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000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 241016
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE POPPED
UP ON THE RADARS SINCE EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
A NARROW RANGE AT 3 AM...LOWER TO MID 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CASCADES. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR LESS PUTTING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S TODAY. SOME SMALL CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LATER TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEST NORTHWESTERLY
WHICH WILL PUSH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CASCADES LATER
TODAY TO THE EAST SLOPES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL
DAY ENDING UP OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON BY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PLUS MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD THIN
OUT THE MARINE LAYER A TOUCH SO THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON
SUNBREAKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR NORMAL ON
MEMORIAL DAY...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOW STILL NOT FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP
THE THREAT OF LATE DAY CONVECTION OUT OF THE CASCADES WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR THE CREST. FOR THE LOWLANDS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING
KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. ONCE AGAIN THE MARINE LAYER THINS OUT A BIT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SUNSHINE. HIGH IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE COMMON.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 570 DMS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 15C. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE WHICH
WILL TEMPER THE WARMING TREND SOMEWHAT BUT THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS
ALSO WEAKEN LEADING TO MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER DAYS. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE KEEPING THE THREAT OF LATE DAY
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW
AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER
MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 1-2K FT THIS MORNING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K
FT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE STRAIT BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WIND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 241016
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE POPPED
UP ON THE RADARS SINCE EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
A NARROW RANGE AT 3 AM...LOWER TO MID 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CASCADES. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR LESS PUTTING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S TODAY. SOME SMALL CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LATER TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEST NORTHWESTERLY
WHICH WILL PUSH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CASCADES LATER
TODAY TO THE EAST SLOPES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL
DAY ENDING UP OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON BY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PLUS MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD THIN
OUT THE MARINE LAYER A TOUCH SO THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON
SUNBREAKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR NORMAL ON
MEMORIAL DAY...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOW STILL NOT FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP
THE THREAT OF LATE DAY CONVECTION OUT OF THE CASCADES WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR THE CREST. FOR THE LOWLANDS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING
KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. ONCE AGAIN THE MARINE LAYER THINS OUT A BIT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SUNSHINE. HIGH IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE COMMON.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 570 DMS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 15C. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE WHICH
WILL TEMPER THE WARMING TREND SOMEWHAT BUT THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS
ALSO WEAKEN LEADING TO MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER DAYS. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE KEEPING THE THREAT OF LATE DAY
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW
AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER
MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 1-2K FT THIS MORNING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K
FT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE STRAIT BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WIND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 240914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
215 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS KEEPING A MARINE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WA AND OREGON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN BC ACROSS EASTERN
WA AND INTO IDAHO THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE E PAC EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING WAS
AROUND 5K FT DEEP ON 00Z SLE SOUNDING. WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE MARINE AIR
MASS PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER. A LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BC COAST EARLY SUN MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND EASTERN WA TODAY THROUGH TUE. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SUGGEST SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MARINE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAYS HIGHS.
SURFACE REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A FEW LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST
RANGE. WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW MORNINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST
LIKELY MON AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS DOWN INTO WA WHILE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
S WA CASCADES AT TIMES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM
WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT
TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO
WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DO STAND
A BETTER SHOT AT NOTABLE INLAND CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST FOR THE DAY
ALTHOUGH DO SEE HINTS IN MODELS AT KONP BREAKING FREE FOR A FEW
HOURS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS INLAND TO START THE DAY AND
SEEING THE DECK LIFT TO A VFR CIG SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 21-23Z. MAY
ACTUALLY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE DECK SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FILLING BACK IN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL THEN SEE THE CIGS FALL BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AROUND 025 AGL FOR THE REST OF TOMORROW NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 025 THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL SEE
THE DECK LIFT TO BETWEEN 035 AND 045 PERHAPS OPENING THE DOOR TO A
PERIOD OF VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE 25/00 TO 04Z TIME FRAME. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C.
COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
215 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS KEEPING A MARINE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WA AND OREGON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN BC ACROSS EASTERN
WA AND INTO IDAHO THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE E PAC EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING WAS
AROUND 5K FT DEEP ON 00Z SLE SOUNDING. WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE MARINE AIR
MASS PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER. A LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BC COAST EARLY SUN MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND EASTERN WA TODAY THROUGH TUE. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SUGGEST SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MARINE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAYS HIGHS.
SURFACE REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A FEW LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST
RANGE. WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW MORNINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST
LIKELY MON AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS DOWN INTO WA WHILE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
S WA CASCADES AT TIMES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM
WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT
TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO
WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DO STAND
A BETTER SHOT AT NOTABLE INLAND CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST FOR THE DAY
ALTHOUGH DO SEE HINTS IN MODELS AT KONP BREAKING FREE FOR A FEW
HOURS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS INLAND TO START THE DAY AND
SEEING THE DECK LIFT TO A VFR CIG SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 21-23Z. MAY
ACTUALLY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE DECK SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FILLING BACK IN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL THEN SEE THE CIGS FALL BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AROUND 025 AGL FOR THE REST OF TOMORROW NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 025 THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL SEE
THE DECK LIFT TO BETWEEN 035 AND 045 PERHAPS OPENING THE DOOR TO A
PERIOD OF VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE 25/00 TO 04Z TIME FRAME. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C.
COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
215 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS KEEPING A MARINE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WA AND OREGON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN BC ACROSS EASTERN
WA AND INTO IDAHO THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE E PAC EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING WAS
AROUND 5K FT DEEP ON 00Z SLE SOUNDING. WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE MARINE AIR
MASS PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER. A LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BC COAST EARLY SUN MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND EASTERN WA TODAY THROUGH TUE. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SUGGEST SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MARINE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAYS HIGHS.
SURFACE REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A FEW LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST
RANGE. WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW MORNINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST
LIKELY MON AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS DOWN INTO WA WHILE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
S WA CASCADES AT TIMES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM
WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT
TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO
WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DO STAND
A BETTER SHOT AT NOTABLE INLAND CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST FOR THE DAY
ALTHOUGH DO SEE HINTS IN MODELS AT KONP BREAKING FREE FOR A FEW
HOURS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS INLAND TO START THE DAY AND
SEEING THE DECK LIFT TO A VFR CIG SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 21-23Z. MAY
ACTUALLY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE DECK SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FILLING BACK IN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL THEN SEE THE CIGS FALL BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AROUND 025 AGL FOR THE REST OF TOMORROW NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 025 THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL SEE
THE DECK LIFT TO BETWEEN 035 AND 045 PERHAPS OPENING THE DOOR TO A
PERIOD OF VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE 25/00 TO 04Z TIME FRAME. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C.
COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
215 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS KEEPING A MARINE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WA AND OREGON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN BC ACROSS EASTERN
WA AND INTO IDAHO THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE E PAC EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING WAS
AROUND 5K FT DEEP ON 00Z SLE SOUNDING. WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE MARINE AIR
MASS PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER. A LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BC COAST EARLY SUN MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND EASTERN WA TODAY THROUGH TUE. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SUGGEST SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MARINE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAYS HIGHS.
SURFACE REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A FEW LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST
RANGE. WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW MORNINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST
LIKELY MON AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS DOWN INTO WA WHILE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
S WA CASCADES AT TIMES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM
WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT
TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO
WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DO STAND
A BETTER SHOT AT NOTABLE INLAND CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST FOR THE DAY
ALTHOUGH DO SEE HINTS IN MODELS AT KONP BREAKING FREE FOR A FEW
HOURS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS INLAND TO START THE DAY AND
SEEING THE DECK LIFT TO A VFR CIG SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 21-23Z. MAY
ACTUALLY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE DECK SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FILLING BACK IN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL THEN SEE THE CIGS FALL BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AROUND 025 AGL FOR THE REST OF TOMORROW NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 025 THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL SEE
THE DECK LIFT TO BETWEEN 035 AND 045 PERHAPS OPENING THE DOOR TO A
PERIOD OF VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE 25/00 TO 04Z TIME FRAME. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C.
COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240524
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to increase pops for some locations to the
south for rest of the night as the cluster of thunderstorms
currently working their way through Pullman must have some
dynamics associated with their continuation this evening. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms woking their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  70  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240524
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to increase pops for some locations to the
south for rest of the night as the cluster of thunderstorms
currently working their way through Pullman must have some
dynamics associated with their continuation this evening. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms woking their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  70  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 240357 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STEERING FLOW TURNED WESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES PUSHING EAST OF THE CREST. SO
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TONIGHT TO DROP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
FOR CLOUDY SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON.
THE LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO THE WA/ID BORDER ON
TUE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY CLIP THE CASCADES FOR MORE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL
BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT
MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 2500 FT FALLING TO 1-2K FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 240357 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STEERING FLOW TURNED WESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES PUSHING EAST OF THE CREST. SO
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TONIGHT TO DROP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
FOR CLOUDY SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON.
THE LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO THE WA/ID BORDER ON
TUE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY CLIP THE CASCADES FOR MORE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL
BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT
MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 2500 FT FALLING TO 1-2K FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 240357 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STEERING FLOW TURNED WESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES PUSHING EAST OF THE CREST. SO
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TONIGHT TO DROP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
FOR CLOUDY SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON.
THE LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO THE WA/ID BORDER ON
TUE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY CLIP THE CASCADES FOR MORE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL
BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT
MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 2500 FT FALLING TO 1-2K FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 240357 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STEERING FLOW TURNED WESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES PUSHING EAST OF THE CREST. SO
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TONIGHT TO DROP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
FOR CLOUDY SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON.
THE LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO THE WA/ID BORDER ON
TUE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY CLIP THE CASCADES FOR MORE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL
BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT
MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 2500 FT FALLING TO 1-2K FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 240317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
817 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA...AS WELL AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNINGS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ENOUGH AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.UPDATE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LOOMING NEAR BY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT.

MODELS SHOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW. THINK
STRATO CU MAY LINGER AROUND..BUT THERE WILL BE MORE POCKETS OF
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MONDAY AND TUES FOR MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY
WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
2000-3500 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL
DETERIORATE TOWARDS PREVAILING MVFR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-17Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY BETWEEN 08Z-16Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z-19Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE BRIEF VFR CIGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY. /27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE
21 KT SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE
B.C. COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
817 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA...AS WELL AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNINGS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ENOUGH AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.UPDATE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LOOMING NEAR BY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT.

MODELS SHOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW. THINK
STRATO CU MAY LINGER AROUND..BUT THERE WILL BE MORE POCKETS OF
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MONDAY AND TUES FOR MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY
WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
2000-3500 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL
DETERIORATE TOWARDS PREVAILING MVFR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-17Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY BETWEEN 08Z-16Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z-19Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE BRIEF VFR CIGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY. /27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE
21 KT SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE
B.C. COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 232200 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED THE AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS CAUSED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATED UP OVER THE N INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES HAS BEEN SLOW STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BY 1 PM HAD STARTED TO FIRE UP E OF THE CREST NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND A RECENT HRRR MODEL IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ONLY BE MINOR ACTIVITY OVER THE N CASCADES NEAR
THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS NW WA...FROM THE LOW OVER
HAIDA GWAII. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SLOWLY E...IT IS TURNING THE MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO SOUTHERLY. IT HAS ALREADY
TURNED THE SHOWERS OVER THE N INTERIOR TO THE NORTH...AND WILL ALSO
PREVENT ANY CELLS OVER THE CASCADES FROM DRIFTING W OVER THE W WA
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE HAIDA GWAII UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN OVER SW B.C. ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA TO WESTERLY
WHICH WILL CONFINE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES TO
THE CREST AND E SLOPES. JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER E WA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF W WA...THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 135W ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MODERATE SW OR WSW ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
W WA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
LOWLANDS FAIRLY DEEP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. AT BEST
THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL LATE AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO
A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS
ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE
70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE
STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL MOVE SE
OVER WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED OVER THE FAR N CASCADES.
MOIST AT ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING...THEN DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
AGAIN LIFT TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAK OUT IS
UNLIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILINGS 2500 FT RISING TO 3000 TO 3500 FT THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS 1-2K FT DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 2500-3500 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAK OUT IS NOT EXPECTED. W WIND 4-7 KT...BECOMING
S-SW 3-5 KT AFTER 06Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHTER FLOW INCLUDING THE STRAIT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 232200 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED THE AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS CAUSED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATED UP OVER THE N INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES HAS BEEN SLOW STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BY 1 PM HAD STARTED TO FIRE UP E OF THE CREST NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND A RECENT HRRR MODEL IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ONLY BE MINOR ACTIVITY OVER THE N CASCADES NEAR
THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS NW WA...FROM THE LOW OVER
HAIDA GWAII. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SLOWLY E...IT IS TURNING THE MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO SOUTHERLY. IT HAS ALREADY
TURNED THE SHOWERS OVER THE N INTERIOR TO THE NORTH...AND WILL ALSO
PREVENT ANY CELLS OVER THE CASCADES FROM DRIFTING W OVER THE W WA
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE HAIDA GWAII UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN OVER SW B.C. ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA TO WESTERLY
WHICH WILL CONFINE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES TO
THE CREST AND E SLOPES. JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER E WA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF W WA...THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 135W ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MODERATE SW OR WSW ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
W WA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
LOWLANDS FAIRLY DEEP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. AT BEST
THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL LATE AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO
A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS
ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE
70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE
STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL MOVE SE
OVER WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED OVER THE FAR N CASCADES.
MOIST AT ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING...THEN DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
AGAIN LIFT TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAK OUT IS
UNLIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILINGS 2500 FT RISING TO 3000 TO 3500 FT THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS 1-2K FT DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 2500-3500 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAK OUT IS NOT EXPECTED. W WIND 4-7 KT...BECOMING
S-SW 3-5 KT AFTER 06Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHTER FLOW INCLUDING THE STRAIT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 232200 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED THE AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS CAUSED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATED UP OVER THE N INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES HAS BEEN SLOW STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BY 1 PM HAD STARTED TO FIRE UP E OF THE CREST NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND A RECENT HRRR MODEL IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ONLY BE MINOR ACTIVITY OVER THE N CASCADES NEAR
THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS NW WA...FROM THE LOW OVER
HAIDA GWAII. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SLOWLY E...IT IS TURNING THE MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO SOUTHERLY. IT HAS ALREADY
TURNED THE SHOWERS OVER THE N INTERIOR TO THE NORTH...AND WILL ALSO
PREVENT ANY CELLS OVER THE CASCADES FROM DRIFTING W OVER THE W WA
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE HAIDA GWAII UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN OVER SW B.C. ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA TO WESTERLY
WHICH WILL CONFINE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES TO
THE CREST AND E SLOPES. JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER E WA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF W WA...THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 135W ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MODERATE SW OR WSW ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
W WA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
LOWLANDS FAIRLY DEEP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. AT BEST
THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL LATE AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO
A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS
ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE
70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE
STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL MOVE SE
OVER WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED OVER THE FAR N CASCADES.
MOIST AT ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING...THEN DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
AGAIN LIFT TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAK OUT IS
UNLIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILINGS 2500 FT RISING TO 3000 TO 3500 FT THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS 1-2K FT DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 2500-3500 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAK OUT IS NOT EXPECTED. W WIND 4-7 KT...BECOMING
S-SW 3-5 KT AFTER 06Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHTER FLOW INCLUDING THE STRAIT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 232200 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED THE AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS CAUSED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATED UP OVER THE N INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES HAS BEEN SLOW STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BY 1 PM HAD STARTED TO FIRE UP E OF THE CREST NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND A RECENT HRRR MODEL IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ONLY BE MINOR ACTIVITY OVER THE N CASCADES NEAR
THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS NW WA...FROM THE LOW OVER
HAIDA GWAII. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SLOWLY E...IT IS TURNING THE MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO SOUTHERLY. IT HAS ALREADY
TURNED THE SHOWERS OVER THE N INTERIOR TO THE NORTH...AND WILL ALSO
PREVENT ANY CELLS OVER THE CASCADES FROM DRIFTING W OVER THE W WA
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE HAIDA GWAII UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN OVER SW B.C. ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA TO WESTERLY
WHICH WILL CONFINE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES TO
THE CREST AND E SLOPES. JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER E WA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF W WA...THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 135W ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MODERATE SW OR WSW ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
W WA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
LOWLANDS FAIRLY DEEP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. AT BEST
THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL LATE AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO
A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS
ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE
70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE
STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL MOVE SE
OVER WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED OVER THE FAR N CASCADES.
MOIST AT ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING...THEN DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
AGAIN LIFT TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAK OUT IS
UNLIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILINGS 2500 FT RISING TO 3000 TO 3500 FT THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS 1-2K FT DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 2500-3500 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAK OUT IS NOT EXPECTED. W WIND 4-7 KT...BECOMING
S-SW 3-5 KT AFTER 06Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHTER FLOW INCLUDING THE STRAIT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 232200 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED THE AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS CAUSED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATED UP OVER THE N INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES HAS BEEN SLOW STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BY 1 PM HAD STARTED TO FIRE UP E OF THE CREST NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND A RECENT HRRR MODEL IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ONLY BE MINOR ACTIVITY OVER THE N CASCADES NEAR
THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS NW WA...FROM THE LOW OVER
HAIDA GWAII. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SLOWLY E...IT IS TURNING THE MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO SOUTHERLY. IT HAS ALREADY
TURNED THE SHOWERS OVER THE N INTERIOR TO THE NORTH...AND WILL ALSO
PREVENT ANY CELLS OVER THE CASCADES FROM DRIFTING W OVER THE W WA
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE HAIDA GWAII UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN OVER SW B.C. ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA TO WESTERLY
WHICH WILL CONFINE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES TO
THE CREST AND E SLOPES. JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER E WA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF W WA...THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 135W ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MODERATE SW OR WSW ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
W WA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
LOWLANDS FAIRLY DEEP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. AT BEST
THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL LATE AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO
A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS
ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE
70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE
STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL MOVE SE
OVER WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED OVER THE FAR N CASCADES.
MOIST AT ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING...THEN DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
AGAIN LIFT TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAK OUT IS
UNLIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILINGS 2500 FT RISING TO 3000 TO 3500 FT THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS 1-2K FT DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 2500-3500 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAK OUT IS NOT EXPECTED. W WIND 4-7 KT...BECOMING
S-SW 3-5 KT AFTER 06Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHTER FLOW INCLUDING THE STRAIT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 232200 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED THE AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS CAUSED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATED UP OVER THE N INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES HAS BEEN SLOW STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BY 1 PM HAD STARTED TO FIRE UP E OF THE CREST NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND A RECENT HRRR MODEL IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ONLY BE MINOR ACTIVITY OVER THE N CASCADES NEAR
THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS NW WA...FROM THE LOW OVER
HAIDA GWAII. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SLOWLY E...IT IS TURNING THE MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO SOUTHERLY. IT HAS ALREADY
TURNED THE SHOWERS OVER THE N INTERIOR TO THE NORTH...AND WILL ALSO
PREVENT ANY CELLS OVER THE CASCADES FROM DRIFTING W OVER THE W WA
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE HAIDA GWAII UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN OVER SW B.C. ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA TO WESTERLY
WHICH WILL CONFINE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES TO
THE CREST AND E SLOPES. JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER E WA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF W WA...THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 135W ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MODERATE SW OR WSW ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
W WA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
LOWLANDS FAIRLY DEEP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. AT BEST
THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL LATE AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO
A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS
ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE
70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE
STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL MOVE SE
OVER WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED OVER THE FAR N CASCADES.
MOIST AT ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING...THEN DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
AGAIN LIFT TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAK OUT IS
UNLIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILINGS 2500 FT RISING TO 3000 TO 3500 FT THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS 1-2K FT DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 2500-3500 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAK OUT IS NOT EXPECTED. W WIND 4-7 KT...BECOMING
S-SW 3-5 KT AFTER 06Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHTER FLOW INCLUDING THE STRAIT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 232151
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS CAUSED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATED UP OVER THE N INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES HAS BEEN SLOW STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BY 1 PM HAD STARTED TO FIRE UP E OF THE CREST NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND A RECENT HRRR MODEL IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ONLY BE MINOR ACTIVITY OVER THE N CASCADES NEAR
THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS NW WA...FROM THE LOW OVER
HAIDA GWAII. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SLOWLY E...IT IS TURNING THE MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO SOUTHERLY. IT HAS ALREADY
TURNED THE SHOWERS OVER THE N INTERIOR TO THE NORTH...AND WILL ALSO
PREVENT ANY CELLS OVER THE CASCADES FROM DRIFTING W OVER THE W WA
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE HAIDA GWAII UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN OVER SW B.C. ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA TO WESTERLY
WHICH WILL CONFINE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES TO
THE CREST AND E SLOPES. JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER E WA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF W WA...THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 135W ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MODERATE SW OR WSW ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
W WA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
LOWLANDS FAIRLY DEEP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. AT BEST
THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL LATE AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO
A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS
ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE
70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE
STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL MOVE SE
OVER WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MOIST AT ALL LEVELS THIS
EVENING...THEN DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAK OUT IS UNLIKELY AT MOST
TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILINGS 2500 FT RISING TO 3000 TO 3500 FT THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS 1-2K FT DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 2500-3500 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAK OUT IS NOT EXPECTED. W WIND 4-7 KT...BECOMING
S-SW 3-5 KT AFTER 06Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHTER FLOW INCLUDING THE STRAIT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 232151
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS CAUSED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATED UP OVER THE N INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES HAS BEEN SLOW STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BY 1 PM HAD STARTED TO FIRE UP E OF THE CREST NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND A RECENT HRRR MODEL IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ONLY BE MINOR ACTIVITY OVER THE N CASCADES NEAR
THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS NW WA...FROM THE LOW OVER
HAIDA GWAII. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SLOWLY E...IT IS TURNING THE MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO SOUTHERLY. IT HAS ALREADY
TURNED THE SHOWERS OVER THE N INTERIOR TO THE NORTH...AND WILL ALSO
PREVENT ANY CELLS OVER THE CASCADES FROM DRIFTING W OVER THE W WA
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE HAIDA GWAII UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN OVER SW B.C. ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA TO WESTERLY
WHICH WILL CONFINE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES TO
THE CREST AND E SLOPES. JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER E WA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF W WA...THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 135W ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MODERATE SW OR WSW ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
W WA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
LOWLANDS FAIRLY DEEP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. AT BEST
THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL LATE AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO
A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS
ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE
70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE
STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL MOVE SE
OVER WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN
THE MARINE LAYER. WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MOIST AT ALL LEVELS THIS
EVENING...THEN DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAK OUT IS UNLIKELY AT MOST
TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILINGS 2500 FT RISING TO 3000 TO 3500 FT THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS 1-2K FT DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 2500-3500 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAK OUT IS NOT EXPECTED. W WIND 4-7 KT...BECOMING
S-SW 3-5 KT AFTER 06Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHTER FLOW INCLUDING THE STRAIT. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KPQR 232129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH WELL INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL
AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY
HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH
AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY WELL
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500 FT. INLAND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT. THE COAST
REMAINS MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF SUN BREAKS ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE BREAKS TO PERSIST FOR LONG.
CONDITIONS INLAND WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR AFTER SUNSET. THE
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5000
FT. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT RETURN AFTER 06Z AND LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH WELL INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL
AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY
HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH
AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY WELL
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500 FT. INLAND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT. THE COAST
REMAINS MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF SUN BREAKS ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE BREAKS TO PERSIST FOR LONG.
CONDITIONS INLAND WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR AFTER SUNSET. THE
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5000
FT. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT RETURN AFTER 06Z AND LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH WELL INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL
AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY
HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH
AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY WELL
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500 FT. INLAND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT. THE COAST
REMAINS MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF SUN BREAKS ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE BREAKS TO PERSIST FOR LONG.
CONDITIONS INLAND WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR AFTER SUNSET. THE
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5000
FT. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT RETURN AFTER 06Z AND LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH WELL INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL
AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY
HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH
AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY WELL
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500 FT. INLAND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT. THE COAST
REMAINS MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF SUN BREAKS ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE BREAKS TO PERSIST FOR LONG.
CONDITIONS INLAND WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR AFTER SUNSET. THE
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5000
FT. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT RETURN AFTER 06Z AND LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH WELL INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL
AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY
HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH
AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY WELL
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500 FT. INLAND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT. THE COAST
REMAINS MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF SUN BREAKS ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE BREAKS TO PERSIST FOR LONG.
CONDITIONS INLAND WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR AFTER SUNSET. THE
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5000
FT. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT RETURN AFTER 06Z AND LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 232126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 232126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 232126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231752
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1052 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: A few minor changes to todays fcst were
made...mainly to adjust sky cover. With the regional mosaic radar
loop showing a band of rain showers that have moved west of
Wenatchee and past the Cascade crest, we anticipate our next
round of pcpn to be diurnally driven as clearing skies work their
way west across the Columbia Basin. These clearing skies will
allow for better insolation and thus help to produce higher SBCAPE
by peak heating this afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave
trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south
across the region by tonight, it looks like it won`t have a
significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in
the Cascade we have for this afternoon. This will be an important
issue this evening and Sunday given the recent burn scar potential
for debris flow. As of now, we don`t anticipate an issues. We also
left thunder in the fcst for SE WA and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle
later today and this evening as the wave approaches and the sfc
remains uncapped. There`s sufficient convective inhibition across
NE Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
threat for today. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  20  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       83  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       84  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  10  20  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  20  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231752
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1052 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: A few minor changes to todays fcst were
made...mainly to adjust sky cover. With the regional mosaic radar
loop showing a band of rain showers that have moved west of
Wenatchee and past the Cascade crest, we anticipate our next
round of pcpn to be diurnally driven as clearing skies work their
way west across the Columbia Basin. These clearing skies will
allow for better insolation and thus help to produce higher SBCAPE
by peak heating this afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave
trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south
across the region by tonight, it looks like it won`t have a
significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in
the Cascade we have for this afternoon. This will be an important
issue this evening and Sunday given the recent burn scar potential
for debris flow. As of now, we don`t anticipate an issues. We also
left thunder in the fcst for SE WA and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle
later today and this evening as the wave approaches and the sfc
remains uncapped. There`s sufficient convective inhibition across
NE Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
threat for today. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  20  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       83  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       84  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  10  20  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  20  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 231652
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
952 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL BE IN CALIFORNIA BY THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS
CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C.
SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON
LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO
SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING
TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWED THE SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST IS ALREADY MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND IT WILL BE WELL INTO CALIFORNIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT HAS REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO
STRONG AND THUS THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING AT ALL
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALSO CONTINUED THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL OREGON INTO
THE CASCADES AND EVEN INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS EARLIER
THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LIGHT ECHOES WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BACKDOOR INTO THE HIGH CASCADES THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. BUT THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE REGION...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS THE LOW
ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL
SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY MVFR WITH CIGS
AROUND 2500 FT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. INLAND CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD TURN VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEY...BUT DUE TO A DEEP MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP. ANY BREAKS THAT DO FORM WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED WITH INLAND CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MVFR
TONIGHT. THE COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUN. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS AND VSBY RETURN TO
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING AND SHOULD TURN VFR AFTER 22Z WITH CIGS AOB 5000 FT. MVFR
CIGS LOOK TO RETURN TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND BRINGS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SPEEDS AS HIGHEST WIND GUSTS STAY SEVERAL KTS
BELOW THE 21 KT CRITERIA. WINDS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...HOWEVER...WILL BRING A CHOPPY FRESH SWELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND LONGER PERIOD WNW SWELL DOMINATES
THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 231608
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
908 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD WITH PARTIAL
AFTERNOON CLEARING ON SOME DAYS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
MID LEVEL E FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CASCADES TO THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATE THIS MORNING BUT
COULD LAST UNTIL NOON. THE DIFFUSE BACK EDGE TO THE AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS JUST CROSSING THE CASCADE CREST AT 830 AM.

A LARGER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST DOWN ACROSS W WA THIS MORNING. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CHANGE THE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM E TO SE THIS
MORNING...TO VARIABLE TO S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE IT LESS
LIKELY THAT CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL MAKE IT W OVER THE LOWLANDS. GFS LIFTED INDICES OVER THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM -1 DOWN BY MT RAINIER TO -4 OVER
THE FAR N PART OF THE CASCADES SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN. THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE JUST E OF THE CREST.

MODELS BRING THE B.C. LOW DOWN OVER THE SW PART OF B.C. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER W WA WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO
W...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE CASCADE
CREST. THIS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT SHOWERS W OF THE CREST AS WELL.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OVER CENTRAL OR EASTERN WA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PUTTING W WA UNDER N FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD EXPOSE W WA
TO ANY SHOWERS OVER B.C. MOVING S IN THE FLOW...BUT AT THIS POINT
THE MODELS ARE NOT REALLY SHOWING ANY PRECIP DEVELOPING.

THE REAL DOMINANT FACTOR IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS NEXT WEEK
IS QUITE BORING AND PRETTY TYPICAL FOR LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALWAYS SHIFTS N TO A POSITION OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NW THIS TIME OF YEAR...PUTTING W WA UNDER A PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. FOR THE NEXT WEEK A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BE PRESENT ALONG ROUGHLY 135W OR ABOUT 500 NM W OF THE WA
COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH THE
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THROUGH MONDAY THE FLOW WILL BE MODERATE AND FROM A SW OR WSW
DIRECTION...WHICH EASILY PUSHES MARINE MOISTURE INLAND AND NORTH
ACROSS PUGET SOUND. SKIES OVER W WA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ONLY SUN BREAKS OR PARTIAL LATE AFTERNOON
CLEARING EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 320 AM AFD...THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. BOTH OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. BEFORE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON VERY
SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON
WITH...WAIT FOR IT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE SO NOT EXPECTING
A HEAT WAVE BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME MORE SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE
INTERIOR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND DIMINISH THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST WILL
MOVE SE OVER WA ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES. MOIST AT ALL LEVELS TODAY...THEN DRYING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES.
A DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER WRN WA TODAY WILL KEEP CEILINGS FIRMLY MVFR
THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z. LOCALIZED IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

KSEA...CEILINGS 1-2K FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN CIGS BY
AROUND 4-5K FT BY 22Z. S-SW WIND 4-8 KT WILL CONTINUE. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DTM/CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT FROM NOON PDT
     TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 231608
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
908 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD WITH PARTIAL
AFTERNOON CLEARING ON SOME DAYS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
MID LEVEL E FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CASCADES TO THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATE THIS MORNING BUT
COULD LAST UNTIL NOON. THE DIFFUSE BACK EDGE TO THE AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS JUST CROSSING THE CASCADE CREST AT 830 AM.

A LARGER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST DOWN ACROSS W WA THIS MORNING. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CHANGE THE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM E TO SE THIS
MORNING...TO VARIABLE TO S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE IT LESS
LIKELY THAT CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL MAKE IT W OVER THE LOWLANDS. GFS LIFTED INDICES OVER THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM -1 DOWN BY MT RAINIER TO -4 OVER
THE FAR N PART OF THE CASCADES SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN. THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE JUST E OF THE CREST.

MODELS BRING THE B.C. LOW DOWN OVER THE SW PART OF B.C. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER W WA WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO
W...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE CASCADE
CREST. THIS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT SHOWERS W OF THE CREST AS WELL.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OVER CENTRAL OR EASTERN WA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PUTTING W WA UNDER N FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD EXPOSE W WA
TO ANY SHOWERS OVER B.C. MOVING S IN THE FLOW...BUT AT THIS POINT
THE MODELS ARE NOT REALLY SHOWING ANY PRECIP DEVELOPING.

THE REAL DOMINANT FACTOR IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS NEXT WEEK
IS QUITE BORING AND PRETTY TYPICAL FOR LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALWAYS SHIFTS N TO A POSITION OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NW THIS TIME OF YEAR...PUTTING W WA UNDER A PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. FOR THE NEXT WEEK A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BE PRESENT ALONG ROUGHLY 135W OR ABOUT 500 NM W OF THE WA
COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH THE
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THROUGH MONDAY THE FLOW WILL BE MODERATE AND FROM A SW OR WSW
DIRECTION...WHICH EASILY PUSHES MARINE MOISTURE INLAND AND NORTH
ACROSS PUGET SOUND. SKIES OVER W WA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ONLY SUN BREAKS OR PARTIAL LATE AFTERNOON
CLEARING EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 320 AM AFD...THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. BOTH OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. BEFORE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON VERY
SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON
WITH...WAIT FOR IT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE SO NOT EXPECTING
A HEAT WAVE BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME MORE SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE
INTERIOR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND DIMINISH THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST WILL
MOVE SE OVER WA ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES. MOIST AT ALL LEVELS TODAY...THEN DRYING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES.
A DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER WRN WA TODAY WILL KEEP CEILINGS FIRMLY MVFR
THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z. LOCALIZED IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

KSEA...CEILINGS 1-2K FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN CIGS BY
AROUND 4-5K FT BY 22Z. S-SW WIND 4-8 KT WILL CONTINUE. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DTM/CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT FROM NOON PDT
     TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KOTX 231601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
901 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: A few minor changes to todays fcst were
made...mainly to adjust sky cover. With the regional mosaic radar
loop showing a band of rain showers that have moved west of
Wenatchee and past the Cascade crest, we anticipate our next
round of pcpn to be diurnally driven as clearing skies work their
way west across the Columbia Basin. These clearing skies will
allow for better insolation and thus help to produce higher SBCAPE
by peak heating this afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave
trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south
across the region by tonight, it looks like it won`t have a
significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in
the Cascade we have for this afternoon. This will be an important
issue this evening and Sunday given the recent burn scar potential
for debris flow. As of now, we don`t anticipate an issues. We also
left thunder in the fcst for SE WA and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle
later today and this evening as the wave approaches and the sfc
remains uncapped. There`s sufficient convective inhibition across
NE Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
threat for today. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  20  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       83  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       84  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
901 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: A few minor changes to todays fcst were
made...mainly to adjust sky cover. With the regional mosaic radar
loop showing a band of rain showers that have moved west of
Wenatchee and past the Cascade crest, we anticipate our next
round of pcpn to be diurnally driven as clearing skies work their
way west across the Columbia Basin. These clearing skies will
allow for better insolation and thus help to produce higher SBCAPE
by peak heating this afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave
trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south
across the region by tonight, it looks like it won`t have a
significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in
the Cascade we have for this afternoon. This will be an important
issue this evening and Sunday given the recent burn scar potential
for debris flow. As of now, we don`t anticipate an issues. We also
left thunder in the fcst for SE WA and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle
later today and this evening as the wave approaches and the sfc
remains uncapped. There`s sufficient convective inhibition across
NE Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
threat for today. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  20  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       83  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       84  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
901 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: A few minor changes to todays fcst were
made...mainly to adjust sky cover. With the regional mosaic radar
loop showing a band of rain showers that have moved west of
Wenatchee and past the Cascade crest, we anticipate our next
round of pcpn to be diurnally driven as clearing skies work their
way west across the Columbia Basin. These clearing skies will
allow for better insolation and thus help to produce higher SBCAPE
by peak heating this afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave
trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south
across the region by tonight, it looks like it won`t have a
significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in
the Cascade we have for this afternoon. This will be an important
issue this evening and Sunday given the recent burn scar potential
for debris flow. As of now, we don`t anticipate an issues. We also
left thunder in the fcst for SE WA and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle
later today and this evening as the wave approaches and the sfc
remains uncapped. There`s sufficient convective inhibition across
NE Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
threat for today. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  20  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       83  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       84  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 231151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 231021
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHORT VERSION OF THE DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW...
CLOUDY SKIES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAS COME TO AN END
BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD IS JUST REACHING
THE CENTRAL CASCADES AT 10Z. WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES AT 3
AM ARE IN A NARROW RANGE...LOWER TO MID 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE GIVING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING THE AIR MASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER IS FAIRLY
DEEP WITH TOPS APPROACHING 5000 FEET THIS MORNING. WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING
EXPECTED. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE ALREADY MADE IT WEST OF THE CREST.
GOOD CHANCE THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE
LOWLANDS BUT WITH THE LOWER LAYER OF THE AIR MASS SO MOIST IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. SAME
STORY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE DAY IS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII TODAY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
TO JUST NORTH OF BELLINGHAM BY 00Z MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING INTACT KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW CONFINED OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON ON MEMORIAL
DAY. IF ANYTHING THIS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. WITH
WESTERN WASHINGTON BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE CASCADES. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING. BOTH OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH...WAIT FOR IT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS ONSHORE SO NOT EXPECTING A HEAT WAVE BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND SOME MORE SUN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE INTERIOR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN BECOME
WESTERLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. DEEP
MARINE LAYER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL KEEP CEILINGS FIRMLY MVFR
THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z.

KSEA...CEILINGS 1-2K FT THIS MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KT WILL CONTINUE. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 231021
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHORT VERSION OF THE DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW...
CLOUDY SKIES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAS COME TO AN END
BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD IS JUST REACHING
THE CENTRAL CASCADES AT 10Z. WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES AT 3
AM ARE IN A NARROW RANGE...LOWER TO MID 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE GIVING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING THE AIR MASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER IS FAIRLY
DEEP WITH TOPS APPROACHING 5000 FEET THIS MORNING. WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING
EXPECTED. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE ALREADY MADE IT WEST OF THE CREST.
GOOD CHANCE THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE
LOWLANDS BUT WITH THE LOWER LAYER OF THE AIR MASS SO MOIST IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. SAME
STORY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE DAY IS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII TODAY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
TO JUST NORTH OF BELLINGHAM BY 00Z MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING INTACT KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW CONFINED OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON ON MEMORIAL
DAY. IF ANYTHING THIS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. WITH
WESTERN WASHINGTON BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE CASCADES. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING. BOTH OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH...WAIT FOR IT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS ONSHORE SO NOT EXPECTING A HEAT WAVE BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND SOME MORE SUN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE INTERIOR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN BECOME
WESTERLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. DEEP
MARINE LAYER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL KEEP CEILINGS FIRMLY MVFR
THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z.

KSEA...CEILINGS 1-2K FT THIS MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KT WILL CONTINUE. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 231021
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHORT VERSION OF THE DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW...
CLOUDY SKIES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAS COME TO AN END
BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD IS JUST REACHING
THE CENTRAL CASCADES AT 10Z. WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES AT 3
AM ARE IN A NARROW RANGE...LOWER TO MID 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE GIVING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING THE AIR MASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER IS FAIRLY
DEEP WITH TOPS APPROACHING 5000 FEET THIS MORNING. WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING
EXPECTED. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE ALREADY MADE IT WEST OF THE CREST.
GOOD CHANCE THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE
LOWLANDS BUT WITH THE LOWER LAYER OF THE AIR MASS SO MOIST IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. SAME
STORY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE DAY IS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII TODAY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
TO JUST NORTH OF BELLINGHAM BY 00Z MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING INTACT KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW CONFINED OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON ON MEMORIAL
DAY. IF ANYTHING THIS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. WITH
WESTERN WASHINGTON BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE CASCADES. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING. BOTH OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH...WAIT FOR IT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS ONSHORE SO NOT EXPECTING A HEAT WAVE BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND SOME MORE SUN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE INTERIOR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN BECOME
WESTERLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. DEEP
MARINE LAYER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL KEEP CEILINGS FIRMLY MVFR
THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z.

KSEA...CEILINGS 1-2K FT THIS MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KT WILL CONTINUE. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 231021
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHORT VERSION OF THE DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW...
CLOUDY SKIES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAS COME TO AN END
BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD IS JUST REACHING
THE CENTRAL CASCADES AT 10Z. WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES AT 3
AM ARE IN A NARROW RANGE...LOWER TO MID 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE GIVING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING THE AIR MASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER IS FAIRLY
DEEP WITH TOPS APPROACHING 5000 FEET THIS MORNING. WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING
EXPECTED. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE ALREADY MADE IT WEST OF THE CREST.
GOOD CHANCE THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE
LOWLANDS BUT WITH THE LOWER LAYER OF THE AIR MASS SO MOIST IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. SAME
STORY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE DAY IS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII TODAY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
TO JUST NORTH OF BELLINGHAM BY 00Z MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING INTACT KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW CONFINED OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON ON MEMORIAL
DAY. IF ANYTHING THIS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. WITH
WESTERN WASHINGTON BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE CASCADES. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING. BOTH OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH...WAIT FOR IT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS ONSHORE SO NOT EXPECTING A HEAT WAVE BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND SOME MORE SUN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE INTERIOR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN BECOME
WESTERLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. DEEP
MARINE LAYER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL KEEP CEILINGS FIRMLY MVFR
THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z.

KSEA...CEILINGS 1-2K FT THIS MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KT WILL CONTINUE. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 230958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 230958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 230958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 230958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230940
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
240 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. A LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SHOWED MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS WELL
INLAND OVER ID AND EASTERN NV. RADAR SHOWED SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED
TO SPREAD W AS FAR AS THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED IN PART
BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING S DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THIS
LOW MOVES S THE UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE NW AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO SPREAD SO FAR W. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...THEN LIMIT THEIR CHANCES TO
THE CASCADES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS IN
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ESP IN THE
S. THE MARINE AIR AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMALS OR
A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH MON. A CHANCE FOR MORNING
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AND MAY SPREAD INLAND SUN AND MON MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW CENTER DROPS S INTO WA BY MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO
BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A SPREAD OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
HOUR. SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LINE RUNNING JUST NORTH OF A KEUG-KONP
LINE AND MOVING SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FEEL INLAND CIGS
WILL LARGELY HOVER BETWEEN 025 AND 035 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING TO BETWEEN 035 AND 050 FOR THE EVENING. MAY SEE THE
STRATUS GO SCATTERED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT STRONGLY AGAINST GUIDANCE. EVEN IF IT
DOES...FEEL THE CIGS WILL CLOSE BACK UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AROUND 345Z. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE ON THEIR WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THOUGH KAST IS
TAKING THE LONGEST TO DROP AD HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THAT LOW YET.
THE COASTAL STRATUS OPTIMISTICALLY MAY BREAK UP A BIT AND LIFT
BACK TO 020-025 BUT WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO THE 015 AGL MARK AS A
PRELIMINARY THOUGH FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 025 AND 035 WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 19Z. FEEL CIGS
WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE ABOVE THE 040 VISUAL APPROACH
THRESHOLD FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT BEST. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
INLAND BRINGS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SPEEDS AS HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS STAY SEVERAL KTS BELOW THE 21 KT CRITERIA. WINDS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...HOWEVER...WILL BRING A CHOPPY FRESH
SWELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND LONGER
PERIOD WNW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230940
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
240 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. A LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SHOWED MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS WELL
INLAND OVER ID AND EASTERN NV. RADAR SHOWED SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED
TO SPREAD W AS FAR AS THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED IN PART
BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING S DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THIS
LOW MOVES S THE UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE NW AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO SPREAD SO FAR W. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...THEN LIMIT THEIR CHANCES TO
THE CASCADES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS IN
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ESP IN THE
S. THE MARINE AIR AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMALS OR
A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH MON. A CHANCE FOR MORNING
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AND MAY SPREAD INLAND SUN AND MON MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW CENTER DROPS S INTO WA BY MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO
BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A SPREAD OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
HOUR. SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LINE RUNNING JUST NORTH OF A KEUG-KONP
LINE AND MOVING SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FEEL INLAND CIGS
WILL LARGELY HOVER BETWEEN 025 AND 035 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING TO BETWEEN 035 AND 050 FOR THE EVENING. MAY SEE THE
STRATUS GO SCATTERED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT STRONGLY AGAINST GUIDANCE. EVEN IF IT
DOES...FEEL THE CIGS WILL CLOSE BACK UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AROUND 345Z. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE ON THEIR WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THOUGH KAST IS
TAKING THE LONGEST TO DROP AD HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THAT LOW YET.
THE COASTAL STRATUS OPTIMISTICALLY MAY BREAK UP A BIT AND LIFT
BACK TO 020-025 BUT WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO THE 015 AGL MARK AS A
PRELIMINARY THOUGH FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 025 AND 035 WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 19Z. FEEL CIGS
WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE ABOVE THE 040 VISUAL APPROACH
THRESHOLD FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT BEST. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
INLAND BRINGS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SPEEDS AS HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS STAY SEVERAL KTS BELOW THE 21 KT CRITERIA. WINDS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...HOWEVER...WILL BRING A CHOPPY FRESH
SWELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND LONGER
PERIOD WNW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230940
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
240 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. A LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SHOWED MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS WELL
INLAND OVER ID AND EASTERN NV. RADAR SHOWED SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED
TO SPREAD W AS FAR AS THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED IN PART
BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING S DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THIS
LOW MOVES S THE UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE NW AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO SPREAD SO FAR W. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...THEN LIMIT THEIR CHANCES TO
THE CASCADES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS IN
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ESP IN THE
S. THE MARINE AIR AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMALS OR
A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH MON. A CHANCE FOR MORNING
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AND MAY SPREAD INLAND SUN AND MON MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW CENTER DROPS S INTO WA BY MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO
BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A SPREAD OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
HOUR. SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LINE RUNNING JUST NORTH OF A KEUG-KONP
LINE AND MOVING SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FEEL INLAND CIGS
WILL LARGELY HOVER BETWEEN 025 AND 035 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING TO BETWEEN 035 AND 050 FOR THE EVENING. MAY SEE THE
STRATUS GO SCATTERED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT STRONGLY AGAINST GUIDANCE. EVEN IF IT
DOES...FEEL THE CIGS WILL CLOSE BACK UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AROUND 345Z. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE ON THEIR WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THOUGH KAST IS
TAKING THE LONGEST TO DROP AD HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THAT LOW YET.
THE COASTAL STRATUS OPTIMISTICALLY MAY BREAK UP A BIT AND LIFT
BACK TO 020-025 BUT WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO THE 015 AGL MARK AS A
PRELIMINARY THOUGH FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 025 AND 035 WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 19Z. FEEL CIGS
WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE ABOVE THE 040 VISUAL APPROACH
THRESHOLD FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT BEST. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
INLAND BRINGS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SPEEDS AS HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS STAY SEVERAL KTS BELOW THE 21 KT CRITERIA. WINDS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...HOWEVER...WILL BRING A CHOPPY FRESH
SWELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND LONGER
PERIOD WNW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230940
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
240 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. A LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SHOWED MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS WELL
INLAND OVER ID AND EASTERN NV. RADAR SHOWED SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED
TO SPREAD W AS FAR AS THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED IN PART
BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING S DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THIS
LOW MOVES S THE UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE NW AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO SPREAD SO FAR W. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...THEN LIMIT THEIR CHANCES TO
THE CASCADES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS IN
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ESP IN THE
S. THE MARINE AIR AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMALS OR
A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH MON. A CHANCE FOR MORNING
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AND MAY SPREAD INLAND SUN AND MON MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW CENTER DROPS S INTO WA BY MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO
BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A SPREAD OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
HOUR. SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LINE RUNNING JUST NORTH OF A KEUG-KONP
LINE AND MOVING SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FEEL INLAND CIGS
WILL LARGELY HOVER BETWEEN 025 AND 035 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING TO BETWEEN 035 AND 050 FOR THE EVENING. MAY SEE THE
STRATUS GO SCATTERED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT STRONGLY AGAINST GUIDANCE. EVEN IF IT
DOES...FEEL THE CIGS WILL CLOSE BACK UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AROUND 345Z. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE ON THEIR WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THOUGH KAST IS
TAKING THE LONGEST TO DROP AD HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THAT LOW YET.
THE COASTAL STRATUS OPTIMISTICALLY MAY BREAK UP A BIT AND LIFT
BACK TO 020-025 BUT WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO THE 015 AGL MARK AS A
PRELIMINARY THOUGH FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 025 AND 035 WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 19Z. FEEL CIGS
WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE ABOVE THE 040 VISUAL APPROACH
THRESHOLD FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT BEST. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
INLAND BRINGS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SPEEDS AS HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS STAY SEVERAL KTS BELOW THE 21 KT CRITERIA. WINDS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...HOWEVER...WILL BRING A CHOPPY FRESH
SWELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND LONGER
PERIOD WNW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Additional update made this evening to remove the mention of
thunderstorms as the activity has moved southwest and out of the
forecast area. Also increased cloud cover as the mid and high
clouds associated with the ongoing convection that moved out of
the area is still spilling out to the northeast and over a good
portion of Eastern Washington and Southern Parts of the North
Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Additional update made this evening to remove the mention of
thunderstorms as the activity has moved southwest and out of the
forecast area. Also increased cloud cover as the mid and high
clouds associated with the ongoing convection that moved out of
the area is still spilling out to the northeast and over a good
portion of Eastern Washington and Southern Parts of the North
Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 230352
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE SW INTERIOR AND LOWER CHEHALIS
VALLEY. POPS AND WEATHER WERE UPDATED IN THE FORECAST ZONES BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
ON SATURDAY WHILE WEAK LOW PRES FORMS OVER S/SE B.C. NEAR HAIDA
GWAII. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES ONCE AGAIN. THE LOWLANDS WILL BE
DRY ALTHOUGH STILL CLOUDY AND COOL UNDER THE STRATUS LAYER. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY WITH SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW E ON TUESDAY WITH N FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD
END ANY THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND PROBABLY THE CASCADES
AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN THE
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THE
FLOW COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A BIT MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE. DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL KEEP
CEILINGS FIRMLY MVFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CEILINGS 2K FT THIS EVENING WILL REACH AS LOW AS 1K FT
OVERNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WIND 4-8 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 230352
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE SW INTERIOR AND LOWER CHEHALIS
VALLEY. POPS AND WEATHER WERE UPDATED IN THE FORECAST ZONES BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
ON SATURDAY WHILE WEAK LOW PRES FORMS OVER S/SE B.C. NEAR HAIDA
GWAII. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES ONCE AGAIN. THE LOWLANDS WILL BE
DRY ALTHOUGH STILL CLOUDY AND COOL UNDER THE STRATUS LAYER. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY WITH SHOWERS AGAIN MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW E ON TUESDAY WITH N FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD
END ANY THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND PROBABLY THE CASCADES
AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN THE
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THE
FLOW COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A BIT MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE. DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL KEEP
CEILINGS FIRMLY MVFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CEILINGS 2K FT THIS EVENING WILL REACH AS LOW AS 1K FT
OVERNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WIND 4-8 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 230323
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
823 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE OREGON
COAST...AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AND DECREASING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES AND EXPECT
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT 20Z
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A THIRD BUT
MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON COAST. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH. BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. MOSTLY A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING... THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 05Z-07Z SAT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z-19Z SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z...WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE
AFTERWARDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z-17Z SATURDAY.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230323
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
823 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE OREGON
COAST...AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AND DECREASING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES AND EXPECT
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT 20Z
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A THIRD BUT
MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON COAST. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH. BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. MOSTLY A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING... THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 05Z-07Z SAT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z-19Z SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z...WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE
AFTERWARDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z-17Z SATURDAY.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230323
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
823 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE OREGON
COAST...AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AND DECREASING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES AND EXPECT
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT 20Z
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A THIRD BUT
MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON COAST. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH. BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. MOSTLY A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING... THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 05Z-07Z SAT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z-19Z SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z...WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE
AFTERWARDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z-17Z SATURDAY.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230323
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
823 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE OREGON
COAST...AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AND DECREASING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES AND EXPECT
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT 20Z
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A THIRD BUT
MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON COAST. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH. BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. MOSTLY A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING... THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 05Z-07Z SAT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z-19Z SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z...WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE
AFTERWARDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z-17Z SATURDAY.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 222222
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
322 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE NE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOING ITS
DOMINANT THING FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SW SO LOW LEVEL MARINE MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN EASIER
TIME SPREADING INLAND UP THROUGH PUGET SOUND. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL MAY
RANGES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FROM DAY-TO-DAY BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH AND WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO HANG ON TO THE CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE WEST PART.

THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES HEADED VERY SLOWLY IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE LOWLANDS...AND SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS MOVING N AND
CROSSING THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ZONES. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
LOWLANDS...BUT I WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND EXPAND THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MORE OF THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT OVER W WA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO
SW OVER THE COAST AND S OVER THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE
TO RESTRICT CONVECTION TO THE CASCADES RATHER THAN HAVE CELLS
DRIFTING W OVER THE LOWLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C.
COAST TODAY WILL DROP DOWN OVER SW B.C. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO W OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST.

THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW SE OVER E WA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
18Z GFS DROPS IT DOWN OVER W WA. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF SO IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS REGARDING WHERE THE LOW GOES. THE ECMWF TRACK SHOULD
KEEP MOST SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
DRY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MORE OF THE
LOWLANDS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. GFS MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW E ON TUESDAY WITH N
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND PROBABLY THE CASCADES AS WELL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THE FLOW COULD
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A BIT MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PAC NW THRU THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 0300 UTC.

MEANWHILE...CIGS MAINLY IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE BLANKETED MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER WAS QUITE DEEP /TOPS
WERE RUNNING 5500 TO 6 FT/...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH /IF ANY/
IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR CIGS /500-1K FT/
AND VSBYS 3-5SM MAINLY OVER THE COAST. THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES
WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCD.

KSEA...CIGS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3K RANGE THE REST OF TODAY...AND
WILL LOWER INTO THE 1-2K FT RANGE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THRU SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES INLAND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THROUGH NEXT WED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$















000
FXUS66 KSEW 222222
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
322 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE NE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOING ITS
DOMINANT THING FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SW SO LOW LEVEL MARINE MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN EASIER
TIME SPREADING INLAND UP THROUGH PUGET SOUND. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL MAY
RANGES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FROM DAY-TO-DAY BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH AND WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO HANG ON TO THE CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE WEST PART.

THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES HEADED VERY SLOWLY IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE LOWLANDS...AND SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS MOVING N AND
CROSSING THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ZONES. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
LOWLANDS...BUT I WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND EXPAND THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MORE OF THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT OVER W WA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO
SW OVER THE COAST AND S OVER THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE
TO RESTRICT CONVECTION TO THE CASCADES RATHER THAN HAVE CELLS
DRIFTING W OVER THE LOWLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C.
COAST TODAY WILL DROP DOWN OVER SW B.C. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO W OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST.

THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW SE OVER E WA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
18Z GFS DROPS IT DOWN OVER W WA. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF SO IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS REGARDING WHERE THE LOW GOES. THE ECMWF TRACK SHOULD
KEEP MOST SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
DRY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MORE OF THE
LOWLANDS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. GFS MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW E ON TUESDAY WITH N
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND PROBABLY THE CASCADES AS WELL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THE FLOW COULD
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A BIT MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PAC NW THRU THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 0300 UTC.

MEANWHILE...CIGS MAINLY IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE BLANKETED MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER WAS QUITE DEEP /TOPS
WERE RUNNING 5500 TO 6 FT/...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH /IF ANY/
IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR CIGS /500-1K FT/
AND VSBYS 3-5SM MAINLY OVER THE COAST. THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES
WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCD.

KSEA...CIGS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3K RANGE THE REST OF TODAY...AND
WILL LOWER INTO THE 1-2K FT RANGE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THRU SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES INLAND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THROUGH NEXT WED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$
















000
FXUS66 KSEW 222222
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
322 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE NE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOING ITS
DOMINANT THING FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SW SO LOW LEVEL MARINE MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN EASIER
TIME SPREADING INLAND UP THROUGH PUGET SOUND. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL MAY
RANGES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FROM DAY-TO-DAY BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH AND WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO HANG ON TO THE CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE WEST PART.

THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES HEADED VERY SLOWLY IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE LOWLANDS...AND SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS MOVING N AND
CROSSING THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ZONES. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
LOWLANDS...BUT I WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND EXPAND THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MORE OF THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT OVER W WA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO
SW OVER THE COAST AND S OVER THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE
TO RESTRICT CONVECTION TO THE CASCADES RATHER THAN HAVE CELLS
DRIFTING W OVER THE LOWLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C.
COAST TODAY WILL DROP DOWN OVER SW B.C. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO W OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST.

THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW SE OVER E WA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
18Z GFS DROPS IT DOWN OVER W WA. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF SO IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS REGARDING WHERE THE LOW GOES. THE ECMWF TRACK SHOULD
KEEP MOST SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
DRY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MORE OF THE
LOWLANDS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. GFS MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW E ON TUESDAY WITH N
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND PROBABLY THE CASCADES AS WELL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THE FLOW COULD
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A BIT MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PAC NW THRU THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 0300 UTC.

MEANWHILE...CIGS MAINLY IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE BLANKETED MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER WAS QUITE DEEP /TOPS
WERE RUNNING 5500 TO 6 FT/...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH /IF ANY/
IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR CIGS /500-1K FT/
AND VSBYS 3-5SM MAINLY OVER THE COAST. THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES
WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCD.

KSEA...CIGS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3K RANGE THE REST OF TODAY...AND
WILL LOWER INTO THE 1-2K FT RANGE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THRU SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES INLAND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THROUGH NEXT WED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$
















000
FXUS66 KSEW 222222
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
322 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE NE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOING ITS
DOMINANT THING FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SW SO LOW LEVEL MARINE MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN EASIER
TIME SPREADING INLAND UP THROUGH PUGET SOUND. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL MAY
RANGES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FROM DAY-TO-DAY BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH AND WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO HANG ON TO THE CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE WEST PART.

THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES HEADED VERY SLOWLY IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE LOWLANDS...AND SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS MOVING N AND
CROSSING THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ZONES. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
LOWLANDS...BUT I WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND EXPAND THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MORE OF THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT OVER W WA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO
SW OVER THE COAST AND S OVER THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE
TO RESTRICT CONVECTION TO THE CASCADES RATHER THAN HAVE CELLS
DRIFTING W OVER THE LOWLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C.
COAST TODAY WILL DROP DOWN OVER SW B.C. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO W OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST.

THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW SE OVER E WA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
18Z GFS DROPS IT DOWN OVER W WA. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF SO IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS REGARDING WHERE THE LOW GOES. THE ECMWF TRACK SHOULD
KEEP MOST SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
DRY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MORE OF THE
LOWLANDS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. GFS MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW E ON TUESDAY WITH N
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND PROBABLY THE CASCADES AS WELL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THE FLOW COULD
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A BIT MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PAC NW THRU THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 0300 UTC.

MEANWHILE...CIGS MAINLY IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE BLANKETED MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER WAS QUITE DEEP /TOPS
WERE RUNNING 5500 TO 6 FT/...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH /IF ANY/
IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR CIGS /500-1K FT/
AND VSBYS 3-5SM MAINLY OVER THE COAST. THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES
WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCD.

KSEA...CIGS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3K RANGE THE REST OF TODAY...AND
WILL LOWER INTO THE 1-2K FT RANGE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THRU SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES INLAND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THROUGH NEXT WED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$
















000
FXUS66 KSEW 222222
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
322 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE NE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOING ITS
DOMINANT THING FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SW SO LOW LEVEL MARINE MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN EASIER
TIME SPREADING INLAND UP THROUGH PUGET SOUND. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL MAY
RANGES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FROM DAY-TO-DAY BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH AND WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO HANG ON TO THE CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE WEST PART.

THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES HEADED VERY SLOWLY IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE LOWLANDS...AND SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS MOVING N AND
CROSSING THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ZONES. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
LOWLANDS...BUT I WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND EXPAND THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MORE OF THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT OVER W WA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO
SW OVER THE COAST AND S OVER THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE
TO RESTRICT CONVECTION TO THE CASCADES RATHER THAN HAVE CELLS
DRIFTING W OVER THE LOWLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C.
COAST TODAY WILL DROP DOWN OVER SW B.C. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO W OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST.

THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW SE OVER E WA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
18Z GFS DROPS IT DOWN OVER W WA. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF SO IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS REGARDING WHERE THE LOW GOES. THE ECMWF TRACK SHOULD
KEEP MOST SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
DRY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MORE OF THE
LOWLANDS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. GFS MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW E ON TUESDAY WITH N
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND PROBABLY THE CASCADES AS WELL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THE FLOW COULD
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A BIT MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PAC NW THRU THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 0300 UTC.

MEANWHILE...CIGS MAINLY IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE BLANKETED MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER WAS QUITE DEEP /TOPS
WERE RUNNING 5500 TO 6 FT/...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH /IF ANY/
IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR CIGS /500-1K FT/
AND VSBYS 3-5SM MAINLY OVER THE COAST. THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES
WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCD.

KSEA...CIGS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3K RANGE THE REST OF TODAY...AND
WILL LOWER INTO THE 1-2K FT RANGE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THRU SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES INLAND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THROUGH NEXT WED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$
















000
FXUS66 KSEW 222222
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
322 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE NE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOING ITS
DOMINANT THING FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SW SO LOW LEVEL MARINE MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN EASIER
TIME SPREADING INLAND UP THROUGH PUGET SOUND. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL MAY
RANGES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE VARYING DEGREES OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FROM DAY-TO-DAY BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH AND WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO HANG ON TO THE CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE WEST PART.

THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES HEADED VERY SLOWLY IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE LOWLANDS...AND SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS MOVING N AND
CROSSING THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ZONES. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
LOWLANDS...BUT I WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND EXPAND THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MORE OF THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT OVER W WA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA FROM E-SE TO
SW OVER THE COAST AND S OVER THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE
TO RESTRICT CONVECTION TO THE CASCADES RATHER THAN HAVE CELLS
DRIFTING W OVER THE LOWLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.C.
COAST TODAY WILL DROP DOWN OVER SW B.C. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO W OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE CREST.

THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW SE OVER E WA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
18Z GFS DROPS IT DOWN OVER W WA. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF SO IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS REGARDING WHERE THE LOW GOES. THE ECMWF TRACK SHOULD
KEEP MOST SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
DRY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MORE OF THE
LOWLANDS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. GFS MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW E ON TUESDAY WITH N
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND PROBABLY THE CASCADES AS WELL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THE FLOW COULD
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A BIT MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PAC NW THRU THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 0300 UTC.

MEANWHILE...CIGS MAINLY IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE BLANKETED MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER WAS QUITE DEEP /TOPS
WERE RUNNING 5500 TO 6 FT/...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH /IF ANY/
IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR CIGS /500-1K FT/
AND VSBYS 3-5SM MAINLY OVER THE COAST. THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES
WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCD.

KSEA...CIGS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3K RANGE THE REST OF TODAY...AND
WILL LOWER INTO THE 1-2K FT RANGE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THRU SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES INLAND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THROUGH NEXT WED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$
















000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. AT 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A
THIRD BUT MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON
COAST. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH.
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MVFR...WITH SOME HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HINTS OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS SUCH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR. ANY VFR CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. AT 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A
THIRD BUT MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON
COAST. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH.
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MVFR...WITH SOME HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HINTS OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS SUCH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR. ANY VFR CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. AT 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A
THIRD BUT MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON
COAST. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH.
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MVFR...WITH SOME HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HINTS OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS SUCH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR. ANY VFR CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. AT 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A
THIRD BUT MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON
COAST. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH.
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MVFR...WITH SOME HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HINTS OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS SUCH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR. ANY VFR CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 221750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 221750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221633
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
932 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT EAST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE N
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1530Z SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE RESIDUAL ECHO COVERAGE FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
STRONGEST RETURNS WERE OVER THE HIGHER N OREGON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 5 AND THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE IN THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
COL REGION. EAST FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN OREGON...S-SW FLOW ALOFT OVER
NRN OREGON AND SW WA AND A DILLITATION AXIS IN THE MIDDLE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATION WITHIN THIS
ZONE...WHILE INFRA-RED IMAGERY INDICATES THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.
BASED ON 15Z OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING FOR THE CASCADE ZONES AND
PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

MAIN SHORT-TERM CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR THE CASCADES NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THE NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS THE BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE
CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM INDICATES
NEARLY 300 J/KG CAPE AT 18Z...BUT NEAR 0 BY 00Z SAT. BELIEVE A
GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
STABILIZE THE AIR MASS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR THE CASCADES FROM 18Z TO 21Z TODAY THEN REMOVED ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
CLEARING TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE OREGON COAST RANGE TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 5.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR NEAR 48N 128W
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. HI-RES WRF-ARW ACTUALLY SHOWS A BIT MORE CLEARING SAT
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MVFR UNDER
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 22Z. LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LIFT
AND BREAK SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL INLAND
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER 09Z AS
MARINE STRATUS FILTERS INLAND AGAIN.

LOW-END MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOLID MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR TO
HIGH-END IFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR
AFTER 20Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO RETURN AFTER 09Z AS MARINE STRATUS FILTERS INLAND AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH PRES WELL
OFFSHORE. MIXED SEAS WITH A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221633
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
932 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT EAST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE N
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1530Z SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE RESIDUAL ECHO COVERAGE FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
STRONGEST RETURNS WERE OVER THE HIGHER N OREGON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 5 AND THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE IN THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
COL REGION. EAST FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN OREGON...S-SW FLOW ALOFT OVER
NRN OREGON AND SW WA AND A DILLITATION AXIS IN THE MIDDLE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATION WITHIN THIS
ZONE...WHILE INFRA-RED IMAGERY INDICATES THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.
BASED ON 15Z OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING FOR THE CASCADE ZONES AND
PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

MAIN SHORT-TERM CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR THE CASCADES NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THE NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS THE BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE
CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM INDICATES
NEARLY 300 J/KG CAPE AT 18Z...BUT NEAR 0 BY 00Z SAT. BELIEVE A
GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
STABILIZE THE AIR MASS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR THE CASCADES FROM 18Z TO 21Z TODAY THEN REMOVED ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
CLEARING TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE OREGON COAST RANGE TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 5.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR NEAR 48N 128W
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. HI-RES WRF-ARW ACTUALLY SHOWS A BIT MORE CLEARING SAT
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MVFR UNDER
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 22Z. LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LIFT
AND BREAK SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL INLAND
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER 09Z AS
MARINE STRATUS FILTERS INLAND AGAIN.

LOW-END MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOLID MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR TO
HIGH-END IFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR
AFTER 20Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO RETURN AFTER 09Z AS MARINE STRATUS FILTERS INLAND AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH PRES WELL
OFFSHORE. MIXED SEAS WITH A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 221625
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE NE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOING ITS
DOMINANT THING FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. THIS MORNING THE HIGH IS CENTERED OUT
ALONG 135W TO 140W AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUD BASES WERE AROUND 1000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
TOPS AROUND 3000 FEET. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALL DAY SO
LITTLE IF ANY BREAKOUT IS EXPECTED.

THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS UNSTABLE AND E FLOW HAS ALLOWED SOME SHOWERS
TO DRIFT OUT OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAINLY S OF PUGET SOUND...AS
WELL AS OVER THE OLYMPICS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME PERSISTENT SPORADIC
LIGHTNING AROUND SHELTON. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS. THE
HRRR STILL SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE CASCADES
AND OLYMPICS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
POINT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY FORECAST FOR AROUND THE CASCADE
CREST. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKLY SE SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CELLS COULD DRIFT W OVER THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WANDERING THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE LOWLANDS E OF PUGET SOUND.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTING INLAND OVER W WA ON SATURDAY. THE
TROUGH SLIDES OVER E WA ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW MOVES SE OVER W WA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALOFT INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THERE IS PROBABLY A VERY LOW NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OLYMPICS. DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN THE MID LEVEL
STEERING FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY CELLS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
LOWLANDS. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 320 AM AFD...THE GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE EACH DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...WRN WA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WRN BRITISH COLUMBIA THRU
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CONTD LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW TSTMS OVER MAINLY THE MTNS. THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD END
AFTER 0300 UTC.

MEANWHILE...CIGS MAINLY AOB 1K FT BLANKETED MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS
THIS MORNING. TOPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE.
THERE WERE ALSO AREAS OF 4-6SM /DUE TO FOG/ OVER THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD DSIPT BY 2000 UTC. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE DAY. BY 0000 UTC...CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY /1-3K FT/ RANGE OR BETTER.

KSEA...CIGS WILL LIFT INTO THE 2-3K FT RANGE AFTER 1900 UTC...AND
ARE ANTICIPATED BE NEAR 3500 FT BY 0000 UTC. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO
THE 1-2K FT RANGE AFTER 0600 UTC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW 5-10
KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEST COMPONENT OF THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY CONFIDENT
THAT SPEEDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER PARTS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA THIS EVENING. WILL RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION THIS
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH
THROUGH TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
     EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$













000
FXUS66 KSEW 221625
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE NE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOING ITS
DOMINANT THING FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. THIS MORNING THE HIGH IS CENTERED OUT
ALONG 135W TO 140W AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUD BASES WERE AROUND 1000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
TOPS AROUND 3000 FEET. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALL DAY SO
LITTLE IF ANY BREAKOUT IS EXPECTED.

THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS UNSTABLE AND E FLOW HAS ALLOWED SOME SHOWERS
TO DRIFT OUT OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAINLY S OF PUGET SOUND...AS
WELL AS OVER THE OLYMPICS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME PERSISTENT SPORADIC
LIGHTNING AROUND SHELTON. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS. THE
HRRR STILL SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE CASCADES
AND OLYMPICS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
POINT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY FORECAST FOR AROUND THE CASCADE
CREST. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKLY SE SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CELLS COULD DRIFT W OVER THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WANDERING THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE LOWLANDS E OF PUGET SOUND.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTING INLAND OVER W WA ON SATURDAY. THE
TROUGH SLIDES OVER E WA ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW MOVES SE OVER W WA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALOFT INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THERE IS PROBABLY A VERY LOW NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OLYMPICS. DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN THE MID LEVEL
STEERING FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY CELLS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
LOWLANDS. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 320 AM AFD...THE GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE EACH DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...WRN WA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WRN BRITISH COLUMBIA THRU
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CONTD LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW TSTMS OVER MAINLY THE MTNS. THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD END
AFTER 0300 UTC.

MEANWHILE...CIGS MAINLY AOB 1K FT BLANKETED MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS
THIS MORNING. TOPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE.
THERE WERE ALSO AREAS OF 4-6SM /DUE TO FOG/ OVER THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD DSIPT BY 2000 UTC. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE DAY. BY 0000 UTC...CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY /1-3K FT/ RANGE OR BETTER.

KSEA...CIGS WILL LIFT INTO THE 2-3K FT RANGE AFTER 1900 UTC...AND
ARE ANTICIPATED BE NEAR 3500 FT BY 0000 UTC. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO
THE 1-2K FT RANGE AFTER 0600 UTC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW 5-10
KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEST COMPONENT OF THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY CONFIDENT
THAT SPEEDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER PARTS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA THIS EVENING. WILL RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION THIS
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH
THROUGH TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
     EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$












000
FXUS66 KSEW 221625
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE NE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOING ITS
DOMINANT THING FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. THIS MORNING THE HIGH IS CENTERED OUT
ALONG 135W TO 140W AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUD BASES WERE AROUND 1000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
TOPS AROUND 3000 FEET. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALL DAY SO
LITTLE IF ANY BREAKOUT IS EXPECTED.

THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS UNSTABLE AND E FLOW HAS ALLOWED SOME SHOWERS
TO DRIFT OUT OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAINLY S OF PUGET SOUND...AS
WELL AS OVER THE OLYMPICS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME PERSISTENT SPORADIC
LIGHTNING AROUND SHELTON. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS. THE
HRRR STILL SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE CASCADES
AND OLYMPICS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
POINT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY FORECAST FOR AROUND THE CASCADE
CREST. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKLY SE SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CELLS COULD DRIFT W OVER THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WANDERING THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE LOWLANDS E OF PUGET SOUND.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTING INLAND OVER W WA ON SATURDAY. THE
TROUGH SLIDES OVER E WA ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW MOVES SE OVER W WA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALOFT INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THERE IS PROBABLY A VERY LOW NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OLYMPICS. DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN THE MID LEVEL
STEERING FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY CELLS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
LOWLANDS. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 320 AM AFD...THE GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE EACH DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...WRN WA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WRN BRITISH COLUMBIA THRU
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CONTD LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW TSTMS OVER MAINLY THE MTNS. THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD END
AFTER 0300 UTC.

MEANWHILE...CIGS MAINLY AOB 1K FT BLANKETED MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS
THIS MORNING. TOPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE.
THERE WERE ALSO AREAS OF 4-6SM /DUE TO FOG/ OVER THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD DSIPT BY 2000 UTC. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE DAY. BY 0000 UTC...CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY /1-3K FT/ RANGE OR BETTER.

KSEA...CIGS WILL LIFT INTO THE 2-3K FT RANGE AFTER 1900 UTC...AND
ARE ANTICIPATED BE NEAR 3500 FT BY 0000 UTC. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO
THE 1-2K FT RANGE AFTER 0600 UTC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW 5-10
KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEST COMPONENT OF THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY CONFIDENT
THAT SPEEDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER PARTS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA THIS EVENING. WILL RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION THIS
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH
THROUGH TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
     EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$













000
FXUS66 KOTX 221603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vcnty of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more development in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest.
The HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain
of the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  40  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  60  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vcnty of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more development in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest.
The HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain
of the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  40  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  60  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 221603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vcnty of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more development in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest.
The HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain
of the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  40  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  60  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




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