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000
FXUS66 KOTX 070532
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1032 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada Tuesday, with a threat of showers and thunderstorms
across, largely across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast on track as mid and high level clouds move into
the northern zones overnight. May see a few high based showers,
but the better chance for any will brush far north Idaho late
tonight. rfox.

Rest of tonight through Tuesday night....The weather during this
period will revolve around a shortwave trough currently dropping
southeast through southern British Columbia. This feature is
expected to drop toward NE corner of Washington and the northern
tip of the Idaho Panhandle overnight. As it does we expect to see
increasing amounts of mid level moisture and instability track
into that area. Model soundings in the vicinity of this feature
suggest we will see some of this instability and moisture develop
into showers late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning. The
soundings also suggest a very small chance for a few lightning
strikes due to elevated instability near the Canadian border
toward morning but the threat isn`t great enough to place in the
forecasts at this time. A much better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will arrive during the afternoon and evening hours
as a more robust upper level shortwave tracks south across the
Canadian border. This shortwave will lower temperatures in the
upper atmosphere while warming and moistening the lower
atmosphere, a prime recipe for thunderstorms provided sufficient
lifting. And it looks like this shortwave will provide the
necessary lift. So the pieces are in place for a decent
thunderstorm event. Most of them will likely occur over NE
Washington and north Idaho based on the best potential instability
combined with the best upper level forcing from the positioning of
the jet stream. However the threat will likely extend west toward
the Cascades as well. Looks like most of the thunderstorms will
initiate by early afternoon near the Canadian border and spread
south through the evening. Based on wind profiles and instability
parameters we don`t expect to see any strong thunderstorms however
based on elevated cloud bases and rather dry conditions below
there will be a chance of some moderate thunderstorm outflow
winds. Also based on the dry sub-cloud layer we don`t expect to
see widespread heavy rains, however most of the storms will
produce some rainfall. The other threat will be for new fire
starts based on the extremely dry fuels. The question is how much
lightning will we see. Based on the instability parameters it
looks like most will occur over extreme NE Washington and the
northern Idaho Panhandle. The fire weather watch still seems like
a good call, however in an effort to coordinate with neighboring
offices will leave the watch going rather than upgrading to a red
flag warning.

The threat of thunder should ware rapidly overnight as the
shortwave begins to shear and stretch as it moves toward the
Washington/Oregon border. fx.

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the forecast
period. Mid and high level moisture will stream in from the north
as a weak disturbance brushes along the Canadian border overnight
and dig south over north Idaho on Tuesday. This will help increase
cloud cover and bring a threat of convection to the north and east
of the KGEG-KCOE corridor. May see a few high based showers early
this morning, but instability will increase after 21z with a
better chance of afternoon surface based convection.  Winds will
be light and diurnally driven overnight and into Tuesday morning.
Expect a push of north- northeast winds by Tuesday afternoon with
higher gusts. Convection and winds will taper off after 03z. rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 070532
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1032 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada Tuesday, with a threat of showers and thunderstorms
across, largely across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast on track as mid and high level clouds move into
the northern zones overnight. May see a few high based showers,
but the better chance for any will brush far north Idaho late
tonight. rfox.

Rest of tonight through Tuesday night....The weather during this
period will revolve around a shortwave trough currently dropping
southeast through southern British Columbia. This feature is
expected to drop toward NE corner of Washington and the northern
tip of the Idaho Panhandle overnight. As it does we expect to see
increasing amounts of mid level moisture and instability track
into that area. Model soundings in the vicinity of this feature
suggest we will see some of this instability and moisture develop
into showers late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning. The
soundings also suggest a very small chance for a few lightning
strikes due to elevated instability near the Canadian border
toward morning but the threat isn`t great enough to place in the
forecasts at this time. A much better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will arrive during the afternoon and evening hours
as a more robust upper level shortwave tracks south across the
Canadian border. This shortwave will lower temperatures in the
upper atmosphere while warming and moistening the lower
atmosphere, a prime recipe for thunderstorms provided sufficient
lifting. And it looks like this shortwave will provide the
necessary lift. So the pieces are in place for a decent
thunderstorm event. Most of them will likely occur over NE
Washington and north Idaho based on the best potential instability
combined with the best upper level forcing from the positioning of
the jet stream. However the threat will likely extend west toward
the Cascades as well. Looks like most of the thunderstorms will
initiate by early afternoon near the Canadian border and spread
south through the evening. Based on wind profiles and instability
parameters we don`t expect to see any strong thunderstorms however
based on elevated cloud bases and rather dry conditions below
there will be a chance of some moderate thunderstorm outflow
winds. Also based on the dry sub-cloud layer we don`t expect to
see widespread heavy rains, however most of the storms will
produce some rainfall. The other threat will be for new fire
starts based on the extremely dry fuels. The question is how much
lightning will we see. Based on the instability parameters it
looks like most will occur over extreme NE Washington and the
northern Idaho Panhandle. The fire weather watch still seems like
a good call, however in an effort to coordinate with neighboring
offices will leave the watch going rather than upgrading to a red
flag warning.

The threat of thunder should ware rapidly overnight as the
shortwave begins to shear and stretch as it moves toward the
Washington/Oregon border. fx.

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the forecast
period. Mid and high level moisture will stream in from the north
as a weak disturbance brushes along the Canadian border overnight
and dig south over north Idaho on Tuesday. This will help increase
cloud cover and bring a threat of convection to the north and east
of the KGEG-KCOE corridor. May see a few high based showers early
this morning, but instability will increase after 21z with a
better chance of afternoon surface based convection.  Winds will
be light and diurnally driven overnight and into Tuesday morning.
Expect a push of north- northeast winds by Tuesday afternoon with
higher gusts. Convection and winds will taper off after 03z. rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 070440
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
GIVING ONSHORE FLOW...AN INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON IS HELPING TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NW
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING AND WILL CLIP THE NORTH CASCADES ON
TUESDAY. THE 18Z GFS40 SHOWS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH TUESDAYS
TROUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES TUE AFTERNOON.

ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE STRONG RIDGE ALONG 138W THAT HAS HELPED TO
PRODUCE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR OVER THE PAST
WEEK IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THIS UPPER HIGH...NOW
AROUND 591 DAM AT 500 MB...IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THU AS IT COLLAPSES TO THE LOWER 580 DAM RANGE. BY
LATER THU INTO FRI...THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN US WILL SHIFT TO AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WITH RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME RATHER STRONGLY ONSHORE OVER THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
COMBINED WITH A HEAT LOW IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY RESULTED IN HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH NEAR
GALE FORCE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND WEST
WINDS OVER 20 MPH AT SHELTON. THIS WILL ALLOW COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH INTO THE PUGET SOUND REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 2-4
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE INTERIOR. AN UPDATE FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE MADE TO THE ZONES AND THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEAKER AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. THE LACK OF STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE 80S IN THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF SEATTLE.

THE INCOMING NAM12 HINTS AT ONSHORE FLOW RAMPING UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MARINE TYPICAL OF A MORE NORMAL
YEAR. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE AFTERNOON LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGE 135W UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG SW ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... WHICH SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING. COMBINED
COOLING FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP MAX
TEMPS BACK TO THE 70S. OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
WEAKER COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN THE PATTERN OF NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU
TUE. CONTD NW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SMOKE LAYERS
FROM NUMEROUS WILDFIRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE ONSHORE PRES GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...THUS ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUE MORNING. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH KTCM AND KPAE BY 1300 UTC. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY... ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
LIFR CIGS.

KSEA...SOME STRATUS /CIGS NEAR 1K FT/ WILL LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHER PRES OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WITH LOWER PRES E OF
THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE LONG TERM. SHORT
TERM...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CASCADES FOR A THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOT ONLY KEEP THIS INSTABILITY BRIEF BUT ALSO
PRETTY LIMITED AREA-WISE. THUS...WILL KEEP CURRENT ISOLATED WORDING
FROM INHERITED FORECAST AND WILL NOT OPT FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL PUT A
HEADLINE ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS ISOLATED LIGHTNING THREAT...GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY DRY NATURE OF FUELS OUT THERE. THE LONG TERM ISSUE
COMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...STARTING THURSDAY...AS A TROF OFF
THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL PUT IN
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL REEVALUATE THE THREAT
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE SHORT TERM ISSUE TUESDAY PANS OUT.  SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND
      NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TIL 2 AM TUESDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 070440
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
GIVING ONSHORE FLOW...AN INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON IS HELPING TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NW
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING AND WILL CLIP THE NORTH CASCADES ON
TUESDAY. THE 18Z GFS40 SHOWS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH TUESDAYS
TROUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES TUE AFTERNOON.

ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE STRONG RIDGE ALONG 138W THAT HAS HELPED TO
PRODUCE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR OVER THE PAST
WEEK IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THIS UPPER HIGH...NOW
AROUND 591 DAM AT 500 MB...IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THU AS IT COLLAPSES TO THE LOWER 580 DAM RANGE. BY
LATER THU INTO FRI...THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN US WILL SHIFT TO AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WITH RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME RATHER STRONGLY ONSHORE OVER THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
COMBINED WITH A HEAT LOW IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY RESULTED IN HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH NEAR
GALE FORCE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND WEST
WINDS OVER 20 MPH AT SHELTON. THIS WILL ALLOW COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH INTO THE PUGET SOUND REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 2-4
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE INTERIOR. AN UPDATE FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE MADE TO THE ZONES AND THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEAKER AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. THE LACK OF STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE 80S IN THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF SEATTLE.

THE INCOMING NAM12 HINTS AT ONSHORE FLOW RAMPING UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MARINE TYPICAL OF A MORE NORMAL
YEAR. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE AFTERNOON LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGE 135W UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG SW ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... WHICH SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING. COMBINED
COOLING FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP MAX
TEMPS BACK TO THE 70S. OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
WEAKER COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN THE PATTERN OF NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU
TUE. CONTD NW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SMOKE LAYERS
FROM NUMEROUS WILDFIRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE ONSHORE PRES GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...THUS ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUE MORNING. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH KTCM AND KPAE BY 1300 UTC. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY... ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
LIFR CIGS.

KSEA...SOME STRATUS /CIGS NEAR 1K FT/ WILL LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHER PRES OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WITH LOWER PRES E OF
THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE LONG TERM. SHORT
TERM...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CASCADES FOR A THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOT ONLY KEEP THIS INSTABILITY BRIEF BUT ALSO
PRETTY LIMITED AREA-WISE. THUS...WILL KEEP CURRENT ISOLATED WORDING
FROM INHERITED FORECAST AND WILL NOT OPT FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL PUT A
HEADLINE ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS ISOLATED LIGHTNING THREAT...GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY DRY NATURE OF FUELS OUT THERE. THE LONG TERM ISSUE
COMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...STARTING THURSDAY...AS A TROF OFF
THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL PUT IN
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL REEVALUATE THE THREAT
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE SHORT TERM ISSUE TUESDAY PANS OUT.  SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND
      NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TIL 2 AM TUESDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 070440
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
GIVING ONSHORE FLOW...AN INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON IS HELPING TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NW
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING AND WILL CLIP THE NORTH CASCADES ON
TUESDAY. THE 18Z GFS40 SHOWS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH TUESDAYS
TROUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES TUE AFTERNOON.

ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE STRONG RIDGE ALONG 138W THAT HAS HELPED TO
PRODUCE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR OVER THE PAST
WEEK IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THIS UPPER HIGH...NOW
AROUND 591 DAM AT 500 MB...IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THU AS IT COLLAPSES TO THE LOWER 580 DAM RANGE. BY
LATER THU INTO FRI...THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN US WILL SHIFT TO AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WITH RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME RATHER STRONGLY ONSHORE OVER THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
COMBINED WITH A HEAT LOW IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY RESULTED IN HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH NEAR
GALE FORCE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND WEST
WINDS OVER 20 MPH AT SHELTON. THIS WILL ALLOW COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH INTO THE PUGET SOUND REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 2-4
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE INTERIOR. AN UPDATE FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE MADE TO THE ZONES AND THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEAKER AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. THE LACK OF STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE 80S IN THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF SEATTLE.

THE INCOMING NAM12 HINTS AT ONSHORE FLOW RAMPING UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MARINE TYPICAL OF A MORE NORMAL
YEAR. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE AFTERNOON LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGE 135W UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG SW ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... WHICH SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING. COMBINED
COOLING FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP MAX
TEMPS BACK TO THE 70S. OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
WEAKER COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN THE PATTERN OF NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU
TUE. CONTD NW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SMOKE LAYERS
FROM NUMEROUS WILDFIRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE ONSHORE PRES GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...THUS ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUE MORNING. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH KTCM AND KPAE BY 1300 UTC. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY... ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
LIFR CIGS.

KSEA...SOME STRATUS /CIGS NEAR 1K FT/ WILL LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHER PRES OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WITH LOWER PRES E OF
THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE LONG TERM. SHORT
TERM...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CASCADES FOR A THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOT ONLY KEEP THIS INSTABILITY BRIEF BUT ALSO
PRETTY LIMITED AREA-WISE. THUS...WILL KEEP CURRENT ISOLATED WORDING
FROM INHERITED FORECAST AND WILL NOT OPT FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL PUT A
HEADLINE ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS ISOLATED LIGHTNING THREAT...GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY DRY NATURE OF FUELS OUT THERE. THE LONG TERM ISSUE
COMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...STARTING THURSDAY...AS A TROF OFF
THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL PUT IN
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL REEVALUATE THE THREAT
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE SHORT TERM ISSUE TUESDAY PANS OUT.  SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND
      NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TIL 2 AM TUESDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 070440
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
GIVING ONSHORE FLOW...AN INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON IS HELPING TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NW
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING AND WILL CLIP THE NORTH CASCADES ON
TUESDAY. THE 18Z GFS40 SHOWS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH TUESDAYS
TROUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES TUE AFTERNOON.

ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE STRONG RIDGE ALONG 138W THAT HAS HELPED TO
PRODUCE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR OVER THE PAST
WEEK IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THIS UPPER HIGH...NOW
AROUND 591 DAM AT 500 MB...IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THU AS IT COLLAPSES TO THE LOWER 580 DAM RANGE. BY
LATER THU INTO FRI...THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN US WILL SHIFT TO AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WITH RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME RATHER STRONGLY ONSHORE OVER THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
COMBINED WITH A HEAT LOW IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY RESULTED IN HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH NEAR
GALE FORCE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND WEST
WINDS OVER 20 MPH AT SHELTON. THIS WILL ALLOW COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH INTO THE PUGET SOUND REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 2-4
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE INTERIOR. AN UPDATE FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE MADE TO THE ZONES AND THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEAKER AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. THE LACK OF STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE 80S IN THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF SEATTLE.

THE INCOMING NAM12 HINTS AT ONSHORE FLOW RAMPING UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MARINE TYPICAL OF A MORE NORMAL
YEAR. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE AFTERNOON LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGE 135W UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG SW ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... WHICH SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING. COMBINED
COOLING FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP MAX
TEMPS BACK TO THE 70S. OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
WEAKER COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN THE PATTERN OF NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU
TUE. CONTD NW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SMOKE LAYERS
FROM NUMEROUS WILDFIRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE ONSHORE PRES GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...THUS ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUE MORNING. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH KTCM AND KPAE BY 1300 UTC. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY... ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
LIFR CIGS.

KSEA...SOME STRATUS /CIGS NEAR 1K FT/ WILL LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHER PRES OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WITH LOWER PRES E OF
THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE LONG TERM. SHORT
TERM...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CASCADES FOR A THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOT ONLY KEEP THIS INSTABILITY BRIEF BUT ALSO
PRETTY LIMITED AREA-WISE. THUS...WILL KEEP CURRENT ISOLATED WORDING
FROM INHERITED FORECAST AND WILL NOT OPT FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL PUT A
HEADLINE ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS ISOLATED LIGHTNING THREAT...GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY DRY NATURE OF FUELS OUT THERE. THE LONG TERM ISSUE
COMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...STARTING THURSDAY...AS A TROF OFF
THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL PUT IN
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL REEVALUATE THE THREAT
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE SHORT TERM ISSUE TUESDAY PANS OUT.  SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND
      NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TIL 2 AM TUESDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 070440
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
GIVING ONSHORE FLOW...AN INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON IS HELPING TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NW
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING AND WILL CLIP THE NORTH CASCADES ON
TUESDAY. THE 18Z GFS40 SHOWS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH TUESDAYS
TROUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES TUE AFTERNOON.

ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE STRONG RIDGE ALONG 138W THAT HAS HELPED TO
PRODUCE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR OVER THE PAST
WEEK IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THIS UPPER HIGH...NOW
AROUND 591 DAM AT 500 MB...IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THU AS IT COLLAPSES TO THE LOWER 580 DAM RANGE. BY
LATER THU INTO FRI...THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN US WILL SHIFT TO AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WITH RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME RATHER STRONGLY ONSHORE OVER THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
COMBINED WITH A HEAT LOW IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY RESULTED IN HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH NEAR
GALE FORCE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND WEST
WINDS OVER 20 MPH AT SHELTON. THIS WILL ALLOW COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH INTO THE PUGET SOUND REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 2-4
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE INTERIOR. AN UPDATE FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE MADE TO THE ZONES AND THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEAKER AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. THE LACK OF STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE 80S IN THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF SEATTLE.

THE INCOMING NAM12 HINTS AT ONSHORE FLOW RAMPING UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MARINE TYPICAL OF A MORE NORMAL
YEAR. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE AFTERNOON LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGE 135W UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG SW ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... WHICH SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING. COMBINED
COOLING FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP MAX
TEMPS BACK TO THE 70S. OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
WEAKER COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN THE PATTERN OF NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THRU
TUE. CONTD NW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SMOKE LAYERS
FROM NUMEROUS WILDFIRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE ONSHORE PRES GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...THUS ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUE MORNING. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH KTCM AND KPAE BY 1300 UTC. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY... ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
LIFR CIGS.

KSEA...SOME STRATUS /CIGS NEAR 1K FT/ WILL LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHER PRES OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WITH LOWER PRES E OF
THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE LONG TERM. SHORT
TERM...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CASCADES FOR A THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOT ONLY KEEP THIS INSTABILITY BRIEF BUT ALSO
PRETTY LIMITED AREA-WISE. THUS...WILL KEEP CURRENT ISOLATED WORDING
FROM INHERITED FORECAST AND WILL NOT OPT FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL PUT A
HEADLINE ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS ISOLATED LIGHTNING THREAT...GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY DRY NATURE OF FUELS OUT THERE. THE LONG TERM ISSUE
COMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...STARTING THURSDAY...AS A TROF OFF
THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL PUT IN
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL REEVALUATE THE THREAT
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE SHORT TERM ISSUE TUESDAY PANS OUT.  SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND
      NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TIL 2 AM TUESDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
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  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 070414
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
913 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY
WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
AREAS MUCH COOLER. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN
LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REX BLOCK OVER THE NE
PACIFIC IS HOLDING STEADY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW IS MOVING OVER
LANE COUNTY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS BAND...BUT THEY ARE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING...LOSING STEAM WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE B.C. COAST THIS EVENING TOWARDS WASHINGTON. THIS WAVE COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH IS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SW
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH MARINE AIR INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

ANY STRATUS MOVING INLAND SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES
COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS AND NAM 850MB TEMPS STILL
SUPPORT 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AND WIT TO SEE HOW MUCH
STRATUS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REX BLOCK WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE AREA AND INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL  PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE COAST AND PUSHING  PARTIALLY INLAND EACH NIGHT...ALLOWING
INLAND TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND SOUTH OF
OREGON AND EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT NEAR OR ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MUCH NEEDED CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER ALASKA STARTS TO EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER
MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN THE 15 DEGREES THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY FOR COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST INLAND TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 10Z. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE
PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 11-16Z. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
VALLEY LOOK TO REMAIN VFR UNDER SCATTERED SKIES. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 21-04Z.

MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS IFR AFTER 07Z...WITH
LOCAL AREAS OF LIFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-02Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR LATE TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH
BUILDS IN TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN SWELL OF AROUND
2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON TUESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 070414
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
913 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY
WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
AREAS MUCH COOLER. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN
LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REX BLOCK OVER THE NE
PACIFIC IS HOLDING STEADY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW IS MOVING OVER
LANE COUNTY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS BAND...BUT THEY ARE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING...LOSING STEAM WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE B.C. COAST THIS EVENING TOWARDS WASHINGTON. THIS WAVE COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH IS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SW
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH MARINE AIR INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

ANY STRATUS MOVING INLAND SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES
COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS AND NAM 850MB TEMPS STILL
SUPPORT 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AND WIT TO SEE HOW MUCH
STRATUS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REX BLOCK WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE AREA AND INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL  PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE COAST AND PUSHING  PARTIALLY INLAND EACH NIGHT...ALLOWING
INLAND TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND SOUTH OF
OREGON AND EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT NEAR OR ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MUCH NEEDED CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER ALASKA STARTS TO EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER
MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN THE 15 DEGREES THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY FOR COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST INLAND TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 10Z. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE
PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 11-16Z. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
VALLEY LOOK TO REMAIN VFR UNDER SCATTERED SKIES. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 21-04Z.

MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS IFR AFTER 07Z...WITH
LOCAL AREAS OF LIFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-02Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR LATE TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH
BUILDS IN TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN SWELL OF AROUND
2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON TUESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 070414
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
913 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY
WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
AREAS MUCH COOLER. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN
LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REX BLOCK OVER THE NE
PACIFIC IS HOLDING STEADY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW IS MOVING OVER
LANE COUNTY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS BAND...BUT THEY ARE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING...LOSING STEAM WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE B.C. COAST THIS EVENING TOWARDS WASHINGTON. THIS WAVE COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH IS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SW
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH MARINE AIR INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

ANY STRATUS MOVING INLAND SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES
COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS AND NAM 850MB TEMPS STILL
SUPPORT 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AND WIT TO SEE HOW MUCH
STRATUS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REX BLOCK WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE AREA AND INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL  PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE COAST AND PUSHING  PARTIALLY INLAND EACH NIGHT...ALLOWING
INLAND TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND SOUTH OF
OREGON AND EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT NEAR OR ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MUCH NEEDED CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER ALASKA STARTS TO EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER
MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN THE 15 DEGREES THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY FOR COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST INLAND TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 10Z. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE
PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 11-16Z. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
VALLEY LOOK TO REMAIN VFR UNDER SCATTERED SKIES. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 21-04Z.

MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS IFR AFTER 07Z...WITH
LOCAL AREAS OF LIFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-02Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR LATE TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH
BUILDS IN TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN SWELL OF AROUND
2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON TUESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 070414
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
913 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY
WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
AREAS MUCH COOLER. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN
LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REX BLOCK OVER THE NE
PACIFIC IS HOLDING STEADY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW IS MOVING OVER
LANE COUNTY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS BAND...BUT THEY ARE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING...LOSING STEAM WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE B.C. COAST THIS EVENING TOWARDS WASHINGTON. THIS WAVE COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH IS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SW
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH MARINE AIR INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

ANY STRATUS MOVING INLAND SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES
COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS AND NAM 850MB TEMPS STILL
SUPPORT 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AND WIT TO SEE HOW MUCH
STRATUS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REX BLOCK WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE AREA AND INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL  PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE COAST AND PUSHING  PARTIALLY INLAND EACH NIGHT...ALLOWING
INLAND TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND SOUTH OF
OREGON AND EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT NEAR OR ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MUCH NEEDED CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER ALASKA STARTS TO EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER
MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN THE 15 DEGREES THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY FOR COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST INLAND TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 10Z. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE
PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 11-16Z. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
VALLEY LOOK TO REMAIN VFR UNDER SCATTERED SKIES. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 21-04Z.

MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS IFR AFTER 07Z...WITH
LOCAL AREAS OF LIFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-02Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR LATE TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH
BUILDS IN TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN SWELL OF AROUND
2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON TUESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 070414
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
913 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY
WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
AREAS MUCH COOLER. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN
LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REX BLOCK OVER THE NE
PACIFIC IS HOLDING STEADY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW IS MOVING OVER
LANE COUNTY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS BAND...BUT THEY ARE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING...LOSING STEAM WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE B.C. COAST THIS EVENING TOWARDS WASHINGTON. THIS WAVE COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH IS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SW
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH MARINE AIR INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

ANY STRATUS MOVING INLAND SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES
COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS AND NAM 850MB TEMPS STILL
SUPPORT 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AND WIT TO SEE HOW MUCH
STRATUS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REX BLOCK WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE AREA AND INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL  PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE COAST AND PUSHING  PARTIALLY INLAND EACH NIGHT...ALLOWING
INLAND TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND SOUTH OF
OREGON AND EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT NEAR OR ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MUCH NEEDED CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER ALASKA STARTS TO EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER
MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN THE 15 DEGREES THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY FOR COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST INLAND TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 10Z. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE
PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 11-16Z. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
VALLEY LOOK TO REMAIN VFR UNDER SCATTERED SKIES. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 21-04Z.

MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS IFR AFTER 07Z...WITH
LOCAL AREAS OF LIFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-02Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR LATE TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH
BUILDS IN TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN SWELL OF AROUND
2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON TUESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 070414
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
913 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY
WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
AREAS MUCH COOLER. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN
LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REX BLOCK OVER THE NE
PACIFIC IS HOLDING STEADY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW IS MOVING OVER
LANE COUNTY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS BAND...BUT THEY ARE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING...LOSING STEAM WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE B.C. COAST THIS EVENING TOWARDS WASHINGTON. THIS WAVE COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH IS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SW
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH MARINE AIR INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

ANY STRATUS MOVING INLAND SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MOS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES
COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS AND NAM 850MB TEMPS STILL
SUPPORT 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AND WIT TO SEE HOW MUCH
STRATUS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REX BLOCK WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
TO MOVE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE AREA AND INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL  PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE COAST AND PUSHING  PARTIALLY INLAND EACH NIGHT...ALLOWING
INLAND TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND SOUTH OF
OREGON AND EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT NEAR OR ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MUCH NEEDED CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER ALASKA STARTS TO EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER
MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL RATHER THAN THE 15 DEGREES THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY FOR COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST INLAND TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 10Z. MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE
PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 11-16Z. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
VALLEY LOOK TO REMAIN VFR UNDER SCATTERED SKIES. INSTABILITY OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 21-04Z.

MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS IFR AFTER 07Z...WITH
LOCAL AREAS OF LIFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-02Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR LATE TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH
BUILDS IN TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN SWELL OF AROUND
2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER THE WATERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON TUESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 070029
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
528 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada Tuesday, with a threat of showers and thunderstorms
across, largely across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday night....The weather during this period
will revolve around a shortwave trough currently dropping
southeast through southern British Columbia. This feature is
expected to drop toward NE corner of Washington and the northern
tip of the Idaho Panhandle overnight. As it does we expect to see
increasing amounts of mid level moisture and instability track
into that area. Model soundings in the vicinity of this feature
suggest we will see some of this instability and moisture develop
into showers late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning. The
soundings also suggest a very small chance for a few lightning
strikes due to elevated instability near the Canadian border
toward morning but the threat isn`t great enough to place in the
forecasts at this time. A much better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will arrive during the afternoon and evening hours
as a more robust upper level shortwave tracks south across the
Canadian border. This shortwave will lower temperatures in the
upper atmosphere while warming and moistening the lower
atmosphere, a prime recipe for thunderstorms provided sufficient
lifting. And it looks like this shortwave will provide the
necessary lift. So the pieces are in place for a decent
thunderstorm event. Most of them will likely occur over NE
Washington and north Idaho based on the best potential instability
combined with the best upper level forcing from the positioning of
the jet stream. However the threat will likely extend west toward
the Cascades as well. Looks like most of the thunderstorms will
initiate by early afternoon near the Canadian border and spread
south through the evening. Based on wind profiles and instability
parameters we don`t expect to see any strong thunderstorms however
based on elevated cloud bases and rather dry conditions below
there will be a chance of some moderate thunderstorm outflow
winds. Also based on the dry sub-cloud layer we don`t expect to
see widespread heavy rains, however most of the storms will
produce some rainfall. The other threat will be for new fire
starts based on the extremely dry fuels. The question is how much
lightning will we see. Based on the instability parameters it
looks like most will occur over extreme NE Washington and the
northern Idaho Panhandle. The fire weather watch still seems like
a good call, however in an effort to coordinate with neighboring
offices will leave the watch going rather than upgrading to a red
flag warning.

The threat of thunder should ware rapidly overnight as the
shortwave begins to shear and stretch as it moves toward the
Washington/Oregon border. fx.

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the forecast
period. Mid and high level moisture will stream in from the north.
A weak disturbance will brush the Canadian border overnight and
dig south over north Idaho on Tuesday. This will help increase
cloud cover and bring a threat of convection to the north and east
of the KGEG-KCOE corridor. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven overnight and into Tuesday morning. Expect a push of
north-northeast winds by Tuesday afternoon. rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 062353 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
452 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.UPDATE...SW WINDS PUSHED COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. THIS COOLER AIR COMBINED
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE LANE COUNTY RESULTED
IN MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS OF
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS
WERE ALSO COOLER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE FURTHER DISTANCE OF THE
THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER
BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN...AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY UNDER 90 DEG F FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
AREAS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE STRETCH OF HOT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +18 TO 20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED
WARM WEATHER WITH INLAND TEMPS NEAR 90F. THE LONGEST CONTINUED
STRETCH OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10
DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90
DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2PM SHOWS CUMULUS BUILDING ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST EACH DAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEING THE
MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOL DOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST. AREAS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST 05Z-15Z. STRATUS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND TO KKLS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KPDX 12-15Z. INSTABILITY
OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 04Z OVER CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW 21Z-04Z UNDER INFLUENCE OF LOW TO OFF
OF CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.  SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY TUESDAY.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 11Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
MIXING WHICH IS ALLOWING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT UNTIL SUNSET. AS THE
OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS IN  TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVE SWELL
OF AROUND 2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER
THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON
TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 062353 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
452 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.UPDATE...SW WINDS PUSHED COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. THIS COOLER AIR COMBINED
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE LANE COUNTY RESULTED
IN MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS OF
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS
WERE ALSO COOLER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE FURTHER DISTANCE OF THE
THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER
BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN...AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY UNDER 90 DEG F FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
AREAS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE STRETCH OF HOT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +18 TO 20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED
WARM WEATHER WITH INLAND TEMPS NEAR 90F. THE LONGEST CONTINUED
STRETCH OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10
DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90
DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2PM SHOWS CUMULUS BUILDING ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST EACH DAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEING THE
MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOL DOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST. AREAS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST 05Z-15Z. STRATUS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND TO KKLS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KPDX 12-15Z. INSTABILITY
OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 04Z OVER CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW 21Z-04Z UNDER INFLUENCE OF LOW TO OFF
OF CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.  SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY TUESDAY.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 11Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
MIXING WHICH IS ALLOWING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT UNTIL SUNSET. AS THE
OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS IN  TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVE SWELL
OF AROUND 2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER
THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON
TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 062349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada Tuesday, with a threat of showers and thunderstorms
across, largely across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the forecast
period. Mid and high level moisture will stream in from the north.
A weak disturbance will brush the Canadian border overnight and
dig south over north Idaho on Tuesday. This will help increase
cloud cover and bring a threat of convection to the north and east
of the KGEG-KCOE corridor. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven overnight and into Tuesday morning. Expect a push of
north-northeast winds by Tuesday afternoon. rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 062349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada Tuesday, with a threat of showers and thunderstorms
across, largely across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the forecast
period. Mid and high level moisture will stream in from the north.
A weak disturbance will brush the Canadian border overnight and
dig south over north Idaho on Tuesday. This will help increase
cloud cover and bring a threat of convection to the north and east
of the KGEG-KCOE corridor. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven overnight and into Tuesday morning. Expect a push of
north-northeast winds by Tuesday afternoon. rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 062349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada Tuesday, with a threat of showers and thunderstorms
across, largely across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the forecast
period. Mid and high level moisture will stream in from the north.
A weak disturbance will brush the Canadian border overnight and
dig south over north Idaho on Tuesday. This will help increase
cloud cover and bring a threat of convection to the north and east
of the KGEG-KCOE corridor. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven overnight and into Tuesday morning. Expect a push of
north-northeast winds by Tuesday afternoon. rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 062349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada Tuesday, with a threat of showers and thunderstorms
across, largely across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the forecast
period. Mid and high level moisture will stream in from the north.
A weak disturbance will brush the Canadian border overnight and
dig south over north Idaho on Tuesday. This will help increase
cloud cover and bring a threat of convection to the north and east
of the KGEG-KCOE corridor. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven overnight and into Tuesday morning. Expect a push of
north-northeast winds by Tuesday afternoon. rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 062247
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
348 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THIS WEEK ALLOWING DAILY TEMPERATURES TO COOL VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MORE NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE JUST W OF THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER W WA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT HIGH AT JUST BELOW 5850 METERS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY COLLAPSE THIS WEEK.

A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT AIR MASS COOLING. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN B.C. THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE N
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON IS RUNNING ABOUT 1.5 MB AHEAD OF YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BRING SHALLOW STRATUS INLAND ACROSS MOST OF PUGET SOUND
TUESDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH THE SLIGHT GENERAL AIR MASS
COOLING...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MAX TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE COLLAPSING WEDNESDAY...BUT
PROGRESSES E OVER B.C. AND THE PACNW...FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND BRIEF AIR MASS WARMING. ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WEAKER AND FROM THE NW...PRODUCING LESS STRATUS OVER INLAND
AREAS. AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE E OVER CENTRAL CANADA AS AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
135W SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. MORNING STRATUS OVER THE COAST AND
LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
DAY FOR THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR MASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE GFS
SHOWS S FLOW DEVELOPING AT 700 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE CREST. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THIS. I WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AND BLEND IN
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...AND ADD A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADE CREST. KAM

.LONG TERM...SW ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
LARGE 135W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG
SW ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN STRATUS FRIDAY
MORNING. COMBINED COOLING FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD DROP MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE 70S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE NORMAL SUMMER
PATTERN THE PATTERN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST WILL PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT
AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO NEAR I-5 AROUND
DAYBREAK. A TYPICAL BURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST IS LIKELY TUESDAY.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN A BIT HAZY AND THE SMOKE ALOFT SEEMS TO BE
PERSISTING FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

KSEA...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT INTO SEA-TAC FOR A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPER ON THE
COAST NOW.

&&

.MARINE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN
STRAIT WILL PUSH INLAND LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE COAST AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES RESULTING IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THE WIND SHOULD BE AROUND GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO RACE ROCKS...AND A GALE WARNING IS UP
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT AS MARINE AIR PUSHES IN. THE WEST
ENTRANCE AND NRN WATERS HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND SOME BREEZY
WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH THE MARINE AIR PUSHING IN THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FORECAST CONCERNS IN BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE
LONG TERM. SHORT TERM...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CASCADES FOR A THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS NOT ONLY KEEP THIS INSTABILITY BRIEF BUT
ALSO PRETTY LIMITED AREA-WISE. THUS...WILL KEEP CURRENT ISOLATED
WORDING FROM INHERITED FORECAST AND WILL NOT OPT FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL
PUT A HEADLINE ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS ISOLATED LIGHTNING
THREAT...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY NATURE OF FUELS OUT THERE. THE LONG
TERM ISSUE COMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...STARTING THURSDAY...AS
A TROF OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...WILL PUT IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL REEVALUATE
THE THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE SHORT TERM ISSUE TUESDAY PANS
OUT.  SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT AND NRN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 062247
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
348 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THIS WEEK ALLOWING DAILY TEMPERATURES TO COOL VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MORE NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE JUST W OF THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER W WA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT HIGH AT JUST BELOW 5850 METERS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY COLLAPSE THIS WEEK.

A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT AIR MASS COOLING. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN B.C. THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE N
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON IS RUNNING ABOUT 1.5 MB AHEAD OF YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BRING SHALLOW STRATUS INLAND ACROSS MOST OF PUGET SOUND
TUESDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH THE SLIGHT GENERAL AIR MASS
COOLING...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MAX TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE COLLAPSING WEDNESDAY...BUT
PROGRESSES E OVER B.C. AND THE PACNW...FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND BRIEF AIR MASS WARMING. ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WEAKER AND FROM THE NW...PRODUCING LESS STRATUS OVER INLAND
AREAS. AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE E OVER CENTRAL CANADA AS AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
135W SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. MORNING STRATUS OVER THE COAST AND
LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
DAY FOR THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR MASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE GFS
SHOWS S FLOW DEVELOPING AT 700 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADE CREST. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THIS. I WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AND BLEND IN
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...AND ADD A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADE CREST. KAM

.LONG TERM...SW ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
LARGE 135W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG
SW ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN STRATUS FRIDAY
MORNING. COMBINED COOLING FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD DROP MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE 70S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE NORMAL SUMMER
PATTERN THE PATTERN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST WILL PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT
AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO NEAR I-5 AROUND
DAYBREAK. A TYPICAL BURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST IS LIKELY TUESDAY.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN A BIT HAZY AND THE SMOKE ALOFT SEEMS TO BE
PERSISTING FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

KSEA...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT INTO SEA-TAC FOR A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPER ON THE
COAST NOW.

&&

.MARINE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN
STRAIT WILL PUSH INLAND LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE COAST AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES RESULTING IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THE WIND SHOULD BE AROUND GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO RACE ROCKS...AND A GALE WARNING IS UP
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT AS MARINE AIR PUSHES IN. THE WEST
ENTRANCE AND NRN WATERS HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND SOME BREEZY
WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH THE MARINE AIR PUSHING IN THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FORECAST CONCERNS IN BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE
LONG TERM. SHORT TERM...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CASCADES FOR A THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS NOT ONLY KEEP THIS INSTABILITY BRIEF BUT
ALSO PRETTY LIMITED AREA-WISE. THUS...WILL KEEP CURRENT ISOLATED
WORDING FROM INHERITED FORECAST AND WILL NOT OPT FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL
PUT A HEADLINE ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS ISOLATED LIGHTNING
THREAT...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY NATURE OF FUELS OUT THERE. THE LONG
TERM ISSUE COMES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...STARTING THURSDAY...AS
A TROF OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...WILL PUT IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL REEVALUATE
THE THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE SHORT TERM ISSUE TUESDAY PANS
OUT.  SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT AND NRN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
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000
FXUS66 KPQR 062207
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 PM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WILL COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +18 TO 20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED
WARM WEATHER WITH INLAND TEMPS NEAR 90F. THE LONGEST CONTINUED
STRETCH OF 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10
DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90
DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2PM SHOWS CUMULUS BUILDING ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST EACH DAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEING THE
MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOL DOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST. AREAS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST 05Z-15Z. STRATUS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND TO KKLS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KPDX 12-15Z. INSTABILITY
OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 04Z OVER CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW 21Z-04Z UNDER INFLUENCE OF LOW TO OFF
OF CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.  SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY TUESDAY.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 11Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO STRONG SO WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10 KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
MIXING WHICH IS ALLOWING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT UNTIL SUNSET. AS THE
OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS IN  TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVE SWELL
OF AROUND 2 FT IS COMBINED WITH A 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHWEST SWELL OVER
THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH SWELL WEAKENS AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DOMINANT SWELL WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST SWELL ON
TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 062157
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
257 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada late tonight and Tuesday, with a threat of showers
and thunderstorms. The most widespread thunderstorms are expected
to occur over the northeast corner of Washington as well as over
the northern Idaho Panhandle.  Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend. The weather pattern at the
end of the week will bring cooler temperatures to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday night....The weather during this period
will revolve around a shortwave trough currently dropping
southeast through southern British Columbia. This feature is
expected to drop toward NE corner of Washington and the northern
tip of the Idaho Panhandle overnight. As it does we expect to see
increasing amounts of mid level moisture and instability track
into that area. Model soundings in the vicinity of this feature
suggest we will see some of this instability and moisture develop
into showers late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning. The
soundings also suggest a very small chance for a few lightning
strikes due to elevated instability near the Canadian border
toward morning but the threat isn`t great enough to place in the
forecasts at this time. A much better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will arrive during the afternoon and evening hours
as a more robust upper level shortwave tracks south across the
Canadian border. This shortwave will lower temperatures in the
upper atmosphere while warming and moistening the lower
atmosphere, a prime recipe for thunderstorms provided sufficient
lifting. And it looks like this shortwave will provide the
necessary lift. So the pieces are in place for a decent
thunderstorm event. Most of them will likely occur over NE
Washington and north Idaho based on the best potential instability
combined with the best upper level forcing from the positioning of
the jet stream. However the threat will likely extend west toward
the Cascades as well. Looks like most of the thunderstorms will
initiate by early afternoon near the Canadian border and spread
south through the evening. Based on wind profiles and instability
parameters we don`t expect to see any strong thunderstorms however
based on elevated cloud bases and rather dry conditions below
there will be a chance of some moderate thunderstorm outflow
winds. Also based on the dry sub-cloud layer we don`t expect to
see widespread heavy rains, however most of the storms will
produce some rainfall. The other threat will be for new fire
starts based on the extremely dry fuels. The question is how much
lightning will we see. Based on the instability parameters it
looks like most will occur over extreme NE Washington and the
northern Idaho Panhandle. The fire weather watch still seems like
a good call, however in an effort to coordinate with neighboring
offices will leave the watch going rather than upgrading to a red
flag warning.

The threat of thunder should ware rapidly overnight as the
shortwave begins to shear and stretch as it moves toward the
Washington/Oregon border. fx.

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected through this forecast
period. The main weather of consequence will be the approach of a
weak upper level disturbance moving SE through BC. This will
gradually increase the clouds overnight and into Tue morning. It
could also bring a few showers to extreme NE WA and N ID after 08z.
Wildfire smoke could also pose some restricted visibilities issues
overnight and early Tuesday. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 062157
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
257 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada late tonight and Tuesday, with a threat of showers
and thunderstorms. The most widespread thunderstorms are expected
to occur over the northeast corner of Washington as well as over
the northern Idaho Panhandle.  Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend. The weather pattern at the
end of the week will bring cooler temperatures to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday night....The weather during this period
will revolve around a shortwave trough currently dropping
southeast through southern British Columbia. This feature is
expected to drop toward NE corner of Washington and the northern
tip of the Idaho Panhandle overnight. As it does we expect to see
increasing amounts of mid level moisture and instability track
into that area. Model soundings in the vicinity of this feature
suggest we will see some of this instability and moisture develop
into showers late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning. The
soundings also suggest a very small chance for a few lightning
strikes due to elevated instability near the Canadian border
toward morning but the threat isn`t great enough to place in the
forecasts at this time. A much better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will arrive during the afternoon and evening hours
as a more robust upper level shortwave tracks south across the
Canadian border. This shortwave will lower temperatures in the
upper atmosphere while warming and moistening the lower
atmosphere, a prime recipe for thunderstorms provided sufficient
lifting. And it looks like this shortwave will provide the
necessary lift. So the pieces are in place for a decent
thunderstorm event. Most of them will likely occur over NE
Washington and north Idaho based on the best potential instability
combined with the best upper level forcing from the positioning of
the jet stream. However the threat will likely extend west toward
the Cascades as well. Looks like most of the thunderstorms will
initiate by early afternoon near the Canadian border and spread
south through the evening. Based on wind profiles and instability
parameters we don`t expect to see any strong thunderstorms however
based on elevated cloud bases and rather dry conditions below
there will be a chance of some moderate thunderstorm outflow
winds. Also based on the dry sub-cloud layer we don`t expect to
see widespread heavy rains, however most of the storms will
produce some rainfall. The other threat will be for new fire
starts based on the extremely dry fuels. The question is how much
lightning will we see. Based on the instability parameters it
looks like most will occur over extreme NE Washington and the
northern Idaho Panhandle. The fire weather watch still seems like
a good call, however in an effort to coordinate with neighboring
offices will leave the watch going rather than upgrading to a red
flag warning.

The threat of thunder should ware rapidly overnight as the
shortwave begins to shear and stretch as it moves toward the
Washington/Oregon border. fx.

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected through this forecast
period. The main weather of consequence will be the approach of a
weak upper level disturbance moving SE through BC. This will
gradually increase the clouds overnight and into Tue morning. It
could also bring a few showers to extreme NE WA and N ID after 08z.
Wildfire smoke could also pose some restricted visibilities issues
overnight and early Tuesday. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 062157
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
257 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada late tonight and Tuesday, with a threat of showers
and thunderstorms. The most widespread thunderstorms are expected
to occur over the northeast corner of Washington as well as over
the northern Idaho Panhandle.  Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend. The weather pattern at the
end of the week will bring cooler temperatures to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday night....The weather during this period
will revolve around a shortwave trough currently dropping
southeast through southern British Columbia. This feature is
expected to drop toward NE corner of Washington and the northern
tip of the Idaho Panhandle overnight. As it does we expect to see
increasing amounts of mid level moisture and instability track
into that area. Model soundings in the vicinity of this feature
suggest we will see some of this instability and moisture develop
into showers late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning. The
soundings also suggest a very small chance for a few lightning
strikes due to elevated instability near the Canadian border
toward morning but the threat isn`t great enough to place in the
forecasts at this time. A much better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will arrive during the afternoon and evening hours
as a more robust upper level shortwave tracks south across the
Canadian border. This shortwave will lower temperatures in the
upper atmosphere while warming and moistening the lower
atmosphere, a prime recipe for thunderstorms provided sufficient
lifting. And it looks like this shortwave will provide the
necessary lift. So the pieces are in place for a decent
thunderstorm event. Most of them will likely occur over NE
Washington and north Idaho based on the best potential instability
combined with the best upper level forcing from the positioning of
the jet stream. However the threat will likely extend west toward
the Cascades as well. Looks like most of the thunderstorms will
initiate by early afternoon near the Canadian border and spread
south through the evening. Based on wind profiles and instability
parameters we don`t expect to see any strong thunderstorms however
based on elevated cloud bases and rather dry conditions below
there will be a chance of some moderate thunderstorm outflow
winds. Also based on the dry sub-cloud layer we don`t expect to
see widespread heavy rains, however most of the storms will
produce some rainfall. The other threat will be for new fire
starts based on the extremely dry fuels. The question is how much
lightning will we see. Based on the instability parameters it
looks like most will occur over extreme NE Washington and the
northern Idaho Panhandle. The fire weather watch still seems like
a good call, however in an effort to coordinate with neighboring
offices will leave the watch going rather than upgrading to a red
flag warning.

The threat of thunder should ware rapidly overnight as the
shortwave begins to shear and stretch as it moves toward the
Washington/Oregon border. fx.

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected through this forecast
period. The main weather of consequence will be the approach of a
weak upper level disturbance moving SE through BC. This will
gradually increase the clouds overnight and into Tue morning. It
could also bring a few showers to extreme NE WA and N ID after 08z.
Wildfire smoke could also pose some restricted visibilities issues
overnight and early Tuesday. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 062157
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
257 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and dry conditions, another weather system drops in
from Canada late tonight and Tuesday, with a threat of showers
and thunderstorms. The most widespread thunderstorms are expected
to occur over the northeast corner of Washington as well as over
the northern Idaho Panhandle.  Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances
return toward Friday into next weekend. The weather pattern at the
end of the week will bring cooler temperatures to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday night....The weather during this period
will revolve around a shortwave trough currently dropping
southeast through southern British Columbia. This feature is
expected to drop toward NE corner of Washington and the northern
tip of the Idaho Panhandle overnight. As it does we expect to see
increasing amounts of mid level moisture and instability track
into that area. Model soundings in the vicinity of this feature
suggest we will see some of this instability and moisture develop
into showers late tonight and persist into Tuesday morning. The
soundings also suggest a very small chance for a few lightning
strikes due to elevated instability near the Canadian border
toward morning but the threat isn`t great enough to place in the
forecasts at this time. A much better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will arrive during the afternoon and evening hours
as a more robust upper level shortwave tracks south across the
Canadian border. This shortwave will lower temperatures in the
upper atmosphere while warming and moistening the lower
atmosphere, a prime recipe for thunderstorms provided sufficient
lifting. And it looks like this shortwave will provide the
necessary lift. So the pieces are in place for a decent
thunderstorm event. Most of them will likely occur over NE
Washington and north Idaho based on the best potential instability
combined with the best upper level forcing from the positioning of
the jet stream. However the threat will likely extend west toward
the Cascades as well. Looks like most of the thunderstorms will
initiate by early afternoon near the Canadian border and spread
south through the evening. Based on wind profiles and instability
parameters we don`t expect to see any strong thunderstorms however
based on elevated cloud bases and rather dry conditions below
there will be a chance of some moderate thunderstorm outflow
winds. Also based on the dry sub-cloud layer we don`t expect to
see widespread heavy rains, however most of the storms will
produce some rainfall. The other threat will be for new fire
starts based on the extremely dry fuels. The question is how much
lightning will we see. Based on the instability parameters it
looks like most will occur over extreme NE Washington and the
northern Idaho Panhandle. The fire weather watch still seems like
a good call, however in an effort to coordinate with neighboring
offices will leave the watch going rather than upgrading to a red
flag warning.

The threat of thunder should ware rapidly overnight as the
shortwave begins to shear and stretch as it moves toward the
Washington/Oregon border. fx.

Wednesday through Monday: After a relative lull, the active
pattern continues with the return of the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal much of the
period, but look for a relative cool-down toward the weekend. And
beyond next Monday models suggest perhaps a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

First on Wednesday a front stalls over the southern ID Panhandle
and northeast OR. Behind it is drier air and broader subsidence.
So for the most part the region will be dry. Yet there will be a
small risk of showers or t-storms along that boundary during the
afternoon near the Blues, Camas Prairie and far southeast Shoshone
county. There is the off-chance for shower showers near the
Cascades of Chelan county in the northeast flow, but confidence is
rather low and there is not real mention of it other than here.

Secondly on Thursday low pressure off the CA coast moves toward
the western Great Basin. So the flow over our area turns east-
southeast, the stalled front edges north and some weak mid-level
disturbances lift in. And some moisture starts to expand north. So
look for a better threat of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast CWA and near the Cascades. Clouds will begin to increase
elsewhere.

Thirdly from Friday through Monday the pattern changes. The
former CA low stretches toward the High Plains and a trough
deepening in the Pacific approaches the coast. The flow turns
southwest and a better fetch of moisture rides in, with PWATs
rising to an inch or so. Systems passing in this pattern will have
increased instability and the aforementioned moisture to bring the
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing the
individual shortwaves that will bring in these precipitation
chances. At this time models suggest a boundary passing Friday or
Friday night and then a shortwave riding in on a modest jet streak
Sunday appear to be the catalyst.

In general look for the best threat of showers and thunderstorms
each day around the mountain zones, especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the valley and basin zones loose
agreement suggests Friday/Friday night and Sunday may be the
periods with a better threat of showers and thunderstorms with the
passage of the aforementioned features. As said, there is some
disagreement on timing so stay tuned as things come into better
focus. Regardless of timing, given the amount of moisture and the
potential instability models depict at this point I`d be hard-
pressed to say that there will be no chance in the valley/basin
areas.

With the increasing moisture during this time it is expected the
showers and thunderstorms will be wetter. So while there will
still be some concern for wildfire ignitions from any lightning,
the overall threat appears smaller compared to the current
pattern. Another issue we will monitor is the potential for
localized flooding, especially around any burn scars from last
years or even this years newer wildfires. This will be due to the
potential for wetter and potentially slower-moving or training
storms. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected through this forecast
period. The main weather of consequence will be the approach of a
weak upper level disturbance moving SE through BC. This will
gradually increase the clouds overnight and into Tue morning. It
could also bring a few showers to extreme NE WA and N ID after 08z.
Wildfire smoke could also pose some restricted visibilities issues
overnight and early Tuesday. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  91  65  93  66  96 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  89  61  91  61  95 /  10  50  20  10  10  10
Pullman        57  90  57  91  57  94 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  68  99  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       63  91  60  97  61 100 /  10  50  30  10   0  10
Sandpoint      55  84  55  90  54  94 /  20  50  40  10  10  10
Kellogg        58  87  56  90  57  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  20
Moses Lake     65 100  69 100  67 102 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      69  99  72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Omak           65  98  65 100  67 102 /  10  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 061901
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1145 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected through this forecast
period. The main weather of consequence will be the approach of a
weak upper level disturbance moving SE through BC. This will
gradually increase the clouds overnight and into Tue morning. It
could also bring a few showers to extreme NE WA and N ID after 08z.
Wildfire smoke could also pose some restricted visibilities issues
overnight and early Tuesday. fx

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061700
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO ABOUT KELSO. HOT WEATHER CONTINUES EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
AT 9AM RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT INLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL HOT.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED 90 PLUS
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LONGEST CONTINUED STRETCH OF 90 PLUS
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10 DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-
AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS
DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUES AFTERNOON.  THERE IS NO
OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...SO ANY
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CURRENT FCST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS
REASONABLE.TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND TODAY. IFR
STRATUS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP
AND THE NEHALEM RIVER GAP THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAS BROKEN UP SOME UNDER INFLUENCE OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH
COAST TO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH IFR AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS OVER THE
NORTH OREGON COAST WILL SLOWLY BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE WITH
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z....THEN RETURNING AROUND 02Z.
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
STEERING FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CASCADES. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 09Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061700
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO ABOUT KELSO. HOT WEATHER CONTINUES EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
AT 9AM RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT INLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL HOT.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED 90 PLUS
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LONGEST CONTINUED STRETCH OF 90 PLUS
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10 DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-
AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS
DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUES AFTERNOON.  THERE IS NO
OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...SO ANY
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CURRENT FCST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS
REASONABLE.TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND TODAY. IFR
STRATUS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP
AND THE NEHALEM RIVER GAP THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAS BROKEN UP SOME UNDER INFLUENCE OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH
COAST TO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH IFR AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS OVER THE
NORTH OREGON COAST WILL SLOWLY BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE WITH
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z....THEN RETURNING AROUND 02Z.
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
STEERING FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CASCADES. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 09Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061700
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO ABOUT KELSO. HOT WEATHER CONTINUES EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
AT 9AM RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT INLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL HOT.

850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH WED FOR CONTINUED 90 PLUS
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LONGEST CONTINUED STRETCH OF 90 PLUS
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PORTLAND AREA IS 10 DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED JUL 25-
AUG 3 2009. THIS RECORD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TIED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 90 PLUS
DEGREES IN PORTLAND WITH 2 OR 3 MORE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUES AFTERNOON.  THERE IS NO
OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...SO ANY
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CURRENT FCST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS
REASONABLE.TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO THIS HISTORIC HEAT
WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US UNDER ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT
THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF ITS COOLING
INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT
CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP MIDWEEK
AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE INTERIOR
GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INLAND TODAY. IFR
STRATUS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP
AND THE NEHALEM RIVER GAP THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAS BROKEN UP SOME UNDER INFLUENCE OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH
COAST TO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH IFR AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS OVER THE
NORTH OREGON COAST WILL SLOWLY BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE WITH
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z....THEN RETURNING AROUND 02Z.
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
STEERING FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CASCADES. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR KKLS AFT 09Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND KPDX 13-15Z TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 061617
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
917 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THIS WEEK ALLOWING DAILY TEMPERATURES TO COOL VERY SLOWLY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE JUST W OF THE B.C. COAST THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW ALOFT DOWN
THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER W WA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
HIGH AT CLOSE TO 5850 METERS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY COLLAPSE THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE SLIGHT AIR MASS COOLING ON TUESDAY RESULTING FROM A COUPLE OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF
THE TROUGHS WHICH SHOULD BE OVER THE YUKON THIS MORNING COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE N CASCADES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE COLLAPSING WEDNESDAY...BUT
PROGRESSES E OVER B.C. AND THE PACNW...FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND BRIEF AIR MASS WARMING. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

ONSHORE FLOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE A BIGGER FACTOR THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW LAST NIGHT WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WEAK SW COMPONENT MANAGED TO PUSH A
SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER INLAND OVER THE SW PART OF PUGET SOUND THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT TONIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH
PROGS FROM THE NAM AND ARW MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY GREATER STRATUS
COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP MAKE TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
COOLER...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.

ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND FROM THE NW...SO
STRATUS SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA...MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

THERE IS STILL SMOKE FROM THE B.C. FOREST FIRES OVER THE N HALF OF W
WA THIS MORNING. ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS SLOWLY
THINNING OUT. SW FLOW ALOFT TODAY BELOW 700 MB SHOULD HELP CLEAR THE
LOWER LEVELS...BUT AT ONLY 5-10 KT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. FLOW
ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD BE NW 10-20 KT. NAM MODELS SHOWS THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING E-NE ON TUESDAY...SO DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH SMOKE THE
FIRES PUT OUT TONIGHT ANOTHER INCREASE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
KAM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST HURRAH OF THE RECENT
EXTENDED WARM STRETCH. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALMOST GONE WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS DOWN TO NEAR 5760 METERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM SO MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY BE A DEGREE OR SO
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SW ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL HASTEN THE
COOLING. SHALLOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS FRIDAY MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX TEMPS RETREATING
INTO THE 70S. FOR THIS WEEKEND...CONTINUING SW ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF THE WA COAST SHOULD PRODUCE TYPICAL
SUMMER WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS...SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ON THE COAST AND OVER
PTNS OF SW WA THIS MORNING...THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH
COAST AND PARTLY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE THERE ARE
FAIR SKIES WITH SOME B.C. SMOKE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CASCADES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE MARINE AIR MAINLY STAYING ON THE COAST AND THEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDS IN THE STRAIT AND SPILLING INTO PUGET SOUND FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK.


KSEA...THE MARINE AIR THAT SPILLED INTO PUGET SOUND OVERNIGHT IS
GIVING A SSW BREEZE THAT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN
STRAIT. THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF
THE CASCADES WILL RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRI. THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WLY IN THE STRAIT MAY GET UP TO GALE
FORCE...ESPECIALLY AROUND RACE ROCKS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR      CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE      U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 061617
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
917 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THIS WEEK ALLOWING DAILY TEMPERATURES TO COOL VERY SLOWLY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE JUST W OF THE B.C. COAST THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW ALOFT DOWN
THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER W WA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
HIGH AT CLOSE TO 5850 METERS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY COLLAPSE THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE SLIGHT AIR MASS COOLING ON TUESDAY RESULTING FROM A COUPLE OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF
THE TROUGHS WHICH SHOULD BE OVER THE YUKON THIS MORNING COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE N CASCADES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE COLLAPSING WEDNESDAY...BUT
PROGRESSES E OVER B.C. AND THE PACNW...FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND BRIEF AIR MASS WARMING. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

ONSHORE FLOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE A BIGGER FACTOR THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW LAST NIGHT WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WEAK SW COMPONENT MANAGED TO PUSH A
SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER INLAND OVER THE SW PART OF PUGET SOUND THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT TONIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH
PROGS FROM THE NAM AND ARW MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY GREATER STRATUS
COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP MAKE TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
COOLER...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.

ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND FROM THE NW...SO
STRATUS SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA...MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

THERE IS STILL SMOKE FROM THE B.C. FOREST FIRES OVER THE N HALF OF W
WA THIS MORNING. ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS SLOWLY
THINNING OUT. SW FLOW ALOFT TODAY BELOW 700 MB SHOULD HELP CLEAR THE
LOWER LEVELS...BUT AT ONLY 5-10 KT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. FLOW
ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD BE NW 10-20 KT. NAM MODELS SHOWS THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING E-NE ON TUESDAY...SO DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH SMOKE THE
FIRES PUT OUT TONIGHT ANOTHER INCREASE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
KAM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST HURRAH OF THE RECENT
EXTENDED WARM STRETCH. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALMOST GONE WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS DOWN TO NEAR 5760 METERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM SO MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY BE A DEGREE OR SO
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SW ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL HASTEN THE
COOLING. SHALLOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS FRIDAY MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX TEMPS RETREATING
INTO THE 70S. FOR THIS WEEKEND...CONTINUING SW ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF THE WA COAST SHOULD PRODUCE TYPICAL
SUMMER WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS...SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ON THE COAST AND OVER
PTNS OF SW WA THIS MORNING...THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH
COAST AND PARTLY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE THERE ARE
FAIR SKIES WITH SOME B.C. SMOKE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CASCADES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE MARINE AIR MAINLY STAYING ON THE COAST AND THEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDS IN THE STRAIT AND SPILLING INTO PUGET SOUND FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK.


KSEA...THE MARINE AIR THAT SPILLED INTO PUGET SOUND OVERNIGHT IS
GIVING A SSW BREEZE THAT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN
STRAIT. THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF
THE CASCADES WILL RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRI. THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WLY IN THE STRAIT MAY GET UP TO GALE
FORCE...ESPECIALLY AROUND RACE ROCKS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR      CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE      U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 061617
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
917 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THIS WEEK ALLOWING DAILY TEMPERATURES TO COOL VERY SLOWLY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE JUST W OF THE B.C. COAST THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW ALOFT DOWN
THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER W WA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
HIGH AT CLOSE TO 5850 METERS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY COLLAPSE THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE SLIGHT AIR MASS COOLING ON TUESDAY RESULTING FROM A COUPLE OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF
THE TROUGHS WHICH SHOULD BE OVER THE YUKON THIS MORNING COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE N CASCADES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE COLLAPSING WEDNESDAY...BUT
PROGRESSES E OVER B.C. AND THE PACNW...FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND BRIEF AIR MASS WARMING. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

ONSHORE FLOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE A BIGGER FACTOR THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW LAST NIGHT WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WEAK SW COMPONENT MANAGED TO PUSH A
SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER INLAND OVER THE SW PART OF PUGET SOUND THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT TONIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH
PROGS FROM THE NAM AND ARW MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY GREATER STRATUS
COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP MAKE TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
COOLER...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.

ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND FROM THE NW...SO
STRATUS SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA...MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

THERE IS STILL SMOKE FROM THE B.C. FOREST FIRES OVER THE N HALF OF W
WA THIS MORNING. ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS SLOWLY
THINNING OUT. SW FLOW ALOFT TODAY BELOW 700 MB SHOULD HELP CLEAR THE
LOWER LEVELS...BUT AT ONLY 5-10 KT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. FLOW
ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD BE NW 10-20 KT. NAM MODELS SHOWS THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING E-NE ON TUESDAY...SO DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH SMOKE THE
FIRES PUT OUT TONIGHT ANOTHER INCREASE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
KAM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST HURRAH OF THE RECENT
EXTENDED WARM STRETCH. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALMOST GONE WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS DOWN TO NEAR 5760 METERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM SO MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY BE A DEGREE OR SO
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SW ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL HASTEN THE
COOLING. SHALLOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS FRIDAY MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX TEMPS RETREATING
INTO THE 70S. FOR THIS WEEKEND...CONTINUING SW ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF THE WA COAST SHOULD PRODUCE TYPICAL
SUMMER WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS...SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ON THE COAST AND OVER
PTNS OF SW WA THIS MORNING...THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH
COAST AND PARTLY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE THERE ARE
FAIR SKIES WITH SOME B.C. SMOKE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CASCADES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE MARINE AIR MAINLY STAYING ON THE COAST AND THEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDS IN THE STRAIT AND SPILLING INTO PUGET SOUND FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK.


KSEA...THE MARINE AIR THAT SPILLED INTO PUGET SOUND OVERNIGHT IS
GIVING A SSW BREEZE THAT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN
STRAIT. THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF
THE CASCADES WILL RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRI. THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WLY IN THE STRAIT MAY GET UP TO GALE
FORCE...ESPECIALLY AROUND RACE ROCKS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR      CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE      U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 061617
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
917 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THIS WEEK ALLOWING DAILY TEMPERATURES TO COOL VERY SLOWLY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE JUST W OF THE B.C. COAST THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW ALOFT DOWN
THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER W WA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
HIGH AT CLOSE TO 5850 METERS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY COLLAPSE THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE SLIGHT AIR MASS COOLING ON TUESDAY RESULTING FROM A COUPLE OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF
THE TROUGHS WHICH SHOULD BE OVER THE YUKON THIS MORNING COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE N CASCADES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE COLLAPSING WEDNESDAY...BUT
PROGRESSES E OVER B.C. AND THE PACNW...FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND BRIEF AIR MASS WARMING. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

ONSHORE FLOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE A BIGGER FACTOR THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW LAST NIGHT WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WEAK SW COMPONENT MANAGED TO PUSH A
SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER INLAND OVER THE SW PART OF PUGET SOUND THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT TONIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH
PROGS FROM THE NAM AND ARW MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY GREATER STRATUS
COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP MAKE TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
COOLER...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.

ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND FROM THE NW...SO
STRATUS SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA...MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

THERE IS STILL SMOKE FROM THE B.C. FOREST FIRES OVER THE N HALF OF W
WA THIS MORNING. ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS SLOWLY
THINNING OUT. SW FLOW ALOFT TODAY BELOW 700 MB SHOULD HELP CLEAR THE
LOWER LEVELS...BUT AT ONLY 5-10 KT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. FLOW
ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD BE NW 10-20 KT. NAM MODELS SHOWS THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING E-NE ON TUESDAY...SO DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH SMOKE THE
FIRES PUT OUT TONIGHT ANOTHER INCREASE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
KAM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST HURRAH OF THE RECENT
EXTENDED WARM STRETCH. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALMOST GONE WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS DOWN TO NEAR 5760 METERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM SO MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY BE A DEGREE OR SO
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SW ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL HASTEN THE
COOLING. SHALLOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS FRIDAY MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX TEMPS RETREATING
INTO THE 70S. FOR THIS WEEKEND...CONTINUING SW ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF THE WA COAST SHOULD PRODUCE TYPICAL
SUMMER WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS...SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ON THE COAST AND OVER
PTNS OF SW WA THIS MORNING...THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH
COAST AND PARTLY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE THERE ARE
FAIR SKIES WITH SOME B.C. SMOKE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CASCADES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE MARINE AIR MAINLY STAYING ON THE COAST AND THEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDS IN THE STRAIT AND SPILLING INTO PUGET SOUND FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK.


KSEA...THE MARINE AIR THAT SPILLED INTO PUGET SOUND OVERNIGHT IS
GIVING A SSW BREEZE THAT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN
STRAIT. THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF
THE CASCADES WILL RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRI. THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WLY IN THE STRAIT MAY GET UP TO GALE
FORCE...ESPECIALLY AROUND RACE ROCKS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR      CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE      U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 061140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS: The gusty northeast winds will subside this
morning.  Skies will remain sunny today.  By this evening some mid-
level clouds will move into the area.  Wildfire smoke in the area
could reduce visibilities at times.  RJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 061140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS: The gusty northeast winds will subside this
morning.  Skies will remain sunny today.  By this evening some mid-
level clouds will move into the area.  Wildfire smoke in the area
could reduce visibilities at times.  RJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 061140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS: The gusty northeast winds will subside this
morning.  Skies will remain sunny today.  By this evening some mid-
level clouds will move into the area.  Wildfire smoke in the area
could reduce visibilities at times.  RJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 061140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS: The gusty northeast winds will subside this
morning.  Skies will remain sunny today.  By this evening some mid-
level clouds will move into the area.  Wildfire smoke in the area
could reduce visibilities at times.  RJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 061050
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING
LOOK AWFULLY SIMILAR TO HOW THEY HAVE LOOKED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON REMAINING LOCKED IN A HOT AND
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. A COL PATTERN ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
REGION LATE LAST WEEK...WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST...UPPER
TROUGHS CLIPPING WESTERN CANADA...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND NE PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS TO LOCK ITSELF
IN FOR A WHILE AND THIS HAS BEEN NO EXCEPTION. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER SRN BC/NE WA.

THAT SAID...A DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL PUSHED UP THE COAST
SUNDAY...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER WITH STRATUS TOPS 1500-2000 FT
THIS MORNING. IF MEMORY SERVES ME CORRECT...THIS IS DEEPER THAN THE
MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS. THE STRATUS IS PUSHING WELL
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH A CEILING ALREADY IN
KELSO. THIS IS PROBABLY AN INDICATION THAT ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP KELSO BELOW 90 DEGREES.
THEREFORE WE WILL BE CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA...I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...AND S WA CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.

WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE MID-580S...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO SHALLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS FURTHER
INLAND TODAY/TUE...AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY WEAKEN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WED. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH
WED. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
AS VALLEY HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S THROUGH WED. IF
THIS OCCURS AT PDX...IT WOULD TIE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYS ON RECORD...JUL 25-AUG 3 2009.

ONE CAVEAT IS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY
LOOKS BORDERLINE DUE TO A PROLIFIC W-SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR...
CONTINUING THIS MORNING WITH 10-20 MPH WINDS AT CVO AND EUG. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH TEMPS STICK NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 90
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY UP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS
WARM ENOUGH FOR LOW-MID 90S SHOULD THE ONSHORE FLOW SHUT OFF.

THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY UP THE
OREGON CASCADES TO NEAR MT HOOD. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS THE
AIR MASS ALOFT REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE
EXAGGERATING SFC-BASED CAPE AS USUAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS THAT ARE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH. ALSO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON
LATEST GFS/EC GUIDANCE. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH
TSTM COVERAGE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO HOLDING WITH THE CURRENT FCST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO
THIS HISTORIC HEAT WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US
UNDER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF
ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST
IMPORTANT CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS
UP MIDWEEK AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE
INTERIOR GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO
KKLS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK TO THE BEACHES TODAY...THEN
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS KONP MAY
REMAIN UNDER THE STRATUS OR ONLY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.  INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS
AROUND 1300 FT AT KKLS AS OF 09Z MON MAY EXTEND TO NEAR KSPB
BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH TAF SITES. /MH

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY- WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 061050
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING
LOOK AWFULLY SIMILAR TO HOW THEY HAVE LOOKED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON REMAINING LOCKED IN A HOT AND
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. A COL PATTERN ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
REGION LATE LAST WEEK...WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST...UPPER
TROUGHS CLIPPING WESTERN CANADA...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND NE PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS TO LOCK ITSELF
IN FOR A WHILE AND THIS HAS BEEN NO EXCEPTION. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER SRN BC/NE WA.

THAT SAID...A DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL PUSHED UP THE COAST
SUNDAY...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER WITH STRATUS TOPS 1500-2000 FT
THIS MORNING. IF MEMORY SERVES ME CORRECT...THIS IS DEEPER THAN THE
MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS. THE STRATUS IS PUSHING WELL
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH A CEILING ALREADY IN
KELSO. THIS IS PROBABLY AN INDICATION THAT ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP KELSO BELOW 90 DEGREES.
THEREFORE WE WILL BE CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA...I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...AND S WA CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.

WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE MID-580S...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO SHALLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS FURTHER
INLAND TODAY/TUE...AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY WEAKEN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WED. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH
WED. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
AS VALLEY HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S THROUGH WED. IF
THIS OCCURS AT PDX...IT WOULD TIE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYS ON RECORD...JUL 25-AUG 3 2009.

ONE CAVEAT IS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY
LOOKS BORDERLINE DUE TO A PROLIFIC W-SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR...
CONTINUING THIS MORNING WITH 10-20 MPH WINDS AT CVO AND EUG. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH TEMPS STICK NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 90
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY UP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS
WARM ENOUGH FOR LOW-MID 90S SHOULD THE ONSHORE FLOW SHUT OFF.

THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY UP THE
OREGON CASCADES TO NEAR MT HOOD. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS THE
AIR MASS ALOFT REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE
EXAGGERATING SFC-BASED CAPE AS USUAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS THAT ARE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH. ALSO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON
LATEST GFS/EC GUIDANCE. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH
TSTM COVERAGE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO HOLDING WITH THE CURRENT FCST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO
THIS HISTORIC HEAT WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US
UNDER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF
ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST
IMPORTANT CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS
UP MIDWEEK AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE
INTERIOR GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO
KKLS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK TO THE BEACHES TODAY...THEN
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS KONP MAY
REMAIN UNDER THE STRATUS OR ONLY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.  INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS
AROUND 1300 FT AT KKLS AS OF 09Z MON MAY EXTEND TO NEAR KSPB
BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH TAF SITES. /MH

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY- WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061050
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING
LOOK AWFULLY SIMILAR TO HOW THEY HAVE LOOKED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON REMAINING LOCKED IN A HOT AND
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. A COL PATTERN ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
REGION LATE LAST WEEK...WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST...UPPER
TROUGHS CLIPPING WESTERN CANADA...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND NE PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS TO LOCK ITSELF
IN FOR A WHILE AND THIS HAS BEEN NO EXCEPTION. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER SRN BC/NE WA.

THAT SAID...A DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL PUSHED UP THE COAST
SUNDAY...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER WITH STRATUS TOPS 1500-2000 FT
THIS MORNING. IF MEMORY SERVES ME CORRECT...THIS IS DEEPER THAN THE
MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS. THE STRATUS IS PUSHING WELL
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH A CEILING ALREADY IN
KELSO. THIS IS PROBABLY AN INDICATION THAT ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP KELSO BELOW 90 DEGREES.
THEREFORE WE WILL BE CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA...I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...AND S WA CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.

WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE MID-580S...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO SHALLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS FURTHER
INLAND TODAY/TUE...AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY WEAKEN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WED. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH
WED. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
AS VALLEY HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S THROUGH WED. IF
THIS OCCURS AT PDX...IT WOULD TIE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYS ON RECORD...JUL 25-AUG 3 2009.

ONE CAVEAT IS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY
LOOKS BORDERLINE DUE TO A PROLIFIC W-SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR...
CONTINUING THIS MORNING WITH 10-20 MPH WINDS AT CVO AND EUG. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH TEMPS STICK NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 90
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY UP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS
WARM ENOUGH FOR LOW-MID 90S SHOULD THE ONSHORE FLOW SHUT OFF.

THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY UP THE
OREGON CASCADES TO NEAR MT HOOD. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS THE
AIR MASS ALOFT REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE
EXAGGERATING SFC-BASED CAPE AS USUAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS THAT ARE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH. ALSO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON
LATEST GFS/EC GUIDANCE. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH
TSTM COVERAGE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO HOLDING WITH THE CURRENT FCST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO
THIS HISTORIC HEAT WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US
UNDER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF
ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST
IMPORTANT CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS
UP MIDWEEK AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE
INTERIOR GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO
KKLS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK TO THE BEACHES TODAY...THEN
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS KONP MAY
REMAIN UNDER THE STRATUS OR ONLY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.  INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS
AROUND 1300 FT AT KKLS AS OF 09Z MON MAY EXTEND TO NEAR KSPB
BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH TAF SITES. /MH

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY- WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 061050
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT MON JUL  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING
LOOK AWFULLY SIMILAR TO HOW THEY HAVE LOOKED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON REMAINING LOCKED IN A HOT AND
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. A COL PATTERN ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
REGION LATE LAST WEEK...WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST...UPPER
TROUGHS CLIPPING WESTERN CANADA...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND NE PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS TO LOCK ITSELF
IN FOR A WHILE AND THIS HAS BEEN NO EXCEPTION. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER SRN BC/NE WA.

THAT SAID...A DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL PUSHED UP THE COAST
SUNDAY...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER WITH STRATUS TOPS 1500-2000 FT
THIS MORNING. IF MEMORY SERVES ME CORRECT...THIS IS DEEPER THAN THE
MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS. THE STRATUS IS PUSHING WELL
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH A CEILING ALREADY IN
KELSO. THIS IS PROBABLY AN INDICATION THAT ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP KELSO BELOW 90 DEGREES.
THEREFORE WE WILL BE CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA...I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...AND S WA CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.

WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING IN THE MID-580S...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO SHALLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS FURTHER
INLAND TODAY/TUE...AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY WEAKEN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WED. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR +20 DEG C THROUGH
WED. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
AS VALLEY HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S THROUGH WED. IF
THIS OCCURS AT PDX...IT WOULD TIE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYS ON RECORD...JUL 25-AUG 3 2009.

ONE CAVEAT IS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY
LOOKS BORDERLINE DUE TO A PROLIFIC W-SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR...
CONTINUING THIS MORNING WITH 10-20 MPH WINDS AT CVO AND EUG. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH TEMPS STICK NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 90
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY UP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS
WARM ENOUGH FOR LOW-MID 90S SHOULD THE ONSHORE FLOW SHUT OFF.

THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER IN THE OREGON CASCADES. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY UP THE
OREGON CASCADES TO NEAR MT HOOD. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS THE
AIR MASS ALOFT REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE
EXAGGERATING SFC-BASED CAPE AS USUAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS THAT ARE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH. ALSO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRIGGER ON
LATEST GFS/EC GUIDANCE. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH
TSTM COVERAGE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO HOLDING WITH THE CURRENT FCST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN/EVE THUNDER IN THE LANE CASCADES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FINALLY AN END IS IN SIGHT TO
THIS HISTORIC HEAT WAVE...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT US
UNDER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE KEPT THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...ROBBING ONSHORE FLOW OF
ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MOST
IMPORTANT CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE THE SLOW LOWERING OF OVERALL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NE PACIFIC...AS THE CA CUTOFF LOW OPENS
UP MIDWEEK AND THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER...EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO BECOME DEEPER...THUS BECOMING MORE EFFECTIVE IN COOLING THE
INTERIOR GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.

THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING ONE MORE FAIRLY HOT DAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLING AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER. THU NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE BIG COOLDOWN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN WA AND
ENCOURAGES A STRONG SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR TO PUSH INTO THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND BY THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CAN REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW...AS MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS
ONSHORE AFTER BEING UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. A MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH LEAVES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL RATHER THAN GOING BELOW NORMAL.
THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO
KKLS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK TO THE BEACHES TODAY...THEN
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS KONP MAY
REMAIN UNDER THE STRATUS OR ONLY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.  INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS
AROUND 1300 FT AT KKLS AS OF 09Z MON MAY EXTEND TO NEAR KSPB
BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH TAF SITES. /MH

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE
WATERS...RETURNING SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR
MUCH NEXT WEEK. /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY- WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 061030
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES
INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER TODAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET NOW AND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY
FOR TODAY WILL BE CANCELED.

LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST WILL PROBABLY PUSH A LITTLE PAST SHELTON
INTO THE FAR SOUTH SOUND THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING BACK TO THE
COAST. SMOKE FROM FIRES TO THE NORTH SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TODAY AS WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE WESTERLY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS ADMITTEDLY JUST AN EDUCATED GUESS.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVE REPEAT OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH MORNING CLOUDS AT THE COAST AND PARTIALLY
INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP. A
SHORT WAVE PASSING BY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRIGGER A
FEW AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL WARM HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AGAIN. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST HURRAH OF THE
RECENT EXTENDED WARM STRETCH. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY STRONG FRIDAY WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR
SHOULD COOL ABOUT 10 DEGREES. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST DAY BELOW 80
AT SEATAC IN A COUPLE WEEKS. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY ALSO MAKE IT
INTO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE WEEKS
BEFORE BURNING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
APPEARED TO BE THINNING BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE LAYER
HAS LIFTED AT KCLM AND THE VSBY CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AT KBLI.
ANTICIPATE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS.

MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST.
THE STRATUS AS WELL AS AREAS OF FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR E AS KSHN.
THE CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD REACH THE FAR SRN PUGET SOUND REGION BY
1200 UTC. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY BUT
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LIFR CIGS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETREAT TO
THE COAST BY 2000 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. WINDS WILL BE S OR SW 5-10 KT TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS
MORNING. THE SMOKE WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...N OF THE SAN JUANS.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEATAC IS CURRENTLY ON STREAK OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES. THIS STREAK STARTED ON JULY 1ST AND...WITH A
HIGH OF 91 ON SUNDAY...REACHED FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THIS IS TIED
FOR THE LONGEST EVER STRETCH OF DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90. THE OTHER
TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS IN AUGUST OF 1981.

THE HIGH AT SEATAC TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 88 BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IT COULD REACH 90 AND SET
A NEW RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT 90 OR ABOVE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 061030
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES
INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER TODAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET NOW AND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY
FOR TODAY WILL BE CANCELED.

LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST WILL PROBABLY PUSH A LITTLE PAST SHELTON
INTO THE FAR SOUTH SOUND THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING BACK TO THE
COAST. SMOKE FROM FIRES TO THE NORTH SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TODAY AS WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE WESTERLY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS ADMITTEDLY JUST AN EDUCATED GUESS.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVE REPEAT OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH MORNING CLOUDS AT THE COAST AND PARTIALLY
INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP. A
SHORT WAVE PASSING BY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRIGGER A
FEW AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL WARM HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AGAIN. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST HURRAH OF THE
RECENT EXTENDED WARM STRETCH. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY STRONG FRIDAY WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR
SHOULD COOL ABOUT 10 DEGREES. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST DAY BELOW 80
AT SEATAC IN A COUPLE WEEKS. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY ALSO MAKE IT
INTO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE WEEKS
BEFORE BURNING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
APPEARED TO BE THINNING BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE LAYER
HAS LIFTED AT KCLM AND THE VSBY CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AT KBLI.
ANTICIPATE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS.

MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST.
THE STRATUS AS WELL AS AREAS OF FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR E AS KSHN.
THE CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD REACH THE FAR SRN PUGET SOUND REGION BY
1200 UTC. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY BUT
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LIFR CIGS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETREAT TO
THE COAST BY 2000 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. WINDS WILL BE S OR SW 5-10 KT TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS
MORNING. THE SMOKE WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...N OF THE SAN JUANS.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEATAC IS CURRENTLY ON STREAK OF DAYS WITH A HIGH OF AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES. THIS STREAK STARTED ON JULY 1ST AND...WITH A
HIGH OF 91 ON SUNDAY...REACHED FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THIS IS TIED
FOR THE LONGEST EVER STRETCH OF DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90. THE OTHER
TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS IN AUGUST OF 1981.

THE HIGH AT SEATAC TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 88 BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IT COULD REACH 90 AND SET
A NEW RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT 90 OR ABOVE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY NOT AVAILABLE...AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 060943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 060943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 060943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 060943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 060556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are very slowly diminishing around the region. This trend
will continue overnight. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region overnight keeping skies mostly clear. A few
mid to high level clouds will build over the region tomorrow as
the first very weak shortwave moves approaches from BC toward
the Inland Northwest. Instability and available moisture is
minimal so any showers that may pop up Monday afternoon will be
very isolated and shortlived. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist Tuesday.

Only other weather worth mentioning this evening is increased
smoke from numerious wildfires in BC, Washington, and North Idaho.
A few of the fires showed rapid growth this afternoon so smoke
will likely linger through the week for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 060556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are very slowly diminishing around the region. This trend
will continue overnight. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region overnight keeping skies mostly clear. A few
mid to high level clouds will build over the region tomorrow as
the first very weak shortwave moves approaches from BC toward
the Inland Northwest. Instability and available moisture is
minimal so any showers that may pop up Monday afternoon will be
very isolated and shortlived. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist Tuesday.

Only other weather worth mentioning this evening is increased
smoke from numerious wildfires in BC, Washington, and North Idaho.
A few of the fires showed rapid growth this afternoon so smoke
will likely linger through the week for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are very slowly diminishing around the region. This trend
will continue overnight. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region overnight keeping skies mostly clear. A few
mid to high level clouds will build over the region tomorrow as
the first very weak shortwave moves approaches from BC toward
the Inland Northwest. Instability and available moisture is
minimal so any showers that may pop up Monday afternoon will be
very isolated and shortlived. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist Tuesday.

Only other weather worth mentioning this evening is increased
smoke from numerious wildfires in BC, Washington, and North Idaho.
A few of the fires showed rapid growth this afternoon so smoke
will likely linger through the week for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are very slowly diminishing around the region. This trend
will continue overnight. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region overnight keeping skies mostly clear. A few
mid to high level clouds will build over the region tomorrow as
the first very weak shortwave moves approaches from BC toward
the Inland Northwest. Instability and available moisture is
minimal so any showers that may pop up Monday afternoon will be
very isolated and shortlived. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist Tuesday.

Only other weather worth mentioning this evening is increased
smoke from numerious wildfires in BC, Washington, and North Idaho.
A few of the fires showed rapid growth this afternoon so smoke
will likely linger through the week for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are very slowly diminishing around the region. This trend
will continue overnight. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region overnight keeping skies mostly clear. A few
mid to high level clouds will build over the region tomorrow as
the first very weak shortwave moves approaches from BC toward
the Inland Northwest. Instability and available moisture is
minimal so any showers that may pop up Monday afternoon will be
very isolated and shortlived. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist Tuesday.

Only other weather worth mentioning this evening is increased
smoke from numerious wildfires in BC, Washington, and North Idaho.
A few of the fires showed rapid growth this afternoon so smoke
will likely linger through the week for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are very slowly diminishing around the region. This trend
will continue overnight. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region overnight keeping skies mostly clear. A few
mid to high level clouds will build over the region tomorrow as
the first very weak shortwave moves approaches from BC toward
the Inland Northwest. Instability and available moisture is
minimal so any showers that may pop up Monday afternoon will be
very isolated and shortlived. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist Tuesday.

Only other weather worth mentioning this evening is increased
smoke from numerious wildfires in BC, Washington, and North Idaho.
A few of the fires showed rapid growth this afternoon so smoke
will likely linger through the week for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 060435
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK MARINE PUSH WILL ALLOW SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR
TO FILTER ONTO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND
SOUTH PUGET SOUND MONDAY MORNING. IN THE INTERIOR IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINES WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LARGE WILDFIRES EAST OF WHISTLER AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FRASER VALLEY IS PRODUCING A SMOKE PLUME THAT IS DRIFTING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE SMOKE LAYER IS THICKEST FROM VANCOUVER
ISLAND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT A THIN LAYER
EXTENDS INTO THE ENTIRE AREA. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...THIS SMOKE LAYER
HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN 2-3 DEGREES BELOW WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO LIKELY HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATUERS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO TONIGHT.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE HIGHER THIS EVENING THAN WHAT WE WERE
EXPECTING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. KOTH-KSEA IS OVER 4 MB AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE STRAIT IS OVER 2 MB. THE NAM12 HAS
PICKED UP ON THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON IT AS WELL. THE STRONGER GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW
STRATUS TO FILL IN ALONG THE COAST THEN TO SPREAD INLAND INTO THE
SOUTH PUGET SOUND TO JUST ABOUT SEATAC AIRPORT FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY MORNING. A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR MONDAY
MORNING AND FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT SEATTLE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP WILL BE MADE THIS EVENING.
SEATAC MAY STAY JUST BELOW 90 ON MONDAY...AND IF IT DOES-IT WILL END
THE ALL TIME STREAK OF 90 DEGREES AT THE RECORD TYING 5 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
MONDAY...IT WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY AND A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND URBAN CORRIDOR WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z NAM12 SHOWS A FINGER RIDGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH HEATING OVER THE CASCADES AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO
BE A BIT STRONGER MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
FEW DEGREES COOLING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE CHANGE TO THE TUESDAY FORECAST
AFTER LOOKING AT THE INCOMING GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT IN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMING.  ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST...NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER
FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD START TO FALL OFF
A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK
OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT
WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF WA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY THRU MON MORNING.
THE SMOKE LAYER WAS IN THE 5-7K FT RANGE IN SOME AREAS AND THE
SMOKE HAS ALSO LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 2-4SM RANGE...
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WAS BEING COMPLICATED BY
FOG ON THE N COAST. THE SMOKE WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE FOLLOWING
TAF SITES...KBLI AND KCLM. BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW...THE DENSEST
SMOKE LAYER SHOULD NOT DRIFT MUCH FARTHER S...HOWEVER A THIN SMOKE
LAYER WILL BE PRESENT OVER KPAE...KBFI...AND KSEA.

MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU MON. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG /LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS/ TO GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SRN PUGET SOUND REGION BY
1200 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. ANTICIPATE A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS WILL BECOME SLY OVERNIGHT

&&

.MARINE...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS ZONES...THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH TUE. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY AND HOT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE INTERIOR.
A SHALLOW 1000 FT THICK LAYER OF MARINE AIR IS PUSHING ONTO THE
COAST...INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE NO
EFFECT ON THE WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS TURNING TO LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVING SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE INTRODUCED TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON
TUE AFTN/EVNG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN
HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES
NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST). HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
CAN START FIRES WITH THE HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS.  HANER/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
     UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT
     OF JUAN DE FUCA UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

THE ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE DISCUSSION IS UNAVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 060435
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK MARINE PUSH WILL ALLOW SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR
TO FILTER ONTO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND
SOUTH PUGET SOUND MONDAY MORNING. IN THE INTERIOR IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINES WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LARGE WILDFIRES EAST OF WHISTLER AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FRASER VALLEY IS PRODUCING A SMOKE PLUME THAT IS DRIFTING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE SMOKE LAYER IS THICKEST FROM VANCOUVER
ISLAND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT A THIN LAYER
EXTENDS INTO THE ENTIRE AREA. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...THIS SMOKE LAYER
HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN 2-3 DEGREES BELOW WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO LIKELY HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATUERS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO TONIGHT.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE HIGHER THIS EVENING THAN WHAT WE WERE
EXPECTING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. KOTH-KSEA IS OVER 4 MB AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE STRAIT IS OVER 2 MB. THE NAM12 HAS
PICKED UP ON THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON IT AS WELL. THE STRONGER GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW
STRATUS TO FILL IN ALONG THE COAST THEN TO SPREAD INLAND INTO THE
SOUTH PUGET SOUND TO JUST ABOUT SEATAC AIRPORT FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY MORNING. A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR MONDAY
MORNING AND FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT SEATTLE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP WILL BE MADE THIS EVENING.
SEATAC MAY STAY JUST BELOW 90 ON MONDAY...AND IF IT DOES-IT WILL END
THE ALL TIME STREAK OF 90 DEGREES AT THE RECORD TYING 5 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
MONDAY...IT WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY AND A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND URBAN CORRIDOR WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z NAM12 SHOWS A FINGER RIDGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH HEATING OVER THE CASCADES AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO
BE A BIT STRONGER MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
FEW DEGREES COOLING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE CHANGE TO THE TUESDAY FORECAST
AFTER LOOKING AT THE INCOMING GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT IN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMING.  ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST...NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER
FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD START TO FALL OFF
A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK
OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT
WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF WA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY THRU MON MORNING.
THE SMOKE LAYER WAS IN THE 5-7K FT RANGE IN SOME AREAS AND THE
SMOKE HAS ALSO LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 2-4SM RANGE...
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WAS BEING COMPLICATED BY
FOG ON THE N COAST. THE SMOKE WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE FOLLOWING
TAF SITES...KBLI AND KCLM. BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW...THE DENSEST
SMOKE LAYER SHOULD NOT DRIFT MUCH FARTHER S...HOWEVER A THIN SMOKE
LAYER WILL BE PRESENT OVER KPAE...KBFI...AND KSEA.

MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU MON. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG /LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS/ TO GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SRN PUGET SOUND REGION BY
1200 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. ANTICIPATE A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS WILL BECOME SLY OVERNIGHT

&&

.MARINE...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS ZONES...THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH TUE. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY AND HOT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE INTERIOR.
A SHALLOW 1000 FT THICK LAYER OF MARINE AIR IS PUSHING ONTO THE
COAST...INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE NO
EFFECT ON THE WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS TURNING TO LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVING SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE INTRODUCED TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON
TUE AFTN/EVNG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN
HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES
NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST). HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
CAN START FIRES WITH THE HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS.  HANER/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
     UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT
     OF JUAN DE FUCA UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

THE ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE DISCUSSION IS UNAVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 060435
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK MARINE PUSH WILL ALLOW SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR
TO FILTER ONTO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND
SOUTH PUGET SOUND MONDAY MORNING. IN THE INTERIOR IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINES WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LARGE WILDFIRES EAST OF WHISTLER AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FRASER VALLEY IS PRODUCING A SMOKE PLUME THAT IS DRIFTING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE SMOKE LAYER IS THICKEST FROM VANCOUVER
ISLAND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT A THIN LAYER
EXTENDS INTO THE ENTIRE AREA. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...THIS SMOKE LAYER
HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN 2-3 DEGREES BELOW WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO LIKELY HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATUERS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO TONIGHT.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE HIGHER THIS EVENING THAN WHAT WE WERE
EXPECTING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. KOTH-KSEA IS OVER 4 MB AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE STRAIT IS OVER 2 MB. THE NAM12 HAS
PICKED UP ON THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON IT AS WELL. THE STRONGER GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW
STRATUS TO FILL IN ALONG THE COAST THEN TO SPREAD INLAND INTO THE
SOUTH PUGET SOUND TO JUST ABOUT SEATAC AIRPORT FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY MORNING. A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR MONDAY
MORNING AND FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT SEATTLE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP WILL BE MADE THIS EVENING.
SEATAC MAY STAY JUST BELOW 90 ON MONDAY...AND IF IT DOES-IT WILL END
THE ALL TIME STREAK OF 90 DEGREES AT THE RECORD TYING 5 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
MONDAY...IT WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY AND A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND URBAN CORRIDOR WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z NAM12 SHOWS A FINGER RIDGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH HEATING OVER THE CASCADES AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO
BE A BIT STRONGER MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
FEW DEGREES COOLING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE CHANGE TO THE TUESDAY FORECAST
AFTER LOOKING AT THE INCOMING GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT IN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMING.  ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST...NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER
FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD START TO FALL OFF
A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK
OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT
WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF WA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY THRU MON MORNING.
THE SMOKE LAYER WAS IN THE 5-7K FT RANGE IN SOME AREAS AND THE
SMOKE HAS ALSO LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 2-4SM RANGE...
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WAS BEING COMPLICATED BY
FOG ON THE N COAST. THE SMOKE WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE FOLLOWING
TAF SITES...KBLI AND KCLM. BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW...THE DENSEST
SMOKE LAYER SHOULD NOT DRIFT MUCH FARTHER S...HOWEVER A THIN SMOKE
LAYER WILL BE PRESENT OVER KPAE...KBFI...AND KSEA.

MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU MON. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG /LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS/ TO GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SRN PUGET SOUND REGION BY
1200 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. ANTICIPATE A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS WILL BECOME SLY OVERNIGHT

&&

.MARINE...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS ZONES...THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH TUE. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY AND HOT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE INTERIOR.
A SHALLOW 1000 FT THICK LAYER OF MARINE AIR IS PUSHING ONTO THE
COAST...INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE NO
EFFECT ON THE WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS TURNING TO LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVING SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE INTRODUCED TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON
TUE AFTN/EVNG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN
HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES
NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST). HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
CAN START FIRES WITH THE HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS.  HANER/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
     UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT
     OF JUAN DE FUCA UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

THE ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE DISCUSSION IS UNAVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 060435
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK MARINE PUSH WILL ALLOW SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR
TO FILTER ONTO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND
SOUTH PUGET SOUND MONDAY MORNING. IN THE INTERIOR IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINES WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LARGE WILDFIRES EAST OF WHISTLER AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FRASER VALLEY IS PRODUCING A SMOKE PLUME THAT IS DRIFTING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE SMOKE LAYER IS THICKEST FROM VANCOUVER
ISLAND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA...BUT A THIN LAYER
EXTENDS INTO THE ENTIRE AREA. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...THIS SMOKE LAYER
HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN 2-3 DEGREES BELOW WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO LIKELY HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATUERS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO TONIGHT.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE HIGHER THIS EVENING THAN WHAT WE WERE
EXPECTING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. KOTH-KSEA IS OVER 4 MB AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE STRAIT IS OVER 2 MB. THE NAM12 HAS
PICKED UP ON THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON IT AS WELL. THE STRONGER GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW
STRATUS TO FILL IN ALONG THE COAST THEN TO SPREAD INLAND INTO THE
SOUTH PUGET SOUND TO JUST ABOUT SEATAC AIRPORT FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY MORNING. A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR MONDAY
MORNING AND FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT SEATTLE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP WILL BE MADE THIS EVENING.
SEATAC MAY STAY JUST BELOW 90 ON MONDAY...AND IF IT DOES-IT WILL END
THE ALL TIME STREAK OF 90 DEGREES AT THE RECORD TYING 5 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
MONDAY...IT WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY AND A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND URBAN CORRIDOR WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z NAM12 SHOWS A FINGER RIDGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH HEATING OVER THE CASCADES AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO
BE A BIT STRONGER MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
FEW DEGREES COOLING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE CHANGE TO THE TUESDAY FORECAST
AFTER LOOKING AT THE INCOMING GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT IN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMING.  ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST...NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER
FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD START TO FALL OFF
A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK
OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT
WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF WA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY THRU MON MORNING.
THE SMOKE LAYER WAS IN THE 5-7K FT RANGE IN SOME AREAS AND THE
SMOKE HAS ALSO LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 2-4SM RANGE...
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WAS BEING COMPLICATED BY
FOG ON THE N COAST. THE SMOKE WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE FOLLOWING
TAF SITES...KBLI AND KCLM. BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW...THE DENSEST
SMOKE LAYER SHOULD NOT DRIFT MUCH FARTHER S...HOWEVER A THIN SMOKE
LAYER WILL BE PRESENT OVER KPAE...KBFI...AND KSEA.

MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU MON. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG /LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS/ TO GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SRN PUGET SOUND REGION BY
1200 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. ANTICIPATE A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS WILL BECOME SLY OVERNIGHT

&&

.MARINE...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS ZONES...THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH TUE. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY AND HOT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE INTERIOR.
A SHALLOW 1000 FT THICK LAYER OF MARINE AIR IS PUSHING ONTO THE
COAST...INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE NO
EFFECT ON THE WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS TURNING TO LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVING SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE INTRODUCED TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON
TUE AFTN/EVNG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN
HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES
NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST). HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
CAN START FIRES WITH THE HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS.  HANER/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
     UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT
     OF JUAN DE FUCA UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

THE ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE DISCUSSION IS UNAVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 060402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FAR
FROM THOSE SATURDAY...AND RECORDS AT PORTLAND AIRPORT...VANCOUVER AND
TROUTDALE. EUGENE HAD EASED A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND WERE SIMILAR
TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND LOW STRATUS SURGE OCCURRED
ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND DROPPED TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES. CLOUDS
BACKED A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT ARE ALREADY FILLING IN. THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN FILL IN RAPIDLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA...
SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WEAK
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. EXPECT A FAIRLY STATUS
QUO DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE
LOW CLOUDS INTO KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER MONDAY MORNING...AND
PERHAPS A FEW LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO GET CLOSE TO EUGENE. EXPECT
INLAND TEMPS SIMILAR ON MONDAY TO THOSE TODAY...AT OR AT MOST DOWN
ONE OR TWO DEGREES. ALSO...THE SOUTH VALLEY WILL TEND TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN NEAR PORTLAND. THIS PATTERN OF TEMPS AND CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP CHANGE
YET.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...
THE MODELS HAVE TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THEIR THUNDERSTORMS
COVERAGE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO THAT IS NOT CERTAIN.

THE LOW OFF CALIFORNIA IS TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY CONTINUE THE TREND OF A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...AND MIGHT EASE INLAND TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF MORE
DEGREES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RELIEF UNTIL POSSIBLY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STILL...THE UPPER RIDGE DOES WEAKEN A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MAY PULL THE THUNDERSTORM MOISTURE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LET THE CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES RIDE.

NO CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
INLAND. COOLER MARINE AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH MARINE AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS STRATUS MAY MOVE UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER REACHING KKLS EARLY MONDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
SEEP INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT DO
NOT THINK THEY WILL MAKE IT TO KEUG. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SW-W WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE STRATUS BACK TO THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
IN THE EVENING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WATERS IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN MONDAY
NIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE WATERS... RETURNING
SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LOWER FOR MUCH NEXT WEEK. TJ/PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 060402
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 PM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS WEEK TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY. RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES NOT FAR
FROM THOSE SATURDAY...AND RECORDS AT PORTLAND AIRPORT...VANCOUVER AND
TROUTDALE. EUGENE HAD EASED A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND WERE SIMILAR
TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND LOW STRATUS SURGE OCCURRED
ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND DROPPED TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES. CLOUDS
BACKED A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT ARE ALREADY FILLING IN. THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN FILL IN RAPIDLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA...
SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WEAK
SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. EXPECT A FAIRLY STATUS
QUO DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE
LOW CLOUDS INTO KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER MONDAY MORNING...AND
PERHAPS A FEW LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO GET CLOSE TO EUGENE. EXPECT
INLAND TEMPS SIMILAR ON MONDAY TO THOSE TODAY...AT OR AT MOST DOWN
ONE OR TWO DEGREES. ALSO...THE SOUTH VALLEY WILL TEND TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN NEAR PORTLAND. THIS PATTERN OF TEMPS AND CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP CHANGE
YET.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...
THE MODELS HAVE TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THEIR THUNDERSTORMS
COVERAGE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO THAT IS NOT CERTAIN.

THE LOW OFF CALIFORNIA IS TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY CONTINUE THE TREND OF A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...AND MIGHT EASE INLAND TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF MORE
DEGREES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RELIEF UNTIL POSSIBLY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STILL...THE UPPER RIDGE DOES WEAKEN A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MAY PULL THE THUNDERSTORM MOISTURE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LET THE CONTINUING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES RIDE.

NO CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
INLAND. COOLER MARINE AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH MARINE AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS STRATUS MAY MOVE UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER REACHING KKLS EARLY MONDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
SEEP INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...BUT DO
NOT THINK THEY WILL MAKE IT TO KEUG. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SW-W WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE STRATUS BACK TO THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
IN THE EVENING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER LANE COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WATERS IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN MONDAY
NIGHT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE WATERS... RETURNING
SEASONAL NW WINDS.

SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE ANOTHER FOOT OR SO TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR
LOWER FOR MUCH NEXT WEEK. TJ/PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     6 AM TO 10 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 060235 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
735 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES
INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SMOKE LAYER FROM THE B.C. FIRES WORKED SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE STRAIT AND INTO THE OLYMPICS.  WHATCOM
COUNTY HAD SOME HOT BREEZY WEATHER TODAY BUT THE NE WIND DOWN THE
FRASER GAVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE BLI-YQL GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THERE IS A HEAT
ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE SEA-TAC METRO AREA. THAT SAID...THE
OTH-SEA GRADIENT AT 3PM IS UP TO +3.7MB AND IF THE MARINE AIR ON THE
COAST DEEPENS OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
FORECAST. DAY TO DAY VARIATION OF THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER IS PRETTY
TRICKY TO GUESS EXCEPT TO SAY THAT THE COAST WILL HAVE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH COOL TEMPS ALONG THE
BEACHES...AND WARM WEATHER FURTHER INLAND WITH 850MB LEVEL TEMPS
ALOFT OVER SEATTLE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 20C.

.LONG TERM...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD
AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
SHOULD START TO FALL OFF A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE
INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION... SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS
BLANKETED THE NW PORTION OF WA. SOME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA
AND WRN WA WERE REPORTING THE SMOKE LAYER DOWN TO 6-7K FT. VSBYS
HAVE ALSO BEEN REDUCED TO 3SM IN SOME PLACES. THE SMOKE WAS
IMPACTING THE FOLLOWING TAFS...KBLI AND KCLM. BASED ON THE STEERING
FLOW...THE DENSEST SMOKE LAYER SHOULD NOT DRIFT MUCH FARTHER S...
HOWEVER A THIN SMOKE LAYER WILL BE VISIBLE AT KPAE...KBFI...AND
KSEA.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER WESTERN WA. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. THERE IS STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THAT WILL PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH SOUND
EARLY MON MORNING. 33/05

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. N WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 10 KT THIS
EVENING...FLIPPING TO LIGHT S/SW BY 12Z MON. 33

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE WA COAST
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON MONDAY FOR A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES
DEVEOPS OVER THE NE PAC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WIND AND HUMIDTY COMBINATIONS CONTINUE AT
ELLIS MTN OVER THE NW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AS OF 3 PM. KBLI-CYWL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE WEAKENING...SO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
EARLY IN TWO FIRE WEATHER ZONES...AND WILL LET THE OTHER TWO ZONES
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 PM.

OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS NOW TURNING TO LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING
SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. INTRODUCING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF
LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH
CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST).
HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING CAN START FIRES WITH THE
HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
     UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 656 UNTIL 5 PM.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

THE ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE DISCUSSION IS UNAVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 060235 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
735 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES
INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SMOKE LAYER FROM THE B.C. FIRES WORKED SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE STRAIT AND INTO THE OLYMPICS.  WHATCOM
COUNTY HAD SOME HOT BREEZY WEATHER TODAY BUT THE NE WIND DOWN THE
FRASER GAVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE BLI-YQL GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THERE IS A HEAT
ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE SEA-TAC METRO AREA. THAT SAID...THE
OTH-SEA GRADIENT AT 3PM IS UP TO +3.7MB AND IF THE MARINE AIR ON THE
COAST DEEPENS OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
FORECAST. DAY TO DAY VARIATION OF THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER IS PRETTY
TRICKY TO GUESS EXCEPT TO SAY THAT THE COAST WILL HAVE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH COOL TEMPS ALONG THE
BEACHES...AND WARM WEATHER FURTHER INLAND WITH 850MB LEVEL TEMPS
ALOFT OVER SEATTLE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 20C.

.LONG TERM...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD
AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
SHOULD START TO FALL OFF A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE
INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION... SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS
BLANKETED THE NW PORTION OF WA. SOME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA
AND WRN WA WERE REPORTING THE SMOKE LAYER DOWN TO 6-7K FT. VSBYS
HAVE ALSO BEEN REDUCED TO 3SM IN SOME PLACES. THE SMOKE WAS
IMPACTING THE FOLLOWING TAFS...KBLI AND KCLM. BASED ON THE STEERING
FLOW...THE DENSEST SMOKE LAYER SHOULD NOT DRIFT MUCH FARTHER S...
HOWEVER A THIN SMOKE LAYER WILL BE VISIBLE AT KPAE...KBFI...AND
KSEA.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER WESTERN WA. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. THERE IS STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THAT WILL PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH SOUND
EARLY MON MORNING. 33/05

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. N WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 10 KT THIS
EVENING...FLIPPING TO LIGHT S/SW BY 12Z MON. 33

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE WA COAST
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON MONDAY FOR A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES
DEVEOPS OVER THE NE PAC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WIND AND HUMIDTY COMBINATIONS CONTINUE AT
ELLIS MTN OVER THE NW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AS OF 3 PM. KBLI-CYWL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE WEAKENING...SO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
EARLY IN TWO FIRE WEATHER ZONES...AND WILL LET THE OTHER TWO ZONES
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 PM.

OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS NOW TURNING TO LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING
SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. INTRODUCING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF
LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH
CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST).
HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING CAN START FIRES WITH THE
HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
     UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 656 UNTIL 5 PM.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

THE ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE DISCUSSION IS UNAVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 052216 CCA
AFDSEW

ZCZC SEAWRKAFD 052133
TTAA00 KSEA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES
INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SMOKE LAYER FROM THE B.C. FIRES WORKED SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE STRAIT AND INTO THE OLYMPICS.  WHATCOM
COUNTY HAD SOME HOT BREEZY WEATHER TODAY BUT THE NE WIND DOWN THE
FRASER GAVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE BLI-YQL GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THERE IS A HEAT
ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE SEA-TAC METRO AREA. THAT SAID...THE
OTH-SEA GRADIENT AT 3PM IS UP TO +3.7MB AND IF THE MARINE AIR ON THE
COAST DEEPENS OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
FORECAST. DAY TO DAY VARIATION OF THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER IS PRETTY
TRICKY TO GUESS EXCEPT TO SAY THAT THE COAST WILL HAVE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH COOL TEMPS ALONG THE
BEACHES...AND WARM WEATHER FURTHER INLAND WITH 850MB LEVEL TEMPS
ALOFT OVER SEATTLE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 20C.

.LONG TERM...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD
AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
SHOULD START TO FALL OFF A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE
INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT
WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. THERE IS
STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL PUSH INLAND
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH SOUND EARLY MON MORNING.
AREAS OF SMOKE FROM B.C. FIRES MAY AFFECT KCLM. OTHWERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN BACK TO THE COAST EARLY
MON AFTERNOON FOR CLEAR SKIES. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. N WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 10 KT THIS
EVENING...FLIPPING TO LIGHT S/SW BY 12Z MON. 33

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE WA COAST
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON MONDAY FOR A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES
DEVEOPS OVER THE NE PAC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WIND AND HUMIDTY COMBINATIONS CONTINUE AT
ELLIS MTN OVER THE NW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AS OF 3 PM. KBLI-CYWL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE WEAKENING...SO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
EARLY IN TWO FIRE WEATHER ZONES...AND WILL LET THE OTHER TWO ZONES
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 PM.

OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS NOW TURNING TO LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING
SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. INTRODUCING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF
LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH
CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST).
HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING CAN START FIRES WITH THE
HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 656 UNTIL 5 PM.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY UNAVAILABLE...AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 052216 CCA
AFDSEW

ZCZC SEAWRKAFD 052133
TTAA00 KSEA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES
INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SMOKE LAYER FROM THE B.C. FIRES WORKED SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE STRAIT AND INTO THE OLYMPICS.  WHATCOM
COUNTY HAD SOME HOT BREEZY WEATHER TODAY BUT THE NE WIND DOWN THE
FRASER GAVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE BLI-YQL GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THERE IS A HEAT
ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE SEA-TAC METRO AREA. THAT SAID...THE
OTH-SEA GRADIENT AT 3PM IS UP TO +3.7MB AND IF THE MARINE AIR ON THE
COAST DEEPENS OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
FORECAST. DAY TO DAY VARIATION OF THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER IS PRETTY
TRICKY TO GUESS EXCEPT TO SAY THAT THE COAST WILL HAVE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH COOL TEMPS ALONG THE
BEACHES...AND WARM WEATHER FURTHER INLAND WITH 850MB LEVEL TEMPS
ALOFT OVER SEATTLE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 20C.

.LONG TERM...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD
AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
SHOULD START TO FALL OFF A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE
INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT
WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. THERE IS
STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL PUSH INLAND
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH SOUND EARLY MON MORNING.
AREAS OF SMOKE FROM B.C. FIRES MAY AFFECT KCLM. OTHWERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN BACK TO THE COAST EARLY
MON AFTERNOON FOR CLEAR SKIES. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. N WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 10 KT THIS
EVENING...FLIPPING TO LIGHT S/SW BY 12Z MON. 33

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE WA COAST
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON MONDAY FOR A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES
DEVEOPS OVER THE NE PAC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WIND AND HUMIDTY COMBINATIONS CONTINUE AT
ELLIS MTN OVER THE NW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AS OF 3 PM. KBLI-CYWL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE WEAKENING...SO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
EARLY IN TWO FIRE WEATHER ZONES...AND WILL LET THE OTHER TWO ZONES
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 PM.

OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS NOW TURNING TO LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING
SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. INTRODUCING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF
LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH
CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST).
HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING CAN START FIRES WITH THE
HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 656 UNTIL 5 PM.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

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YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 052216 CCA
AFDSEW

ZCZC SEAWRKAFD 052133
TTAA00 KSEA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES
INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SMOKE LAYER FROM THE B.C. FIRES WORKED SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE STRAIT AND INTO THE OLYMPICS.  WHATCOM
COUNTY HAD SOME HOT BREEZY WEATHER TODAY BUT THE NE WIND DOWN THE
FRASER GAVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE BLI-YQL GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THERE IS A HEAT
ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE SEA-TAC METRO AREA. THAT SAID...THE
OTH-SEA GRADIENT AT 3PM IS UP TO +3.7MB AND IF THE MARINE AIR ON THE
COAST DEEPENS OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
FORECAST. DAY TO DAY VARIATION OF THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER IS PRETTY
TRICKY TO GUESS EXCEPT TO SAY THAT THE COAST WILL HAVE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH COOL TEMPS ALONG THE
BEACHES...AND WARM WEATHER FURTHER INLAND WITH 850MB LEVEL TEMPS
ALOFT OVER SEATTLE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 20C.

.LONG TERM...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD
AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
SHOULD START TO FALL OFF A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE
INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT
WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. THERE IS
STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL PUSH INLAND
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH SOUND EARLY MON MORNING.
AREAS OF SMOKE FROM B.C. FIRES MAY AFFECT KCLM. OTHWERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN BACK TO THE COAST EARLY
MON AFTERNOON FOR CLEAR SKIES. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. N WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 10 KT THIS
EVENING...FLIPPING TO LIGHT S/SW BY 12Z MON. 33

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE WA COAST
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON MONDAY FOR A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES
DEVEOPS OVER THE NE PAC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WIND AND HUMIDTY COMBINATIONS CONTINUE AT
ELLIS MTN OVER THE NW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AS OF 3 PM. KBLI-CYWL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE WEAKENING...SO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
EARLY IN TWO FIRE WEATHER ZONES...AND WILL LET THE OTHER TWO ZONES
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 PM.

OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS NOW TURNING TO LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING
SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. INTRODUCING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF
LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH
CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST).
HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING CAN START FIRES WITH THE
HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 656 UNTIL 5 PM.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 052209
AFDSEW

ZCZC SEAWRKAFD 052133
TTAA00 KSEA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
305 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES
INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SMOKE LAYER FROM THE B.C. FIRES WORKED SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE STRAIT AND INTO THE OLYMPICS.  WHATCOM
COUNTY HAD SOME HOT BREEZY WEATHER TODAY BUT THE NE WIND DOWN THE
FRASER GAVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE BLI-YQL GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THERE IS A HEAT
ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE SEA-TAC METRO AREA. THAT SAID...THE
OTH-SEA GRADIENT AT 3PM IS UP TO X.XMB AND IF THE MARINE AIR ON THE
COAST DEEPENS OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
FORECAST. DAY TO DAY VARIATION OF THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER IS PRETTY
TRICKY TO GUESS EXCEPT TO SAY THAT THE COAST WILL HAVE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH COOL TEMPS ALONG THE
BEACHES...AND WARM WEATHER FURTHER INLAND WITH 850MB LEVEL TEMPS
ALOFT OVER SEATTLE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 20C.

.LONG TERM...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD
AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
SHOULD START TO FALL OFF A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE
INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT
WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. THERE IS
STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL PUSH INLAND
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH SOUND EARLY MON MORNING.
AREAS OF SMOKE FROM B.C. FIRES MAY AFFECT KCLM. OTHWERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN BACK TO THE COAST EARLY
MON AFTERNOON FOR CLEAR SKIES. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. N WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 10 KT THIS
EVENING...FLIPPING TO LIGHT S/SW BY 12Z MON. 33

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE WA COAST
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON MONDAY FOR A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES
DEVEOPS OVER THE NE PAC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WIND AND HUMIDTY COMBINATIONS CONTINUE AT
ELLIS MTN OVER THE NW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AS OF 3 PM. KBLI-CYWL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE WEAKENING...SO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
EARLY IN TWO FIRE WEATHER ZONES...AND WILL LET THE OTHER TWO ZONES
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 PM.

OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS NOW TURNING TO LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING
SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. INTRODUCING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF
LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH
CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST).
HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING CAN START FIRES WITH THE
HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 656 UNTIL 5 PM.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY UNAVAILABLE...AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 052209
AFDSEW

ZCZC SEAWRKAFD 052133
TTAA00 KSEA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
305 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES
INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SMOKE LAYER FROM THE B.C. FIRES WORKED SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE STRAIT AND INTO THE OLYMPICS.  WHATCOM
COUNTY HAD SOME HOT BREEZY WEATHER TODAY BUT THE NE WIND DOWN THE
FRASER GAVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE BLI-YQL GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THERE IS A HEAT
ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE SEA-TAC METRO AREA. THAT SAID...THE
OTH-SEA GRADIENT AT 3PM IS UP TO X.XMB AND IF THE MARINE AIR ON THE
COAST DEEPENS OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
FORECAST. DAY TO DAY VARIATION OF THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER IS PRETTY
TRICKY TO GUESS EXCEPT TO SAY THAT THE COAST WILL HAVE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH COOL TEMPS ALONG THE
BEACHES...AND WARM WEATHER FURTHER INLAND WITH 850MB LEVEL TEMPS
ALOFT OVER SEATTLE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 20C.

.LONG TERM...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY TREND TOWARD
AN ALL DAY MARINE LAYER FOR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
SHOULD START TO FALL OFF A BIT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA ON
THURSDAY AND THEN DRAMATIC COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP MARINE PUSH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE AREA AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF NRN CALIF AND ACROSS THE
INLAND PORTION OF THE PACNW...THAT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW INTO WRN WA AND THE AIR ALOFT WILL COOL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT
WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. THERE IS
STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL PUSH INLAND
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH SOUND EARLY MON MORNING.
AREAS OF SMOKE FROM B.C. FIRES MAY AFFECT KCLM. OTHWERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN BACK TO THE COAST EARLY
MON AFTERNOON FOR CLEAR SKIES. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. N WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 10 KT THIS
EVENING...FLIPPING TO LIGHT S/SW BY 12Z MON. 33

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE WA COAST
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON MONDAY FOR A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES
DEVEOPS OVER THE NE PAC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WIND AND HUMIDTY COMBINATIONS CONTINUE AT
ELLIS MTN OVER THE NW OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AS OF 3 PM. KBLI-CYWL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE WEAKENING...SO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
EARLY IN TWO FIRE WEATHER ZONES...AND WILL LET THE OTHER TWO ZONES
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 PM.

OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS NOW TURNING TO LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING
SE THROUGH B.C. TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. INTRODUCING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH CASCADES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE...IF
LATER FORECASTS INCREASE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...THEN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 658 (NORTH
CASCADES) AND 662 (NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK EAST OF THE CREST).
HOWEVER...EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING CAN START FIRES WITH THE
HISTORICALLY DRY FUELS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 656 UNTIL 5 PM.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY UNAVAILABLE...AT
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000
FXUS66 KOTX 052153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: The Inland NW will be in a
more progressive northwest flow, with the next chance of showers
and thunderstorms arriving around Tuesday. But first tonight into
Monday a shortwave trough near the central Panhandle pulls east
into Montana and subtle shortwave ridging moves into the region.
With drier air and a stabilizing atmosphere, look for an end to
the lingering shower threat over far southeast Shoshone county and
mostly clear skies until Monday afternoon. The sky, however, will
still be milky white from the smoke from the variety of wildfires
from Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. By Monday afternoon daytime
heating and the leading edge of the next system will bring a few
more clouds in from the north. As for winds, the gradients slowly
slacken tonight into Monday. This will lead to a gradual decrease
in winds, with the most notable decrease Monday afternoon when the
thermal trough reorganizes over the western Columbia Basin.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the next system drops in
from the BC. It is not as sharp or fast as the most recent system,
but it encounters some broader and better instability and so
carries a broader shower and thunderstorm threat. First on Monday
night a weak shortwave/jet streak skims by the northeast. With
some pockets of elevated instability there could be a few
shower/t-storms around the northeast mountains of WA and north ID,
but overall look for some increased clouds and dry weather. Going
into Tuesday the main trough axis pivots into northeast WA and
north ID. There is deeper moisture, especially across northeast WA
and north ID, and expanding SBCAPE (around 200 to 700 J/kg, with
potential pockets around 1000 J/kg or so) especially across the
Cascade crest and the northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains. So
look for an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms through
the afternoon, with the best threat toward from Stevens County to
Boundary/Bonner and eastern Shoshone county where the lift is
best. Smaller chances will be found across the Okanogan Highlands
and from northern Spokane county through the higher Palouse. We
will have to think about potential abundant lightning and fire
weather concerns, especially around the northern mountains and
potentially the Cascades depending on the amount of lift.

From Tuesday night into Wednesday the shortwave begins to drop
south and shortwave ridging, broader subsidence and drier air
comes in from the north. This will allow for the threat of
precipitation to gradually shift to just southeast WA and the
central Panhandle and wane. This will leave the remainder of the
CWA dry with decreasing clouds. /J. Cote`

Thursday through Sunday..Confidence is growing that the unprecedented
heat of late will finally ease as the deep upper level low west
of the Bay area gets slowly nudged toward the Inland Northwest.
The trigger to cause this ejection will be the approach of a
stronger upper level trough expected to move into the NE Pacific.
There are questions as to how quickly the low will surge north and
what impacts it will have. For Thursday there is good model
agreement that the low will move into central California which
will begin to shunt some monsoonal moisture northward toward our
forecast area. If it makes it this far it would likely only result
in a small chance of thunderstorms over the extreme SE corner of
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. By Friday this threat
will spread even farther north as the offshore trough moves closer
to the coast. This could impact most of the Panhandle and far
northern portions of Washington with a small threat of
thunderstorms. At least this is what the ECMWF model is
suggesting. Meanwhile the Canadian and GFS models keep the threat
confined to SE Washington and the southern Panhandle. We suspect
that by Saturday we should see the most widespread thunderstorm
threat as the offshore trough pushes a weak upper level
disturbance through southern British Columbia while the
aforementioned upper level low weakens considerably somewhere over
SE Washington or NE Oregon. Based on moisture availability and
potential instability the best chances for thunderstorms will
occur over the Panhandle and extreme eastern Washington. There
would also be a threat near the Cascades. This is no sure bet
through as the Canadian model shows that both of the upper level
features will wash out before arriving in the Inland NW. On Sunday
the models all show an amplification of the trough off the coast
with more consolidated southerly flow impacting the entire
forecast area. Whether or not this brings widespread thunderstorms
is questionable. The ECMWF would say yes while the Canadian and
GFS say perhaps not.

While the specific question of where and when thunderstorms could
occur is tough to answer at this time, our confidence is better
that the temperatures will be coming down. Thursday and Friday
still look unseasonably warm with widespread highs in the 90s to
lower 100s. Saturday and Sunday should deliver some cooling
although not dramatic. Highs will remain in the mid 80s and 90s
but the relative humidity levels will begin to creep upward which
is somewhat better news for dry fuel conditions. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A shortwave drops by the central Panhandle, with few
clouds. But TAF sites will be VFR and dry. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty through this afternoon away from the sheltered
locations. Expect 10 to 20 mph, with local gusts to 30 mph. These
should subside between 22 to 04Z. Location such as LWS/EAT/PUW,
however, will be more sheltered and should experience lighter
winds. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from regional
wildfires. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /  10   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /  10   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 052153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: The Inland NW will be in a
more progressive northwest flow, with the next chance of showers
and thunderstorms arriving around Tuesday. But first tonight into
Monday a shortwave trough near the central Panhandle pulls east
into Montana and subtle shortwave ridging moves into the region.
With drier air and a stabilizing atmosphere, look for an end to
the lingering shower threat over far southeast Shoshone county and
mostly clear skies until Monday afternoon. The sky, however, will
still be milky white from the smoke from the variety of wildfires
from Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. By Monday afternoon daytime
heating and the leading edge of the next system will bring a few
more clouds in from the north. As for winds, the gradients slowly
slacken tonight into Monday. This will lead to a gradual decrease
in winds, with the most notable decrease Monday afternoon when the
thermal trough reorganizes over the western Columbia Basin.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the next system drops in
from the BC. It is not as sharp or fast as the most recent system,
but it encounters some broader and better instability and so
carries a broader shower and thunderstorm threat. First on Monday
night a weak shortwave/jet streak skims by the northeast. With
some pockets of elevated instability there could be a few
shower/t-storms around the northeast mountains of WA and north ID,
but overall look for some increased clouds and dry weather. Going
into Tuesday the main trough axis pivots into northeast WA and
north ID. There is deeper moisture, especially across northeast WA
and north ID, and expanding SBCAPE (around 200 to 700 J/kg, with
potential pockets around 1000 J/kg or so) especially across the
Cascade crest and the northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains. So
look for an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms through
the afternoon, with the best threat toward from Stevens County to
Boundary/Bonner and eastern Shoshone county where the lift is
best. Smaller chances will be found across the Okanogan Highlands
and from northern Spokane county through the higher Palouse. We
will have to think about potential abundant lightning and fire
weather concerns, especially around the northern mountains and
potentially the Cascades depending on the amount of lift.

From Tuesday night into Wednesday the shortwave begins to drop
south and shortwave ridging, broader subsidence and drier air
comes in from the north. This will allow for the threat of
precipitation to gradually shift to just southeast WA and the
central Panhandle and wane. This will leave the remainder of the
CWA dry with decreasing clouds. /J. Cote`

Thursday through Sunday..Confidence is growing that the unprecedented
heat of late will finally ease as the deep upper level low west
of the Bay area gets slowly nudged toward the Inland Northwest.
The trigger to cause this ejection will be the approach of a
stronger upper level trough expected to move into the NE Pacific.
There are questions as to how quickly the low will surge north and
what impacts it will have. For Thursday there is good model
agreement that the low will move into central California which
will begin to shunt some monsoonal moisture northward toward our
forecast area. If it makes it this far it would likely only result
in a small chance of thunderstorms over the extreme SE corner of
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. By Friday this threat
will spread even farther north as the offshore trough moves closer
to the coast. This could impact most of the Panhandle and far
northern portions of Washington with a small threat of
thunderstorms. At least this is what the ECMWF model is
suggesting. Meanwhile the Canadian and GFS models keep the threat
confined to SE Washington and the southern Panhandle. We suspect
that by Saturday we should see the most widespread thunderstorm
threat as the offshore trough pushes a weak upper level
disturbance through southern British Columbia while the
aforementioned upper level low weakens considerably somewhere over
SE Washington or NE Oregon. Based on moisture availability and
potential instability the best chances for thunderstorms will
occur over the Panhandle and extreme eastern Washington. There
would also be a threat near the Cascades. This is no sure bet
through as the Canadian model shows that both of the upper level
features will wash out before arriving in the Inland NW. On Sunday
the models all show an amplification of the trough off the coast
with more consolidated southerly flow impacting the entire
forecast area. Whether or not this brings widespread thunderstorms
is questionable. The ECMWF would say yes while the Canadian and
GFS say perhaps not.

While the specific question of where and when thunderstorms could
occur is tough to answer at this time, our confidence is better
that the temperatures will be coming down. Thursday and Friday
still look unseasonably warm with widespread highs in the 90s to
lower 100s. Saturday and Sunday should deliver some cooling
although not dramatic. Highs will remain in the mid 80s and 90s
but the relative humidity levels will begin to creep upward which
is somewhat better news for dry fuel conditions. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A shortwave drops by the central Panhandle, with few
clouds. But TAF sites will be VFR and dry. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty through this afternoon away from the sheltered
locations. Expect 10 to 20 mph, with local gusts to 30 mph. These
should subside between 22 to 04Z. Location such as LWS/EAT/PUW,
however, will be more sheltered and should experience lighter
winds. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from regional
wildfires. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /  10   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /  10   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 052153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: The Inland NW will be in a
more progressive northwest flow, with the next chance of showers
and thunderstorms arriving around Tuesday. But first tonight into
Monday a shortwave trough near the central Panhandle pulls east
into Montana and subtle shortwave ridging moves into the region.
With drier air and a stabilizing atmosphere, look for an end to
the lingering shower threat over far southeast Shoshone county and
mostly clear skies until Monday afternoon. The sky, however, will
still be milky white from the smoke from the variety of wildfires
from Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. By Monday afternoon daytime
heating and the leading edge of the next system will bring a few
more clouds in from the north. As for winds, the gradients slowly
slacken tonight into Monday. This will lead to a gradual decrease
in winds, with the most notable decrease Monday afternoon when the
thermal trough reorganizes over the western Columbia Basin.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the next system drops in
from the BC. It is not as sharp or fast as the most recent system,
but it encounters some broader and better instability and so
carries a broader shower and thunderstorm threat. First on Monday
night a weak shortwave/jet streak skims by the northeast. With
some pockets of elevated instability there could be a few
shower/t-storms around the northeast mountains of WA and north ID,
but overall look for some increased clouds and dry weather. Going
into Tuesday the main trough axis pivots into northeast WA and
north ID. There is deeper moisture, especially across northeast WA
and north ID, and expanding SBCAPE (around 200 to 700 J/kg, with
potential pockets around 1000 J/kg or so) especially across the
Cascade crest and the northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains. So
look for an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms through
the afternoon, with the best threat toward from Stevens County to
Boundary/Bonner and eastern Shoshone county where the lift is
best. Smaller chances will be found across the Okanogan Highlands
and from northern Spokane county through the higher Palouse. We
will have to think about potential abundant lightning and fire
weather concerns, especially around the northern mountains and
potentially the Cascades depending on the amount of lift.

From Tuesday night into Wednesday the shortwave begins to drop
south and shortwave ridging, broader subsidence and drier air
comes in from the north. This will allow for the threat of
precipitation to gradually shift to just southeast WA and the
central Panhandle and wane. This will leave the remainder of the
CWA dry with decreasing clouds. /J. Cote`

Thursday through Sunday..Confidence is growing that the unprecedented
heat of late will finally ease as the deep upper level low west
of the Bay area gets slowly nudged toward the Inland Northwest.
The trigger to cause this ejection will be the approach of a
stronger upper level trough expected to move into the NE Pacific.
There are questions as to how quickly the low will surge north and
what impacts it will have. For Thursday there is good model
agreement that the low will move into central California which
will begin to shunt some monsoonal moisture northward toward our
forecast area. If it makes it this far it would likely only result
in a small chance of thunderstorms over the extreme SE corner of
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. By Friday this threat
will spread even farther north as the offshore trough moves closer
to the coast. This could impact most of the Panhandle and far
northern portions of Washington with a small threat of
thunderstorms. At least this is what the ECMWF model is
suggesting. Meanwhile the Canadian and GFS models keep the threat
confined to SE Washington and the southern Panhandle. We suspect
that by Saturday we should see the most widespread thunderstorm
threat as the offshore trough pushes a weak upper level
disturbance through southern British Columbia while the
aforementioned upper level low weakens considerably somewhere over
SE Washington or NE Oregon. Based on moisture availability and
potential instability the best chances for thunderstorms will
occur over the Panhandle and extreme eastern Washington. There
would also be a threat near the Cascades. This is no sure bet
through as the Canadian model shows that both of the upper level
features will wash out before arriving in the Inland NW. On Sunday
the models all show an amplification of the trough off the coast
with more consolidated southerly flow impacting the entire
forecast area. Whether or not this brings widespread thunderstorms
is questionable. The ECMWF would say yes while the Canadian and
GFS say perhaps not.

While the specific question of where and when thunderstorms could
occur is tough to answer at this time, our confidence is better
that the temperatures will be coming down. Thursday and Friday
still look unseasonably warm with widespread highs in the 90s to
lower 100s. Saturday and Sunday should deliver some cooling
although not dramatic. Highs will remain in the mid 80s and 90s
but the relative humidity levels will begin to creep upward which
is somewhat better news for dry fuel conditions. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A shortwave drops by the central Panhandle, with few
clouds. But TAF sites will be VFR and dry. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty through this afternoon away from the sheltered
locations. Expect 10 to 20 mph, with local gusts to 30 mph. These
should subside between 22 to 04Z. Location such as LWS/EAT/PUW,
however, will be more sheltered and should experience lighter
winds. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from regional
wildfires. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /  10   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /  10   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 052153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: The Inland NW will be in a
more progressive northwest flow, with the next chance of showers
and thunderstorms arriving around Tuesday. But first tonight into
Monday a shortwave trough near the central Panhandle pulls east
into Montana and subtle shortwave ridging moves into the region.
With drier air and a stabilizing atmosphere, look for an end to
the lingering shower threat over far southeast Shoshone county and
mostly clear skies until Monday afternoon. The sky, however, will
still be milky white from the smoke from the variety of wildfires
from Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. By Monday afternoon daytime
heating and the leading edge of the next system will bring a few
more clouds in from the north. As for winds, the gradients slowly
slacken tonight into Monday. This will lead to a gradual decrease
in winds, with the most notable decrease Monday afternoon when the
thermal trough reorganizes over the western Columbia Basin.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the next system drops in
from the BC. It is not as sharp or fast as the most recent system,
but it encounters some broader and better instability and so
carries a broader shower and thunderstorm threat. First on Monday
night a weak shortwave/jet streak skims by the northeast. With
some pockets of elevated instability there could be a few
shower/t-storms around the northeast mountains of WA and north ID,
but overall look for some increased clouds and dry weather. Going
into Tuesday the main trough axis pivots into northeast WA and
north ID. There is deeper moisture, especially across northeast WA
and north ID, and expanding SBCAPE (around 200 to 700 J/kg, with
potential pockets around 1000 J/kg or so) especially across the
Cascade crest and the northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains. So
look for an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms through
the afternoon, with the best threat toward from Stevens County to
Boundary/Bonner and eastern Shoshone county where the lift is
best. Smaller chances will be found across the Okanogan Highlands
and from northern Spokane county through the higher Palouse. We
will have to think about potential abundant lightning and fire
weather concerns, especially around the northern mountains and
potentially the Cascades depending on the amount of lift.

From Tuesday night into Wednesday the shortwave begins to drop
south and shortwave ridging, broader subsidence and drier air
comes in from the north. This will allow for the threat of
precipitation to gradually shift to just southeast WA and the
central Panhandle and wane. This will leave the remainder of the
CWA dry with decreasing clouds. /J. Cote`

Thursday through Sunday..Confidence is growing that the unprecedented
heat of late will finally ease as the deep upper level low west
of the Bay area gets slowly nudged toward the Inland Northwest.
The trigger to cause this ejection will be the approach of a
stronger upper level trough expected to move into the NE Pacific.
There are questions as to how quickly the low will surge north and
what impacts it will have. For Thursday there is good model
agreement that the low will move into central California which
will begin to shunt some monsoonal moisture northward toward our
forecast area. If it makes it this far it would likely only result
in a small chance of thunderstorms over the extreme SE corner of
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. By Friday this threat
will spread even farther north as the offshore trough moves closer
to the coast. This could impact most of the Panhandle and far
northern portions of Washington with a small threat of
thunderstorms. At least this is what the ECMWF model is
suggesting. Meanwhile the Canadian and GFS models keep the threat
confined to SE Washington and the southern Panhandle. We suspect
that by Saturday we should see the most widespread thunderstorm
threat as the offshore trough pushes a weak upper level
disturbance through southern British Columbia while the
aforementioned upper level low weakens considerably somewhere over
SE Washington or NE Oregon. Based on moisture availability and
potential instability the best chances for thunderstorms will
occur over the Panhandle and extreme eastern Washington. There
would also be a threat near the Cascades. This is no sure bet
through as the Canadian model shows that both of the upper level
features will wash out before arriving in the Inland NW. On Sunday
the models all show an amplification of the trough off the coast
with more consolidated southerly flow impacting the entire
forecast area. Whether or not this brings widespread thunderstorms
is questionable. The ECMWF would say yes while the Canadian and
GFS say perhaps not.

While the specific question of where and when thunderstorms could
occur is tough to answer at this time, our confidence is better
that the temperatures will be coming down. Thursday and Friday
still look unseasonably warm with widespread highs in the 90s to
lower 100s. Saturday and Sunday should deliver some cooling
although not dramatic. Highs will remain in the mid 80s and 90s
but the relative humidity levels will begin to creep upward which
is somewhat better news for dry fuel conditions. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A shortwave drops by the central Panhandle, with few
clouds. But TAF sites will be VFR and dry. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty through this afternoon away from the sheltered
locations. Expect 10 to 20 mph, with local gusts to 30 mph. These
should subside between 22 to 04Z. Location such as LWS/EAT/PUW,
however, will be more sheltered and should experience lighter
winds. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from regional
wildfires. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /  10   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /  10   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 052139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES AT 2PM THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING 2 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON READINGS...SO WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO
REACH MID 90S AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY.  SOME RECORD HIGHS
WILL LIKELY BE SET TODAY IN NORTHWEST OREGON WITH EXISTING DAILY
RECORDS OF 94...93 AND 95 AT PORTLAND...VANCOUVER AND TROUTDALE...
RESPECTIVELY.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER NE PACIFIC AND STRETCHES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE PROLONGED PERIOD
OF HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE COAST WILL REMAIN
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AS COOLER MARINE AIR
HUGS THE COASTLINE. EXPECT TO SEE A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR
PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS
PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN GET...IT MAY SQUEEZE A LITTLE MARINE AIR INTO
THE COASTAL RANGE GAPS AND PROVIDE A LITTLE TEMPERATURE RELIEF TO
COMMUNITIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COAST RANGE.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THATS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD BY MID WEEK...IT MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON TUES/WED.
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUES AND WED. TW

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THAT REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY COOLING
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY INLAND. COOLER MARINE AIR MOVES IN
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.
PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH MARINE AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH MON. IFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG MOST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PUSH THE STRATUS BACK NORTH
ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO MON AM. VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH MON FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH STARTING
MON AM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME MARINE STRATUS MAY BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KEUG TERMINAL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
TODAY. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND OBSERVED WINDS ARE 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE
WEAK GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WED...WITH WINDS
MOSTLY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED...BRINGING A RETURN TO THE SEASONAL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND PATTERN AS HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS.

SEAS CURRENTLY SIT AT 7 TO 8 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS.
EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
  COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
  VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON
  CASCADE FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
  GORGE.


WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
10 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 052139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL REGION...WHERE COOLER MARINE AIR
WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AN UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES AT 2PM THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING 2 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON READINGS...SO WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO
REACH MID 90S AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY.  SOME RECORD HIGHS
WILL LIKELY BE SET TODAY IN NORTHWEST OREGON WITH EXISTING DAILY
RECORDS OF 94...93 AND 95 AT PORTLAND...VANCOUVER AND TROUTDALE...
RESPECTIVELY.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER NE PACIFIC AND STRETCHES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE PROLONGED PERIOD
OF HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE COAST WILL REMAIN
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AS COOLER MARINE AIR
HUGS THE COASTLINE. EXPECT TO SEE A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR
PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS
PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN GET...IT MAY SQUEEZE A LITTLE MARINE AIR INTO
THE COASTAL RANGE GAPS AND PROVIDE A LITTLE TEMPERATURE RELIEF TO
COMMUNITIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COAST RANGE.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THATS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD BY MID WEEK...IT MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON TUES/WED.
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUES AND WED. TW

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THAT REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY COOLING
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY INLAND. COOLER MARINE AIR MOVES IN
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.
PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH MARINE AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH MON. IFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG MOST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PUSH THE STRATUS BACK NORTH
ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO MON AM. VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH MON FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH STARTING
MON AM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME MARINE STRATUS MAY BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KEUG TERMINAL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
TODAY. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND OBSERVED WINDS ARE 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE
WEAK GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WED...WITH WINDS
MOSTLY REMAINING BELOW 15 KT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED...BRINGING A RETURN TO THE SEASONAL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND PATTERN AS HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS.

SEAS CURRENTLY SIT AT 7 TO 8 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS.
EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN 5 FT OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
  COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
  VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON
  CASCADE FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
  GORGE.


WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
10 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051802
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1102 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.




&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: A shortwave trough continues to pivot by the
Panhandle this morning, providing a thin line of clouds and
embedded showers from just northeast of Deary to southeast Avery,
across southeast Shoshone county. And this spotty threat of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger here for the
afternoon. However conditions will overall remain dry and breezy.
The strongest winds are coming down out across the western
Columbia Basin and out through the Purcell Trench (Sandpoint out
into Coeur d`Alene) in the 15 to 25 mph range. Some peak gusts so
far today have been 30 mph in Ephrata, 31 mph in Coeur d`Alene,
and 35 mph in Omak, 38 mph in Sandpoint.

Minor tweaks made to sky cover, those isolated shower/t-storm
chances across the Central Panhandle. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A shortwave drops by the central Panhandle, with few
clouds. But TAF sites will be VFR and dry. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty through this afternoon away from the sheltered
locations. Expect 10 to 20 mph, with local gusts to 30 mph. These
should subside between 22 to 04Z. Location such as LWS/EAT/PUW,
however, will be more sheltered and should experience lighter
winds. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from regional
wildfires. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 051802
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1102 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.




&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: A shortwave trough continues to pivot by the
Panhandle this morning, providing a thin line of clouds and
embedded showers from just northeast of Deary to southeast Avery,
across southeast Shoshone county. And this spotty threat of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger here for the
afternoon. However conditions will overall remain dry and breezy.
The strongest winds are coming down out across the western
Columbia Basin and out through the Purcell Trench (Sandpoint out
into Coeur d`Alene) in the 15 to 25 mph range. Some peak gusts so
far today have been 30 mph in Ephrata, 31 mph in Coeur d`Alene,
and 35 mph in Omak, 38 mph in Sandpoint.

Minor tweaks made to sky cover, those isolated shower/t-storm
chances across the Central Panhandle. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A shortwave drops by the central Panhandle, with few
clouds. But TAF sites will be VFR and dry. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty through this afternoon away from the sheltered
locations. Expect 10 to 20 mph, with local gusts to 30 mph. These
should subside between 22 to 04Z. Location such as LWS/EAT/PUW,
however, will be more sheltered and should experience lighter
winds. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from regional
wildfires. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 051702
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
EUGENE AREA AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
ADJACENT COAST RANGE.  AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO
LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPS AT 9AM THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE SAT AM READING...SO WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
INLAND TODAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER NE PACIFIC AND STRETCHES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INLAND
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE COAST
WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.

THE THERMAL LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS
BEHIND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN ID
AND MT THIS MORNING.  WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE WA
COAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT...IT PROVIDES A GOOD SETUP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP
THE COAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN
GET...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND PERHAPS INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR THE EUGENE
METRO AREA. AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS
DOUBTFUL THE MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM
NORTHWARD. THUS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE DAYS.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THATS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...IT MAY
BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON
TUES/WED.  THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES MIDWEEK.
 TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 051702
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
EUGENE AREA AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
ADJACENT COAST RANGE.  AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO
LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPS AT 9AM THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE SAT AM READING...SO WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
INLAND TODAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER NE PACIFIC AND STRETCHES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INLAND
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE COAST
WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.

THE THERMAL LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS
BEHIND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN ID
AND MT THIS MORNING.  WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE WA
COAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT...IT PROVIDES A GOOD SETUP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP
THE COAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN
GET...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND PERHAPS INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR THE EUGENE
METRO AREA. AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS
DOUBTFUL THE MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM
NORTHWARD. THUS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE DAYS.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THATS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...IT MAY
BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON
TUES/WED.  THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES MIDWEEK.
 TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 051702
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
EUGENE AREA AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
ADJACENT COAST RANGE.  AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO
LANE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TEMPS AT 9AM THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE SAT AM READING...SO WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
INLAND TODAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER NE PACIFIC AND STRETCHES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INLAND
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE COAST
WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.

THE THERMAL LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS
BEHIND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN ID
AND MT THIS MORNING.  WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE WA
COAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT...IT PROVIDES A GOOD SETUP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP
THE COAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN
GET...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND PERHAPS INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR THE EUGENE
METRO AREA. AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS
DOUBTFUL THE MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM
NORTHWARD. THUS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE DAYS.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THATS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...IT MAY
BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON
TUES/WED.  THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES MIDWEEK.
 TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 051558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STREAK OF WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAIN WRN WA SEA-TAC
URBAN AREA. THERE IS A PATCH OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ON THE COAST THIS
MORNING BUT IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. AN AREA OF SMOKE IS DRIFTING
SOUTH FROM A FOREST FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. FOR
MON AND TUE SOME LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BUT MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES WHERE
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 60S RIGHT ON THE BEACH TO THE 70S A FEW
MILES INLAND.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. A COOLING
TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE MORE CLOUDS AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW SHOWERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NE PAC TODAY WITH
N/NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. THERE IS
PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THAT WILL BURN OFF LATE THIS
MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH N WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO 12 KT. 33

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE WA COAST
WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON MONDAY FOR A
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. 33


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPEARED TO BE PEAKING
THIS MORNING...WITH THE BELLINGHAM-WILLIAMS LAKE B.C. GRADIENT AT
-10.3 MB AS OF 8 AM. THIS KIND OF GRADIENT BRINGS FRASER-OUTFLOW
STYLE WINDS...EXCEPT THIS WIND IN THE SUMMER IS HOT AND DRY.
OBSERVING SITES AROUND WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY HAVE STARTED THE
MORNING OFF WITH MODERATE BREEZES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 30
PERCENT. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THESE KIND OF CONDITIONS WILL
EXPAND OUT ACROSS THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHWEST OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. NE WINDS WILL TAKE HOT TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST TODAY...WITH FORKS EXPECTING A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES
TODAY. MARBLEMOUNT IN THE NORTH CASCADES MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF NE WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY AS WELL. FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...
THE MOST CRITICAL COMBINATION OF WIND AND HUMIDITY COMING LATE THIS
MORNING. A MODERATE NORTH BREEZE WILL THEN DEVELOP AROUND MID-DAY
FROM THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS...FOCUSING ON THE KITSAP PENINSULA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING INTO THE VERY DRY 15-30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTN...EVEN A
MODERATE BREEZE OF 10-15 MPH WILL REALLY PUSH GRASS FIRES ALONG
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY WHERE WIND AND SLOPE ALIGN. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT TODAY TO HIGHLIGHT THE SAFETY CONCERNS BROUGHT ABOUT BY
THE MODERATE BREEZES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY.

LASTLY...THE MID-LEVEL HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5-6 RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS INDICATES A DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER. FIRES BURNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET UNDER
SUCH CONDITIONS CAN BECOME ROWDY AND PLUME-DOMINATED.HANER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS OF 90
DEGREES OR ABOVE AT SEATAC THROUGH SATURDAY...JULY 4. THE RECORD
FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES IS FIVE.
THIS WAS SET IN AUGUST OF 1981. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN WE WILL TIE
THIS RECORD TODAY WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 95. THERE IS A CHANCE WE
WILL BREAK THE RECORD ON MONDAY WHEN THE HIGH WILL BE NEAR 90
AGAIN. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 5 PM TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 650...653...654...AND 656.

PZ...NONE.

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY UNAVAILABLE...AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be
possible, especially toward COE and MWH this morning. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day, but gusts toward 20
to 25 kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated layers of smoke from regional wildfires. All TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 051127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be
possible, especially toward COE and MWH this morning. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day, but gusts toward 20
to 25 kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated layers of smoke from regional wildfires. All TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 051127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be
possible, especially toward COE and MWH this morning. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day, but gusts toward 20
to 25 kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated layers of smoke from regional wildfires. All TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 051127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be
possible, especially toward COE and MWH this morning. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day, but gusts toward 20
to 25 kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated layers of smoke from regional wildfires. All TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 051127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be
possible, especially toward COE and MWH this morning. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day, but gusts toward 20
to 25 kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated layers of smoke from regional wildfires. All TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be
possible, especially toward COE and MWH this morning. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day, but gusts toward 20
to 25 kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated layers of smoke from regional wildfires. All TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 051022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE HEAT IS ON ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON...AND WILL REMAIN ON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STAGNANT
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINING DOMINANT. A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR EUGENE AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR
PUSHES THROUGH THE ADJACENT COAST RANGE. OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE WEAK AND INEFFECTIVE AT BRINGING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE
COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE OF 2015
CONTINUES ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS RENDERED ONSHORE FLOW WEAK AND
INEFFECTIVE FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS STRETCHED FROM TEXAS/FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH OREGON AND
INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO COMPRESS THE MARINE
LAYER SUCH THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS ROBBED OF ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MORE THAN A FEW MILES INLAND.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA TURNS THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS WA/N OR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
TODAY...FURTHER LIMITING ONSHORE FLOW OR EVEN TURNING IT A LITTLE
OFFSHORE ACROSS WRN WA. WITH ANY VESTIGE OF A MARINE INVERSION
ELIMINATED...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HEAT UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY VERSUS
SATURDAY DESPITE SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20 TO +21 DEG C RANGE.
THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 100 TODAY FOR MANY INLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO AND SALEM.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFF THE WA COAST AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...AN IDEAL SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP THE COAST
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN GET...IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME DECENT COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND EVEN THE EUGENE METRO. DECIDED TO END THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THESE ZONES THIS EVENING...AS 4 KM WRF-ARW AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST
COOLING SW WINDS PUSHING INTO THE S WILLAMETTE VLY TONIGHT. SOME
MODELS ARE SO BULLISH WITH THIS MARINE PUSH THAT THEY EVEN BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EUGENE AREA MON MORNING...SUSPECT THIS IS A
LITTLE OVERDONE.

AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM NORTHWARD.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND ONSHORE FLOW MITIGATED DUE TO
LOW PRES/WEAKENED HIGH PRES OFFSHORE...EXPECT A FEW MORE HOT DAYS
WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S THROUGH WED. A WEAK FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP NIGHTS WARM. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY THROUGH WED...SO WE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WED EVENING. HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL BE AS FAR AS WE NEED TO GO WITH IT...AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON OUR UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST BY LATE
WEEK.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO
SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO INDUCE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE LANE CO CASCADES. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT IT
APPEARS TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/WED UNLESS THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 051022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE HEAT IS ON ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON...AND WILL REMAIN ON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STAGNANT
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINING DOMINANT. A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR EUGENE AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR
PUSHES THROUGH THE ADJACENT COAST RANGE. OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE WEAK AND INEFFECTIVE AT BRINGING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE
COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE OF 2015
CONTINUES ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS RENDERED ONSHORE FLOW WEAK AND
INEFFECTIVE FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS STRETCHED FROM TEXAS/FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH OREGON AND
INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO COMPRESS THE MARINE
LAYER SUCH THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS ROBBED OF ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MORE THAN A FEW MILES INLAND.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA TURNS THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS WA/N OR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
TODAY...FURTHER LIMITING ONSHORE FLOW OR EVEN TURNING IT A LITTLE
OFFSHORE ACROSS WRN WA. WITH ANY VESTIGE OF A MARINE INVERSION
ELIMINATED...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HEAT UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY VERSUS
SATURDAY DESPITE SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20 TO +21 DEG C RANGE.
THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 100 TODAY FOR MANY INLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO AND SALEM.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFF THE WA COAST AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...AN IDEAL SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP THE COAST
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN GET...IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME DECENT COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND EVEN THE EUGENE METRO. DECIDED TO END THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THESE ZONES THIS EVENING...AS 4 KM WRF-ARW AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST
COOLING SW WINDS PUSHING INTO THE S WILLAMETTE VLY TONIGHT. SOME
MODELS ARE SO BULLISH WITH THIS MARINE PUSH THAT THEY EVEN BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EUGENE AREA MON MORNING...SUSPECT THIS IS A
LITTLE OVERDONE.

AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM NORTHWARD.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND ONSHORE FLOW MITIGATED DUE TO
LOW PRES/WEAKENED HIGH PRES OFFSHORE...EXPECT A FEW MORE HOT DAYS
WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S THROUGH WED. A WEAK FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP NIGHTS WARM. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY THROUGH WED...SO WE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WED EVENING. HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL BE AS FAR AS WE NEED TO GO WITH IT...AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON OUR UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST BY LATE
WEEK.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO
SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO INDUCE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE LANE CO CASCADES. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT IT
APPEARS TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/WED UNLESS THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 051022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE HEAT IS ON ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON...AND WILL REMAIN ON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STAGNANT
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINING DOMINANT. A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR EUGENE AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR
PUSHES THROUGH THE ADJACENT COAST RANGE. OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE WEAK AND INEFFECTIVE AT BRINGING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE
COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE OF 2015
CONTINUES ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS RENDERED ONSHORE FLOW WEAK AND
INEFFECTIVE FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS STRETCHED FROM TEXAS/FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH OREGON AND
INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO COMPRESS THE MARINE
LAYER SUCH THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS ROBBED OF ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MORE THAN A FEW MILES INLAND.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA TURNS THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS WA/N OR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
TODAY...FURTHER LIMITING ONSHORE FLOW OR EVEN TURNING IT A LITTLE
OFFSHORE ACROSS WRN WA. WITH ANY VESTIGE OF A MARINE INVERSION
ELIMINATED...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HEAT UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY VERSUS
SATURDAY DESPITE SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20 TO +21 DEG C RANGE.
THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 100 TODAY FOR MANY INLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO AND SALEM.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFF THE WA COAST AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...AN IDEAL SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP THE COAST
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN GET...IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME DECENT COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND EVEN THE EUGENE METRO. DECIDED TO END THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THESE ZONES THIS EVENING...AS 4 KM WRF-ARW AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST
COOLING SW WINDS PUSHING INTO THE S WILLAMETTE VLY TONIGHT. SOME
MODELS ARE SO BULLISH WITH THIS MARINE PUSH THAT THEY EVEN BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EUGENE AREA MON MORNING...SUSPECT THIS IS A
LITTLE OVERDONE.

AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM NORTHWARD.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND ONSHORE FLOW MITIGATED DUE TO
LOW PRES/WEAKENED HIGH PRES OFFSHORE...EXPECT A FEW MORE HOT DAYS
WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S THROUGH WED. A WEAK FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP NIGHTS WARM. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY THROUGH WED...SO WE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WED EVENING. HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL BE AS FAR AS WE NEED TO GO WITH IT...AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON OUR UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST BY LATE
WEEK.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO
SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO INDUCE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE LANE CO CASCADES. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT IT
APPEARS TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/WED UNLESS THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 051022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 AM PDT SUN JUL  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE HEAT IS ON ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON...AND WILL REMAIN ON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STAGNANT
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINING DOMINANT. A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR EUGENE AS A SOUTHWEST SURGE OF MARINE AIR
PUSHES THROUGH THE ADJACENT COAST RANGE. OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE WEAK AND INEFFECTIVE AT BRINGING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TUE/WED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS UP THE CASCADE CREST TO LANE
COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME LATER THIS WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE OF 2015
CONTINUES ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS RENDERED ONSHORE FLOW WEAK AND
INEFFECTIVE FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS STRETCHED FROM TEXAS/FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH OREGON AND
INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO COMPRESS THE MARINE
LAYER SUCH THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS ROBBED OF ITS COOLING INFLUENCE BY
THE TIME IT REACHES MORE THAN A FEW MILES INLAND.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA TURNS THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS WA/N OR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
TODAY...FURTHER LIMITING ONSHORE FLOW OR EVEN TURNING IT A LITTLE
OFFSHORE ACROSS WRN WA. WITH ANY VESTIGE OF A MARINE INVERSION
ELIMINATED...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HEAT UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY VERSUS
SATURDAY DESPITE SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20 TO +21 DEG C RANGE.
THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 100 TODAY FOR MANY INLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO AND SALEM.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFF THE WA COAST AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...AN IDEAL SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR TO DEVELOP AND PUSH UP THE COAST
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THIS PUSH OF MARINE AIR CAN GET...IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME DECENT COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE AND EVEN THE EUGENE METRO. DECIDED TO END THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THESE ZONES THIS EVENING...AS 4 KM WRF-ARW AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST
COOLING SW WINDS PUSHING INTO THE S WILLAMETTE VLY TONIGHT. SOME
MODELS ARE SO BULLISH WITH THIS MARINE PUSH THAT THEY EVEN BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EUGENE AREA MON MORNING...SUSPECT THIS IS A
LITTLE OVERDONE.

AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS IT IS DOUBTFUL THE
MARINE PUSH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AREAS SALEM NORTHWARD.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND ONSHORE FLOW MITIGATED DUE TO
LOW PRES/WEAKENED HIGH PRES OFFSHORE...EXPECT A FEW MORE HOT DAYS
WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S THROUGH WED. A WEAK FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP NIGHTS WARM. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY THROUGH WED...SO WE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WED EVENING. HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL BE AS FAR AS WE NEED TO GO WITH IT...AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON OUR UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST BY LATE
WEEK.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO
SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO INDUCE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE LANE CO CASCADES. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT IT
APPEARS TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/WED UNLESS THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CIGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 800 FT WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FOG
WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
17Z SUNDAY.  A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. /26

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WATERS TODAY AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TODAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN
15 KT. THE THERMAL LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS
RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
BAR CONDITIONS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-SOUTH
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
     UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 051021
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
321 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY FOR A
VERY WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. EVEN THE
COAST WILL BE VERY WARM. WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR A MINOR COOLING TREND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
SEATTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST EACH DAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. A COOLING
TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE MORE CLOUDS AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW SHOWERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERN WA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NLY FLOW ALOFT. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

MEANWHILE...AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ON THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE BY
1800 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. WINDS WILL BE NLY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRES ALONG
THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN N OR NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH LOW END
ADVISORY CRITERION LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS /NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS/ AND PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND.

THE AREA OF LOW PRES WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE E OF THE
CASCADES MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BECOME WEAK
ONSHORE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PEAK THIS
MORNING. THE BELLINGHAM-WILLIAMS LAKE B.C. GRADIENT HAS RISEN TO
AROUND -10.0 MB THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO PARTS WESTERN WHATCOM
COUNTY...THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWEST OLYMPIC
PENINSULA TODAY. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS MORNING...DURING A PERIOD BEFORE WINDS DIE DOWN BUT AFTER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED FOR THE DAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL USHER IN HOT TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...WITH
FORKS EXPECTING A HIGH AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY.

MOST OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP
INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT RANGE IS ABOUT
AS DRY AS WE GET AROUND HERE. MEANWHILE...THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-5...ESPECIALLY THE KITSAP PENINSULA...SHOULD
HAVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF THAT MODEST MAGNITUDE WITH SUCH LOW HUMIDITY
AND SUCH DRY FUELS COULD REALLY PUSH GRASS FIRES ALONG
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY WHERE WIND AND SLOPE ALIGN. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY TO HANDLE THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY.

LASTLY...THE MID-LEVEL HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5-6 RANGE ON
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INDICATES A DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. FIRES BURNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000
FEET UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS CAN BECOME ROWDY AND PLUME-DOMINATED.

WITH SUCH HOT AND DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH FUELS THAT ARE
UNPRECEDENTEDLY DRY FOR SO EARLY IN FIRE SEASON...PLEASE BE
CAREFUL WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. CONDITIONS ARE FAR BEYOND THE
LEVEL OF FIRE DANGER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN THE LIFETIME OF
MANY WHO WILL BE PLAYING WITH FIREWORKS THIS WEEKEND. BY THE SAME
TOKEN...FIREFIGHTERS RESPONDING TO WILDLAND FIRES SHOULD EXPECT
UNUSUALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS. HANER/SCHNEIDER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS OF 90
DEGREES OR ABOVE AT SEATAC THROUGH SATURDAY...JULY 4. THE RECORD
FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES IS FIVE.
THIS WAS SET IN AUGUST OF 1981. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN WE WILL TIE
THIS RECORD TODAY WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 95. THERE IS A CHANCE WE
WILL BREAK THE RECORD ON MONDAY WHEN THE HIGH WILL BE NEAR 90
AGAIN. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH PUGET
     SOUND-PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-NORTH COASTAL LOWLANDS-STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR LOWLANDS-WEST SLOPES OF THE
     NORTH CASCADES.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
     EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY UNAVAILABLE...AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 051021
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
321 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY FOR A
VERY WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. EVEN THE
COAST WILL BE VERY WARM. WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR A MINOR COOLING TREND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
SEATTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST EACH DAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. A COOLING
TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE MORE CLOUDS AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW SHOWERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERN WA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NLY FLOW ALOFT. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

MEANWHILE...AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ON THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE BY
1800 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. WINDS WILL BE NLY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRES ALONG
THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL RESULT IN N OR NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH LOW END
ADVISORY CRITERION LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS /NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS/ AND PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND.

THE AREA OF LOW PRES WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE E OF THE
CASCADES MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BECOME WEAK
ONSHORE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PEAK THIS
MORNING. THE BELLINGHAM-WILLIAMS LAKE B.C. GRADIENT HAS RISEN TO
AROUND -10.0 MB THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO PARTS WESTERN WHATCOM
COUNTY...THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWEST OLYMPIC
PENINSULA TODAY. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS MORNING...DURING A PERIOD BEFORE WINDS DIE DOWN BUT AFTER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED FOR THE DAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL USHER IN HOT TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...WITH
FORKS EXPECTING A HIGH AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY.

MOST OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP
INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT RANGE IS ABOUT
AS DRY AS WE GET AROUND HERE. MEANWHILE...THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-5...ESPECIALLY THE KITSAP PENINSULA...SHOULD
HAVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF THAT MODEST MAGNITUDE WITH SUCH LOW HUMIDITY
AND SUCH DRY FUELS COULD REALLY PUSH GRASS FIRES ALONG
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY WHERE WIND AND SLOPE ALIGN. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY TO HANDLE THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY.

LASTLY...THE MID-LEVEL HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5-6 RANGE ON
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INDICATES A DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. FIRES BURNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000
FEET UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS CAN BECOME ROWDY AND PLUME-DOMINATED.

WITH SUCH HOT AND DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH FUELS THAT ARE
UNPRECEDENTEDLY DRY FOR SO EARLY IN FIRE SEASON...PLEASE BE
CAREFUL WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. CONDITIONS ARE FAR BEYOND THE
LEVEL OF FIRE DANGER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN THE LIFETIME OF
MANY WHO WILL BE PLAYING WITH FIREWORKS THIS WEEKEND. BY THE SAME
TOKEN...FIREFIGHTERS RESPONDING TO WILDLAND FIRES SHOULD EXPECT
UNUSUALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS. HANER/SCHNEIDER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS OF 90
DEGREES OR ABOVE AT SEATAC THROUGH SATURDAY...JULY 4. THE RECORD
FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES IS FIVE.
THIS WAS SET IN AUGUST OF 1981. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN WE WILL TIE
THIS RECORD TODAY WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 95. THERE IS A CHANCE WE
WILL BREAK THE RECORD ON MONDAY WHEN THE HIGH WILL BE NEAR 90
AGAIN. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH PUGET
     SOUND-PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-NORTH COASTAL LOWLANDS-STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR LOWLANDS-WEST SLOPES OF THE
     NORTH CASCADES.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
     EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARILY UNAVAILABLE...AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050926
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as a cold front moves through the region. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050926
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as a cold front moves through the region. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




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