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000
FXUS66 KPQR 231006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS
OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY INLAND. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS WITH A BIT OF CONSISTENT
LIGHTNING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE TODAY FOR
MORE SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO A THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE MODELS SHOW A NEW
LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THEN
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY
AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MORE RAIN
WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN THE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. A WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SO CASCADE PASSES MAY SEE SOME SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH MUCH
LESS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z EURO IN THE UPPER LEVELS
STARTING MIDWEEK. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WITH THE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO SW OREGON THIS MORNING
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE SHOWERS ESP
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
FRI WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO
JUST UNDER 10 FT BY FRI.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHE BOTH THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...A DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE SW FRI NIGHT...AND MOVE NE UP OFF THE OREGON COAST
SAT...AND INLAND OVER NW WA SAT NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN STORM FORCE
GUSTS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS BUILDING
AS HIGH AS 20 FT. A COASTAL JET WOULD LIKELY ENHANCE NEARSHORE
WINDS SAT EVENING.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



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000
FXUS66 KOTX 230958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...The occluded front and atmospheric river which
impacted much of the Inland Northwest has now shifted into
extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Widespread
precipitation continues to fall along and ahead of the
front...while drier air has infiltrated areas west of the
front...with the precipitation turning increasingly showery. Thus
far most of the post-frontal showers have occurred near the
Cascade Crest and points westward. This was due to the presence of
the drier air combined with increased westerly mid-level flow over
the Cascades. This trend will likely continue through much of the
morning...with the drier air spreading slowly eastward. So for the
morning...the most widespread precipitation is expected to fall
either near the crest or over southern half of the Idaho Panhandle
and adjacent portions of southeast Washington.

Precipitation chances will increase once again during the afternoon.
This is in response to a weak shortwave trough forming just east
of 45n/130w. All model guidance depicts the current location of
this feature...and most take it over the Cascades by midday and
across the remainder of the forecast area during the afternoon.
Although this feature won`t have the deep moisture to work with as
the atmospheric river continues to sag south...it will feast off a
rapidly destabilizing atmosphere.. 500 mb temperatures ahead of
the feature will fall anywhere from 3-5c vs yesterday while the
low-level temperatures actually warm. This results in lifted index
values dropping below zero near the Cascades...as well as near the
Canadian border...most of the Idaho Panhandle and extreme eastern
Washington. MUCAPE values also rise into the 300-700 j/kg range.
Although these values aren`t terribly impressive by
themselves...model soundings suggest there will be a potential for
thunderstorms with equilibrium level temperatures at -20c or
colder. Since this is a borderline case...we don`t necessarily
expect widespread thunder...but certainly enough to warrant
throwing in the forecast. Precipitation amounts should be
generally light compared to yesterday...but the rain rates could
be considerably higher. Storms which form will likely move rapidly
northeast and could result in gusty winds to 30-40 mph.

The weather will settle down tonight as the shortwave trough pushes
east of the forecast area...and drier and more stable air
overtakes the region. Skies will generally undergo a clearing
trend...and valley fog will become an issue overnight...especially
for the northern valleys where winds are expected to remain the
lightest. fx

Fri through Sunday: No big changes for Fri and Fri Nt as the
slow-moving warm front doesn`t move north across Ern Wa until
Sat morning. Southeast flow/downslope off the Palouse should help
to keep rainfall amnts light for SE Wa and the Idaho Panhandle.
The areal coverage of the heaviest pcpn remains unchanged and
limited to a zone of upslope and modest isentropic ascent north
of a line from Moses Lake to Colville. Much of our focus has been
on the weekend fcst as the upper trough and strong sfc cyclone
lifts NE along the Pac Nw coast Sat. Model guidance is in better
agreement with the track of this low, with an overall slower
passage of the upper trough. This slower timing should allow much
of Ern Wa and N Idaho to remain dry and mild with well above
normal high temps within a northward-surging 850mb thermal ridge
of 10c-15c for SE Wa. Once fropa occurs Sat Nt, the pressure
gradient remains very tight as the deep sfc low moves into BC. We
should see 850mb winds of 40-50kts Sat Nt and Sunday as the post-
frontal dry slot axis moves across the Columbia Basin. If this
pattern remains unchanged, we`ll likely see very gusty winds Sat
Nt and Sunday that would easily reach wind advsy criteria with
gusts at or above 45 mph. Though snow levels lower Sat Nt and
Sunday potentially to 4500 ft for all mtn zones bordering BC,
significant accumulations are not expected. bz

Monday through Wednesday: The Southwest flow pattern will continue
to push waves of moisture and instability across the region during
this period. The models are in fairly good agreement on the track
and moisture associated with these waves. The wave on Monday is
trending drier than the wave on Tuesday. Warmer temperatures
associated with this pattern will keep the precip to mainly rain
with a chance of a few snowflakes in the higher elevations of the
Cascades. The entire Inland Northwest is expected to receive some
precip with the weakest chances on the East side of the Cascades.
Temperatures will be on the warming trend with highs starting
around low 50s and ending near 60. The lows will range from mid
30s to mid 40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A trailing occluded front will sweep through the region
overnight with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings through
20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty winds will
help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. Scattered showers
will develop across the higher terrain surrounding the basin
during the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
north of the KGEG-KCOE area and are not likely to affect any TAF
site. /EK




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 /  70  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 /  80  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  80  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 /  90  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  50  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  50  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230547
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1047 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist frontal boundary will produce heavy rain and high
elevation snow for the mountains and steady rain in the valleys
and basin tonight. Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue
through Thursday. A strong cold front will produce windy conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The pattern will continue to
be active into early next week. This includes the potential for
widespread rain into early next week, as moisture associated with
former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first round of precipitation is currently moving across extreme
eastern WA into north Idaho this evening. Regional radar mosaic
shows a broad band of steady precip moving north-northeast across
the region. It looks like all but the extreme southeast corner of
the forecast area will see some light rain from this feature. The
Lewis-Clark Valley and Camas Prairie may not get measurable precip
from this feature. PoPs and QPF were adjusted to account for a
quicker advancement of this warm frontal band. Some patchy fog was
added to the weather grids in response to reports of fog in the
Spokane and West Plains area. Webcams show that the problem area
could be the North Spokane area. Patchy fog was added to the
northeast valleys that are typically favorable to fog formation.
Winds were also bumped up across the Camas Prairie and into the
Lewiston area. The windy spots could see winds of 20 to 25 kts
with gusts to 40 kts. Solidly windy but still below advisory
criteria. The occluded front appears to be on track, just reaching
the Cascade crest as of 8pm. This feature has been dropping a
quick quarter inch or so as it moved inland across western WA. It
should pass through eastern WA by 12Z then across north ID by 18Z.
The entire forecast area should see a quick soaking as the front
passes through. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A trailing occluded front will sweep through the region
overnight with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings through
20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty winds will
help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. Scattered showers
will develop across the higher terrain surrounding the basin
during the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
north of the KGEG-KCOE area and are not likely to affect any TAF
site. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  59  43  57  44  63 / 100  50  50  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  58  41  57  41  64 / 100  70  50  10  20  20
Pullman        48  59  45  59  47  69 /  90  80  50  10  40  10
Lewiston       53  63  48  64  46  72 /  40  60  50  20  40  10
Colville       48  57  41  58  41  60 / 100  60  50  10  50  30
Sandpoint      44  55  38  56  38  60 / 100 100  70  20  30  20
Kellogg        46  54  41  53  42  62 /  90  80  80  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  64  43  61  45  63 /  90  20  10  10  40  20
Wenatchee      48  61  44  57  47  58 / 100  30  10  10  60  40
Omak           48  59  40  58  44  58 / 100  40  10  10  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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000
FXUS66 KSEW 230443
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIRECT SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH BLUSTERY WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFFSHORE...SENDING SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY WINDS...OLM-BLI WAS
+4MB AT 9PM. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 8AM
THU AND MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA THRU MIDDAY. THE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THU NITE. TEMPORARY RIDGING MOVES OVER WRN WA FRIDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FOR A DRY DAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THRU THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NITE AND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH WRN WA AND FILLS WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY SAT NITE.

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ON THE GFS IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STILL A WET ONE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT LESS WINDY. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE SKOKOMISH AT POTLATCH CRESTED AROUND 17.2
FEET AT NOON TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY RECEDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT OVER THE CASCADES AT 04Z WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST. AIR MASS UNSTABLE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

CEILINGS IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 2000
FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY EASING UP
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET IN SHOWERS OTHERWISE CEILINGS IN THE
4000-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
KNOTS UNTIL 06Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING. PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES TO THE
INLAND WATERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INLAND WATERS ON THURSDAY
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE INTO THE OREGON COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN HOW MUCH WIND DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. AT
THIS POINT GALE FORCE WINDS OR HIGHER ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS IN EFFECT
     FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
     THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INLAND WATERS AND ADMIRALTY
     INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 230443
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIRECT SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH BLUSTERY WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFFSHORE...SENDING SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY WINDS...OLM-BLI WAS
+4MB AT 9PM. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 8AM
THU AND MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA THRU MIDDAY. THE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THU NITE. TEMPORARY RIDGING MOVES OVER WRN WA FRIDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FOR A DRY DAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THRU THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NITE AND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH WRN WA AND FILLS WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY SAT NITE.

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ON THE GFS IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STILL A WET ONE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT LESS WINDY. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE SKOKOMISH AT POTLATCH CRESTED AROUND 17.2
FEET AT NOON TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY RECEDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT OVER THE CASCADES AT 04Z WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST. AIR MASS UNSTABLE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

CEILINGS IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 2000
FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY EASING UP
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET IN SHOWERS OTHERWISE CEILINGS IN THE
4000-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
KNOTS UNTIL 06Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING. PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES TO THE
INLAND WATERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INLAND WATERS ON THURSDAY
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE INTO THE OREGON COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN HOW MUCH WIND DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. AT
THIS POINT GALE FORCE WINDS OR HIGHER ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS IN EFFECT
     FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
     THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INLAND WATERS AND ADMIRALTY
     INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KPQR 230355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET STRONG COLD FRONT WAS FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
POSSIBLY WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WAS A
DECENT SURFACE WAVE THAT MOVED ALONG OUR SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT
PRODUCED SOME MODERATELY STRONG NORTH COASTAL WINDS. THE WAVE HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND HELPED PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND INLAND INTO THE
CASCADES...AND WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS
A RESULT...AREAS THAT HAD PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN TODAY HAS SEEN THE
RAINFALL BREAK UP AND EASE. SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE EVEN IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND
BELIEVE THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING IS OVER. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND SOME DECENT BRIEF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO THERE IS A THREAT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR SOME MORE RAIN WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVES ON SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND INLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES WITH THE
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS STORM...BUT ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...THE STEADY RAINS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
WITH SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH SPLIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ON THE COAST. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VIS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT THERE
SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS MAY BRING INCREASED MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON. /26
&&

.MARINE...THE LAST LOW THAT MODELS HANDLED SOMEWHAT POORLY MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING
DECENT GALES THERE. WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AS THERE IS STILL THE STRONG ZONAL JET IN ABOUT THE SAME
POSITION AND CONCERN IS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN WHAT MODELS ARE
DEPICTING RIGHT NOW. SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT LATER THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 10
FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS TO 20 FT SEEM MORE THAN
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET STRONG COLD FRONT WAS FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
POSSIBLY WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WAS A
DECENT SURFACE WAVE THAT MOVED ALONG OUR SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT
PRODUCED SOME MODERATELY STRONG NORTH COASTAL WINDS. THE WAVE HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND HELPED PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND INLAND INTO THE
CASCADES...AND WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS
A RESULT...AREAS THAT HAD PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN TODAY HAS SEEN THE
RAINFALL BREAK UP AND EASE. SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE EVEN IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND
BELIEVE THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING IS OVER. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND SOME DECENT BRIEF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO THERE IS A THREAT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR SOME MORE RAIN WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVES ON SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND INLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES WITH THE
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS STORM...BUT ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...THE STEADY RAINS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
WITH SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH SPLIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ON THE COAST. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VIS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT THERE
SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS MAY BRING INCREASED MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON. /26
&&

.MARINE...THE LAST LOW THAT MODELS HANDLED SOMEWHAT POORLY MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING
DECENT GALES THERE. WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AS THERE IS STILL THE STRONG ZONAL JET IN ABOUT THE SAME
POSITION AND CONCERN IS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN WHAT MODELS ARE
DEPICTING RIGHT NOW. SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT LATER THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 10
FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS TO 20 FT SEEM MORE THAN
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230337
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
837 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist frontal boundary will produce heavy rain and high
elevation snow for the mountains and steady rain in the valleys
and basin tonight. Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue
through Thursday. A strong cold front will produce windy conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The pattern will continue to
be active into early next week. This includes the potential for
widespread rain into early next week, as moisture associated with
former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first round of precipitation is currently moving across extreme
eastern WA into north Idaho this evening. Regional radar mosaic
shows a broad band of steady precip moving north-northeast across
the region. It looks like all but the extreme southeast corner of
the forecast area will see some light rain from this feature. The
Lewis-Clark Valley and Camas Prairie may not get measurable precip
from this feature. PoPs and QPF were adjusted to account for a
quicker advancement of this warm frontal band. Some patchy fog was
added to the weather grids in response to reports of fog in the
Spokane and West Plains area. Webcams show that the problem area
could be the North Spokane area. Patchy fog was added to the
northeast valleys that are typically favorable to fog formation.
Winds were also bumped up across the Camas Prairie and into the
Lewiston area. The windy spots could see winds of 20 to 25 kts
with gusts to 40 kts. Solidly windy but still below advisory
criteria. The occluded front appears to be on track, just reaching
the Cascade crest as of 8pm. This feature has been dropping a
quick quarter inch or so as it moved inland across western WA. It
should pass through eastern WA by 12Z then across north ID by 18Z.
The entire forecast area should see a quick soaking as the front
passes through. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings likely in RA at KEAT and possibly KMWH tonight. At
the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR showers are expected with
steady stratiform rain and occasional MVFR ceilings developing
after 04Z. Tonight a trailing occluding front will sweep through
the region with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings
through 20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty
winds will help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  59  43  57  44  63 / 100  50  50  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  58  41  57  41  64 / 100  70  50  10  20  20
Pullman        48  59  45  59  47  69 /  90  80  50  10  40  10
Lewiston       53  63  48  64  46  72 /  40  60  50  20  40  10
Colville       48  57  41  58  41  60 / 100  60  50  10  50  30
Sandpoint      44  55  38  56  38  60 / 100 100  70  20  30  20
Kellogg        46  54  41  53  42  62 /  90  80  80  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  64  43  61  45  63 /  90  20  10  10  40  20
Wenatchee      48  61  44  57  47  58 / 100  30  10  10  60  40
Omak           48  59  40  58  44  58 / 100  40  10  10  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230337
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
837 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist frontal boundary will produce heavy rain and high
elevation snow for the mountains and steady rain in the valleys
and basin tonight. Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue
through Thursday. A strong cold front will produce windy conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The pattern will continue to
be active into early next week. This includes the potential for
widespread rain into early next week, as moisture associated with
former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first round of precipitation is currently moving across extreme
eastern WA into north Idaho this evening. Regional radar mosaic
shows a broad band of steady precip moving north-northeast across
the region. It looks like all but the extreme southeast corner of
the forecast area will see some light rain from this feature. The
Lewis-Clark Valley and Camas Prairie may not get measurable precip
from this feature. PoPs and QPF were adjusted to account for a
quicker advancement of this warm frontal band. Some patchy fog was
added to the weather grids in response to reports of fog in the
Spokane and West Plains area. Webcams show that the problem area
could be the North Spokane area. Patchy fog was added to the
northeast valleys that are typically favorable to fog formation.
Winds were also bumped up across the Camas Prairie and into the
Lewiston area. The windy spots could see winds of 20 to 25 kts
with gusts to 40 kts. Solidly windy but still below advisory
criteria. The occluded front appears to be on track, just reaching
the Cascade crest as of 8pm. This feature has been dropping a
quick quarter inch or so as it moved inland across western WA. It
should pass through eastern WA by 12Z then across north ID by 18Z.
The entire forecast area should see a quick soaking as the front
passes through. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings likely in RA at KEAT and possibly KMWH tonight. At
the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR showers are expected with
steady stratiform rain and occasional MVFR ceilings developing
after 04Z. Tonight a trailing occluding front will sweep through
the region with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings
through 20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty
winds will help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  59  43  57  44  63 / 100  50  50  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  58  41  57  41  64 / 100  70  50  10  20  20
Pullman        48  59  45  59  47  69 /  90  80  50  10  40  10
Lewiston       53  63  48  64  46  72 /  40  60  50  20  40  10
Colville       48  57  41  58  41  60 / 100  60  50  10  50  30
Sandpoint      44  55  38  56  38  60 / 100 100  70  20  30  20
Kellogg        46  54  41  53  42  62 /  90  80  80  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  64  43  61  45  63 /  90  20  10  10  40  20
Wenatchee      48  61  44  57  47  58 / 100  30  10  10  60  40
Omak           48  59  40  58  44  58 / 100  40  10  10  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222344
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
444 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist frontal boundary will produce heavy rain and high
elevation snow for the mountains and steady rain in the valleys
and basin tonight. Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue
through Thursday. A strong cold front will produce windy conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The pattern will continue to
be active into early next week. This includes the potential for
widespread rain into early next week, as moisture associated with
former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...Pacific satellite loop displays a
baroclinic leaf cloud structure developing over western Washington
this afternoon...indicative of a frontal couplet featuring a warm
front running west to east over eastern Washington followed by a
cold occluded front running southwest to northeast just off the
Pacific Coast. This frontal complex is being fueled by a deep and
well directed fetch of sub-tropical moisture. The passage of this
sopping wet frontal complex will drive the weather for the next 24
to 36 hours. The entire forecast area is or soon will be in the
thick of this wet storm...with surface observation already
recording a general 1/2 to 1 inch of rain and high mountain snow
WE over the Cascades in the last 12 hours...with even the
normally dry deep basin locations receiving from a few hundredths
to a tenth of and inch already this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient is producing a downslope southeast wind field
over the Palouse and points south which is retarding the onset of
precipitation.

Two regimes or rounds will occur over the next 24 hours. The
first round will occur this evening over the west and through
tonight over the east and will be characterized by steady light
to moderate stratiform rain enhancing isentropically over the slow
moving or nearly stationary warm front. Low level upslope flow
into the Cascades will assure continued precipitation even over
the normally dry deep basin. Snow levels will remain around 6000
feet in this warm advective scenario. The currently dry Palouse
and LC valley will succumb to the rain later tonight as the fetch
becomes better directed and in particular as the robust lift
along the occlusion moves through towards dawn.

The arrival of the occluded front will mark the beginning of the
second round. Passing trough the Cascades around midnight and into
the Idaho Panhandle around dawn this front will bring an area of
dense and occasionally heavy showers just ahead of it...followed
by a quick shut off of significant precipitation but a quick
increase in winds especially over the exposed terrain of the
basin. A moist orographic regime will dominate with the usual rain
shadow off the Cascades and continued orographic showers feeding
into the northeast Washington and Idaho Panhandle mountains.

Winds on Thursday look to be solidly breezy with gust potential up
to 30-35 mph or so on exposed terrain but the models are similar
in depicting a gradient that will not justify any wind highlights
at this time. These winds will help keep temperatures on the warm
side of normal in a well mixed and adiabatically dominated surface
layer.

Hydrology Issues...rainfall totals from this storm will range
from over 2 inches near the Cascade Crest to 1 to 2 inches in the
mountains north and east of the basin. Lowland locations will
range from 1/4 to 1/2 inch in the basin to near an inch or so in
the valleys branching off the basin. River levels appear to be low
enough to be able to handle this runoff with no trouble but
smaller streams and tributaries draining the mountains will likely
see significant rises but probably no small stream flooding. The
wild card issue is how the recent burn scars in the Cascades will
handle this soaking rain. Rain rates will not be sufficient to
trigger classic flash floods but as the soil becomes saturated
there is a possibility of denuded slopes becoming unstable and
producing debris flows. These debris flows in gullies and stream
beds could also produce debris dams in the channels and lead to a
higher threat of dambreak flooding or "Ice Jam" type upstream
flooding. There is a great deal of uncertainty and little
experience/case history with these possibilities and these areas
will need to be monitored closely over the next 24 hours. /Fugazzi

Thursday night through Friday: Moist and unstable upslope flow
will produce lingering showers across the ID Panhandle. These
showers will be most numerous Thursday evening and taper off
through Friday. All of the rain from the current weather system
impacting the region will result in substantial boundary layer
moisture. This will increase the threat for fog overnight Thursday
into Friday morning as mid level clouds clear west to east across
eastern WA. Friday will be fairly benign with the region in
between weather systems. High temperatures will be near to or
slightly above normal in the 50s to low 60s.

Friday night through Saturday night: A vigorous shortwave trough
of lower pressure will pivot around the upper level low pressure
system in the Gulf of Alaska on Friday. In addition, a moderate to
strong jet streak will be draped across the state of WA. A strong
vorticity maximum at the base of the shortwave trough and favorable
jet dynamics for large scale lift in the right entrance region of
the jet streak will result in rapid surface cyclogenesis along
130W off the coast of northern CA and southern OR. Models show
good agreement with this surface low tracking northeast into
northwest WA on Saturday. The GFS is on the faster side of the
medium range model guidance available, but good agreement overall.

The warm front is progged to push north across the region Friday
night. This will result in increased low level flow out of the
east. The front itself does not appear to be particularly strong
or moist. Easterly flow down the east slopes of the ID Panhandle
Mountains will result in some downward motions across these areas
out into the eastern basin. This will counteract the lift along
the warm front somewhat. Best chances for precip will likely be
across the western portion of the forecast area, and more so in
the East Slopes of the Northern Cascades where easterly flow will
create some orographic enhancement. Temperatures will likely be
fairly mild across the eastern portion of the forecast area
behind the warm front on Saturday.

Cold front passage with this system is expected Saturday night.
This will result in increasing chances for precipitation from west
to east along the front. Precipitation with this system is not
expected to be much of a concern with light to moderate amounts
anticipated. The greater concern with the front will be the
winds. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty still at this
time, but the surface low will be pushing inland across northwest WA
near its peak intensity. The 12Z GFS and NAM model guidance has
come in with an 850 mb jet of around 50-55 kt winds. There will be
some decent cold air advection with the front, so I anticipate
these winds will have a chance to mix down to the surface even
though it will push across after sunset. These solutions are much
stronger than previous runs, so confidence is still only moderate
at this time. A wind highlight may be needed if these stronger
solutions continue as the event approaches. /SVH

Sunday through Wednesday: Models continue to depict an active
pattern, with temperature held closer to seasonal averages;
however agreement over the details decreases in the new work week.

Sunday and Sunday night a surface low over southwest Canada
tracks east. A trough trailing it sags across northeast WA and
north ID, weakening and pulling away by Monday morning. In tandem,
the supporting upper trough migrates from the Pacific NW to the
northern High Plains, with the steering flow switching from
southwest to west-northwest. Moisture and low-grade instability
wrapped up in these features will continue providing shower chances
across much of the Inland NW. Yet the best chances will be near
the Cascade crest and the mountains of northeast WA and ID; the
lowest chances will be in the lee of the Cascades and L-C Valley.

From Sunday night into Monday the threat will retreat to just the
mountain areas and if anything falls it looks light. There will
be a stratus and patchy fog threat over the eastern Columbia Basin
into the eastern mountain valleys in the night and morning hours
too, given the lower level southwest flow and moisture provided
from recent rains.

From Monday night through Tuesday night the next system comes in,
ostensibly with another modest moisture fetch which includes the
remains former tropical system Ana. However there is wide
variation amongst models over the precise track and timing of the
system. Some runs bring a defined low toward the central BC coast
and others bring a smaller scale low toward the northern Oregon
coast. The further south solutions offer higher precipitation
amounts for the Inland NW and the further north solution shows
more diffuse, lighter precipitation. These details will continue
to be monitored and fine-tuned as we get more information. Right
now look for thickening clouds on Monday night with the main rain
chances increasing over the Cascades. The precipitation chances
increase across the rest of the area going into Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the system moves inland. By Wednesday models
depict a shortwave ridge builds in, leading to a relative decrease
in the precipitation threat and some stratus/patchy fog threat
again over the eastern third of WA and north ID, especially in the
sheltered valleys. Rain chances will begin to increase from the
west again late as that next system approaches. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings likely in RA at KEAT and possibly KMWH tonight. At
the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR showers are expected with
steady stratiform rain and occasional MVFR ceilings developing
after 04Z. Tonight a trailing occluding front will sweep through
the region with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings
through 20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty
winds will help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  59  43  57  44  63 / 100  50  50  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  58  41  57  41  64 / 100  70  50  20  20  20
Pullman        48  59  45  59  47  69 /  90  80  50  10  40  10
Lewiston       53  63  48  64  46  72 /  40  60  50  20  40  10
Colville       48  57  41  58  41  60 / 100  60  50  10  50  30
Sandpoint      45  55  38  56  38  60 / 100 100  70  20  30  20
Kellogg        46  54  41  53  42  62 /  90  80  80  30  20  10
Moses Lake     50  64  43  61  45  63 /  90  20  10  10  40  20
Wenatchee      49  61  44  57  47  58 / 100  30  10  10  60  40
Omak           48  59  40  58  44  58 / 100  40  10  10  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 222252 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPO IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH OF THE MARINE SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE...SO THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A BRIEF AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE DRIER WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS SHOW THE FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE
CASCADES INTO NORTHWESTERN OREGON. A BROAD AND RATHER DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED AROUND 145W LONGITUDE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH AND ARE RIDING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TODAY AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE NOW OVER THE OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTED ABOUT 50 TO
100 MILES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE RAIN WAS SEEN
TODAY. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...THIS ONE NOW SEEN AS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A DEVELOPING INSTANT OCCLUSION NORTH OF THE FRONT NEAR
135W...APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS SEEN EARLIER TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS HAS MAINLY MOVED INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND...BUT SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN STILL BE SEEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
SEEN ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. THE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE INTERIOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INSTANT OCCLUSION MOVES NE ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALL TO AROUND -2.1 AND CAPES RISE TO
ABOUT 500 J/KG IN THE SEATTLE AREA 21Z THU PER THE NAM12 AND THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THU.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND COME TO AN END FRI MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM THE BERING SEA
AS IT PHASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REMAINS OF ANA NW OF HAWAII. THE
LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
DEPTH AT AROUND 985 MB OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE 5-10 MB DEEPER. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT MAY BRING A RATHER DRY PERIOD...ALBEIT
CLOUDY...TO THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE LOW QUICKLY BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED IN ALL OF THE MODELS OFF
THE OREGON COAST...THEN IT MATURES...MOVES NORTHEAST...AND GRADUALLY
DECAYS AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS OUR AREA SAT EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...IT MAY GET WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH THE
LOW DECAYING AND WIND FIELD EXPANDING...EXPECT THE THREAT OF HIGH
WIND IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW 25 PERCENT. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...LIKE THE 12Z CANADIAN SOLUTION...KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE
GENERAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BEING SEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OF LATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IT WILL
REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ON THE GFS IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STILL A WET ONE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT LESS WINDY. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE SKOKOMISH AT POTLATCH CRESTED AROUND 17.2
FEET AT NOON TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY RECEDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW-MOVING CDFNT OVER THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE
E OF THE CASCADES BY 0600 UTC THU. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONT OVER THE REGION THRU
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SLY.

EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1-3K FT AND 3-5SM RANGE...
RESPECTIVELY...THRU TONIGHT. HOWEVER HEAVY PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

KSEA...CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BUT OCNLY CIGS IN THE
2-3K FT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THRU PART OF TONIGHT. CIGS NEAR 2K FT
MAY BECOME PREDOMINANT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PUGET
SOUND REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE E OF THE CASCADES BY LATE
THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BURST OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED THE END OF THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM HIGH END GALE OR
LOW END STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TO INCONSEQUENTIAL
WIND SPEEDS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. THUS ANTICIPATE
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS IN EFFECT FOR
      THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
      FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
      THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 222252 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPO IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH OF THE MARINE SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE...SO THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A BRIEF AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE DRIER WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS SHOW THE FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE
CASCADES INTO NORTHWESTERN OREGON. A BROAD AND RATHER DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED AROUND 145W LONGITUDE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH AND ARE RIDING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TODAY AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE NOW OVER THE OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTED ABOUT 50 TO
100 MILES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE RAIN WAS SEEN
TODAY. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...THIS ONE NOW SEEN AS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A DEVELOPING INSTANT OCCLUSION NORTH OF THE FRONT NEAR
135W...APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS SEEN EARLIER TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS HAS MAINLY MOVED INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND...BUT SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN STILL BE SEEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
SEEN ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. THE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE INTERIOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INSTANT OCCLUSION MOVES NE ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALL TO AROUND -2.1 AND CAPES RISE TO
ABOUT 500 J/KG IN THE SEATTLE AREA 21Z THU PER THE NAM12 AND THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THU.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND COME TO AN END FRI MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM THE BERING SEA
AS IT PHASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REMAINS OF ANA NW OF HAWAII. THE
LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
DEPTH AT AROUND 985 MB OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE 5-10 MB DEEPER. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT MAY BRING A RATHER DRY PERIOD...ALBEIT
CLOUDY...TO THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE LOW QUICKLY BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED IN ALL OF THE MODELS OFF
THE OREGON COAST...THEN IT MATURES...MOVES NORTHEAST...AND GRADUALLY
DECAYS AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS OUR AREA SAT EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...IT MAY GET WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH THE
LOW DECAYING AND WIND FIELD EXPANDING...EXPECT THE THREAT OF HIGH
WIND IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW 25 PERCENT. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...LIKE THE 12Z CANADIAN SOLUTION...KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE
GENERAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BEING SEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OF LATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IT WILL
REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ON THE GFS IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STILL A WET ONE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT LESS WINDY. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE SKOKOMISH AT POTLATCH CRESTED AROUND 17.2
FEET AT NOON TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY RECEDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW-MOVING CDFNT OVER THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE
E OF THE CASCADES BY 0600 UTC THU. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONT OVER THE REGION THRU
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SLY.

EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1-3K FT AND 3-5SM RANGE...
RESPECTIVELY...THRU TONIGHT. HOWEVER HEAVY PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

KSEA...CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BUT OCNLY CIGS IN THE
2-3K FT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THRU PART OF TONIGHT. CIGS NEAR 2K FT
MAY BECOME PREDOMINANT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PUGET
SOUND REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE E OF THE CASCADES BY LATE
THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BURST OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED THE END OF THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM HIGH END GALE OR
LOW END STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TO INCONSEQUENTIAL
WIND SPEEDS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. THUS ANTICIPATE
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS IN EFFECT FOR
      THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
      FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
      THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 222233
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
333 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE...SO THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A BRIEF AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE DRIER WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS SHOW THE FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE
CASCADES INTO NORTHWESTERN OREGON. A BROAD AND RATHER DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED AROUND 145W LONGITUDE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH AND ARE RIDING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TODAY AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE NOW OVER THE OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTED ABOUT 50 TO
100 MILES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE RAIN WAS SEEN
TODAY. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...THIS ONE NOW SEEN AS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A DEVELOPING INSTANT OCCLUSION NORTH OF THE FRONT NEAR
135W...APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS SEEN EARLIER TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS HAS MAINLY MOVED INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND...BUT SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN STILL BE SEEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
SEEN ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. THE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE INTERIOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INSTANT OCCLUSION MOVES NE ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALL TO AROUND -2.1 AND CAPES RISE TO
ABOUT 500 J/KG IN THE SEATTLE AREA 21Z THU PER THE NAM12 AND THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THU.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND COME TO AN END FRI MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM THE BERING SEA
AS IT PHASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REMAINS OF ANA NW OF HAWAII. THE
LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
DEPTH AT AROUND 985 MB OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE 5-10 MB DEEPER. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT MAY BRING A RATHER DRY PERIOD...ALBEIT
CLOUDY...TO THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE LOW QUICKLY BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED IN ALL OF THE MODELS OFF
THE OREGON COAST...THEN IT MATURES...MOVES NORTHEAST...AND GRADUALLY
DECAYS AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS OUR AREA SAT EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...IT MAY GET WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH THE
LOW DECAYING AND WIND FIELD EXPANDING...EXPECT THE THREAT OF HIGH
WIND IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW 25 PERCENT. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...LIKE THE 12Z CANADIAN SOLUTION...KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE
GENERAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BEING SEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OF LATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IT WILL
REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ON THE GFS IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STILL A WET ONE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT LESS WINDY. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE SKOKOMISH AT POTLATCH CRESTED AROUND 17.2
FEET AT NOON TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY RECEDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW-MOVING CDFNT OVER THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE
E OF THE CASCADES BY 0600 UTC THU. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONT OVER THE REGION THRU
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SLY.

EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1-3K FT AND 3-5SM RANGE...
RESPECTIVELY...THRU TONIGHT. HOWEVER HEAVY PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

KSEA...CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BUT OCNLY CIGS IN THE
2-3K FT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THRU PART OF TONIGHT. CIGS NEAR 2K FT
MAY BECOME PREDOMINANT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PUGET
SOUND REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE E OF THE CASCADES BY LATE
THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BURST OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED THE END OF THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM HIGH END GALE OR
LOW END STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA OR INCONSEQUENTIAL
WIND SPEEDS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. THUS ANTICIPATE
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS IN EFFECT FOR
      THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
      FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
      THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 222225 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS INTO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING
INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE CANCELING
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED AND JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OF 35 KT AT BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY
29...SUSPECT THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W AND MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE NORTH
OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE SHARPLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND APPROACH 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 222210 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE CANCELING
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT AT
BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY 29...SUSPECT
THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W AND MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE NORTH
OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE SHARPLY AND
APPROACH 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 222207
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE
CANCELING THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT AT
BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY 29...SUSPECT
THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 985MB WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
THE NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END STORM
FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT SATURDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD CERTAINLY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 20 FT SEAS.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist frontal boundary will produce heavy rain and high
elevation snow for the mountains and steady rain in the valleys
and basin tonight. Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue
through Thursday. A strong cold front will produce windy conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The pattern will continue to
be active into early next week. This includes the potential for
widespread rain into early next week, as moisture associated with
former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...Pacific satellite loop displays a
baroclinic leaf cloud structure developing over western Washington
this afternoon...indicative of a frontal couplet featuring a warm
front running west to east over eastern Washington followed by a
cold occluded front running southwest to northeast just off the
Pacific Coast. This frontal complex is being fueled by a deep and
well directed fetch of sub-tropical moisture. The passage of this
sopping wet frontal complex will drive the weather for the next 24
to 36 hours. The entire forecast area is or soon will be in the
thick of this wet storm...with surface observation already
recording a general 1/2 to 1 inch of rain and high mountain snow
WE over the Cascades in the last 12 hours...with even the
normally dry deep basin locations receiving from a few hundredths
to a tenth of and inch already this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient is producing a downslope southeast wind field
over the Palouse and points south which is retarding the onset of
precipitation.

Two regimes or rounds will occur over the next 24 hours. The
first round will occur this evening over the west and through
tonight over the east and will be characterized by steady light
to moderate stratiform rain enhancing isentropically over the slow
moving or nearly stationary warm front. Low level upslope flow
into the Cascades will assure continued precipitation even over
the normally dry deep basin. Snow levels will remain around 6000
feet in this warm advective scenario. The currently dry Palouse
and LC valley will succumb to the rain later tonight as the fetch
becomes better directed and in particular as the robust lift
along the occlusion moves through towards dawn.

The arrival of the occluded front will mark the beginning of the
second round. Passing trough the Cascades around midnight and into
the Idaho Panhandle around dawn this front will bring an area of
dense and occasionally heavy showers just ahead of it...followed
by a quick shut off of significant precipitation but a quick
increase in winds especially over the exposed terrain of the
basin. A moist orographic regime will dominate with the usual rain
shadow off the Cascades and continued orographic showers feeding
into the northeast Washington and Idaho Panhandle mountains.

Winds on Thursday look to be solidly breezy with gust potential up
to 30-35 mph or so on exposed terrain but the models are similar
in depicting a gradient that will not justify any wind highlights
at this time. These winds will help keep temperatures on the warm
side of normal in a well mixed and adiabatically dominated surface
layer.

Hydrology Issues...rainfall totals from this storm will range
from over 2 inches near the Cascade Crest to 1 to 2 inches in the
mountains north and east of the basin. Lowland locations will
range from 1/4 to 1/2 inch in the basin to near an inch or so in
the valleys branching off the basin. River levels appear to be low
enough to be able to handle this runoff with no trouble but
smaller streams and tributaries draining the mountains will likely
see significant rises but probably no small stream flooding. The
wild card issue is how the recent burn scars in the Cascades will
handle this soaking rain. Rain rates will not be sufficient to
trigger classic flash floods but as the soil becomes saturated
there is a possibility of denuded slopes becoming unstable and
producing debris flows. These debris flows in gullies and stream
beds could also produce debris dams in the channels and lead to a
higher threat of dambreak flooding or "Ice Jam" type upstream
flooding. There is a great deal of uncertainty and little
experience/case history with these possibilities and these areas
will need to be monitored closely over the next 24 hours. /Fugazzi

Thursday night through Friday: Moist and unstable upslope flow
will produce lingering showers across the ID Panhandle. These
showers will be most numerous Thursday evening and taper off
through Friday. All of the rain from the current weather system
impacting the region will result in substantial boundary layer
moisture. This will increase the threat for fog overnight Thursday
into Friday morning as mid level clouds clear west to east across
eastern WA. Friday will be fairly benign with the region in
between weather systems. High temperatures will be near to or
slightly above normal in the 50s to low 60s.

Friday night through Saturday night: A vigorous shortwave trough
of lower pressure will pivot around the upper level low pressure
system in the Gulf of Alaska on Friday. In addition, a moderate to
strong jet streak will be draped across the state of WA. A strong
vorticity maximum at the base of the shortwave trough and favorable
jet dynamics for large scale lift in the right entrance region of
the jet streak will result in rapid surface cyclogenesis along
130W off the coast of northern CA and southern OR. Models show
good agreement with this surface low tracking northeast into
northwest WA on Saturday. The GFS is on the faster side of the
medium range model guidance available, but good agreement overall.

The warm front is progged to push north across the region Friday
night. This will result in increased low level flow out of the
east. The front itself does not appear to be particularly strong
or moist. Easterly flow down the east slopes of the ID Panhandle
Mountains will result in some downward motions across these areas
out into the eastern basin. This will counteract the lift along
the warm front somewhat. Best chances for precip will likely be
across the western portion of the forecast area, and more so in
the East Slopes of the Northern Cascades where easterly flow will
create some orographic enhancement. Temperatures will likely be
fairly mild across the eastern portion of the forecast area
behind the warm front on Saturday.

Cold front passage with this system is expected Saturday night.
This will result in increasing chances for precipitation from west
to east along the front. Precipitation with this system is not
expected to be much of a concern with light to moderate amounts
anticipated. The greater concern with the front will be the
winds. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty still at this
time, but the surface low will be pushing inland across northwest WA
near its peak intensity. The 12Z GFS and NAM model guidance has
come in with an 850 mb jet of around 50-55 kt winds. There will be
some decent cold air advection with the front, so I anticipate
these winds will have a chance to mix down to the surface even
though it will push across after sunset. These solutions are much
stronger than previous runs, so confidence is still only moderate
at this time. A wind highlight may be needed if these stronger
solutions continue as the event approaches. /SVH

Sunday through Wednesday: Models continue to depict an active
pattern, with temperature held closer to seasonal averages;
however agreement over the details decreases in the new work week.

Sunday and Sunday night a surface low over southwest Canada
tracks east. A trough trailing it sags across northeast WA and
north ID, weakening and pulling away by Monday morning. In tandem,
the supporting upper trough migrates from the Pacific NW to the
northern High Plains, with the steering flow switching from
southwest to west-northwest. Moisture and low-grade instability
wrapped up in these features will continue providing shower chances
across much of the Inland NW. Yet the best chances will be near
the Cascade crest and the mountains of northeast WA and ID; the
lowest chances will be in the lee of the Cascades and L-C Valley.

From Sunday night into Monday the threat will retreat to just the
mountain areas and if anything falls it looks light. There will
be a stratus and patchy fog threat over the eastern Columbia Basin
into the eastern mountain valleys in the night and morning hours
too, given the lower level southwest flow and moisture provided
from recent rains.

From Monday night through Tuesday night the next system comes in,
ostensibly with another modest moisture fetch which includes the
remains former tropical system Ana. However there is wide
variation amongst models over the precise track and timing of the
system. Some runs bring a defined low toward the central BC coast
and others bring a smaller scale low toward the northern Oregon
coast. The further south solutions offer higher precipitation
amounts for the Inland NW and the further north solution shows
more diffuse, lighter precipitation. These details will continue
to be monitored and fine-tuned as we get more information. Right
now look for thickening clouds on Monday night with the main rain
chances increasing over the Cascades. The precipitation chances
increase across the rest of the area going into Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the system moves inland. By Wednesday models
depict a shortwave ridge builds in, leading to a relative decrease
in the precipitation threat and some stratus/patchy fog threat
again over the eastern third of WA and north ID, especially in the
sheltered valleys. Rain chances will begin to increase from the
west again late as that next system approaches. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings in RA will likely develop at KEAT and possibly KMWH
during the day today. At the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR
showers are expected through 00Z with steady stratiform rain and
occasional MVFR ceilings developing after 00Z. Tonight a trailing
occluding front will sweep through the region with heavier rain
along and immediately behind the front. A moist boundary layer
even after the FROPA will likely promote continued IFR stratus
ceilings through 18Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and
KEAT. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  59  43  57  44  63 / 100  50  50  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  58  41  57  41  64 / 100  70  50  20  20  20
Pullman        48  59  45  59  47  69 /  90  80  50  10  40  10
Lewiston       53  63  48  64  46  72 /  40  60  50  20  40  10
Colville       48  57  41  58  41  60 / 100  60  50  10  50  30
Sandpoint      45  55  38  56  38  60 / 100 100  70  20  30  20
Kellogg        46  54  41  53  42  62 /  90  80  80  30  20  10
Moses Lake     50  64  43  61  45  63 /  90  20  10  10  40  20
Wenatchee      49  61  44  57  47  58 / 100  30  10  10  60  40
Omak           48  59  40  58  44  58 / 100  40  10  10  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221704
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1004 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Wednesday night, a very moist frontal boundary will
produce heavy precipitation for the Cascades and possibly the
mountains of North Idaho. Though the heavy rains end Thursday
Night, the pattern will continue to be active into early next
week. This includes the potential for widespread rain Friday into
Saturday, then again Monday into  Tuesday, as moisture associated
with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Satellite imagery reveals a deep and well
directed fetch of Pacific moisture beginning to hose into the
region this morning. This moisture will be efficiently enhanced
into widespread rain and high mountain snow over a developing warm
front draped across the region today. A general deterioration
first into increasingly common showers...then into outright steady
rain will overtake the eastern half of the forecast area as the
day wears on. Over the western half...the Cascades to a Moses
lake- Republic line...Steady light to moderate rain has already
begun or soon will begin with many locations in the Cascades
already tallying 1/3 to >1/2 inch in the last 12 hours. The best
chance of dry but increasingly cloudy conditions today will be
over the Central Panhandle Mountains and the Palouse and points
south where downsloping east winds will help keep the sub-cloud
layer drier for longer today...but eventually...probably sometime
this evening...rain will begin here as well.

Inherited forecast from the mid-shift has this trend well in
hand...and only a few minor tweaks in pops and temperatures have
been made fro the morning zone update. No need to update State
Forecast Product at this time. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings in RA will likely develop at KEAT and possibly KMWH
during the day today. At the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR
showers are expected through 00Z with steady stratiform rain and
occasional MVFR ceilings developing after 00Z. Tonight a trailing
occluding front will sweep through the region with heavier rain
along and immediately behind the front. A moist boundary layer
even after the FROPA will likely promote continued IFR stratus
ceilings through 18Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and
KEAT. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  48  59  43  56  44 /  70 100  50  20  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  55  45  58  41  55  41 /  60 100  70  30  40  60
Pullman        62  47  59  45  58  47 /  30  80  60  30  50  50
Lewiston       66  51  63  48  61  46 /  10  40  60  40  60  30
Colville       53  45  57  41  59  41 / 100 100  60  30  20  60
Sandpoint      54  43  55  38  57  38 /  80 100  90  50  20  60
Kellogg        52  45  54  41  53  42 /  20  90  80  60  40  60
Moses Lake     59  48  64  43  58  45 /  90  90  20  10  50  60
Wenatchee      55  48  61  44  55  47 / 100 100  30  10  60  70
Omak           56  46  59  40  58  44 / 100 100  40  20  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221704
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1004 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Wednesday night, a very moist frontal boundary will
produce heavy precipitation for the Cascades and possibly the
mountains of North Idaho. Though the heavy rains end Thursday
Night, the pattern will continue to be active into early next
week. This includes the potential for widespread rain Friday into
Saturday, then again Monday into  Tuesday, as moisture associated
with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Satellite imagery reveals a deep and well
directed fetch of Pacific moisture beginning to hose into the
region this morning. This moisture will be efficiently enhanced
into widespread rain and high mountain snow over a developing warm
front draped across the region today. A general deterioration
first into increasingly common showers...then into outright steady
rain will overtake the eastern half of the forecast area as the
day wears on. Over the western half...the Cascades to a Moses
lake- Republic line...Steady light to moderate rain has already
begun or soon will begin with many locations in the Cascades
already tallying 1/3 to >1/2 inch in the last 12 hours. The best
chance of dry but increasingly cloudy conditions today will be
over the Central Panhandle Mountains and the Palouse and points
south where downsloping east winds will help keep the sub-cloud
layer drier for longer today...but eventually...probably sometime
this evening...rain will begin here as well.

Inherited forecast from the mid-shift has this trend well in
hand...and only a few minor tweaks in pops and temperatures have
been made fro the morning zone update. No need to update State
Forecast Product at this time. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings in RA will likely develop at KEAT and possibly KMWH
during the day today. At the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR
showers are expected through 00Z with steady stratiform rain and
occasional MVFR ceilings developing after 00Z. Tonight a trailing
occluding front will sweep through the region with heavier rain
along and immediately behind the front. A moist boundary layer
even after the FROPA will likely promote continued IFR stratus
ceilings through 18Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and
KEAT. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  48  59  43  56  44 /  70 100  50  20  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  55  45  58  41  55  41 /  60 100  70  30  40  60
Pullman        62  47  59  45  58  47 /  30  80  60  30  50  50
Lewiston       66  51  63  48  61  46 /  10  40  60  40  60  30
Colville       53  45  57  41  59  41 / 100 100  60  30  20  60
Sandpoint      54  43  55  38  57  38 /  80 100  90  50  20  60
Kellogg        52  45  54  41  53  42 /  20  90  80  60  40  60
Moses Lake     59  48  64  43  58  45 /  90  90  20  10  50  60
Wenatchee      55  48  61  44  55  47 / 100 100  30  10  60  70
Omak           56  46  59  40  58  44 / 100 100  40  20  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 221638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LASHED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN
OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS IN THIS AREA SUCH AS THE GRAYS
RIVER AND THE NASELLE RIVER AS SHOWING SHARP RISES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE THE GRAYS HAS THE RIVER STAGE REACHING JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON COAST
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO WATCHING OUR FAST
RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS DRAINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GUSTY...BUT HAVE
FALLEN SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MOST BEACH AND
HEADLAND LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-55 MPH...WITH A FEW
SPOTS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS OF 9 AM. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RE-ENERGIZE THE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT NOON MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WILL
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PYLE

.REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED...
THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT KAST.
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD IN IFR A BIT LONGER AT KONP. FURTHER
INLAND...WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
STEADY RAIN MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES TO GENERALLY
RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS...STRETCHING
FROM BUOY 50 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND MAY PUSH THE
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN IT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS AND WILL DECIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVERDONE ON THEIR WIND SPEEDS...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IF THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
OR IF IT IS EXTENDED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE
17 TO 19 FT RANGE. GIVEN WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND FAIRLY QUICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND DROP INTO THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
MATERIALIZE...BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
INTO THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A DEEPENING 985MB-ISH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR
GREATER SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 FT OR MORE SEAS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LASHED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN
OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS IN THIS AREA SUCH AS THE GRAYS
RIVER AND THE NASELLE RIVER AS SHOWING SHARP RISES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE THE GRAYS HAS THE RIVER STAGE REACHING JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON COAST
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO WATCHING OUR FAST
RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS DRAINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GUSTY...BUT HAVE
FALLEN SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MOST BEACH AND
HEADLAND LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-55 MPH...WITH A FEW
SPOTS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS OF 9 AM. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RE-ENERGIZE THE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT NOON MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WILL
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PYLE

.REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED...
THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT KAST.
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD IN IFR A BIT LONGER AT KONP. FURTHER
INLAND...WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
STEADY RAIN MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES TO GENERALLY
RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS...STRETCHING
FROM BUOY 50 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND MAY PUSH THE
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN IT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS AND WILL DECIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVERDONE ON THEIR WIND SPEEDS...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IF THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
OR IF IT IS EXTENDED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE
17 TO 19 FT RANGE. GIVEN WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND FAIRLY QUICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND DROP INTO THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
MATERIALIZE...BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
INTO THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A DEEPENING 985MB-ISH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR
GREATER SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 FT OR MORE SEAS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 221624
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IS MOVING INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS
UNSTABLE...SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS SHOW THE FRONT THAT
BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA DRAPED
FROM THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SE. WIND ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALL OF
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. THE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RADAR
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY.

THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES RISING TO ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR ON THU AND GFS MOS SHOWS THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF
TSTMS RISING TO OVER 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. SO A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WAS ADDED TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR TONIGHT AND THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THU AS DISTURBANCES IN THE COOL AIR ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SW.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND COME TO AN END FRI MORNING AS A DEEP
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM
THE BERING SEA INTERACTS WITH THE REMAINS OF ANA NW OF HAWAII. THE
LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
DEPTH AT AROUND 985-987 MB OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...WITH A
VERTICALLY STACKED MATURE LOW IN ITS DECAYING STAGE AS IT MOVES NE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON SAT NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GIVE A DRY PERIOD FRI
AFTN THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH RAIN MOVING IN LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY...THE THREAT OF A WIND
STORM OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE DECAYING NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE WIND FIELD
SPREADING OUT FROM ITS CENTER. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. A RIDGE WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD ON MON FOR A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER...WILL LIKELY SEE POPS DECREASED OVER THIS PERIOD. THEN
MORE RAIN AND BLUSTERY WEATHER BY TUE AS ANOTHER WET PAC FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE RIVER SHOULD CREST BY NOON TODAY THEN
SLOWLY FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE CASCADES IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANY
OF THE CASCADE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A CDFNT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONT MOVING SLOWLY E.
THIS FRONT WILL BE E OF THE CASCADES BY 0600 UTC THU. CONTD LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON FOR A RISK OF ISOLD TSTMS. CONTD STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MTNS WILL BE OBSCD.

MEANWHILE...EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS NEAR 1K FT ALONG WITH VSBYS IN THE
2-4SM RANGE DUE TO RAIN AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT
RANGE ANTICIPATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF VSBYS IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

KSEA...EXPECT OCNL CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE TODAY. VSBYS WILL
LIKELY LOWER INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SLY AT 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THU. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF
TSTMS. MEANWHILE...LOWER PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HIGH PRES
OVER CA WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THU. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE OR EASTERLY ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE OREGON WATERS FROM THE SW.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.
     FLOOD WATCH MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
      THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM
      THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 221624
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IS MOVING INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS
UNSTABLE...SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS SHOW THE FRONT THAT
BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA DRAPED
FROM THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SE. WIND ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALL OF
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. THE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RADAR
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY.

THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES RISING TO ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR ON THU AND GFS MOS SHOWS THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF
TSTMS RISING TO OVER 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. SO A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WAS ADDED TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR TONIGHT AND THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THU AS DISTURBANCES IN THE COOL AIR ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SW.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND COME TO AN END FRI MORNING AS A DEEP
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM
THE BERING SEA INTERACTS WITH THE REMAINS OF ANA NW OF HAWAII. THE
LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
DEPTH AT AROUND 985-987 MB OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...WITH A
VERTICALLY STACKED MATURE LOW IN ITS DECAYING STAGE AS IT MOVES NE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON SAT NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GIVE A DRY PERIOD FRI
AFTN THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH RAIN MOVING IN LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY...THE THREAT OF A WIND
STORM OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE DECAYING NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE WIND FIELD
SPREADING OUT FROM ITS CENTER. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. A RIDGE WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD ON MON FOR A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER...WILL LIKELY SEE POPS DECREASED OVER THIS PERIOD. THEN
MORE RAIN AND BLUSTERY WEATHER BY TUE AS ANOTHER WET PAC FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE RIVER SHOULD CREST BY NOON TODAY THEN
SLOWLY FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE CASCADES IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANY
OF THE CASCADE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A CDFNT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONT MOVING SLOWLY E.
THIS FRONT WILL BE E OF THE CASCADES BY 0600 UTC THU. CONTD LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON FOR A RISK OF ISOLD TSTMS. CONTD STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MTNS WILL BE OBSCD.

MEANWHILE...EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS NEAR 1K FT ALONG WITH VSBYS IN THE
2-4SM RANGE DUE TO RAIN AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT
RANGE ANTICIPATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF VSBYS IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

KSEA...EXPECT OCNL CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE TODAY. VSBYS WILL
LIKELY LOWER INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SLY AT 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THU. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF
TSTMS. MEANWHILE...LOWER PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HIGH PRES
OVER CA WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THU. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE OR EASTERLY ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE OREGON WATERS FROM THE SW.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.
     FLOOD WATCH MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
      THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM
      THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KOTX 221220
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
520 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Wednesday night, a very moist frontal boundary will
produce heavy precipitation for the Cascades and possibly the
mountains of North Idaho. Though the heavy rains end Thursday
Night, the pattern will continue to be active into early next
week. This includes the potential for widespread rain Friday into
Saturday, then again Monday into  Tuesday, as moisture associated
with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...Wet period awaits most of the Inland Northwest
during this period. The latest satellite images are showing a
very moist occluded front extending from deep upper level low over
the eastern Gulf of Alaska south-southwest through Vancouver
Island and the Olympic Peninsula. The blended precipitable water
product shows a very impressive atmospheric river streaming from
west of the Dateline all the way to the Washington coast.
Precipitable water values within this front ranged from 1 to 1.3
inches...which is about 2 standard deviations above normal for
this time of year. This moisture will eventually push east of the
Cascades...but the question is when. Over the past several hours
the eastward progression of the front has slowed...likely in
response to a shortwave trough forming near 42/135. This should
delay the onset of the precipitation in the lee of the Cascades.
00Z models aren`t depicting this slowing trend well....however the
new 06z NAM is doing much better. Through late morning...most of
the precipitation will occur west of a line from Colville .to
Rtzville.. By late afternoon...that line will extend from Kellogg
to the Blue Mountains. Once the precipitation begins...it will
continue through much of the night for most of the night as low-
level moisture transport and isentropic ascent look very
formidable. The only drying trend during this period will occur
after midnight in the lee of the Cascades...as the mid-level flow
trends to the west and the precipitable water plume shifts south
and east of that area. QPF amounts during this period will be
impressive with the heaviest amounts expected over the northern
Cascades. Values ranging from 1-1.5 inches will be possible...with
amounts around an inch extending across the northern mountains of
Washington. Despite the lofty precipitation amounts...hydro
problems if any...will be minor due to relatively dry in situ
conditions and low river levels...combined with a slow but steady
stratiform precipitation regime (as opposed to a rapid convective
event). If problems were to occur...it would likely be near the
Cascade burn scars. We will continue to issue hydrological
statements to address this issue. The location with the lightest
precipitation amounts will be over the LC Valley...due the the
late onset of the precipitation (last area for front to arrive)
and persistent southerly downslope flow off the Blues.

Aside from the widespread threat of precipitation...we are looking
at another warm and perhaps windy day. Until the front and
precipitation arrives...most of the area will be subject to
moderate south-southeast winds...combined with warm 850 mb
temperatures. Between late afternoon and early evening...850 mb
temps surge above 10c over the SE quarter of Washington and the
southern Idaho Panhandle. Enhanced mixing potential will allow
temperatures to surge into the mid to upper 60s (if not slightly
warmer) across SE Washington and adjacent portions of Idaho.
Meanwhile temperatures will be significantly cooler across the NW
portions of the forecast area. With the rain likely to develop
early...the impacts of diurnal heating will be largely mitigated.
Highs in these areas won`t be much warmer than the current
temperatures which suggests readings in the mid 50s. fx

Thurs through Sat: For Thurs, we slowly progressed the frontal
boundary and associated rich moisture plume through southeast Wa
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle. The tricky part will be determining
how far east across the Cascades and Upper Columbia Basin to bring
the post-frontal dry slot as well as steep mid-level lapse rates.
It`s possible we`ll see some cloud breaks Thurs afternoon that
would help to enhance any sfc-based instability and produce
localized heavier embedded showers. This will be especially true
for the Cascades as an inbound vort max reaches NW Wa by
afternoon. We increased winds as well for Thurs as the vertical
profile becomes nearly unidirectional from the SW in the dry slot,
with 850mb winds around 30 kts. Once the vort max moves into Srn
BC, rapidly rising hts aloft ahead of a warm front over Oregon
will help to quickly end the persistent heavy pcpn threat Thurs
Nt. Concerning this warm front, we made some significant changes
to the timing of the pcpn as this front moves north across Ern Wa.
This includes slowing down the onset of light rain, keeping Nrn
Wa and much of the N Idaho Panhandle near BC dry for Fri.bz

Sunday through Wednesday: The models are indicating a dry period
on Sunday followed by an extended period of rainshowers through
midweek with multiple systems passing through the region. The
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals with highs
around mid 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Focus for this period will center on strong low-level
warm air and moisture advection ahead of front currently on the WA
Coast. As the best advection heads east of the Cascades...all
sites will see an increasing and lowering cloud trend as well as
an increasing chance of rain. The rain will become widespread
before 18z at MWH and EAT...and hold off closer to 00z or a little
later for the remaining sites. The last location expected to see
rain is LWS due to downslope southerly winds. Generally
speaking...strong warm air advection cases do not lead to
widespread IFR cigs however brief MVFR cigs will be
possible...especially for EAT and MWH later today and the GEG-COE
corridor later this evening. Threat was too small to list as a
prevailing condition in forecast. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  48  59  43  56  44 /  60 100  50  20  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  53  45  58  41  55  41 /  40 100  70  30  40  60
Pullman        63  47  59  45  58  47 /  30  80  60  30  50  50
Lewiston       67  51  63  48  61  46 /  10  40  60  40  60  30
Colville       50  45  57  41  59  41 / 100 100  60  30  20  60
Sandpoint      54  43  55  38  57  38 /  60 100  90  50  20  60
Kellogg        53  45  54  41  53  42 /  20  90  80  60  40  60
Moses Lake     60  48  64  43  58  45 /  90  90  20  10  50  60
Wenatchee      56  48  61  44  55  47 / 100 100  30  10  60  70
Omak           57  46  59  40  58  44 / 100 100  40  20  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 221041
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES. THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN JUANS AND
WESTERN WHATCOM THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH. THIS
HIGH WIND IS CAUSED BY A TIGHT SURFACE LOW PASSING INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL EASE BY MID MORNING.

THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING. THREE INCHES FELL OVER THE NORTH COAST WITH 2-4 IN THE
OLYMPICS. THIS BAND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES
THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVY RAIN ENDING OVER THE OLYMPICS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SECOND WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH...CLIPPING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CASCADES TONIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES...BUT OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LESS IN THE
CASCADES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN
PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND THIS LESSENS THE THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING.
AS FOR THE INTERIOR...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
POPS WERE RAISED AS WE SHOULD SEE OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY.

WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRI MORNING...THEN MORE RAIN
WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO WESTERN WA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT MORE WET AND WINDY WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE THE WIND AND THE TRACKING OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE WA COAST.
MODELS BRING A 980S MB LOW INTO WESTERN WA SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
WIND POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND SAT NIGHT. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM MORE CLOSELY AS IT EVOLVES. 33

.LONG TERM...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. A RIDGE WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD
ON MON FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER...WILL LIKELY SEE POPS DECREASED
OVER THIS PERIOD. THEN MORE RAIN AND BLUSTERY WEATHER BY TUE AS
ANOTHER WET PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
MASON COUNTY. THE RIVER IS RISING AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. BUT OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE LESS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. EXPECT SHARP RISES ON THE RIVERS...BUT IT
APPEARS FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...A 995 MB SURFACE LOW TRACKING NE OVER CENTRAL VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH WRN WA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO WRN WA...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SW FLOW TONIGHT. MOIST AND GENERALLY STABLE. RAIN AT TIMES. CIGS
MOSTLY VFR BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

KSEA...SLY WINDS 12-15 W/ GUSTS 25-30 KT...EASING LATER THIS
MORNING. RAIN AT TIMES. CIGS MOSTLY VFR ABOVE 3K FT. VIS 4-5 SM AT
TIMES DURING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...AND
INLAND WATERS N OF PUGET SOUND EARLY THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS
TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED IN PUGET SOUND/CENTRAL STRAIT...CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON IN PUGET SOUND. WINDS WILL EASE FIRST ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 5-6 AM...THEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 8-9 AM. SEAS
OVER 15 FEET ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH ROUGH BAR
CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING SAN JUANS AND WESTERN WHATCOM UNTIL 9 AM THIS
     MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY WESTERN SKAGIT AND ADMIRALTY INLET UNTIL 9 AM
     THIS MORNING.
     FLOOD WATCH MASON COUNTY.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
     SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KPQR 221039
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
INLAND. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE TUESDAY...MOVING ONSHORE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AS
ROUGHLY A 993 MB LOW LATE TUE EVENING. THIS LOW BROUGHT A SURGE OF
WIND TO THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MOST HEADLAND
LOCATIONS RECEIVED GUSTS 45-55 MPH...BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. SOME
HIGHER AND MORE EXPOSED HEADLAND LOCATIONS LIKE CAPE MEARS HAVE
RECEIVED HIGHER GUSTS...CAPE MEARS TOPPED OUT AT 66 MPH AT 115 AM.
ALSO THE NOS SITE AT GARIBALDI RECENTLY RECORDED A GUST TO 60 MPH.
EXPECT A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF WIND ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. WILL
LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING UP FOR BEACHES AND HEADLANDS THIS
MORNING...BUT IT WILL BE A VERY MARGINAL ONE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE WAVES OF ENERGY TRAVELLING NE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS REDUCES
THE WIND THREAT INLAND SOMEWHAT...PERHAPS SOME 30-35 MPH GUSTS FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WINDS WILL DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY...BOTH ALONG THE COAST
AND INLAND.

WHILE WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THIS
IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT NOT JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE INLAND VALLEYS AS
WELL. THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA TENDS
TO SEE THEIR MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THESE WAVY FRONT
SITUATIONS...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELLING
ALONG THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT CARRY A LOT OF MOISTURE. THE
MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY THERE...THERE IS STILL A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EXTENDING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TO THE DATELINE.
PRECIPIATABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.25 INCH ARE STILL EVIDENT
WITHIN THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.

THEREFORE...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2
INCHES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN BY
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THE GRAYS RIVER MAY BE SPARED FLOODING...DUE TO
STARTING OFF WITH FAIRLY LOW FLOW. CHPS MODEL SIMULATIONS...EVEN WITH
WORST-CASE SCENARIO RAINFALL OF 4-6 INCHES IN THE WILLAPA
HILLS...ONLY BRING THE RIVER UP TO AROUND 10-11 FT...FLOOD STAGE IS
12 FT. THEREFORE THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOOD THREAT...EXACERBATED BY FALLEN LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT HAS MOVED JUST ONSHORE WITH COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INLAND
THROUGH 15Z-20Z WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR AS HEAVIER
RAIN MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT. MVFR WILL PROBABLY BE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 00Z THU. FOR COASTAL AREAS...LOW MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO
TAKE HOLD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND MAY SEE SOME IFR CIGS BEFORE
SUNRISE . STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
ASTORIA ALREADY GUSTING TO ALMOST 40 KT AND SIMILAR GUSTS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z WED AND PERHAPS
UNTIL 00Z THU. BUT AFTER 18Z WED GUIDANCE INDICATING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS
THEN MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR NOT A HIGH CONCERN AT THIS POINT BUT SHOULD THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND HOLD...AREAS TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE COULD EXPERIENCE LLWS WED MORNING. BOWEN/MH

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY JUST ONSHORE WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT BUOYS 29 AND 89 INDICATING THE COLD FRONT ISN`T
TOO FAR BEHIND. BUOY 29 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING TO GALE
FORCE WITH A COUPLE OF GUSTS TO STORM STRENGTH BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
QUALIFY AS A STORM EVENT. EXPECT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS TO INCREASE SIMILARLY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 17 FT AND BUOY 29 HAS RECORDED AS HIGH
AS 20 FT WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS MAY APPROACH 20 FT WITH PEAK WINDS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT
EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WEAKER
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH WITH MODELS RUNNING A BIT SLOWER IN THE
RECENT RUNS. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST FOR
LATER FRI INTO SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EURO WITH A BIT OF
GFS BLENDED IN. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SOLID GALE WITH SEAS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH THE SYSTEM.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 220955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Wednesday night, a very moist frontal boundary will
produce heavy precipitation for the Cascades and possibly the
mountains of North Idaho. Though the heavy rains end Thursday
Night, the pattern will continue to be active into early next
week. This includes the potential for widespread rain Friday into
Saturday, then again Monday into  Tuesday, as moisture associated
with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...Wet period awaits most of the Inland Northwest
during this period. The latest satellite images are showing a
very moist occluded front extending from deep upper level low over
the eastern Gulf of Alaska south-southwest through Vancouver
Island and the Olympic Peninsula. The blended precipitable water
product shows a very impressive atmospheric river streaming from
west of the Dateline all the way to the Washington coast.
Precipitable water values within this front ranged from 1 to 1.3
inches...which is about 2 standard deviations above normal for
this time of year. This moisture will eventually push east of the
Cascades...but the question is when. Over the past several hours
the eastward progression of the front has slowed...likely in
response to a shortwave trough forming near 42/135. This should
delay the onset of the precipitation in the lee of the Cascades.
00Z models aren`t depicting this slowing trend well....however the
new 06z NAM is doing much better. Through late morning...most of
the precipitation will occur west of a line from Colville .to
Rtzville.. By late afternoon...that line will extend from Kellogg
to the Blue Mountains. Once the precipitation begins...it will
continue through much of the night for most of the night as low-
level moisture transport and isentropic ascent look very
formidable. The only drying trend during this period will occur
after midnight in the lee of the Cascades...as the mid-level flow
trends to the west and the precipitable water plume shifts south
and east of that area. QPF amounts during this period will be
impressive with the heaviest amounts expected over the northern
Cascades. Values ranging from 1-1.5 inches will be possible...with
amounts around an inch extending across the northern mountains of
Washington. Despite the lofty precipitation amounts...hydro
problems if any...will be minor due to relatively dry in situ
conditions and low river levels...combined with a slow but steady
stratiform precipitation regime (as opposed to a rapid convective
event). If problems were to occur...it would likely be near the
Cascade burn scars. We will continue to issue hydrological
statements to address this issue. The location with the lightest
precipitation amounts will be over the LC Valley...due the the
late onset of the precipitation (last area for front to arrive)
and persistent southerly downslope flow off the Blues.

Aside from the widespread threat of precipitation...we are looking
at another warm and perhaps windy day. Until the front and
precipitation arrives...most of the area will be subject to
moderate south-southeast winds...combined with warm 850 mb
temperatures. Between late afternoon and early evening...850 mb
temps surge above 10c over the SE quarter of Washington and the
southern Idaho Panhandle. Enhanced mixing potential will allow
temperatures to surge into the mid to upper 60s (if not slightly
warmer) across SE Washington and adjacent portions of Idaho.
Meanwhile temperatures will be significantly cooler across the NW
portions of the forecast area. With the rain likely to develop
early...the impacts of diurnal heating will be largely mitigated.
Highs in these areas won`t be much warmer than the current
temperatures which suggests readings in the mid 50s. fx

Thurs through Sat: For Thurs, we slowly progressed the frontal
boundary and associated rich moisture plume through southeast Wa
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle. The tricky part will be determining
how far east across the Cascades and Upper Columbia Basin to bring
the post-frontal dry slot as well as steep mid-level lapse rates.
It`s possible we`ll see some cloud breaks Thurs afternoon that
would help to enhance any sfc-based instability and produce
localized heavier embedded showers. This will be especially true
for the Cascades as an inbound vort max reaches NW Wa by
afternoon. We increased winds as well for Thurs as the vertical
profile becomes nearly unidirectional from the SW in the dry slot,
with 850mb winds around 30 kts. Once the vort max moves into Srn
BC, rapidly rising hts aloft ahead of a warm front over Oregon
will help to quickly end the persistent heavy pcpn threat Thurs
Nt. Concerning this warm front, we made some significant changes
to the timing of the pcpn as this front moves north across Ern Wa.
This includes slowing down the onset of light rain, keeping Nrn
Wa and much of the N Idaho Panhandle near BC dry for Fri.bz

Sunday through Wednesday: The models are indicating a dry period
on Sunday followed by an extended period of rainshowers through
midweek with multiple systems passing through the region. The
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals with highs
around mid 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Low level flow will back to out of the southeast
overnight as a moist Pacific storm system approaches the region.
Strong warm air advection should clear out the low clouds tonight
with rainfall forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by
Wednesday morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing
after 12Z with cigs lowering to MVFR category. Light rain will
spread east to KMWH around 16Z, then to KGEG-KCOE after 20Z. KPUW
and KLWS may not see precipitation until after 06Z Thursday. Low
level wind shear will become a concern as well with winds
increasing significantly off the surface and veering to out of the
southwest, however, low level wind shear is not mentioned in the
TAFs as it does not look to be strong enough. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  48  59  43  56  44 /  60 100  50  20  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  53  45  58  41  55  41 /  40 100  70  30  40  60
Pullman        63  47  59  45  58  47 /  30  80  60  30  50  50
Lewiston       67  51  63  48  61  46 /  10  40  60  40  60  30
Colville       50  45  57  41  59  41 / 100 100  60  30  20  60
Sandpoint      54  43  55  38  57  38 /  60 100  90  50  20  60
Kellogg        53  45  54  41  53  42 /  20  90  80  60  40  60
Moses Lake     60  48  64  43  58  45 /  90  90  20  10  50  60
Wenatchee      56  48  61  44  55  47 / 100 100  30  10  60  70
Omak           57  46  59  40  58  44 / 100 100  40  20  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 220955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Wednesday night, a very moist frontal boundary will
produce heavy precipitation for the Cascades and possibly the
mountains of North Idaho. Though the heavy rains end Thursday
Night, the pattern will continue to be active into early next
week. This includes the potential for widespread rain Friday into
Saturday, then again Monday into  Tuesday, as moisture associated
with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...Wet period awaits most of the Inland Northwest
during this period. The latest satellite images are showing a
very moist occluded front extending from deep upper level low over
the eastern Gulf of Alaska south-southwest through Vancouver
Island and the Olympic Peninsula. The blended precipitable water
product shows a very impressive atmospheric river streaming from
west of the Dateline all the way to the Washington coast.
Precipitable water values within this front ranged from 1 to 1.3
inches...which is about 2 standard deviations above normal for
this time of year. This moisture will eventually push east of the
Cascades...but the question is when. Over the past several hours
the eastward progression of the front has slowed...likely in
response to a shortwave trough forming near 42/135. This should
delay the onset of the precipitation in the lee of the Cascades.
00Z models aren`t depicting this slowing trend well....however the
new 06z NAM is doing much better. Through late morning...most of
the precipitation will occur west of a line from Colville .to
Rtzville.. By late afternoon...that line will extend from Kellogg
to the Blue Mountains. Once the precipitation begins...it will
continue through much of the night for most of the night as low-
level moisture transport and isentropic ascent look very
formidable. The only drying trend during this period will occur
after midnight in the lee of the Cascades...as the mid-level flow
trends to the west and the precipitable water plume shifts south
and east of that area. QPF amounts during this period will be
impressive with the heaviest amounts expected over the northern
Cascades. Values ranging from 1-1.5 inches will be possible...with
amounts around an inch extending across the northern mountains of
Washington. Despite the lofty precipitation amounts...hydro
problems if any...will be minor due to relatively dry in situ
conditions and low river levels...combined with a slow but steady
stratiform precipitation regime (as opposed to a rapid convective
event). If problems were to occur...it would likely be near the
Cascade burn scars. We will continue to issue hydrological
statements to address this issue. The location with the lightest
precipitation amounts will be over the LC Valley...due the the
late onset of the precipitation (last area for front to arrive)
and persistent southerly downslope flow off the Blues.

Aside from the widespread threat of precipitation...we are looking
at another warm and perhaps windy day. Until the front and
precipitation arrives...most of the area will be subject to
moderate south-southeast winds...combined with warm 850 mb
temperatures. Between late afternoon and early evening...850 mb
temps surge above 10c over the SE quarter of Washington and the
southern Idaho Panhandle. Enhanced mixing potential will allow
temperatures to surge into the mid to upper 60s (if not slightly
warmer) across SE Washington and adjacent portions of Idaho.
Meanwhile temperatures will be significantly cooler across the NW
portions of the forecast area. With the rain likely to develop
early...the impacts of diurnal heating will be largely mitigated.
Highs in these areas won`t be much warmer than the current
temperatures which suggests readings in the mid 50s. fx

Thurs through Sat: For Thurs, we slowly progressed the frontal
boundary and associated rich moisture plume through southeast Wa
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle. The tricky part will be determining
how far east across the Cascades and Upper Columbia Basin to bring
the post-frontal dry slot as well as steep mid-level lapse rates.
It`s possible we`ll see some cloud breaks Thurs afternoon that
would help to enhance any sfc-based instability and produce
localized heavier embedded showers. This will be especially true
for the Cascades as an inbound vort max reaches NW Wa by
afternoon. We increased winds as well for Thurs as the vertical
profile becomes nearly unidirectional from the SW in the dry slot,
with 850mb winds around 30 kts. Once the vort max moves into Srn
BC, rapidly rising hts aloft ahead of a warm front over Oregon
will help to quickly end the persistent heavy pcpn threat Thurs
Nt. Concerning this warm front, we made some significant changes
to the timing of the pcpn as this front moves north across Ern Wa.
This includes slowing down the onset of light rain, keeping Nrn
Wa and much of the N Idaho Panhandle near BC dry for Fri.bz

Sunday through Wednesday: The models are indicating a dry period
on Sunday followed by an extended period of rainshowers through
midweek with multiple systems passing through the region. The
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals with highs
around mid 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Low level flow will back to out of the southeast
overnight as a moist Pacific storm system approaches the region.
Strong warm air advection should clear out the low clouds tonight
with rainfall forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by
Wednesday morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing
after 12Z with cigs lowering to MVFR category. Light rain will
spread east to KMWH around 16Z, then to KGEG-KCOE after 20Z. KPUW
and KLWS may not see precipitation until after 06Z Thursday. Low
level wind shear will become a concern as well with winds
increasing significantly off the surface and veering to out of the
southwest, however, low level wind shear is not mentioned in the
TAFs as it does not look to be strong enough. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  48  59  43  56  44 /  60 100  50  20  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  53  45  58  41  55  41 /  40 100  70  30  40  60
Pullman        63  47  59  45  58  47 /  30  80  60  30  50  50
Lewiston       67  51  63  48  61  46 /  10  40  60  40  60  30
Colville       50  45  57  41  59  41 / 100 100  60  30  20  60
Sandpoint      54  43  55  38  57  38 /  60 100  90  50  20  60
Kellogg        53  45  54  41  53  42 /  20  90  80  60  40  60
Moses Lake     60  48  64  43  58  45 /  90  90  20  10  50  60
Wenatchee      56  48  61  44  55  47 / 100 100  30  10  60  70
Omak           57  46  59  40  58  44 / 100 100  40  20  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 220533
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1033 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to east this evening, leaving only some isolated
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. From late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, the next frontal wave and round of precipitation
comes through. The active pattern continues into early next week,
with the potential for more widespread rain late Friday into
Saturday, then again late Monday into next Tuesday, as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper trough axis has moved off to the east and the air mass
has become more stable as warmer air is advected in the mid
levels. The isolated showers that lingered over the Idaho
panhandle have pretty much ended this evening. The main area of
precipitation associated with the next very moist frontal system
is just starting to move ashore. This frontal band will slowly
move east tonight, reaching the Cascade crest in the next couple
of hours. Models are still showing a southwest-northeast gradient
in QPF overnight with the Spokane area right on the edge. Low
level winds have already backed to the south, so it looks like the
basin should escape the rain shadow with this system, but
downsloping off the Camas Prairie and NE Blue Mts should keep much
of the southeast corner dry until late Wednesday. Some minor
adjustments were made for this update but for the most part, the
current forecast package is on track. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Low level flow will back to out of the southeast
overnight as a moist Pacific storm system approaches the region.
Strong warm air advection should clear out the low clouds tonight
with rainfall forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by
Wednesday morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing
after 12Z with cigs lowering to MVFR category. Light rain will
spread east to KMWH around 16Z, then to KGEG-KCOE after 20Z. KPUW
and KLWS may not see precipitation until after 06Z Thursday. Low
level wind shear will become a concern as well with winds
increasing significantly off the surface and veering to out of the
southwest, however, low level wind shear is not mentioned in the
TAFs as it does not look to be strong enough. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  59  48  59  43  56 /  10  60  90  50  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  40  57  45  58  41  55 /  10  40  90  70  30  40
Pullman        43  62  47  59  45  58 /   0  20  70  60  30  50
Lewiston       44  66  51  63  48  61 /   0  10  30  60  40  60
Colville       44  54  46  57  41  56 /  20 100 100  60  20  20
Sandpoint      40  55  43  55  38  55 /  10  60  90  70  40  20
Kellogg        38  57  45  54  41  53 /  10  10  80  80  60  40
Moses Lake     49  59  48  64  43  58 /  20  90  90  20  10  50
Wenatchee      48  55  48  61  44  55 /  70 100  80  30  10  60
Omak           46  52  45  59  40  55 /  80 100 100  40  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 220533
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1033 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to east this evening, leaving only some isolated
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. From late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, the next frontal wave and round of precipitation
comes through. The active pattern continues into early next week,
with the potential for more widespread rain late Friday into
Saturday, then again late Monday into next Tuesday, as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper trough axis has moved off to the east and the air mass
has become more stable as warmer air is advected in the mid
levels. The isolated showers that lingered over the Idaho
panhandle have pretty much ended this evening. The main area of
precipitation associated with the next very moist frontal system
is just starting to move ashore. This frontal band will slowly
move east tonight, reaching the Cascade crest in the next couple
of hours. Models are still showing a southwest-northeast gradient
in QPF overnight with the Spokane area right on the edge. Low
level winds have already backed to the south, so it looks like the
basin should escape the rain shadow with this system, but
downsloping off the Camas Prairie and NE Blue Mts should keep much
of the southeast corner dry until late Wednesday. Some minor
adjustments were made for this update but for the most part, the
current forecast package is on track. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Low level flow will back to out of the southeast
overnight as a moist Pacific storm system approaches the region.
Strong warm air advection should clear out the low clouds tonight
with rainfall forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by
Wednesday morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing
after 12Z with cigs lowering to MVFR category. Light rain will
spread east to KMWH around 16Z, then to KGEG-KCOE after 20Z. KPUW
and KLWS may not see precipitation until after 06Z Thursday. Low
level wind shear will become a concern as well with winds
increasing significantly off the surface and veering to out of the
southwest, however, low level wind shear is not mentioned in the
TAFs as it does not look to be strong enough. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  59  48  59  43  56 /  10  60  90  50  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  40  57  45  58  41  55 /  10  40  90  70  30  40
Pullman        43  62  47  59  45  58 /   0  20  70  60  30  50
Lewiston       44  66  51  63  48  61 /   0  10  30  60  40  60
Colville       44  54  46  57  41  56 /  20 100 100  60  20  20
Sandpoint      40  55  43  55  38  55 /  10  60  90  70  40  20
Kellogg        38  57  45  54  41  53 /  10  10  80  80  60  40
Moses Lake     49  59  48  64  43  58 /  20  90  90  20  10  50
Wenatchee      48  55  48  61  44  55 /  70 100  80  30  10  60
Omak           46  52  45  59  40  55 /  80 100 100  40  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 220406
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SPREADING INLAND
MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY...AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS SUCH AS
LANE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WINDY
FRONT NOT ONLY FOR THE COAST BUT POSSIBLY INLAND IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS
INTENSIFYING OFF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS THIS EVENING...
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THE OCCLUDED OR WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTH ALONG
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY LIGHTENED ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...BUT SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND ONSHORE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. THE CURRENT HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE COAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE CONTINUED. LOOK FOR SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN. THE
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON...BUT BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO OUR NORTH COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...
AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH LANE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION RATES EAST IN THE NORTH. AT THIS
POINT WE THINK THE RIVERS WILL HAVE SHARP RISES BUT PROBABLY NOT
FLOOD...BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS A BIT OR RAINFALL RATES ARE A BIT
HEAVIER THAN FORECAST THAN WE MAY GET A COUPLE OF RIVER CLOSE TO
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS SMALLER CREEKS HAVE TROUBLE
CONTAINING THE RUNOFF AND STORM DRAINS GET BLOCKED BY LEAVES AND
CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT WET UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT THE
MAIN FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS MORE
SHOWERY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INLAND WED. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH 15Z-20Z WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
MVFR AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT. MVFR WILL PROBABLY BE
WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z THU. FOR COASTAL AREAS...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
TO START BUT AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
WITH MVFR AND IFR LIKELY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTH WIND 45 TO 50 KT AS LOW AS
1000 FT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z WED AND PERHAPS
UNTIL 00Z THU. BUT AFTER 18Z WED GUIDANCE INDICATING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THEN
MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR NOT A
HIGH CONCERN AT THIS POINT BUT SHOULD THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WIND HOLD...AREAS TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE COULD EXPERIENCE
LLWS WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WORKING ITS WAY TO THE COAST. WINDS HAVE
TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SE THIS EVENING BUT WILL RETURN TO SOUTH
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT.

HIGH END GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT...WITH STORM
FORCE GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TOMORROW AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. UPDATE WITH 00Z
MODEL RUN APPEARS PEAK WIND AT THE COAST SHOULD BE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM
WED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 13 TO 15 FT RANGE...BUT EXPECT THEM
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT OVERNIGHT DURING THE PERIOD
OF HIGHEST WINDS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK THU AND PART OF FRIDAY AS WEAKER
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. BUT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONT IS BEING
MODELED FOR LATER FRI INTO SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME..SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS AND
WAIT FOR REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL RUNS TO ARRIVE. BUT IT APPEARS THAT
ANOTHER SOLID GALE WITH SEAS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY. PYLE/MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220406
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SPREADING INLAND
MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY...AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS SUCH AS
LANE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WINDY
FRONT NOT ONLY FOR THE COAST BUT POSSIBLY INLAND IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS
INTENSIFYING OFF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS THIS EVENING...
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A DECENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THE OCCLUDED OR WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTH ALONG
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY LIGHTENED ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...BUT SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND ONSHORE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. THE CURRENT HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE COAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE CONTINUED. LOOK FOR SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN. THE
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON...BUT BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO OUR NORTH COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...
AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH LANE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION RATES EAST IN THE NORTH. AT THIS
POINT WE THINK THE RIVERS WILL HAVE SHARP RISES BUT PROBABLY NOT
FLOOD...BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS A BIT OR RAINFALL RATES ARE A BIT
HEAVIER THAN FORECAST THAN WE MAY GET A COUPLE OF RIVER CLOSE TO
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS SMALLER CREEKS HAVE TROUBLE
CONTAINING THE RUNOFF AND STORM DRAINS GET BLOCKED BY LEAVES AND
CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT WET UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT THE
MAIN FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS MORE
SHOWERY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INLAND WED. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH 15Z-20Z WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
MVFR AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT. MVFR WILL PROBABLY BE
WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z THU. FOR COASTAL AREAS...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
TO START BUT AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
WITH MVFR AND IFR LIKELY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTH WIND 45 TO 50 KT AS LOW AS
1000 FT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z WED AND PERHAPS
UNTIL 00Z THU. BUT AFTER 18Z WED GUIDANCE INDICATING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THEN
MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR NOT A
HIGH CONCERN AT THIS POINT BUT SHOULD THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WIND HOLD...AREAS TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE COULD EXPERIENCE
LLWS WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WORKING ITS WAY TO THE COAST. WINDS HAVE
TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SE THIS EVENING BUT WILL RETURN TO SOUTH
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT.

HIGH END GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT...WITH STORM
FORCE GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TOMORROW AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. UPDATE WITH 00Z
MODEL RUN APPEARS PEAK WIND AT THE COAST SHOULD BE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM
WED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 13 TO 15 FT RANGE...BUT EXPECT THEM
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 20 FT OVERNIGHT DURING THE PERIOD
OF HIGHEST WINDS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK THU AND PART OF FRIDAY AS WEAKER
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. BUT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONT IS BEING
MODELED FOR LATER FRI INTO SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME..SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS AND
WAIT FOR REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL RUNS TO ARRIVE. BUT IT APPEARS THAT
ANOTHER SOLID GALE WITH SEAS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY. PYLE/MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 220349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
849 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to east this evening, leaving only some isolated
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. From late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, the next frontal wave and round of precipitation
comes through. The active pattern continues into early next week,
with the potential for more widespread rain late Friday into
Saturday, then again late Monday into next Tuesday, as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper trough axis has moved off to the east and the air mass
has become more stable as warmer air is advected in the mid
levels. The isolated showers that lingered over the Idaho
panhandle have pretty much ended this evening. The main area of
precipitation associated with the next very moist frontal system
is just starting to move ashore. This frontal band will slowly
move east tonight, reaching the Cascade crest in the next couple
of hours. Models are still showing a southwest-northeast gradient
in QPF overnight with the Spokane area right on the edge. Low
level winds have already backed to the south, so it looks like the
basin should escape the rain shadow with this system, but
downsloping off the Camas Prairie and NE Blue Mts should keep much
of the southeast corner dry until late Wednesday. Some minor
adjustments were made for this update but for the most part, the
current forecast package is on track. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Low level flow will back to out of the southeast
overnight as a moist Pacific storm system approaches the region.
Strong warm air advection should clear out the low clouds tonight
with rainfall forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by
Wednesday morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing
after 12Z with cigs lowering to MVFR category. Light rain will
spread east to KMWH around 16Z, then to remaining TAF sites after
20Z. Low level wind shear will become a concern as well with
winds increasing significantly off the surface and veering to out
of the southwest, however, low level wind shear is not mentioned
in the TAFs as it does not look to be strong enough. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  59  48  59  43  56 /  10  60  90  50  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  40  57  45  58  41  55 /  10  40  90  70  30  40
Pullman        43  62  47  59  45  58 /   0  20  70  60  30  50
Lewiston       44  66  51  63  48  61 /   0  10  30  60  40  60
Colville       44  54  46  57  41  56 /  20 100 100  60  20  20
Sandpoint      40  55  43  55  38  55 /  10  60  90  70  40  20
Kellogg        38  57  45  54  41  53 /  10  10  80  80  60  40
Moses Lake     49  59  48  64  43  58 /  20  90  90  20  10  50
Wenatchee      48  55  48  61  44  55 /  70 100  80  30  10  60
Omak           46  52  45  59  40  55 /  80 100 100  40  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 220349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
849 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to east this evening, leaving only some isolated
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. From late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, the next frontal wave and round of precipitation
comes through. The active pattern continues into early next week,
with the potential for more widespread rain late Friday into
Saturday, then again late Monday into next Tuesday, as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper trough axis has moved off to the east and the air mass
has become more stable as warmer air is advected in the mid
levels. The isolated showers that lingered over the Idaho
panhandle have pretty much ended this evening. The main area of
precipitation associated with the next very moist frontal system
is just starting to move ashore. This frontal band will slowly
move east tonight, reaching the Cascade crest in the next couple
of hours. Models are still showing a southwest-northeast gradient
in QPF overnight with the Spokane area right on the edge. Low
level winds have already backed to the south, so it looks like the
basin should escape the rain shadow with this system, but
downsloping off the Camas Prairie and NE Blue Mts should keep much
of the southeast corner dry until late Wednesday. Some minor
adjustments were made for this update but for the most part, the
current forecast package is on track. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Low level flow will back to out of the southeast
overnight as a moist Pacific storm system approaches the region.
Strong warm air advection should clear out the low clouds tonight
with rainfall forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by
Wednesday morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing
after 12Z with cigs lowering to MVFR category. Light rain will
spread east to KMWH around 16Z, then to remaining TAF sites after
20Z. Low level wind shear will become a concern as well with
winds increasing significantly off the surface and veering to out
of the southwest, however, low level wind shear is not mentioned
in the TAFs as it does not look to be strong enough. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  59  48  59  43  56 /  10  60  90  50  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  40  57  45  58  41  55 /  10  40  90  70  30  40
Pullman        43  62  47  59  45  58 /   0  20  70  60  30  50
Lewiston       44  66  51  63  48  61 /   0  10  30  60  40  60
Colville       44  54  46  57  41  56 /  20 100 100  60  20  20
Sandpoint      40  55  43  55  38  55 /  10  60  90  70  40  20
Kellogg        38  57  45  54  41  53 /  10  10  80  80  60  40
Moses Lake     49  59  48  64  43  58 /  20  90  90  20  10  50
Wenatchee      48  55  48  61  44  55 /  70 100  80  30  10  60
Omak           46  52  45  59  40  55 /  80 100 100  40  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 220342
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN
THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES. THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AT 830 PM THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS JUST INSIDE OF
130W AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN RISING WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
ON THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. DESTRUCTION ISLAND WAS BLOWING A FULL
GALE AND MAY REACH STORM FORCE. WITH SSE WINDS THE WIND OVER LAND
SHOULD BE GUSTING TO 50MPH AND THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORMALLY WINDIER AREAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE TRACKING
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND HAVE DECREASED AS THE PRECIP HAS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRATIFORM. THE STRONG SLY WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT INTO
THE OLYMPICS SHOULD GIVE AROUND FIVE INCHES OF RAIN AND A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER OUGHT TO REACH FLOOD STATE
AROUND 2AM AND A WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT RIVER. THERE IS ALSO
A WATCH FOR THE NRN CASCADES...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN IN THE
CASCADES WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF TIL LATE TONIGHT THRU WED MORNING.
THE RAIN BECOMES SHOWERY WED EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU AS ONSHORE FLOW AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. LATE IN THE WEEK A DEEP LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA...THE LATEST NAM HAS A 988MB LOW TRACKS NNE INTO THE SRN
OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK SAT.

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES INLAND SOMEWHERE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY BRINGING WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DECREASE ON SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WARM FRONT
AND LOW APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODEL DETAILS DIFFER...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WET AND BREEZY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AT LEAST
HIGHER PASS LEVEL MIDWEEK AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS COOLING
OFF WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 50S. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
MASON COUNTY. FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND FOR SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD IN THE
INTERIOR FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS IN
THE CASCADES MOST LIKELY TO SEE FLOOD STAGE ARE THE STILLAGUAMISH
RIVER IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY AND THE NOOKSACK RIVER IN WHATCOM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL VANCOUVER
ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG FLOW
ALOFT TO WRN WA. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. RAIN OVER THE COAST WILL
SPREAD INLAND BY MIDNIGHT...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR
CIGS INLAND AND MVFR CIGS NEAR THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

KSEA...SLY WINDS 10-14 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT W/ G25-30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EASING. RAIN INCREASING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CIGS PREDOMINATELY 3K FT BUT MVFR 2-2500 FT AT
TIMES. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VIS DOWN
TO 2SM. DTM

&&

.MARINE...SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PAC NW IS
DEEPENING AND ON TRACK TO REACH CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND AS A 990 MB
LOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
BRING HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOLID
GALES TO THE ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NRN
INLAND WATERS. SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED IN PUGET
SOUND/CENTRAL STRAIT. WINDS WILL EASE FIRST ALONG THE COAST AFTER 6
AM...THEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 9-10 AM. SEAS OVER 15 FEET ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY.
     FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS
       HARBOR COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     FLOOD WATCH SNOHOMISH...SKAGIT...AND WHATCOM COUNTIES MIDDAY
      WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
     SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 220342
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN
THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES. THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AT 830 PM THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS JUST INSIDE OF
130W AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN RISING WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
ON THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH. DESTRUCTION ISLAND WAS BLOWING A FULL
GALE AND MAY REACH STORM FORCE. WITH SSE WINDS THE WIND OVER LAND
SHOULD BE GUSTING TO 50MPH AND THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORMALLY WINDIER AREAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE TRACKING
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND HAVE DECREASED AS THE PRECIP HAS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRATIFORM. THE STRONG SLY WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT INTO
THE OLYMPICS SHOULD GIVE AROUND FIVE INCHES OF RAIN AND A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER OUGHT TO REACH FLOOD STATE
AROUND 2AM AND A WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT RIVER. THERE IS ALSO
A WATCH FOR THE NRN CASCADES...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN IN THE
CASCADES WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF TIL LATE TONIGHT THRU WED MORNING.
THE RAIN BECOMES SHOWERY WED EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU AS ONSHORE FLOW AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. LATE IN THE WEEK A DEEP LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA...THE LATEST NAM HAS A 988MB LOW TRACKS NNE INTO THE SRN
OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK SAT.

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES INLAND SOMEWHERE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY BRINGING WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DECREASE ON SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WARM FRONT
AND LOW APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODEL DETAILS DIFFER...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WET AND BREEZY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AT LEAST
HIGHER PASS LEVEL MIDWEEK AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS COOLING
OFF WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 50S. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
MASON COUNTY. FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND FOR SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD IN THE
INTERIOR FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS IN
THE CASCADES MOST LIKELY TO SEE FLOOD STAGE ARE THE STILLAGUAMISH
RIVER IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY AND THE NOOKSACK RIVER IN WHATCOM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL VANCOUVER
ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG FLOW
ALOFT TO WRN WA. MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. RAIN OVER THE COAST WILL
SPREAD INLAND BY MIDNIGHT...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR
CIGS INLAND AND MVFR CIGS NEAR THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

KSEA...SLY WINDS 10-14 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT W/ G25-30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EASING. RAIN INCREASING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CIGS PREDOMINATELY 3K FT BUT MVFR 2-2500 FT AT
TIMES. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VIS DOWN
TO 2SM. DTM

&&

.MARINE...SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PAC NW IS
DEEPENING AND ON TRACK TO REACH CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND AS A 990 MB
LOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
BRING HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOLID
GALES TO THE ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NRN
INLAND WATERS. SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED IN PUGET
SOUND/CENTRAL STRAIT. WINDS WILL EASE FIRST ALONG THE COAST AFTER 6
AM...THEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 9-10 AM. SEAS OVER 15 FEET ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY.
     FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS
       HARBOR COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     FLOOD WATCH SNOHOMISH...SKAGIT...AND WHATCOM COUNTIES MIDDAY
      WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
     SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KOTX 220011
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
511 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to east this evening, leaving only some isolated
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. From late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, the next frontal wave and round of precipitation
comes through. The active pattern continues into early next week,
with the potential for more widespread rain late Friday into
Saturday, then again late Monday into next Tuesday, as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...A MOIST PACIFIC STORM WITH SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTIONS TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

Tonight through Wednesday: Satellite imagery shows a deep upper
level low pressure system circulating in the Gulf Alaska. Water
vapor imagery shows a deep fetch of moisture extending out along
40N to an area of sub-tropical convection in the central Pacific.
Model guidance indicates P-wats of up around 1.25 inches directed
toward the Pacific Northwest. Much of this moisture content will
be squeezed out along the windward slopes of the northern Cascade
Mtns, but more than enough of this moisture is expected to
translate east of the Cascades for soaking rains across much of
the region beginning tonight.

The warm front shows up rather nicely on satellite, which
currently is just off the WA/OR coast. There is a good amount of
enhancement on both the water vapor and IR satellite imagery in
the warm sector of the low behind the leading edge of the warm
front. This will be the area to keep an eye on trough tonight for
periods of moderate to heavy rain. Much of this rainfall will
remain along the Cascade crest this evening into the early
portions of the overnight period. This moisture will begin to
push east of the Cascade Mtns early Wednesday morning. Strong
isentropic ascent will occur across the northwestern portion of
the forecast area with much of the precip falling northwest of a
line from about Ritzville to Sandpoint. Much of the southeastern
portion of the forecast area will have to wait for rain until the
cold front pushes further onshore after tomorrow afternoon.

*Rain Amounts: Easterly to southeasterly winds at low levels will
 result in good upslope flow into the East Slopes of the Northern
 Cascades over into the Okanogan Highlands. These areas are
 expected to see a range of 0.75-1.50 inches of rainfall over a 24
 hour period tonight through Wednesday. Higher amounts closer to 2
 inches will be possible up near the Cascade crest. The Wenatchee
 Area, Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Vly will see rainfall
 amounts closer to a half of an inch over this period; and the
 Moses Lake Area, Upper Columbia Basin into the Northeast Mtns
 will see rainfall amounts between 0.10 to around 0.25 inches
 through Wednesday.

*Impacts: There is a small chance for some rises to small streams
 and mud slides due to heavy rain. The primary area of concern
 will be along the East Slopes of the Northern Cascade Mtns and
 primarily in or near recent burn scars. Rainfall intensity will
 likely not be strong enough for Flash Flooding concerns; however,
 rainfall on recent burn scars will likely lead to more rapid
 runoff than normally observed in these kind of events.

*Snow: Snow levels will be up around 6,500 feet through this
 period. This will result in snow only up over the highest peaks
 and primarily over the peaks in the Cascades.

*Winds: A southeasterly surface pressure gradient will tighten tonight
 into Wednesday. Winds at 850 mbs will increase up to around 30-35
 kts. Since the region will be exclusively in the warm sector
 during this period, mixing will be limited somewhat; this will be
 especially so in locations where it is raining. A better chance
 for better mixing will be across the basin over into the Central
 Panhandle Mtns where the rain will take a bit longer to form.
 This is expected to result in breezy southerly winds with
 sustained speeds of around 15-20 mph and gusts up to around 25-30
 mph.

*Temperatures: Expect cooler temperatures with the rain to across
 the northwest portion of the forecast area on Wednesday. High
 temperatures will be more mild across the southeast portion of
 the forecast area and about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. /SVH

Wednesday night through Friday night: An active weather pattern
continues with a parade of systems tapping some subtropical
moisture. First from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning a
cold front pushes across the Cascades and advances toward Idaho
overnight into Thursday morning. Driven east by a mid-level
disturbance and a 130kt jet stream, this system is featuring
modest lift. The subtropical moisture plume directed into the
region ahead of this boundary pushes PWATs up toward 0.60 to 1.0
inches (or 150-240% of normal). This combination of lift and
moisture will bring likely rain between Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning across a large portion of eastern WA and north
ID. The lowest threat will be toward the L-C Valley and Camas
Prairie, especially before Thursday morning, and chances will
begin to wane in the lee of the Cascades late in the evening to
overnight.

From Thursday morning to early Thursday evening the frontal
boundary stalls near the central ID/MT border through northeast
OR, just south of Lookout Pass to the Blue Mountains, with the jet
just north of the front. Regional PWATs drop to between 0.40 to
0.70 inches (or 100-170% of normal). This is still a decent amount
of moisture. The proximity of the front and the enhanced lift near
the LFQ of the jet will keep precipitation likely across the Idaho
Panhandle through the Blues and near the Cascade crest. Chances
will also remain moderately high across the eastern third of WA,
with the proximity of that LFQ of the jet, but will be waning in
the lee of the Cascades.

From late Thursday evening to Friday morning the atmosphere dries
out a little more, with the core of deeper plume of moisture
briefly sagging toward southern Oregon. This plus weak shortwave
ridging nosing in ahead of the next system will further decrease
the precipitation through this period. The best chances of
precipitation during this time frame will be near southeast WA and
the ID Panhandle mountains, as well as near the Cascade crest.

From Friday afternoon through Friday night the next low pressure
system deepens as it lifts north from the CA/OR coast toward the
WA/OR coast. With the increased southerly flow a warm front lifts
into the region, with the plume of subtropical moisture coming
back north with it. Models suggest this should evolve as a band of
precipitation which envelopes areas along the WA/OR border through
the Idaho Clearwaters by later Friday afternoon, then lifts north
across much of remainder of central and eastern WA and north ID
early Friday evening, before the focus lifts toward the northern
mountains and backs against the Cascades overnight into Saturday
morning. So some modest precipitation amounts are possible:
potentially between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with local
amounts over a half inch to an inch toward the Cascades. This
could mean some slow rises on creeks and streams and other waterways
near the Cascades, with minor mudslides/debris flows. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Tuesday...A trough off the coast starts moving
in on Saturday with a decent cold front, gusty winds with near
or above normal temperatures and higher mountain snow. Sunday
will see a high pressure ridge building in for a brief break in
the weather. Then for Monday into Monday night, there will be the
next wet weather system on the way with Pacific moisture moving
in. After that it will be a fairly active weather pattern in the
future with multiple storm systems from the west especially for
the mountains but overall, no severe weather is expected for this
time of the forecast. /TC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Low level flow will back to out of the southeast
overnight as a moist Pacific storm system approaches the region.
Strong warm air advection should clear out the low clouds tonight
with rainfall forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by
Wednesday morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing
after 12Z with cigs lowering to MVFR category. Light rain will
spread east to KMWH around 16Z, then to remaining TAF sites after
20Z. Low level wind shear will become a concern as well with
winds increasing significantly off the surface and veering to out
of the southwest, however, low level wind shear is not mentioned
in the TAFs as it does not look to be strong enough. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  59  48  59  43  56 /  10  60  90  50  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  40  57  45  58  41  55 /  10  40  90  70  30  40
Pullman        43  62  47  59  45  58 /   0  20  70  60  30  50
Lewiston       44  66  51  63  48  61 /   0  10  30  60  40  60
Colville       44  54  46  57  41  56 /  20 100 100  60  20  20
Sandpoint      40  55  43  55  38  55 /  10  60  90  70  40  20
Kellogg        38  57  45  54  41  53 /  10  10  80  80  60  40
Moses Lake     49  59  48  64  43  58 /  20  90  90  20  10  50
Wenatchee      48  55  48  61  44  55 /  70 100  80  30  10  60
Omak           46  52  45  59  40  55 /  80 100 100  40  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 212238
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO THE
COAST TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TO
THE NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE RAIN AND WINDY WEATHER TO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE
BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT SITS FROM CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
LIGHTNING BEING OBSERVED 40 TO 70 MILES OFF THE NORTH COAST. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE NORTH COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO BECOME A BIT MORE STABLE LATER TONIGHT AS
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING DEVELOPING LOW.
A DEVELOPING WAVE NOW SEEN NEAR 46N 142W WILL DEVELOP TO A 992 MB
LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT.
THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB
JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH
NOW SEEN NEAR 37N 165E.

TWO ISSUES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LOW TONIGHT...WIND AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO REACH 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 18Z NAM12 SHOWS 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING OLYMPICS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z WRFGFS
SHOWS UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
THIS HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND
STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SSW WINDS 55 KT AT 850 MB. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER
THE NORTH CASCADES...AND THE LATEST WRFGFS SHOWS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE MOUNT BAKER AREA IN WHATCOM COUNTY
AND THE MOUNTAINS NW OF DARRINGTON.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND EXTENDED TO INCLUDE
RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE NORTH CASCADES FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY
NORTHWARD MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD REACHING FROM THE N
CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST WED AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN BECOMES
SHOWERY FROM THE NW WED EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU IN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER DEEP LOW
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
PHASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY
IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
EVENTUAL STRUCTURE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND WHERE IT MOVES
INLAND ON SATURDAY. IT IS A GOOD BET THAT SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND
WINDY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES INLAND SOMEWHERE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY BRINGING WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DECREASE ON SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WARM FRONT
AND LOW APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODEL DETAILS DIFFER...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WET AND BREEZY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AT LEAST
HIGHER PASS LEVEL MIDWEEK AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS COOLING
OFF WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 50S. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND FOR SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD
IN THE INTERIOR FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS LIKELY TO SEE MODERATE FLOODING. IF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SEEN IN THE WRFGFS 4KM VERIFIES...THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER AT POTLATCH COULD SEE MAJOR FLOODING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS SUCH AS THE
QUINAULT...CLEARWATER...HOH...AND BOGACHIEL COULD SEE MINOR
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON LATEST RAINFALL FORECASTS...PORTIONS OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
RIVER IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY AND THE NOOKSACK RIVER IN WHATCOM COUNTY
COULD SEE MINOR FLOODING LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RATHER
INTENSE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND
UNCONTROLLED RIVERS IN THE NORTH CASCADES TO RISE RAPIDLY AND
POSSIBLY FLOOD.  ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUN EAST OF PUGET
SOUND THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD FROM OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS
RAIN DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER/SMR

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT AND PUGET SOUND.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER/SMR


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     FLOOD WATCH SNOHOMISH...SKAGIT...AND WHATCOM COUNTIES MIDDAY
      WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
      PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 212238
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO THE
COAST TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TO
THE NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE RAIN AND WINDY WEATHER TO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE
BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT SITS FROM CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
LIGHTNING BEING OBSERVED 40 TO 70 MILES OFF THE NORTH COAST. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE NORTH COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO BECOME A BIT MORE STABLE LATER TONIGHT AS
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING DEVELOPING LOW.
A DEVELOPING WAVE NOW SEEN NEAR 46N 142W WILL DEVELOP TO A 992 MB
LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT.
THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB
JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH
NOW SEEN NEAR 37N 165E.

TWO ISSUES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LOW TONIGHT...WIND AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO REACH 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 18Z NAM12 SHOWS 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING OLYMPICS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z WRFGFS
SHOWS UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
THIS HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND
STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SSW WINDS 55 KT AT 850 MB. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER
THE NORTH CASCADES...AND THE LATEST WRFGFS SHOWS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE MOUNT BAKER AREA IN WHATCOM COUNTY
AND THE MOUNTAINS NW OF DARRINGTON.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND EXTENDED TO INCLUDE
RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE NORTH CASCADES FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY
NORTHWARD MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD REACHING FROM THE N
CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST WED AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN BECOMES
SHOWERY FROM THE NW WED EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU IN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER DEEP LOW
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
PHASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY
IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
EVENTUAL STRUCTURE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND WHERE IT MOVES
INLAND ON SATURDAY. IT IS A GOOD BET THAT SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND
WINDY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES INLAND SOMEWHERE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY BRINGING WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DECREASE ON SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WARM FRONT
AND LOW APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODEL DETAILS DIFFER...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WET AND BREEZY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AT LEAST
HIGHER PASS LEVEL MIDWEEK AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS COOLING
OFF WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 50S. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND FOR SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD
IN THE INTERIOR FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS LIKELY TO SEE MODERATE FLOODING. IF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SEEN IN THE WRFGFS 4KM VERIFIES...THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER AT POTLATCH COULD SEE MAJOR FLOODING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS SUCH AS THE
QUINAULT...CLEARWATER...HOH...AND BOGACHIEL COULD SEE MINOR
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON LATEST RAINFALL FORECASTS...PORTIONS OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
RIVER IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY AND THE NOOKSACK RIVER IN WHATCOM COUNTY
COULD SEE MINOR FLOODING LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RATHER
INTENSE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND
UNCONTROLLED RIVERS IN THE NORTH CASCADES TO RISE RAPIDLY AND
POSSIBLY FLOOD.  ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUN EAST OF PUGET
SOUND THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD FROM OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS
RAIN DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER/SMR

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT AND PUGET SOUND.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER/SMR


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     FLOOD WATCH SNOHOMISH...SKAGIT...AND WHATCOM COUNTIES MIDDAY
      WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
      PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KPQR 212233
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
333 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG AND BROAD UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO APPROACH. SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE
AND SURFACE LOW GENERATING A BAROCLINIC LEAF CENTERED AROUND 130W
AND NEARLY DUE WEST. AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF POSITIVE LIGHTNING IS
BEING GENERATED THROUGH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LOW. THIS LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW...ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAKER AND A BIT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING WHILE THE GFS HAS KEPT IT MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE. HAVE DECIDED
TO MAINTAIN TONIGHTS FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS BUT FEEL ONLY THE ACTUAL
HIGHER HEADLANDS SUCH AS CAPE FOULWEATHER...CAPE LOOKOUT...AND CAPE
DISAPPOINTMENT WILL REALIZE GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH. THE BEACHES AND
INLAND COMMUNITIES COULD TOUCH GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW.

WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE SOUTH VALLEY AND CENTRAL CASCADES PERHAPS WAITING UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING. ONCE RAIN STARTS IT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH ALL AREAS SEEING POTENTIAL TO GET
AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN WITH PORTIONS OF THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES. REFER TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES BELOW OR THE WEATHER STORY
ON OUR WEB PAGE FOR A GRAPHIC SHOWING DETAILED AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL BE STAYING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE STORM TRACK WITH THIS EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY RISING
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 7 TO 8000 FOOT LEVEL. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS.

STILL HAVE RUNOFF CONCERNS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS. MAIN ONE WILL BE
FOR CLOGGED DRAINS AND CULVERTS BLOCKED BY FALLEN LEAVES. THIS YEARS
BURN SCARS ALSO PRESENT A BIG UNKNOWN WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE GROUND VERSUS IMMEDIATELY RUNNING OFF
AND CARRYING DEBRIS DOWN THE SLOPES. FINALLY...STILL WILL BE KEEPING
AN EYE ON THE COASTAL RIVERS WITH THE GRAYS RIVER SHOWING FORECASTED
RAPID RISES BUT STILL REMAINING A FOOT OR SO BELOW BANKFULL. OTHER
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES IN THE AREA WILL CERTAINLY RUN HIGH BAND MO
MAINSTEM RIVERS LOOK TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGES DESPITE THIS FIRST
HEAVY RAIN EVENT OF THE YEAR.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH EXPECT SEE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANOTHER
LOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BEGIN SENDING ANOTHER WARM FRONT
NORTH. THESE RAINS WILL DRIFT NORTH WITH INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF SALEM STAYING SOMEWHAT DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PAC NW. PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME IN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND 30 KT
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. STEADIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO SPREAD STEADY RAIN IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT AFTER 15Z. PYLE


&&

.MARINE...S/SW WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WE STILL EXPECT HIGH END GALE FORCE
GUSTS NEAR 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT...WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50
TO 55 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING
TOMORROW AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.

A FAIRLY CONSTANT WESTERLY SWELL NEAR 10 FT IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 11 TO 13 FT
RANGE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS MAY APPROACH
20 FT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DURING THE PERIOD OF
HIGHEST WINDS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONT IS BEING MODELED FOR LATER FRI
INTO SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES TO THE FCST
FOR THIS PERIOD. BUT IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SOLID GALE WITH SEAS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY. PYLE


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 212150
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to east this evening, leaving only some isolated
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. From late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, the next frontal wave and round of precipitation
comes through. The active pattern continues into early next week,
with the potential for more widespread rain late Friday into
Saturday, then again late Monday into next Tuesday, as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...A MOIST PACIFIC STORM WITH SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTIONS TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

Tonight through Wednesday: Satellite imagery shows a deep upper
level low pressure system circulating in the Gulf Alaska. Water
vapor imagery shows a deep fetch of moisture extending out along
40N to an area of sub-tropical convection in the central Pacific.
Model guidance indicates P-wats of up around 1.25 inches directed
toward the Pacific Northwest. Much of this moisture content will
be squeezed out along the windward slopes of the northern Cascade
Mtns, but more than enough of this moisture is expected to
translate east of the Cascades for soaking rains across much of
the region beginning tonight.

The warm front shows up rather nicely on satellite, which
currently is just off the WA/OR coast. There is a good amount of
enhancement on both the water vapor and IR satellite imagery in
the warm sector of the low behind the leading edge of the warm
front. This will be the area to keep an eye on trough tonight for
periods of moderate to heavy rain. Much of this rainfall will
remain along the Cascade crest this evening into the early
portions of the overnight period. This moisture will begin to
push east of the Cascade Mtns early Wednesday morning. Strong
isentropic ascent will occur across the northwestern portion of
the forecast area with much of the precip falling northwest of a
line from about Ritzville to Sandpoint. Much of the southeastern
portion of the forecast area will have to wait for rain until the
cold front pushes further onshore after tomorrow afternoon.

*Rain Amounts: Easterly to southeasterly winds at low levels will
 result in good upslope flow into the East Slopes of the Northern
 Cascades over into the Okanogan Highlands. These areas are
 expected to see a range of 0.75-1.50 inches of rainfall over a 24
 hour period tonight through Wednesday. Higher amounts closer to 2
 inches will be possible up near the Cascade crest. The Wenatchee
 Area, Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Vly will see rainfall
 amounts closer to a half of an inch over this period; and the
 Moses Lake Area, Upper Columbia Basin into the Northeast Mtns
 will see rainfall amounts between 0.10 to around 0.25 inches
 through Wednesday.

*Impacts: There is a small chance for some rises to small streams
 and mud slides due to heavy rain. The primary area of concern
 will be along the East Slopes of the Northern Cascade Mtns and
 primarily in or near recent burn scars. Rainfall intensity will
 likely not be strong enough for Flash Flooding concerns; however,
 rainfall on recent burn scars will likely lead to more rapid
 runoff than normally observed in these kind of events.

*Snow: Snow levels will be up around 6,500 feet through this
 period. This will result in snow only up over the highest peaks
 and primarily over the peaks in the Cascades.

*Winds: A southeasterly surface pressure gradient will tighten tonight
 into Wednesday. Winds at 850 mbs will increase up to around 30-35
 kts. Since the region will be exclusively in the warm sector
 during this period, mixing will be limited somewhat; this will be
 especially so in locations where it is raining. A better chance
 for better mixing will be across the basin over into the Central
 Panhandle Mtns where the rain will take a bit longer to form.
 This is expected to result in breezy southerly winds with
 sustained speeds of around 15-20 mph and gusts up to around 25-30
 mph.

*Temperatures: Expect cooler temperatures with the rain to across
 the northwest portion of the forecast area on Wednesday. High
 temperatures will be more mild across the southeast portion of
 the forecast area and about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. /SVH

Wednesday night through Friday night: An active weather pattern
continues with a parade of systems tapping some subtropical
moisture. First from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning a
cold front pushes across the Cascades and advances toward Idaho
overnight into Thursday morning. Driven east by a mid-level
disturbance and a 130kt jet stream, this system is featuring
modest lift. The subtropical moisture plume directed into the
region ahead of this boundary pushes PWATs up toward 0.60 to 1.0
inches (or 150-240% of normal). This combination of lift and
moisture will bring likely rain between Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning across a large portion of eastern WA and north
ID. The lowest threat will be toward the L-C Valley and Camas
Prairie, especially before Thursday morning, and chances will
begin to wane in the lee of the Cascades late in the evening to
overnight.

From Thursday morning to early Thursday evening the frontal
boundary stalls near the central ID/MT border through northeast
OR, just south of Lookout Pass to the Blue Mountains, with the jet
just north of the front. Regional PWATs drop to between 0.40 to
0.70 inches (or 100-170% of normal). This is still a decent amount
of moisture. The proximity of the front and the enhanced lift near
the LFQ of the jet will keep precipitation likely across the Idaho
Panhandle through the Blues and near the Cascade crest. Chances
will also remain moderately high across the eastern third of WA,
with the proximity of that LFQ of the jet, but will be waning in
the lee of the Cascades.

From late Thursday evening to Friday morning the atmosphere dries
out a little more, with the core of deeper plume of moisture
briefly sagging toward southern Oregon. This plus weak shortwave
ridging nosing in ahead of the next system will further decrease
the precipitation through this period. The best chances of
precipitation during this time frame will be near southeast WA and
the ID Panhandle mountains, as well as near the Cascade crest.

From Friday afternoon through Friday night the next low pressure
system deepens as it lifts north from the CA/OR coast toward the
WA/OR coast. With the increased southerly flow a warm front lifts
into the region, with the plume of subtropical moisture coming
back north with it. Models suggest this should evolve as a band of
precipitation which envelopes areas along the WA/OR border through
the Idaho Clearwaters by later Friday afternoon, then lifts north
across much of remainder of central and eastern WA and north ID
early Friday evening, before the focus lifts toward the northern
mountains and backs against the Cascades overnight into Saturday
morning. So some modest precipitation amounts are possible:
potentially between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with local
amounts over a half inch to an inch toward the Cascades. This
could mean some slow rises on creeks and streams and other waterways
near the Cascades, with minor mudslides/debris flows. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Tuesday...A trough off the coast starts moving
in on Saturday with a decent cold front, gusty winds with near
or above normal temperatures and higher mountain snow. Sunday
will see a high pressure ridge building in for a brief break in
the weather. Then for Monday into Monday night, there will be the
next wet weather system on the way with Pacific moisture moving
in. After that it will be a fairly active weather pattern in the
future with multiple storm systems from the west especially for
the mountains but overall, no severe weather is expected for this
time of the forecast. /TC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low stratus will linger around the northern and eastern
basin, as well as, into the ID Panhandle through this afternoon.
This will impact the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW TAF locations. The stratus
deck is expected to lift into a stratocumulus deck through the
afternoon with VFR cigs possible by the late afternoon hours. Low
level flow will back to out of the southeast overnight as a moist
Pacific storm system approaches the region. Strong warm air
advection should clear out the low clouds tonight with rainfall
forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by Wednesday
morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing after 12Z with
cigs lowering to MVFR category. Low level wind shear will become a
concern as well with winds increasing significantly off the
surface and veering to out of the southwest; however, low level
wind shear is not mentioned in the TAFs as it does not look to be
strong enough. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  59  48  59  43  56 /  10  60  90  50  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  40  57  45  58  41  55 /  10  40  90  70  30  40
Pullman        43  62  47  59  45  58 /   0  20  70  60  30  50
Lewiston       44  66  51  63  48  61 /   0  10  30  60  40  60
Colville       44  54  46  57  41  56 /  20 100 100  60  20  20
Sandpoint      40  55  43  55  38  55 /  10  60  90  70  40  20
Kellogg        38  57  45  54  41  53 /  10  10  80  80  60  40
Moses Lake     49  59  48  64  43  58 /  20  90  90  20  10  50
Wenatchee      48  55  48  61  44  55 /  70 100  80  30  10  60
Omak           46  52  45  59  40  55 /  80 100 100  40  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 212150
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to east this evening, leaving only some isolated
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. From late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, the next frontal wave and round of precipitation
comes through. The active pattern continues into early next week,
with the potential for more widespread rain late Friday into
Saturday, then again late Monday into next Tuesday, as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...A MOIST PACIFIC STORM WITH SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTIONS TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

Tonight through Wednesday: Satellite imagery shows a deep upper
level low pressure system circulating in the Gulf Alaska. Water
vapor imagery shows a deep fetch of moisture extending out along
40N to an area of sub-tropical convection in the central Pacific.
Model guidance indicates P-wats of up around 1.25 inches directed
toward the Pacific Northwest. Much of this moisture content will
be squeezed out along the windward slopes of the northern Cascade
Mtns, but more than enough of this moisture is expected to
translate east of the Cascades for soaking rains across much of
the region beginning tonight.

The warm front shows up rather nicely on satellite, which
currently is just off the WA/OR coast. There is a good amount of
enhancement on both the water vapor and IR satellite imagery in
the warm sector of the low behind the leading edge of the warm
front. This will be the area to keep an eye on trough tonight for
periods of moderate to heavy rain. Much of this rainfall will
remain along the Cascade crest this evening into the early
portions of the overnight period. This moisture will begin to
push east of the Cascade Mtns early Wednesday morning. Strong
isentropic ascent will occur across the northwestern portion of
the forecast area with much of the precip falling northwest of a
line from about Ritzville to Sandpoint. Much of the southeastern
portion of the forecast area will have to wait for rain until the
cold front pushes further onshore after tomorrow afternoon.

*Rain Amounts: Easterly to southeasterly winds at low levels will
 result in good upslope flow into the East Slopes of the Northern
 Cascades over into the Okanogan Highlands. These areas are
 expected to see a range of 0.75-1.50 inches of rainfall over a 24
 hour period tonight through Wednesday. Higher amounts closer to 2
 inches will be possible up near the Cascade crest. The Wenatchee
 Area, Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Vly will see rainfall
 amounts closer to a half of an inch over this period; and the
 Moses Lake Area, Upper Columbia Basin into the Northeast Mtns
 will see rainfall amounts between 0.10 to around 0.25 inches
 through Wednesday.

*Impacts: There is a small chance for some rises to small streams
 and mud slides due to heavy rain. The primary area of concern
 will be along the East Slopes of the Northern Cascade Mtns and
 primarily in or near recent burn scars. Rainfall intensity will
 likely not be strong enough for Flash Flooding concerns; however,
 rainfall on recent burn scars will likely lead to more rapid
 runoff than normally observed in these kind of events.

*Snow: Snow levels will be up around 6,500 feet through this
 period. This will result in snow only up over the highest peaks
 and primarily over the peaks in the Cascades.

*Winds: A southeasterly surface pressure gradient will tighten tonight
 into Wednesday. Winds at 850 mbs will increase up to around 30-35
 kts. Since the region will be exclusively in the warm sector
 during this period, mixing will be limited somewhat; this will be
 especially so in locations where it is raining. A better chance
 for better mixing will be across the basin over into the Central
 Panhandle Mtns where the rain will take a bit longer to form.
 This is expected to result in breezy southerly winds with
 sustained speeds of around 15-20 mph and gusts up to around 25-30
 mph.

*Temperatures: Expect cooler temperatures with the rain to across
 the northwest portion of the forecast area on Wednesday. High
 temperatures will be more mild across the southeast portion of
 the forecast area and about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. /SVH

Wednesday night through Friday night: An active weather pattern
continues with a parade of systems tapping some subtropical
moisture. First from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning a
cold front pushes across the Cascades and advances toward Idaho
overnight into Thursday morning. Driven east by a mid-level
disturbance and a 130kt jet stream, this system is featuring
modest lift. The subtropical moisture plume directed into the
region ahead of this boundary pushes PWATs up toward 0.60 to 1.0
inches (or 150-240% of normal). This combination of lift and
moisture will bring likely rain between Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning across a large portion of eastern WA and north
ID. The lowest threat will be toward the L-C Valley and Camas
Prairie, especially before Thursday morning, and chances will
begin to wane in the lee of the Cascades late in the evening to
overnight.

From Thursday morning to early Thursday evening the frontal
boundary stalls near the central ID/MT border through northeast
OR, just south of Lookout Pass to the Blue Mountains, with the jet
just north of the front. Regional PWATs drop to between 0.40 to
0.70 inches (or 100-170% of normal). This is still a decent amount
of moisture. The proximity of the front and the enhanced lift near
the LFQ of the jet will keep precipitation likely across the Idaho
Panhandle through the Blues and near the Cascade crest. Chances
will also remain moderately high across the eastern third of WA,
with the proximity of that LFQ of the jet, but will be waning in
the lee of the Cascades.

From late Thursday evening to Friday morning the atmosphere dries
out a little more, with the core of deeper plume of moisture
briefly sagging toward southern Oregon. This plus weak shortwave
ridging nosing in ahead of the next system will further decrease
the precipitation through this period. The best chances of
precipitation during this time frame will be near southeast WA and
the ID Panhandle mountains, as well as near the Cascade crest.

From Friday afternoon through Friday night the next low pressure
system deepens as it lifts north from the CA/OR coast toward the
WA/OR coast. With the increased southerly flow a warm front lifts
into the region, with the plume of subtropical moisture coming
back north with it. Models suggest this should evolve as a band of
precipitation which envelopes areas along the WA/OR border through
the Idaho Clearwaters by later Friday afternoon, then lifts north
across much of remainder of central and eastern WA and north ID
early Friday evening, before the focus lifts toward the northern
mountains and backs against the Cascades overnight into Saturday
morning. So some modest precipitation amounts are possible:
potentially between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with local
amounts over a half inch to an inch toward the Cascades. This
could mean some slow rises on creeks and streams and other waterways
near the Cascades, with minor mudslides/debris flows. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Tuesday...A trough off the coast starts moving
in on Saturday with a decent cold front, gusty winds with near
or above normal temperatures and higher mountain snow. Sunday
will see a high pressure ridge building in for a brief break in
the weather. Then for Monday into Monday night, there will be the
next wet weather system on the way with Pacific moisture moving
in. After that it will be a fairly active weather pattern in the
future with multiple storm systems from the west especially for
the mountains but overall, no severe weather is expected for this
time of the forecast. /TC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low stratus will linger around the northern and eastern
basin, as well as, into the ID Panhandle through this afternoon.
This will impact the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW TAF locations. The stratus
deck is expected to lift into a stratocumulus deck through the
afternoon with VFR cigs possible by the late afternoon hours. Low
level flow will back to out of the southeast overnight as a moist
Pacific storm system approaches the region. Strong warm air
advection should clear out the low clouds tonight with rainfall
forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by Wednesday
morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing after 12Z with
cigs lowering to MVFR category. Low level wind shear will become a
concern as well with winds increasing significantly off the
surface and veering to out of the southwest; however, low level
wind shear is not mentioned in the TAFs as it does not look to be
strong enough. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  59  48  59  43  56 /  10  60  90  50  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  40  57  45  58  41  55 /  10  40  90  70  30  40
Pullman        43  62  47  59  45  58 /   0  20  70  60  30  50
Lewiston       44  66  51  63  48  61 /   0  10  30  60  40  60
Colville       44  54  46  57  41  56 /  20 100 100  60  20  20
Sandpoint      40  55  43  55  38  55 /  10  60  90  70  40  20
Kellogg        38  57  45  54  41  53 /  10  10  80  80  60  40
Moses Lake     49  59  48  64  43  58 /  20  90  90  20  10  50
Wenatchee      48  55  48  61  44  55 /  70 100  80  30  10  60
Omak           46  52  45  59  40  55 /  80 100 100  40  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 211811
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1111 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low stratus will linger around the northern and eastern
basin, as well as, into the ID Panhandle through this afternoon.
This will impact the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW TAF locations. The stratus
deck is expected to lift into a stratocumulus deck through the
afternoon with VFR cigs possible by the late afternoon hours. Low
level flow will back to out of the southeast overnight as a moist
Pacific storm system approaches the region. Strong warm air
advection should clear out the low clouds tonight with rainfall
forming northwest of a line from KMWH to KCQV by Wednesday
morning. KEAT will likely see light rain developing after 12Z with
cigs lowering to MVFR category. Low level wind shear will become a
concern as well with winds increasing significantly off the
surface and veering to out of the southwest; however, low level
wind shear is not mentioned in the TAFs as it does not look to be
strong enough. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211644
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
944 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
CLAPS OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT
BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...SPREADING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PASS BY. ANOTHER WET
AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THUS FAR WITH THE 12Z OUTPUT.
THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFFSHORE. THE OCCLUSION IS SITUATED
JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SETUP PLACES
OUR REGION SQUARELY IN THE WARMING SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE TO SEE A COASTAL JET DEVELOP
WITH NAM12 AND RAP INDICATED PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 67 MPH CENTERED
AROUND 900 MB. THUS FEEL MOST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WILL PEAK OUT
AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WINDS AT THAT LEVEL VEERING MORE SW THAN THE SOUTH WINDS TRAPPED
ALONG THE TERRAIN. WILL STILL CARRY THE HIGHER SPEEDS TONIGHT IN THE
PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS THE EXPOSED HIGHER HEADLANDS SUCH AS CAPE
FOULWEATHER...CAPE LOOKOUT...AND CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT CERTAINLY COULD
FULLY REALIZE THOSE HIGHER SPEEDS. RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN ON TRACK AS
EXPECTED FROM OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR
THIS SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
COASTAL SITES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD HEAVIER RAIN ONTO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND INLAND TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF MVFR CIG MAY FORM THROUGH ABOUT 21Z IN SHOWERS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO SPREAD STEADY RAIN IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...S/SW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
GALE FORCE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED. SOME COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT MAY
BRING A FEW 50 TO 55 KT GUSTS TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SEAS
MAY APPROACH 20 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...BUT THE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 211558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IT WILL REMAIN
WET ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE
WEATHERWISE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS CHARGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER
STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

FIRST FOR TODAY...A PASSING UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER NW
WASHINGTON. AN OCCLUSION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR 54N 141W EXTENDS SSW FROM NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
INTO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS OCCLUSION HAS
QUITE A BIT OF TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL ADD SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE OCCLUSION NICKS THAT AREA. TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OCCLUSION STALLS OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN A DEVELOPING WAVE
NOW SEEN NEAR 43N 141W CHARGES EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOPS TO AROUND A 992 MB LOW AS IT HITS SOUTH CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH NOW SEEN NEAR 35N 165E. TWO ISSUES ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS LOW...WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO
REACH THE HIGHER END OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND THE 00Z
WRFGFS MESOSCALE MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE
SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS
FROM THE NAM12 AND 9-12 INCHES FROM THE WRFGFS IN A 12-15 HR PERIOD.
WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE MODELS...THIS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT
IS TYPICALLY SEEN IN EVEN HEAVIER EVENTS ALONG THE SW OLYMPICS. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED FROM MASON COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD WED REACHING FROM
THE N CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST. THE NAM12 HINTS THAT RATHER
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CASCADES WED
MORNING.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER OUT...ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST
12Z NAM12...ARE SHOWING GOOD SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE REMAINS OF
HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THIS LOW
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THEN POSSIBLY DECAYS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER
VIGOROUS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH WIND
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN WA...BUT THE EXACT
STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR. IT IS
WORTH NOTING BUT NOT BITING ON ANY ONE SOLUTION JUST YET AS A LOT
CAN CHANGE. THE FORECAST LOOKS COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE
MAY BRING DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER ON MON. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
IS BEING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING RAINFALL RATES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
IS LIKELY TO FLOOD. WHILE RIVERS SUCH AS THE QUINAULT AND CLEARWATER
CAN HANDLE A LOT OF WATER...THEY DONT TYPICALLY SEE 9-12 INCHES FALL
IN A 12 TO 15 HOUR PERIOD. IT THAT OCCURS...FLOODING IS LIKELY ON
PORTIONS OF THOSE RIVERS AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE ISSUED.
THE BOGACHIEL AND OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MODELS DO
NOT SHOW FLOODING IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...IF THE INCOMING WRFGFS
4KM AND ECMWF SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...A FLOOD WATCH
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME RIVERS IN WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON WESTERN
WASHINGTON RIVERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET TODAY WITH LOWER CEILING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BUT LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ALL OTHER WATERS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
      STRAIT  OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND
      ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
      SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 211558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IT WILL REMAIN
WET ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE
WEATHERWISE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS CHARGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER
STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

FIRST FOR TODAY...A PASSING UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER NW
WASHINGTON. AN OCCLUSION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR 54N 141W EXTENDS SSW FROM NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
INTO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS OCCLUSION HAS
QUITE A BIT OF TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL ADD SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE OCCLUSION NICKS THAT AREA. TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OCCLUSION STALLS OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN A DEVELOPING WAVE
NOW SEEN NEAR 43N 141W CHARGES EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOPS TO AROUND A 992 MB LOW AS IT HITS SOUTH CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH NOW SEEN NEAR 35N 165E. TWO ISSUES ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS LOW...WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO
REACH THE HIGHER END OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND THE 00Z
WRFGFS MESOSCALE MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE
SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS
FROM THE NAM12 AND 9-12 INCHES FROM THE WRFGFS IN A 12-15 HR PERIOD.
WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE MODELS...THIS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT
IS TYPICALLY SEEN IN EVEN HEAVIER EVENTS ALONG THE SW OLYMPICS. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED FROM MASON COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD WED REACHING FROM
THE N CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST. THE NAM12 HINTS THAT RATHER
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CASCADES WED
MORNING.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER OUT...ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST
12Z NAM12...ARE SHOWING GOOD SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE REMAINS OF
HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THIS LOW
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THEN POSSIBLY DECAYS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER
VIGOROUS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH WIND
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN WA...BUT THE EXACT
STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR. IT IS
WORTH NOTING BUT NOT BITING ON ANY ONE SOLUTION JUST YET AS A LOT
CAN CHANGE. THE FORECAST LOOKS COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE
MAY BRING DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER ON MON. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
IS BEING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING RAINFALL RATES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
IS LIKELY TO FLOOD. WHILE RIVERS SUCH AS THE QUINAULT AND CLEARWATER
CAN HANDLE A LOT OF WATER...THEY DONT TYPICALLY SEE 9-12 INCHES FALL
IN A 12 TO 15 HOUR PERIOD. IT THAT OCCURS...FLOODING IS LIKELY ON
PORTIONS OF THOSE RIVERS AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE ISSUED.
THE BOGACHIEL AND OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MODELS DO
NOT SHOW FLOODING IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...IF THE INCOMING WRFGFS
4KM AND ECMWF SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...A FLOOD WATCH
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME RIVERS IN WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON WESTERN
WASHINGTON RIVERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET TODAY WITH LOWER CEILING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BUT LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ALL OTHER WATERS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
      STRAIT  OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND
      ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
      SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 211558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IT WILL REMAIN
WET ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE
WEATHERWISE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS CHARGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER
STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

FIRST FOR TODAY...A PASSING UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER NW
WASHINGTON. AN OCCLUSION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR 54N 141W EXTENDS SSW FROM NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
INTO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS OCCLUSION HAS
QUITE A BIT OF TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL ADD SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE OCCLUSION NICKS THAT AREA. TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OCCLUSION STALLS OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN A DEVELOPING WAVE
NOW SEEN NEAR 43N 141W CHARGES EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOPS TO AROUND A 992 MB LOW AS IT HITS SOUTH CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH NOW SEEN NEAR 35N 165E. TWO ISSUES ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS LOW...WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO
REACH THE HIGHER END OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND THE 00Z
WRFGFS MESOSCALE MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE
SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS
FROM THE NAM12 AND 9-12 INCHES FROM THE WRFGFS IN A 12-15 HR PERIOD.
WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE MODELS...THIS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT
IS TYPICALLY SEEN IN EVEN HEAVIER EVENTS ALONG THE SW OLYMPICS. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED FROM MASON COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD WED REACHING FROM
THE N CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST. THE NAM12 HINTS THAT RATHER
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CASCADES WED
MORNING.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER OUT...ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST
12Z NAM12...ARE SHOWING GOOD SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE REMAINS OF
HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THIS LOW
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THEN POSSIBLY DECAYS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER
VIGOROUS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH WIND
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN WA...BUT THE EXACT
STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR. IT IS
WORTH NOTING BUT NOT BITING ON ANY ONE SOLUTION JUST YET AS A LOT
CAN CHANGE. THE FORECAST LOOKS COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE
MAY BRING DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER ON MON. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
IS BEING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING RAINFALL RATES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
IS LIKELY TO FLOOD. WHILE RIVERS SUCH AS THE QUINAULT AND CLEARWATER
CAN HANDLE A LOT OF WATER...THEY DONT TYPICALLY SEE 9-12 INCHES FALL
IN A 12 TO 15 HOUR PERIOD. IT THAT OCCURS...FLOODING IS LIKELY ON
PORTIONS OF THOSE RIVERS AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE ISSUED.
THE BOGACHIEL AND OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MODELS DO
NOT SHOW FLOODING IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...IF THE INCOMING WRFGFS
4KM AND ECMWF SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...A FLOOD WATCH
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME RIVERS IN WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON WESTERN
WASHINGTON RIVERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET TODAY WITH LOWER CEILING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BUT LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ALL OTHER WATERS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
      STRAIT  OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND
      ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
      SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 211558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IT WILL REMAIN
WET ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE
WEATHERWISE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS CHARGE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING RATHER
STRONG AS COLD AIR DUMPS OUT OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW.

FIRST FOR TODAY...A PASSING UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER NW
WASHINGTON. AN OCCLUSION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR 54N 141W EXTENDS SSW FROM NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
INTO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS OCCLUSION HAS
QUITE A BIT OF TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL ADD SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE OCCLUSION NICKS THAT AREA. TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OCCLUSION STALLS OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN A DEVELOPING WAVE
NOW SEEN NEAR 43N 141W CHARGES EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOPS TO AROUND A 992 MB LOW AS IT HITS SOUTH CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT 300 MB JET THAT IS CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH NOW SEEN NEAR 35N 165E. TWO ISSUES ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS LOW...WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND IS LIKELY TO
REACH THE HIGHER END OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE NORTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED. QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM12 AND THE 00Z
WRFGFS MESOSCALE MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAIN FOREST AREAS OF THE
SW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS
FROM THE NAM12 AND 9-12 INCHES FROM THE WRFGFS IN A 12-15 HR PERIOD.
WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE MODELS...THIS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT
IS TYPICALLY SEEN IN EVEN HEAVIER EVENTS ALONG THE SW OLYMPICS. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED FROM MASON COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD WED REACHING FROM
THE N CASCADES TO THE NW OREGON COAST. THE NAM12 HINTS THAT RATHER
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CASCADES WED
MORNING.

BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
IN STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER OUT...ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST
12Z NAM12...ARE SHOWING GOOD SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS ENERGY DUMPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC PHASES WITH THE REMAINS OF
HURRICANE ANA THAT HAS RECENTLY IMPACTED WESTERN HAWAII. THIS LOW
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THEN POSSIBLY DECAYS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER
VIGOROUS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH WIND
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN WA...BUT THE EXACT
STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR. IT IS
WORTH NOTING BUT NOT BITING ON ANY ONE SOLUTION JUST YET AS A LOT
CAN CHANGE. THE FORECAST LOOKS COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A RIDGE
MAY BRING DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER ON MON. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
IS BEING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING RAINFALL RATES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
IS LIKELY TO FLOOD. WHILE RIVERS SUCH AS THE QUINAULT AND CLEARWATER
CAN HANDLE A LOT OF WATER...THEY DONT TYPICALLY SEE 9-12 INCHES FALL
IN A 12 TO 15 HOUR PERIOD. IT THAT OCCURS...FLOODING IS LIKELY ON
PORTIONS OF THOSE RIVERS AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE ISSUED.
THE BOGACHIEL AND OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MODELS DO
NOT SHOW FLOODING IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...IF THE INCOMING WRFGFS
4KM AND ECMWF SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...A FLOOD WATCH
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME RIVERS IN WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON WESTERN
WASHINGTON RIVERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND WIND. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS MOSTLY 4000-7000 FEET TODAY WITH LOWER CEILING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS.

KSEA...GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BUT LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN
DEVELOPS. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
MOST WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ALL OTHER WATERS.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE STORMY WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL GO. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON...CLALLAM...JEFFERSON...AND GRAYS HARBOR
      COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
     WIND ADVISORY COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUANS...WESTERN
       WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF
      JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
      LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
      STRAIT  OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND
      ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET
      SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAY HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KOTX 211153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain from slow moving cold front has shifted east of all
forecast sites save PUW and LWS. These sites will see rain end
before 15z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible until the threat shifts
east...but confidence is low. Elsewhere...the main forecast issue
this morning is widespread low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs impacting
the remaining site. Not sure how extensive or thick this
cloudiness is due to high clouds blocking satellite fog
product...so leaned toward conditional climatology which suggests
it should begin to burn off between 17-19z. Confidence is not high
though. The next moist front will track into the Cascades around
04-06z this evening which will likely bring rains to EAT and
possibly MWH late in the forecast period. This should bring
another round of MVFR cigs. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 211153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain from slow moving cold front has shifted east of all
forecast sites save PUW and LWS. These sites will see rain end
before 15z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible until the threat shifts
east...but confidence is low. Elsewhere...the main forecast issue
this morning is widespread low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs impacting
the remaining site. Not sure how extensive or thick this
cloudiness is due to high clouds blocking satellite fog
product...so leaned toward conditional climatology which suggests
it should begin to burn off between 17-19z. Confidence is not high
though. The next moist front will track into the Cascades around
04-06z this evening which will likely bring rains to EAT and
possibly MWH late in the forecast period. This should bring
another round of MVFR cigs. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 211153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain from slow moving cold front has shifted east of all
forecast sites save PUW and LWS. These sites will see rain end
before 15z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible until the threat shifts
east...but confidence is low. Elsewhere...the main forecast issue
this morning is widespread low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs impacting
the remaining site. Not sure how extensive or thick this
cloudiness is due to high clouds blocking satellite fog
product...so leaned toward conditional climatology which suggests
it should begin to burn off between 17-19z. Confidence is not high
though. The next moist front will track into the Cascades around
04-06z this evening which will likely bring rains to EAT and
possibly MWH late in the forecast period. This should bring
another round of MVFR cigs. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 211153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain from slow moving cold front has shifted east of all
forecast sites save PUW and LWS. These sites will see rain end
before 15z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible until the threat shifts
east...but confidence is low. Elsewhere...the main forecast issue
this morning is widespread low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs impacting
the remaining site. Not sure how extensive or thick this
cloudiness is due to high clouds blocking satellite fog
product...so leaned toward conditional climatology which suggests
it should begin to burn off between 17-19z. Confidence is not high
though. The next moist front will track into the Cascades around
04-06z this evening which will likely bring rains to EAT and
possibly MWH late in the forecast period. This should bring
another round of MVFR cigs. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211052
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD...AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE CLAPS
OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT BASIN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW MOVER...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG COASTAL WINDS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND
PASS BY. ANOTHER WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR THIS
SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.

ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RAIN
RETURNS TO THE COAST...REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. /27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING HIGH END SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
45 TO 48 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW
GUSTS POP UP NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
DECIDING ON THAT. A COASTAL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT ENHANCING WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AND
BECOME STEEPER TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GALES.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




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