT THE FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO STALL AND
GENERALLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT STEADILY THOUGH STILL
SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED AS THERE COULD
BE SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS...INCLUDING SOME OF OUR FLASHIER
RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

THE MODELS VARY SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND
THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST. IF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING...THEN WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST HEADLAND COASTAL HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE FALL. IN
ANY EVENT GALES LOOK PRETTY CERTAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND IS PRESENTLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE GUSTY S WINDS TO 25
KT AND VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT ALONG WITH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND
3000 FT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 4000 FT BY 07Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2000 FT ALONG WITH DECREASING
VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO CROSS
THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE WATERS AND IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED JUST ONSHORE. WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 41 KT AT BUOY 46029 AND 44
KT AT GARIBALDI WERE RECORDED THIS EVENING...WINDS HAVE EASED AS THE
FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE AND WITH OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR CONSIDERABLY
LOWER...FEEL COMFORTABLE TO END THE GALE WARNING AS OF 8 PM. GUSTS
25-30 KT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
MON EVENING AND EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY...THOUGH DETAILS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS NEXT FRONT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

SEAS PEAKED AROUND 14 FT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
12-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS GRADUALLY EASE A LITTLE LATE MON OR
EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD A BIT HIGHER WITH THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND FRONT ARRIVING TUE/WED. THUS...EXPECT THAT SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUE
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 200340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND WILL SEND A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
NEXT RATHER STRONG AND QUITE WET FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE
FALL LIKE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
FIRST FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WAS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN.

THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE MAIN
COLD POOL ALOFT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. WILL
KEEP SOME THUNDER OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST...BUT INLAND IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST LATER TUESDAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT LOOKS
EVEN MORE MOIST THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES AND STRONG 850 MB INFLOW WINDS.
FORTUNATELY...AT THIS POINT THE FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO STALL AND
GENERALLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT STEADILY THOUGH STILL
SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED AS THERE COULD
BE SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS...INCLUDING SOME OF OUR FLASHIER
RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

THE MODELS VARY SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND
THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST. IF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING...THEN WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST HEADLAND COASTAL HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE FALL. IN
ANY EVENT GALES LOOK PRETTY CERTAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND IS PRESENTLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE GUSTY S WINDS TO 25
KT AND VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT ALONG WITH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND
3000 FT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 4000 FT BY 07Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2000 FT ALONG WITH DECREASING
VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO CROSS
THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE WATERS AND IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED JUST ONSHORE. WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 41 KT AT BUOY 46029 AND 44
KT AT GARIBALDI WERE RECORDED THIS EVENING...WINDS HAVE EASED AS THE
FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE AND WITH OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR CONSIDERABLY
LOWER...FEEL COMFORTABLE TO END THE GALE WARNING AS OF 8 PM. GUSTS
25-30 KT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
MON EVENING AND EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY...THOUGH DETAILS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS NEXT FRONT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

SEAS PEAKED AROUND 14 FT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
12-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS GRADUALLY EASE A LITTLE LATE MON OR
EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD A BIT HIGHER WITH THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND FRONT ARRIVING TUE/WED. THUS...EXPECT THAT SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUE
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 200340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND WILL SEND A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WAS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
NEXT RATHER STRONG AND QUITE WET FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THE WEEK...CONTINUING THE
FALL LIKE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
FIRST FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WAS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN.

THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE MAIN
COLD POOL ALOFT AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH. WILL
KEEP SOME THUNDER OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST...BUT INLAND IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST LATER TUESDAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT LOOKS
EVEN MORE MOIST THAN THE CURRENT ONE...WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES AND STRONG 850 MB INFLOW WINDS.
FORTUNATELY...AT THIS POINT THE FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO STALL AND
GENERALLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT STEADILY THOUGH STILL
SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED AS THERE COULD
BE SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS...INCLUDING SOME OF OUR FLASHIER
RIVERS SUCH AS THE GRAYS RIVER IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

THE MODELS VARY SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND
THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST. IF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING...THEN WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST HEADLAND COASTAL HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE FALL. IN
ANY EVENT GALES LOOK PRETTY CERTAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
BE GENERATED OFF PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CONTINUING TO GENERATE THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER DAY.THIS KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BECAUSE AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY POOR AFTER
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH...HINT AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS BROAD THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AND IS PRESENTLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE GUSTY S WINDS TO 25
KT AND VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT ALONG WITH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND
3000 FT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND AFTER 06Z WITH RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS AND MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z MONDAY. POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AROUND 4000 FT BY 07Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2000 FT ALONG WITH DECREASING
VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SMALLER SCALE LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO CROSS
THE WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE WATERS AND IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED JUST ONSHORE. WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 41 KT AT BUOY 46029 AND 44
KT AT GARIBALDI WERE RECORDED THIS EVENING...WINDS HAVE EASED AS THE
FRONT PUSHED ONSHORE AND WITH OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR CONSIDERABLY
LOWER...FEEL COMFORTABLE TO END THE GALE WARNING AS OF 8 PM. GUSTS
25-30 KT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
MON EVENING AND EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY...THOUGH DETAILS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS NEXT FRONT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

SEAS PEAKED AROUND 14 FT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
12-14 FT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS GRADUALLY EASE A LITTLE LATE MON OR
EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD A BIT HIGHER WITH THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM AND FRONT ARRIVING TUE/WED. THUS...EXPECT THAT SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUE
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




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