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000
FXUS66 KOTX 271731
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and linger through
Tuesday for a couple of days of nice weather. Between Tuesday
night and Thursday a weather disturbance will bring more seasonal
temperatures, breezy conditions and a threat of showers, followed
by a general drying trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...No changes expected to the zone forecast and State
Forecast Product this morning. An upper level ridge is
aggressively building over the region today. Some high and mid
level clouds are cresting over the top of this ridge bringing
filtered sunshine to the Cascades and northern tier zones. It is
expected that this cloud cover will slowly thin out through the
rest of the day with continued clear skies elsewhere. Temperatures
today will be noticeably warmer than the past few days...probably
returning to seasonal normal before rising above normal tomorrow.
/Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure building over the aviation
area will allow VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours.
/MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  45  75  45  62  39 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  66  40  75  41  62  36 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Pullman        67  41  73  41  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  30  10
Lewiston       71  45  82  48  67  42 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       70  41  77  46  66  39 /   0   0  10  60  20  20
Sandpoint      65  36  74  40  61  35 /   0   0  10  30  40  20
Kellogg        64  39  72  41  59  36 /   0   0   0  30  40  20
Moses Lake     72  44  78  41  67  39 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Wenatchee      74  50  74  44  67  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           72  43  76  41  67  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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000
FXUS66 KSEW 271610
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...GIVING WAY TO WARM AND SUNNIER
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR A RETURN TO
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PARTLY
SUNNY DAYS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WITH ITS WARM FRONT BRUSHING
WESTERN WASHINGTON AS IT MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MOIST AND
MILD AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES...SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 9000 FT...WITH 8 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON RISING TO AROUND 5730 METERS.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST
WELL OUTSIDE OF 130W. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...AND
THE WARM AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BOMB TONIGHT...WINDING UP AROUND
982 MB NEAR HAIDA GWAII LATE TONIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POST-FRONTAL
UPPER TROUGH AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL
-- AROUND 0.25 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 3500 FT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CLIPPING SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTION OVER WESTERN WA.
OVERALL THE PATTERN IS LOOKING PRETTY QUIET. THE SURFACE FLOW IS
ONSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS WELL
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED SITTING ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
MIDDAY. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS IN THE INTERIOR NORTH OF SEATTLE. SOME DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN IN THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM VICTORIA BC EASTWARD TO THE SAN
JUANS AND NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE BELLINGHAM AREA ARE LOCALLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RAPIDLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH 18Z-21Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS 21Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 05Z THIS
EVENING WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD AND SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SURGE OF
STRATUS WITH CIGS 010-015 WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
05Z-08Z THEN PUSH INLAND AFTER 08Z TO EXTEND ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON BY 10Z. THIS SURGE WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST OF AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ABOUT 15Z TUE AND THROUGH
THE INTERIOR ABOUT 18Z. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING WILL WELL NORTH
BY 18Z. EXPECT SCT025 BKN050 TO IMPROVE TO SCT100 BY 22Z. CIGS
AROUND 010 WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE TERMINAL 08Z-10Z TONIGHT AND
SOME -SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND FROPA 15Z-18Z TUE. SOUTH WINDS
45KT INCREASING AT FL050 AFTER 06Z TUE. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WIND
4-7 KT WILL TURN NW BY 21Z...VEER TO NE TO E 03Z-07Z THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW 8-12 KT AFTER 10Z. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS
WILL LIFT NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WILL EASE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 46N 137W
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE MORNING THEN THROUGH
THE INLAND WATERS MIDDAY TUE. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SHIFT INTO THE INLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE FRONT MIDDAY TUE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE STRAIT...WINDS WILL
RELAX BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THE TUE COLD FRONT...BUT ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THIS FRONT WED NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF POINT GRENVILLE
      THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL COASTAL WATERS STARTING MIDNIGHT
      TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...ADMIRALTY INLET...
      AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL STARTING 3 AM PDT TUE MORNING.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 271610
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...GIVING WAY TO WARM AND SUNNIER
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR A RETURN TO
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PARTLY
SUNNY DAYS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WITH ITS WARM FRONT BRUSHING
WESTERN WASHINGTON AS IT MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MOIST AND
MILD AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES...SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 9000 FT...WITH 8 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON RISING TO AROUND 5730 METERS.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST
WELL OUTSIDE OF 130W. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...AND
THE WARM AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BOMB TONIGHT...WINDING UP AROUND
982 MB NEAR HAIDA GWAII LATE TONIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POST-FRONTAL
UPPER TROUGH AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL
-- AROUND 0.25 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 3500 FT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CLIPPING SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTION OVER WESTERN WA.
OVERALL THE PATTERN IS LOOKING PRETTY QUIET. THE SURFACE FLOW IS
ONSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS WELL
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED SITTING ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
MIDDAY. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS IN THE INTERIOR NORTH OF SEATTLE. SOME DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN IN THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM VICTORIA BC EASTWARD TO THE SAN
JUANS AND NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE BELLINGHAM AREA ARE LOCALLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RAPIDLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH 18Z-21Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS 21Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 05Z THIS
EVENING WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD AND SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SURGE OF
STRATUS WITH CIGS 010-015 WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
05Z-08Z THEN PUSH INLAND AFTER 08Z TO EXTEND ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON BY 10Z. THIS SURGE WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST OF AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ABOUT 15Z TUE AND THROUGH
THE INTERIOR ABOUT 18Z. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING WILL WELL NORTH
BY 18Z. EXPECT SCT025 BKN050 TO IMPROVE TO SCT100 BY 22Z. CIGS
AROUND 010 WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE TERMINAL 08Z-10Z TONIGHT AND
SOME -SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND FROPA 15Z-18Z TUE. SOUTH WINDS
45KT INCREASING AT FL050 AFTER 06Z TUE. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WIND
4-7 KT WILL TURN NW BY 21Z...VEER TO NE TO E 03Z-07Z THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW 8-12 KT AFTER 10Z. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS
WILL LIFT NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WILL EASE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 46N 137W
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE MORNING THEN THROUGH
THE INLAND WATERS MIDDAY TUE. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SHIFT INTO THE INLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE FRONT MIDDAY TUE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE STRAIT...WINDS WILL
RELAX BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE.

A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THE TUE COLD FRONT...BUT ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THIS FRONT WED NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF POINT GRENVILLE
      THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL COASTAL WATERS STARTING MIDNIGHT
      TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...ADMIRALTY INLET...
      AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL STARTING 3 AM PDT TUE MORNING.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




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000
FXUS66 KPQR 271549
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
848 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WILL HAVE A MILD AND SUNNY SPRING DAY TODAY. BUT IT IS
SHORT LIVED AS AREA WILL SEE A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR TUE AND WED. SOMEWHAT UNSURE...BUT SEEMS WILL HAVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR REST OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT HAS LIFT N OF THE
REGION THIS AM. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
MOST OF THESE CLOUDS ARE IN THE COAST RANGE AND NEARBY WEST HALF OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF LATER THIS AM.

OVERALL...MOST AREAS WILL GET INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER
INLAND...AIR MASS IS MILD WITH 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 14
DEG. WITH THIS...SEEMS REASONABLE THAT WILL GET INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT IS ALREADY NEAR 140W AND WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO
INCREASE TONIGHT. WHILE THIS FRONT INVOLVES THE REMNANTS OF A KONA
LOW WHICH WAS LINGERING NEAR HAWAII FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MOST
OF THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE HEADED FOR THE
BC COAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS THE PAC NW
TUE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS...ONLY 0.25-0.50 INCH...LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND
COAST RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT THERMAL SIGNATURE TO THIS COLD
FRONT...WITH 00Z ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS BACK DOWN TO AROUND +4
DEG C ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY TUE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AROUND...MANY LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60
DEGREES TUE.

A FOLLOWING DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA WED. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NEAR 160W. MODELS
SHOW A DECENT COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF
SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THEREFORE SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WED...AND
SNOW LEVELS MAY AGAIN BE DOWN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES. DEPENDING ON
THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ALOFT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET.      WEAGLEROCK

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR FOG IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER NEAR
KPDX. EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF BY 17Z. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A MIXTURE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST AFTER 05Z AND INLAND AFTER 10Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT IFR FOG ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO
BURN OFF BY 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE GORGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL MATERIALIZE. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT LASTING INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN WEAK AND TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUE...LIKELY PUSHING SEAS BACK NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH WED.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
       TUE AM ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271549
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
848 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WILL HAVE A MILD AND SUNNY SPRING DAY TODAY. BUT IT IS
SHORT LIVED AS AREA WILL SEE A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR TUE AND WED. SOMEWHAT UNSURE...BUT SEEMS WILL HAVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR REST OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT HAS LIFT N OF THE
REGION THIS AM. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
MOST OF THESE CLOUDS ARE IN THE COAST RANGE AND NEARBY WEST HALF OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF LATER THIS AM.

OVERALL...MOST AREAS WILL GET INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER
INLAND...AIR MASS IS MILD WITH 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 14
DEG. WITH THIS...SEEMS REASONABLE THAT WILL GET INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT IS ALREADY NEAR 140W AND WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO
INCREASE TONIGHT. WHILE THIS FRONT INVOLVES THE REMNANTS OF A KONA
LOW WHICH WAS LINGERING NEAR HAWAII FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MOST
OF THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE HEADED FOR THE
BC COAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS THE PAC NW
TUE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS...ONLY 0.25-0.50 INCH...LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND
COAST RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT THERMAL SIGNATURE TO THIS COLD
FRONT...WITH 00Z ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS BACK DOWN TO AROUND +4
DEG C ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY TUE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AROUND...MANY LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60
DEGREES TUE.

A FOLLOWING DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA WED. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NEAR 160W. MODELS
SHOW A DECENT COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF
SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THEREFORE SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WED...AND
SNOW LEVELS MAY AGAIN BE DOWN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES. DEPENDING ON
THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ALOFT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET.      WEAGLEROCK

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR FOG IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER NEAR
KPDX. EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF BY 17Z. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A MIXTURE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST AFTER 05Z AND INLAND AFTER 10Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT IFR FOG ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO
BURN OFF BY 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE GORGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL MATERIALIZE. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT LASTING INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN WEAK AND TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUE...LIKELY PUSHING SEAS BACK NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH WED.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
       TUE AM ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 271128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
428 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and linger through
Tuesday for a couple of days of nice weather. Between Tuesday
night and Thursday a weather disturbance will bring more seasonal
temperatures, breezy conditions and a threat of showers, followed
by a general drying trend by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Narrow and slightly positively tilted
ridge of high pressure amplifies into the region allowing for a
continuation of the warming and drying trend with temperatures
peaking on Tuesday. Forecast temperatures are well above normal
Tuesday. A quick look at climo records show that most record high
temperatures for Tuesday are in the 80s and 90s so no sites are
expected to be near record highs, at least at this point in time.
/Pelatti

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will
track through the PAC NW during this time frame. Some minor
timing issues but it looks like the associated cold front will
move across the Cascades late Tuesday evening then track quickly
east and be along the ID/MT border right around mid-day Wednesday.
Model guidance is similar showing a brief increase in moisture
with the frontal passage. This will lead to a very good chance
for showers and breezy/gusty winds with the front. The NAM and to
a lesser extent the GFS models are showing a pretty decent
increase in mid and upper level instability with fropa. Forcing
with the front should be quite adequate to lift parcels into this
unstable layer. I went ahead and pushed the timing of the
thunderstorms to coincide with the front between 06z-18z. While
the atmosphere will remain unstable through sunset Wednesday
evening it looks like surfaced based convection Wednesday
afternoon will not be deep enough to support anything more than
showers. Temperatures will take about a 8-12 degree drop putting
temperatures back near normal. Surface pressure gradients will
increase to 10-12mb with 850mb winds between 20-30kts. These winds
should be able to mix down to the surface with and behind the cold
front. With the front coming through at night winds may not reach
the same velocities if it came through during the day. But still
breezy/gusty winds will be common east of the Cascades overnight
and through the morning hours, before decreasing in the
afternoon.

Thursday through Monday the upper pattern will be zonal (west-east
winds) with what looks like a few weak waves moving through B.C at
times. Breezy winds and showers, mainly near the Cascade crest and
along the higher terrain of the northern and Panhandle mountains
will be possible with each of the aforementioned waves. Hard to
pinpoint the exact timing right now. Temperatures will be near or
on the warm side of normal through the weekend. Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure building over the aviation area
will allow VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours. Minor
exception will be this morning in some of the valleys north of
KGEG to KSFF to KCOE line where areas of morning fog may bring
LIFR ceilings and visibilities at times between 12Z-18Z Monday.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  45  75  45  62  39 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  67  40  75  41  62  36 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Pullman        66  41  73  41  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  30  10
Lewiston       72  45  82  48  67  42 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       70  41  77  46  66  39 /   0   0  10  60  20  20
Sandpoint      67  36  74  40  61  35 /   0   0  10  30  40  20
Kellogg        65  39  72  41  59  36 /   0   0   0  30  40  20
Moses Lake     72  44  78  41  67  39 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Wenatchee      74  50  74  44  67  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           72  43  76  41  67  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
428 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and linger through
Tuesday for a couple of days of nice weather. Between Tuesday
night and Thursday a weather disturbance will bring more seasonal
temperatures, breezy conditions and a threat of showers, followed
by a general drying trend by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Narrow and slightly positively tilted
ridge of high pressure amplifies into the region allowing for a
continuation of the warming and drying trend with temperatures
peaking on Tuesday. Forecast temperatures are well above normal
Tuesday. A quick look at climo records show that most record high
temperatures for Tuesday are in the 80s and 90s so no sites are
expected to be near record highs, at least at this point in time.
/Pelatti

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will
track through the PAC NW during this time frame. Some minor
timing issues but it looks like the associated cold front will
move across the Cascades late Tuesday evening then track quickly
east and be along the ID/MT border right around mid-day Wednesday.
Model guidance is similar showing a brief increase in moisture
with the frontal passage. This will lead to a very good chance
for showers and breezy/gusty winds with the front. The NAM and to
a lesser extent the GFS models are showing a pretty decent
increase in mid and upper level instability with fropa. Forcing
with the front should be quite adequate to lift parcels into this
unstable layer. I went ahead and pushed the timing of the
thunderstorms to coincide with the front between 06z-18z. While
the atmosphere will remain unstable through sunset Wednesday
evening it looks like surfaced based convection Wednesday
afternoon will not be deep enough to support anything more than
showers. Temperatures will take about a 8-12 degree drop putting
temperatures back near normal. Surface pressure gradients will
increase to 10-12mb with 850mb winds between 20-30kts. These winds
should be able to mix down to the surface with and behind the cold
front. With the front coming through at night winds may not reach
the same velocities if it came through during the day. But still
breezy/gusty winds will be common east of the Cascades overnight
and through the morning hours, before decreasing in the
afternoon.

Thursday through Monday the upper pattern will be zonal (west-east
winds) with what looks like a few weak waves moving through B.C at
times. Breezy winds and showers, mainly near the Cascade crest and
along the higher terrain of the northern and Panhandle mountains
will be possible with each of the aforementioned waves. Hard to
pinpoint the exact timing right now. Temperatures will be near or
on the warm side of normal through the weekend. Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure building over the aviation area
will allow VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours. Minor
exception will be this morning in some of the valleys north of
KGEG to KSFF to KCOE line where areas of morning fog may bring
LIFR ceilings and visibilities at times between 12Z-18Z Monday.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  45  75  45  62  39 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  67  40  75  41  62  36 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Pullman        66  41  73  41  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  30  10
Lewiston       72  45  82  48  67  42 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       70  41  77  46  66  39 /   0   0  10  60  20  20
Sandpoint      67  36  74  40  61  35 /   0   0  10  30  40  20
Kellogg        65  39  72  41  59  36 /   0   0   0  30  40  20
Moses Lake     72  44  78  41  67  39 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Wenatchee      74  50  74  44  67  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           72  43  76  41  67  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
428 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and linger through
Tuesday for a couple of days of nice weather. Between Tuesday
night and Thursday a weather disturbance will bring more seasonal
temperatures, breezy conditions and a threat of showers, followed
by a general drying trend by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Narrow and slightly positively tilted
ridge of high pressure amplifies into the region allowing for a
continuation of the warming and drying trend with temperatures
peaking on Tuesday. Forecast temperatures are well above normal
Tuesday. A quick look at climo records show that most record high
temperatures for Tuesday are in the 80s and 90s so no sites are
expected to be near record highs, at least at this point in time.
/Pelatti

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will
track through the PAC NW during this time frame. Some minor
timing issues but it looks like the associated cold front will
move across the Cascades late Tuesday evening then track quickly
east and be along the ID/MT border right around mid-day Wednesday.
Model guidance is similar showing a brief increase in moisture
with the frontal passage. This will lead to a very good chance
for showers and breezy/gusty winds with the front. The NAM and to
a lesser extent the GFS models are showing a pretty decent
increase in mid and upper level instability with fropa. Forcing
with the front should be quite adequate to lift parcels into this
unstable layer. I went ahead and pushed the timing of the
thunderstorms to coincide with the front between 06z-18z. While
the atmosphere will remain unstable through sunset Wednesday
evening it looks like surfaced based convection Wednesday
afternoon will not be deep enough to support anything more than
showers. Temperatures will take about a 8-12 degree drop putting
temperatures back near normal. Surface pressure gradients will
increase to 10-12mb with 850mb winds between 20-30kts. These winds
should be able to mix down to the surface with and behind the cold
front. With the front coming through at night winds may not reach
the same velocities if it came through during the day. But still
breezy/gusty winds will be common east of the Cascades overnight
and through the morning hours, before decreasing in the
afternoon.

Thursday through Monday the upper pattern will be zonal (west-east
winds) with what looks like a few weak waves moving through B.C at
times. Breezy winds and showers, mainly near the Cascade crest and
along the higher terrain of the northern and Panhandle mountains
will be possible with each of the aforementioned waves. Hard to
pinpoint the exact timing right now. Temperatures will be near or
on the warm side of normal through the weekend. Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure building over the aviation area
will allow VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours. Minor
exception will be this morning in some of the valleys north of
KGEG to KSFF to KCOE line where areas of morning fog may bring
LIFR ceilings and visibilities at times between 12Z-18Z Monday.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  45  75  45  62  39 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  67  40  75  41  62  36 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Pullman        66  41  73  41  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  30  10
Lewiston       72  45  82  48  67  42 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       70  41  77  46  66  39 /   0   0  10  60  20  20
Sandpoint      67  36  74  40  61  35 /   0   0  10  30  40  20
Kellogg        65  39  72  41  59  36 /   0   0   0  30  40  20
Moses Lake     72  44  78  41  67  39 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Wenatchee      74  50  74  44  67  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           72  43  76  41  67  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
428 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and linger through
Tuesday for a couple of days of nice weather. Between Tuesday
night and Thursday a weather disturbance will bring more seasonal
temperatures, breezy conditions and a threat of showers, followed
by a general drying trend by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Narrow and slightly positively tilted
ridge of high pressure amplifies into the region allowing for a
continuation of the warming and drying trend with temperatures
peaking on Tuesday. Forecast temperatures are well above normal
Tuesday. A quick look at climo records show that most record high
temperatures for Tuesday are in the 80s and 90s so no sites are
expected to be near record highs, at least at this point in time.
/Pelatti

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will
track through the PAC NW during this time frame. Some minor
timing issues but it looks like the associated cold front will
move across the Cascades late Tuesday evening then track quickly
east and be along the ID/MT border right around mid-day Wednesday.
Model guidance is similar showing a brief increase in moisture
with the frontal passage. This will lead to a very good chance
for showers and breezy/gusty winds with the front. The NAM and to
a lesser extent the GFS models are showing a pretty decent
increase in mid and upper level instability with fropa. Forcing
with the front should be quite adequate to lift parcels into this
unstable layer. I went ahead and pushed the timing of the
thunderstorms to coincide with the front between 06z-18z. While
the atmosphere will remain unstable through sunset Wednesday
evening it looks like surfaced based convection Wednesday
afternoon will not be deep enough to support anything more than
showers. Temperatures will take about a 8-12 degree drop putting
temperatures back near normal. Surface pressure gradients will
increase to 10-12mb with 850mb winds between 20-30kts. These winds
should be able to mix down to the surface with and behind the cold
front. With the front coming through at night winds may not reach
the same velocities if it came through during the day. But still
breezy/gusty winds will be common east of the Cascades overnight
and through the morning hours, before decreasing in the
afternoon.

Thursday through Monday the upper pattern will be zonal (west-east
winds) with what looks like a few weak waves moving through B.C at
times. Breezy winds and showers, mainly near the Cascade crest and
along the higher terrain of the northern and Panhandle mountains
will be possible with each of the aforementioned waves. Hard to
pinpoint the exact timing right now. Temperatures will be near or
on the warm side of normal through the weekend. Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A ridge of high pressure building over the aviation area
will allow VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours. Minor
exception will be this morning in some of the valleys north of
KGEG to KSFF to KCOE line where areas of morning fog may bring
LIFR ceilings and visibilities at times between 12Z-18Z Monday.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  45  75  45  62  39 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  67  40  75  41  62  36 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Pullman        66  41  73  41  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  30  10
Lewiston       72  45  82  48  67  42 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       70  41  77  46  66  39 /   0   0  10  60  20  20
Sandpoint      67  36  74  40  61  35 /   0   0  10  30  40  20
Kellogg        65  39  72  41  59  36 /   0   0   0  30  40  20
Moses Lake     72  44  78  41  67  39 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Wenatchee      74  50  74  44  67  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           72  43  76  41  67  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 271036 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF
FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO B.C. WESTERN WA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FREEZING LEVELS
RISING TO AROUND 9000 FT. MODELS SHOW GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. RAIN
WILL REACH THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO MONDAY...BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND. SHOWERS FROM THE
PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS. BUT SHOWERS LOOK ISOLATED AT
THIS POINT. 33

.LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CLIPPING SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTION OVER WESTERN WA. OVERALL
THE PATTERN IS LOOKING PRETTY QUIET. THE SURFACE FLOW IS ONSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT STALLED OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS
STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE WITH ISOLATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
RISING ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 19Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
TONIGHT.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 1000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO
2000-3000 FEET BY 16Z. CEILINGS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE RISING ABOVE
3000 FEET BY 19Z. CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY 21Z-00Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE
LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. A THIRD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 271036 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF
FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO B.C. WESTERN WA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FREEZING LEVELS
RISING TO AROUND 9000 FT. MODELS SHOW GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. RAIN
WILL REACH THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO MONDAY...BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND. SHOWERS FROM THE
PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS. BUT SHOWERS LOOK ISOLATED AT
THIS POINT. 33

.LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CLIPPING SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTION OVER WESTERN WA. OVERALL
THE PATTERN IS LOOKING PRETTY QUIET. THE SURFACE FLOW IS ONSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT STALLED OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS
STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE WITH ISOLATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
RISING ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 19Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
TONIGHT.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 1000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO
2000-3000 FEET BY 16Z. CEILINGS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE RISING ABOVE
3000 FEET BY 19Z. CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY 21Z-00Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE
LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. A THIRD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KPQR 271028
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
327 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD MORE LIGHT RAIN INLAND
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY SALEM NORTHWARD. GRADUALLY DRIER AND MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. HOWEVER WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STUBBORN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT BEHIND BY YESTERDAYS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PORTLAND CONTINUE TO
RECEIVE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF -RA/DZ PER HOUR...AND
KLGX/KRTX DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SOME VERY LIGHT
ECHOES MOVING ONSHORE. DECIDED TO HOLD CLOUDS/POPS IN THE FORECAST A
BIT LONGER NORTH PORTLAND NORTHWARD...THOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THE PDX
METRO WILL SEE ANY ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIP...JUST SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE FOG IS
REDUCING VSBY TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN CORVALLIS AND EUGENE.

MOIST AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEG F IS THE MAIN CULPRIT
BEHIND ALL THE FOG...DRIZZLE...AND LOW CLOUDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THESE CLOUDS WILL BE IN NO HURRY
TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE STRONG APRIL SUN WILL
EVENTUALLY DO ITS WORK...INITIALLY LIFTING THE LOW CLOUDS INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THEN CLEARING IT OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY DELAY TODAYS BIG WARM UP...BUT TEMPS
SHOULD JUMP QUICKLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR. 06Z NAM SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +12 TO +14 DEG C BY 21Z.

SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW WOULD HELP MAXIMIZE THE WARMTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOST MODELS SEEM TO BE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW TO OCCUR. 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE FCST EAST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT AT PDX THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ODDLY KEEP DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEG
F DESPITE THE DRYING EFFECT OF OFFSHORE FLOW. SOMETHING SEEMS A BIT
FISHY ABOUT THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GRADIENTS REMAIN
FLAT OR SLIGHTLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUT FEELING IS THAT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO
HAVE A DRAMATIC IMPACT ON TEMPS. THEREFORE THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
MOIST AIR MASS MAY KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S...WITH EUGENE
HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF REACHING 80 DEGREES TODAY. THEREFORE WE
BUMPED FCST HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES NORTH OF SALEM. THERE WILL BE A
TOUCH OF HUMIDITY TO THE AIR DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT IS ALREADY NEAR 140W AND WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO
INCREASE TONIGHT. WHILE THIS FRONT INVOLVES THE REMNANTS OF A KONA
LOW WHICH WAS LINGERING NEAR HAWAII FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MOST
OF THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE HEADED FOR THE
BC COAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS THE PAC NW
TUE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS...ONLY 0.25-0.50 INCH...LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND
COAST RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT THERMAL SIGNATURE TO THIS COLD
FRONT...WITH 00Z ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS BACK DOWN TO AROUND +4
DEG C ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY TUE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AROUND...MANY LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60
DEGREES TUESDAY...SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE ITS HERE TODAY.

A FOLLOWING DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA WED. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NEAR 160W. MODELS
SHOW A DECENT COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF
SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THEREFORE SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WED...AND
SNOW LEVELS MAY AGAIN BE DOWN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES. DEPENDING ON
THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ALOFT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE YESTERDAY. THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK IS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING LIKELY
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 50 DEGREES...IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS FORMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER THE MVFR CLOUD DECK CLEARS. EXPECT THIS GENERAL
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE MVFR
STRATUS COMPLETELY GONE BY 15Z TO 18Z. ANY FOG AND LOW LEVEL
STRATUS THAT FORMS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THEN
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRES AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. IFR STRATUS SHOULD
RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z. THEN EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT KPDX
DIRECTLY.  PYLE

&&

MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT A PERIOD
OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LASTING INTO TUE MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN WEAK AND
TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
WESTERLY SWELL TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUE...LIKELY
PUSHING SEAS BACK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH WED.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
     PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271028
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
327 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD MORE LIGHT RAIN INLAND
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY SALEM NORTHWARD. GRADUALLY DRIER AND MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. HOWEVER WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STUBBORN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT BEHIND BY YESTERDAYS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PORTLAND CONTINUE TO
RECEIVE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF -RA/DZ PER HOUR...AND
KLGX/KRTX DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SOME VERY LIGHT
ECHOES MOVING ONSHORE. DECIDED TO HOLD CLOUDS/POPS IN THE FORECAST A
BIT LONGER NORTH PORTLAND NORTHWARD...THOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THE PDX
METRO WILL SEE ANY ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIP...JUST SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE FOG IS
REDUCING VSBY TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN CORVALLIS AND EUGENE.

MOIST AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEG F IS THE MAIN CULPRIT
BEHIND ALL THE FOG...DRIZZLE...AND LOW CLOUDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THESE CLOUDS WILL BE IN NO HURRY
TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE STRONG APRIL SUN WILL
EVENTUALLY DO ITS WORK...INITIALLY LIFTING THE LOW CLOUDS INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THEN CLEARING IT OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY DELAY TODAYS BIG WARM UP...BUT TEMPS
SHOULD JUMP QUICKLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR. 06Z NAM SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +12 TO +14 DEG C BY 21Z.

SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW WOULD HELP MAXIMIZE THE WARMTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOST MODELS SEEM TO BE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW TO OCCUR. 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE FCST EAST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT AT PDX THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ODDLY KEEP DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEG
F DESPITE THE DRYING EFFECT OF OFFSHORE FLOW. SOMETHING SEEMS A BIT
FISHY ABOUT THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GRADIENTS REMAIN
FLAT OR SLIGHTLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUT FEELING IS THAT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO
HAVE A DRAMATIC IMPACT ON TEMPS. THEREFORE THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
MOIST AIR MASS MAY KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S...WITH EUGENE
HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF REACHING 80 DEGREES TODAY. THEREFORE WE
BUMPED FCST HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES NORTH OF SALEM. THERE WILL BE A
TOUCH OF HUMIDITY TO THE AIR DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT IS ALREADY NEAR 140W AND WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO
INCREASE TONIGHT. WHILE THIS FRONT INVOLVES THE REMNANTS OF A KONA
LOW WHICH WAS LINGERING NEAR HAWAII FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MOST
OF THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE HEADED FOR THE
BC COAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS THE PAC NW
TUE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS...ONLY 0.25-0.50 INCH...LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND
COAST RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT THERMAL SIGNATURE TO THIS COLD
FRONT...WITH 00Z ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS BACK DOWN TO AROUND +4
DEG C ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY TUE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AROUND...MANY LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60
DEGREES TUESDAY...SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE ITS HERE TODAY.

A FOLLOWING DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA WED. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NEAR 160W. MODELS
SHOW A DECENT COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF
SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THEREFORE SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WED...AND
SNOW LEVELS MAY AGAIN BE DOWN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES. DEPENDING ON
THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ALOFT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE YESTERDAY. THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK IS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING LIKELY
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 50 DEGREES...IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS FORMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER THE MVFR CLOUD DECK CLEARS. EXPECT THIS GENERAL
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE MVFR
STRATUS COMPLETELY GONE BY 15Z TO 18Z. ANY FOG AND LOW LEVEL
STRATUS THAT FORMS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THEN
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRES AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. IFR STRATUS SHOULD
RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z. THEN EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT KPDX
DIRECTLY.  PYLE

&&

MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT A PERIOD
OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LASTING INTO TUE MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN WEAK AND
TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
WESTERLY SWELL TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUE...LIKELY
PUSHING SEAS BACK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH WED.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
     PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271028
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
327 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD MORE LIGHT RAIN INLAND
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY SALEM NORTHWARD. GRADUALLY DRIER AND MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. HOWEVER WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STUBBORN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT BEHIND BY YESTERDAYS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PORTLAND CONTINUE TO
RECEIVE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF -RA/DZ PER HOUR...AND
KLGX/KRTX DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SOME VERY LIGHT
ECHOES MOVING ONSHORE. DECIDED TO HOLD CLOUDS/POPS IN THE FORECAST A
BIT LONGER NORTH PORTLAND NORTHWARD...THOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THE PDX
METRO WILL SEE ANY ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIP...JUST SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE FOG IS
REDUCING VSBY TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN CORVALLIS AND EUGENE.

MOIST AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEG F IS THE MAIN CULPRIT
BEHIND ALL THE FOG...DRIZZLE...AND LOW CLOUDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THESE CLOUDS WILL BE IN NO HURRY
TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE STRONG APRIL SUN WILL
EVENTUALLY DO ITS WORK...INITIALLY LIFTING THE LOW CLOUDS INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THEN CLEARING IT OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY DELAY TODAYS BIG WARM UP...BUT TEMPS
SHOULD JUMP QUICKLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR. 06Z NAM SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +12 TO +14 DEG C BY 21Z.

SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW WOULD HELP MAXIMIZE THE WARMTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOST MODELS SEEM TO BE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW TO OCCUR. 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE FCST EAST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT AT PDX THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ODDLY KEEP DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEG
F DESPITE THE DRYING EFFECT OF OFFSHORE FLOW. SOMETHING SEEMS A BIT
FISHY ABOUT THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GRADIENTS REMAIN
FLAT OR SLIGHTLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUT FEELING IS THAT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO
HAVE A DRAMATIC IMPACT ON TEMPS. THEREFORE THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
MOIST AIR MASS MAY KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S...WITH EUGENE
HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF REACHING 80 DEGREES TODAY. THEREFORE WE
BUMPED FCST HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES NORTH OF SALEM. THERE WILL BE A
TOUCH OF HUMIDITY TO THE AIR DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT IS ALREADY NEAR 140W AND WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO
INCREASE TONIGHT. WHILE THIS FRONT INVOLVES THE REMNANTS OF A KONA
LOW WHICH WAS LINGERING NEAR HAWAII FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MOST
OF THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE HEADED FOR THE
BC COAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS THE PAC NW
TUE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS/MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS...ONLY 0.25-0.50 INCH...LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND
COAST RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT THERMAL SIGNATURE TO THIS COLD
FRONT...WITH 00Z ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS BACK DOWN TO AROUND +4
DEG C ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY TUE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AROUND...MANY LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60
DEGREES TUESDAY...SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE ITS HERE TODAY.

A FOLLOWING DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA WED. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NEAR 160W. MODELS
SHOW A DECENT COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF
SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THEREFORE SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WED...AND
SNOW LEVELS MAY AGAIN BE DOWN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES. DEPENDING ON
THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ALOFT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE YESTERDAY. THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK IS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING LIKELY
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 50 DEGREES...IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS FORMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER THE MVFR CLOUD DECK CLEARS. EXPECT THIS GENERAL
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE MVFR
STRATUS COMPLETELY GONE BY 15Z TO 18Z. ANY FOG AND LOW LEVEL
STRATUS THAT FORMS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THEN
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRES AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. IFR STRATUS SHOULD
RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z. THEN EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT KPDX
DIRECTLY.  PYLE

&&

MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT A PERIOD
OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LASTING INTO TUE MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN WEAK AND
TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING
WESTERLY SWELL TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUE...LIKELY
PUSHING SEAS BACK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH WED.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
     PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 271018
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF
FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO B.C. WESTERN WA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FREEZING LEVELS
RISING TO AROUND 9000 FT. MODELS SHOW GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. RAIN
WILL REACH THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO MONDAY...BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND. SHOWERS FROM THE
PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS. BUT SHOWERS LOOK ISOLATED AT
THIS POINT. 33

.LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CLIPPING SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTION OVER WESTERN WA. OVERALL
THE PATTERN IS LOOKING PRETTY QUIET. THE SURFACE FLOW IS ONSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT STALLED OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS
STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE WITH ISOLATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
RISING ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 19Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
TONIGHT.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 1000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO
2000-3000 FEET BY 16Z. CEILINGS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE RISING ABOVE
3000 FEET BY 19Z. CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY 21Z-00Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE
LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. A THIRD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 271018
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF
FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO B.C. WESTERN WA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FREEZING LEVELS
RISING TO AROUND 9000 FT. MODELS SHOW GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. RAIN
WILL REACH THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO MONDAY...BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND. SHOWERS FROM THE
PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS. BUT SHOWERS LOOK ISOLATED AT
THIS POINT. 33

.LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CLIPPING SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTION OVER WESTERN WA. OVERALL
THE PATTERN IS LOOKING PRETTY QUIET. THE SURFACE FLOW IS ONSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT STALLED OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS
STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE WITH ISOLATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
RISING ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 19Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
TONIGHT.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 1000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO
2000-3000 FEET BY 16Z. CEILINGS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE RISING ABOVE
3000 FEET BY 19Z. CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY 21Z-00Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE
LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. A THIRD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 271018
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF
FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO B.C. WESTERN WA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FREEZING LEVELS
RISING TO AROUND 9000 FT. MODELS SHOW GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. RAIN
WILL REACH THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO MONDAY...BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND. SHOWERS FROM THE
PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS. BUT SHOWERS LOOK ISOLATED AT
THIS POINT. 33

.LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CLIPPING SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTION OVER WESTERN WA. OVERALL
THE PATTERN IS LOOKING PRETTY QUIET. THE SURFACE FLOW IS ONSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT STALLED OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS
STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE WITH ISOLATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
RISING ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 19Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
TONIGHT.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 1000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO
2000-3000 FEET BY 16Z. CEILINGS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE RISING ABOVE
3000 FEET BY 19Z. CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY 21Z-00Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE
LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. A THIRD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 271018
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF
FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO B.C. WESTERN WA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FREEZING LEVELS
RISING TO AROUND 9000 FT. MODELS SHOW GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. RAIN
WILL REACH THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO MONDAY...BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND. SHOWERS FROM THE
PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS. BUT SHOWERS LOOK ISOLATED AT
THIS POINT. 33

.LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CLIPPING SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTION OVER WESTERN WA. OVERALL
THE PATTERN IS LOOKING PRETTY QUIET. THE SURFACE FLOW IS ONSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MODELS SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT STALLED OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS
STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE WITH ISOLATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
RISING ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 19Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
TONIGHT.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 1000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO
2000-3000 FEET BY 16Z. CEILINGS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE RISING ABOVE
3000 FEET BY 19Z. CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY 21Z-00Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE
LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. A THIRD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 270914
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
213 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and linger through
Tuesday for a couple of days of nice weather. Between Tuesday
night and Thursday a weather disturbance will bring more seasonal
temperatures, breezy conditions and a threat of showers, followed
by a general drying trend by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Narrow and slightly positively tilted
ridge of high pressure amplifies into the region allowing for a
continuation of the warming and drying trend with temperatures
peaking on Tuesday. Forecast temperatures are well above normal
Tuesday. A quick look at climo records show that most record high
temperatures for Tuesday are in the 80s and 90s so no sites are
expected to be near record highs, at least at this point in time.
/Pelatti

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will
track through the PAC NW during this time frame. Some minor
timing issues but it looks like the associated cold front will
move across the Cascades late Tuesday evening then track quickly
east and be along the ID/MT border right around mid-day Wednesday.
Model guidance is similar showing a brief increase in moisture
with the frontal passage. This will lead to a very good chance
for showers and breezy/gusty winds with the front. The NAM and to
a lesser extent the GFS models are showing a pretty decent
increase in mid and upper level instability with fropa. Forcing
with the front should be quite adequate to lift parcels into this
unstable layer. I went ahead and pushed the timing of the
thunderstorms to coincide with the front between 06z-18z. While
the atmosphere will remain unstable through sunset Wednesday
evening it looks like surfaced based convection Wednesday
afternoon will not be deep enough to support anything more than
showers. Temperatures will take about a 8-12 degree drop putting
temperatures back near normal. Surface pressure gradients will
increase to 10-12mb with 850mb winds between 20-30kts. These winds
should be able to mix down to the surface with and behind the cold
front. With the front coming through at night winds may not reach
the same velocities if it came through during the day. But still
breezy/gusty winds will be common east of the Cascades overnight
and through the morning hours, before decreasing in the
afternoon.

Thursday through Monday the upper pattern will be zonal (west-east
winds) with what looks like a few weak waves moving through B.C at
times. Breezy winds and showers, mainly near the Cascade crest and
along the higher terrain of the northern and Panhandle mountains
will be possible with each of the aforementioned waves. Hard to
pinpoint the exact timing right now. Temperatures will be near or
on the warm side of normal through the weekend. Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through at least 06Z Tuesday. There is a low threat of fog
developing from 12-18Z in the northern valleys of NE WA and ID.
Mountain cumulus is expected through the afternoon hours. Clearing
skies is expected from west to east through the late afternoon and
early evening.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  45  75  45  62  39 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  67  40  75  41  62  36 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Pullman        66  41  73  41  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  30  10
Lewiston       72  45  82  48  67  42 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       70  41  77  46  66  39 /   0   0  10  60  20  20
Sandpoint      67  36  74  40  61  35 /   0   0  10  30  40  20
Kellogg        65  39  72  41  59  36 /   0   0   0  30  40  20
Moses Lake     72  44  78  41  67  39 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Wenatchee      74  50  74  44  67  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           72  43  76  41  67  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 270914
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
213 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and linger through
Tuesday for a couple of days of nice weather. Between Tuesday
night and Thursday a weather disturbance will bring more seasonal
temperatures, breezy conditions and a threat of showers, followed
by a general drying trend by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Narrow and slightly positively tilted
ridge of high pressure amplifies into the region allowing for a
continuation of the warming and drying trend with temperatures
peaking on Tuesday. Forecast temperatures are well above normal
Tuesday. A quick look at climo records show that most record high
temperatures for Tuesday are in the 80s and 90s so no sites are
expected to be near record highs, at least at this point in time.
/Pelatti

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will
track through the PAC NW during this time frame. Some minor
timing issues but it looks like the associated cold front will
move across the Cascades late Tuesday evening then track quickly
east and be along the ID/MT border right around mid-day Wednesday.
Model guidance is similar showing a brief increase in moisture
with the frontal passage. This will lead to a very good chance
for showers and breezy/gusty winds with the front. The NAM and to
a lesser extent the GFS models are showing a pretty decent
increase in mid and upper level instability with fropa. Forcing
with the front should be quite adequate to lift parcels into this
unstable layer. I went ahead and pushed the timing of the
thunderstorms to coincide with the front between 06z-18z. While
the atmosphere will remain unstable through sunset Wednesday
evening it looks like surfaced based convection Wednesday
afternoon will not be deep enough to support anything more than
showers. Temperatures will take about a 8-12 degree drop putting
temperatures back near normal. Surface pressure gradients will
increase to 10-12mb with 850mb winds between 20-30kts. These winds
should be able to mix down to the surface with and behind the cold
front. With the front coming through at night winds may not reach
the same velocities if it came through during the day. But still
breezy/gusty winds will be common east of the Cascades overnight
and through the morning hours, before decreasing in the
afternoon.

Thursday through Monday the upper pattern will be zonal (west-east
winds) with what looks like a few weak waves moving through B.C at
times. Breezy winds and showers, mainly near the Cascade crest and
along the higher terrain of the northern and Panhandle mountains
will be possible with each of the aforementioned waves. Hard to
pinpoint the exact timing right now. Temperatures will be near or
on the warm side of normal through the weekend. Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through at least 06Z Tuesday. There is a low threat of fog
developing from 12-18Z in the northern valleys of NE WA and ID.
Mountain cumulus is expected through the afternoon hours. Clearing
skies is expected from west to east through the late afternoon and
early evening.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  45  75  45  62  39 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  67  40  75  41  62  36 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Pullman        66  41  73  41  60  37 /   0   0   0  20  30  10
Lewiston       72  45  82  48  67  42 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       70  41  77  46  66  39 /   0   0  10  60  20  20
Sandpoint      67  36  74  40  61  35 /   0   0  10  30  40  20
Kellogg        65  39  72  41  59  36 /   0   0   0  30  40  20
Moses Lake     72  44  78  41  67  39 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Wenatchee      74  50  74  44  67  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           72  43  76  41  67  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 270537
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through at least 06Z Tuesday. There is a low threat of fog
developing from 12-18Z in the northern valleys of NE WA and ID.
Mountain cumulus is expected through the afternoon hours. Clearing
skies is expected from west to east through the late afternoon and
early evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 270537
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through at least 06Z Tuesday. There is a low threat of fog
developing from 12-18Z in the northern valleys of NE WA and ID.
Mountain cumulus is expected through the afternoon hours. Clearing
skies is expected from west to east through the late afternoon and
early evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 270537
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through at least 06Z Tuesday. There is a low threat of fog
developing from 12-18Z in the northern valleys of NE WA and ID.
Mountain cumulus is expected through the afternoon hours. Clearing
skies is expected from west to east through the late afternoon and
early evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 270537
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through at least 06Z Tuesday. There is a low threat of fog
developing from 12-18Z in the northern valleys of NE WA and ID.
Mountain cumulus is expected through the afternoon hours. Clearing
skies is expected from west to east through the late afternoon and
early evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 270537
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through at least 06Z Tuesday. There is a low threat of fog
developing from 12-18Z in the northern valleys of NE WA and ID.
Mountain cumulus is expected through the afternoon hours. Clearing
skies is expected from west to east through the late afternoon and
early evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270410
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WAS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPS...WITH AREAS INLAND POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SOME RAIN...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADVERTISED...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING FROM THE EASTERN END OF A
PASSING WARM FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY...AND IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT TREND IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. THE ASSOCIATED
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BRING CLEARING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING..AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING
AIR MASS THAT COULD PUSH SOME INLAND TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
80. THE INCREASING MILD AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
RAIN OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD. SNOW LEVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LOWERING BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT... WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT THE SKI RESORTS AND A SKIFF AT THE PASSES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT
NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES.
DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
SEEN PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AS SOME OF THE RAIN
BANDS CROSSED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z AT THE COAST WITH CIGS LIFTING A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A VERY HIGH DECK REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE WAYS OFF THE PACNW COAST.
THIS WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPDX AND KTTD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COAST WILL PICK UP A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
ROUGHLY AFTER 28/00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
VISUAL APPROACHES. THINK THESE WILL BREAK UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AS A
FIRST GUESS BUT IT COULD BE AS LATE AS 12-15Z. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL OVER A SMALL AREA AT BEST AROUND BUOY
29. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A BIT EARLY.
THE EASING WINDS LET SEAS EASE A BIT AS WELL BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM AS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 10 KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING NORTH AND ABOUT 300 NM
OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE DYNAMIC SWELL TRAIN TO TRAIL THE WINDS BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH SEAS CLIMBING ABOVE 10 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY
CREATING THERMAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS COMMONLY BRINGS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 270408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER WESTERN WA TONIGHT. THERE
MAY STILL BE FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AROUND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WA MONDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE AIR WARMING AND DRYING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
TO WRN MONTANA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
COAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARD THE PACNW THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE 4PM DISCUSSION...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUED TO DISAGREE AND HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY...THUS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS LOW.
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS WERE TRENDING TOWARD AN UPPER RIDGE DURING THE
END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NOT SURE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD. CONSEQUENTLY...KEPT A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. AIR
MASS STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
INTERIOR NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THE 1500-2500 FOOT CEILINGS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SOUND
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. CEILINGS IMPROVING LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET 09Z-13Z. CEILINGS LIFT LATER MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT
THE FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

IN GENERAL WINDS WILL EASE MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE EASING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BRIEF WEST PUSH
IN THE STRAIT LATER MONDAY BUT WITH A SECOND FRONT ALREADY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THE PUSH WILL BE BRIEF.

THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. GALE FORCE WEST WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES. A THIRD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FELTON/SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 270408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER WESTERN WA TONIGHT. THERE
MAY STILL BE FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AROUND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WA MONDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE AIR WARMING AND DRYING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
TO WRN MONTANA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
COAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARD THE PACNW THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE 4PM DISCUSSION...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUED TO DISAGREE AND HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY...THUS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS LOW.
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS WERE TRENDING TOWARD AN UPPER RIDGE DURING THE
END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NOT SURE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD. CONSEQUENTLY...KEPT A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. AIR
MASS STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
INTERIOR NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THE 1500-2500 FOOT CEILINGS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SOUND
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. CEILINGS IMPROVING LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET 09Z-13Z. CEILINGS LIFT LATER MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT
THE FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

IN GENERAL WINDS WILL EASE MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE EASING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BRIEF WEST PUSH
IN THE STRAIT LATER MONDAY BUT WITH A SECOND FRONT ALREADY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THE PUSH WILL BE BRIEF.

THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. GALE FORCE WEST WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES. A THIRD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FELTON/SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 270408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER WESTERN WA TONIGHT. THERE
MAY STILL BE FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AROUND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WA MONDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE AIR WARMING AND DRYING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
TO WRN MONTANA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
COAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARD THE PACNW THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE 4PM DISCUSSION...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUED TO DISAGREE AND HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY...THUS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS LOW.
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS WERE TRENDING TOWARD AN UPPER RIDGE DURING THE
END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NOT SURE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD. CONSEQUENTLY...KEPT A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. AIR
MASS STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
INTERIOR NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THE 1500-2500 FOOT CEILINGS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SOUND
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. CEILINGS IMPROVING LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET 09Z-13Z. CEILINGS LIFT LATER MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT
THE FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

IN GENERAL WINDS WILL EASE MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE EASING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BRIEF WEST PUSH
IN THE STRAIT LATER MONDAY BUT WITH A SECOND FRONT ALREADY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THE PUSH WILL BE BRIEF.

THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. GALE FORCE WEST WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES. A THIRD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FELTON/SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 270408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER WESTERN WA TONIGHT. THERE
MAY STILL BE FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AROUND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WA MONDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE AIR WARMING AND DRYING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
TO WRN MONTANA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
COAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARD THE PACNW THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE 4PM DISCUSSION...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUED TO DISAGREE AND HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY...THUS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS LOW.
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS WERE TRENDING TOWARD AN UPPER RIDGE DURING THE
END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NOT SURE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD. CONSEQUENTLY...KEPT A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. AIR
MASS STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
INTERIOR NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THE 1500-2500 FOOT CEILINGS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SOUND
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. CEILINGS IMPROVING LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET 09Z-13Z. CEILINGS LIFT LATER MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT
THE FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

IN GENERAL WINDS WILL EASE MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE EASING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BRIEF WEST PUSH
IN THE STRAIT LATER MONDAY BUT WITH A SECOND FRONT ALREADY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THE PUSH WILL BE BRIEF.

THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. GALE FORCE WEST WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES. A THIRD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FELTON/SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 270408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER WESTERN WA TONIGHT. THERE
MAY STILL BE FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AROUND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WA MONDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE AIR WARMING AND DRYING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
TO WRN MONTANA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
COAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARD THE PACNW THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE 4PM DISCUSSION...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUED TO DISAGREE AND HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY...THUS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS LOW.
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS WERE TRENDING TOWARD AN UPPER RIDGE DURING THE
END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NOT SURE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD. CONSEQUENTLY...KEPT A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. AIR
MASS STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
INTERIOR NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THE 1500-2500 FOOT CEILINGS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SOUND
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. CEILINGS IMPROVING LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET 09Z-13Z. CEILINGS LIFT LATER MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT
THE FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

IN GENERAL WINDS WILL EASE MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE EASING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BRIEF WEST PUSH
IN THE STRAIT LATER MONDAY BUT WITH A SECOND FRONT ALREADY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THE PUSH WILL BE BRIEF.

THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. GALE FORCE WEST WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES. A THIRD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FELTON/SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 270408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER WESTERN WA TONIGHT. THERE
MAY STILL BE FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AROUND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WA MONDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE AIR WARMING AND DRYING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
TO WRN MONTANA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
COAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARD THE PACNW THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE 4PM DISCUSSION...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUED TO DISAGREE AND HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY...THUS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS LOW.
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS WERE TRENDING TOWARD AN UPPER RIDGE DURING THE
END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NOT SURE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD. CONSEQUENTLY...KEPT A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. AIR
MASS STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
INTERIOR NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THE 1500-2500 FOOT CEILINGS COULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SOUND
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. CEILINGS IMPROVING LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET 09Z-13Z. CEILINGS LIFT LATER MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT
THE FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

IN GENERAL WINDS WILL EASE MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE EASING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BRIEF WEST PUSH
IN THE STRAIT LATER MONDAY BUT WITH A SECOND FRONT ALREADY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THE PUSH WILL BE BRIEF.

THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. GALE FORCE WEST WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES. A THIRD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FELTON/SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 262335
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through at least 00Z Tuesday. Morning fog will exist
through 18Z in the northern valleys of NE WA and ID before
burning off. Mountain cumulus is expected through the afternoon
hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262335
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through at least 00Z Tuesday. Morning fog will exist
through 18Z in the northern valleys of NE WA and ID before
burning off. Mountain cumulus is expected through the afternoon
hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 262335
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through at least 00Z Tuesday. Morning fog will exist
through 18Z in the northern valleys of NE WA and ID before
burning off. Mountain cumulus is expected through the afternoon
hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 262224
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
324 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA MAINLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR A COLD
FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAKENING WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THUS FAR...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN HAS
BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT...SO POPS WERE CUT BACK OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MON. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
INTO THE INTERIOR WEST MON NIGHT...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUE. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
/PSCZ/ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. DAYTIME TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUE.

AN UPPER TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT
AND WED FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUED TO DISAGREE AND HAVE TROUBLE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY...THUS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PERIOD WAS LOW. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS WERE TRENDING TOWARD AN UPPER
RIDGE DURING THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER NOT SURE THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD. CONSEQUENTLY...KEPT A RISK OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABLE.

MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY BE 4000-6000 FEET OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH 2000-4000
FOOT CEILINGS TOWARDS THE COAST. CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER ON
MONDAY.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO 4000-6000 FEET THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8
KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT
THE FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

IN GENERAL WINDS WILL EASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE EASING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A BRIEF WEST PUSH IN THE STRAIT
LATER MONDAY BUT THE DETAILS ARE A BIT MUDDLED AS A SECOND FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS EARLY TUESDAY.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. GALE FORCE WEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE STRONGER GFS VERIFIES. A THIRD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262115
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through 18Z Monday. Morning fog will exist through 20Z in
the northern valleys of WA and ID before burning off...with
mountain cumulus through 02Z. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 262115
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through 18Z Monday. Morning fog will exist through 20Z in
the northern valleys of WA and ID before burning off...with
mountain cumulus through 02Z. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262115
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few lingering mountain showers this evening, expect a
drying and warming trend through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Thursday a system brings more seasonal temperatures, breezy
conditions and a threat of showers, followed by a general drying
trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level ridge is sprouting over the
forecast area today. Satellite imagery does not clearly show this
due to a feed of moisture impinging on the northwest coast...but
models are in good agreement in rapidly strengthening this ridge
aloft and allowing the incoming moisture field to be shunted off
to the north of the region tonight. The approaching deep trough
visible far out over the Pacific near 150W will plausibly allow
this strengthening. However...areas of thick high clouds will
transit the region through the next 24 hours as this high altitude
moisture enhances over a mid level warm front. The only real
chance of precipitation will be over the high Cascades overnight
tonight near the crest...closer to the deeper moisture and
benefiting from orographic ascent just over the crest on the west
side.

Otherwise a quiet and cool night is on tap but not as cold as
last night. Residual boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s
shower activity may set the stage for some more valley fog tonight
to the north of the basin but not as extensive as this morning.

Monday will be a dry day with filtered sunshine and light winds as
the ridge strengthens. High temperatures will bounce back up to
slightly above normal at most locations. /Fugazzi

Monday night to Thursday: The Inland NW transitions from warm
and dry to cooler and breezy with shower chances, as an amplified
ridge is replaced by a deep trough. Between Monday night and
Tuesday the ridge axis will be shifting east, while the trough
axis advances to the coast. This puts the region in a stout
southwesterly flow, giving much of the region the warmest day of
the week. Regional 850mb temperatures rise into the lower to mid-
teens, supporting highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The
exception will be near the Cascades as the onshore flow and first
shortwave rounding the parent trough brings a relative cool-down
here. That shortwave will bring some clouds and a chance of
showers to the Cascades crest too. The other region that may
receive some showers and perhaps some thunder will be the
northeast mountains by afternoon, with steepening lapse rates and
some marginal CAPE per some models. More likely, however, these
factors will just lead to afternoon cumulus in this region. The
approaching trough will also lead to breezy conditions by mid to
later afternoon as pressure gradients tighten between the two air
masses.

Between Tuesday night into Wednesday a second shortwave rounds
the parent trough and helps propel a cold front across the region.
This will bring the next best chance of precipitation. Clouds and
shower chances expand between late evening and Wednesday morning.
The modest westerly and downslope flow should keep the
precipitation threat to a minimum in the lee of the Cascades.
Additionally, outside of the Cascade crest and northeast
mountains, it appears the precipitation duration and amounts
should be limited because the front appears to pass relatively
quickly. However there is some elevated instability along the
front and I wouldn`t rule out some thunder or at least locally
enhanced precipitation rates. Confidence is only high enough to
place some thunder chances across the northern mountains Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night the main upper trough
migrates across the Inland NW. There is some disagreement on the
timing and these differences will continue to be ironed out. In
general the trough will be accompanied by another cold pool. It
doesn`t appear as strong of a cold pool as the one that crossed
this Saturday (yesterday), but it should be enough to bring some
threat of hit-and-miss showers and perhaps some isolated thunder
during the afternoon and evening hours. The main risk will be
around the mountains. However a few showers cannot be ruled out
over the eastern Columbia Basin under the unstable trough. The
risk wanes through the evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and a flat ridge nudging in from the west. Expect
otherwise breezy conditions, a few clouds and temperatures cooling
closer to seasonal averages.

By Thursday models start to diverge over the details of the
pattern. However in a loose way they show a flat ridge migrating
over the region while another shortwave trough approaches
northwest WA. Currently that next trough is weaker and tracks
further north than Wednesday`s. In general look for some
clouds from the west-northwest. A slight chance of showers was kept
near the central and southern Panhandle mountains due to some
model disagreements on how quickly Wednesday`s trough exits.
Shower chances will also spread into the Cascades and skim along
the BC/US border with the approach of that next wave. Otherwise
conditions look mostly dry and seasonal. /J. Cote`

Thursday night through Monday: The general consensus amongst the
medium range models is for progressive westerly flow to setup
across the Inland NW with shortwave trofs rippling through at
times. Models continue to struggle with the details of these
features but overall, this looks to be a low impact weather period
with the potential for light mountain showers and at times, breezy
afternoon winds in the Basin. Temperatures will be very close to
seasonal readings topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. The
GFS/ECMWF have been hinting at the idea of an area of low pressure
branching off from the mean flow and drifting down the Pac NW
Coastline early next work week. If this were to occur, the region
would experience increasing southerly flow increasing the threat
for afternoon T-storms and above normal warmth. At this time,
confidence remains low regarding any particular model details in
that time-frame but definitely something to keep an eye on. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through 18Z Monday. Morning fog will exist through 20Z in
the northern valleys of WA and ID before burning off...with
mountain cumulus through 02Z. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  66  45  74  43  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  67  40  74  42  62 /  10   0   0  10  50  30
Pullman        35  66  41  73  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Lewiston       39  72  45  80  48  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       37  70  41  76  42  66 /  10   0   0  10  60  30
Sandpoint      32  67  36  73  40  61 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Kellogg        34  65  39  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     40  72  44  77  42  67 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      45  74  50  74  45  67 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           38  72  43  74  40  67 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262114
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
213 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A VERY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WARMER WEATHER FOR MON. COOLER WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE...AND LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. SO WILL MODIFY
RAIN THREAT TO BE JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG COAST N AND E INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS. WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BURST OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING FROM SALEM NORTHWARD. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TO SOUTH OF
SALEM...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
TAKE RAIN THREAT N AS WELL. OVER NW OREGON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD FAVOR SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. EITHER WAY...BOTH
WOULD NOT LAST LONG ON MON AM. WITH REGION UNDER A WARM AIR MASS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL SEE A VERY MILD DAY FOR MON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES BUT NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES AND TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL AT THIS TIME.
THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AND
TREND...THE PARTICULARS REFLECT A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THAT
SAID...DID CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDING OF THE MODELS...BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...CASCADES...AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST/COAST RANGE AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS...SUSPECT THAT MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT HEAVILY
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MON AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AND VSBY...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
04Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED MVFR CIGS EARLY MON
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TURN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS TURN VFR UNDER SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MON AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT CONTINUED
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT BY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON MON BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RETURNS WED...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. THIS COULD
BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHOPPY AND
OCCASIONALLY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 7 FT LATE WED AND REMAINING BELOW 10 FT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
       THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 261659
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...An upper level ridge is beginning to build into
the region today. This will effectively stabilize the atmosphere
with mainly dry conditions...although there continues a ghost of a
chance of showers over the high terrain of the Idaho Panhandle
where warming aloft will be less aggressive and thus some
lingering weak instability coupled with localized orographic
ascent. Otherwise plenty of sunshine filtered through variable
high clouds is expected today...with the valley fog over the
northeastern zone gradually burning off by early afternoon.
Temperatures will still run slightly below normal...recovering
from well below normal yesterday and on the way to cresting near
above normal tomorrow as the upper ridge exerts itself more fully.
Minor updates to zone forecast and State Forecast expected.
/Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through 18Z Monday. Morning fog will exist through 20Z in
the northern valleys of WA and ID before burning off...with
mountain cumulus through 02Z. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  57  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       62  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       60  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      57  32  66  36  72  40 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        55  35  66  40  72  43 /  10  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      65  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           63  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261659
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...An upper level ridge is beginning to build into
the region today. This will effectively stabilize the atmosphere
with mainly dry conditions...although there continues a ghost of a
chance of showers over the high terrain of the Idaho Panhandle
where warming aloft will be less aggressive and thus some
lingering weak instability coupled with localized orographic
ascent. Otherwise plenty of sunshine filtered through variable
high clouds is expected today...with the valley fog over the
northeastern zone gradually burning off by early afternoon.
Temperatures will still run slightly below normal...recovering
from well below normal yesterday and on the way to cresting near
above normal tomorrow as the upper ridge exerts itself more fully.
Minor updates to zone forecast and State Forecast expected.
/Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through 18Z Monday. Morning fog will exist through 20Z in
the northern valleys of WA and ID before burning off...with
mountain cumulus through 02Z. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  57  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       62  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       60  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      57  32  66  36  72  40 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        55  35  66  40  72  43 /  10  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      65  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           63  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261659
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...An upper level ridge is beginning to build into
the region today. This will effectively stabilize the atmosphere
with mainly dry conditions...although there continues a ghost of a
chance of showers over the high terrain of the Idaho Panhandle
where warming aloft will be less aggressive and thus some
lingering weak instability coupled with localized orographic
ascent. Otherwise plenty of sunshine filtered through variable
high clouds is expected today...with the valley fog over the
northeastern zone gradually burning off by early afternoon.
Temperatures will still run slightly below normal...recovering
from well below normal yesterday and on the way to cresting near
above normal tomorrow as the upper ridge exerts itself more fully.
Minor updates to zone forecast and State Forecast expected.
/Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through 18Z Monday. Morning fog will exist through 20Z in
the northern valleys of WA and ID before burning off...with
mountain cumulus through 02Z. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  57  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       62  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       60  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      57  32  66  36  72  40 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        55  35  66  40  72  43 /  10  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      65  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           63  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261659
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...An upper level ridge is beginning to build into
the region today. This will effectively stabilize the atmosphere
with mainly dry conditions...although there continues a ghost of a
chance of showers over the high terrain of the Idaho Panhandle
where warming aloft will be less aggressive and thus some
lingering weak instability coupled with localized orographic
ascent. Otherwise plenty of sunshine filtered through variable
high clouds is expected today...with the valley fog over the
northeastern zone gradually burning off by early afternoon.
Temperatures will still run slightly below normal...recovering
from well below normal yesterday and on the way to cresting near
above normal tomorrow as the upper ridge exerts itself more fully.
Minor updates to zone forecast and State Forecast expected.
/Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A building upper level ridge aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface will promote VFR conditions at all TAF
sites through 18Z Monday. Morning fog will exist through 20Z in
the northern valleys of WA and ID before burning off...with
mountain cumulus through 02Z. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  57  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       62  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       60  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      57  32  66  36  72  40 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        55  35  66  40  72  43 /  10  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      65  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           63  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 261607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
907 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COASTLINE LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING FOR A THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A PAIR OF COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ABOUT MIDWEEK FOR COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE
OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTS LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A THREAT OF RAIN OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST...THROUGH TONIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
EXIT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE.

SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MODELS SHOWED A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE /PSCZ/ FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND...AND SHOWERS FROM THE
PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 33/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS LOW. MODELS
SHOW ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A TROUGH OVER B.C. MAY CLIP
WESTERN WA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. AFTER THAT THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABLE.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS AT
THE COAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST TODAY. CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 4000-6000 FEET OVER THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH 2000-4000 FOOT CEILINGS TOWARDS THE COAST.

KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS OF 4000-6000 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
LATER TODAY. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A FEW HOURS OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT THE
FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. A THIRD FRONT COULD REACH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 261607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
907 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COASTLINE LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING FOR A THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A PAIR OF COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ABOUT MIDWEEK FOR COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE
OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTS LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A THREAT OF RAIN OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST...THROUGH TONIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
EXIT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE.

SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MODELS SHOWED A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE /PSCZ/ FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND...AND SHOWERS FROM THE
PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 33/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS LOW. MODELS
SHOW ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A TROUGH OVER B.C. MAY CLIP
WESTERN WA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. AFTER THAT THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABLE.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS AT
THE COAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST TODAY. CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 4000-6000 FEET OVER THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH 2000-4000 FOOT CEILINGS TOWARDS THE COAST.

KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS OF 4000-6000 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
LATER TODAY. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A FEW HOURS OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT THE
FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. A THIRD FRONT COULD REACH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 261607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
907 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COASTLINE LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING FOR A THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A PAIR OF COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ABOUT MIDWEEK FOR COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE
OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTS LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A THREAT OF RAIN OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST...THROUGH TONIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
EXIT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE.

SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MODELS SHOWED A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE /PSCZ/ FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND...AND SHOWERS FROM THE
PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 33/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS LOW. MODELS
SHOW ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A TROUGH OVER B.C. MAY CLIP
WESTERN WA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. AFTER THAT THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABLE.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS AT
THE COAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST TODAY. CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 4000-6000 FEET OVER THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH 2000-4000 FOOT CEILINGS TOWARDS THE COAST.

KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS OF 4000-6000 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
LATER TODAY. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A FEW HOURS OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT THE
FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. A THIRD FRONT COULD REACH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 261607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
907 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COASTLINE LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING FOR A THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A PAIR OF COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ABOUT MIDWEEK FOR COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE
OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTS LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A THREAT OF RAIN OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST...THROUGH TONIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
EXIT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE.

SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MODELS SHOWED A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE /PSCZ/ FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND...AND SHOWERS FROM THE
PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 33/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS LOW. MODELS
SHOW ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A TROUGH OVER B.C. MAY CLIP
WESTERN WA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. AFTER THAT THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABLE.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS AT
THE COAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST TODAY. CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 4000-6000 FEET OVER THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH 2000-4000 FOOT CEILINGS TOWARDS THE COAST.

KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS OF 4000-6000 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
LATER TODAY. WINDS COULD ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR A FEW HOURS OVER SOME OF THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS BUT THE
FORECAST IS 10-20 KNOTS FOR NOW.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WEST WINDS TO THE STRAIT. A THIRD FRONT COULD REACH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
900 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL BUCKLE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER
FOR MON. COOLER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE AND
LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR SHOWS MOST STEADY PRECIPITATION
JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT STREAMING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION.

WILL BOOST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE...
AND OVER SW WASHINGTON AS THIS RAIN PUSHES INLAND. STILL THINK MOST
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
BURST OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ONE MOVES...THE LESS THE THREAT OF RAIN. SEEMS ONLY SPRINKLES S
OF A CORVALLIS TO SANTIAM PASS LINE TODAY.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT AREAS OVER LANE COUNTY AND AS FAR N AS SALEM WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE RAIN THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
THE WARMER AIR INTO THAT REGION...WITH HIGHS OVER S WILLAMETTE VALLEY
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S LATER TODAY. MOISTURE THREAT WILL PUSH
FURTHER N TONIGHT...LEAVING ALL AREAS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WILL KEEP SOME SPRINKLES IN FAR N ZONES THIS EVENING.

MUCH WARM AIR MASS OVER REGION ON MON...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WOULD
INDICATE HIGHS ON MON TO REACH INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY
RETURNS LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEY...BUT THE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION.

COASTAL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 09Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000
FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON
  ALL COASTAL WATERS.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
900 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL BUCKLE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER
FOR MON. COOLER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE AND
LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR SHOWS MOST STEADY PRECIPITATION
JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT STREAMING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION.

WILL BOOST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE...
AND OVER SW WASHINGTON AS THIS RAIN PUSHES INLAND. STILL THINK MOST
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
BURST OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ONE MOVES...THE LESS THE THREAT OF RAIN. SEEMS ONLY SPRINKLES S
OF A CORVALLIS TO SANTIAM PASS LINE TODAY.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT AREAS OVER LANE COUNTY AND AS FAR N AS SALEM WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE RAIN THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
THE WARMER AIR INTO THAT REGION...WITH HIGHS OVER S WILLAMETTE VALLEY
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S LATER TODAY. MOISTURE THREAT WILL PUSH
FURTHER N TONIGHT...LEAVING ALL AREAS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WILL KEEP SOME SPRINKLES IN FAR N ZONES THIS EVENING.

MUCH WARM AIR MASS OVER REGION ON MON...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WOULD
INDICATE HIGHS ON MON TO REACH INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY
RETURNS LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEY...BUT THE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION.

COASTAL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 09Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000
FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON
  ALL COASTAL WATERS.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
900 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL BUCKLE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER
FOR MON. COOLER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUE AND
LAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER MOIST WARM
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM. RADAR SHOWS MOST STEADY PRECIPITATION
JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT STREAMING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION.

WILL BOOST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE...
AND OVER SW WASHINGTON AS THIS RAIN PUSHES INLAND. STILL THINK MOST
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
BURST OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ONE MOVES...THE LESS THE THREAT OF RAIN. SEEMS ONLY SPRINKLES S
OF A CORVALLIS TO SANTIAM PASS LINE TODAY.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS EVENING. SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT AREAS OVER LANE COUNTY AND AS FAR N AS SALEM WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE RAIN THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
THE WARMER AIR INTO THAT REGION...WITH HIGHS OVER S WILLAMETTE VALLEY
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S LATER TODAY. MOISTURE THREAT WILL PUSH
FURTHER N TONIGHT...LEAVING ALL AREAS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WILL KEEP SOME SPRINKLES IN FAR N ZONES THIS EVENING.

MUCH WARM AIR MASS OVER REGION ON MON...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WOULD
INDICATE HIGHS ON MON TO REACH INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  ROCKEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...INLAND TAF SITES CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF KSLE. LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY
RETURNS LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEY...BUT THE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION.

COASTAL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 09Z. LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000
FT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AS SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON
  ALL COASTAL WATERS.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261249
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
548 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase fog wording in the zones this morning based on
observations and webcam images as well as satellite imagery showing
areas of fog in lowland and valley areas over a good portion of
Northeast Washington this morning. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy morning fog making LIFR ceilings and visibilities
at times at KGEG, KSFF, and KCOE this morning until 18Z at the
latest, otherwise VFR conditions prevail as weak high pressure
moves into the area. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       62  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      58  32  66  36  72  40 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        56  35  66  40  72  43 /  20  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           65  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261249
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
548 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase fog wording in the zones this morning based on
observations and webcam images as well as satellite imagery showing
areas of fog in lowland and valley areas over a good portion of
Northeast Washington this morning. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy morning fog making LIFR ceilings and visibilities
at times at KGEG, KSFF, and KCOE this morning until 18Z at the
latest, otherwise VFR conditions prevail as weak high pressure
moves into the area. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       62  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      58  32  66  36  72  40 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        56  35  66  40  72  43 /  20  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           65  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261249
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
548 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase fog wording in the zones this morning based on
observations and webcam images as well as satellite imagery showing
areas of fog in lowland and valley areas over a good portion of
Northeast Washington this morning. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy morning fog making LIFR ceilings and visibilities
at times at KGEG, KSFF, and KCOE this morning until 18Z at the
latest, otherwise VFR conditions prevail as weak high pressure
moves into the area. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       62  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      58  32  66  36  72  40 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        56  35  66  40  72  43 /  20  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           65  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261125
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The area of low pressure responsible for
yesterday`s unsettled weather continues movement away to the east
and high pressure moves in from the southwest and west. The end
result is general warming and drying trend. Minor mention of
valley fog and stratus is included this morning due to leftover
moisture from yesterday`s showers. As the ridge amplifies skies
cover should decrease. Minor pops do remain for today over part of
North Idaho today due to the slow exit of the low and near the
north part of the Cascades where another minor occluded frontal
zone brushes up against it as it glides up over the building
ridge. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...As we had hoped a few days ago the
models are in much better agreement through Thursday at least
before showing some departure. High pressure will be over the
region Monday night with the ridge axis shifting east Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next upstream low pressure system moves into the
region. All the way out on Friday the models begin to diverge,
as the GFS/Canadian show zonal flow if not weak ridging, while
the EC tries tor drop another upper low south out of B.C.

Monday night into Tuesday will be warm and mainly dry. Temperatures
will climb into the 70s as a warm south-southwest flow develops
ahead of the incoming trough. By Tuesday afternoon enough moisture
will stream northward along and west of the Cascades to increase
the chance for precipitation along the crest.

Tuesday night through Thursday night the upper low will take it`s
time swing through the region. This will result in a cooling
trend with temperatures dropping back into the 60s. This will
still be just on the warm side of normal. A first weak front will
move through the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday with
showers mainly confined to the Cascades and across the Blue
mountains and Camas Prairie. Moisture is kind of sparse through
Wednesday morning and precipitation should remain light. But
southwest winds will increase behind the front Tuesday evening and
linger into Wednesday morning.

The chance for showers will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday for most areas outside of the basin as the main
trough passes through and taps into slightly deeper moisture. The
models are hinting at enough instability Wednesday afternoon and
into early Wednesday evening for a low end chance of thunderstorms
along the north Cascades and possibly the Okanonagan Highlands.
This will depend largely on the timing of the trough getting
across the Cascades. At this time it looks like it just may be
slow enough to miss the peak heating of the day, but this could
easily change between now and Wednesday. At this time
thunderstorms will remain out of the forecast, but expect plenty
of showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Southwest-west winds will
also be on the increase and become gusty at times.

Friday and Saturday...This is where the models begin to have
differences. This forecast will lean in favor of zonal flow to
weak ridging both days. Westerly flow will keep temperatures near
if not just above normal and should carry enough moisture to keep
isolated to scattered, mainly mountain showers in the forecast.
Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy morning fog making for MVFR to LIFR conditions
at times at KGEG and KSFF this morning until 18Z at the latest,
otherwise VFR conditions prevail as weak high pressure moves into
the area. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       62  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      58  32  66  36  72  40 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        56  35  66  40  72  43 /  20  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           65  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261125
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The area of low pressure responsible for
yesterday`s unsettled weather continues movement away to the east
and high pressure moves in from the southwest and west. The end
result is general warming and drying trend. Minor mention of
valley fog and stratus is included this morning due to leftover
moisture from yesterday`s showers. As the ridge amplifies skies
cover should decrease. Minor pops do remain for today over part of
North Idaho today due to the slow exit of the low and near the
north part of the Cascades where another minor occluded frontal
zone brushes up against it as it glides up over the building
ridge. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...As we had hoped a few days ago the
models are in much better agreement through Thursday at least
before showing some departure. High pressure will be over the
region Monday night with the ridge axis shifting east Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next upstream low pressure system moves into the
region. All the way out on Friday the models begin to diverge,
as the GFS/Canadian show zonal flow if not weak ridging, while
the EC tries tor drop another upper low south out of B.C.

Monday night into Tuesday will be warm and mainly dry. Temperatures
will climb into the 70s as a warm south-southwest flow develops
ahead of the incoming trough. By Tuesday afternoon enough moisture
will stream northward along and west of the Cascades to increase
the chance for precipitation along the crest.

Tuesday night through Thursday night the upper low will take it`s
time swing through the region. This will result in a cooling
trend with temperatures dropping back into the 60s. This will
still be just on the warm side of normal. A first weak front will
move through the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday with
showers mainly confined to the Cascades and across the Blue
mountains and Camas Prairie. Moisture is kind of sparse through
Wednesday morning and precipitation should remain light. But
southwest winds will increase behind the front Tuesday evening and
linger into Wednesday morning.

The chance for showers will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday for most areas outside of the basin as the main
trough passes through and taps into slightly deeper moisture. The
models are hinting at enough instability Wednesday afternoon and
into early Wednesday evening for a low end chance of thunderstorms
along the north Cascades and possibly the Okanonagan Highlands.
This will depend largely on the timing of the trough getting
across the Cascades. At this time it looks like it just may be
slow enough to miss the peak heating of the day, but this could
easily change between now and Wednesday. At this time
thunderstorms will remain out of the forecast, but expect plenty
of showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Southwest-west winds will
also be on the increase and become gusty at times.

Friday and Saturday...This is where the models begin to have
differences. This forecast will lean in favor of zonal flow to
weak ridging both days. Westerly flow will keep temperatures near
if not just above normal and should carry enough moisture to keep
isolated to scattered, mainly mountain showers in the forecast.
Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy morning fog making for MVFR to LIFR conditions
at times at KGEG and KSFF this morning until 18Z at the latest,
otherwise VFR conditions prevail as weak high pressure moves into
the area. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       62  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      58  32  66  36  72  40 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        56  35  66  40  72  43 /  20  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           65  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261125
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The area of low pressure responsible for
yesterday`s unsettled weather continues movement away to the east
and high pressure moves in from the southwest and west. The end
result is general warming and drying trend. Minor mention of
valley fog and stratus is included this morning due to leftover
moisture from yesterday`s showers. As the ridge amplifies skies
cover should decrease. Minor pops do remain for today over part of
North Idaho today due to the slow exit of the low and near the
north part of the Cascades where another minor occluded frontal
zone brushes up against it as it glides up over the building
ridge. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...As we had hoped a few days ago the
models are in much better agreement through Thursday at least
before showing some departure. High pressure will be over the
region Monday night with the ridge axis shifting east Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next upstream low pressure system moves into the
region. All the way out on Friday the models begin to diverge,
as the GFS/Canadian show zonal flow if not weak ridging, while
the EC tries tor drop another upper low south out of B.C.

Monday night into Tuesday will be warm and mainly dry. Temperatures
will climb into the 70s as a warm south-southwest flow develops
ahead of the incoming trough. By Tuesday afternoon enough moisture
will stream northward along and west of the Cascades to increase
the chance for precipitation along the crest.

Tuesday night through Thursday night the upper low will take it`s
time swing through the region. This will result in a cooling
trend with temperatures dropping back into the 60s. This will
still be just on the warm side of normal. A first weak front will
move through the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday with
showers mainly confined to the Cascades and across the Blue
mountains and Camas Prairie. Moisture is kind of sparse through
Wednesday morning and precipitation should remain light. But
southwest winds will increase behind the front Tuesday evening and
linger into Wednesday morning.

The chance for showers will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday for most areas outside of the basin as the main
trough passes through and taps into slightly deeper moisture. The
models are hinting at enough instability Wednesday afternoon and
into early Wednesday evening for a low end chance of thunderstorms
along the north Cascades and possibly the Okanonagan Highlands.
This will depend largely on the timing of the trough getting
across the Cascades. At this time it looks like it just may be
slow enough to miss the peak heating of the day, but this could
easily change between now and Wednesday. At this time
thunderstorms will remain out of the forecast, but expect plenty
of showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Southwest-west winds will
also be on the increase and become gusty at times.

Friday and Saturday...This is where the models begin to have
differences. This forecast will lean in favor of zonal flow to
weak ridging both days. Westerly flow will keep temperatures near
if not just above normal and should carry enough moisture to keep
isolated to scattered, mainly mountain showers in the forecast.
Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy morning fog making for MVFR to LIFR conditions
at times at KGEG and KSFF this morning until 18Z at the latest,
otherwise VFR conditions prevail as weak high pressure moves into
the area. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       62  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      58  32  66  36  72  40 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        56  35  66  40  72  43 /  20  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           65  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261125
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The area of low pressure responsible for
yesterday`s unsettled weather continues movement away to the east
and high pressure moves in from the southwest and west. The end
result is general warming and drying trend. Minor mention of
valley fog and stratus is included this morning due to leftover
moisture from yesterday`s showers. As the ridge amplifies skies
cover should decrease. Minor pops do remain for today over part of
North Idaho today due to the slow exit of the low and near the
north part of the Cascades where another minor occluded frontal
zone brushes up against it as it glides up over the building
ridge. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...As we had hoped a few days ago the
models are in much better agreement through Thursday at least
before showing some departure. High pressure will be over the
region Monday night with the ridge axis shifting east Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next upstream low pressure system moves into the
region. All the way out on Friday the models begin to diverge,
as the GFS/Canadian show zonal flow if not weak ridging, while
the EC tries tor drop another upper low south out of B.C.

Monday night into Tuesday will be warm and mainly dry. Temperatures
will climb into the 70s as a warm south-southwest flow develops
ahead of the incoming trough. By Tuesday afternoon enough moisture
will stream northward along and west of the Cascades to increase
the chance for precipitation along the crest.

Tuesday night through Thursday night the upper low will take it`s
time swing through the region. This will result in a cooling
trend with temperatures dropping back into the 60s. This will
still be just on the warm side of normal. A first weak front will
move through the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday with
showers mainly confined to the Cascades and across the Blue
mountains and Camas Prairie. Moisture is kind of sparse through
Wednesday morning and precipitation should remain light. But
southwest winds will increase behind the front Tuesday evening and
linger into Wednesday morning.

The chance for showers will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday for most areas outside of the basin as the main
trough passes through and taps into slightly deeper moisture. The
models are hinting at enough instability Wednesday afternoon and
into early Wednesday evening for a low end chance of thunderstorms
along the north Cascades and possibly the Okanonagan Highlands.
This will depend largely on the timing of the trough getting
across the Cascades. At this time it looks like it just may be
slow enough to miss the peak heating of the day, but this could
easily change between now and Wednesday. At this time
thunderstorms will remain out of the forecast, but expect plenty
of showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Southwest-west winds will
also be on the increase and become gusty at times.

Friday and Saturday...This is where the models begin to have
differences. This forecast will lean in favor of zonal flow to
weak ridging both days. Westerly flow will keep temperatures near
if not just above normal and should carry enough moisture to keep
isolated to scattered, mainly mountain showers in the forecast.
Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy morning fog making for MVFR to LIFR conditions
at times at KGEG and KSFF this morning until 18Z at the latest,
otherwise VFR conditions prevail as weak high pressure moves into
the area. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       62  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      58  32  66  36  72  40 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        56  35  66  40  72  43 /  20  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           65  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261125
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The area of low pressure responsible for
yesterday`s unsettled weather continues movement away to the east
and high pressure moves in from the southwest and west. The end
result is general warming and drying trend. Minor mention of
valley fog and stratus is included this morning due to leftover
moisture from yesterday`s showers. As the ridge amplifies skies
cover should decrease. Minor pops do remain for today over part of
North Idaho today due to the slow exit of the low and near the
north part of the Cascades where another minor occluded frontal
zone brushes up against it as it glides up over the building
ridge. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...As we had hoped a few days ago the
models are in much better agreement through Thursday at least
before showing some departure. High pressure will be over the
region Monday night with the ridge axis shifting east Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next upstream low pressure system moves into the
region. All the way out on Friday the models begin to diverge,
as the GFS/Canadian show zonal flow if not weak ridging, while
the EC tries tor drop another upper low south out of B.C.

Monday night into Tuesday will be warm and mainly dry. Temperatures
will climb into the 70s as a warm south-southwest flow develops
ahead of the incoming trough. By Tuesday afternoon enough moisture
will stream northward along and west of the Cascades to increase
the chance for precipitation along the crest.

Tuesday night through Thursday night the upper low will take it`s
time swing through the region. This will result in a cooling
trend with temperatures dropping back into the 60s. This will
still be just on the warm side of normal. A first weak front will
move through the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday with
showers mainly confined to the Cascades and across the Blue
mountains and Camas Prairie. Moisture is kind of sparse through
Wednesday morning and precipitation should remain light. But
southwest winds will increase behind the front Tuesday evening and
linger into Wednesday morning.

The chance for showers will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday for most areas outside of the basin as the main
trough passes through and taps into slightly deeper moisture. The
models are hinting at enough instability Wednesday afternoon and
into early Wednesday evening for a low end chance of thunderstorms
along the north Cascades and possibly the Okanonagan Highlands.
This will depend largely on the timing of the trough getting
across the Cascades. At this time it looks like it just may be
slow enough to miss the peak heating of the day, but this could
easily change between now and Wednesday. At this time
thunderstorms will remain out of the forecast, but expect plenty
of showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Southwest-west winds will
also be on the increase and become gusty at times.

Friday and Saturday...This is where the models begin to have
differences. This forecast will lean in favor of zonal flow to
weak ridging both days. Westerly flow will keep temperatures near
if not just above normal and should carry enough moisture to keep
isolated to scattered, mainly mountain showers in the forecast.
Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy morning fog making for MVFR to LIFR conditions
at times at KGEG and KSFF this morning until 18Z at the latest,
otherwise VFR conditions prevail as weak high pressure moves into
the area. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       62  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      58  32  66  36  72  40 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        56  35  66  40  72  43 /  20  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           65  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261125
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The area of low pressure responsible for
yesterday`s unsettled weather continues movement away to the east
and high pressure moves in from the southwest and west. The end
result is general warming and drying trend. Minor mention of
valley fog and stratus is included this morning due to leftover
moisture from yesterday`s showers. As the ridge amplifies skies
cover should decrease. Minor pops do remain for today over part of
North Idaho today due to the slow exit of the low and near the
north part of the Cascades where another minor occluded frontal
zone brushes up against it as it glides up over the building
ridge. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...As we had hoped a few days ago the
models are in much better agreement through Thursday at least
before showing some departure. High pressure will be over the
region Monday night with the ridge axis shifting east Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next upstream low pressure system moves into the
region. All the way out on Friday the models begin to diverge,
as the GFS/Canadian show zonal flow if not weak ridging, while
the EC tries tor drop another upper low south out of B.C.

Monday night into Tuesday will be warm and mainly dry. Temperatures
will climb into the 70s as a warm south-southwest flow develops
ahead of the incoming trough. By Tuesday afternoon enough moisture
will stream northward along and west of the Cascades to increase
the chance for precipitation along the crest.

Tuesday night through Thursday night the upper low will take it`s
time swing through the region. This will result in a cooling
trend with temperatures dropping back into the 60s. This will
still be just on the warm side of normal. A first weak front will
move through the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday with
showers mainly confined to the Cascades and across the Blue
mountains and Camas Prairie. Moisture is kind of sparse through
Wednesday morning and precipitation should remain light. But
southwest winds will increase behind the front Tuesday evening and
linger into Wednesday morning.

The chance for showers will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday for most areas outside of the basin as the main
trough passes through and taps into slightly deeper moisture. The
models are hinting at enough instability Wednesday afternoon and
into early Wednesday evening for a low end chance of thunderstorms
along the north Cascades and possibly the Okanonagan Highlands.
This will depend largely on the timing of the trough getting
across the Cascades. At this time it looks like it just may be
slow enough to miss the peak heating of the day, but this could
easily change between now and Wednesday. At this time
thunderstorms will remain out of the forecast, but expect plenty
of showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Southwest-west winds will
also be on the increase and become gusty at times.

Friday and Saturday...This is where the models begin to have
differences. This forecast will lean in favor of zonal flow to
weak ridging both days. Westerly flow will keep temperatures near
if not just above normal and should carry enough moisture to keep
isolated to scattered, mainly mountain showers in the forecast.
Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy morning fog making for MVFR to LIFR conditions
at times at KGEG and KSFF this morning until 18Z at the latest,
otherwise VFR conditions prevail as weak high pressure moves into
the area. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       62  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      58  32  66  36  72  40 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        56  35  66  40  72  43 /  20  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           65  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 261029
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
329 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT MONDAY. A WEAK BUT FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE FLURRIES IN
THE CASCADE PASSES...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD AND FLOW BEGINS TO TURN OFFSHORE.
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF 30S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO WARM UP INITIALLY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT...PRESENTLY
CROSSING 130W AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON
COAST. KLGX/KRTX RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP SOME ECHOES JUST
OFFSHORE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AT THE MOMENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...AS MILD AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR OVERRUNS THE
COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME
RAIN WILL FALL PDX METRO NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. 06Z GFS/NAM APPEAR TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS
NOW INDICATING LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE COAST RANGE BY MIDDAY. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LIKELY
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE OREGON COAST RANGE AFTER
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME CLEARING IN LANE COUNTY BY THE TIME THE DAY IS DONE...AND WITH
THE WARMING AIR MASS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE EUGENE COULD PUSH WELL INTO
THE 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL TARGET THE WA COAST...MAINLY THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT PACIFIC
COUNTY MAY GET BRUSHED WITH RAIN TOTALS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM FROM
+4 DEG C TODAY TO +12 TO +14 DEG C MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S DUE TO AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND THAT STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN MAY ALLOW
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. LIGHT
WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON AT TIMES TODAY...WITH AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO FORM TO
THE W AND N OF KPDX...BUT EXPECT THE TERMINAL TO STAY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z
MON. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AND SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261029
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
329 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT MONDAY. A WEAK BUT FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE FLURRIES IN
THE CASCADE PASSES...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD AND FLOW BEGINS TO TURN OFFSHORE.
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF 30S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO WARM UP INITIALLY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT...PRESENTLY
CROSSING 130W AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON
COAST. KLGX/KRTX RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP SOME ECHOES JUST
OFFSHORE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AT THE MOMENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...AS MILD AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR OVERRUNS THE
COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME
RAIN WILL FALL PDX METRO NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. 06Z GFS/NAM APPEAR TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS
NOW INDICATING LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE COAST RANGE BY MIDDAY. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LIKELY
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE OREGON COAST RANGE AFTER
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME CLEARING IN LANE COUNTY BY THE TIME THE DAY IS DONE...AND WITH
THE WARMING AIR MASS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE EUGENE COULD PUSH WELL INTO
THE 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL TARGET THE WA COAST...MAINLY THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT PACIFIC
COUNTY MAY GET BRUSHED WITH RAIN TOTALS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM FROM
+4 DEG C TODAY TO +12 TO +14 DEG C MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S DUE TO AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND THAT STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN MAY ALLOW
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. LIGHT
WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON AT TIMES TODAY...WITH AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO FORM TO
THE W AND N OF KPDX...BUT EXPECT THE TERMINAL TO STAY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z
MON. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AND SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261029
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
329 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT MONDAY. A WEAK BUT FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE FLURRIES IN
THE CASCADE PASSES...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD AND FLOW BEGINS TO TURN OFFSHORE.
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF 30S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO WARM UP INITIALLY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT...PRESENTLY
CROSSING 130W AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON
COAST. KLGX/KRTX RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP SOME ECHOES JUST
OFFSHORE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AT THE MOMENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...AS MILD AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR OVERRUNS THE
COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME
RAIN WILL FALL PDX METRO NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. 06Z GFS/NAM APPEAR TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS
NOW INDICATING LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE COAST RANGE BY MIDDAY. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LIKELY
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE OREGON COAST RANGE AFTER
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME CLEARING IN LANE COUNTY BY THE TIME THE DAY IS DONE...AND WITH
THE WARMING AIR MASS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE EUGENE COULD PUSH WELL INTO
THE 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL TARGET THE WA COAST...MAINLY THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT PACIFIC
COUNTY MAY GET BRUSHED WITH RAIN TOTALS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM FROM
+4 DEG C TODAY TO +12 TO +14 DEG C MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S DUE TO AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND THAT STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN MAY ALLOW
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. LIGHT
WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON AT TIMES TODAY...WITH AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO FORM TO
THE W AND N OF KPDX...BUT EXPECT THE TERMINAL TO STAY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z
MON. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AND SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261029
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
329 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT MONDAY. A WEAK BUT FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE FLURRIES IN
THE CASCADE PASSES...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD AND FLOW BEGINS TO TURN OFFSHORE.
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF 30S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO WARM UP INITIALLY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT...PRESENTLY
CROSSING 130W AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON
COAST. KLGX/KRTX RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP SOME ECHOES JUST
OFFSHORE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AT THE MOMENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...AS MILD AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR OVERRUNS THE
COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME
RAIN WILL FALL PDX METRO NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. 06Z GFS/NAM APPEAR TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS
NOW INDICATING LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE COAST RANGE BY MIDDAY. DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LIKELY
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE OREGON COAST RANGE AFTER
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME CLEARING IN LANE COUNTY BY THE TIME THE DAY IS DONE...AND WITH
THE WARMING AIR MASS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE EUGENE COULD PUSH WELL INTO
THE 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL TARGET THE WA COAST...MAINLY THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT PACIFIC
COUNTY MAY GET BRUSHED WITH RAIN TOTALS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM FROM
+4 DEG C TODAY TO +12 TO +14 DEG C MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S DUE TO AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW SUGGEST TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY...THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HOLD
OFF THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER 70S IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS WENT WITH THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTION...AND
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND THAT STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...00Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST NW OF HAWAII THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MAKING A DECISIVE TURN NORTHEAST WHERE IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR
30N/160W...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO OUR TUESDAY
FRONT. WITH A MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSENSUS ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW WED...SO WE INCREASED POPS WED AS A RESULT. 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODEL AGREEMENT HOLD
FOR A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY TIMING
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...SO
WE KEPT GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST. ONCE TEMPS
FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK...THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN MAY ALLOW
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. LIGHT
WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON AT TIMES TODAY...WITH AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO FORM TO
THE W AND N OF KPDX...BUT EXPECT THE TERMINAL TO STAY CLEAR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z
MON. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON AND SURFACE HIGH PRES
RETURNS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME MON NIGHT OR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN N CALIF. THIS MAY BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT
TIMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT ABOUT 5 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME MIXED
SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 261010
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER ON MONDAY. A PAIR OF FRONTS WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPS DROPPED TO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AS WELL. BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
WA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. THIS IS A WEAK FRONT WITH LIGHT
PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTING THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THE WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE INTERIOR
BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE PATCHY AND LIGHT. IT WILL BE WARMER
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE
WILL EXIT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE.

LOOK FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BREEZY S/SW
WINDS. MODELS SHOW A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE FORMING OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUND...AND SHOWERS FROM THE PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. 33

.LONG TERM...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS
LOW. MODELS SHOW ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A TROUGH OVER B.C.
MAY CLIP WESTERN WA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. AFTER THAT THE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. 33

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. WEAKENING FRONT REACHING THE COAST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AIR MASS STABLE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE
REACHED THE COAST AND WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH
THE CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE INTERIOR UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 4000 FEET WITH THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST THIS EVENING.

KSEA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY 00Z MONDAY. CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER INTO
THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...FLAT SURFACE GRADIENTS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES INLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH MID TO HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE INLAND WATERS.

AFTER A BREAK ON MONDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS WEAK WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND TUESDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BUT THE 00Z GFS IS INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 261010
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER ON MONDAY. A PAIR OF FRONTS WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPS DROPPED TO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AS WELL. BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
WA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. THIS IS A WEAK FRONT WITH LIGHT
PRECIP MAINLY AFFECTING THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THE WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE INTERIOR
BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE PATCHY AND LIGHT. IT WILL BE WARMER
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE
WILL EXIT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE.

LOOK FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BREEZY S/SW
WINDS. MODELS SHOW A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE FORMING OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUND...AND SHOWERS FROM THE PSCZ MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. 33

.LONG TERM...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS
LOW. MODELS SHOW ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A TROUGH OVER B.C.
MAY CLIP WESTERN WA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. AFTER THAT THE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A FORECAST CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. 33

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. WEAKENING FRONT REACHING THE COAST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AIR MASS STABLE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE
REACHED THE COAST AND WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH
THE CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE INTERIOR UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 4000 FEET WITH THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST THIS EVENING.

KSEA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY 00Z MONDAY. CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER INTO
THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...FLAT SURFACE GRADIENTS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES INLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH MID TO HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER THE INLAND WATERS.

AFTER A BREAK ON MONDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS WEAK WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND TUESDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BUT THE 00Z GFS IS INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260937
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest today. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of the work week. The threat for showers will increase beginning
late Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The area of low pressure responsible for
yesterday`s unsettled weather continues movement away to the east
and high pressure moves in from the southwest and west. The end
result is general warming and drying trend. Minor mention of
valley fog and stratus is included this morning due to leftover
moisture from yesterday`s showers. As the ridge amplifies skies
cover should decrease. Minor pops do remain for today over part of
North Idaho today due to the slow exit of the low and near the
north part of the Cascades where another minor occluded frontal
zone brushes up against it as it glides up over the building
ridge. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...As we had hoped a few days ago the
models are in much better agreement through Thursday at least
before showing some departure. High pressure will be over the
region Monday night with the ridge axis shifting east Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next upstream low pressure system moves into the
region. All the way out on Friday the models begin to diverge,
as the GFS/Canadian show zonal flow if not weak ridging, while
the EC tries tor drop another upper low south out of B.C.

Monday night into Tuesday will be warm and mainly dry. Temperatures
will climb into the 70s as a warm south-southwest flow develops
ahead of the incoming trough. By Tuesday afternoon enough moisture
will stream northward along and west of the Cascades to increase
the chance for precipitation along the crest.

Tuesday night through Thursday night the upper low will take it`s
time swing through the region. This will result in a cooling
trend with temperatures dropping back into the 60s. This will
still be just on the warm side of normal. A first weak front will
move through the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday with
showers mainly confined to the Cascades and across the Blue
mountains and Camas Prairie. Moisture is kind of sparse through
Wednesday morning and precipitation should remain light. But
southwest winds will increase behind the front Tuesday evening and
linger into Wednesday morning.

The chance for showers will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday for most areas outside of the basin as the main
trough passes through and taps into slightly deeper moisture. The
models are hinting at enough instability Wednesday afternoon and
into early Wednesday evening for a low end chance of thunderstorms
along the north Cascades and possibly the Okanonagan Highlands.
This will depend largely on the timing of the trough getting
across the Cascades. At this time it looks like it just may be
slow enough to miss the peak heating of the day, but this could
easily change between now and Wednesday. At this time
thunderstorms will remain out of the forecast, but expect plenty
of showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Southwest-west winds will
also be on the increase and become gusty at times.

Friday and Saturday...This is where the models begin to have
differences. This forecast will lean in favor of zonal flow to
weak ridging both days. Westerly flow will keep temperatures near
if not just above normal and should carry enough moisture to keep
isolated to scattered, mainly mountain showers in the forecast.
Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Dry with VFR conditions for at least the next 24 hours.
Where recent showers occurred may see some patchy shallow fog
around sunrise. Not confident enough to put cigs in any TAFS, but
the best potential is for KGEG, KSFF and KPUW and outlying areas.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  39  67  45  74  43 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  35  67  41  74  42 /  10  10   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  35  67  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       63  40  72  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       62  36  70  41  76  40 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      58  32  66  36  72  40 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        56  35  66  40  72  43 /  20  10   0   0   0  30
Moses Lake     64  40  72  45  77  42 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  45  73  48  73  45 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           65  39  72  42  74  39 /  10  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260633
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest Sunday. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of next week. The threat for showers will increase beginning late
Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to add mention of patchy fog in some of the northeast
valleys and to lower some of the forecast overnight lows for
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Dry with VFR conditions for at least the next 24 hours.
Where recent showers occurred may see some patchy shallow fog
around sunrise. Not confident enough to put cigs in any TAFS, but
the best potential is for KGEG, KSFF and KPUW and outlying areas.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  59  39  67  45  74 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  33  59  35  67  41  73 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        31  57  35  67  43  71 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       34  63  40  72  45  79 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       31  62  36  70  41  75 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      32  58  32  66  36  72 /  10  20  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        30  56  35  66  40  71 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     32  64  40  72  45  76 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  66  45  73  48  72 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /   0  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260633
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest Sunday. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of next week. The threat for showers will increase beginning late
Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to add mention of patchy fog in some of the northeast
valleys and to lower some of the forecast overnight lows for
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Dry with VFR conditions for at least the next 24 hours.
Where recent showers occurred may see some patchy shallow fog
around sunrise. Not confident enough to put cigs in any TAFS, but
the best potential is for KGEG, KSFF and KPUW and outlying areas.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  59  39  67  45  74 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  33  59  35  67  41  73 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        31  57  35  67  43  71 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       34  63  40  72  45  79 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       31  62  36  70  41  75 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      32  58  32  66  36  72 /  10  20  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        30  56  35  66  40  71 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     32  64  40  72  45  76 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  66  45  73  48  72 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /   0  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260633
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest Sunday. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of next week. The threat for showers will increase beginning late
Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to add mention of patchy fog in some of the northeast
valleys and to lower some of the forecast overnight lows for
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Dry with VFR conditions for at least the next 24 hours.
Where recent showers occurred may see some patchy shallow fog
around sunrise. Not confident enough to put cigs in any TAFS, but
the best potential is for KGEG, KSFF and KPUW and outlying areas.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  59  39  67  45  74 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  33  59  35  67  41  73 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        31  57  35  67  43  71 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       34  63  40  72  45  79 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       31  62  36  70  41  75 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      32  58  32  66  36  72 /  10  20  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        30  56  35  66  40  71 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     32  64  40  72  45  76 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  66  45  73  48  72 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /   0  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260633
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest Sunday. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of next week. The threat for showers will increase beginning late
Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to add mention of patchy fog in some of the northeast
valleys and to lower some of the forecast overnight lows for
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Dry with VFR conditions for at least the next 24 hours.
Where recent showers occurred may see some patchy shallow fog
around sunrise. Not confident enough to put cigs in any TAFS, but
the best potential is for KGEG, KSFF and KPUW and outlying areas.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  59  39  67  45  74 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  33  59  35  67  41  73 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        31  57  35  67  43  71 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       34  63  40  72  45  79 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       31  62  36  70  41  75 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      32  58  32  66  36  72 /  10  20  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        30  56  35  66  40  71 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     32  64  40  72  45  76 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  66  45  73  48  72 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /   0  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260346 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
845 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will weaken and move out of the Inland
Northwest Sunday. This will be followed by high pressure, with
warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions, for the beginning
of next week. The threat for showers will increase beginning late
Tuesday, lasting through the end of next week.

&&

.Update...
Update tonight was to decrease showers across the region. As the
sun set and we lost our heat source, the showers quickly wained
across the area. There are a few locations where showers may
continue such as from Colville to Republic and across the Snake
River area in the southern Palouse. Some showers may pop up
through the night as the cool pool remains over WA and ID tonight
and conditions are unstable, but for the most part showers are
over. Earlier model of the NAM was showing the potential of a
Palouse Creeper (fog moving up the Palouse into Spokane County),
but the latest NAM has backed off on that idea, they keep the
boundary layer winds from the north a bit longer and winds will be
quite light. There could be some patches of shallow fog towards
morning from the recent showers, but the fog shouldn`t last long
and will quickly dissipate as the sun rises. Expect dry
conditions, clearing skies and warming temperatures Sunday.
/Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Dry with VFR conditions for at least the next 24 hours.
Where recent showers occurred may see some patchy shallow fog
around sunrise. Not confident enough to put cigs in any TAFS, but
the best potential is for KGEG, KSFF and KPUW and outlying areas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  30  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  10   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  10  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 260325
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WITH A THREAT OF RAIN MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY FOR A WARMER
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS ONSHORE TUESDAY FOR
ANOTHER THREAT OF RAIN AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE SUN SETTING...THE LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN
SW WASHINGTON HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF ALONG WITH DISSIPATING CLOUDS.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE CLEARING YET COOL NIGHT
AHEAD.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE HAD MOVED INSIDE 135W
AND THE SHORT TERM PROGS BRING THE AXIS INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT HAS CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS.
YET WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE. SO THE FORECAST OF INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY FROM THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WESTWARD
LOOKS ON TRACK. THE 00Z NAM CONCURS.

THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PROMISES MORE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE WITH
WARMER TEMPS MONDAY...THOUGH SHORT-LIVED. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
SPINNING OUT OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH POSITION NEAR 155W IS EXPECTED
TO SWING ONSHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS WITH A HEALTHY ONSHORE PUSH. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINED LOW. THE MODELS WERE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS WED AND THU WERE CONCERNED...AND
INDICATED AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES WERE IN THE DETAILS. BEYOND THU...THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGED IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST WAS...MORE OR LESS...BROADBRUSHED.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL DISSIPATE
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPORARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING. WEAKENING FRONT REACHING THE COAST LATE
IN THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS STABLE.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED QUICKLY
THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE FOG PRONE AREAS LIKE OLYMPIA. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5000-8000
FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE INTERIOR
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 4000 FEET
WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MID MORNING WITH
CEILINGS SLOWLY LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY 00Z MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...FLAT SURFACE GRADIENTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND SOUTHERLIES WILL PICK UP OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MID TO HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND WATERS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SHARPLY SWITCHING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NWLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG WESTERLY PUSH IS LIKELY IN THE STRAIT
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. FELTON/JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 260325
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WITH A THREAT OF RAIN MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY FOR A WARMER
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS ONSHORE TUESDAY FOR
ANOTHER THREAT OF RAIN AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE SUN SETTING...THE LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN
SW WASHINGTON HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF ALONG WITH DISSIPATING CLOUDS.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE CLEARING YET COOL NIGHT
AHEAD.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE HAD MOVED INSIDE 135W
AND THE SHORT TERM PROGS BRING THE AXIS INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT HAS CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS.
YET WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE. SO THE FORECAST OF INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY FROM THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WESTWARD
LOOKS ON TRACK. THE 00Z NAM CONCURS.

THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PROMISES MORE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE WITH
WARMER TEMPS MONDAY...THOUGH SHORT-LIVED. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
SPINNING OUT OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH POSITION NEAR 155W IS EXPECTED
TO SWING ONSHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS WITH A HEALTHY ONSHORE PUSH. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINED LOW. THE MODELS WERE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS WED AND THU WERE CONCERNED...AND
INDICATED AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES WERE IN THE DETAILS. BEYOND THU...THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGED IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST WAS...MORE OR LESS...BROADBRUSHED.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL DISSIPATE
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPORARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING. WEAKENING FRONT REACHING THE COAST LATE
IN THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS STABLE.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED QUICKLY
THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE FOG PRONE AREAS LIKE OLYMPIA. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5000-8000
FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE INTERIOR
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 4000 FEET
WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MID MORNING WITH
CEILINGS SLOWLY LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY 00Z MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...FLAT SURFACE GRADIENTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND SOUTHERLIES WILL PICK UP OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MID TO HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND WATERS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SHARPLY SWITCHING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NWLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG WESTERLY PUSH IS LIKELY IN THE STRAIT
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. FELTON/JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 260325
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WITH A THREAT OF RAIN MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY FOR A WARMER
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS ONSHORE TUESDAY FOR
ANOTHER THREAT OF RAIN AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE SUN SETTING...THE LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN
SW WASHINGTON HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF ALONG WITH DISSIPATING CLOUDS.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE CLEARING YET COOL NIGHT
AHEAD.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE HAD MOVED INSIDE 135W
AND THE SHORT TERM PROGS BRING THE AXIS INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT HAS CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS.
YET WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE. SO THE FORECAST OF INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY FROM THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WESTWARD
LOOKS ON TRACK. THE 00Z NAM CONCURS.

THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PROMISES MORE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE WITH
WARMER TEMPS MONDAY...THOUGH SHORT-LIVED. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
SPINNING OUT OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH POSITION NEAR 155W IS EXPECTED
TO SWING ONSHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS WITH A HEALTHY ONSHORE PUSH. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINED LOW. THE MODELS WERE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS WED AND THU WERE CONCERNED...AND
INDICATED AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES WERE IN THE DETAILS. BEYOND THU...THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGED IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST WAS...MORE OR LESS...BROADBRUSHED.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL DISSIPATE
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPORARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING. WEAKENING FRONT REACHING THE COAST LATE
IN THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS STABLE.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED QUICKLY
THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE FOG PRONE AREAS LIKE OLYMPIA. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5000-8000
FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE INTERIOR
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 4000 FEET
WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MID MORNING WITH
CEILINGS SLOWLY LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY 00Z MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...FLAT SURFACE GRADIENTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND SOUTHERLIES WILL PICK UP OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MID TO HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND WATERS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SHARPLY SWITCHING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NWLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG WESTERLY PUSH IS LIKELY IN THE STRAIT
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. FELTON/JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KPQR 260310
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
810 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST FEW DAYS IS MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOK FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY THE COAST
BUT POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PORTLAND. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE DID GET ISOLATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA MAINLY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD...AND FROM ABOUT LINN COUNTY NORTHWARD. DID GET
ONE REPORT OF THUNDER NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN PORTLAND OTHERWISE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON... EXPECT THE LAST
REMAINING SHOWERS TO FINISH SETTLING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN
COMBINATION WITH LOSING OUR DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR PARTIAL CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. BUT THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED IN MANY AREAS INTO THE
30S...SO LOOK FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S
EARLY SUNDAY.

THE MODELS STILL SAY A WARM FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND INLAND SPREAD OF THE LIGHT RAIN. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT REACH THE COAST BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD
INLAND MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR COAST. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY
FROM THOSE TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING FOR DRYING...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
CHANCE OF GETTING CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN IN SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY... FASTER
THAN THE MODELS JUST 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO. SNOW LEVELS WILL APPROACH
PASS ELEVATIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK LIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST.
IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE COAST AND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF QPF
FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS
FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/.
NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA COMING OFF
THE N OREGON COAST RANGE INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO A FEW
OTHERS IN THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THESE SHOWERS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 17Z SUN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST SUN AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...ISOLATED CELL JUST S OF THE TERMINAL AND MOVING
SE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BKN-OVC CIGS AS OF 03Z WILL BECOME A SCT
LAYER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING
AROUND THE OPS AREA AFT 10Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. EXPECT
AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THESE
PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
AM. WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
S WIND INCREASES LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS TO BE
IN THE OUTER NRN WATERS. WIND WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N THROUGH THE WASHINGTON WATERS.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST
MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND IS
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

SEAS REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME
MIXED SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 5 TO 6 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260310
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
810 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST FEW DAYS IS MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOK FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY THE COAST
BUT POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PORTLAND. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE DID GET ISOLATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA MAINLY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD...AND FROM ABOUT LINN COUNTY NORTHWARD. DID GET
ONE REPORT OF THUNDER NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN PORTLAND OTHERWISE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON... EXPECT THE LAST
REMAINING SHOWERS TO FINISH SETTLING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN
COMBINATION WITH LOSING OUR DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR PARTIAL CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. BUT THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED IN MANY AREAS INTO THE
30S...SO LOOK FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S
EARLY SUNDAY.

THE MODELS STILL SAY A WARM FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND INLAND SPREAD OF THE LIGHT RAIN. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT REACH THE COAST BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD
INLAND MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR COAST. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY
FROM THOSE TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING FOR DRYING...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
CHANCE OF GETTING CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN IN SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY... FASTER
THAN THE MODELS JUST 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO. SNOW LEVELS WILL APPROACH
PASS ELEVATIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK LIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST.
IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE COAST AND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF QPF
FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS
FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/.
NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA COMING OFF
THE N OREGON COAST RANGE INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO A FEW
OTHERS IN THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THESE SHOWERS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 17Z SUN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST SUN AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...ISOLATED CELL JUST S OF THE TERMINAL AND MOVING
SE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BKN-OVC CIGS AS OF 03Z WILL BECOME A SCT
LAYER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING
AROUND THE OPS AREA AFT 10Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. EXPECT
AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THESE
PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
AM. WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
S WIND INCREASES LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS TO BE
IN THE OUTER NRN WATERS. WIND WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N THROUGH THE WASHINGTON WATERS.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST
MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND IS
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

SEAS REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME
MIXED SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 5 TO 6 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260310
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
810 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST FEW DAYS IS MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOK FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY THE COAST
BUT POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PORTLAND. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE DID GET ISOLATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA MAINLY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD...AND FROM ABOUT LINN COUNTY NORTHWARD. DID GET
ONE REPORT OF THUNDER NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN PORTLAND OTHERWISE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON... EXPECT THE LAST
REMAINING SHOWERS TO FINISH SETTLING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN
COMBINATION WITH LOSING OUR DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR PARTIAL CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. BUT THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED IN MANY AREAS INTO THE
30S...SO LOOK FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S
EARLY SUNDAY.

THE MODELS STILL SAY A WARM FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND INLAND SPREAD OF THE LIGHT RAIN. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT REACH THE COAST BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD
INLAND MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR COAST. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY
FROM THOSE TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING FOR DRYING...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
CHANCE OF GETTING CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN IN SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY... FASTER
THAN THE MODELS JUST 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO. SNOW LEVELS WILL APPROACH
PASS ELEVATIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK LIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST.
IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE COAST AND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF QPF
FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS
FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/.
NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA COMING OFF
THE N OREGON COAST RANGE INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO A FEW
OTHERS IN THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THESE SHOWERS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 17Z SUN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST SUN AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...ISOLATED CELL JUST S OF THE TERMINAL AND MOVING
SE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BKN-OVC CIGS AS OF 03Z WILL BECOME A SCT
LAYER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING
AROUND THE OPS AREA AFT 10Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. EXPECT
AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THESE
PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
AM. WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
S WIND INCREASES LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS TO BE
IN THE OUTER NRN WATERS. WIND WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N THROUGH THE WASHINGTON WATERS.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST
MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND IS
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

SEAS REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME
MIXED SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 5 TO 6 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260310
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
810 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST FEW DAYS IS MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOK FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY THE COAST
BUT POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PORTLAND. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE DID GET ISOLATED
CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA MAINLY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD...AND FROM ABOUT LINN COUNTY NORTHWARD. DID GET
ONE REPORT OF THUNDER NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN PORTLAND OTHERWISE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON... EXPECT THE LAST
REMAINING SHOWERS TO FINISH SETTLING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN
COMBINATION WITH LOSING OUR DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR PARTIAL CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. BUT THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED IN MANY AREAS INTO THE
30S...SO LOOK FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S
EARLY SUNDAY.

THE MODELS STILL SAY A WARM FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND INLAND SPREAD OF THE LIGHT RAIN. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT REACH THE COAST BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD
INLAND MAINLY NORTH OF SALEM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR COAST. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY
FROM THOSE TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING FOR DRYING...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
CHANCE OF GETTING CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN IN SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY... FASTER
THAN THE MODELS JUST 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO. SNOW LEVELS WILL APPROACH
PASS ELEVATIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK LIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST.
IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE COAST AND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF QPF
FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS
FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/.
NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA COMING OFF
THE N OREGON COAST RANGE INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO A FEW
OTHERS IN THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THESE SHOWERS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 17Z SUN ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST SUN AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...ISOLATED CELL JUST S OF THE TERMINAL AND MOVING
SE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BKN-OVC CIGS AS OF 03Z WILL BECOME A SCT
LAYER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH GIVES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING
AROUND THE OPS AREA AFT 10Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. EXPECT
AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THESE
PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
AM. WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
S WIND INCREASES LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS TO BE
IN THE OUTER NRN WATERS. WIND WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N THROUGH THE WASHINGTON WATERS.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE FCST
MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND IS
CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

SEAS REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIKELY TO SEE SOME
MIXED SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN OUTER WATERS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND WAVES REACHING 5 TO 6 FT OUT OF THE S-SW AND A WEST LONGER
PERIOD FRESH SWELL. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260020
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
520 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of scattered showers
through the early evening, before the threat wanes and shifts
toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 02 to 03Z. Some isolated
thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of any passing a TAF
sites is too low to mention in a TAF. The main threat in showers
will be brief downpours, small hail/graupel, but brief gusty
winds are possible. Overnight into Sunday morning will be mainly
dry with VFR conditions, though there is some small risk for low
clouds/patchy fog in the outlying areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260020
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
520 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of scattered showers
through the early evening, before the threat wanes and shifts
toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 02 to 03Z. Some isolated
thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of any passing a TAF
sites is too low to mention in a TAF. The main threat in showers
will be brief downpours, small hail/graupel, but brief gusty
winds are possible. Overnight into Sunday morning will be mainly
dry with VFR conditions, though there is some small risk for low
clouds/patchy fog in the outlying areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260020
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
520 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of scattered showers
through the early evening, before the threat wanes and shifts
toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 02 to 03Z. Some isolated
thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of any passing a TAF
sites is too low to mention in a TAF. The main threat in showers
will be brief downpours, small hail/graupel, but brief gusty
winds are possible. Overnight into Sunday morning will be mainly
dry with VFR conditions, though there is some small risk for low
clouds/patchy fog in the outlying areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260020
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
520 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of scattered showers
through the early evening, before the threat wanes and shifts
toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 02 to 03Z. Some isolated
thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of any passing a TAF
sites is too low to mention in a TAF. The main threat in showers
will be brief downpours, small hail/graupel, but brief gusty
winds are possible. Overnight into Sunday morning will be mainly
dry with VFR conditions, though there is some small risk for low
clouds/patchy fog in the outlying areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260020
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
520 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of scattered showers
through the early evening, before the threat wanes and shifts
toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 02 to 03Z. Some isolated
thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of any passing a TAF
sites is too low to mention in a TAF. The main threat in showers
will be brief downpours, small hail/graupel, but brief gusty
winds are possible. Overnight into Sunday morning will be mainly
dry with VFR conditions, though there is some small risk for low
clouds/patchy fog in the outlying areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260020
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
520 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of scattered showers
through the early evening, before the threat wanes and shifts
toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 02 to 03Z. Some isolated
thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of any passing a TAF
sites is too low to mention in a TAF. The main threat in showers
will be brief downpours, small hail/graupel, but brief gusty
winds are possible. Overnight into Sunday morning will be mainly
dry with VFR conditions, though there is some small risk for low
clouds/patchy fog in the outlying areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KSEW 252241 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
341 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED THE INCLUDE THE AVIATION AND MARINE SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT INCLEMENT
WEATHER. ANTICIPATE A WARM FRONT TO BRING A THREAT OF RAIN TO THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. A COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF
THE SHOWERS WERE HEAVY AND CONTAINED SMALL HAIL. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. SO FAR...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES
BUT THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A TSTM OVER MAINLY THE
CASCADES BETWEEN NOW AND DUSK.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE TO FOLLOW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...HOWEVER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ON MON WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP THREAT TO
BECOME SHUNTED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...
EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

LOOK FOR AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINED LOW. THE MODELS WERE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS WED AND THU WERE CONCERNED...AND
INDICATED AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES WERE IN THE DETAILS. BEYOND THU...THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGED IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST WAS...MORE OR LESS...BROADBRUSHED.

&&

.AVIATION...THE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT
WILL STABILIZE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING
NORTHERLY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AREAS SOUTH OF SEATTLE ARE MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE FOG
FORMING AT OLM AND HQM. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND RAIN IS
LIKELY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING SUNDAY EVENING.

KSEA...NWLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 6Z...THERE IS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z. SHOWERS NEAR THE
TERMINAL WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT...SO I WENT WITH AN ADVISORY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND SOUTHERLIES WILL PICK UP OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MID TO HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND WATERS EXPOSED TO A
SOUTHERLY FETCH...HOWEVER HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCAS FOR ANY
INLAND WATERS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL SPEED THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SHARPLY SWITCHING FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NWLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG WESTERLY PUSH IS LIKELY
IN THE STRAIT WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 252241 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
341 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED THE INCLUDE THE AVIATION AND MARINE SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT INCLEMENT
WEATHER. ANTICIPATE A WARM FRONT TO BRING A THREAT OF RAIN TO THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. A COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF
THE SHOWERS WERE HEAVY AND CONTAINED SMALL HAIL. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. SO FAR...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES
BUT THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A TSTM OVER MAINLY THE
CASCADES BETWEEN NOW AND DUSK.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE TO FOLLOW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...HOWEVER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ON MON WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP THREAT TO
BECOME SHUNTED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...
EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

LOOK FOR AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINED LOW. THE MODELS WERE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS WED AND THU WERE CONCERNED...AND
INDICATED AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES WERE IN THE DETAILS. BEYOND THU...THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGED IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST WAS...MORE OR LESS...BROADBRUSHED.

&&

.AVIATION...THE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT
WILL STABILIZE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING
NORTHERLY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AREAS SOUTH OF SEATTLE ARE MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE FOG
FORMING AT OLM AND HQM. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND RAIN IS
LIKELY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING SUNDAY EVENING.

KSEA...NWLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 6Z...THERE IS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z. SHOWERS NEAR THE
TERMINAL WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT...SO I WENT WITH AN ADVISORY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND SOUTHERLIES WILL PICK UP OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MID TO HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND WATERS EXPOSED TO A
SOUTHERLY FETCH...HOWEVER HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCAS FOR ANY
INLAND WATERS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL SPEED THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SHARPLY SWITCHING FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NWLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG WESTERLY PUSH IS LIKELY
IN THE STRAIT WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 252230
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT INCLEMENT
WEATHER. ANTICIPATE A WARM FRONT TO BRING A THREAT OF RAIN TO THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. A COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF
THE SHOWERS WERE HEAVY AND CONTAINED SMALL HAIL. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. SO FAR...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES
BUT THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A TSTM OVER MAINLY THE
CASCADES BETWEEN NOW AND DUSK.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE TO FOLLOW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE
WILL APPROACH THE ARE DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...HOWEVER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ON MON WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP THREAT TO
BECOME SHUNTED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...
EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

LOOK FOR AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINED LOW. THE MODELS WERE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS WED AND THU WERE CONCERNED...AND
INDICATED AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES WERE IN THE DETAILS. BEYOND THU...THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGED IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN UPPER TROF
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST WAS...MORE OR LESS...BROADBRUSHED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 252230
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT INCLEMENT
WEATHER. ANTICIPATE A WARM FRONT TO BRING A THREAT OF RAIN TO THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. A COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF
THE SHOWERS WERE HEAVY AND CONTAINED SMALL HAIL. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. SO FAR...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES
BUT THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A TSTM OVER MAINLY THE
CASCADES BETWEEN NOW AND DUSK.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON BY LATE TODAY. EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE TO FOLLOW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE
WILL APPROACH THE ARE DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...HOWEVER WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ON MON WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP THREAT TO
BECOME SHUNTED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...
EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

LOOK FOR AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL ON TUE.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINED LOW. THE MODELS WERE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS WED AND THU WERE CONCERNED...AND
INDICATED AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES WERE IN THE DETAILS. BEYOND THU...THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGED IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN UPPER TROF
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST WAS...MORE OR LESS...BROADBRUSHED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 252148
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of isolated to
scattered showers this afternoon and evening, before the threat
wanes and shifts toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 01 to
03Z. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of
any passing a TAF sites is too low to mention in a TAF. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible over GEG to COE, and possibly PUW, area.
The main threat in showers will be brief downpours, small
hail/grapel, but brief gusty winds are possible. Overnight into
Sunday morning will be mainly dry with VFR conditions, though
there is some small risk for low clouds/patchy fog in the outlying
areas. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 252148
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of isolated to
scattered showers this afternoon and evening, before the threat
wanes and shifts toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 01 to
03Z. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of
any passing a TAF sites is too low to mention in a TAF. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible over GEG to COE, and possibly PUW, area.
The main threat in showers will be brief downpours, small
hail/grapel, but brief gusty winds are possible. Overnight into
Sunday morning will be mainly dry with VFR conditions, though
there is some small risk for low clouds/patchy fog in the outlying
areas. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 252148
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of isolated to
scattered showers this afternoon and evening, before the threat
wanes and shifts toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 01 to
03Z. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of
any passing a TAF sites is too low to mention in a TAF. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible over GEG to COE, and possibly PUW, area.
The main threat in showers will be brief downpours, small
hail/grapel, but brief gusty winds are possible. Overnight into
Sunday morning will be mainly dry with VFR conditions, though
there is some small risk for low clouds/patchy fog in the outlying
areas. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 252148
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of isolated to
scattered showers this afternoon and evening, before the threat
wanes and shifts toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 01 to
03Z. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of
any passing a TAF sites is too low to mention in a TAF. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible over GEG to COE, and possibly PUW, area.
The main threat in showers will be brief downpours, small
hail/grapel, but brief gusty winds are possible. Overnight into
Sunday morning will be mainly dry with VFR conditions, though
there is some small risk for low clouds/patchy fog in the outlying
areas. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 252148
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery, cool conditions will linger through this evening, as an
upper low edges across the Inland Northwest. This will be followed
by high pressure, with warmer temperatures and mostly dry
conditions, for the beginning of next week. The threat for showers
will increase beginning late Tuesday, lasting through the end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: Showers associated with an upper
low dissipate tonight, followed by high pressure and mostly dry
weather Sunday. This afternoon the upper low was centered over the
northern Cascades. This evening that low moves into the Columbia
Basin, stretches southeast and weakens overnight, and shifts
across north Idaho into western Montana through Sunday. Showers
will continue to be a threat early this evening under the cold
pool and instability with the upper low. These will be most
numerous within the deformation axis across across northeast WA
and north ID before 8 PM, before a ridge of high pressure and mid-
level warming starts in from the west. These showers may contain a
mix of rain, snow and graupel/small hail, along with brief gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the showers too, but
the risk will be limited. By the overnight the main shower chances
will be across the ID Panhandle and near the Canadian border in
the deformation axis, while the rest of the area will see decreasing
clouds. By Sunday the region will come more under the influence of
the upper ridge. However the mid-level trough axis and northwest
flow will be close enough to keep an isolated shower threat alive
across the northeast WA and north ID mountain zones. By and large,
however, the day will be dry. Sunday night a warm front lifts in
with the building ridge. This will mainly bring some high clouds
to the region. The Cascades, however, will be brushed by some
deeper moisture and threat of showers again. /J. Cote`

Monday through Friday...The week will begin on a dry and warm note
as strong upper level ridging builds over the Inland NW. The
ridge will push a weak atmospheric river northward into extreme NW
Washington and SW BC. The big question with this pattern whether
or not precipitation from this river will intercept the far
northern Cascades. Whereas the latest NAM and previous GFS runs
said that would be the case the majority opinion is no. The axis
of atmospheric river is expected to get pivoted more north-south
as the next trough moves off the Washington coast. By Tuesday
models are coming into better agreement that the offshore trough
will weaken and push into SW BC by midday and toward the BC/AB
border by late in the afternoon. The main impact of this passing
trough will be the push of a cold front through the
region...beginning in the Cascades late in the day and moving into
the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Model cross-sections
suggest the moisture along the front will not be sufficiently deep
to produce precipitation as it track through the area. We suspect
most of the precipitation threat will be reserved for locations
near the Cascades Crest late Tuesday afternoon shifting over SE
Washington and the Panhandle by Tuesday night and Wednesday. While
the precipitation won`t be necessarily widespread, the winds
behind the front will be. 850 mb winds peak around 20-30 MPH with
the passing front and suspect we will see the possibility of some
of these winds reaching the ground as the front moves through. The
timing of the front makes the Tuesday afternoon high temperature
forecast somewhat difficult as the thermal ridge will shift from
the Cascades on Monday and into western Montana by Tuesday. This
passage is faster than advertised by previous runs and suggests it
may not get as warm as previously thought. Even so most high
temperatures will reach the 70s which is well above normal for
this time of year.

From Wednesday and beyond the forecast details get quite uncertain
as there are many significant model differences. These
differences all revolve around the next trough moving toward the
coast. All the models show this as being a deeper trough than the
Tuesday afternoon/night system however the speed at which this
moves in is questionable. The previous ECMWF brought the trough in
on Wednesday while the GFS and Canadian are much slower. If the EC
is correct we`d see another potentially wet day for parts of the
region. While the other models would give us a dry day. Thursday
would seem to be the most likely day for the trough to move
inland. The pattern is somewhat similar to what we are seeing
today however its somewhat warmer and less conducive to graupel
showers. If things pan out like the GFS suggests we`d see a small
shot of thunderstorms as well. By Friday most of the models take
the trough to the east with moist zonal or westerly flow moving
in. Confidence on rainy days is now, however we are confident the
weather should be significantly cooler than the first couple days
of the week. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper low will bring a threat of isolated to
scattered showers this afternoon and evening, before the threat
wanes and shifts toward the mainly the ID Panhandle after 01 to
03Z. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible, but the risk of
any passing a TAF sites is too low to mention in a TAF. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible over GEG to COE, and possibly PUW, area.
The main threat in showers will be brief downpours, small
hail/grapel, but brief gusty winds are possible. Overnight into
Sunday morning will be mainly dry with VFR conditions, though
there is some small risk for low clouds/patchy fog in the outlying
areas. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  59  39  67  45  74 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  59  35  67  41  73 /  60  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        33  57  35  67  43  71 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       39  63  40  72  45  79 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  62  36  70  41  75 /  60  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      33  58  32  66  36  72 /  60  20  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        36  56  35  66  40  71 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  64  40  72  45  76 /  20   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      40  66  45  73  48  72 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           32  65  39  72  42  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252135
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
234 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVE EAST BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A SWIFT END TO
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MAINLY CLIP THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AND
MUCH WARMER AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LESS
THAN STELLAR IN STRENGTH THUS FAR TODAY. COVERAGE HAS MET
EXPECTATIONS THOUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY
PRODUCING A QUICK TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS.
AM NOT READY TO COMPLETELY GIVE UP ON A THUNDER THREAT FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT HAVE CERTAINLY LOST MOST OF THE EXCITEMENT BUILT OVER
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE LEADING
UPPER EDGE OF THE ENCROACHING WARM FRONT ABOUT TO CROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE COLUMBIA. THIS IS FURTHER INDICATION THAT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
IS BECOMING DOMINANT. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDED CONFIDENCE...THE SPC STORM SCALE
ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY MEMBERS BACK THIS NOTION UP AND GENERALLY
CEASE ALL SHOWERS EVEN OVER THE CASCADES BY ABOUT 8 PM.

THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT APPEAR TO STAY
OFFSHORE ENOUGH TO GIVE DECENT CLEARING FOR A LARGE PART OF THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INCLUDING THE COAST. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS SO
DIDN`T SEE A NEED TO LOWER THE LOWS.

SUNDAY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE CWA AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHUNT THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT EVER SO GRADUALLY FURTHER NORTH.
STILL MAINTAINED AROUND A 30 PCT POP FOR THE COAST RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ABOUT A 60 PCT FOR THE NORTH COAST SUNDAY EVENING BUT
FEEL LIKE THIS IS A CASE WHERE ITS BETTER TO SAY THERE IS A 70 PCT
AND 40 PCT CHANCE RESPECTIVELY IT WILL NOT RAIN TOMORROW. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FOLLOWING SHIFTS LOWER POPS YET FURTHER BASED ON
LATER MODEL RUNS. CLEARING SKIES WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSITORY WITH
SEVERAL MODELS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT NOW SHOWING A TROUGH PUSHING DOWN
THE RIDGE WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST
BY 12Z/5AM TUESDAY. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE IN THE
DOWNSTREAM H500 PATTERN IMPLIES THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR TO OUR
EAST TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. THE PARENT LOW CENTER OF
THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND QUICKLY
SWING THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ABOVE 8000 FEET AND ONLY
DROP TOWARD 6000 FEET OR SO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEY DO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 3500 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT CASCADE SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THE
OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGER EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
MARKED BY A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WEST. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL
FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE
COAST AND VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN
AND ECMWF QPF FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/. NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
TREND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. SHOWERS DECREASING
THIS EVENING...THEN SHOULD BE DRY AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...AND COOL AIR MASS WITH WET
GROUND...WILL SEE PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG AND IFR STRATUS FORM
LATER TONIGHT. NEXT FRONT OFFSHORE WILL ARRIVE LATER SUN...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING AROUND
THE OPS AREA AFT 08Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT YET ON HOW
LONG THESE PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND SUN AM.                                    ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE. W TO NW WINDS UNDER 15 KT WITH
SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
WILL HAVE PERIOD OF GUSTY S WINDS SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH TO POP GUSTS TO 25 KT. WILL ISSUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON ALL WATERS FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL
PUSH BACK UP A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 FT.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
IN THE FCST MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                     ROCKPYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS FOR SUN AFTERNOON
        THROUGH SUN EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 252135
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
234 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVE EAST BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A SWIFT END TO
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MAINLY CLIP THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AND
MUCH WARMER AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LESS
THAN STELLAR IN STRENGTH THUS FAR TODAY. COVERAGE HAS MET
EXPECTATIONS THOUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY
PRODUCING A QUICK TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS.
AM NOT READY TO COMPLETELY GIVE UP ON A THUNDER THREAT FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT HAVE CERTAINLY LOST MOST OF THE EXCITEMENT BUILT OVER
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE LEADING
UPPER EDGE OF THE ENCROACHING WARM FRONT ABOUT TO CROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE COLUMBIA. THIS IS FURTHER INDICATION THAT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
IS BECOMING DOMINANT. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDED CONFIDENCE...THE SPC STORM SCALE
ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY MEMBERS BACK THIS NOTION UP AND GENERALLY
CEASE ALL SHOWERS EVEN OVER THE CASCADES BY ABOUT 8 PM.

THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT APPEAR TO STAY
OFFSHORE ENOUGH TO GIVE DECENT CLEARING FOR A LARGE PART OF THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INCLUDING THE COAST. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS SO
DIDN`T SEE A NEED TO LOWER THE LOWS.

SUNDAY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE CWA AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHUNT THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT EVER SO GRADUALLY FURTHER NORTH.
STILL MAINTAINED AROUND A 30 PCT POP FOR THE COAST RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ABOUT A 60 PCT FOR THE NORTH COAST SUNDAY EVENING BUT
FEEL LIKE THIS IS A CASE WHERE ITS BETTER TO SAY THERE IS A 70 PCT
AND 40 PCT CHANCE RESPECTIVELY IT WILL NOT RAIN TOMORROW. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FOLLOWING SHIFTS LOWER POPS YET FURTHER BASED ON
LATER MODEL RUNS. CLEARING SKIES WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSITORY WITH
SEVERAL MODELS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT NOW SHOWING A TROUGH PUSHING DOWN
THE RIDGE WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST
BY 12Z/5AM TUESDAY. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE IN THE
DOWNSTREAM H500 PATTERN IMPLIES THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR TO OUR
EAST TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. THE PARENT LOW CENTER OF
THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND QUICKLY
SWING THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ABOVE 8000 FEET AND ONLY
DROP TOWARD 6000 FEET OR SO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEY DO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 3500 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT CASCADE SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THE
OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGER EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THESE WILL BE
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE CASCADES BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
MARKED BY A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A MEAN TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WEST. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT SIGNIFICANT VARIATION AMONG OPERATIONAL
FORECAST MODELS...AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS...DRYING OUT THE
COAST AND VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GEFS MEAN
AND ECMWF QPF FORECASTS SEEM TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THOUGH PERHAPS FOR DIFFERENT REASONS /TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
VS. FRONTAL PASSAGE/. NONETHELESS...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND STILL CREATE SOME CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
TREND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. SHOWERS DECREASING
THIS EVENING...THEN SHOULD BE DRY AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...AND COOL AIR MASS WITH WET
GROUND...WILL SEE PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG AND IFR STRATUS FORM
LATER TONIGHT. NEXT FRONT OFFSHORE WILL ARRIVE LATER SUN...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMING AROUND
THE OPS AREA AFT 08Z...ESPECIALLY TO W AND N OF KPDX. WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL IFR CLOUDS INTO SUN AM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT YET ON HOW
LONG THESE PERSIST DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND SUN AM.                                    ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE. W TO NW WINDS UNDER 15 KT WITH
SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE WATERS SUN.
WILL HAVE PERIOD OF GUSTY S WINDS SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH TO POP GUSTS TO 25 KT. WILL ISSUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON ALL WATERS FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL
PUSH BACK UP A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 FT.

ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT OR TUE. FRONT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
IN THE FCST MODELS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS IS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                     ROCKPYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS FOR SUN AFTERNOON
        THROUGH SUN EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




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