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000
FXUS66 KOTX 022352
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected this evening with the passage of a cold
front. The front will also bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to the Idaho Panhandle and northern Washington
tonight into Wednesday. Thursday morning will be cold with low
temperatures down into the lower to mid 30s for the mountain
valley locations. The return of high pressure Thursday through the
weekend will bring several days of dry weather, light winds, and
warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Showers, perhaps some thunder, and breezy conditions are
expected. A cold front and dynamic upper trough were pushing into
western Washington this afternoon. The cold front tracks east of
the Cascades early this evening, into the Panhandle around
midnight and exits into Montana by Wednesday AM. The upper trough,
however, will be slower to exit. Early this evening models keep
the main precipitation over the Cascades with the cold front and
along the Canadian border closer to the warm front. As the cold
front and upper trough start east of the Cascades, a surface
trough/trowal starts to become established across the northern
mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage
around the Okanogan, the mountains of northeast Washington and, by
late evening or early overnight, over the northern Panhandle.
Showers are also expected to develop over portions of the Basin
through central/southern Panhandle, especially from 8 PM and
beyond. However, being more removed from the upper support, these
should be more isolated to scattered in nature. This means not
every location will get wet, especially the further south and west
into the Basin and south toward the L-C valley. As the night
progresses into Wednesday morning the upper trough pivots east
toward the WA/ID border, with the trowal and moisture wrapping
just behind it. This will only serve to keep precipitation chances
high across north-central and northeast WA and chances going
across the upper Columbia Basin through Palouse and central
Panhandle. Smaller chances will be found toward the L-C Valley and
Camas Prairie.

As for the thunder prospects, modest CAPE is depicted this
evening around the Cascade crest and toward the northern
mountains. This abates through the evening and overnight, but weak
to moderate elevated instability lingers across northeast WA and
east-central WA and north ID overnight. So look for some thunder
chances across the Cascades through northern Panhandle, with the
main threat shifting toward northeast WA and north ID overnight.
Thunder coverage is not expected to be large, but storms may be
capable of heavy downpours and gusty winds.

As for the winds, WV imagery shows good darkening with the upper
trough/vorticity max and this suggests some good mixing with the
incoming front. So look for winds to really pick up as we go into
late afternoon and remain breezy to locally windy through this
evening. The strongest winds are expected closer to the Cascades,
especially near the ridge-tops. Lower elevations near the Cascades
could see sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 30 to
40 mph. This includes the Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau area.
Nearby mountain-top winds, however, could gust between 50 to 60
mph. We will have to watch any convection that might fire in this
region for potentially strong winds reaching the lower elevations.
Speeds will abate overnight, but in a gradual way. The main area
that should miss out any strong winds will be toward the sheltered
valleys of northeast WA and north ID, with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph
range. /J. Cote`

Wednesday through Friday: The incoming upper trough will be
sitting over the forecast area as dawn breaks on Wednesday. Models
are in good agreement regarding the strength...track and speed of
this system. The trough cusp will feature areas of moderate to
strong vorticity dynamics with cooler air aloft decreasing
stability. Present for fuel will be around 3/4 inch precipitable
water which is very adequate for showers. All-in-all it appears
this system will bring a moderate amount of rain to parts of the
region...likely north and east of a line from Omak to
Pullman...during the day tomorrow. Character of precipitation will
probably be hit-and-miss showery over the northeast basin with
frequent or intermittent showers. The peripheral zones from the
east slopes of the cascades to the upper Columbia Basin and the
Palouse will experience more isolated and spotty showers. The deep
basin and cascades lee zones will probably only receive breezy
winds and clouds from this wave passage.

The upper trough will move out quickly on Wednesday night with a
general drying and clearing trend from west to east as the
backside ridge featuring dry northwest flow kicks in by Thursday
morning. A second weak wave will brush along the Canadian border
Thursday night but little beyond some enhanced cloud cover over
the northeast is expected at this time.

Temperatures particularly Thursday morning will have a nip of
Autumn to them...with overnight lows into the upper 30s possible
in the sheltered valleys north and east of the basin...along with
some patchy valley fog. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be well
below normal but begin a recovery Thursday as things dry out and
the ridge builds back. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday: A dome of high pressure will expand
over the Inland NW over the weekend bringing abundant sunshine...above
normal temperatures...and light winds. 850mb temperatures will
warm between 19-20C yielding temperatures in the 80`s to low 90`s.
The ridge of high pressure will weaken and shift west at the start
of the work week setting up persistent northwesterly flow into
Ern WA. The transition to NW flow will be marked by a shortwave
trof passage during the Sunday night/Monday time-frame. This
system will bring gusty winds...chance for showers...and return
to cooler...September like temperatures. Overall...deterministic
and ensemble member solutions are in good agreement and any
foreseeable changes will likely deal with timing and depth of the
Sunday night/Mon feature. GFS progs look like a carbon copy of the
next 24 hours while the ECMWF is a tad weaker. Both solutions
support the best chance for showers mainly along the Cascade Crest
and northern mountains of WA/ID and likelihood for breezy
conditions. 850mb temperatures cool to 15C Monday then 13C Tuesday
knocking temperatures back into the 70`s to lower 80`s. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
between 0-6z this evening. This front will produce gusty winds
from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between 00-02Z and
then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites
around 03-05Z. Blowing dust is possible around KMWH. Winds will
remain breezy through the overnight hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the northern mtns early this
evening into tonight with a few storms as far south as
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. A band of wrap around moisture and upslope flow
into the Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday will produce steady rain and
MVFR conditions with some improvement likely in the afternoon.
Occasional MVFR conditions is possible at KGEG/KSFF Wednesday
morning depending on how far west the band of wrap around rain
extends. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  64  47  74  49  79 /  60  50  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  43  74  44  79 /  70  60  40   0   0   0
Pullman        46  65  41  74  43  81 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       54  72  50  79  51  85 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       48  65  40  77  41  82 /  60  60  30   0  10  10
Sandpoint      46  58  40  72  40  76 /  70  80  60  10  10  10
Kellogg        47  55  40  70  43  75 /  50  60  50  10   0  10
Moses Lake     52  76  49  79  49  85 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  76  55  78  54  84 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  73  47  79  48  84 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022352
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected this evening with the passage of a cold
front. The front will also bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to the Idaho Panhandle and northern Washington
tonight into Wednesday. Thursday morning will be cold with low
temperatures down into the lower to mid 30s for the mountain
valley locations. The return of high pressure Thursday through the
weekend will bring several days of dry weather, light winds, and
warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Showers, perhaps some thunder, and breezy conditions are
expected. A cold front and dynamic upper trough were pushing into
western Washington this afternoon. The cold front tracks east of
the Cascades early this evening, into the Panhandle around
midnight and exits into Montana by Wednesday AM. The upper trough,
however, will be slower to exit. Early this evening models keep
the main precipitation over the Cascades with the cold front and
along the Canadian border closer to the warm front. As the cold
front and upper trough start east of the Cascades, a surface
trough/trowal starts to become established across the northern
mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage
around the Okanogan, the mountains of northeast Washington and, by
late evening or early overnight, over the northern Panhandle.
Showers are also expected to develop over portions of the Basin
through central/southern Panhandle, especially from 8 PM and
beyond. However, being more removed from the upper support, these
should be more isolated to scattered in nature. This means not
every location will get wet, especially the further south and west
into the Basin and south toward the L-C valley. As the night
progresses into Wednesday morning the upper trough pivots east
toward the WA/ID border, with the trowal and moisture wrapping
just behind it. This will only serve to keep precipitation chances
high across north-central and northeast WA and chances going
across the upper Columbia Basin through Palouse and central
Panhandle. Smaller chances will be found toward the L-C Valley and
Camas Prairie.

As for the thunder prospects, modest CAPE is depicted this
evening around the Cascade crest and toward the northern
mountains. This abates through the evening and overnight, but weak
to moderate elevated instability lingers across northeast WA and
east-central WA and north ID overnight. So look for some thunder
chances across the Cascades through northern Panhandle, with the
main threat shifting toward northeast WA and north ID overnight.
Thunder coverage is not expected to be large, but storms may be
capable of heavy downpours and gusty winds.

As for the winds, WV imagery shows good darkening with the upper
trough/vorticity max and this suggests some good mixing with the
incoming front. So look for winds to really pick up as we go into
late afternoon and remain breezy to locally windy through this
evening. The strongest winds are expected closer to the Cascades,
especially near the ridge-tops. Lower elevations near the Cascades
could see sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 30 to
40 mph. This includes the Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau area.
Nearby mountain-top winds, however, could gust between 50 to 60
mph. We will have to watch any convection that might fire in this
region for potentially strong winds reaching the lower elevations.
Speeds will abate overnight, but in a gradual way. The main area
that should miss out any strong winds will be toward the sheltered
valleys of northeast WA and north ID, with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph
range. /J. Cote`

Wednesday through Friday: The incoming upper trough will be
sitting over the forecast area as dawn breaks on Wednesday. Models
are in good agreement regarding the strength...track and speed of
this system. The trough cusp will feature areas of moderate to
strong vorticity dynamics with cooler air aloft decreasing
stability. Present for fuel will be around 3/4 inch precipitable
water which is very adequate for showers. All-in-all it appears
this system will bring a moderate amount of rain to parts of the
region...likely north and east of a line from Omak to
Pullman...during the day tomorrow. Character of precipitation will
probably be hit-and-miss showery over the northeast basin with
frequent or intermittent showers. The peripheral zones from the
east slopes of the cascades to the upper Columbia Basin and the
Palouse will experience more isolated and spotty showers. The deep
basin and cascades lee zones will probably only receive breezy
winds and clouds from this wave passage.

The upper trough will move out quickly on Wednesday night with a
general drying and clearing trend from west to east as the
backside ridge featuring dry northwest flow kicks in by Thursday
morning. A second weak wave will brush along the Canadian border
Thursday night but little beyond some enhanced cloud cover over
the northeast is expected at this time.

Temperatures particularly Thursday morning will have a nip of
Autumn to them...with overnight lows into the upper 30s possible
in the sheltered valleys north and east of the basin...along with
some patchy valley fog. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be well
below normal but begin a recovery Thursday as things dry out and
the ridge builds back. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday: A dome of high pressure will expand
over the Inland NW over the weekend bringing abundant sunshine...above
normal temperatures...and light winds. 850mb temperatures will
warm between 19-20C yielding temperatures in the 80`s to low 90`s.
The ridge of high pressure will weaken and shift west at the start
of the work week setting up persistent northwesterly flow into
Ern WA. The transition to NW flow will be marked by a shortwave
trof passage during the Sunday night/Monday time-frame. This
system will bring gusty winds...chance for showers...and return
to cooler...September like temperatures. Overall...deterministic
and ensemble member solutions are in good agreement and any
foreseeable changes will likely deal with timing and depth of the
Sunday night/Mon feature. GFS progs look like a carbon copy of the
next 24 hours while the ECMWF is a tad weaker. Both solutions
support the best chance for showers mainly along the Cascade Crest
and northern mountains of WA/ID and likelihood for breezy
conditions. 850mb temperatures cool to 15C Monday then 13C Tuesday
knocking temperatures back into the 70`s to lower 80`s. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
between 0-6z this evening. This front will produce gusty winds
from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between 00-02Z and
then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites
around 03-05Z. Blowing dust is possible around KMWH. Winds will
remain breezy through the overnight hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the northern mtns early this
evening into tonight with a few storms as far south as
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. A band of wrap around moisture and upslope flow
into the Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday will produce steady rain and
MVFR conditions with some improvement likely in the afternoon.
Occasional MVFR conditions is possible at KGEG/KSFF Wednesday
morning depending on how far west the band of wrap around rain
extends. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  64  47  74  49  79 /  60  50  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  43  74  44  79 /  70  60  40   0   0   0
Pullman        46  65  41  74  43  81 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       54  72  50  79  51  85 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       48  65  40  77  41  82 /  60  60  30   0  10  10
Sandpoint      46  58  40  72  40  76 /  70  80  60  10  10  10
Kellogg        47  55  40  70  43  75 /  50  60  50  10   0  10
Moses Lake     52  76  49  79  49  85 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  76  55  78  54  84 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  73  47  79  48  84 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022352
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected this evening with the passage of a cold
front. The front will also bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to the Idaho Panhandle and northern Washington
tonight into Wednesday. Thursday morning will be cold with low
temperatures down into the lower to mid 30s for the mountain
valley locations. The return of high pressure Thursday through the
weekend will bring several days of dry weather, light winds, and
warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Showers, perhaps some thunder, and breezy conditions are
expected. A cold front and dynamic upper trough were pushing into
western Washington this afternoon. The cold front tracks east of
the Cascades early this evening, into the Panhandle around
midnight and exits into Montana by Wednesday AM. The upper trough,
however, will be slower to exit. Early this evening models keep
the main precipitation over the Cascades with the cold front and
along the Canadian border closer to the warm front. As the cold
front and upper trough start east of the Cascades, a surface
trough/trowal starts to become established across the northern
mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage
around the Okanogan, the mountains of northeast Washington and, by
late evening or early overnight, over the northern Panhandle.
Showers are also expected to develop over portions of the Basin
through central/southern Panhandle, especially from 8 PM and
beyond. However, being more removed from the upper support, these
should be more isolated to scattered in nature. This means not
every location will get wet, especially the further south and west
into the Basin and south toward the L-C valley. As the night
progresses into Wednesday morning the upper trough pivots east
toward the WA/ID border, with the trowal and moisture wrapping
just behind it. This will only serve to keep precipitation chances
high across north-central and northeast WA and chances going
across the upper Columbia Basin through Palouse and central
Panhandle. Smaller chances will be found toward the L-C Valley and
Camas Prairie.

As for the thunder prospects, modest CAPE is depicted this
evening around the Cascade crest and toward the northern
mountains. This abates through the evening and overnight, but weak
to moderate elevated instability lingers across northeast WA and
east-central WA and north ID overnight. So look for some thunder
chances across the Cascades through northern Panhandle, with the
main threat shifting toward northeast WA and north ID overnight.
Thunder coverage is not expected to be large, but storms may be
capable of heavy downpours and gusty winds.

As for the winds, WV imagery shows good darkening with the upper
trough/vorticity max and this suggests some good mixing with the
incoming front. So look for winds to really pick up as we go into
late afternoon and remain breezy to locally windy through this
evening. The strongest winds are expected closer to the Cascades,
especially near the ridge-tops. Lower elevations near the Cascades
could see sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 30 to
40 mph. This includes the Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau area.
Nearby mountain-top winds, however, could gust between 50 to 60
mph. We will have to watch any convection that might fire in this
region for potentially strong winds reaching the lower elevations.
Speeds will abate overnight, but in a gradual way. The main area
that should miss out any strong winds will be toward the sheltered
valleys of northeast WA and north ID, with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph
range. /J. Cote`

Wednesday through Friday: The incoming upper trough will be
sitting over the forecast area as dawn breaks on Wednesday. Models
are in good agreement regarding the strength...track and speed of
this system. The trough cusp will feature areas of moderate to
strong vorticity dynamics with cooler air aloft decreasing
stability. Present for fuel will be around 3/4 inch precipitable
water which is very adequate for showers. All-in-all it appears
this system will bring a moderate amount of rain to parts of the
region...likely north and east of a line from Omak to
Pullman...during the day tomorrow. Character of precipitation will
probably be hit-and-miss showery over the northeast basin with
frequent or intermittent showers. The peripheral zones from the
east slopes of the cascades to the upper Columbia Basin and the
Palouse will experience more isolated and spotty showers. The deep
basin and cascades lee zones will probably only receive breezy
winds and clouds from this wave passage.

The upper trough will move out quickly on Wednesday night with a
general drying and clearing trend from west to east as the
backside ridge featuring dry northwest flow kicks in by Thursday
morning. A second weak wave will brush along the Canadian border
Thursday night but little beyond some enhanced cloud cover over
the northeast is expected at this time.

Temperatures particularly Thursday morning will have a nip of
Autumn to them...with overnight lows into the upper 30s possible
in the sheltered valleys north and east of the basin...along with
some patchy valley fog. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be well
below normal but begin a recovery Thursday as things dry out and
the ridge builds back. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday: A dome of high pressure will expand
over the Inland NW over the weekend bringing abundant sunshine...above
normal temperatures...and light winds. 850mb temperatures will
warm between 19-20C yielding temperatures in the 80`s to low 90`s.
The ridge of high pressure will weaken and shift west at the start
of the work week setting up persistent northwesterly flow into
Ern WA. The transition to NW flow will be marked by a shortwave
trof passage during the Sunday night/Monday time-frame. This
system will bring gusty winds...chance for showers...and return
to cooler...September like temperatures. Overall...deterministic
and ensemble member solutions are in good agreement and any
foreseeable changes will likely deal with timing and depth of the
Sunday night/Mon feature. GFS progs look like a carbon copy of the
next 24 hours while the ECMWF is a tad weaker. Both solutions
support the best chance for showers mainly along the Cascade Crest
and northern mountains of WA/ID and likelihood for breezy
conditions. 850mb temperatures cool to 15C Monday then 13C Tuesday
knocking temperatures back into the 70`s to lower 80`s. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
between 0-6z this evening. This front will produce gusty winds
from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between 00-02Z and
then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites
around 03-05Z. Blowing dust is possible around KMWH. Winds will
remain breezy through the overnight hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the northern mtns early this
evening into tonight with a few storms as far south as
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. A band of wrap around moisture and upslope flow
into the Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday will produce steady rain and
MVFR conditions with some improvement likely in the afternoon.
Occasional MVFR conditions is possible at KGEG/KSFF Wednesday
morning depending on how far west the band of wrap around rain
extends. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  64  47  74  49  79 /  60  50  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  43  74  44  79 /  70  60  40   0   0   0
Pullman        46  65  41  74  43  81 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       54  72  50  79  51  85 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       48  65  40  77  41  82 /  60  60  30   0  10  10
Sandpoint      46  58  40  72  40  76 /  70  80  60  10  10  10
Kellogg        47  55  40  70  43  75 /  50  60  50  10   0  10
Moses Lake     52  76  49  79  49  85 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  76  55  78  54  84 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  73  47  79  48  84 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022352
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected this evening with the passage of a cold
front. The front will also bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to the Idaho Panhandle and northern Washington
tonight into Wednesday. Thursday morning will be cold with low
temperatures down into the lower to mid 30s for the mountain
valley locations. The return of high pressure Thursday through the
weekend will bring several days of dry weather, light winds, and
warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Showers, perhaps some thunder, and breezy conditions are
expected. A cold front and dynamic upper trough were pushing into
western Washington this afternoon. The cold front tracks east of
the Cascades early this evening, into the Panhandle around
midnight and exits into Montana by Wednesday AM. The upper trough,
however, will be slower to exit. Early this evening models keep
the main precipitation over the Cascades with the cold front and
along the Canadian border closer to the warm front. As the cold
front and upper trough start east of the Cascades, a surface
trough/trowal starts to become established across the northern
mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage
around the Okanogan, the mountains of northeast Washington and, by
late evening or early overnight, over the northern Panhandle.
Showers are also expected to develop over portions of the Basin
through central/southern Panhandle, especially from 8 PM and
beyond. However, being more removed from the upper support, these
should be more isolated to scattered in nature. This means not
every location will get wet, especially the further south and west
into the Basin and south toward the L-C valley. As the night
progresses into Wednesday morning the upper trough pivots east
toward the WA/ID border, with the trowal and moisture wrapping
just behind it. This will only serve to keep precipitation chances
high across north-central and northeast WA and chances going
across the upper Columbia Basin through Palouse and central
Panhandle. Smaller chances will be found toward the L-C Valley and
Camas Prairie.

As for the thunder prospects, modest CAPE is depicted this
evening around the Cascade crest and toward the northern
mountains. This abates through the evening and overnight, but weak
to moderate elevated instability lingers across northeast WA and
east-central WA and north ID overnight. So look for some thunder
chances across the Cascades through northern Panhandle, with the
main threat shifting toward northeast WA and north ID overnight.
Thunder coverage is not expected to be large, but storms may be
capable of heavy downpours and gusty winds.

As for the winds, WV imagery shows good darkening with the upper
trough/vorticity max and this suggests some good mixing with the
incoming front. So look for winds to really pick up as we go into
late afternoon and remain breezy to locally windy through this
evening. The strongest winds are expected closer to the Cascades,
especially near the ridge-tops. Lower elevations near the Cascades
could see sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 30 to
40 mph. This includes the Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau area.
Nearby mountain-top winds, however, could gust between 50 to 60
mph. We will have to watch any convection that might fire in this
region for potentially strong winds reaching the lower elevations.
Speeds will abate overnight, but in a gradual way. The main area
that should miss out any strong winds will be toward the sheltered
valleys of northeast WA and north ID, with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph
range. /J. Cote`

Wednesday through Friday: The incoming upper trough will be
sitting over the forecast area as dawn breaks on Wednesday. Models
are in good agreement regarding the strength...track and speed of
this system. The trough cusp will feature areas of moderate to
strong vorticity dynamics with cooler air aloft decreasing
stability. Present for fuel will be around 3/4 inch precipitable
water which is very adequate for showers. All-in-all it appears
this system will bring a moderate amount of rain to parts of the
region...likely north and east of a line from Omak to
Pullman...during the day tomorrow. Character of precipitation will
probably be hit-and-miss showery over the northeast basin with
frequent or intermittent showers. The peripheral zones from the
east slopes of the cascades to the upper Columbia Basin and the
Palouse will experience more isolated and spotty showers. The deep
basin and cascades lee zones will probably only receive breezy
winds and clouds from this wave passage.

The upper trough will move out quickly on Wednesday night with a
general drying and clearing trend from west to east as the
backside ridge featuring dry northwest flow kicks in by Thursday
morning. A second weak wave will brush along the Canadian border
Thursday night but little beyond some enhanced cloud cover over
the northeast is expected at this time.

Temperatures particularly Thursday morning will have a nip of
Autumn to them...with overnight lows into the upper 30s possible
in the sheltered valleys north and east of the basin...along with
some patchy valley fog. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be well
below normal but begin a recovery Thursday as things dry out and
the ridge builds back. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday: A dome of high pressure will expand
over the Inland NW over the weekend bringing abundant sunshine...above
normal temperatures...and light winds. 850mb temperatures will
warm between 19-20C yielding temperatures in the 80`s to low 90`s.
The ridge of high pressure will weaken and shift west at the start
of the work week setting up persistent northwesterly flow into
Ern WA. The transition to NW flow will be marked by a shortwave
trof passage during the Sunday night/Monday time-frame. This
system will bring gusty winds...chance for showers...and return
to cooler...September like temperatures. Overall...deterministic
and ensemble member solutions are in good agreement and any
foreseeable changes will likely deal with timing and depth of the
Sunday night/Mon feature. GFS progs look like a carbon copy of the
next 24 hours while the ECMWF is a tad weaker. Both solutions
support the best chance for showers mainly along the Cascade Crest
and northern mountains of WA/ID and likelihood for breezy
conditions. 850mb temperatures cool to 15C Monday then 13C Tuesday
knocking temperatures back into the 70`s to lower 80`s. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
between 0-6z this evening. This front will produce gusty winds
from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between 00-02Z and
then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites
around 03-05Z. Blowing dust is possible around KMWH. Winds will
remain breezy through the overnight hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the northern mtns early this
evening into tonight with a few storms as far south as
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. A band of wrap around moisture and upslope flow
into the Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday will produce steady rain and
MVFR conditions with some improvement likely in the afternoon.
Occasional MVFR conditions is possible at KGEG/KSFF Wednesday
morning depending on how far west the band of wrap around rain
extends. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  64  47  74  49  79 /  60  50  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  43  74  44  79 /  70  60  40   0   0   0
Pullman        46  65  41  74  43  81 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       54  72  50  79  51  85 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       48  65  40  77  41  82 /  60  60  30   0  10  10
Sandpoint      46  58  40  72  40  76 /  70  80  60  10  10  10
Kellogg        47  55  40  70  43  75 /  50  60  50  10   0  10
Moses Lake     52  76  49  79  49  85 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  76  55  78  54  84 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  73  47  79  48  84 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 022331 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
430 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS.

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SUNSHINE AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY WILL MEAN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY SUNSET AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY
WEATHER WITH HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND PERHAPS THE LAST
REALLY WARM DAY OF THE SUMMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
COMMON.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...THIS FEATURE LOOKS DRY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND TO START A COOLING TREND. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST BUT THE INTERIOR LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET ONE MORE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS COOLING 5-10
DEGREES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AS OF 22Z. EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INLAND. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT...WHILE MORE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA REMAIN VFR WITH MVFR MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EASE
THIS EVENING AND BE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA. EXPECT
THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A PSCZ KING
COUNTY...REMAINING NORTH OF KSEA. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...GENERALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS MAY LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KT WILL EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING. EXPECT A PSCZ TO FORM AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS
LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 022331 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
430 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS.

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SUNSHINE AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY WILL MEAN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY SUNSET AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY
WEATHER WITH HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND PERHAPS THE LAST
REALLY WARM DAY OF THE SUMMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
COMMON.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...THIS FEATURE LOOKS DRY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND TO START A COOLING TREND. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST BUT THE INTERIOR LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET ONE MORE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS COOLING 5-10
DEGREES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AS OF 22Z. EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INLAND. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT...WHILE MORE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA REMAIN VFR WITH MVFR MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EASE
THIS EVENING AND BE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA. EXPECT
THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A PSCZ KING
COUNTY...REMAINING NORTH OF KSEA. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...GENERALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS MAY LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KT WILL EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING. EXPECT A PSCZ TO FORM AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS
LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 022331 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
430 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS.

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SUNSHINE AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY WILL MEAN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY SUNSET AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY
WEATHER WITH HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND PERHAPS THE LAST
REALLY WARM DAY OF THE SUMMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
COMMON.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...THIS FEATURE LOOKS DRY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND TO START A COOLING TREND. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST BUT THE INTERIOR LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET ONE MORE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS COOLING 5-10
DEGREES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AS OF 22Z. EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INLAND. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT...WHILE MORE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA REMAIN VFR WITH MVFR MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EASE
THIS EVENING AND BE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA. EXPECT
THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A PSCZ KING
COUNTY...REMAINING NORTH OF KSEA. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...GENERALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS MAY LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KT WILL EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING. EXPECT A PSCZ TO FORM AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS
LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 022331 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
430 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS.

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SUNSHINE AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY WILL MEAN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY SUNSET AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY
WEATHER WITH HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND PERHAPS THE LAST
REALLY WARM DAY OF THE SUMMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
COMMON.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...THIS FEATURE LOOKS DRY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND TO START A COOLING TREND. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST BUT THE INTERIOR LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET ONE MORE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS COOLING 5-10
DEGREES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AS OF 22Z. EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INLAND. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT...WHILE MORE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA REMAIN VFR WITH MVFR MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EASE
THIS EVENING AND BE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA. EXPECT
THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A PSCZ KING
COUNTY...REMAINING NORTH OF KSEA. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...GENERALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS MAY LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KT WILL EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING. EXPECT A PSCZ TO FORM AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS
LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 022245
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
345 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WESTERN THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY WILL MEAN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY SUNSET AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY
WEATHER WITH HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND PERHAPS THE LAST
REALLY WARM DAY OF THE SUMMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
COMMON.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...THIS FEATURE LOOKS DRY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND TO START A COOLING TREND. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST BUT THE INTERIOR LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET ONE MORE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS COOLING 5-10
DEGREES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AS OF 22Z. EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INLAND. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT...WHILE MORE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA REMAIN VFR WITH MVFR MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EASE
THIS EVENING AND BE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA. EXPECT
THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A PSCZ KING
COUNTY...REMAINING NORTH OF KSEA. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...GENERALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS MAY LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KT WILL EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING. EXPECT A PSCZ TO FORM AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS
LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 022245
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
345 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WESTERN THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY WILL MEAN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY SUNSET AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY
WEATHER WITH HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND PERHAPS THE LAST
REALLY WARM DAY OF THE SUMMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
COMMON.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR
NOW...THIS FEATURE LOOKS DRY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND TO START A COOLING TREND. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST BUT THE INTERIOR LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET ONE MORE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS COOLING 5-10
DEGREES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AS OF 22Z. EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INLAND. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT...WHILE MORE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA REMAIN VFR WITH MVFR MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EASE
THIS EVENING AND BE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA. EXPECT
THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A PSCZ KING
COUNTY...REMAINING NORTH OF KSEA. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...GENERALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS MAY LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KT WILL EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING. EXPECT A PSCZ TO FORM AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS
LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 022131
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT TUE SEP  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CLOUDY
SKIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE WA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND
THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE SEVENTIES DURING THIS
PERIOD. NO RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS RECORD TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S AT THE COAST AND UPPER 90S AND EVEN LOW
100S FOR THE VALLEY.

ON THE FIRE WEATHER FRONT...POOR NIGHT TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES AND MODEST EAST WINDS ACROSS THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE
WILL ENHANCE FIRE WX CONCERNS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A REX-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONSHORE AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM ONSHORE...WHICH THE ECMWF...GFS...AND
DGEX AGREE SHOULD BE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START AT THIS TIME...AND THE
UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT SETS UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCT-BKN VFR DECK BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT....THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE
APPROACHING THE S WASHINGTON/N OREGON COAST NEAR KAST AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW VFR TO
MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR
AROUND 03Z. CHANCE FOR SOME -RA N OF A GENERALLY KTMK-KSLE LINE.
WITH DECENT ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR 12Z-18Z WED WITH GENERAL CLEARING THEREAFTER. LOWER MVFR
OR PERHAPS IFR POSSIBLE AT THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED...BUT
EXPECT STRATUS TO PUSH LARGELY OFFSHORE AROUND 19Z OR 20Z WED. WINDS
ALONG THE OREGON COAST MAY BE GUSTY WED EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM KONP TO K6S2.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED LAYER AROUND 3000 FT. CIGS GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND LOWER
FROM 5000 FT INTO LOWER VFR TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH THE
APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER THIS EVENING TO
EARLY TONIGHT. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS BY 12Z
LASTING UNTIL AROUND 17Z-18Z...WITH VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THEREAFTER. CULLEN


&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT N-NW AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 23-25KT OVER THIS
AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A NW SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS IN THESE AREAS
TO NEAR 9 FT TONIGHT AS WELL.

FROM WED THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...N-NW WINDS CONTINUE
AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS IN OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL LOW PRES OVER
CALIFORNIA EXTENDS N INTO OREGON. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS WED...AND APPEAR LIKELY
OVER ALL WATERS THU AND FRI. MEANWHILE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO
9 FT...DOMINATED BY A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL.
FORECAST MODELS KEEP SEAS BELOW 10 FT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS STRONGEST WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS INTO THE 9 TO 11 FT
RANGE. WINDS LOOK TO EASE BY SUN AS HIGH PRES IN NE PAC WEAKENS
AND THERMAL LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 022131
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT TUE SEP  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CLOUDY
SKIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE WA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND
THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE SEVENTIES DURING THIS
PERIOD. NO RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS RECORD TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S AT THE COAST AND UPPER 90S AND EVEN LOW
100S FOR THE VALLEY.

ON THE FIRE WEATHER FRONT...POOR NIGHT TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES AND MODEST EAST WINDS ACROSS THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE
WILL ENHANCE FIRE WX CONCERNS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A REX-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONSHORE AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM ONSHORE...WHICH THE ECMWF...GFS...AND
DGEX AGREE SHOULD BE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START AT THIS TIME...AND THE
UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT SETS UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCT-BKN VFR DECK BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT....THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE
APPROACHING THE S WASHINGTON/N OREGON COAST NEAR KAST AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW VFR TO
MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR
AROUND 03Z. CHANCE FOR SOME -RA N OF A GENERALLY KTMK-KSLE LINE.
WITH DECENT ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR 12Z-18Z WED WITH GENERAL CLEARING THEREAFTER. LOWER MVFR
OR PERHAPS IFR POSSIBLE AT THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED...BUT
EXPECT STRATUS TO PUSH LARGELY OFFSHORE AROUND 19Z OR 20Z WED. WINDS
ALONG THE OREGON COAST MAY BE GUSTY WED EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM KONP TO K6S2.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED LAYER AROUND 3000 FT. CIGS GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND LOWER
FROM 5000 FT INTO LOWER VFR TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH THE
APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER THIS EVENING TO
EARLY TONIGHT. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS BY 12Z
LASTING UNTIL AROUND 17Z-18Z...WITH VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THEREAFTER. CULLEN


&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT N-NW AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 23-25KT OVER THIS
AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A NW SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS IN THESE AREAS
TO NEAR 9 FT TONIGHT AS WELL.

FROM WED THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...N-NW WINDS CONTINUE
AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS IN OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL LOW PRES OVER
CALIFORNIA EXTENDS N INTO OREGON. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS WED...AND APPEAR LIKELY
OVER ALL WATERS THU AND FRI. MEANWHILE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO
9 FT...DOMINATED BY A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL.
FORECAST MODELS KEEP SEAS BELOW 10 FT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS STRONGEST WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS INTO THE 9 TO 11 FT
RANGE. WINDS LOOK TO EASE BY SUN AS HIGH PRES IN NE PAC WEAKENS
AND THERMAL LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 022118
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
218 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected this evening with the passage of a cold
front. The front will also bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to the Idaho Panhandle and northern Washington
tonight into Wednesday. Thursday morning will be cold with low
temperatures down into the lower to mid 30s for the mountain
valley locations. The return of high pressure Thursday through the
weekend will bring several days of dry weather, light winds, and
warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Showers, perhaps some thunder, and breezy conditions are
expected. A cold front and dynamic upper trough were pushing into
western Washington this afternoon. The cold front tracks east of
the Cascades early this evening, into the Panhandle around
midnight and exits into Montana by Wednesday AM. The upper trough,
however, will be slower to exit. Early this evening models keep
the main precipitation over the Cascades with the cold front and
along the Canadian border closer to the warm front. As the cold
front and upper trough start east of the Cascades, a surface
trough/trowal starts to become established across the northern
mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage
around the Okanogan, the mountains of northeast Washington and, by
late evening or early overnight, over the northern Panhandle.
Showers are also expected to develop over portions of the Basin
through central/southern Panhandle, especially from 8 PM and
beyond. However, being more removed from the upper support, these
should be more isolated to scattered in nature. This means not
every location will get wet, especially the further south and west
into the Basin and south toward the L-C valley. As the night
progresses into Wednesday morning the upper trough pivots east
toward the WA/ID border, with the trowal and moisture wrapping
just behind it. This will only serve to keep precipitation chances
high across north-central and northeast WA and chances going
across the upper Columbia Basin through Palouse and central
Panhandle. Smaller chances will be found toward the L-C Valley and
Camas Prairie.

As for the thunder prospects, modest CAPE is depicted this
evening around the Cascade crest and toward the northern
mountains. This abates through the evening and overnight, but weak
to moderate elevated instability lingers across northeast WA and
east-central WA and north ID overnight. So look for some thunder
chances across the Cascades through northern Panhandle, with the
main threat shifting toward northeast WA and north ID overnight.
Thunder coverage is not expected to be large, but storms may be
capable of heavy downpours and gusty winds.

As for the winds, WV imagery shows good darkening with the upper
trough/vorticity max and this suggests some good mixing with the
incoming front. So look for winds to really pick up as we go into
late afternoon and remain breezy to locally windy through this
evening. The strongest winds are expected closer to the Cascades,
especially near the ridge-tops. Lower elevations near the Cascades
could see sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 30 to
40 mph. This includes the Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau area.
Nearby mountain-top winds, however, could gust between 50 to 60
mph. We will have to watch any convection that might fire in this
region for potentially strong winds reaching the lower elevations.
Speeds will abate overnight, but in a gradual way. The main area
that should miss out any strong winds will be toward the sheltered
valleys of northeast WA and north ID, with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph
range. /J. Cote`

Wednesday through Friday: The incoming upper trough will be
sitting over the forecast area as dawn breaks on Wednesday. Models
are in good agreement regarding the strength...track and speed of
this system. The trough cusp will feature areas of moderate to
strong vorticity dynamics with cooler air aloft decreasing
stability. Present for fuel will be around 3/4 inch precipitable
water which is very adequate for showers. All-in-all it appears
this system will bring a moderate amount of rain to parts of the
region...likely north and east of a line from Omak to
Pullman...during the day tomorrow. Character of precipitation will
probably be hit-and-miss showery over the northeast basin with
frequent or intermittent showers. The peripheral zones from the
east slopes of the cascades to the upper Columbia Basin and the
Palouse will experience more isolated and spotty showers. The deep
basin and cascades lee zones will probably only receive breezy
winds and clouds from this wave passage.

The upper trough will move out quickly on Wednesday night with a
general drying and clearing trend from west to east as the
backside ridge featuring dry northwest flow kicks in by Thursday
morning. A second weak wave will brush along the Canadian border
Thursday night but little beyond some enhanced cloud cover over
the northeast is expected at this time.

Temperatures particularly Thursday morning will have a nip of
Autumn to them...with overnight lows into the upper 30s possible
in the sheltered valleys north and east of the basin...along with
some patchy valley fog. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be well
below normal but begin a recovery Thursday as things dry out and
the ridge builds back. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday: A dome of high pressure will expand
over the Inland NW over the weekend bringing abundant sunshine...above
normal temperatures...and light winds. 850mb temperatures will
warm between 19-20C yielding temperatures in the 80`s to low 90`s.
The ridge of high pressure will weaken and shift west at the start
of the work week setting up persistent northwesterly flow into
Ern WA. The transition to NW flow will be marked by a shortwave
trof passage during the Sunday night/Monday time-frame. This
system will bring gusty winds...chance for showers...and return
to cooler...September like temperatures. Overall...deterministic
and ensemble member solutions are in good agreement and any
foreseeable changes will likely deal with timing and depth of the
Sunday night/Mon feature. GFS progs look like a carbon copy of the
next 24 hours while the ECMWF is a tad weaker. Both solutions
support the best chance for showers mainly along the Cascade Crest
and northern mountains of WA/ID and likelihood for breezy
conditions. 850mb temperatures cool to 15C Monday then 13C Tuesday
knocking temperatures back into the 70`s to lower 80`s. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
late this afternoon through this evening. This front will produce
gusty winds from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between
23-02Z and then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites around 03-04Z. Winds will remain breezy through the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
northern mtns late this afternoon into tonight and then begin to
push into KGEG, KSFF and KCOE and possibly as far south as KPUW
Wednesday morning and last at least through the end of the TAF
period. Conditions will remain VFR at all TAF sites with the
possible exception of KCOE after 12Z Wednesday if shower
development is more intense and widespread than currently
forecast. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  64  47  74  49  79 /  60  50  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  43  74  44  79 /  70  60  40   0   0   0
Pullman        46  65  41  74  43  81 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       54  72  50  79  51  85 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       48  65  40  77  41  82 /  60  60  30   0  10  10
Sandpoint      46  58  40  72  40  76 /  70  80  60  10  10  10
Kellogg        47  55  40  70  43  75 /  50  60  50  10   0  10
Moses Lake     52  76  49  79  49  85 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  76  55  78  54  84 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  73  47  79  48  84 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 022118
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
218 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected this evening with the passage of a cold
front. The front will also bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to the Idaho Panhandle and northern Washington
tonight into Wednesday. Thursday morning will be cold with low
temperatures down into the lower to mid 30s for the mountain
valley locations. The return of high pressure Thursday through the
weekend will bring several days of dry weather, light winds, and
warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Showers, perhaps some thunder, and breezy conditions are
expected. A cold front and dynamic upper trough were pushing into
western Washington this afternoon. The cold front tracks east of
the Cascades early this evening, into the Panhandle around
midnight and exits into Montana by Wednesday AM. The upper trough,
however, will be slower to exit. Early this evening models keep
the main precipitation over the Cascades with the cold front and
along the Canadian border closer to the warm front. As the cold
front and upper trough start east of the Cascades, a surface
trough/trowal starts to become established across the northern
mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage
around the Okanogan, the mountains of northeast Washington and, by
late evening or early overnight, over the northern Panhandle.
Showers are also expected to develop over portions of the Basin
through central/southern Panhandle, especially from 8 PM and
beyond. However, being more removed from the upper support, these
should be more isolated to scattered in nature. This means not
every location will get wet, especially the further south and west
into the Basin and south toward the L-C valley. As the night
progresses into Wednesday morning the upper trough pivots east
toward the WA/ID border, with the trowal and moisture wrapping
just behind it. This will only serve to keep precipitation chances
high across north-central and northeast WA and chances going
across the upper Columbia Basin through Palouse and central
Panhandle. Smaller chances will be found toward the L-C Valley and
Camas Prairie.

As for the thunder prospects, modest CAPE is depicted this
evening around the Cascade crest and toward the northern
mountains. This abates through the evening and overnight, but weak
to moderate elevated instability lingers across northeast WA and
east-central WA and north ID overnight. So look for some thunder
chances across the Cascades through northern Panhandle, with the
main threat shifting toward northeast WA and north ID overnight.
Thunder coverage is not expected to be large, but storms may be
capable of heavy downpours and gusty winds.

As for the winds, WV imagery shows good darkening with the upper
trough/vorticity max and this suggests some good mixing with the
incoming front. So look for winds to really pick up as we go into
late afternoon and remain breezy to locally windy through this
evening. The strongest winds are expected closer to the Cascades,
especially near the ridge-tops. Lower elevations near the Cascades
could see sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 30 to
40 mph. This includes the Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau area.
Nearby mountain-top winds, however, could gust between 50 to 60
mph. We will have to watch any convection that might fire in this
region for potentially strong winds reaching the lower elevations.
Speeds will abate overnight, but in a gradual way. The main area
that should miss out any strong winds will be toward the sheltered
valleys of northeast WA and north ID, with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph
range. /J. Cote`

Wednesday through Friday: The incoming upper trough will be
sitting over the forecast area as dawn breaks on Wednesday. Models
are in good agreement regarding the strength...track and speed of
this system. The trough cusp will feature areas of moderate to
strong vorticity dynamics with cooler air aloft decreasing
stability. Present for fuel will be around 3/4 inch precipitable
water which is very adequate for showers. All-in-all it appears
this system will bring a moderate amount of rain to parts of the
region...likely north and east of a line from Omak to
Pullman...during the day tomorrow. Character of precipitation will
probably be hit-and-miss showery over the northeast basin with
frequent or intermittent showers. The peripheral zones from the
east slopes of the cascades to the upper Columbia Basin and the
Palouse will experience more isolated and spotty showers. The deep
basin and cascades lee zones will probably only receive breezy
winds and clouds from this wave passage.

The upper trough will move out quickly on Wednesday night with a
general drying and clearing trend from west to east as the
backside ridge featuring dry northwest flow kicks in by Thursday
morning. A second weak wave will brush along the Canadian border
Thursday night but little beyond some enhanced cloud cover over
the northeast is expected at this time.

Temperatures particularly Thursday morning will have a nip of
Autumn to them...with overnight lows into the upper 30s possible
in the sheltered valleys north and east of the basin...along with
some patchy valley fog. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be well
below normal but begin a recovery Thursday as things dry out and
the ridge builds back. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday: A dome of high pressure will expand
over the Inland NW over the weekend bringing abundant sunshine...above
normal temperatures...and light winds. 850mb temperatures will
warm between 19-20C yielding temperatures in the 80`s to low 90`s.
The ridge of high pressure will weaken and shift west at the start
of the work week setting up persistent northwesterly flow into
Ern WA. The transition to NW flow will be marked by a shortwave
trof passage during the Sunday night/Monday time-frame. This
system will bring gusty winds...chance for showers...and return
to cooler...September like temperatures. Overall...deterministic
and ensemble member solutions are in good agreement and any
foreseeable changes will likely deal with timing and depth of the
Sunday night/Mon feature. GFS progs look like a carbon copy of the
next 24 hours while the ECMWF is a tad weaker. Both solutions
support the best chance for showers mainly along the Cascade Crest
and northern mountains of WA/ID and likelihood for breezy
conditions. 850mb temperatures cool to 15C Monday then 13C Tuesday
knocking temperatures back into the 70`s to lower 80`s. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
late this afternoon through this evening. This front will produce
gusty winds from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between
23-02Z and then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites around 03-04Z. Winds will remain breezy through the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
northern mtns late this afternoon into tonight and then begin to
push into KGEG, KSFF and KCOE and possibly as far south as KPUW
Wednesday morning and last at least through the end of the TAF
period. Conditions will remain VFR at all TAF sites with the
possible exception of KCOE after 12Z Wednesday if shower
development is more intense and widespread than currently
forecast. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  64  47  74  49  79 /  60  50  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  43  74  44  79 /  70  60  40   0   0   0
Pullman        46  65  41  74  43  81 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       54  72  50  79  51  85 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       48  65  40  77  41  82 /  60  60  30   0  10  10
Sandpoint      46  58  40  72  40  76 /  70  80  60  10  10  10
Kellogg        47  55  40  70  43  75 /  50  60  50  10   0  10
Moses Lake     52  76  49  79  49  85 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  76  55  78  54  84 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  73  47  79  48  84 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 022118
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
218 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected this evening with the passage of a cold
front. The front will also bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to the Idaho Panhandle and northern Washington
tonight into Wednesday. Thursday morning will be cold with low
temperatures down into the lower to mid 30s for the mountain
valley locations. The return of high pressure Thursday through the
weekend will bring several days of dry weather, light winds, and
warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Showers, perhaps some thunder, and breezy conditions are
expected. A cold front and dynamic upper trough were pushing into
western Washington this afternoon. The cold front tracks east of
the Cascades early this evening, into the Panhandle around
midnight and exits into Montana by Wednesday AM. The upper trough,
however, will be slower to exit. Early this evening models keep
the main precipitation over the Cascades with the cold front and
along the Canadian border closer to the warm front. As the cold
front and upper trough start east of the Cascades, a surface
trough/trowal starts to become established across the northern
mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage
around the Okanogan, the mountains of northeast Washington and, by
late evening or early overnight, over the northern Panhandle.
Showers are also expected to develop over portions of the Basin
through central/southern Panhandle, especially from 8 PM and
beyond. However, being more removed from the upper support, these
should be more isolated to scattered in nature. This means not
every location will get wet, especially the further south and west
into the Basin and south toward the L-C valley. As the night
progresses into Wednesday morning the upper trough pivots east
toward the WA/ID border, with the trowal and moisture wrapping
just behind it. This will only serve to keep precipitation chances
high across north-central and northeast WA and chances going
across the upper Columbia Basin through Palouse and central
Panhandle. Smaller chances will be found toward the L-C Valley and
Camas Prairie.

As for the thunder prospects, modest CAPE is depicted this
evening around the Cascade crest and toward the northern
mountains. This abates through the evening and overnight, but weak
to moderate elevated instability lingers across northeast WA and
east-central WA and north ID overnight. So look for some thunder
chances across the Cascades through northern Panhandle, with the
main threat shifting toward northeast WA and north ID overnight.
Thunder coverage is not expected to be large, but storms may be
capable of heavy downpours and gusty winds.

As for the winds, WV imagery shows good darkening with the upper
trough/vorticity max and this suggests some good mixing with the
incoming front. So look for winds to really pick up as we go into
late afternoon and remain breezy to locally windy through this
evening. The strongest winds are expected closer to the Cascades,
especially near the ridge-tops. Lower elevations near the Cascades
could see sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 30 to
40 mph. This includes the Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau area.
Nearby mountain-top winds, however, could gust between 50 to 60
mph. We will have to watch any convection that might fire in this
region for potentially strong winds reaching the lower elevations.
Speeds will abate overnight, but in a gradual way. The main area
that should miss out any strong winds will be toward the sheltered
valleys of northeast WA and north ID, with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph
range. /J. Cote`

Wednesday through Friday: The incoming upper trough will be
sitting over the forecast area as dawn breaks on Wednesday. Models
are in good agreement regarding the strength...track and speed of
this system. The trough cusp will feature areas of moderate to
strong vorticity dynamics with cooler air aloft decreasing
stability. Present for fuel will be around 3/4 inch precipitable
water which is very adequate for showers. All-in-all it appears
this system will bring a moderate amount of rain to parts of the
region...likely north and east of a line from Omak to
Pullman...during the day tomorrow. Character of precipitation will
probably be hit-and-miss showery over the northeast basin with
frequent or intermittent showers. The peripheral zones from the
east slopes of the cascades to the upper Columbia Basin and the
Palouse will experience more isolated and spotty showers. The deep
basin and cascades lee zones will probably only receive breezy
winds and clouds from this wave passage.

The upper trough will move out quickly on Wednesday night with a
general drying and clearing trend from west to east as the
backside ridge featuring dry northwest flow kicks in by Thursday
morning. A second weak wave will brush along the Canadian border
Thursday night but little beyond some enhanced cloud cover over
the northeast is expected at this time.

Temperatures particularly Thursday morning will have a nip of
Autumn to them...with overnight lows into the upper 30s possible
in the sheltered valleys north and east of the basin...along with
some patchy valley fog. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be well
below normal but begin a recovery Thursday as things dry out and
the ridge builds back. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday: A dome of high pressure will expand
over the Inland NW over the weekend bringing abundant sunshine...above
normal temperatures...and light winds. 850mb temperatures will
warm between 19-20C yielding temperatures in the 80`s to low 90`s.
The ridge of high pressure will weaken and shift west at the start
of the work week setting up persistent northwesterly flow into
Ern WA. The transition to NW flow will be marked by a shortwave
trof passage during the Sunday night/Monday time-frame. This
system will bring gusty winds...chance for showers...and return
to cooler...September like temperatures. Overall...deterministic
and ensemble member solutions are in good agreement and any
foreseeable changes will likely deal with timing and depth of the
Sunday night/Mon feature. GFS progs look like a carbon copy of the
next 24 hours while the ECMWF is a tad weaker. Both solutions
support the best chance for showers mainly along the Cascade Crest
and northern mountains of WA/ID and likelihood for breezy
conditions. 850mb temperatures cool to 15C Monday then 13C Tuesday
knocking temperatures back into the 70`s to lower 80`s. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
late this afternoon through this evening. This front will produce
gusty winds from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between
23-02Z and then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites around 03-04Z. Winds will remain breezy through the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
northern mtns late this afternoon into tonight and then begin to
push into KGEG, KSFF and KCOE and possibly as far south as KPUW
Wednesday morning and last at least through the end of the TAF
period. Conditions will remain VFR at all TAF sites with the
possible exception of KCOE after 12Z Wednesday if shower
development is more intense and widespread than currently
forecast. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  64  47  74  49  79 /  60  50  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  43  74  44  79 /  70  60  40   0   0   0
Pullman        46  65  41  74  43  81 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       54  72  50  79  51  85 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       48  65  40  77  41  82 /  60  60  30   0  10  10
Sandpoint      46  58  40  72  40  76 /  70  80  60  10  10  10
Kellogg        47  55  40  70  43  75 /  50  60  50  10   0  10
Moses Lake     52  76  49  79  49  85 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  76  55  78  54  84 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  73  47  79  48  84 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 022118
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
218 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected this evening with the passage of a cold
front. The front will also bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to the Idaho Panhandle and northern Washington
tonight into Wednesday. Thursday morning will be cold with low
temperatures down into the lower to mid 30s for the mountain
valley locations. The return of high pressure Thursday through the
weekend will bring several days of dry weather, light winds, and
warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Showers, perhaps some thunder, and breezy conditions are
expected. A cold front and dynamic upper trough were pushing into
western Washington this afternoon. The cold front tracks east of
the Cascades early this evening, into the Panhandle around
midnight and exits into Montana by Wednesday AM. The upper trough,
however, will be slower to exit. Early this evening models keep
the main precipitation over the Cascades with the cold front and
along the Canadian border closer to the warm front. As the cold
front and upper trough start east of the Cascades, a surface
trough/trowal starts to become established across the northern
mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage
around the Okanogan, the mountains of northeast Washington and, by
late evening or early overnight, over the northern Panhandle.
Showers are also expected to develop over portions of the Basin
through central/southern Panhandle, especially from 8 PM and
beyond. However, being more removed from the upper support, these
should be more isolated to scattered in nature. This means not
every location will get wet, especially the further south and west
into the Basin and south toward the L-C valley. As the night
progresses into Wednesday morning the upper trough pivots east
toward the WA/ID border, with the trowal and moisture wrapping
just behind it. This will only serve to keep precipitation chances
high across north-central and northeast WA and chances going
across the upper Columbia Basin through Palouse and central
Panhandle. Smaller chances will be found toward the L-C Valley and
Camas Prairie.

As for the thunder prospects, modest CAPE is depicted this
evening around the Cascade crest and toward the northern
mountains. This abates through the evening and overnight, but weak
to moderate elevated instability lingers across northeast WA and
east-central WA and north ID overnight. So look for some thunder
chances across the Cascades through northern Panhandle, with the
main threat shifting toward northeast WA and north ID overnight.
Thunder coverage is not expected to be large, but storms may be
capable of heavy downpours and gusty winds.

As for the winds, WV imagery shows good darkening with the upper
trough/vorticity max and this suggests some good mixing with the
incoming front. So look for winds to really pick up as we go into
late afternoon and remain breezy to locally windy through this
evening. The strongest winds are expected closer to the Cascades,
especially near the ridge-tops. Lower elevations near the Cascades
could see sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 30 to
40 mph. This includes the Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau area.
Nearby mountain-top winds, however, could gust between 50 to 60
mph. We will have to watch any convection that might fire in this
region for potentially strong winds reaching the lower elevations.
Speeds will abate overnight, but in a gradual way. The main area
that should miss out any strong winds will be toward the sheltered
valleys of northeast WA and north ID, with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph
range. /J. Cote`

Wednesday through Friday: The incoming upper trough will be
sitting over the forecast area as dawn breaks on Wednesday. Models
are in good agreement regarding the strength...track and speed of
this system. The trough cusp will feature areas of moderate to
strong vorticity dynamics with cooler air aloft decreasing
stability. Present for fuel will be around 3/4 inch precipitable
water which is very adequate for showers. All-in-all it appears
this system will bring a moderate amount of rain to parts of the
region...likely north and east of a line from Omak to
Pullman...during the day tomorrow. Character of precipitation will
probably be hit-and-miss showery over the northeast basin with
frequent or intermittent showers. The peripheral zones from the
east slopes of the cascades to the upper Columbia Basin and the
Palouse will experience more isolated and spotty showers. The deep
basin and cascades lee zones will probably only receive breezy
winds and clouds from this wave passage.

The upper trough will move out quickly on Wednesday night with a
general drying and clearing trend from west to east as the
backside ridge featuring dry northwest flow kicks in by Thursday
morning. A second weak wave will brush along the Canadian border
Thursday night but little beyond some enhanced cloud cover over
the northeast is expected at this time.

Temperatures particularly Thursday morning will have a nip of
Autumn to them...with overnight lows into the upper 30s possible
in the sheltered valleys north and east of the basin...along with
some patchy valley fog. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be well
below normal but begin a recovery Thursday as things dry out and
the ridge builds back. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday: A dome of high pressure will expand
over the Inland NW over the weekend bringing abundant sunshine...above
normal temperatures...and light winds. 850mb temperatures will
warm between 19-20C yielding temperatures in the 80`s to low 90`s.
The ridge of high pressure will weaken and shift west at the start
of the work week setting up persistent northwesterly flow into
Ern WA. The transition to NW flow will be marked by a shortwave
trof passage during the Sunday night/Monday time-frame. This
system will bring gusty winds...chance for showers...and return
to cooler...September like temperatures. Overall...deterministic
and ensemble member solutions are in good agreement and any
foreseeable changes will likely deal with timing and depth of the
Sunday night/Mon feature. GFS progs look like a carbon copy of the
next 24 hours while the ECMWF is a tad weaker. Both solutions
support the best chance for showers mainly along the Cascade Crest
and northern mountains of WA/ID and likelihood for breezy
conditions. 850mb temperatures cool to 15C Monday then 13C Tuesday
knocking temperatures back into the 70`s to lower 80`s. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
late this afternoon through this evening. This front will produce
gusty winds from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between
23-02Z and then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites around 03-04Z. Winds will remain breezy through the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
northern mtns late this afternoon into tonight and then begin to
push into KGEG, KSFF and KCOE and possibly as far south as KPUW
Wednesday morning and last at least through the end of the TAF
period. Conditions will remain VFR at all TAF sites with the
possible exception of KCOE after 12Z Wednesday if shower
development is more intense and widespread than currently
forecast. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  64  47  74  49  79 /  60  50  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  60  43  74  44  79 /  70  60  40   0   0   0
Pullman        46  65  41  74  43  81 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       54  72  50  79  51  85 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       48  65  40  77  41  82 /  60  60  30   0  10  10
Sandpoint      46  58  40  72  40  76 /  70  80  60  10  10  10
Kellogg        47  55  40  70  43  75 /  50  60  50  10   0  10
Moses Lake     52  76  49  79  49  85 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  76  55  78  54  84 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  73  47  79  48  84 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected late this afternoon and early this
evening with the passage of a cold front. The front will also
bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Idaho
Panhandle and northern Washington tonight into Wednesday. Thursday
morning will be cold with low temperatures down into the lower to
mid 30s for the mountain valley locations. The return of high
pressure Thursday through the weekend will bring several days of
dry weather, light winds, and warmer temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Satellite imagery early this morning shows a
potent shortwave trough of lower pressure moving south along the
BC coastline. The trough axis is currently located over central BC
with water vapor imagery showing a well defined dry slot at 50N
135W in the Gulf of Alaska. This dry slot is a good approximation
of the back edge of the cold front. Models have this front progged
to cross east of the Cascade Mtns into the western basin after
5:00 PM this evening and then pushing into the Spokane Area/Palouse
by about 8:00 PM this evening. The mountains will see the best
chances for precip with the front; however, the basin up into the
Spokane Area, Coeur d`Alene Area down to the Palouse and L-C
Valley may only see some passing mid level clouds and possibly
some sprinkles or sporadic showers. There will be strong cold air
advection with the front, which will result in winds picking up
quite a bit along and behind the front. Strongest winds are
expected down the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns out over into
the western basin for the evening hours. Sustained wind speeds of
20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. This is just
below our criteria for a Wind Advisory and a highlight is not
expected at this time. The windy conditions may also result in
some blowing dust across the Moses Lake Area, and could blow
across much of the basin. This may impact travel along I-90, with
the highest risk between George and Ritzville.

Behind the cold front we will see the upper level trough swing
through for the overnight hours. There is enough mid level
instability that widespread showers and even some thunderstorms
will be possible. Best areas for showers and thunderstorms will
be across the Okanogan highlands over to the Northern Panhandle.
The general progression of these showers and thunderstorms will
be to the east and southeast. This is expected to lead to at least
a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the upper basin to
the northern portions of the Palouse. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will be capable of drawing down stronger wind gusts aloft.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: The surface low will begin to track
away from the region across the Canadian border along the state of
Montana. With the low tracking away from the region, this will
allow surface gradients to weaken with a trend toward less windy
conditions across the region. There will be some moisture that
wraps around the low into the region, so a chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon and early
evening. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Temperature will be
much cooler on Wednesday. Much of extreme eastern WA and the ID
Panhandle will only warm up into the low to mid 60s with some
locations in the Panhandle having a hard time breaking 60 degrees.
Showers will dissipate overnight with skies clearing out. This
will result in temperatures plummeting overnight with the cold
pockets across the northern mountain and Panhandle valleys
dipping close to freezing. Frost will be possible, so any
sensitive vegetation should be protected for the potential of
frost or freeze damage. This will include locations such as
Republic and Deer Park. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday: A split flow pattern over the Pacific
Northwest will bring dry weather and light winds to the region
Thursday through Saturday. A light east to northeast pressure
gradient is expected to usher in dry surface dewpoints. The dry
air mass, light winds, and clear skies will allow for large
diurnal temperature swings. The northern valleys around Colville,
Deer Park, Priest Lake and Bonners Ferry will likely experience
low temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s Friday and Saturday
morning with afternoon highs in the low 80s. Jacket weather in the
morning and shorts by the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday: The ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement
that the next shortwave trough will arrive in the Sunday/Monday
time frame. The trough will come at us from the northwest which is
a relatively dry trajectory this time of year, so the forecast for
precipitation is pretty low at this time. If the medium range
models hold true, the cold front associated with this trough will
bring a period of breezy conditions Sunday or Monday and a cooling
trend early next week. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
late this afternoon through this evening. This front will produce
gusty winds from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between
23-02Z and then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites around 03-04Z. Winds will remain breezy through the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
northern mtns late this afternoon into tonight and then begin to
push into KGEG, KSFF and KCOE and possibly as far south as KPUW
Wednesday morning and last at least through the end of the TAF
period. Conditions will remain VFR at all TAF sites with the
possible exception of KCOE after 12Z Wedenesday if shower
development is more intense and widespread than currently
forecast. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  50  63  46  75  49 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  76  50  60  42  75  44 /  10  60  50  20   0   0
Pullman        77  45  65  40  75  43 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       84  53  71  49  80  51 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       78  48  67  38  78  41 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Sandpoint      74  45  58  39  73  40 /  10  70  80  20  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  56  39  71  43 /  10  50  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     82  51  76  45  80  49 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      80  56  77  52  79  54 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           80  52  74  43  80  48 /  20  40  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected late this afternoon and early this
evening with the passage of a cold front. The front will also
bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Idaho
Panhandle and northern Washington tonight into Wednesday. Thursday
morning will be cold with low temperatures down into the lower to
mid 30s for the mountain valley locations. The return of high
pressure Thursday through the weekend will bring several days of
dry weather, light winds, and warmer temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Satellite imagery early this morning shows a
potent shortwave trough of lower pressure moving south along the
BC coastline. The trough axis is currently located over central BC
with water vapor imagery showing a well defined dry slot at 50N
135W in the Gulf of Alaska. This dry slot is a good approximation
of the back edge of the cold front. Models have this front progged
to cross east of the Cascade Mtns into the western basin after
5:00 PM this evening and then pushing into the Spokane Area/Palouse
by about 8:00 PM this evening. The mountains will see the best
chances for precip with the front; however, the basin up into the
Spokane Area, Coeur d`Alene Area down to the Palouse and L-C
Valley may only see some passing mid level clouds and possibly
some sprinkles or sporadic showers. There will be strong cold air
advection with the front, which will result in winds picking up
quite a bit along and behind the front. Strongest winds are
expected down the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns out over into
the western basin for the evening hours. Sustained wind speeds of
20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. This is just
below our criteria for a Wind Advisory and a highlight is not
expected at this time. The windy conditions may also result in
some blowing dust across the Moses Lake Area, and could blow
across much of the basin. This may impact travel along I-90, with
the highest risk between George and Ritzville.

Behind the cold front we will see the upper level trough swing
through for the overnight hours. There is enough mid level
instability that widespread showers and even some thunderstorms
will be possible. Best areas for showers and thunderstorms will
be across the Okanogan highlands over to the Northern Panhandle.
The general progression of these showers and thunderstorms will
be to the east and southeast. This is expected to lead to at least
a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the upper basin to
the northern portions of the Palouse. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will be capable of drawing down stronger wind gusts aloft.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: The surface low will begin to track
away from the region across the Canadian border along the state of
Montana. With the low tracking away from the region, this will
allow surface gradients to weaken with a trend toward less windy
conditions across the region. There will be some moisture that
wraps around the low into the region, so a chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon and early
evening. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Temperature will be
much cooler on Wednesday. Much of extreme eastern WA and the ID
Panhandle will only warm up into the low to mid 60s with some
locations in the Panhandle having a hard time breaking 60 degrees.
Showers will dissipate overnight with skies clearing out. This
will result in temperatures plummeting overnight with the cold
pockets across the northern mountain and Panhandle valleys
dipping close to freezing. Frost will be possible, so any
sensitive vegetation should be protected for the potential of
frost or freeze damage. This will include locations such as
Republic and Deer Park. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday: A split flow pattern over the Pacific
Northwest will bring dry weather and light winds to the region
Thursday through Saturday. A light east to northeast pressure
gradient is expected to usher in dry surface dewpoints. The dry
air mass, light winds, and clear skies will allow for large
diurnal temperature swings. The northern valleys around Colville,
Deer Park, Priest Lake and Bonners Ferry will likely experience
low temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s Friday and Saturday
morning with afternoon highs in the low 80s. Jacket weather in the
morning and shorts by the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday: The ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement
that the next shortwave trough will arrive in the Sunday/Monday
time frame. The trough will come at us from the northwest which is
a relatively dry trajectory this time of year, so the forecast for
precipitation is pretty low at this time. If the medium range
models hold true, the cold front associated with this trough will
bring a period of breezy conditions Sunday or Monday and a cooling
trend early next week. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
late this afternoon through this evening. This front will produce
gusty winds from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between
23-02Z and then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites around 03-04Z. Winds will remain breezy through the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
northern mtns late this afternoon into tonight and then begin to
push into KGEG, KSFF and KCOE and possibly as far south as KPUW
Wednesday morning and last at least through the end of the TAF
period. Conditions will remain VFR at all TAF sites with the
possible exception of KCOE after 12Z Wedenesday if shower
development is more intense and widespread than currently
forecast. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  50  63  46  75  49 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  76  50  60  42  75  44 /  10  60  50  20   0   0
Pullman        77  45  65  40  75  43 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       84  53  71  49  80  51 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       78  48  67  38  78  41 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Sandpoint      74  45  58  39  73  40 /  10  70  80  20  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  56  39  71  43 /  10  50  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     82  51  76  45  80  49 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      80  56  77  52  79  54 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           80  52  74  43  80  48 /  20  40  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 021623 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CORRECTED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. RAIN
SHOULD REACH THE NORTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INTO THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY WEATHER WITH
HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON
WEDNESDAY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH SOUND SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY
THURSDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NE
PACIFIC WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN
THE PATTERN. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NWD ALONG
THE WA COAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM IN THIS PATTERN...WITH LOW 80S FROM THE CENTRAL SOUND TO
THE SW INTERIOR.

500 MB HEIGHTS FALL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVES
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH BRINGING MARINE AIR
INLAND AND RESULTING IN MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION SO THE MAIN AFFECT
WILL BE THE CHANGE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S AND POSSIBLY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW A TROUGH CLIPPING THE REGION
BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RAIN PRODUCER.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR THIS MORNING...THEN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND VFR FOR THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY AS CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS...CONVERSELY INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ESTABLISH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA
WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING OVER KING COUNTY. THE TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...GENERALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH MIDDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY 18Z AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 8 TO 10 KT. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE PSCZ FORMING OVER NORTH
KING COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 021623 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CORRECTED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. RAIN
SHOULD REACH THE NORTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INTO THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY WEATHER WITH
HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON
WEDNESDAY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH SOUND SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY
THURSDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NE
PACIFIC WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN
THE PATTERN. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NWD ALONG
THE WA COAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM IN THIS PATTERN...WITH LOW 80S FROM THE CENTRAL SOUND TO
THE SW INTERIOR.

500 MB HEIGHTS FALL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVES
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH BRINGING MARINE AIR
INLAND AND RESULTING IN MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION SO THE MAIN AFFECT
WILL BE THE CHANGE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S AND POSSIBLY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW A TROUGH CLIPPING THE REGION
BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RAIN PRODUCER.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR THIS MORNING...THEN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND VFR FOR THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY AS CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS...CONVERSELY INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ESTABLISH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA
WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING OVER KING COUNTY. THE TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...GENERALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH MIDDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY 18Z AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 8 TO 10 KT. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE PSCZ FORMING OVER NORTH
KING COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 021608
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. RAIN
SHOULD REACH THE NORTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INTO THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY WEATHER WITH
HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON
WEDNESDAY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH SOUND SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY
THURSDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NE
PACIFIC WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN
THE PATTERN. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NWD ALONG
THE WA COAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM IN THIS PATTERN...WITH LOW 80S FROM THE CENTRAL SOUND TO
THE SW INTERIOR.

500 MB HEIGHTS FALL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVES
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH BRINGING MARINE AIR
INLAND AND RESULTING IN MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION SO THE MAIN AFFECT
WILL BE THE CHANGE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S AND POSSIBLY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW A TROUGH CLIPPING THE REGION
BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RAIN PRODUCER.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR THIS MORNING...SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND VFR FOR THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY AS CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS WHILE
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA
WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING OVER KING COUNTY.

THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR AND CASCADES TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL FLIP BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY 18Z. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES NEAR 3000 FT. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 021608
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. RAIN
SHOULD REACH THE NORTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INTO THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY WEATHER WITH
HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON
WEDNESDAY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH SOUND SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY
THURSDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NE
PACIFIC WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN
THE PATTERN. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NWD ALONG
THE WA COAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM IN THIS PATTERN...WITH LOW 80S FROM THE CENTRAL SOUND TO
THE SW INTERIOR.

500 MB HEIGHTS FALL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVES
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH BRINGING MARINE AIR
INLAND AND RESULTING IN MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION SO THE MAIN AFFECT
WILL BE THE CHANGE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S AND POSSIBLY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW A TROUGH CLIPPING THE REGION
BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RAIN PRODUCER.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR THIS MORNING...SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND VFR FOR THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY AS CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS WHILE
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA
WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING OVER KING COUNTY.

THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR AND CASCADES TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL FLIP BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY 18Z. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES NEAR 3000 FT. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 021608
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. RAIN
SHOULD REACH THE NORTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INTO THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY WEATHER WITH
HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON
WEDNESDAY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH SOUND SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY
THURSDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NE
PACIFIC WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN
THE PATTERN. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NWD ALONG
THE WA COAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM IN THIS PATTERN...WITH LOW 80S FROM THE CENTRAL SOUND TO
THE SW INTERIOR.

500 MB HEIGHTS FALL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVES
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH BRINGING MARINE AIR
INLAND AND RESULTING IN MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION SO THE MAIN AFFECT
WILL BE THE CHANGE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S AND POSSIBLY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW A TROUGH CLIPPING THE REGION
BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RAIN PRODUCER.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR THIS MORNING...SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND VFR FOR THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY AS CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS WHILE
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA
WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING OVER KING COUNTY.

THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR AND CASCADES TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL FLIP BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY 18Z. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES NEAR 3000 FT. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 021608
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. RAIN
SHOULD REACH THE NORTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INTO THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE CASCADES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL GIVE SUNNY WEATHER WITH
HIGHS WARMING 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON
WEDNESDAY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH SOUND SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 BY
THURSDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NE
PACIFIC WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN
THE PATTERN. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NWD ALONG
THE WA COAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM IN THIS PATTERN...WITH LOW 80S FROM THE CENTRAL SOUND TO
THE SW INTERIOR.

500 MB HEIGHTS FALL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVES
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH BRINGING MARINE AIR
INLAND AND RESULTING IN MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION SO THE MAIN AFFECT
WILL BE THE CHANGE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S AND POSSIBLY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW A TROUGH CLIPPING THE REGION
BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RAIN PRODUCER.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR THIS MORNING...SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND VFR FOR THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY AS CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS WHILE
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST STRAIT THROUGH THE NORTH PUGET SOUND AREA
WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING OVER KING COUNTY.

THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR AND CASCADES TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL FLIP BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY 18Z. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES NEAR 3000 FT. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN STRAIT...
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 021604
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 AM PDT TUE SEP  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORNING
CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY...AND RESULT IN ONE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE
IS A CHANCE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LAYER
OF MARINE LOW CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE FOOTHILLS FROM TROUTDALE
EASTWARD SOUTHWESTWARD TO EUGENE. THERE IS ALSO SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST AND NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WA COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON LATER TODAY. A TRAILING FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD
TODAY AND WED...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...IT WILL
PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD INTO A POSITION THAT SHOULD
ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL
TURN MID LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
BUILD UP THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...POOR
NIGHT TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND MODEST EAST WINDS ACROSS
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE WILL ENHANCE FIRE WX CONCERNS THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. TW/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS MOISTURE LIMITED FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS
WEEKEND THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE THIS
UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR REMAINS VFR WITH A SCT-BKN DECK
AROUND 4000 FT...THOUGH SOME REMNANTS OF A LOW MVFR STRATUS LAYER
REMAIN ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THESE MAY LINGER A BIT THIS MORNING AND WHILE SOME AREAS MAY
CLEAR...A SCT-BKN LAYER AROUND 4000 FT MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES IN...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AND A CHANCE FOR -RA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE COAST...CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED
WITH LOCAL AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS. AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE
MAY SEE SOME CIGS DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL
AGAIN RETURN TO LOW MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER LATER
THIS EVENING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING... AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME S-SW GUSTS TO
20 KT ALONG THE S WA COAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS AGAIN SHIFT N-NW WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SECOND HALF OF WEEK AS HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND THERMAL LOW PRES EXTENDS N FROM
CALIFORNIA. GUSTS 20-25 KT APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS BY WED AFTERNOON...THEN EXPANDING N ACROSS THE WATERS ON
THU. WINDS SHOULD EASE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRES
WEAKENS.  CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021604
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 AM PDT TUE SEP  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORNING
CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY...AND RESULT IN ONE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE
IS A CHANCE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LAYER
OF MARINE LOW CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE FOOTHILLS FROM TROUTDALE
EASTWARD SOUTHWESTWARD TO EUGENE. THERE IS ALSO SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST AND NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WA COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON LATER TODAY. A TRAILING FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD
TODAY AND WED...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...IT WILL
PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD INTO A POSITION THAT SHOULD
ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL
TURN MID LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
BUILD UP THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...POOR
NIGHT TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND MODEST EAST WINDS ACROSS
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE WILL ENHANCE FIRE WX CONCERNS THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. TW/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS MOISTURE LIMITED FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS
WEEKEND THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE THIS
UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR REMAINS VFR WITH A SCT-BKN DECK
AROUND 4000 FT...THOUGH SOME REMNANTS OF A LOW MVFR STRATUS LAYER
REMAIN ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THESE MAY LINGER A BIT THIS MORNING AND WHILE SOME AREAS MAY
CLEAR...A SCT-BKN LAYER AROUND 4000 FT MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES IN...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AND A CHANCE FOR -RA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. AT THE COAST...CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED
WITH LOCAL AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS. AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE
MAY SEE SOME CIGS DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL
AGAIN RETURN TO LOW MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER LATER
THIS EVENING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING... AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME S-SW GUSTS TO
20 KT ALONG THE S WA COAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS AGAIN SHIFT N-NW WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SECOND HALF OF WEEK AS HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND THERMAL LOW PRES EXTENDS N FROM
CALIFORNIA. GUSTS 20-25 KT APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS BY WED AFTERNOON...THEN EXPANDING N ACROSS THE WATERS ON
THU. WINDS SHOULD EASE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRES
WEAKENS.  CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 021153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
452 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected late this afternoon and early this
evening with the passage of a cold front. The front will also
bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Idaho
Panhandle and northern Washington tonight into Wednesday. Thursday
morning will be cold with low temperatures down into the lower to
mid 30s for the mountain valley locations. The return of high
pressure Thursday through the weekend will bring several days of
dry weather, light winds, and warmer temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Satellite imagery early this morning shows a
potent shortwave trough of lower pressure moving south along the
BC coastline. The trough axis is currently located over central BC
with water vapor imagery showing a well defined dry slot at 50N
135W in the Gulf of Alaska. This dry slot is a good approximation
of the back edge of the cold front. Models have this front progged
to cross east of the Cascade Mtns into the western basin after
5:00 PM this evening and then pushing into the Spokane Area/Palouse
by about 8:00 PM this evening. The mountains will see the best
chances for precip with the front; however, the basin up into the
Spokane Area, Coeur d`Alene Area down to the Palouse and L-C
Valley may only see some passing mid level clouds and possibly
some sprinkles or sporadic showers. There will be strong cold air
advection with the front, which will result in winds picking up
quite a bit along and behind the front. Strongest winds are
expected down the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns out over into
the western basin for the evening hours. Sustained wind speeds of
20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. This is just
below our criteria for a Wind Advisory and a highlight is not
expected at this time. The windy conditions may also result in
some blowing dust across the Moses Lake Area, and could blow
across much of the basin. This may impact travel along I-90, with
the highest risk between George and Ritzville.

Behind the cold front we will see the upper level trough swing
through for the overnight hours. There is enough mid level
instability that widespread showers and even some thunderstorms
will be possible. Best areas for showers and thunderstorms will
be across the Okanogan highlands over to the Northern Panhandle.
The general progression of these showers and thunderstorms will
be to the east and southeast. This is expected to lead to at least
a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the upper basin to
the northern portions of the Palouse. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will be capable of drawing down stronger wind gusts aloft.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: The surface low will begin to track
away from the region across the Canadian border along the state of
Montana. With the low tracking away from the region, this will
allow surface gradients to weaken with a trend toward less windy
conditions across the region. There will be some moisture that
wraps around the low into the region, so a chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon and early
evening. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Temperature will be
much cooler on Wednesday. Much of extreme eastern WA and the ID
Panhandle will only warm up into the low to mid 60s with some
locations in the Panhandle having a hard time breaking 60 degrees.
Showers will dissipate overnight with skies clearing out. This
will result in temperatures plummeting overnight with the cold
pockets across the northern mountain and Panhandle valleys
dipping close to freezing. Frost will be possible, so any
sensitive vegetation should be protected for the potential of
frost or freeze damage. This will include locations such as
Republic and Deer Park. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday: A split flow pattern over the Pacific
Northwest will bring dry weather and light winds to the region
Thursday through Saturday. A light east to northeast pressure
gradient is expected to usher in dry surface dewpoints. The dry
air mass, light winds, and clear skies will allow for large
diurnal temperature swings. The northern valleys around Colville,
Deer Park, Priest Lake and Bonners Ferry will likely experience
low temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s Friday and Saturday
morning with afternoon highs in the low 80s. Jacket weather in the
morning and shorts by the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday: The ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement
that the next shortwave trough will arrive in the Sunday/Monday
time frame. The trough will come at us from the northwest which is
a relatively dry trajectory this time of year, so the forecast for
precipitation is pretty low at this time. If the medium range
models hold true, the cold front associated with this trough will
bring a period of breezy conditions Sunday or Monday and a cooling
trend early next week. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
late this afternoon through this evening. This front will produce
gusty winds from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between
23-02Z and then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS
TAF sites around 03-04Z. Winds will remain breezy through the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
northern mtns late this afternoon into tonight and then begin to
push into KGEG, KSFF and KCOE sometime late tonight into Wednesday
morning. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  50  63  46  75  49 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  76  50  60  42  75  44 /  10  60  50  20   0   0
Pullman        77  45  65  40  75  43 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       84  53  71  49  80  51 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       78  48  67  38  78  41 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Sandpoint      74  45  58  39  73  40 /  10  70  80  20  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  56  39  71  43 /  10  50  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     82  51  76  45  80  49 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      80  56  77  52  79  54 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           80  52  74  43  80  48 /  20  40  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
452 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected late this afternoon and early this
evening with the passage of a cold front. The front will also
bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Idaho
Panhandle and northern Washington tonight into Wednesday. Thursday
morning will be cold with low temperatures down into the lower to
mid 30s for the mountain valley locations. The return of high
pressure Thursday through the weekend will bring several days of
dry weather, light winds, and warmer temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Satellite imagery early this morning shows a
potent shortwave trough of lower pressure moving south along the
BC coastline. The trough axis is currently located over central BC
with water vapor imagery showing a well defined dry slot at 50N
135W in the Gulf of Alaska. This dry slot is a good approximation
of the back edge of the cold front. Models have this front progged
to cross east of the Cascade Mtns into the western basin after
5:00 PM this evening and then pushing into the Spokane Area/Palouse
by about 8:00 PM this evening. The mountains will see the best
chances for precip with the front; however, the basin up into the
Spokane Area, Coeur d`Alene Area down to the Palouse and L-C
Valley may only see some passing mid level clouds and possibly
some sprinkles or sporadic showers. There will be strong cold air
advection with the front, which will result in winds picking up
quite a bit along and behind the front. Strongest winds are
expected down the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns out over into
the western basin for the evening hours. Sustained wind speeds of
20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. This is just
below our criteria for a Wind Advisory and a highlight is not
expected at this time. The windy conditions may also result in
some blowing dust across the Moses Lake Area, and could blow
across much of the basin. This may impact travel along I-90, with
the highest risk between George and Ritzville.

Behind the cold front we will see the upper level trough swing
through for the overnight hours. There is enough mid level
instability that widespread showers and even some thunderstorms
will be possible. Best areas for showers and thunderstorms will
be across the Okanogan highlands over to the Northern Panhandle.
The general progression of these showers and thunderstorms will
be to the east and southeast. This is expected to lead to at least
a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the upper basin to
the northern portions of the Palouse. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will be capable of drawing down stronger wind gusts aloft.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: The surface low will begin to track
away from the region across the Canadian border along the state of
Montana. With the low tracking away from the region, this will
allow surface gradients to weaken with a trend toward less windy
conditions across the region. There will be some moisture that
wraps around the low into the region, so a chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon and early
evening. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Temperature will be
much cooler on Wednesday. Much of extreme eastern WA and the ID
Panhandle will only warm up into the low to mid 60s with some
locations in the Panhandle having a hard time breaking 60 degrees.
Showers will dissipate overnight with skies clearing out. This
will result in temperatures plummeting overnight with the cold
pockets across the northern mountain and Panhandle valleys
dipping close to freezing. Frost will be possible, so any
sensitive vegetation should be protected for the potential of
frost or freeze damage. This will include locations such as
Republic and Deer Park. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday: A split flow pattern over the Pacific
Northwest will bring dry weather and light winds to the region
Thursday through Saturday. A light east to northeast pressure
gradient is expected to usher in dry surface dewpoints. The dry
air mass, light winds, and clear skies will allow for large
diurnal temperature swings. The northern valleys around Colville,
Deer Park, Priest Lake and Bonners Ferry will likely experience
low temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s Friday and Saturday
morning with afternoon highs in the low 80s. Jacket weather in the
morning and shorts by the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday: The ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement
that the next shortwave trough will arrive in the Sunday/Monday
time frame. The trough will come at us from the northwest which is
a relatively dry trajectory this time of year, so the forecast for
precipitation is pretty low at this time. If the medium range
models hold true, the cold front associated with this trough will
bring a period of breezy conditions Sunday or Monday and a cooling
trend early next week. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A strong cold front will cross east of the Cascade Mtns
late this afternoon through this evening. This front will produce
gusty winds from the west and will arrive at KEAT and KMWH between
23-02Z and then push into the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS
TAF sites around 03-04Z. Winds will remain breezy through the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
northern mtns late this afternoon into tonight and then begin to
push into KGEG, KSFF and KCOE sometime late tonight into Wednesday
morning. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  50  63  46  75  49 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  76  50  60  42  75  44 /  10  60  50  20   0   0
Pullman        77  45  65  40  75  43 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       84  53  71  49  80  51 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       78  48  67  38  78  41 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Sandpoint      74  45  58  39  73  40 /  10  70  80  20  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  56  39  71  43 /  10  50  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     82  51  76  45  80  49 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      80  56  77  52  79  54 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           80  52  74  43  80  48 /  20  40  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 021042
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
RAIN AT TIMES TO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FORM OVER PUGET SOUND PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME SUNSHINE
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY RESULTING IN SUN AND A WARMING TREND THAT
WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING
SE ALONG THE B.C. COAST AS MODELS HAVE PREDICTED. SYSTEMS ARRIVING
FROM THE N OFTEN LACK MOISTURE BUT BRING COOLER AIR AND THIS ONE IS
NO DIFFERENT. MODELS INDICATE FALLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED
WHERE IR IMAGERY CLOUD TOP BRIGHTENING IMPLIES SOME FRONTAL ZONE
DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSIFYING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHOULD
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AS IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING.
THE 4KM WRF-GFS/GLOBAL GFS/NAM-12 AGREE WELL WITH A LITTLE LATER
TIMING INDICATING RAIN STARTING OVER THE N COAST JUST BEFORE NOON.
THIS IS A VERY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS AREAS TO THE N AND W OF PUGET SOUND BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
REACHING THE REST OF WRN WA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SE INTO THE INTERIOR PAC NW...QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE N. QPF AMOUNTS WERE BOOSTED JUST A BIT
INDICATING UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE N CASCADES AND MAYBE A
QUARTER INCH OVER THE N INTERIOR. MUCH OF PUGET SOUND WILL GET
SHADOWED OFF THE OLYMPICS WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED
INITIALLY WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY EVENING AS
A CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMS.

THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST MESO MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. POST
FRONTAL FLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH OVER +3 MB
KUIL-KBLI EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL/E
STRAIT. OUTFLOW NW FLOW FROM THE STRAIT WILL MEET THE SOUTHERLIES
OVER N/CENTRAL PUGET SOUND LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AS WELL DEFINED CONVERGENCE ZONE. 850 MB FLOW
TURNS NW BY LATER IN THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE SWD THROUGH SEATTLE...THEN DISSIPATING AS IT CONTINUES SWD.

COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
WIND DOWN. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 6000 FEET BUT
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEAKENING. LOCALLY AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD FALL ABOVE 6500 FEET SO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AT PASS LEVELS. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE CASCADES.

WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF CLOUD AND COOL BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY OVER
THE LOWLANDS. GRADIENTS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NLY. THIS SHOULD HELP CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY TO AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OFFSHORE NEAR 140 W ON THURSDAY.
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CA/OREGON COAST
AND MAY EVEN NUDGE NWD ALONG THE FAR S WA COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE
DRY OFFSHORE OR NLY FLOW OVER WRN WA WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AROUND PUGET SOUND AND MAYBE
NEAR 80 OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW INTERIOR. EVEN THE COAST WILL BEGIN
TO WARM UP IN THIS PATTERN WITH 70S POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN.
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NWD ALONG THE WA COAST
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN
THIS PATTERN...WITH LOW 80S FROM THE CENTRAL SOUND TO THE SW
INTERIOR.

500 MB HEIGHTS FALL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVES
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH BRINGING MARINE AIR
INLAND AND RESULTING IN MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION SO THE MAIN AFFECT
WILL BE THE CHANGE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S AND POSSIBLY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW A TROUGH CLIPPING THE REGION
BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RAIN PRODUCER.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. CEILINGS ARE A MIXED BAG THIS
MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR THIS MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR
AND CASCADES TONIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
FORMING OVER KING COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL FLIP BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY 18Z. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES NEAR 3000 FT. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT A ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST STRAIT...NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KPQR 021009
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS BREAKUP...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY...AND
RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE FOG IS SKIRTING THE CENTRAL
OREGON COASTLINE. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS NEAR TROUTDALE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
RAPIDLY EXPANDING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING CLOUD
FORECAST SO WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE FORECAST DEPENDING ON CLOUD
TRENDS. WHAT CLOUDS DEVELOP INLAND THIS MORNING SHOULD TEMPORARILY
BREAK UP TOWARDS MIDDAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON TODAY. A TRAILING FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. POPS WERE BUMPED UPWARDS...BUT QPF
STILL LOOKS MEAGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL PUSH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTHWARD...AND INTO A POSITION THAT SHOULD ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL
TURN MID LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
BUILD UP THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...POOR
NIGHT TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND MODEST EAST WINDS ACROSS
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE WILL ENHANCE FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE
MENTION OF SMOKE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF LANE
COUNTY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DECEPTION FIRE COMPLEX. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS MOISTURE LIMITED FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS
WEEKEND THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE THIS
UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT THE MARINE LAYER
THAT HAD BEEN PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THE GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. THIS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW IN THE FORMATION OF A
LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK NEAR KTTD. SUSPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND
OVER THE COMING HOURS AND CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL BE COMMON IN THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY SUNRISE...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS KSLE. WITH DECENT ONSHORE FLOW IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE PDX METRO...
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 20Z...AND EVEN THEN IT MAY JUST TURN INTO A
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AROUND 3000 FT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH
IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN SOME -RA
POSSIBLE NEAR KAST AROUND 00Z AS THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WASHINGTON.  WEAGLE

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z. THIS
LIKELY LIFTS INTO A SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 3500 FT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER 01Z WITH MVFR
CIGS RE-FORMING DURING THE EVENING.  WEAGLE/SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL N-NW WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT. WINDS LIKELY EASE AND BACK LATER TODAY AS
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT DOES SO. FRONT MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME S-SW
GUSTS 15-20 KT ALONG THE S WA COAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS
SHIFT TO N-NW AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT BUT
AGAIN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WED/THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. GUSTS 20-25 KT APPEAR
LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS WED
AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGHOUT OUR WATERS THURSDAY. SEAS MAY APPROACH
10 FT IN THE S WA COASTAL WATERS WED DUE TO SOME NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM COMBINING WITH WIND WAVES.
SEAS SHOULD EASILY REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE CHOPPY WED/THU AS N-NW WINDS INCREASE WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH. LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS APPEAR LIKELY FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OFFSHORE.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021009
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS BREAKUP...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY...AND
RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE FOG IS SKIRTING THE CENTRAL
OREGON COASTLINE. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS NEAR TROUTDALE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
RAPIDLY EXPANDING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING CLOUD
FORECAST SO WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE FORECAST DEPENDING ON CLOUD
TRENDS. WHAT CLOUDS DEVELOP INLAND THIS MORNING SHOULD TEMPORARILY
BREAK UP TOWARDS MIDDAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON TODAY. A TRAILING FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. POPS WERE BUMPED UPWARDS...BUT QPF
STILL LOOKS MEAGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL PUSH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTHWARD...AND INTO A POSITION THAT SHOULD ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL
TURN MID LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
BUILD UP THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...POOR
NIGHT TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND MODEST EAST WINDS ACROSS
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE WILL ENHANCE FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE
MENTION OF SMOKE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF LANE
COUNTY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DECEPTION FIRE COMPLEX. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS MOISTURE LIMITED FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS
WEEKEND THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE THIS
UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT THE MARINE LAYER
THAT HAD BEEN PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THE GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. THIS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW IN THE FORMATION OF A
LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK NEAR KTTD. SUSPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND
OVER THE COMING HOURS AND CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL BE COMMON IN THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY SUNRISE...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS KSLE. WITH DECENT ONSHORE FLOW IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE PDX METRO...
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 20Z...AND EVEN THEN IT MAY JUST TURN INTO A
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AROUND 3000 FT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH
IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN SOME -RA
POSSIBLE NEAR KAST AROUND 00Z AS THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WASHINGTON.  WEAGLE

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z. THIS
LIKELY LIFTS INTO A SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 3500 FT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER 01Z WITH MVFR
CIGS RE-FORMING DURING THE EVENING.  WEAGLE/SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL N-NW WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT. WINDS LIKELY EASE AND BACK LATER TODAY AS
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT DOES SO. FRONT MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME S-SW
GUSTS 15-20 KT ALONG THE S WA COAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS
SHIFT TO N-NW AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT BUT
AGAIN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WED/THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. GUSTS 20-25 KT APPEAR
LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS WED
AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGHOUT OUR WATERS THURSDAY. SEAS MAY APPROACH
10 FT IN THE S WA COASTAL WATERS WED DUE TO SOME NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM COMBINING WITH WIND WAVES.
SEAS SHOULD EASILY REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE CHOPPY WED/THU AS N-NW WINDS INCREASE WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH. LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS APPEAR LIKELY FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OFFSHORE.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021009
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS BREAKUP...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY...AND
RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE FOG IS SKIRTING THE CENTRAL
OREGON COASTLINE. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS NEAR TROUTDALE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
RAPIDLY EXPANDING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING CLOUD
FORECAST SO WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE FORECAST DEPENDING ON CLOUD
TRENDS. WHAT CLOUDS DEVELOP INLAND THIS MORNING SHOULD TEMPORARILY
BREAK UP TOWARDS MIDDAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON TODAY. A TRAILING FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. POPS WERE BUMPED UPWARDS...BUT QPF
STILL LOOKS MEAGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL PUSH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTHWARD...AND INTO A POSITION THAT SHOULD ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL
TURN MID LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
BUILD UP THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...POOR
NIGHT TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND MODEST EAST WINDS ACROSS
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE WILL ENHANCE FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE
MENTION OF SMOKE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF LANE
COUNTY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DECEPTION FIRE COMPLEX. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS MOISTURE LIMITED FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS
WEEKEND THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE THIS
UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT THE MARINE LAYER
THAT HAD BEEN PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THE GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. THIS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW IN THE FORMATION OF A
LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK NEAR KTTD. SUSPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND
OVER THE COMING HOURS AND CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL BE COMMON IN THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY SUNRISE...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS KSLE. WITH DECENT ONSHORE FLOW IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE PDX METRO...
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 20Z...AND EVEN THEN IT MAY JUST TURN INTO A
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AROUND 3000 FT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH
IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN SOME -RA
POSSIBLE NEAR KAST AROUND 00Z AS THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WASHINGTON.  WEAGLE

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z. THIS
LIKELY LIFTS INTO A SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 3500 FT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER 01Z WITH MVFR
CIGS RE-FORMING DURING THE EVENING.  WEAGLE/SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL N-NW WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT. WINDS LIKELY EASE AND BACK LATER TODAY AS
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT DOES SO. FRONT MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME S-SW
GUSTS 15-20 KT ALONG THE S WA COAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS
SHIFT TO N-NW AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT BUT
AGAIN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WED/THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. GUSTS 20-25 KT APPEAR
LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS WED
AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGHOUT OUR WATERS THURSDAY. SEAS MAY APPROACH
10 FT IN THE S WA COASTAL WATERS WED DUE TO SOME NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM COMBINING WITH WIND WAVES.
SEAS SHOULD EASILY REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE CHOPPY WED/THU AS N-NW WINDS INCREASE WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH. LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS APPEAR LIKELY FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OFFSHORE.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021009
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS BREAKUP...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY...AND
RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE FOG IS SKIRTING THE CENTRAL
OREGON COASTLINE. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS NEAR TROUTDALE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
RAPIDLY EXPANDING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING CLOUD
FORECAST SO WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE FORECAST DEPENDING ON CLOUD
TRENDS. WHAT CLOUDS DEVELOP INLAND THIS MORNING SHOULD TEMPORARILY
BREAK UP TOWARDS MIDDAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON TODAY. A TRAILING FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. POPS WERE BUMPED UPWARDS...BUT QPF
STILL LOOKS MEAGER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL PUSH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTHWARD...AND INTO A POSITION THAT SHOULD ALLOW MARINE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL
TURN MID LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
BUILD UP THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...POOR
NIGHT TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND MODEST EAST WINDS ACROSS
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE WILL ENHANCE FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE
MENTION OF SMOKE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF LANE
COUNTY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DECEPTION FIRE COMPLEX. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS MOISTURE LIMITED FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS
WEEKEND THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF
HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE THIS
UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT THE MARINE LAYER
THAT HAD BEEN PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. IT
APPEARS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THE GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. THIS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW IN THE FORMATION OF A
LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK NEAR KTTD. SUSPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND
OVER THE COMING HOURS AND CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL BE COMMON IN THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY SUNRISE...INCLUDING THE PDX METRO
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS KSLE. WITH DECENT ONSHORE FLOW IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE PDX METRO...
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 20Z...AND EVEN THEN IT MAY JUST TURN INTO A
SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AROUND 3000 FT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH
IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN SOME -RA
POSSIBLE NEAR KAST AROUND 00Z AS THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WASHINGTON.  WEAGLE

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z. THIS
LIKELY LIFTS INTO A SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 3500 FT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER 01Z WITH MVFR
CIGS RE-FORMING DURING THE EVENING.  WEAGLE/SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL N-NW WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT. WINDS LIKELY EASE AND BACK LATER TODAY AS
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT DOES SO. FRONT MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME S-SW
GUSTS 15-20 KT ALONG THE S WA COAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS
SHIFT TO N-NW AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT BUT
AGAIN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WED/THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. GUSTS 20-25 KT APPEAR
LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS WED
AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGHOUT OUR WATERS THURSDAY. SEAS MAY APPROACH
10 FT IN THE S WA COASTAL WATERS WED DUE TO SOME NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM COMBINING WITH WIND WAVES.
SEAS SHOULD EASILY REMAIN BELOW 10 FT FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE CHOPPY WED/THU AS N-NW WINDS INCREASE WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH. LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS APPEAR LIKELY FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OFFSHORE.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021002
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
302 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected late this afternoon and early this
evening with the passage of a cold front. The front will also
bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Idaho
Panhandle and northern Washington tonight into Wednesday. Thursday
morning will be cold with low temperatures down into the lower to
mid 30s for the mountain valley locations. The return of high
pressure Thursday through the weekend will bring several days of
dry weather, light winds, and warmer temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Satellite imagery early this morning shows a
potent shortwave trough of lower pressure moving south along the
BC coastline. The trough axis is currently located over central BC
with water vapor imagery showing a well defined dry slot at 50N
135W in the Gulf of Alaska. This dry slot is a good approximation
of the back edge of the cold front. Models have this front progged
to cross east of the Cascade Mtns into the western basin after
5:00 PM this evening and then pushing into the Spokane Area/Palouse
by about 8:00 PM this evening. The mountains will see the best
chances for precip with the front; however, the basin up into the
Spokane Area, Coeur d`Alene Area down to the Palouse and L-C
Valley may only see some passing mid level clouds and possibly
some sprinkles or sporadic showers. There will be strong cold air
advection with the front, which will result in winds picking up
quite a bit along and behind the front. Strongest winds are
expected down the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns out over into
the western basin for the evening hours. Sustained wind speeds of
20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. This is just
below our criteria for a Wind Advisory and a highlight is not
expected at this time. The windy conditions may also result in
some blowing dust across the Moses Lake Area, and could blow
across much of the basin. This may impact travel along I-90, with
the highest risk between George and Ritzville.

Behind the cold front we will see the upper level trough swing
through for the overnight hours. There is enough mid level
instability that widespread showers and even some thunderstorms
will be possible. Best areas for showers and thunderstorms will
be across the Okanogan highlands over to the Northern Panhandle.
The general progression of these showers and thunderstorms will
be to the east and southeast. This is expected to lead to at least
a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the upper basin to
the northern portions of the Palouse. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will be capable of drawing down stronger wind gusts aloft.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: The surface low will begin to track
away from the region across the Canadian border along the state of
Montana. With the low tracking away from the region, this will
allow surface gradients to weaken with a trend toward less windy
conditions across the region. There will be some moisture that
wraps around the low into the region, so a chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon and early
evening. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Temperature will be
much cooler on Wednesday. Much of extreme eastern WA and the ID
Panhandle will only warm up into the low to mid 60s with some
locations in the Panhandle having a hard time breaking 60 degrees.
Showers will dissipate overnight with skies clearing out. This
will result in temperatures plummeting overnight with the cold
pockets across the northern mountain and Panhandle valleys
dipping close to freezing. Frost will be possible, so any
sensitive vegetation should be protected for the potential of
frost or freeze damage. This will include locations such as
Republic and Deer Park. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday: A split flow pattern over the Pacific
Northwest will bring dry weather and light winds to the region
Thursday through Saturday. A light east to northeast pressure
gradient is expected to usher in dry surface dewpoints. The dry
air mass, light winds, and clear skies will allow for large
diurnal temperature swings. The northern valleys around Colville,
Deer Park, Priest Lake and Bonners Ferry will likely experience
low temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s Friday and Saturday
morning with afternoon highs in the low 80s. Jacket weather in the
morning and shorts by the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday: The ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement
that the next shortwave trough will arrive in the Sunday/Monday
time frame. The trough will come at us from the northwest which is
a relatively dry trajectory this time of year, so the forecast for
precipitation is pretty low at this time. If the medium range
models hold true, the cold front associated with this trough will
bring a period of breezy conditions Sunday or Monday and a cooling
trend early next week. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep upper level trough will approach Tuesday
afternoon...then sending a strong cold front through North Central
Washington (including KEAT, KMWH) between 0-3z Wed...and then
across Eastern WA/N Idaho 3-6z. The timing of the strong cold
advection will coincide during better mixing potential in North
Central Washington with gusts 30-35 kts expected...with gusts
mostly between 20-30 kts elsewhere. Winds may pick up patchy
blowing dust around KMWH. The best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be in the
northern mountains although a few showers may develop around
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE 3-6z Wed.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  50  63  46  75  49 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  76  50  60  42  75  44 /  10  60  50  20   0   0
Pullman        77  45  65  40  75  43 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       84  53  71  49  80  51 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       78  48  67  38  78  41 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Sandpoint      74  45  58  39  73  40 /  10  70  80  20  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  56  39  71  43 /  10  50  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     82  51  76  45  80  49 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      80  56  77  52  79  54 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           80  52  74  43  80  48 /  20  40  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021002
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
302 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected late this afternoon and early this
evening with the passage of a cold front. The front will also
bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Idaho
Panhandle and northern Washington tonight into Wednesday. Thursday
morning will be cold with low temperatures down into the lower to
mid 30s for the mountain valley locations. The return of high
pressure Thursday through the weekend will bring several days of
dry weather, light winds, and warmer temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Satellite imagery early this morning shows a
potent shortwave trough of lower pressure moving south along the
BC coastline. The trough axis is currently located over central BC
with water vapor imagery showing a well defined dry slot at 50N
135W in the Gulf of Alaska. This dry slot is a good approximation
of the back edge of the cold front. Models have this front progged
to cross east of the Cascade Mtns into the western basin after
5:00 PM this evening and then pushing into the Spokane Area/Palouse
by about 8:00 PM this evening. The mountains will see the best
chances for precip with the front; however, the basin up into the
Spokane Area, Coeur d`Alene Area down to the Palouse and L-C
Valley may only see some passing mid level clouds and possibly
some sprinkles or sporadic showers. There will be strong cold air
advection with the front, which will result in winds picking up
quite a bit along and behind the front. Strongest winds are
expected down the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns out over into
the western basin for the evening hours. Sustained wind speeds of
20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. This is just
below our criteria for a Wind Advisory and a highlight is not
expected at this time. The windy conditions may also result in
some blowing dust across the Moses Lake Area, and could blow
across much of the basin. This may impact travel along I-90, with
the highest risk between George and Ritzville.

Behind the cold front we will see the upper level trough swing
through for the overnight hours. There is enough mid level
instability that widespread showers and even some thunderstorms
will be possible. Best areas for showers and thunderstorms will
be across the Okanogan highlands over to the Northern Panhandle.
The general progression of these showers and thunderstorms will
be to the east and southeast. This is expected to lead to at least
a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the upper basin to
the northern portions of the Palouse. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will be capable of drawing down stronger wind gusts aloft.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: The surface low will begin to track
away from the region across the Canadian border along the state of
Montana. With the low tracking away from the region, this will
allow surface gradients to weaken with a trend toward less windy
conditions across the region. There will be some moisture that
wraps around the low into the region, so a chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon and early
evening. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Temperature will be
much cooler on Wednesday. Much of extreme eastern WA and the ID
Panhandle will only warm up into the low to mid 60s with some
locations in the Panhandle having a hard time breaking 60 degrees.
Showers will dissipate overnight with skies clearing out. This
will result in temperatures plummeting overnight with the cold
pockets across the northern mountain and Panhandle valleys
dipping close to freezing. Frost will be possible, so any
sensitive vegetation should be protected for the potential of
frost or freeze damage. This will include locations such as
Republic and Deer Park. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday: A split flow pattern over the Pacific
Northwest will bring dry weather and light winds to the region
Thursday through Saturday. A light east to northeast pressure
gradient is expected to usher in dry surface dewpoints. The dry
air mass, light winds, and clear skies will allow for large
diurnal temperature swings. The northern valleys around Colville,
Deer Park, Priest Lake and Bonners Ferry will likely experience
low temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s Friday and Saturday
morning with afternoon highs in the low 80s. Jacket weather in the
morning and shorts by the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday: The ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement
that the next shortwave trough will arrive in the Sunday/Monday
time frame. The trough will come at us from the northwest which is
a relatively dry trajectory this time of year, so the forecast for
precipitation is pretty low at this time. If the medium range
models hold true, the cold front associated with this trough will
bring a period of breezy conditions Sunday or Monday and a cooling
trend early next week. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep upper level trough will approach Tuesday
afternoon...then sending a strong cold front through North Central
Washington (including KEAT, KMWH) between 0-3z Wed...and then
across Eastern WA/N Idaho 3-6z. The timing of the strong cold
advection will coincide during better mixing potential in North
Central Washington with gusts 30-35 kts expected...with gusts
mostly between 20-30 kts elsewhere. Winds may pick up patchy
blowing dust around KMWH. The best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be in the
northern mountains although a few showers may develop around
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE 3-6z Wed.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  50  63  46  75  49 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  76  50  60  42  75  44 /  10  60  50  20   0   0
Pullman        77  45  65  40  75  43 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       84  53  71  49  80  51 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       78  48  67  38  78  41 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Sandpoint      74  45  58  39  73  40 /  10  70  80  20  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  56  39  71  43 /  10  50  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     82  51  76  45  80  49 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      80  56  77  52  79  54 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           80  52  74  43  80  48 /  20  40  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021002
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
302 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected late this afternoon and early this
evening with the passage of a cold front. The front will also
bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Idaho
Panhandle and northern Washington tonight into Wednesday. Thursday
morning will be cold with low temperatures down into the lower to
mid 30s for the mountain valley locations. The return of high
pressure Thursday through the weekend will bring several days of
dry weather, light winds, and warmer temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Satellite imagery early this morning shows a
potent shortwave trough of lower pressure moving south along the
BC coastline. The trough axis is currently located over central BC
with water vapor imagery showing a well defined dry slot at 50N
135W in the Gulf of Alaska. This dry slot is a good approximation
of the back edge of the cold front. Models have this front progged
to cross east of the Cascade Mtns into the western basin after
5:00 PM this evening and then pushing into the Spokane Area/Palouse
by about 8:00 PM this evening. The mountains will see the best
chances for precip with the front; however, the basin up into the
Spokane Area, Coeur d`Alene Area down to the Palouse and L-C
Valley may only see some passing mid level clouds and possibly
some sprinkles or sporadic showers. There will be strong cold air
advection with the front, which will result in winds picking up
quite a bit along and behind the front. Strongest winds are
expected down the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns out over into
the western basin for the evening hours. Sustained wind speeds of
20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. This is just
below our criteria for a Wind Advisory and a highlight is not
expected at this time. The windy conditions may also result in
some blowing dust across the Moses Lake Area, and could blow
across much of the basin. This may impact travel along I-90, with
the highest risk between George and Ritzville.

Behind the cold front we will see the upper level trough swing
through for the overnight hours. There is enough mid level
instability that widespread showers and even some thunderstorms
will be possible. Best areas for showers and thunderstorms will
be across the Okanogan highlands over to the Northern Panhandle.
The general progression of these showers and thunderstorms will
be to the east and southeast. This is expected to lead to at least
a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the upper basin to
the northern portions of the Palouse. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will be capable of drawing down stronger wind gusts aloft.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: The surface low will begin to track
away from the region across the Canadian border along the state of
Montana. With the low tracking away from the region, this will
allow surface gradients to weaken with a trend toward less windy
conditions across the region. There will be some moisture that
wraps around the low into the region, so a chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon and early
evening. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Temperature will be
much cooler on Wednesday. Much of extreme eastern WA and the ID
Panhandle will only warm up into the low to mid 60s with some
locations in the Panhandle having a hard time breaking 60 degrees.
Showers will dissipate overnight with skies clearing out. This
will result in temperatures plummeting overnight with the cold
pockets across the northern mountain and Panhandle valleys
dipping close to freezing. Frost will be possible, so any
sensitive vegetation should be protected for the potential of
frost or freeze damage. This will include locations such as
Republic and Deer Park. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday: A split flow pattern over the Pacific
Northwest will bring dry weather and light winds to the region
Thursday through Saturday. A light east to northeast pressure
gradient is expected to usher in dry surface dewpoints. The dry
air mass, light winds, and clear skies will allow for large
diurnal temperature swings. The northern valleys around Colville,
Deer Park, Priest Lake and Bonners Ferry will likely experience
low temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s Friday and Saturday
morning with afternoon highs in the low 80s. Jacket weather in the
morning and shorts by the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday: The ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement
that the next shortwave trough will arrive in the Sunday/Monday
time frame. The trough will come at us from the northwest which is
a relatively dry trajectory this time of year, so the forecast for
precipitation is pretty low at this time. If the medium range
models hold true, the cold front associated with this trough will
bring a period of breezy conditions Sunday or Monday and a cooling
trend early next week. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep upper level trough will approach Tuesday
afternoon...then sending a strong cold front through North Central
Washington (including KEAT, KMWH) between 0-3z Wed...and then
across Eastern WA/N Idaho 3-6z. The timing of the strong cold
advection will coincide during better mixing potential in North
Central Washington with gusts 30-35 kts expected...with gusts
mostly between 20-30 kts elsewhere. Winds may pick up patchy
blowing dust around KMWH. The best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be in the
northern mountains although a few showers may develop around
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE 3-6z Wed.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  50  63  46  75  49 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  76  50  60  42  75  44 /  10  60  50  20   0   0
Pullman        77  45  65  40  75  43 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       84  53  71  49  80  51 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       78  48  67  38  78  41 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Sandpoint      74  45  58  39  73  40 /  10  70  80  20  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  56  39  71  43 /  10  50  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     82  51  76  45  80  49 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      80  56  77  52  79  54 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           80  52  74  43  80  48 /  20  40  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021002
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
302 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected late this afternoon and early this
evening with the passage of a cold front. The front will also
bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Idaho
Panhandle and northern Washington tonight into Wednesday. Thursday
morning will be cold with low temperatures down into the lower to
mid 30s for the mountain valley locations. The return of high
pressure Thursday through the weekend will bring several days of
dry weather, light winds, and warmer temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Satellite imagery early this morning shows a
potent shortwave trough of lower pressure moving south along the
BC coastline. The trough axis is currently located over central BC
with water vapor imagery showing a well defined dry slot at 50N
135W in the Gulf of Alaska. This dry slot is a good approximation
of the back edge of the cold front. Models have this front progged
to cross east of the Cascade Mtns into the western basin after
5:00 PM this evening and then pushing into the Spokane Area/Palouse
by about 8:00 PM this evening. The mountains will see the best
chances for precip with the front; however, the basin up into the
Spokane Area, Coeur d`Alene Area down to the Palouse and L-C
Valley may only see some passing mid level clouds and possibly
some sprinkles or sporadic showers. There will be strong cold air
advection with the front, which will result in winds picking up
quite a bit along and behind the front. Strongest winds are
expected down the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns out over into
the western basin for the evening hours. Sustained wind speeds of
20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. This is just
below our criteria for a Wind Advisory and a highlight is not
expected at this time. The windy conditions may also result in
some blowing dust across the Moses Lake Area, and could blow
across much of the basin. This may impact travel along I-90, with
the highest risk between George and Ritzville.

Behind the cold front we will see the upper level trough swing
through for the overnight hours. There is enough mid level
instability that widespread showers and even some thunderstorms
will be possible. Best areas for showers and thunderstorms will
be across the Okanogan highlands over to the Northern Panhandle.
The general progression of these showers and thunderstorms will
be to the east and southeast. This is expected to lead to at least
a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the upper basin to
the northern portions of the Palouse. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will be capable of drawing down stronger wind gusts aloft.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: The surface low will begin to track
away from the region across the Canadian border along the state of
Montana. With the low tracking away from the region, this will
allow surface gradients to weaken with a trend toward less windy
conditions across the region. There will be some moisture that
wraps around the low into the region, so a chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon and early
evening. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Temperature will be
much cooler on Wednesday. Much of extreme eastern WA and the ID
Panhandle will only warm up into the low to mid 60s with some
locations in the Panhandle having a hard time breaking 60 degrees.
Showers will dissipate overnight with skies clearing out. This
will result in temperatures plummeting overnight with the cold
pockets across the northern mountain and Panhandle valleys
dipping close to freezing. Frost will be possible, so any
sensitive vegetation should be protected for the potential of
frost or freeze damage. This will include locations such as
Republic and Deer Park. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday: A split flow pattern over the Pacific
Northwest will bring dry weather and light winds to the region
Thursday through Saturday. A light east to northeast pressure
gradient is expected to usher in dry surface dewpoints. The dry
air mass, light winds, and clear skies will allow for large
diurnal temperature swings. The northern valleys around Colville,
Deer Park, Priest Lake and Bonners Ferry will likely experience
low temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s Friday and Saturday
morning with afternoon highs in the low 80s. Jacket weather in the
morning and shorts by the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday: The ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement
that the next shortwave trough will arrive in the Sunday/Monday
time frame. The trough will come at us from the northwest which is
a relatively dry trajectory this time of year, so the forecast for
precipitation is pretty low at this time. If the medium range
models hold true, the cold front associated with this trough will
bring a period of breezy conditions Sunday or Monday and a cooling
trend early next week. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep upper level trough will approach Tuesday
afternoon...then sending a strong cold front through North Central
Washington (including KEAT, KMWH) between 0-3z Wed...and then
across Eastern WA/N Idaho 3-6z. The timing of the strong cold
advection will coincide during better mixing potential in North
Central Washington with gusts 30-35 kts expected...with gusts
mostly between 20-30 kts elsewhere. Winds may pick up patchy
blowing dust around KMWH. The best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be in the
northern mountains although a few showers may develop around
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE 3-6z Wed.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  50  63  46  75  49 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  76  50  60  42  75  44 /  10  60  50  20   0   0
Pullman        77  45  65  40  75  43 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       84  53  71  49  80  51 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       78  48  67  38  78  41 /  10  60  40  10   0   0
Sandpoint      74  45  58  39  73  40 /  10  70  80  20  10   0
Kellogg        71  47  56  39  71  43 /  10  50  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     82  51  76  45  80  49 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      80  56  77  52  79  54 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           80  52  74  43  80  48 /  20  40  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 020531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by Saturday. Saturday night through
Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest. However
models continue to vary over the evolution, especially timing.
Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early next week.
A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and expands
toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include areas as
far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However there is too
much model disagreement to have high confidence. The incoming
trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by Monday.
/J.Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep upper level trough will approach Tuesday
afternoon...then sending a strong cold front through North Central
Washington (including KEAT, KMWH) between 0-3z Wed...and then
across Eastern WA/N Idaho 3-6z. The timing of the strong cold
advection will coincide during better mixing potential in North
Central Washington with gusts 30-35 kts expected...with gusts
mostly between 20-30 kts elsewhere. Winds may pick up patchy
blowing dust around KMWH. The best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be in the
northern mountains although a few showers may develop around
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE 3-6z Wed.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by Saturday. Saturday night through
Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest. However
models continue to vary over the evolution, especially timing.
Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early next week.
A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and expands
toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include areas as
far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However there is too
much model disagreement to have high confidence. The incoming
trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by Monday.
/J.Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep upper level trough will approach Tuesday
afternoon...then sending a strong cold front through North Central
Washington (including KEAT, KMWH) between 0-3z Wed...and then
across Eastern WA/N Idaho 3-6z. The timing of the strong cold
advection will coincide during better mixing potential in North
Central Washington with gusts 30-35 kts expected...with gusts
mostly between 20-30 kts elsewhere. Winds may pick up patchy
blowing dust around KMWH. The best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be in the
northern mountains although a few showers may develop around
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE 3-6z Wed.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by Saturday. Saturday night through
Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest. However
models continue to vary over the evolution, especially timing.
Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early next week.
A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and expands
toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include areas as
far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However there is too
much model disagreement to have high confidence. The incoming
trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by Monday.
/J.Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep upper level trough will approach Tuesday
afternoon...then sending a strong cold front through North Central
Washington (including KEAT, KMWH) between 0-3z Wed...and then
across Eastern WA/N Idaho 3-6z. The timing of the strong cold
advection will coincide during better mixing potential in North
Central Washington with gusts 30-35 kts expected...with gusts
mostly between 20-30 kts elsewhere. Winds may pick up patchy
blowing dust around KMWH. The best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be in the
northern mountains although a few showers may develop around
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE 3-6z Wed.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by Saturday. Saturday night through
Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest. However
models continue to vary over the evolution, especially timing.
Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early next week.
A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and expands
toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include areas as
far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However there is too
much model disagreement to have high confidence. The incoming
trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by Monday.
/J.Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A deep upper level trough will approach Tuesday
afternoon...then sending a strong cold front through North Central
Washington (including KEAT, KMWH) between 0-3z Wed...and then
across Eastern WA/N Idaho 3-6z. The timing of the strong cold
advection will coincide during better mixing potential in North
Central Washington with gusts 30-35 kts expected...with gusts
mostly between 20-30 kts elsewhere. Winds may pick up patchy
blowing dust around KMWH. The best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be in the
northern mountains although a few showers may develop around
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE 3-6z Wed.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MARINE STRATUS IS FORMING IN NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING SHOULD SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH PARTIALLY
INLAND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
FAR NORTHERN PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUDS CLEARED FOR MOST
EVERYONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ARE
SHOWING MARINE STRATUS BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST IN NW
FLOW. EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN PUSH AT LEAST PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS BETTER ONSHORE GRADIENT AT CURRENT THAN WE
SAW 24 HRS AGO...SO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST FILL IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN UP TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. LESS CLEAR IS
WHETHER CLOUDS WILL FILL THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL GET ENOUGH EXTRA PUSH FROM AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT AND COULD GET A LITTLE RAIN AS WELL.THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. PYLE/TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE
MARINE INVERSION TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS CLEARED ALL
BUT THE NORTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS BUT THIS DECK COULD LOWER TO IFR 11Z-16Z.
FROM FLORENCE TO KONP EXPECT MORE IFR LOW CIGS AND VIS TO DEVELOP
AFT 06Z...CAN ALREADY SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP INTO KSPB-KTTD AFTER 10Z OR SO
AND PROBABLY TO KSLE 13-19Z. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEEK FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INLAND TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z.
. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER ARE 01-06Z WEDNESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED AND HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BUT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WESTERLY WINDS
BRIEFLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
ESPECIALLY
IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...3 TO 5FT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... BUT SEAS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MARINE STRATUS IS FORMING IN NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING SHOULD SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH PARTIALLY
INLAND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
FAR NORTHERN PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUDS CLEARED FOR MOST
EVERYONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ARE
SHOWING MARINE STRATUS BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST IN NW
FLOW. EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN PUSH AT LEAST PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS BETTER ONSHORE GRADIENT AT CURRENT THAN WE
SAW 24 HRS AGO...SO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST FILL IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN UP TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. LESS CLEAR IS
WHETHER CLOUDS WILL FILL THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL GET ENOUGH EXTRA PUSH FROM AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT AND COULD GET A LITTLE RAIN AS WELL.THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. PYLE/TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE
MARINE INVERSION TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS CLEARED ALL
BUT THE NORTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS BUT THIS DECK COULD LOWER TO IFR 11Z-16Z.
FROM FLORENCE TO KONP EXPECT MORE IFR LOW CIGS AND VIS TO DEVELOP
AFT 06Z...CAN ALREADY SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP INTO KSPB-KTTD AFTER 10Z OR SO
AND PROBABLY TO KSLE 13-19Z. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEEK FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INLAND TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z.
. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER ARE 01-06Z WEDNESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED AND HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BUT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WESTERLY WINDS
BRIEFLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
ESPECIALLY
IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...3 TO 5FT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... BUT SEAS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MARINE STRATUS IS FORMING IN NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING SHOULD SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH PARTIALLY
INLAND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
FAR NORTHERN PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUDS CLEARED FOR MOST
EVERYONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ARE
SHOWING MARINE STRATUS BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST IN NW
FLOW. EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN PUSH AT LEAST PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS BETTER ONSHORE GRADIENT AT CURRENT THAN WE
SAW 24 HRS AGO...SO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST FILL IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN UP TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. LESS CLEAR IS
WHETHER CLOUDS WILL FILL THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL GET ENOUGH EXTRA PUSH FROM AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT AND COULD GET A LITTLE RAIN AS WELL.THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. PYLE/TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE
MARINE INVERSION TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS CLEARED ALL
BUT THE NORTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS BUT THIS DECK COULD LOWER TO IFR 11Z-16Z.
FROM FLORENCE TO KONP EXPECT MORE IFR LOW CIGS AND VIS TO DEVELOP
AFT 06Z...CAN ALREADY SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP INTO KSPB-KTTD AFTER 10Z OR SO
AND PROBABLY TO KSLE 13-19Z. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEEK FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INLAND TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z.
. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER ARE 01-06Z WEDNESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED AND HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BUT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WESTERLY WINDS
BRIEFLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
ESPECIALLY
IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...3 TO 5FT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... BUT SEAS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MARINE STRATUS IS FORMING IN NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING SHOULD SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH PARTIALLY
INLAND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
FAR NORTHERN PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUDS CLEARED FOR MOST
EVERYONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ARE
SHOWING MARINE STRATUS BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST IN NW
FLOW. EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN PUSH AT LEAST PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS BETTER ONSHORE GRADIENT AT CURRENT THAN WE
SAW 24 HRS AGO...SO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST FILL IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN UP TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. LESS CLEAR IS
WHETHER CLOUDS WILL FILL THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL GET ENOUGH EXTRA PUSH FROM AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT AND COULD GET A LITTLE RAIN AS WELL.THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. PYLE/TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE
MARINE INVERSION TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS CLEARED ALL
BUT THE NORTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS BUT THIS DECK COULD LOWER TO IFR 11Z-16Z.
FROM FLORENCE TO KONP EXPECT MORE IFR LOW CIGS AND VIS TO DEVELOP
AFT 06Z...CAN ALREADY SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP INTO KSPB-KTTD AFTER 10Z OR SO
AND PROBABLY TO KSLE 13-19Z. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEEK FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INLAND TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z.
. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER ARE 01-06Z WEDNESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED AND HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BUT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WESTERLY WINDS
BRIEFLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
ESPECIALLY
IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...3 TO 5FT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... BUT SEAS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MARINE STRATUS IS FORMING IN NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING SHOULD SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH PARTIALLY
INLAND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
FAR NORTHERN PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUDS CLEARED FOR MOST
EVERYONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ARE
SHOWING MARINE STRATUS BEGINNING TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST IN NW
FLOW. EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN PUSH AT LEAST PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS BETTER ONSHORE GRADIENT AT CURRENT THAN WE
SAW 24 HRS AGO...SO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST FILL IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN UP TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. LESS CLEAR IS
WHETHER CLOUDS WILL FILL THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL GET ENOUGH EXTRA PUSH FROM AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT AND COULD GET A LITTLE RAIN AS WELL.THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. PYLE/TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE
MARINE INVERSION TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS CLEARED ALL
BUT THE NORTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS BUT THIS DECK COULD LOWER TO IFR 11Z-16Z.
FROM FLORENCE TO KONP EXPECT MORE IFR LOW CIGS AND VIS TO DEVELOP
AFT 06Z...CAN ALREADY SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GAP INTO KSPB-KTTD AFTER 10Z OR SO
AND PROBABLY TO KSLE 13-19Z. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEEK FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INLAND TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 19-20Z.
. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER ARE 01-06Z WEDNESDAY.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED AND HAVE LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BUT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WESTERLY WINDS
BRIEFLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
ESPECIALLY
IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...3 TO 5FT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... BUT SEAS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 020350
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
850 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
LITTLE RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL FORM OVER PUGET SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DRY NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SUNNY WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY FOR SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER W WA THIS EVENING.
WITH NO PRECIP ON RADAR THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AK
PANHANDLE AT 03Z. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE
TROUGH SE ALONG THE B.C. COAST TONIGHT...THEN DOWN OVER W WA TUE
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT HAS NOT QUITE FORMED
YET BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN TO
TOFINO (CYAZ) AT 18Z/11 AM AND THEN JUST E OF PUGET SOUND AT 00Z/5
PM. THE FRONT WILL BE NARROW AND THE SYSTEM FAST MOVING SO THIS
SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN...STARTING ON THE N COAST JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AROUND 18Z. MODELS SHOW A CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER PUGET SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ALSO SHOW A SHOT OF RAIN OVER THE N HALF OF THE INTERIOR AND THE N
CASCADES TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH.

MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE 18Z NAM
SHOWED VERY LITTLE OVER THE LOWLANDS OUTSIDE OF 0.2 TO 0.3 IN THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE 00Z NAM DISCARDS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ONLY
HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE 18Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO
THE 18Z NAM. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 0.5 TO AN INCH OVER THE N HALF OF W
WA. ALL THE MODELS HIT THE N CASCADES WITH 0.5 TO AN INCH. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE REASONABLE WITH ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH
FROM PUGET SOUND NORTHWARD. QPF OVER THE CASCADES COULD PROBABLY BE
DOUBLED TO AT LEAST A HALF INCH...ASSUMING A DECENT HIT FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TUESDAY NIGHT.

COLD AIR ALOFT TRAILING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO A LITTLE ABOVE 6000 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES. BUT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY OVER BY THEN
SO AT BEST THERE MAY BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE N CASCADES.

PRECIP WILL BE OVER FOR THE LOWLANDS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASING SW ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENSURE THAT THE
LOWER AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAPID DRYING
ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HELP SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR SUNNY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM UP A LITTLE TO AROUND 70.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD E OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE OR EVEN
WEAKLY OFFSHORE...SO WITH A WARMING AIR MASS THURSDAY AND LITTLE OR
NO MORNING STRATUS TO GET IN THE WAY...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S N TO UPPER 70S SW INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY BUT
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OR CLOUD
COVER.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL A MARINE PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE DETAILS HOWEVER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN BY MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR TUE MORNING...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES TUE NIGHT. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL FLIP BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY 18Z TUE. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT - A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THROUGH THE STRAIT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES
OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 020350
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
850 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
LITTLE RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL FORM OVER PUGET SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DRY NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SUNNY WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY FOR SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER W WA THIS EVENING.
WITH NO PRECIP ON RADAR THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AK
PANHANDLE AT 03Z. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE
TROUGH SE ALONG THE B.C. COAST TONIGHT...THEN DOWN OVER W WA TUE
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT HAS NOT QUITE FORMED
YET BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN TO
TOFINO (CYAZ) AT 18Z/11 AM AND THEN JUST E OF PUGET SOUND AT 00Z/5
PM. THE FRONT WILL BE NARROW AND THE SYSTEM FAST MOVING SO THIS
SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN...STARTING ON THE N COAST JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AROUND 18Z. MODELS SHOW A CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER PUGET SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ALSO SHOW A SHOT OF RAIN OVER THE N HALF OF THE INTERIOR AND THE N
CASCADES TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH.

MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE 18Z NAM
SHOWED VERY LITTLE OVER THE LOWLANDS OUTSIDE OF 0.2 TO 0.3 IN THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE 00Z NAM DISCARDS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ONLY
HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE 18Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO
THE 18Z NAM. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 0.5 TO AN INCH OVER THE N HALF OF W
WA. ALL THE MODELS HIT THE N CASCADES WITH 0.5 TO AN INCH. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE REASONABLE WITH ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH
FROM PUGET SOUND NORTHWARD. QPF OVER THE CASCADES COULD PROBABLY BE
DOUBLED TO AT LEAST A HALF INCH...ASSUMING A DECENT HIT FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TUESDAY NIGHT.

COLD AIR ALOFT TRAILING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO A LITTLE ABOVE 6000 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES. BUT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY OVER BY THEN
SO AT BEST THERE MAY BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE N CASCADES.

PRECIP WILL BE OVER FOR THE LOWLANDS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASING SW ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENSURE THAT THE
LOWER AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAPID DRYING
ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HELP SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR SUNNY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM UP A LITTLE TO AROUND 70.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD E OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE OR EVEN
WEAKLY OFFSHORE...SO WITH A WARMING AIR MASS THURSDAY AND LITTLE OR
NO MORNING STRATUS TO GET IN THE WAY...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S N TO UPPER 70S SW INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY BUT
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OR CLOUD
COVER.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL A MARINE PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE DETAILS HOWEVER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN BY MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR TUE MORNING...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES TUE NIGHT. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL FLIP BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY 18Z TUE. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT - A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THROUGH THE STRAIT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES
OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 020350
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
850 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
LITTLE RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL FORM OVER PUGET SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DRY NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SUNNY WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY FOR SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER W WA THIS EVENING.
WITH NO PRECIP ON RADAR THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AK
PANHANDLE AT 03Z. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE
TROUGH SE ALONG THE B.C. COAST TONIGHT...THEN DOWN OVER W WA TUE
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT HAS NOT QUITE FORMED
YET BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN TO
TOFINO (CYAZ) AT 18Z/11 AM AND THEN JUST E OF PUGET SOUND AT 00Z/5
PM. THE FRONT WILL BE NARROW AND THE SYSTEM FAST MOVING SO THIS
SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN...STARTING ON THE N COAST JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AROUND 18Z. MODELS SHOW A CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER PUGET SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ALSO SHOW A SHOT OF RAIN OVER THE N HALF OF THE INTERIOR AND THE N
CASCADES TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH.

MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE 18Z NAM
SHOWED VERY LITTLE OVER THE LOWLANDS OUTSIDE OF 0.2 TO 0.3 IN THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE 00Z NAM DISCARDS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ONLY
HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE 18Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO
THE 18Z NAM. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 0.5 TO AN INCH OVER THE N HALF OF W
WA. ALL THE MODELS HIT THE N CASCADES WITH 0.5 TO AN INCH. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE REASONABLE WITH ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH
FROM PUGET SOUND NORTHWARD. QPF OVER THE CASCADES COULD PROBABLY BE
DOUBLED TO AT LEAST A HALF INCH...ASSUMING A DECENT HIT FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TUESDAY NIGHT.

COLD AIR ALOFT TRAILING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO A LITTLE ABOVE 6000 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES. BUT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY OVER BY THEN
SO AT BEST THERE MAY BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE N CASCADES.

PRECIP WILL BE OVER FOR THE LOWLANDS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASING SW ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENSURE THAT THE
LOWER AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAPID DRYING
ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HELP SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR SUNNY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM UP A LITTLE TO AROUND 70.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD E OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE OR EVEN
WEAKLY OFFSHORE...SO WITH A WARMING AIR MASS THURSDAY AND LITTLE OR
NO MORNING STRATUS TO GET IN THE WAY...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S N TO UPPER 70S SW INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY BUT
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OR CLOUD
COVER.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL A MARINE PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE DETAILS HOWEVER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN BY MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR TUE MORNING...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES TUE NIGHT. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL FLIP BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY 18Z TUE. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT - A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THROUGH THE STRAIT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES
OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 020350
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
850 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
LITTLE RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL FORM OVER PUGET SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DRY NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SUNNY WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY FOR SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER W WA THIS EVENING.
WITH NO PRECIP ON RADAR THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AK
PANHANDLE AT 03Z. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE
TROUGH SE ALONG THE B.C. COAST TONIGHT...THEN DOWN OVER W WA TUE
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT HAS NOT QUITE FORMED
YET BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN TO
TOFINO (CYAZ) AT 18Z/11 AM AND THEN JUST E OF PUGET SOUND AT 00Z/5
PM. THE FRONT WILL BE NARROW AND THE SYSTEM FAST MOVING SO THIS
SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN...STARTING ON THE N COAST JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AROUND 18Z. MODELS SHOW A CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER PUGET SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ALSO SHOW A SHOT OF RAIN OVER THE N HALF OF THE INTERIOR AND THE N
CASCADES TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH.

MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE 18Z NAM
SHOWED VERY LITTLE OVER THE LOWLANDS OUTSIDE OF 0.2 TO 0.3 IN THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE 00Z NAM DISCARDS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ONLY
HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE 18Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO
THE 18Z NAM. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 0.5 TO AN INCH OVER THE N HALF OF W
WA. ALL THE MODELS HIT THE N CASCADES WITH 0.5 TO AN INCH. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE REASONABLE WITH ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH
FROM PUGET SOUND NORTHWARD. QPF OVER THE CASCADES COULD PROBABLY BE
DOUBLED TO AT LEAST A HALF INCH...ASSUMING A DECENT HIT FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TUESDAY NIGHT.

COLD AIR ALOFT TRAILING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO A LITTLE ABOVE 6000 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES. BUT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY OVER BY THEN
SO AT BEST THERE MAY BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE N CASCADES.

PRECIP WILL BE OVER FOR THE LOWLANDS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASING SW ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENSURE THAT THE
LOWER AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAPID DRYING
ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HELP SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR SUNNY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM UP A LITTLE TO AROUND 70.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD E OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE OR EVEN
WEAKLY OFFSHORE...SO WITH A WARMING AIR MASS THURSDAY AND LITTLE OR
NO MORNING STRATUS TO GET IN THE WAY...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S N TO UPPER 70S SW INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY BUT
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OR CLOUD
COVER.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL A MARINE PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE DETAILS HOWEVER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN BY MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR TUE MORNING...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES TUE NIGHT. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL FLIP BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY 18Z TUE. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT - A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUE
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THROUGH THE STRAIT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE LATE TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES
OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THU AND FRI AS LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KOTX 012350
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by Saturday. Saturday night through
Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest. However
models continue to vary over the evolution, especially timing.
Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early next week.
A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and expands
toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include areas as
far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However there is too
much model disagreement to have high confidence. The incoming
trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by Monday.
/J.Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 00Z
Wednesday with flat cumulus dissipating this evening. For Tuesday
afternoon...a deep upper trough will be approaching with a chance
of showers in the Cascades and northern mountains in the
afternoon. The TAF sites will remain dry...but with gusty
west-southwest afternoon winds with the approaching system. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 012350
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by Saturday. Saturday night through
Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest. However
models continue to vary over the evolution, especially timing.
Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early next week.
A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and expands
toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include areas as
far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However there is too
much model disagreement to have high confidence. The incoming
trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by Monday.
/J.Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 00Z
Wednesday with flat cumulus dissipating this evening. For Tuesday
afternoon...a deep upper trough will be approaching with a chance
of showers in the Cascades and northern mountains in the
afternoon. The TAF sites will remain dry...but with gusty
west-southwest afternoon winds with the approaching system. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 012350
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by Saturday. Saturday night through
Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest. However
models continue to vary over the evolution, especially timing.
Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early next week.
A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and expands
toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include areas as
far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However there is too
much model disagreement to have high confidence. The incoming
trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by Monday.
/J.Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 00Z
Wednesday with flat cumulus dissipating this evening. For Tuesday
afternoon...a deep upper trough will be approaching with a chance
of showers in the Cascades and northern mountains in the
afternoon. The TAF sites will remain dry...but with gusty
west-southwest afternoon winds with the approaching system. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 012350
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by Saturday. Saturday night through
Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest. However
models continue to vary over the evolution, especially timing.
Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early next week.
A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and expands
toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include areas as
far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However there is too
much model disagreement to have high confidence. The incoming
trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by Monday.
/J.Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 00Z
Wednesday with flat cumulus dissipating this evening. For Tuesday
afternoon...a deep upper trough will be approaching with a chance
of showers in the Cascades and northern mountains in the
afternoon. The TAF sites will remain dry...but with gusty
west-southwest afternoon winds with the approaching system. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 012229
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO ALL AREAS WITH A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ELEVATIONS COULD
SEE A LITTLE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS DROP 7000-7500 FEET.

DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AND A WARMER WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON SATURDAY BUT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OR CLOUD COVER.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL A MARINE PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE DETAILS HOWEVER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SYSTEM APPROACHES WASHINGTON FROM THE
NORTH. THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE AND FALLS APART. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS...SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
INLAND AS OF 21Z/2PM.  CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HAVE
SCATTERED OUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE STRAIT...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST WHERE A BKN BUT VFR DECK IS HANGING ON. THE
NORTH COAST HAS SEEN CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS WITH THE
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED ON SHORE THERE. EXPECT CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
TO IMPROVE OR REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING. THE COAST AND STRAIT AS WELL
AS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME SCATTERING
COMPLETELY OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FILL AND LOWER
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR BY
DAYBREAK...WHILE THE COAST WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

KSEA...SW WIND 4-7 KT WILL BECOME N AFTER 00Z/5 PM...THEN NE AND
LIGHT AFTER 8Z/1AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN FILL AND LOWER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO MVFR LEVELS.
INCREASING SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SOLID ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
STRAIT TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A MORE VIGOROUS
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT
OF WINDS TO AREA WATERS. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED BY NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS REMAIN FORECAST TO BE STRONG TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND MUCH OF THE STRAIT WILL LIKELY BE HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE CRITERIA. HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENTS EASE ON WEDNESDAY
THEN RETURN TO A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 012229
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO ALL AREAS WITH A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ELEVATIONS COULD
SEE A LITTLE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS DROP 7000-7500 FEET.

DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AND A WARMER WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON SATURDAY BUT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OR CLOUD COVER.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL A MARINE PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE DETAILS HOWEVER. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SYSTEM APPROACHES WASHINGTON FROM THE
NORTH. THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE AND FALLS APART. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS...SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
INLAND AS OF 21Z/2PM.  CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR HAVE
SCATTERED OUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE STRAIT...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...AND
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST WHERE A BKN BUT VFR DECK IS HANGING ON. THE
NORTH COAST HAS SEEN CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS WITH THE
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED ON SHORE THERE. EXPECT CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
TO IMPROVE OR REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING. THE COAST AND STRAIT AS WELL
AS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME SCATTERING
COMPLETELY OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FILL AND LOWER
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR BY
DAYBREAK...WHILE THE COAST WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

KSEA...SW WIND 4-7 KT WILL BECOME N AFTER 00Z/5 PM...THEN NE AND
LIGHT AFTER 8Z/1AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN FILL AND LOWER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO MVFR LEVELS.
INCREASING SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SOLID ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
STRAIT TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A MORE VIGOROUS
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT
OF WINDS TO AREA WATERS. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED BY NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS REMAIN FORECAST TO BE STRONG TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND MUCH OF THE STRAIT WILL LIKELY BE HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE CRITERIA. HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENTS EASE ON WEDNESDAY
THEN RETURN TO A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KOTX 012145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by the Saturday. Saturday night
through Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest.
However models continue to vary over the evolution, especially
timing. Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early
next week. A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and
expands toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include
areas as far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However
there is too much model disagreement to have high confidence. The
incoming trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by
Monday. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 18Z
Tuesday with mainly light winds. Cumulus will be found over the
mountains through 03z, then high clouds will be on the increase by
Tuesday morning. /rfox.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 012145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by the Saturday. Saturday night
through Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest.
However models continue to vary over the evolution, especially
timing. Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early
next week. A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and
expands toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include
areas as far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However
there is too much model disagreement to have high confidence. The
incoming trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by
Monday. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 18Z
Tuesday with mainly light winds. Cumulus will be found over the
mountains through 03z, then high clouds will be on the increase by
Tuesday morning. /rfox.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 012145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by the Saturday. Saturday night
through Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest.
However models continue to vary over the evolution, especially
timing. Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early
next week. A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and
expands toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include
areas as far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However
there is too much model disagreement to have high confidence. The
incoming trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by
Monday. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 18Z
Tuesday with mainly light winds. Cumulus will be found over the
mountains through 03z, then high clouds will be on the increase by
Tuesday morning. /rfox.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 012145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will
bring a return of gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday,
along with good threat of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and
drying trend is expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: Northwest flow will prevail across the Inland
Northwest for the next 24 hours, but a strong 100 kt jet in the
flow will push a fast moving cold front through the region late
Tuesday. For tonight, expect light winds, mild temperatures and
the cumulus to dissipate to mostly clear skies. For Tuesday, winds
will start off light as clouds increase from the west. The cold
front will sweep through the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. This
will tighten pressure gradients and northwest winds will becoming
breezy. There is a chance of showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and in the far northern mountains into the evening hours. Increased
instability will be found along the front and could see a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the northern mountains as well.
/rfox.

Tues Nt through Wed Nt: The entire time frame will be focused on
a deep upper trough that will quickly move SE out of BC and into
Ern Wa and N Id while it fills/weaken/shears before moving into
Wrn Montana Wed. The core wx issues associated with the passage of
this trough and front will be gusty west winds, thunder/pcpn
amnts, and temperatures. Very gusty winds, especially near the
Cascades, will increase late Tues as cold advection and cross-
Cascade pressure gradients strengthen. The biggest challenge for
Wed will be deciding the areal coverage of showers and/or thunder
across NE Wa and the Id Panhandle. This will, of course, influence
temperatures with the increased cloud cover. As this wave fills,
it also develops a trowal structure Wed on the NE periphery of the
upper low that could significantly influence the amnt of pcpn that
Nrn Wa and N Id receives. As a result of this trowal feature,
banded pcpn could certainly be a problem across Ern Wa and N Id
Wed before the low moves east out of the area. Due to the
convective character of the wave, the deep cyclonic convergence
and trowal banding, significant pcpn amnts are possible. Storm
total rainfall amnts are fcst to be roughly three to six tenths
for the N Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa by Wed Nt. Cool high temps Wed
in the 60s where the heaviest rains fall looks increasing likely
as well. bz

Thursday to Monday: Mostly dry, warm conditions expected before
the next rain threat arrives early next week. A trough of low
pressure exits to the east and a ridge builds in through Saturday.
With regional PWATs dropping below 0.50 inches and broad-scale
subsidence, this will support dry and mostly clear conditions.
Mean 850mb temperatures warm 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the
week, supporting a warming trend that pushes highs from the mid-
70s Thursday to the lower 80s by the Saturday. Saturday night
through Monday the next trough pushes in from the west-northwest.
However models continue to vary over the evolution, especially
timing. Look for some increase in cloud cover going into early
next week. A chance of showers returns to the Cascades Sunday and
expands toward northeast WA and north ID Monday. This may include
areas as far south Douglas county to Kootenai county. However
there is too much model disagreement to have high confidence. The
incoming trough is forecast to bring cooler temperatures by
Monday. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 18Z
Tuesday with mainly light winds. Cumulus will be found over the
mountains through 03z, then high clouds will be on the increase by
Tuesday morning. /rfox.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  75  50  68  46  75 /   0  10  50  30  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  76  50  67  42  75 /   0  10  60  40  20   0
Pullman        48  77  45  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Lewiston       58  84  53  74  49  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       47  78  48  70  38  78 /   0  10  50  30  20  10
Sandpoint      46  74  45  64  39  73 /   0  10  70  70  40  10
Kellogg        47  71  47  65  39  71 /   0  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     57  82  51  76  47  80 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  80  54  75  52  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           54  80  52  73  43  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 012126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.  AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAKENING FRONT JUST OFF
THE WA/OR COAST THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING A PERSISTENT AREA OF CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH COASTAL AREA...MAINLY FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON. WEBCAM IMAGERY AT ASTORIA THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SHOWED
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME. ELSEWHERE...
LOTS OF SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO A SPLENDID LABOR DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW LATER TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THUS...EXPECT
MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY MORNING.  A WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART
OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT AND COULD GET ALITTLE RAIN TUES EVE/NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BRUSH EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR SOME FOR
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS
AND INLAND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KKLS OR SO. THE LOWEST CIGS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER INLAND THERE MAY BE
A FEW CIGS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT LESS CHANCE IN THE VALLEYS. THE
SURFACE PATTERN SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL TEND TO STAY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE PACIFIC...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INLAND TO KPDX AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS OR PERHAPS HIGH IFR AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON THE COAST...APPROACHING KPDX BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...
WHICH IS 5 PM TUESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME VFR CIGS
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5000 OR 6000
FT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH BRIEFLY
TURNED THE WINDS IN OUR NORTHERN WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...BUT
THEN WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST...WHICH
MAY GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS TO OUR CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS MAINLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL
BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY AND
ONSHORE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME
MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE
20 KT AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH
BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 PM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.  AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY BRINING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAKENING FRONT JUST OFF
THE WA/OR COAST THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING A PERSISTENT AREA OF CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH COASTAL AREA...MAINLY FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON. WEBCAM IMAGERY AT ASTORIA THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SHOWED
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME. ELSEWHERE...
LOTS OF SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO A SPLENDID LABOR DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW LATER TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THUS...EXPECT
MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY MORNING.  A WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST/COAST RANGE AND PART
OF THE INLAND AREA. BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHWEST WA...BUT THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AND NORTH CASCADES WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT AND COULD GET ALITTLE RAIN TUES EVE/NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK.  NOT ONLY IS
MOISTURE LIMITED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE
RIDGE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  LATE THIS WEEKEND THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ALL ARE SUGGESTING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND BECAUSE OF HOW FAR
OUT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS THEY CAPTURE
THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BRUSH EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR SOME FOR
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS
AND INLAND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KKLS OR SO. THE LOWEST CIGS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER INLAND THERE MAY BE
A FEW CIGS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT LESS CHANCE IN THE VALLEYS. THE
SURFACE PATTERN SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL TEND TO STAY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE PACIFIC...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INLAND TO KPDX AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS OR PERHAPS HIGH IFR AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON THE COAST...APPROACHING KPDX BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...
WHICH IS 5 PM TUESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME VFR CIGS
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5000 OR 6000
FT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY. SOME VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH BRIEFLY
TURNED THE WINDS IN OUR NORTHERN WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...BUT
THEN WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST...WHICH
MAY GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS TO OUR CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS MAINLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL
BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY AND
ONSHORE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME
MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MAY GIVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE
20 KT AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH
BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILDS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

SEAS MAY GET CLOSE TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLIES WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLIES DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD BUILDING THERMAL TROUGH. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mild temperatures, light winds and lots of sun today to
round out the holiday weekend. The arrival of a cold front
Tuesday afternoon and evening will bring a return of breezy winds
and cooler temperatures for Wednesday, along with some threat of
showers and thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is expected
Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to tweak temperatures slightly. Expect a
gradaully warming in all areas today. Despite chilly readings
early this morning, daytime highs will be running 2 to 6 degrees
warmer, especially in north Idaho. Visible satellite shows the fog
has quickly dissipated over the northern valleys and the cumulus
field has bloomed. Today will be much more stable than the last
two days, with little chance of precipitation./rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 18Z
Tuesday with mainly light winds. Cumulus will be found over the
mountains through 03z, then high clouds will be on the increase by
Tuesday morning. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  53  75  50  68  46 /   0   0  10  50  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  72  51  75  49  67  42 /  10   0  10  60  40  20
Pullman        74  48  77  46  68  41 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       79  56  84  55  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Colville       75  48  78  44  70  39 /  10   0  20  60  30  10
Sandpoint      70  48  74  47  64  40 /  10   0  10  70  70  20
Kellogg        68  47  72  46  65  39 /  10   0  10  50  60  20
Moses Lake     81  53  80  51  76  47 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      79  58  78  54  75  52 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           79  55  77  51  76  44 /   0   0  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mild temperatures, light winds and lots of sun today to
round out the holiday weekend. The arrival of a cold front
Tuesday afternoon and evening will bring a return of breezy winds
and cooler temperatures for Wednesday, along with some threat of
showers and thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is expected
Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to tweak temperatures slightly. Expect a
gradaully warming in all areas today. Despite chilly readings
early this morning, daytime highs will be running 2 to 6 degrees
warmer, especially in north Idaho. Visible satellite shows the fog
has quickly dissipated over the northern valleys and the cumulus
field has bloomed. Today will be much more stable than the last
two days, with little chance of precipitation./rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 18Z
Tuesday with mainly light winds. Cumulus will be found over the
mountains through 03z, then high clouds will be on the increase by
Tuesday morning. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  53  75  50  68  46 /   0   0  10  50  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  72  51  75  49  67  42 /  10   0  10  60  40  20
Pullman        74  48  77  46  68  41 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       79  56  84  55  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Colville       75  48  78  44  70  39 /  10   0  20  60  30  10
Sandpoint      70  48  74  47  64  40 /  10   0  10  70  70  20
Kellogg        68  47  72  46  65  39 /  10   0  10  50  60  20
Moses Lake     81  53  80  51  76  47 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      79  58  78  54  75  52 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           79  55  77  51  76  44 /   0   0  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mild temperatures, light winds and lots of sun today to
round out the holiday weekend. The arrival of a cold front
Tuesday afternoon and evening will bring a return of breezy winds
and cooler temperatures for Wednesday, along with some threat of
showers and thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is expected
Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to tweak temperatures slightly. Expect a
gradaully warming in all areas today. Despite chilly readings
early this morning, daytime highs will be running 2 to 6 degrees
warmer, especially in north Idaho. Visible satellite shows the fog
has quickly dissipated over the northern valleys and the cumulus
field has bloomed. Today will be much more stable than the last
two days, with little chance of precipitation./rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 18Z
Tuesday with mainly light winds. Cumulus will be found over the
mountains through 03z, then high clouds will be on the increase by
Tuesday morning. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  53  75  50  68  46 /   0   0  10  50  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  72  51  75  49  67  42 /  10   0  10  60  40  20
Pullman        74  48  77  46  68  41 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       79  56  84  55  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Colville       75  48  78  44  70  39 /  10   0  20  60  30  10
Sandpoint      70  48  74  47  64  40 /  10   0  10  70  70  20
Kellogg        68  47  72  46  65  39 /  10   0  10  50  60  20
Moses Lake     81  53  80  51  76  47 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      79  58  78  54  75  52 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           79  55  77  51  76  44 /   0   0  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mild temperatures, light winds and lots of sun today to
round out the holiday weekend. The arrival of a cold front
Tuesday afternoon and evening will bring a return of breezy winds
and cooler temperatures for Wednesday, along with some threat of
showers and thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is expected
Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to tweak temperatures slightly. Expect a
gradaully warming in all areas today. Despite chilly readings
early this morning, daytime highs will be running 2 to 6 degrees
warmer, especially in north Idaho. Visible satellite shows the fog
has quickly dissipated over the northern valleys and the cumulus
field has bloomed. Today will be much more stable than the last
two days, with little chance of precipitation./rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect VFR conditions across the region through 18Z
Tuesday with mainly light winds. Cumulus will be found over the
mountains through 03z, then high clouds will be on the increase by
Tuesday morning. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  53  75  50  68  46 /   0   0  10  50  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  72  51  75  49  67  42 /  10   0  10  60  40  20
Pullman        74  48  77  46  68  41 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       79  56  84  55  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Colville       75  48  78  44  70  39 /  10   0  20  60  30  10
Sandpoint      70  48  74  47  64  40 /  10   0  10  70  70  20
Kellogg        68  47  72  46  65  39 /  10   0  10  50  60  20
Moses Lake     81  53  80  51  76  47 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      79  58  78  54  75  52 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           79  55  77  51  76  44 /   0   0  20  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 011623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 AM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. CLOUDY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND.  A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH
TODAY AND MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH COASTAL AREA
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN AND EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUDY NORTH OF SALEM. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
DEVELOPING A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TW/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR DRY...SUNNY...AND SEASONALLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BRUSH EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR SOME FOR
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST AND INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS INLAND WERE ALREADY
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CASCADES. THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT THOSE TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS INLAND POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF KSLE. THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR KONP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS FOR AWHILE...BUT MAY ALSO SEE SOME CIGS LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE
PACIFIC...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INLAND TO KPDX AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH BY TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME CIGS FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5000 OR 6000 FT. THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL TOWARDS
12Z TUESDAY. PT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR N WAS BRIEFLY
TURNING THE WINDS IN OUR N WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...BUT THEN
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOR NLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST...WHICH MAY GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS TO OUR CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MAINLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL BAND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY AND ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN N CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SOUTHERN WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THU AND FRI AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS N ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...WITH A FEW
GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE VALUES.

SEAS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRI...PEAKING NEAR 8 OR EVEN
9 FT THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 011623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 AM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. CLOUDY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND.  A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH
TODAY AND MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH COASTAL AREA
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN AND EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUDY NORTH OF SALEM. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
DEVELOPING A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TW/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR DRY...SUNNY...AND SEASONALLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BRUSH EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR SOME FOR
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST AND INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS INLAND WERE ALREADY
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CASCADES. THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT THOSE TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS INLAND POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF KSLE. THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR KONP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS FOR AWHILE...BUT MAY ALSO SEE SOME CIGS LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE
PACIFIC...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INLAND TO KPDX AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH BY TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME CIGS FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5000 OR 6000 FT. THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL TOWARDS
12Z TUESDAY. PT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR N WAS BRIEFLY
TURNING THE WINDS IN OUR N WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...BUT THEN
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOR NLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST...WHICH MAY GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS TO OUR CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MAINLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL BAND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY AND ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN N CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SOUTHERN WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THU AND FRI AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS N ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...WITH A FEW
GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE VALUES.

SEAS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRI...PEAKING NEAR 8 OR EVEN
9 FT THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 011623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 AM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. CLOUDY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND.  A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH
TODAY AND MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH COASTAL AREA
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN AND EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUDY NORTH OF SALEM. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
DEVELOPING A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TW/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR DRY...SUNNY...AND SEASONALLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BRUSH EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR SOME FOR
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST AND INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS INLAND WERE ALREADY
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CASCADES. THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT THOSE TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS INLAND POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF KSLE. THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR KONP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS FOR AWHILE...BUT MAY ALSO SEE SOME CIGS LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE
PACIFIC...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INLAND TO KPDX AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH BY TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME CIGS FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5000 OR 6000 FT. THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL TOWARDS
12Z TUESDAY. PT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR N WAS BRIEFLY
TURNING THE WINDS IN OUR N WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...BUT THEN
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOR NLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST...WHICH MAY GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS TO OUR CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MAINLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL BAND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY AND ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN N CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SOUTHERN WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THU AND FRI AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS N ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...WITH A FEW
GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE VALUES.

SEAS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRI...PEAKING NEAR 8 OR EVEN
9 FT THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 011623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 AM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. CLOUDY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND.  A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH
TODAY AND MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH COASTAL AREA
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN AND EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUDY NORTH OF SALEM. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
DEVELOPING A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TW/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR DRY...SUNNY...AND SEASONALLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BRUSH EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR SOME FOR
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST AND INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS INLAND WERE ALREADY
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CASCADES. THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT THOSE TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS INLAND POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF KSLE. THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR KONP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS FOR AWHILE...BUT MAY ALSO SEE SOME CIGS LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE
PACIFIC...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INLAND TO KPDX AND POSSIBLY A BIT SOUTH BY TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME CIGS FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND 5000 OR 6000 FT. THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL TOWARDS
12Z TUESDAY. PT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR N WAS BRIEFLY
TURNING THE WINDS IN OUR N WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...BUT THEN
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOR NLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST...WHICH MAY GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLD GUSTS TO OUR CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MAINLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL BAND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS MIDDAY TUESDAY AND ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING IN N CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SOUTHERN WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL THE WATERS THU AND FRI AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS N ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...WITH A FEW
GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE VALUES.

SEAS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRI...PEAKING NEAR 8 OR EVEN
9 FT THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 011610
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
TODAY FOR A DRY DAY. A FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY FOR A
GENERALLY DRY DAY. A WEAK DECAYING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES
TO THE COAST BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY A
LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BUT THE TREND TOWARDS
A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THE INTERIOR STILL LOOKS GOOD.

A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING
A LITTLE RAIN TO ALL AREAS WITH A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND
6500 FEET...THE FIRST SIGN THAT FALL IS NOT FAR AWAY.

DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BREAK DOWN AROUND
SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW...INCREASED CLOUDINESS...AND
HIGHS COOLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
WASHINGTON FROM THE NORTH. THE MOIST AND STABLE AIR MASS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF SEATTLE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND HAVE FILLED IN AND LOWERED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO TO MVFR LEVELS WITH A FEW SPOTS A BIT LOWER. EXPECT
GENERAL CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS
AROUND 18Z. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES
FROM COMPLETELY SCATTERING OUT...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

KSEA...S WIND TO 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z/12 PM THEN SWITCHING TO THE N
AFTER 00Z/5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MVFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR THEN VFR BY 18Z/11 AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A BKN-OVC 4-5K FT DECK...THEN FILL
AND LOWER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO MVFR LEVELS. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LIGHT SLY WIND OVER THE INLAND WATERS.
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENTS
EASE ON WEDNESDAY THEN RETURN TO A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 011610
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
TODAY FOR A DRY DAY. A FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY FOR A
GENERALLY DRY DAY. A WEAK DECAYING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES
TO THE COAST BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY A
LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BUT THE TREND TOWARDS
A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THE INTERIOR STILL LOOKS GOOD.

A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING
A LITTLE RAIN TO ALL AREAS WITH A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND
6500 FEET...THE FIRST SIGN THAT FALL IS NOT FAR AWAY.

DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
THERE WILL EVEN BE A BIT OF A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BREAK DOWN AROUND
SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW...INCREASED CLOUDINESS...AND
HIGHS COOLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
WASHINGTON FROM THE NORTH. THE MOIST AND STABLE AIR MASS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF SEATTLE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND HAVE FILLED IN AND LOWERED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO TO MVFR LEVELS WITH A FEW SPOTS A BIT LOWER. EXPECT
GENERAL CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS
AROUND 18Z. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES
FROM COMPLETELY SCATTERING OUT...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

KSEA...S WIND TO 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z/12 PM THEN SWITCHING TO THE N
AFTER 00Z/5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MVFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR THEN VFR BY 18Z/11 AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A BKN-OVC 4-5K FT DECK...THEN FILL
AND LOWER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO MVFR LEVELS. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LIGHT SLY WIND OVER THE INLAND WATERS.
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENTS
EASE ON WEDNESDAY THEN RETURN TO A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
    .GALE WATCH CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KOTX 011132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be the mildest and least breezy day of the holiday
weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the 70s under
mostly sunny skies. The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon
and evening will bring a return of breezy to windy conditions and
below average temperatures for Wednesday, along with some threat
of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is
expected Thursday into next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Fairly benign weather pattern as we transition
over onto the stable side of the upper level jet. A little bit of
fog is expected in the morning for the valleys in the Northeast
Mtns and in the Northern Panhandle. High temperatures will be a
few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, but will still be
slightly below normal for the beginning of September.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A dynamic weather system will push into
the region out of BC. This system will drop down on the tail end
of the polar jet streak which will shift northeast across the
region today. Strong upper level dynamics will produce a
deepening surface low that will traverse the eastern edge of the
Great Divide. The cold front associated with this system will push
across the region during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Good cold air advection should allow stronger winds aloft to mix
down to the surface as the front pushes through even as we head
into the evening, which is typically when winds would start to
weaken. Winds up at 850 mbs will be up around 25-30 kts. This
will translate into sustained wind speeds of roughly 18-22 mph
with gusts up around 30-35 mph. Due to the southwesterly track to
this system, winds are expected to be quite windy down the
Okanogan Valley as well as through the Cascade gaps. Then these
winds will filter out over the basin through the evening with
frontal passage. The 06Z NAM has also come in a bit more unstable
and is more supportive of thunderstorms. Best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be across the northern mtns, but chances
will extend as far south as the upper portions of the basin and
the northern portions of the Palouse. The track of storms will
generally be east to southeast with the northern mtns of WA seeing
convection first Tuesday afternoon and then transitioning into the
Panhandle into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms will provide the
potential for even stronger outflow winds that could enhance the
synoptic scale wind speeds mentioned previously with gusts closer
to 40-50 mph possible near convection. /SVH

Wednesday: The potential for showers and thunderstorms will be the
primary weather concern for Wednesday as a positively tilted 500mb
trough lingers over north Idaho. It appears that the trough will
be undergoing a split on Wednesday with the most substantial
synoptic scale forcing shearing into southern Alberta and
Saskatchewan. The 0z ECMWF and 6z NAM dig the 500mb cold pool
into north Idaho and eastern Washington a bit more aggressively
than the GFS. The Weather Prediction Center favors the deeper
solution over north Idaho, so a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms has been retained for places like Sandpoint,
Kellogg, Priest lake and Northport. Elsewhere, limited deep layer
instability and marginal mid-level lapse rates suggest low chances
for convection. Wednesday should be the coolest day region-wide
under the upper level cold pool with afternoon highs in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

Thursday and Friday: A split flow pattern is expected to develop
over the Pacific Northwest Thursday and Friday. A weak upper low
will likely develop near northern California as the southern
polar branch sags southward. The northern branch will be much more
vigorous and cut through the northern/central Canadian Prairies.
Washington and Idaho will be squarely between the two branches of
the jet, and left mainly dry. Look for a gradual warming trend
over the second half of the week into the weekend. /GKoch

Saturday through Monday night: A warming and drying trend will
continue into the weekend over the Inland Northwest, with above
normal temperatures expected. However, yet another trough will
bring cooler temperatures and increased chances for precipitation
early next week.

Weak ridging will nose its way over the region Saturday and
remain there on Sunday before another trough traverses the area
Sunday night into early next week. The ridging will suppress any
chances at precipitation, while also allowing temperatures to rise
into the upper 70s (east) to mid/upper 80s west.

Sunday night or Monday, a trough will beat down the ridge, and
move over the region, cooling temperatures back to seasonal
normals and increasing precipitation chances. Right now, the
precipitation chances look to be confined to the higher terrain of
the Cascades and the mountains of northeast Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid level clouds will thin out through this morning.
This will allow for some fog to form in the mountain valleys of
northeast WA and in the northern Panhandle. Otherwise, VFR
conditions across the region through 12Z Tuesday with light winds
between 10-20 mph. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  53  75  50  68  46 /   0   0  10  50  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  72  51  75  49  67  42 /  10   0  10  60  30  20
Pullman        74  48  77  46  68  41 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       79  56  84  55  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Colville       75  48  78  44  70  39 /  10   0  20  60  30  10
Sandpoint      70  48  74  47  64  40 /  10   0  10  70  50  20
Kellogg        68  47  72  46  65  39 /  10   0  10  50  30  20
Moses Lake     81  53  80  51  76  47 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      79  58  78  54  75  52 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           78  55  77  51  76  44 /   0   0  20  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be the mildest and least breezy day of the holiday
weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the 70s under
mostly sunny skies. The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon
and evening will bring a return of breezy to windy conditions and
below average temperatures for Wednesday, along with some threat
of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is
expected Thursday into next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Fairly benign weather pattern as we transition
over onto the stable side of the upper level jet. A little bit of
fog is expected in the morning for the valleys in the Northeast
Mtns and in the Northern Panhandle. High temperatures will be a
few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, but will still be
slightly below normal for the beginning of September.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A dynamic weather system will push into
the region out of BC. This system will drop down on the tail end
of the polar jet streak which will shift northeast across the
region today. Strong upper level dynamics will produce a
deepening surface low that will traverse the eastern edge of the
Great Divide. The cold front associated with this system will push
across the region during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Good cold air advection should allow stronger winds aloft to mix
down to the surface as the front pushes through even as we head
into the evening, which is typically when winds would start to
weaken. Winds up at 850 mbs will be up around 25-30 kts. This
will translate into sustained wind speeds of roughly 18-22 mph
with gusts up around 30-35 mph. Due to the southwesterly track to
this system, winds are expected to be quite windy down the
Okanogan Valley as well as through the Cascade gaps. Then these
winds will filter out over the basin through the evening with
frontal passage. The 06Z NAM has also come in a bit more unstable
and is more supportive of thunderstorms. Best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be across the northern mtns, but chances
will extend as far south as the upper portions of the basin and
the northern portions of the Palouse. The track of storms will
generally be east to southeast with the northern mtns of WA seeing
convection first Tuesday afternoon and then transitioning into the
Panhandle into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms will provide the
potential for even stronger outflow winds that could enhance the
synoptic scale wind speeds mentioned previously with gusts closer
to 40-50 mph possible near convection. /SVH

Wednesday: The potential for showers and thunderstorms will be the
primary weather concern for Wednesday as a positively tilted 500mb
trough lingers over north Idaho. It appears that the trough will
be undergoing a split on Wednesday with the most substantial
synoptic scale forcing shearing into southern Alberta and
Saskatchewan. The 0z ECMWF and 6z NAM dig the 500mb cold pool
into north Idaho and eastern Washington a bit more aggressively
than the GFS. The Weather Prediction Center favors the deeper
solution over north Idaho, so a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms has been retained for places like Sandpoint,
Kellogg, Priest lake and Northport. Elsewhere, limited deep layer
instability and marginal mid-level lapse rates suggest low chances
for convection. Wednesday should be the coolest day region-wide
under the upper level cold pool with afternoon highs in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

Thursday and Friday: A split flow pattern is expected to develop
over the Pacific Northwest Thursday and Friday. A weak upper low
will likely develop near northern California as the southern
polar branch sags southward. The northern branch will be much more
vigorous and cut through the northern/central Canadian Prairies.
Washington and Idaho will be squarely between the two branches of
the jet, and left mainly dry. Look for a gradual warming trend
over the second half of the week into the weekend. /GKoch

Saturday through Monday night: A warming and drying trend will
continue into the weekend over the Inland Northwest, with above
normal temperatures expected. However, yet another trough will
bring cooler temperatures and increased chances for precipitation
early next week.

Weak ridging will nose its way over the region Saturday and
remain there on Sunday before another trough traverses the area
Sunday night into early next week. The ridging will suppress any
chances at precipitation, while also allowing temperatures to rise
into the upper 70s (east) to mid/upper 80s west.

Sunday night or Monday, a trough will beat down the ridge, and
move over the region, cooling temperatures back to seasonal
normals and increasing precipitation chances. Right now, the
precipitation chances look to be confined to the higher terrain of
the Cascades and the mountains of northeast Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid level clouds will thin out through this morning.
This will allow for some fog to form in the mountain valleys of
northeast WA and in the northern Panhandle. Otherwise, VFR
conditions across the region through 12Z Tuesday with light winds
between 10-20 mph. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  53  75  50  68  46 /   0   0  10  50  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  72  51  75  49  67  42 /  10   0  10  60  30  20
Pullman        74  48  77  46  68  41 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       79  56  84  55  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Colville       75  48  78  44  70  39 /  10   0  20  60  30  10
Sandpoint      70  48  74  47  64  40 /  10   0  10  70  50  20
Kellogg        68  47  72  46  65  39 /  10   0  10  50  30  20
Moses Lake     81  53  80  51  76  47 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      79  58  78  54  75  52 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           78  55  77  51  76  44 /   0   0  20  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 011017
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA TODAY...KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES INLAND AND TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO SW WASHINGTON TUESDAY EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR NW OREGON
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIVER OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON. WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST IS KEEPING THE MARINE CLOUDS JUST
OFFSHORE.

A WEAKENING FRONT IS APPROACHING SW WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NW OREGON
AND SHOULD BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF TILLAMOOK
AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MEASURABLE RAIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN AND EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUDY NORTH OF SALEM. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND INLAND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
FORMING A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEARER SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR DRY...SUNNY...AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A MODESTLY DRY LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS THE PORTLAND
METRO TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS AT KONP WILL PROBABLY
GIVE WAY TO LIFR/IFR FOG THIS MORNING. AFTER TRANSITIONING TO VFR
LATE THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON...HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS EVENING AT KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WINDS WILL PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEEP DUE 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 011017
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT MON SEP  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA TODAY...KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST AND AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES INLAND AND TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO SW WASHINGTON TUESDAY EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR NW OREGON
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIVER OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON. WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST IS KEEPING THE MARINE CLOUDS JUST
OFFSHORE.

A WEAKENING FRONT IS APPROACHING SW WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NW OREGON
AND SHOULD BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF TILLAMOOK
AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MEASURABLE RAIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND TODAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN AND EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUDY NORTH OF SALEM. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND INLAND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DEEP MARINE PUSH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
FORMING A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW...CLEARER SKIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE WINDS FOR DRY...SUNNY...AND
SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A MODESTLY DRY LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS THE PORTLAND
METRO TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS AT KONP WILL PROBABLY
GIVE WAY TO LIFR/IFR FOG THIS MORNING. AFTER TRANSITIONING TO VFR
LATE THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON...HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS EVENING AT KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WINDS WILL PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEEP DUE 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 011011
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
311 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY.
A STRONG AND FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF AK WILL
IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUE. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WITHIN THE PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/. THE PSCZ SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PSCZ. WINDS WILL ALSO KICK UP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE A FEELING THAT THE MODELS MIGHT BE UNDER-
PREDICTING WIND SPEEDS IN SOME PLACES.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 6500 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CASCADES LATE TUE NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT LITTLE
/IF ANY/ SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE
UNDERGOING STRONG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE AT THAT TIME.

STRONG...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON
WED. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
UNDER A CLOUDLESS SKY. MOST PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE MINIMUMS IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST EXCEPT TO BLEND
WITH ADJACENT FORECAST OFFICES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES WA. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY MOIST AND STABLE...EXCEPT
BECOMING WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF SEATTLE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SHOWERS
TUESDAY. AN MVFR CEILING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN WA THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER BY 18Z.

KSEA...S WIND TO 5 KT...BECOMING SLY 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z THEN SWITCHING
TO THE N AFTER 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
AND SCATTER BY 18-19Z. A BKN-OVC 4-5K FT DECK WILL FILL IN THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING
SHOWERS TUESDAY. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY
MIDDAY. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LIGHT SLY WIND OVER THE INLAND WATERS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A BOUT OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN EASING ON WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A
MORE SUMMERY WIND REGIME WITH A TYPICAL NW BREEZE EACH DAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 011011
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
311 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY.
A STRONG AND FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF AK WILL
IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUE. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WITHIN THE PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/. THE PSCZ SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PSCZ. WINDS WILL ALSO KICK UP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE A FEELING THAT THE MODELS MIGHT BE UNDER-
PREDICTING WIND SPEEDS IN SOME PLACES.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 6500 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CASCADES LATE TUE NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT LITTLE
/IF ANY/ SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE
UNDERGOING STRONG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE AT THAT TIME.

STRONG...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON
WED. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
UNDER A CLOUDLESS SKY. MOST PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE MINIMUMS IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST EXCEPT TO BLEND
WITH ADJACENT FORECAST OFFICES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES WA. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY MOIST AND STABLE...EXCEPT
BECOMING WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF SEATTLE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SHOWERS
TUESDAY. AN MVFR CEILING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN WA THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER BY 18Z.

KSEA...S WIND TO 5 KT...BECOMING SLY 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z THEN SWITCHING
TO THE N AFTER 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
AND SCATTER BY 18-19Z. A BKN-OVC 4-5K FT DECK WILL FILL IN THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING
SHOWERS TUESDAY. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY
MIDDAY. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LIGHT SLY WIND OVER THE INLAND WATERS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A BOUT OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN EASING ON WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A
MORE SUMMERY WIND REGIME WITH A TYPICAL NW BREEZE EACH DAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 010954
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be the mildest and least breezy day of the holiday
weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the 70s under
mostly sunny skies. The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon
and evening will bring a return of breezy to windy conditions and
below average temperatures for Wednesday, along with some threat
of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is
expected Thursday into next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Fairly benign weather pattern as we transition
over onto the stable side of the upper level jet. A little bit of
fog is expected in the morning for the valleys in the Northeast
Mtns and in the Northern Panhandle. High temperatures will be a
few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, but will still be
slightly below normal for the beginning of September.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A dynamic weather system will push into
the region out of BC. This system will drop down on the tail end
of the polar jet streak which will shift northeast across the
region today. Strong upper level dynamics will produce a
deepening surface low that will traverse the eastern edge of the
Great Divide. The cold front associated with this system will push
across the region during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Good cold air advection should allow stronger winds aloft to mix
down to the surface as the front pushes through even as we head
into the evening, which is typically when winds would start to
weaken. Winds up at 850 mbs will be up around 25-30 kts. This
will translate into sustained wind speeds of roughly 18-22 mph
with gusts up around 30-35 mph. Due to the southwesterly track to
this system, winds are expected to be quite windy down the
Okanogan Valley as well as through the Cascade gaps. Then these
winds will filter out over the basin through the evening with
frontal passage. The 06Z NAM has also come in a bit more unstable
and is more supportive of thunderstorms. Best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be across the northern mtns, but chances
will extend as far south as the upper portions of the basin and
the northern portions of the Palouse. The track of storms will
generally be east to southeast with the northern mtns of WA seeing
convection first Tuesday afternoon and then transitioning into the
Panhandle into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms will provide the
potential for even stronger outflow winds that could enhance the
synoptic scale wind speeds mentioned previously with gusts closer
to 40-50 mph possible near convection. /SVH

Wednesday: The potential for showers and thunderstorms will be the
primary weather concern for Wednesday as a positively tilted 500mb
trough lingers over north Idaho. It appears that the trough will
be undergoing a split on Wednesday with the most substantial
synoptic scale forcing shearing into southern Alberta and
Saskatchewan. The 0z ECMWF and 6z NAM dig the 500mb cold pool
into north Idaho and eastern Washington a bit more aggressively
than the GFS. The Weather Prediction Center favors the deeper
solution over north Idaho, so a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms has been retained for places like Sandpoint,
Kellogg, Priest lake and Northport. Elsewhere, limited deep layer
instability and marginal mid-level lapse rates suggest low chances
for convection. Wednesday should be the coolest day region-wide
under the upper level cold pool with afternoon highs in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

Thursday and Friday: A split flow pattern is expected to develop
over the Pacific Northwest Thursday and Friday. A weak upper low
will likely develop near northern California as the southern
polar branch sags southward. The northern branch will be much more
vigorous and cut through the northern/central Canadian Prairies.
Washington and Idaho will be squarely between the two branches of
the jet, and left mainly dry. Look for a gradual warming trend
over the second half of the week into the weekend. /GKoch

Saturday through Monday night: A warming and drying trend will
continue into the weekend over the Inland Northwest, with above
normal temperatures expected. However, yet another trough will
bring cooler temperatures and increased chances for precipitation
early next week.

Weak ridging will nose its way over the region Saturday and
remain there on Sunday before another trough traverses the area
Sunday night into early next week. The ridging will suppress any
chances at precipitation, while also allowing temperatures to rise
into the upper 70s (east) to mid/upper 80s west.

Sunday night or Monday, a trough will beat down the ridge, and
move over the region, cooling temperatures back to seasonal
normals and increasing precipitation chances. Right now, the
precipitation chances look to be confined to the higher terrain of
the Cascades and the mountains of northeast Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A few light showers will linger tonight north of the
TAF sites around Bonners Ferry. There has been a concern for
stratus to redevelop tonight around KSFF/KCOE however dew points
are running around 6 degrees lower at Spokane and Coeur D`Alene
compared to this time yesterday. Also NAM model shows a drier
boundary layer tonight and thus a MVFR stratus deck does not
appear likely for any of the TAF sites. Up near the Canadian
border around Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry a bit more low level
moisture exists where a MVFR stratus deck is possible Monday
morning. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  53  75  50  68  46 /   0   0  10  50  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  72  51  75  49  67  42 /  10   0  10  60  30  20
Pullman        74  48  77  46  68  41 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       79  56  84  55  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Colville       75  48  78  44  70  39 /  10   0  20  60  30  10
Sandpoint      70  48  74  47  64  40 /  10   0  10  70  50  20
Kellogg        68  47  72  46  65  39 /  10   0  10  50  30  20
Moses Lake     81  53  80  51  76  47 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      79  58  78  54  75  52 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           78  55  77  51  76  44 /   0   0  20  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 010954
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be the mildest and least breezy day of the holiday
weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the 70s under
mostly sunny skies. The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon
and evening will bring a return of breezy to windy conditions and
below average temperatures for Wednesday, along with some threat
of showers and thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is
expected Thursday into next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Fairly benign weather pattern as we transition
over onto the stable side of the upper level jet. A little bit of
fog is expected in the morning for the valleys in the Northeast
Mtns and in the Northern Panhandle. High temperatures will be a
few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, but will still be
slightly below normal for the beginning of September.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A dynamic weather system will push into
the region out of BC. This system will drop down on the tail end
of the polar jet streak which will shift northeast across the
region today. Strong upper level dynamics will produce a
deepening surface low that will traverse the eastern edge of the
Great Divide. The cold front associated with this system will push
across the region during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Good cold air advection should allow stronger winds aloft to mix
down to the surface as the front pushes through even as we head
into the evening, which is typically when winds would start to
weaken. Winds up at 850 mbs will be up around 25-30 kts. This
will translate into sustained wind speeds of roughly 18-22 mph
with gusts up around 30-35 mph. Due to the southwesterly track to
this system, winds are expected to be quite windy down the
Okanogan Valley as well as through the Cascade gaps. Then these
winds will filter out over the basin through the evening with
frontal passage. The 06Z NAM has also come in a bit more unstable
and is more supportive of thunderstorms. Best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be across the northern mtns, but chances
will extend as far south as the upper portions of the basin and
the northern portions of the Palouse. The track of storms will
generally be east to southeast with the northern mtns of WA seeing
convection first Tuesday afternoon and then transitioning into the
Panhandle into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms will provide the
potential for even stronger outflow winds that could enhance the
synoptic scale wind speeds mentioned previously with gusts closer
to 40-50 mph possible near convection. /SVH

Wednesday: The potential for showers and thunderstorms will be the
primary weather concern for Wednesday as a positively tilted 500mb
trough lingers over north Idaho. It appears that the trough will
be undergoing a split on Wednesday with the most substantial
synoptic scale forcing shearing into southern Alberta and
Saskatchewan. The 0z ECMWF and 6z NAM dig the 500mb cold pool
into north Idaho and eastern Washington a bit more aggressively
than the GFS. The Weather Prediction Center favors the deeper
solution over north Idaho, so a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms has been retained for places like Sandpoint,
Kellogg, Priest lake and Northport. Elsewhere, limited deep layer
instability and marginal mid-level lapse rates suggest low chances
for convection. Wednesday should be the coolest day region-wide
under the upper level cold pool with afternoon highs in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

Thursday and Friday: A split flow pattern is expected to develop
over the Pacific Northwest Thursday and Friday. A weak upper low
will likely develop near northern California as the southern
polar branch sags southward. The northern branch will be much more
vigorous and cut through the northern/central Canadian Prairies.
Washington and Idaho will be squarely between the two branches of
the jet, and left mainly dry. Look for a gradual warming trend
over the second half of the week into the weekend. /GKoch

Saturday through Monday night: A warming and drying trend will
continue into the weekend over the Inland Northwest, with above
normal temperatures expected. However, yet another trough will
bring cooler temperatures and increased chances for precipitation
early next week.

Weak ridging will nose its way over the region Saturday and
remain there on Sunday before another trough traverses the area
Sunday night into early next week. The ridging will suppress any
chances at precipitation, while also allowing temperatures to rise
into the upper 70s (east) to mid/upper 80s west.

Sunday night or Monday, a trough will beat down the ridge, and
move over the region, cooling temperatures back to seasonal
normals and increasing precipitation chances. Right now, the
precipitation chances look to be confined to the higher terrain of
the Cascades and the mountains of northeast Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A few light showers will linger tonight north of the
TAF sites around Bonners Ferry. There has been a concern for
stratus to redevelop tonight around KSFF/KCOE however dew points
are running around 6 degrees lower at Spokane and Coeur D`Alene
compared to this time yesterday. Also NAM model shows a drier
boundary layer tonight and thus a MVFR stratus deck does not
appear likely for any of the TAF sites. Up near the Canadian
border around Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry a bit more low level
moisture exists where a MVFR stratus deck is possible Monday
morning. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  53  75  50  68  46 /   0   0  10  50  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  72  51  75  49  67  42 /  10   0  10  60  30  20
Pullman        74  48  77  46  68  41 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       79  56  84  55  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Colville       75  48  78  44  70  39 /  10   0  20  60  30  10
Sandpoint      70  48  74  47  64  40 /  10   0  10  70  50  20
Kellogg        68  47  72  46  65  39 /  10   0  10  50  30  20
Moses Lake     81  53  80  51  76  47 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      79  58  78  54  75  52 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           78  55  77  51  76  44 /   0   0  20  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010433
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MON...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS SCATTERING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING NOW AND DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING NOTHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. SO DECIDED TO
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND THE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO DO NOT
EXPECT A VERY IMPRESSIVE INLAND PUSH. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT MUCH BEYOND KELSO. ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MAY FORM ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILD TOWARD THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE NW FLOW REMAINS OVER PAC N TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STORM TRACK WILL KEEP THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. TOMORROW LOOKS DRY AS THREAT
OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS.


THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE AND
KEEP IT DRY TO THE S. LIKE MON...BULK OF PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THEN WILL CHANGE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD FOR WED...AFTER SOME MORNING
CLOUDS. PYLE/ROCKEY

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT SUNDAY.
WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TJ/64
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AFTER 02Z-04Z. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED INLAND
MON MORNING MAINLY AFTER 12Z...BUT INLAND SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
MON AND EVEN COASTAL SITES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MON. A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS 13Z-17Z MON MORNING. BOWEN/TW

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN THAT HAS OCCURRED
SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS....ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST MODELS
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY FURTHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE. ALSO UPPED WIND WAVES AND THUS COMBINED SEAS FOR
THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4
AND 7 FT...PEAKING LATE THURSDAY AT 8 FT...WITH THE PREDOMINANT
SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
BOWEN/TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010433
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MON...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS SCATTERING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING NOW AND DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING NOTHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. SO DECIDED TO
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND THE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO DO NOT
EXPECT A VERY IMPRESSIVE INLAND PUSH. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT MUCH BEYOND KELSO. ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MAY FORM ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILD TOWARD THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE NW FLOW REMAINS OVER PAC N TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STORM TRACK WILL KEEP THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. TOMORROW LOOKS DRY AS THREAT
OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS.


THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE AND
KEEP IT DRY TO THE S. LIKE MON...BULK OF PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THEN WILL CHANGE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD FOR WED...AFTER SOME MORNING
CLOUDS. PYLE/ROCKEY

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT SUNDAY.
WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TJ/64
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AFTER 02Z-04Z. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED INLAND
MON MORNING MAINLY AFTER 12Z...BUT INLAND SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
MON AND EVEN COASTAL SITES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MON. A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS 13Z-17Z MON MORNING. BOWEN/TW

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN THAT HAS OCCURRED
SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS....ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST MODELS
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY FURTHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE. ALSO UPPED WIND WAVES AND THUS COMBINED SEAS FOR
THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4
AND 7 FT...PEAKING LATE THURSDAY AT 8 FT...WITH THE PREDOMINANT
SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
BOWEN/TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010433
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MON...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS SCATTERING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING NOW AND DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING NOTHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. SO DECIDED TO
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND THE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO DO NOT
EXPECT A VERY IMPRESSIVE INLAND PUSH. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT MUCH BEYOND KELSO. ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MAY FORM ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILD TOWARD THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE NW FLOW REMAINS OVER PAC N TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STORM TRACK WILL KEEP THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. TOMORROW LOOKS DRY AS THREAT
OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS.


THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE AND
KEEP IT DRY TO THE S. LIKE MON...BULK OF PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THEN WILL CHANGE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD FOR WED...AFTER SOME MORNING
CLOUDS. PYLE/ROCKEY

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT SUNDAY.
WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TJ/64
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AFTER 02Z-04Z. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED INLAND
MON MORNING MAINLY AFTER 12Z...BUT INLAND SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
MON AND EVEN COASTAL SITES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MON. A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS 13Z-17Z MON MORNING. BOWEN/TW

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN THAT HAS OCCURRED
SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS....ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST MODELS
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY FURTHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE. ALSO UPPED WIND WAVES AND THUS COMBINED SEAS FOR
THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4
AND 7 FT...PEAKING LATE THURSDAY AT 8 FT...WITH THE PREDOMINANT
SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
BOWEN/TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010433
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
931 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MON...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. THEN WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR REST OF THE
WEEK UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS SCATTERING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING NOW AND DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING NOTHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. SO DECIDED TO
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD REFORM ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN PUSH PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND THE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT VERY STRONG...SO DO NOT
EXPECT A VERY IMPRESSIVE INLAND PUSH. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT MUCH BEYOND KELSO. ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MAY FORM ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND BACK BUILD TOWARD THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE NW FLOW REMAINS OVER PAC N TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STORM TRACK WILL KEEP THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO THE N
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. TOMORROW LOOKS DRY AS THREAT
OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS.


THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION.
WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE AND
KEEP IT DRY TO THE S. LIKE MON...BULK OF PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THEN WILL CHANGE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD FOR WED...AFTER SOME MORNING
CLOUDS. PYLE/ROCKEY

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT A LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW OREGON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT SUNDAY.
WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TJ/64
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AFTER 02Z-04Z. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED INLAND
MON MORNING MAINLY AFTER 12Z...BUT INLAND SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
MON AND EVEN COASTAL SITES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MON. A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS 13Z-17Z MON MORNING. BOWEN/TW

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE WATERS IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN THAT HAS OCCURRED
SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS....ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST MODELS
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY FURTHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE. ALSO UPPED WIND WAVES AND THUS COMBINED SEAS FOR
THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4
AND 7 FT...PEAKING LATE THURSDAY AT 8 FT...WITH THE PREDOMINANT
SWELL REMAINING AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
BOWEN/TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010407
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
907 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Labor Day will bring dry conditions with temperatures slightly
below average. The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon will
bring a return of breezy conditions and below average temperatures
for Wednesday, along with some threat of showers and
thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is expected Thursday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: An upper level jet will gradually lift northeast of the
region by Monday morning which will put the Inland Northwest on
the warmer and more stable side of the jet. Still a few showers
remaining this evening around Bonners Ferry but with the jet
lifting north and drier air aloft moving in these should end by
Monday morning. Minor update made to sky cover and POP`s based off
latest satellite and radar trends.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A few light showers will linger tonight north of the
TAF sites around Bonners Ferry. There has been a concern for
stratus to redevelop tonight around KSFF/KCOE however dew points
are running around 6 degrees lower at Spokane and Coeur D`Alene
compared to this time yesterday. Also NAM model shows a drier
boundary layer tonight and thus a MVFR stratus deck does not
appear likely for any of the TAF sites. Up near the Canadian
border around Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry a bit more low level
moisture exists where a MVFR stratus deck is possible Monday
morning. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  74  51  75  50  68 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  49  72  49  75  49  67 /  10  10   0   0  20  30
Pullman        45  74  45  77  46  68 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       54  79  54  84  55  73 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       44  75  45  78  44  70 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Sandpoint      45  70  46  74  47  64 /  10  10   0   0  40  50
Kellogg        47  68  49  72  46  64 /  10  10   0   0  30  30
Moses Lake     49  81  51  80  51  76 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      55  79  57  78  54  75 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           51  78  54  77  51  75 /   0   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010407
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
907 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Labor Day will bring dry conditions with temperatures slightly
below average. The arrival of a cold front Tuesday afternoon will
bring a return of breezy conditions and below average temperatures
for Wednesday, along with some threat of showers and
thunderstorms. A warming and drying trend is expected Thursday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: An upper level jet will gradually lift northeast of the
region by Monday morning which will put the Inland Northwest on
the warmer and more stable side of the jet. Still a few showers
remaining this evening around Bonners Ferry but with the jet
lifting north and drier air aloft moving in these should end by
Monday morning. Minor update made to sky cover and POP`s based off
latest satellite and radar trends.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A few light showers will linger tonight north of the
TAF sites around Bonners Ferry. There has been a concern for
stratus to redevelop tonight around KSFF/KCOE however dew points
are running around 6 degrees lower at Spokane and Coeur D`Alene
compared to this time yesterday. Also NAM model shows a drier
boundary layer tonight and thus a MVFR stratus deck does not
appear likely for any of the TAF sites. Up near the Canadian
border around Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry a bit more low level
moisture exists where a MVFR stratus deck is possible Monday
morning. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  74  51  75  50  68 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  49  72  49  75  49  67 /  10  10   0   0  20  30
Pullman        45  74  45  77  46  68 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       54  79  54  84  55  73 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       44  75  45  78  44  70 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Sandpoint      45  70  46  74  47  64 /  10  10   0   0  40  50
Kellogg        47  68  49  72  46  64 /  10  10   0   0  30  30
Moses Lake     49  81  51  80  51  76 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      55  79  57  78  54  75 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           51  78  54  77  51  75 /   0   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 010334
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
834 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COAST AND NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. RAIN IS
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING
AND DRYING PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT WILL BRUSH PAST THE NORTH PART OF W
WA TONIGHT. THE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CASCADES...BUT
MAINLY THE NORTH PART. IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LOT
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD SPREAD OVER W WA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE OLYMPICS MAY SHIELD THE PUGET SOUND REGION
A BIT. THE VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL GLIDE TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN FALL APART
MONDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE N COAST AND N
INTERIOR MONDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND
SW INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEAST AFFECTED BY THE DISSIPATING
FRONT AND SO COULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE GULF OF AK THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE SE ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER W WA ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL
TIMING HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST MODEL WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS WETTEST WITH 2 TO 4 TENTHS OVER THE NORTH. THIS IS A
FAIRLY DRY TRACK FOR THE TROUGH AND IT IS FAST MOVING...SO ACTUAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY FALL IN-BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
THE TROUGH WILL DRAG MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS OVER THE CASCADES DROPPING DOWN TO JUST ABOVE
6000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND FOR A TINY BIT OF MOUNTAIN S.N.O.W.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER N FLOW ALOFT FROM AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. WELL DEVELOPED SW ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP THE LOWER AIR MASS MOIST WITH STRATUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT THE STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
BY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT
THE RESIDUAL COOL AIR MASS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAP MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 334 PM AFD...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
BUCKLING INTO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE ANCHORED BY A LARGE SCALE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD ALONG 140W
TUESDAY AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO
DISAGREE ON THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN OR CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
NONETHELESS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DRIER AND WARMER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SYSTEM RIDING OVER
THE TOP RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
REACHES THE COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY MOIST
AND STABLE...EXCEPT WEAKLY UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF SEATTLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOME PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...LIFTING AND SCATTERING BY 18Z.

KSEA...LIGHT WIND...BECOMING S-SW TO 5 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN LIFT AND
SCATTER BY 18Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE COAST
MONDAY MORNING...GIVING A SLY BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A BOUT OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN EASING ON WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A
MORE SUMMERY WIND REGIME WITH A TYPICAL NW BREEZE EACH DAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     THROUGH 1 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 010334
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
834 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COAST AND NORTH CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. RAIN IS
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING
AND DRYING PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT WILL BRUSH PAST THE NORTH PART OF W
WA TONIGHT. THE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CASCADES...BUT
MAINLY THE NORTH PART. IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LOT
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD SPREAD OVER W WA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE OLYMPICS MAY SHIELD THE PUGET SOUND REGION
A BIT. THE VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL GLIDE TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN FALL APART
MONDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE N COAST AND N
INTERIOR MONDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND
SW INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEAST AFFECTED BY THE DISSIPATING
FRONT AND SO COULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE GULF OF AK THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE SE ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER W WA ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL
TIMING HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST MODEL WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS WETTEST WITH 2 TO 4 TENTHS OVER THE NORTH. THIS IS A
FAIRLY DRY TRACK FOR THE TROUGH AND IT IS FAST MOVING...SO ACTUAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY FALL IN-BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
THE TROUGH WILL DRAG MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS OVER THE CASCADES DROPPING DOWN TO JUST ABOVE
6000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND FOR A TINY BIT OF MOUNTAIN S.N.O.W.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER N FLOW ALOFT FROM AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. WELL DEVELOPED SW ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP THE LOWER AIR MASS MOIST WITH STRATUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT THE STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
BY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT
THE RESIDUAL COOL AIR MASS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAP MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 334 PM AFD...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
BUCKLING INTO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE ANCHORED BY A LARGE SCALE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD ALONG 140W
TUESDAY AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO
DISAGREE ON THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN OR CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
NONETHELESS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DRIER AND WARMER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SYSTEM RIDING OVER
THE TOP RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
REACHES THE COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY MOIST
AND STABLE...EXCEPT WEAKLY UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF SEATTLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOME PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...LIFTING AND SCATTERING BY 18Z.

KSEA...LIGHT WIND...BECOMING S-SW TO 5 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN LIFT AND
SCATTER BY 18Z. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE COAST
MONDAY MORNING...GIVING A SLY BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A BOUT OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN EASING ON WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A
MORE SUMMERY WIND REGIME WITH A TYPICAL NW BREEZE EACH DAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     THROUGH 1 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













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