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000
FXUS66 KOTX 242345
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system will produce showery, breezy, and cool
conditions over northeast Washington and north Idaho this
evening. Dry weather will arrive overnight for the weekend and
continue into next week. Much warmer temperatures are expected
next week with most areas climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The slow eastward progression of the upper level closed
low will continue this evening...with an apparent vorticity
maximum apparent near Deer Park this afternoon effectively
enhancing available moisture into an area of moderate rain and
slowly drifting eastward. As such...frequent showers and
occasional minor thunderstorms will probably continue through
sunset over the northeast Washington and north Idaho...with a few
showers lingering overnight in the idaho Panhandle mountains as
the upper low slowly works it`s way out of the region to the
east. With the widespread rain and heavy cloud cover the late
afternoon and evening air mass will probably not be able to
generate CAPE values beyond a few hundred Joules so any
thunderstorm activity will be only isolated...with the best chance
of anything beyond a few lightning strikes on the margins of the
main precipitaiton area such as the Palouse and points
southward...and the Okanogan Highlands/Valley and north Cascades.
Overnight strong height recoveries at 500 mb in the wake of the
upper low will help stabilize the air mass and set the stage for a
strong drying and warming trend through the weekend.

The other issue to note for tonight will be breezy conditions
through the Cascade gaps and spilling out into the deep basin
this evening as a cooler maritime air mass feeds into the region.
Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible on the Waterville
Plateau...Wenatchee area and the deep basin west of Moses Lake.

Saturday through Sunday...The region will be under the influence
of an upper level ridge through the weekend. Moisture from
today`s system will probably produce patchy fog and at least
shreds of low clouds Saturday morning in the protected valleys
northeast of the basin...but otherwise scattered flat cumulus and
warming but still seasonably cool temperatures with decreasing
winds will prevail region wide. On Sunday real summer weather will
begin with mainly clear skies and noticeably warmer
conditions...back up to normal with 80s prevailing over most
populated locations and approaching 90 in the lowest elevations.
/Fugazzi

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Models are in good agreement of a
ridge of high pressure setting up across the western US. Both the
GFS and ECMWF show a weather disturbance moving over the ridge and
into the Inland Northwest Monday night/Tuesday. However am not
impressed with the moisture or instability associated with the
disturbance. Kept just a very small chance of showers or
thunderstorms across the mountains on N WA and ID. Temperatures
will really start to warm up with daytime temps 10-12 degrees
above average and overnight lows 4-8 degrees above average. Summer
will really finally be here.

Tuesday Night through Friday: The thermal ridge builds up over
the region and temperatures will slowly increase further.
Currently it looks as though next Thursday or Friday will be the
warmest days with valley temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Thereafter the models start to diverge on the ridge pushing east
as a low pressure system moves out of the Gulf of Alaska. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The low is moving into NW Montana this evening. Most of
the showers are in extreme E WA and N ID. However some isolated
showers have developed further west across the central part of WA.
Expect all showers to be on a decrease this evening. Skies will
clear through the night. Winds are at their max now and will
subside through the night as well. There may still be an isolated
lightning strike through 3z. Leftover abundant low level moisture
from today`s rainfall may allow for areas of fog and low clouds
to develop overnight and linger into Saturday morning in the most
sheltered areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  73  53  82  58  88 /  60   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  48  72  50  82  55  87 / 100   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        45  73  46  81  52  87 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       50  81  55  89  60  94 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  76  48  85  53  90 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      45  69  46  78  51  83 /  90  10  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        44  69  45  79  51  84 / 100  10   0  10   0   0
Moses Lake     49  80  53  88  59  94 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  80  58  87  63  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           49  79  54  86  58  92 /  20  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS66 KSEW 242208
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
300 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Residual clouds and a few showers tonight will end
on Saturday as high pressure offshore moves over the region. The
upper ridge will shift slightly inland over the interior Pacific
Northwest and Great Basin by Tuesday. This pattern will favor mostly
dry weather and above average temperatures through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A weakly unstable air mass and residual low level
moisture are producing scattered showers across Western Washington
this afternoon. Shower coverage will decrease with loss of daytime
heating, but lift provided by the mountains and a possible weak
Puget Sound convergence zone will maintain some threat of showers
overnight. High pressure offshore will shift east over the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday. low stratus across the area during the
morning will give way to partly sunny skies in the afternoon.
Northwesterly onshore flow will weaken while rising upper heights
and less cloud cover allow much of the interior to reach the low or
even mid 70s. Any remaining clouds should mostly clear out during
the evening.

Models show a weak short wave passing north of the area Saturday
evening not having much impact on our weather. 500 mb heights still
rebound over 5800m Sunday with light northerly flow at the surface.
Temperatures will warm further, with many locations around greater
Puget Sound and the southwest interior reaching the low 80s.

Both the GFS/ECMWF shift the upper ridge axis a bit eastward Sunday
night which becomes centered over the Great Basin and interior
Pacific Northwest. A short wave will flatten the ridge and cause
thermally induced low pressure to mainly stay east of the Cascades.
A warm air mass will already be in place over interior Western
Washington with only weak onshore flow will result in another dry
and warm day. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s except
upper 60s coast and 70s north interior. There is an outside chance
of a few cumulus developing over the north cascades late in the day
but will hold off on adding pops or any mention of thunder.

.LONG TERM...Global models show little change in the general pattern
through next week. High pressure aloft will remain anchored over the
Great Basin and Rockies with a series of weak upper lows brushing by
just north of Washington. This will cause some variation in the
strength of onshore flow which will affect temperatures a bit. Went
with a model blend in the extended which generally indicates
slightly above average temperatures and dry weather. Morning low
clouds could develop at the coast at times and may seep into the
western Strait or lower Chehalis gap, but nothing significant. Mercer

&&

.AVIATION...An upper low moved inland and a weak upper ridge
will move over Western Washington tonight. Westerly flow. High
pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. The air mass is moist
and slightly unstable but the scattered showers will end later this
evening as the air stabilizes.

KSEA...Partly to mostly cloudy with the chance of showers ending
later this evening, the wind should be light and variable this
evening in weak convergence.

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow will prevail for the next several days with
high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Small craft
advisory west winds are likely in the Central and East Strait most
evenings with this pattern. There will also probably be some small
craft advisory northwest winds for the coastal waters most evenings
starting Saturday as northerly gradients tighten a bit.

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory Strait of Juan de Fuca.


&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 242127
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
224 PM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A few showers will remain in the area into this
evening before high pressure builds into the area tonight and
Saturday, bringing a period of dry weather and warmer temperatures
that will extend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday Night through Monday)...The upper low has
shifted quickly east although remnant onshore flow and cyclonic
flow aloft has kept scattered light showers in the northern half of
the area today. These showers will remain for the next few hours but
will quickly dissipate after sunset. Clouds showed signs of clearing
earlier this afternoon, but with cool temps aloft, cu quickly filled
the skies as daytime heating commenced. Once these diurnal cu
dissipate after sunset, skies will remain mostly clear skies for the
first part of the overnight hours. Some stratus/patchy fog
development is possible in the northern half of the valley by
morning. Expect this stratus along the northern Oregon coast and
southwest Washington coast as well. By morning, areas south of Salem
will be under offshore flow which should keep skies mostly clear
south of there both in the valley and along the coast.

A weak upper level disturbance will move through during the day on
Saturday. This wave won`t bring any precip, but skies won`t be quite
as clear as previously thought. Have increased afternoon sky cover
across the entire area to account for this change. Sunday will be a
clear day as flow moves mostly offshore. This will result in mid 80s
for much of the interior with temps along the coast even warming near
or slightly above 70.

Another weak wave will move through Sunday night, but once again it`s
passage will be dry with the only impacts being a deepening marine
layer and slightly more cloud cover Monday than the other days.
/Bentley

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)...Models continue to show
a broad upper level ridge persisting over the forecast area through
late next week. This will keep warm and dry weather over the region.
Expect temps in the interior to remain in the 80s under mostly sunny
skies. The coast will likely remain partly cloudy due to a decent
onshore wind componet, but we could see some marine stratus burn
back to the beaches during the day. Marine stratus should help keep
temps in the 60s along the coast. In general, seasonal weather can
be expected next week. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are prevailing this afternoon and
is expected to continue overnight. However, here may be patchy
fog or MVFR stratus early Sat morning mainly on the coast and
area north of KSLE . Showers continue this afternoon with main
activity north of KUAO-KTMK line. Showers will end this evening.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions prevailing through Sat.
However there may be local MVFR cigs and patchy fog along the
lower Columbia River 12Z-17Z Sat.

&&

.MARINE...A ridge of high continues to build over the waters and
will remain into weekend. As a trough of low pres builds up along
the S Oregon coast Sat afternoon and Sat night will see north
winds increasing by late Sat, with gusts expected to reach small
craft criteria. For now will issue a small craft advisory for the
zones from Cascade Head to Florence. Winds may also reach advisory
criteria north of Cascade Heat Sat afternoon but looks marginal at
this time so will see what later model runs show. The north winds
are expected to continue into early next week. With the increase
in north winds, steep seas are likely to develop as a result of
the wind waves and fresh swell. Wave heights however are expected
to remain under 10 ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday
     for Coastal Waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out
     60 nm.

&&

$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 242117
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
217 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system will produce showery, breezy, and cool
conditions over northeast Washington and north Idaho this
evening. Dry weather will arrive overnight for the weekend and
continue into next week. Much warmer temperatures are expected
next week with most areas climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The slow eastward progression of the upper level closed
low will continue this evening...with an apparent vorticity
maximum apparent near Deer Park this afternoon effectively
enhancing available moisture into an area of moderate rain and
slowly drifting eastward. As such...frequent showers and
occasional minor thunderstorms will probably continue through
sunset over the northeast Washington and north Idaho...with a few
showers lingering overnight in the idaho Panhandle mountains as
the upper low slowly works it`s way out of the region to the
east. With the widespread rain and heavy cloud cover the late
afternoon and evening air mass will probably not be able to
generate CAPE values beyond a few hundred Joules so any
thunderstorm activity will be only isolated...with the best chance
of anything beyond a few lightning strikes on the margins of the
main precipitaiton area such as the Palouse and points
southward...and the Okanogan Highlands/Valley and north Cascades.
Overnight strong height recoveries at 500 mb in the wake of the
upper low will help stabilize the air mass and set the stage for a
strong drying and warming trend through the weekend.

The other issue to note for tonight will be breezy conditions
through the Cascade gaps and spilling out into the deep basin
this evening as a cooler maritime air mass feeds into the region.
Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible on the Waterville
Plateau...Wenatchee area and the deep basin west of Moses Lake.

Saturday through Sunday...The region will be under the influence
of an upper level ridge through the weekend. Moisture from
today`s system will probably produce patchy fog and at least
shreds of low clouds Saturday morning in the protected valleys
northeast of the basin...but otherwise scattered flat cumulus and
warming but still seasonably cool temperatures with decreasing
winds will prevail region wide. On Sunday real summer weather will
begin with mainly clear skies and noticeably warmer
conditions...back up to normal with 80s prevailing over most
populated locations and approaching 90 in the lowest elevations.
/Fugazzi

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Models are in good agreement of a
ridge of high pressure setting up across the western US. Both the
GFS and ECMWF show a weather disturbance moving over the ridge and
into the Inland Northwest Monday night/Tuesday. However am not
impressed with the moisture or instability associated with the
disturbance. Kept just a very small chance of showers or
thunderstorms across the mountains on N WA and ID. Temperatures
will really start to warm up with daytime temps 10-12 degrees
above average and overnight lows 4-8 degrees above average. Summer
will really finally be here.

Tuesday Night through Friday: The thermal ridge builds up over the
region and temperatures will slowly increase further. Currently it
looks as though next Thursday or Friday will be the warmest days
with valley temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Thereafter
the models start to diverge on the ridge pushing east as a low
pressure system moves out of the Gulf of Alaska. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A moist and very unstable airmass will allow
for unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms
along with breezy winds. The low pressure area that is hosting the
unstable airmass will move away into Northwest Montana tonight
allowing for improving conditions during the nighttime
hours...however leftover abundant low level moisture left from the
rainfall may allow for areas of fog and low clouds to develop
overnight and linger into Saturday morning in the most sheltered
areas. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  73  53  82  58  88 /  60   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  48  72  50  82  55  87 / 100   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        45  73  46  81  52  87 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       50  81  55  89  60  94 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  76  48  85  53  90 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      45  69  46  78  51  83 /  90  10  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        44  69  45  79  51  84 / 100  10   0  10   0   0
Moses Lake     49  80  53  88  59  94 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  80  58  87  63  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           49  79  54  86  58  92 /  20  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 242117
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
217 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system will produce showery, breezy, and cool
conditions over northeast Washington and north Idaho this
evening. Dry weather will arrive overnight for the weekend and
continue into next week. Much warmer temperatures are expected
next week with most areas climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The slow eastward progression of the upper level closed
low will continue this evening...with an apparent vorticity
maximum apparent near Deer Park this afternoon effectively
enhancing available moisture into an area of moderate rain and
slowly drifting eastward. As such...frequent showers and
occasional minor thunderstorms will probably continue through
sunset over the northeast Washington and north Idaho...with a few
showers lingering overnight in the idaho Panhandle mountains as
the upper low slowly works it`s way out of the region to the
east. With the widespread rain and heavy cloud cover the late
afternoon and evening air mass will probably not be able to
generate CAPE values beyond a few hundred Joules so any
thunderstorm activity will be only isolated...with the best chance
of anything beyond a few lightning strikes on the margins of the
main precipitaiton area such as the Palouse and points
southward...and the Okanogan Highlands/Valley and north Cascades.
Overnight strong height recoveries at 500 mb in the wake of the
upper low will help stabilize the air mass and set the stage for a
strong drying and warming trend through the weekend.

The other issue to note for tonight will be breezy conditions
through the Cascade gaps and spilling out into the deep basin
this evening as a cooler maritime air mass feeds into the region.
Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible on the Waterville
Plateau...Wenatchee area and the deep basin west of Moses Lake.

Saturday through Sunday...The region will be under the influence
of an upper level ridge through the weekend. Moisture from
today`s system will probably produce patchy fog and at least
shreds of low clouds Saturday morning in the protected valleys
northeast of the basin...but otherwise scattered flat cumulus and
warming but still seasonably cool temperatures with decreasing
winds will prevail region wide. On Sunday real summer weather will
begin with mainly clear skies and noticeably warmer
conditions...back up to normal with 80s prevailing over most
populated locations and approaching 90 in the lowest elevations.
/Fugazzi

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Models are in good agreement of a
ridge of high pressure setting up across the western US. Both the
GFS and ECMWF show a weather disturbance moving over the ridge and
into the Inland Northwest Monday night/Tuesday. However am not
impressed with the moisture or instability associated with the
disturbance. Kept just a very small chance of showers or
thunderstorms across the mountains on N WA and ID. Temperatures
will really start to warm up with daytime temps 10-12 degrees
above average and overnight lows 4-8 degrees above average. Summer
will really finally be here.

Tuesday Night through Friday: The thermal ridge builds up over the
region and temperatures will slowly increase further. Currently it
looks as though next Thursday or Friday will be the warmest days
with valley temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Thereafter
the models start to diverge on the ridge pushing east as a low
pressure system moves out of the Gulf of Alaska. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A moist and very unstable airmass will allow
for unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms
along with breezy winds. The low pressure area that is hosting the
unstable airmass will move away into Northwest Montana tonight
allowing for improving conditions during the nighttime
hours...however leftover abundant low level moisture left from the
rainfall may allow for areas of fog and low clouds to develop
overnight and linger into Saturday morning in the most sheltered
areas. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  73  53  82  58  88 /  60   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  48  72  50  82  55  87 / 100   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        45  73  46  81  52  87 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       50  81  55  89  60  94 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  76  48  85  53  90 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      45  69  46  78  51  83 /  90  10  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        44  69  45  79  51  84 / 100  10   0  10   0   0
Moses Lake     49  80  53  88  59  94 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  80  58  87  63  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           49  79  54  86  58  92 /  20  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241749
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1049 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system is producing showery, breezy, and cool
conditions over the Inland Northwest today. Brief heavy downpours
and thunderstorms are possible over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. Dry weather will arrive for the weekend.
Much warmer temperatures are expected next week with most areas
climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates included increase in pops for northern portions of the
Columbia Basin. The 12Z KOTX sounding missed floating through the
cold pool aloft contained in the upper level area of low pressure
moving eastward across the area. Models resolve the coolest 500mb
temps in the pool at around -24C which is quite close to three
standard deviations on the cool side of normal resulting in the
CAPE being confined to a low area below the trope located at
around 350mb with a corresponding warm pool above the trope with
similar near 2-3 standard deviations on the warm side of normal.
All in all this reflects the instability is condusive to showers
and thunderstorms over a good portion of the forecast area and the
hail size is likely to not be too big given the low freezing level
at around 6300 feet MSL.

Storm motion is a bit more difficult to communicate as storm
motion depends upon where the storms are relative to the low
presure area moving through. Storms will tend to rotate around the
periphery of this low as it moves through...thus storms to the
south and closer to the center of the low will move west to east
at 15 mph with those furthwest west potentially moving from
northwest to southeast at 15 mph with those up to the north having
a slower movement or potentially remaining relatively stationary.
/Pelatti




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A moist and very unstable airmass will allow
for unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms
along with breezy winds. The low pressure area that is hosting the
unstable airmass will move away into Northwest Montana tonight
allowing for improving conditions during the nighttime
hours...however leftover abundant low level moisture left from the
rainfall may allow for areas of fog and low clouds to develop
overnight and linger into Saturday morning in the most sheltered
areas. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  48  73  52  82  59 /  80  20   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  48  72  49  82  56 /  80  50   0   0   0   0
Pullman        61  45  72  45  81  52 /  70  40   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       71  50  81  54  89  61 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       65  46  76  48  85  53 /  80  40  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      58  45  69  45  78  50 /  90  80  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        55  44  69  44  79  51 /  90  80  10   0  10  10
Moses Lake     73  49  80  52  89  59 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      71  53  80  58  87  64 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           70  49  79  53  86  59 /  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241749
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1049 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system is producing showery, breezy, and cool
conditions over the Inland Northwest today. Brief heavy downpours
and thunderstorms are possible over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. Dry weather will arrive for the weekend.
Much warmer temperatures are expected next week with most areas
climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates included increase in pops for northern portions of the
Columbia Basin. The 12Z KOTX sounding missed floating through the
cold pool aloft contained in the upper level area of low pressure
moving eastward across the area. Models resolve the coolest 500mb
temps in the pool at around -24C which is quite close to three
standard deviations on the cool side of normal resulting in the
CAPE being confined to a low area below the trope located at
around 350mb with a corresponding warm pool above the trope with
similar near 2-3 standard deviations on the warm side of normal.
All in all this reflects the instability is condusive to showers
and thunderstorms over a good portion of the forecast area and the
hail size is likely to not be too big given the low freezing level
at around 6300 feet MSL.

Storm motion is a bit more difficult to communicate as storm
motion depends upon where the storms are relative to the low
presure area moving through. Storms will tend to rotate around the
periphery of this low as it moves through...thus storms to the
south and closer to the center of the low will move west to east
at 15 mph with those furthwest west potentially moving from
northwest to southeast at 15 mph with those up to the north having
a slower movement or potentially remaining relatively stationary.
/Pelatti




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A moist and very unstable airmass will allow
for unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms
along with breezy winds. The low pressure area that is hosting the
unstable airmass will move away into Northwest Montana tonight
allowing for improving conditions during the nighttime
hours...however leftover abundant low level moisture left from the
rainfall may allow for areas of fog and low clouds to develop
overnight and linger into Saturday morning in the most sheltered
areas. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  48  73  52  82  59 /  80  20   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  48  72  49  82  56 /  80  50   0   0   0   0
Pullman        61  45  72  45  81  52 /  70  40   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       71  50  81  54  89  61 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       65  46  76  48  85  53 /  80  40  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      58  45  69  45  78  50 /  90  80  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        55  44  69  44  79  51 /  90  80  10   0  10  10
Moses Lake     73  49  80  52  89  59 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      71  53  80  58  87  64 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           70  49  79  53  86  59 /  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241628
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
925 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system and a few rain showers
will remain over the region this morning...then move east of the area
this afternoon/evening. High pressure will build into the area
tonight and Saturday, bringing a period of dry weather and warmer
temperatures that will extend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)...No changes. Previous
discussion follows. An upper level low pressure
system remains over WA/OR this morning with the sfc front well to
the east. The region received decent rainfall Thursday afternoon/
evening as the upper level low moved into the area. There were
several reports in the 0.3 to 0.6 inch range and a few stations in
the higher terrain reported near 1 inch.

Showers will continue through the morning hours today...then begin to
quickly taper off this afternoon/evening as the upper level low moves
east of the area. A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to move
into the area tonight and Saturday which will mark the beginning of a
very nice stretch of summer weather that will last well into next
week. Overall, expect a few clouds along the coast and sunny skies
elsewhere Sat and Sun.This weekend, temperatures will run in the
mid 60s on the coast and upper 70s to lower 80s inland.  The warm,
pleasant weather will persist well into next week. Very nice summer
weather expected.  /twilde

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...Previous discussion
follows...Broad upper level ridging will continue to bring warm and
dry conditions to the forecast area through late next week.
This will bring sunny skies to the interior, with temps warming into
the mid 80s by Tuesday. Models continue to show several weak
shortwaves moving across the Pac NW next week. These shortwaves will
help to deepen the marine layer along the coast which, combined with
an onshore flow pattern, should keep temps in the 60s under partly
cloudy skies. All in all, beautiful/seasonal weather is expected next
week. /64

 Models indicate a very weak shortwave traverses the area late Sunday
into Monday morning, but not strong enough for more than some
increasing clouds.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to remain dominant at TAF
sites, but temporary MVFR conditions are possible through 20z.
Showers expected to diminish later in the day, with diminishing
chances for MVFR conditions through 01z. Mainly VFR flight
conditions expected tonight after 01z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR conditions today and tonight, but
temporary MVFR conditions are possible through 20z as scattered
showers continue. Just a slight chance of conditions lowering to
MVFR category between 20z and 01z.

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough of low pres will move east across the
waters early this morning. Expect winds to remain mainly under 20
kt, but local gusts 20 to 25 kt may occur over the northern
portions of PZZ250 and PZZ270. A ridge of high pres pushes in
later today and remains into Sat. As a trough of low pres builds
up along the S Oregon coast late Sat into Sat night will see north
winds increasing by late Sat, with gusts likely to reach small
craft criteria. The north winds are expected to continue into
early next week. With the increase in north winds, steep seas are
likely to develop as a result of the wind waves and fresh swell.
Wave heights however are expected to remain under 10 ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241628
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
925 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system and a few rain showers
will remain over the region this morning...then move east of the area
this afternoon/evening. High pressure will build into the area
tonight and Saturday, bringing a period of dry weather and warmer
temperatures that will extend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)...No changes. Previous
discussion follows. An upper level low pressure
system remains over WA/OR this morning with the sfc front well to
the east. The region received decent rainfall Thursday afternoon/
evening as the upper level low moved into the area. There were
several reports in the 0.3 to 0.6 inch range and a few stations in
the higher terrain reported near 1 inch.

Showers will continue through the morning hours today...then begin to
quickly taper off this afternoon/evening as the upper level low moves
east of the area. A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to move
into the area tonight and Saturday which will mark the beginning of a
very nice stretch of summer weather that will last well into next
week. Overall, expect a few clouds along the coast and sunny skies
elsewhere Sat and Sun.This weekend, temperatures will run in the
mid 60s on the coast and upper 70s to lower 80s inland.  The warm,
pleasant weather will persist well into next week. Very nice summer
weather expected.  /twilde

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...Previous discussion
follows...Broad upper level ridging will continue to bring warm and
dry conditions to the forecast area through late next week.
This will bring sunny skies to the interior, with temps warming into
the mid 80s by Tuesday. Models continue to show several weak
shortwaves moving across the Pac NW next week. These shortwaves will
help to deepen the marine layer along the coast which, combined with
an onshore flow pattern, should keep temps in the 60s under partly
cloudy skies. All in all, beautiful/seasonal weather is expected next
week. /64

 Models indicate a very weak shortwave traverses the area late Sunday
into Monday morning, but not strong enough for more than some
increasing clouds.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to remain dominant at TAF
sites, but temporary MVFR conditions are possible through 20z.
Showers expected to diminish later in the day, with diminishing
chances for MVFR conditions through 01z. Mainly VFR flight
conditions expected tonight after 01z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR conditions today and tonight, but
temporary MVFR conditions are possible through 20z as scattered
showers continue. Just a slight chance of conditions lowering to
MVFR category between 20z and 01z.

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough of low pres will move east across the
waters early this morning. Expect winds to remain mainly under 20
kt, but local gusts 20 to 25 kt may occur over the northern
portions of PZZ250 and PZZ270. A ridge of high pres pushes in
later today and remains into Sat. As a trough of low pres builds
up along the S Oregon coast late Sat into Sat night will see north
winds increasing by late Sat, with gusts likely to reach small
craft criteria. The north winds are expected to continue into
early next week. With the increase in north winds, steep seas are
likely to develop as a result of the wind waves and fresh swell.
Wave heights however are expected to remain under 10 ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 241622
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
900 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low over Eastern Washington
this morning will continue shifting away from the area. Wrap around
moisture with unstable air in place will produce still produce some
showers through the day today. Upper ridging will start to build
over Western Washington tonight, with warmer temperatures and dry
conditions Saturday and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery shows the upper level low pressure
circulation over Eastern Washington this morning moving Eastward.
There is residual low level moisture in place across Western
Washington with some added wrap around mid level moisture on the
back side of the low. Radar shows most the showers north and east of
Seattle due to a waning convergence zone and orographic lift over
the foothills/Cascades. Shower activity should continue into the
afternoon with diurnal instability kicking in, but parts of Puget
Sound downwind of the Olympics may see some shadowing due to w-nw
flow at 850 mb. Given the mostly cloudy skies today and onshore
flow, highs should to out in the low to mid 60s.

Models show weak ridging tonight behind the upper low with showers
decreasing during the evening with loss of daytime heating. A weak
short wave moves across B.C. to our north on Saturday. This will
keep upper heights from rising temporarily and maintain nw onshore
flow. Precipitation is not expected and partial clearing is still
likely by afternoon. Highs should still manage to hit the upper 60s
to low/mid 70s, warmest inland from Puget Sound and the Southwest
Interior.

The four corners high shifts slightly west and amplifies Sunday. 500
mb heights build over 5800m with northerly low level flow and dry
weather. Temperatures should warm well into the 70s and possibly
near 80 in warmer spots in the Southwest Interior. The north flow
will hinder highs along the water with Seattle struggling to get much
above the mid 70s.

High pressure shifts inland Monday with thermally induced low
pressure mostly shifting east of the Cascades. Another weak short
wave will brush the area to the north but it will stay dry with
light surface flow over Western Washington. Without much onshore
flow and warm air already in place, highs should warm up into the
mid 70s to lower 80s. Locations along the shores of the inland
waters should warm up several degrees with less sea-breeze effects.
The coast stays dry through Monday but will have northwesterly flow
holding highs back in the 60s. Mercer

.LONG TERM...Previous discussion...Getting into the start of next
week...models have begun to introduce a shortwave for Monday. This
does not look to have much of an impact over the area...however...it
may result in very slight chance pops over the Cascades. Kept POPs
low for this feature for now as this is only the second GFS run to
feature this solution...however...confidence is growing as ECMWF has
seemed to latch on to this as well. Temps look to peak on Monday
before dropping down a few degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday. Not so
much due to the aforementioned meager shortwave...but more likely to
the credit of the ridge axis shifting further east allowing for some
strengthening to the onshore flow. Still...this ridge looks to be in
place for a while...so looking for a dry...warm week ahead.  SMR

&&

.AVIATION...An upper low is over Eastern Washington and will
move to Western Montana this afternoon. An upper ridge over the
offshore waters today will move over Western Washington tonight.
Southerly flow aloft will become westerly behind the upper low
today. At the surface, onshore flow will prevail with high pressure
offshore and lower pressure inland. The air mass is moist and
slightly unstable with a mix of low and mid clouds. Most of the
showers this morning are in the Cascades and foothills. The showers
will decrease through the day.

KSEA...It will be cloudy with some showers at times today and a
southerly or southwest breeze.

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow will prevail for the next several days with
high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Small craft
advisory west winds are likely in the Central and East Strait most
evenings with this pattern. There will also probably be some small
craft advisory northwest winds for the coastal waters most evenings
starting Saturday as northerly gradients tighten a bit.


&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory Strait of Juan de Fuca.


&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KSEW 241622
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
900 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low over Eastern Washington
this morning will continue shifting away from the area. Wrap around
moisture with unstable air in place will produce still produce some
showers through the day today. Upper ridging will start to build
over Western Washington tonight, with warmer temperatures and dry
conditions Saturday and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery shows the upper level low pressure
circulation over Eastern Washington this morning moving Eastward.
There is residual low level moisture in place across Western
Washington with some added wrap around mid level moisture on the
back side of the low. Radar shows most the showers north and east of
Seattle due to a waning convergence zone and orographic lift over
the foothills/Cascades. Shower activity should continue into the
afternoon with diurnal instability kicking in, but parts of Puget
Sound downwind of the Olympics may see some shadowing due to w-nw
flow at 850 mb. Given the mostly cloudy skies today and onshore
flow, highs should to out in the low to mid 60s.

Models show weak ridging tonight behind the upper low with showers
decreasing during the evening with loss of daytime heating. A weak
short wave moves across B.C. to our north on Saturday. This will
keep upper heights from rising temporarily and maintain nw onshore
flow. Precipitation is not expected and partial clearing is still
likely by afternoon. Highs should still manage to hit the upper 60s
to low/mid 70s, warmest inland from Puget Sound and the Southwest
Interior.

The four corners high shifts slightly west and amplifies Sunday. 500
mb heights build over 5800m with northerly low level flow and dry
weather. Temperatures should warm well into the 70s and possibly
near 80 in warmer spots in the Southwest Interior. The north flow
will hinder highs along the water with Seattle struggling to get much
above the mid 70s.

High pressure shifts inland Monday with thermally induced low
pressure mostly shifting east of the Cascades. Another weak short
wave will brush the area to the north but it will stay dry with
light surface flow over Western Washington. Without much onshore
flow and warm air already in place, highs should warm up into the
mid 70s to lower 80s. Locations along the shores of the inland
waters should warm up several degrees with less sea-breeze effects.
The coast stays dry through Monday but will have northwesterly flow
holding highs back in the 60s. Mercer

.LONG TERM...Previous discussion...Getting into the start of next
week...models have begun to introduce a shortwave for Monday. This
does not look to have much of an impact over the area...however...it
may result in very slight chance pops over the Cascades. Kept POPs
low for this feature for now as this is only the second GFS run to
feature this solution...however...confidence is growing as ECMWF has
seemed to latch on to this as well. Temps look to peak on Monday
before dropping down a few degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday. Not so
much due to the aforementioned meager shortwave...but more likely to
the credit of the ridge axis shifting further east allowing for some
strengthening to the onshore flow. Still...this ridge looks to be in
place for a while...so looking for a dry...warm week ahead.  SMR

&&

.AVIATION...An upper low is over Eastern Washington and will
move to Western Montana this afternoon. An upper ridge over the
offshore waters today will move over Western Washington tonight.
Southerly flow aloft will become westerly behind the upper low
today. At the surface, onshore flow will prevail with high pressure
offshore and lower pressure inland. The air mass is moist and
slightly unstable with a mix of low and mid clouds. Most of the
showers this morning are in the Cascades and foothills. The showers
will decrease through the day.

KSEA...It will be cloudy with some showers at times today and a
southerly or southwest breeze.

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow will prevail for the next several days with
high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Small craft
advisory west winds are likely in the Central and East Strait most
evenings with this pattern. There will also probably be some small
craft advisory northwest winds for the coastal waters most evenings
starting Saturday as northerly gradients tighten a bit.


&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory Strait of Juan de Fuca.


&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system will produce showery, breezy, and cool
conditions over the Inland Northwest today. Brief heavy downpours
and thunderstorms will be possible over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington this afternoon. Dry weather will arrive for
the weekend. Much warmer temperatures are expected next week with
most areas climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: Models are in good agreement of a closed low tracking east
today from Ellensburg, WA early this morning to Kalispell, MT late
this afternoon. This will result in a cool and showery day for the
Inland NW. In addition...uncapped CAPE of 300-700 J/KG will lead
to isolated thunderstorms capable of producing small hail...gusty
winds...and brief moderate to heavy rain. Thunderstorms this
morning will be focused mainly over NE Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle where the best forcing and mid level instability will
lie...before expanding into most of the eastern third of
Washington and north Idaho during the afternoon as a 500mb cold
pool of -23 to -25C tracks over SE Washington into the Lewiston
area in the afternoon. Downslope flow off the Cascades into the
Wenatchee and Moses Lake area with westerly 850mb winds of 20-30
kts should limit coverage of showers in this area
today...especially in the afternoon as the low pulls away from
Central Washington.

Tonight: A combination of mid level warming and drying and loss
of daytime heating this evening should result in a quick decrease
in convection with the Idaho Panhandle last to dry out. A moist
boundary layer over the Idaho Panhandle combined with some
clearing overnight will lead to areas of stratus and patchy fog.
This fog may also cover the northern valleys by early Saturday
morning.

Saturday: A drier westerly flow will result in warmer and drier
conditions. A weak wave clipping the Canadian border may result in
a few showers over the mountains near the Canadian border in the
afternoon. JW

Sunday: Temperatures will climb into the 80s on Sunday as the high
pressure ridge over the Southwest bulges northward. It looks like
a good early summer day to spend at the lake. Mostly sunny skies
with light east or northeast winds in the morning becoming
variable in the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday: The models continue to forecast a weak upper
level disturbance moving over the top of the ridge in the
Monday/Tuesday time frame. There is decent agreement between the
GFS, GFS Ensemble, and Canadian that there will be sufficient
moisture and instability for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Cascades Monday afternoon and evening.
Steep mid-level lapse rates may even allow high based convection
to persist into the night time hours Monday. This type of pattern
can produce nocturnal showers and thunderstorms, and the GFS
suggests the potential for early morning convection over the
Cascades, northeast Oregon, Southeast Washington, and the Idaho
Panhandle. Putting shower and thunderstorm chances aside, 850mb
temperatures rising to 22C to 24C Monday and Tuesday will likely
yield afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. June will come
to an end with above normal temperatures. /GKoch

Wednesday through Friday: No big changes to the extended forecast.
Still expecting the upper ridge of high pressure to dominate
through mid week keeping us hot and dry. Temperatures will remain
in the upper 80s and low 90s through the period as the surface
thermal ridge remains over the Inland Northwest through at least
next weekend. The best chance for an occasional shower or
thunderstorm over the mountains of N Idaho and along the Canadian
border will be Friday afternoon as the ridge begins to edge to the
east, but overall we will stay dry. /williams

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A low pressure system will bring rain to the Idaho
Panhandle and SE WA this morning. This combined with upslope flow
will lead to lowering CIGS with MVFR conditions expected to
develop at KPUW. Elsewhere scattered showers will be on the
increase this morning primarily north and east of KEAT and KMWH.
As the atmosphere destabilizes isolated thunderstorms will also
develop by early afternoon for the eastern TAF sites
(KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS). Showers end this evening but a moist
boundary layer over the Idaho Panhandle will lead to areas of MVFR
stratus. Models currently favor stratus remaining east of
KGEG/KSFF/KPUW but having a better chance of impacting KCOE. This
system will usher in gusty winds today with gusts of 20-25 kts. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  48  73  52  82  57 /  80  20   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  48  72  49  82  54 /  80  40   0   0   0   0
Pullman        61  45  72  45  81  51 /  70  30   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       71  50  81  54  89  60 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       65  46  76  48  84  53 /  80  40  10  10   0  10
Sandpoint      58  45  69  45  78  50 /  90  50  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        55  44  69  44  79  50 /  90  60   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     73  49  80  52  89  58 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      71  53  80  58  87  62 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           70  49  79  53  86  58 /  80  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system will produce showery, breezy, and cool
conditions over the Inland Northwest today. Brief heavy downpours
and thunderstorms will be possible over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington this afternoon. Dry weather will arrive for
the weekend. Much warmer temperatures are expected next week with
most areas climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: Models are in good agreement of a closed low tracking east
today from Ellensburg, WA early this morning to Kalispell, MT late
this afternoon. This will result in a cool and showery day for the
Inland NW. In addition...uncapped CAPE of 300-700 J/KG will lead
to isolated thunderstorms capable of producing small hail...gusty
winds...and brief moderate to heavy rain. Thunderstorms this
morning will be focused mainly over NE Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle where the best forcing and mid level instability will
lie...before expanding into most of the eastern third of
Washington and north Idaho during the afternoon as a 500mb cold
pool of -23 to -25C tracks over SE Washington into the Lewiston
area in the afternoon. Downslope flow off the Cascades into the
Wenatchee and Moses Lake area with westerly 850mb winds of 20-30
kts should limit coverage of showers in this area
today...especially in the afternoon as the low pulls away from
Central Washington.

Tonight: A combination of mid level warming and drying and loss
of daytime heating this evening should result in a quick decrease
in convection with the Idaho Panhandle last to dry out. A moist
boundary layer over the Idaho Panhandle combined with some
clearing overnight will lead to areas of stratus and patchy fog.
This fog may also cover the northern valleys by early Saturday
morning.

Saturday: A drier westerly flow will result in warmer and drier
conditions. A weak wave clipping the Canadian border may result in
a few showers over the mountains near the Canadian border in the
afternoon. JW

Sunday: Temperatures will climb into the 80s on Sunday as the high
pressure ridge over the Southwest bulges northward. It looks like
a good early summer day to spend at the lake. Mostly sunny skies
with light east or northeast winds in the morning becoming
variable in the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday: The models continue to forecast a weak upper
level disturbance moving over the top of the ridge in the
Monday/Tuesday time frame. There is decent agreement between the
GFS, GFS Ensemble, and Canadian that there will be sufficient
moisture and instability for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Cascades Monday afternoon and evening.
Steep mid-level lapse rates may even allow high based convection
to persist into the night time hours Monday. This type of pattern
can produce nocturnal showers and thunderstorms, and the GFS
suggests the potential for early morning convection over the
Cascades, northeast Oregon, Southeast Washington, and the Idaho
Panhandle. Putting shower and thunderstorm chances aside, 850mb
temperatures rising to 22C to 24C Monday and Tuesday will likely
yield afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. June will come
to an end with above normal temperatures. /GKoch

Wednesday through Friday: No big changes to the extended forecast.
Still expecting the upper ridge of high pressure to dominate
through mid week keeping us hot and dry. Temperatures will remain
in the upper 80s and low 90s through the period as the surface
thermal ridge remains over the Inland Northwest through at least
next weekend. The best chance for an occasional shower or
thunderstorm over the mountains of N Idaho and along the Canadian
border will be Friday afternoon as the ridge begins to edge to the
east, but overall we will stay dry. /williams

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A low pressure system will bring rain to the Idaho
Panhandle and SE WA this morning. This combined with upslope flow
will lead to lowering CIGS with MVFR conditions expected to
develop at KPUW. Elsewhere scattered showers will be on the
increase this morning primarily north and east of KEAT and KMWH.
As the atmosphere destabilizes isolated thunderstorms will also
develop by early afternoon for the eastern TAF sites
(KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS). Showers end this evening but a moist
boundary layer over the Idaho Panhandle will lead to areas of MVFR
stratus. Models currently favor stratus remaining east of
KGEG/KSFF/KPUW but having a better chance of impacting KCOE. This
system will usher in gusty winds today with gusts of 20-25 kts. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  48  73  52  82  57 /  80  20   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  48  72  49  82  54 /  80  40   0   0   0   0
Pullman        61  45  72  45  81  51 /  70  30   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       71  50  81  54  89  60 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       65  46  76  48  84  53 /  80  40  10  10   0  10
Sandpoint      58  45  69  45  78  50 /  90  50  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        55  44  69  44  79  50 /  90  60   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     73  49  80  52  89  58 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      71  53  80  58  87  62 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           70  49  79  53  86  58 /  80  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 241025
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
320 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will move east of the Cascades
this morning...although wrap around moisture will still allow for
the chance for showers through the day today. Upper ridging will
start to build over Western Washington by tonight...bringing warmer
temperatures and drier conditions Saturday and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR satellite imagery shows the upper level low right
over Western WA at the time of this writing. While the radar imagery
is rife with weak echoes...there are two larger echoes with the best
likelihood for showers...one extending over much of King
County...likely ahead of the low center...and one over the Olympic
peninsula...west of the mountains...and that one is likely bringing
up the rear.

It is this junk in the trunk...so to speak...that will be the main
concern for forecast today. Models remain consistent with moisture
continuing to wrap around the Low center for much of the day
today...keeping the chance for showers present over Western WA. By
this evening however...upper level ridging is still expected to
begin building over the area and...as has likely been stated in many
previous discussions...will kick off a warmer...drier period
extending into next week. To stay focused on the short
term...heading into the upcoming weekend...the warming trend will
bring temps to the mid 60s along the water and a degree or two above
70 for the interior lowlands on Saturday. Sunday should prove
warmer...with around 70 near the water and mid to upper 70s in the
interior lowlands.

Inherited forecast covers all of the above well...so only minor
cosmetic changes made.  SMR

.LONG TERM...Getting into the start of next week...models have begun
to introduce a shortwave for Monday. This does not look to have much
of an impact over the area...however...may result in very slight
chance pops over the Cascades. Kept POPs low for this feature for
now as this is only the second GFS run to feature this
solution...however...confidence is growing as ECMWF has seemed to
latch on to this as well. Temps look to peak on Monday before
dropping down a few degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday. Not so much
due to the aforementioned meager shortwave...but more likely to the
credit of the ridge axis shifting further east allowing for some
strengthening to the onshore flow. Still...this ridge looks to be in
place for a while...so looking for a dry...warm week ahead.  SMR

&&

.AVIATION...An upper low over Western Washington will move into
Eastern Washington this morning and then over Western Montana
this afternoon. An upper ridge over the offshore waters today will
move over Western Washington tonight. Southerly flow aloft will
become westerly behind the upper low today. At the surface,
onshore flow will prevail with high pressure offshore and lower
pressure inland.

The air mass is moist and slightly unstable with a mix of low and
mid clouds. A Puget Sound Convergence Zone over King County will
likely linger for a few more hours then break up late this
morning.

KSEA...A Puget Sound Convergence Zone is sitting just north of
the terminal early this morning with associated low clouds and
showers affecting the area. The convergence zone is expected to
weaken and break up later this morning but a batch of showers is
also expected to move in from the southwest around midday so low
clouds will probably persist most of the day. Southerly wind 5-10
knots. Schneider

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow will prevail for the next several days with
high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Small craft
advisory west winds are likely in the Central and East Strait
most evenings with this pattern. There will also probably be some
small craft advisory northwest winds for the coastal waters most
evenings starting Saturday as northerly gradients tighten a bit.
Schneider

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
     Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
     East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
     Islands.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KSEW 241025
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
320 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will move east of the Cascades
this morning...although wrap around moisture will still allow for
the chance for showers through the day today. Upper ridging will
start to build over Western Washington by tonight...bringing warmer
temperatures and drier conditions Saturday and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR satellite imagery shows the upper level low right
over Western WA at the time of this writing. While the radar imagery
is rife with weak echoes...there are two larger echoes with the best
likelihood for showers...one extending over much of King
County...likely ahead of the low center...and one over the Olympic
peninsula...west of the mountains...and that one is likely bringing
up the rear.

It is this junk in the trunk...so to speak...that will be the main
concern for forecast today. Models remain consistent with moisture
continuing to wrap around the Low center for much of the day
today...keeping the chance for showers present over Western WA. By
this evening however...upper level ridging is still expected to
begin building over the area and...as has likely been stated in many
previous discussions...will kick off a warmer...drier period
extending into next week. To stay focused on the short
term...heading into the upcoming weekend...the warming trend will
bring temps to the mid 60s along the water and a degree or two above
70 for the interior lowlands on Saturday. Sunday should prove
warmer...with around 70 near the water and mid to upper 70s in the
interior lowlands.

Inherited forecast covers all of the above well...so only minor
cosmetic changes made.  SMR

.LONG TERM...Getting into the start of next week...models have begun
to introduce a shortwave for Monday. This does not look to have much
of an impact over the area...however...may result in very slight
chance pops over the Cascades. Kept POPs low for this feature for
now as this is only the second GFS run to feature this
solution...however...confidence is growing as ECMWF has seemed to
latch on to this as well. Temps look to peak on Monday before
dropping down a few degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday. Not so much
due to the aforementioned meager shortwave...but more likely to the
credit of the ridge axis shifting further east allowing for some
strengthening to the onshore flow. Still...this ridge looks to be in
place for a while...so looking for a dry...warm week ahead.  SMR

&&

.AVIATION...An upper low over Western Washington will move into
Eastern Washington this morning and then over Western Montana
this afternoon. An upper ridge over the offshore waters today will
move over Western Washington tonight. Southerly flow aloft will
become westerly behind the upper low today. At the surface,
onshore flow will prevail with high pressure offshore and lower
pressure inland.

The air mass is moist and slightly unstable with a mix of low and
mid clouds. A Puget Sound Convergence Zone over King County will
likely linger for a few more hours then break up late this
morning.

KSEA...A Puget Sound Convergence Zone is sitting just north of
the terminal early this morning with associated low clouds and
showers affecting the area. The convergence zone is expected to
weaken and break up later this morning but a batch of showers is
also expected to move in from the southwest around midday so low
clouds will probably persist most of the day. Southerly wind 5-10
knots. Schneider

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow will prevail for the next several days with
high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Small craft
advisory west winds are likely in the Central and East Strait
most evenings with this pattern. There will also probably be some
small craft advisory northwest winds for the coastal waters most
evenings starting Saturday as northerly gradients tighten a bit.
Schneider

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
     Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
     East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
     Islands.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240958
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
259 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system and a few rain showers
will remain over the region this morning...then move east of the area
this afternoon/evening. High pressure will build into the area
tonight and Saturday, bringing a period of dry weather and warmer
temperatures that will extend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)...An upper level low pressure
system remains over WA/OR this morning with the sfc front well to
the east. The region received decent rainfall Thursday afternoon/
evening as the upper level low moved into the area. There were
several reports in the 0.3 to 0.6 inch range and a few stations in
the higher terrain reported near 1 inch.

Showers will continue through the morning hours today...then begin to
quickly taper off this afternoon/evening as the upper level low moves
east of the area. A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to move
into the area tonight and Saturday which will mark the beginning of a
very nice stretch of summer weather that will last well into next
week. Overall, expect a few clouds along the coast and sunny skies
elsewhere Sat and Sun.  This weekend, temperatures will run in the
mid 60s on the coast and upper 70s to lower 80s inland.  The warm,
pleasant weather will persist well into next week. Very nice summer
weather expected.  /twilde

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...Previous discussion
follows...Broad upper level ridging will continue to bring warm and
dry conditions to the forecast area through late next week.
This will bring sunny skies to the interior, with temps warming into
the mid 80s by Tuesday. Models continue to show several weak
shortwaves moving across the Pac NW next week. These shortwaves will
help to deepen the marine layer along the coast which, combined with
an onshore flow pattern, should keep temps in the 60s under partly
cloudy skies. All in all, beautiful/seasonal weather is expected next
week. /64

 Models indicate a very weak shortwave traverses the area late Sunday
into Monday morning, but not strong enough for more than some
increasing clouds.
&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions early this morning across nw
Oregon...although occasional MVFR conditions have been seen mainly
along the coast as scattered showers continued to move through. As
the upper low moves across the region this morning, expect scattered
showers to continue. VFR conditions expected to remain dominant at
TAF sites, but temporary MVFR conditions remain likely at times
through 20z. Showers expected to diminish later in the day, with
diminishing chances for MVFR conditions through 01z. Mainly VFR
flight conditions expected tonight after 01z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR conditions today and tonight, but
temporary MVFR conditions can be expected through 20z as scattered
showers continue. Just a slight chance of seeing conditions lowering
to MVFR category between 20z and 01z.

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough of low pres will move e across the waters
early this morning. overnight into early Fri. continue to expect
winds to remain mainly under 20 kt, but there is a chance for
isolated gusts 20 to 25 kt over the northern portions of PZZ250 and
PZZ270. A ridge of high pres pushes in later today and remains into
Sat. As a trough of low pres builds up along the S Oregon coast late
Sat into Sat night will see north winds increasing by late Sat, with
gusts likely to reach small craft criteria. The north winds are
expected to continue into early next week. With the increase in
north winds, steep seas are likely to develop as a result of the
wind waves and fresh swell. Wave heights however are expected to
remain under 10 ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240947
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system will produce showery, breezy, and cool
conditions over the Inland Northwest today. Brief heavy downpours
and thunderstorms will be possible over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington this afternoon. Dry weather will arrive for
the weekend. Much warmer temperatures are expected next week with
most areas climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: Models are in good agreement of a closed low tracking east
today from Ellensburg, WA early this morning to Kalispell, MT late
this afternoon. This will result in a cool and showery day for the
Inland NW. In addition...uncapped CAPE of 300-700 J/KG will lead
to isolated thunderstorms capable of producing small hail...gusty
winds...and brief moderate to heavy rain. Thunderstorms this
morning will be focused mainly over NE Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle where the best forcing and mid level instability will
lie...before expanding into most of the eastern third of
Washington and north Idaho during the afternoon as a 500mb cold
pool of -23 to -25C tracks over SE Washington into the Lewiston
area in the afternoon. Downslope flow off the Cascades into the
Wenatchee and Moses Lake area with westerly 850mb winds of 20-30
kts should limit coverage of showers in this area
today...especially in the afternoon as the low pulls away from
Central Washington.

Tonight: A combination of mid level warming and drying and loss
of daytime heating this evening should result in a quick decrease
in convection with the Idaho Panhandle last to dry out. A moist
boundary layer over the Idaho Panhandle combined with some
clearing overnight will lead to areas of stratus and patchy fog.
This fog may also cover the northern valleys by early Saturday
morning.

Saturday: A drier westerly flow will result in warmer and drier
conditions. A weak wave clipping the Canadian border may result in
a few showers over the mountains near the Canadian border in the
afternoon. JW

Sunday: Temperatures will climb into the 80s on Sunday as the high
pressure ridge over the Southwest bulges northward. It looks like
a good early summer day to spend at the lake. Mostly sunny skies
with light east or northeast winds in the morning becoming
variable in the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday: The models continue to forecast a weak upper
level disturbance moving over the top of the ridge in the
Monday/Tuesday time frame. There is decent agreement between the
GFS, GFS Ensemble, and Canadian that there will be sufficient
moisture and instability for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Cascades Monday afternoon and evening.
Steep mid-level lapse rates may even allow high based convection
to persist into the night time hours Monday. This type of pattern
can produce nocturnal showers and thunderstorms, and the GFS
suggests the potential for early morning convection over the
Cascades, northeast Oregon, Southeast Washington, and the Idaho
Panhandle. Putting shower and thunderstorm chances aside, 850mb
temperatures rising to 22C to 24C Monday and Tuesday will likely
yield afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. June will come
to an end with above normal temperatures. /GKoch

Wednesday through Friday: No big changes to the extended forecast.
Still expecting the upper ridge of high pressure to dominate
through mid week keeping us hot and dry. Temperatures will remain
in the upper 80s and low 90s through the period as the surface
thermal ridge remains over the Inland Northwest through at least
next weekend. The best chance for an occasional shower or
thunderstorm over the mountains of N Idaho and along the Canadian
border will be Friday afternoon as the ridge begins to edge to the
east, but overall we will stay dry. /williams

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: After 08z...a deep low pressure system tracking into
the region will promote a band of steady rain across N Idaho and
into SE WA with Spokane on the western fringes. Meanwhile, sct
-shra will develop under the low center in and around north-
central WA impacting Wenatchee...Moses Lake...and Omak. There is a
small chance for a few lightning strikes in these locations but
confidence is low.  The atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable
aft 18z with widely sct -shra and isold t-storms over portions of NE
WA and N ID...waning and clearing out aft 02z Sat. Confidence for
thunder placement carries moderate uncertainty and may be shifting
into Ern WA...pending where the best sun breaks occur. The system
will also bring gusty west winds with gusts near 25 mph common
through the day. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  48  73  52  82  57 /  80  20   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  48  72  49  82  54 /  80  40   0   0   0   0
Pullman        61  45  72  45  81  51 /  70  30   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       71  50  81  54  89  60 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       65  46  76  48  84  53 /  80  40  10  10   0  10
Sandpoint      58  45  69  45  78  50 /  90  50  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        55  44  69  44  79  50 /  90  60   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     73  49  80  52  89  58 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      71  53  80  58  87  62 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           70  49  79  53  86  58 /  80  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240524
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, cool and showery weather will continue tonight into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. There is
the potential for thunderstorms particularly over the Idaho
Panhandle and northeast Washington. Dry and warm summer like
conditions will develop over the weekend and continue into next
week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: As of 930PM...the last of the surface based
instability is traversing straddling the Okanogan/Ferry County
border in the form of one cell. This activity is not producing a
lot of lightning but still some downpours and possible small hail
so cannot rule out 1-2 strikes before departing to the north. This
is also associated with one last small scale wave ejecting from
the approaching low.

Following a brief break...the weather will trend wetter overnight.
To the east, a cold front will be responsible for steady rain
with embedded t-storms over Idaho/SE WA. 00z models continue to
indicate potential rainfall amounts from 0.15-0.75" with this
activity. The main uncertainty will be how far west into Ern WA
this activity will expand.

Further west, showers are expected to fill back across the
Cascades, Western Basin, and into Okanogan County as the cold pool
drifts overhead. With the loss of heating, instability is not
expected to be as strong but local rainfall amounts near a 0.25"
will be possible. I think a few cells may be able to put down an
lightning strike but with the strongest lift passing to the south,
opted to stick with inherited forecast and keep wx as mainly
showers.

Also made some changes to Friday. Evening models indicate the far
north Panhandle may stay cloudy through much of the day and the
best sunshine may actually be over NE WA down to the
Palouse...slicing through the Ern Basin. This carries modest
uncertainty but noticed this trend with several members and
decreased the t-storm wording some while increasing for portions
of WA. Storms that develop over NE WA will track to the
south/southeast late afternoon and evening.  /sb


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: After 08z...a deep low pressure system tracking into
the region will promote a band of steady rain across N Idaho and
into SE WA with Spokane on the western fringes. Meanwhile, sct
-shra will develop under the low center in and around north-
central WA impacting Wenatchee...Moses Lake...and Omak. There is a
small chance for a few lightning strikes in these locations but
confidence is low.  The atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable
aft 18z with widely sct -shra and isold t-storms over portions of NE
WA and N ID...waning and clearing out aft 02z Sat. Confidence for
thunder placement carries moderate uncertainty and may be shifting
into Ern WA...pending where the best sun breaks occur. The system
will also bring gusty west winds with gusts near 25 mph common
through the day. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  63  48  73  52  82 /  30  80  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  48  72  49  82 /  30  80  40   0   0   0
Pullman        49  63  45  72  45  81 /  50  70  30   0   0   0
Lewiston       56  70  50  81  54  89 /  50  70  20   0   0   0
Colville       50  64  46  76  48  84 /  40  80  40  10  10   0
Sandpoint      49  57  45  69  45  78 /  30  90  50  10  10  10
Kellogg        48  54  44  69  44  79 /  70  90  60   0   0  10
Moses Lake     52  74  49  80  52  89 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      52  73  53  81  58  87 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           52  70  49  80  53  86 /  40  50  10   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240443
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
943 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, cool and showery weather will continue tonight into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. There is
the potential for thunderstorms particularly over the Idaho
Panhandle and northeast Washington. Dry and warm summer like
conditions will develop over the weekend and continue into next
week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: As of 930PM...the last of the surface based
instability is traversing straddling the Okanogan/Ferry County
border in the form of one cell. This activity is not producing a
lot of lightning but still some downpours and possible small hail
so cannot rule out 1-2 strikes before departing to the north. This
is also associated with one last small scale wave ejecting from
the approaching low.

Following a brief break...the weather will trend wetter overnight.
To the east, a cold front will be responsible for steady rain
with embedded t-storms over Idaho/SE WA. 00z models continue to
indicate potential rainfall amounts from 0.15-0.75" with this
activity. The main uncertainty will be how far west into Ern WA
this activity will expand.

Further west, showers are expected to fill back across the
Cascades, Western Basin, and into Okanogan County as the cold pool
drifts overhead. With the loss of heating, instability is not
expected to be as strong but local rainfall amounts near a 0.25"
will be possible. I think a few cells may be able to put down an
lightning strike but with the strongest lift passing to the south,
opted to stick with inherited forecast and keep wx as mainly
showers.

Also made some changes to Friday. Evening models indicate the far
north Panhandle may stay cloudy through much of the day and the
best sunshine may actually be over NE WA down to the
Palouse...slicing through the Ern Basin. This carries modest
uncertainty but noticed this trend with several members and
decreased the t-storm wording some while increasing for portions
of WA. Storms that develop over NE WA will track to the
south/southeast late afternoon and evening.  /sb


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Scattered showers and isolated t-storms will remain a
threat across the Upper Columbia Basin and northern mountains
through 03z. After 08z...a deep low pressure system tracking into
the region will promote a band of steady rain across N Idaho and
into SE WA with Spokane on the western fringes. Meanwhile, sct
-shra will develop under the low center in and around north-
central WA. The atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable aft 18z
with widely sct -shra and isold t-storms over much of NE WA and N
ID until 02z Sat. The system will also bring gusty west winds with
gusts near 25 mph common through the day.  /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  63  48  73  52  82 /  30  80  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  48  72  49  82 /  30  80  40   0   0   0
Pullman        49  63  45  72  45  81 /  50  70  30   0   0   0
Lewiston       56  70  50  81  54  89 /  50  70  20   0   0   0
Colville       50  64  46  76  48  84 /  40  80  40  10  10   0
Sandpoint      49  57  45  69  45  78 /  30  90  50  10  10  10
Kellogg        48  54  44  69  44  79 /  70  90  60   0   0  10
Moses Lake     52  74  49  80  52  89 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      52  73  53  81  58  87 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           52  70  49  80  53  86 /  40  50  10   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240414
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
913 PM PDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system is moving overhead
tonight, bringing rain showers and cooler temperatures across the
region through mid day Friday before conditions start to dry out and
warm up for the weekend. High pressure will build into the area
Friday night and Saturday,bringing a period of dry weather and warmer
temperatures that should extend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday Night through Sunday)...Stalled frontal
boundary has finally started moving off to the east.  It appears that
vertical motion was enhanced by divergence aloft associated with the
upper-level jet. This helped to generate heavier rain this evening in
Clark County and around the Portland Metro area. Currently, the base
of the upper-level trough is sitting right over Astoria, generating
additional showers currently moving onto the Coast and into the
Coast Range. The cold pool aloft associated with this upper-level
trough will act to steepen lapse rates with this trough, which we are
seeing with the convective showers along the Coast.  Do think that
though MUCAPE values are around 200-300 J/kg around Portland and
Astoria northward, without daytime heating it will be hard to
generate anything stronger than moderate showers as the trough axis
swings through. A few showers will linger into Friday morning, but
expect clearing conditions through the afternoon with partly cloudy
skies by Friday evening across most of the area. Shortwave ridging
builds in late Friday into Saturday, flattening out over the weekend
with temperatures gradually getting warmer. Expect morning clouds
along the Coast through the weekend and mostly sunny skies everywhere
else across Southwest Washington and Northwest Oregon.-McCoy

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...No changes. Previous
discussion follows...Broad upper level ridging will continue to bring
warm and dry conditions to the forecast area through late next week.
This will bring sunny skies to the interior, with temps warming into
the mid 80s by Tuesday. Models continue to show several weak
shortwaves moving across the Pac NW next week. These shortwaves will
help to deepen the marine layer along the coast which, combined with
an onshore flow pattern, should keep temps in the 60s under partly
cloudy skies. All in all, beautiful/seasonal weather is expected next
week. /64
&&

.AVIATION...Conditions have improved to mainly VFR late this
evening as the heavier shower activity during the late afternoon
and early evening has weakened somewhat. However, there will be a
threat for showers overnight and through much of Fri. The fcst
models indicate that MVFR cigs may redevelop overnight, roughly
between 09Z and 12Z as a trough of low pres rotates onshore.
Conditions should return to predominantly VFR again by late
morning Fri and continue through the rest of the day. Shower
threat to end from south to north later in the day

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions should persist through the
rest of the evening. Showers likely to increase again overnight,
with MVFR conditions expected to develop between 09Z and 12Z.
Conditions should become VFR again by around 18Z. Shower threat
will end by late afternoon or early evening. Pyle

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough of low pres will move through the waters
overnight into early Fri. Think that winds will generally remain
below 20 kt, but there is a chance for isolated gusts 20 to 25 kt
over the far northern portions of PZZ250 and PZZ270. A ridge of
high pres pushes in later Fri. Combined with a trough of low pres
building north along the coast during the weekend expect
increasing north winds by late Sat, with gusts likely to reach
small craft criteria. The north winds are expected to continue
into early next week. With the increase in north winds, steep seas
are likely to develop as a result of the wind waves and fresh
swell. Wave heights however are expected to remain under 10 ft.
Pyle

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 240314
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
814 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low over the Washington coastal waters
will move east across central portions of the area late tonight
then will move east of the Cascades Friday morning. Showers will
be likely across much of the area tonight and Friday, then will
end Friday evening. Snow levels will fall to 5000 to 6000 feet
late tonight through Friday. Upper ridging will give a warming
trend and drier conditions Saturday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The center of a 557 DAM upper low is sitting over
the outer coastal waters this evening. This upper low will move
east across central portions of Western Washington late tonight
into early Friday. Area radars show showers across the region
moving into the Cascades, but lingering in an area of convergence
to the northeast of the Olympic Peninsula. Scattered light showers
continue from the Puget Sound area southwestward into the southern
interior and along the coast. While there may be a bit of a lull
to the shower activity for the next several hours, satellite
imagery and the Langley Hill radar on the coast show wrap around
moisture from northern Vancouver Island into the Offshore waters
poised to move into the area later tonight and Friday morning with
the latest HRRR solutions bringing the best shot of precipitation
to the southern half of the forecast area and the coast.
Convergence zone activity will be likely from Skagit and Island
counties into Snohomish county and the Central Cascades. Only a
couple of thunderstorms were seen this afternoon, but most of the
thunderstorm activity this evening has shifted east of the
Cascades and into British Columbia. There remains a slight chance
of thunderstorms this evening as the mid levels destabilize
somewhat with the passing upper level low. An update to refine
POPS and forecast rainfall amounts for the tonight through Friday
evening periods was issued based on satellite imagery, incoming
mesoscale models and the latest runs of the HRRR.

Snow levels in the mountains will fall to 5000 to 6000 feet in the
mountains as the upper low moves across the area late tonight and
Friday. However, snow levels will be high enough that winter
weather advisories will not be needed. A few brief inches of wet
snow are possible at or just above Paradise Ranger Station, but
that will melt off quickly after falling.

Onshore flow and moisture wrapping around the upper low will
continue to give a chance of showers through Friday. Showers will
be most likely during the afternoon hours in the central Puget
Sound convergence zone area and in the Cascades.

Showers will taper off Friday evening as the upper low moves off
to the east and upper level ridging builds into the Pacific
Northwest. Expect Saturday and Sunday to be progressively warmer
and drier with no precipitation expected as the upper ridge
pattern takes hold. Albrecht

.LONG TERM...From the afternoon Long Term discussion: The models
are all in agreement that the ridging pattern will be in place
over Western Washington for the remainder of the period for warm
temperatures and dry weather. In the most recent runs, models have
also hinted at a weak shortwave trough moving through late Monday,
possibly bringing afternoon and evening showers to the Cascades.
Have edited the forecast for this period accordingly. Smith

&&

.AVIATION...An upper low over Western Washington will move over
Eastern Washington Friday morning and then over Western Montana
Friday afternoon. An upper ridge will move over the offshore
waters on Friday. Southerly flow aloft will become northwest
behind the upper low on Friday. At the surface, onshore flow will
prevail with high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland.

The air mass is moist and somewhat unstable. Low level onshore
flow will should allow low clouds to fill back in tonight most
areas as winds die down and the air mass becomes a bit more
stable. The low clouds will probably break up a bit later Friday
with daytime heating but the low levels will remain moist and at
least some low clouds will likely linger.

A Puget Sound Convergence Zone north of Seattle will likely
linger into the morning hours on Friday before breaking up.


KSEA...Low clouds have scattered this evening but they are
expected to fill in again later tonight. Low clouds will probably
lift and break up Friday afternoon but improvement will probably
be modest at best. The thunderstorm threat at the TAF for this
evening appears to be pretty much over. Southerly wind 6-12 knots.
Schneider

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow will prevail for the next several days with
high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Small craft
advisory west winds are likely in the Central and East Strait
most evenings with this pattern.

For tonight, winds will be easing all waters as a front pulls away
and onshore gradients gradually relax. Schneider

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Admiralty
     Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-
     Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KSEW 240314
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
814 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low over the Washington coastal waters
will move east across central portions of the area late tonight
then will move east of the Cascades Friday morning. Showers will
be likely across much of the area tonight and Friday, then will
end Friday evening. Snow levels will fall to 5000 to 6000 feet
late tonight through Friday. Upper ridging will give a warming
trend and drier conditions Saturday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The center of a 557 DAM upper low is sitting over
the outer coastal waters this evening. This upper low will move
east across central portions of Western Washington late tonight
into early Friday. Area radars show showers across the region
moving into the Cascades, but lingering in an area of convergence
to the northeast of the Olympic Peninsula. Scattered light showers
continue from the Puget Sound area southwestward into the southern
interior and along the coast. While there may be a bit of a lull
to the shower activity for the next several hours, satellite
imagery and the Langley Hill radar on the coast show wrap around
moisture from northern Vancouver Island into the Offshore waters
poised to move into the area later tonight and Friday morning with
the latest HRRR solutions bringing the best shot of precipitation
to the southern half of the forecast area and the coast.
Convergence zone activity will be likely from Skagit and Island
counties into Snohomish county and the Central Cascades. Only a
couple of thunderstorms were seen this afternoon, but most of the
thunderstorm activity this evening has shifted east of the
Cascades and into British Columbia. There remains a slight chance
of thunderstorms this evening as the mid levels destabilize
somewhat with the passing upper level low. An update to refine
POPS and forecast rainfall amounts for the tonight through Friday
evening periods was issued based on satellite imagery, incoming
mesoscale models and the latest runs of the HRRR.

Snow levels in the mountains will fall to 5000 to 6000 feet in the
mountains as the upper low moves across the area late tonight and
Friday. However, snow levels will be high enough that winter
weather advisories will not be needed. A few brief inches of wet
snow are possible at or just above Paradise Ranger Station, but
that will melt off quickly after falling.

Onshore flow and moisture wrapping around the upper low will
continue to give a chance of showers through Friday. Showers will
be most likely during the afternoon hours in the central Puget
Sound convergence zone area and in the Cascades.

Showers will taper off Friday evening as the upper low moves off
to the east and upper level ridging builds into the Pacific
Northwest. Expect Saturday and Sunday to be progressively warmer
and drier with no precipitation expected as the upper ridge
pattern takes hold. Albrecht

.LONG TERM...From the afternoon Long Term discussion: The models
are all in agreement that the ridging pattern will be in place
over Western Washington for the remainder of the period for warm
temperatures and dry weather. In the most recent runs, models have
also hinted at a weak shortwave trough moving through late Monday,
possibly bringing afternoon and evening showers to the Cascades.
Have edited the forecast for this period accordingly. Smith

&&

.AVIATION...An upper low over Western Washington will move over
Eastern Washington Friday morning and then over Western Montana
Friday afternoon. An upper ridge will move over the offshore
waters on Friday. Southerly flow aloft will become northwest
behind the upper low on Friday. At the surface, onshore flow will
prevail with high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland.

The air mass is moist and somewhat unstable. Low level onshore
flow will should allow low clouds to fill back in tonight most
areas as winds die down and the air mass becomes a bit more
stable. The low clouds will probably break up a bit later Friday
with daytime heating but the low levels will remain moist and at
least some low clouds will likely linger.

A Puget Sound Convergence Zone north of Seattle will likely
linger into the morning hours on Friday before breaking up.


KSEA...Low clouds have scattered this evening but they are
expected to fill in again later tonight. Low clouds will probably
lift and break up Friday afternoon but improvement will probably
be modest at best. The thunderstorm threat at the TAF for this
evening appears to be pretty much over. Southerly wind 6-12 knots.
Schneider

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow will prevail for the next several days with
high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Small craft
advisory west winds are likely in the Central and East Strait
most evenings with this pattern.

For tonight, winds will be easing all waters as a front pulls away
and onshore gradients gradually relax. Schneider

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Admiralty
     Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-
     Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232354
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
454 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, cool and showery weather will continue tonight into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. There is
the potential for thunderstorms particularly over the Idaho
Panhandle and northeast Washington. Dry and warm summer like
conditions will develop over the weekend and continue into next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...This looks like it will be the wettest
period of the forecast as the deep upper level low moves slowly
inland. For this evening the main impact will be the chance of
showers and possible thunderstorms as the atmosphere will remain
fairly unstable, especially near the Cascades and near the
Canadian Border as 500 mb temperatures drop in advance of the
upper level low. Meanwhile a shortwave trough...currently nearing
the west Cascades will overtake much of eastern Washington this
evening resulting in an increasing threat of convection. CAPE
values suggest any chance of thunderstorms will generally remain
over the mountains of northern Washington and near the Cascades,
however it would not be terribly surprising if a rogue storm
develops over the Waterville this evening. The threat of
thunderstorms will generally wane later this evening but could
reappear overnight. Model guidance remains quite consistent on
forming a SW-NE orientated band of precipitation overnight from
the SE corner of Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Most of this
precipitation is expected to form ahead of the upper level low in
an area of strong upper level difluence and ahead of a well-
defined cold front. Model cross-sections show rather deep ascent
ahead of the front and just enough instability to support some
nocturnal thunderstorms. Not sure how long the threat will persist
as it looks like things should transition to more of a stratiform
regime during the latter portions of the morning. Thunder or not,
confidence is fairly good that there should be a band of
precipitation with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.20-0.40 inches
overnight and into Friday morning with locally heavier amounts
under thunderstorms. Another area which has a smaller chance of
thunderstorms early tomorrow morning will be near the WA/BC border
near the core of the upper low. The NE-SW band of moisture and
precipitation will likely shift into MT by late morning as the low
continues its eastward migration. The threat of thunderstorms will
then likely increase across the eastern third of Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle as the 500 mb low moves overhead. By afternoon
we will likely see CAPE values ranging from 400-800 j/kg with the
best values over extreme NE Washington and the northern Panhandle.
Model soundings suggest these should be rather ordinary
thunderstorms and will generally be moving at a fast enough speed
(SE to E around 20 kts) to minimize any significant threat of
flash flooding. The other story tomorrow will be increasing winds
as the W-E surface pressure gradient increases later in the day.
850 mb winds of 25 to 30 kts combined with increasing cold air
advection should result in wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph especially
over the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and into the Spokane area.

Friday night through Saturday...the upper level low is expected to
drift rapidly to the NE during this period which will result in a
gradual drying trend. There will be a small chance of lingering
precipitation in the evening across the Panhandle as the air mass
will be slow to stabilize. There could also be a very small chance
of showers near the Canadian border on Saturday as a very weak
shortwave trough slides through southern BC during the afternoon.
fx

Saturday night through Tuesday night: Warm and mostly dry weather
can be expected for the remainder of the weekend and into early
next week. Summer is coming. The upper level ridge that rebounds
on Saturday will get flattened Saturday night as jet aloft and
subsequent storm track gets established across southern BC into
southern Alberta. A disturbance in this flow ripples by Saturday
night with some mid and high level clouds near the Canadian border
with possibly a mountain evening shower. But most other areas will
remain mostly clear. High pressure will be over the Inland
Northwest for Sunday with light surface winds, although residual
moisture and instability may lead to afternoon and evening
mountain convection near the Canadian border of north Idaho on
Sunday. The medium range models want to continue to hold on to the
weak ridge into early next week with a low rotating in the Gulf of
Alaska and sending weak impulses into BC. The next significant
disturbance arrives by Monday afternoon and evening with another
potential for mountain showers and thunderstorms over the north
Cascades and northern mountains. There is another smaller chance
of diurnal convection again on Tuesday. Winds will be light across
the region, switching to the north for Sunday and Monday, and then
increased gap winds across the Cascades Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Overall, the main weather story will be temperatures.
Temperatures will continue to warm on Sunday with readings
widespread in the 80s and this trend will continue into early next
week with 90 degree temperatures becoming more widespread. This
will be a noticeable change given only 2 days out of the last 2
weeks have seen daytime highs above normal. /rfox.

Wednesday through Thursday... No major changes to the far
extended forecast with the ridge of high pressure expected to
hold over the region. An occasional weak disturbance/wave may
ripple through from time to time but an overall dry forecast is
expected. Main talking point would be the hot temperatures
expected with highs in the upper 80s and into the 90s.
Temperatures Thursday have been trended upward with 850 mb
temperatures in the mid 20s C. /Kalin

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Scattered showers and isolated t-storms will remain a
threat across the Upper Columbia Basin and northern mountains
through 03z. After 08z...a deep low pressure system tracking into
the region will promote a band of steady rain across N Idaho and
into SE WA with Spokane on the western fringes. Meanwhile, sct
-shra will develop under the low center in and around north-
central WA. The atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable aft 18z
with widely sct -shra and isold t-storms over much of NE WA and N
ID until 02z Sat. The system will also bring gusty west winds with
gusts near 25 mph common through the day.  /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  63  48  73  52  82 /  30  80  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  48  72  49  82 /  30  80  40   0   0   0
Pullman        49  63  45  72  45  81 /  50  70  30   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  70  50  81  54  89 /  50  70  20   0   0   0
Colville       50  64  46  76  48  84 /  40  80  40  10  10   0
Sandpoint      49  57  45  69  45  78 /  30  90  50  10  10  10
Kellogg        48  54  44  69  44  79 /  70  90  60   0   0  10
Moses Lake     52  74  49  80  52  89 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      52  73  53  81  58  87 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           51  70  49  80  53  86 /  30  50  10   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232354
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
454 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, cool and showery weather will continue tonight into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. There is
the potential for thunderstorms particularly over the Idaho
Panhandle and northeast Washington. Dry and warm summer like
conditions will develop over the weekend and continue into next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...This looks like it will be the wettest
period of the forecast as the deep upper level low moves slowly
inland. For this evening the main impact will be the chance of
showers and possible thunderstorms as the atmosphere will remain
fairly unstable, especially near the Cascades and near the
Canadian Border as 500 mb temperatures drop in advance of the
upper level low. Meanwhile a shortwave trough...currently nearing
the west Cascades will overtake much of eastern Washington this
evening resulting in an increasing threat of convection. CAPE
values suggest any chance of thunderstorms will generally remain
over the mountains of northern Washington and near the Cascades,
however it would not be terribly surprising if a rogue storm
develops over the Waterville this evening. The threat of
thunderstorms will generally wane later this evening but could
reappear overnight. Model guidance remains quite consistent on
forming a SW-NE orientated band of precipitation overnight from
the SE corner of Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Most of this
precipitation is expected to form ahead of the upper level low in
an area of strong upper level difluence and ahead of a well-
defined cold front. Model cross-sections show rather deep ascent
ahead of the front and just enough instability to support some
nocturnal thunderstorms. Not sure how long the threat will persist
as it looks like things should transition to more of a stratiform
regime during the latter portions of the morning. Thunder or not,
confidence is fairly good that there should be a band of
precipitation with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.20-0.40 inches
overnight and into Friday morning with locally heavier amounts
under thunderstorms. Another area which has a smaller chance of
thunderstorms early tomorrow morning will be near the WA/BC border
near the core of the upper low. The NE-SW band of moisture and
precipitation will likely shift into MT by late morning as the low
continues its eastward migration. The threat of thunderstorms will
then likely increase across the eastern third of Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle as the 500 mb low moves overhead. By afternoon
we will likely see CAPE values ranging from 400-800 j/kg with the
best values over extreme NE Washington and the northern Panhandle.
Model soundings suggest these should be rather ordinary
thunderstorms and will generally be moving at a fast enough speed
(SE to E around 20 kts) to minimize any significant threat of
flash flooding. The other story tomorrow will be increasing winds
as the W-E surface pressure gradient increases later in the day.
850 mb winds of 25 to 30 kts combined with increasing cold air
advection should result in wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph especially
over the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and into the Spokane area.

Friday night through Saturday...the upper level low is expected to
drift rapidly to the NE during this period which will result in a
gradual drying trend. There will be a small chance of lingering
precipitation in the evening across the Panhandle as the air mass
will be slow to stabilize. There could also be a very small chance
of showers near the Canadian border on Saturday as a very weak
shortwave trough slides through southern BC during the afternoon.
fx

Saturday night through Tuesday night: Warm and mostly dry weather
can be expected for the remainder of the weekend and into early
next week. Summer is coming. The upper level ridge that rebounds
on Saturday will get flattened Saturday night as jet aloft and
subsequent storm track gets established across southern BC into
southern Alberta. A disturbance in this flow ripples by Saturday
night with some mid and high level clouds near the Canadian border
with possibly a mountain evening shower. But most other areas will
remain mostly clear. High pressure will be over the Inland
Northwest for Sunday with light surface winds, although residual
moisture and instability may lead to afternoon and evening
mountain convection near the Canadian border of north Idaho on
Sunday. The medium range models want to continue to hold on to the
weak ridge into early next week with a low rotating in the Gulf of
Alaska and sending weak impulses into BC. The next significant
disturbance arrives by Monday afternoon and evening with another
potential for mountain showers and thunderstorms over the north
Cascades and northern mountains. There is another smaller chance
of diurnal convection again on Tuesday. Winds will be light across
the region, switching to the north for Sunday and Monday, and then
increased gap winds across the Cascades Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Overall, the main weather story will be temperatures.
Temperatures will continue to warm on Sunday with readings
widespread in the 80s and this trend will continue into early next
week with 90 degree temperatures becoming more widespread. This
will be a noticeable change given only 2 days out of the last 2
weeks have seen daytime highs above normal. /rfox.

Wednesday through Thursday... No major changes to the far
extended forecast with the ridge of high pressure expected to
hold over the region. An occasional weak disturbance/wave may
ripple through from time to time but an overall dry forecast is
expected. Main talking point would be the hot temperatures
expected with highs in the upper 80s and into the 90s.
Temperatures Thursday have been trended upward with 850 mb
temperatures in the mid 20s C. /Kalin

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Scattered showers and isolated t-storms will remain a
threat across the Upper Columbia Basin and northern mountains
through 03z. After 08z...a deep low pressure system tracking into
the region will promote a band of steady rain across N Idaho and
into SE WA with Spokane on the western fringes. Meanwhile, sct
-shra will develop under the low center in and around north-
central WA. The atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable aft 18z
with widely sct -shra and isold t-storms over much of NE WA and N
ID until 02z Sat. The system will also bring gusty west winds with
gusts near 25 mph common through the day.  /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  63  48  73  52  82 /  30  80  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  48  72  49  82 /  30  80  40   0   0   0
Pullman        49  63  45  72  45  81 /  50  70  30   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  70  50  81  54  89 /  50  70  20   0   0   0
Colville       50  64  46  76  48  84 /  40  80  40  10  10   0
Sandpoint      49  57  45  69  45  78 /  30  90  50  10  10  10
Kellogg        48  54  44  69  44  79 /  70  90  60   0   0  10
Moses Lake     52  74  49  80  52  89 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      52  73  53  81  58  87 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           51  70  49  80  53  86 /  30  50  10   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 232243
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
343 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will move across the area this
evening through Friday morning, bringing numerous showers, a
chance of evening thunderstorms, and lowering snow levels to 5000
to 6000 feet towards the morning hours. Showers will taper off
Friday as a ridging pattern sets in. Warmer and drier weather will
settle in over the weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Numerous showers are on the radar over Western
Washington, some of which may be heavy at times. Although there
has not been any lightning activity yet, more dynamic forcing will
be present this evening as an upper low moves directly overhead,
and a few lightning strikes is not out of the question. Have kept
the chance of thunderstorms in for this evening and expanded it a
bit northward to include the Strait of Juan De Fuca.

As the upper low moves over the Cascades and out of the area late
tonight into Friday morning, snow levels will drop to 5000 to 6000
feet for a brief period and some precipitation in the higher
recreational areas may fall as summer snow. Accumulations at
Rainy/Washington Passes and Paradise, if any, will not total more
than a few inches and will quickly melt off.

Showers will begin to taper off Friday as the upper low moves east
and an upper ridge settles in. Expect Saturday and Sunday to be
progressively warmer and drier with no precipitation expected as
the upper ridge pattern takes hold. Smith

.LONG TERM...The models are all in agreement that the ridging
pattern will be in place over Western Washington for the remainder
of the period for warm temperatures and dry weather. In the most
recent runs, models have also hinted at a weak shortwave trough
moving through late Monday, possibly bringing afternoon and
evening showers to the Cascades. Have edited the forecast for this
period accordingly. Smith

&&

.AVIATION...Upper level low pressure will move east across
Washington tonight, then shift away from the area Friday. Light
westerly flow aloft tonight, then northwesterly Friday. Air mass
moist, especially in the mid and lower levels. Air mass weakly
unstable this evening, then somewhat stable overnight into Friday
morning. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible until sunset but
the probability is too low to include in TAFs.

KSEA...Showers through tonight, heaviest during the evening. A mix
of MVFR and VFR clouds will lower later tonight with widespread MVFR
by early Friday morning. There is a small threat of a thunderstorm
early this evening. South-southwest wind 8-12 g22 knots.
Cigs improving to VFR Friday afternoon with more showers.

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow behind a front will produce Small Craft
winds across most the interior waters through this evening.
The strongest westerly winds will be in the strait and areas
adjacent to the Eastern Strait. Winds easing after midnight.

High pressure builds offshore Friday into the weekend and early next
week. Expect varying degrees of onshore flow. Small Craft winds can
be expected in the Strait most late afternoon and evenings.

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Admiralty
     Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Puget Sound
     and Hood Canal.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, cool and showery weather will continue tonight into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. There is
the potential for thunderstorms particularly over the Idaho
Panhandle and northeast Washington. Dry and warm summer like
conditions will develop over the weekend and continue into next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...This looks like it will be the wettest
period of the forecast as the deep upper level low moves slowly
inland. For this evening the main impact will be the chance of
showers and possible thunderstorms as the atmosphere will remain
fairly unstable, especially near the Cascades and near the
Canadian Border as 500 mb temperatures drop in advance of the
upper level low. Meanwhile a shortwave trough...currently nearing
the west Cascades will overtake much of eastern Washington this
evening resulting in an increasing threat of convection. CAPE
values suggest any chance of thunderstorms will generally remain
over the mountains of northern Washington and near the Cascades,
however it would not be terribly surprising if a rogue storm
develops over the Waterville this evening. The threat of
thunderstorms will generally wane later this evening but could
reappear overnight. Model guidance remains quite consistent on
forming a SW-NE orientated band of precipitation overnight from
the SE corner of Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Most of this
precipitation is expected to form ahead of the upper level low in
an area of strong upper level difluence and ahead of a well-
defined cold front. Model cross-sections show rather deep ascent
ahead of the front and just enough instability to support some
nocturnal thunderstorms. Not sure how long the threat will persist
as it looks like things should transition to more of a stratiform
regime during the latter portions of the morning. Thunder or not,
confidence is fairly good that there should be a band of
precipitation with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.20-0.40 inches
overnight and into Friday morning with locally heavier amounts
under thunderstorms. Another area which has a smaller chance of
thunderstorms early tomorrow morning will be near the WA/BC border
near the core of the upper low. The NE-SW band of moisture and
precipitation will likely shift into MT by late morning as the low
continues its eastward migration. The threat of thunderstorms will
then likely increase across the eastern third of Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle as the 500 mb low moves overhead. By afternoon
we will likely see CAPE values ranging from 400-800 j/kg with the
best values over extreme NE Washington and the northern Panhandle.
Model soundings suggest these should be rather ordinary
thunderstorms and will generally be moving at a fast enough speed
(SE to E around 20 kts) to minimize any significant threat of
flash flooding. The other story tomorrow will be increasing winds
as the W-E surface pressure gradient increases later in the day.
850 mb winds of 25 to 30 kts combined with increasing cold air
advection should result in wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph especially
over the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and into the Spokane area.

Friday night through Saturday...the upper level low is expected to
drift rapidly to the NE during this period which will result in a
gradual drying trend. There will be a small chance of lingering
precipitation in the evening across the Panhandle as the air mass
will be slow to stabilize. There could also be a very small chance
of showers near the Canadian border on Saturday as a very weak
shortwave trough slides through southern BC during the afternoon.
fx

Saturday night through Tuesday night: Warm and mostly dry weather
can be expected for the remainder of the weekend and into early
next week. Summer is coming. The upper level ridge that rebounds
on Saturday will get flattened Saturday night as jet aloft and
subsequent storm track gets established across southern BC into
southern Alberta. A disturbance in this flow ripples by Saturday
night with some mid and high level clouds near the Canadian border
with possibly a mountain evening shower. But most other areas will
remain mostly clear. High pressure will be over the Inland
Northwest for Sunday with light surface winds, although residual
moisture and instability may lead to afternoon and evening
mountain convection near the Canadian border of north Idaho on
Sunday. The medium range models want to continue to hold on to the
weak ridge into early next week with a low rotating in the Gulf of
Alaska and sending weak impulses into BC. The next significant
disturbance arrives by Monday afternoon and evening with another
potential for mountain showers and thunderstorms over the north
Cascades and northern mountains. There is another smaller chance
of diurnal convection again on Tuesday. Winds will be light across
the region, switching to the north for Sunday and Monday, and then
increased gap winds across the Cascades Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Overall, the main weather story will be temperatures.
Temperatures will continue to warm on Sunday with readings
widespread in the 80s and this trend will continue into early next
week with 90 degree temperatures becoming more widespread. This
will be a noticeable change given only 2 days out of the last 2
weeks have seen daytime highs above normal. /rfox.

Wednesday through Thursday... No major changes to the far
extended forecast with the ridge of high pressure expected to
hold over the region. An occasional weak disturbance/wave may
ripple through from time to time but an overall dry forecast is
expected. Main talking point would be the hot temperatures
expected with highs in the upper 80s and into the 90s.
Temperatures Thursday have been trended upward with 850 mb
temperatures in the mid 20s C. /Kalin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected to persist at least through 06z
over all sites. The main feature today will be the threat of
elevated showers this morning for the eastern sites, followed by a
threat of more showers and psbl thunderstorms this afternoon. We
do not suspect any of the t-storms will impact any of the forecast
sites, however if one were to occur the best odds would be for the
EAT site. For tonight the forecast gets more interesting as the
deep upper low moves in. This will likely result in the formation
of a narrow band of rain near the WA-ID border sometime after 10z.
If it sets up over any of the TAF sites we will likely see the
gradual development of some MVFR cigs from persistent rain.
Confidence is fair that those lowered cigs will impact PUW COE and
possibly SFF based on their elevation and proximity to the rain.
Its possible GEG and LWS could briefly hit that category as well
late in the forecast period. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  63  48  73  52  82 /  30  80  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  48  72  49  82 /  30  80  40   0   0   0
Pullman        49  63  45  72  45  81 /  50  70  30   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  70  50  81  54  89 /  50  70  20   0   0   0
Colville       50  64  46  76  48  84 /  40  80  40  10  10   0
Sandpoint      49  57  45  69  45  78 /  30  90  50  10  10  10
Kellogg        48  54  44  69  44  79 /  70  90  60   0   0  10
Moses Lake     52  74  49  80  52  89 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      52  73  53  81  58  87 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           51  70  49  80  53  86 /  30  50  10   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232141
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
239 PM PDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system will move overhead
tonight. This weather system will bring keep rain showers and cooler
temperatures in the region through mid day Friday before conditions
start to dry out and warm up for the weekend. High pressure will
build into the area Friday night and Saturday,bringing a period of
dry weather and seasonal temperatures that should extend into the
middle of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday Night through Sunday)...Weak cold front has
struggled to make it over the coast range so far this morning. Ahead
of this front, persistent southwesterly flow has kept the showers
quite numerous across the forecast area today. Expect the front to
begin it`s eastward trek later this afternoon as the upper low
arrives. Showers will become less numerous post frontal with even a
few breaks in the clouds possible. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen
this evening as the upper low moves directly overhead. This is the
only favorable variable for thunder this evening as thick cloud cover
has kept instability weak and equilibrium levels low (< 15kft). Will
keep inherited slight chance thunder mention after 00Z for the north
given the upper low track, but would not be surprised if no thunder
materializes. Otherwise, improving conditions through the day Friday
as ridging builds into the region for the weekend. /Bentley

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...Broad upper level
ridging will continue to bring warm and dry conditions to the
forecast area through late next week. This will bring sunny skies to
the interior, with temps warming into the mid 80s by Tuesday. Models
continue to show several weak shortwaves moving across the Pac NW
next week. These shortwaves will help to deepen the marine layer
along the coast which, combined with an onshore flow pattern, should
keep temps in the 60s under partly cloudy skies. All in all,
beautiful/seasonal weather is expected next week. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conditions are decreasing across the area as
mixing increases this afternoon. Conditions will continue to
improve through this evening with more VFR conditions expected.
However MVFR will likely refill late this evening and overnight.
There is a threat of thunderstorms between 22Z Thu and 03Z Fri north
of a KPDX-KTMK line.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with occasional MVFR expected at KPDX
and approaches this afternoon and evening. Should then a return to
MVFR with cigs in the 1500-2500 ft range after 08Z Fri.

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough persists just along the coastline early
this afternoon but should be shifting ashore soon. Further
offshore high pres will keep winds west to northwest into the
evening. A weak trough moves through the waters overnight and Fri.
A ridge of high pres pushes in later Fri. Combined with a trough
of low pres building north along the coast during the weekend
expect increasing north winds by late Sat, with gusts likely to
reach small craft criteria. The north winds are expected to
continue into early next week. With the increase in north winds,
steep seas are likely to develop as a result of the wind waves and
fresh swell. Wave heights however are expected to remain under 10
ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&


&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231822
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1122 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return today and linger into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday will
be particularly cool and showery over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. Warm and dry conditions will develop over
the weekend and continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of this morning and afternoon...Upper level low parked off
the Washington coast will move slowly inland through the
afternoon. This will likely result in a destabilizing trend at
least over north-central WA as 500 mb temperatures begin to fall.
Suspect we will be able to tap into this decreased stability as
this area is seeing quite a bit of sun this morning. SW to S winds
will begin to lead to orographic ascent over the north Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands which should begin the trend of increasing
the shower threat in this area. Model soundings from the NAM
suggest the instability will become deep enough to support
thunderstorms, especially as the next shortwave trough currently
plowing through western WA moves into this area. Farther east the
question of more showers and thunderstorms is a bit trickier. This
area continues to see clouds and a few elevated showers from a
weak NE-SW mid-level boundary which is associated with some
moisture and instability. This boundary will likely weaken through
the remainder of the day as it heads eastward, however not sure
how long the clouds and showers will persist, especially over N
ID. As a result the potential destabilization over this region is
much more limited. As a result we have downplayed the thunder
threat for the afternoon. Any thunderstorms which form today are
expected to move steadily N-NE around 15-25 mph so flash flooding
impacts over burn scars are not anticipated. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected to persist at least through 06z
over all sites. The main feature today will be the threat of
elevated showers this morning for the eastern sites, followed by a
threat of more showers and psbl thunderstorms this afternoon. We
do not suspect any of the t-storms will impact any of the forecast
sites, however if one were to occur the best odds would be for the
EAT site. For tonight the forecast gets more interesting as the
deep upper low moves in. This will likely result in the formation
of a narrow band of rain near the WA-ID border sometime after 10z.
If it sets up over any of the TAF sites we will likely see the
gradual development of some MVFR cigs from persistent rain.
Confidence is fair that those lowered cigs will impact PUW COE and
possibly SFF based on their elevation and proximity to the rain.
Its possible GEG and LWS could briefly hit that category as well
late in the forecast period. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  51  62  48  73  52 /  20  20  70  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  74  50  61  48  72  50 /  20  30  80  50   0   0
Pullman        73  48  62  45  72  47 /  10  60  60  20   0   0
Lewiston       82  53  71  50  80  55 /   0  60  40  10   0   0
Colville       75  49  65  47  76  48 /  40  20  70  30  10   0
Sandpoint      71  50  59  46  69  46 /  30  20  70  50  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  55  44  68  46 /  10  60  90  60  10   0
Moses Lake     80  52  73  49  80  54 /  10  10  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      77  55  71  53  81  57 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Omak           77  52  71  49  79  53 /  20  40  50  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231822
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1122 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return today and linger into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday will
be particularly cool and showery over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. Warm and dry conditions will develop over
the weekend and continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of this morning and afternoon...Upper level low parked off
the Washington coast will move slowly inland through the
afternoon. This will likely result in a destabilizing trend at
least over north-central WA as 500 mb temperatures begin to fall.
Suspect we will be able to tap into this decreased stability as
this area is seeing quite a bit of sun this morning. SW to S winds
will begin to lead to orographic ascent over the north Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands which should begin the trend of increasing
the shower threat in this area. Model soundings from the NAM
suggest the instability will become deep enough to support
thunderstorms, especially as the next shortwave trough currently
plowing through western WA moves into this area. Farther east the
question of more showers and thunderstorms is a bit trickier. This
area continues to see clouds and a few elevated showers from a
weak NE-SW mid-level boundary which is associated with some
moisture and instability. This boundary will likely weaken through
the remainder of the day as it heads eastward, however not sure
how long the clouds and showers will persist, especially over N
ID. As a result the potential destabilization over this region is
much more limited. As a result we have downplayed the thunder
threat for the afternoon. Any thunderstorms which form today are
expected to move steadily N-NE around 15-25 mph so flash flooding
impacts over burn scars are not anticipated. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected to persist at least through 06z
over all sites. The main feature today will be the threat of
elevated showers this morning for the eastern sites, followed by a
threat of more showers and psbl thunderstorms this afternoon. We
do not suspect any of the t-storms will impact any of the forecast
sites, however if one were to occur the best odds would be for the
EAT site. For tonight the forecast gets more interesting as the
deep upper low moves in. This will likely result in the formation
of a narrow band of rain near the WA-ID border sometime after 10z.
If it sets up over any of the TAF sites we will likely see the
gradual development of some MVFR cigs from persistent rain.
Confidence is fair that those lowered cigs will impact PUW COE and
possibly SFF based on their elevation and proximity to the rain.
Its possible GEG and LWS could briefly hit that category as well
late in the forecast period. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  51  62  48  73  52 /  20  20  70  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  74  50  61  48  72  50 /  20  30  80  50   0   0
Pullman        73  48  62  45  72  47 /  10  60  60  20   0   0
Lewiston       82  53  71  50  80  55 /   0  60  40  10   0   0
Colville       75  49  65  47  76  48 /  40  20  70  30  10   0
Sandpoint      71  50  59  46  69  46 /  30  20  70  50  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  55  44  68  46 /  10  60  90  60  10   0
Moses Lake     80  52  73  49  80  54 /  10  10  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      77  55  71  53  81  57 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Omak           77  52  71  49  79  53 /  20  40  50  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 231605
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
905 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low just off Vancouver Island today will continue to
slowly drift onshore. By this evening it will settle across the
Olympic Peninsula. This will bring damp and cloudy weather for
Western Washington today. Temperatures will remain below normal
with scattered rain showers and an isolated rumble of thunder
as the low pushes over the peninsula. The low should move move
fair rapidly east and by Friday will exit east out of Washington.
Lingering showers will end by Saturday as high pressure builds
into the area and temperatures warm across the area to near and
above normal by the weekend and next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
The satellite shows a cloudy day in progress west of the Cascade
Crest in Western Washington. The upper low just off Vancouver
Island will make a slow and steady eastward progression today.
Radar shows scattered bands of showers and amounts haven`t been
significant yet but off and on showers should persist most of the
day. No real changes to our forecast today. Look for temps
remaining a good 5-7 degrees below normal today with the clouds
and onshore flow and enhanced moisture.

Regarding any thunderstorm potential today. Looking at 12Z UIL
sounding, looks like surface based instability will be hard to
come by given the expected thick cloud cover. The overall
probability looks low, however will look for possible isolated
strikes in the northeast Olympic Peninsula and then in the typical
Convergence Zone area, and then Southwest areas nearer the center
of the Upper Low after 00Z this evening. Lifted Index Values show
up negative in those three areas. With lack of surface based
instability, believe those are the three possible areas because of
potential for assist from elevated heating in the Olympics. The
convergence zone may provide additional lift to help force
parcels up that will overcome lack of surface based instability.
And upper level cooling and dynamics associated with the upper
low will help to produce enhanced instability in the southwest
this evening. Will just go with the current weather grid
indicating a rather broadbrushed low end slight chance of thunder
as the overall probability is low but not a zero chance, and one
worth mentioning overall. Johnson

.LONG TERM...Previous Discussion. The aforementioned ridging looks
to remain in place Saturday...for the remainder of the
weekend...and into at least the first half of next week. This will
allow for temperatures to warm with low to mid 70s in the interior
lowlands on Saturday and into the upper 70s Sunday and into next
week. Upper level heights associated with this ridge look to
continually creep up...but fortunately onshore flow during the
forecast period looks to offset some of this heating...keeping
temps from crossing into the 80s. One last item of old
business...nice to see GFS has opted to join the remaining models
regarding its solution for Sunday. Previous runs had a shortwave-
ish sort of feature with some shower potential over the Cascades.
While it retains the feature...it has dropped the potential for
rain. Have altered the forecast accordingly...resulting in a
solidly dry forecast from Saturday to the end of the forecast
period. SMR

&&

.AVIATION...An upper level low pressure system will reach the coast
late this afternoon, and track eastward over the inland waters
tonight. Light southwest flow aloft becoming westerly tonight, then
northwesterly Friday. Air mass moist, especially in the lower
levels. Air mass becoming weakly unstable this afternoon and
evening. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible but the
probability is too low to include in TAFs.

KSEA...Skies mostly cloudy today. Widespread MVFR conditions through
early afternoon with some spotty IFR. Cigs should improve a bit
during the afternoon with mostly VFR cigs, though dropping to MVFR
at times with showers.  There is a small threat of a thunderstorm
this afternoon and early evening but this is too low to mention in
the TAF. South-southwest wind increasing to 8-12 g22 knots today.
MVFR cigs likely to develop again later tonight as the air mass
becomes more stable.  DTM

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow behind a front will produce Small Craft
winds across most the interior waters this afternoon and evening.
The strongest westerly winds will be in the strait, possibly up to
30 kt in the central/east portion. Winds easing after midnight.

A typical summer-time onshore flow pattern will prevail Friday
through Monday with high pressure offshore and lower pressure
inland. Expect small craft advisory west winds for the Central and
Eastern Strait each evening in this pattern. DTM/Schneider

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT
     tonight for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters
     Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday
     for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight PDT tonight for
     Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231602
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 207
900 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system and associated front
will move across the region today. This weather system will bring
some light rain showers to the region and some cooler temperatures.
High pressure will build into the area Friday night and Saturday,
bringing a period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures that
should extend into the middle of next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Increased pops this morning and afternoon based on current
radar trends. Not too excited about thunder chances this evening, but
cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm as the
upper low approaches, so will leave inherited thunder mention from
Astoria to Portland to Mount Hood and north. Otherwise, ongoing
forecast appears on track. /Bentley

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)...No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Satellite imagery this morning shows a compact
low pressure system off the WA coast with an attendant cold front
moving into northwest Oregon.  The front will continue to move
across the interior this morning bringing some light rain to the
region.  Should see a little uptick in shower activity this
afternoon as the upper level low approaches and colder air aloft
begins to move into the area.  Maintained the slight chance of
thunderstorms in forecast for this evening as model soundings show
some moderate instability with steep low level lapse rates and some
speed shear.  Models in good consensus moving the upper level trough
into the Northern Rockies by Friday afternoon and a shortwave ridge
of high pressure moving into the region late Friday and Saturday. tw

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) No changes. Previous
discussion follows...West/southwest flow aloft sets up for the
extended period, with a very weak/dry shortwave passage on Sunday.
This could deepen the marine layer along the central and north coast,
and push a few more morning clouds inland, but will otherwise have a
negligible effect on sensible weather. Appears the very seasonal
weather pattern developing this weekend will persist well into next
week, with low amplitude ridging aloft, light onshore flow at the
surface, patchy morning clouds but otherwise mostly clear/sunny
inland, and typical late June temperatures. Bright

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR prevailing across the area with CIGS ranging from
1500 to 2500 feet. There is local IFR CIGS primarily at the coast
but coastal mountains and Cascades are expected to remain obscured
through this evening. Should see gradual improvement this
afternoon to low VFR primarily at inland TAF sites. MVFR will
likely refill late this evening.  Showers continue today then
decrease tonight. There is a threat of thunderstorms between 22Z
Thu and 03Z north of KPDX-KTTD line.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR prevailing through about 21Z then
should see improving conditions with occasional MVFR through 08Z.
MVFR conditions are likely overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Front moved ashore earlier this morning. Winds will veer
to the nw, with peak gusts dropping below 20 kt. Late tonight
and Fri lighter winds expected as a ridge of high pres pushes in.
A trough of low pres building up the coast out of the south during
the weekend will bring increasing north winds by late Sat, with
gusts likely to reach small craft criteria. The north winds are
expected to continue into early next week. With the increase in
north winds, steep seas are likely to develop as a result of the
wind waves and fresh swell. Wave heights however are expected to
remain under 10 ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&


&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
423 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return today and linger into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday will
be particulary cool and showery over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. Warm and dry conditions will develop over
the weekend and continue into next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday night...A closed low just west of Vancouver Island
this morning will drop southeast moving into western Washington
this evening. The low then tracks over Eastern WA and N Idaho on
Friday for a cool and unsettled day. The low pulls away Friday
night resulting in diminishing showers.

Today: A wave rotating around the low will track across Central
and Northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this morning.
Due to a dry sub-cloud layer in most places, showers reaching the
ground will be isolated in nature. Exception is the Cascades and
mountains near the Canadian border where a bit stronger lift will
generate scattered showers. This wave exits by afternoon but
afternoon heating will destabilize the atmosphere with the best
afternoon instability in the North WA Cascades and northern
mountains near the Canadian border where scattered showers this
morning will help raise surface dew points. Uncapped CAPE of
400-800 J/KG will generate scattered thunderstorms with model
soundings showing gusty winds being the main threat.

Tonight: These storms will die down after sunset but with the
closed low moving into Central Washington overnight bands of
showers are likely to continue overnight in the Cascades, Okanogan
Valley, and Okanogan Highlands. Further east a band of elevated
instability ahead of the low tracks across the Lewiston area into
the Central Panhandle Mountains. Models show a band of showers
developing in this area overnight with increasing rain by Friday
morning with the potential for between 0.10-0.40 inches of rain.

Friday: As the closed low continued its eastward trek into Eastern
WA Friday morning the band of rain over the Idaho Panhandle moves
out by afternoon. A band of showers over the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands early Friday morning begins to sag south into the Upper
Basin on the back side of the low. Then as the low moves into
western Montana Friday afternoon these showers continue to expand
south and east to include most of the eastern third of Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle. In addition scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the afternoon from the Okanogan Highlands
and NE WA Mountains southeast through the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene
area and Palouse where models show an axis of best instability
with uncapped CAPE of 400-900 J/KG. Strong downslope westerly
winds off the Cascades should result in a dry afternoon for the
Wenatchee area and western Columbia Basin. Cold air advection with
this system on Friday combined with a moderate pressure gradient
will result in breezy to locally windy conditions around the
Wenatchee area, Columbia Basin, West Plains, and Palouse. JW

Saturday: Pleasant weather is expected to return to the Inland
Northwest on Saturday, just in time for the weekend. A flat high
pressure ridge will develop over Washington and north Idaho
Saturday leading to relatively light winds and partly cloudy
skies. A chilly morning Saturday will transition into a mild
afternoon with afternoon highs in the 70s and lower 80s (very
close to average).

Sunday through Tuesday: Next week will likely be warmer than
normal. The hot high pressure ridge that has baked the
Southwestern states is forecast to creep northward Sunday and
Monday. It will feel like summer with high temperatures in the 80s
and low 90s. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models prog a weak
shortwave passage Monday night into Tuesday, but it is hard to get
too excited about precipitation chances. At this time, the models
produce only enough instability for widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms over the high terrain of the north Cascades
and north Idaho Panhandle. /GKoch

Wednesday and Thursday: Typical summer conditions continue as the
upper ridge builds in over the western US. Above average
temperatures will continue to be on the gradual increase through
mid-week as the low level thermal ridge remains, keeping highs in
the lower 90s and upper 80s. Winds will remain light through the
period with only slight shower chances over the northern mountains
late Wednesday associated with a weak shortwave aloft. /williams

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and
begins to track inland late Thursday. A weaker wave tracking ahead
of the main low will bring an incr in mid and high level clouds
through morning and chance for very light showers. This moves out
in the morning then aftn heating promotes isolated aftn t-storms
mainly north of Hwy 2. The offshore low ejects inland tonight
with a line of showers expected to setup over Idaho Panhandle and
SE WA after 06z. Winds incr aft 15z with some gusts near 25 mph
through the afternoon. Wenatchee`s strongest winds look to hold
off until aft 00z. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  51  62  48  73  52 /  20  20  70  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  74  50  61  48  72  50 /  20  30  80  50   0   0
Pullman        73  48  62  45  72  47 /  10  60  60  20   0   0
Lewiston       82  53  71  50  80  55 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Colville       75  49  65  47  76  48 /  30  20  70  30  10   0
Sandpoint      71  50  59  46  69  46 /  20  20  70  50  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  55  44  68  46 /  10  60  90  60  10   0
Moses Lake     80  52  73  49  80  54 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      77  55  71  53  81  57 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Omak           77  52  71  49  79  53 /  40  40  50  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
423 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return today and linger into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday will
be particulary cool and showery over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. Warm and dry conditions will develop over
the weekend and continue into next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday night...A closed low just west of Vancouver Island
this morning will drop southeast moving into western Washington
this evening. The low then tracks over Eastern WA and N Idaho on
Friday for a cool and unsettled day. The low pulls away Friday
night resulting in diminishing showers.

Today: A wave rotating around the low will track across Central
and Northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this morning.
Due to a dry sub-cloud layer in most places, showers reaching the
ground will be isolated in nature. Exception is the Cascades and
mountains near the Canadian border where a bit stronger lift will
generate scattered showers. This wave exits by afternoon but
afternoon heating will destabilize the atmosphere with the best
afternoon instability in the North WA Cascades and northern
mountains near the Canadian border where scattered showers this
morning will help raise surface dew points. Uncapped CAPE of
400-800 J/KG will generate scattered thunderstorms with model
soundings showing gusty winds being the main threat.

Tonight: These storms will die down after sunset but with the
closed low moving into Central Washington overnight bands of
showers are likely to continue overnight in the Cascades, Okanogan
Valley, and Okanogan Highlands. Further east a band of elevated
instability ahead of the low tracks across the Lewiston area into
the Central Panhandle Mountains. Models show a band of showers
developing in this area overnight with increasing rain by Friday
morning with the potential for between 0.10-0.40 inches of rain.

Friday: As the closed low continued its eastward trek into Eastern
WA Friday morning the band of rain over the Idaho Panhandle moves
out by afternoon. A band of showers over the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands early Friday morning begins to sag south into the Upper
Basin on the back side of the low. Then as the low moves into
western Montana Friday afternoon these showers continue to expand
south and east to include most of the eastern third of Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle. In addition scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the afternoon from the Okanogan Highlands
and NE WA Mountains southeast through the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene
area and Palouse where models show an axis of best instability
with uncapped CAPE of 400-900 J/KG. Strong downslope westerly
winds off the Cascades should result in a dry afternoon for the
Wenatchee area and western Columbia Basin. Cold air advection with
this system on Friday combined with a moderate pressure gradient
will result in breezy to locally windy conditions around the
Wenatchee area, Columbia Basin, West Plains, and Palouse. JW

Saturday: Pleasant weather is expected to return to the Inland
Northwest on Saturday, just in time for the weekend. A flat high
pressure ridge will develop over Washington and north Idaho
Saturday leading to relatively light winds and partly cloudy
skies. A chilly morning Saturday will transition into a mild
afternoon with afternoon highs in the 70s and lower 80s (very
close to average).

Sunday through Tuesday: Next week will likely be warmer than
normal. The hot high pressure ridge that has baked the
Southwestern states is forecast to creep northward Sunday and
Monday. It will feel like summer with high temperatures in the 80s
and low 90s. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models prog a weak
shortwave passage Monday night into Tuesday, but it is hard to get
too excited about precipitation chances. At this time, the models
produce only enough instability for widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms over the high terrain of the north Cascades
and north Idaho Panhandle. /GKoch

Wednesday and Thursday: Typical summer conditions continue as the
upper ridge builds in over the western US. Above average
temperatures will continue to be on the gradual increase through
mid-week as the low level thermal ridge remains, keeping highs in
the lower 90s and upper 80s. Winds will remain light through the
period with only slight shower chances over the northern mountains
late Wednesday associated with a weak shortwave aloft. /williams

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and
begins to track inland late Thursday. A weaker wave tracking ahead
of the main low will bring an incr in mid and high level clouds
through morning and chance for very light showers. This moves out
in the morning then aftn heating promotes isolated aftn t-storms
mainly north of Hwy 2. The offshore low ejects inland tonight
with a line of showers expected to setup over Idaho Panhandle and
SE WA after 06z. Winds incr aft 15z with some gusts near 25 mph
through the afternoon. Wenatchee`s strongest winds look to hold
off until aft 00z. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  51  62  48  73  52 /  20  20  70  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  74  50  61  48  72  50 /  20  30  80  50   0   0
Pullman        73  48  62  45  72  47 /  10  60  60  20   0   0
Lewiston       82  53  71  50  80  55 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Colville       75  49  65  47  76  48 /  30  20  70  30  10   0
Sandpoint      71  50  59  46  69  46 /  20  20  70  50  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  55  44  68  46 /  10  60  90  60  10   0
Moses Lake     80  52  73  49  80  54 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      77  55  71  53  81  57 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Omak           77  52  71  49  79  53 /  40  40  50  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231007
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 207
303 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system and associated front
will move across the region today.  This weather system will bring
some light rain showers to the region and some cooler temperatures.
High pressure will build into the area Friday night and Saturday,
bringing a period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures that
should extend into the middle of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)...Satellite imagery this
morning shows a compact low pressure system off the WA coast with an
attendant cold front moving into northwest Oregon.  The front will
continue to move across the interior this morning bringing some light
rain to the region.  Should see a little uptick in shower activity
this afternoon as the upper level low approaches and colder air aloft
begins to move into the area.  Maintained the slight chance of
thunderstorms in forecast for this evening as model soundings show
some moderate instability with steep low level lapse rates and some
speed shear.  Models in good consensus moving the upper level trough
into the Northern Rockies by Friday afternoon and a shortwave
ridge of high pressure moving into the region late Friday and
Saturday. tw

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) No changes. Previous
discussion follows...West/southwest flow aloft sets up for the
extended period, with a very weak/dry shortwave passage on Sunday.
This could deepen the marine layer along the central and north coast,
and push a few more morning clouds inland, but will otherwise have a
negligible effect on sensible weather. Appears the very seasonal
weather pattern developing this weekend will persist well into next
week, with low amplitude ridging aloft, light onshore flow at the
surface, patchy morning clouds but otherwise mostly clear/sunny
inland, and typical late June temperatures. Bright

&&

.AVIATION...Coastal TAF sites were seeing a mix of VFR and MVFR
conditions early this morning, but as a cold front moves through
this morning expect MVFR come to be the more dominant condition
today as showers become more widespread. Tonight after 03z, still a
mix of VFR and MVFR conditions, but it is likely that as showers
become more scattered, VFR conditions are likely to become more
frequent. Inland areas were generally VFR early this morning, and
are likely to remain so until the cold front moves through towards
midday around 18z to 20z. As showers pick up in the afternoon expect
more a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions lasting through 03z. VFR
likely to become prevailing condition again inland TAF sites after
03z, but with occasional MVFR conditions mainly associated with
showers.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Patchy light rain to move across the
area during the morning hours, with predominantly VFR conditions. A
mix of VFR and MVFR conditions is likely for the afternoon after a
cold front passes through between 18z and 20z. VFR likely to become
prevailing condition again after 03z, but temporary  MVFR conditions
are still likely overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Front moving se across the waters early this morning likely
to have some wind gusts up to 25 kt. The front however is expected
to move onshore between 7 and 9 am. Behind the front winds will turn
nw, with peak gusts dropping below 20 kt, so expect to allow the
small craft advisory for winds to expire this morning. Late tonight
and Fri lighter winds expected as a ridge of high pres pushes in. A
trough of low pres building up the coast out of the south during the
weekend will bring increasing north winds by late Sat, with gusts
likely to reach small craft criteria. The north winds are expected
to continue into early next week. With the increase in north winds,
steep seas are likely to develop as a result of the wind waves and
fresh swell. Wave heights however are expected to remain under 10
ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 8 AM PDT this morning for
    Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.

&&
$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 231005
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
305 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough will approach Western Washington
today, making its way inland tonight...resulting in a cool and wet
period extending into Friday. An upper ridge will build over the
weekend and early next week giving drier and warmer conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The front associated with the much talked about upper
level trough will move through the area this morning resulting in a
first wave of showers/sprinkles before it moves eastward through the
day. Not out of the woods though as showers associated with the
upper low proper will move in soon afterward today...with current IR
satellite putting the wee beastie just off of the WA coast.

Models remain consistent that this feature and its slow plod over
the area will be the main weather factor today and Friday and thus
no surprise in the cool...wet forecast. As the Low center moves over
land this evening...models do suggest some instability which
might...emphasis on might...lead to some isolated thunder. Have to
be frank that LI values are not terribly thrilling in this
regard...right around -1...and the seemingly narrow window for this
instability appears to be another strike against. Still...the
scenario seems somewhat similar to system that moved through the
area last Saturday...and thunder was present then...so...seems like
running with inherited forecast that included isolated thunder may be
the best course of action.

Once that risk wraps up during the overnight hours...it still looks
wet for Friday as wrap around moisture from the eastbound Low
lingers over the area...resulting in more showers. Upper level
ridging will bring things to an end by Friday night...leading to
clearing skies...drier conditions and warmer temperatures for
Saturday.

Minimal changes to inherited forecast. Did take out thunderstorms
for the afternoon today and relegated them to the
evening...coinciding better with the timing of the low and best
chances for instability. Otherwise...much of the near term remains
in place and mostly unchanged.  SMR

.LONG TERM...The aforementioned ridging looks to remain in place
Saturday...for the remainder of the weekend...and into at least the
first half of next week. This will allow for temperatures to warm
with low to mid 70s in the interior lowlands on Saturday and into
the upper 70s Sunday and into next week. Upper level heights
associated with this ridge look to continually creep up...but
fortunately onshore flow during the forecast period looks to offset
some of this heating...keeping temps from crossing into the 80s. One
last item of old business...nice to see GFS has opted to join the
remaining models regarding its solution for Sunday. Previous runs
had a shortwave-ish sort of feature with some shower potential over
the Cascades. While it retains the feature...it has dropped the
potential for rain. Have altered the forecast
accordingly...resulting in a solidly dry forecast from Saturday to
the end of the forecast period.  SMR

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front will move onshore this morning. An upper
low offshore will approach from the west today and move over
Western Washington tonight. Southwest flow aloft will ease today
and become variable tonight. The air mass is moist and unstable
and will become unstable later today.

KSEA...Low clouds today and tonight. There might be some
improvement late this afternoon or early evening behind the front
but then low clouds should fill back in tonight. There is a small
threat of a thunderstorm this afternoon and early evening but this
is too low to mention in the TAF. South wind increasing to 6-12
knots today. Schneider

&&

.MARINE...A front will push onshore this morning with low end
small craft advisory winds for most waters. A typical summer-
time onshore flow pattern will prevail Friday through Monday with
high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Expect small
craft advisory west winds for the Central and Eastern Strait each
evening in this pattern. Schneider

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT
     tonight for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters
     Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday
     for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight PDT tonight for
     Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KSEW 231005
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
305 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough will approach Western Washington
today, making its way inland tonight...resulting in a cool and wet
period extending into Friday. An upper ridge will build over the
weekend and early next week giving drier and warmer conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The front associated with the much talked about upper
level trough will move through the area this morning resulting in a
first wave of showers/sprinkles before it moves eastward through the
day. Not out of the woods though as showers associated with the
upper low proper will move in soon afterward today...with current IR
satellite putting the wee beastie just off of the WA coast.

Models remain consistent that this feature and its slow plod over
the area will be the main weather factor today and Friday and thus
no surprise in the cool...wet forecast. As the Low center moves over
land this evening...models do suggest some instability which
might...emphasis on might...lead to some isolated thunder. Have to
be frank that LI values are not terribly thrilling in this
regard...right around -1...and the seemingly narrow window for this
instability appears to be another strike against. Still...the
scenario seems somewhat similar to system that moved through the
area last Saturday...and thunder was present then...so...seems like
running with inherited forecast that included isolated thunder may be
the best course of action.

Once that risk wraps up during the overnight hours...it still looks
wet for Friday as wrap around moisture from the eastbound Low
lingers over the area...resulting in more showers. Upper level
ridging will bring things to an end by Friday night...leading to
clearing skies...drier conditions and warmer temperatures for
Saturday.

Minimal changes to inherited forecast. Did take out thunderstorms
for the afternoon today and relegated them to the
evening...coinciding better with the timing of the low and best
chances for instability. Otherwise...much of the near term remains
in place and mostly unchanged.  SMR

.LONG TERM...The aforementioned ridging looks to remain in place
Saturday...for the remainder of the weekend...and into at least the
first half of next week. This will allow for temperatures to warm
with low to mid 70s in the interior lowlands on Saturday and into
the upper 70s Sunday and into next week. Upper level heights
associated with this ridge look to continually creep up...but
fortunately onshore flow during the forecast period looks to offset
some of this heating...keeping temps from crossing into the 80s. One
last item of old business...nice to see GFS has opted to join the
remaining models regarding its solution for Sunday. Previous runs
had a shortwave-ish sort of feature with some shower potential over
the Cascades. While it retains the feature...it has dropped the
potential for rain. Have altered the forecast
accordingly...resulting in a solidly dry forecast from Saturday to
the end of the forecast period.  SMR

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front will move onshore this morning. An upper
low offshore will approach from the west today and move over
Western Washington tonight. Southwest flow aloft will ease today
and become variable tonight. The air mass is moist and unstable
and will become unstable later today.

KSEA...Low clouds today and tonight. There might be some
improvement late this afternoon or early evening behind the front
but then low clouds should fill back in tonight. There is a small
threat of a thunderstorm this afternoon and early evening but this
is too low to mention in the TAF. South wind increasing to 6-12
knots today. Schneider

&&

.MARINE...A front will push onshore this morning with low end
small craft advisory winds for most waters. A typical summer-
time onshore flow pattern will prevail Friday through Monday with
high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Expect small
craft advisory west winds for the Central and Eastern Strait each
evening in this pattern. Schneider

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT
     tonight for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters
     Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday
     for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight PDT tonight for
     Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230928
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return today and linger into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday will
be particulary cool and showery over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. Warm and dry conditions will develop over
the weekend and continue into next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday night...A closed low just west of Vancouver Island
this morning will drop southeast moving into western Washington
this evening. The low then tracks over Eastern WA and N Idaho on
Friday for a cool and unsettled day. The low pulls away Friday
night resulting in diminishing showers.

Today: A wave rotating around the low will track across Central
and Northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this morning.
Due to a dry sub-cloud layer in most places, showers reaching the
ground will be isolated in nature. Exception is the Cascades and
mountains near the Canadian border where a bit stronger lift will
generate scattered showers. This wave exits by afternoon but
afternoon heating will destabilize the atmosphere with the best
afternoon instability in the North WA Cascades and northern
mountains near the Canadian border where scattered showers this
morning will help raise surface dew points. Uncapped CAPE of
400-800 J/KG will generate scattered thunderstorms with model
soundings showing gusty winds being the main threat.

Tonight: These storms will die down after sunset but with the
closed low moving into Central Washington overnight bands of
showers are likely to continue overnight in the Cascades, Okanogan
Valley, and Okanogan Highlands. Further east a band of elevated
instability ahead of the low tracks across the Lewiston area into
the Central Panhandle Mountains. Models show a band of showers
developing in this area overnight with increasing rain by Friday
morning with the potential for between 0.10-0.40 inches of rain.

Friday: As the closed low continued its eastward trek into Eastern
WA Friday morning the band of rain over the Idaho Panhandle moves
out by afternoon. A band of showers over the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands early Friday morning begins to sag south into the Upper
Basin on the back side of the low. Then as the low moves into
western Montana Friday afternoon these showers continue to expand
south and east to include most of the eastern third of Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle. In addition scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the afternoon from the Okanogan Highlands
and NE WA Mountains southeast through the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene
area and Palouse where models show an axis of best instability
with uncapped CAPE of 400-900 J/KG. Strong downslope westerly
winds off the Cascades should result in a dry afternoon for the
Wenatchee area and western Columbia Basin. Cold air advection with
this system on Friday combined with a moderate pressure gradient
will result in breezy to locally windy conditions around the
Wenatchee area, Columbia Basin, West Plains, and Palouse. JW

Saturday: Pleasant weather is expected to return to the Inland
Northwest on Saturday, just in time for the weekend. A flat high
pressure ridge will develop over Washington and north Idaho
Saturday leading to relatively light winds and partly cloudy
skies. A chilly morning Saturday will transition into a mild
afternoon with afternoon highs in the 70s and lower 80s (very
close to average).

Sunday through Tuesday: Next week will likely be warmer than
normal. The hot high pressure ridge that has baked the
Southwestern states is forecast to creep northward Sunday and
Monday. It will feel like summer with high temperatures in the 80s
and low 90s. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models prog a weak
shortwave passage Monday night into Tuesday, but it is hard to get
too excited about precipitation chances. At this time, the models
produce only enough instability for widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms over the high terrain of the north Cascades
and north Idaho Panhandle. /GKoch

Wednesday and Thursday: Typical summer conditions continue as the
upper ridge builds in over the western US. Above average
temperatures will continue to be on the gradual increase through
mid-week as the low level thermal ridge remains, keeping highs in
the lower 90s and upper 80s. Winds will remain light through the
period with only slight shower chances over the northern mountains
late Wednesday associated with a weak shortwave aloft. /williams


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and
begins to track inland late Thursday. A weaker wave tracking ahead
of the main low will bring an incr in mid and high level clouds
through morning and chance for very light showers. This moves out
in the morning then aftn heating promotes isolated aftn t-storms
mainly north of Hwy 2. The offshore low ejects inland tomorrow
night with a line of showers expected to setup over Idaho
Panhandle and SE WA after 06z. Winds incr aft 15z with some gusts
near 25 mph through the afternoon. Wenatchee`s strongest winds
look to hold off until aft 00z. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  51  62  48  73  52 /  20  20  70  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  74  50  61  48  72  50 /  20  30  80  50   0   0
Pullman        73  48  62  45  72  47 /  10  60  60  20   0   0
Lewiston       82  53  71  50  80  55 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Colville       75  49  65  47  76  48 /  30  20  70  30  10   0
Sandpoint      71  50  59  46  69  46 /  20  20  70  50  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  55  44  68  46 /  10  60  90  60  10   0
Moses Lake     80  52  73  49  80  54 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      77  55  71  53  81  57 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Omak           77  52  71  49  79  53 /  40  40  50  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230928
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return today and linger into
Friday with the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday will
be particulary cool and showery over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. Warm and dry conditions will develop over
the weekend and continue into next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday night...A closed low just west of Vancouver Island
this morning will drop southeast moving into western Washington
this evening. The low then tracks over Eastern WA and N Idaho on
Friday for a cool and unsettled day. The low pulls away Friday
night resulting in diminishing showers.

Today: A wave rotating around the low will track across Central
and Northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this morning.
Due to a dry sub-cloud layer in most places, showers reaching the
ground will be isolated in nature. Exception is the Cascades and
mountains near the Canadian border where a bit stronger lift will
generate scattered showers. This wave exits by afternoon but
afternoon heating will destabilize the atmosphere with the best
afternoon instability in the North WA Cascades and northern
mountains near the Canadian border where scattered showers this
morning will help raise surface dew points. Uncapped CAPE of
400-800 J/KG will generate scattered thunderstorms with model
soundings showing gusty winds being the main threat.

Tonight: These storms will die down after sunset but with the
closed low moving into Central Washington overnight bands of
showers are likely to continue overnight in the Cascades, Okanogan
Valley, and Okanogan Highlands. Further east a band of elevated
instability ahead of the low tracks across the Lewiston area into
the Central Panhandle Mountains. Models show a band of showers
developing in this area overnight with increasing rain by Friday
morning with the potential for between 0.10-0.40 inches of rain.

Friday: As the closed low continued its eastward trek into Eastern
WA Friday morning the band of rain over the Idaho Panhandle moves
out by afternoon. A band of showers over the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands early Friday morning begins to sag south into the Upper
Basin on the back side of the low. Then as the low moves into
western Montana Friday afternoon these showers continue to expand
south and east to include most of the eastern third of Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle. In addition scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the afternoon from the Okanogan Highlands
and NE WA Mountains southeast through the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene
area and Palouse where models show an axis of best instability
with uncapped CAPE of 400-900 J/KG. Strong downslope westerly
winds off the Cascades should result in a dry afternoon for the
Wenatchee area and western Columbia Basin. Cold air advection with
this system on Friday combined with a moderate pressure gradient
will result in breezy to locally windy conditions around the
Wenatchee area, Columbia Basin, West Plains, and Palouse. JW

Saturday: Pleasant weather is expected to return to the Inland
Northwest on Saturday, just in time for the weekend. A flat high
pressure ridge will develop over Washington and north Idaho
Saturday leading to relatively light winds and partly cloudy
skies. A chilly morning Saturday will transition into a mild
afternoon with afternoon highs in the 70s and lower 80s (very
close to average).

Sunday through Tuesday: Next week will likely be warmer than
normal. The hot high pressure ridge that has baked the
Southwestern states is forecast to creep northward Sunday and
Monday. It will feel like summer with high temperatures in the 80s
and low 90s. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models prog a weak
shortwave passage Monday night into Tuesday, but it is hard to get
too excited about precipitation chances. At this time, the models
produce only enough instability for widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms over the high terrain of the north Cascades
and north Idaho Panhandle. /GKoch

Wednesday and Thursday: Typical summer conditions continue as the
upper ridge builds in over the western US. Above average
temperatures will continue to be on the gradual increase through
mid-week as the low level thermal ridge remains, keeping highs in
the lower 90s and upper 80s. Winds will remain light through the
period with only slight shower chances over the northern mountains
late Wednesday associated with a weak shortwave aloft. /williams


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and
begins to track inland late Thursday. A weaker wave tracking ahead
of the main low will bring an incr in mid and high level clouds
through morning and chance for very light showers. This moves out
in the morning then aftn heating promotes isolated aftn t-storms
mainly north of Hwy 2. The offshore low ejects inland tomorrow
night with a line of showers expected to setup over Idaho
Panhandle and SE WA after 06z. Winds incr aft 15z with some gusts
near 25 mph through the afternoon. Wenatchee`s strongest winds
look to hold off until aft 00z. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  51  62  48  73  52 /  20  20  70  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  74  50  61  48  72  50 /  20  30  80  50   0   0
Pullman        73  48  62  45  72  47 /  10  60  60  20   0   0
Lewiston       82  53  71  50  80  55 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Colville       75  49  65  47  76  48 /  30  20  70  30  10   0
Sandpoint      71  50  59  46  69  46 /  20  20  70  50  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  55  44  68  46 /  10  60  90  60  10   0
Moses Lake     80  52  73  49  80  54 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      77  55  71  53  81  57 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Omak           77  52  71  49  79  53 /  40  40  50  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230538
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1038 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return tomorrow and Friday with
the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday has the
potential to be particularly breezy and cooler with scattered
thunderstorms. Warm and dry conditions will develop over the
weekend and continue into next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small update for this evening mainly to adjust temperatures based
on current observations. Overall, it will be a mild evening as
clouds continue to increase ahead of a deep low spinning toward
the WA Coast.

Also made some changes to tonight to add mention of isolated
showers vs sprinkles but left QPF mainly as is which is little to
nothing for much of the Basin and just a few hundreths in the
north mountains and Cascades. Satellite/radar reveal a shortwave
pivoting within the main low crossing into Wrn WA and the lift
from this feature are evident via showers along and west of the
Cascade Crest. As this feature crosses into Central WA overnight,
I anticipate isolated to scattered light showers will spring to
life across much of Central and Northern WA and the threat
decreasing into southeastern portions of the state and much of the
Idaho Panhandle. The only pocket of midlevel instability per
700-500mb will be marginal at best and located in the Northern
Cascades. At this time, the threat still appears to low to add
nocturnal thunder.

Looking ahead, Thursday will feature showers and storms across the
northern mountains which was handled well from the previous
forecast. May need to extend a few showers or storms in the far
northern reaches of the Basin...but it will depend how quick the
winds pick up and dry out the boundary layer. Main threats across
the northern mountains where instability will be greatest will be
brief downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. This event carries
low probabilities for burn scar flooding.

Showers are likely tomorrow night across the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of Ern WA as the offshore low ejects and strong
lift traverses the region. May have some thunder associated with
it but temperature profiles supporting charge separation properties
are on the fence so will let the next 1-2 shifts make the final
call. The core of the low will pass over Ern WA/N ID Friday
promoting another afternoon and evening of showers and storms.
Gusty winds and Moderate to heavy downpours will be the main
concern. I have seen a slight increase in evening models with the
potential instability along the WA/ID border. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and
begins to track inland late Thursday. A weaker wave tracking ahead
of the main low will bring an incr in mid and high level clouds
through morning and chance for very light showers. This moves out
in the morning then aftn heating promotes isolated aftn t-storms
mainly north of Hwy 2. The offshore low ejects inland tomorrow
night with a line of showers expected to setup over Idaho
Panhandle and SE WA after 06z. Winds incr aft 15z with some gusts
near 25 mph through the afternoon. Wenatchee`s strongest winds
look to hold off until aft 00z. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  74  51  64  47  73 /  10  10  10  60  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  74  51  62  48  71 /  10  10  30  80  40  10
Pullman        50  73  49  62  46  73 /  10  10  70  60  20  10
Lewiston       59  82  55  70  51  80 /  10  10  60  50  20  10
Colville       52  75  49  64  45  76 /  10  40  20  70  40  10
Sandpoint      48  71  48  59  46  69 /  10  20  20  80  60  10
Kellogg        50  71  47  56  44  67 /  10  10  70  90  60  10
Moses Lake     62  80  52  74  50  81 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Wenatchee      60  77  55  71  52  81 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Omak           59  77  52  71  48  80 /  10  40  20  50  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230538
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1038 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return tomorrow and Friday with
the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday has the
potential to be particularly breezy and cooler with scattered
thunderstorms. Warm and dry conditions will develop over the
weekend and continue into next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small update for this evening mainly to adjust temperatures based
on current observations. Overall, it will be a mild evening as
clouds continue to increase ahead of a deep low spinning toward
the WA Coast.

Also made some changes to tonight to add mention of isolated
showers vs sprinkles but left QPF mainly as is which is little to
nothing for much of the Basin and just a few hundreths in the
north mountains and Cascades. Satellite/radar reveal a shortwave
pivoting within the main low crossing into Wrn WA and the lift
from this feature are evident via showers along and west of the
Cascade Crest. As this feature crosses into Central WA overnight,
I anticipate isolated to scattered light showers will spring to
life across much of Central and Northern WA and the threat
decreasing into southeastern portions of the state and much of the
Idaho Panhandle. The only pocket of midlevel instability per
700-500mb will be marginal at best and located in the Northern
Cascades. At this time, the threat still appears to low to add
nocturnal thunder.

Looking ahead, Thursday will feature showers and storms across the
northern mountains which was handled well from the previous
forecast. May need to extend a few showers or storms in the far
northern reaches of the Basin...but it will depend how quick the
winds pick up and dry out the boundary layer. Main threats across
the northern mountains where instability will be greatest will be
brief downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. This event carries
low probabilities for burn scar flooding.

Showers are likely tomorrow night across the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of Ern WA as the offshore low ejects and strong
lift traverses the region. May have some thunder associated with
it but temperature profiles supporting charge separation properties
are on the fence so will let the next 1-2 shifts make the final
call. The core of the low will pass over Ern WA/N ID Friday
promoting another afternoon and evening of showers and storms.
Gusty winds and Moderate to heavy downpours will be the main
concern. I have seen a slight increase in evening models with the
potential instability along the WA/ID border. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and
begins to track inland late Thursday. A weaker wave tracking ahead
of the main low will bring an incr in mid and high level clouds
through morning and chance for very light showers. This moves out
in the morning then aftn heating promotes isolated aftn t-storms
mainly north of Hwy 2. The offshore low ejects inland tomorrow
night with a line of showers expected to setup over Idaho
Panhandle and SE WA after 06z. Winds incr aft 15z with some gusts
near 25 mph through the afternoon. Wenatchee`s strongest winds
look to hold off until aft 00z. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  74  51  64  47  73 /  10  10  10  60  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  74  51  62  48  71 /  10  10  30  80  40  10
Pullman        50  73  49  62  46  73 /  10  10  70  60  20  10
Lewiston       59  82  55  70  51  80 /  10  10  60  50  20  10
Colville       52  75  49  64  45  76 /  10  40  20  70  40  10
Sandpoint      48  71  48  59  46  69 /  10  20  20  80  60  10
Kellogg        50  71  47  56  44  67 /  10  10  70  90  60  10
Moses Lake     62  80  52  74  50  81 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Wenatchee      60  77  55  71  52  81 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Omak           59  77  52  71  48  80 /  10  40  20  50  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230538
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1038 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return tomorrow and Friday with
the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday has the
potential to be particularly breezy and cooler with scattered
thunderstorms. Warm and dry conditions will develop over the
weekend and continue into next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small update for this evening mainly to adjust temperatures based
on current observations. Overall, it will be a mild evening as
clouds continue to increase ahead of a deep low spinning toward
the WA Coast.

Also made some changes to tonight to add mention of isolated
showers vs sprinkles but left QPF mainly as is which is little to
nothing for much of the Basin and just a few hundreths in the
north mountains and Cascades. Satellite/radar reveal a shortwave
pivoting within the main low crossing into Wrn WA and the lift
from this feature are evident via showers along and west of the
Cascade Crest. As this feature crosses into Central WA overnight,
I anticipate isolated to scattered light showers will spring to
life across much of Central and Northern WA and the threat
decreasing into southeastern portions of the state and much of the
Idaho Panhandle. The only pocket of midlevel instability per
700-500mb will be marginal at best and located in the Northern
Cascades. At this time, the threat still appears to low to add
nocturnal thunder.

Looking ahead, Thursday will feature showers and storms across the
northern mountains which was handled well from the previous
forecast. May need to extend a few showers or storms in the far
northern reaches of the Basin...but it will depend how quick the
winds pick up and dry out the boundary layer. Main threats across
the northern mountains where instability will be greatest will be
brief downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. This event carries
low probabilities for burn scar flooding.

Showers are likely tomorrow night across the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of Ern WA as the offshore low ejects and strong
lift traverses the region. May have some thunder associated with
it but temperature profiles supporting charge separation properties
are on the fence so will let the next 1-2 shifts make the final
call. The core of the low will pass over Ern WA/N ID Friday
promoting another afternoon and evening of showers and storms.
Gusty winds and Moderate to heavy downpours will be the main
concern. I have seen a slight increase in evening models with the
potential instability along the WA/ID border. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and
begins to track inland late Thursday. A weaker wave tracking ahead
of the main low will bring an incr in mid and high level clouds
through morning and chance for very light showers. This moves out
in the morning then aftn heating promotes isolated aftn t-storms
mainly north of Hwy 2. The offshore low ejects inland tomorrow
night with a line of showers expected to setup over Idaho
Panhandle and SE WA after 06z. Winds incr aft 15z with some gusts
near 25 mph through the afternoon. Wenatchee`s strongest winds
look to hold off until aft 00z. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  74  51  64  47  73 /  10  10  10  60  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  74  51  62  48  71 /  10  10  30  80  40  10
Pullman        50  73  49  62  46  73 /  10  10  70  60  20  10
Lewiston       59  82  55  70  51  80 /  10  10  60  50  20  10
Colville       52  75  49  64  45  76 /  10  40  20  70  40  10
Sandpoint      48  71  48  59  46  69 /  10  20  20  80  60  10
Kellogg        50  71  47  56  44  67 /  10  10  70  90  60  10
Moses Lake     62  80  52  74  50  81 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Wenatchee      60  77  55  71  52  81 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Omak           59  77  52  71  48  80 /  10  40  20  50  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230538
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1038 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return tomorrow and Friday with
the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday has the
potential to be particularly breezy and cooler with scattered
thunderstorms. Warm and dry conditions will develop over the
weekend and continue into next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small update for this evening mainly to adjust temperatures based
on current observations. Overall, it will be a mild evening as
clouds continue to increase ahead of a deep low spinning toward
the WA Coast.

Also made some changes to tonight to add mention of isolated
showers vs sprinkles but left QPF mainly as is which is little to
nothing for much of the Basin and just a few hundreths in the
north mountains and Cascades. Satellite/radar reveal a shortwave
pivoting within the main low crossing into Wrn WA and the lift
from this feature are evident via showers along and west of the
Cascade Crest. As this feature crosses into Central WA overnight,
I anticipate isolated to scattered light showers will spring to
life across much of Central and Northern WA and the threat
decreasing into southeastern portions of the state and much of the
Idaho Panhandle. The only pocket of midlevel instability per
700-500mb will be marginal at best and located in the Northern
Cascades. At this time, the threat still appears to low to add
nocturnal thunder.

Looking ahead, Thursday will feature showers and storms across the
northern mountains which was handled well from the previous
forecast. May need to extend a few showers or storms in the far
northern reaches of the Basin...but it will depend how quick the
winds pick up and dry out the boundary layer. Main threats across
the northern mountains where instability will be greatest will be
brief downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. This event carries
low probabilities for burn scar flooding.

Showers are likely tomorrow night across the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of Ern WA as the offshore low ejects and strong
lift traverses the region. May have some thunder associated with
it but temperature profiles supporting charge separation properties
are on the fence so will let the next 1-2 shifts make the final
call. The core of the low will pass over Ern WA/N ID Friday
promoting another afternoon and evening of showers and storms.
Gusty winds and Moderate to heavy downpours will be the main
concern. I have seen a slight increase in evening models with the
potential instability along the WA/ID border. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and
begins to track inland late Thursday. A weaker wave tracking ahead
of the main low will bring an incr in mid and high level clouds
through morning and chance for very light showers. This moves out
in the morning then aftn heating promotes isolated aftn t-storms
mainly north of Hwy 2. The offshore low ejects inland tomorrow
night with a line of showers expected to setup over Idaho
Panhandle and SE WA after 06z. Winds incr aft 15z with some gusts
near 25 mph through the afternoon. Wenatchee`s strongest winds
look to hold off until aft 00z. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  74  51  64  47  73 /  10  10  10  60  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  74  51  62  48  71 /  10  10  30  80  40  10
Pullman        50  73  49  62  46  73 /  10  10  70  60  20  10
Lewiston       59  82  55  70  51  80 /  10  10  60  50  20  10
Colville       52  75  49  64  45  76 /  10  40  20  70  40  10
Sandpoint      48  71  48  59  46  69 /  10  20  20  80  60  10
Kellogg        50  71  47  56  44  67 /  10  10  70  90  60  10
Moses Lake     62  80  52  74  50  81 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Wenatchee      60  77  55  71  52  81 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Omak           59  77  52  71  48  80 /  10  40  20  50  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1003 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and showery weather will return tomorrow and Friday with
the arrival of a deep low pressure system. Friday has the
potential to be particularly breezy and cooler with scattered
thunderstorms. Warm and dry conditions will develop over the
weekend and continue into next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small update for this evening mainly to adjust temperatures based
on current observations. Overall, it will be a mild evening as
clouds continue to increase ahead of a deep low spinning toward
the WA Coast.

Also made some changes to tonight to add mention of isolated
showers vs sprinkles but left QPF mainly as is which is little to
nothing for much of the Basin and just a few hundreths in the
north mountains and Cascades. Satellite/radar reveal a shortwave
pivoting within the main low crossing into Wrn WA and the lift
from this feature are evident via showers along and west of the
Cascade Crest. As this feature crosses into Central WA overnight,
I anticipate isolated to scattered light showers will spring to
life across much of Central and Northern WA and the threat
decreasing into southeastern portions of the state and much of the
Idaho Panhandle. The only pocket of midlevel instability per
700-500mb will be marginal at best and located in the Northern
Cascades. At this time, the threat still appears to low to add
nocturnal thunder.

Looking ahead, Thursday will feature showers and storms across the
northern mountains which was handled well from the previous
forecast. May need to extend a few storms in the far northern
reaches of the Basin...but it will depend how quick the winds pick
up and dry out the boundary layer. Main threats will be brief
downpours, gusty winds, and small hail and carries low
probabilities for burn scar flooding.

Showers are likely tomorrow night across much of Ern WA and N ID
as strong lift traverses the region. May have some thunder
associated with it but temperature (ie charge separation)
properties are on the fence so will let the next 1-2 shifts make
the final call. Friday will feature another afternoon and evening
of showers and storms but shifting into Ern WA and N ID. Gusty
winds and Moderate to heavy downpours will be the main concern.
evening models have increased the potential instability just
slightly especially along the WA/ID border. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A deep low pressure system approaches tonight and begins
to track inland Thursday. Mid and high level clouds will increase
with light showers near the Cascades tonight then spreading east
into the northern mountains Thursday. isolated aftn t-storms will
be possible from Omak to Colville and points north. The main terminals
will largely miss out the precipitation except some spotty sprinkles
between 08-15Z. Winds incr aft 15z with some gusts near 25 mph
through the afternoon. Precipitation chances will incr further
Thur night with the potential for nocturnal t-storms along the
WA/ID border. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  74  51  64  47  73 /  10  10  10  60  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  74  51  62  48  71 /  10  10  30  80  40  10
Pullman        50  73  49  62  46  73 /  10  10  70  60  20  10
Lewiston       59  82  55  70  51  80 /  10  10  60  50  20  10
Colville       52  75  49  64  45  76 /  10  40  20  70  40  10
Sandpoint      48  71  48  59  46  69 /  10  20  20  80  60  10
Kellogg        50  71  47  56  44  67 /  10  10  70  90  60  10
Moses Lake     62  80  52  74  50  81 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Wenatchee      60  77  55  71  52  81 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Omak           59  77  52  71  48  80 /  10  40  20  50  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230348
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 207
846 PM PDT Wed Jun 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low and associated surface front is moving
into the area tonight, and will move across Southwest Washington and
Northwest Oregon on Thursday. This will lead to a period of cooler
temperatures and showers Thursday, with gradual improvement on
Friday. High pressure builds into the area Friday night and Saturday,
initiating a period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures that
should extend into the middle of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)....Water vapor imagery shows
the upper low currently around 51N/131W. Warm front with this system
has starting to bring rain onto the Washington Coast to our north.
Satellite imagery shows fairly significant precipitable water values
for this time of year, around 1-1.3 inches. With that in mind, we
have already seen rain amounts of around 0.25 inches up along the
Olympic Coast. Think amounts will be less down along the South
Washington and North Oregon Coast, but did bump up precipitation
amounts a bit. Models are in fairly good agreement with the timing of
this upper low as it moves onshore Thursday.  Will see showers
lingering into Thursday morning behind the front, but showers will
start to increase in the afternoon and evening due to cool air
advection aloft as the base of the upper low moves right over the
northern half of our area. Added a slight chance for thunderstorms
inland around Portland northward for Thursday evening from 00Z-06Z,
because moderate instability mainly in the evening could generate an
isolated thunderstorm or two. Otherwise, no changes to the rest of
the forecast. Models all move the upper trough well into the Northern
Rockies by Friday afternoon. Therefore, models in good agreement with
shortwave ridge improving conditions through the day Friday, with
most of our area becoming dry with decreasing clouds Friday
afternoon. Typical PacNW summer looks to return on Saturday. -McCoy

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) No changes. Previous
discussion follows...West/southwest flow aloft sets up for the
extended period, with a very weak/dry shortwave passage on Sunday.
This could deepen the marine layer along the central and north coast,
and push a few more morning clouds inland, but will otherwise have a
negligible effect on sensible weather. Appears the very seasonal
weather pattern developing this weekend will persist well into next
week, with low amplitude ridging aloft, light onshore flow at the
surface, patchy morning clouds but otherwise mostly clear/sunny
inland, and typical late June temperatures. Bright

&&

.AVIATION...A frontal system will approach the coast overnight and
move onshore Thursday morning. An associated rain band apparent on
the latest radar imagery nearing the S Washington and N Oregon
coast. Expect precipitation to begin at KAST before 06Z, then
spread further down the coast overnight. MVFR conditions to develop
at the coast overnight. Light rain will also spread into the
interior overnight, but think conditions will remain predominantly
VFR until Thu morning. MVFR cigs should eventually push into the
inland TAF sites sometime between 12Z and 18Z Thu as the cold
front pushes onshore. Showers will continue Thu afternoon and
evening behind the cold front, with the potential for a few
thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Think that
conditions will be a mix of VFR and MVFR during this time.

Winds to turn southerly late tonight and become gusty along the
immediate coast between 09Z to 15Z Thu.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Light rain to spread in overnight, but
conditions will likely remain VFR into Thu morning. Then MVFR
conditions should develop sometime between 12Z and 18Z Thu as a
cold front moves onshore. Showers continue Thu afternoon and
evening behind the cold front with a mixture of MVFR and VFR.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thu evening. Pyle

&&

.MARINE...Winds are turning to the south this evening ahead of an
approaching front, which is looking a bit stronger than previous
model runs had been suggesting. The 00Z NAM and the latest runs of
the RAP model suggest that wind gusts to 25 kt will affect most of
the waters after midnight through early Thu morning. Decided to
expand the small craft advisory to include the outer waters. There
is also the hint of a coastal jet on the models between 09Z and
15Z Thu. Winds will subside somewhat and becoming northwesterly
later Thu morning as the cold front pushes onshore. Winds remain
westerly at less than 20 kt later Thu into Fri. High pressure
will then rebuild Friday afternoon and remain through the weekend
and at least the first half of next week. With thermal low pres
developing over N Calif, this will bring a return to northerly
winds over the waters. They will be gusty at times, particularly
during the afternoon and evening hours. Small craft advisories
will likely be needed.

Seas will remain small and wind wave dominated through the
period. Some higher seas around 6 to 7 feet will develop this
weekend as persistent north flow leads to fresh short period
swell. Pyle/mh

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds from midnight tonight to 8 AM
     PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to
     Florence OR out 60 nm.

&&

$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 230315
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
815 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak front will bring increasing showers to Western
Washington tonight. The associated upper level trough will approach
Thursday, moving inland Thursday night and Friday producing a
generally cool and wet period. An upper ridge will build over the
weekend and early next week giving drier and warmer conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM...IR satellite imagery shows a weak low off the
south-central Washington coast this evening with a cold front
southwest through the Oregon offshore waters. It appears that
previous model solutions showed the low a bit to the north and
west of the current position and models appear weaker that what is
seen on the satellite imagery. The low will curl northeast moving
onshore around Cape Flattery during the early morning hours before
moving into Vancouver Island and weakening.

Rain has already moved onto the coast this evening and will push
into the interior around midnight. The previous forecast was
updated to increase pops on the Olympic Peninsula where it is
already raining, and to change the nature of the precipitation in
the forecast from convective to stratiform overnight. Rainfall
amounts will generally average about 0.5 inches on the coast and a
tenth to quarter of an inch inland, though the latest HRRR
solution is now showing higher amounts possible in the rain
forest areas of the western Olympic Peninsula.

Behind the front the precipitation will be become showery and it
will be a cool and showery day with good onshore flow. A 555 DAM
500-mb low that is currently near 50N/132W will move southeast and
the air mass over the interior of western portions of Washington
will destabilize as the upper levels cool and temperatures at the
surface rise into the lower to mid 60s. Diffluent southerly flow
combined with instability should be sufficient between 21Z and
06Z to trigger isolated thunderstorms from about Hoquiam to
Everett south and eastward. Mesoscale models also hint at the
formation of a Puget Sound convergence zone during the late
afternoon and evening hours.

The upper low will be east of the Cascades Friday but wrap around
moisture and cool onshore flow will continue. A lingering
convergence zone could still produce some local shower enhancement
in the favored north Seattle-Everett corridor, and especially over
the mountains and north. Highs again will top out in the mid 60s.

Upper level low pressure shifts east of the region and high pressure
builds aloft Friday night. Any residual shower activity along the
mountains will end by midnight. Residual clouds my linger into
Saturday morning, then partial clearing in the afternoon. A system
aloft tracking into B.C. Saturday afternoon will miss the area but
will keep heights suppressed near 5750m. Low level northwesterly
onshore flow will also hinder high temperatures near the water. But
with partial sunshine, highs should still warm several degrees into
the low to mid 70s, except 60s coast and strait. Albrecht/Mercer

.LONG TERM...From the previous long term discussion: Global
models generally agree on a pattern change toward ridging aloft
giving dry weather and warming temperatures. Systems will brush by
to the north of Washington next week but no rain is expected. The
main affect will be periods lower heights and a bit more onshore
flow. It is difficult to pin down exactly which days will see
changes, but highs should range from the 70s to the lower 80s.
Skies should be mostly clear Sunday through Thursday, though
marine stratus is possible along the coast at times which may seep
into the Strait or Southwest Interior during the mornings. Most
models hint at Tuesday or Wednesday as being the warmest days with
low 70s possible at the coast and low 80s inland around Puget
Sound. The average high this time of year is in the low 70s for
Sea-Tac. Mercer

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front will move onshore later tonight and
Thursday morning. An upper low offshore will move to just off the
coast Thursday with southwest flow aloft easing. The air mass
will become increasingly moist from the west as the front move
onshore tonight and Thursday morning. Stable air over the area
tonight will become unstable on Thursday.

KSEA...Ceilings will lower overnight as a front nears. Low clouds
will be prevalent Thursday. There is a small chance of thunder
Thursday afternoon but this is too low to mention in the TAF. West
or northwest wind 4-8 knots this evening will switch to south
later tonight and increase to 6-12 knots Thursday. Schneider

&&

.MARINE...A front will push onshore later tonight and Thursday
morning with low end small craft advisory winds for some waters.
A typical summer-time onshore flow pattern will prevail after
that into early next week with high pressure offshore and lower
pressure inland. Expect small craft advisory west winds for the
Central and Eastern Strait each evening in this pattern. Schneider

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




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