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000
FXUS66 KPQR 290909
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
210 am PDT Sun May 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system over southern British
Columbia will persist today, bringing onshore flow to southwest
Washington and parts of northwest Oregon. This will keep a small
chance for some precipitation across the northern and coastal parts
of the forecast area. Upper level ridging will start to build Sunday
night, then strengthen Memorial Day and Tuesday, resulting in much
warmer and drier conditions. Daytime temperatures are expected to
cool a bit late in the week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)...A shortwave trough in
water vapor pictures was off the WA coast early Sun morning near
128w, rotating around the base of the BC upper level trough. Low
level flow was generally onshore across the forecast area, with a
fairly solid area of low clouds banked up against the coast and
coast range, and to a lesser extent the n part of the Cascades.
Surface observations and radar indicated scattered showers were
mainly over western WA and off the WA coast. As the shortwave moves
e across the Pacific NW today, will keep in some low pops for light
rain or drizzle this morning, mainly for areas where clouds had
already filled in. Will also hang on to a slight chance of showers
across the n this afternoon. Pops drop off quickly by evening as the
upper trough pushes off to the east, and ridging aloft begins to
build in from the west. With the trough brushing across and onshore
flow, may see high temps today a couple degrees cooler than Sat.

Mon and Tue models agree on the upper ridge shifting inland over the
Pacific NW. Low level flow turns more northerly, and eventually
offshore for most areas by Tue morning as a thermally induced
surface trough builds n up the Oregon coast. The trough appears
likely to move inland into the Coast Range by Tue afternoon, turning
flow back onshore on the coast. Dry weather and warming temps will
be the result, with inland high temps approaching 90 Tue afternoon
as model h8 temps rise to near 18 deg c. Should still be warm on the
coast Tue morning, before onshore flow brings cooling marine air in
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday...The upper level ridge
will persist over the Pac NW through Wednesday keeping temps on the
warmer side of things. Models continue to show 850mb temps near 20C.
With the thermal trough shifting inland slightly on Wednesday this
should allow temps in the interior to warm significantly, with
widespread afternoon highs around 90F likely. SW flow aloft through
the end of the week likely to keep the region dry. Although still
warmer than normal through the end of the week under ridging aloft,
onshore flow should provide some moderation in temps late in the
week.
&&

.AVIATION...Weak front over far northwest Oregon this am is
maintaining onshore flow. Mix of MVFR and VFR along the coast this
am, along with patchy drizzle. These clouds continue to work
inland up the Columbia River and over the Coast Ranges this am.
Still think will see these most inland extent of the MVFR clouds
may reach KPDX/KTTD by 13Z.

Other area of clouds over the Cascades continue to backbuild, with
that deck around 4000 ft. This deck will gradually break apart
between 18z and 20z, with scattered clouds inland after 21z.

PDX AND APPROACHES...A 4000 ft cloud deck will remain through 20z,
then break apart and scatter by 22z. While not likely, there is
small chance that will see scattered to broken clouds of 2000 ft
between 12z and 16z.                       TAFcaster...rockey.
&&

.MARINE...High pressure over the northeast Pacific will build
today and Monday. Meanwhile, thermal low pressure over NW
California will build north along SW Oregon coast. This will
bring typical early summer of gusty north to northwesterly winds,
with the strongest winds to south of Cascade Head. While may see a
few gusts 20 to 25 kt around Florence southward later today. But,
it appears strongest winds will be Mon and Tue
afternoons/evenings, where winds 15 to 25 kt to south of Cascade
Head. To north of Cascade head, may see a few gusts reach 25 kt,
but think will be few and far between. Northerly winds continue
for Wed to Fri, but appears gradients will be weaker, with winds
only 10 to 20 kt.

Seas hovering at 3 to 5 ft trough Monday am, but as winds pick up
so will the short period wind waves. will see seas 5 to 8 ft for
late Mon through Wed, with higher seas south of Cascade Head.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.



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000
FXUS66 KSEW 290432
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
932 PM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Showers will continue tonight then gradually diminish
through Sunday as an upper level low over British Columbia moves
slowly east. A strong upper level ridge will build over the region
Monday, bringing mostly sunny and warmer weather for Memorial Day,
then continuing through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The large upper level low over B.C. will hang around
through Sunday, then begin drifting east Sunday night as an upper
level ridge builds just offshore. This will keep showers in the
forecast through Sunday evening before the low is far enough east
for showers to end.

For tonight, a weak warm front moved inland this afternoon and is in
the process of dissipating. A very weak cold front just west of the
north coast will follow tonight. The main impact with from both
features is to keep the lower air mass quite moist. Weak lift
provided by the cold front and an upper level shortwave trough will
keep scattered showers going tonight. Westerly onshore flow has
already re-developed in the Strait of Juan de Fuca so a convergence
zone may end up developing this evening, a little sooner than the
GFS and HRRR indicate.

Scattered showers will continue on Sunday with the low still in the
vicinity but should be diminishing for good Sunday evening. Models
indicate the main shower areas on Sunday will be over the Cascades
and Olympics, and over Puget Sound and the SW interior, particularly
from Seattle to Everett in the convergence zone. The convergence
zone should sag south over Seattle in the afternoon.

With the low heading east Sunday night, shower activity is expected
to end by midnight. Drier northerly flow aloft should allow clouds
to gradually diminish overnight. There is a good chance there will
be some areas of low clouds still hanging around the interior Monday
morning, but these should be gone by mid-day for a sunny afternoon.

Models remain in good agreement that the upper level ridge just
offshore will continue building on Monday then shift over the WA
coast on Tuesday. Northerly low level will prevail on Monday, but
will shift to easterly offshore flow Monday evening as the upper
level ridge axis moves over the coast. The easterly flow will pump
temperatures up and allow a thermally induced surface trough to form
along the coast. GFS/ECMWF MOS guidance for Sea-Tac shows highs in
the lower 70s Monday, warming to near 80 on Tuesday as the offshore
flow cranks up. Kam

.LONG TERM...previous discussion from the 3 PM AFD...a similar
pattern Wednesday, with both the upper ridge and the thermal trough
moving a bit east, should make that day the warmest day inland with
highs mainly in the 80s. On Thursday and Friday the surface flow
turns onshore, which implies at least some morning clouds. A recent
idea in the GFS is upper level moisture arriving from the south.
Have introduced a chance of thunderstorms in the Cascades Thursday
afternoon and evening.

The GFS brings a weak system onto the coast Friday so have put a
chance of showers there. Models become dry again on Saturday. High
temperatures will fall from around 80 on Thursday into the 70s on
Friday, then rebound somewhat on Saturday. Burke

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper level trough over b.c. and Washington will shift eastward
Sunday. Light northwesterly flow aloft becoming northerly by Sunday
night. Generally stable and moist in the lower levels.

Cigs will vary across the area mostly ranging from MVFR to VFR.
Showers may bring cigs down to IFR at times briefly. Scattered
showers can be expected to continue through Sunday...especially over
higher terrain and in a possible central Puget Sound convergence
zone which may affect the KSEA/KBFI/KPAE terminals. Improvement to
VFR conditions is expected Sunday afternoon.

KSEA...South to Southwest wind 8-12 KT. Mainly MVFR cigs through
Sunday morning before improving to mostly VFR stratus.
However...periods of IFR during showers is likely tonight. The
convergence zone could approach the terminal Sunday morning with a
chance of a northerly wind shift less than 10 KT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...
Post-frontal onshore flow through Sunday. Small Craft Advisory westerly
winds through the Strait of Juan De Fuca is likely tonight and again
Sunday afternoon and Evening. Winds will generally stay below 20 KT all
other waters through Sunday afternoon.

High pressure will build offshore on Memorial Day. This will give the
potential for northwesterly winds up to 25 KT over the coastal zones
Monday afternoon and evening. Winds will become northerly inland and
dominate on Tuesday as a thermally induced trough of low pressure
nudges northward along the western Oregon and south Washington coasts.
The trough will push inland Wednesday with a marine push likely in
the evening. DTM

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory Central and East Strait through late
tonight.


&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KPQR 290358
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
858 PM PDT Sat May 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system over southern British
Columbia will persist through Sunday, bringing onshore flow to
southwest Washington and parts of northwest Oregon. This will keep a
chance for some precipitation across the northern parts of the
forecast area. Upper level ridging will start to build Sunday night,
then strengthen Memorial Day and Tuesday, resulting in much warmer
and drier conditions. Daytime temperatures are expected to cool a bit
late in the week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)...The models continue to show
a weak frontal zone will drag across the southwest Washington and
parts of northwest Oregon tonight and Sunday morning, bringing
areas of light rain or drizzle to the area. The best chances will be
along the north coast, with the next best areas in the north
interior areas such as Portland and Kelso as well as the central
Oregon coast, with the lowest chance in the south Willamette Valley.

After a nice day over most of the inland areas today with temps
climbing into the lower 70s, tonight and a good part of Sunday will
be cloudier with temps down about 5 or so degrees Sunday as compared
to today. The models show the clouds lifting some Sunday afternoon
and perhaps trying to thin, but the best clearing will take place
overnight Sunday night as an upper level ridge builds in.

The clearing Sunday night will lead to good radiational conditions
that will let temps cool off well down into the 40s most lower
elevation areas, as well as allow some patchy fog to form especially
near the coast but at some of our typical inland fog prone areas.

The upper ridge will bring warming and plenty of sunshine on Memorial
Day after any brief patchy morning fog or low clouds. Look for temps
inland to rebound well into the 70s on Monday.

Warm dry weather will continue into Tuesday with a thermal trough
building up the coast Monday night and moving over much of western
Oregon Tuesday. Per 850 mb temps, inland temps will push well up
into the 80s Tuesday, and even approach 80 at the coast before the
sea breeze kicks in.

Little change to the forecast tonight. Tolleson

.LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows...
Tuesday night through Saturday...The upper level ridge will persist
over the Pac NW through Wednesday keeping temps on the warmer side of
things. Models continue to show 850mb temps near 20C. With the
thermal trough shifting inland slightly on Wednesday this should
allow temps in the interior to warm significantly, with widespread
afternoon highs around 90F likely. Models continue to diverge beyond
Thursday with little consistency among the various runs so confidence
remains extremely low. Have decided to trend the current forecast to
the more progressive 28/12Z GFS solution on Thursday which brings a
more pronounced onshore flow pattern to the region. Have also added a
slight chance of thunderstorms to the Cascades on Thursday due to the
GFS bringing some mid and upper level moisture to the region.
Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the forecast from Friday
onward using a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected everywhere except for the coastal
TAF sites. Marine clouds have moved in along the coast and will lower
to MVFR in the next few hours. Already observing cigs between 700 and
1300 feet at KHQM for the last few hours. Expect these cigs to
moderate somewhat at KAST, but still expect a period of lower sub
1500 foot MVFR cigs at KAST later tonight after a weak front moves
through. In addition, showers and occasional drizzle will be possible
along the coast through the early morning hours Sunday. Inland areas
will remain predominantly VFR overnight although some MVFR cigs are
possible, especially in southwest Washington and the northern
Willamette Valley.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions in control through this evening.
Lower cigs will move in after 07Z, but are expected to remain mostly
VFR. /Bentley
&&

.MARINE...As expected, northern marine waters saw a brief period of
20 to 25 knot gusts this afternoon ahead of a weak front which is
sweeping through the waters this evening. These winds have since
subsided and will continue to weaken and become more northerly
overnight and into tomorrow. Attention is now turning towards the
thermal low development on Monday and into Monday night which will
bring small craft winds to at least central Oregon waters and likely
into northern waters as well. This pattern will continue through at
least Tuesday before the gradient shifts further offshore on
Wednesday as the thermal low builds north.

Seas will remain in the 3 to 5 foot range tonight and into the first
part of the week. Fresh swell will begin to develop on Tuesday with
the extended northerly fetch, but seas are only expected to rise to ~
6 feet. With short ~7 second periods, will need to watch for square
seas if seas rise higher than expected. /Bentley
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.



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000
FXUS66 KOTX 282330
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 PM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will be cool and locally breezy.
Scattered showers are expected to impact the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington at times over the holiday weekend. Sunday`s
system will also produce wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph during the
afternoon and evening along the East Slopes of the Cascades into
the Columbia Basin. Warmer weather will develop by Wednesday and
carry into next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: A broad upper level trough over southern
British Columbia will be the weather feature of note tonight
through Sunday. A shortwave is expected to round the base of the
B.C. trough on Sunday enhancing convective showers and tightening
the westerly surface pressure gradient.

The best chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms will be
in the mountainous areas along the Canadian border Sunday
afternoon. The increasing westerly flow should activate the
Cascade rain shadow leaving much of central Washington in the lee
of the Cascades high and dry. Marginal surface based CAPE of 100
to 300 J/Kg combined with 0-3km bulk shear values of 15 to 20kts
suggest garden variety thunderstorms capable of brief heavy rain,
pea hail, and wind gusts to 35 mph. Cells should move from the west
or southwest around 30 mph limiting the threat of flash flooding.

Sunday will be breezy in the afternoon and evening. The Columbia
Basin, Palouse, and West Plains will experience sustained west or
southwest winds around 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Cascade
gap winds will likely peak late in the afternoon and early in the
evening in places like Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage with gusts
in the 30mph or more. As wind decrease overnight, the sheltered
valleys of northeast Washington and far north Idaho will be quite
chilly Sunday night. Places like Deer Park, Newport, Priest Lake,
and Republic will likely dip into the mid to upper 30s by Monday
morning. /GKoch

Monday through Thursday night: There will be a few showers
lingering over the north Idaho Panhandle Monday but this activity
will clear out by late afternoon and high pressure will strengthen
delivering a warming trend through the week. Models are not as
toasty as runs were indicating yesterday but the pattern still
favors afternoon highs warming back into the 80s to lower 90s
nearly 8 to 15 degrees above normal. The GFS/GEM are still
preferred over the ECMWF which is now better aligned with the GFS
but also shown moderate wavering over the last 24 hours. These
solutions suggest surging 850mb temperatures from near 11C on
Monday to 21C supporting mid 80s to lower 90s.

One item of note that  models are starting to pick up on is an
influx in mid-level moisture Thursday. This moisture first
arrives near the Cascades in the morning then spreads into
southeastern WA and N Idaho in the afternoon. Tracing this
moisture upstream in the models indicates origins near California
but not necessarily from the Pacific or Gulf. This appears to
manifest from convection processes and get drawn northward as
southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching trough. Whether
this moisture equates to passing clouds or manifest into showers
and t-storms is still highly uncertain but worth keeping an eye on
Thursday given the potential for very warm temperatures, deep
instability, and perhaps a passing disturbance across the northern
mountains. /sb

Friday through Saturday night: Ridge remains in place across the
region at the start of the period with continued above normal
temperatures and dry conditions. Models differ in minor shortwave
features as well as the evolution of the breakdown of the upper
ridge, which currently looks to hold off until at least after this
extended forecast. The main forecast challenge during this period
will be forecast high temperatures as models have been rather
inconsistent on just how warm we will get. Only minor changes were
made to the forecast to trend temperatures down slightly Friday,
especially over the east slopes of the Cascades as the GFS
advertised a band of mid to high level clouds associated with a
midlevel front. Further changes to the temperature forecast in the
far extended may be needed as model agreement improves. Either
way, above normal temperatures appear likely which could lead to
some rises on areas streams that still have sufficient snow pack
left. /Kalin

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The next system swings into the region over the next
24 hours. Tonight the leading shower threat will be found over
the northern mountains and far northern Columbia Basin. TAF sites
will main see middle to high clouds, though a few showers may be
found in the vcnty of EAT early this evening and some stray
sprinkles cannot be ruled out near GEG to COE around 05-09Z.
Sunday the main trough swings in, with a threat of showers around
the eastern TAF sites in the afternoon. There will also be a
threat of thunderstorms, but the risk will mainly be north and
east of the TAF sites. Lingering gusty winds this evening near the
Cascades/western Columbia basin will abate after 01-04Z. Winds
increase again Sunday especially after midday. Gusts near
20-30kts are possible, strongest late near the EAT. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  68  44  69  45  75 /  10  20  10  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  68  44  69  43  73 /  10  20  10  20  10   0
Pullman        45  68  43  67  42  72 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       51  75  50  75  49  81 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Colville       45  69  43  72  42  80 /  10  30  20  20  10   0
Sandpoint      43  65  43  67  39  73 /  10  40  20  20  20   0
Kellogg        42  65  43  64  39  71 /  10  20  20  20  20   0
Moses Lake     49  75  46  76  45  82 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  73  49  75  54  81 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  72  45  76  49  81 /  20  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 281017
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
317 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will remain over British Columbia
this weekend bringing mostly cloudy and cool weather to western
Washington, with showers at times. A strong upper level ridge will
bring mostly sunny and warmer weather beginning on Memorial Day and
continuing through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Upper level low pressure over British Columbia will
continue to keep conditions cool and showery over W WA. Not helping
matters any are a couple of additional factors. First...a surface
level ridge of high pressure will keep onshore flow in
place...adding more cool and moist air into the mix. Second...a weak
warm front looks to reach the coast a bit later this morning and
move east through the area as the day progresses. Do not let the
name fool you...this warm front is about as pseudo as it gets...with
high temperatures today running right at or just a degree or two
under what was observed on Friday. This front brings with it a
better chance for precip over the coast...with some chance for
precip inland. In the wake of the front Sunday...could see temps go
up a degree or two...but sufficient moisture from the plodding upper
level low will remain in the area for a continued chance for showers.

Now for the good news. Upper level ridging looks to set up over the
area starting as early as Sunday night...putting the kibosh on any
additional precip just in time to save any Memorial Day plans in W
WA. This will allow temps to rebound rather quickly as well...with
many locations seeing right around 70 degrees.  SMR

.LONG TERM...But wait...there is more. In fact...maybe too much of a
good thing...since temps on Tuesday continue to climb...with the
Seattle metro area poised to hit 80. The hits keep coming as
Wednesday climbs into the lower 80s. This will prove to be the peak
as the ridge starts to move eastward and thus...temps start to
slowly decline afterward. An upper level trough over the Pacific
will start to try and nudge its way in...but it looks like
conditions will remain dry more at least the first half of next
weekend before said trough finally makes its way into W
WA...bringing with it another round of precip.  SMR

&&

.AVIATION...An upper level trough will remain over Washington
through Sunday before moving eastward. Light to moderate westerly
flow aloft. Moist in the mid to lower levels and generally stable. A
1013 mb surface low will move into central Vancouver Island around
midday. The associated trailing front will reach the coast by late
morning and move through the interior including Puget Sound in the
afternoon. Light rain at times today...especially north and west of
Puget Sound. Areas of MVFR stratus and vis 4-5 SM with -RA this
morning...otherwise VFR stratus.

KSEA...South winds 7-11 KT...rising to 10-14 KT w/ gusts 22 KT this
afternoon. The front is expected to pass the terminal around 22z.
Cigs mostly MVFR this morning...then VFR in the afternoon. Light
rain at times...with scattered showers by late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...A 1013 MB surface low will reach central Vancouver Island
around midday. The trailing front will move through the coastal
waters this morning...then push through the inland waters this
afternoon. Small craft southwesterly winds will develop ahead of and
along the front affecting all waters...except the Central Strait and
Puget Sound. However...winds in the north part of Puget Sound could
potentially reach low-end small craft with frontal passage this
afternoon.  Onshore flow and convergence zone activity will likely
continue this evening through Sunday afternoon behind the front.

High pressure will increase over the offshore waters on Memorial
Day. This will give the potential for northwesterly winds up to 25
KT over the coastal zones Monday afternoon and evening. Winds
becoming northerly inland. Offshore flow will likely prevail Tuesday
through mid week.

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory coastal waters...North Inland waters...Admiralty
     Inlet and the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280915
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
215 am PDT Sat May 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system over southern BC
will persist through the weekend bringing onshore flow to southwest
Washington and parts of northwest Oregon. This will keep a chance
for some precipitation across the northern parts of the forecast
area. Upper level ridging will build in Sunday night and on Memorial
Day for drying weather with decreasing clouds and warmer daytime
temps. Temps are expected to cool a bit late next week, and a threat
for showers or possibly even thunderstorms returns as an upper level
trough approaches the coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Memorial Day)...A trough of low pres
was over southern BC early Sat morning. A shortwave digging down
from the northern BC coast will swing across southern BC and WA Sun.
Models in good agreement showing a weak warm front off the WA coast
this morning, lifting ne during the day. moist isentropic lift is
depicted between 285k and 290k isentropes during the morning,
generally limited to north of a line from ktmk to kspb. onshore flow
persists mainly n of that line into the afternoon which is roughly
the axis of the surface ridge, and keeping atmosphere moist below
about 700 mb. As a weak cold front follows late in the day sinking
into the n part of the forecast area, necessitating a chance for
showers in the north through the afternoon and evening. Moist low
levels persist into Sun, as the main upper trough axis moves
through. With better dynamics extending further s, chances for
showers will extend a little further s Sun than today. Chances for
showers will drop off Sun afternoon and evening as the upper trough
begins to move e, and low levels start to dry as the flow turns more
northerly. Models moderate 850 mb temps several degrees today as
heights rise, in turn moderating high temps closer to seasonal
normals today and Sun.

Sun night and Mon as the upper pattern shifts e and a ridge of high
pres begins to move in over the Pacific NW. Low level flow turns
offshore for a return to dry weather with decreasing clouds and
temps warming back above normal.

.LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows...Monday night
through Friday...An amplifying upper level ridge looks to persist
over the Pac NW through at least Wednesday bringing dry weather and
warmer temperatures. Models continue to suggest 850mb temperatures
near 15-20C early next week under moderate offshore flow so will
continue the upward trend with the temperature forecast. As of now,
it is becoming more likely that we could see the warmest
temperatures of the year next week with afternoon highs on Wednesday
approaching 90F. Models then start to diverge for the latter half of
the workweek. The ECMWF remains a little more progressive than the
GFS late next week and shows a meandering cutoff low developing late
Thursday/Friday over southern Oregon. If the ECMWF is correct we
could see some showers develop across the CWA. As such, will
maintain slight chance PoPs and cooler temperatures in the forecast,
but confidence remains extremely low. /64
&&

.AVIATION...Areas north of a Newport to Salem will remain under
plenty of clouds with along with a few showers. Ceilings generally
6000 to 8000 ft this am with a few pockets of MVFR along the
coast, but ceilings will lower a bit more this afternoon. However,
areas to the south will see mix of clear skies and clouds, though
clouds will be increasing as the day progresses. Onshore flow will
strengthen later today and tonight, with 2500 to 3500 ft cigs
increasing over most of northwest Oregon after 02z.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with northwesterly flow aloft, with
light onshore flow at low levels. Ceilings around 7000 to 8000 ft
this am will gradually lower a bit more through this afternoon,
but remain in 4500 to 6000 ft range.                 Rockey.
&&

.MARINE...as weak front drops into the region today, will see
winds turn more southwest to westerly this am. Once the front
moves onshore later today and early this evening, winds will
becoming west to northwesterly. But, winds will remain 15 kt or
less. Overall, seas running 3 to 4 ft today and tonight.

On Sunday, high pressure will spread across the coastal waters,
and remain well into next week. At same time, thermal low pres
over northwest Calif and southwest Oregon will strengthen. This
will bring typical June pattern for Mon through Wed, with gusty
north to northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt, with strongest south of
Cascade Head. Strongest winds will be in afternoons/evenings.
Also, with these winds will come choppy wind-driven seas, with
overall, combined seas (wind waves and swell combined) running 5
to 8 ft, with highest seas south of Cascade Head.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280550
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, breezy weather will linger through the Memorial Day
weekend. With an upper level low to the north, the Inland
Northwest will experience a chance for showers over the Idaho
Panhandle and the Washington mountains, especially on Sunday. As
high pressure builds into the region, look for a warming trend for
the work week. Much above normal temperatures are anticipated late
in the week. Some areas may see temperatures in the lower 90s by
then.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: one shortwave continues to lift through the
northeast mountains and northern ID Panhandle, still producing
isolated to scattered showers. These should become more isolated
and shift closer to the Canadian border through the night. There
were some sprinkles early near Lewiston too, on the tail end of
that shortwave. As the flow starts to flatten with the approach of
the next wave some middle to high clouds will spreads in from the
west. Minor adjustments made to the PoPs across the northeast
through the night, keeping them going a little further south a
little longer. Also earlier added some sprinkles near the L-C
Valley. Other adjustments made to take a degree or two off the
overnight lows, given current trends. With the showers that
occurred around the sheltered valleys, including the L-C, there
is some thought patchy fog may be found there. However the
lingering lower clouds and influx of middle and high clouds
complicates that thinking. For now have left that out of the
forecast but will continue to look at that potential. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: One system slips east northeast out of the region
tonight, allowing the threat of showers over northeast WA and
north ID to wane, while clouds begin to thin out over this region.
However a weak warm front lifting into the Cascades is expected to
spread some middle to high clouds across the western TAF sites,
before the next shortwave starts to push in later tomorrow. The
main shower threat will be around the mountains Saturday
afternoon, leaving mainly dry conditions at TAF sites, though
some showers may be found in the vcnty of EAT late. Some slight
gustiness is expected again Saturday across the central/eastern
Columbia Basin but with gusts mainly around 15-20kts. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  63  47  68  46  69 /   0  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  41  62  45  68  45  69 /   0  10  10  20  30  20
Pullman        39  61  45  67  45  68 /   0  10   0  20  10  10
Lewiston       45  69  48  74  50  75 /   0  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       41  66  45  69  45  71 /  20  20  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      40  60  43  66  43  67 /  10  20  10  40  30  20
Kellogg        40  58  42  64  43  64 /   0  20  10  30  30  20
Moses Lake     43  70  48  75  46  76 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      48  70  51  73  50  75 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak           42  70  47  73  46  75 /   0  20  10  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280419
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
919 PM PDT Fri May 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will persist around southern B.C. through
the weekend, with onshore flow and plenty of clouds in southwest
Washington and parts of northwest Oregon, brushing the northern
areas with a bit of moisture at times this weekend. Upper level
ridging will build in Sunday night and on Memorial Day for drying
weather with less clouds and warmer daytime temps, with highs on
Tuesday and Wednesday expected to reach into at least the mid 80s
inland. Temps cool a bit late next week, and a threat for showers
or possibly even thunderstorms returns as an upper level trough
approaches the coast, though there is some disagreement amongst the
models for late next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Labor Day)...An area of low pressure
will continue along the central and southern B.C. coast through the
weekend, maintaining onshore flow and lots of clouds across southwest
Washington and much of northwest Oregon. This will also send some
precipitation into the area at times, especially across the north.

Showers from this afternoon are winding down this evening much as the
models are showing, with just a few left in the northern Cascade
forecast zones. There is an area of more layered and cooler topped
clouds off the Washington coast that will spread onshore late tonight
and Saturday across western Washington and clipping far northwest
Oregon. The models show this as an area of light warm advection and
isentropic lift, somewhat like we can get in winter but weaker. It
appears we will get some light more stratiform like rain or drizzle
from this on Saturday, with the best chance of precipitation along
the north coast and adjacent coastal mountains, and possibly trying
to leak over into the south Washington Cascades. There is some small
chance of light precipitation along I-5 from Portland north to Kelso
and Castle Rock, with the better chance farther north.

The trailing weak cold front, if you can call it that, appears to
drag through the northern areas Saturday night into early Sunday with
a bit of light stratiform precipitation again across the far north.

Look for temps a bit warmer into the 60s over the weekend, but still
struggling to reach seasonal normals.

An upper ridge is forecast to build into the Pacific Northwest Sunday
night and Monday, which should bring clearing skies and more sunshine
on Memorial Day. Look for temps to rebound well into the 70s on
Monday. Tolleson

.LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows...
Monday night through Friday...An amplifying upper level ridge looks
to persist over the Pac NW through at least Wednesday bringing dry
weather and warmer temperatures. Models continue to suggest 850mb
temperatures near 15-20C early next week under moderate offshore flow
so will continue the upward trend with the temperature forecast. As
of now, it is becoming more likely that we could see the warmest
temperatures of the year next week with afternoon highs on Wednesday
approaching 90F. Models then start to diverge for the latter half of
the workweek. The ECMWF remains a little more progressive than the
GFS late next week and shows a meandering cutoff low developing late
Thursday/Friday over southern Oregon. If the ECMWF is correct we
could see some showers develop across the CWA. As such, will maintain
slight chance PoPs and cooler temperatures in the forecast, but
confidence remains extremely low. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period at all
sites. Occasional MVFR cigs were observed with the heavier rain
showers this afternoon, but these have become less frequent as the
showers have diminished this evening. With a lull in activity
expected overnight, do not expect showers to impact any of the
terminals overnight.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the period.
Light and variable winds through mid day tomorrow. A few scattered
showers will be around later tomorrow afternoon, but there is a less
than 25 percent chance that PDX is impacted. /Bentley
&&

.MARINE...WNW winds will shift more westerly over the next 6 hours
and eventually southwesterly Saturday morning ahead of an approaching
weak front. Winds will increase for 6-9 hours ahead of the front with
gusts approaching small craft criteria in the northern zones for
several hours. Given the stronger winds will mainly be north of our
forecast area, will hold off on a SCA for winds at this time, but one
may be needed if winds are stronger with later forecast guidance.
Otherwise, winds will remain in the 10 to 15 kt range into early next
week. Northerly winds begin to increase Monday night as a thermal low
develops northward along the coast.

Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 foot range through the next 7 days
without much of a catalyst for higher seas. Given seas and normal
ebbs, expect favorable conditions in the Columbia River bar through
the period. /Bentley
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 272115
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and breezy weather will likely last through the Memorial Day
weekend. With an upper level low to the north, the Inland
Northwest will experience a chance for showers over the Idaho
Panhandle and the Washington mountains especially on Sunday. As
high pressure builds into the region, look for a warming trend
for the work week. Much above normal temperatures anticipated late
in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday: Cool, breezy and showery at times will
describe the holiday weekend as an upper level trough pivots over
the Inland Northwest. Currently a shortwave is rounding its base.
The cold air aloft enhancing the instability will fuel convection
across the northern mountains through this evening. Thunderstorms
will be isolated and embedded in the widespread showers. The main
thunderstorm threat will be occasional lightning, brief downpours
and gusty winds. The thunder threat will decrease early this
evening, while showers will linger overnight near the Canadian
border. Gusty winds with gusts of 25 to 30 mph will taper off
across the Columbia Basin early this evening and persist in the
lee side Cascade valleys through night. Saturday should be the
drier day of the weekend as the upper trough swings back over BC
and leaves a more stable westerly flow across the region. The
convection chances are slight and lie along the Canadian border
during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will rebound
slightly with a little more diurnal heating. An additional
disturbance will rotate through the trough on Sunday, increasing
cloud cover and the chance of convection by Sunday afternoon and
evening. The instability supports the mention of thunderstorms
across the northern and panhandle mountains Sunday afternoon and
evening. Gusty winds will develop across the Columbia Basin into
the Palouse and Spokane area Sunday afternoon, while downslope
westerly winds increase over the Cascades toward evening.
Temperatures on Sunday will still be cool but similar to those on
Saturday. /rfox

...WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY END OF NEXT WEEK...

Sunday night through Monday night:  This will be last forecast period
carrying a potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms
before a strong warming and drying trend commences. Models are in
good agreement that one last shortwave will track NW to SE through
the region and despite some differences with the strength, there
is good agreement that most activity will be concentrated over the
northeastern mountains of WA and N Idaho. Instability parameters
are nothing to write home about but the forcing is strong and
shear will be moderate so we cannot rule out a few storms capable
of gusty winds, brief downpours, and isolated lightning strikes
but overall confidence is low. Dry conditions will exist over the
Basin and East Slopes but winds will be breezy, especially through
the Cascade Gaps and at locations like Wenatchee and Waterville
Plateau. By Monday morning, north winds will blow down the
Okanogan Valley.

Wednesday through the weekend:  Models are coming into good agreement
that the pattern will shift and a strong ridge high pressure will
settle into the region. The duration of the ridge and how warm it
will become does carry moderate uncertainty but confidence is
definitely increasing for a period of dry and warm conditions. At
this point, it looks likely for temperatures to warm into the 80s
for Thursday, Friday, and possibly into the weekend. It is
conceivable that highs by Friday may surpass 90F as 850mb
temperatures surge between 20-27 Celsius. This would even support
the idea of lower 100s in the deep Basin. However, with most
spring-time model runs, there has been some modest flip flopping
leading to lower confidence by the end of next week. We will also
be watching the potential for a disturbance around the weekend
which could provide the next round of t-storms.

The warmer weather will bring another of period of high elevation
snow melt and increased flows on the Stehekin River which is
forecast to climb near bankfull around next weekend. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light showers will be moving through the KGEG-KCOE area
through 20z with the remains of the front. More showers with
embedded thunderstorms will be found over the northern mountains
from now through about 03z. This activity should stay north of the
TAF sites. Light showers will be moving east of the KLWS area by
20z and leave VFR with locally breezy conditions. Breezy winds
will prevail through afternoon and early evening. Winds will
remain elevated at about 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kt through
about 03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  63  47  68  46  69 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  41  62  45  68  45  69 /  20  10  10  20  30  20
Pullman        41  61  45  67  45  68 /  10  10   0  20  10  10
Lewiston       46  69  48  74  50  75 /   0  10   0  20  20  10
Colville       42  66  45  69  45  71 /  20  20  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      40  60  43  66  43  67 /  20  20  10  40  30  30
Kellogg        40  58  42  64  43  64 /  10  20  10  30  30  30
Moses Lake     45  70  48  75  46  76 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      49  70  51  73  50  75 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak           42  70  47  73  46  75 /  10  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 271153 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The passage of a cold front this morning will bring cooler and
breezy conditions...which will likely last through the Memorial
Day weekend. Accompanying the front and upper low will be a chance
for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountainous portions
of Washington. Look for a gradual warming trend after the Memorial
Day weekend, with temperatures rising to above normal by the
middle of next week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Quick update to increase chance of precip for Spokane and Kootenai
counties this morning. A line of showers have developed across
extreme eastern Lincoln county and it moving to the east at about
15-20 mph. Expect a brief period of heavy rain and maybe an
isolated lightning strike through about 730 am for Spokane Co and
about 830 am for Kootenai Co.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday Night: Cold front has pushed through
eastern WA and is now moving into north ID. The best chance of
precipitation with this front will continue to be across northern
WA and ID. Some light reflectivity has shown up further south
(generally a line across eastern Spokane and Whitman counties).
The HRRR shows this line staying in tact the next several hours as
it moves east. Have increase chance of precip for the early
morning across the eastern Palouse and LC valley area. This
afternoon more widespread showers will develop as the cold core of
the upper level low settles across the north. Showers are likely
across the mountains of northern WA and ID, but cannot rule some
moving into the Waterville Plateau or other valley locations
across the north. Decent instability will lead to a slight chance
of thunderstorms generally north of a line from Republic to
Sandpoint. The thunder and shower threat will decrease as the sun
sets. Saturday the trough shifts north and east and the Inland
Northwest will see a more westerly flow aloft across the area. The
best chance of showers will once again be across the mountains,
mainly in the north. Have taken out the chance of thunder as both
the GFS and NAM show quite a bit less instability Saturday
compared to Friday. Winds will remain elevated today but be less
than what was seen yesterday. General speeds of 10-15 mph with
gusts to 20 are possible today. This evening occasional gusts to
25 mph will be possible across the Wenatchee Valley and into
portions of the Waterville Plateau. Temperatures will remain
below average through Saturday night. /Nisbet

Sunday through Friday: The most notable difference in model
guidance for the mid and extended range fcst remains, like last
night, the slower and deeper GFS solution with the Sunday frontal
passage, and especially the upper trough. The NAM and ECMWF were
in better agreement (though the ECMWF remains more progressive)
with bringing this Memorial Day weekend trough through the Pac Nw
in faster steering flow. That said, both Sunday and Memorial Day
have a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms for nearly all
mtn zones, with an isolated shower threat for the lower elevation
zones...including the Spokane/ Coeur d`Alene areas and south into
the Palouse and central Idaho Panhandle mtns. However, this latter
threat seems rather low as models are hinting at a fairly wide
post-frontal dry slot. This would limit the pcpn chances closer to
the BC border and from Lewiston to the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle. This
dry slot also means windy conditions across the Upper Columbia
Basin and the Wenatchee region especially Sunday following frontal
passage. Tues through Thurs may turn out to be warmer and dry for
all zones if the favored ECMWF keeps its run- to- run consistency.
Fcst temperatures were warmed a bit. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A line of heavier rain showers and an isolated
thunderstorm will move through the KGEG and KSFF sites btwn
13-14Z. Not confident if the line will make it to KCOE or not.
After this moves to the east aft 15Z the TAF sites should remain
relatively quite for the next 24 hrs. Aftn showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the north. Best site to see an
aftn shower would be KCOE, but only put in vcsh for the TAF. Winds
will remain elevated at about 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kt
through about 03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  43  63  47  70  49 /  40  10  10   0  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  60  42  62  44  69  48 /  30  10  20   0  30  30
Pullman        58  41  60  44  68  46 /  10   0  10   0  20  20
Lewiston       64  47  67  49  75  52 /  20   0  10   0  20  20
Colville       63  42  65  44  69  45 /  60  20  20  20  50  50
Sandpoint      58  39  60  41  67  45 /  50  20  20  20  60  60
Kellogg        55  40  58  41  66  44 /  30  10  30  10  50  50
Moses Lake     69  45  71  47  76  49 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      68  49  71  52  75  52 /  10   0  10   0  20  10
Omak           68  44  69  48  73  49 /  20  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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