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000
FXUS66 KOTX 312346
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
446 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and ocassionally showery spring-like weather pattern
will continue through the week and into the weekend. Widespread
freezing temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday morning.
Then anticipate more seasonal temperatures by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow: A cool spring-like upper-level trof will
continue to slide into the region this evening and remain in
place through tomorrow. 500mb temperatures within the core of the
trof are on the order of -30C or cooler which is leading to
steepening lapse rates and potential for showers. Winds this
afternoon are helping to bring drier air in the lee of the
Cascades and Basin which will keep a bulk of the shower activity
focusing on the mountains and adjoining outer reaches of the
Basin. So far there has not been a lightning strike in WA/ID (just
across the border in BC) but convection continues to increase and
a few strikes are a strong possibility with the best chances in
the northern and eastern mountains. A Puget Sound Convergence Zone
has become established and per the HRRR, should continue through
much of this evening into tonight. Depending on where this narrow
bands swings north and south, it looks promising for some snow
accumulations to impact Stevens Pass and possible east into
locations like Plain, Coles Corner, and perhaps Leavenworth.
Another feature we are closely monitoring is a second midlevel
circulation or vort max near 130W. Earlier model runs brought this
feature near the WA/OR border then through the Blues...Palouse
/L-C Valley...and into the Central Panhandle...but satellite
trends and latest RUC suggest this feature will take a southward
track through Oregon.

Temperatures will be cool overnight with several locations within
the northern valleys dipping below the freezing mark. This includes
locations like Winthrop, Omak, Republic, Deer Park, Ione, and
Priest Lake. Communities along and north of I-90 within the Idaho
Panhandle could also be close to freezing for a short period of
time Wednesday morning but confidence is lower with the potential
for cloud cover.

Following a few hours of warming Wednesday, look for widely scattered
showers to blossom across a majority of the region. The highest
concentration of activity will focus along and east of a line from
Republic to Pullman but any number of midlevel disturbances coming
across the Cascades could lead to clusters of activity. The
atmosphere will be cooler compared to Tuesday and most shower
activity will fall as a combination of rain and snow pellets. This
lowers the threat for thunder as the thermal characteristics
within the cloud will not be as favorable for charge separation.
There is a small chance for lightning but should be less than
Tuesday...which has yet to materialize. Winds will become low-end
breezy Wednesday but several magnitudes lower than Tuesday. High
temperatures will only warm into the 50s...coming in near to just
shy of typical values for April 1st. /sb

Wednesday night through Friday night...A typical active spring
weather pattern will continue for the rest of the work week.
Latest models are in decent agreement in depicting the slow exit
of the current upper level trough through Thursday before a short
wave ridge builds in for an ill defined/less showery break period
Thursday night and Friday followed by the arrival of the next cold
front Friday night.

Thursday will feature slightly cooler than normal high and low
temperatures...probable sunbreaks over much of the area but also
a continuing chance of scattered hit-and-miss showers east of a
line from Omak to Walla Walla with a stray short lived garden
variety spring thunderstorm thrown into the mix in the northeast
mountains and Idaho Panhandle.

The main threat during this period will be the possibility of
freezing temperatures Thursday morning and again on Friday morning
over most of the region. The lowest elevation locations of
Wenatchee...Moses lake and the L-C valley will also be at risk for
freezing and ordinarily this early in the year freezes are not
uncommon...however the unusual warmth of the past month has
stimulated some anomalously early budding and blooming in some of
these areas. As the forecast for Thursday morning`s low
temperatures is refined on subsequent shifts an early season
Freeze Warning may be necessary for these low elevation
locations.

Friday will feature the approach of the next trough and while the
cold front will hold off until Friday evening...a weak mid level
warm front is suggested by the models setting up over the
northeastern zones and panhandle during the day Friday. Not much
actual precipitation is expected but mid level and high clouds
will increase during the day with mid-range chances of light rain
mainly over the north. The actual cold front will pass through
Friday night with a better chance of valley rain and mountain
snow...with breezier conditions behind the front promoting warmer
overnight lows by dawn Saturday. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: An upper level trough will be main
weather feature for the weekend and into early next week. Both
the GFS and ECWMF are very similar on handling this feature as it
sinks south from the Gulf of AK south to the Washington coast
Saturday and Sunday, and then weakens and opens up as it swings
inland for Monday. Broad troughiness lingers into Tuesday. This
will keep temperatures near seasonal normals and showery
conditions through this period. Made some slight chances to the
sensible weather of the forecast. The progress of the upper level
low seems slower than seen yesterday, which would yield to a
slower evolution of the shower development and a slower cool down
of the temperatures. Most showers will be diurnally driven,
peaking in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. As the low
digs south, the main brunt of the shower activity shifts south for
Sunday, highlighting the southern Cascades and the Blue mountains.
Then Monday and into Tuesday, the convection returns to the
diurnal trends concentrating in the mountains. Snow levels will
waffle from the valley floors at night and into the mountains
during the day, so precipitation will switch to snow at night with
minor accumulations possible, to a rain/snow/graupel mix during
the afternoon hours. What this equates to is typically spring like
weather for the Inland Northwest. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold upper level trof will promote scattered showers
and a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly this evening and
again Wednesday aft/eve during peak daytime heating. Convection this
evening are expected to be confined mainly in the mountains due to
strong downslope flow off the Cascades. The best chance for an
isolated thunderstorm will be near the Canadian Border around
Metaline Falls and Bonners Ferry. Windy conditions will subside
this evening around 02-04z as pressure gradients decrease and
mixing potential decreases. Several type of precipitation are
possible with these showers this evening as well as Wednesday
afternoon...including rain...snow...small hail...and graupel.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  29  52  31  54 /  10  50  20  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  31  51  28  50  30  54 /  10  60  30  30  30  20
Pullman        34  49  30  49  32  54 /  20  40  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       37  55  33  54  34  59 /  30  40  20  20  10  10
Colville       33  55  29  55  31  55 /  30  40  20  20  10  30
Sandpoint      31  51  27  50  28  52 /  30  60  20  40  30  40
Kellogg        31  45  29  45  31  50 /  30  60  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     37  60  30  59  31  59 /  10  20   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      38  58  34  59  37  58 /  20  20   0  10  10  20
Omak           32  57  30  59  32  58 /  10  30  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 312346
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
446 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and ocassionally showery spring-like weather pattern
will continue through the week and into the weekend. Widespread
freezing temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday morning.
Then anticipate more seasonal temperatures by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow: A cool spring-like upper-level trof will
continue to slide into the region this evening and remain in
place through tomorrow. 500mb temperatures within the core of the
trof are on the order of -30C or cooler which is leading to
steepening lapse rates and potential for showers. Winds this
afternoon are helping to bring drier air in the lee of the
Cascades and Basin which will keep a bulk of the shower activity
focusing on the mountains and adjoining outer reaches of the
Basin. So far there has not been a lightning strike in WA/ID (just
across the border in BC) but convection continues to increase and
a few strikes are a strong possibility with the best chances in
the northern and eastern mountains. A Puget Sound Convergence Zone
has become established and per the HRRR, should continue through
much of this evening into tonight. Depending on where this narrow
bands swings north and south, it looks promising for some snow
accumulations to impact Stevens Pass and possible east into
locations like Plain, Coles Corner, and perhaps Leavenworth.
Another feature we are closely monitoring is a second midlevel
circulation or vort max near 130W. Earlier model runs brought this
feature near the WA/OR border then through the Blues...Palouse
/L-C Valley...and into the Central Panhandle...but satellite
trends and latest RUC suggest this feature will take a southward
track through Oregon.

Temperatures will be cool overnight with several locations within
the northern valleys dipping below the freezing mark. This includes
locations like Winthrop, Omak, Republic, Deer Park, Ione, and
Priest Lake. Communities along and north of I-90 within the Idaho
Panhandle could also be close to freezing for a short period of
time Wednesday morning but confidence is lower with the potential
for cloud cover.

Following a few hours of warming Wednesday, look for widely scattered
showers to blossom across a majority of the region. The highest
concentration of activity will focus along and east of a line from
Republic to Pullman but any number of midlevel disturbances coming
across the Cascades could lead to clusters of activity. The
atmosphere will be cooler compared to Tuesday and most shower
activity will fall as a combination of rain and snow pellets. This
lowers the threat for thunder as the thermal characteristics
within the cloud will not be as favorable for charge separation.
There is a small chance for lightning but should be less than
Tuesday...which has yet to materialize. Winds will become low-end
breezy Wednesday but several magnitudes lower than Tuesday. High
temperatures will only warm into the 50s...coming in near to just
shy of typical values for April 1st. /sb

Wednesday night through Friday night...A typical active spring
weather pattern will continue for the rest of the work week.
Latest models are in decent agreement in depicting the slow exit
of the current upper level trough through Thursday before a short
wave ridge builds in for an ill defined/less showery break period
Thursday night and Friday followed by the arrival of the next cold
front Friday night.

Thursday will feature slightly cooler than normal high and low
temperatures...probable sunbreaks over much of the area but also
a continuing chance of scattered hit-and-miss showers east of a
line from Omak to Walla Walla with a stray short lived garden
variety spring thunderstorm thrown into the mix in the northeast
mountains and Idaho Panhandle.

The main threat during this period will be the possibility of
freezing temperatures Thursday morning and again on Friday morning
over most of the region. The lowest elevation locations of
Wenatchee...Moses lake and the L-C valley will also be at risk for
freezing and ordinarily this early in the year freezes are not
uncommon...however the unusual warmth of the past month has
stimulated some anomalously early budding and blooming in some of
these areas. As the forecast for Thursday morning`s low
temperatures is refined on subsequent shifts an early season
Freeze Warning may be necessary for these low elevation
locations.

Friday will feature the approach of the next trough and while the
cold front will hold off until Friday evening...a weak mid level
warm front is suggested by the models setting up over the
northeastern zones and panhandle during the day Friday. Not much
actual precipitation is expected but mid level and high clouds
will increase during the day with mid-range chances of light rain
mainly over the north. The actual cold front will pass through
Friday night with a better chance of valley rain and mountain
snow...with breezier conditions behind the front promoting warmer
overnight lows by dawn Saturday. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: An upper level trough will be main
weather feature for the weekend and into early next week. Both
the GFS and ECWMF are very similar on handling this feature as it
sinks south from the Gulf of AK south to the Washington coast
Saturday and Sunday, and then weakens and opens up as it swings
inland for Monday. Broad troughiness lingers into Tuesday. This
will keep temperatures near seasonal normals and showery
conditions through this period. Made some slight chances to the
sensible weather of the forecast. The progress of the upper level
low seems slower than seen yesterday, which would yield to a
slower evolution of the shower development and a slower cool down
of the temperatures. Most showers will be diurnally driven,
peaking in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. As the low
digs south, the main brunt of the shower activity shifts south for
Sunday, highlighting the southern Cascades and the Blue mountains.
Then Monday and into Tuesday, the convection returns to the
diurnal trends concentrating in the mountains. Snow levels will
waffle from the valley floors at night and into the mountains
during the day, so precipitation will switch to snow at night with
minor accumulations possible, to a rain/snow/graupel mix during
the afternoon hours. What this equates to is typically spring like
weather for the Inland Northwest. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold upper level trof will promote scattered showers
and a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly this evening and
again Wednesday aft/eve during peak daytime heating. Convection this
evening are expected to be confined mainly in the mountains due to
strong downslope flow off the Cascades. The best chance for an
isolated thunderstorm will be near the Canadian Border around
Metaline Falls and Bonners Ferry. Windy conditions will subside
this evening around 02-04z as pressure gradients decrease and
mixing potential decreases. Several type of precipitation are
possible with these showers this evening as well as Wednesday
afternoon...including rain...snow...small hail...and graupel.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  29  52  31  54 /  10  50  20  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  31  51  28  50  30  54 /  10  60  30  30  30  20
Pullman        34  49  30  49  32  54 /  20  40  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       37  55  33  54  34  59 /  30  40  20  20  10  10
Colville       33  55  29  55  31  55 /  30  40  20  20  10  30
Sandpoint      31  51  27  50  28  52 /  30  60  20  40  30  40
Kellogg        31  45  29  45  31  50 /  30  60  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     37  60  30  59  31  59 /  10  20   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      38  58  34  59  37  58 /  20  20   0  10  10  20
Omak           32  57  30  59  32  58 /  10  30  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 312159
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER THROUGH SNOHOMISH AND
KING COUNTIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS FROM THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY AT STEVENS PASS...AND
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 4000 FT BUT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3000 FT TONIGHT. LESS SNOW
IS EXPECTED AT SNOQUALMIE PASS WITH 1-3 INCHES.

THERE IS STILL A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW STRIKES IN EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
ADMIRALTY INLET...AND A CALL FROM A SPOTTER IN NORTH BEND REPORTING
THUNDER. SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIER CELLS.
T-STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLIPS THROUGH WESTERN WA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...SIMILAR TO TODAY.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS DRIER ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL ALSO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO
NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THU NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR BY THE AFTERNOON. 33

.LONG TERM...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFFSHORE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO WESTERN WA FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUE FOR MORE
RAIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SO FAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A SOMEWHAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THE
AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE AND GENERALLY MOIST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT
03Z. AN AREA OF MORE DEVELOPED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER W WA AT 21Z...WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE AREA STILL ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE. THE SHOWER BAND SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY E OF THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER N PUGET SOUND MAY CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS ARE PREDOMINANTLY VFR SCT-BKN035-060. CIGS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY TO
MVFR IN SHOWERS.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO NW ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS W WA. THE
GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NAM HIGH
RES SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE...SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

KSEA...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS PUGET SOUND THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z. THIS WILL KEEP CIGS VFR BKN030-050...BUT CIGS COULD STILL
LOWER BRIEFLY TO BKN020-030 IF A SHOWER GOES RIGHT OVER THE
TERMINAL. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO SCT-BKN050-060 LATER THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SW 5-15 KT BUT GUSTS TO 22 KT ARE POSSIBLE
AND THE WINDS MAY SHIFT AROUND AS SHOWERS CROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED HIGHER GUSTS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS IN THE STRAIT HAVE REMAINED BELOW
GALE FORCE TODAY...BUT A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE BRIEF PERIODS GALE FORCE WINDS
OR GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AND
ANY GALE FORCE WINDS THAT OCCUR WILL BE BRIEF.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP FOR THE REST OF THE INLAND WATERS
DUE PRIMARILY TO WIND GUSTS IN THE SCA RANGE. WINDS WILL EASE THIS
EVENING.

THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS EXTENDED OVER ALL THE COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL 8 PM. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE THE SWELL SUBSIDING TO 9 FT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH CURRENT BUOY OBS ARE STILL SHOWING 10 FEET AT
TIMES...THE EXTENSION ALLOWS A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE SEAS TO
SUBSIDE.

A SURFACE RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FLOW MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BRIEF SCA W WINDS IN THE STRAIT.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS W WA ON
FRIDAY...WITH SCA WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
     COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 312159
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER THROUGH SNOHOMISH AND
KING COUNTIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS FROM THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY AT STEVENS PASS...AND
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 4000 FT BUT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3000 FT TONIGHT. LESS SNOW
IS EXPECTED AT SNOQUALMIE PASS WITH 1-3 INCHES.

THERE IS STILL A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW STRIKES IN EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
ADMIRALTY INLET...AND A CALL FROM A SPOTTER IN NORTH BEND REPORTING
THUNDER. SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIER CELLS.
T-STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLIPS THROUGH WESTERN WA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...SIMILAR TO TODAY.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS DRIER ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL ALSO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO
NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THU NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR BY THE AFTERNOON. 33

.LONG TERM...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFFSHORE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO WESTERN WA FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUE FOR MORE
RAIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SO FAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A SOMEWHAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THE
AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE AND GENERALLY MOIST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT
03Z. AN AREA OF MORE DEVELOPED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER W WA AT 21Z...WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE AREA STILL ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE. THE SHOWER BAND SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY E OF THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. A CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER N PUGET SOUND MAY CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS ARE PREDOMINANTLY VFR SCT-BKN035-060. CIGS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY TO
MVFR IN SHOWERS.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO NW ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS W WA. THE
GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NAM HIGH
RES SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE...SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

KSEA...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS PUGET SOUND THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z. THIS WILL KEEP CIGS VFR BKN030-050...BUT CIGS COULD STILL
LOWER BRIEFLY TO BKN020-030 IF A SHOWER GOES RIGHT OVER THE
TERMINAL. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO SCT-BKN050-060 LATER THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SW 5-15 KT BUT GUSTS TO 22 KT ARE POSSIBLE
AND THE WINDS MAY SHIFT AROUND AS SHOWERS CROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED HIGHER GUSTS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS IN THE STRAIT HAVE REMAINED BELOW
GALE FORCE TODAY...BUT A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE BRIEF PERIODS GALE FORCE WINDS
OR GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AND
ANY GALE FORCE WINDS THAT OCCUR WILL BE BRIEF.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP FOR THE REST OF THE INLAND WATERS
DUE PRIMARILY TO WIND GUSTS IN THE SCA RANGE. WINDS WILL EASE THIS
EVENING.

THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS EXTENDED OVER ALL THE COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL 8 PM. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE THE SWELL SUBSIDING TO 9 FT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH CURRENT BUOY OBS ARE STILL SHOWING 10 FEET AT
TIMES...THE EXTENSION ALLOWS A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE SEAS TO
SUBSIDE.

A SURFACE RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FLOW MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BRIEF SCA W WINDS IN THE STRAIT.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS W WA ON
FRIDAY...WITH SCA WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
     COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KOTX 312121
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and ocassionally showery spring-like weather pattern
will continue through the week and into the weekend. Widespread
freezing temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday morning.
Then anticipate more seasonal temperatures by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow: A cool spring-like upper-level trof will
continue to slide into the region this evening and remain in
place through tomorrow. 500mb temperatures within the core of the
trof are on the order of -30C or cooler which is leading to
steepening lapse rates and potential for showers. Winds this
afternoon are helping to bring drier air in the lee of the
Cascades and Basin which will keep a bulk of the shower activity
focusing on the mountains and adjoining outer reaches of the
Basin. So far there has not been a lightning strike in WA/ID (just
across the border in BC) but convection continues to increase and
a few strikes are a strong possibility with the best chances in
the northern and eastern mountains. A Puget Sound Convergence Zone
has become established and per the HRRR, should continue through
much of this evening into tonight. Depending on where this narrow
bands swings north and south, it looks promising for some snow
accumulations to impact Stevens Pass and possible east into
locations like Plain, Coles Corner, and perhaps Leavenworth.
Another feature we are closely monitoring is a second midlevel
circulation or vort max near 130W. Earlier model runs brought this
feature near the WA/OR border then through the Blues...Palouse
/L-C Valley...and into the Central Panhandle...but satellite
trends and latest RUC suggest this feature will take a southward
track through Oregon.

Temperatures will be cool overnight with several locations within
the northern valleys dipping below the freezing mark. This includes
locations like Winthrop, Omak, Republic, Deer Park, Ione, and
Priest Lake. Communities along and north of I-90 within the Idaho
Panhandle could also be close to freezing for a short period of
time Wednesday morning but confidence is lower with the potential
for cloud cover.

Following a few hours of warming Wednesday, look for widely scattered
showers to blossom across a majority of the region. The highest
concentration of activity will focus along and east of a line from
Republic to Pullman but any number of midlevel disturbances coming
across the Cascades could lead to clusters of activity. The
atmosphere will be cooler compared to Tuesday and most shower
activity will fall as a combination of rain and snow pellets. This
lowers the threat for thunder as the thermal characteristics
within the cloud will not be as favorable for charge separation.
There is a small chance for lightning but should be less than
Tuesday...which has yet to materialize. Winds will become low-end
breezy Wednesday but several magnitudes lower than Tuesday. High
temperatures will only warm into the 50s...coming in near to just
shy of typical values for April 1st. /sb

Wednesday night through Friday night...A typical active spring
weather pattern will continue for the rest of the work week.
Latest models are in decent agreement in depicting the slow exit
of the current upper level trough through Thursday before a short
wave ridge builds in for an ill defined/less showery break period
Thursday night and Friday followed by the arrival of the next cold
front Friday night.

Thursday will feature slightly cooler than normal high and low
temperatures...probable sunbreaks over much of the area but also
a continuing chance of scattered hit-and-miss showers east of a
line from Omak to Walla Walla with a stray short lived garden
variety spring thunderstorm thrown into the mix in the northeast
mountains and Idaho Panhandle.

The main threat during this period will be the possibility of
freezing temperatures Thursday morning and again on Friday morning
over most of the region. The lowest elevation locations of
Wenatchee...Moses lake and the L-C valley will also be at risk for
freezing and ordinarily this early in the year freezes are not
uncommon...however the unusual warmth of the past month has
stimulated some anomalously early budding and blooming in some of
these areas. As the forecast for Thursday morning`s low
temperatures is refined on subsequent shifts an early season
Freeze Warning may be necessary for these low elevation
locations.

Friday will feature the approach of the next trough and while the
cold front will hold off until Friday evening...a weak mid level
warm front is suggested by the models setting up over the
northeastern zones and panhandle during the day Friday. Not much
actual precipitation is expected but mid level and high clouds
will increase during the day with mid-range chances of light rain
mainly over the north. The actual cold front will pass through
Friday night with a better chance of valley rain and mountain
snow...with breezier conditions behind the front promoting warmer
overnight lows by dawn Saturday. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: An upper level trough will be main
weather feature for the weekend and into early next week. Both
the GFS and ECWMF are very similar on handling this feature as it
sinks south from the Gulf of AK south to the Washington coast
Saturday and Sunday, and then weakens and opens up as it swings
inland for Monday. Broad troughiness lingers into Tuesday. This
will keep temperatures near seasonal normals and showery
conditions through this period. Made some slight chances to the
sensible weather of the forecast. The progress of the upper level
low seems slower than seen yesterday, which would yield to a
slower evolution of the shower development and a slower cool down
of the temperatures. Most showers will be diurnally driven,
peaking in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. As the low
digs south, the main brunt of the shower activity shifts south for
Sunday, highlighting the southern Cascades and the Blue mountains.
Then Monday and into Tuesday, the convection returns to the
diurnal trends concentrating in the mountains. Snow levels will
waffle from the valley floors at night and into the mountains
during the day, so precipitation will switch to snow at night with
minor accumulations possible, to a rain/snow/graupel mix during
the afternoon hours. What this equates to is typically spring like
weather for the Inland Northwest. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front has shifted into Idaho with scattered light
showers and occasional MVFR cigs. Strong gusty winds have already
developed for most terminals and will continue to increase during
the afternoon hours before relaxing this evening and overnight.
Afternoon instability will promote isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms with the highest threat over the northern/eastern
mountains. A second wave currently offshore will renew the threat
for showers overnight for SE WA and vcnty of KPUW/KLWS. /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  29  52  31  54 /  10  50  20  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  31  51  28  50  30  54 /  10  60  30  30  30  20
Pullman        34  49  30  49  32  54 /  20  40  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       37  55  33  54  34  59 /  30  40  20  20  10  10
Colville       33  55  29  55  31  55 /  30  40  20  20  10  30
Sandpoint      31  51  27  50  28  52 /  30  60  20  40  30  40
Kellogg        31  45  29  45  31  50 /  30  60  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     37  60  30  59  31  59 /  10  20   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      38  58  34  59  37  58 /  20  20   0  10  10  20
Omak           32  57  30  59  32  58 /  10  30  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 312121
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and ocassionally showery spring-like weather pattern
will continue through the week and into the weekend. Widespread
freezing temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday morning.
Then anticipate more seasonal temperatures by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow: A cool spring-like upper-level trof will
continue to slide into the region this evening and remain in
place through tomorrow. 500mb temperatures within the core of the
trof are on the order of -30C or cooler which is leading to
steepening lapse rates and potential for showers. Winds this
afternoon are helping to bring drier air in the lee of the
Cascades and Basin which will keep a bulk of the shower activity
focusing on the mountains and adjoining outer reaches of the
Basin. So far there has not been a lightning strike in WA/ID (just
across the border in BC) but convection continues to increase and
a few strikes are a strong possibility with the best chances in
the northern and eastern mountains. A Puget Sound Convergence Zone
has become established and per the HRRR, should continue through
much of this evening into tonight. Depending on where this narrow
bands swings north and south, it looks promising for some snow
accumulations to impact Stevens Pass and possible east into
locations like Plain, Coles Corner, and perhaps Leavenworth.
Another feature we are closely monitoring is a second midlevel
circulation or vort max near 130W. Earlier model runs brought this
feature near the WA/OR border then through the Blues...Palouse
/L-C Valley...and into the Central Panhandle...but satellite
trends and latest RUC suggest this feature will take a southward
track through Oregon.

Temperatures will be cool overnight with several locations within
the northern valleys dipping below the freezing mark. This includes
locations like Winthrop, Omak, Republic, Deer Park, Ione, and
Priest Lake. Communities along and north of I-90 within the Idaho
Panhandle could also be close to freezing for a short period of
time Wednesday morning but confidence is lower with the potential
for cloud cover.

Following a few hours of warming Wednesday, look for widely scattered
showers to blossom across a majority of the region. The highest
concentration of activity will focus along and east of a line from
Republic to Pullman but any number of midlevel disturbances coming
across the Cascades could lead to clusters of activity. The
atmosphere will be cooler compared to Tuesday and most shower
activity will fall as a combination of rain and snow pellets. This
lowers the threat for thunder as the thermal characteristics
within the cloud will not be as favorable for charge separation.
There is a small chance for lightning but should be less than
Tuesday...which has yet to materialize. Winds will become low-end
breezy Wednesday but several magnitudes lower than Tuesday. High
temperatures will only warm into the 50s...coming in near to just
shy of typical values for April 1st. /sb

Wednesday night through Friday night...A typical active spring
weather pattern will continue for the rest of the work week.
Latest models are in decent agreement in depicting the slow exit
of the current upper level trough through Thursday before a short
wave ridge builds in for an ill defined/less showery break period
Thursday night and Friday followed by the arrival of the next cold
front Friday night.

Thursday will feature slightly cooler than normal high and low
temperatures...probable sunbreaks over much of the area but also
a continuing chance of scattered hit-and-miss showers east of a
line from Omak to Walla Walla with a stray short lived garden
variety spring thunderstorm thrown into the mix in the northeast
mountains and Idaho Panhandle.

The main threat during this period will be the possibility of
freezing temperatures Thursday morning and again on Friday morning
over most of the region. The lowest elevation locations of
Wenatchee...Moses lake and the L-C valley will also be at risk for
freezing and ordinarily this early in the year freezes are not
uncommon...however the unusual warmth of the past month has
stimulated some anomalously early budding and blooming in some of
these areas. As the forecast for Thursday morning`s low
temperatures is refined on subsequent shifts an early season
Freeze Warning may be necessary for these low elevation
locations.

Friday will feature the approach of the next trough and while the
cold front will hold off until Friday evening...a weak mid level
warm front is suggested by the models setting up over the
northeastern zones and panhandle during the day Friday. Not much
actual precipitation is expected but mid level and high clouds
will increase during the day with mid-range chances of light rain
mainly over the north. The actual cold front will pass through
Friday night with a better chance of valley rain and mountain
snow...with breezier conditions behind the front promoting warmer
overnight lows by dawn Saturday. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: An upper level trough will be main
weather feature for the weekend and into early next week. Both
the GFS and ECWMF are very similar on handling this feature as it
sinks south from the Gulf of AK south to the Washington coast
Saturday and Sunday, and then weakens and opens up as it swings
inland for Monday. Broad troughiness lingers into Tuesday. This
will keep temperatures near seasonal normals and showery
conditions through this period. Made some slight chances to the
sensible weather of the forecast. The progress of the upper level
low seems slower than seen yesterday, which would yield to a
slower evolution of the shower development and a slower cool down
of the temperatures. Most showers will be diurnally driven,
peaking in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. As the low
digs south, the main brunt of the shower activity shifts south for
Sunday, highlighting the southern Cascades and the Blue mountains.
Then Monday and into Tuesday, the convection returns to the
diurnal trends concentrating in the mountains. Snow levels will
waffle from the valley floors at night and into the mountains
during the day, so precipitation will switch to snow at night with
minor accumulations possible, to a rain/snow/graupel mix during
the afternoon hours. What this equates to is typically spring like
weather for the Inland Northwest. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front has shifted into Idaho with scattered light
showers and occasional MVFR cigs. Strong gusty winds have already
developed for most terminals and will continue to increase during
the afternoon hours before relaxing this evening and overnight.
Afternoon instability will promote isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms with the highest threat over the northern/eastern
mountains. A second wave currently offshore will renew the threat
for showers overnight for SE WA and vcnty of KPUW/KLWS. /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  29  52  31  54 /  10  50  20  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  31  51  28  50  30  54 /  10  60  30  30  30  20
Pullman        34  49  30  49  32  54 /  20  40  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       37  55  33  54  34  59 /  30  40  20  20  10  10
Colville       33  55  29  55  31  55 /  30  40  20  20  10  30
Sandpoint      31  51  27  50  28  52 /  30  60  20  40  30  40
Kellogg        31  45  29  45  31  50 /  30  60  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     37  60  30  59  31  59 /  10  20   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      38  58  34  59  37  58 /  20  20   0  10  10  20
Omak           32  57  30  59  32  58 /  10  30  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 312121
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and ocassionally showery spring-like weather pattern
will continue through the week and into the weekend. Widespread
freezing temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday morning.
Then anticipate more seasonal temperatures by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow: A cool spring-like upper-level trof will
continue to slide into the region this evening and remain in
place through tomorrow. 500mb temperatures within the core of the
trof are on the order of -30C or cooler which is leading to
steepening lapse rates and potential for showers. Winds this
afternoon are helping to bring drier air in the lee of the
Cascades and Basin which will keep a bulk of the shower activity
focusing on the mountains and adjoining outer reaches of the
Basin. So far there has not been a lightning strike in WA/ID (just
across the border in BC) but convection continues to increase and
a few strikes are a strong possibility with the best chances in
the northern and eastern mountains. A Puget Sound Convergence Zone
has become established and per the HRRR, should continue through
much of this evening into tonight. Depending on where this narrow
bands swings north and south, it looks promising for some snow
accumulations to impact Stevens Pass and possible east into
locations like Plain, Coles Corner, and perhaps Leavenworth.
Another feature we are closely monitoring is a second midlevel
circulation or vort max near 130W. Earlier model runs brought this
feature near the WA/OR border then through the Blues...Palouse
/L-C Valley...and into the Central Panhandle...but satellite
trends and latest RUC suggest this feature will take a southward
track through Oregon.

Temperatures will be cool overnight with several locations within
the northern valleys dipping below the freezing mark. This includes
locations like Winthrop, Omak, Republic, Deer Park, Ione, and
Priest Lake. Communities along and north of I-90 within the Idaho
Panhandle could also be close to freezing for a short period of
time Wednesday morning but confidence is lower with the potential
for cloud cover.

Following a few hours of warming Wednesday, look for widely scattered
showers to blossom across a majority of the region. The highest
concentration of activity will focus along and east of a line from
Republic to Pullman but any number of midlevel disturbances coming
across the Cascades could lead to clusters of activity. The
atmosphere will be cooler compared to Tuesday and most shower
activity will fall as a combination of rain and snow pellets. This
lowers the threat for thunder as the thermal characteristics
within the cloud will not be as favorable for charge separation.
There is a small chance for lightning but should be less than
Tuesday...which has yet to materialize. Winds will become low-end
breezy Wednesday but several magnitudes lower than Tuesday. High
temperatures will only warm into the 50s...coming in near to just
shy of typical values for April 1st. /sb

Wednesday night through Friday night...A typical active spring
weather pattern will continue for the rest of the work week.
Latest models are in decent agreement in depicting the slow exit
of the current upper level trough through Thursday before a short
wave ridge builds in for an ill defined/less showery break period
Thursday night and Friday followed by the arrival of the next cold
front Friday night.

Thursday will feature slightly cooler than normal high and low
temperatures...probable sunbreaks over much of the area but also
a continuing chance of scattered hit-and-miss showers east of a
line from Omak to Walla Walla with a stray short lived garden
variety spring thunderstorm thrown into the mix in the northeast
mountains and Idaho Panhandle.

The main threat during this period will be the possibility of
freezing temperatures Thursday morning and again on Friday morning
over most of the region. The lowest elevation locations of
Wenatchee...Moses lake and the L-C valley will also be at risk for
freezing and ordinarily this early in the year freezes are not
uncommon...however the unusual warmth of the past month has
stimulated some anomalously early budding and blooming in some of
these areas. As the forecast for Thursday morning`s low
temperatures is refined on subsequent shifts an early season
Freeze Warning may be necessary for these low elevation
locations.

Friday will feature the approach of the next trough and while the
cold front will hold off until Friday evening...a weak mid level
warm front is suggested by the models setting up over the
northeastern zones and panhandle during the day Friday. Not much
actual precipitation is expected but mid level and high clouds
will increase during the day with mid-range chances of light rain
mainly over the north. The actual cold front will pass through
Friday night with a better chance of valley rain and mountain
snow...with breezier conditions behind the front promoting warmer
overnight lows by dawn Saturday. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: An upper level trough will be main
weather feature for the weekend and into early next week. Both
the GFS and ECWMF are very similar on handling this feature as it
sinks south from the Gulf of AK south to the Washington coast
Saturday and Sunday, and then weakens and opens up as it swings
inland for Monday. Broad troughiness lingers into Tuesday. This
will keep temperatures near seasonal normals and showery
conditions through this period. Made some slight chances to the
sensible weather of the forecast. The progress of the upper level
low seems slower than seen yesterday, which would yield to a
slower evolution of the shower development and a slower cool down
of the temperatures. Most showers will be diurnally driven,
peaking in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. As the low
digs south, the main brunt of the shower activity shifts south for
Sunday, highlighting the southern Cascades and the Blue mountains.
Then Monday and into Tuesday, the convection returns to the
diurnal trends concentrating in the mountains. Snow levels will
waffle from the valley floors at night and into the mountains
during the day, so precipitation will switch to snow at night with
minor accumulations possible, to a rain/snow/graupel mix during
the afternoon hours. What this equates to is typically spring like
weather for the Inland Northwest. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front has shifted into Idaho with scattered light
showers and occasional MVFR cigs. Strong gusty winds have already
developed for most terminals and will continue to increase during
the afternoon hours before relaxing this evening and overnight.
Afternoon instability will promote isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms with the highest threat over the northern/eastern
mountains. A second wave currently offshore will renew the threat
for showers overnight for SE WA and vcnty of KPUW/KLWS. /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  29  52  31  54 /  10  50  20  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  31  51  28  50  30  54 /  10  60  30  30  30  20
Pullman        34  49  30  49  32  54 /  20  40  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       37  55  33  54  34  59 /  30  40  20  20  10  10
Colville       33  55  29  55  31  55 /  30  40  20  20  10  30
Sandpoint      31  51  27  50  28  52 /  30  60  20  40  30  40
Kellogg        31  45  29  45  31  50 /  30  60  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     37  60  30  59  31  59 /  10  20   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      38  58  34  59  37  58 /  20  20   0  10  10  20
Omak           32  57  30  59  32  58 /  10  30  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 312121
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and ocassionally showery spring-like weather pattern
will continue through the week and into the weekend. Widespread
freezing temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday morning.
Then anticipate more seasonal temperatures by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow: A cool spring-like upper-level trof will
continue to slide into the region this evening and remain in
place through tomorrow. 500mb temperatures within the core of the
trof are on the order of -30C or cooler which is leading to
steepening lapse rates and potential for showers. Winds this
afternoon are helping to bring drier air in the lee of the
Cascades and Basin which will keep a bulk of the shower activity
focusing on the mountains and adjoining outer reaches of the
Basin. So far there has not been a lightning strike in WA/ID (just
across the border in BC) but convection continues to increase and
a few strikes are a strong possibility with the best chances in
the northern and eastern mountains. A Puget Sound Convergence Zone
has become established and per the HRRR, should continue through
much of this evening into tonight. Depending on where this narrow
bands swings north and south, it looks promising for some snow
accumulations to impact Stevens Pass and possible east into
locations like Plain, Coles Corner, and perhaps Leavenworth.
Another feature we are closely monitoring is a second midlevel
circulation or vort max near 130W. Earlier model runs brought this
feature near the WA/OR border then through the Blues...Palouse
/L-C Valley...and into the Central Panhandle...but satellite
trends and latest RUC suggest this feature will take a southward
track through Oregon.

Temperatures will be cool overnight with several locations within
the northern valleys dipping below the freezing mark. This includes
locations like Winthrop, Omak, Republic, Deer Park, Ione, and
Priest Lake. Communities along and north of I-90 within the Idaho
Panhandle could also be close to freezing for a short period of
time Wednesday morning but confidence is lower with the potential
for cloud cover.

Following a few hours of warming Wednesday, look for widely scattered
showers to blossom across a majority of the region. The highest
concentration of activity will focus along and east of a line from
Republic to Pullman but any number of midlevel disturbances coming
across the Cascades could lead to clusters of activity. The
atmosphere will be cooler compared to Tuesday and most shower
activity will fall as a combination of rain and snow pellets. This
lowers the threat for thunder as the thermal characteristics
within the cloud will not be as favorable for charge separation.
There is a small chance for lightning but should be less than
Tuesday...which has yet to materialize. Winds will become low-end
breezy Wednesday but several magnitudes lower than Tuesday. High
temperatures will only warm into the 50s...coming in near to just
shy of typical values for April 1st. /sb

Wednesday night through Friday night...A typical active spring
weather pattern will continue for the rest of the work week.
Latest models are in decent agreement in depicting the slow exit
of the current upper level trough through Thursday before a short
wave ridge builds in for an ill defined/less showery break period
Thursday night and Friday followed by the arrival of the next cold
front Friday night.

Thursday will feature slightly cooler than normal high and low
temperatures...probable sunbreaks over much of the area but also
a continuing chance of scattered hit-and-miss showers east of a
line from Omak to Walla Walla with a stray short lived garden
variety spring thunderstorm thrown into the mix in the northeast
mountains and Idaho Panhandle.

The main threat during this period will be the possibility of
freezing temperatures Thursday morning and again on Friday morning
over most of the region. The lowest elevation locations of
Wenatchee...Moses lake and the L-C valley will also be at risk for
freezing and ordinarily this early in the year freezes are not
uncommon...however the unusual warmth of the past month has
stimulated some anomalously early budding and blooming in some of
these areas. As the forecast for Thursday morning`s low
temperatures is refined on subsequent shifts an early season
Freeze Warning may be necessary for these low elevation
locations.

Friday will feature the approach of the next trough and while the
cold front will hold off until Friday evening...a weak mid level
warm front is suggested by the models setting up over the
northeastern zones and panhandle during the day Friday. Not much
actual precipitation is expected but mid level and high clouds
will increase during the day with mid-range chances of light rain
mainly over the north. The actual cold front will pass through
Friday night with a better chance of valley rain and mountain
snow...with breezier conditions behind the front promoting warmer
overnight lows by dawn Saturday. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: An upper level trough will be main
weather feature for the weekend and into early next week. Both
the GFS and ECWMF are very similar on handling this feature as it
sinks south from the Gulf of AK south to the Washington coast
Saturday and Sunday, and then weakens and opens up as it swings
inland for Monday. Broad troughiness lingers into Tuesday. This
will keep temperatures near seasonal normals and showery
conditions through this period. Made some slight chances to the
sensible weather of the forecast. The progress of the upper level
low seems slower than seen yesterday, which would yield to a
slower evolution of the shower development and a slower cool down
of the temperatures. Most showers will be diurnally driven,
peaking in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. As the low
digs south, the main brunt of the shower activity shifts south for
Sunday, highlighting the southern Cascades and the Blue mountains.
Then Monday and into Tuesday, the convection returns to the
diurnal trends concentrating in the mountains. Snow levels will
waffle from the valley floors at night and into the mountains
during the day, so precipitation will switch to snow at night with
minor accumulations possible, to a rain/snow/graupel mix during
the afternoon hours. What this equates to is typically spring like
weather for the Inland Northwest. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front has shifted into Idaho with scattered light
showers and occasional MVFR cigs. Strong gusty winds have already
developed for most terminals and will continue to increase during
the afternoon hours before relaxing this evening and overnight.
Afternoon instability will promote isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms with the highest threat over the northern/eastern
mountains. A second wave currently offshore will renew the threat
for showers overnight for SE WA and vcnty of KPUW/KLWS. /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  29  52  31  54 /  10  50  20  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  31  51  28  50  30  54 /  10  60  30  30  30  20
Pullman        34  49  30  49  32  54 /  20  40  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       37  55  33  54  34  59 /  30  40  20  20  10  10
Colville       33  55  29  55  31  55 /  30  40  20  20  10  30
Sandpoint      31  51  27  50  28  52 /  30  60  20  40  30  40
Kellogg        31  45  29  45  31  50 /  30  60  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     37  60  30  59  31  59 /  10  20   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      38  58  34  59  37  58 /  20  20   0  10  10  20
Omak           32  57  30  59  32  58 /  10  30  10  10  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 312032
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
133 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL WERE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FIRST COOL UPPER TROUGH IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVED ACROSS.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURE OFF THE OREGON
COAST NEARING 130W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WAS OCCURRING WITH TODAYS
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW TONIGHT AND WED
WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...SO SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CASCADES ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED LATE WED
REINFORCES THE COLD AIR ALOFT FROM TODAY. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES...ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WED. WILL ALSO RETAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT THE TIME OF MAX INSTABILITY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP DOWN WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THU. A SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NW OREGON KEEPING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODELS CONTINEU TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THU DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MAINLY OVER THE NW PART OF
THE AREA.

12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS...ESP THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE TAKEN A
DECIDELY FASTER TRACK WITH THE FRONT ON FRI. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...INCLUDING THE GEM AND NAM...WILL SPEED UP THE
INLAND SPREAD OF POPS FRI AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...AND DOWN TO THE
FOOTHILLS WITH SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AROUND 2500 FEET. MODEL
AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER TODAY WITH THE POSITION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
INCREASINGLY COMMON IN THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME
SHADOWING IN THE VALLEY. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO
THESE CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE DEEPER CONVECTION END WITH
SUNSET BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD BUILDING LOW CLOUD DECK FROM
OFF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AFFECTING KTTD AND KPDX LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A REPEAT OF TODAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS DEVELOP 015-020 LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9
FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 312032
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
133 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL WERE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FIRST COOL UPPER TROUGH IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVED ACROSS.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURE OFF THE OREGON
COAST NEARING 130W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WAS OCCURRING WITH TODAYS
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW TONIGHT AND WED
WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...SO SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CASCADES ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED LATE WED
REINFORCES THE COLD AIR ALOFT FROM TODAY. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES...ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WED. WILL ALSO RETAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT THE TIME OF MAX INSTABILITY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP DOWN WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THU. A SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NW OREGON KEEPING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODELS CONTINEU TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THU DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MAINLY OVER THE NW PART OF
THE AREA.

12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS...ESP THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE TAKEN A
DECIDELY FASTER TRACK WITH THE FRONT ON FRI. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...INCLUDING THE GEM AND NAM...WILL SPEED UP THE
INLAND SPREAD OF POPS FRI AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...AND DOWN TO THE
FOOTHILLS WITH SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AROUND 2500 FEET. MODEL
AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER TODAY WITH THE POSITION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
INCREASINGLY COMMON IN THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME
SHADOWING IN THE VALLEY. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO
THESE CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE DEEPER CONVECTION END WITH
SUNSET BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD BUILDING LOW CLOUD DECK FROM
OFF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AFFECTING KTTD AND KPDX LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A REPEAT OF TODAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS DEVELOP 015-020 LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9
FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312032
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
133 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL WERE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FIRST COOL UPPER TROUGH IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVED ACROSS.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURE OFF THE OREGON
COAST NEARING 130W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WAS OCCURRING WITH TODAYS
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW TONIGHT AND WED
WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...SO SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CASCADES ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED LATE WED
REINFORCES THE COLD AIR ALOFT FROM TODAY. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES...ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WED. WILL ALSO RETAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT THE TIME OF MAX INSTABILITY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP DOWN WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THU. A SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NW OREGON KEEPING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODELS CONTINEU TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THU DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MAINLY OVER THE NW PART OF
THE AREA.

12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS...ESP THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE TAKEN A
DECIDELY FASTER TRACK WITH THE FRONT ON FRI. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...INCLUDING THE GEM AND NAM...WILL SPEED UP THE
INLAND SPREAD OF POPS FRI AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...AND DOWN TO THE
FOOTHILLS WITH SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AROUND 2500 FEET. MODEL
AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER TODAY WITH THE POSITION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
INCREASINGLY COMMON IN THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME
SHADOWING IN THE VALLEY. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO
THESE CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE DEEPER CONVECTION END WITH
SUNSET BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD BUILDING LOW CLOUD DECK FROM
OFF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AFFECTING KTTD AND KPDX LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A REPEAT OF TODAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS DEVELOP 015-020 LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9
FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312032
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
133 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL WERE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FIRST COOL UPPER TROUGH IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVED ACROSS.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURE OFF THE OREGON
COAST NEARING 130W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WAS OCCURRING WITH TODAYS
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW TONIGHT AND WED
WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...SO SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CASCADES ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED LATE WED
REINFORCES THE COLD AIR ALOFT FROM TODAY. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES...ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WED. WILL ALSO RETAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT THE TIME OF MAX INSTABILITY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP DOWN WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THU. A SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NW OREGON KEEPING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODELS CONTINEU TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THU DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MAINLY OVER THE NW PART OF
THE AREA.

12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS...ESP THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE TAKEN A
DECIDELY FASTER TRACK WITH THE FRONT ON FRI. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...INCLUDING THE GEM AND NAM...WILL SPEED UP THE
INLAND SPREAD OF POPS FRI AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...AND DOWN TO THE
FOOTHILLS WITH SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AROUND 2500 FEET. MODEL
AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER TODAY WITH THE POSITION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
INCREASINGLY COMMON IN THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME
SHADOWING IN THE VALLEY. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO
THESE CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE DEEPER CONVECTION END WITH
SUNSET BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD BUILDING LOW CLOUD DECK FROM
OFF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AFFECTING KTTD AND KPDX LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A REPEAT OF TODAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS DEVELOP 015-020 LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9
FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 311810
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1110 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: The cold front continues to slowly work east
through the region with the 1030 AM position roughly from Bonners
Ferry to Moscow and bending back toward Walla Walla. Scattered
light showers have increased ahead of the front but precipitation
amounts have been light and generally between a trace and few
hundreths.

Meanwhile, the cold pool is already over Central WA with isolated
showers developing over Ferry County and a few lightning strikes
just north of the border. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone has
also sprung to life with narrow bands of precipitation already
impacting southern Chelan. Snow has been falling on Stevens Pass
but above freezing temperatures have kept any accumulations to
grassy surfaces.

Winds are picking up behind the front as cooler air spills into
the region and pressure gradients continue to tighten. The 10AM
pressure gradient between PDX-GPI (Portland-Kalispell) is already
up to 12mb and should peak around 15-16mb this afternoon. This
will support sustained winds of 15-30 mph. Winds roughly 4-6K ft
are only on the order of 25-30kts so the threat for gusts in
excess of 40 mph is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front has shifted into Idaho with scattered light
showers and occasional MVFR cigs. Strong gusty winds have already
developed for most terminals and will continue to increase during
the afternoon hours before relaxing this evening and overnight.
Afternoon instability will promote isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms with the highest threat over the northern/eastern
mountains. A second wave currently offshore will renew the threat
for showers overnight for SE WA and vcnty of KPUW/KLWS. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  30  30  30
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  30  20  10
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  20  20  10
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  20  40  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  50  50  30
Moses Lake     61  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20   0   0  10
Wenatchee      61  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20   0  10  10
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 311810
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1110 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: The cold front continues to slowly work east
through the region with the 1030 AM position roughly from Bonners
Ferry to Moscow and bending back toward Walla Walla. Scattered
light showers have increased ahead of the front but precipitation
amounts have been light and generally between a trace and few
hundreths.

Meanwhile, the cold pool is already over Central WA with isolated
showers developing over Ferry County and a few lightning strikes
just north of the border. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone has
also sprung to life with narrow bands of precipitation already
impacting southern Chelan. Snow has been falling on Stevens Pass
but above freezing temperatures have kept any accumulations to
grassy surfaces.

Winds are picking up behind the front as cooler air spills into
the region and pressure gradients continue to tighten. The 10AM
pressure gradient between PDX-GPI (Portland-Kalispell) is already
up to 12mb and should peak around 15-16mb this afternoon. This
will support sustained winds of 15-30 mph. Winds roughly 4-6K ft
are only on the order of 25-30kts so the threat for gusts in
excess of 40 mph is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front has shifted into Idaho with scattered light
showers and occasional MVFR cigs. Strong gusty winds have already
developed for most terminals and will continue to increase during
the afternoon hours before relaxing this evening and overnight.
Afternoon instability will promote isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms with the highest threat over the northern/eastern
mountains. A second wave currently offshore will renew the threat
for showers overnight for SE WA and vcnty of KPUW/KLWS. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  30  30  30
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  30  20  10
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  20  20  10
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  20  40  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  50  50  30
Moses Lake     61  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20   0   0  10
Wenatchee      61  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20   0  10  10
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 311810
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1110 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: The cold front continues to slowly work east
through the region with the 1030 AM position roughly from Bonners
Ferry to Moscow and bending back toward Walla Walla. Scattered
light showers have increased ahead of the front but precipitation
amounts have been light and generally between a trace and few
hundreths.

Meanwhile, the cold pool is already over Central WA with isolated
showers developing over Ferry County and a few lightning strikes
just north of the border. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone has
also sprung to life with narrow bands of precipitation already
impacting southern Chelan. Snow has been falling on Stevens Pass
but above freezing temperatures have kept any accumulations to
grassy surfaces.

Winds are picking up behind the front as cooler air spills into
the region and pressure gradients continue to tighten. The 10AM
pressure gradient between PDX-GPI (Portland-Kalispell) is already
up to 12mb and should peak around 15-16mb this afternoon. This
will support sustained winds of 15-30 mph. Winds roughly 4-6K ft
are only on the order of 25-30kts so the threat for gusts in
excess of 40 mph is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front has shifted into Idaho with scattered light
showers and occasional MVFR cigs. Strong gusty winds have already
developed for most terminals and will continue to increase during
the afternoon hours before relaxing this evening and overnight.
Afternoon instability will promote isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms with the highest threat over the northern/eastern
mountains. A second wave currently offshore will renew the threat
for showers overnight for SE WA and vcnty of KPUW/KLWS. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  30  30  30
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  30  20  10
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  20  20  10
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  20  40  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  50  50  30
Moses Lake     61  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20   0   0  10
Wenatchee      61  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20   0  10  10
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311810
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1110 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: The cold front continues to slowly work east
through the region with the 1030 AM position roughly from Bonners
Ferry to Moscow and bending back toward Walla Walla. Scattered
light showers have increased ahead of the front but precipitation
amounts have been light and generally between a trace and few
hundreths.

Meanwhile, the cold pool is already over Central WA with isolated
showers developing over Ferry County and a few lightning strikes
just north of the border. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone has
also sprung to life with narrow bands of precipitation already
impacting southern Chelan. Snow has been falling on Stevens Pass
but above freezing temperatures have kept any accumulations to
grassy surfaces.

Winds are picking up behind the front as cooler air spills into
the region and pressure gradients continue to tighten. The 10AM
pressure gradient between PDX-GPI (Portland-Kalispell) is already
up to 12mb and should peak around 15-16mb this afternoon. This
will support sustained winds of 15-30 mph. Winds roughly 4-6K ft
are only on the order of 25-30kts so the threat for gusts in
excess of 40 mph is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front has shifted into Idaho with scattered light
showers and occasional MVFR cigs. Strong gusty winds have already
developed for most terminals and will continue to increase during
the afternoon hours before relaxing this evening and overnight.
Afternoon instability will promote isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms with the highest threat over the northern/eastern
mountains. A second wave currently offshore will renew the threat
for showers overnight for SE WA and vcnty of KPUW/KLWS. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  30  30  30
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  30  20  10
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  20  20  10
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  20  40  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  50  50  30
Moses Lake     61  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20   0   0  10
Wenatchee      61  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20   0  10  10
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311810
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1110 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: The cold front continues to slowly work east
through the region with the 1030 AM position roughly from Bonners
Ferry to Moscow and bending back toward Walla Walla. Scattered
light showers have increased ahead of the front but precipitation
amounts have been light and generally between a trace and few
hundreths.

Meanwhile, the cold pool is already over Central WA with isolated
showers developing over Ferry County and a few lightning strikes
just north of the border. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone has
also sprung to life with narrow bands of precipitation already
impacting southern Chelan. Snow has been falling on Stevens Pass
but above freezing temperatures have kept any accumulations to
grassy surfaces.

Winds are picking up behind the front as cooler air spills into
the region and pressure gradients continue to tighten. The 10AM
pressure gradient between PDX-GPI (Portland-Kalispell) is already
up to 12mb and should peak around 15-16mb this afternoon. This
will support sustained winds of 15-30 mph. Winds roughly 4-6K ft
are only on the order of 25-30kts so the threat for gusts in
excess of 40 mph is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front has shifted into Idaho with scattered light
showers and occasional MVFR cigs. Strong gusty winds have already
developed for most terminals and will continue to increase during
the afternoon hours before relaxing this evening and overnight.
Afternoon instability will promote isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms with the highest threat over the northern/eastern
mountains. A second wave currently offshore will renew the threat
for showers overnight for SE WA and vcnty of KPUW/KLWS. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  30  30  30
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  30  20  10
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  20  20  10
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  20  40  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  50  50  30
Moses Lake     61  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20   0   0  10
Wenatchee      61  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20   0  10  10
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311810
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1110 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: The cold front continues to slowly work east
through the region with the 1030 AM position roughly from Bonners
Ferry to Moscow and bending back toward Walla Walla. Scattered
light showers have increased ahead of the front but precipitation
amounts have been light and generally between a trace and few
hundreths.

Meanwhile, the cold pool is already over Central WA with isolated
showers developing over Ferry County and a few lightning strikes
just north of the border. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone has
also sprung to life with narrow bands of precipitation already
impacting southern Chelan. Snow has been falling on Stevens Pass
but above freezing temperatures have kept any accumulations to
grassy surfaces.

Winds are picking up behind the front as cooler air spills into
the region and pressure gradients continue to tighten. The 10AM
pressure gradient between PDX-GPI (Portland-Kalispell) is already
up to 12mb and should peak around 15-16mb this afternoon. This
will support sustained winds of 15-30 mph. Winds roughly 4-6K ft
are only on the order of 25-30kts so the threat for gusts in
excess of 40 mph is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front has shifted into Idaho with scattered light
showers and occasional MVFR cigs. Strong gusty winds have already
developed for most terminals and will continue to increase during
the afternoon hours before relaxing this evening and overnight.
Afternoon instability will promote isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms with the highest threat over the northern/eastern
mountains. A second wave currently offshore will renew the threat
for showers overnight for SE WA and vcnty of KPUW/KLWS. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  30  30  30
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  30  20  10
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  20  20  10
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  20  40  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  50  50  30
Moses Lake     61  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20   0   0  10
Wenatchee      61  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20   0  10  10
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 311604
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
903 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL WAVER THROUGH SNOHOMISH AND KING
COUNTIES TODAY. SHOWERS FROM THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY AT STEVENS PASS.
WASHINGTON DOT OBS AND CAMERAS SHOW SNOW STARTING AT STEVENS PASS
NOW...AND MODELS SHOW THE CONVERGENCE ZONE PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WAS ISSUED TO
COVER THIS SCENARIO. THE SNOW LEVEL IS AROUND 4000 FT BUT WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 3000 FT TONIGHT. HOWEVER LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AT
SNOQUALMIE PASS WITH 1-3 INCHES.

THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE OFFSHORE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL TRACK INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WITH THE COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT T-STORMS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLIPS THROUGH WESTERN WA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...SIMILAR TO TODAY.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS DRIER ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL ALSO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO
NORMAL. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL
AND SHOWERY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A SOMEWHAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THE
AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE AND GENERALLY MOIST WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. AN AREA OF MORE DEVELOPED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE AT
15Z AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST AROUND 19Z AND THE INTERIOR AROUND
23Z. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THIS AREA
OF MORE DEVELOPED SHOWERS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE ONSHORE
FLOW HAS PRODUCED A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER NORTH PUGET SOUND WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING E OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES. CIGS AROUND
CENTRAL AND NORTH PUGET SOUND WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS HANGING
OUT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR OR WORSE. CIGS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
BKN030-050 AND HIGHER. CIGS MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO MVFR AROUND SHOWERS.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 19Z...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
19Z. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN TO THE N WITH MVFR CIGS OVER N
SEATTLE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY 19Z-02Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SW 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
KAM

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD
FRONT...BUT HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. W WINDS IN THE
STRAIT HAVE EASED TO SCA LEVELS AND THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS DROPPED TO 1.2 MB. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING HIGHER WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WHILE WINDS IN THE STRAIT SHOULD BE SUB-GALE FOR MOST OF TODAY
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST 13Z HRRR
INDICATES PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENING BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS COULD PUSH WINDS BRIEFLY TO 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SO THE GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN EXTENDED.

WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE ALSO EASED...AND A
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER N PUGET SOUND HAS REDUCED THE FETCH FOR S
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF PUGET SOUND. THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
PASSING SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF WIND TO 25
KT.

WINDS OVER THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT A
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR 10 FT
SEAS.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE SITS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THE STRAIT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR BRIEF SCA WINDS IN THE EVENINGS.
A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
     COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
       INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
       ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 311604
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
903 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL WAVER THROUGH SNOHOMISH AND KING
COUNTIES TODAY. SHOWERS FROM THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY AT STEVENS PASS.
WASHINGTON DOT OBS AND CAMERAS SHOW SNOW STARTING AT STEVENS PASS
NOW...AND MODELS SHOW THE CONVERGENCE ZONE PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WAS ISSUED TO
COVER THIS SCENARIO. THE SNOW LEVEL IS AROUND 4000 FT BUT WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 3000 FT TONIGHT. HOWEVER LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AT
SNOQUALMIE PASS WITH 1-3 INCHES.

THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE OFFSHORE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL TRACK INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WITH THE COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT T-STORMS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLIPS THROUGH WESTERN WA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...SIMILAR TO TODAY.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS DRIER ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL ALSO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO
NORMAL. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL
AND SHOWERY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A SOMEWHAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THE
AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE AND GENERALLY MOIST WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. AN AREA OF MORE DEVELOPED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE AT
15Z AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST AROUND 19Z AND THE INTERIOR AROUND
23Z. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THIS AREA
OF MORE DEVELOPED SHOWERS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE ONSHORE
FLOW HAS PRODUCED A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER NORTH PUGET SOUND WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING E OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES. CIGS AROUND
CENTRAL AND NORTH PUGET SOUND WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS HANGING
OUT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR OR WORSE. CIGS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE
BKN030-050 AND HIGHER. CIGS MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO MVFR AROUND SHOWERS.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 19Z...LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
19Z. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN TO THE N WITH MVFR CIGS OVER N
SEATTLE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY 19Z-02Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SW 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
KAM

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD
FRONT...BUT HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. W WINDS IN THE
STRAIT HAVE EASED TO SCA LEVELS AND THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS DROPPED TO 1.2 MB. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING HIGHER WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WHILE WINDS IN THE STRAIT SHOULD BE SUB-GALE FOR MOST OF TODAY
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST 13Z HRRR
INDICATES PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENING BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS COULD PUSH WINDS BRIEFLY TO 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SO THE GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN EXTENDED.

WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE ALSO EASED...AND A
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER N PUGET SOUND HAS REDUCED THE FETCH FOR S
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF PUGET SOUND. THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
PASSING SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF WIND TO 25
KT.

WINDS OVER THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT A
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR 10 FT
SEAS.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE SITS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THE STRAIT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR BRIEF SCA WINDS IN THE EVENINGS.
A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
     COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
       INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
       ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 311602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY... BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWED MORE VIGOROUS LOOKING SHOWERS JUST REACHING THE
COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO
SHOW THAT THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY SHOULD
PROVIDE DEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. A MODEST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AT H8 WILL PROVIDE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT. WHILE
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...SHOWERS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE
MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY
OF SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE
DECIDED THE ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL.
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND
MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT THE SAME TIME. EITHER
WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO THESE
CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE TO
LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TODAY ALTHOUGH
FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9 FT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY... BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWED MORE VIGOROUS LOOKING SHOWERS JUST REACHING THE
COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO
SHOW THAT THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY SHOULD
PROVIDE DEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. A MODEST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AT H8 WILL PROVIDE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT. WHILE
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...SHOWERS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE
MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY
OF SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE
DECIDED THE ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL.
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND
MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT THE SAME TIME. EITHER
WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO THESE
CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE TO
LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TODAY ALTHOUGH
FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9 FT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY... BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWED MORE VIGOROUS LOOKING SHOWERS JUST REACHING THE
COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO
SHOW THAT THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY SHOULD
PROVIDE DEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. A MODEST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AT H8 WILL PROVIDE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT. WHILE
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...SHOWERS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE
MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY
OF SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE
DECIDED THE ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL.
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND
MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT THE SAME TIME. EITHER
WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO THESE
CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE TO
LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TODAY ALTHOUGH
FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9 FT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY... BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWED MORE VIGOROUS LOOKING SHOWERS JUST REACHING THE
COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO
SHOW THAT THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY SHOULD
PROVIDE DEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. A MODEST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AT H8 WILL PROVIDE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT. WHILE
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...SHOWERS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE
MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY
OF SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE
DECIDED THE ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL.
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND
MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT THE SAME TIME. EITHER
WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO THESE
CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE TO
LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TODAY ALTHOUGH
FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9 FT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 311133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: A cold front will plow through the Inland
Northwest today. Moisture with it isn`t very impressive, so I
don`t expect to see heavy precipitation from this event. The most
impressive part is the cold air behind the front. Temperatures
aloft will drop about 20-25F over the next 24 hours. This will
destabilize the atmosphere considerably today into Wednesday,
leading to convective showers and some thunderstorms both days.
These will be the usual early spring variety. Not strong or
severe, confined to afternoon and early evening, with some
lightning and small hail or graupel. These will mainly occur east
of a line from Republic to Walla Walla.

Both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, I expect lines of
convection to develop over the Basin and move into extreme eastern
WA and the Panhandle. Typically with these situations, these lines
of showers develop off the Cascades in central WA, but don`t
produce much precipitation until they get east of Moses Lake.

* Wind Today

Gusty winds will develop this morning and reach a peak late this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft aren`t real strong so I don`t
anticipate the need for a wind advisory. Winds will be 20-30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph.

* Stevens Pass Snow Today and Tonight

With this cold air comes rapidly falling snow levels. This coupled
with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSZC) will lead to the
potential for moderate snowfall at Stevens Pass this afternoon and
tonight. Initially the snow may have a hard time accumulating on
roads, but this won`t be the case after sunset this evening. Could
see several inches of snow tonight. The NAM suggests that the
heaviest snow will fall just south of Stevens Pass, but it won`t
take much of a change in wind direction to alter this. In fact,
the UW WRF shows the PSCZ band lifting north into Stevens Pass
after midnight tonight. I also expect the PSCZ to possibly reach
all the way into Wenatchee tonight. If this happens it would
probably still be rain at Wenatchee, but Leavenworth could see
some light snow.  RJ

Wednesday night through Thursday night: The upper level trough of
lower pressure will begin to shift eastward. The cold pool aloft
will hang over the eastern half of the region through Thursday.
This is expected to result in more showers for extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle in the afternoon. A cold, but fairly typical,
spring time temperature profile will result in more graupel or
snow pellets where showers form.

Friday through Tuesday: The weather pattern will remain unsettled
as another cold upper level trough of lower pressure drops down
along the west coast out of the Gulf of Alaska. There is good
model agreement up through Friday night when the initial surge of
moisture enters over the region. Moisture content does not look
very impressive, but there will be an increasing threat for
showers through Friday with the best chances expected across the
northern mountains. Snow levels will be relatively low compared to
what we have been seeing so far through this spring season. There
is a possibility for some valley snow showers primarily across the
northern mountain valleys.

The upper level trough then begins to shift more over the region
for the weekend. This will keep the weather unsettled and
seasonably cold. The cold temperatures will result in the
possibility for some valley snowfall. Temperatures will overall
be much more closer to climatological normals with highs in the
upper 40s and 50s and lows dropping down into the upper 20s to mid
30s. Our warmer areas such as the Wenatchee Area, Moses Lake Area
and L-C Valley have not seen temperatures at freezing since early
to mid March. This may have resulted in a jump start to the
growing season and people should be mindful of freezing
temperatures and frost damage to any sensitive vegetation. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold front will move through the Inland NW early this
morning. Strong gusty winds will develop behind the front ushering
in cold unstable air. Showers will develop, mainly in the
Panhandle, but there will be some shower activity even in the
Basin this afternoon and evening. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms
are also possible, mainly over the northern/eastern mountains. RJ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  40  50  40
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  50  40  20
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  40  30  20
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  30  30  20
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  40  50  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  60  60  50
Moses Lake     59  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Wenatchee      59  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20  10  10   0
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 311133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: A cold front will plow through the Inland
Northwest today. Moisture with it isn`t very impressive, so I
don`t expect to see heavy precipitation from this event. The most
impressive part is the cold air behind the front. Temperatures
aloft will drop about 20-25F over the next 24 hours. This will
destabilize the atmosphere considerably today into Wednesday,
leading to convective showers and some thunderstorms both days.
These will be the usual early spring variety. Not strong or
severe, confined to afternoon and early evening, with some
lightning and small hail or graupel. These will mainly occur east
of a line from Republic to Walla Walla.

Both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, I expect lines of
convection to develop over the Basin and move into extreme eastern
WA and the Panhandle. Typically with these situations, these lines
of showers develop off the Cascades in central WA, but don`t
produce much precipitation until they get east of Moses Lake.

* Wind Today

Gusty winds will develop this morning and reach a peak late this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft aren`t real strong so I don`t
anticipate the need for a wind advisory. Winds will be 20-30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph.

* Stevens Pass Snow Today and Tonight

With this cold air comes rapidly falling snow levels. This coupled
with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSZC) will lead to the
potential for moderate snowfall at Stevens Pass this afternoon and
tonight. Initially the snow may have a hard time accumulating on
roads, but this won`t be the case after sunset this evening. Could
see several inches of snow tonight. The NAM suggests that the
heaviest snow will fall just south of Stevens Pass, but it won`t
take much of a change in wind direction to alter this. In fact,
the UW WRF shows the PSCZ band lifting north into Stevens Pass
after midnight tonight. I also expect the PSCZ to possibly reach
all the way into Wenatchee tonight. If this happens it would
probably still be rain at Wenatchee, but Leavenworth could see
some light snow.  RJ

Wednesday night through Thursday night: The upper level trough of
lower pressure will begin to shift eastward. The cold pool aloft
will hang over the eastern half of the region through Thursday.
This is expected to result in more showers for extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle in the afternoon. A cold, but fairly typical,
spring time temperature profile will result in more graupel or
snow pellets where showers form.

Friday through Tuesday: The weather pattern will remain unsettled
as another cold upper level trough of lower pressure drops down
along the west coast out of the Gulf of Alaska. There is good
model agreement up through Friday night when the initial surge of
moisture enters over the region. Moisture content does not look
very impressive, but there will be an increasing threat for
showers through Friday with the best chances expected across the
northern mountains. Snow levels will be relatively low compared to
what we have been seeing so far through this spring season. There
is a possibility for some valley snow showers primarily across the
northern mountain valleys.

The upper level trough then begins to shift more over the region
for the weekend. This will keep the weather unsettled and
seasonably cold. The cold temperatures will result in the
possibility for some valley snowfall. Temperatures will overall
be much more closer to climatological normals with highs in the
upper 40s and 50s and lows dropping down into the upper 20s to mid
30s. Our warmer areas such as the Wenatchee Area, Moses Lake Area
and L-C Valley have not seen temperatures at freezing since early
to mid March. This may have resulted in a jump start to the
growing season and people should be mindful of freezing
temperatures and frost damage to any sensitive vegetation. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold front will move through the Inland NW early this
morning. Strong gusty winds will develop behind the front ushering
in cold unstable air. Showers will develop, mainly in the
Panhandle, but there will be some shower activity even in the
Basin this afternoon and evening. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms
are also possible, mainly over the northern/eastern mountains. RJ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  40  50  40
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  50  40  20
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  40  30  20
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  30  30  20
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  40  50  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  60  60  50
Moses Lake     59  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Wenatchee      59  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20  10  10   0
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: A cold front will plow through the Inland
Northwest today. Moisture with it isn`t very impressive, so I
don`t expect to see heavy precipitation from this event. The most
impressive part is the cold air behind the front. Temperatures
aloft will drop about 20-25F over the next 24 hours. This will
destabilize the atmosphere considerably today into Wednesday,
leading to convective showers and some thunderstorms both days.
These will be the usual early spring variety. Not strong or
severe, confined to afternoon and early evening, with some
lightning and small hail or graupel. These will mainly occur east
of a line from Republic to Walla Walla.

Both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, I expect lines of
convection to develop over the Basin and move into extreme eastern
WA and the Panhandle. Typically with these situations, these lines
of showers develop off the Cascades in central WA, but don`t
produce much precipitation until they get east of Moses Lake.

* Wind Today

Gusty winds will develop this morning and reach a peak late this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft aren`t real strong so I don`t
anticipate the need for a wind advisory. Winds will be 20-30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph.

* Stevens Pass Snow Today and Tonight

With this cold air comes rapidly falling snow levels. This coupled
with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSZC) will lead to the
potential for moderate snowfall at Stevens Pass this afternoon and
tonight. Initially the snow may have a hard time accumulating on
roads, but this won`t be the case after sunset this evening. Could
see several inches of snow tonight. The NAM suggests that the
heaviest snow will fall just south of Stevens Pass, but it won`t
take much of a change in wind direction to alter this. In fact,
the UW WRF shows the PSCZ band lifting north into Stevens Pass
after midnight tonight. I also expect the PSCZ to possibly reach
all the way into Wenatchee tonight. If this happens it would
probably still be rain at Wenatchee, but Leavenworth could see
some light snow.  RJ

Wednesday night through Thursday night: The upper level trough of
lower pressure will begin to shift eastward. The cold pool aloft
will hang over the eastern half of the region through Thursday.
This is expected to result in more showers for extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle in the afternoon. A cold, but fairly typical,
spring time temperature profile will result in more graupel or
snow pellets where showers form.

Friday through Tuesday: The weather pattern will remain unsettled
as another cold upper level trough of lower pressure drops down
along the west coast out of the Gulf of Alaska. There is good
model agreement up through Friday night when the initial surge of
moisture enters over the region. Moisture content does not look
very impressive, but there will be an increasing threat for
showers through Friday with the best chances expected across the
northern mountains. Snow levels will be relatively low compared to
what we have been seeing so far through this spring season. There
is a possibility for some valley snow showers primarily across the
northern mountain valleys.

The upper level trough then begins to shift more over the region
for the weekend. This will keep the weather unsettled and
seasonably cold. The cold temperatures will result in the
possibility for some valley snowfall. Temperatures will overall
be much more closer to climatological normals with highs in the
upper 40s and 50s and lows dropping down into the upper 20s to mid
30s. Our warmer areas such as the Wenatchee Area, Moses Lake Area
and L-C Valley have not seen temperatures at freezing since early
to mid March. This may have resulted in a jump start to the
growing season and people should be mindful of freezing
temperatures and frost damage to any sensitive vegetation. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold front will move through the Inland NW early this
morning. Strong gusty winds will develop behind the front ushering
in cold unstable air. Showers will develop, mainly in the
Panhandle, but there will be some shower activity even in the
Basin this afternoon and evening. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms
are also possible, mainly over the northern/eastern mountains. RJ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  40  50  40
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  50  40  20
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  40  30  20
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  30  30  20
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  40  50  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  60  60  50
Moses Lake     59  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Wenatchee      59  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20  10  10   0
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 311133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: A cold front will plow through the Inland
Northwest today. Moisture with it isn`t very impressive, so I
don`t expect to see heavy precipitation from this event. The most
impressive part is the cold air behind the front. Temperatures
aloft will drop about 20-25F over the next 24 hours. This will
destabilize the atmosphere considerably today into Wednesday,
leading to convective showers and some thunderstorms both days.
These will be the usual early spring variety. Not strong or
severe, confined to afternoon and early evening, with some
lightning and small hail or graupel. These will mainly occur east
of a line from Republic to Walla Walla.

Both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, I expect lines of
convection to develop over the Basin and move into extreme eastern
WA and the Panhandle. Typically with these situations, these lines
of showers develop off the Cascades in central WA, but don`t
produce much precipitation until they get east of Moses Lake.

* Wind Today

Gusty winds will develop this morning and reach a peak late this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft aren`t real strong so I don`t
anticipate the need for a wind advisory. Winds will be 20-30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph.

* Stevens Pass Snow Today and Tonight

With this cold air comes rapidly falling snow levels. This coupled
with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSZC) will lead to the
potential for moderate snowfall at Stevens Pass this afternoon and
tonight. Initially the snow may have a hard time accumulating on
roads, but this won`t be the case after sunset this evening. Could
see several inches of snow tonight. The NAM suggests that the
heaviest snow will fall just south of Stevens Pass, but it won`t
take much of a change in wind direction to alter this. In fact,
the UW WRF shows the PSCZ band lifting north into Stevens Pass
after midnight tonight. I also expect the PSCZ to possibly reach
all the way into Wenatchee tonight. If this happens it would
probably still be rain at Wenatchee, but Leavenworth could see
some light snow.  RJ

Wednesday night through Thursday night: The upper level trough of
lower pressure will begin to shift eastward. The cold pool aloft
will hang over the eastern half of the region through Thursday.
This is expected to result in more showers for extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle in the afternoon. A cold, but fairly typical,
spring time temperature profile will result in more graupel or
snow pellets where showers form.

Friday through Tuesday: The weather pattern will remain unsettled
as another cold upper level trough of lower pressure drops down
along the west coast out of the Gulf of Alaska. There is good
model agreement up through Friday night when the initial surge of
moisture enters over the region. Moisture content does not look
very impressive, but there will be an increasing threat for
showers through Friday with the best chances expected across the
northern mountains. Snow levels will be relatively low compared to
what we have been seeing so far through this spring season. There
is a possibility for some valley snow showers primarily across the
northern mountain valleys.

The upper level trough then begins to shift more over the region
for the weekend. This will keep the weather unsettled and
seasonably cold. The cold temperatures will result in the
possibility for some valley snowfall. Temperatures will overall
be much more closer to climatological normals with highs in the
upper 40s and 50s and lows dropping down into the upper 20s to mid
30s. Our warmer areas such as the Wenatchee Area, Moses Lake Area
and L-C Valley have not seen temperatures at freezing since early
to mid March. This may have resulted in a jump start to the
growing season and people should be mindful of freezing
temperatures and frost damage to any sensitive vegetation. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold front will move through the Inland NW early this
morning. Strong gusty winds will develop behind the front ushering
in cold unstable air. Showers will develop, mainly in the
Panhandle, but there will be some shower activity even in the
Basin this afternoon and evening. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms
are also possible, mainly over the northern/eastern mountains. RJ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  40  50  40
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  50  40  20
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  40  30  20
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  30  30  20
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  40  50  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  60  60  50
Moses Lake     59  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Wenatchee      59  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20  10  10   0
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 310958
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WHICH
MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
LIKELY NORTH OF SEATTLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET
TODAY AND THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...LOWER TO MID
50S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICIES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AND MODELS SHOWING SOME CAPE.

THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART LATER
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE STEVENS PASS COULD END UP GETTING SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP IN JUST THE RIGHT LOCATION. THE FORECAST
FOR NOW IS UP TO EIGHT INCHES FOR STEVENS PASS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHICH FALLS A BIT SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SHOWERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL VEER TO WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

THERE IS A MIX OF HIGH-END MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING
AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES...FOLLOWED BY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL LOCALLY GUST TO 25 KT TODAY.

KSEA...THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND 2 AM...AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE STARTING TO RISE AT 3 AM. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND
12-18 KT GUSTING 25 KT...BECOMING SOUTH 6-12 KT AGAIN THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BEGAN OVERNIGHT...AND IT WILL PREVAIL
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. RACE ROCKS HIT WEST 40 KT GUSTING 46 KT AT MIDNIGHT...
AND WESTERLY GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA INTO THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE REMAINING INLAND WATERS.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ONSHORE FLOW
ON SATURDAY.  MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
       INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 310958
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WHICH
MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
LIKELY NORTH OF SEATTLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET
TODAY AND THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...LOWER TO MID
50S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICIES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AND MODELS SHOWING SOME CAPE.

THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART LATER
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE STEVENS PASS COULD END UP GETTING SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP IN JUST THE RIGHT LOCATION. THE FORECAST
FOR NOW IS UP TO EIGHT INCHES FOR STEVENS PASS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHICH FALLS A BIT SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SHOWERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL VEER TO WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

THERE IS A MIX OF HIGH-END MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING
AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES...FOLLOWED BY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL LOCALLY GUST TO 25 KT TODAY.

KSEA...THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND 2 AM...AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE STARTING TO RISE AT 3 AM. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND
12-18 KT GUSTING 25 KT...BECOMING SOUTH 6-12 KT AGAIN THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BEGAN OVERNIGHT...AND IT WILL PREVAIL
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. RACE ROCKS HIT WEST 40 KT GUSTING 46 KT AT MIDNIGHT...
AND WESTERLY GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA INTO THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE REMAINING INLAND WATERS.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ONSHORE FLOW
ON SATURDAY.  MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
       INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 310958
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WHICH
MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
LIKELY NORTH OF SEATTLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET
TODAY AND THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...LOWER TO MID
50S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICIES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AND MODELS SHOWING SOME CAPE.

THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART LATER
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE STEVENS PASS COULD END UP GETTING SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP IN JUST THE RIGHT LOCATION. THE FORECAST
FOR NOW IS UP TO EIGHT INCHES FOR STEVENS PASS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHICH FALLS A BIT SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SHOWERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL VEER TO WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

THERE IS A MIX OF HIGH-END MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING
AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES...FOLLOWED BY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL LOCALLY GUST TO 25 KT TODAY.

KSEA...THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND 2 AM...AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE STARTING TO RISE AT 3 AM. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND
12-18 KT GUSTING 25 KT...BECOMING SOUTH 6-12 KT AGAIN THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BEGAN OVERNIGHT...AND IT WILL PREVAIL
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. RACE ROCKS HIT WEST 40 KT GUSTING 46 KT AT MIDNIGHT...
AND WESTERLY GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA INTO THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE REMAINING INLAND WATERS.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ONSHORE FLOW
ON SATURDAY.  MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
       INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 310958
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WHICH
MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
LIKELY NORTH OF SEATTLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET
TODAY AND THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...LOWER TO MID
50S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICIES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AND MODELS SHOWING SOME CAPE.

THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART LATER
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE STEVENS PASS COULD END UP GETTING SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP IN JUST THE RIGHT LOCATION. THE FORECAST
FOR NOW IS UP TO EIGHT INCHES FOR STEVENS PASS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHICH FALLS A BIT SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SHOWERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL VEER TO WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

THERE IS A MIX OF HIGH-END MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING
AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES...FOLLOWED BY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL LOCALLY GUST TO 25 KT TODAY.

KSEA...THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND 2 AM...AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE STARTING TO RISE AT 3 AM. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND
12-18 KT GUSTING 25 KT...BECOMING SOUTH 6-12 KT AGAIN THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BEGAN OVERNIGHT...AND IT WILL PREVAIL
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. RACE ROCKS HIT WEST 40 KT GUSTING 46 KT AT MIDNIGHT...
AND WESTERLY GALES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA INTO THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE REMAINING INLAND WATERS.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ONSHORE FLOW
ON SATURDAY.  MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
       INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KOTX 310924
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: A cold front will plow through the Inland
Northwest today. Moisture with it isn`t very impressive, so I
don`t expect to see heavy precipitation from this event. The most
impressive part is the cold air behind the front. Temperatures
aloft will drop about 20-25F over the next 24 hours. This will
destabilize the atmosphere considerably today into Wednesday,
leading to convective showers and some thunderstorms both days.
These will be the usual early spring variety. Not strong or
severe, confined to afternoon and early evening, with some
lightning and small hail or graupel. These will mainly occur east
of a line from Republic to Walla Walla.

Both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, I expect lines of
convection to develop over the Basin and move into extreme eastern
WA and the Panhandle. Typically with these situations, these lines
of showers develop off the Cascades in central WA, but don`t
produce much precipitation until they get east of Moses Lake.

* Wind Today

Gusty winds will develop this morning and reach a peak late this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft aren`t real strong so I don`t
anticipate the need for a wind advisory. Winds will be 20-30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph.

* Stevens Pass Snow Today and Tonight

With this cold air comes rapidly falling snow levels. This coupled
with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSZC) will lead to the
potential for moderate snowfall at Stevens Pass this afternoon and
tonight. Initially the snow may have a hard time accumulating on
roads, but this won`t be the case after sunset this evening. Could
see several inches of snow tonight. The NAM suggests that the
heaviest snow will fall just south of Stevens Pass, but it won`t
take much of a change in wind direction to alter this. In fact,
the UW WRF shows the PSCZ band lifting north into Stevens Pass
after midnight tonight. I also expect the PSCZ to possibly reach
all the way into Wenatchee tonight. If this happens it would
probably still be rain at Wenatchee, but Leavenworth could see
some light snow.  RJ

Wednesday night through Thursday night: The upper level trough of
lower pressure will begin to shift eastward. The cold pool aloft
will hang over the eastern half of the region through Thursday.
This is expected to result in more showers for extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle in the afternoon. A cold, but fairly typical,
spring time temperature profile will result in more graupel or
snow pellets where showers form.

Friday through Tuesday: The weather pattern will remain unsettled
as another cold upper level trough of lower pressure drops down
along the west coast out of the Gulf of Alaska. There is good
model agreement up through Friday night when the initial surge of
moisture enters over the region. Moisture content does not look
very impressive, but there will be an increasing threat for
showers through Friday with the best chances expected across the
northern mountains. Snow levels will be relatively low compared to
what we have been seeing so far through this spring season. There
is a possibility for some valley snow showers primarily across the
northern mountain valleys.

The upper level trough then begins to shift more over the region
for the weekend. This will keep the weather unsettled and
seasonably cold. The cold temperatures will result in the
possibility for some valley snowfall. Temperatures will overall
be much more closer to climatological normals with highs in the
upper 40s and 50s and lows dropping down into the upper 20s to mid
30s. Our warmer areas such as the Wenatchee Area, Moses Lake Area
and L-C Valley have not seen temperatures at freezing since early
to mid March. This may have resulted in a jump start to the
growing season and people should be mindful of freezing
temperatures and frost damage to any sensitive vegetation. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, will increase the threat of scattered high- based showers.
Ceilings should remain VFR, but drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A
couple nocturnal lightning strikes are not out of the question.
Expect to see a dramatic increase in west winds beginning around
15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph possible by late morning.
Expect the atmosphere to destabilize Tuesday afternoon as colder
air aloft moves in behind the cold front. The bulk of the showers
given westerly flow are expected near the Cascade crest and Idaho
Panhandle. A few thunderstorms in the afternoon are also
possible...although confidence in this materializing is low at
this time.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  40  50  40
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  50  40  20
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  40  30  20
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  30  30  20
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  40  50  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  60  60  50
Moses Lake     59  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Wenatchee      59  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20  10  10   0
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310924
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area today. The front
will bring gusty winds today...as well as colder temperatures and
showers through the remainder of the work week. The weekend could
be even cooler with continued showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: A cold front will plow through the Inland
Northwest today. Moisture with it isn`t very impressive, so I
don`t expect to see heavy precipitation from this event. The most
impressive part is the cold air behind the front. Temperatures
aloft will drop about 20-25F over the next 24 hours. This will
destabilize the atmosphere considerably today into Wednesday,
leading to convective showers and some thunderstorms both days.
These will be the usual early spring variety. Not strong or
severe, confined to afternoon and early evening, with some
lightning and small hail or graupel. These will mainly occur east
of a line from Republic to Walla Walla.

Both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, I expect lines of
convection to develop over the Basin and move into extreme eastern
WA and the Panhandle. Typically with these situations, these lines
of showers develop off the Cascades in central WA, but don`t
produce much precipitation until they get east of Moses Lake.

* Wind Today

Gusty winds will develop this morning and reach a peak late this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft aren`t real strong so I don`t
anticipate the need for a wind advisory. Winds will be 20-30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph.

* Stevens Pass Snow Today and Tonight

With this cold air comes rapidly falling snow levels. This coupled
with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSZC) will lead to the
potential for moderate snowfall at Stevens Pass this afternoon and
tonight. Initially the snow may have a hard time accumulating on
roads, but this won`t be the case after sunset this evening. Could
see several inches of snow tonight. The NAM suggests that the
heaviest snow will fall just south of Stevens Pass, but it won`t
take much of a change in wind direction to alter this. In fact,
the UW WRF shows the PSCZ band lifting north into Stevens Pass
after midnight tonight. I also expect the PSCZ to possibly reach
all the way into Wenatchee tonight. If this happens it would
probably still be rain at Wenatchee, but Leavenworth could see
some light snow.  RJ

Wednesday night through Thursday night: The upper level trough of
lower pressure will begin to shift eastward. The cold pool aloft
will hang over the eastern half of the region through Thursday.
This is expected to result in more showers for extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle in the afternoon. A cold, but fairly typical,
spring time temperature profile will result in more graupel or
snow pellets where showers form.

Friday through Tuesday: The weather pattern will remain unsettled
as another cold upper level trough of lower pressure drops down
along the west coast out of the Gulf of Alaska. There is good
model agreement up through Friday night when the initial surge of
moisture enters over the region. Moisture content does not look
very impressive, but there will be an increasing threat for
showers through Friday with the best chances expected across the
northern mountains. Snow levels will be relatively low compared to
what we have been seeing so far through this spring season. There
is a possibility for some valley snow showers primarily across the
northern mountain valleys.

The upper level trough then begins to shift more over the region
for the weekend. This will keep the weather unsettled and
seasonably cold. The cold temperatures will result in the
possibility for some valley snowfall. Temperatures will overall
be much more closer to climatological normals with highs in the
upper 40s and 50s and lows dropping down into the upper 20s to mid
30s. Our warmer areas such as the Wenatchee Area, Moses Lake Area
and L-C Valley have not seen temperatures at freezing since early
to mid March. This may have resulted in a jump start to the
growing season and people should be mindful of freezing
temperatures and frost damage to any sensitive vegetation. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, will increase the threat of scattered high- based showers.
Ceilings should remain VFR, but drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A
couple nocturnal lightning strikes are not out of the question.
Expect to see a dramatic increase in west winds beginning around
15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph possible by late morning.
Expect the atmosphere to destabilize Tuesday afternoon as colder
air aloft moves in behind the cold front. The bulk of the showers
given westerly flow are expected near the Cascade crest and Idaho
Panhandle. A few thunderstorms in the afternoon are also
possible...although confidence in this materializing is low at
this time.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  32  51  29  51  31 /  30  10  40  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  55  30  51  28  49  30 /  40  10  60  40  50  40
Pullman        52  33  49  30  48  32 /  40  20  40  50  40  20
Lewiston       58  36  54  33  53  34 /  30  20  40  40  30  20
Colville       60  32  55  29  54  31 /  50  30  40  30  30  20
Sandpoint      54  29  51  27  49  28 /  50  30  60  40  50  30
Kellogg        52  32  45  29  44  31 /  80  30  60  60  60  50
Moses Lake     59  34  59  29  59  31 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Wenatchee      59  39  58  34  58  37 /  10  20  20  10  10   0
Omak           60  32  57  29  59  32 /  10  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 310543
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1043 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will arrive early Tuesday. The front will
bring gusty west winds on Tuesday...as well as mainly mountain
showers. Wednesday through the weekend will be seasonably cool
and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: After evaluating the 18z GFS/NAM model runs and the past
3 HRRR runs...a few edits were made to the overnight forecast. A
slight chance of thunderstorms was added from the Blue Mountains
to the Central Panhandle Mountains including the Palouse and
Lewiston area. Previous discussions have mentioned this
possibility but confidence has increased a bit more to mention in
the forecast. A slight chance of rain showers was also expanded
westward a bit to include the western Palouse, and Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area. There is general model agreement that a band of
elevated instability in the 700-500mb layer will develop over
Southeast Washington late this evening before tracking northeast
into the Central Panhandle Mountains overnight. Most unstable CAPE
values increase to 100-300 J/KG with no convective inhibition
above 700mb. This combined with a Theta-e ridge axis over the
area, and increased forcing may trigger a few thunderstorms. The
HRRR shows this activity could develop and track a bit further
west to include the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area.
Although thunder is less likely in these areas with the best mid
level instability south and east of these areas. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, will increase the threat of scattered high- based showers.
Ceilings should remain VFR, but drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A
couple nocturnal lightning strikes are not out of the question.
Expect to see a dramatic increase in west winds beginning around
15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph possible by late morning.
Expect the atmosphere to destabilize Tuesday afternoon as colder
air aloft moves in behind the cold front. The bulk of the showers
given westerly flow are expected near the Cascade crest and Idaho
Panhandle. A few thunderstorms in the afternoon are also
possible...although confidence in this materializing is low at
this time.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  20  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  20  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  20  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 310543
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1043 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will arrive early Tuesday. The front will
bring gusty west winds on Tuesday...as well as mainly mountain
showers. Wednesday through the weekend will be seasonably cool
and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: After evaluating the 18z GFS/NAM model runs and the past
3 HRRR runs...a few edits were made to the overnight forecast. A
slight chance of thunderstorms was added from the Blue Mountains
to the Central Panhandle Mountains including the Palouse and
Lewiston area. Previous discussions have mentioned this
possibility but confidence has increased a bit more to mention in
the forecast. A slight chance of rain showers was also expanded
westward a bit to include the western Palouse, and Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area. There is general model agreement that a band of
elevated instability in the 700-500mb layer will develop over
Southeast Washington late this evening before tracking northeast
into the Central Panhandle Mountains overnight. Most unstable CAPE
values increase to 100-300 J/KG with no convective inhibition
above 700mb. This combined with a Theta-e ridge axis over the
area, and increased forcing may trigger a few thunderstorms. The
HRRR shows this activity could develop and track a bit further
west to include the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area.
Although thunder is less likely in these areas with the best mid
level instability south and east of these areas. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, will increase the threat of scattered high- based showers.
Ceilings should remain VFR, but drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A
couple nocturnal lightning strikes are not out of the question.
Expect to see a dramatic increase in west winds beginning around
15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph possible by late morning.
Expect the atmosphere to destabilize Tuesday afternoon as colder
air aloft moves in behind the cold front. The bulk of the showers
given westerly flow are expected near the Cascade crest and Idaho
Panhandle. A few thunderstorms in the afternoon are also
possible...although confidence in this materializing is low at
this time.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  20  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  20  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  20  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310543
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1043 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will arrive early Tuesday. The front will
bring gusty west winds on Tuesday...as well as mainly mountain
showers. Wednesday through the weekend will be seasonably cool
and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: After evaluating the 18z GFS/NAM model runs and the past
3 HRRR runs...a few edits were made to the overnight forecast. A
slight chance of thunderstorms was added from the Blue Mountains
to the Central Panhandle Mountains including the Palouse and
Lewiston area. Previous discussions have mentioned this
possibility but confidence has increased a bit more to mention in
the forecast. A slight chance of rain showers was also expanded
westward a bit to include the western Palouse, and Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area. There is general model agreement that a band of
elevated instability in the 700-500mb layer will develop over
Southeast Washington late this evening before tracking northeast
into the Central Panhandle Mountains overnight. Most unstable CAPE
values increase to 100-300 J/KG with no convective inhibition
above 700mb. This combined with a Theta-e ridge axis over the
area, and increased forcing may trigger a few thunderstorms. The
HRRR shows this activity could develop and track a bit further
west to include the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area.
Although thunder is less likely in these areas with the best mid
level instability south and east of these areas. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, will increase the threat of scattered high- based showers.
Ceilings should remain VFR, but drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A
couple nocturnal lightning strikes are not out of the question.
Expect to see a dramatic increase in west winds beginning around
15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph possible by late morning.
Expect the atmosphere to destabilize Tuesday afternoon as colder
air aloft moves in behind the cold front. The bulk of the showers
given westerly flow are expected near the Cascade crest and Idaho
Panhandle. A few thunderstorms in the afternoon are also
possible...although confidence in this materializing is low at
this time.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  20  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  20  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  20  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310543
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1043 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will arrive early Tuesday. The front will
bring gusty west winds on Tuesday...as well as mainly mountain
showers. Wednesday through the weekend will be seasonably cool
and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: After evaluating the 18z GFS/NAM model runs and the past
3 HRRR runs...a few edits were made to the overnight forecast. A
slight chance of thunderstorms was added from the Blue Mountains
to the Central Panhandle Mountains including the Palouse and
Lewiston area. Previous discussions have mentioned this
possibility but confidence has increased a bit more to mention in
the forecast. A slight chance of rain showers was also expanded
westward a bit to include the western Palouse, and Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area. There is general model agreement that a band of
elevated instability in the 700-500mb layer will develop over
Southeast Washington late this evening before tracking northeast
into the Central Panhandle Mountains overnight. Most unstable CAPE
values increase to 100-300 J/KG with no convective inhibition
above 700mb. This combined with a Theta-e ridge axis over the
area, and increased forcing may trigger a few thunderstorms. The
HRRR shows this activity could develop and track a bit further
west to include the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area.
Although thunder is less likely in these areas with the best mid
level instability south and east of these areas. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, will increase the threat of scattered high- based showers.
Ceilings should remain VFR, but drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A
couple nocturnal lightning strikes are not out of the question.
Expect to see a dramatic increase in west winds beginning around
15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph possible by late morning.
Expect the atmosphere to destabilize Tuesday afternoon as colder
air aloft moves in behind the cold front. The bulk of the showers
given westerly flow are expected near the Cascade crest and Idaho
Panhandle. A few thunderstorms in the afternoon are also
possible...although confidence in this materializing is low at
this time.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  20  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  20  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  20  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 310340
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN IS JUST REACHING THE COAST AND IT SHOULD SPREAD
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY ALONG WITH WHAT MAY BE A PERSISTENT AND
STRONG PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE CENTERED IN KING COUNTY. THE NEW
NAM RUN SHOWS IT LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 3000 FEET OR SO AND STAY THERE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE PASSES.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE PASSES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS ABOUT AN
INCH OF WATER IN THE QPF GRIDS AROUND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. IF ALL THAT
FALLS AS SNOW THEN A SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE
HIGHER PASSES INCLUDING STEVENS AND WHITE.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THINGS DRY OUT
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S WEDNESDAY THEN RISE A BIT ON
THURSDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS
WESTERN WA. POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SIGNS OF AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PUMPING MOISTURE INLAND FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BECOME UNSTABLE TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN070
BKN-OVC160...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND LOCAL IFR TONIGHT -- FIRST
ALONG THE COAST AND THEN INLAND -- AS THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE
MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY
TUESDAY AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE WINDS
LOCALLY GUSTING TO 25 KT WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT...RISING TO 12-18 KT GUSTING
25 KT BEGINNING AROUND 2 AM. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 11 PM WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...WITH
WESTERLY GALES EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 310340
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN IS JUST REACHING THE COAST AND IT SHOULD SPREAD
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY ALONG WITH WHAT MAY BE A PERSISTENT AND
STRONG PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE CENTERED IN KING COUNTY. THE NEW
NAM RUN SHOWS IT LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 3000 FEET OR SO AND STAY THERE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE PASSES.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE PASSES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS ABOUT AN
INCH OF WATER IN THE QPF GRIDS AROUND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. IF ALL THAT
FALLS AS SNOW THEN A SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE
HIGHER PASSES INCLUDING STEVENS AND WHITE.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THINGS DRY OUT
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S WEDNESDAY THEN RISE A BIT ON
THURSDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS
WESTERN WA. POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SIGNS OF AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PUMPING MOISTURE INLAND FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BECOME UNSTABLE TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN070
BKN-OVC160...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND LOCAL IFR TONIGHT -- FIRST
ALONG THE COAST AND THEN INLAND -- AS THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE
MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY
TUESDAY AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE WINDS
LOCALLY GUSTING TO 25 KT WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT...RISING TO 12-18 KT GUSTING
25 KT BEGINNING AROUND 2 AM. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 11 PM WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...WITH
WESTERLY GALES EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 310340
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN IS JUST REACHING THE COAST AND IT SHOULD SPREAD
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY ALONG WITH WHAT MAY BE A PERSISTENT AND
STRONG PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE CENTERED IN KING COUNTY. THE NEW
NAM RUN SHOWS IT LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 3000 FEET OR SO AND STAY THERE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE PASSES.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE PASSES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS ABOUT AN
INCH OF WATER IN THE QPF GRIDS AROUND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. IF ALL THAT
FALLS AS SNOW THEN A SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE
HIGHER PASSES INCLUDING STEVENS AND WHITE.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THINGS DRY OUT
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S WEDNESDAY THEN RISE A BIT ON
THURSDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS
WESTERN WA. POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SIGNS OF AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PUMPING MOISTURE INLAND FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BECOME UNSTABLE TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN070
BKN-OVC160...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND LOCAL IFR TONIGHT -- FIRST
ALONG THE COAST AND THEN INLAND -- AS THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE
MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY
TUESDAY AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE WINDS
LOCALLY GUSTING TO 25 KT WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT...RISING TO 12-18 KT GUSTING
25 KT BEGINNING AROUND 2 AM. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 11 PM WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...WITH
WESTERLY GALES EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 310340
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN IS JUST REACHING THE COAST AND IT SHOULD SPREAD
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY ALONG WITH WHAT MAY BE A PERSISTENT AND
STRONG PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE CENTERED IN KING COUNTY. THE NEW
NAM RUN SHOWS IT LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...TEN DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 3000 FEET OR SO AND STAY THERE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE PASSES.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE PASSES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS ABOUT AN
INCH OF WATER IN THE QPF GRIDS AROUND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. IF ALL THAT
FALLS AS SNOW THEN A SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE
HIGHER PASSES INCLUDING STEVENS AND WHITE.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THINGS DRY OUT
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S WEDNESDAY THEN RISE A BIT ON
THURSDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS
WESTERN WA. POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SIGNS OF AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PUMPING MOISTURE INLAND FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BECOME UNSTABLE TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN070
BKN-OVC160...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND LOCAL IFR TONIGHT -- FIRST
ALONG THE COAST AND THEN INLAND -- AS THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE
MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY
TUESDAY AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE WINDS
LOCALLY GUSTING TO 25 KT WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT...RISING TO 12-18 KT GUSTING
25 KT BEGINNING AROUND 2 AM. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 11 PM WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...WITH
WESTERLY GALES EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 310006
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
506 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest has enjoyed the last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: After evaluating the 18z GFS/NAM model runs and the past
3 HRRR runs...a few edits were made to the overnight forecast. A
slight chance of thunderstorms was added from the Blue Mountains
to the Central Panhandle Mountains including the Palouse and
Lewiston area. Previous discussions have mentioned this
possibility but confidence has increased a bit more to mention in
the forecast. A slight chance of rain showers was also expanded
westward a bit to include the western Palouse, and Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area. There is general model agreement that a band of
elevated instability in the 700-500mb layer will develop over
Southeast Washington late this evening before tracking northeast
into the Central Panhandle Mountains overnight. Most unstable CAPE
values increase to 100-300 J/KG with no convective inhibition
above 700mb. This combined with a Theta-e ridge axis over the
area, and increased forcing may trigger a few thunderstorms. The
HRRR shows this activity could develop and track a bit further
west to include the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area.
Although thunder is less likely in these areas with the best mid
level instability south and east of these areas. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat of
scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  20  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  20  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  20  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310006
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
506 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest has enjoyed the last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: After evaluating the 18z GFS/NAM model runs and the past
3 HRRR runs...a few edits were made to the overnight forecast. A
slight chance of thunderstorms was added from the Blue Mountains
to the Central Panhandle Mountains including the Palouse and
Lewiston area. Previous discussions have mentioned this
possibility but confidence has increased a bit more to mention in
the forecast. A slight chance of rain showers was also expanded
westward a bit to include the western Palouse, and Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area. There is general model agreement that a band of
elevated instability in the 700-500mb layer will develop over
Southeast Washington late this evening before tracking northeast
into the Central Panhandle Mountains overnight. Most unstable CAPE
values increase to 100-300 J/KG with no convective inhibition
above 700mb. This combined with a Theta-e ridge axis over the
area, and increased forcing may trigger a few thunderstorms. The
HRRR shows this activity could develop and track a bit further
west to include the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area.
Although thunder is less likely in these areas with the best mid
level instability south and east of these areas. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat of
scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  20  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  20  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  20  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 310006
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
506 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest has enjoyed the last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: After evaluating the 18z GFS/NAM model runs and the past
3 HRRR runs...a few edits were made to the overnight forecast. A
slight chance of thunderstorms was added from the Blue Mountains
to the Central Panhandle Mountains including the Palouse and
Lewiston area. Previous discussions have mentioned this
possibility but confidence has increased a bit more to mention in
the forecast. A slight chance of rain showers was also expanded
westward a bit to include the western Palouse, and Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area. There is general model agreement that a band of
elevated instability in the 700-500mb layer will develop over
Southeast Washington late this evening before tracking northeast
into the Central Panhandle Mountains overnight. Most unstable CAPE
values increase to 100-300 J/KG with no convective inhibition
above 700mb. This combined with a Theta-e ridge axis over the
area, and increased forcing may trigger a few thunderstorms. The
HRRR shows this activity could develop and track a bit further
west to include the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area.
Although thunder is less likely in these areas with the best mid
level instability south and east of these areas. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat of
scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  20  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  20  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  20  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310006
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
506 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest has enjoyed the last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: After evaluating the 18z GFS/NAM model runs and the past
3 HRRR runs...a few edits were made to the overnight forecast. A
slight chance of thunderstorms was added from the Blue Mountains
to the Central Panhandle Mountains including the Palouse and
Lewiston area. Previous discussions have mentioned this
possibility but confidence has increased a bit more to mention in
the forecast. A slight chance of rain showers was also expanded
westward a bit to include the western Palouse, and Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area. There is general model agreement that a band of
elevated instability in the 700-500mb layer will develop over
Southeast Washington late this evening before tracking northeast
into the Central Panhandle Mountains overnight. Most unstable CAPE
values increase to 100-300 J/KG with no convective inhibition
above 700mb. This combined with a Theta-e ridge axis over the
area, and increased forcing may trigger a few thunderstorms. The
HRRR shows this activity could develop and track a bit further
west to include the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area.
Although thunder is less likely in these areas with the best mid
level instability south and east of these areas. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat of
scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  20  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  20  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  20  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 302202
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
301 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WESTERN WA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE PRETTY
MILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS ARE
INCREASING AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SLIDE S/SE INTO WESTERN WA.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING WETTER WEATHER TO THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES IN. RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND WE WILL SEE WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE
BOARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND
3000 FT WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS IN KING COUNTY. MODELS ALSO
SHOW A NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S - A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AND DRY OUT AS WE
MOVE INTO THURSDAY. BY THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PAC NW. 33

.LONG TERM...THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. POPS WERE
NUDGED UPWARDS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNS OF AGREEMENT.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS
UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE PUMPING MOISTURE INLAND FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT ALONG 130W AT 21Z WILL REACH THE WA COAST
AROUND 05Z THEN CROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND 09Z. MOIST WESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SW.
THE AIR MASS WAS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AT 21Z WITH GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. CIGS
THROUGHOUT W WA ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT IN RAIN WITH
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY S SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL BE GUSTY IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER W WA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE...WITH SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z TONIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO BKN030-050 WITH RAIN AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
AREA ROUGHLY 07Z-09Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SW 6-12 KT THROUGH 06Z THEN RISE TO SW 15-25 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT ALONG 130W AT 21Z WILL REACH THE COAST LATE
THIS EVENING THE MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE STRAIT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. TONIGHTS FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE
MORNING HRRR MODEL RUNS WHICH IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS NOW
CONSISTENTLY INDICATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAIT. THE 12Z
CANADIAN LAM ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF GALES. SCA S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE INLAND WATERS AND OVER THE COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH W PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE STRAIT FOR SCA WINDS IN THE EVENINGS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA FRIDAY. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 302202
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
301 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WESTERN WA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ARE PRETTY
MILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS ARE
INCREASING AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SLIDE S/SE INTO WESTERN WA.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING WETTER WEATHER TO THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES IN. RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND WE WILL SEE WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE
BOARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND
3000 FT WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS IN KING COUNTY. MODELS ALSO
SHOW A NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S - A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AND DRY OUT AS WE
MOVE INTO THURSDAY. BY THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PAC NW. 33

.LONG TERM...THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. POPS WERE
NUDGED UPWARDS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNS OF AGREEMENT.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS
UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE PUMPING MOISTURE INLAND FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT ALONG 130W AT 21Z WILL REACH THE WA COAST
AROUND 05Z THEN CROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND 09Z. MOIST WESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SW.
THE AIR MASS WAS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AT 21Z WITH GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. CIGS
THROUGHOUT W WA ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT IN RAIN WITH
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY S SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL BE GUSTY IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER W WA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE...WITH SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z TONIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO BKN030-050 WITH RAIN AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
AREA ROUGHLY 07Z-09Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SW 6-12 KT THROUGH 06Z THEN RISE TO SW 15-25 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT ALONG 130W AT 21Z WILL REACH THE COAST LATE
THIS EVENING THE MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE STRAIT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. TONIGHTS FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE
MORNING HRRR MODEL RUNS WHICH IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS NOW
CONSISTENTLY INDICATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAIT. THE 12Z
CANADIAN LAM ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF GALES. SCA S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE INLAND WATERS AND OVER THE COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH W PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE STRAIT FOR SCA WINDS IN THE EVENINGS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA FRIDAY. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 302152
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest has enjoyed the last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: With the approach of the upper trough and cold front
today, we`ve been watching a surge of mid-level moisture and
instability moving NE through Oregon. Though there is no pcpn
falling upstream (Oregon) with this elevated moisture, we still
expect large-scale forcing for ascent to release this instability
and begin to produce rain showers late tonight spreading from NE
Oregon, through the Palouse and into the Cntrl Id Panhandle.
Spokane and Coeur D`alene are on the edge of this pcpn, so don`t
be surprised if you see a few rain showers for the morning
commute. Thunder is not expected, but given the degree of
convective instability in the 700-500mb layer it`s possible.bz

Tuesday through Wednesday: A cold front is expected to pass
through the region on Tuesday. As the front begins to press
through the Cascades Tuesday morning, prefrontal showers are
possible in the Southeastern Washington and Lower Idaho Panhandle
regions. By Tuesday afternoon, the front is over the Idaho
Panhandle and bring widespread rain showers to the region. The
Cape values and lapse rates indicate a possible thunderstorm
development in Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle from the
afternoon into the early Tuesday evening. These storms are
expected to bring some lightning strikes and be short lived. By
Tuesday night the treat of thunder is gone but winds begin to pick
up in the region. Winds are expected be breezy throughout time of
Tuesday night and Wednesday with sustained around 20-25 MPH and
gusts up to 40 MPH. Snow levels will drop behind the front and
spring like snow event is possible for the mountains. Some of the
higher terrain could see an inch or two of snow but accumulation
is expected to be minimal. For Wednesday, widespread rain showers
is expected with possible graupel and small hail during the
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with upper level cold
air and diurnal heating. By wednesday night, the atmosphere
stabilizes, the wide spread showers start to decrease, and the
winds decrease as the gradient in the region weakens. /JDC

Thursday through Monday: Expect more typical spring like weather
for the Inland Northwest for the latter half of the week and
through the weekend. The ridge of high pressure will start off
along the coast for Thursday, allowing a moist northwest flow with
an embedded impulse to clip northeast Washington and the Idaho
panhandle by Thursday afternoon. Anticipate showers to increase
during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface based instability
looks marginal but could see more graupel showers and a possible
lightning strike. This impulse exits to the east Thursday night,
while the upper ridge translates into the region. Light winds and
increased stability may lead to patchy valley fog late that night
and into Friday morning. The ridge flattens out during the day on
Friday with increasing clouds as the first of many shortwaves roll
across the region. The pattern becomes quite progressive and
unstable. This first front arrives late Friday with rain and
mountain snow, mainly near the Canadian border, then quickly
pushing south and east Friday evening with showers persisting in
extreme eastern Washington and north Idaho into the night. An
upper level low descends south from the Gulf of Alaska and keeps
the unsettled pattern through the weekend with a moist, unstable
southwest flow across the region. Convection will increase during
the afternoon and evening hours, as snow levels range from 3-4k ft
with a continued threat of graupel and a possible lightning
strike. By Sunday, the medium range models diverge slightly on the
track of the upper level low. The GFS and Canadian show the upper
low weakening and opening up, allowing the feature to swing
inland. The ECWMF keeps the closed circulation off the coast and
sinks it southward. Each will keep the sensible weather showery
especially in the mountains. Temperatures will hover near seasonal
normals. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon,
SE Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat
of scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  10  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  10  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  10  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 302152
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest has enjoyed the last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: With the approach of the upper trough and cold front
today, we`ve been watching a surge of mid-level moisture and
instability moving NE through Oregon. Though there is no pcpn
falling upstream (Oregon) with this elevated moisture, we still
expect large-scale forcing for ascent to release this instability
and begin to produce rain showers late tonight spreading from NE
Oregon, through the Palouse and into the Cntrl Id Panhandle.
Spokane and Coeur D`alene are on the edge of this pcpn, so don`t
be surprised if you see a few rain showers for the morning
commute. Thunder is not expected, but given the degree of
convective instability in the 700-500mb layer it`s possible.bz

Tuesday through Wednesday: A cold front is expected to pass
through the region on Tuesday. As the front begins to press
through the Cascades Tuesday morning, prefrontal showers are
possible in the Southeastern Washington and Lower Idaho Panhandle
regions. By Tuesday afternoon, the front is over the Idaho
Panhandle and bring widespread rain showers to the region. The
Cape values and lapse rates indicate a possible thunderstorm
development in Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle from the
afternoon into the early Tuesday evening. These storms are
expected to bring some lightning strikes and be short lived. By
Tuesday night the treat of thunder is gone but winds begin to pick
up in the region. Winds are expected be breezy throughout time of
Tuesday night and Wednesday with sustained around 20-25 MPH and
gusts up to 40 MPH. Snow levels will drop behind the front and
spring like snow event is possible for the mountains. Some of the
higher terrain could see an inch or two of snow but accumulation
is expected to be minimal. For Wednesday, widespread rain showers
is expected with possible graupel and small hail during the
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with upper level cold
air and diurnal heating. By wednesday night, the atmosphere
stabilizes, the wide spread showers start to decrease, and the
winds decrease as the gradient in the region weakens. /JDC

Thursday through Monday: Expect more typical spring like weather
for the Inland Northwest for the latter half of the week and
through the weekend. The ridge of high pressure will start off
along the coast for Thursday, allowing a moist northwest flow with
an embedded impulse to clip northeast Washington and the Idaho
panhandle by Thursday afternoon. Anticipate showers to increase
during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface based instability
looks marginal but could see more graupel showers and a possible
lightning strike. This impulse exits to the east Thursday night,
while the upper ridge translates into the region. Light winds and
increased stability may lead to patchy valley fog late that night
and into Friday morning. The ridge flattens out during the day on
Friday with increasing clouds as the first of many shortwaves roll
across the region. The pattern becomes quite progressive and
unstable. This first front arrives late Friday with rain and
mountain snow, mainly near the Canadian border, then quickly
pushing south and east Friday evening with showers persisting in
extreme eastern Washington and north Idaho into the night. An
upper level low descends south from the Gulf of Alaska and keeps
the unsettled pattern through the weekend with a moist, unstable
southwest flow across the region. Convection will increase during
the afternoon and evening hours, as snow levels range from 3-4k ft
with a continued threat of graupel and a possible lightning
strike. By Sunday, the medium range models diverge slightly on the
track of the upper level low. The GFS and Canadian show the upper
low weakening and opening up, allowing the feature to swing
inland. The ECWMF keeps the closed circulation off the coast and
sinks it southward. Each will keep the sensible weather showery
especially in the mountains. Temperatures will hover near seasonal
normals. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon,
SE Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat
of scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  10  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  10  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  10  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 302152
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest has enjoyed the last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: With the approach of the upper trough and cold front
today, we`ve been watching a surge of mid-level moisture and
instability moving NE through Oregon. Though there is no pcpn
falling upstream (Oregon) with this elevated moisture, we still
expect large-scale forcing for ascent to release this instability
and begin to produce rain showers late tonight spreading from NE
Oregon, through the Palouse and into the Cntrl Id Panhandle.
Spokane and Coeur D`alene are on the edge of this pcpn, so don`t
be surprised if you see a few rain showers for the morning
commute. Thunder is not expected, but given the degree of
convective instability in the 700-500mb layer it`s possible.bz

Tuesday through Wednesday: A cold front is expected to pass
through the region on Tuesday. As the front begins to press
through the Cascades Tuesday morning, prefrontal showers are
possible in the Southeastern Washington and Lower Idaho Panhandle
regions. By Tuesday afternoon, the front is over the Idaho
Panhandle and bring widespread rain showers to the region. The
Cape values and lapse rates indicate a possible thunderstorm
development in Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle from the
afternoon into the early Tuesday evening. These storms are
expected to bring some lightning strikes and be short lived. By
Tuesday night the treat of thunder is gone but winds begin to pick
up in the region. Winds are expected be breezy throughout time of
Tuesday night and Wednesday with sustained around 20-25 MPH and
gusts up to 40 MPH. Snow levels will drop behind the front and
spring like snow event is possible for the mountains. Some of the
higher terrain could see an inch or two of snow but accumulation
is expected to be minimal. For Wednesday, widespread rain showers
is expected with possible graupel and small hail during the
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with upper level cold
air and diurnal heating. By wednesday night, the atmosphere
stabilizes, the wide spread showers start to decrease, and the
winds decrease as the gradient in the region weakens. /JDC

Thursday through Monday: Expect more typical spring like weather
for the Inland Northwest for the latter half of the week and
through the weekend. The ridge of high pressure will start off
along the coast for Thursday, allowing a moist northwest flow with
an embedded impulse to clip northeast Washington and the Idaho
panhandle by Thursday afternoon. Anticipate showers to increase
during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface based instability
looks marginal but could see more graupel showers and a possible
lightning strike. This impulse exits to the east Thursday night,
while the upper ridge translates into the region. Light winds and
increased stability may lead to patchy valley fog late that night
and into Friday morning. The ridge flattens out during the day on
Friday with increasing clouds as the first of many shortwaves roll
across the region. The pattern becomes quite progressive and
unstable. This first front arrives late Friday with rain and
mountain snow, mainly near the Canadian border, then quickly
pushing south and east Friday evening with showers persisting in
extreme eastern Washington and north Idaho into the night. An
upper level low descends south from the Gulf of Alaska and keeps
the unsettled pattern through the weekend with a moist, unstable
southwest flow across the region. Convection will increase during
the afternoon and evening hours, as snow levels range from 3-4k ft
with a continued threat of graupel and a possible lightning
strike. By Sunday, the medium range models diverge slightly on the
track of the upper level low. The GFS and Canadian show the upper
low weakening and opening up, allowing the feature to swing
inland. The ECWMF keeps the closed circulation off the coast and
sinks it southward. Each will keep the sensible weather showery
especially in the mountains. Temperatures will hover near seasonal
normals. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon,
SE Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat
of scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  10  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  10  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  10  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 302152
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest has enjoyed the last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: With the approach of the upper trough and cold front
today, we`ve been watching a surge of mid-level moisture and
instability moving NE through Oregon. Though there is no pcpn
falling upstream (Oregon) with this elevated moisture, we still
expect large-scale forcing for ascent to release this instability
and begin to produce rain showers late tonight spreading from NE
Oregon, through the Palouse and into the Cntrl Id Panhandle.
Spokane and Coeur D`alene are on the edge of this pcpn, so don`t
be surprised if you see a few rain showers for the morning
commute. Thunder is not expected, but given the degree of
convective instability in the 700-500mb layer it`s possible.bz

Tuesday through Wednesday: A cold front is expected to pass
through the region on Tuesday. As the front begins to press
through the Cascades Tuesday morning, prefrontal showers are
possible in the Southeastern Washington and Lower Idaho Panhandle
regions. By Tuesday afternoon, the front is over the Idaho
Panhandle and bring widespread rain showers to the region. The
Cape values and lapse rates indicate a possible thunderstorm
development in Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle from the
afternoon into the early Tuesday evening. These storms are
expected to bring some lightning strikes and be short lived. By
Tuesday night the treat of thunder is gone but winds begin to pick
up in the region. Winds are expected be breezy throughout time of
Tuesday night and Wednesday with sustained around 20-25 MPH and
gusts up to 40 MPH. Snow levels will drop behind the front and
spring like snow event is possible for the mountains. Some of the
higher terrain could see an inch or two of snow but accumulation
is expected to be minimal. For Wednesday, widespread rain showers
is expected with possible graupel and small hail during the
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with upper level cold
air and diurnal heating. By wednesday night, the atmosphere
stabilizes, the wide spread showers start to decrease, and the
winds decrease as the gradient in the region weakens. /JDC

Thursday through Monday: Expect more typical spring like weather
for the Inland Northwest for the latter half of the week and
through the weekend. The ridge of high pressure will start off
along the coast for Thursday, allowing a moist northwest flow with
an embedded impulse to clip northeast Washington and the Idaho
panhandle by Thursday afternoon. Anticipate showers to increase
during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface based instability
looks marginal but could see more graupel showers and a possible
lightning strike. This impulse exits to the east Thursday night,
while the upper ridge translates into the region. Light winds and
increased stability may lead to patchy valley fog late that night
and into Friday morning. The ridge flattens out during the day on
Friday with increasing clouds as the first of many shortwaves roll
across the region. The pattern becomes quite progressive and
unstable. This first front arrives late Friday with rain and
mountain snow, mainly near the Canadian border, then quickly
pushing south and east Friday evening with showers persisting in
extreme eastern Washington and north Idaho into the night. An
upper level low descends south from the Gulf of Alaska and keeps
the unsettled pattern through the weekend with a moist, unstable
southwest flow across the region. Convection will increase during
the afternoon and evening hours, as snow levels range from 3-4k ft
with a continued threat of graupel and a possible lightning
strike. By Sunday, the medium range models diverge slightly on the
track of the upper level low. The GFS and Canadian show the upper
low weakening and opening up, allowing the feature to swing
inland. The ECWMF keeps the closed circulation off the coast and
sinks it southward. Each will keep the sensible weather showery
especially in the mountains. Temperatures will hover near seasonal
normals. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon,
SE Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat
of scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  55  33  51  31  52 /  10  30  20  40  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  54  32  49  29  50 /  10  40  20  40  30  30
Pullman        42  53  34  48  32  49 /  20  30  20  50  30  30
Lewiston       47  57  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  20  30  20  30
Colville       38  58  33  54  30  55 /  10  60  20  40  20  30
Sandpoint      37  52  31  49  28  50 /  10  60  30  40  30  40
Kellogg        39  50  32  44  30  46 /  20  80  30  50  40  60
Moses Lake     43  59  35  57  31  59 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Wenatchee      45  57  39  56  38  58 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Omak           40  59  32  57  31  58 /  10  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 302100
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
200 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTALBAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIRMASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT SITTING NEAR 130W WILL PUSH EAST THIS
EVENING. IT REACHES THE COAST AROUND 04Z AND CROSSES I-5 AROUND
06Z WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THEN...EXPECT A MVFR
DECK AROUND 025 MSL TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT AND REMAIN THROUGH
31/18Z UNDER TRAILING SHOWERS. INSTABILITY INCREASES FURTHER
AFTER 31/18Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW COLD CORE BECOMES POSITIONED OVER
THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF THUNDER...WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL TO
BE EMBEDDED UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS ON TUESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. PREFRONTAL
CIGS AROUND 040 DEVELOP NEAR 03Z AND THEN FALL TO AROUND 020 WITH
AND AFTER THE FRONTAL CROSSING NEAR 06Z. EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF
20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSING. MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. SHOWERS
STRENGTHEN TOWARD MID-DAY WITH SMALL HAIL CHANCES INCREASING AT
THE FIELD ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR 130W WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ABOUT TO BEGIN CLIPPING THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS PEAK WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT REACH THE OUTER
WATERS AS THE FRONT CROSSES 5 TO 7 PM AND FOR THE INNER WATERS 6
TO 9 PM. SEAS HAVE REMAINED AROUND THE 10 FT HEIGHT AND WILL BRIEFLY
DROP BELOW CRITERIA TO 9 FT. DID NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT TIME BELOW CRITERIA TO JUSTIFY BREAKING UP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. ANOTHER WESTERLY SWELL WILL RETURN IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING WIND WAVES LOFTING SEAS BACK ABOVE 10 FT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
CROSSING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY HIT 12-13 FT DURING THE MAX WINDS THEN
EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY WITH EMBEDDED HAIL INSIDE OF SHOWERS HOLDING AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG WITH REGARDS TO WIND WITH MAYBE
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 301744
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1044 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today: Rising heights aloft and a surge of warm air will
work its way into Ern Wa on southerly winds to produce a dry and
warm fcst under partly to mostly mostly sunny skies. Sfc obs show
that the majority of any clouds will only be cirrus...helping to
produce high temps around 10-15F above normal. Record high temps
are not expected. The valley fog in N Idaho should be gone by late
morning.

For tonight and Tues-Wed we`ll be working on fine-tuning the
chance for showers late tonight over SE Wa and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle...followed by very gusty winds, rain and thunder for
Tue. Winds will decrease Wed. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon,
SE Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat
of scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       73  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       68  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     71  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      70  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           70  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301744
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1044 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today: Rising heights aloft and a surge of warm air will
work its way into Ern Wa on southerly winds to produce a dry and
warm fcst under partly to mostly mostly sunny skies. Sfc obs show
that the majority of any clouds will only be cirrus...helping to
produce high temps around 10-15F above normal. Record high temps
are not expected. The valley fog in N Idaho should be gone by late
morning.

For tonight and Tues-Wed we`ll be working on fine-tuning the
chance for showers late tonight over SE Wa and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle...followed by very gusty winds, rain and thunder for
Tue. Winds will decrease Wed. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon,
SE Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat
of scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       73  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       68  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     71  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      70  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           70  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301744
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1044 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today: Rising heights aloft and a surge of warm air will
work its way into Ern Wa on southerly winds to produce a dry and
warm fcst under partly to mostly mostly sunny skies. Sfc obs show
that the majority of any clouds will only be cirrus...helping to
produce high temps around 10-15F above normal. Record high temps
are not expected. The valley fog in N Idaho should be gone by late
morning.

For tonight and Tues-Wed we`ll be working on fine-tuning the
chance for showers late tonight over SE Wa and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle...followed by very gusty winds, rain and thunder for
Tue. Winds will decrease Wed. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon,
SE Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat
of scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       73  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       68  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     71  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      70  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           70  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301744
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1044 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today: Rising heights aloft and a surge of warm air will
work its way into Ern Wa on southerly winds to produce a dry and
warm fcst under partly to mostly mostly sunny skies. Sfc obs show
that the majority of any clouds will only be cirrus...helping to
produce high temps around 10-15F above normal. Record high temps
are not expected. The valley fog in N Idaho should be gone by late
morning.

For tonight and Tues-Wed we`ll be working on fine-tuning the
chance for showers late tonight over SE Wa and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle...followed by very gusty winds, rain and thunder for
Tue. Winds will decrease Wed. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon,
SE Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat
of scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       73  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       68  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     71  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      70  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           70  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 301602
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. IS CLIPPING WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
AIR MASS IS PRETTY MILD AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE S/SE TONIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF WETTER
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH RAIN IN THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT
WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDEX AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S - A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
GIVE THE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BEFORE A FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT DOWN THE NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE OPENING
UP AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TACK...OPENING THE LOW UP AND BRINGING IT INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REFLECT A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&


.AVIATION...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ID
AT 15Z WILL MOVE OVER W MT BY 00Z. A COLD FRONT ALONG 130W AT 15Z
WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE N COAST AROUND
03Z AND CROSSING PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA IS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND STABLE WITH CIGS MAINLY
SCT-BKN050-070 WITH HIGHER LAYERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS MAINLY OVER
S PUGET SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP CIGS
MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z WITH CLOUD LAYERS
SCT-BKN060 AND HIGHER. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN CROSSES PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE S-SW 6-12 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER W WA TODAY...WHILE
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE N COAST THIS EVENING AROUND 8 PM THEN CROSS PUGET SOUND
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR S WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR BOTH THE COAST AND INLAND WATERS. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE S WINDS THROUGH THE
INLAND WATERS TODAY WITH POCKETS OF WINDS PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 KT.

STRONG WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRAIT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THERE REMAINS
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS40
UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT REACHES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 MB WHICH WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE 06Z CANADIAN LAM TOP THE WINDS AT 30 KT FOR A HIGH END
SCA.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH W PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE STRAIT FOR SCA WINDS IN THE EVENINGS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BAR CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH AS WELL.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
       STRAIT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 301602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ANY RAIN ALONG
THE S WA COAST HAD ENDED THIS MORNING AS THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY WITH THE INLAND RIDGE BUILDING AND THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE DIGGING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING SUGGESTING INLAND CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WHILE ALONG THE COAST THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK
UP OF THE CLOUDS BEFORE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW LATE TODAY FILLS THE
CLOUDS BACK IN AT THE END OF THE DAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINED IN A
MILD AIR MASS WITH H8 TEMPS AT SLE AT 12Z AROUND 4C. INLAND CLOUDS
MAY PROVIDE A SLOW START TO TEMPS RISING EARLY TODAY BUT LIKELY WILL
STILL SEE SUFFICIENT SUN THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. ALONG THE COAST THE MORNING STRATUS AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPS TO 55 TO 60 RANGE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND
4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION
THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH
UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS
ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE
FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN
OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP
THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.
.AVIATION...A RADIATIONALLY COOLED MARINE STRATUS LAYER FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND IS APPEARING
IN SOME FORM AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTTD. PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE IT IS ABOUT 800 FEET THICK WITH TOPS 011 TO 014 AGL. A
VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING IT MOSTLY CONFINED FROM THE
WILLAMETTE RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE VALLEY. KEUG IS ON THE FRINGE
OF THE DECK AND THEY MAY GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO MIX
THE CLOUDS UP BEFORE THEY GET TOO THICK. OTHERWISE...LOCAL SINGLE
COLUMN MODEL INDICATES A BREAKUP AROUND 18Z BUT GIVEN THE FACT
THE STRATUS DOES NOT COVER THE ENTIRE VALLEY...WILL NUDGE AN HOUR
EARLIER DUE TO SUN SNEAKING UNDERNEATH FROM THE EAST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER THAT MARINE STRATUS INFLUENCE
BUT BEGIN TO LIFT SOME TOWARDS AFTERNOON WHEN PREFRONTAL WINDS AND
INSTABILITY REACH THE COAST.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND 04Z AND CROSSES I-5 AROUND
06Z WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS. THEN EXPECT A MVFR DECK
AROUND 025 MSL TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH 31/18Z UNDER
TRAILING SHOWERS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH 17Z.
PREFRONTAL CIGS AROUND 040 DEVELOP NEAR 03Z AND THEN FALL TO
AROUND 020 WITH AND AFTER THE FRONTAL CROSSING NEAR 06Z. EXPECT A
BRIEF BURST OF 20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSING.
MVFR CIGS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY DELAYED AGAIN AND A BIT WEAKER WITH
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. WILL SEE PEAK WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT REACH THE OUTER WATERS AS THE FRONT CROSSES 5
TO 7 PM AND FOR THE INNER WATERS 6 TO 9 PM. SEAS HAVE REMAINED
AROUND THE 10 FT HEIGHT AND MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA TO 9
FT BUT DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TIME TO JUSTIFY
BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS GIVEN ANOTHER
WESTERLY SWELL WILL RETURN PLUS INCREASING WIND WAVES WILL LOFT
THEM BACK ABOVE 10 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY HIT 12-13 FT DURING
THE MAX WINDS THEN EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. JBONK/MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 301602
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. IS CLIPPING WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
AIR MASS IS PRETTY MILD AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE S/SE TONIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF WETTER
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH RAIN IN THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT
WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDEX AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S - A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
GIVE THE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BEFORE A FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT DOWN THE NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE OPENING
UP AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TACK...OPENING THE LOW UP AND BRINGING IT INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REFLECT A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&


.AVIATION...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ID
AT 15Z WILL MOVE OVER W MT BY 00Z. A COLD FRONT ALONG 130W AT 15Z
WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE N COAST AROUND
03Z AND CROSSING PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA IS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND STABLE WITH CIGS MAINLY
SCT-BKN050-070 WITH HIGHER LAYERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS MAINLY OVER
S PUGET SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP CIGS
MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z WITH CLOUD LAYERS
SCT-BKN060 AND HIGHER. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN CROSSES PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE S-SW 6-12 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER W WA TODAY...WHILE
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE N COAST THIS EVENING AROUND 8 PM THEN CROSS PUGET SOUND
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR S WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR BOTH THE COAST AND INLAND WATERS. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE S WINDS THROUGH THE
INLAND WATERS TODAY WITH POCKETS OF WINDS PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 KT.

STRONG WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRAIT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THERE REMAINS
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS40
UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT REACHES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 MB WHICH WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE 06Z CANADIAN LAM TOP THE WINDS AT 30 KT FOR A HIGH END
SCA.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH W PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE STRAIT FOR SCA WINDS IN THE EVENINGS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BAR CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH AS WELL.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
       STRAIT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 301602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ANY RAIN ALONG
THE S WA COAST HAD ENDED THIS MORNING AS THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY WITH THE INLAND RIDGE BUILDING AND THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE DIGGING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING SUGGESTING INLAND CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WHILE ALONG THE COAST THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK
UP OF THE CLOUDS BEFORE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW LATE TODAY FILLS THE
CLOUDS BACK IN AT THE END OF THE DAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINED IN A
MILD AIR MASS WITH H8 TEMPS AT SLE AT 12Z AROUND 4C. INLAND CLOUDS
MAY PROVIDE A SLOW START TO TEMPS RISING EARLY TODAY BUT LIKELY WILL
STILL SEE SUFFICIENT SUN THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. ALONG THE COAST THE MORNING STRATUS AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPS TO 55 TO 60 RANGE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND
4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION
THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH
UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS
ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE
FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN
OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP
THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.
.AVIATION...A RADIATIONALLY COOLED MARINE STRATUS LAYER FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND IS APPEARING
IN SOME FORM AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTTD. PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE IT IS ABOUT 800 FEET THICK WITH TOPS 011 TO 014 AGL. A
VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING IT MOSTLY CONFINED FROM THE
WILLAMETTE RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE VALLEY. KEUG IS ON THE FRINGE
OF THE DECK AND THEY MAY GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO MIX
THE CLOUDS UP BEFORE THEY GET TOO THICK. OTHERWISE...LOCAL SINGLE
COLUMN MODEL INDICATES A BREAKUP AROUND 18Z BUT GIVEN THE FACT
THE STRATUS DOES NOT COVER THE ENTIRE VALLEY...WILL NUDGE AN HOUR
EARLIER DUE TO SUN SNEAKING UNDERNEATH FROM THE EAST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER THAT MARINE STRATUS INFLUENCE
BUT BEGIN TO LIFT SOME TOWARDS AFTERNOON WHEN PREFRONTAL WINDS AND
INSTABILITY REACH THE COAST.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND 04Z AND CROSSES I-5 AROUND
06Z WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS. THEN EXPECT A MVFR DECK
AROUND 025 MSL TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH 31/18Z UNDER
TRAILING SHOWERS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH 17Z.
PREFRONTAL CIGS AROUND 040 DEVELOP NEAR 03Z AND THEN FALL TO
AROUND 020 WITH AND AFTER THE FRONTAL CROSSING NEAR 06Z. EXPECT A
BRIEF BURST OF 20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSING.
MVFR CIGS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY DELAYED AGAIN AND A BIT WEAKER WITH
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. WILL SEE PEAK WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT REACH THE OUTER WATERS AS THE FRONT CROSSES 5
TO 7 PM AND FOR THE INNER WATERS 6 TO 9 PM. SEAS HAVE REMAINED
AROUND THE 10 FT HEIGHT AND MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA TO 9
FT BUT DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TIME TO JUSTIFY
BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS GIVEN ANOTHER
WESTERLY SWELL WILL RETURN PLUS INCREASING WIND WAVES WILL LOFT
THEM BACK ABOVE 10 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY HIT 12-13 FT DURING
THE MAX WINDS THEN EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. JBONK/MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ANY RAIN ALONG
THE S WA COAST HAD ENDED THIS MORNING AS THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY WITH THE INLAND RIDGE BUILDING AND THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE DIGGING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING SUGGESTING INLAND CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WHILE ALONG THE COAST THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK
UP OF THE CLOUDS BEFORE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW LATE TODAY FILLS THE
CLOUDS BACK IN AT THE END OF THE DAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINED IN A
MILD AIR MASS WITH H8 TEMPS AT SLE AT 12Z AROUND 4C. INLAND CLOUDS
MAY PROVIDE A SLOW START TO TEMPS RISING EARLY TODAY BUT LIKELY WILL
STILL SEE SUFFICIENT SUN THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. ALONG THE COAST THE MORNING STRATUS AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPS TO 55 TO 60 RANGE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND
4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION
THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH
UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS
ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE
FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN
OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP
THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.
.AVIATION...A RADIATIONALLY COOLED MARINE STRATUS LAYER FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND IS APPEARING
IN SOME FORM AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTTD. PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE IT IS ABOUT 800 FEET THICK WITH TOPS 011 TO 014 AGL. A
VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING IT MOSTLY CONFINED FROM THE
WILLAMETTE RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE VALLEY. KEUG IS ON THE FRINGE
OF THE DECK AND THEY MAY GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO MIX
THE CLOUDS UP BEFORE THEY GET TOO THICK. OTHERWISE...LOCAL SINGLE
COLUMN MODEL INDICATES A BREAKUP AROUND 18Z BUT GIVEN THE FACT
THE STRATUS DOES NOT COVER THE ENTIRE VALLEY...WILL NUDGE AN HOUR
EARLIER DUE TO SUN SNEAKING UNDERNEATH FROM THE EAST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER THAT MARINE STRATUS INFLUENCE
BUT BEGIN TO LIFT SOME TOWARDS AFTERNOON WHEN PREFRONTAL WINDS AND
INSTABILITY REACH THE COAST.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND 04Z AND CROSSES I-5 AROUND
06Z WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS. THEN EXPECT A MVFR DECK
AROUND 025 MSL TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH 31/18Z UNDER
TRAILING SHOWERS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH 17Z.
PREFRONTAL CIGS AROUND 040 DEVELOP NEAR 03Z AND THEN FALL TO
AROUND 020 WITH AND AFTER THE FRONTAL CROSSING NEAR 06Z. EXPECT A
BRIEF BURST OF 20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSING.
MVFR CIGS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY DELAYED AGAIN AND A BIT WEAKER WITH
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. WILL SEE PEAK WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT REACH THE OUTER WATERS AS THE FRONT CROSSES 5
TO 7 PM AND FOR THE INNER WATERS 6 TO 9 PM. SEAS HAVE REMAINED
AROUND THE 10 FT HEIGHT AND MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA TO 9
FT BUT DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TIME TO JUSTIFY
BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS GIVEN ANOTHER
WESTERLY SWELL WILL RETURN PLUS INCREASING WIND WAVES WILL LOFT
THEM BACK ABOVE 10 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY HIT 12-13 FT DURING
THE MAX WINDS THEN EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. JBONK/MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ANY RAIN ALONG
THE S WA COAST HAD ENDED THIS MORNING AS THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY WITH THE INLAND RIDGE BUILDING AND THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE DIGGING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING SUGGESTING INLAND CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WHILE ALONG THE COAST THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK
UP OF THE CLOUDS BEFORE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW LATE TODAY FILLS THE
CLOUDS BACK IN AT THE END OF THE DAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINED IN A
MILD AIR MASS WITH H8 TEMPS AT SLE AT 12Z AROUND 4C. INLAND CLOUDS
MAY PROVIDE A SLOW START TO TEMPS RISING EARLY TODAY BUT LIKELY WILL
STILL SEE SUFFICIENT SUN THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. ALONG THE COAST THE MORNING STRATUS AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPS TO 55 TO 60 RANGE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND
4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION
THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH
UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS
ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE
FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN
OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP
THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.
.AVIATION...A RADIATIONALLY COOLED MARINE STRATUS LAYER FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND IS APPEARING
IN SOME FORM AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTTD. PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE IT IS ABOUT 800 FEET THICK WITH TOPS 011 TO 014 AGL. A
VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING IT MOSTLY CONFINED FROM THE
WILLAMETTE RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE VALLEY. KEUG IS ON THE FRINGE
OF THE DECK AND THEY MAY GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO MIX
THE CLOUDS UP BEFORE THEY GET TOO THICK. OTHERWISE...LOCAL SINGLE
COLUMN MODEL INDICATES A BREAKUP AROUND 18Z BUT GIVEN THE FACT
THE STRATUS DOES NOT COVER THE ENTIRE VALLEY...WILL NUDGE AN HOUR
EARLIER DUE TO SUN SNEAKING UNDERNEATH FROM THE EAST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER THAT MARINE STRATUS INFLUENCE
BUT BEGIN TO LIFT SOME TOWARDS AFTERNOON WHEN PREFRONTAL WINDS AND
INSTABILITY REACH THE COAST.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND 04Z AND CROSSES I-5 AROUND
06Z WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS. THEN EXPECT A MVFR DECK
AROUND 025 MSL TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH 31/18Z UNDER
TRAILING SHOWERS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH 17Z.
PREFRONTAL CIGS AROUND 040 DEVELOP NEAR 03Z AND THEN FALL TO
AROUND 020 WITH AND AFTER THE FRONTAL CROSSING NEAR 06Z. EXPECT A
BRIEF BURST OF 20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSING.
MVFR CIGS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY DELAYED AGAIN AND A BIT WEAKER WITH
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. WILL SEE PEAK WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT REACH THE OUTER WATERS AS THE FRONT CROSSES 5
TO 7 PM AND FOR THE INNER WATERS 6 TO 9 PM. SEAS HAVE REMAINED
AROUND THE 10 FT HEIGHT AND MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA TO 9
FT BUT DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TIME TO JUSTIFY
BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS GIVEN ANOTHER
WESTERLY SWELL WILL RETURN PLUS INCREASING WIND WAVES WILL LOFT
THEM BACK ABOVE 10 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY HIT 12-13 FT DURING
THE MAX WINDS THEN EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. JBONK/MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 301602
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. IS CLIPPING WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
AIR MASS IS PRETTY MILD AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE S/SE TONIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF WETTER
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH RAIN IN THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT
WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDEX AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S - A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
GIVE THE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BEFORE A FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT DOWN THE NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE OPENING
UP AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TACK...OPENING THE LOW UP AND BRINGING IT INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REFLECT A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&


.AVIATION...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ID
AT 15Z WILL MOVE OVER W MT BY 00Z. A COLD FRONT ALONG 130W AT 15Z
WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE N COAST AROUND
03Z AND CROSSING PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA IS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND STABLE WITH CIGS MAINLY
SCT-BKN050-070 WITH HIGHER LAYERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS MAINLY OVER
S PUGET SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP CIGS
MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z WITH CLOUD LAYERS
SCT-BKN060 AND HIGHER. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN CROSSES PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE S-SW 6-12 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER W WA TODAY...WHILE
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE N COAST THIS EVENING AROUND 8 PM THEN CROSS PUGET SOUND
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR S WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR BOTH THE COAST AND INLAND WATERS. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE S WINDS THROUGH THE
INLAND WATERS TODAY WITH POCKETS OF WINDS PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 KT.

STRONG WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRAIT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THERE REMAINS
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS40
UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT REACHES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 MB WHICH WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE 06Z CANADIAN LAM TOP THE WINDS AT 30 KT FOR A HIGH END
SCA.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH W PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE STRAIT FOR SCA WINDS IN THE EVENINGS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BAR CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH AS WELL.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
       STRAIT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 301602
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. IS CLIPPING WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
AIR MASS IS PRETTY MILD AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE S/SE TONIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF WETTER
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH RAIN IN THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT
WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDEX AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S - A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
GIVE THE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BEFORE A FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT DOWN THE NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE OPENING
UP AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TACK...OPENING THE LOW UP AND BRINGING IT INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REFLECT A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&


.AVIATION...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ID
AT 15Z WILL MOVE OVER W MT BY 00Z. A COLD FRONT ALONG 130W AT 15Z
WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE N COAST AROUND
03Z AND CROSSING PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA IS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND STABLE WITH CIGS MAINLY
SCT-BKN050-070 WITH HIGHER LAYERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS MAINLY OVER
S PUGET SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP CIGS
MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z WITH CLOUD LAYERS
SCT-BKN060 AND HIGHER. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN CROSSES PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE S-SW 6-12 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER W WA TODAY...WHILE
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE N COAST THIS EVENING AROUND 8 PM THEN CROSS PUGET SOUND
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR S WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR BOTH THE COAST AND INLAND WATERS. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE S WINDS THROUGH THE
INLAND WATERS TODAY WITH POCKETS OF WINDS PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 KT.

STRONG WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRAIT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THERE REMAINS
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS40
UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT REACHES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 MB WHICH WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE 06Z CANADIAN LAM TOP THE WINDS AT 30 KT FOR A HIGH END
SCA.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH W PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE STRAIT FOR SCA WINDS IN THE EVENINGS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BAR CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH AS WELL.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
       STRAIT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 301602
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. IS CLIPPING WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
AIR MASS IS PRETTY MILD AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE S/SE TONIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF WETTER
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH RAIN IN THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT
WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDEX AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S - A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
GIVE THE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BEFORE A FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT DOWN THE NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE OPENING
UP AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TACK...OPENING THE LOW UP AND BRINGING IT INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REFLECT A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&


.AVIATION...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ID
AT 15Z WILL MOVE OVER W MT BY 00Z. A COLD FRONT ALONG 130W AT 15Z
WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE N COAST AROUND
03Z AND CROSSING PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA IS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND STABLE WITH CIGS MAINLY
SCT-BKN050-070 WITH HIGHER LAYERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS MAINLY OVER
S PUGET SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP CIGS
MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z WITH CLOUD LAYERS
SCT-BKN060 AND HIGHER. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN CROSSES PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE S-SW 6-12 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER W WA TODAY...WHILE
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE N COAST THIS EVENING AROUND 8 PM THEN CROSS PUGET SOUND
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR S WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR BOTH THE COAST AND INLAND WATERS. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE S WINDS THROUGH THE
INLAND WATERS TODAY WITH POCKETS OF WINDS PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 KT.

STRONG WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRAIT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THERE REMAINS
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS40
UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT REACHES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 MB WHICH WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE 06Z CANADIAN LAM TOP THE WINDS AT 30 KT FOR A HIGH END
SCA.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH W PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE STRAIT FOR SCA WINDS IN THE EVENINGS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BAR CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH AS WELL.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
       STRAIT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 301602
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. IS CLIPPING WESTERN WA
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
AIR MASS IS PRETTY MILD AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE S/SE TONIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF WETTER
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH RAIN IN THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT
WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ENHANCE AMOUNTS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDEX AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S - A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
GIVE THE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BEFORE A FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT DOWN THE NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE OPENING
UP AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TACK...OPENING THE LOW UP AND BRINGING IT INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REFLECT A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&


.AVIATION...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ID
AT 15Z WILL MOVE OVER W MT BY 00Z. A COLD FRONT ALONG 130W AT 15Z
WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE N COAST AROUND
03Z AND CROSSING PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA IS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND STABLE WITH CIGS MAINLY
SCT-BKN050-070 WITH HIGHER LAYERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS MAINLY OVER
S PUGET SOUND AND THE SW INTERIOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP CIGS
MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z WITH CLOUD LAYERS
SCT-BKN060 AND HIGHER. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN CROSSES PUGET SOUND AROUND 06Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE S-SW 6-12 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER W WA TODAY...WHILE
AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE N COAST THIS EVENING AROUND 8 PM THEN CROSS PUGET SOUND
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR S WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR BOTH THE COAST AND INLAND WATERS. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE S WINDS THROUGH THE
INLAND WATERS TODAY WITH POCKETS OF WINDS PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 KT.

STRONG WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRAIT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THERE REMAINS
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING WIND SPEEDS. THE GFS40
UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT REACHES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 MB WHICH WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE 06Z CANADIAN LAM TOP THE WINDS AT 30 KT FOR A HIGH END
SCA.

WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH W PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE STRAIT FOR SCA WINDS IN THE EVENINGS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE AREA FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BAR CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH AS WELL.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
       STRAIT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 301539
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
838 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today: Rising heights aloft and a surge of warm air will
work its way into Ern Wa on southerly winds to produce a dry and
warm fcst under partly to mostly mostly sunny skies. Sfc obs show
that the majority of any clouds will only be cirrus...helping to
produce high temps around 10-15F above normal. Record high temps
are not expected. The valley fog in N Idaho should be gone by late
morning.

For tonight and Tues-Wed we`ll be working on fine-tuning the
chance for showers late tonight over SE Wa and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle...followed by very gusty winds, rain and thunder for
Tue. Winds will decrease Wed. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will be in the warm sector today
and tonight ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Tuesday
morning. Scattered to broken 15 to 20 thousand foot clouds are
expected from 12z-06z region-wide. Between 06z-12z, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern Idaho Panhandle will have the
potential to produce scattered high-based showers. The Lewiston,
Pullman, and Coeur D`Alene TAFs have the possibility of showers
in a PROB30 group. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes isn`t out
of the question in the vicinity of these airports. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       73  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       68  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     71  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      70  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           70  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301539
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
838 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today: Rising heights aloft and a surge of warm air will
work its way into Ern Wa on southerly winds to produce a dry and
warm fcst under partly to mostly mostly sunny skies. Sfc obs show
that the majority of any clouds will only be cirrus...helping to
produce high temps around 10-15F above normal. Record high temps
are not expected. The valley fog in N Idaho should be gone by late
morning.

For tonight and Tues-Wed we`ll be working on fine-tuning the
chance for showers late tonight over SE Wa and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle...followed by very gusty winds, rain and thunder for
Tue. Winds will decrease Wed. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will be in the warm sector today
and tonight ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Tuesday
morning. Scattered to broken 15 to 20 thousand foot clouds are
expected from 12z-06z region-wide. Between 06z-12z, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern Idaho Panhandle will have the
potential to produce scattered high-based showers. The Lewiston,
Pullman, and Coeur D`Alene TAFs have the possibility of showers
in a PROB30 group. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes isn`t out
of the question in the vicinity of these airports. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       73  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       68  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     71  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      70  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           70  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301539
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
838 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today: Rising heights aloft and a surge of warm air will
work its way into Ern Wa on southerly winds to produce a dry and
warm fcst under partly to mostly mostly sunny skies. Sfc obs show
that the majority of any clouds will only be cirrus...helping to
produce high temps around 10-15F above normal. Record high temps
are not expected. The valley fog in N Idaho should be gone by late
morning.

For tonight and Tues-Wed we`ll be working on fine-tuning the
chance for showers late tonight over SE Wa and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle...followed by very gusty winds, rain and thunder for
Tue. Winds will decrease Wed. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will be in the warm sector today
and tonight ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Tuesday
morning. Scattered to broken 15 to 20 thousand foot clouds are
expected from 12z-06z region-wide. Between 06z-12z, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern Idaho Panhandle will have the
potential to produce scattered high-based showers. The Lewiston,
Pullman, and Coeur D`Alene TAFs have the possibility of showers
in a PROB30 group. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes isn`t out
of the question in the vicinity of these airports. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       73  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       68  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     71  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      70  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           70  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301539
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
838 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today: Rising heights aloft and a surge of warm air will
work its way into Ern Wa on southerly winds to produce a dry and
warm fcst under partly to mostly mostly sunny skies. Sfc obs show
that the majority of any clouds will only be cirrus...helping to
produce high temps around 10-15F above normal. Record high temps
are not expected. The valley fog in N Idaho should be gone by late
morning.

For tonight and Tues-Wed we`ll be working on fine-tuning the
chance for showers late tonight over SE Wa and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle...followed by very gusty winds, rain and thunder for
Tue. Winds will decrease Wed. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will be in the warm sector today
and tonight ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Tuesday
morning. Scattered to broken 15 to 20 thousand foot clouds are
expected from 12z-06z region-wide. Between 06z-12z, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern Idaho Panhandle will have the
potential to produce scattered high-based showers. The Lewiston,
Pullman, and Coeur D`Alene TAFs have the possibility of showers
in a PROB30 group. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes isn`t out
of the question in the vicinity of these airports. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       73  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       68  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     71  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      70  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           70  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301314 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
614 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301314 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
614 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301314 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
614 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301314 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
614 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 301142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts compared to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM and ECMWF late Monday
  night into Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will be in the warm sector today
and tonight ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Tuesday
morning. Scattered to broken 15 to 20 thousand foot clouds are
expected from 12z-06z region-wide. Between 06z-12z, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern Idaho Panhandle will have the
potential to produce scattered high-based showers. The Lewiston,
Pullman, and Coeur D`Alene TAFs have the possibility of showers
in a PROB30 group. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes isn`t out
of the question in the vicinity of these airports. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts compared to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM and ECMWF late Monday
  night into Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will be in the warm sector today
and tonight ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Tuesday
morning. Scattered to broken 15 to 20 thousand foot clouds are
expected from 12z-06z region-wide. Between 06z-12z, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern Idaho Panhandle will have the
potential to produce scattered high-based showers. The Lewiston,
Pullman, and Coeur D`Alene TAFs have the possibility of showers
in a PROB30 group. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes isn`t out
of the question in the vicinity of these airports. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts compared to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM and ECMWF late Monday
  night into Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will be in the warm sector today
and tonight ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Tuesday
morning. Scattered to broken 15 to 20 thousand foot clouds are
expected from 12z-06z region-wide. Between 06z-12z, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern Idaho Panhandle will have the
potential to produce scattered high-based showers. The Lewiston,
Pullman, and Coeur D`Alene TAFs have the possibility of showers
in a PROB30 group. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes isn`t out
of the question in the vicinity of these airports. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts compared to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM and ECMWF late Monday
  night into Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will be in the warm sector today
and tonight ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Tuesday
morning. Scattered to broken 15 to 20 thousand foot clouds are
expected from 12z-06z region-wide. Between 06z-12z, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern Idaho Panhandle will have the
potential to produce scattered high-based showers. The Lewiston,
Pullman, and Coeur D`Alene TAFs have the possibility of showers
in a PROB30 group. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes isn`t out
of the question in the vicinity of these airports. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts compared to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM and ECMWF late Monday
  night into Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will be in the warm sector today
and tonight ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Tuesday
morning. Scattered to broken 15 to 20 thousand foot clouds are
expected from 12z-06z region-wide. Between 06z-12z, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern Idaho Panhandle will have the
potential to produce scattered high-based showers. The Lewiston,
Pullman, and Coeur D`Alene TAFs have the possibility of showers
in a PROB30 group. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes isn`t out
of the question in the vicinity of these airports. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts compared to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM and ECMWF late Monday
  night into Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest will be in the warm sector today
and tonight ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Tuesday
morning. Scattered to broken 15 to 20 thousand foot clouds are
expected from 12z-06z region-wide. Between 06z-12z, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern Idaho Panhandle will have the
potential to produce scattered high-based showers. The Lewiston,
Pullman, and Coeur D`Alene TAFs have the possibility of showers
in a PROB30 group. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes isn`t out
of the question in the vicinity of these airports. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 301037
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AT TIMES TO THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR OVER THE LAST DAY WILL SHIFT INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY. EVENING
MODEL RUNS WERE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...BUT
SILL SPREAD RAIN THROUGH INTO THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE CASCADES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE INTERIOR...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND
3000 FT. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE POST FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE CASCADES OF
SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES MAY EQUATE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OREGON LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY BOOST SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY GIVE THE A BREAK
IN THE SHOWERS BEFORE A FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE EUROPEAN
BRINGS IT DOWN THE NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE OPENING UP AND MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES A MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE TACK...OPENING THE LOW UP AND BRINGING IT INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REFLECT A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST BELOW 10000 FT...AND IT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SCT030 OVC060-080 AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN -- MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. ON THE WHOLE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND LOCAL IFR LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 6-12 KT TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12-16 KT
GUSTING 24 KT THIS EVENING.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW MAKES WESTERLY GALES
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA APPEAR LIKELY LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE
THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. PSPC VANCOUVER HAS A GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT AS WELL.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BAR CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH AS WELL.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
AREA FRIDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
       STRAIT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 301037
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AT TIMES TO THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR OVER THE LAST DAY WILL SHIFT INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY. EVENING
MODEL RUNS WERE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...BUT
SILL SPREAD RAIN THROUGH INTO THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE CASCADES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE INTERIOR...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND
3000 FT. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE POST FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE CASCADES OF
SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES MAY EQUATE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OREGON LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY BOOST SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY GIVE THE A BREAK
IN THE SHOWERS BEFORE A FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE EUROPEAN
BRINGS IT DOWN THE NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE OPENING UP AND MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES A MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE TACK...OPENING THE LOW UP AND BRINGING IT INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REFLECT A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST BELOW 10000 FT...AND IT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SCT030 OVC060-080 AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN -- MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. ON THE WHOLE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND LOCAL IFR LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 6-12 KT TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12-16 KT
GUSTING 24 KT THIS EVENING.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW MAKES WESTERLY GALES
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA APPEAR LIKELY LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE
THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. PSPC VANCOUVER HAS A GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT AS WELL.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BAR CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH AS WELL.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
AREA FRIDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
       STRAIT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 301037
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AT TIMES TO THE
COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR OVER THE LAST DAY WILL SHIFT INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY. EVENING
MODEL RUNS WERE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...BUT
SILL SPREAD RAIN THROUGH INTO THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE CASCADES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE INTERIOR...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND
3000 FT. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE POST FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE CASCADES OF
SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES MAY EQUATE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OREGON LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY BOOST SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY GIVE THE A BREAK
IN THE SHOWERS BEFORE A FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE EUROPEAN
BRINGS IT DOWN THE NORTHWEST COAST BEFORE OPENING UP AND MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES A MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE TACK...OPENING THE LOW UP AND BRINGING IT INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REFLECT A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST BELOW 10000 FT...AND IT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SCT030 OVC060-080 AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN -- MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. ON THE WHOLE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND LOCAL IFR LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 6-12 KT TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12-16 KT
GUSTING 24 KT THIS EVENING.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW MAKES WESTERLY GALES
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA APPEAR LIKELY LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE
THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. PSPC VANCOUVER HAS A GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT AS WELL.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BAR CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH AS WELL.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
AREA FRIDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE
       STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET
       SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
       STRAIT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KPQR 301027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 300958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts COMPARED to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM late Monday night into
  Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts COMPARED to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM late Monday night into
  Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 300958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts COMPARED to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM late Monday night into
  Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts COMPARED to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM late Monday night into
  Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts COMPARED to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM late Monday night into
  Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will enjoy one last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN...PALOUSE...WEST PLAINS...

Today: Our flat upper level ridge will amplify a bit today ahead
of an approaching cold front. The subtle increase in deep
southerly flow will draw unseasonably mild temperatures into the
region. With 850mb temperatures ranging from 8-11C across the
Inland Northwest, we are expecting afternoon highs to reach the
60s. Warm spots along the Snake and Columbia Rivers in southeast
and south central Washington will likely eclipse 70. These
readings are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Tuesday: Big changes will arrive by the early morning hours on
Tuesday with the arrival of a fast moving cold front. Gusty west
winds, falling snow levels, and the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms will be associated with this vigorous early spring
storm system.

* Winds: Compared to model runs 24 hours ago, the wind speeds have
  trended down a bit. The GFS continues to prog stronger 850mb
  winds than the NAM...35-40kts COMPARED to 30-35kts. Local
  verification studies suggest that GFS MOS guidance performs
  better in post cold front wind events, and the GFS guidance
  looks pretty reasonable forecasting sustained winds of 20 to 25
  mph Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. A tight pressure
  gradient combined with steep lapse rates to 700mb during the
  afternoon hours suggest very efficient mixing of downward
  momentum. Add the potential for downdrafts from convective
  showers over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
  Washington, it looks like gusts up to 40 mph will be a pretty
  good bet from the Waterville Plateau to Spokane to Pullman.

* Precipitation: This frontal system will not bring as much deep
  layer moisture as last Saturday`s front. Much of the
  precipitation with this system will be generated by convection.
  Strong cold advection is advertised with 500mb temperatures of
  -32C arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. Look for snow levels to
  plunge to 3000 feet over the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon, and
  to 3500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. The
  mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will have a good shot of a
  couple inches of snow by Tuesday night. Travel probably won`t be
  impacted much in the Idaho Panhandle, but there will be a chance
  that a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could become established
  near Stevens Pass Tuesday afternoon/night. Motorists on Highway
  2 could experience some slick driving conditions Tuesday night.

* Thunderstorm Potential: Prefrontal elevated instability
  continues to be advertised by the NAM late Monday night into
  Tuesday morning over southeast Washington into the
  central/southern Panhandle. A handful of pre-cold front strikes
  around Lewiston, Pullman, and St Maries isn`t out of the
  question overnight. Then Tuesday afternoon, strong upper level
  cooling will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred
  joules/kg of surface based CAPE over northeast Washington and
  the Idaho Panhandle. The deep layer cooling may actually push
  LCLs (Lifting Condensation Levels) too cold Tuesday
  afternoon/evening for thunderstorms. LCLs colder than -5C often
  times don`t produce much lightning and yield graupel showers.
  With that in mind, only isolated thunder is in the forecast from
  Colville to Sandpoint to Spokane to Kellogg Tuesday afternoon.
  /GKoch

Wednesday through Thursday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will be over the region. A -33 C cold pool aloft at 500
mbs will result in a destabilizing atmosphere during the
afternoon. All of the region will see a chance for showers on
Wednesday. The cold pool will then focus showers mainly across
extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle on Thursday. There is a
high probability for soft hail or graupel showers. Temperatures
are expected to feel more like what is typical for March and
should be slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s with lows dipping down into the mid 20s and
mid 30s across most locations.

Thursday night through Sunday: Models are in decent agreement with
another cold upper level low pressure system dropping down out of
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some discrepancies with where this
trough will dig. The ECMWF model has the upper trough digging a
bit more offshore, whereas the GFS model digs the trough further
east more over the Northwest. The ECMWF depiction would result in
a slight bump up in temperatures with southerly flow into the
region. The GFS depiction would keep temperatures at or slightly
below normal through this period. Either way it looks as if this
upper low will swing in over the region at some point. This will
keep the weather unsettled with precip chances at least above
climatology. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  42  55  33  50  29 /   0  10  30  10  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  40  56  32  47  27 /   0  10  40  20  40  40
Pullman        67  42  55  33  47  30 /   0  20  30  20  40  40
Lewiston       72  47  59  37  53  32 /   0  20  40  10  30  30
Colville       66  38  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  60  30  40  40
Sandpoint      61  37  54  33  47  26 /   0  10  60  30  40  50
Kellogg        65  39  52  32  44  29 /   0  20  80  30  50  50
Moses Lake     70  43  61  35  56  30 /   0  10  20  10  20  20
Wenatchee      68  45  61  37  54  36 /   0  10  10  10  20  10
Omak           68  40  62  31  54  31 /   0  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada through Monday
producing mild weather for the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend will be showery with temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday: Another in a series of quick-moving warm
fronts will lift NE across Ern Wa overnight, then into BC Monday
morning. Though there`s fairly deep isentropic ascent over this
boundary, the column is rather dry which may explain the lack of
pcpn generated by model guidance overnight. Again, only light
amnts of rain and high mountain snow is expected...and limited to
areas close the BC border. Once this waves moves into BC, rising
heights aloft and a surge of warm air works its way into Ern Wa on
southerly winds to produce a dry and warmer fcst under mostly sunny
skies. High temps will be around 10F above normal. bz

Monday Night through Wednesday: Beginning late Monday, early
Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown as a cold front begins to
press into the region. This is expected to bring rain showers for
most populated locations in the region. Snow levels will be above
4500 feet. A combination of the cooler air aloft, orographic lift,
and diurnal surface heating could produce an isolated thunderstorm
in Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle region with the best
chances being along the Canadian Border. The winds behind the
front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH and gusts
near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin. Temperatures are
expected to be near the season normals for this time of year. The
winds will begin draw down on Wednesday as the gradient loosens
across the region. Lingering mountains will drop some rain, snow
mix as the snow levels drop to around 2500 feet behind the cold
front. Any accumulations will be small and short lived. /JDC

Wednesday night through Sunday...A cold upper trough will start to
migrate east of the forecast area Wednesday night. Instability
showers will diminish overnight. If there is adequate clearing
overnight, Thursday morning temperatures will drop into the 20s
for the northern valleys. Lingering upslope showers will be
invigorated by steepening lapse rates during daytime heating
Thursday. The convective nature of showers will allow snow to
reach some valley floors but any accumulating snow will quickly
melt once showers move on. The trough axis will swing east into
Montana and temporary ridging will set up Thursday night into
Friday but models disagree on the amplitude and staying power of
the ridge. A weak frontal system will affect the forecast area
late in the workweek or early in the weekend but the most
significant weather feature will be a cold upper trough that
descends south from the Gulf of Alaska. The precise track of the
low pressure center will determine just how cold and unsettled it
will be for the weekend into the start of next week. The best bet
for precipitation will be across the northern mountains during
peak daytime heating as convective showers blossom in the unstable
conditions. Temperatures will continue to trend just on the cool
side of climatology. Again, any clearing overnight will make for a
chilly start in the mornings. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  64  42  55  33  51 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  39  66  41  53  32  49 /   0   0  10  70  40  40
Pullman        42  66  43  52  34  49 /   0   0  20  60  20  30
Lewiston       43  72  46  56  36  54 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Colville       41  67  41  56  32  53 /  10   0  10  70  20  40
Sandpoint      38  62  38  51  32  49 /  10   0  10  70  50  50
Kellogg        38  63  40  47  32  45 /   0   0  20  80  50  50
Moses Lake     40  69  44  59  33  58 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Wenatchee      44  69  45  56  38  56 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Omak           39  68  41  60  33  57 /  10   0  10  40  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada through Monday
producing mild weather for the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend will be showery with temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday: Another in a series of quick-moving warm
fronts will lift NE across Ern Wa overnight, then into BC Monday
morning. Though there`s fairly deep isentropic ascent over this
boundary, the column is rather dry which may explain the lack of
pcpn generated by model guidance overnight. Again, only light
amnts of rain and high mountain snow is expected...and limited to
areas close the BC border. Once this waves moves into BC, rising
heights aloft and a surge of warm air works its way into Ern Wa on
southerly winds to produce a dry and warmer fcst under mostly sunny
skies. High temps will be around 10F above normal. bz

Monday Night through Wednesday: Beginning late Monday, early
Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown as a cold front begins to
press into the region. This is expected to bring rain showers for
most populated locations in the region. Snow levels will be above
4500 feet. A combination of the cooler air aloft, orographic lift,
and diurnal surface heating could produce an isolated thunderstorm
in Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle region with the best
chances being along the Canadian Border. The winds behind the
front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH and gusts
near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin. Temperatures are
expected to be near the season normals for this time of year. The
winds will begin draw down on Wednesday as the gradient loosens
across the region. Lingering mountains will drop some rain, snow
mix as the snow levels drop to around 2500 feet behind the cold
front. Any accumulations will be small and short lived. /JDC

Wednesday night through Sunday...A cold upper trough will start to
migrate east of the forecast area Wednesday night. Instability
showers will diminish overnight. If there is adequate clearing
overnight, Thursday morning temperatures will drop into the 20s
for the northern valleys. Lingering upslope showers will be
invigorated by steepening lapse rates during daytime heating
Thursday. The convective nature of showers will allow snow to
reach some valley floors but any accumulating snow will quickly
melt once showers move on. The trough axis will swing east into
Montana and temporary ridging will set up Thursday night into
Friday but models disagree on the amplitude and staying power of
the ridge. A weak frontal system will affect the forecast area
late in the workweek or early in the weekend but the most
significant weather feature will be a cold upper trough that
descends south from the Gulf of Alaska. The precise track of the
low pressure center will determine just how cold and unsettled it
will be for the weekend into the start of next week. The best bet
for precipitation will be across the northern mountains during
peak daytime heating as convective showers blossom in the unstable
conditions. Temperatures will continue to trend just on the cool
side of climatology. Again, any clearing overnight will make for a
chilly start in the mornings. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  64  42  55  33  51 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  39  66  41  53  32  49 /   0   0  10  70  40  40
Pullman        42  66  43  52  34  49 /   0   0  20  60  20  30
Lewiston       43  72  46  56  36  54 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Colville       41  67  41  56  32  53 /  10   0  10  70  20  40
Sandpoint      38  62  38  51  32  49 /  10   0  10  70  50  50
Kellogg        38  63  40  47  32  45 /   0   0  20  80  50  50
Moses Lake     40  69  44  59  33  58 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Wenatchee      44  69  45  56  38  56 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Omak           39  68  41  60  33  57 /  10   0  10  40  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada through Monday
producing mild weather for the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend will be showery with temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday: Another in a series of quick-moving warm
fronts will lift NE across Ern Wa overnight, then into BC Monday
morning. Though there`s fairly deep isentropic ascent over this
boundary, the column is rather dry which may explain the lack of
pcpn generated by model guidance overnight. Again, only light
amnts of rain and high mountain snow is expected...and limited to
areas close the BC border. Once this waves moves into BC, rising
heights aloft and a surge of warm air works its way into Ern Wa on
southerly winds to produce a dry and warmer fcst under mostly sunny
skies. High temps will be around 10F above normal. bz

Monday Night through Wednesday: Beginning late Monday, early
Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown as a cold front begins to
press into the region. This is expected to bring rain showers for
most populated locations in the region. Snow levels will be above
4500 feet. A combination of the cooler air aloft, orographic lift,
and diurnal surface heating could produce an isolated thunderstorm
in Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle region with the best
chances being along the Canadian Border. The winds behind the
front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH and gusts
near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin. Temperatures are
expected to be near the season normals for this time of year. The
winds will begin draw down on Wednesday as the gradient loosens
across the region. Lingering mountains will drop some rain, snow
mix as the snow levels drop to around 2500 feet behind the cold
front. Any accumulations will be small and short lived. /JDC

Wednesday night through Sunday...A cold upper trough will start to
migrate east of the forecast area Wednesday night. Instability
showers will diminish overnight. If there is adequate clearing
overnight, Thursday morning temperatures will drop into the 20s
for the northern valleys. Lingering upslope showers will be
invigorated by steepening lapse rates during daytime heating
Thursday. The convective nature of showers will allow snow to
reach some valley floors but any accumulating snow will quickly
melt once showers move on. The trough axis will swing east into
Montana and temporary ridging will set up Thursday night into
Friday but models disagree on the amplitude and staying power of
the ridge. A weak frontal system will affect the forecast area
late in the workweek or early in the weekend but the most
significant weather feature will be a cold upper trough that
descends south from the Gulf of Alaska. The precise track of the
low pressure center will determine just how cold and unsettled it
will be for the weekend into the start of next week. The best bet
for precipitation will be across the northern mountains during
peak daytime heating as convective showers blossom in the unstable
conditions. Temperatures will continue to trend just on the cool
side of climatology. Again, any clearing overnight will make for a
chilly start in the mornings. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  64  42  55  33  51 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  39  66  41  53  32  49 /   0   0  10  70  40  40
Pullman        42  66  43  52  34  49 /   0   0  20  60  20  30
Lewiston       43  72  46  56  36  54 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Colville       41  67  41  56  32  53 /  10   0  10  70  20  40
Sandpoint      38  62  38  51  32  49 /  10   0  10  70  50  50
Kellogg        38  63  40  47  32  45 /   0   0  20  80  50  50
Moses Lake     40  69  44  59  33  58 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Wenatchee      44  69  45  56  38  56 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Omak           39  68  41  60  33  57 /  10   0  10  40  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada through Monday
producing mild weather for the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend will be showery with temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday: Another in a series of quick-moving warm
fronts will lift NE across Ern Wa overnight, then into BC Monday
morning. Though there`s fairly deep isentropic ascent over this
boundary, the column is rather dry which may explain the lack of
pcpn generated by model guidance overnight. Again, only light
amnts of rain and high mountain snow is expected...and limited to
areas close the BC border. Once this waves moves into BC, rising
heights aloft and a surge of warm air works its way into Ern Wa on
southerly winds to produce a dry and warmer fcst under mostly sunny
skies. High temps will be around 10F above normal. bz

Monday Night through Wednesday: Beginning late Monday, early
Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown as a cold front begins to
press into the region. This is expected to bring rain showers for
most populated locations in the region. Snow levels will be above
4500 feet. A combination of the cooler air aloft, orographic lift,
and diurnal surface heating could produce an isolated thunderstorm
in Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle region with the best
chances being along the Canadian Border. The winds behind the
front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH and gusts
near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin. Temperatures are
expected to be near the season normals for this time of year. The
winds will begin draw down on Wednesday as the gradient loosens
across the region. Lingering mountains will drop some rain, snow
mix as the snow levels drop to around 2500 feet behind the cold
front. Any accumulations will be small and short lived. /JDC

Wednesday night through Sunday...A cold upper trough will start to
migrate east of the forecast area Wednesday night. Instability
showers will diminish overnight. If there is adequate clearing
overnight, Thursday morning temperatures will drop into the 20s
for the northern valleys. Lingering upslope showers will be
invigorated by steepening lapse rates during daytime heating
Thursday. The convective nature of showers will allow snow to
reach some valley floors but any accumulating snow will quickly
melt once showers move on. The trough axis will swing east into
Montana and temporary ridging will set up Thursday night into
Friday but models disagree on the amplitude and staying power of
the ridge. A weak frontal system will affect the forecast area
late in the workweek or early in the weekend but the most
significant weather feature will be a cold upper trough that
descends south from the Gulf of Alaska. The precise track of the
low pressure center will determine just how cold and unsettled it
will be for the weekend into the start of next week. The best bet
for precipitation will be across the northern mountains during
peak daytime heating as convective showers blossom in the unstable
conditions. Temperatures will continue to trend just on the cool
side of climatology. Again, any clearing overnight will make for a
chilly start in the mornings. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  64  42  55  33  51 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  39  66  41  53  32  49 /   0   0  10  70  40  40
Pullman        42  66  43  52  34  49 /   0   0  20  60  20  30
Lewiston       43  72  46  56  36  54 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Colville       41  67  41  56  32  53 /  10   0  10  70  20  40
Sandpoint      38  62  38  51  32  49 /  10   0  10  70  50  50
Kellogg        38  63  40  47  32  45 /   0   0  20  80  50  50
Moses Lake     40  69  44  59  33  58 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Wenatchee      44  69  45  56  38  56 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Omak           39  68  41  60  33  57 /  10   0  10  40  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada through Monday
producing mild weather for the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend will be showery with temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday: Another in a series of quick-moving warm
fronts will lift NE across Ern Wa overnight, then into BC Monday
morning. Though there`s fairly deep isentropic ascent over this
boundary, the column is rather dry which may explain the lack of
pcpn generated by model guidance overnight. Again, only light
amnts of rain and high mountain snow is expected...and limited to
areas close the BC border. Once this waves moves into BC, rising
heights aloft and a surge of warm air works its way into Ern Wa on
southerly winds to produce a dry and warmer fcst under mostly sunny
skies. High temps will be around 10F above normal. bz

Monday Night through Wednesday: Beginning late Monday, early
Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown as a cold front begins to
press into the region. This is expected to bring rain showers for
most populated locations in the region. Snow levels will be above
4500 feet. A combination of the cooler air aloft, orographic lift,
and diurnal surface heating could produce an isolated thunderstorm
in Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle region with the best
chances being along the Canadian Border. The winds behind the
front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH and gusts
near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin. Temperatures are
expected to be near the season normals for this time of year. The
winds will begin draw down on Wednesday as the gradient loosens
across the region. Lingering mountains will drop some rain, snow
mix as the snow levels drop to around 2500 feet behind the cold
front. Any accumulations will be small and short lived. /JDC

Wednesday night through Sunday...A cold upper trough will start to
migrate east of the forecast area Wednesday night. Instability
showers will diminish overnight. If there is adequate clearing
overnight, Thursday morning temperatures will drop into the 20s
for the northern valleys. Lingering upslope showers will be
invigorated by steepening lapse rates during daytime heating
Thursday. The convective nature of showers will allow snow to
reach some valley floors but any accumulating snow will quickly
melt once showers move on. The trough axis will swing east into
Montana and temporary ridging will set up Thursday night into
Friday but models disagree on the amplitude and staying power of
the ridge. A weak frontal system will affect the forecast area
late in the workweek or early in the weekend but the most
significant weather feature will be a cold upper trough that
descends south from the Gulf of Alaska. The precise track of the
low pressure center will determine just how cold and unsettled it
will be for the weekend into the start of next week. The best bet
for precipitation will be across the northern mountains during
peak daytime heating as convective showers blossom in the unstable
conditions. Temperatures will continue to trend just on the cool
side of climatology. Again, any clearing overnight will make for a
chilly start in the mornings. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  64  42  55  33  51 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  39  66  41  53  32  49 /   0   0  10  70  40  40
Pullman        42  66  43  52  34  49 /   0   0  20  60  20  30
Lewiston       43  72  46  56  36  54 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Colville       41  67  41  56  32  53 /  10   0  10  70  20  40
Sandpoint      38  62  38  51  32  49 /  10   0  10  70  50  50
Kellogg        38  63  40  47  32  45 /   0   0  20  80  50  50
Moses Lake     40  69  44  59  33  58 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Wenatchee      44  69  45  56  38  56 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Omak           39  68  41  60  33  57 /  10   0  10  40  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300358
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL LIFT N A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT. BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR N. SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
FOR THAT AREA INTO MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE SE PART OF THE ARE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP DOWN CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING MON.

MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING MON NIGHT...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INLAND DURING THE EVENING. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE BELOW 500 MB TO JUSTIFY
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MON NIGHT. THIS USHERS IN A COOLER UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FOR TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. WITH H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO C
SURFACE HIGH TUE AND WED ARE LIKELY TO COME BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD INSTABILITY TUE...AT LEAST
BY PACNW STANDARDS...WITH GFS AND NAM CAPE VALUES MAXING OUT IN
TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH THE TOP OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER APPROACHING 20K FT
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS LIKELY WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...H5 TEMPS AGAIN
DOWN NEAR -32 DEG...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.

.LONG TERM...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS
EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU
AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY
JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING
TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. NEAR KAST SCT-BKN CIGS NEAR 2500 FT
KAST WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THAT AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE GONE MID MIDDAY MON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS IFR STRATUS ON THE
COAST WORKING ITS WAY UP TO KAST LATER TONIGHT. LAST GOOD
VISIBLE SAT IMAGE SHOWED STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS
PACIFIC CITY. SO IT SEEMS PROBABLE SOME IFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO
KAST LATER TONIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS
SHOULD PULL OFFSHORE A LITTLE BY MIDDAY MON.

ELSEWHERE...VFR LIKELY PERSISTS WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
AGAIN SEE SHALLOW FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH VALLEY AND IN MORE FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
/26

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TOMORROW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM IN THE NORTH WHERE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AROUND 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT ARRIVE
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON SO THE ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 2 PM FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WINDS SHOULD EASE BY 11 PM
ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MEANWHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 FT OVER NORTHERN WATER.
SPARSE OBSERVATIONS MAKE IT A BIT TOUGHER TO DISCERN IF SEAS HAVE
DROPPED OFF A BIT IN THE SOUTH...SO ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS...THROUGH 5 AM. THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN THE NORTH...BUT SUSPECT ENOUGH OF A RESPITE
IN SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH TO LET IT EXPIRE. HOWEVER...SEAS
AGAIN WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INTO TUESDAY. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT ON ALL
  COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 5 AM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 2 PM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300358
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL LIFT N A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT. BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR N. SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
FOR THAT AREA INTO MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE SE PART OF THE ARE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP DOWN CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING MON.

MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING MON NIGHT...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INLAND DURING THE EVENING. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE BELOW 500 MB TO JUSTIFY
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MON NIGHT. THIS USHERS IN A COOLER UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FOR TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. WITH H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO C
SURFACE HIGH TUE AND WED ARE LIKELY TO COME BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD INSTABILITY TUE...AT LEAST
BY PACNW STANDARDS...WITH GFS AND NAM CAPE VALUES MAXING OUT IN
TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH THE TOP OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER APPROACHING 20K FT
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS LIKELY WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...H5 TEMPS AGAIN
DOWN NEAR -32 DEG...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.

.LONG TERM...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS
EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU
AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY
JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING
TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. NEAR KAST SCT-BKN CIGS NEAR 2500 FT
KAST WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THAT AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE GONE MID MIDDAY MON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS IFR STRATUS ON THE
COAST WORKING ITS WAY UP TO KAST LATER TONIGHT. LAST GOOD
VISIBLE SAT IMAGE SHOWED STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS
PACIFIC CITY. SO IT SEEMS PROBABLE SOME IFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO
KAST LATER TONIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS
SHOULD PULL OFFSHORE A LITTLE BY MIDDAY MON.

ELSEWHERE...VFR LIKELY PERSISTS WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
AGAIN SEE SHALLOW FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH VALLEY AND IN MORE FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
/26

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TOMORROW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM IN THE NORTH WHERE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AROUND 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT ARRIVE
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON SO THE ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 2 PM FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WINDS SHOULD EASE BY 11 PM
ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MEANWHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 FT OVER NORTHERN WATER.
SPARSE OBSERVATIONS MAKE IT A BIT TOUGHER TO DISCERN IF SEAS HAVE
DROPPED OFF A BIT IN THE SOUTH...SO ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS...THROUGH 5 AM. THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN THE NORTH...BUT SUSPECT ENOUGH OF A RESPITE
IN SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH TO LET IT EXPIRE. HOWEVER...SEAS
AGAIN WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INTO TUESDAY. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT ON ALL
  COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 5 AM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 2 PM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300358
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL LIFT N A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT. BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR N. SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
FOR THAT AREA INTO MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE SE PART OF THE ARE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP DOWN CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING MON.

MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING MON NIGHT...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INLAND DURING THE EVENING. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE BELOW 500 MB TO JUSTIFY
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MON NIGHT. THIS USHERS IN A COOLER UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FOR TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. WITH H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO C
SURFACE HIGH TUE AND WED ARE LIKELY TO COME BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD INSTABILITY TUE...AT LEAST
BY PACNW STANDARDS...WITH GFS AND NAM CAPE VALUES MAXING OUT IN
TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH THE TOP OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER APPROACHING 20K FT
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS LIKELY WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...H5 TEMPS AGAIN
DOWN NEAR -32 DEG...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.

.LONG TERM...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS
EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU
AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY
JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING
TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. NEAR KAST SCT-BKN CIGS NEAR 2500 FT
KAST WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THAT AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE GONE MID MIDDAY MON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS IFR STRATUS ON THE
COAST WORKING ITS WAY UP TO KAST LATER TONIGHT. LAST GOOD
VISIBLE SAT IMAGE SHOWED STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS
PACIFIC CITY. SO IT SEEMS PROBABLE SOME IFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO
KAST LATER TONIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS
SHOULD PULL OFFSHORE A LITTLE BY MIDDAY MON.

ELSEWHERE...VFR LIKELY PERSISTS WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
AGAIN SEE SHALLOW FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH VALLEY AND IN MORE FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
/26

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TOMORROW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM IN THE NORTH WHERE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AROUND 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT ARRIVE
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON SO THE ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 2 PM FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WINDS SHOULD EASE BY 11 PM
ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MEANWHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 FT OVER NORTHERN WATER.
SPARSE OBSERVATIONS MAKE IT A BIT TOUGHER TO DISCERN IF SEAS HAVE
DROPPED OFF A BIT IN THE SOUTH...SO ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS...THROUGH 5 AM. THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN THE NORTH...BUT SUSPECT ENOUGH OF A RESPITE
IN SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH TO LET IT EXPIRE. HOWEVER...SEAS
AGAIN WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INTO TUESDAY. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT ON ALL
  COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 5 AM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 2 PM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 300354
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AT TIMES TO NORTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING COOL SHOWERY
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...THEN RAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AT TIMES TO
THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER 24. TOMORROW WILL BE ONE LAST DAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING RAIN
OVER THE WHOLE AREA.

SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS MEANS
THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE PASSES AND ALSO IN A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SNOW ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

SHOWERS TAPER WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE WARMING IS LIKELY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON THURSDAY...THE
ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVING FRIDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK
DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THE GFS DOES KEEP SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT QPF AROUND. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE PULLED IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE RIDGE
SOLUTION.

A FRONT BRINGS RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY...THEN A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW AT
AROUND 3000 FEET BUT THE SHOWERY PATTERN IS PROBABLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY STABLE AND MOIST
BELOW 10000 FT.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCT030-040 BKN050-070 OVC090-120. THERE ARE AREAS -- MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR -- OF OVC023-030 WITH -RA. ON
THE WHOLE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 5-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL WEAKEN EARLY MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WESTERLY GALES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
AREA FRIDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CENTRAL STRAIT AND
       EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 300354
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AT TIMES TO NORTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING COOL SHOWERY
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...THEN RAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AT TIMES TO
THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER 24. TOMORROW WILL BE ONE LAST DAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING RAIN
OVER THE WHOLE AREA.

SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS MEANS
THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE PASSES AND ALSO IN A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SNOW ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

SHOWERS TAPER WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE WARMING IS LIKELY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON THURSDAY...THE
ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVING FRIDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK
DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THE GFS DOES KEEP SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT QPF AROUND. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE PULLED IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE RIDGE
SOLUTION.

A FRONT BRINGS RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY...THEN A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW AT
AROUND 3000 FEET BUT THE SHOWERY PATTERN IS PROBABLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY STABLE AND MOIST
BELOW 10000 FT.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCT030-040 BKN050-070 OVC090-120. THERE ARE AREAS -- MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR -- OF OVC023-030 WITH -RA. ON
THE WHOLE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 5-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL WEAKEN EARLY MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WESTERLY GALES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
AREA FRIDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CENTRAL STRAIT AND
       EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 300354
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AT TIMES TO NORTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING COOL SHOWERY
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...THEN RAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AT TIMES TO
THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER 24. TOMORROW WILL BE ONE LAST DAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING RAIN
OVER THE WHOLE AREA.

SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS MEANS
THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE PASSES AND ALSO IN A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SNOW ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

SHOWERS TAPER WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE WARMING IS LIKELY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON THURSDAY...THE
ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVING FRIDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK
DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THE GFS DOES KEEP SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT QPF AROUND. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE PULLED IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE RIDGE
SOLUTION.

A FRONT BRINGS RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY...THEN A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW AT
AROUND 3000 FEET BUT THE SHOWERY PATTERN IS PROBABLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY STABLE AND MOIST
BELOW 10000 FT.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCT030-040 BKN050-070 OVC090-120. THERE ARE AREAS -- MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR -- OF OVC023-030 WITH -RA. ON
THE WHOLE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 5-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL WEAKEN EARLY MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WESTERLY GALES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
AREA FRIDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CENTRAL STRAIT AND
       EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 300354
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AT TIMES TO NORTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING COOL SHOWERY
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...THEN RAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AT TIMES TO
THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER 24. TOMORROW WILL BE ONE LAST DAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING RAIN
OVER THE WHOLE AREA.

SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS MEANS
THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE PASSES AND ALSO IN A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SNOW ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

SHOWERS TAPER WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE WARMING IS LIKELY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON THURSDAY...THE
ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVING FRIDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK
DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THE GFS DOES KEEP SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT QPF AROUND. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE PULLED IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE RIDGE
SOLUTION.

A FRONT BRINGS RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY...THEN A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW AT
AROUND 3000 FEET BUT THE SHOWERY PATTERN IS PROBABLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY STABLE AND MOIST
BELOW 10000 FT.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCT030-040 BKN050-070 OVC090-120. THERE ARE AREAS -- MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR -- OF OVC023-030 WITH -RA. ON
THE WHOLE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 5-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL WEAKEN EARLY MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WESTERLY GALES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
AREA FRIDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CENTRAL STRAIT AND
       EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 300354
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AT TIMES TO NORTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING COOL SHOWERY
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...THEN RAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AT TIMES TO
THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER 24. TOMORROW WILL BE ONE LAST DAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING RAIN
OVER THE WHOLE AREA.

SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS MEANS
THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE PASSES AND ALSO IN A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SNOW ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

SHOWERS TAPER WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE WARMING IS LIKELY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON THURSDAY...THE
ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVING FRIDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK
DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THE GFS DOES KEEP SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT QPF AROUND. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE PULLED IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE RIDGE
SOLUTION.

A FRONT BRINGS RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY...THEN A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW AT
AROUND 3000 FEET BUT THE SHOWERY PATTERN IS PROBABLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY STABLE AND MOIST
BELOW 10000 FT.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCT030-040 BKN050-070 OVC090-120. THERE ARE AREAS -- MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR -- OF OVC023-030 WITH -RA. ON
THE WHOLE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 5-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL WEAKEN EARLY MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WESTERLY GALES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
AREA FRIDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CENTRAL STRAIT AND
       EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 300354
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AT TIMES TO NORTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING COOL SHOWERY
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...THEN RAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN AT TIMES TO
THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER 24. TOMORROW WILL BE ONE LAST DAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING RAIN
OVER THE WHOLE AREA.

SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS MEANS
THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE PASSES AND ALSO IN A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SNOW ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

SHOWERS TAPER WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE WARMING IS LIKELY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON THURSDAY...THE
ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVING FRIDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK
DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THE GFS DOES KEEP SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT QPF AROUND. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE PULLED IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE RIDGE
SOLUTION.

A FRONT BRINGS RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY...THEN A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW AT
AROUND 3000 FEET BUT THE SHOWERY PATTERN IS PROBABLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY STABLE AND MOIST
BELOW 10000 FT.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCT030-040 BKN050-070 OVC090-120. THERE ARE AREAS -- MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR -- OF OVC023-030 WITH -RA. ON
THE WHOLE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 5-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL WEAKEN EARLY MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WESTERLY GALES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
AREA FRIDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CENTRAL STRAIT AND
       EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








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