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000
FXUS66 KOTX 311250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
450 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another cloudy and chilly day in the Inland
Northwest. A frontal system will bring light snow to much of the
region on Sunday. Another front is expected on Monday, and it
should bring rain and mountain snow. Thursday and Friday also look
quite rainy next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Light Snow Accumulations Likely Sunday...

Today: A quick moving Clipper-type system will dive into Montana
this morning. This system influenced our weather overnight causing
the fog layer to lift a bit over north Idaho and eastern
Washington. It provided just enough mid level cooling to bump our
inversion layer up several hundred feet. The subtle lifting of the
fog/stratus layer coupled with some southerly low level upslope
flow produced light snow/flurries over the West Plains and
portions of north Idaho. As the Clipper moves southeastward this
morning, the boundary layer flow will transition from
south/southwest to a more north/northwest. This low level flow
regime generally favors precipitation over southern Shoshone
county, the Camas Prairie, and Palouse. By afternoon, the
influence of the Clipper will probably diminish as it moves toward
Wyoming. It is doubtful that the deep and widespread stratus deck
will break up much this afternoon. Last evening`s sounding from
Spokane showed the status deck to be about 2000 feet
thick...probably too formidable to be broken by today`s Clipper.

Tonight and Sunday: Our resident upper level ridge will be
flattened on Sunday by a moist frontal system. This front will be
shoved in our direction by a large upper low anchored over the
Gulf of Alaska. The center of this upper low won`t move much as it
sends this shearing frontal system our way. Without much upper
level support, the surface features with Sunday`s system aren`t
particularly impressive. What this system lacks in strong synoptic
forcing, it makes up with moisture. The subtropical origins of
this front should produce widespread light snow from the East
Slopes to northeast Washington to north Idaho. The relatively weak
wind fields actually look to limit mixing with this system which
should keep temperatures cold enough to support snow Sunday
afternoon and evening over most of the central and northern Idaho
Panhandle and most of northeast Washington. Valley locations like
Colville, Sandpoint, Spokane, Kellogg will have a good shot at an
inch or two of snow. Pavement temperatures Sunday afternoon could
be marginal for significant road accumulations. If the bulk of the
snow arrives toward evening, the chance for slick driving
conditions will be heightened. Snow intensities also play a big
role in how efficiently snow accumulates. With the "big game"
Sunday afternoon, motorists may experience winter driving
conditions to and from parties. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday night...Longwave ridge positioning over
the Pacific Northwest allows for continued warm trajectory of
approach from southwest to northeast. Initially there is a brief
break in systems early Monday but another system riding up the
same southwest to northeast tap of moisture that feed the Sunday
system spreads more precipitation, mostly in the form of rain with
fairly high snow levels, Monday and Monday evening. Monday night
the system looks to have made an exit into Northwest Montana with
the trailing moisture feed translated to the south passing over
Oregon instead of Washington. Indeed there may be what looks to be
a bit of a cold front at around that time that drops down from the
north Tuesday. It looks to impact snow levels and temperatures
mainly up near the Southern British Columbia Border Tuesday and
Wednesday but it is rather weak and doesn`t make much, if any,
dent in the lingering ridge of high pressure in the area. There is
a brief break between systems Wednesday night with the exit of the
cold front before more weather systems with warm southwest to
northeast trajectories of approach bring more wet weather, rather
high snow levels, and mild temperatures to the region.
Additionally after Tuesday with all this moisture available,
generally light surface winds, and general high pressure it
doesn`t seem unreasonable to expect any areas lacking
precipitation during the overnight hours to have fog and/or low
clouds reappear, and with them perhaps drizzle and/or flurries to
fall out of it at times as well. /Pelatti

Thursday through Friday Night: Activity level picks up once again
as a series of systems are slated to pass through the region late
in the week. While models have slight differences with precise
timing and subtle details, they agree on an increasingly warm and
wet pattern for the later part of the work week. Multiple warm
fronts supplied with a warm subtropical moisture feed will once
again bring widespread precipitation to the region. The first
round comes Thursday into Friday with the first warm frontal
passage. Thursday into Thursday Night appears to be the most
complex period as the transition of precip type for the northern
and Cascade valleys takes place. Enough cold air remains to
support snow Thursday before the warmer flow intrudes overnight.
By Thursday night warmer air overruns the colder in the far
northern valleys to promote a potential period of freezing rain.
By Friday the next surge of warm air will end the chance for mixed
precip in the valleys with snow levels rising to over 7000ft in
the south and near 6000 for much of the north. This will even
transition many mountain locations to rain by Friday and into
Friday night.

Late in the period we see mild southerly winds pick up allowing
for much better warm air advection. Temperatures rise to above
normal levels with highs reaching the upper 30s and 40s for most
by Friday while overnight lows sit above the freezing mark for the
vast majority. Overall the period looks to simply add insult to
injury as we continue to struggle in building any notable mountain
snow-pack this winter. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Light snow or flurries should be on the decrease by 15z
around Spokane and Coeur D`Alene as low pressure system dives into
Montana and Wyoming by this afternoon. Flurries or drizzle may
persist in Pullman and the southern Idaho Panhandle until 19z-21z.
With the upper level ridge rebounding this afternoon following the
passage of the Montana system, look for the stratus deck to
persist through the TAF period. The inversion layer may lift and
drop today and tonight causing ceilings to rise and lower. In
general, ceilings at most sites are expected to be in the
800-2000 ft range. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  29  34  32  37  32 /  10  10  70  40  80  50
Coeur d`Alene  34  28  34  32  38  34 /  10  10  90  60  90  60
Pullman        37  32  40  36  44  37 /  10  10  50  60  90  60
Lewiston       43  33  44  37  48  39 /  10  10  40  40  70  50
Colville       36  28  34  30  34  31 /  10  10  90  40  60  40
Sandpoint      34  26  33  30  35  32 /  20  10  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        37  27  35  33  37  34 /  20  10  90  80  90  90
Moses Lake     39  31  39  31  41  35 /   0  10  30  20  50  20
Wenatchee      38  31  39  32  40  34 /   0  30  40  20  40  20
Omak           37  31  34  30  35  31 /   0  30  60  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 311250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
450 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another cloudy and chilly day in the Inland
Northwest. A frontal system will bring light snow to much of the
region on Sunday. Another front is expected on Monday, and it
should bring rain and mountain snow. Thursday and Friday also look
quite rainy next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Light Snow Accumulations Likely Sunday...

Today: A quick moving Clipper-type system will dive into Montana
this morning. This system influenced our weather overnight causing
the fog layer to lift a bit over north Idaho and eastern
Washington. It provided just enough mid level cooling to bump our
inversion layer up several hundred feet. The subtle lifting of the
fog/stratus layer coupled with some southerly low level upslope
flow produced light snow/flurries over the West Plains and
portions of north Idaho. As the Clipper moves southeastward this
morning, the boundary layer flow will transition from
south/southwest to a more north/northwest. This low level flow
regime generally favors precipitation over southern Shoshone
county, the Camas Prairie, and Palouse. By afternoon, the
influence of the Clipper will probably diminish as it moves toward
Wyoming. It is doubtful that the deep and widespread stratus deck
will break up much this afternoon. Last evening`s sounding from
Spokane showed the status deck to be about 2000 feet
thick...probably too formidable to be broken by today`s Clipper.

Tonight and Sunday: Our resident upper level ridge will be
flattened on Sunday by a moist frontal system. This front will be
shoved in our direction by a large upper low anchored over the
Gulf of Alaska. The center of this upper low won`t move much as it
sends this shearing frontal system our way. Without much upper
level support, the surface features with Sunday`s system aren`t
particularly impressive. What this system lacks in strong synoptic
forcing, it makes up with moisture. The subtropical origins of
this front should produce widespread light snow from the East
Slopes to northeast Washington to north Idaho. The relatively weak
wind fields actually look to limit mixing with this system which
should keep temperatures cold enough to support snow Sunday
afternoon and evening over most of the central and northern Idaho
Panhandle and most of northeast Washington. Valley locations like
Colville, Sandpoint, Spokane, Kellogg will have a good shot at an
inch or two of snow. Pavement temperatures Sunday afternoon could
be marginal for significant road accumulations. If the bulk of the
snow arrives toward evening, the chance for slick driving
conditions will be heightened. Snow intensities also play a big
role in how efficiently snow accumulates. With the "big game"
Sunday afternoon, motorists may experience winter driving
conditions to and from parties. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday night...Longwave ridge positioning over
the Pacific Northwest allows for continued warm trajectory of
approach from southwest to northeast. Initially there is a brief
break in systems early Monday but another system riding up the
same southwest to northeast tap of moisture that feed the Sunday
system spreads more precipitation, mostly in the form of rain with
fairly high snow levels, Monday and Monday evening. Monday night
the system looks to have made an exit into Northwest Montana with
the trailing moisture feed translated to the south passing over
Oregon instead of Washington. Indeed there may be what looks to be
a bit of a cold front at around that time that drops down from the
north Tuesday. It looks to impact snow levels and temperatures
mainly up near the Southern British Columbia Border Tuesday and
Wednesday but it is rather weak and doesn`t make much, if any,
dent in the lingering ridge of high pressure in the area. There is
a brief break between systems Wednesday night with the exit of the
cold front before more weather systems with warm southwest to
northeast trajectories of approach bring more wet weather, rather
high snow levels, and mild temperatures to the region.
Additionally after Tuesday with all this moisture available,
generally light surface winds, and general high pressure it
doesn`t seem unreasonable to expect any areas lacking
precipitation during the overnight hours to have fog and/or low
clouds reappear, and with them perhaps drizzle and/or flurries to
fall out of it at times as well. /Pelatti

Thursday through Friday Night: Activity level picks up once again
as a series of systems are slated to pass through the region late
in the week. While models have slight differences with precise
timing and subtle details, they agree on an increasingly warm and
wet pattern for the later part of the work week. Multiple warm
fronts supplied with a warm subtropical moisture feed will once
again bring widespread precipitation to the region. The first
round comes Thursday into Friday with the first warm frontal
passage. Thursday into Thursday Night appears to be the most
complex period as the transition of precip type for the northern
and Cascade valleys takes place. Enough cold air remains to
support snow Thursday before the warmer flow intrudes overnight.
By Thursday night warmer air overruns the colder in the far
northern valleys to promote a potential period of freezing rain.
By Friday the next surge of warm air will end the chance for mixed
precip in the valleys with snow levels rising to over 7000ft in
the south and near 6000 for much of the north. This will even
transition many mountain locations to rain by Friday and into
Friday night.

Late in the period we see mild southerly winds pick up allowing
for much better warm air advection. Temperatures rise to above
normal levels with highs reaching the upper 30s and 40s for most
by Friday while overnight lows sit above the freezing mark for the
vast majority. Overall the period looks to simply add insult to
injury as we continue to struggle in building any notable mountain
snow-pack this winter. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Light snow or flurries should be on the decrease by 15z
around Spokane and Coeur D`Alene as low pressure system dives into
Montana and Wyoming by this afternoon. Flurries or drizzle may
persist in Pullman and the southern Idaho Panhandle until 19z-21z.
With the upper level ridge rebounding this afternoon following the
passage of the Montana system, look for the stratus deck to
persist through the TAF period. The inversion layer may lift and
drop today and tonight causing ceilings to rise and lower. In
general, ceilings at most sites are expected to be in the
800-2000 ft range. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  29  34  32  37  32 /  10  10  70  40  80  50
Coeur d`Alene  34  28  34  32  38  34 /  10  10  90  60  90  60
Pullman        37  32  40  36  44  37 /  10  10  50  60  90  60
Lewiston       43  33  44  37  48  39 /  10  10  40  40  70  50
Colville       36  28  34  30  34  31 /  10  10  90  40  60  40
Sandpoint      34  26  33  30  35  32 /  20  10  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        37  27  35  33  37  34 /  20  10  90  80  90  90
Moses Lake     39  31  39  31  41  35 /   0  10  30  20  50  20
Wenatchee      38  31  39  32  40  34 /   0  30  40  20  40  20
Omak           37  31  34  30  35  31 /   0  30  60  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 311250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
450 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another cloudy and chilly day in the Inland
Northwest. A frontal system will bring light snow to much of the
region on Sunday. Another front is expected on Monday, and it
should bring rain and mountain snow. Thursday and Friday also look
quite rainy next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Light Snow Accumulations Likely Sunday...

Today: A quick moving Clipper-type system will dive into Montana
this morning. This system influenced our weather overnight causing
the fog layer to lift a bit over north Idaho and eastern
Washington. It provided just enough mid level cooling to bump our
inversion layer up several hundred feet. The subtle lifting of the
fog/stratus layer coupled with some southerly low level upslope
flow produced light snow/flurries over the West Plains and
portions of north Idaho. As the Clipper moves southeastward this
morning, the boundary layer flow will transition from
south/southwest to a more north/northwest. This low level flow
regime generally favors precipitation over southern Shoshone
county, the Camas Prairie, and Palouse. By afternoon, the
influence of the Clipper will probably diminish as it moves toward
Wyoming. It is doubtful that the deep and widespread stratus deck
will break up much this afternoon. Last evening`s sounding from
Spokane showed the status deck to be about 2000 feet
thick...probably too formidable to be broken by today`s Clipper.

Tonight and Sunday: Our resident upper level ridge will be
flattened on Sunday by a moist frontal system. This front will be
shoved in our direction by a large upper low anchored over the
Gulf of Alaska. The center of this upper low won`t move much as it
sends this shearing frontal system our way. Without much upper
level support, the surface features with Sunday`s system aren`t
particularly impressive. What this system lacks in strong synoptic
forcing, it makes up with moisture. The subtropical origins of
this front should produce widespread light snow from the East
Slopes to northeast Washington to north Idaho. The relatively weak
wind fields actually look to limit mixing with this system which
should keep temperatures cold enough to support snow Sunday
afternoon and evening over most of the central and northern Idaho
Panhandle and most of northeast Washington. Valley locations like
Colville, Sandpoint, Spokane, Kellogg will have a good shot at an
inch or two of snow. Pavement temperatures Sunday afternoon could
be marginal for significant road accumulations. If the bulk of the
snow arrives toward evening, the chance for slick driving
conditions will be heightened. Snow intensities also play a big
role in how efficiently snow accumulates. With the "big game"
Sunday afternoon, motorists may experience winter driving
conditions to and from parties. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday night...Longwave ridge positioning over
the Pacific Northwest allows for continued warm trajectory of
approach from southwest to northeast. Initially there is a brief
break in systems early Monday but another system riding up the
same southwest to northeast tap of moisture that feed the Sunday
system spreads more precipitation, mostly in the form of rain with
fairly high snow levels, Monday and Monday evening. Monday night
the system looks to have made an exit into Northwest Montana with
the trailing moisture feed translated to the south passing over
Oregon instead of Washington. Indeed there may be what looks to be
a bit of a cold front at around that time that drops down from the
north Tuesday. It looks to impact snow levels and temperatures
mainly up near the Southern British Columbia Border Tuesday and
Wednesday but it is rather weak and doesn`t make much, if any,
dent in the lingering ridge of high pressure in the area. There is
a brief break between systems Wednesday night with the exit of the
cold front before more weather systems with warm southwest to
northeast trajectories of approach bring more wet weather, rather
high snow levels, and mild temperatures to the region.
Additionally after Tuesday with all this moisture available,
generally light surface winds, and general high pressure it
doesn`t seem unreasonable to expect any areas lacking
precipitation during the overnight hours to have fog and/or low
clouds reappear, and with them perhaps drizzle and/or flurries to
fall out of it at times as well. /Pelatti

Thursday through Friday Night: Activity level picks up once again
as a series of systems are slated to pass through the region late
in the week. While models have slight differences with precise
timing and subtle details, they agree on an increasingly warm and
wet pattern for the later part of the work week. Multiple warm
fronts supplied with a warm subtropical moisture feed will once
again bring widespread precipitation to the region. The first
round comes Thursday into Friday with the first warm frontal
passage. Thursday into Thursday Night appears to be the most
complex period as the transition of precip type for the northern
and Cascade valleys takes place. Enough cold air remains to
support snow Thursday before the warmer flow intrudes overnight.
By Thursday night warmer air overruns the colder in the far
northern valleys to promote a potential period of freezing rain.
By Friday the next surge of warm air will end the chance for mixed
precip in the valleys with snow levels rising to over 7000ft in
the south and near 6000 for much of the north. This will even
transition many mountain locations to rain by Friday and into
Friday night.

Late in the period we see mild southerly winds pick up allowing
for much better warm air advection. Temperatures rise to above
normal levels with highs reaching the upper 30s and 40s for most
by Friday while overnight lows sit above the freezing mark for the
vast majority. Overall the period looks to simply add insult to
injury as we continue to struggle in building any notable mountain
snow-pack this winter. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Light snow or flurries should be on the decrease by 15z
around Spokane and Coeur D`Alene as low pressure system dives into
Montana and Wyoming by this afternoon. Flurries or drizzle may
persist in Pullman and the southern Idaho Panhandle until 19z-21z.
With the upper level ridge rebounding this afternoon following the
passage of the Montana system, look for the stratus deck to
persist through the TAF period. The inversion layer may lift and
drop today and tonight causing ceilings to rise and lower. In
general, ceilings at most sites are expected to be in the
800-2000 ft range. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  29  34  32  37  32 /  10  10  70  40  80  50
Coeur d`Alene  34  28  34  32  38  34 /  10  10  90  60  90  60
Pullman        37  32  40  36  44  37 /  10  10  50  60  90  60
Lewiston       43  33  44  37  48  39 /  10  10  40  40  70  50
Colville       36  28  34  30  34  31 /  10  10  90  40  60  40
Sandpoint      34  26  33  30  35  32 /  20  10  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        37  27  35  33  37  34 /  20  10  90  80  90  90
Moses Lake     39  31  39  31  41  35 /   0  10  30  20  50  20
Wenatchee      38  31  39  32  40  34 /   0  30  40  20  40  20
Omak           37  31  34  30  35  31 /   0  30  60  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 311250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
450 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another cloudy and chilly day in the Inland
Northwest. A frontal system will bring light snow to much of the
region on Sunday. Another front is expected on Monday, and it
should bring rain and mountain snow. Thursday and Friday also look
quite rainy next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Light Snow Accumulations Likely Sunday...

Today: A quick moving Clipper-type system will dive into Montana
this morning. This system influenced our weather overnight causing
the fog layer to lift a bit over north Idaho and eastern
Washington. It provided just enough mid level cooling to bump our
inversion layer up several hundred feet. The subtle lifting of the
fog/stratus layer coupled with some southerly low level upslope
flow produced light snow/flurries over the West Plains and
portions of north Idaho. As the Clipper moves southeastward this
morning, the boundary layer flow will transition from
south/southwest to a more north/northwest. This low level flow
regime generally favors precipitation over southern Shoshone
county, the Camas Prairie, and Palouse. By afternoon, the
influence of the Clipper will probably diminish as it moves toward
Wyoming. It is doubtful that the deep and widespread stratus deck
will break up much this afternoon. Last evening`s sounding from
Spokane showed the status deck to be about 2000 feet
thick...probably too formidable to be broken by today`s Clipper.

Tonight and Sunday: Our resident upper level ridge will be
flattened on Sunday by a moist frontal system. This front will be
shoved in our direction by a large upper low anchored over the
Gulf of Alaska. The center of this upper low won`t move much as it
sends this shearing frontal system our way. Without much upper
level support, the surface features with Sunday`s system aren`t
particularly impressive. What this system lacks in strong synoptic
forcing, it makes up with moisture. The subtropical origins of
this front should produce widespread light snow from the East
Slopes to northeast Washington to north Idaho. The relatively weak
wind fields actually look to limit mixing with this system which
should keep temperatures cold enough to support snow Sunday
afternoon and evening over most of the central and northern Idaho
Panhandle and most of northeast Washington. Valley locations like
Colville, Sandpoint, Spokane, Kellogg will have a good shot at an
inch or two of snow. Pavement temperatures Sunday afternoon could
be marginal for significant road accumulations. If the bulk of the
snow arrives toward evening, the chance for slick driving
conditions will be heightened. Snow intensities also play a big
role in how efficiently snow accumulates. With the "big game"
Sunday afternoon, motorists may experience winter driving
conditions to and from parties. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday night...Longwave ridge positioning over
the Pacific Northwest allows for continued warm trajectory of
approach from southwest to northeast. Initially there is a brief
break in systems early Monday but another system riding up the
same southwest to northeast tap of moisture that feed the Sunday
system spreads more precipitation, mostly in the form of rain with
fairly high snow levels, Monday and Monday evening. Monday night
the system looks to have made an exit into Northwest Montana with
the trailing moisture feed translated to the south passing over
Oregon instead of Washington. Indeed there may be what looks to be
a bit of a cold front at around that time that drops down from the
north Tuesday. It looks to impact snow levels and temperatures
mainly up near the Southern British Columbia Border Tuesday and
Wednesday but it is rather weak and doesn`t make much, if any,
dent in the lingering ridge of high pressure in the area. There is
a brief break between systems Wednesday night with the exit of the
cold front before more weather systems with warm southwest to
northeast trajectories of approach bring more wet weather, rather
high snow levels, and mild temperatures to the region.
Additionally after Tuesday with all this moisture available,
generally light surface winds, and general high pressure it
doesn`t seem unreasonable to expect any areas lacking
precipitation during the overnight hours to have fog and/or low
clouds reappear, and with them perhaps drizzle and/or flurries to
fall out of it at times as well. /Pelatti

Thursday through Friday Night: Activity level picks up once again
as a series of systems are slated to pass through the region late
in the week. While models have slight differences with precise
timing and subtle details, they agree on an increasingly warm and
wet pattern for the later part of the work week. Multiple warm
fronts supplied with a warm subtropical moisture feed will once
again bring widespread precipitation to the region. The first
round comes Thursday into Friday with the first warm frontal
passage. Thursday into Thursday Night appears to be the most
complex period as the transition of precip type for the northern
and Cascade valleys takes place. Enough cold air remains to
support snow Thursday before the warmer flow intrudes overnight.
By Thursday night warmer air overruns the colder in the far
northern valleys to promote a potential period of freezing rain.
By Friday the next surge of warm air will end the chance for mixed
precip in the valleys with snow levels rising to over 7000ft in
the south and near 6000 for much of the north. This will even
transition many mountain locations to rain by Friday and into
Friday night.

Late in the period we see mild southerly winds pick up allowing
for much better warm air advection. Temperatures rise to above
normal levels with highs reaching the upper 30s and 40s for most
by Friday while overnight lows sit above the freezing mark for the
vast majority. Overall the period looks to simply add insult to
injury as we continue to struggle in building any notable mountain
snow-pack this winter. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Light snow or flurries should be on the decrease by 15z
around Spokane and Coeur D`Alene as low pressure system dives into
Montana and Wyoming by this afternoon. Flurries or drizzle may
persist in Pullman and the southern Idaho Panhandle until 19z-21z.
With the upper level ridge rebounding this afternoon following the
passage of the Montana system, look for the stratus deck to
persist through the TAF period. The inversion layer may lift and
drop today and tonight causing ceilings to rise and lower. In
general, ceilings at most sites are expected to be in the
800-2000 ft range. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  29  34  32  37  32 /  10  10  70  40  80  50
Coeur d`Alene  34  28  34  32  38  34 /  10  10  90  60  90  60
Pullman        37  32  40  36  44  37 /  10  10  50  60  90  60
Lewiston       43  33  44  37  48  39 /  10  10  40  40  70  50
Colville       36  28  34  30  34  31 /  10  10  90  40  60  40
Sandpoint      34  26  33  30  35  32 /  20  10  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        37  27  35  33  37  34 /  20  10  90  80  90  90
Moses Lake     39  31  39  31  41  35 /   0  10  30  20  50  20
Wenatchee      38  31  39  32  40  34 /   0  30  40  20  40  20
Omak           37  31  34  30  35  31 /   0  30  60  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 311210
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
350 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS VALLEY
(PIC0). LOCATIONS WITHOUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AT
3AM/11Z.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS HOW LONG THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LAST. SANDPOINT PROFILER SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT OFFSHORE AND WITH
AN OFFSHORE FRONT APPROACHING TODAY THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE. CURRENT KOLM-KBLI AND KUIL-KBLI GRADIENTS ARE -1 AND -2
MB. BY 00Z MONDAY THESE NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER TO -2 AND -3 MB
(PIC1). MORNING PILOT REPORT FROM SEA-TAC PUTS THE TOPS BETWEEN 600
AND 1000 FEET. WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW...WEAKENING OF THE
INVERSION...AND THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY WITH
THE FOGGY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT GO FOR SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

WARM FRONT MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT (PIC2)...CLOSE
ENOUGH TO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH EARLY ON TO PREVENT MORE FOG FROM FORMING ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD, THE GFS AND NAM ARE THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS (PIC3) WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS THE PARENT LOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WAY BACK NEAR 45N/157W (PIC5) WITH THE LOW ACTUALLY MOVING WESTWARD
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT LOW PREFER
THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MOVE THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. GOING WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL
HAVE RAIN AT TIMES FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH A RAIN LIKELY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WITH THE QPF VALUES LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE ONE SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY (PIC4) KEEPING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ONE FOR SUNDAY
AND WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN
TO 4000-4500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE NEAR 50.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS
THIS MORNING VERSUS YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME BIG
INCONSISTENCIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON TUESDAY THE ECMWF
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD A WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WHILE THE GFS
HAS THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST AND HAS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER
VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON (PIC5). ON WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS A WARM
FRONT UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T EVEN
HAVE THIS FEATURE AND INSTEAD HAS A DRY FORECAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OFF THE COAST AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW (PIC6). THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BEGINNING THURSDAY THE PATTERN WILL TURN
WARMER AND WETTER FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (PIC7)(PIC8). SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO BE ABOVE 5000 FEET BEGINNING THURSDAY RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 7000 FEET ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL
HAVE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL STAY
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES/ RAIN LIKELY FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING BY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING LATER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS STARTING FRIDAY OR NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY
THURSDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT/FELTON

.CLIMATE...65 YEARS AGO THIS MORNING SEATTLE RECORDED ITS COLDEST
TEMPERATURE...0 AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONT
SUNDAY. LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. FOG IN THE LOWLANDS (PIC0)
OTHERWISE JUST INCREASING CIRRUS TODAY.

KSEA...FOG CONTINUES. AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HELP PUSH IT
OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW AND AREAS OF FOG. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON MAY HELP TO PUSH THE FOG AWAY (PIC1). THE FOG WILL BE
DONE SUNDAY WITH STRONGER FLOW AND A FRONT (PIC3)...AND ANOTHER
FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY (PIC4).

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
















000
FXUS66 KSEW 311210
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
350 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS VALLEY
(PIC0). LOCATIONS WITHOUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AT
3AM/11Z.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS HOW LONG THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LAST. SANDPOINT PROFILER SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT OFFSHORE AND WITH
AN OFFSHORE FRONT APPROACHING TODAY THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE. CURRENT KOLM-KBLI AND KUIL-KBLI GRADIENTS ARE -1 AND -2
MB. BY 00Z MONDAY THESE NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER TO -2 AND -3 MB
(PIC1). MORNING PILOT REPORT FROM SEA-TAC PUTS THE TOPS BETWEEN 600
AND 1000 FEET. WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW...WEAKENING OF THE
INVERSION...AND THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY WITH
THE FOGGY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT GO FOR SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

WARM FRONT MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT (PIC2)...CLOSE
ENOUGH TO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH EARLY ON TO PREVENT MORE FOG FROM FORMING ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD, THE GFS AND NAM ARE THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS (PIC3) WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS THE PARENT LOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WAY BACK NEAR 45N/157W (PIC5) WITH THE LOW ACTUALLY MOVING WESTWARD
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT LOW PREFER
THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MOVE THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. GOING WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL
HAVE RAIN AT TIMES FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH A RAIN LIKELY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WITH THE QPF VALUES LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE ONE SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY (PIC4) KEEPING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ONE FOR SUNDAY
AND WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN
TO 4000-4500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE NEAR 50.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS
THIS MORNING VERSUS YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME BIG
INCONSISTENCIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON TUESDAY THE ECMWF
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD A WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WHILE THE GFS
HAS THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST AND HAS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER
VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON (PIC5). ON WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS A WARM
FRONT UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T EVEN
HAVE THIS FEATURE AND INSTEAD HAS A DRY FORECAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OFF THE COAST AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW (PIC6). THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BEGINNING THURSDAY THE PATTERN WILL TURN
WARMER AND WETTER FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (PIC7)(PIC8). SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO BE ABOVE 5000 FEET BEGINNING THURSDAY RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 7000 FEET ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL
HAVE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL STAY
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES/ RAIN LIKELY FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING BY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING LATER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS STARTING FRIDAY OR NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY
THURSDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT/FELTON

.CLIMATE...65 YEARS AGO THIS MORNING SEATTLE RECORDED ITS COLDEST
TEMPERATURE...0 AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONT
SUNDAY. LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. FOG IN THE LOWLANDS (PIC0)
OTHERWISE JUST INCREASING CIRRUS TODAY.

KSEA...FOG CONTINUES. AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HELP PUSH IT
OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW AND AREAS OF FOG. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON MAY HELP TO PUSH THE FOG AWAY (PIC1). THE FOG WILL BE
DONE SUNDAY WITH STRONGER FLOW AND A FRONT (PIC3)...AND ANOTHER
FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY (PIC4).

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 311153
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
350 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS VALLEY.
LOCATIONS WITHOUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AT 3AM/11Z.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS HOW LONG THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LAST. SANDPOINT PROFILER SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT OFFSHORE AND WITH
AN OFFSHORE FRONT APPROACHING TODAY THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE. CURRENT KOLM-KBLI AND KUIL-KBLI GRADIENTS ARE -1 AND -2
MB. BY 00Z MONDAY THESE NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER TO -2 AND -3 MB.
MORNING PILOT REPORT FROM SEA-TAC PUTS THE TOPS BETWEEN 600 AND 1000
FEET. WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW...WEAKENING OF THE
INVERSION...AND THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY WITH
THE FOGGY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT GO FOR SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

WARM FRONT MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH
EARLY ON TO PREVENT MORE FOG FROM FORMING ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD, THE GFS AND NAM ARE THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS THE PARENT LOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WAY
BACK NEAR 45N/157W WITH THE LOW ACTUALLY MOVING WESTWARD IN THE LAST
FEW HOURS. WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT LOW PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. GOING WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE RAIN
AT TIMES FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH A RAIN LIKELY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH THE QPF VALUES LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE ONE SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ONE FOR SUNDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO 4000-4500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR 50.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS
THIS MORNING VERSUS YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME BIG
INCONSISTENCIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON TUESDAY THE ECMWF
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD A WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WHILE THE GFS
HAS THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST AND HAS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER
VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON. ON WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS A WARM FRONT UP
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T EVEN HAVE THIS
FEATURE AND INSTEAD HAS A DRY FORECAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE COAST AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT BEGINNING THURSDAY THE PATTERN WILL TURN WARMER AND WETTER FOR
WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
BEGINNING THURSDAY RISING TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET ON FRIDAY. WITH
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL HAVE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL STAY WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES/ RAIN LIKELY
FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.
FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING BY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING LATER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS STARTING FRIDAY OR NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY
THURSDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT/FELTON

.CLIMATE...65 YEARS AGO THIS MORNING SEATTLE RECORDED ITS COLDEST
TEMPERATURE...0 AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONT
SUNDAY. LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. FOG IN THE LOWLANDS OTHERWISE
JUST INCREASING CIRRUS TODAY.

KSEA...FOG CONTINUES. AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HELP PUSH IT
OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW AND AREAS OF FOG. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON MAY HELP TO PUSH THE FOG AWAY. THE FOG WILL BE DONE
SUNDAY WITH STRONGER FLOW AND A FRONT...AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA MONDAY.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 311153
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
350 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS VALLEY.
LOCATIONS WITHOUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AT 3AM/11Z.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS HOW LONG THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LAST. SANDPOINT PROFILER SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT OFFSHORE AND WITH
AN OFFSHORE FRONT APPROACHING TODAY THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE. CURRENT KOLM-KBLI AND KUIL-KBLI GRADIENTS ARE -1 AND -2
MB. BY 00Z MONDAY THESE NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER TO -2 AND -3 MB.
MORNING PILOT REPORT FROM SEA-TAC PUTS THE TOPS BETWEEN 600 AND 1000
FEET. WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW...WEAKENING OF THE
INVERSION...AND THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY WITH
THE FOGGY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT GO FOR SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

WARM FRONT MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH
EARLY ON TO PREVENT MORE FOG FROM FORMING ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD, THE GFS AND NAM ARE THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS THE PARENT LOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WAY
BACK NEAR 45N/157W WITH THE LOW ACTUALLY MOVING WESTWARD IN THE LAST
FEW HOURS. WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT LOW PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. GOING WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL HAVE RAIN
AT TIMES FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH A RAIN LIKELY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH THE QPF VALUES LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE ONE SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ONE FOR SUNDAY AND WILL PRODUCE
A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO 4000-4500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR 50.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS
THIS MORNING VERSUS YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME BIG
INCONSISTENCIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON TUESDAY THE ECMWF
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD A WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WHILE THE GFS
HAS THE RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST AND HAS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER
VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON. ON WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS A WARM FRONT UP
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T EVEN HAVE THIS
FEATURE AND INSTEAD HAS A DRY FORECAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE COAST AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT BEGINNING THURSDAY THE PATTERN WILL TURN WARMER AND WETTER FOR
WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
BEGINNING THURSDAY RISING TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET ON FRIDAY. WITH
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL HAVE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL STAY WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES/ RAIN LIKELY
FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.
FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING BY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING LATER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS STARTING FRIDAY OR NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY
THURSDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT/FELTON

.CLIMATE...65 YEARS AGO THIS MORNING SEATTLE RECORDED ITS COLDEST
TEMPERATURE...0 AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONT
SUNDAY. LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. FOG IN THE LOWLANDS OTHERWISE
JUST INCREASING CIRRUS TODAY.

KSEA...FOG CONTINUES. AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HELP PUSH IT
OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW AND AREAS OF FOG. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON MAY HELP TO PUSH THE FOG AWAY. THE FOG WILL BE DONE
SUNDAY WITH STRONGER FLOW AND A FRONT...AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA MONDAY.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KOTX 311106
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
306 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another cloudy and chilly day in the Inland
Northwest. A frontal system will bring light snow to much of the
region on Sunday. Another front is expected on Monday, and it
should bring rain and mountain snow. Thursday and Friday also look
quite rainy next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Light Snow Accumulations Likely Sunday...

Today: A quick moving Clipper-type system will dive into Montana
this morning. This system influenced our weather overnight causing
the fog layer to lift a bit over north Idaho and eastern
Washington. It provided just enough mid level cooling to bump our
inversion layer up several hundred feet. The subtle lifting of the
fog/stratus layer coupled with some southerly low level upslope
flow produced light snow/flurries over the West Plains and
portions of north Idaho. As the Clipper moves southeastward this
morning, the boundary layer flow will transition from
south/southwest to a more north/northwest. This low level flow
regime generally favors precipitation over southern Shoshone
county, the Camas Prairie, and Palouse. By afternoon, the
influence of the Clipper will probably diminish as it moves toward
Wyoming. It is doubtful that the deep and widespread stratus deck
will break up much this afternoon. Last evening`s sounding from
Spokane showed the status deck to be about 2000 feet
thick...probably too formidable to be broken by today`s Clipper.

Tonight and Sunday: Our resident upper level ridge will be
flattened on Sunday by a moist frontal system. This front will be
shoved in our direction by a large upper low anchored over the
Gulf of Alaska. The center of this upper low won`t move much as it
sends this shearing frontal system our way. Without much upper
level support, the surface features with Sunday`s system aren`t
particularly impressive. What this system lacks in strong synoptic
forcing, it makes up with moisture. The subtropical origins of
this front should produce widespread light snow from the East
Slopes to northeast Washington to north Idaho. The relatively weak
wind fields actually look to limit mixing with this system which
should keep temperatures cold enough to support snow Sunday
afternoon and evening over most of the central and northern Idaho
Panhandle and most of northeast Washington. Valley locations like
Colville, Sandpoint, Spokane, Kellogg will have a good shot at an
inch or two of snow. Pavement temperatures Sunday afternoon could
be marginal for significant road accumulations. If the bulk of the
snow arrives toward evening, the chance for slick driving
conditions will be heightened. Snow intensities also play a big
role in how efficiently snow accumulates. With the "big game"
Sunday afternoon, motorists may experience winter driving
conditions to and from parties. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday night...Longwave ridge positioning over
the Pacific Northwest allows for continued warm trajectory of
approach from southwest to northeast. Initially there is a brief
break in systems early Monday but another system riding up the
same southwest to northeast tap of moisture that feed the Sunday
system spreads more precipitation, mostly in the form of rain with
fairly high snow levels, Monday and Monday evening. Monday night
the system looks to have made an exit into Northwest Montana with
the trailing moisture feed translated to the south passing over
Oregon instead of Washington. Indeed there may be what looks to be
a bit of a cold front at around that time that drops down from the
north Tuesday. It looks to impact snow levels and temperatures
mainly up near the Southern British Columbia Border Tuesday and
Wednesday but it is rather weak and doesn`t make much, if any,
dent in the lingering ridge of high pressure in the area. There is
a brief break between systems Wednesday night with the exit of the
cold front before more weather systems with warm southwest to
northeast trajectories of approach bring more wet weather, rather
high snow levels, and mild temperatures to the region.
Additionally after Tuesday with all this moisture available,
generally light surface winds, and general high pressure it
doesn`t seem unreasonable to expect any areas lacking
precipitation during the overnight hours to have fog and/or low
clouds reappear, and with them perhaps drizzle and/or flurries to
fall out of it at times as well. /Pelatti

Thursday through Friday Night: Activity level picks up once again
as a series of systems are slated to pass through the region late
in the week. While models have slight differences with precise
timing and subtle details, they agree on an increasingly warm and
wet pattern for the later part of the work week. Multiple warm
fronts supplied with a warm subtropical moisture feed will once
again bring widespread precipitation to the region. The first
round comes Thursday into Friday with the first warm frontal
passage. Thursday into Thursday Night appears to be the most
complex period as the transition of precip type for the northern
and Cascade valleys takes place. Enough cold air remains to
support snow Thursday before the warmer flow intrudes overnight.
By Thursday night warmer air overruns the colder in the far
northern valleys to promote a potential period of freezing rain.
By Friday the next surge of warm air will end the chance for mixed
precip in the valleys with snow levels rising to over 7000ft in
the south and near 6000 for much of the north. This will even
transition many mountain locations to rain by Friday and into
Friday night.

Late in the period we see mild southerly winds pick up allowing
for much better warm air advection. Temperatures rise to above
normal levels with highs reaching the upper 30s and 40s for most
by Friday while overnight lows sit above the freezing mark for the
vast majority. Overall the period looks to simply add insult to
injury as we continue to struggle in building any notable mountain
snow-pack this winter. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An expansive deck of low stratus has dug in over the
Inland Northwest below 4000 feet agl. There is a weak upper level
disturbance pushing northwest to southeast just north of the
Canadian border. This is producing some high level clouds east of
a line from CYYF to KHMS. The stratus cover is deep enough that
off and on flurries are expected across extreme eastern WA and
into the ID Panhandle through Saturday morning. High level clouds
will begin to clear the region early Saturday morning, which may
result in a slight lowering of the stratus deck. Expect mainly cig
restrictions and varying between IFR and MVFR category. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  29  34  32  37  32 /  10  10  70  40  80  50
Coeur d`Alene  34  28  34  32  38  34 /  10  10  90  60  90  60
Pullman        37  32  40  36  44  37 /  10  10  50  60  90  60
Lewiston       43  33  44  37  48  39 /  10  10  40  40  70  50
Colville       36  28  34  30  34  31 /  10  10  90  40  60  40
Sandpoint      34  26  33  30  35  32 /  20  10  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        37  27  35  33  37  34 /  20  10  90  80  90  90
Moses Lake     39  31  39  31  41  35 /   0  10  30  20  50  20
Wenatchee      38  31  39  32  40  34 /   0  30  40  20  40  20
Omak           37  31  34  30  35  31 /   0  30  60  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311106
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
306 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another cloudy and chilly day in the Inland
Northwest. A frontal system will bring light snow to much of the
region on Sunday. Another front is expected on Monday, and it
should bring rain and mountain snow. Thursday and Friday also look
quite rainy next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Light Snow Accumulations Likely Sunday...

Today: A quick moving Clipper-type system will dive into Montana
this morning. This system influenced our weather overnight causing
the fog layer to lift a bit over north Idaho and eastern
Washington. It provided just enough mid level cooling to bump our
inversion layer up several hundred feet. The subtle lifting of the
fog/stratus layer coupled with some southerly low level upslope
flow produced light snow/flurries over the West Plains and
portions of north Idaho. As the Clipper moves southeastward this
morning, the boundary layer flow will transition from
south/southwest to a more north/northwest. This low level flow
regime generally favors precipitation over southern Shoshone
county, the Camas Prairie, and Palouse. By afternoon, the
influence of the Clipper will probably diminish as it moves toward
Wyoming. It is doubtful that the deep and widespread stratus deck
will break up much this afternoon. Last evening`s sounding from
Spokane showed the status deck to be about 2000 feet
thick...probably too formidable to be broken by today`s Clipper.

Tonight and Sunday: Our resident upper level ridge will be
flattened on Sunday by a moist frontal system. This front will be
shoved in our direction by a large upper low anchored over the
Gulf of Alaska. The center of this upper low won`t move much as it
sends this shearing frontal system our way. Without much upper
level support, the surface features with Sunday`s system aren`t
particularly impressive. What this system lacks in strong synoptic
forcing, it makes up with moisture. The subtropical origins of
this front should produce widespread light snow from the East
Slopes to northeast Washington to north Idaho. The relatively weak
wind fields actually look to limit mixing with this system which
should keep temperatures cold enough to support snow Sunday
afternoon and evening over most of the central and northern Idaho
Panhandle and most of northeast Washington. Valley locations like
Colville, Sandpoint, Spokane, Kellogg will have a good shot at an
inch or two of snow. Pavement temperatures Sunday afternoon could
be marginal for significant road accumulations. If the bulk of the
snow arrives toward evening, the chance for slick driving
conditions will be heightened. Snow intensities also play a big
role in how efficiently snow accumulates. With the "big game"
Sunday afternoon, motorists may experience winter driving
conditions to and from parties. /GKoch

Monday through Wednesday night...Longwave ridge positioning over
the Pacific Northwest allows for continued warm trajectory of
approach from southwest to northeast. Initially there is a brief
break in systems early Monday but another system riding up the
same southwest to northeast tap of moisture that feed the Sunday
system spreads more precipitation, mostly in the form of rain with
fairly high snow levels, Monday and Monday evening. Monday night
the system looks to have made an exit into Northwest Montana with
the trailing moisture feed translated to the south passing over
Oregon instead of Washington. Indeed there may be what looks to be
a bit of a cold front at around that time that drops down from the
north Tuesday. It looks to impact snow levels and temperatures
mainly up near the Southern British Columbia Border Tuesday and
Wednesday but it is rather weak and doesn`t make much, if any,
dent in the lingering ridge of high pressure in the area. There is
a brief break between systems Wednesday night with the exit of the
cold front before more weather systems with warm southwest to
northeast trajectories of approach bring more wet weather, rather
high snow levels, and mild temperatures to the region.
Additionally after Tuesday with all this moisture available,
generally light surface winds, and general high pressure it
doesn`t seem unreasonable to expect any areas lacking
precipitation during the overnight hours to have fog and/or low
clouds reappear, and with them perhaps drizzle and/or flurries to
fall out of it at times as well. /Pelatti

Thursday through Friday Night: Activity level picks up once again
as a series of systems are slated to pass through the region late
in the week. While models have slight differences with precise
timing and subtle details, they agree on an increasingly warm and
wet pattern for the later part of the work week. Multiple warm
fronts supplied with a warm subtropical moisture feed will once
again bring widespread precipitation to the region. The first
round comes Thursday into Friday with the first warm frontal
passage. Thursday into Thursday Night appears to be the most
complex period as the transition of precip type for the northern
and Cascade valleys takes place. Enough cold air remains to
support snow Thursday before the warmer flow intrudes overnight.
By Thursday night warmer air overruns the colder in the far
northern valleys to promote a potential period of freezing rain.
By Friday the next surge of warm air will end the chance for mixed
precip in the valleys with snow levels rising to over 7000ft in
the south and near 6000 for much of the north. This will even
transition many mountain locations to rain by Friday and into
Friday night.

Late in the period we see mild southerly winds pick up allowing
for much better warm air advection. Temperatures rise to above
normal levels with highs reaching the upper 30s and 40s for most
by Friday while overnight lows sit above the freezing mark for the
vast majority. Overall the period looks to simply add insult to
injury as we continue to struggle in building any notable mountain
snow-pack this winter. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An expansive deck of low stratus has dug in over the
Inland Northwest below 4000 feet agl. There is a weak upper level
disturbance pushing northwest to southeast just north of the
Canadian border. This is producing some high level clouds east of
a line from CYYF to KHMS. The stratus cover is deep enough that
off and on flurries are expected across extreme eastern WA and
into the ID Panhandle through Saturday morning. High level clouds
will begin to clear the region early Saturday morning, which may
result in a slight lowering of the stratus deck. Expect mainly cig
restrictions and varying between IFR and MVFR category. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  29  34  32  37  32 /  10  10  70  40  80  50
Coeur d`Alene  34  28  34  32  38  34 /  10  10  90  60  90  60
Pullman        37  32  40  36  44  37 /  10  10  50  60  90  60
Lewiston       43  33  44  37  48  39 /  10  10  40  40  70  50
Colville       36  28  34  30  34  31 /  10  10  90  40  60  40
Sandpoint      34  26  33  30  35  32 /  20  10  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        37  27  35  33  37  34 /  20  10  90  80  90  90
Moses Lake     39  31  39  31  41  35 /   0  10  30  20  50  20
Wenatchee      38  31  39  32  40  34 /   0  30  40  20  40  20
Omak           37  31  34  30  35  31 /   0  30  60  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 311021
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS
IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO TODAY. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY AS OF 0930Z SHOWED CONSIDERABLE FOG
IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA AROUND KKLS...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS A
MEAGER -2.3 MB AT 10Z...PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 3-HR FCST OFF THE 06Z
NAM. THE NAM DOES INCREASE THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 TO -6 MB
BY 21Z. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TODAY
COMPARED TO FRI SO WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS.
NAM MAINTAINS SOLID STRATUS IN THE GORGE TO AROUND KCZK. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE SHOWS INCREASING
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SUN. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOG
FORMATION...BUT SUSPECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL
SEE THE FOG RETURN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN INLAND SUN. MODELS SEEM TO FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. MODEL QPF WITH THIS ONE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MOUNTAINS NOT GOING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5K FEET. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE
QPF...WITH A CORE OF OVER AN INCH IN 6 HRS ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST MON MORNING. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MAYBE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN 6 HRS FOR THE COAST MON MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES 18Z MON
THROUGH 00Z TUE. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS
WINTER...SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA CASCADES MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 540 DM...BUT SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE A BIT
LOWER DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHICH HAS BROUGHT CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
LIFR/VLIFR AT KEUG. KSLE IS VFR AT THE MOMENT...BUT FOG IS
PUSHING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO LIFR OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH OR
COAST...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND OCCASIONALLY BRINGING CIGS AND VIS
UP TO MVFR UNTIL THE WIND CALMS AGAIN BRINGING CIGS AND VIS BACK
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. PERSISTENT EAST WIND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL KEEP KONP VFR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS BELOW
FREEZING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING THE FOG PATCHY...AND
CLEAR AT KPDX AND KTTD...BUT FOG AGAIN IS COMING EASTWARD UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FROM KELSO AND WILL MOVE INTO KPDX SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VIS BY 12-13Z AS FOG MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE MENU FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS
WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13
FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311021
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS
IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO TODAY. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY AS OF 0930Z SHOWED CONSIDERABLE FOG
IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA AROUND KKLS...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS A
MEAGER -2.3 MB AT 10Z...PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 3-HR FCST OFF THE 06Z
NAM. THE NAM DOES INCREASE THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 TO -6 MB
BY 21Z. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TODAY
COMPARED TO FRI SO WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS.
NAM MAINTAINS SOLID STRATUS IN THE GORGE TO AROUND KCZK. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE SHOWS INCREASING
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SUN. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOG
FORMATION...BUT SUSPECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL
SEE THE FOG RETURN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN INLAND SUN. MODELS SEEM TO FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. MODEL QPF WITH THIS ONE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MOUNTAINS NOT GOING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5K FEET. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE
QPF...WITH A CORE OF OVER AN INCH IN 6 HRS ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST MON MORNING. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MAYBE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN 6 HRS FOR THE COAST MON MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES 18Z MON
THROUGH 00Z TUE. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS
WINTER...SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA CASCADES MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 540 DM...BUT SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE A BIT
LOWER DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHICH HAS BROUGHT CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
LIFR/VLIFR AT KEUG. KSLE IS VFR AT THE MOMENT...BUT FOG IS
PUSHING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO LIFR OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH OR
COAST...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND OCCASIONALLY BRINGING CIGS AND VIS
UP TO MVFR UNTIL THE WIND CALMS AGAIN BRINGING CIGS AND VIS BACK
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. PERSISTENT EAST WIND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL KEEP KONP VFR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS BELOW
FREEZING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING THE FOG PATCHY...AND
CLEAR AT KPDX AND KTTD...BUT FOG AGAIN IS COMING EASTWARD UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FROM KELSO AND WILL MOVE INTO KPDX SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VIS BY 12-13Z AS FOG MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE MENU FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS
WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13
FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311021
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS
IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO TODAY. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY AS OF 0930Z SHOWED CONSIDERABLE FOG
IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA AROUND KKLS...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS A
MEAGER -2.3 MB AT 10Z...PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 3-HR FCST OFF THE 06Z
NAM. THE NAM DOES INCREASE THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 TO -6 MB
BY 21Z. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TODAY
COMPARED TO FRI SO WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS.
NAM MAINTAINS SOLID STRATUS IN THE GORGE TO AROUND KCZK. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE SHOWS INCREASING
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SUN. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOG
FORMATION...BUT SUSPECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL
SEE THE FOG RETURN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN INLAND SUN. MODELS SEEM TO FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. MODEL QPF WITH THIS ONE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MOUNTAINS NOT GOING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5K FEET. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE
QPF...WITH A CORE OF OVER AN INCH IN 6 HRS ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST MON MORNING. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MAYBE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN 6 HRS FOR THE COAST MON MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES 18Z MON
THROUGH 00Z TUE. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS
WINTER...SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA CASCADES MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 540 DM...BUT SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE A BIT
LOWER DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHICH HAS BROUGHT CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
LIFR/VLIFR AT KEUG. KSLE IS VFR AT THE MOMENT...BUT FOG IS
PUSHING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO LIFR OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH OR
COAST...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND OCCASIONALLY BRINGING CIGS AND VIS
UP TO MVFR UNTIL THE WIND CALMS AGAIN BRINGING CIGS AND VIS BACK
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. PERSISTENT EAST WIND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL KEEP KONP VFR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS BELOW
FREEZING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING THE FOG PATCHY...AND
CLEAR AT KPDX AND KTTD...BUT FOG AGAIN IS COMING EASTWARD UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FROM KELSO AND WILL MOVE INTO KPDX SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VIS BY 12-13Z AS FOG MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE MENU FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS
WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13
FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311021
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS
IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO TODAY. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY AS OF 0930Z SHOWED CONSIDERABLE FOG
IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA AROUND KKLS...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS A
MEAGER -2.3 MB AT 10Z...PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 3-HR FCST OFF THE 06Z
NAM. THE NAM DOES INCREASE THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 TO -6 MB
BY 21Z. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TODAY
COMPARED TO FRI SO WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS.
NAM MAINTAINS SOLID STRATUS IN THE GORGE TO AROUND KCZK. NAM
CROSS-SECTION FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE SHOWS INCREASING
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SUN. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOG
FORMATION...BUT SUSPECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL
SEE THE FOG RETURN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINNING SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN INLAND SUN. MODELS SEEM TO FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. MODEL QPF WITH THIS ONE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MOUNTAINS NOT GOING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5K FEET. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE
QPF...WITH A CORE OF OVER AN INCH IN 6 HRS ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST MON MORNING. WENT MORE WITH THE ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MAYBE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN 6 HRS FOR THE COAST MON MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES 18Z MON
THROUGH 00Z TUE. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS
WINTER...SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FOR THE S WA CASCADES MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 540 DM...BUT SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE A BIT
LOWER DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WEISHAAR

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHICH HAS BROUGHT CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
LIFR/VLIFR AT KEUG. KSLE IS VFR AT THE MOMENT...BUT FOG IS
PUSHING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO LIFR OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTH OR
COAST...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND OCCASIONALLY BRINGING CIGS AND VIS
UP TO MVFR UNTIL THE WIND CALMS AGAIN BRINGING CIGS AND VIS BACK
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. PERSISTENT EAST WIND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL KEEP KONP VFR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH TEMPS IN SOME AREAS BELOW
FREEZING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING THE FOG PATCHY...AND
CLEAR AT KPDX AND KTTD...BUT FOG AGAIN IS COMING EASTWARD UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FROM KELSO AND WILL MOVE INTO KPDX SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VIS BY 12-13Z AS FOG MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE MENU FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS WHILE BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 8 FT. THE SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY. STRONG WINDS
WILL RAMP UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL WINDS EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 TO 13
FT ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES AND BRING
SEAS UP TO NEAR 20 FT. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310548
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
948 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to downplay impacts from fog tonight. I do expect
there will continue to be some patchy fog around the region,
especially between 2,000 and 4,000 feet in elevation. There will
also be some spots between these elevations that may see some
dense fog at times. However, much of the low clouds across the
valleys around the region has lifted into a low stratus deck. This
is in large part due to the shortwave trough of lower pressure
that is skirting across southern BC. This disturbance is also
producing a lot of high clouds across the central and northern
portion of the region, which is not allowing the lower levels of
the atmosphere to radiate out as well.

There has also been some very light precip falling out of the
stratus cover this evening. Much of this precip has varied from
drizzle (below 2,000 feet) to flurries between Deer Park to
Spokane. A mix of drizzle and flurries is expected to continue to
be a possibility through tonight. Road temperatures are beginning
to drop to below freezing as well, so the possibility for some
slick spots is expected through Saturday morning. Main concern
for any black ice will be on the side streets that receive less
traffic volume or may not be treated. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An expansive deck of low stratus has dug in over the
Inland Northwest below 4000 feet agl. There is a weak upper level
disturbance pushing northwest to southeast just north of the
Canadian border. This is producing some high level clouds east of
a line from CYYF to KHMS. The stratus cover is deep enough that
off and on flurries are expected across extreme eastern WA and
into the ID Panhandle through Saturday morning. High level clouds
will begin to clear the region early Saturday morning, which may
result in a slight lowering of the stratus deck. Expect mainly cig
restrictions and varying between IFR and MVFR category. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  34  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  34  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  34  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  33  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  34  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 310548
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
948 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to downplay impacts from fog tonight. I do expect
there will continue to be some patchy fog around the region,
especially between 2,000 and 4,000 feet in elevation. There will
also be some spots between these elevations that may see some
dense fog at times. However, much of the low clouds across the
valleys around the region has lifted into a low stratus deck. This
is in large part due to the shortwave trough of lower pressure
that is skirting across southern BC. This disturbance is also
producing a lot of high clouds across the central and northern
portion of the region, which is not allowing the lower levels of
the atmosphere to radiate out as well.

There has also been some very light precip falling out of the
stratus cover this evening. Much of this precip has varied from
drizzle (below 2,000 feet) to flurries between Deer Park to
Spokane. A mix of drizzle and flurries is expected to continue to
be a possibility through tonight. Road temperatures are beginning
to drop to below freezing as well, so the possibility for some
slick spots is expected through Saturday morning. Main concern
for any black ice will be on the side streets that receive less
traffic volume or may not be treated. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An expansive deck of low stratus has dug in over the
Inland Northwest below 4000 feet agl. There is a weak upper level
disturbance pushing northwest to southeast just north of the
Canadian border. This is producing some high level clouds east of
a line from CYYF to KHMS. The stratus cover is deep enough that
off and on flurries are expected across extreme eastern WA and
into the ID Panhandle through Saturday morning. High level clouds
will begin to clear the region early Saturday morning, which may
result in a slight lowering of the stratus deck. Expect mainly cig
restrictions and varying between IFR and MVFR category. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  34  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  34  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  34  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  33  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  34  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 310548
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
948 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to downplay impacts from fog tonight. I do expect
there will continue to be some patchy fog around the region,
especially between 2,000 and 4,000 feet in elevation. There will
also be some spots between these elevations that may see some
dense fog at times. However, much of the low clouds across the
valleys around the region has lifted into a low stratus deck. This
is in large part due to the shortwave trough of lower pressure
that is skirting across southern BC. This disturbance is also
producing a lot of high clouds across the central and northern
portion of the region, which is not allowing the lower levels of
the atmosphere to radiate out as well.

There has also been some very light precip falling out of the
stratus cover this evening. Much of this precip has varied from
drizzle (below 2,000 feet) to flurries between Deer Park to
Spokane. A mix of drizzle and flurries is expected to continue to
be a possibility through tonight. Road temperatures are beginning
to drop to below freezing as well, so the possibility for some
slick spots is expected through Saturday morning. Main concern
for any black ice will be on the side streets that receive less
traffic volume or may not be treated. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An expansive deck of low stratus has dug in over the
Inland Northwest below 4000 feet agl. There is a weak upper level
disturbance pushing northwest to southeast just north of the
Canadian border. This is producing some high level clouds east of
a line from CYYF to KHMS. The stratus cover is deep enough that
off and on flurries are expected across extreme eastern WA and
into the ID Panhandle through Saturday morning. High level clouds
will begin to clear the region early Saturday morning, which may
result in a slight lowering of the stratus deck. Expect mainly cig
restrictions and varying between IFR and MVFR category. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  34  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  34  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  34  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  33  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  34  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 310548
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
948 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to downplay impacts from fog tonight. I do expect
there will continue to be some patchy fog around the region,
especially between 2,000 and 4,000 feet in elevation. There will
also be some spots between these elevations that may see some
dense fog at times. However, much of the low clouds across the
valleys around the region has lifted into a low stratus deck. This
is in large part due to the shortwave trough of lower pressure
that is skirting across southern BC. This disturbance is also
producing a lot of high clouds across the central and northern
portion of the region, which is not allowing the lower levels of
the atmosphere to radiate out as well.

There has also been some very light precip falling out of the
stratus cover this evening. Much of this precip has varied from
drizzle (below 2,000 feet) to flurries between Deer Park to
Spokane. A mix of drizzle and flurries is expected to continue to
be a possibility through tonight. Road temperatures are beginning
to drop to below freezing as well, so the possibility for some
slick spots is expected through Saturday morning. Main concern
for any black ice will be on the side streets that receive less
traffic volume or may not be treated. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An expansive deck of low stratus has dug in over the
Inland Northwest below 4000 feet agl. There is a weak upper level
disturbance pushing northwest to southeast just north of the
Canadian border. This is producing some high level clouds east of
a line from CYYF to KHMS. The stratus cover is deep enough that
off and on flurries are expected across extreme eastern WA and
into the ID Panhandle through Saturday morning. High level clouds
will begin to clear the region early Saturday morning, which may
result in a slight lowering of the stratus deck. Expect mainly cig
restrictions and varying between IFR and MVFR category. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  34  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  34  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  34  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  33  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  34  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 310506
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
905 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
WILL HELP THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK
TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG 130W REBOUNDING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA EJECTS INTO ALBERTA AND MONTANA. TONIGHT...THE
REBUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWLAND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. DESPITE AFTERNOON
CLEARING...LOW LEVEL FOG DID NOT FULLY DISSIPATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH SOUND AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT LOW LEVEL FOG
TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...FILLING IN FROM THE CHEHALIS GAP AND SOUTH
INTERIOR NORTH THROUGH EVERETT AND ARLINGTON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOWING THIS REDEVELOPMENT ALREADY HAPPENING THROUGH THE
KITSAP PENINSULA INTO SOUTH WHIDBEY ISLAND AS OF 04Z.

FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY LIFT MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIKE TODAY...SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON FOG BREAKOUT TIME. EARLIER CLEARING MEANS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 50 THROUGH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
AND LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST. THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WONT REACH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS THAT PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN
SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE SECOND FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT WETTER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS THAN
SUNDAYS FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST REBUILDING NORTH ALONG 130W TUE HELPING
LINGERING SHOWERS MON NIGHT TAPER OFF TUE AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. 00Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SW...KEEPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT THE NORTH
INTERIOR. THU THROUGH FRI WILL BE MILD AND WET AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPED
INTO THE TROPICS MIDWAY BETWEEN SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THE
PASSING WAVES IMPLIES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS BETWEEN PERIODS
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...LIMITING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER RAINFALL...SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN
SOME WINDY PERIODS WITH THE PASSING WAVES. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING BY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING LATER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS STARTING FRIDAY OR NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY THURSDAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT


&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND STIR
THINGS UP WITH SOME PRECIP.

KSEA...FOG CONTINUES. AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HELP PUSH IT
OUT OF THE AREA OR DRY IT UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW AND AREAS OF FOG. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAY PUSH THE FOG AWAY...AND THEN
CERTAINLY ON SUNDAY THE FOG WILL BE DONE WITH STRONGER FLOW AND A
FRONT...AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 310506
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
905 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
WILL HELP THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK
TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG 130W REBOUNDING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA EJECTS INTO ALBERTA AND MONTANA. TONIGHT...THE
REBUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWLAND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. DESPITE AFTERNOON
CLEARING...LOW LEVEL FOG DID NOT FULLY DISSIPATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH SOUND AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT LOW LEVEL FOG
TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...FILLING IN FROM THE CHEHALIS GAP AND SOUTH
INTERIOR NORTH THROUGH EVERETT AND ARLINGTON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOWING THIS REDEVELOPMENT ALREADY HAPPENING THROUGH THE
KITSAP PENINSULA INTO SOUTH WHIDBEY ISLAND AS OF 04Z.

FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY LIFT MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIKE TODAY...SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON FOG BREAKOUT TIME. EARLIER CLEARING MEANS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 50 THROUGH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
AND LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST. THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WONT REACH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS THAT PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN
SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE SECOND FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT WETTER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS THAN
SUNDAYS FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST REBUILDING NORTH ALONG 130W TUE HELPING
LINGERING SHOWERS MON NIGHT TAPER OFF TUE AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. 00Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SW...KEEPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT THE NORTH
INTERIOR. THU THROUGH FRI WILL BE MILD AND WET AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPED
INTO THE TROPICS MIDWAY BETWEEN SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THE
PASSING WAVES IMPLIES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS BETWEEN PERIODS
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...LIMITING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER RAINFALL...SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN
SOME WINDY PERIODS WITH THE PASSING WAVES. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING BY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING LATER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS STARTING FRIDAY OR NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY THURSDAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT


&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND STIR
THINGS UP WITH SOME PRECIP.

KSEA...FOG CONTINUES. AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HELP PUSH IT
OUT OF THE AREA OR DRY IT UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW AND AREAS OF FOG. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAY PUSH THE FOG AWAY...AND THEN
CERTAINLY ON SUNDAY THE FOG WILL BE DONE WITH STRONGER FLOW AND A
FRONT...AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 310506
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
905 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
WILL HELP THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK
TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG 130W REBOUNDING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA EJECTS INTO ALBERTA AND MONTANA. TONIGHT...THE
REBUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWLAND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. DESPITE AFTERNOON
CLEARING...LOW LEVEL FOG DID NOT FULLY DISSIPATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH SOUND AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT LOW LEVEL FOG
TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...FILLING IN FROM THE CHEHALIS GAP AND SOUTH
INTERIOR NORTH THROUGH EVERETT AND ARLINGTON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOWING THIS REDEVELOPMENT ALREADY HAPPENING THROUGH THE
KITSAP PENINSULA INTO SOUTH WHIDBEY ISLAND AS OF 04Z.

FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY LIFT MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIKE TODAY...SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON FOG BREAKOUT TIME. EARLIER CLEARING MEANS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 50 THROUGH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
AND LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST. THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WONT REACH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS THAT PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN
SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE SECOND FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT WETTER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS THAN
SUNDAYS FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST REBUILDING NORTH ALONG 130W TUE HELPING
LINGERING SHOWERS MON NIGHT TAPER OFF TUE AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. 00Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SW...KEEPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT THE NORTH
INTERIOR. THU THROUGH FRI WILL BE MILD AND WET AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPED
INTO THE TROPICS MIDWAY BETWEEN SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THE
PASSING WAVES IMPLIES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS BETWEEN PERIODS
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...LIMITING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER RAINFALL...SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN
SOME WINDY PERIODS WITH THE PASSING WAVES. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING BY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING LATER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS STARTING FRIDAY OR NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY THURSDAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT


&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND STIR
THINGS UP WITH SOME PRECIP.

KSEA...FOG CONTINUES. AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HELP PUSH IT
OUT OF THE AREA OR DRY IT UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW AND AREAS OF FOG. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAY PUSH THE FOG AWAY...AND THEN
CERTAINLY ON SUNDAY THE FOG WILL BE DONE WITH STRONGER FLOW AND A
FRONT...AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 310506
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
905 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
WILL HELP THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK
TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG 130W REBOUNDING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA EJECTS INTO ALBERTA AND MONTANA. TONIGHT...THE
REBUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWLAND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. DESPITE AFTERNOON
CLEARING...LOW LEVEL FOG DID NOT FULLY DISSIPATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH SOUND AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT LOW LEVEL FOG
TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...FILLING IN FROM THE CHEHALIS GAP AND SOUTH
INTERIOR NORTH THROUGH EVERETT AND ARLINGTON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOWING THIS REDEVELOPMENT ALREADY HAPPENING THROUGH THE
KITSAP PENINSULA INTO SOUTH WHIDBEY ISLAND AS OF 04Z.

FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY LIFT MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIKE TODAY...SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON FOG BREAKOUT TIME. EARLIER CLEARING MEANS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 50 THROUGH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
AND LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST. THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WONT REACH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS THAT PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN
SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE SECOND FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT WETTER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS THAN
SUNDAYS FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST REBUILDING NORTH ALONG 130W TUE HELPING
LINGERING SHOWERS MON NIGHT TAPER OFF TUE AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. 00Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SW...KEEPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT THE NORTH
INTERIOR. THU THROUGH FRI WILL BE MILD AND WET AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPED
INTO THE TROPICS MIDWAY BETWEEN SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THE
PASSING WAVES IMPLIES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS BETWEEN PERIODS
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...LIMITING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER RAINFALL...SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN
SOME WINDY PERIODS WITH THE PASSING WAVES. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING BY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING LATER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS STARTING FRIDAY OR NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY THURSDAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT


&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND STIR
THINGS UP WITH SOME PRECIP.

KSEA...FOG CONTINUES. AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HELP PUSH IT
OUT OF THE AREA OR DRY IT UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW AND AREAS OF FOG. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAY PUSH THE FOG AWAY...AND THEN
CERTAINLY ON SUNDAY THE FOG WILL BE DONE WITH STRONGER FLOW AND A
FRONT...AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 310449
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
849 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ONLY SUBTLE FUSSING WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE START
OUT WITH SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
BELOW...EASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT
WHILE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR. HAVE NUDGED TONIGHT`S FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE TOWARD WHAT WAS
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE HAS STRENGTHENED THE INVERSIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES SO UPPED MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY. ALSO SEEING
DRIER AIR OVERALL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE. FOR EXAMPLE THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS NEAR 9000 FEET WITH A DEW POINT OF -56 AND A CORRESPONDING
RH OF 1 (ONE) PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL IN MUCH
BETTER SHAPE BUT DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
SOME SUMMERTIME LIKE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILES THROUGH
SATURDAY. BE CAREFUL TOMORROW WITH BURNING SLASH AND YARD DEBRIS IF
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS AND OUT OF THE FOG/STRATUS. FIRE MAY GET MORE
ACTIVE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
/JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF KKLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE FORECASTED FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...EXPECT TO SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE KTTD...WHICH WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST COULD ALSO BRING A MIXTURE OF LIFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO RETURN BETWEEN
07-10Z SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 19Z SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. /64

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GUSTS...THINGS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AS PLANNED. AS
SUCH...NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 6 FT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. /64

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE REGION. EACH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES LATER SUN
AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY ON MON AS NEXT FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF
SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310449
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
849 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ONLY SUBTLE FUSSING WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE START
OUT WITH SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
BELOW...EASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT
WHILE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR. HAVE NUDGED TONIGHT`S FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE TOWARD WHAT WAS
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE HAS STRENGTHENED THE INVERSIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES SO UPPED MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY. ALSO SEEING
DRIER AIR OVERALL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE. FOR EXAMPLE THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS NEAR 9000 FEET WITH A DEW POINT OF -56 AND A CORRESPONDING
RH OF 1 (ONE) PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL IN MUCH
BETTER SHAPE BUT DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
SOME SUMMERTIME LIKE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILES THROUGH
SATURDAY. BE CAREFUL TOMORROW WITH BURNING SLASH AND YARD DEBRIS IF
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS AND OUT OF THE FOG/STRATUS. FIRE MAY GET MORE
ACTIVE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
/JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF KKLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE FORECASTED FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...EXPECT TO SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE KTTD...WHICH WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST COULD ALSO BRING A MIXTURE OF LIFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO RETURN BETWEEN
07-10Z SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 19Z SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. /64

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GUSTS...THINGS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AS PLANNED. AS
SUCH...NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 6 FT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. /64

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE REGION. EACH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES LATER SUN
AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY ON MON AS NEXT FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF
SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310449
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
849 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ONLY SUBTLE FUSSING WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE START
OUT WITH SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
BELOW...EASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT
WHILE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR. HAVE NUDGED TONIGHT`S FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE TOWARD WHAT WAS
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE HAS STRENGTHENED THE INVERSIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES SO UPPED MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY. ALSO SEEING
DRIER AIR OVERALL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE. FOR EXAMPLE THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS NEAR 9000 FEET WITH A DEW POINT OF -56 AND A CORRESPONDING
RH OF 1 (ONE) PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL IN MUCH
BETTER SHAPE BUT DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
SOME SUMMERTIME LIKE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILES THROUGH
SATURDAY. BE CAREFUL TOMORROW WITH BURNING SLASH AND YARD DEBRIS IF
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS AND OUT OF THE FOG/STRATUS. FIRE MAY GET MORE
ACTIVE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
/JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF KKLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE FORECASTED FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...EXPECT TO SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE KTTD...WHICH WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST COULD ALSO BRING A MIXTURE OF LIFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO RETURN BETWEEN
07-10Z SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 19Z SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. /64

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GUSTS...THINGS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AS PLANNED. AS
SUCH...NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 6 FT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. /64

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE REGION. EACH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES LATER SUN
AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY ON MON AS NEXT FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF
SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310449
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
849 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...ONLY SUBTLE FUSSING WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE START
OUT WITH SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
BELOW...EASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT
WHILE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR. HAVE NUDGED TONIGHT`S FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE TOWARD WHAT WAS
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE HAS STRENGTHENED THE INVERSIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES SO UPPED MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY. ALSO SEEING
DRIER AIR OVERALL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE. FOR EXAMPLE THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS NEAR 9000 FEET WITH A DEW POINT OF -56 AND A CORRESPONDING
RH OF 1 (ONE) PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL IN MUCH
BETTER SHAPE BUT DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN
SOME SUMMERTIME LIKE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILES THROUGH
SATURDAY. BE CAREFUL TOMORROW WITH BURNING SLASH AND YARD DEBRIS IF
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS AND OUT OF THE FOG/STRATUS. FIRE MAY GET MORE
ACTIVE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
/JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF KKLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE FORECASTED FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...EXPECT TO SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE KTTD...WHICH WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST COULD ALSO BRING A MIXTURE OF LIFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO RETURN BETWEEN
07-10Z SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 19Z SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL. /64

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GUSTS...THINGS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AS PLANNED. AS
SUCH...NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 6 FT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. /64

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE REGION. EACH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES LATER SUN
AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY ON MON AS NEXT FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF
SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310421
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
821 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to downplay impacts from fog tonight. I do expect
there will continue to be some patchy fog around the region,
especially between 2,000 and 4,000 feet in elevation. There will
also be some spots between these elevations that may see some
dense fog at times. However, much of the low clouds across the
valleys around the region has lifted into a low stratus deck. This
is in large part due to the shortwave trough of lower pressure
that is skirting across southern BC. This disturbance is also
producing a lot of high clouds across the central and northern
portion of the region, which is not allowing the lower levels of
the atmosphere to radiate out as well.

There has also been some very light precip falling out of the
stratus cover this evening. Much of this precip has varied from
drizzle (below 2,000 feet) to flurries between Deer Park to
Spokane. A mix of drizzle and flurries is expected to continue to
be a possibility through tonight. Road temperatures are beginning
to drop to below freezing as well, so the possibility for some
slick spots is expected through Saturday morning. Main concern
for any black ice will be on the side streets that receive less
traffic volume or may not be treated. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. A weather system passing to the north will increase
boundary layer winds tonight out of the south-southwest which
should help raise the stratus deck slightly for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. However low level upslope and a deepening
stratus layer will favor an increase in -FZDZ and very light snow
or flurries which should hold CIGS to IFR or lower. The stratus
layer is expected to lift Saturday afternoon with IFR/MVFR CIGS
common. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  34  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  34  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  34  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  33  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  34  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310421
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
821 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to downplay impacts from fog tonight. I do expect
there will continue to be some patchy fog around the region,
especially between 2,000 and 4,000 feet in elevation. There will
also be some spots between these elevations that may see some
dense fog at times. However, much of the low clouds across the
valleys around the region has lifted into a low stratus deck. This
is in large part due to the shortwave trough of lower pressure
that is skirting across southern BC. This disturbance is also
producing a lot of high clouds across the central and northern
portion of the region, which is not allowing the lower levels of
the atmosphere to radiate out as well.

There has also been some very light precip falling out of the
stratus cover this evening. Much of this precip has varied from
drizzle (below 2,000 feet) to flurries between Deer Park to
Spokane. A mix of drizzle and flurries is expected to continue to
be a possibility through tonight. Road temperatures are beginning
to drop to below freezing as well, so the possibility for some
slick spots is expected through Saturday morning. Main concern
for any black ice will be on the side streets that receive less
traffic volume or may not be treated. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. A weather system passing to the north will increase
boundary layer winds tonight out of the south-southwest which
should help raise the stratus deck slightly for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. However low level upslope and a deepening
stratus layer will favor an increase in -FZDZ and very light snow
or flurries which should hold CIGS to IFR or lower. The stratus
layer is expected to lift Saturday afternoon with IFR/MVFR CIGS
common. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  34  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  34  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  34  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  33  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  34  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 302343
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
342 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
WILL GIVE AREAS OF FOG TO TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS DURING THE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
MIDWEEK. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING WET AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 130W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
REBOUNDING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA TO
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES OFF THE THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE REBOUNDING RIDGE ALOFT AND ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS
WILL BE PERFECT FOR FOG FORMATION. SOME OF THE FOG TODAY NEVER
REALLY DISSIPATED IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND AND IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS EXTENSIVE FOG BY MORNING
FROM ABOUT ARLINGTON AND EVERETT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
INTERIOR AND WEST THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP. THE FOG REALLY STARTS
SETTING UP BY 02Z IN THE HRRR...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE. THE HRRR IS PROBABLY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
FORMATION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THOUGH AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATE THERE AS WELL. THE FOG IN THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE
AND EXPANSIVE THAN THE GFS/NAM AND A BIT LESS THAN THE HRRR.

FOG WILL LIKELY LIFT MIDDAY SATURDAY AND LEFT OVER STRATUS BREAK
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE INTERIOR
WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON FOG BREAKOUT TIME. WILL USE A
MODEL MEAN WHICH GIVES ABOUT 50 IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND LOWER
TO MID 50S ON THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE 18Z NAM12 AND THE 18Z GFS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MEANS THAT SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN LATE AT NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. A MODEL
BLEND OF THE QPF IS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AREA... AND THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT
THE FLOW ALOFT IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE POPS WERE UPDATED TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUNDAYS FRONT AND MOVES INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY. THIS ONE WILL BE A BIT WETTER AND WINDIER THAN SUNDAYS
FRONT...BUT STILL NOTHING EVEN TYPICAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL
FORM AROUND 135W ON TUE. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWERS IN ONSHORE FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ZONES MON NIGHT INTO TUE WILL BE SLOW TO COME TO AN END
TUE NIGHT. WED MAY BE A DRY DAY WITH A PASSING UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE SW. A CHANCE OF RAIN WAS MAINTAINED FOR WED...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR WHERE DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR NOW.

THU THROUGH FRI WILL BE MILD AND WET AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES PASS BY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPED INTO THE
TROPICS MIDWAY BETWEEN SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THE PASSING
WAVES MAY MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS BETWEEN PERIODS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...LIMITING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME WINDY PERIODS WITH THE
PASSING WAVES. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING BY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING LATER THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS STARTING FRIDAY OR NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY THURSDAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT


&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE NWLY. WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST.
MEANWHILE...ANTICIPATE FOG WITH VSBYS BLO 1SM AND CIGS BLO 500 FT TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THRU SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLIER AND BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL TAKE
LONGER TO LIFT ON SATURDAY.

KSEA...LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL RETURN BY 0600 UTC. THE FOG
SHOULD PARTIALLY LIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES OF 1 NM TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WATERS SUCH AS THE PUGET SOUND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG TO PARTIALLY LIFT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH
PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. EXPECT A WEAK COLD
OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A STRONGER ONE ON MON.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 302329
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
328 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday...Fog and stratus will continue to plague
the valleys of the Inland Northwest into Saturday. There will be
one suttle difference however compared to today. A mid level wave
seen on satellite over central British Columbia this afternoon
will slide southeast into southern Alberta tonight and then into
Montana on Saturday. As it does so boundary layer winds will
increase to 5-10 kts out of the south-southwest. This will provide
an upslope flow into the rising terrain of Northeast Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle with the Canadian, NAM, and ECMWF hinting
showing a small area of light qpf mainly from Colville to Spokane
east into the Idaho Panhandle overnight tonight into Saturday
morning. Soundings indicate a good chance of at least snow
flurries...but may also see pockets of drizzle or light freezing
drizzle. The increased wind in the boundary layer should favor
more stratus tonight compared to fog...although locally dense fog
will remain possible especially this evening on the west plains
from Davenport to Airway Heights. As this system pulls away from
the area into the afternoon winds will be light...with stratus
likely persisting into the afternoon. JW

...A pair of wet winter storms are expected Sunday and again
   late Monday...

Saturday night through Monday night...While the models are still
showing some timing differences with individual weather
features...it`s clear that the pattern will change and become
wetter through this period. Guidance has slowed the onset of the
precipitation on Sunday...but are also showing higher amounts of
precipitation. Valley rain and mountain snow can be expected
Sunday through Monday night.


*Precipitation: Confidence is high that all locations will see
 measurable precipitation...with amounts ranging from .10-.20 in
 the deep basin to .50 to right around 1.0 for the mountains. The
 areas with the best orographic flow will be the big
 winners...such as the crest of the Cascades and the Panhandle
 mountains. The moisture will come in two waves. Precipitation
 will begin along the Cascades early Sunday morning then push
 across the forecast area through the day. A weak cold front will
 follow Sunday afternoon for a drying trend from the west. Of
 course up-sloping flow into the Panhandle mountains will result
 in continued higher pops up there. The second warm front will be
 similar dynamically and begin late Monday morning...with the cold
 front following Tuesday evening. So there will not be much of a
 break in between. For the northern any eastern mountains there
 may not be any break.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels Sunday morning will begin around
 3k feet across the south and the valley floors north of line
 roughly along I-90, then rise through the day. At this time it
 looks like measurable snow will be likely north of Highway 2
 including The Spokane- Coeur D`Alene corridor. Snow amounts
 between Highway 2 and the Columbia river may be around an inch
 for the Waterville Plateau...the northern Basin and for the
 Spokane-Coeur d`Alene areas. The northern mountain valleys may
 see 1-2 inches and locally up to 3 inches and the mountains 3-5
 and locally more for the higher elevations. People traveling
 after the Super Bowl Sunday evening will want to be aware of
 changing road conditions.

For the Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning event snow levels will
continue to rise. Locations below 3-3.5K feet should see mostly
rain...if not a little snow/rain mix to start out, with little to
no accumulation. The mountains should get 3-6 inches and locally
higher above 5k feet. No highlights are expected at this time, but
we will hit this in our discussions and social media.

*Temperatures will range from lower 30s across the north to mid
 40s across the south. This will be at or slightly above normal
 across the south and at or below normal across the north.
 Temperatures will then rise 3-4 degrees on Monday and be on the
 warm side of normal. Tobin

Tuesday through Friday: The moist westerly flow buckles on
Tuesday as a shortwave trough drops down from northern BC and
carves a trough across the Inland NW, while a ridge of high
pressure rebounds in the northern Pacific. This pattern will push
a surface cold front in from the north across the region on
Tuesday. Anticipate a band of precipitation with this boundary,
but there looks to be plenty of drier and colder air on the back
side of the front that will help clear out the cloud cover and
generate some clearing. The threat of showers will linger over the
Blue mountains and the southern ID panhandle into Tuesday evening
under favorable orographic lift. The period of Tuesday through
Wednesday tends to be the drier period of the week yet high
pressure may bring some patchy fog to the valleys. The models
start to diverge by Wednesday with the ECMWF showing a secondary
shortwave trough flattening the ridge and rolling into the region
with a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. The GFS keeps a
stronger ridge in place off the coast with continued orographic
showers for southeast Washington and the southern ID panhandle. At
this time, will compromise between the solutions with pops across
extreme eastern Washignton and a better chance of north Idaho.
This will give a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. This
slightly unsettled trend will continue into Wednesday night. As
temperatures cool overnight, may see a small chance of mixed
precipitation in the valleys while the mountains stand the best
chance of snow. Then by Thursday and Friday, a warmer and wetter
pattern is anticipated to move across the Inland Northwest. The
next storm system will arrive from the central Pacific with a good
tap of moisture. The models agree on this storm system to flatten
out the ridge and bring a series of warm fronts into the region.
This will bring a better chance of valley rain and mountain snow.
Snow levels will be on the rise, but sheltered northern valleys
may be slow to warm up and could experience a chance of freezing
rain Thursday night across the northern valleys before the warm
air finally penetrates across the north. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. A weather system passing to the north will increase
boundary layer winds tonight out of the south-southwest which
should help raise the stratus deck slightly for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. However low level upslope and a deepening
stratus layer will favor an increase in -FZDZ and very light snow
or flurries which should hold CIGS to IFR or lower. The stratus
layer is expected to lift Saturday afternoon with IFR/MVFR CIGS
common. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  36  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  35  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  35  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  34  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  37  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 302329
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
328 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday...Fog and stratus will continue to plague
the valleys of the Inland Northwest into Saturday. There will be
one suttle difference however compared to today. A mid level wave
seen on satellite over central British Columbia this afternoon
will slide southeast into southern Alberta tonight and then into
Montana on Saturday. As it does so boundary layer winds will
increase to 5-10 kts out of the south-southwest. This will provide
an upslope flow into the rising terrain of Northeast Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle with the Canadian, NAM, and ECMWF hinting
showing a small area of light qpf mainly from Colville to Spokane
east into the Idaho Panhandle overnight tonight into Saturday
morning. Soundings indicate a good chance of at least snow
flurries...but may also see pockets of drizzle or light freezing
drizzle. The increased wind in the boundary layer should favor
more stratus tonight compared to fog...although locally dense fog
will remain possible especially this evening on the west plains
from Davenport to Airway Heights. As this system pulls away from
the area into the afternoon winds will be light...with stratus
likely persisting into the afternoon. JW

...A pair of wet winter storms are expected Sunday and again
   late Monday...

Saturday night through Monday night...While the models are still
showing some timing differences with individual weather
features...it`s clear that the pattern will change and become
wetter through this period. Guidance has slowed the onset of the
precipitation on Sunday...but are also showing higher amounts of
precipitation. Valley rain and mountain snow can be expected
Sunday through Monday night.


*Precipitation: Confidence is high that all locations will see
 measurable precipitation...with amounts ranging from .10-.20 in
 the deep basin to .50 to right around 1.0 for the mountains. The
 areas with the best orographic flow will be the big
 winners...such as the crest of the Cascades and the Panhandle
 mountains. The moisture will come in two waves. Precipitation
 will begin along the Cascades early Sunday morning then push
 across the forecast area through the day. A weak cold front will
 follow Sunday afternoon for a drying trend from the west. Of
 course up-sloping flow into the Panhandle mountains will result
 in continued higher pops up there. The second warm front will be
 similar dynamically and begin late Monday morning...with the cold
 front following Tuesday evening. So there will not be much of a
 break in between. For the northern any eastern mountains there
 may not be any break.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels Sunday morning will begin around
 3k feet across the south and the valley floors north of line
 roughly along I-90, then rise through the day. At this time it
 looks like measurable snow will be likely north of Highway 2
 including The Spokane- Coeur D`Alene corridor. Snow amounts
 between Highway 2 and the Columbia river may be around an inch
 for the Waterville Plateau...the northern Basin and for the
 Spokane-Coeur d`Alene areas. The northern mountain valleys may
 see 1-2 inches and locally up to 3 inches and the mountains 3-5
 and locally more for the higher elevations. People traveling
 after the Super Bowl Sunday evening will want to be aware of
 changing road conditions.

For the Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning event snow levels will
continue to rise. Locations below 3-3.5K feet should see mostly
rain...if not a little snow/rain mix to start out, with little to
no accumulation. The mountains should get 3-6 inches and locally
higher above 5k feet. No highlights are expected at this time, but
we will hit this in our discussions and social media.

*Temperatures will range from lower 30s across the north to mid
 40s across the south. This will be at or slightly above normal
 across the south and at or below normal across the north.
 Temperatures will then rise 3-4 degrees on Monday and be on the
 warm side of normal. Tobin

Tuesday through Friday: The moist westerly flow buckles on
Tuesday as a shortwave trough drops down from northern BC and
carves a trough across the Inland NW, while a ridge of high
pressure rebounds in the northern Pacific. This pattern will push
a surface cold front in from the north across the region on
Tuesday. Anticipate a band of precipitation with this boundary,
but there looks to be plenty of drier and colder air on the back
side of the front that will help clear out the cloud cover and
generate some clearing. The threat of showers will linger over the
Blue mountains and the southern ID panhandle into Tuesday evening
under favorable orographic lift. The period of Tuesday through
Wednesday tends to be the drier period of the week yet high
pressure may bring some patchy fog to the valleys. The models
start to diverge by Wednesday with the ECMWF showing a secondary
shortwave trough flattening the ridge and rolling into the region
with a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. The GFS keeps a
stronger ridge in place off the coast with continued orographic
showers for southeast Washington and the southern ID panhandle. At
this time, will compromise between the solutions with pops across
extreme eastern Washignton and a better chance of north Idaho.
This will give a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. This
slightly unsettled trend will continue into Wednesday night. As
temperatures cool overnight, may see a small chance of mixed
precipitation in the valleys while the mountains stand the best
chance of snow. Then by Thursday and Friday, a warmer and wetter
pattern is anticipated to move across the Inland Northwest. The
next storm system will arrive from the central Pacific with a good
tap of moisture. The models agree on this storm system to flatten
out the ridge and bring a series of warm fronts into the region.
This will bring a better chance of valley rain and mountain snow.
Snow levels will be on the rise, but sheltered northern valleys
may be slow to warm up and could experience a chance of freezing
rain Thursday night across the northern valleys before the warm
air finally penetrates across the north. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. A weather system passing to the north will increase
boundary layer winds tonight out of the south-southwest which
should help raise the stratus deck slightly for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. However low level upslope and a deepening
stratus layer will favor an increase in -FZDZ and very light snow
or flurries which should hold CIGS to IFR or lower. The stratus
layer is expected to lift Saturday afternoon with IFR/MVFR CIGS
common. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  36  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  35  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  35  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  34  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  37  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 302329
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
328 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday...Fog and stratus will continue to plague
the valleys of the Inland Northwest into Saturday. There will be
one suttle difference however compared to today. A mid level wave
seen on satellite over central British Columbia this afternoon
will slide southeast into southern Alberta tonight and then into
Montana on Saturday. As it does so boundary layer winds will
increase to 5-10 kts out of the south-southwest. This will provide
an upslope flow into the rising terrain of Northeast Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle with the Canadian, NAM, and ECMWF hinting
showing a small area of light qpf mainly from Colville to Spokane
east into the Idaho Panhandle overnight tonight into Saturday
morning. Soundings indicate a good chance of at least snow
flurries...but may also see pockets of drizzle or light freezing
drizzle. The increased wind in the boundary layer should favor
more stratus tonight compared to fog...although locally dense fog
will remain possible especially this evening on the west plains
from Davenport to Airway Heights. As this system pulls away from
the area into the afternoon winds will be light...with stratus
likely persisting into the afternoon. JW

...A pair of wet winter storms are expected Sunday and again
   late Monday...

Saturday night through Monday night...While the models are still
showing some timing differences with individual weather
features...it`s clear that the pattern will change and become
wetter through this period. Guidance has slowed the onset of the
precipitation on Sunday...but are also showing higher amounts of
precipitation. Valley rain and mountain snow can be expected
Sunday through Monday night.


*Precipitation: Confidence is high that all locations will see
 measurable precipitation...with amounts ranging from .10-.20 in
 the deep basin to .50 to right around 1.0 for the mountains. The
 areas with the best orographic flow will be the big
 winners...such as the crest of the Cascades and the Panhandle
 mountains. The moisture will come in two waves. Precipitation
 will begin along the Cascades early Sunday morning then push
 across the forecast area through the day. A weak cold front will
 follow Sunday afternoon for a drying trend from the west. Of
 course up-sloping flow into the Panhandle mountains will result
 in continued higher pops up there. The second warm front will be
 similar dynamically and begin late Monday morning...with the cold
 front following Tuesday evening. So there will not be much of a
 break in between. For the northern any eastern mountains there
 may not be any break.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels Sunday morning will begin around
 3k feet across the south and the valley floors north of line
 roughly along I-90, then rise through the day. At this time it
 looks like measurable snow will be likely north of Highway 2
 including The Spokane- Coeur D`Alene corridor. Snow amounts
 between Highway 2 and the Columbia river may be around an inch
 for the Waterville Plateau...the northern Basin and for the
 Spokane-Coeur d`Alene areas. The northern mountain valleys may
 see 1-2 inches and locally up to 3 inches and the mountains 3-5
 and locally more for the higher elevations. People traveling
 after the Super Bowl Sunday evening will want to be aware of
 changing road conditions.

For the Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning event snow levels will
continue to rise. Locations below 3-3.5K feet should see mostly
rain...if not a little snow/rain mix to start out, with little to
no accumulation. The mountains should get 3-6 inches and locally
higher above 5k feet. No highlights are expected at this time, but
we will hit this in our discussions and social media.

*Temperatures will range from lower 30s across the north to mid
 40s across the south. This will be at or slightly above normal
 across the south and at or below normal across the north.
 Temperatures will then rise 3-4 degrees on Monday and be on the
 warm side of normal. Tobin

Tuesday through Friday: The moist westerly flow buckles on
Tuesday as a shortwave trough drops down from northern BC and
carves a trough across the Inland NW, while a ridge of high
pressure rebounds in the northern Pacific. This pattern will push
a surface cold front in from the north across the region on
Tuesday. Anticipate a band of precipitation with this boundary,
but there looks to be plenty of drier and colder air on the back
side of the front that will help clear out the cloud cover and
generate some clearing. The threat of showers will linger over the
Blue mountains and the southern ID panhandle into Tuesday evening
under favorable orographic lift. The period of Tuesday through
Wednesday tends to be the drier period of the week yet high
pressure may bring some patchy fog to the valleys. The models
start to diverge by Wednesday with the ECMWF showing a secondary
shortwave trough flattening the ridge and rolling into the region
with a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. The GFS keeps a
stronger ridge in place off the coast with continued orographic
showers for southeast Washington and the southern ID panhandle. At
this time, will compromise between the solutions with pops across
extreme eastern Washignton and a better chance of north Idaho.
This will give a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. This
slightly unsettled trend will continue into Wednesday night. As
temperatures cool overnight, may see a small chance of mixed
precipitation in the valleys while the mountains stand the best
chance of snow. Then by Thursday and Friday, a warmer and wetter
pattern is anticipated to move across the Inland Northwest. The
next storm system will arrive from the central Pacific with a good
tap of moisture. The models agree on this storm system to flatten
out the ridge and bring a series of warm fronts into the region.
This will bring a better chance of valley rain and mountain snow.
Snow levels will be on the rise, but sheltered northern valleys
may be slow to warm up and could experience a chance of freezing
rain Thursday night across the northern valleys before the warm
air finally penetrates across the north. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. A weather system passing to the north will increase
boundary layer winds tonight out of the south-southwest which
should help raise the stratus deck slightly for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. However low level upslope and a deepening
stratus layer will favor an increase in -FZDZ and very light snow
or flurries which should hold CIGS to IFR or lower. The stratus
layer is expected to lift Saturday afternoon with IFR/MVFR CIGS
common. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  36  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  35  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  35  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  34  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  37  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 302329
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
328 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday...Fog and stratus will continue to plague
the valleys of the Inland Northwest into Saturday. There will be
one suttle difference however compared to today. A mid level wave
seen on satellite over central British Columbia this afternoon
will slide southeast into southern Alberta tonight and then into
Montana on Saturday. As it does so boundary layer winds will
increase to 5-10 kts out of the south-southwest. This will provide
an upslope flow into the rising terrain of Northeast Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle with the Canadian, NAM, and ECMWF hinting
showing a small area of light qpf mainly from Colville to Spokane
east into the Idaho Panhandle overnight tonight into Saturday
morning. Soundings indicate a good chance of at least snow
flurries...but may also see pockets of drizzle or light freezing
drizzle. The increased wind in the boundary layer should favor
more stratus tonight compared to fog...although locally dense fog
will remain possible especially this evening on the west plains
from Davenport to Airway Heights. As this system pulls away from
the area into the afternoon winds will be light...with stratus
likely persisting into the afternoon. JW

...A pair of wet winter storms are expected Sunday and again
   late Monday...

Saturday night through Monday night...While the models are still
showing some timing differences with individual weather
features...it`s clear that the pattern will change and become
wetter through this period. Guidance has slowed the onset of the
precipitation on Sunday...but are also showing higher amounts of
precipitation. Valley rain and mountain snow can be expected
Sunday through Monday night.


*Precipitation: Confidence is high that all locations will see
 measurable precipitation...with amounts ranging from .10-.20 in
 the deep basin to .50 to right around 1.0 for the mountains. The
 areas with the best orographic flow will be the big
 winners...such as the crest of the Cascades and the Panhandle
 mountains. The moisture will come in two waves. Precipitation
 will begin along the Cascades early Sunday morning then push
 across the forecast area through the day. A weak cold front will
 follow Sunday afternoon for a drying trend from the west. Of
 course up-sloping flow into the Panhandle mountains will result
 in continued higher pops up there. The second warm front will be
 similar dynamically and begin late Monday morning...with the cold
 front following Tuesday evening. So there will not be much of a
 break in between. For the northern any eastern mountains there
 may not be any break.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels Sunday morning will begin around
 3k feet across the south and the valley floors north of line
 roughly along I-90, then rise through the day. At this time it
 looks like measurable snow will be likely north of Highway 2
 including The Spokane- Coeur D`Alene corridor. Snow amounts
 between Highway 2 and the Columbia river may be around an inch
 for the Waterville Plateau...the northern Basin and for the
 Spokane-Coeur d`Alene areas. The northern mountain valleys may
 see 1-2 inches and locally up to 3 inches and the mountains 3-5
 and locally more for the higher elevations. People traveling
 after the Super Bowl Sunday evening will want to be aware of
 changing road conditions.

For the Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning event snow levels will
continue to rise. Locations below 3-3.5K feet should see mostly
rain...if not a little snow/rain mix to start out, with little to
no accumulation. The mountains should get 3-6 inches and locally
higher above 5k feet. No highlights are expected at this time, but
we will hit this in our discussions and social media.

*Temperatures will range from lower 30s across the north to mid
 40s across the south. This will be at or slightly above normal
 across the south and at or below normal across the north.
 Temperatures will then rise 3-4 degrees on Monday and be on the
 warm side of normal. Tobin

Tuesday through Friday: The moist westerly flow buckles on
Tuesday as a shortwave trough drops down from northern BC and
carves a trough across the Inland NW, while a ridge of high
pressure rebounds in the northern Pacific. This pattern will push
a surface cold front in from the north across the region on
Tuesday. Anticipate a band of precipitation with this boundary,
but there looks to be plenty of drier and colder air on the back
side of the front that will help clear out the cloud cover and
generate some clearing. The threat of showers will linger over the
Blue mountains and the southern ID panhandle into Tuesday evening
under favorable orographic lift. The period of Tuesday through
Wednesday tends to be the drier period of the week yet high
pressure may bring some patchy fog to the valleys. The models
start to diverge by Wednesday with the ECMWF showing a secondary
shortwave trough flattening the ridge and rolling into the region
with a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. The GFS keeps a
stronger ridge in place off the coast with continued orographic
showers for southeast Washington and the southern ID panhandle. At
this time, will compromise between the solutions with pops across
extreme eastern Washignton and a better chance of north Idaho.
This will give a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. This
slightly unsettled trend will continue into Wednesday night. As
temperatures cool overnight, may see a small chance of mixed
precipitation in the valleys while the mountains stand the best
chance of snow. Then by Thursday and Friday, a warmer and wetter
pattern is anticipated to move across the Inland Northwest. The
next storm system will arrive from the central Pacific with a good
tap of moisture. The models agree on this storm system to flatten
out the ridge and bring a series of warm fronts into the region.
This will bring a better chance of valley rain and mountain snow.
Snow levels will be on the rise, but sheltered northern valleys
may be slow to warm up and could experience a chance of freezing
rain Thursday night across the northern valleys before the warm
air finally penetrates across the north. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. A weather system passing to the north will increase
boundary layer winds tonight out of the south-southwest which
should help raise the stratus deck slightly for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. However low level upslope and a deepening
stratus layer will favor an increase in -FZDZ and very light snow
or flurries which should hold CIGS to IFR or lower. The stratus
layer is expected to lift Saturday afternoon with IFR/MVFR CIGS
common. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  36  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  35  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  35  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  34  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  37  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 302240
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
240 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday...Fog and stratus will continue to plague
the valleys of the Inland Northwest into Saturday. There will be
one suttle difference however compared to today. A mid level wave
seen on satellite over central British Columbia this afternoon
will slide southeast into southern Alberta tonight and then into
Montana on Saturday. As it does so boundary layer winds will
increase to 5-10 kts out of the south-southwest. This will provide
an upslope flow into the rising terrain of Northeast Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle with the Canadian, NAM, and ECMWF hinting
showing a small area of light qpf mainly from Colville to Spokane
east into the Idaho Panhandle overnight tonight into Saturday
morning. Soundings indicate a good chance of at least snow
flurries...but may also see pockets of drizzle or light freezing
drizzle. The increased wind in the boundary layer should favor
more stratus tonight compared to fog...although locally dense fog
will remain possible especially this evening on the west plains
from Davenport to Airway Heights. As this system pulls away from
the area into the afternoon winds will be light...with stratus
likely persisting into the afternoon. JW

...A pair of wet winter storms are expected Sunday and again
   late Monday...

Saturday night through Monday night...While the models are still
showing some timing differences with individual weather
features...it`s clear that the pattern will change and become
wetter through this period. Guidance has slowed the onset of the
precipitation on Sunday...but are also showing higher amounts of
precipitation. Valley rain and mountain snow can be expected
Sunday through Monday night.


*Precipitation: Confidence is high that all locations will see
 measurable precipitation...with amounts ranging from .10-.20 in
 the deep basin to .50 to right around 1.0 for the mountains. The
 areas with the best orographic flow will be the big
 winners...such as the crest of the Cascades and the Panhandle
 mountains. The moisture will come in two waves. Precipitation
 will begin along the Cascades early Sunday morning then push
 across the forecast area through the day. A weak cold front will
 follow Sunday afternoon for a drying trend from the west. Of
 course up-sloping flow into the Panhandle mountains will result
 in continued higher pops up there. The second warm front will be
 similar dynamically and begin late Monday morning...with the cold
 front following Tuesday evening. So there will not be much of a
 break in between. For the northern any eastern mountains there
 may not be any break.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels Sunday morning will begin around
 3k feet across the south and the valley floors north of line
 roughly along I-90, then rise through the day. At this time it
 looks like measurable snow will be likely north of Highway 2
 including The Spokane- Coeur D`Alene corridor. Snow amounts
 between Highway 2 and the Columbia river may be around an inch
 for the Waterville Plateau...the northern Basin and for the
 Spokane-Coeur d`Alene areas. The northern mountain valleys may
 see 1-2 inches and locally up to 3 inches and the mountains 3-5
 and locally more for the higher elevations. People traveling
 after the Super Bowl Sunday evening will want to be aware of
 changing road conditions.

For the Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning event snow levels will
continue to rise. Locations below 3-3.5K feet should see mostly
rain...if not a little snow/rain mix to start out, with little to
no accumulation. The mountains should get 3-6 inches and locally
higher above 5k feet. No highlights are expected at this time, but
we will hit this in our discussions and social media.

*Temperatures will range from lower 30s across the north to mid
 40s across the south. This will be at or slightly above normal
 across the south and at or below normal across the north.
 Temperatures will then rise 3-4 degrees on Monday and be on the
 warm side of normal. Tobin

Tuesday through Friday: The moist westerly flow buckles on
Tuesday as a shortwave trough drops down from northern BC and
carves a trough across the Inland NW, while a ridge of high
pressure rebounds in the northern Pacific. This pattern will push
a surface cold front in from the north across the region on
Tuesday. Anticipate a band of precipitation with this boundary,
but there looks to be plenty of drier and colder air on the back
side of the front that will help clear out the cloud cover and
generate some clearing. The threat of showers will linger over the
Blue mountains and the southern ID panhandle into Tuesday evening
under favorable orographic lift. The period of Tuesday through
Wednesday tends to be the drier period of the week yet high
pressure may bring some patchy fog to the valleys. The models
start to diverge by Wednesday with the ECMWF showing a secondary
shortwave trough flattening the ridge and rolling into the region
with a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. The GFS keeps a
stronger ridge in place off the coast with continued orographic
showers for southeast Washington and the southern ID panhandle. At
this time, will compromise between the solutions with pops across
extreme eastern Washignton and a better chance of north Idaho.
This will give a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. This
slightly unsettled trend will continue into Wednesday night. As
temperatures cool overnight, may see a small chance of mixed
precipitation in the valleys while the mountains stand the best
chance of snow. Then by Thursday and Friday, a warmer and wetter
pattern is anticipated to move across the Inland Northwest. The
next storm system will arrive from the central Pacific with a good
tap of moisture. The models agree on this storm system to flatten
out the ridge and bring a series of warm fronts into the region.
This will bring a better chance of valley rain and mountain snow.
Snow levels will be on the rise, but sheltered northern valleys
may be slow to warm up and could experience a chance of freezing
rain Thursday night across the northern valleys before the warm
air finally penetrates across the north. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW while
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. Some light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries is
possible late in the evening through Saturday morning for the
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites as a weak shortwave passes to our north. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  36  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  35  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  35  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  34  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  37  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 302240
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
240 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
in a good chance for rain and snow through much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday...Fog and stratus will continue to plague
the valleys of the Inland Northwest into Saturday. There will be
one suttle difference however compared to today. A mid level wave
seen on satellite over central British Columbia this afternoon
will slide southeast into southern Alberta tonight and then into
Montana on Saturday. As it does so boundary layer winds will
increase to 5-10 kts out of the south-southwest. This will provide
an upslope flow into the rising terrain of Northeast Washington
into the Idaho Panhandle with the Canadian, NAM, and ECMWF hinting
showing a small area of light qpf mainly from Colville to Spokane
east into the Idaho Panhandle overnight tonight into Saturday
morning. Soundings indicate a good chance of at least snow
flurries...but may also see pockets of drizzle or light freezing
drizzle. The increased wind in the boundary layer should favor
more stratus tonight compared to fog...although locally dense fog
will remain possible especially this evening on the west plains
from Davenport to Airway Heights. As this system pulls away from
the area into the afternoon winds will be light...with stratus
likely persisting into the afternoon. JW

...A pair of wet winter storms are expected Sunday and again
   late Monday...

Saturday night through Monday night...While the models are still
showing some timing differences with individual weather
features...it`s clear that the pattern will change and become
wetter through this period. Guidance has slowed the onset of the
precipitation on Sunday...but are also showing higher amounts of
precipitation. Valley rain and mountain snow can be expected
Sunday through Monday night.


*Precipitation: Confidence is high that all locations will see
 measurable precipitation...with amounts ranging from .10-.20 in
 the deep basin to .50 to right around 1.0 for the mountains. The
 areas with the best orographic flow will be the big
 winners...such as the crest of the Cascades and the Panhandle
 mountains. The moisture will come in two waves. Precipitation
 will begin along the Cascades early Sunday morning then push
 across the forecast area through the day. A weak cold front will
 follow Sunday afternoon for a drying trend from the west. Of
 course up-sloping flow into the Panhandle mountains will result
 in continued higher pops up there. The second warm front will be
 similar dynamically and begin late Monday morning...with the cold
 front following Tuesday evening. So there will not be much of a
 break in between. For the northern any eastern mountains there
 may not be any break.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels Sunday morning will begin around
 3k feet across the south and the valley floors north of line
 roughly along I-90, then rise through the day. At this time it
 looks like measurable snow will be likely north of Highway 2
 including The Spokane- Coeur D`Alene corridor. Snow amounts
 between Highway 2 and the Columbia river may be around an inch
 for the Waterville Plateau...the northern Basin and for the
 Spokane-Coeur d`Alene areas. The northern mountain valleys may
 see 1-2 inches and locally up to 3 inches and the mountains 3-5
 and locally more for the higher elevations. People traveling
 after the Super Bowl Sunday evening will want to be aware of
 changing road conditions.

For the Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning event snow levels will
continue to rise. Locations below 3-3.5K feet should see mostly
rain...if not a little snow/rain mix to start out, with little to
no accumulation. The mountains should get 3-6 inches and locally
higher above 5k feet. No highlights are expected at this time, but
we will hit this in our discussions and social media.

*Temperatures will range from lower 30s across the north to mid
 40s across the south. This will be at or slightly above normal
 across the south and at or below normal across the north.
 Temperatures will then rise 3-4 degrees on Monday and be on the
 warm side of normal. Tobin

Tuesday through Friday: The moist westerly flow buckles on
Tuesday as a shortwave trough drops down from northern BC and
carves a trough across the Inland NW, while a ridge of high
pressure rebounds in the northern Pacific. This pattern will push
a surface cold front in from the north across the region on
Tuesday. Anticipate a band of precipitation with this boundary,
but there looks to be plenty of drier and colder air on the back
side of the front that will help clear out the cloud cover and
generate some clearing. The threat of showers will linger over the
Blue mountains and the southern ID panhandle into Tuesday evening
under favorable orographic lift. The period of Tuesday through
Wednesday tends to be the drier period of the week yet high
pressure may bring some patchy fog to the valleys. The models
start to diverge by Wednesday with the ECMWF showing a secondary
shortwave trough flattening the ridge and rolling into the region
with a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. The GFS keeps a
stronger ridge in place off the coast with continued orographic
showers for southeast Washington and the southern ID panhandle. At
this time, will compromise between the solutions with pops across
extreme eastern Washignton and a better chance of north Idaho.
This will give a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. This
slightly unsettled trend will continue into Wednesday night. As
temperatures cool overnight, may see a small chance of mixed
precipitation in the valleys while the mountains stand the best
chance of snow. Then by Thursday and Friday, a warmer and wetter
pattern is anticipated to move across the Inland Northwest. The
next storm system will arrive from the central Pacific with a good
tap of moisture. The models agree on this storm system to flatten
out the ridge and bring a series of warm fronts into the region.
This will bring a better chance of valley rain and mountain snow.
Snow levels will be on the rise, but sheltered northern valleys
may be slow to warm up and could experience a chance of freezing
rain Thursday night across the northern valleys before the warm
air finally penetrates across the north. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW while
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. Some light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries is
possible late in the evening through Saturday morning for the
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites as a weak shortwave passes to our north. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  34  29  36  32  37 /  10  10  10  60  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  30  34  28  35  32  38 /  10  10  10  60  60  90
Pullman        31  37  32  40  36  44 /  10  10  10  60  70  90
Lewiston       35  43  33  44  37  48 /  10  10  10  50  60  70
Colville       32  36  28  35  30  34 /  10  10  10  60  50  60
Sandpoint      29  34  26  34  30  35 /  10  10  10  70  70  90
Kellogg        29  37  27  35  33  37 /  10  10  10  80  80  90
Moses Lake     34  39  31  39  31  41 /   0   0  10  40  20  50
Wenatchee      33  38  31  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  40  30  40
Omak           33  37  31  37  30  35 /   0   0  10  40  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 302222
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL HAVE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CLOUDS IN COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE MID GORGE. REMNANTS OF LOW
CLOUDS EAST OF I-5 FROM SALEM TO COTTAGE GROVE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
UP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOL AIR
MASS...DOES APPEAR THAT WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REFORM LATER THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS WHERE VIS BELOW ONE HALF MILE
AT TIMES. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SAT AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. AREAS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS
REFORM TO N AND NW OF OPS AREA 02Z TO 05Z...AND SPREAD BACK INTO
FIELD BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. VIS WILL BE 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE FROM 10Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SAT. LIKE TODAY...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PICK UP.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
SAT...WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT.

WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. EACH WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25
KT AT TIMES LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY
ON MON AS NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD
CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 302222
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL HAVE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CLOUDS IN COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE MID GORGE. REMNANTS OF LOW
CLOUDS EAST OF I-5 FROM SALEM TO COTTAGE GROVE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
UP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOL AIR
MASS...DOES APPEAR THAT WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REFORM LATER THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS WHERE VIS BELOW ONE HALF MILE
AT TIMES. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SAT AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. AREAS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS
REFORM TO N AND NW OF OPS AREA 02Z TO 05Z...AND SPREAD BACK INTO
FIELD BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. VIS WILL BE 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE FROM 10Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SAT. LIKE TODAY...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PICK UP.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
SAT...WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT.

WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. EACH WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25
KT AT TIMES LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY
ON MON AS NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD
CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 302222
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL HAVE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CLOUDS IN COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE MID GORGE. REMNANTS OF LOW
CLOUDS EAST OF I-5 FROM SALEM TO COTTAGE GROVE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
UP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOL AIR
MASS...DOES APPEAR THAT WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REFORM LATER THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS WHERE VIS BELOW ONE HALF MILE
AT TIMES. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SAT AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. AREAS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS
REFORM TO N AND NW OF OPS AREA 02Z TO 05Z...AND SPREAD BACK INTO
FIELD BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. VIS WILL BE 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE FROM 10Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SAT. LIKE TODAY...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PICK UP.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
SAT...WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT.

WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. EACH WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25
KT AT TIMES LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY
ON MON AS NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD
CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 302222
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
221 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
TIMING IS LOW. A SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL
APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
JUST BEFORE IT ALL CLEARED...AND EXPECT IT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WAS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENT IS BACK UP
TO 6.3 MB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 MODEL SAYS THE GRADIENT IS
GOING TO WEAKEN A BIT AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND IF IT
DOES...THE FOG COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS THAT
WAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AS THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REMAIN SOLID AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WINDS MIGHT
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY
AFFECT THE FOG FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE
REST OF THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH
AND RAISED POPS PREVIOUSLY IN THE MORNING UPDATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT
WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON
SUNDAY...MAYBE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO TIMES HIGHER. MAY SEE SOME
BREEZES ON THE COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHER CASCADES IN THE NORTH
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT AND
ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME SETTLING ON WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL FORM AND HOW WET IT WILL BE.
IT WILL LIKELY FORM SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON OR EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN LIFT NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED THE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
PROBLEMS. THE NEXT RATHER MATURE AND DECENTLY STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
COMES IN AROUND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF RATHER WET FRONTS
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND NEXT WEEK IS
TOWARD A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...OTHER THAN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF DIPS...SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL NOT LIKELY ADD MUCH IF ANYTHING TO THE DEFICIENT SNOW
PACK IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL HAVE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CLOUDS IN COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE MID GORGE. REMNANTS OF LOW
CLOUDS EAST OF I-5 FROM SALEM TO COTTAGE GROVE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
UP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOL AIR
MASS...DOES APPEAR THAT WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REFORM LATER THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS WHERE VIS BELOW ONE HALF MILE
AT TIMES. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SAT AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. AREAS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS
REFORM TO N AND NW OF OPS AREA 02Z TO 05Z...AND SPREAD BACK INTO
FIELD BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. VIS WILL BE 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE FROM 10Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SAT. LIKE TODAY...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PICK UP.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
SAT...WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT.

WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. EACH WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25
KT AT TIMES LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LIKELY
ON MON AS NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD
CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 302053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1253 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for rain and snow through the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog across the Spokane area and the palouse has become
patchy and limited mainly to the West Plains area. Thus the dense
fog advisories will expire at 1 pm.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW while
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. Some light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries is
possible late in the evening through Saturday morning for the
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites as a weak shortwave passes to our north. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  28  35  29  36  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  36  28  35  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        36  31  38  32  40  36 /   0  10  10  10  60  70
Lewiston       42  35  43  33  44  37 /   0  10  10  10  50  60
Colville       36  32  36  28  35  30 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Sandpoint      35  29  34  26  34  30 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Kellogg        40  29  37  27  35  33 /   0  10  10  10  80  80
Moses Lake     39  34  39  31  39  31 /   0   0   0  10  40  20
Wenatchee      38  33  38  31  39  32 /   0   0   0  10  40  30
Omak           37  33  37  31  37  30 /   0   0   0  10  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.

WA...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 302053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1253 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for rain and snow through the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog across the Spokane area and the palouse has become
patchy and limited mainly to the West Plains area. Thus the dense
fog advisories will expire at 1 pm.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW while
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. Some light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries is
possible late in the evening through Saturday morning for the
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites as a weak shortwave passes to our north. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  28  35  29  36  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  36  28  35  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        36  31  38  32  40  36 /   0  10  10  10  60  70
Lewiston       42  35  43  33  44  37 /   0  10  10  10  50  60
Colville       36  32  36  28  35  30 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Sandpoint      35  29  34  26  34  30 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Kellogg        40  29  37  27  35  33 /   0  10  10  10  80  80
Moses Lake     39  34  39  31  39  31 /   0   0   0  10  40  20
Wenatchee      38  33  38  31  39  32 /   0   0   0  10  40  30
Omak           37  33  37  31  37  30 /   0   0   0  10  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.

WA...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301743
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
942 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update made to increase the areal coverage of dense freezing
fog on the West Plains between Wilbur and Airway Heights as well
as to add a mention of patchy freezing drizzle around the Spokane
area which has led to slick roadways in some places. Also have had
reports of flurries in Omak as well as near Moyie Springs coming
out of the stratus layer so flurries were added for the northern
valleys. Temperatures have also been lowered a few degrees around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Pullman, and Sandpoint where the stratus
layer is expected to hold temperatures down a bit more than
previously thought based on current satellite/temperature trends.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW while
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. Some light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries is
possible late in the evening through Saturday morning for the
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites as a weak shortwave passes to our north. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  30  36  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  37  29  38  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        36  32  41  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  34  43  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       36  29  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      35  28  35  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        40  29  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  31  38  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      38  32  37  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           37  30  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Idaho
     Palouse.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
     Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301743
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
942 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update made to increase the areal coverage of dense freezing
fog on the West Plains between Wilbur and Airway Heights as well
as to add a mention of patchy freezing drizzle around the Spokane
area which has led to slick roadways in some places. Also have had
reports of flurries in Omak as well as near Moyie Springs coming
out of the stratus layer so flurries were added for the northern
valleys. Temperatures have also been lowered a few degrees around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Pullman, and Sandpoint where the stratus
layer is expected to hold temperatures down a bit more than
previously thought based on current satellite/temperature trends.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW while
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. Some light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries is
possible late in the evening through Saturday morning for the
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites as a weak shortwave passes to our north. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  30  36  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  37  29  38  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        36  32  41  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  34  43  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       36  29  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      35  28  35  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        40  29  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  31  38  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      38  32  37  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           37  30  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Idaho
     Palouse.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
     Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301743
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
942 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update made to increase the areal coverage of dense freezing
fog on the West Plains between Wilbur and Airway Heights as well
as to add a mention of patchy freezing drizzle around the Spokane
area which has led to slick roadways in some places. Also have had
reports of flurries in Omak as well as near Moyie Springs coming
out of the stratus layer so flurries were added for the northern
valleys. Temperatures have also been lowered a few degrees around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Pullman, and Sandpoint where the stratus
layer is expected to hold temperatures down a bit more than
previously thought based on current satellite/temperature trends.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW while
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. Some light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries is
possible late in the evening through Saturday morning for the
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites as a weak shortwave passes to our north. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  30  36  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  37  29  38  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        36  32  41  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  34  43  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       36  29  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      35  28  35  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        40  29  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  31  38  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      38  32  37  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           37  30  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Idaho
     Palouse.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
     Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301743
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
942 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update made to increase the areal coverage of dense freezing
fog on the West Plains between Wilbur and Airway Heights as well
as to add a mention of patchy freezing drizzle around the Spokane
area which has led to slick roadways in some places. Also have had
reports of flurries in Omak as well as near Moyie Springs coming
out of the stratus layer so flurries were added for the northern
valleys. Temperatures have also been lowered a few degrees around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Pullman, and Sandpoint where the stratus
layer is expected to hold temperatures down a bit more than
previously thought based on current satellite/temperature trends.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to
bring widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the
next 24 hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW while
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. Some light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries is
possible late in the evening through Saturday morning for the
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites as a weak shortwave passes to our north. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  30  36  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  37  29  38  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        36  32  41  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  34  43  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       36  29  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      35  28  35  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        40  29  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  31  38  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      38  32  37  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           37  30  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Idaho
     Palouse.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
     Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 301735
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
935 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
WILL GIVE FOG TO TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 130W EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE IS SQUASHING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED IN THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT WHIDBEY ISLAND
SOUTHWARD WITH ANOTHER PATCH OF FOG SEEN OVER THE STRAIT OF GEORGIA
AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE COAST. UNLIKE THE NAM12 AND GFS...THE HRRR
MAINTAINS THE FOG OVER THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AND THE AREAS AROUND
THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ALL DAY. THIS
APPEARS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE FOG AND ITS
CURRENT NARROW EXTEND...BUT FOG CAN PERSIST BELOW INVERSIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL INCREASE THE FOG AND
DECREASE MAX TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY...BUT WILL STILL GO FOR
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH PASSES THE AREA BY TO THE
EAST...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE REBOUNDS THEN SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION AND LIGHT PRES GRADIENTS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
TO REFORM...THEN PERSIST INTO MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE INVERSION
AND FOG...TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...ABOUT HALF WAY TO AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA...THOUGH THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS MAY BE
SHADOWED BY THE OLYMPICS AND ONLY GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. ANOTHER...BIT MORE ENERGETIC FRONT...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

FORECAST UPDATES WERE LIMITED TO THE FIRST 3 PERIODS THIS MORNING.
ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE
DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE
ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
MONDAY KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. BEYOND MONDAY FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE ECMWF WHICH ON THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WAS BRINGING
A WARM FRONT INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NOW HAS THE PRECIP
AIMED AT OREGON WITH A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. THE GFS
ALSO HAS THE PRECIPITATION GOING INTO OREGON WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE
RIDGE OFF THE COAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING
WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH MORE CONSOLIDATED ON THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT VERSUS
THE PREVIOUS RUNS. EVEN WITH THIS WOULD LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE
RUNS WITH THIS SOLUTION BEFORE GOING WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL STAY WITH THE CLIMATOLOGY
CHANCE POPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE
WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. W FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME NW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE
TODAY...BECMG NEARLY FLAT TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS BLO 1SM
AND CIGS AOB 300 FEET WILL DSIPT BY 2100 UTC. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AFTER 0300 UTC SATURDAY.

KSEA...THE SFC VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO 2SM BY 1900 UTC. ANTICIPATE
VFR CONDITIONS BY 2000 UTC. FOG WILL RETURN AFTER 0600 UTC
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WEAK OR FLAT FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES OF 1 NM OR LESS. A WEAK COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 301735
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
935 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
WILL GIVE FOG TO TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 130W EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE IS SQUASHING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED IN THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT WHIDBEY ISLAND
SOUTHWARD WITH ANOTHER PATCH OF FOG SEEN OVER THE STRAIT OF GEORGIA
AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE COAST. UNLIKE THE NAM12 AND GFS...THE HRRR
MAINTAINS THE FOG OVER THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AND THE AREAS AROUND
THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ALL DAY. THIS
APPEARS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE FOG AND ITS
CURRENT NARROW EXTEND...BUT FOG CAN PERSIST BELOW INVERSIONS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL INCREASE THE FOG AND
DECREASE MAX TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY...BUT WILL STILL GO FOR
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH PASSES THE AREA BY TO THE
EAST...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE REBOUNDS THEN SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION AND LIGHT PRES GRADIENTS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
TO REFORM...THEN PERSIST INTO MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE INVERSION
AND FOG...TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...ABOUT HALF WAY TO AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA...THOUGH THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS MAY BE
SHADOWED BY THE OLYMPICS AND ONLY GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. ANOTHER...BIT MORE ENERGETIC FRONT...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

FORECAST UPDATES WERE LIMITED TO THE FIRST 3 PERIODS THIS MORNING.
ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE
DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE
ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
MONDAY KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. BEYOND MONDAY FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE ECMWF WHICH ON THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WAS BRINGING
A WARM FRONT INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NOW HAS THE PRECIP
AIMED AT OREGON WITH A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. THE GFS
ALSO HAS THE PRECIPITATION GOING INTO OREGON WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE
RIDGE OFF THE COAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING
WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH MORE CONSOLIDATED ON THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT VERSUS
THE PREVIOUS RUNS. EVEN WITH THIS WOULD LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE
RUNS WITH THIS SOLUTION BEFORE GOING WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL STAY WITH THE CLIMATOLOGY
CHANCE POPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE
WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. W FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME NW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE
TODAY...BECMG NEARLY FLAT TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS BLO 1SM
AND CIGS AOB 300 FEET WILL DSIPT BY 2100 UTC. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AFTER 0300 UTC SATURDAY.

KSEA...THE SFC VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO 2SM BY 1900 UTC. ANTICIPATE
VFR CONDITIONS BY 2000 UTC. FOG WILL RETURN AFTER 0600 UTC
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WEAK OR FLAT FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES OF 1 NM OR LESS. A WEAK COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KPQR 301729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. A
SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY
DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE IT
ALL CLEARED...WITH IT FAVORING THE EASTERN SECTIONS SOUTHWARD IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 5 NORTH OF PORTLAND...BUT
LESS NEAR THE GORGE FROM THE EAST WINDS. EXPECT SIMILAR CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST WINDS HIT THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND ARE DEFLECTED SOUTH ALONG THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT
WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE WEAKENING TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...
SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PATTERN OF THE
LAST TWO DAYS. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY AFFECT THE FOG
FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE REST OF THE
VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE
SPED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH AND RAISED POPS. WE
SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SEEING A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH. A BIT WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME BREEZES ON THE
COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA
THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY ON TUESDAY.
INSTEAD...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL
PATTERN MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF RAINMIDWEEK...BUT
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS
REMAIN. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE
MIDWEEK. EITHER WAY...THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY WARM SO
SUBSTANTIAL CASCADE SNOWS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS MAY
END UP BEING A TOUCH LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE
COLD AIR DAMMING COULD ALLOW HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TO FALL DEPENDING ON
HOW THESE SYSTEMS PLAY OUT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO HELP OUR PITIFUL MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. /NEUMAN
&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN TODAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL
HUGGING COASTAL BAYS...BUT MORE FOG/LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA AND COWLITZ VALLEYS. TOPS GENERALLY AROUND 200 TO 500
FEET...SO MOST OF THIS WILL BURN OFF THIS AM. HOWEVER...STRATUS IN
COWLITZ VALLEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW STRATUS IS IN WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM KUAO SOUTHWARD...MOSTLY EAST
OF I-5. LIKE THU...THIS STRATUS BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
NOT MUCH CHANGE...IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM IN NEARLY THE
SAME AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER OPS AREAS THROUGH 20Z THOUGH VIS 1/4
TO 1/2 MILE UNTIL 18Z. TOPS OF LAYER AROUND 500 TO 600 FEET SO WILL
TAKE UNTIL 20Z FOR FOG TO RETREAT BACK TO NW. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
SAT...WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT.

WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. EACH WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25
KT AT TIMES. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT
THU AND FRI...WITH BUILDING SEAS.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. A
SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY
DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE IT
ALL CLEARED...WITH IT FAVORING THE EASTERN SECTIONS SOUTHWARD IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 5 NORTH OF PORTLAND...BUT
LESS NEAR THE GORGE FROM THE EAST WINDS. EXPECT SIMILAR CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST WINDS HIT THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND ARE DEFLECTED SOUTH ALONG THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT
WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE WEAKENING TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...
SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PATTERN OF THE
LAST TWO DAYS. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY AFFECT THE FOG
FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE REST OF THE
VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE
SPED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH AND RAISED POPS. WE
SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SEEING A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH. A BIT WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME BREEZES ON THE
COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA
THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY ON TUESDAY.
INSTEAD...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL
PATTERN MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF RAINMIDWEEK...BUT
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS
REMAIN. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE
MIDWEEK. EITHER WAY...THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY WARM SO
SUBSTANTIAL CASCADE SNOWS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS MAY
END UP BEING A TOUCH LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE
COLD AIR DAMMING COULD ALLOW HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TO FALL DEPENDING ON
HOW THESE SYSTEMS PLAY OUT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO HELP OUR PITIFUL MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. /NEUMAN
&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN TODAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL
HUGGING COASTAL BAYS...BUT MORE FOG/LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA AND COWLITZ VALLEYS. TOPS GENERALLY AROUND 200 TO 500
FEET...SO MOST OF THIS WILL BURN OFF THIS AM. HOWEVER...STRATUS IN
COWLITZ VALLEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW STRATUS IS IN WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM KUAO SOUTHWARD...MOSTLY EAST
OF I-5. LIKE THU...THIS STRATUS BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
NOT MUCH CHANGE...IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM IN NEARLY THE
SAME AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER OPS AREAS THROUGH 20Z THOUGH VIS 1/4
TO 1/2 MILE UNTIL 18Z. TOPS OF LAYER AROUND 500 TO 600 FEET SO WILL
TAKE UNTIL 20Z FOR FOG TO RETREAT BACK TO NW. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
SAT...WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT.

WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. EACH WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25
KT AT TIMES. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT
THU AND FRI...WITH BUILDING SEAS.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. A
SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY
DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE IT
ALL CLEARED...WITH IT FAVORING THE EASTERN SECTIONS SOUTHWARD IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 5 NORTH OF PORTLAND...BUT
LESS NEAR THE GORGE FROM THE EAST WINDS. EXPECT SIMILAR CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST WINDS HIT THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND ARE DEFLECTED SOUTH ALONG THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT
WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE WEAKENING TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...
SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PATTERN OF THE
LAST TWO DAYS. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY AFFECT THE FOG
FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE REST OF THE
VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE
SPED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH AND RAISED POPS. WE
SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SEEING A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH. A BIT WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME BREEZES ON THE
COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA
THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY ON TUESDAY.
INSTEAD...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL
PATTERN MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF RAINMIDWEEK...BUT
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS
REMAIN. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE
MIDWEEK. EITHER WAY...THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY WARM SO
SUBSTANTIAL CASCADE SNOWS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS MAY
END UP BEING A TOUCH LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE
COLD AIR DAMMING COULD ALLOW HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TO FALL DEPENDING ON
HOW THESE SYSTEMS PLAY OUT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO HELP OUR PITIFUL MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. /NEUMAN
&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN TODAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL
HUGGING COASTAL BAYS...BUT MORE FOG/LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA AND COWLITZ VALLEYS. TOPS GENERALLY AROUND 200 TO 500
FEET...SO MOST OF THIS WILL BURN OFF THIS AM. HOWEVER...STRATUS IN
COWLITZ VALLEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW STRATUS IS IN WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM KUAO SOUTHWARD...MOSTLY EAST
OF I-5. LIKE THU...THIS STRATUS BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
NOT MUCH CHANGE...IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM IN NEARLY THE
SAME AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER OPS AREAS THROUGH 20Z THOUGH VIS 1/4
TO 1/2 MILE UNTIL 18Z. TOPS OF LAYER AROUND 500 TO 600 FEET SO WILL
TAKE UNTIL 20Z FOR FOG TO RETREAT BACK TO NW. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
SAT...WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT.

WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. EACH WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25
KT AT TIMES. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT
THU AND FRI...WITH BUILDING SEAS.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. A
SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY
DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE IT
ALL CLEARED...WITH IT FAVORING THE EASTERN SECTIONS SOUTHWARD IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 5 NORTH OF PORTLAND...BUT
LESS NEAR THE GORGE FROM THE EAST WINDS. EXPECT SIMILAR CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST WINDS HIT THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND ARE DEFLECTED SOUTH ALONG THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT
WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE WEAKENING TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...
SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PATTERN OF THE
LAST TWO DAYS. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY AFFECT THE FOG
FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE REST OF THE
VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE
SPED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH AND RAISED POPS. WE
SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SEEING A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH. A BIT WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME BREEZES ON THE
COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA
THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY ON TUESDAY.
INSTEAD...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL
PATTERN MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF RAINMIDWEEK...BUT
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS
REMAIN. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE
MIDWEEK. EITHER WAY...THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY WARM SO
SUBSTANTIAL CASCADE SNOWS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS MAY
END UP BEING A TOUCH LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE
COLD AIR DAMMING COULD ALLOW HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TO FALL DEPENDING ON
HOW THESE SYSTEMS PLAY OUT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO HELP OUR PITIFUL MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. /NEUMAN
&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN TODAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL
HUGGING COASTAL BAYS...BUT MORE FOG/LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA AND COWLITZ VALLEYS. TOPS GENERALLY AROUND 200 TO 500
FEET...SO MOST OF THIS WILL BURN OFF THIS AM. HOWEVER...STRATUS IN
COWLITZ VALLEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW STRATUS IS IN WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM KUAO SOUTHWARD...MOSTLY EAST
OF I-5. LIKE THU...THIS STRATUS BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
NOT MUCH CHANGE...IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM IN NEARLY THE
SAME AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER OPS AREAS THROUGH 20Z THOUGH VIS 1/4
TO 1/2 MILE UNTIL 18Z. TOPS OF LAYER AROUND 500 TO 600 FEET SO WILL
TAKE UNTIL 20Z FOR FOG TO RETREAT BACK TO NW. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
SAT...WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT.

WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. EACH WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25
KT AT TIMES. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT
THU AND FRI...WITH BUILDING SEAS.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST
WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT MOVES BY. SOME MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MID WEEK FROM A WARM FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. A
SERIES OF WETTER COLD FRONTS IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY
DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE IT
ALL CLEARED...WITH IT FAVORING THE EASTERN SECTIONS SOUTHWARD IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 5 NORTH OF PORTLAND...BUT
LESS NEAR THE GORGE FROM THE EAST WINDS. EXPECT SIMILAR CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST WINDS HIT THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND ARE DEFLECTED SOUTH ALONG THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT
WE SAW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE WEAKENING TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...
SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PATTERN OF THE
LAST TWO DAYS. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND A BIT SLOWER CLEARING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES STRENGTHENS SOME DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY AFFECT THE FOG
FORMATION SOME NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER...BUT THE REST OF THE
VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE
SPED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION UP A TOUCH AND RAISED POPS. WE
SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SEEING A HALF INCH OR MORE AND THE VALLEYS A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH. A BIT WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME BREEZES ON THE
COAST MONDAY AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA
THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY ON TUESDAY.
INSTEAD...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL
PATTERN MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF RAINMIDWEEK...BUT
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS
REMAIN. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE
MIDWEEK. EITHER WAY...THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY WARM SO
SUBSTANTIAL CASCADE SNOWS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS MAY
END UP BEING A TOUCH LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE
COLD AIR DAMMING COULD ALLOW HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TO FALL DEPENDING ON
HOW THESE SYSTEMS PLAY OUT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO HELP OUR PITIFUL MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. /NEUMAN
&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN TODAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL
HUGGING COASTAL BAYS...BUT MORE FOG/LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA AND COWLITZ VALLEYS. TOPS GENERALLY AROUND 200 TO 500
FEET...SO MOST OF THIS WILL BURN OFF THIS AM. HOWEVER...STRATUS IN
COWLITZ VALLEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW STRATUS IS IN WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM KUAO SOUTHWARD...MOSTLY EAST
OF I-5. LIKE THU...THIS STRATUS BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
NOT MUCH CHANGE...IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM IN NEARLY THE
SAME AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER OPS AREAS THROUGH 20Z THOUGH VIS 1/4
TO 1/2 MILE UNTIL 18Z. TOPS OF LAYER AROUND 500 TO 600 FEET SO WILL
TAKE UNTIL 20Z FOR FOG TO RETREAT BACK TO NW. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
SAT...WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT.

WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. EACH WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25
KT AT TIMES. IF PATTERN HOLDS...GOOD CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GALES NEXT
THU AND FRI...WITH BUILDING SEAS.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
801 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update made to increase the areal coverage of dense freezing
fog on the West Plains between Wilbur and Airway Heights as well
as to add a mention of patchy freezing drizzle around the Spokane
area which has led to slick roadways in some places. Also have had
reports of flurries in Omak as well as near Moyie Springs coming
out of the stratus layer so flurries were added for the northern
valleys. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly KLWS
while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. The stratus is expected to lower once again late
evening as low level inversions strengthen. Some light drizzle
late in the evening for the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites will be possible
as a weak shortwave passes to our north. Overnight expect the
return of IFR/LIFR conditions. /Fliehman



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  30  36  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  29  38  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        40  32  41  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  34  43  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       36  29  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      36  28  35  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        40  29  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  31  38  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      38  32  37  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           37  30  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Idaho
     Palouse.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
     Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
801 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update made to increase the areal coverage of dense freezing
fog on the West Plains between Wilbur and Airway Heights as well
as to add a mention of patchy freezing drizzle around the Spokane
area which has led to slick roadways in some places. Also have had
reports of flurries in Omak as well as near Moyie Springs coming
out of the stratus layer so flurries were added for the northern
valleys. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly KLWS
while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. The stratus is expected to lower once again late
evening as low level inversions strengthen. Some light drizzle
late in the evening for the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites will be possible
as a weak shortwave passes to our north. Overnight expect the
return of IFR/LIFR conditions. /Fliehman



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  30  36  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  29  38  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        40  32  41  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  34  43  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       36  29  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      36  28  35  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        40  29  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  31  38  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      38  32  37  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           37  30  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Idaho
     Palouse.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
     Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
345 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet weather will prevail during
this period...but there is a subtle feature which will approach
later tonight into early Saturday which could deliver some
weather. For today the weather will be about as mundane as weather
can get during this time of year in the Inland Northwest. Upper
level high pressure will once again remain fixed over the region
with the jet stream poised over central BC. Meanwhile a fairly
broad area of high pressure will reside near the ground resulting
in very light winds and hence very poor mixing potential. This
suggests the fog and stratus currently over most elevations below
3500 feet per the latest fog product will persist longer into the
day. For locations west of a line from Colville to Pullman...the
odds of the clouds breaking up are rather slim as the stratus
there is most likely thicker than the deck east of this area. This
was the approximate line which delineated the clearing line late
yesterday afternoon. East of the line the prospects of a breakup
are a little better...since we suspect the deck is shallower
however confidence is far from good. This area was subject to
rapid fog development during the evening and much of it was dense.
Lately though the fog has been lifting across the Idaho Panhandle
and even the Spokane Valley into the Coeur d`Alene area. We
currently have a dense fog advisory in effect for a large portion
of the Idaho Panhandle and across the eastern quarter of
Washington, however if this lifting trend continues we will have
to drop a good portion of them.

For tonight and into early Saturday the weather gets a little more
"exciting". This excitement will be in response to a shortwave
trough currently situated near 50n/130w. All models are doing well
with its placement compared to satellite and all take the feature
through BC today before diving it southeast into NW Montana late
tonight into early Saturday. Deep moisture won`t likely accompany
this feature...however it will likely induce some weak upward
motion through the ever-present low-level cloud deck. This will
likely provide the impetus for some drizzle (or possibly flurries)
across far eastern Washington and much of the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will be close to freezing so we would likely see a
mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle. Roads could get slick but
confidence in drizzle forecasts is quite low so will cover
situation via social media rather than a weather highlight. The
threat of drizzle and freezing drizzle should wane rapidly during
the afternoon as the shortwave trough shears apart into northern
Wyoming and lowers the ascent through the saturated boundary
layer. fx

Saturday night through Thursday: The region transitions to a
wetter pattern. The system that christens the transition, a
organized frontal wave, makes its way in with a subtropical
moisture tap Sunday. Strengthening isentropic ascent with the
leading warm front and that deepening moisture will lead to
increasing precipitation chances. Some of that lift/moisture combo
starts into the Cascades and northern mountains Saturday night
late, but the stronger threat and more likely precipitation comes
in between Sunday and Sunday night.

* Precipitation-type: On Sunday morning light snow accumulations will
  be possible down to the valley floors, largely away from the
  deeper Basin to lower Palouse and L-C Valley. By Sunday
  afternoon and evening the snow threat in the valleys retreats
  north of Highway 2, though some snow may still mix with the rain
  threat about the southern hills around the Spokane/C`dA area.
  And where snow may continue in the northern valleys
  accumulations may be limited with the heating of the day.

* Snow amounts: light to moderate snow accumulation are possible
  in the mountains above about 3000 to 4000 feet. Here some 2 to 5
  inches are possible between from Sunday morning to Monday
  morning, with local amounts near 8. This may impact locations
  such as Lookout Pass, Sherman Pass and Stevens Pass.
  Accumulations about the valleys are expected to be lighter. The
  Cascade valleys, north of Lake Chelan, and northeast WA and
  north ID valleys could see 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts
  near 3 inches. Other areas such as the Waterville Plateau to the
  Spokane/C`dA area, and the higher Palouse (north of Pullman)
  could see anywhere from a trace to a half inch, with isolated
  amounts to 1 inch.

On Monday a second wave comes in and keeps the precipitation
threat high, at least away from the lee of the Cascades and
deeper Columbia Basin. Current timing suggests the higher threat
with this second wave comes in Monday afternoon and evening,
though the threat may not really end across the central Panhandle
Mountains after Sunday`s system. By this time snow levels look a
bit higher, between 2.5 and 5.0kft, lowest toward the northern
mountains. So more of valley rain and mountain snow event is
projected. However a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out along and
north of highway 2 in the morning and night hours.

From Tuesday to Thursday the region remains in a more progressive
pattern, with the passage of occasional shortwaves with
intermittent wet and dry periods. Through the period the highest
threat will be in the windward facing slopes, i.e. the Cascade
crest and the northeast WA and ID panhandle mountains.
Occasionally the threat will ramp up across the valleys and basin
areas, tied to the precise timing of those waves. However model
consistency on that point is poor. Loose agreement suggests a
drier period between Tuesday and Wednesday, or at least a shift of
the higher precipitation threat toward the WA/OR border and lower
Panhandle southward, before the threat rises again toward
Thursday. Look for a continued valley rain and mountain snow
threat during the day, with a possible rain/snow mix in the
valleys during the night and morning hours. /J Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly KLWS
while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. The stratus is expected to lower once again late
evening as low level inversions strengthen. Some light drizzle
late in the evening for the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites will be possible
as a weak shortwave passes to our north. Overnight expect the
return of IFR/LIFR conditions. /Fliehman


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  30  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  31  39  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        39  31  44  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  33  47  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       40  32  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      36  30  36  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        39  30  39  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  32  40  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      39  32  39  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           36  32  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
345 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet weather will prevail during
this period...but there is a subtle feature which will approach
later tonight into early Saturday which could deliver some
weather. For today the weather will be about as mundane as weather
can get during this time of year in the Inland Northwest. Upper
level high pressure will once again remain fixed over the region
with the jet stream poised over central BC. Meanwhile a fairly
broad area of high pressure will reside near the ground resulting
in very light winds and hence very poor mixing potential. This
suggests the fog and stratus currently over most elevations below
3500 feet per the latest fog product will persist longer into the
day. For locations west of a line from Colville to Pullman...the
odds of the clouds breaking up are rather slim as the stratus
there is most likely thicker than the deck east of this area. This
was the approximate line which delineated the clearing line late
yesterday afternoon. East of the line the prospects of a breakup
are a little better...since we suspect the deck is shallower
however confidence is far from good. This area was subject to
rapid fog development during the evening and much of it was dense.
Lately though the fog has been lifting across the Idaho Panhandle
and even the Spokane Valley into the Coeur d`Alene area. We
currently have a dense fog advisory in effect for a large portion
of the Idaho Panhandle and across the eastern quarter of
Washington, however if this lifting trend continues we will have
to drop a good portion of them.

For tonight and into early Saturday the weather gets a little more
"exciting". This excitement will be in response to a shortwave
trough currently situated near 50n/130w. All models are doing well
with its placement compared to satellite and all take the feature
through BC today before diving it southeast into NW Montana late
tonight into early Saturday. Deep moisture won`t likely accompany
this feature...however it will likely induce some weak upward
motion through the ever-present low-level cloud deck. This will
likely provide the impetus for some drizzle (or possibly flurries)
across far eastern Washington and much of the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will be close to freezing so we would likely see a
mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle. Roads could get slick but
confidence in drizzle forecasts is quite low so will cover
situation via social media rather than a weather highlight. The
threat of drizzle and freezing drizzle should wane rapidly during
the afternoon as the shortwave trough shears apart into northern
Wyoming and lowers the ascent through the saturated boundary
layer. fx

Saturday night through Thursday: The region transitions to a
wetter pattern. The system that christens the transition, a
organized frontal wave, makes its way in with a subtropical
moisture tap Sunday. Strengthening isentropic ascent with the
leading warm front and that deepening moisture will lead to
increasing precipitation chances. Some of that lift/moisture combo
starts into the Cascades and northern mountains Saturday night
late, but the stronger threat and more likely precipitation comes
in between Sunday and Sunday night.

* Precipitation-type: On Sunday morning light snow accumulations will
  be possible down to the valley floors, largely away from the
  deeper Basin to lower Palouse and L-C Valley. By Sunday
  afternoon and evening the snow threat in the valleys retreats
  north of Highway 2, though some snow may still mix with the rain
  threat about the southern hills around the Spokane/C`dA area.
  And where snow may continue in the northern valleys
  accumulations may be limited with the heating of the day.

* Snow amounts: light to moderate snow accumulation are possible
  in the mountains above about 3000 to 4000 feet. Here some 2 to 5
  inches are possible between from Sunday morning to Monday
  morning, with local amounts near 8. This may impact locations
  such as Lookout Pass, Sherman Pass and Stevens Pass.
  Accumulations about the valleys are expected to be lighter. The
  Cascade valleys, north of Lake Chelan, and northeast WA and
  north ID valleys could see 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts
  near 3 inches. Other areas such as the Waterville Plateau to the
  Spokane/C`dA area, and the higher Palouse (north of Pullman)
  could see anywhere from a trace to a half inch, with isolated
  amounts to 1 inch.

On Monday a second wave comes in and keeps the precipitation
threat high, at least away from the lee of the Cascades and
deeper Columbia Basin. Current timing suggests the higher threat
with this second wave comes in Monday afternoon and evening,
though the threat may not really end across the central Panhandle
Mountains after Sunday`s system. By this time snow levels look a
bit higher, between 2.5 and 5.0kft, lowest toward the northern
mountains. So more of valley rain and mountain snow event is
projected. However a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out along and
north of highway 2 in the morning and night hours.

From Tuesday to Thursday the region remains in a more progressive
pattern, with the passage of occasional shortwaves with
intermittent wet and dry periods. Through the period the highest
threat will be in the windward facing slopes, i.e. the Cascade
crest and the northeast WA and ID panhandle mountains.
Occasionally the threat will ramp up across the valleys and basin
areas, tied to the precise timing of those waves. However model
consistency on that point is poor. Loose agreement suggests a
drier period between Tuesday and Wednesday, or at least a shift of
the higher precipitation threat toward the WA/OR border and lower
Panhandle southward, before the threat rises again toward
Thursday. Look for a continued valley rain and mountain snow
threat during the day, with a possible rain/snow mix in the
valleys during the night and morning hours. /J Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly KLWS
while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. The stratus is expected to lower once again late
evening as low level inversions strengthen. Some light drizzle
late in the evening for the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites will be possible
as a weak shortwave passes to our north. Overnight expect the
return of IFR/LIFR conditions. /Fliehman


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  30  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  31  39  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        39  31  44  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  33  47  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       40  32  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      36  30  36  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        39  30  39  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  32  40  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      39  32  39  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           36  32  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
345 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet weather will prevail during
this period...but there is a subtle feature which will approach
later tonight into early Saturday which could deliver some
weather. For today the weather will be about as mundane as weather
can get during this time of year in the Inland Northwest. Upper
level high pressure will once again remain fixed over the region
with the jet stream poised over central BC. Meanwhile a fairly
broad area of high pressure will reside near the ground resulting
in very light winds and hence very poor mixing potential. This
suggests the fog and stratus currently over most elevations below
3500 feet per the latest fog product will persist longer into the
day. For locations west of a line from Colville to Pullman...the
odds of the clouds breaking up are rather slim as the stratus
there is most likely thicker than the deck east of this area. This
was the approximate line which delineated the clearing line late
yesterday afternoon. East of the line the prospects of a breakup
are a little better...since we suspect the deck is shallower
however confidence is far from good. This area was subject to
rapid fog development during the evening and much of it was dense.
Lately though the fog has been lifting across the Idaho Panhandle
and even the Spokane Valley into the Coeur d`Alene area. We
currently have a dense fog advisory in effect for a large portion
of the Idaho Panhandle and across the eastern quarter of
Washington, however if this lifting trend continues we will have
to drop a good portion of them.

For tonight and into early Saturday the weather gets a little more
"exciting". This excitement will be in response to a shortwave
trough currently situated near 50n/130w. All models are doing well
with its placement compared to satellite and all take the feature
through BC today before diving it southeast into NW Montana late
tonight into early Saturday. Deep moisture won`t likely accompany
this feature...however it will likely induce some weak upward
motion through the ever-present low-level cloud deck. This will
likely provide the impetus for some drizzle (or possibly flurries)
across far eastern Washington and much of the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will be close to freezing so we would likely see a
mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle. Roads could get slick but
confidence in drizzle forecasts is quite low so will cover
situation via social media rather than a weather highlight. The
threat of drizzle and freezing drizzle should wane rapidly during
the afternoon as the shortwave trough shears apart into northern
Wyoming and lowers the ascent through the saturated boundary
layer. fx

Saturday night through Thursday: The region transitions to a
wetter pattern. The system that christens the transition, a
organized frontal wave, makes its way in with a subtropical
moisture tap Sunday. Strengthening isentropic ascent with the
leading warm front and that deepening moisture will lead to
increasing precipitation chances. Some of that lift/moisture combo
starts into the Cascades and northern mountains Saturday night
late, but the stronger threat and more likely precipitation comes
in between Sunday and Sunday night.

* Precipitation-type: On Sunday morning light snow accumulations will
  be possible down to the valley floors, largely away from the
  deeper Basin to lower Palouse and L-C Valley. By Sunday
  afternoon and evening the snow threat in the valleys retreats
  north of Highway 2, though some snow may still mix with the rain
  threat about the southern hills around the Spokane/C`dA area.
  And where snow may continue in the northern valleys
  accumulations may be limited with the heating of the day.

* Snow amounts: light to moderate snow accumulation are possible
  in the mountains above about 3000 to 4000 feet. Here some 2 to 5
  inches are possible between from Sunday morning to Monday
  morning, with local amounts near 8. This may impact locations
  such as Lookout Pass, Sherman Pass and Stevens Pass.
  Accumulations about the valleys are expected to be lighter. The
  Cascade valleys, north of Lake Chelan, and northeast WA and
  north ID valleys could see 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts
  near 3 inches. Other areas such as the Waterville Plateau to the
  Spokane/C`dA area, and the higher Palouse (north of Pullman)
  could see anywhere from a trace to a half inch, with isolated
  amounts to 1 inch.

On Monday a second wave comes in and keeps the precipitation
threat high, at least away from the lee of the Cascades and
deeper Columbia Basin. Current timing suggests the higher threat
with this second wave comes in Monday afternoon and evening,
though the threat may not really end across the central Panhandle
Mountains after Sunday`s system. By this time snow levels look a
bit higher, between 2.5 and 5.0kft, lowest toward the northern
mountains. So more of valley rain and mountain snow event is
projected. However a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out along and
north of highway 2 in the morning and night hours.

From Tuesday to Thursday the region remains in a more progressive
pattern, with the passage of occasional shortwaves with
intermittent wet and dry periods. Through the period the highest
threat will be in the windward facing slopes, i.e. the Cascade
crest and the northeast WA and ID panhandle mountains.
Occasionally the threat will ramp up across the valleys and basin
areas, tied to the precise timing of those waves. However model
consistency on that point is poor. Loose agreement suggests a
drier period between Tuesday and Wednesday, or at least a shift of
the higher precipitation threat toward the WA/OR border and lower
Panhandle southward, before the threat rises again toward
Thursday. Look for a continued valley rain and mountain snow
threat during the day, with a possible rain/snow mix in the
valleys during the night and morning hours. /J Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly KLWS
while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements will be noted at all sites as the fog lifts to more
of a stratus deck midday, but all sites will stay in IFR or MVFR
conditions. The stratus is expected to lower once again late
evening as low level inversions strengthen. Some light drizzle
late in the evening for the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE sites will be possible
as a weak shortwave passes to our north. Overnight expect the
return of IFR/LIFR conditions. /Fliehman


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  30  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  31  39  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        39  31  44  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  33  47  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       40  32  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      36  30  36  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        39  30  39  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  32  40  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      39  32  39  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           36  32  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 301120
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND
SOME FOG MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S AT 3 AM/11Z.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER IS
SHALLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORNING BREAKOUT IN THE LOCATIONS WERE
FOG FORMED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH 50S COMMON.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING BACK TO NEAR 130W.
SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAINING LIGHT OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
COLDER SPOTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT PATCHY FOG FROM FORMING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING APPROACHING THE COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
STILL WEST OF 130W BY 00Z SUNDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES LOWERING A BIT
OFFSHORE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY VERSUS FRIDAYS READINGS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH COAST...INTO
THE LOWER 60S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 50S WILL BE COMMON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT INSIDE 130W BY 12Z SUNDAY ON THE GFS AND NAM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT STILL OUT AROUND 130W. RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST STARTING TO REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS BY 12Z SO WILL STAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE RAIN
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY. THE FASTER NAM/GFS
SOLUTION HAS THE FRONT AT LEAST INTO THE CASCADES BY 00Z MONDAY
WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STILL HAS THE FRONT OFFSHORE AT 00Z MONDAY.
ALL OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWLANDS BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 50
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
WITH THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON MONDAY KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. BEYOND MONDAY
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE ECMWF WHICH ON THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT
WAS BRINGING A WARM FRONT INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NOW HAS
THE PRECIP AIMED AT OREGON WITH A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS ALSO HAS THE PRECIPITATION GOING INTO OREGON WITH A
LITTLE BIT MORE RIDGE OFF THE COAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. THERE IS A
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH MORE CONSOLIDATED ON
THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS RUNS. EVEN WITH THIS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE RUNS WITH THIS SOLUTION BEFORE GOING WITH
A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL STAY
WITH THE CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE POPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBLE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PACNW TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER E WA WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND
STABLE WITH ONLY LOCAL SURFACE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND
STRATUS.

THE RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. AREAS
OF FOG ARE FORMING OVER THE SW INTERIOR AN S PUGET SOUND WITH PATCHY
FOG ELSEWHERE. THE MORE PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS OVER THE S PART
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY WITH PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE CLEARING A LITTLE
EARLIER.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK MIXING
FROM N WINDS SEEMS TO HAVE HELD THE FOG AT BAY...BUT THE N WIND IS
WEAKENING SO THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME BRIEF FOG WILL
FORM 12Z-16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN N-NE 1-4 KT THIS MORNING AND
3-6 KT THIS AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS
ARE PRETTY CLOSE...BUT SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE OTHERS SHOW LOW END SCA WINDS.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONT ON MONDAY. ECMWF
HAS TRENDED WEAKER OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER. THE GFS NOW HAS THE POST-FRONTAL W FLOW A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH BOTH ARE IN THE SCA RANGE. THE
00Z ECMWF SHOWS A SMALL 1009 MB SURFACE LOW FORMING BRIEFLY JUST
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS CAPE FLATTERY. THE 00Z GFS HAS A 1005
MB LOW. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 301120
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND
SOME FOG MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S AT 3 AM/11Z.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER IS
SHALLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORNING BREAKOUT IN THE LOCATIONS WERE
FOG FORMED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH 50S COMMON.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING BACK TO NEAR 130W.
SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAINING LIGHT OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
COLDER SPOTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT PATCHY FOG FROM FORMING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING APPROACHING THE COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
STILL WEST OF 130W BY 00Z SUNDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES LOWERING A BIT
OFFSHORE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY VERSUS FRIDAYS READINGS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH COAST...INTO
THE LOWER 60S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 50S WILL BE COMMON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT INSIDE 130W BY 12Z SUNDAY ON THE GFS AND NAM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT STILL OUT AROUND 130W. RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST STARTING TO REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS BY 12Z SO WILL STAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE RAIN
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY. THE FASTER NAM/GFS
SOLUTION HAS THE FRONT AT LEAST INTO THE CASCADES BY 00Z MONDAY
WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STILL HAS THE FRONT OFFSHORE AT 00Z MONDAY.
ALL OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWLANDS BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 50
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
WITH THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON MONDAY KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. BEYOND MONDAY
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE ECMWF WHICH ON THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT
WAS BRINGING A WARM FRONT INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NOW HAS
THE PRECIP AIMED AT OREGON WITH A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS ALSO HAS THE PRECIPITATION GOING INTO OREGON WITH A
LITTLE BIT MORE RIDGE OFF THE COAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. THERE IS A
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH MORE CONSOLIDATED ON
THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS RUNS. EVEN WITH THIS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE RUNS WITH THIS SOLUTION BEFORE GOING WITH
A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL STAY
WITH THE CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE POPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBLE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PACNW TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER E WA WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND
STABLE WITH ONLY LOCAL SURFACE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND
STRATUS.

THE RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. AREAS
OF FOG ARE FORMING OVER THE SW INTERIOR AN S PUGET SOUND WITH PATCHY
FOG ELSEWHERE. THE MORE PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS OVER THE S PART
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY WITH PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE CLEARING A LITTLE
EARLIER.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK MIXING
FROM N WINDS SEEMS TO HAVE HELD THE FOG AT BAY...BUT THE N WIND IS
WEAKENING SO THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME BRIEF FOG WILL
FORM 12Z-16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN N-NE 1-4 KT THIS MORNING AND
3-6 KT THIS AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS
ARE PRETTY CLOSE...BUT SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE OTHERS SHOW LOW END SCA WINDS.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONT ON MONDAY. ECMWF
HAS TRENDED WEAKER OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER. THE GFS NOW HAS THE POST-FRONTAL W FLOW A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH BOTH ARE IN THE SCA RANGE. THE
00Z ECMWF SHOWS A SMALL 1009 MB SURFACE LOW FORMING BRIEFLY JUST
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS CAPE FLATTERY. THE 00Z GFS HAS A 1005
MB LOW. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 301120
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND
SOME FOG MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S AT 3 AM/11Z.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER IS
SHALLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORNING BREAKOUT IN THE LOCATIONS WERE
FOG FORMED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH 50S COMMON.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING BACK TO NEAR 130W.
SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAINING LIGHT OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
COLDER SPOTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT PATCHY FOG FROM FORMING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING APPROACHING THE COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
STILL WEST OF 130W BY 00Z SUNDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES LOWERING A BIT
OFFSHORE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY VERSUS FRIDAYS READINGS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH COAST...INTO
THE LOWER 60S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 50S WILL BE COMMON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT INSIDE 130W BY 12Z SUNDAY ON THE GFS AND NAM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT STILL OUT AROUND 130W. RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST STARTING TO REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS BY 12Z SO WILL STAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE RAIN
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY. THE FASTER NAM/GFS
SOLUTION HAS THE FRONT AT LEAST INTO THE CASCADES BY 00Z MONDAY
WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STILL HAS THE FRONT OFFSHORE AT 00Z MONDAY.
ALL OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWLANDS BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 50
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
WITH THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON MONDAY KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. BEYOND MONDAY
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE ECMWF WHICH ON THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT
WAS BRINGING A WARM FRONT INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NOW HAS
THE PRECIP AIMED AT OREGON WITH A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS ALSO HAS THE PRECIPITATION GOING INTO OREGON WITH A
LITTLE BIT MORE RIDGE OFF THE COAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. THERE IS A
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH MORE CONSOLIDATED ON
THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS RUNS. EVEN WITH THIS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE RUNS WITH THIS SOLUTION BEFORE GOING WITH
A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL STAY
WITH THE CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE POPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBLE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PACNW TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER E WA WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND
STABLE WITH ONLY LOCAL SURFACE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND
STRATUS.

THE RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. AREAS
OF FOG ARE FORMING OVER THE SW INTERIOR AN S PUGET SOUND WITH PATCHY
FOG ELSEWHERE. THE MORE PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS OVER THE S PART
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY WITH PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE CLEARING A LITTLE
EARLIER.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK MIXING
FROM N WINDS SEEMS TO HAVE HELD THE FOG AT BAY...BUT THE N WIND IS
WEAKENING SO THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME BRIEF FOG WILL
FORM 12Z-16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN N-NE 1-4 KT THIS MORNING AND
3-6 KT THIS AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS
ARE PRETTY CLOSE...BUT SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE OTHERS SHOW LOW END SCA WINDS.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONT ON MONDAY. ECMWF
HAS TRENDED WEAKER OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER. THE GFS NOW HAS THE POST-FRONTAL W FLOW A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH BOTH ARE IN THE SCA RANGE. THE
00Z ECMWF SHOWS A SMALL 1009 MB SURFACE LOW FORMING BRIEFLY JUST
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS CAPE FLATTERY. THE 00Z GFS HAS A 1005
MB LOW. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 301120
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND
SOME FOG MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S AT 3 AM/11Z.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER IS
SHALLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORNING BREAKOUT IN THE LOCATIONS WERE
FOG FORMED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH 50S COMMON.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING BACK TO NEAR 130W.
SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAINING LIGHT OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
COLDER SPOTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT PATCHY FOG FROM FORMING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING APPROACHING THE COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
STILL WEST OF 130W BY 00Z SUNDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES LOWERING A BIT
OFFSHORE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY VERSUS FRIDAYS READINGS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH COAST...INTO
THE LOWER 60S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 50S WILL BE COMMON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT INSIDE 130W BY 12Z SUNDAY ON THE GFS AND NAM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT STILL OUT AROUND 130W. RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST STARTING TO REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS BY 12Z SO WILL STAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE RAIN
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY. THE FASTER NAM/GFS
SOLUTION HAS THE FRONT AT LEAST INTO THE CASCADES BY 00Z MONDAY
WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STILL HAS THE FRONT OFFSHORE AT 00Z MONDAY.
ALL OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWLANDS BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 50
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED
WITH THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON MONDAY KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. BEYOND MONDAY
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE ECMWF WHICH ON THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT
WAS BRINGING A WARM FRONT INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NOW HAS
THE PRECIP AIMED AT OREGON WITH A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS ALSO HAS THE PRECIPITATION GOING INTO OREGON WITH A
LITTLE BIT MORE RIDGE OFF THE COAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. THERE IS A
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH MORE CONSOLIDATED ON
THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS RUNS. EVEN WITH THIS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE RUNS WITH THIS SOLUTION BEFORE GOING WITH
A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL STAY
WITH THE CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE POPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBLE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PACNW TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER E WA WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND
STABLE WITH ONLY LOCAL SURFACE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND
STRATUS.

THE RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. AREAS
OF FOG ARE FORMING OVER THE SW INTERIOR AN S PUGET SOUND WITH PATCHY
FOG ELSEWHERE. THE MORE PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS OVER THE S PART
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY WITH PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE CLEARING A LITTLE
EARLIER.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK MIXING
FROM N WINDS SEEMS TO HAVE HELD THE FOG AT BAY...BUT THE N WIND IS
WEAKENING SO THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME BRIEF FOG WILL
FORM 12Z-16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN N-NE 1-4 KT THIS MORNING AND
3-6 KT THIS AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS
ARE PRETTY CLOSE...BUT SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE OTHERS SHOW LOW END SCA WINDS.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONT ON MONDAY. ECMWF
HAS TRENDED WEAKER OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER. THE GFS NOW HAS THE POST-FRONTAL W FLOW A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH BOTH ARE IN THE SCA RANGE. THE
00Z ECMWF SHOWS A SMALL 1009 MB SURFACE LOW FORMING BRIEFLY JUST
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS CAPE FLATTERY. THE 00Z GFS HAS A 1005
MB LOW. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KPQR 301051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
236 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS..BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES...AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND EAST WINDS
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. A WETTER
STORM SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT
CASCADE PASS LEVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN SCAPPOOSE AND LONGVIEW/CASTLE ROCK. A
WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE GENERATING JUST ENOUGH
MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...ASIDE FROM THE HILLSBORO AREA. DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CHANGE
GOING FORWARD SO THE FOG COVERAGE WORDING WAS TRIMMED TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

A RELATIVELY DEEP COLD POOL AND ACCOMPANYING STRATUS DECK LIE EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A 6 TO 7MB CROSS CASCADE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ALLOWED EAST WINDS TO BLOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INCREASE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS AND EC GENERALLY AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL FLATTEN ON SUNDAY...AND ALLOW A WEAKENING FRONT TO BRING A SHOT
OF RAIN TO THE AREA. CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND IN POPS AND QPF AS A
RESULT. MODELS ALSO FINALLY SEEM TO BE AGREEING THAT AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
BRING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL ROUND OF RAIN MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
THOUGH. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE IDEA THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY. INSTEAD...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING EASTWARD
IN THE ZONAL PATTERN MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN
MIDWEEK...BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING
OF THESE SYSTEMS REMAIN. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT IN
THE CHANCE RANGE MIDWEEK. EITHER WAY...THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY WARM SO SUBSTANTIAL CASCADE SNOWS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS MAY END UP BEING A TOUCH LOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING COULD ALLOW HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS TO FALL DEPENDING ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS PLAY OUT. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL ARRIVE
LATER IN THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY HIGH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HELP OUR PITIFUL
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. /NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND HAS LOCKED KEUG IN
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS FOR THE MORNING. DENSE FOG BANK IS
SETTLING IN ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...KEEPING KSLE VFR. IF FOG DOES FILL IN
WESTWARD...IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE PATCHY ON THIS SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THIS MEANS IF FOG DOES DEVELOP AT KSLE...CIGS AND VIS WILL
LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR BEFORE IT BURNS OFF BY 18-20Z.
FOG OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL AGAIN BE PATCHY AS EAST
WIND OUT OF THE GORGE KEEPS SOME AREAS CLEAR...MAINLY ON THE EAST
SITE SUCH AS KTTD...WHILE AREAS MORE PROTECTED FROM EASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP FOG BRINGING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. EAST WINDS
ARE WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT...THOUGH...AND DON`T APPEAR TO BE
MAKING TO TO KPDX. IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME FOG CREEPING
EASTWARD UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER FROM KELSO...WHICH COULD BRING CIGS
AND VIS DOWN AT KPDX TO IFR/LIFR BY 12-14Z IF WINDS REMAIN CALM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING SOME FOG CREEPING EASTWARD UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER FROM
KELSO...WHICH COULD BRING FOG INTO PDX AROUND 13Z. EAST WINDS
FROM THE GORGE DON`T APPEAR LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO PDX THIS
MORNING...SO CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THIS FOG TO MAKE IT TO
PDX. THIS WOULD LOWER CIGS AND VIS TO IFR/LIFR AROUND 13Z. FOG
SHOULD LIFT BY 18Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KTS OVER
THE WATERS TO OUR SOUTH...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS ARE
STAYING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
NEAR 20 MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM VEERS WINDS TO THE EAST WITH ITS APPROACH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THIS
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS JUST BELOW 20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WINDS
LOOK TO INCREASE TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS THIS SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. POST-FRONT
WESTERLIES WILL STAY UP AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...STARTING TO DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 10
KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 6 TO 7 FT AND FALLING. SEAS COULD DROP
AS LOW AS 4 FT BEFORE THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SEAS BACK
UP TO AROUND 6-7 FT EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6-7 FT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUILD TO NEAR 10 FT BY EARLY
MONDAY. SEAS LOOK TO STAY AROUND 10 FT WITH THE SECOND FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...FINALLY DROPPING BACK BELOW 10
FT BY TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 301050
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet weather will prevail during
this period...but there is a subtle feature which will approach
later tonight into early Saturday which could deliver some
weather. For today the weather will be about as mundane as weather
can get during this time of year in the Inland Northwest. Upper
level high pressure will once again remain fixed over the region
with the jet stream poised over central BC. Meanwhile a fairly
broad area of high pressure will reside near the ground resulting
in very light winds and hence very poor mixing potential. This
suggests the fog and stratus currently over most elevations below
3500 feet per the latest fog product will persist longer into the
day. For locations west of a line from Colville to Pullman...the
odds of the clouds breaking up are rather slim as the stratus
there is most likely thicker than the deck east of this area. This
was the approximate line which delineated the clearing line late
yesterday afternoon. East of the line the prospects of a breakup
are a little better...since we suspect the deck is shallower
however confidence is far from good. This area was subject to
rapid fog development during the evening and much of it was dense.
Lately though the fog has been lifting across the Idaho Panhandle
and even the Spokane Valley into the Coeur d`Alene area. We
currently have a dense fog advisory in effect for a large portion
of the Idaho Panhandle and across the eastern quarter of
Washington, however if this lifting trend continues we will have
to drop a good portion of them.

For tonight and into early Saturday the weather gets a little more
"exciting". This excitement will be in response to a shortwave
trough currently situated near 50n/130w. All models are doing well
with its placement compared to satellite and all take the feature
through BC today before diving it southeast into NW Montana late
tonight into early Saturday. Deep moisture won`t likely accompany
this feature...however it will likely induce some weak upward
motion through the ever-present low-level cloud deck. This will
likely provide the impetus for some drizzle (or possibly flurries)
across far eastern Washington and much of the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will be close to freezing so we would likely see a
mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle. Roads could get slick but
confidence in drizzle forecasts is quite low so will cover
situation via social media rather than a weather highlight. The
threat of drizzle and freezing drizzle should wane rapidly during
the afternoon as the shortwave trough shears apart into northern
Wyoming and lowers the ascent through the saturated boundary
layer. fx

Saturday night through Thursday: The region transitions to a
wetter pattern. The system that christens the transition, a
organized frontal wave, makes its way in with a subtropical
moisture tap Sunday. Strengthening isentropic ascent with the
leading warm front and that deepening moisture will lead to
increasing precipitation chances. Some of that lift/moisture combo
starts into the Cascades and northern mountains Saturday night
late, but the stronger threat and more likely precipitation comes
in between Sunday and Sunday night.

* Precipitation-type: On Sunday morning light snow accumulations will
  be possible down to the valley floors, largely away from the
  deeper Basin to lower Palouse and L-C Valley. By Sunday
  afternoon and evening the snow threat in the valleys retreats
  north of Highway 2, though some snow may still mix with the rain
  threat about the southern hills around the Spokane/C`dA area.
  And where snow may continue in the northern valleys
  accumulations may be limited with the heating of the day.

* Snow amounts: light to moderate snow accumulation are possible
  in the mountains above about 3000 to 4000 feet. Here some 2 to 5
  inches are possible between from Sunday morning to Monday
  morning, with local amounts near 8. This may impact locations
  such as Lookout Pass, Sherman Pass and Stevens Pass.
  Accumulations about the valleys are expected to be lighter. The
  Cascade valleys, north of Lake Chelan, and northeast WA and
  north ID valleys could see 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts
  near 3 inches. Other areas such as the Waterville Plateau to the
  Spokane/C`dA area, and the higher Palouse (north of Pullman)
  could see anywhere from a trace to a half inch, with isolated
  amounts to 1 inch.

On Monday a second wave comes in and keeps the precipitation
threat high, at least away from the lee of the Cascades and
deeper Columbia Basin. Current timing suggests the higher threat
with this second wave comes in Monday afternoon and evening,
though the threat may not really end across the central Panhandle
Mountains after Sunday`s system. By this time snow levels look a
bit higher, between 2.5 and 5.0kft, lowest toward the northern
mountains. So more of valley rain and mountain snow event is
projected. However a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out along and
north of highway 2 in the morning and night hours.

From Tuesday to Thursday the region remains in a more progressive
pattern, with the passage of occasional shortwaves with
intermittent wet and dry periods. Through the period the highest
threat will be in the windward facing slopes, i.e. the Cascade
crest and the northeast WA and ID panhandle mountains.
Occasionally the threat will ramp up across the valleys and basin
areas, tied to the precise timing of those waves. However model
consistency on that point is poor. Loose agreement suggests a
drier period between Tuesday and Wednesday, or at least a shift of
the higher precipitation threat toward the WA/OR border and lower
Panhandle southward, before the threat rises again toward
Thursday. Look for a continued valley rain and mountain snow
threat during the day, with a possible rain/snow mix in the
valleys during the night and morning hours. /J Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Freezing fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly
KLWS while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements possible Friday afternoon with the highest
probabilities btwn KLWS/KPUW but the overall chances appear slim
in comparison to Thursday afternoon. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  30  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  31  39  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        39  31  44  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  33  47  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       40  32  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      36  30  36  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        39  30  39  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  32  40  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      39  32  39  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           36  32  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301050
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet weather will prevail during
this period...but there is a subtle feature which will approach
later tonight into early Saturday which could deliver some
weather. For today the weather will be about as mundane as weather
can get during this time of year in the Inland Northwest. Upper
level high pressure will once again remain fixed over the region
with the jet stream poised over central BC. Meanwhile a fairly
broad area of high pressure will reside near the ground resulting
in very light winds and hence very poor mixing potential. This
suggests the fog and stratus currently over most elevations below
3500 feet per the latest fog product will persist longer into the
day. For locations west of a line from Colville to Pullman...the
odds of the clouds breaking up are rather slim as the stratus
there is most likely thicker than the deck east of this area. This
was the approximate line which delineated the clearing line late
yesterday afternoon. East of the line the prospects of a breakup
are a little better...since we suspect the deck is shallower
however confidence is far from good. This area was subject to
rapid fog development during the evening and much of it was dense.
Lately though the fog has been lifting across the Idaho Panhandle
and even the Spokane Valley into the Coeur d`Alene area. We
currently have a dense fog advisory in effect for a large portion
of the Idaho Panhandle and across the eastern quarter of
Washington, however if this lifting trend continues we will have
to drop a good portion of them.

For tonight and into early Saturday the weather gets a little more
"exciting". This excitement will be in response to a shortwave
trough currently situated near 50n/130w. All models are doing well
with its placement compared to satellite and all take the feature
through BC today before diving it southeast into NW Montana late
tonight into early Saturday. Deep moisture won`t likely accompany
this feature...however it will likely induce some weak upward
motion through the ever-present low-level cloud deck. This will
likely provide the impetus for some drizzle (or possibly flurries)
across far eastern Washington and much of the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will be close to freezing so we would likely see a
mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle. Roads could get slick but
confidence in drizzle forecasts is quite low so will cover
situation via social media rather than a weather highlight. The
threat of drizzle and freezing drizzle should wane rapidly during
the afternoon as the shortwave trough shears apart into northern
Wyoming and lowers the ascent through the saturated boundary
layer. fx

Saturday night through Thursday: The region transitions to a
wetter pattern. The system that christens the transition, a
organized frontal wave, makes its way in with a subtropical
moisture tap Sunday. Strengthening isentropic ascent with the
leading warm front and that deepening moisture will lead to
increasing precipitation chances. Some of that lift/moisture combo
starts into the Cascades and northern mountains Saturday night
late, but the stronger threat and more likely precipitation comes
in between Sunday and Sunday night.

* Precipitation-type: On Sunday morning light snow accumulations will
  be possible down to the valley floors, largely away from the
  deeper Basin to lower Palouse and L-C Valley. By Sunday
  afternoon and evening the snow threat in the valleys retreats
  north of Highway 2, though some snow may still mix with the rain
  threat about the southern hills around the Spokane/C`dA area.
  And where snow may continue in the northern valleys
  accumulations may be limited with the heating of the day.

* Snow amounts: light to moderate snow accumulation are possible
  in the mountains above about 3000 to 4000 feet. Here some 2 to 5
  inches are possible between from Sunday morning to Monday
  morning, with local amounts near 8. This may impact locations
  such as Lookout Pass, Sherman Pass and Stevens Pass.
  Accumulations about the valleys are expected to be lighter. The
  Cascade valleys, north of Lake Chelan, and northeast WA and
  north ID valleys could see 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts
  near 3 inches. Other areas such as the Waterville Plateau to the
  Spokane/C`dA area, and the higher Palouse (north of Pullman)
  could see anywhere from a trace to a half inch, with isolated
  amounts to 1 inch.

On Monday a second wave comes in and keeps the precipitation
threat high, at least away from the lee of the Cascades and
deeper Columbia Basin. Current timing suggests the higher threat
with this second wave comes in Monday afternoon and evening,
though the threat may not really end across the central Panhandle
Mountains after Sunday`s system. By this time snow levels look a
bit higher, between 2.5 and 5.0kft, lowest toward the northern
mountains. So more of valley rain and mountain snow event is
projected. However a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out along and
north of highway 2 in the morning and night hours.

From Tuesday to Thursday the region remains in a more progressive
pattern, with the passage of occasional shortwaves with
intermittent wet and dry periods. Through the period the highest
threat will be in the windward facing slopes, i.e. the Cascade
crest and the northeast WA and ID panhandle mountains.
Occasionally the threat will ramp up across the valleys and basin
areas, tied to the precise timing of those waves. However model
consistency on that point is poor. Loose agreement suggests a
drier period between Tuesday and Wednesday, or at least a shift of
the higher precipitation threat toward the WA/OR border and lower
Panhandle southward, before the threat rises again toward
Thursday. Look for a continued valley rain and mountain snow
threat during the day, with a possible rain/snow mix in the
valleys during the night and morning hours. /J Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Freezing fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly
KLWS while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements possible Friday afternoon with the highest
probabilities btwn KLWS/KPUW but the overall chances appear slim
in comparison to Thursday afternoon. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  30  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  31  39  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        39  31  44  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  33  47  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       40  32  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      36  30  36  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        39  30  39  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  32  40  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      39  32  39  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           36  32  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301050
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet weather will prevail during
this period...but there is a subtle feature which will approach
later tonight into early Saturday which could deliver some
weather. For today the weather will be about as mundane as weather
can get during this time of year in the Inland Northwest. Upper
level high pressure will once again remain fixed over the region
with the jet stream poised over central BC. Meanwhile a fairly
broad area of high pressure will reside near the ground resulting
in very light winds and hence very poor mixing potential. This
suggests the fog and stratus currently over most elevations below
3500 feet per the latest fog product will persist longer into the
day. For locations west of a line from Colville to Pullman...the
odds of the clouds breaking up are rather slim as the stratus
there is most likely thicker than the deck east of this area. This
was the approximate line which delineated the clearing line late
yesterday afternoon. East of the line the prospects of a breakup
are a little better...since we suspect the deck is shallower
however confidence is far from good. This area was subject to
rapid fog development during the evening and much of it was dense.
Lately though the fog has been lifting across the Idaho Panhandle
and even the Spokane Valley into the Coeur d`Alene area. We
currently have a dense fog advisory in effect for a large portion
of the Idaho Panhandle and across the eastern quarter of
Washington, however if this lifting trend continues we will have
to drop a good portion of them.

For tonight and into early Saturday the weather gets a little more
"exciting". This excitement will be in response to a shortwave
trough currently situated near 50n/130w. All models are doing well
with its placement compared to satellite and all take the feature
through BC today before diving it southeast into NW Montana late
tonight into early Saturday. Deep moisture won`t likely accompany
this feature...however it will likely induce some weak upward
motion through the ever-present low-level cloud deck. This will
likely provide the impetus for some drizzle (or possibly flurries)
across far eastern Washington and much of the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will be close to freezing so we would likely see a
mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle. Roads could get slick but
confidence in drizzle forecasts is quite low so will cover
situation via social media rather than a weather highlight. The
threat of drizzle and freezing drizzle should wane rapidly during
the afternoon as the shortwave trough shears apart into northern
Wyoming and lowers the ascent through the saturated boundary
layer. fx

Saturday night through Thursday: The region transitions to a
wetter pattern. The system that christens the transition, a
organized frontal wave, makes its way in with a subtropical
moisture tap Sunday. Strengthening isentropic ascent with the
leading warm front and that deepening moisture will lead to
increasing precipitation chances. Some of that lift/moisture combo
starts into the Cascades and northern mountains Saturday night
late, but the stronger threat and more likely precipitation comes
in between Sunday and Sunday night.

* Precipitation-type: On Sunday morning light snow accumulations will
  be possible down to the valley floors, largely away from the
  deeper Basin to lower Palouse and L-C Valley. By Sunday
  afternoon and evening the snow threat in the valleys retreats
  north of Highway 2, though some snow may still mix with the rain
  threat about the southern hills around the Spokane/C`dA area.
  And where snow may continue in the northern valleys
  accumulations may be limited with the heating of the day.

* Snow amounts: light to moderate snow accumulation are possible
  in the mountains above about 3000 to 4000 feet. Here some 2 to 5
  inches are possible between from Sunday morning to Monday
  morning, with local amounts near 8. This may impact locations
  such as Lookout Pass, Sherman Pass and Stevens Pass.
  Accumulations about the valleys are expected to be lighter. The
  Cascade valleys, north of Lake Chelan, and northeast WA and
  north ID valleys could see 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts
  near 3 inches. Other areas such as the Waterville Plateau to the
  Spokane/C`dA area, and the higher Palouse (north of Pullman)
  could see anywhere from a trace to a half inch, with isolated
  amounts to 1 inch.

On Monday a second wave comes in and keeps the precipitation
threat high, at least away from the lee of the Cascades and
deeper Columbia Basin. Current timing suggests the higher threat
with this second wave comes in Monday afternoon and evening,
though the threat may not really end across the central Panhandle
Mountains after Sunday`s system. By this time snow levels look a
bit higher, between 2.5 and 5.0kft, lowest toward the northern
mountains. So more of valley rain and mountain snow event is
projected. However a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out along and
north of highway 2 in the morning and night hours.

From Tuesday to Thursday the region remains in a more progressive
pattern, with the passage of occasional shortwaves with
intermittent wet and dry periods. Through the period the highest
threat will be in the windward facing slopes, i.e. the Cascade
crest and the northeast WA and ID panhandle mountains.
Occasionally the threat will ramp up across the valleys and basin
areas, tied to the precise timing of those waves. However model
consistency on that point is poor. Loose agreement suggests a
drier period between Tuesday and Wednesday, or at least a shift of
the higher precipitation threat toward the WA/OR border and lower
Panhandle southward, before the threat rises again toward
Thursday. Look for a continued valley rain and mountain snow
threat during the day, with a possible rain/snow mix in the
valleys during the night and morning hours. /J Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Freezing fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly
KLWS while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements possible Friday afternoon with the highest
probabilities btwn KLWS/KPUW but the overall chances appear slim
in comparison to Thursday afternoon. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  30  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  31  39  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        39  31  44  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  33  47  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       40  32  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      36  30  36  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        39  30  39  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  32  40  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      39  32  39  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           36  32  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301050
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet weather will prevail during
this period...but there is a subtle feature which will approach
later tonight into early Saturday which could deliver some
weather. For today the weather will be about as mundane as weather
can get during this time of year in the Inland Northwest. Upper
level high pressure will once again remain fixed over the region
with the jet stream poised over central BC. Meanwhile a fairly
broad area of high pressure will reside near the ground resulting
in very light winds and hence very poor mixing potential. This
suggests the fog and stratus currently over most elevations below
3500 feet per the latest fog product will persist longer into the
day. For locations west of a line from Colville to Pullman...the
odds of the clouds breaking up are rather slim as the stratus
there is most likely thicker than the deck east of this area. This
was the approximate line which delineated the clearing line late
yesterday afternoon. East of the line the prospects of a breakup
are a little better...since we suspect the deck is shallower
however confidence is far from good. This area was subject to
rapid fog development during the evening and much of it was dense.
Lately though the fog has been lifting across the Idaho Panhandle
and even the Spokane Valley into the Coeur d`Alene area. We
currently have a dense fog advisory in effect for a large portion
of the Idaho Panhandle and across the eastern quarter of
Washington, however if this lifting trend continues we will have
to drop a good portion of them.

For tonight and into early Saturday the weather gets a little more
"exciting". This excitement will be in response to a shortwave
trough currently situated near 50n/130w. All models are doing well
with its placement compared to satellite and all take the feature
through BC today before diving it southeast into NW Montana late
tonight into early Saturday. Deep moisture won`t likely accompany
this feature...however it will likely induce some weak upward
motion through the ever-present low-level cloud deck. This will
likely provide the impetus for some drizzle (or possibly flurries)
across far eastern Washington and much of the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will be close to freezing so we would likely see a
mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle. Roads could get slick but
confidence in drizzle forecasts is quite low so will cover
situation via social media rather than a weather highlight. The
threat of drizzle and freezing drizzle should wane rapidly during
the afternoon as the shortwave trough shears apart into northern
Wyoming and lowers the ascent through the saturated boundary
layer. fx

Saturday night through Thursday: The region transitions to a
wetter pattern. The system that christens the transition, a
organized frontal wave, makes its way in with a subtropical
moisture tap Sunday. Strengthening isentropic ascent with the
leading warm front and that deepening moisture will lead to
increasing precipitation chances. Some of that lift/moisture combo
starts into the Cascades and northern mountains Saturday night
late, but the stronger threat and more likely precipitation comes
in between Sunday and Sunday night.

* Precipitation-type: On Sunday morning light snow accumulations will
  be possible down to the valley floors, largely away from the
  deeper Basin to lower Palouse and L-C Valley. By Sunday
  afternoon and evening the snow threat in the valleys retreats
  north of Highway 2, though some snow may still mix with the rain
  threat about the southern hills around the Spokane/C`dA area.
  And where snow may continue in the northern valleys
  accumulations may be limited with the heating of the day.

* Snow amounts: light to moderate snow accumulation are possible
  in the mountains above about 3000 to 4000 feet. Here some 2 to 5
  inches are possible between from Sunday morning to Monday
  morning, with local amounts near 8. This may impact locations
  such as Lookout Pass, Sherman Pass and Stevens Pass.
  Accumulations about the valleys are expected to be lighter. The
  Cascade valleys, north of Lake Chelan, and northeast WA and
  north ID valleys could see 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts
  near 3 inches. Other areas such as the Waterville Plateau to the
  Spokane/C`dA area, and the higher Palouse (north of Pullman)
  could see anywhere from a trace to a half inch, with isolated
  amounts to 1 inch.

On Monday a second wave comes in and keeps the precipitation
threat high, at least away from the lee of the Cascades and
deeper Columbia Basin. Current timing suggests the higher threat
with this second wave comes in Monday afternoon and evening,
though the threat may not really end across the central Panhandle
Mountains after Sunday`s system. By this time snow levels look a
bit higher, between 2.5 and 5.0kft, lowest toward the northern
mountains. So more of valley rain and mountain snow event is
projected. However a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out along and
north of highway 2 in the morning and night hours.

From Tuesday to Thursday the region remains in a more progressive
pattern, with the passage of occasional shortwaves with
intermittent wet and dry periods. Through the period the highest
threat will be in the windward facing slopes, i.e. the Cascade
crest and the northeast WA and ID panhandle mountains.
Occasionally the threat will ramp up across the valleys and basin
areas, tied to the precise timing of those waves. However model
consistency on that point is poor. Loose agreement suggests a
drier period between Tuesday and Wednesday, or at least a shift of
the higher precipitation threat toward the WA/OR border and lower
Panhandle southward, before the threat rises again toward
Thursday. Look for a continued valley rain and mountain snow
threat during the day, with a possible rain/snow mix in the
valleys during the night and morning hours. /J Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Freezing fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly
KLWS while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements possible Friday afternoon with the highest
probabilities btwn KLWS/KPUW but the overall chances appear slim
in comparison to Thursday afternoon. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  30  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  31  39  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        39  31  44  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  33  47  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       40  32  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      36  30  36  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        39  30  39  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  32  40  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      39  32  39  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           36  32  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301050
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet weather will prevail during
this period...but there is a subtle feature which will approach
later tonight into early Saturday which could deliver some
weather. For today the weather will be about as mundane as weather
can get during this time of year in the Inland Northwest. Upper
level high pressure will once again remain fixed over the region
with the jet stream poised over central BC. Meanwhile a fairly
broad area of high pressure will reside near the ground resulting
in very light winds and hence very poor mixing potential. This
suggests the fog and stratus currently over most elevations below
3500 feet per the latest fog product will persist longer into the
day. For locations west of a line from Colville to Pullman...the
odds of the clouds breaking up are rather slim as the stratus
there is most likely thicker than the deck east of this area. This
was the approximate line which delineated the clearing line late
yesterday afternoon. East of the line the prospects of a breakup
are a little better...since we suspect the deck is shallower
however confidence is far from good. This area was subject to
rapid fog development during the evening and much of it was dense.
Lately though the fog has been lifting across the Idaho Panhandle
and even the Spokane Valley into the Coeur d`Alene area. We
currently have a dense fog advisory in effect for a large portion
of the Idaho Panhandle and across the eastern quarter of
Washington, however if this lifting trend continues we will have
to drop a good portion of them.

For tonight and into early Saturday the weather gets a little more
"exciting". This excitement will be in response to a shortwave
trough currently situated near 50n/130w. All models are doing well
with its placement compared to satellite and all take the feature
through BC today before diving it southeast into NW Montana late
tonight into early Saturday. Deep moisture won`t likely accompany
this feature...however it will likely induce some weak upward
motion through the ever-present low-level cloud deck. This will
likely provide the impetus for some drizzle (or possibly flurries)
across far eastern Washington and much of the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures will be close to freezing so we would likely see a
mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle. Roads could get slick but
confidence in drizzle forecasts is quite low so will cover
situation via social media rather than a weather highlight. The
threat of drizzle and freezing drizzle should wane rapidly during
the afternoon as the shortwave trough shears apart into northern
Wyoming and lowers the ascent through the saturated boundary
layer. fx

Saturday night through Thursday: The region transitions to a
wetter pattern. The system that christens the transition, a
organized frontal wave, makes its way in with a subtropical
moisture tap Sunday. Strengthening isentropic ascent with the
leading warm front and that deepening moisture will lead to
increasing precipitation chances. Some of that lift/moisture combo
starts into the Cascades and northern mountains Saturday night
late, but the stronger threat and more likely precipitation comes
in between Sunday and Sunday night.

* Precipitation-type: On Sunday morning light snow accumulations will
  be possible down to the valley floors, largely away from the
  deeper Basin to lower Palouse and L-C Valley. By Sunday
  afternoon and evening the snow threat in the valleys retreats
  north of Highway 2, though some snow may still mix with the rain
  threat about the southern hills around the Spokane/C`dA area.
  And where snow may continue in the northern valleys
  accumulations may be limited with the heating of the day.

* Snow amounts: light to moderate snow accumulation are possible
  in the mountains above about 3000 to 4000 feet. Here some 2 to 5
  inches are possible between from Sunday morning to Monday
  morning, with local amounts near 8. This may impact locations
  such as Lookout Pass, Sherman Pass and Stevens Pass.
  Accumulations about the valleys are expected to be lighter. The
  Cascade valleys, north of Lake Chelan, and northeast WA and
  north ID valleys could see 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts
  near 3 inches. Other areas such as the Waterville Plateau to the
  Spokane/C`dA area, and the higher Palouse (north of Pullman)
  could see anywhere from a trace to a half inch, with isolated
  amounts to 1 inch.

On Monday a second wave comes in and keeps the precipitation
threat high, at least away from the lee of the Cascades and
deeper Columbia Basin. Current timing suggests the higher threat
with this second wave comes in Monday afternoon and evening,
though the threat may not really end across the central Panhandle
Mountains after Sunday`s system. By this time snow levels look a
bit higher, between 2.5 and 5.0kft, lowest toward the northern
mountains. So more of valley rain and mountain snow event is
projected. However a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out along and
north of highway 2 in the morning and night hours.

From Tuesday to Thursday the region remains in a more progressive
pattern, with the passage of occasional shortwaves with
intermittent wet and dry periods. Through the period the highest
threat will be in the windward facing slopes, i.e. the Cascade
crest and the northeast WA and ID panhandle mountains.
Occasionally the threat will ramp up across the valleys and basin
areas, tied to the precise timing of those waves. However model
consistency on that point is poor. Loose agreement suggests a
drier period between Tuesday and Wednesday, or at least a shift of
the higher precipitation threat toward the WA/OR border and lower
Panhandle southward, before the threat rises again toward
Thursday. Look for a continued valley rain and mountain snow
threat during the day, with a possible rain/snow mix in the
valleys during the night and morning hours. /J Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Freezing fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly
KLWS while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements possible Friday afternoon with the highest
probabilities btwn KLWS/KPUW but the overall chances appear slim
in comparison to Thursday afternoon. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  30  37  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  31  39  29  37  32 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Pullman        39  31  44  33  42  37 /   0  10  10  10  60  60
Lewiston       42  33  47  34  46  38 /   0  10  10  10  40  50
Colville       40  32  36  29  36  31 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Sandpoint      36  30  36  27  36  30 /   0  10  10  20  70  70
Kellogg        39  30  39  29  37  33 /   0  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     39  32  40  30  40  32 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Wenatchee      39  32  39  30  40  33 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Omak           36  32  36  30  38  31 /   0   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
956 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog advisories have been issued for a majority of Eastern WA
and Nrn Idaho including most valleys in Washington stretching from
Pend Oreille to Whitman counties and in Idaho, the US95 corridor.
Fog continues to thicken this evening under clear skies. I
anticipate with light winds and clear skies persisting overnight,
most locations will be dealing with visibilities at or below a quarter
mile by the Friday morning commute. In addition, temperatures have
dipped into the mid to upper 20s which is likely to produce slick
roadways.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Freezing fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly
KLWS while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements possible Friday afternoon with the highest
probabilities btwn KLWS/KPUW but the overall chances appear slim
in comparison to Thursday afternoon. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  36  30  37  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  25  39  31  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  60
Pullman        31  39  31  44  34  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       32  42  33  47  35  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Colville       32  40  32  36  30  35 /   0   0  10  10  20  60
Sandpoint      26  36  30  36  28  34 /   0   0  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        28  39  30  39  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  70
Moses Lake     32  39  32  40  32  39 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      32  39  32  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           31  36  32  36  31  38 /   0   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for Northeast Mountains-
     Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 300556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
956 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog advisories have been issued for a majority of Eastern WA
and Nrn Idaho including most valleys in Washington stretching from
Pend Oreille to Whitman counties and in Idaho, the US95 corridor.
Fog continues to thicken this evening under clear skies. I
anticipate with light winds and clear skies persisting overnight,
most locations will be dealing with visibilities at or below a quarter
mile by the Friday morning commute. In addition, temperatures have
dipped into the mid to upper 20s which is likely to produce slick
roadways.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Freezing fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly
KLWS while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements possible Friday afternoon with the highest
probabilities btwn KLWS/KPUW but the overall chances appear slim
in comparison to Thursday afternoon. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  36  30  37  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  25  39  31  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  60
Pullman        31  39  31  44  34  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       32  42  33  47  35  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Colville       32  40  32  36  30  35 /   0   0  10  10  20  60
Sandpoint      26  36  30  36  28  34 /   0   0  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        28  39  30  39  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  70
Moses Lake     32  39  32  40  32  39 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      32  39  32  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           31  36  32  36  31  38 /   0   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for Northeast Mountains-
     Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 300556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
956 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog advisories have been issued for a majority of Eastern WA
and Nrn Idaho including most valleys in Washington stretching from
Pend Oreille to Whitman counties and in Idaho, the US95 corridor.
Fog continues to thicken this evening under clear skies. I
anticipate with light winds and clear skies persisting overnight,
most locations will be dealing with visibilities at or below a quarter
mile by the Friday morning commute. In addition, temperatures have
dipped into the mid to upper 20s which is likely to produce slick
roadways.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Freezing fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly
KLWS while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements possible Friday afternoon with the highest
probabilities btwn KLWS/KPUW but the overall chances appear slim
in comparison to Thursday afternoon. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  36  30  37  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  25  39  31  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  60
Pullman        31  39  31  44  34  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       32  42  33  47  35  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Colville       32  40  32  36  30  35 /   0   0  10  10  20  60
Sandpoint      26  36  30  36  28  34 /   0   0  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        28  39  30  39  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  70
Moses Lake     32  39  32  40  32  39 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      32  39  32  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           31  36  32  36  31  38 /   0   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for Northeast Mountains-
     Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 300556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
956 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog advisories have been issued for a majority of Eastern WA
and Nrn Idaho including most valleys in Washington stretching from
Pend Oreille to Whitman counties and in Idaho, the US95 corridor.
Fog continues to thicken this evening under clear skies. I
anticipate with light winds and clear skies persisting overnight,
most locations will be dealing with visibilities at or below a quarter
mile by the Friday morning commute. In addition, temperatures have
dipped into the mid to upper 20s which is likely to produce slick
roadways.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light winds and clear skies aloft will continue to bring
widespread restrictions from fog and stratus through the next 24
hours. Freezing fog will impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly
KLWS while KEAT/KMWH will largely contend with stratus. Minor
improvements possible Friday afternoon with the highest
probabilities btwn KLWS/KPUW but the overall chances appear slim
in comparison to Thursday afternoon. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  36  30  37  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  25  39  31  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  60
Pullman        31  39  31  44  34  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       32  42  33  47  35  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Colville       32  40  32  36  30  35 /   0   0  10  10  20  60
Sandpoint      26  36  30  36  28  34 /   0   0  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        28  39  30  39  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  70
Moses Lake     32  39  32  40  32  39 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      32  39  32  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           31  36  32  36  31  38 /   0   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for Northeast Mountains-
     Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300508
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR MILD AND DRY
WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF
FOG FORMATION BENEATH A STRENGTHENING TEMPERATURE INVERSION.
MODERATE EASTERLY GRADIENTS ALONG THE GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF EAST WINDS AND DISRUPT THE FOG SOME AROUND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND GIVE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS IN
THE VALLEYS. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.
&&

.UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF FOG/STRATUS REMAINED THIS EVENING ALONG
THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS OF LINN AND LANE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES
CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO AT THIS HOUR. A WEAK
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH HAS BUILT NORTHWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WITH A STRONGER CORE OVER THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO SW
OREGON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A BIT OF A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND HAS KEPT NORTHERLY WINDS GOING. ALONG WITH
LOWERING DEW POINTS...THE WINDS HAVE DELAYED THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT FOR THE VALLEY AND AM GIVING IT ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BLOCKING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THAT
STILL MEANS ITS MORE LIKELY (70%) TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AREAS OF FOG
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...DID OPT TO LIMIT THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH VALLEY WIDESPREAD FOG MENTION UNTIL MUCH LATER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONTINUING ON
THAT THEME OF A LESSER FOG EVENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...DID BUMP UP
SOUTH VALLEY TEMPERATURES A SCANT FEW DEGREES OWING TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS BREAKOUT DURING A MEANINGFUL PART OF DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
HELP DISSIPATE THE LAYERS FROM THE TOP TOMORROW THOUGH STILL NOT
MUCH GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE. GRIDDED AND TEXT UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 201 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT SPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ONSHORE LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THIS DISTURBANCE
DISRUPTED FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS OF
VALLEY LOW CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT ARE
ERODING AND HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF COMPLETELY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
THUS THE WARMEST AREAS WILL AND AGAIN BE THE FOOTHILLS AND THE COAST
RANGE. WE WILL SEE MORE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS AS WELL AS THIS UPPER RIDGE ALSO PROVIDES MUCH BETTER
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

THE EASTERLY GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE HAS REACHED 6.5 MB THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY HANG IN THE 6 TO 7 MB RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DECENT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE...WITH
GUSTS AT THE WINDIER AREAS UP AROUND 50 MPH AND NEAR CROWN POINT 60
MPH OR HIGHER. THIS MAY AFFECT THE FOG COVERAGE AROUND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY GIVE SOME CLEARING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON MORE THAN WE SAW EARLIER
THIS WEEK. VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS UP INTO
THE 50S...AND IF ANY PLACE DOES NOT CLEAR THEN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO 50 OR THE UPPER 40S.

THE NEXT FRONT PROBABLY IS NOT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS13 AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAN THEY HAD BEEN. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL A HINT OF
A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF ANY
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH SNOW TO HELP OUT THE SNOWPACK. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN THE
BEST AGREEMENT WITH ANY DETAILS THOUGH THEY ARE COMING TOGETHER
BETTER ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY THAT WE WILL GET SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH RIDGING MID WEEK FOR A SUSTAINED DRY PERIOD THOUGH WE SHOULD
SEE SOME PERIODS OF DRYING BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEY. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO HALT ITS DEVELOPMENT TILL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A MIXTURE OF IFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT FOG
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 18-21Z FRIDAY WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WHERE STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AS SUCH...KTTD CAN EXPECT TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE
COAST COULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS TO THE COASTAL TAF SITE
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP BRINGING IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS EASE SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...IF THE EAST
WINDS MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP EXPECT IT TO CLEAR BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTH UP THE COAST INTO CENTRAL OREGON. GUSTS HAVE
INCREASED TO 25 KT OVER SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS BUT EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS OVER CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...WITH STRONGEST
GUSTS S OF NEWPORT. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON SUN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE FIRST OF A FEW THAT WILL TRAVERSE
THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SEAS HOLD AROUND 5 FT TODAY...AND WILL BUILD AT TIMES WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND PASSING FRONTS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 5
FT AND 8 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN. MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS...BUT NONE PARTICULARLY
STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300508
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR MILD AND DRY
WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF
FOG FORMATION BENEATH A STRENGTHENING TEMPERATURE INVERSION.
MODERATE EASTERLY GRADIENTS ALONG THE GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF EAST WINDS AND DISRUPT THE FOG SOME AROUND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND GIVE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS IN
THE VALLEYS. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.
&&

.UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF FOG/STRATUS REMAINED THIS EVENING ALONG
THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS OF LINN AND LANE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES
CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO AT THIS HOUR. A WEAK
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH HAS BUILT NORTHWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WITH A STRONGER CORE OVER THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO SW
OREGON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A BIT OF A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND HAS KEPT NORTHERLY WINDS GOING. ALONG WITH
LOWERING DEW POINTS...THE WINDS HAVE DELAYED THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT FOR THE VALLEY AND AM GIVING IT ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BLOCKING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THAT
STILL MEANS ITS MORE LIKELY (70%) TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AREAS OF FOG
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...DID OPT TO LIMIT THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH VALLEY WIDESPREAD FOG MENTION UNTIL MUCH LATER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONTINUING ON
THAT THEME OF A LESSER FOG EVENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...DID BUMP UP
SOUTH VALLEY TEMPERATURES A SCANT FEW DEGREES OWING TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS BREAKOUT DURING A MEANINGFUL PART OF DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
HELP DISSIPATE THE LAYERS FROM THE TOP TOMORROW THOUGH STILL NOT
MUCH GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE. GRIDDED AND TEXT UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 201 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT SPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ONSHORE LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THIS DISTURBANCE
DISRUPTED FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS OF
VALLEY LOW CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT ARE
ERODING AND HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF COMPLETELY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
THUS THE WARMEST AREAS WILL AND AGAIN BE THE FOOTHILLS AND THE COAST
RANGE. WE WILL SEE MORE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS AS WELL AS THIS UPPER RIDGE ALSO PROVIDES MUCH BETTER
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

THE EASTERLY GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE HAS REACHED 6.5 MB THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY HANG IN THE 6 TO 7 MB RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DECENT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE...WITH
GUSTS AT THE WINDIER AREAS UP AROUND 50 MPH AND NEAR CROWN POINT 60
MPH OR HIGHER. THIS MAY AFFECT THE FOG COVERAGE AROUND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY GIVE SOME CLEARING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON MORE THAN WE SAW EARLIER
THIS WEEK. VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS UP INTO
THE 50S...AND IF ANY PLACE DOES NOT CLEAR THEN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO 50 OR THE UPPER 40S.

THE NEXT FRONT PROBABLY IS NOT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS13 AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAN THEY HAD BEEN. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL A HINT OF
A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF ANY
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH SNOW TO HELP OUT THE SNOWPACK. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN THE
BEST AGREEMENT WITH ANY DETAILS THOUGH THEY ARE COMING TOGETHER
BETTER ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY THAT WE WILL GET SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH RIDGING MID WEEK FOR A SUSTAINED DRY PERIOD THOUGH WE SHOULD
SEE SOME PERIODS OF DRYING BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEY. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO HALT ITS DEVELOPMENT TILL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A MIXTURE OF IFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT FOG
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 18-21Z FRIDAY WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WHERE STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AS SUCH...KTTD CAN EXPECT TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE
COAST COULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS TO THE COASTAL TAF SITE
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP BRINGING IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS EASE SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...IF THE EAST
WINDS MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP EXPECT IT TO CLEAR BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTH UP THE COAST INTO CENTRAL OREGON. GUSTS HAVE
INCREASED TO 25 KT OVER SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS BUT EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS OVER CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...WITH STRONGEST
GUSTS S OF NEWPORT. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON SUN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE FIRST OF A FEW THAT WILL TRAVERSE
THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SEAS HOLD AROUND 5 FT TODAY...AND WILL BUILD AT TIMES WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND PASSING FRONTS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 5
FT AND 8 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN. MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS...BUT NONE PARTICULARLY
STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 300454
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
855 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY WITH
SOME NIGHT AND MORNING FOG EACH DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY. MODELS
THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING A BIT WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BUT NOW SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT SHOWING ALL AREAS GETTING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
DURING THE DAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING A ROUND OF WET WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...AROUND 4000 FEET...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE REGION ON TUE FOR DRIER WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN/WEAKEN
BY MIDWEEK AS MORE MOISTER ROLLS THROUGH THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PACNW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER E WA WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS SHOW CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING THIS EVENING.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL FORM OVERNIGHT OVER S PUGET SOUND AND THE SW
INTERIOR FOR IFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEAK OR CALM AND
04Z TEMP-DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE MOSTLY 2F OR LESS. OVER CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND...A LITTLE BIT OF N PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT N WINDS
IN THE 3-8 KT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH T/TD DEPRESSIONS IN THE 3-6
DEGREE RANGE. THE N FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAY HOLD
OFF FOG FORMATION LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE TO JUST PATCHY.
KPAE SHOULD GET IFR FOG AS N WINDS WILL CREATE A LOCAL UPSLOPE FOG
COMING OFF OF EVERETT HARBOR.

THE RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY.
THE MORE PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS OVER THE S PART SHOULD CLEAR BY
MIDDAY WITH PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE CLEARING EARLIER.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLY
MORNING IFR FOG/STRATUS IS THE ONLY ISSUE. WEAKENING N WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HOLD OFF THE FOG FORMATION LONG ENOUGH SO THAT IT
ONLY HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF DEVELOPING...SO I WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN N-NE 4-7 KT THROUGH 12Z
THEN WEAKEN TO 2-4 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE STRAIT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. 00Z NAM AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE SURFACE
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BELOW 20 KT. THE 12Z 4KM WRF-GFS WAS
JUST SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20-21 KT WINDS ALONG THE
N COAST. STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR THE MODELS TO CHANGE WITH 5 MORE
MAIN MODELS RUNS TO ARRIVE BEFORE SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TRAILING FRONT ON MONDAY.
12Z ECMWF STILL SHOWS A STRONGER LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS...GFS IS
STILL WEAKEST WITH AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL FALL IN THE SCA RANGE. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KOTX 300438
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
838 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AND SLICK
ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN IDAHO
AND FAR EASTERN REACHES OF WASHINGTON...

Evening update: main update this evening to was lower
temperatures and adjust sky cover slightly for portions of far
eastern washington and northern Idaho but generally speaking,
forecast is tracking well. Stratus remains the dominate feature
for the valleys near the Cascades, Northern Washington, and
Western Columbia Basin. Diurnal temperature swings will be small
but so will the threat for fog in the valleys. Any fog will likely
be encountered on routes that climb above 2500 feet.

For the eastern third of the CWA including Newport to Spokane to
Pullman and points east, clear skies this evening has resulted in
efficient radiational cooling and fog continues to develop as a
type. At this time, dense fog producing visibilities of a quarter
mile or less seems localized at the Cd`A airport, Pullman airport,
and at times, along the I-90 corridor through Spokane Valley. Cams
from these areas do not indicate widespread dense fog so will
address with short-term forecasts. If conditions continue to
deteriorate as expected, dense fog advisories will likely be
hoisted overnight.

Temperatures for far eastern WA and Nrn ID have or will fall below
freezing so motorists will not only have to contend with poor
visibility but slick roadways. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Tonight as the ridge builds and inversions strengthen
and boundary layer winds being light...fog and stratus will expand
to include all valleys. Areas that are seeing some clearing this
afternoon will have a better chance of dense fog development
tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly KLWS. Stratus
is expected to persist into Friday afternoon due to light winds
although some lifting of the stratus should help improve
visibilities. With stratus locked in place at KEAT/KMWH only minor
fluctuations in CIGS are expected through Friday afternoon. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  30  37  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  39  31  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  60
Pullman        31  39  31  44  34  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       32  42  33  47  35  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Colville       32  40  32  36  30  35 /   0   0  10  10  20  60
Sandpoint      28  36  30  36  28  34 /   0   0  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        28  39  30  39  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  70
Moses Lake     32  39  32  40  32  39 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      32  39  32  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           31  36  32  36  31  38 /   0   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300438
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
838 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AND SLICK
ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN IDAHO
AND FAR EASTERN REACHES OF WASHINGTON...

Evening update: main update this evening to was lower
temperatures and adjust sky cover slightly for portions of far
eastern washington and northern Idaho but generally speaking,
forecast is tracking well. Stratus remains the dominate feature
for the valleys near the Cascades, Northern Washington, and
Western Columbia Basin. Diurnal temperature swings will be small
but so will the threat for fog in the valleys. Any fog will likely
be encountered on routes that climb above 2500 feet.

For the eastern third of the CWA including Newport to Spokane to
Pullman and points east, clear skies this evening has resulted in
efficient radiational cooling and fog continues to develop as a
type. At this time, dense fog producing visibilities of a quarter
mile or less seems localized at the Cd`A airport, Pullman airport,
and at times, along the I-90 corridor through Spokane Valley. Cams
from these areas do not indicate widespread dense fog so will
address with short-term forecasts. If conditions continue to
deteriorate as expected, dense fog advisories will likely be
hoisted overnight.

Temperatures for far eastern WA and Nrn ID have or will fall below
freezing so motorists will not only have to contend with poor
visibility but slick roadways. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Tonight as the ridge builds and inversions strengthen
and boundary layer winds being light...fog and stratus will expand
to include all valleys. Areas that are seeing some clearing this
afternoon will have a better chance of dense fog development
tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly KLWS. Stratus
is expected to persist into Friday afternoon due to light winds
although some lifting of the stratus should help improve
visibilities. With stratus locked in place at KEAT/KMWH only minor
fluctuations in CIGS are expected through Friday afternoon. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  30  37  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  39  31  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  60
Pullman        31  39  31  44  34  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       32  42  33  47  35  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Colville       32  40  32  36  30  35 /   0   0  10  10  20  60
Sandpoint      28  36  30  36  28  34 /   0   0  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        28  39  30  39  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  70
Moses Lake     32  39  32  40  32  39 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      32  39  32  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           31  36  32  36  31  38 /   0   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 292245
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL LEAD TO DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO B.C. ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY CLIP THE AREA FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
BUT WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
LOWER...AROUND 4000 FEET...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
REGION ON TUE FOR DRIER WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN/WEAKEN BY
MIDWEEK AS MORE MOISTER ROLLS THROUGH THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHERLY AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY OTHER AREAS.

KSEA...VFR WILL BE THE MAIN CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. STRATUS/FOG
MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TERMINAL FRIDAY MORNING AND FOR NOW
WILL HANDLE THAT WITH 2SM BR SCT003 FOR A FEW HOURS. NORTHERLY WIND
4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT
EXCEPT FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 15-25
KT WINDS IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL
THERE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
WAFFLING BUT THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25
KT ON THE COAST WITH 10-20 KT INLAND. ANOTHER FRONT MONDAY COULD BE
A BIT STRONGER. A NEW IDEA IN THE GFS IS A NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW
EVENT ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO INLAND
ZONES SUCH AS THE NORTH INTERIOR. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 292245
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL LEAD TO DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO B.C. ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY CLIP THE AREA FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
BUT WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
LOWER...AROUND 4000 FEET...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
REGION ON TUE FOR DRIER WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN/WEAKEN BY
MIDWEEK AS MORE MOISTER ROLLS THROUGH THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHERLY AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY OTHER AREAS.

KSEA...VFR WILL BE THE MAIN CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. STRATUS/FOG
MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TERMINAL FRIDAY MORNING AND FOR NOW
WILL HANDLE THAT WITH 2SM BR SCT003 FOR A FEW HOURS. NORTHERLY WIND
4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT
EXCEPT FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 15-25
KT WINDS IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL
THERE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
WAFFLING BUT THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25
KT ON THE COAST WITH 10-20 KT INLAND. ANOTHER FRONT MONDAY COULD BE
A BIT STRONGER. A NEW IDEA IN THE GFS IS A NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW
EVENT ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO INLAND
ZONES SUCH AS THE NORTH INTERIOR. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 292239
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night...An upper level ridge will persist
allowing for a continuation of fog and stratus in the valleys.
With boundary layer winds becoming light this evening...fog and
stratus will expand and include all valleys overnight. Fog will be
more favored tonight in the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area, North Idaho Panhandle, and the palouse where breaks
in the stratus are occurring this afternoon which will allow for
radiational cooling this evening. Patchy dense fog is also
likely in these areas and its possible that advisories may be
needed. Freezing fog will also be a concern as temperatures
fall below freezing and fog freezes onto surfaces including
roadways. Meanwhile around Moses Lake, Wenatchee, Omak, and
Colville stratus will be more favored with limited if any fog
development due to limited cooling potential tonight with stratus
locked in place. Friday afternoon the stratus deck will lift
slightly but with light winds most valleys will stay cloudy
through the day. Friday night the NAM, ECMWF, and GEM models are
showing the potential for light drizzle, freezing drizzle, or
flurries out of the stratus layer as weak low level isentropic
lift develops ahead of a weak weather system over southern BC. JW

Saturday and Saturday evening...High pressure will continue to
dominate the weather...while an upper level disturbance slides by
along the Continental divide. This will put the region in a mainly
northwest-northerly flow. Little change in the weather as
fog/stratus will continue over the region. Temperatures will not
change much as well with high mainly in the 30s to lower 40s.

Saturday night through Thursday...The ridge will begin to bend
down Saturday night and Sunday. This will open the door for a
frontal system to pass through the region on Sunday/Sunday night.
Westerly flow will tap into Pacific moisture and bring a chance
for precipitation to the region. There looks to be a break in the
weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Then another...slightly
stronger warm front is expected Wednesday and Thursday.


*Precipitation: Confidence in light precipitation is fairly high
 outside of the basin Sunday through Monday. The flow will become
 southwest and tap into deeper moisture off the Pacific. PWAT`s
 increase to between .60 - .70 which is 200% of normal or more. It
 will not take much lift to wring precipitation out of a saturated
 atmosphere. A weak cold front will track across the region
 Tuesday and Tuesday night for a drying trend. The exception will
 be the along the crest of the Cascades and the orographically
 favored Panhandle mountains. The we start the process all over
 again Wednesday and Thursday.

*Precipitation amounts: Not as much confidence with this portion of
 the forecast...but the thinking at the time is that all areas
 will see measurable precipitation. Sunday-Monday storm totals
 will range form around .10 in the deep basin to .35-.55 for the
 mountains. Wednesday and Thursday is where the confidence in
 amounts is much lower but still there will be plenty.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels will begin around 3k feet across
 the south and 1500-2000 feet across the north...but are expected
 to slowly rise Monday. So rain across the southern zones and
 starting as snow down to valley floors Sunday morning near
 Highway 2 northward...then the rain/snow line will push north
 Sunday night and Monday. There will be a limited amount of snow
 in the valleys and 3-6 inches in the mountains through Monday
 afternoon...locally higher amounts above 5000 feet. Partial
 clearing on Tuesday night will allow snow levels to lower for the
 beginning of the precip on Wednesday but the warm air advection
 appears to be much stronger with the second system and snow
 levels should rapidly rise through the day on Wednesday.

*Temperatures: No big changes to the temperatures. Highs will
 range from the mid 30s across the north to lower 40s across the
 south. Lows mid 20s to mid 30s...and a bit cooler through the
 Purcell trench Thursday morning. Tobin



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Tonight as the ridge builds and inversions strengthen
and boundary layer winds being light...fog and stratus will expand
to include all valleys. Areas that are seeing some clearing this
afternoon will have a better chance of dense fog development
tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly KLWS. Stratus
is expected to persist into Friday afternoon due to light winds
although some lifting of the stratus should help improve
visibilities. With stratus locked in place at KEAT/KMWH only minor
fluctuations in CIGS are expected through Friday afternoon. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  36  30  37  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  30  39  31  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  60
Pullman        31  39  31  44  34  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       32  42  33  47  35  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Colville       32  40  32  36  30  35 /   0   0  10  10  20  60
Sandpoint      29  36  30  36  28  34 /   0   0  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        28  39  30  39  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  70
Moses Lake     32  39  32  40  32  39 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      32  39  32  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           31  36  32  36  31  38 /   0   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292239
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. This will result in
and increased chance for valley rain and mountain snow through
the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night...An upper level ridge will persist
allowing for a continuation of fog and stratus in the valleys.
With boundary layer winds becoming light this evening...fog and
stratus will expand and include all valleys overnight. Fog will be
more favored tonight in the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area, North Idaho Panhandle, and the palouse where breaks
in the stratus are occurring this afternoon which will allow for
radiational cooling this evening. Patchy dense fog is also
likely in these areas and its possible that advisories may be
needed. Freezing fog will also be a concern as temperatures
fall below freezing and fog freezes onto surfaces including
roadways. Meanwhile around Moses Lake, Wenatchee, Omak, and
Colville stratus will be more favored with limited if any fog
development due to limited cooling potential tonight with stratus
locked in place. Friday afternoon the stratus deck will lift
slightly but with light winds most valleys will stay cloudy
through the day. Friday night the NAM, ECMWF, and GEM models are
showing the potential for light drizzle, freezing drizzle, or
flurries out of the stratus layer as weak low level isentropic
lift develops ahead of a weak weather system over southern BC. JW

Saturday and Saturday evening...High pressure will continue to
dominate the weather...while an upper level disturbance slides by
along the Continental divide. This will put the region in a mainly
northwest-northerly flow. Little change in the weather as
fog/stratus will continue over the region. Temperatures will not
change much as well with high mainly in the 30s to lower 40s.

Saturday night through Thursday...The ridge will begin to bend
down Saturday night and Sunday. This will open the door for a
frontal system to pass through the region on Sunday/Sunday night.
Westerly flow will tap into Pacific moisture and bring a chance
for precipitation to the region. There looks to be a break in the
weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Then another...slightly
stronger warm front is expected Wednesday and Thursday.


*Precipitation: Confidence in light precipitation is fairly high
 outside of the basin Sunday through Monday. The flow will become
 southwest and tap into deeper moisture off the Pacific. PWAT`s
 increase to between .60 - .70 which is 200% of normal or more. It
 will not take much lift to wring precipitation out of a saturated
 atmosphere. A weak cold front will track across the region
 Tuesday and Tuesday night for a drying trend. The exception will
 be the along the crest of the Cascades and the orographically
 favored Panhandle mountains. The we start the process all over
 again Wednesday and Thursday.

*Precipitation amounts: Not as much confidence with this portion of
 the forecast...but the thinking at the time is that all areas
 will see measurable precipitation. Sunday-Monday storm totals
 will range form around .10 in the deep basin to .35-.55 for the
 mountains. Wednesday and Thursday is where the confidence in
 amounts is much lower but still there will be plenty.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels will begin around 3k feet across
 the south and 1500-2000 feet across the north...but are expected
 to slowly rise Monday. So rain across the southern zones and
 starting as snow down to valley floors Sunday morning near
 Highway 2 northward...then the rain/snow line will push north
 Sunday night and Monday. There will be a limited amount of snow
 in the valleys and 3-6 inches in the mountains through Monday
 afternoon...locally higher amounts above 5000 feet. Partial
 clearing on Tuesday night will allow snow levels to lower for the
 beginning of the precip on Wednesday but the warm air advection
 appears to be much stronger with the second system and snow
 levels should rapidly rise through the day on Wednesday.

*Temperatures: No big changes to the temperatures. Highs will
 range from the mid 30s across the north to lower 40s across the
 south. Lows mid 20s to mid 30s...and a bit cooler through the
 Purcell trench Thursday morning. Tobin



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Tonight as the ridge builds and inversions strengthen
and boundary layer winds being light...fog and stratus will expand
to include all valleys. Areas that are seeing some clearing this
afternoon will have a better chance of dense fog development
tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and possibly KLWS. Stratus
is expected to persist into Friday afternoon due to light winds
although some lifting of the stratus should help improve
visibilities. With stratus locked in place at KEAT/KMWH only minor
fluctuations in CIGS are expected through Friday afternoon. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  36  30  37  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  30  39  31  39  30  37 /   0   0  10  10  10  60
Pullman        31  39  31  44  34  43 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       32  42  33  47  35  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Colville       32  40  32  36  30  35 /   0   0  10  10  20  60
Sandpoint      29  36  30  36  28  34 /   0   0  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        28  39  30  39  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  10  70
Moses Lake     32  39  32  40  32  39 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      32  39  32  39  32  40 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           31  36  32  36  31  38 /   0   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 292201
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
201 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND DISRUPTED FOG DEVELOPMENT WAS MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR
MILD AND DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
FOR AREAS OF FOG FORMATION BENEATH A STRENGTHENING TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. MODERATE EASTERLY GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF EAST WINDS AND DISRUPT THE FOG
SOME AROUND THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND GIVE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING IN
THE AFTERNOONS IN THE VALLEYS. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT SPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ONSHORE LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THIS DISTURBANCE DISRUPTED
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS OF VALLEY LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT ARE ERODING AND
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF COMPLETELY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
THUS THE WARMEST AREAS WILL AND AGAIN BE THE FOOTHILLS AND THE COAST
RANGE. WE WILL SEE MORE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS AS WELL AS THIS UPPER RIDGE ALSO PROVIDES MUCH BETTER
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

THE EASTERLY GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE HAS REACHED 6.5 MB THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY HANG IN THE 6 TO 7 MB RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DECENT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE...WITH
GUSTS AT THE WINDIER AREAS UP AROUND 50 MPH AND NEAR CROWN POINT 60
MPH OR HIGHER. THIS MAY AFFECT THE FOG COVERAGE AROUND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY GIVE SOME CLEARING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON MORE THAN WE SAW EARLIER
THIS WEEK. VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS UP INTO
THE 50S...AND IF ANY PLACE DOES NOT CLEAR THEN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO 50 OR THE UPPER 40S.

THE NEXT FRONT PROBABLY IS NOT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS13 AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAN THEY HAD BEEN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL A HINT OF A
FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF ANY
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH SNOW TO HELP OUT THE SNOWPACK. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN THE
BEST AGREEMENT WITH ANY DETAILS THOUGH THEY ARE COMING TOGETHER
BETTER ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT IS
NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY THAT WE WILL GET SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RIDGING MID
WEEK FOR A SUSTAINED DRY PERIOD THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF
DRYING BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH A DECK OF
SOME LINGERING IFR CIGS BANKED UP ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND IN
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO PRODUCE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR
FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY
KHIO...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY PATCHY FOG CAUSING MVFR
VSBYS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. KTTD REMAINS CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
GUSTY EAST WIND. LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR KPDX/KVUO WHERE
DEVELOPMENT OF EAST WIND IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BE MORE SHALLOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH CLEARING TO VFR BY 19Z.
HOWEVER...KHIO AND KAST MAY REMAIN IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND EASING WINDS LATE. BETTER CHANCES OVER THE APPROACHES
FOR FOG AFT 09Z...AND 12-17Z AT THE TERMINAL. IF EAST WINDS MAKE IT
TO THE TERMINAL...CONTINUED CLEARING LIKELY REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT IF WINDS GO CALM...COULD SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. THINK FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE MORE PATCHY AND LESS DENSE...LIKELY PRODUCING MVFR
VSBYS. EXPECT ANY FOG TO BEGIN CLEARING 17Z AND IMPROVE TO VFR UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BY 19Z...CONTINUING THROUGH FRI. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS HAVE BECOME  MORE
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHUP
THE COAST INTO CENTRAL OREGON. GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS BUT EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS S OF NEWPORT. WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY ON SUN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE FIRST
OF A FEW THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS HOLD AROUND 5 FT TODAY...AND WILL
BUILD AT TIMES WITH INCREASING WINDS AND PASSING FRONTS...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 5 FT AND 8 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN. MODELS SUGGEST A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS...BUT NONE
PARTICULARLY STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 292201
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
201 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND DISRUPTED FOG DEVELOPMENT WAS MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR
MILD AND DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
FOR AREAS OF FOG FORMATION BENEATH A STRENGTHENING TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. MODERATE EASTERLY GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF EAST WINDS AND DISRUPT THE FOG
SOME AROUND THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND GIVE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING IN
THE AFTERNOONS IN THE VALLEYS. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT SPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ONSHORE LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THIS DISTURBANCE DISRUPTED
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS OF VALLEY LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT ARE ERODING AND
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF COMPLETELY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
THUS THE WARMEST AREAS WILL AND AGAIN BE THE FOOTHILLS AND THE COAST
RANGE. WE WILL SEE MORE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS AS WELL AS THIS UPPER RIDGE ALSO PROVIDES MUCH BETTER
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

THE EASTERLY GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE HAS REACHED 6.5 MB THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY HANG IN THE 6 TO 7 MB RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DECENT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE...WITH
GUSTS AT THE WINDIER AREAS UP AROUND 50 MPH AND NEAR CROWN POINT 60
MPH OR HIGHER. THIS MAY AFFECT THE FOG COVERAGE AROUND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY GIVE SOME CLEARING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON MORE THAN WE SAW EARLIER
THIS WEEK. VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS UP INTO
THE 50S...AND IF ANY PLACE DOES NOT CLEAR THEN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO 50 OR THE UPPER 40S.

THE NEXT FRONT PROBABLY IS NOT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS13 AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAN THEY HAD BEEN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL A HINT OF A
FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF ANY
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH SNOW TO HELP OUT THE SNOWPACK. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN THE
BEST AGREEMENT WITH ANY DETAILS THOUGH THEY ARE COMING TOGETHER
BETTER ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT IS
NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY THAT WE WILL GET SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RIDGING MID
WEEK FOR A SUSTAINED DRY PERIOD THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF
DRYING BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH A DECK OF
SOME LINGERING IFR CIGS BANKED UP ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND IN
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO PRODUCE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR
FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY
KHIO...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY PATCHY FOG CAUSING MVFR
VSBYS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. KTTD REMAINS CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
GUSTY EAST WIND. LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR KPDX/KVUO WHERE
DEVELOPMENT OF EAST WIND IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BE MORE SHALLOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH CLEARING TO VFR BY 19Z.
HOWEVER...KHIO AND KAST MAY REMAIN IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND EASING WINDS LATE. BETTER CHANCES OVER THE APPROACHES
FOR FOG AFT 09Z...AND 12-17Z AT THE TERMINAL. IF EAST WINDS MAKE IT
TO THE TERMINAL...CONTINUED CLEARING LIKELY REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT IF WINDS GO CALM...COULD SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. THINK FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE MORE PATCHY AND LESS DENSE...LIKELY PRODUCING MVFR
VSBYS. EXPECT ANY FOG TO BEGIN CLEARING 17Z AND IMPROVE TO VFR UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BY 19Z...CONTINUING THROUGH FRI. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS HAVE BECOME  MORE
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHUP
THE COAST INTO CENTRAL OREGON. GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS BUT EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS S OF NEWPORT. WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY ON SUN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE FIRST
OF A FEW THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS HOLD AROUND 5 FT TODAY...AND WILL
BUILD AT TIMES WITH INCREASING WINDS AND PASSING FRONTS...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 5 FT AND 8 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN. MODELS SUGGEST A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS...BUT NONE
PARTICULARLY STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292201
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
201 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND DISRUPTED FOG DEVELOPMENT WAS MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR
MILD AND DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
FOR AREAS OF FOG FORMATION BENEATH A STRENGTHENING TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. MODERATE EASTERLY GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF EAST WINDS AND DISRUPT THE FOG
SOME AROUND THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND GIVE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING IN
THE AFTERNOONS IN THE VALLEYS. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT SPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ONSHORE LAST NIGHT WAS MOVING
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THIS DISTURBANCE DISRUPTED
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS OF VALLEY LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT ARE ERODING AND
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF COMPLETELY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
THUS THE WARMEST AREAS WILL AND AGAIN BE THE FOOTHILLS AND THE COAST
RANGE. WE WILL SEE MORE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS AS WELL AS THIS UPPER RIDGE ALSO PROVIDES MUCH BETTER
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

THE EASTERLY GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE HAS REACHED 6.5 MB THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY HANG IN THE 6 TO 7 MB RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DECENT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE...WITH
GUSTS AT THE WINDIER AREAS UP AROUND 50 MPH AND NEAR CROWN POINT 60
MPH OR HIGHER. THIS MAY AFFECT THE FOG COVERAGE AROUND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY GIVE SOME CLEARING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON MORE THAN WE SAW EARLIER
THIS WEEK. VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS UP INTO
THE 50S...AND IF ANY PLACE DOES NOT CLEAR THEN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO 50 OR THE UPPER 40S.

THE NEXT FRONT PROBABLY IS NOT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS13 AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAN THEY HAD BEEN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE LAST WEEK OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL A HINT OF A
FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF ANY
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH SNOW TO HELP OUT THE SNOWPACK. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN THE
BEST AGREEMENT WITH ANY DETAILS THOUGH THEY ARE COMING TOGETHER
BETTER ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT IS
NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY THAT WE WILL GET SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH RIDGING MID
WEEK FOR A SUSTAINED DRY PERIOD THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF
DRYING BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH A DECK OF
SOME LINGERING IFR CIGS BANKED UP ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND IN
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO PRODUCE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR
FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY
KHIO...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY PATCHY FOG CAUSING MVFR
VSBYS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. KTTD REMAINS CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
GUSTY EAST WIND. LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR KPDX/KVUO WHERE
DEVELOPMENT OF EAST WIND IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BE MORE SHALLOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH CLEARING TO VFR BY 19Z.
HOWEVER...KHIO AND KAST MAY REMAIN IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND EASING WINDS LATE. BETTER CHANCES OVER THE APPROACHES
FOR FOG AFT 09Z...AND 12-17Z AT THE TERMINAL. IF EAST WINDS MAKE IT
TO THE TERMINAL...CONTINUED CLEARING LIKELY REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT IF WINDS GO CALM...COULD SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. THINK FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE MORE PATCHY AND LESS DENSE...LIKELY PRODUCING MVFR
VSBYS. EXPECT ANY FOG TO BEGIN CLEARING 17Z AND IMPROVE TO VFR UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BY 19Z...CONTINUING THROUGH FRI. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS HAVE BECOME  MORE
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHUP
THE COAST INTO CENTRAL OREGON. GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS BUT EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS S OF NEWPORT. WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY ON SUN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE FIRST
OF A FEW THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS HOLD AROUND 5 FT TODAY...AND WILL
BUILD AT TIMES WITH INCREASING WINDS AND PASSING FRONTS...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 5 FT AND 8 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN. MODELS SUGGEST A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS...BUT NONE
PARTICULARLY STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 291812
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1012 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. The next best
threat of precipitation, including possible rain and snow, arrives
then and continues into at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: Web cameras and satellite imagery as of 930 am
indicated fog and stratus covering the Cascade valleys, northern
valleys, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, the Columbia Basin, as well
as the Lewiston area. The fog continues to be dense around the
West plains area including Davenport and Airway Heights...as well
as the Waterville Plateau and the Lewiston area.  With light
boundary layer winds today...and a building ridge...the stratus
layer is not expected to change much with only a slight lifting of
the stratus layer expected. The NAM model progs seem to have this
well handled. With this in mind...have adjusted temperatures to
limit rises to only 2-5 degrees from current readings. For most
areas this resulted in only slight changes...except Lewiston where
temperatures were cooled several degrees. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Dense fog with VLIFR conditions at KGEG/KLWS is expected
to slowly improve this afternoon as CIGS associated with the
stratus layer slowly rise. Elsewhere stratus will continue to
cover most valleys except KPUW where an east wind should keep the
stratus west of the TAF site. Tonight as the ridge builds and
inversions strengthen and boundary layer winds being light...fog
and stratus will expand to include KPUW. The stratus layer will
lower slightly with dense freezing fog expected again at
KGEG...with dense fog also possible at KPUW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  29  38  30  38  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  29  40  29  40  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        45  32  42  33  44  34 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       38  35  44  35  47  35 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Colville       38  27  36  29  36  30 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      37  27  37  27  37  28 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Kellogg        41  30  40  30  40  31 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     40  31  39  30  40  32 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      37  32  39  32  39  32 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           36  28  35  30  36  31 /  10   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291812
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1012 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. The next best
threat of precipitation, including possible rain and snow, arrives
then and continues into at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: Web cameras and satellite imagery as of 930 am
indicated fog and stratus covering the Cascade valleys, northern
valleys, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, the Columbia Basin, as well
as the Lewiston area. The fog continues to be dense around the
West plains area including Davenport and Airway Heights...as well
as the Waterville Plateau and the Lewiston area.  With light
boundary layer winds today...and a building ridge...the stratus
layer is not expected to change much with only a slight lifting of
the stratus layer expected. The NAM model progs seem to have this
well handled. With this in mind...have adjusted temperatures to
limit rises to only 2-5 degrees from current readings. For most
areas this resulted in only slight changes...except Lewiston where
temperatures were cooled several degrees. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Dense fog with VLIFR conditions at KGEG/KLWS is expected
to slowly improve this afternoon as CIGS associated with the
stratus layer slowly rise. Elsewhere stratus will continue to
cover most valleys except KPUW where an east wind should keep the
stratus west of the TAF site. Tonight as the ridge builds and
inversions strengthen and boundary layer winds being light...fog
and stratus will expand to include KPUW. The stratus layer will
lower slightly with dense freezing fog expected again at
KGEG...with dense fog also possible at KPUW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  29  38  30  38  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  29  40  29  40  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        45  32  42  33  44  34 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       38  35  44  35  47  35 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Colville       38  27  36  29  36  30 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      37  27  37  27  37  28 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Kellogg        41  30  40  30  40  31 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     40  31  39  30  40  32 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      37  32  39  32  39  32 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           36  28  35  30  36  31 /  10   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291812
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1012 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. The next best
threat of precipitation, including possible rain and snow, arrives
then and continues into at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: Web cameras and satellite imagery as of 930 am
indicated fog and stratus covering the Cascade valleys, northern
valleys, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, the Columbia Basin, as well
as the Lewiston area. The fog continues to be dense around the
West plains area including Davenport and Airway Heights...as well
as the Waterville Plateau and the Lewiston area.  With light
boundary layer winds today...and a building ridge...the stratus
layer is not expected to change much with only a slight lifting of
the stratus layer expected. The NAM model progs seem to have this
well handled. With this in mind...have adjusted temperatures to
limit rises to only 2-5 degrees from current readings. For most
areas this resulted in only slight changes...except Lewiston where
temperatures were cooled several degrees. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Dense fog with VLIFR conditions at KGEG/KLWS is expected
to slowly improve this afternoon as CIGS associated with the
stratus layer slowly rise. Elsewhere stratus will continue to
cover most valleys except KPUW where an east wind should keep the
stratus west of the TAF site. Tonight as the ridge builds and
inversions strengthen and boundary layer winds being light...fog
and stratus will expand to include KPUW. The stratus layer will
lower slightly with dense freezing fog expected again at
KGEG...with dense fog also possible at KPUW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  29  38  30  38  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  29  40  29  40  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        45  32  42  33  44  34 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       38  35  44  35  47  35 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Colville       38  27  36  29  36  30 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      37  27  37  27  37  28 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Kellogg        41  30  40  30  40  31 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     40  31  39  30  40  32 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      37  32  39  32  39  32 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           36  28  35  30  36  31 /  10   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291812
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1012 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of
Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of
high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. The next best
threat of precipitation, including possible rain and snow, arrives
then and continues into at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: Web cameras and satellite imagery as of 930 am
indicated fog and stratus covering the Cascade valleys, northern
valleys, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, the Columbia Basin, as well
as the Lewiston area. The fog continues to be dense around the
West plains area including Davenport and Airway Heights...as well
as the Waterville Plateau and the Lewiston area.  With light
boundary layer winds today...and a building ridge...the stratus
layer is not expected to change much with only a slight lifting of
the stratus layer expected. The NAM model progs seem to have this
well handled. With this in mind...have adjusted temperatures to
limit rises to only 2-5 degrees from current readings. For most
areas this resulted in only slight changes...except Lewiston where
temperatures were cooled several degrees. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Dense fog with VLIFR conditions at KGEG/KLWS is expected
to slowly improve this afternoon as CIGS associated with the
stratus layer slowly rise. Elsewhere stratus will continue to
cover most valleys except KPUW where an east wind should keep the
stratus west of the TAF site. Tonight as the ridge builds and
inversions strengthen and boundary layer winds being light...fog
and stratus will expand to include KPUW. The stratus layer will
lower slightly with dense freezing fog expected again at
KGEG...with dense fog also possible at KPUW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  29  38  30  38  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  29  40  29  40  31 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        45  32  42  33  44  34 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       38  35  44  35  47  35 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Colville       38  27  36  29  36  30 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      37  27  37  27  37  28 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Kellogg        41  30  40  30  40  31 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     40  31  39  30  40  32 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      37  32  39  32  39  32 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           36  28  35  30  36  31 /  10   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291721
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT DISRUPTED FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WHAT FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THAT DID FORM WILL TEND TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER
CLOUDS AND FEW REMAINING SPRINKLES FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
THEN MOVE IN FOR MILD AND DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY
GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF EAST WINDS AND DISRUPT THE FOG SOME AROUND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...AND GIVE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS IN THE
VALLEYS. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT SPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ONSHORE LAST NIGHT AND THAT STILL LINGERS THIS MORNING
AFFECTED THE FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND THE
COVERAGE IS STILL ON THE PATCHY SIDE THIS MORNING. AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WILL SEE SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE MANY AREAS...AND THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE
AROUND WILL TEND TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CONTINUED RATHER
MILD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FOR JANUARY...HAVE UPPED TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OCCUR WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
THUS THE WARMEST AREAS WILL AND AGAIN BE THE FOOTHILLS AND THE COAST
RANGE. WE WILL SE MORE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS
AS WELL.

THE EASTERLY GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE HAS REACHED JUST OVER 6 MB
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY HANG IN THE 6 TO 7 MB RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DECENT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE...WITH
GUSTS AT THE WINDIER AREAS UP AROUND 50 MPH AND NEAR CROWN POINT 60
MPH OR HIGHER. THIS MAY AFFECT THE COVERAGE AROUND THE COLUMBIA RIVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY GIVE SOME CLEARING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON MORE THAN WE SAW EARLIER THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT PROBABLY IS NOT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WE ENTER A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION
AND TIMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED THE IDEA THAT RAIN IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
DETAILS STILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. POPS WERE TRENDED
DOWNWARD DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY JUST YET
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK SO POPS WERE TRENDED BACK UPWARDS TOWARDS DAY 7. /NEUMAN
&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS THE NORTH COAST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY IMPROVES TO VFR UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR NEARLY EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY. KHIO MAY
LINGER IN IT A BIT MORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY... WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KT POSSIBLE AT KTTD AND GUSTY EAST WINDS ALSO MATERIALIZING AT
KPDX AND ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES TODAY. AFTER THE CLEARING TODAY AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. KTTD WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR WITH CONTINUING GUSTY E WINDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG CONTINUES THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND CLEAR AROUND 19Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. EAST WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING FOG AFT
12Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE APPROACHES. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE
TERMINAL...PARTICULARLY IF E WINDS CONTINUE AS THIS WOULD PROMOTE
CONTINUED CLEARING RATHER THAN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO EXPECT
PERIODS OF FOG AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...
BUT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY LATER TODAY AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH UP THE PACIFIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM NEWPORT SOUTH. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SUN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE FIRST OF A FEW THAT WILL
TRAVERSE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS HOLD AROUND 5 FT TODAY...AND WILL BUILD AT TIMES WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND PASSING FRONTS...BUT LARGELY LOOK TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 5 FT AND 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS REMAINS LOWER.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291721
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT DISRUPTED FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WHAT FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THAT DID FORM WILL TEND TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER
CLOUDS AND FEW REMAINING SPRINKLES FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
THEN MOVE IN FOR MILD AND DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY
GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF EAST WINDS AND DISRUPT THE FOG SOME AROUND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...AND GIVE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS IN THE
VALLEYS. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT SPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ONSHORE LAST NIGHT AND THAT STILL LINGERS THIS MORNING
AFFECTED THE FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND THE
COVERAGE IS STILL ON THE PATCHY SIDE THIS MORNING. AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WILL SEE SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE MANY AREAS...AND THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE
AROUND WILL TEND TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CONTINUED RATHER
MILD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FOR JANUARY...HAVE UPPED TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OCCUR WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
THUS THE WARMEST AREAS WILL AND AGAIN BE THE FOOTHILLS AND THE COAST
RANGE. WE WILL SE MORE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS
AS WELL.

THE EASTERLY GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE HAS REACHED JUST OVER 6 MB
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY HANG IN THE 6 TO 7 MB RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DECENT EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE...WITH
GUSTS AT THE WINDIER AREAS UP AROUND 50 MPH AND NEAR CROWN POINT 60
MPH OR HIGHER. THIS MAY AFFECT THE COVERAGE AROUND THE COLUMBIA RIVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY GIVE SOME CLEARING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON MORE THAN WE SAW EARLIER THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT PROBABLY IS NOT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WE ENTER A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION
AND TIMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED THE IDEA THAT RAIN IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
DETAILS STILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. POPS WERE TRENDED
DOWNWARD DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY JUST YET
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK SO POPS WERE TRENDED BACK UPWARDS TOWARDS DAY 7. /NEUMAN
&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS THE NORTH COAST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY IMPROVES TO VFR UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR NEARLY EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY. KHIO MAY
LINGER IN IT A BIT MORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY... WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KT POSSIBLE AT KTTD AND GUSTY EAST WINDS ALSO MATERIALIZING AT
KPDX AND ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES TODAY. AFTER THE CLEARING TODAY AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. KTTD WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR WITH CONTINUING GUSTY E WINDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG CONTINUES THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND CLEAR AROUND 19Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. EAST WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING FOG AFT
12Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE APPROACHES. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE
TERMINAL...PARTICULARLY IF E WINDS CONTINUE AS THIS WOULD PROMOTE
CONTINUED CLEARING RATHER THAN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO EXPECT
PERIODS OF FOG AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...
BUT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY LATER TODAY AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH UP THE PACIFIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM NEWPORT SOUTH. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SUN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE FIRST OF A FEW THAT WILL
TRAVERSE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS HOLD AROUND 5 FT TODAY...AND WILL BUILD AT TIMES WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND PASSING FRONTS...BUT LARGELY LOOK TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 5 FT AND 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS REMAINS LOWER.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 291715
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL LEAD TO DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL -
HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY AND FRI. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO B.C. ON
SATURDAY WHICH MAY CLIP THE AREA FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS. BUT COULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL TIMED
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WERE A TOUCH
SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY VERSUS THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. TOOK THE POPS OUT OF 00Z-06Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND
LOWERED THE POPS FOR 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A RAIN PRODUCER WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A
WEAKER SYSTEM INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL STAY WITH THE RAIN LIKELY FORECAST ON
MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY
KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING...CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AIMED AT VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE PATTERN WITH THE WARM FRONT BRUSHING WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLES AREA ALL OVER THE PLACE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NOT LENDING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTION. WITH
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND THE  SCRAMBLED ENSEMBLES
WILL STAY WITH THE CHANCE POPS FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE NORTHERLY AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND IN THE STRAIT BUT SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WIND 7-11 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT
EXCEPT FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 15-25
KT WINDS IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL
THERE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. RECENT MODELS HAVE
TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND ARE KEEPING WINDS BELOW 20 KT. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY BUT MODELS ARE WAFFLING ABOUT
ITS STRENGTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 291715
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL LEAD TO DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL -
HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY AND FRI. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO B.C. ON
SATURDAY WHICH MAY CLIP THE AREA FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS. BUT COULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL TIMED
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WERE A TOUCH
SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY VERSUS THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. TOOK THE POPS OUT OF 00Z-06Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND
LOWERED THE POPS FOR 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A RAIN PRODUCER WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A
WEAKER SYSTEM INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL STAY WITH THE RAIN LIKELY FORECAST ON
MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY
KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING...CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AIMED AT VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE PATTERN WITH THE WARM FRONT BRUSHING WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLES AREA ALL OVER THE PLACE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NOT LENDING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTION. WITH
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND THE  SCRAMBLED ENSEMBLES
WILL STAY WITH THE CHANCE POPS FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE NORTHERLY AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND IN THE STRAIT BUT SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WIND 7-11 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT
EXCEPT FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 15-25
KT WINDS IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL
THERE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. RECENT MODELS HAVE
TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND ARE KEEPING WINDS BELOW 20 KT. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY BUT MODELS ARE WAFFLING ABOUT
ITS STRENGTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 291715
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL LEAD TO DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL -
HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY AND FRI. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO B.C. ON
SATURDAY WHICH MAY CLIP THE AREA FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS. BUT COULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL TIMED
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WERE A TOUCH
SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY VERSUS THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. TOOK THE POPS OUT OF 00Z-06Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND
LOWERED THE POPS FOR 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A RAIN PRODUCER WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A
WEAKER SYSTEM INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL STAY WITH THE RAIN LIKELY FORECAST ON
MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY
KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING...CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AIMED AT VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE PATTERN WITH THE WARM FRONT BRUSHING WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLES AREA ALL OVER THE PLACE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NOT LENDING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTION. WITH
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND THE  SCRAMBLED ENSEMBLES
WILL STAY WITH THE CHANCE POPS FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE NORTHERLY AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND IN THE STRAIT BUT SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WIND 7-11 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT
EXCEPT FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 15-25
KT WINDS IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL
THERE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. RECENT MODELS HAVE
TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND ARE KEEPING WINDS BELOW 20 KT. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY BUT MODELS ARE WAFFLING ABOUT
ITS STRENGTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 291715
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL LEAD TO DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL -
HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY AND FRI. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO B.C. ON
SATURDAY WHICH MAY CLIP THE AREA FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS. BUT COULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL TIMED
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WERE A TOUCH
SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY VERSUS THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. TOOK THE POPS OUT OF 00Z-06Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND
LOWERED THE POPS FOR 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A RAIN PRODUCER WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A
WEAKER SYSTEM INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL STAY WITH THE RAIN LIKELY FORECAST ON
MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY
KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING...CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AIMED AT VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE PATTERN WITH THE WARM FRONT BRUSHING WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLES AREA ALL OVER THE PLACE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NOT LENDING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTION. WITH
THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND THE  SCRAMBLED ENSEMBLES
WILL STAY WITH THE CHANCE POPS FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE NORTHERLY AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND IN THE STRAIT BUT SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WIND 7-11 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRODUCING NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH PUGET SOUND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT
EXCEPT FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 15-25
KT WINDS IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL
THERE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. RECENT MODELS HAVE
TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND ARE KEEPING WINDS BELOW 20 KT. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY BUT MODELS ARE WAFFLING ABOUT
ITS STRENGTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






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