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000
FXUS66 KOTX 050947
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday: Rainy and cool conditions today will
give way to isolated showers and somewhat milder conditions
Sunday. From this morning to evening low pressure centered near
the WA/OR/ID border tracks through ID and into western MT. The
trowal and moisture wrapped around the low will help bring rain
across the eastern third of WA and ID through the early afternoon,
before the focus for precipitation starts to shift toward far
northeast WA and the ID Panhandle this evening. More widely
scattered to isolated showers will be a threat toward the western
Columbia Basin and Cascades today. However a second shortwave will
be dropping in from the northwest and approaching the Cascades
late tonight into Sunday morning, bringing a slightly better
chance of showers there. That shortwave then pivots southeast
across the remainder of WA and north ID during the day Sunday.
This relatively quick moving feature will have some moisture to
work with, but it doesn`t appear to be very deep. Instability
exists but it is limited. In tandem with some moisture still
wrapping around the backside of the exiting low, look for a threat
of isolated showers over most locations. As for thunderstorm
chances over the next 36 hours, there will be some risk but it
will be limited. The best chances will be near the Cascades and
over far north and eastern WA and ID today, with the threat waning
this evening after sunset, before being renewed across far
northeast WA and the northern Panhandle Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will be held back today across the eastern third of
WA and north ID under the rain and clouds, with many areas not
getting out of the 50s. Milder readings are expected toward the
western Columbia Basin and Cascades which will have more sunshine
and less precipitation. By Sunday temperatures moderate across the
region as the cold low exits. However values will still remain
some 10 degrees below normal. /J. Cote`

Sunday night through Wednesday night...Although this period won`t
be as wet or cool as the beginning of the forecast it might not be
as dry as it previously appeared either. The prevailing synoptic
pattern for this period will feature a relatively flat ridge off
the coast with west to northwest upper level flow over the Inland
Northwest. This places the upper level jet somewhere near the
Washington/BC border through much of this period which results in
several weak upper level disturbances tracking through the
northern portions of the forecast area. Beginning on Sunday night,
we should see a brief drying trend develop after the deep upper
level low currently over the region shifts into Saskatchewan.
There could still be some light showers during the evening mainly
over the north Idaho Panhandle but little else. Then by Monday
shortwave number one swings into the region from the northwest.
The ECMWF and Canadian have consistently taken this feature into
SE Washington by midday, whereas the latest GFS leaves it near the
NE corner of Washington. The 18z GFS showed this farther south
track and will be the favored solution. Moisture with this system
won`t be terribly deep, nor will the potential instability,
however given the orographic ascent expected to develop,
especially over extreme NE Washington and the Idaho Panhandle, we
will bring the chances of rain farther south than was previously
anticipated. Most of the rain chances will occur north of I-90. In
the lee of the Cascades this system won`t do a whole lot as the
mean mid- level flow will favor moderate downslope regime. The
next shortwave is expected to cross southern BC on Tuesday. Model
agreement with this feature is quite good, unlike yesterday where
the GFS had the feature much farther north, which left the
forecast area largely bereft of precipitation. Now most of the
model solutions paint some light to locally moderate precipitation
extending from the north Cascades to the Idaho Panhandle north of
I-90. The heavier precipitation amounts are legitimate since this
system will be briefly accompanied by a narrow precipitable water
plume nearing an inch. Precipitation amounts could near a quarter
inch across extreme NE Washington and the northern tip of the ID
Panhandle with similar amounts possible near the Cascade Crest.
Meanwhile very little if any rain will fall in the lee of the
Cascades or the Okanogan Valley due to continued downslope flow
off the Cascades. This feature should push east of the area on
Tuesday evening. Wednesday will feature the last in the series of
shortwave troughs. This one will be fast moving and fairly weak.
Model cross sections show fairly limited moisture with most of it
located above 12k feet so other than passing clouds we don`t
expect much precipitation at this point. Temperatures are still
expected to warm through this period, however the trend will be
slower than previously expected. Highs on Sunday will still be
cooler than normal for this time of year with readings in the mid
60s to mid 70s. By Wednesday temperatures should climb about 10
degrees resulting in highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, which is
right around normal for this time of year. fx

Thursday through Saturday: Models are in very good agreement for
this period. A dry zonal pattern is expected to dominate this
period with some weak ridging build into the region. This will
keep any chance of rain for the region close to non existent.
Temperatures will continue to creep warmer with highs expected in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will range from mid 40s
to mid 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers will drift north into extreme southeast WA and
central panhandle of Idaho tonight along with isolated
thunderstorms possible but confidence is low that any TS will
affect a particular TAF site. The wettest interval will be
overnight tonight and into tomorrow as a wet frontal zone stalls
over Eastern Washington and North Idaho from about 09Z on bringing
MVFR conditions to TAF sites except KEAT and KMWH. KMWH will be on
the western edge of the precipitation shield and may see very
little rain. As the low moves east Sat afternoon, any breaks in
cloud cover may allow convection to develop, with isolated
thunderstorms possible across the forecast area. Cascade gap winds
will increase after 18Z Sat with gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible at
KEAT. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  44  64  44  67  48 / 100  50  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  43  63  43  65  45 /  90  70  20  10  20  10
Pullman        53  41  62  41  66  45 /  80  60  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  48  69  47  74  51 /  70  60  10  10  10  10
Colville       59  44  67  43  70  46 /  90  50  20  20  20  10
Sandpoint      55  43  62  40  65  43 / 100  70  20  20  20  10
Kellogg        53  42  61  41  63  41 /  90  80  30  20  20  10
Moses Lake     72  48  73  47  75  50 /  70  20  20   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  53  73  52  76  53 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Omak           73  47  74  46  76  50 /  20  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050947
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday: Rainy and cool conditions today will
give way to isolated showers and somewhat milder conditions
Sunday. From this morning to evening low pressure centered near
the WA/OR/ID border tracks through ID and into western MT. The
trowal and moisture wrapped around the low will help bring rain
across the eastern third of WA and ID through the early afternoon,
before the focus for precipitation starts to shift toward far
northeast WA and the ID Panhandle this evening. More widely
scattered to isolated showers will be a threat toward the western
Columbia Basin and Cascades today. However a second shortwave will
be dropping in from the northwest and approaching the Cascades
late tonight into Sunday morning, bringing a slightly better
chance of showers there. That shortwave then pivots southeast
across the remainder of WA and north ID during the day Sunday.
This relatively quick moving feature will have some moisture to
work with, but it doesn`t appear to be very deep. Instability
exists but it is limited. In tandem with some moisture still
wrapping around the backside of the exiting low, look for a threat
of isolated showers over most locations. As for thunderstorm
chances over the next 36 hours, there will be some risk but it
will be limited. The best chances will be near the Cascades and
over far north and eastern WA and ID today, with the threat waning
this evening after sunset, before being renewed across far
northeast WA and the northern Panhandle Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will be held back today across the eastern third of
WA and north ID under the rain and clouds, with many areas not
getting out of the 50s. Milder readings are expected toward the
western Columbia Basin and Cascades which will have more sunshine
and less precipitation. By Sunday temperatures moderate across the
region as the cold low exits. However values will still remain
some 10 degrees below normal. /J. Cote`

Sunday night through Wednesday night...Although this period won`t
be as wet or cool as the beginning of the forecast it might not be
as dry as it previously appeared either. The prevailing synoptic
pattern for this period will feature a relatively flat ridge off
the coast with west to northwest upper level flow over the Inland
Northwest. This places the upper level jet somewhere near the
Washington/BC border through much of this period which results in
several weak upper level disturbances tracking through the
northern portions of the forecast area. Beginning on Sunday night,
we should see a brief drying trend develop after the deep upper
level low currently over the region shifts into Saskatchewan.
There could still be some light showers during the evening mainly
over the north Idaho Panhandle but little else. Then by Monday
shortwave number one swings into the region from the northwest.
The ECMWF and Canadian have consistently taken this feature into
SE Washington by midday, whereas the latest GFS leaves it near the
NE corner of Washington. The 18z GFS showed this farther south
track and will be the favored solution. Moisture with this system
won`t be terribly deep, nor will the potential instability,
however given the orographic ascent expected to develop,
especially over extreme NE Washington and the Idaho Panhandle, we
will bring the chances of rain farther south than was previously
anticipated. Most of the rain chances will occur north of I-90. In
the lee of the Cascades this system won`t do a whole lot as the
mean mid- level flow will favor moderate downslope regime. The
next shortwave is expected to cross southern BC on Tuesday. Model
agreement with this feature is quite good, unlike yesterday where
the GFS had the feature much farther north, which left the
forecast area largely bereft of precipitation. Now most of the
model solutions paint some light to locally moderate precipitation
extending from the north Cascades to the Idaho Panhandle north of
I-90. The heavier precipitation amounts are legitimate since this
system will be briefly accompanied by a narrow precipitable water
plume nearing an inch. Precipitation amounts could near a quarter
inch across extreme NE Washington and the northern tip of the ID
Panhandle with similar amounts possible near the Cascade Crest.
Meanwhile very little if any rain will fall in the lee of the
Cascades or the Okanogan Valley due to continued downslope flow
off the Cascades. This feature should push east of the area on
Tuesday evening. Wednesday will feature the last in the series of
shortwave troughs. This one will be fast moving and fairly weak.
Model cross sections show fairly limited moisture with most of it
located above 12k feet so other than passing clouds we don`t
expect much precipitation at this point. Temperatures are still
expected to warm through this period, however the trend will be
slower than previously expected. Highs on Sunday will still be
cooler than normal for this time of year with readings in the mid
60s to mid 70s. By Wednesday temperatures should climb about 10
degrees resulting in highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, which is
right around normal for this time of year. fx

Thursday through Saturday: Models are in very good agreement for
this period. A dry zonal pattern is expected to dominate this
period with some weak ridging build into the region. This will
keep any chance of rain for the region close to non existent.
Temperatures will continue to creep warmer with highs expected in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will range from mid 40s
to mid 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers will drift north into extreme southeast WA and
central panhandle of Idaho tonight along with isolated
thunderstorms possible but confidence is low that any TS will
affect a particular TAF site. The wettest interval will be
overnight tonight and into tomorrow as a wet frontal zone stalls
over Eastern Washington and North Idaho from about 09Z on bringing
MVFR conditions to TAF sites except KEAT and KMWH. KMWH will be on
the western edge of the precipitation shield and may see very
little rain. As the low moves east Sat afternoon, any breaks in
cloud cover may allow convection to develop, with isolated
thunderstorms possible across the forecast area. Cascade gap winds
will increase after 18Z Sat with gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible at
KEAT. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  44  64  44  67  48 / 100  50  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  43  63  43  65  45 /  90  70  20  10  20  10
Pullman        53  41  62  41  66  45 /  80  60  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  48  69  47  74  51 /  70  60  10  10  10  10
Colville       59  44  67  43  70  46 /  90  50  20  20  20  10
Sandpoint      55  43  62  40  65  43 / 100  70  20  20  20  10
Kellogg        53  42  61  41  63  41 /  90  80  30  20  20  10
Moses Lake     72  48  73  47  75  50 /  70  20  20   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  53  73  52  76  53 /  20  10  20  10   0   0
Omak           73  47  74  46  76  50 /  20  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 050935
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 AM PDT SAT SEP  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES
TODAY WITH SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES GRADUALLY ENDING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
AREAS NORTH OF THE OREGON/WASHINGTON BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA
AND EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
NW OREGON GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR LOW
LANDS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS PEAKING
IN THE MID 60S FOR THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD REDUCE RADIATION COOLING AND THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE COASTAL
VALLEYS AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT BE
AS COOL AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE ALASKAN COAST TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH IS PAIRED WITH A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW
COAST SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY DOWN TO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DROP MOST OF ITS
RAIN NEAR THE COAST...WITH HARDLY ANY RAIN EXPECTED EAST OF THE COAST
RANGE.

 PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE OVER AN INCH WITH THIS FRONT AND A 90KT
500MB JET SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE FRONT WILL RELEASE MOST
OF ITS MOISTURE OFFSHORE...AND WEAKEN QUITE A BIT BEFORE IT REACHES
THE COAST...AND ONLY EXPECT LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.10 INCH FOR THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE. THE FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ONLY EXPECT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
FOR THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS NORTH OF SALEM.

CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS FROM REACHING MUCH ABOVE 70 DEGREES
NORTH OF SALEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF SALEM
COULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 75.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN A DRY LABOR DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NORTH OF
SALEM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT APPROACHES NW WASHINGTON. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THINK LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST
NORTH OF THE OR/WA BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF OREGON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S...AND COASTAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OREGON HAS LEFT MOST
LOWLAND LOCATIONS CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS HUGGING
THE CASCADES. PATCHY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY MAKE IFR
CONDITIONS HARDER TO COME BY THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY. IN
ADDITION...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS OVER THE CASCADES THAT
ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 4KFT AND 8KFT ARE TRYING TO BACK BUILD INTO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WHICH MAY KEEP MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS
VFR THIS MORNING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
IS LOW THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...BUT SUSPECT MORE LOCATIONS MAY
REMAIN VFR THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. KEUG AND KHIO WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT AT KAST WHERE AN
INCOMING FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO AT
LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AS CIGS BETWEEN
4KFT AND 8KFT BUILD WESTWARD OFF THE CASCADES AND OVER THE TERMINAL
EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE CONDITIONS
COULD DETERIORATE INTO IFR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY BRING A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 20 KT. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BRINGING A RETURN TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY FLIRT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THE STRONGER AND MORE SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level low is dropping south into Oregon this evening
with areas of showers and even a few thunderstorms being pushed
north into southeast WA and the central panhandle of ID.
Precipitation will increase over the region tonight as the best
area of lift moves over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Models are still depicting a bulls eye of precip over extreme
eastern WA overnight with a sharp dropoff in QPF from Ritzville
west. The wildfires in north ID will likely get a good wetting
rain out of this system along with the Kiniksu Complex in Pend
Oreille County and possibly the Carpenter Rd Complex in southern
Stevens County but the big fires in Okanogan and Chelan Counties
will get little if any precipitation. Only minor changes made to
the current forecast package to adjust PoPs and min temps to
account for recent trends in observations. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers will drift north into extreme southeast WA and
central panhandle of Idaho tonight along with isolated
thunderstorms possible but confidence is low that any TS will
affect a particular TAF site. The wettest interval will be
overnight tonight and into tomorrow as a wet frontal zone stalls
over Eastern Washington and North Idaho from about 09Z on bringing
MVFR conditions to TAF sites except KEAT and KMWH. KMWH will be on
the western edge of the precipitation shield and may see very
little rain. As the low moves east Sat afternoon, any breaks in
cloud cover may allow convection to develop, with isolated
thunderstorms possible across the forecast area. Cascade gap winds
will increase after 18Z Sat with gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible at
KEAT. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  53  43  66  45  68 /  80 100  50  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  53  43  65  44  67 /  80  90  70  10  10  10
Pullman        44  53  41  64  43  66 /  90  70  60  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  60  48  72  50  72 /  80  70  60  10  10  10
Colville       49  57  44  67  41  70 /  40  90  50  20  20  10
Sandpoint      47  54  45  64  40  66 /  60 100  60  20  20  20
Kellogg        46  52  43  63  40  63 /  70  80  70  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  71  49  75  48  76 /  30  50  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      53  72  52  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           52  73  46  75  45  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level low is dropping south into Oregon this evening
with areas of showers and even a few thunderstorms being pushed
north into southeast WA and the central panhandle of ID.
Precipitation will increase over the region tonight as the best
area of lift moves over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Models are still depicting a bulls eye of precip over extreme
eastern WA overnight with a sharp dropoff in QPF from Ritzville
west. The wildfires in north ID will likely get a good wetting
rain out of this system along with the Kiniksu Complex in Pend
Oreille County and possibly the Carpenter Rd Complex in southern
Stevens County but the big fires in Okanogan and Chelan Counties
will get little if any precipitation. Only minor changes made to
the current forecast package to adjust PoPs and min temps to
account for recent trends in observations. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers will drift north into extreme southeast WA and
central panhandle of Idaho tonight along with isolated
thunderstorms possible but confidence is low that any TS will
affect a particular TAF site. The wettest interval will be
overnight tonight and into tomorrow as a wet frontal zone stalls
over Eastern Washington and North Idaho from about 09Z on bringing
MVFR conditions to TAF sites except KEAT and KMWH. KMWH will be on
the western edge of the precipitation shield and may see very
little rain. As the low moves east Sat afternoon, any breaks in
cloud cover may allow convection to develop, with isolated
thunderstorms possible across the forecast area. Cascade gap winds
will increase after 18Z Sat with gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible at
KEAT. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  53  43  66  45  68 /  80 100  50  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  53  43  65  44  67 /  80  90  70  10  10  10
Pullman        44  53  41  64  43  66 /  90  70  60  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  60  48  72  50  72 /  80  70  60  10  10  10
Colville       49  57  44  67  41  70 /  40  90  50  20  20  10
Sandpoint      47  54  45  64  40  66 /  60 100  60  20  20  20
Kellogg        46  52  43  63  40  63 /  70  80  70  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  71  49  75  48  76 /  30  50  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      53  72  52  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           52  73  46  75  45  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level low is dropping south into Oregon this evening
with areas of showers and even a few thunderstorms being pushed
north into southeast WA and the central panhandle of ID.
Precipitation will increase over the region tonight as the best
area of lift moves over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Models are still depicting a bulls eye of precip over extreme
eastern WA overnight with a sharp dropoff in QPF from Ritzville
west. The wildfires in north ID will likely get a good wetting
rain out of this system along with the Kiniksu Complex in Pend
Oreille County and possibly the Carpenter Rd Complex in southern
Stevens County but the big fires in Okanogan and Chelan Counties
will get little if any precipitation. Only minor changes made to
the current forecast package to adjust PoPs and min temps to
account for recent trends in observations. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers will drift north into extreme southeast WA and
central panhandle of Idaho tonight along with isolated
thunderstorms possible but confidence is low that any TS will
affect a particular TAF site. The wettest interval will be
overnight tonight and into tomorrow as a wet frontal zone stalls
over Eastern Washington and North Idaho from about 09Z on bringing
MVFR conditions to TAF sites except KEAT and KMWH. KMWH will be on
the western edge of the precipitation shield and may see very
little rain. As the low moves east Sat afternoon, any breaks in
cloud cover may allow convection to develop, with isolated
thunderstorms possible across the forecast area. Cascade gap winds
will increase after 18Z Sat with gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible at
KEAT. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  53  43  66  45  68 /  80 100  50  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  53  43  65  44  67 /  80  90  70  10  10  10
Pullman        44  53  41  64  43  66 /  90  70  60  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  60  48  72  50  72 /  80  70  60  10  10  10
Colville       49  57  44  67  41  70 /  40  90  50  20  20  10
Sandpoint      47  54  45  64  40  66 /  60 100  60  20  20  20
Kellogg        46  52  43  63  40  63 /  70  80  70  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  71  49  75  48  76 /  30  50  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      53  72  52  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           52  73  46  75  45  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level low is dropping south into Oregon this evening
with areas of showers and even a few thunderstorms being pushed
north into southeast WA and the central panhandle of ID.
Precipitation will increase over the region tonight as the best
area of lift moves over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Models are still depicting a bulls eye of precip over extreme
eastern WA overnight with a sharp dropoff in QPF from Ritzville
west. The wildfires in north ID will likely get a good wetting
rain out of this system along with the Kiniksu Complex in Pend
Oreille County and possibly the Carpenter Rd Complex in southern
Stevens County but the big fires in Okanogan and Chelan Counties
will get little if any precipitation. Only minor changes made to
the current forecast package to adjust PoPs and min temps to
account for recent trends in observations. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers will drift north into extreme southeast WA and
central panhandle of Idaho tonight along with isolated
thunderstorms possible but confidence is low that any TS will
affect a particular TAF site. The wettest interval will be
overnight tonight and into tomorrow as a wet frontal zone stalls
over Eastern Washington and North Idaho from about 09Z on bringing
MVFR conditions to TAF sites except KEAT and KMWH. KMWH will be on
the western edge of the precipitation shield and may see very
little rain. As the low moves east Sat afternoon, any breaks in
cloud cover may allow convection to develop, with isolated
thunderstorms possible across the forecast area. Cascade gap winds
will increase after 18Z Sat with gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible at
KEAT. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  53  43  66  45  68 /  80 100  50  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  53  43  65  44  67 /  80  90  70  10  10  10
Pullman        44  53  41  64  43  66 /  90  70  60  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  60  48  72  50  72 /  80  70  60  10  10  10
Colville       49  57  44  67  41  70 /  40  90  50  20  20  10
Sandpoint      47  54  45  64  40  66 /  60 100  60  20  20  20
Kellogg        46  52  43  63  40  63 /  70  80  70  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  71  49  75  48  76 /  30  50  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      53  72  52  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           52  73  46  75  45  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 050440
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OREGON WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
LABOR DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE LAST COUPLE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND NORTHEASTERN GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTY DISSIPATING AT 04Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL OREGON DRIFTING EASTWARD. OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OREGON
MOVING EAST TONIGHT AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES OVER
THE AREA COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...SNOQUALMIE
VALLEY...LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY BY SUNRISE. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
THE COOL AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME CHILLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR LOWS SATURDAY MORNING...IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE ON SATURDAY EVEN
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON WITH
THE WARMER LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DISSIPATING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS A BIT OF A SPLIT TO
IT SO THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT GETS CLOSER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. EVEN WITH THE WEAKENING RAIN STARTING ON THE NORTH COAST
BY 06Z SUNDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE AREAS WEST OF THE SOUND BY 12Z.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

FRONT FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INLAND SUNDAY MORNING BUT NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE POPS SUNDAY MORNING. FRONT DISSIPATED
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AT THIS POINT WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRY LABOR DAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS REBOUND A LITTLE
GETTING UP INTO THE MID 570 DMS BY 00Z TUESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. FELTON

.LONG TERM...00Z MODELS CONTINUING WITH THE IDEA OF THE NEXT
FRONT MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM SEATTLE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS CREEP UP AND SYSTEMS GET WEAKER AND PASS NORTH
OF WRN WA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
B.C. FRIDAY AND THEN A STRONG RIDGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE OF
RATHER WARM DAYS. THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO B.C.
ON SAT AND THEN DIGGING SE THRU ALBERTA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING HEIGHTS
LOWER AND COOLER AIR OVER WRN WA. THE TIMING OF TROPICAL MOISTURE KICKING
INTO THE WESTERLIES OUT AROUND 160W PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR THE DIFFERENCE
BUT MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A TREND TO WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS A GOOD
BET AND THE 18Z GFS ALSO LOOKS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN NOW
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO NWLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE AIR
MASS IS BECOMING MOIST AND UNSTABLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
AREAS OF MVFR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSEA...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO LIGHT SLY AROUND OR
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. SLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND
STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY EVENING. A CHANCE OF EARLY SAT MORNING FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR MOST LIKELY. JSMITH/13

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. GRADIENTS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND THEN SLY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT DIP ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRAIT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE
SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW PASSES THROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. JSMITH/13

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND      CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 050440
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OREGON WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
LABOR DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE LAST COUPLE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND NORTHEASTERN GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTY DISSIPATING AT 04Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL OREGON DRIFTING EASTWARD. OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OREGON
MOVING EAST TONIGHT AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES OVER
THE AREA COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...SNOQUALMIE
VALLEY...LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY BY SUNRISE. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
THE COOL AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME CHILLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR LOWS SATURDAY MORNING...IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE ON SATURDAY EVEN
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON WITH
THE WARMER LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DISSIPATING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS A BIT OF A SPLIT TO
IT SO THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT GETS CLOSER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. EVEN WITH THE WEAKENING RAIN STARTING ON THE NORTH COAST
BY 06Z SUNDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE AREAS WEST OF THE SOUND BY 12Z.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

FRONT FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INLAND SUNDAY MORNING BUT NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE POPS SUNDAY MORNING. FRONT DISSIPATED
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AT THIS POINT WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRY LABOR DAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS REBOUND A LITTLE
GETTING UP INTO THE MID 570 DMS BY 00Z TUESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. FELTON

.LONG TERM...00Z MODELS CONTINUING WITH THE IDEA OF THE NEXT
FRONT MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM SEATTLE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS CREEP UP AND SYSTEMS GET WEAKER AND PASS NORTH
OF WRN WA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
B.C. FRIDAY AND THEN A STRONG RIDGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE OF
RATHER WARM DAYS. THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO B.C.
ON SAT AND THEN DIGGING SE THRU ALBERTA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING HEIGHTS
LOWER AND COOLER AIR OVER WRN WA. THE TIMING OF TROPICAL MOISTURE KICKING
INTO THE WESTERLIES OUT AROUND 160W PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR THE DIFFERENCE
BUT MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A TREND TO WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS A GOOD
BET AND THE 18Z GFS ALSO LOOKS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN NOW
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON THIS EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO NWLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE AIR
MASS IS BECOMING MOIST AND UNSTABLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
AREAS OF MVFR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSEA...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO LIGHT SLY AROUND OR
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. SLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND
STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY EVENING. A CHANCE OF EARLY SAT MORNING FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR MOST LIKELY. JSMITH/13

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. GRADIENTS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND THEN SLY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT DIP ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRAIT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE
SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW PASSES THROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. JSMITH/13

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND      CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT FRI SEP  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS AN COOL UPPER TROUGH LINGERED OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WAS OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT SOME MADE IT INTO THE VALLEY.
RADAR INDICATED HAIL WITH A STORM OVER YAMHILL COUNTY BUT NO
VERIFICATION SO FAR. IT DID EVENTUALLY REACH THE MCMINNVILLE AREA AND
DUMPED ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT KMMV.  NO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.  IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOLLOWED BY A DRY MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING AROUND. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SITTING WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS EVENING WITH BUOY 50 SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING
A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS. BOWEN/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT FRI SEP  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS AN COOL UPPER TROUGH LINGERED OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WAS OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT SOME MADE IT INTO THE VALLEY.
RADAR INDICATED HAIL WITH A STORM OVER YAMHILL COUNTY BUT NO
VERIFICATION SO FAR. IT DID EVENTUALLY REACH THE MCMINNVILLE AREA AND
DUMPED ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT KMMV.  NO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.  IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOLLOWED BY A DRY MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING AROUND. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SITTING WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS EVENING WITH BUOY 50 SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING
A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS. BOWEN/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT FRI SEP  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS AN COOL UPPER TROUGH LINGERED OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WAS OVER THE COAST RANGE BUT SOME MADE IT INTO THE VALLEY.
RADAR INDICATED HAIL WITH A STORM OVER YAMHILL COUNTY BUT NO
VERIFICATION SO FAR. IT DID EVENTUALLY REACH THE MCMINNVILLE AREA AND
DUMPED ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT KMMV.  NO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.  IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOLLOWED BY A DRY MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING AROUND. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SITTING WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS EVENING WITH BUOY 50 SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING
A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS. BOWEN/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050357
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
857 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level low is dropping south into Oregon this evening
with areas of showers and even a few thunderstorms being pushed
north into southeast WA and the central panhandle of ID.
Precipitation will increase over the region tonight as the best
area of lift moves over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Models are still depicting a bulls eye of precip over extreme
eastern WA overnight with a sharp dropoff in QPF from Ritzville
west. The wildfires in north ID will likely get a good wetting
rain out of this system along with the Kiniksu Complex in Pend
Oreille County and possibly the Carpenter Rd Complex in southern
Stevens County but the big fires in Okanogan and Chelan Counties
will get little if any precipitation. Only minor changes made to
the current forecast package to adjust PoPs and min temps to
account for recent trends in observations. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Low pressure in close proximity to the forecast area
keeps both stratiform and convective cloud cover over next 24 hrs.
Showers will drift north into extreme southeast WA and central
panhandle of Idaho this evening along with isolated thunderstorms
possible but confidence is low that any TS will affect a
particular TAF site. The wettest interval will be overnight
tonight and into tomorrow as a wet frontal zone stalls over
Eastern Washington and North Idaho from about 09Z on bringing MVFR
conditions to TAF sites except KEAT. KMWH will be on the western
edge of the precipitation shield and may or may not see any rain.
As the low moves east Sat afternoon, any breaks in cloud cover may
allow convection to develop, with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the forecast area. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  53  43  66  45  68 /  80 100  50  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  53  43  65  44  67 /  80  90  70  10  10  10
Pullman        44  53  41  64  43  66 /  90  70  60  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  60  48  72  50  72 /  80  70  60  10  10  10
Colville       49  57  44  67  41  70 /  40  90  50  20  20  10
Sandpoint      47  54  45  64  40  66 /  60 100  60  20  20  20
Kellogg        46  52  43  63  40  63 /  70  80  70  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  71  49  75  48  76 /  30  50  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      53  72  52  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           52  73  46  75  45  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050357
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
857 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level low is dropping south into Oregon this evening
with areas of showers and even a few thunderstorms being pushed
north into southeast WA and the central panhandle of ID.
Precipitation will increase over the region tonight as the best
area of lift moves over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Models are still depicting a bulls eye of precip over extreme
eastern WA overnight with a sharp dropoff in QPF from Ritzville
west. The wildfires in north ID will likely get a good wetting
rain out of this system along with the Kiniksu Complex in Pend
Oreille County and possibly the Carpenter Rd Complex in southern
Stevens County but the big fires in Okanogan and Chelan Counties
will get little if any precipitation. Only minor changes made to
the current forecast package to adjust PoPs and min temps to
account for recent trends in observations. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Low pressure in close proximity to the forecast area
keeps both stratiform and convective cloud cover over next 24 hrs.
Showers will drift north into extreme southeast WA and central
panhandle of Idaho this evening along with isolated thunderstorms
possible but confidence is low that any TS will affect a
particular TAF site. The wettest interval will be overnight
tonight and into tomorrow as a wet frontal zone stalls over
Eastern Washington and North Idaho from about 09Z on bringing MVFR
conditions to TAF sites except KEAT. KMWH will be on the western
edge of the precipitation shield and may or may not see any rain.
As the low moves east Sat afternoon, any breaks in cloud cover may
allow convection to develop, with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the forecast area. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  53  43  66  45  68 /  80 100  50  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  53  43  65  44  67 /  80  90  70  10  10  10
Pullman        44  53  41  64  43  66 /  90  70  60  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  60  48  72  50  72 /  80  70  60  10  10  10
Colville       49  57  44  67  41  70 /  40  90  50  20  20  10
Sandpoint      47  54  45  64  40  66 /  60 100  60  20  20  20
Kellogg        46  52  43  63  40  63 /  70  80  70  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  71  49  75  48  76 /  30  50  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      53  72  52  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           52  73  46  75  45  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042345
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WET and MUCH COOLER for the eastern third of Washington and
North Idaho on Saturday...

Tonight through Saturday night...A wet period is in store for the
eastern third of Washington and North Idaho bringing much cooler
temperatures and some needed rain. A closed low over SW Washington
this afternoon will drop into Central Oregon this evening...NE
Oregon overnight...and then NW Montana by early Saturday evening.
There are several aspects of this system to talk about and we`ll
start with precipitation.

Precipitation: Models continue to show a band of stratiform rain
developing on the north side of this low track with a band of wrap
around rain as well on the back side of the low as it tracks
across the area. The low track will favor the highest rain totals
over the North Idaho Panhandle, NE Washington Mountains,
Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, Washington Palouse, the possibly the
far eastern portions of the Columbia Basin. Most of the rain will
fall overnight tonight into early Saturday evening. Models details
differ on precise amounts...but general consensus favors around a
half inch of rain in these areas with local pockets up to an inch.
The Okanogan Highlands and Moses Lake areas should be on the
western fringes of this rain with little to no rain for the
valleys along the East Slopes of the Cascades as well as the
Okanogan Valley and Moses Lake area.

Wind: As the low drops into Oregon tonight surface pressure
gradients increase over northern Washington and near the Cascades
supporting breezy to locally windy conditions mainly on ridge tops
and through channeled valleys. 850mb winds out of the north of
20-30 kts tonight will especially favor the northern valleys and
then as 850mb winds turn to the west-northwest on Saturday the
focus of the strongest winds should shift to the East Slope
Cascade valleys such as the Methow, Lake Chelan, and Wenatchee
River Valley.

Temperatures: 850mb temps fall to 4-6C over far Eastern WA and
North Idaho on Saturday due to a rain cooled air mass. High temps
in the valleys will only reach the low to mid 50s with upper 30s
and 40s in the mountains. Snow levels are expected to fall over
Eastern WA/N Idaho to 6500-7000 feet.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight around
the Spokane area, Palouse, Camas Prairie, Lewiston area, and
Central Panhandle Mountains as strong forcing and mid level
instability is present in these areas. Isolated thunderstorms are
also possible over the high terrain of the Cascades through early
this evening under the cold pool aloft with some strikes already
occurring along the west slopes. On Saturday it will remain
unstable with a 500mb cold pool of -20C over the region. If sun
breaks materialize a few short lived storms could develop.  JW

Sunday through Wednesday night...This interval starts out with a
general longwave trof lingering in the area but the feature
appears slightly less intense due to the exiting synoptic scale
low pressure system in Montana heading east and away from the
area. This this allows a bit of shortwave ridging to nest in the
general trof and gives it that slightly less intense look about
it. A second much weaker mesoscale disturbance passes through
Sunday night and exits Monday. The combination of the disturbance
exit and some lingering instability and northwest flow allow for
pops to persist a bit longer in the North Idaho Panhandle Monday
while locations further to the west clear out with the northerly
flow ahead of positively tilted ridging just to the west. This
shortwave passage may also allow for some breezy conditions and
shifting winds Sunday afternoon and evening. Then a positively
tilted ridge is overhead of the forecast area allowing for a dry
Monday night. This ridge flattens out a bit on Tuesday yet the
conditions are expected to remain dry. An almost flat zonal flow
void of shortwave migration remains for Tuesday night into
Wednesday that in turn gets amplified by yet more positively
tilted shortwave ridging moving in from the west allowing for a
dry Wednesday night. Forecast daytime high temperatures remain on
the cool side of what would be considered normal for this time of
year with a slight warming trend due to the transition from
longwave trof to more of a ridge. /Pelatti

Thurs through Saturday morning...With a broad upper ridge shown
by the majority of model guidance, expect well above normal high
temperatures in the 80s for most towns and no chance of pcpn. The
largest uncertainty is with the ECMWF showing a transient short-
wave trough moving across Srn Bc. The ensemble means still support
a dry fcst, though.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Low pressure in close proximity to the forecast area
keeps both stratiform and convective cloud cover over next 24 hrs.
Showers will drift north into extreme southeast WA and central
panhandle of Idaho this evening along with isolated thunderstorms
possible but confidence is low that any TS will affect a
particular TAF site. The wettest interval will be overnight
tonight and into tomorrow as a wet frontal zone stalls over
Eastern Washington and North Idaho from about 09Z on bringing MVFR
conditions to TAF sites except KEAT. KMWH will be on the western
edge of the precipitation shield and may or may not see any rain.
As the low moves east Sat afternoon, any breaks in cloud cover may
allow convection to develop, with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the forecast area. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  53  43  66  45  68 /  80 100  50  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  53  43  65  44  67 /  80  90  70  10  10  10
Pullman        44  53  41  64  43  66 /  90  70  60  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  60  48  72  50  72 /  80  70  60  10  10  10
Colville       51  57  44  67  41  70 /  40  90  50  20  20  10
Sandpoint      47  54  45  64  40  66 /  60 100  60  20  20  20
Kellogg        46  52  43  63  40  63 /  70  80  70  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  71  49  75  48  76 /  30  50  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      53  72  52  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           52  73  46  75  45  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042345
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WET and MUCH COOLER for the eastern third of Washington and
North Idaho on Saturday...

Tonight through Saturday night...A wet period is in store for the
eastern third of Washington and North Idaho bringing much cooler
temperatures and some needed rain. A closed low over SW Washington
this afternoon will drop into Central Oregon this evening...NE
Oregon overnight...and then NW Montana by early Saturday evening.
There are several aspects of this system to talk about and we`ll
start with precipitation.

Precipitation: Models continue to show a band of stratiform rain
developing on the north side of this low track with a band of wrap
around rain as well on the back side of the low as it tracks
across the area. The low track will favor the highest rain totals
over the North Idaho Panhandle, NE Washington Mountains,
Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, Washington Palouse, the possibly the
far eastern portions of the Columbia Basin. Most of the rain will
fall overnight tonight into early Saturday evening. Models details
differ on precise amounts...but general consensus favors around a
half inch of rain in these areas with local pockets up to an inch.
The Okanogan Highlands and Moses Lake areas should be on the
western fringes of this rain with little to no rain for the
valleys along the East Slopes of the Cascades as well as the
Okanogan Valley and Moses Lake area.

Wind: As the low drops into Oregon tonight surface pressure
gradients increase over northern Washington and near the Cascades
supporting breezy to locally windy conditions mainly on ridge tops
and through channeled valleys. 850mb winds out of the north of
20-30 kts tonight will especially favor the northern valleys and
then as 850mb winds turn to the west-northwest on Saturday the
focus of the strongest winds should shift to the East Slope
Cascade valleys such as the Methow, Lake Chelan, and Wenatchee
River Valley.

Temperatures: 850mb temps fall to 4-6C over far Eastern WA and
North Idaho on Saturday due to a rain cooled air mass. High temps
in the valleys will only reach the low to mid 50s with upper 30s
and 40s in the mountains. Snow levels are expected to fall over
Eastern WA/N Idaho to 6500-7000 feet.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight around
the Spokane area, Palouse, Camas Prairie, Lewiston area, and
Central Panhandle Mountains as strong forcing and mid level
instability is present in these areas. Isolated thunderstorms are
also possible over the high terrain of the Cascades through early
this evening under the cold pool aloft with some strikes already
occurring along the west slopes. On Saturday it will remain
unstable with a 500mb cold pool of -20C over the region. If sun
breaks materialize a few short lived storms could develop.  JW

Sunday through Wednesday night...This interval starts out with a
general longwave trof lingering in the area but the feature
appears slightly less intense due to the exiting synoptic scale
low pressure system in Montana heading east and away from the
area. This this allows a bit of shortwave ridging to nest in the
general trof and gives it that slightly less intense look about
it. A second much weaker mesoscale disturbance passes through
Sunday night and exits Monday. The combination of the disturbance
exit and some lingering instability and northwest flow allow for
pops to persist a bit longer in the North Idaho Panhandle Monday
while locations further to the west clear out with the northerly
flow ahead of positively tilted ridging just to the west. This
shortwave passage may also allow for some breezy conditions and
shifting winds Sunday afternoon and evening. Then a positively
tilted ridge is overhead of the forecast area allowing for a dry
Monday night. This ridge flattens out a bit on Tuesday yet the
conditions are expected to remain dry. An almost flat zonal flow
void of shortwave migration remains for Tuesday night into
Wednesday that in turn gets amplified by yet more positively
tilted shortwave ridging moving in from the west allowing for a
dry Wednesday night. Forecast daytime high temperatures remain on
the cool side of what would be considered normal for this time of
year with a slight warming trend due to the transition from
longwave trof to more of a ridge. /Pelatti

Thurs through Saturday morning...With a broad upper ridge shown
by the majority of model guidance, expect well above normal high
temperatures in the 80s for most towns and no chance of pcpn. The
largest uncertainty is with the ECMWF showing a transient short-
wave trough moving across Srn Bc. The ensemble means still support
a dry fcst, though.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Low pressure in close proximity to the forecast area
keeps both stratiform and convective cloud cover over next 24 hrs.
Showers will drift north into extreme southeast WA and central
panhandle of Idaho this evening along with isolated thunderstorms
possible but confidence is low that any TS will affect a
particular TAF site. The wettest interval will be overnight
tonight and into tomorrow as a wet frontal zone stalls over
Eastern Washington and North Idaho from about 09Z on bringing MVFR
conditions to TAF sites except KEAT. KMWH will be on the western
edge of the precipitation shield and may or may not see any rain.
As the low moves east Sat afternoon, any breaks in cloud cover may
allow convection to develop, with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the forecast area. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  53  43  66  45  68 /  80 100  50  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  53  43  65  44  67 /  80  90  70  10  10  10
Pullman        44  53  41  64  43  66 /  90  70  60  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  60  48  72  50  72 /  80  70  60  10  10  10
Colville       51  57  44  67  41  70 /  40  90  50  20  20  10
Sandpoint      47  54  45  64  40  66 /  60 100  60  20  20  20
Kellogg        46  52  43  63  40  63 /  70  80  70  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  71  49  75  48  76 /  30  50  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      53  72  52  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           52  73  46  75  45  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 042250 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
350 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEPART AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN THERE. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS AND SW WA. A GOOD PORTION
OF WRN WA WAS CLEARING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE SATURDAY FOR A DAY WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN TO WRN WA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER SAT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND A
PSCZ MIGHT FORM IN THE SEATTLE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE 18Z GFS IS WETTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN.

.LONG TERM...WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS CREEP UP AND SYSTEMS GET WEAKER AND PASS NORTH
OF WRN WA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
B.C. FRIDAY AND THEN A STRONG RIDGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE OF
RATHER WARM DAYS. THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO B.C.
ON SAT AND THEN DIGGING SE THRU ALBERTA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING HEIGHTS
LOWER AND COOLER AIR OVER WRN WA. THE TIMING OF TROPICAL MOISTURE KICKING
INTO THE WESTERLIES OUT AROUND 160W PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR THE DIFFERENCE
BUT MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A TREND TO WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS A GOOD
BET AND THE 18Z GFS ALSO LOOKS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN NOW
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO NWLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND BROKEN LOW VFR STRATUS WILL BECOME
MORE SPOTTY AND BE REPLACED WITH HIGHER VFR CIGS FROM REMNANTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES. I AM NOT EXPECTING THE TSTORMS THIS
EVENING TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT KOLM
AND KHQM.

KSEA...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO LIGHT SLY AROUND OR
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. SLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND
STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY EVENING. CHANCES OF EARLY SAT MORNING FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL HAVE INCREASED BUT I AM STILL
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN MORE THAN SCT AT SEATAC. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. GRADIENTS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND THEN SLY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT DIP ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRAIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE SUNDAY
AFTER THE LOW PASSES THROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 042250 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
350 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEPART AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN THERE. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS AND SW WA. A GOOD PORTION
OF WRN WA WAS CLEARING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE SATURDAY FOR A DAY WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN TO WRN WA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER SAT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND A
PSCZ MIGHT FORM IN THE SEATTLE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE 18Z GFS IS WETTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN.

.LONG TERM...WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS CREEP UP AND SYSTEMS GET WEAKER AND PASS NORTH
OF WRN WA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
B.C. FRIDAY AND THEN A STRONG RIDGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE OF
RATHER WARM DAYS. THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO B.C.
ON SAT AND THEN DIGGING SE THRU ALBERTA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING HEIGHTS
LOWER AND COOLER AIR OVER WRN WA. THE TIMING OF TROPICAL MOISTURE KICKING
INTO THE WESTERLIES OUT AROUND 160W PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR THE DIFFERENCE
BUT MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A TREND TO WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS A GOOD
BET AND THE 18Z GFS ALSO LOOKS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN NOW
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO NWLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND BROKEN LOW VFR STRATUS WILL BECOME
MORE SPOTTY AND BE REPLACED WITH HIGHER VFR CIGS FROM REMNANTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES. I AM NOT EXPECTING THE TSTORMS THIS
EVENING TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT KOLM
AND KHQM.

KSEA...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO LIGHT SLY AROUND OR
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. SLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND
STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY EVENING. CHANCES OF EARLY SAT MORNING FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL HAVE INCREASED BUT I AM STILL
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN MORE THAN SCT AT SEATAC. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. GRADIENTS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND THEN SLY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT DIP ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRAIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE SUNDAY
AFTER THE LOW PASSES THROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 042236
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEPART AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN THERE. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS AND SW WA. A GOOD PORTION
OF WRN WA WAS CLEARING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE SATURDAY FOR A DAY WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN TO WRN WA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER SAT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND A
PSCZ MIGHT FORM IN THE SEATTLE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT EACH SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO STAY
FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND OVERALL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND THE AIR WILL
WARM AND DRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS CREEP UP AND SYSTEMS GET WEAKER AND PASS NORTH
OF WRN WA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
B.C. FRIDAY AND THEN A STRONG RIDGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE OF
RATHER WARM DAYS. THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO B.C.
ON SAT AND THEN DIGGING SE THRU ALBERTA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING HEIGHTS
LOWER AND COOLER AIR OVER WRN WA. THE TIMING OF TROPICAL MOISTURE KICKING
INTO THE WESTERLIES OUT AROUND 160W PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR THE DIFFERENCE
BUT MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A TREND TO WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO NWLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND BROKEN LOW VFR STRATUS WILL BECOME
MORE SPOTTY AND BE REPLACED WITH HIGHER VFR CIGS FROM REMNANTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES. I AM NOT EXPECTING THE TSTORMS THIS
EVENING TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT KOLM
AND KHQM.

KSEA...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO LIGHT SLY AROUND OR
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. SLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND
STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY EVENING. CHANCES OF EARLY SAT MORNING FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL HAVE INCREASED BUT I AM STILL
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN MORE THAN SCT AT SEATAC. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. GRADIENTS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND THEN SLY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT DIP ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRAIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE SUNDAY
AFTER THE LOW PASSES THROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 042236
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEPART AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTH PART OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN THERE. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS AND SW WA. A GOOD PORTION
OF WRN WA WAS CLEARING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE SATURDAY FOR A DAY WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN TO WRN WA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER SAT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND A
PSCZ MIGHT FORM IN THE SEATTLE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT EACH SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO STAY
FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND OVERALL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND THE AIR WILL
WARM AND DRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS CREEP UP AND SYSTEMS GET WEAKER AND PASS NORTH
OF WRN WA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
B.C. FRIDAY AND THEN A STRONG RIDGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE OF
RATHER WARM DAYS. THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO B.C.
ON SAT AND THEN DIGGING SE THRU ALBERTA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING HEIGHTS
LOWER AND COOLER AIR OVER WRN WA. THE TIMING OF TROPICAL MOISTURE KICKING
INTO THE WESTERLIES OUT AROUND 160W PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR THE DIFFERENCE
BUT MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A TREND TO WARMER SUNNIER WEATHER IS A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO NWLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND BROKEN LOW VFR STRATUS WILL BECOME
MORE SPOTTY AND BE REPLACED WITH HIGHER VFR CIGS FROM REMNANTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES. I AM NOT EXPECTING THE TSTORMS THIS
EVENING TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT KOLM
AND KHQM.

KSEA...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO LIGHT SLY AROUND OR
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. SLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND
STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY EVENING. CHANCES OF EARLY SAT MORNING FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL HAVE INCREASED BUT I AM STILL
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN MORE THAN SCT AT SEATAC. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. GRADIENTS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND THEN SLY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT DIP ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRAIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE SUNDAY
AFTER THE LOW PASSES THROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KPQR 042139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICTAE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER
SCATTERED CU. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SKIES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP
TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INCREASING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS TO THE WATERS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING A
FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OREGON NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL BECOME WIND DRIVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARDS 7 FT LATE NEXT WEEK.
/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 042139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICTAE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER
SCATTERED CU. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SKIES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP
TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INCREASING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS TO THE WATERS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING A
FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OREGON NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL BECOME WIND DRIVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARDS 7 FT LATE NEXT WEEK.
/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 042139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICTAE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER
SCATTERED CU. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SKIES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP
TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INCREASING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS TO THE WATERS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING A
FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OREGON NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL BECOME WIND DRIVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARDS 7 FT LATE NEXT WEEK.
/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTED INLAND. UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS
SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP WITH THE SHOWERS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING E EXPECT ONLY LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FLOW TURNS NW SAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING SW OFF THE BC COAST SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN WA SUN MORNING. A MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICTAE THE FIRST THREAT FOR RAIN ON THE S
WA COAST AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...THEN SPREAD POPS FURTHER INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
FOLLOWS...AND IS TO MOVE SE ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO AN END. MODELS INDICATE MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
290K ISENTROPE BY SUN MORNING ACROSS SW WA...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A
BIT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN. DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES POKES IN OVER THE REGION
OFF THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS THE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND WARM WEATHER MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR OUR AREA. EXPECT WARMER...MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NORTH COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER
SCATTERED CU. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SKIES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 09Z. EXPECT ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP
TONIGHT TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER SCATTERED CU THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INCREASING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS TO THE WATERS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY BRING A
FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OREGON NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRUSH THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS OF WESTERLY WINDS.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL BECOME WIND DRIVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARDS 7 FT LATE NEXT WEEK.
/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WET and MUCH COOLER for the eastern third of Washington and
North Idaho on Saturday...

Tonight through Saturday night...A wet period is in store for the
eastern third of Washington and North Idaho bringing much cooler
temperatures and some needed rain. A closed low over SW Washington
this afternoon will drop into Central Oregon this evening...NE
Oregon overnight...and then NW Montana by early Saturday evening.
There are several aspects of this system to talk about and we`ll
start with precipitation.

Precipitation: Models continue to show a band of stratiform rain
developing on the north side of this low track with a band of wrap
around rain as well on the back side of the low as it tracks
across the area. The low track will favor the highest rain totals
over the North Idaho Panhandle, NE Washington Mountains,
Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, Washington Palouse, the possibly the
far eastern portions of the Columbia Basin. Most of the rain will
fall overnight tonight into early Saturday evening. Models details
differ on precise amounts...but general consensus favors around a
half inch of rain in these areas with local pockets up to an inch.
The Okanogan Highlands and Moses Lake areas should be on the
western fringes of this rain with little to no rain for the
valleys along the East Slopes of the Cascades as well as the
Okanogan Valley and Moses Lake area.

Wind: As the low drops into Oregon tonight surface pressure
gradients increase over northern washington and near the Cascades
supporting breezy to locally windy conditions mainly on ridge
tops and through channeled valleys. 850mb winds out of the north
of 20-30 kts tonight will especially favor the northern valleys
and then as 850mb winds turn to the west-northwest on Saturday the
focus of the strongest winds should shift to the East Slope
Cascade valleys such as the Methow, Lake Chelan, and Wenatchee
River Valley.

Temperatures: 850mb temps fall to 4-6C over far Eastern WA and
North Idaho on Saturday due to a rain cooled air mass. High temps
in the valleys will only reach the low to mid 50s with upper 30s
and 40s in the mountains. Snow levels are expected to fall over
Eastern WA/N Idaho to 6500-7000 feet.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight around
the Spokane area, Palouse, Camas Prairie, Lewiston area, and
Central Panhandle Mountains as strong forcing and mid level
instability is present in these areas. Isolated thunderstorms are
also possible over the high terrain of the Cascades through early
this evening under the cold pool aloft with some strikes already
occurring along the west slopes. On Saturday it will remain
unstable with a 500mb cold pool of -20C over the region. If sun
breaks materialize a few short lived storms could develop.  JW

Sunday through Wednesday night...This interval starts out with a
general longwave trof lingering in the area but the feature
appears slightly less intense due to the exiting synoptic scale
low pressure system in Montana heading east and away from the
area. This this allows a bit of shortwave ridging to nest in the
general trof and gives it that slightly less intense look about
it. A second much weaker mesoscale disturbance passes through
Sunday night and exits Monday. The combination of the disturbance
exit and some lingering instability and northwest flow allow for
pops to persist a bit longer in the North Idaho Panhandle Monday
while locations further to the west clear out with the northerly
flow ahead of positively tilted ridging just to the west. This
shortwave passage may also allow for some breezy conditions and
shifting winds Sunday afternoon and evening. Then a positively
tilted ridge is overhead of the forecast area allowing for a dry
Monday night. This ridge flattens out a bit on Tuesday yet the
conditions are expected to remain dry. An almost flat zonal flow
void of shortwave migration remains for Tuesday night into
Wednesday that in turn gets amplified by yet more positively
tilted shortwave ridging moving in from the west allowing for a
dry Wednesday night. Forecast daytime high temperatures remain on
the cool side of what would be considered normal for this time of
year with a slight warming trend due to the transition from
longwave trof to more of a ridge. /Pelatti

Thurs through Saturday morning...With a broad upper ridge shown
by the majority of model guidance, expect well above normal high
temperatures in the 80s for most towns and no chance of pcpn. The
largest uncertainty is with the ECMWF showing a transient short-
wave trough moving across Srn Bc. The ensemble means still support
a dry fcst, though.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Instability resulting from having an area of low
pressure within close proximity to the forecast area keeps both
stratiform and convective cloud cover in the forecast through much
of the time interval. In addition showers and some thunderstorms
remain mentioned this afternoon and early evening but the wettest
interval is to occur overnight tonight and on into tomorrow as a
wet occluded frontal zone pivots and wraps a bit around the edge
of the low which keeps in in place over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho from about 9Z on and beyond. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  53  43  66  45  68 /  80 100  50  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  53  43  65  44  67 /  80  90  70  10  10  10
Pullman        44  53  41  64  43  66 /  90  70  60  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  60  48  72  50  72 /  80  70  60  10  10  10
Colville       51  57  44  67  41  70 /  40  90  50  20  20  10
Sandpoint      47  54  45  64  40  66 /  60 100  60  20  20  20
Kellogg        46  52  43  63  40  63 /  70  80  70  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  71  49  75  48  76 /  30  50  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      53  72  52  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           52  73  46  75  45  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler
temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington Saturday. Light showers may linger mainly across the
mountains Sunday and Monday. A drying and warming trend is
expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WET and MUCH COOLER for the eastern third of Washington and
North Idaho on Saturday...

Tonight through Saturday night...A wet period is in store for the
eastern third of Washington and North Idaho bringing much cooler
temperatures and some needed rain. A closed low over SW Washington
this afternoon will drop into Central Oregon this evening...NE
Oregon overnight...and then NW Montana by early Saturday evening.
There are several aspects of this system to talk about and we`ll
start with precipitation.

Precipitation: Models continue to show a band of stratiform rain
developing on the north side of this low track with a band of wrap
around rain as well on the back side of the low as it tracks
across the area. The low track will favor the highest rain totals
over the North Idaho Panhandle, NE Washington Mountains,
Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, Washington Palouse, the possibly the
far eastern portions of the Columbia Basin. Most of the rain will
fall overnight tonight into early Saturday evening. Models details
differ on precise amounts...but general consensus favors around a
half inch of rain in these areas with local pockets up to an inch.
The Okanogan Highlands and Moses Lake areas should be on the
western fringes of this rain with little to no rain for the
valleys along the East Slopes of the Cascades as well as the
Okanogan Valley and Moses Lake area.

Wind: As the low drops into Oregon tonight surface pressure
gradients increase over northern washington and near the Cascades
supporting breezy to locally windy conditions mainly on ridge
tops and through channeled valleys. 850mb winds out of the north
of 20-30 kts tonight will especially favor the northern valleys
and then as 850mb winds turn to the west-northwest on Saturday the
focus of the strongest winds should shift to the East Slope
Cascade valleys such as the Methow, Lake Chelan, and Wenatchee
River Valley.

Temperatures: 850mb temps fall to 4-6C over far Eastern WA and
North Idaho on Saturday due to a rain cooled air mass. High temps
in the valleys will only reach the low to mid 50s with upper 30s
and 40s in the mountains. Snow levels are expected to fall over
Eastern WA/N Idaho to 6500-7000 feet.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight around
the Spokane area, Palouse, Camas Prairie, Lewiston area, and
Central Panhandle Mountains as strong forcing and mid level
instability is present in these areas. Isolated thunderstorms are
also possible over the high terrain of the Cascades through early
this evening under the cold pool aloft with some strikes already
occurring along the west slopes. On Saturday it will remain
unstable with a 500mb cold pool of -20C over the region. If sun
breaks materialize a few short lived storms could develop.  JW

Sunday through Wednesday night...This interval starts out with a
general longwave trof lingering in the area but the feature
appears slightly less intense due to the exiting synoptic scale
low pressure system in Montana heading east and away from the
area. This this allows a bit of shortwave ridging to nest in the
general trof and gives it that slightly less intense look about
it. A second much weaker mesoscale disturbance passes through
Sunday night and exits Monday. The combination of the disturbance
exit and some lingering instability and northwest flow allow for
pops to persist a bit longer in the North Idaho Panhandle Monday
while locations further to the west clear out with the northerly
flow ahead of positively tilted ridging just to the west. This
shortwave passage may also allow for some breezy conditions and
shifting winds Sunday afternoon and evening. Then a positively
tilted ridge is overhead of the forecast area allowing for a dry
Monday night. This ridge flattens out a bit on Tuesday yet the
conditions are expected to remain dry. An almost flat zonal flow
void of shortwave migration remains for Tuesday night into
Wednesday that in turn gets amplified by yet more positively
tilted shortwave ridging moving in from the west allowing for a
dry Wednesday night. Forecast daytime high temperatures remain on
the cool side of what would be considered normal for this time of
year with a slight warming trend due to the transition from
longwave trof to more of a ridge. /Pelatti

Thurs through Saturday morning...With a broad upper ridge shown
by the majority of model guidance, expect well above normal high
temperatures in the 80s for most towns and no chance of pcpn. The
largest uncertainty is with the ECMWF showing a transient short-
wave trough moving across Srn Bc. The ensemble means still support
a dry fcst, though.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Instability resulting from having an area of low
pressure within close proximity to the forecast area keeps both
stratiform and convective cloud cover in the forecast through much
of the time interval. In addition showers and some thunderstorms
remain mentioned this afternoon and early evening but the wettest
interval is to occur overnight tonight and on into tomorrow as a
wet occluded frontal zone pivots and wraps a bit around the edge
of the low which keeps in in place over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho from about 9Z on and beyond. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  53  43  66  45  68 /  80 100  50  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  53  43  65  44  67 /  80  90  70  10  10  10
Pullman        44  53  41  64  43  66 /  90  70  60  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  60  48  72  50  72 /  80  70  60  10  10  10
Colville       51  57  44  67  41  70 /  40  90  50  20  20  10
Sandpoint      47  54  45  64  40  66 /  60 100  60  20  20  20
Kellogg        46  52  43  63  40  63 /  70  80  70  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  71  49  75  48  76 /  30  50  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      53  72  52  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           52  73  46  75  45  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 041733
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1033 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated to include patchy fog over the
southern Palouse around Uniontown, the Camas Prairie, and the
Central Panhandle valleys south of Interstate 90 per web cams and
visible satellite imagery. Also, models have backed off on the
instability this afternoon around Wenatchee and Omak with the best
instability in the Cascades. Thus...the slight chance of
thunderstorms for the afternoon was removed in the valleys of
north Central Washington but kept for the high terrain.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Instability resulting from having an area of low
pressure within close proximity to the forecast area keeps both
stratiform and convective cloud cover in the forecast through much
of the time interval. In addition showers and some thunderstorms
remain mentioned this afternoon and early evening but the wettest
interval is to occur overnight tonight and on into tomorrow as a
wet occluded frontal zone pivots and wraps a bit around the edge
of the low which keeps in in place over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho from about 9Z on and beyond. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041733
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1033 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated to include patchy fog over the
southern Palouse around Uniontown, the Camas Prairie, and the
Central Panhandle valleys south of Interstate 90 per web cams and
visible satellite imagery. Also, models have backed off on the
instability this afternoon around Wenatchee and Omak with the best
instability in the Cascades. Thus...the slight chance of
thunderstorms for the afternoon was removed in the valleys of
north Central Washington but kept for the high terrain.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Instability resulting from having an area of low
pressure within close proximity to the forecast area keeps both
stratiform and convective cloud cover in the forecast through much
of the time interval. In addition showers and some thunderstorms
remain mentioned this afternoon and early evening but the wettest
interval is to occur overnight tonight and on into tomorrow as a
wet occluded frontal zone pivots and wraps a bit around the edge
of the low which keeps in in place over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho from about 9Z on and beyond. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041733
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1033 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated to include patchy fog over the
southern Palouse around Uniontown, the Camas Prairie, and the
Central Panhandle valleys south of Interstate 90 per web cams and
visible satellite imagery. Also, models have backed off on the
instability this afternoon around Wenatchee and Omak with the best
instability in the Cascades. Thus...the slight chance of
thunderstorms for the afternoon was removed in the valleys of
north Central Washington but kept for the high terrain.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Instability resulting from having an area of low
pressure within close proximity to the forecast area keeps both
stratiform and convective cloud cover in the forecast through much
of the time interval. In addition showers and some thunderstorms
remain mentioned this afternoon and early evening but the wettest
interval is to occur overnight tonight and on into tomorrow as a
wet occluded frontal zone pivots and wraps a bit around the edge
of the low which keeps in in place over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho from about 9Z on and beyond. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 041733
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1033 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated to include patchy fog over the
southern Palouse around Uniontown, the Camas Prairie, and the
Central Panhandle valleys south of Interstate 90 per web cams and
visible satellite imagery. Also, models have backed off on the
instability this afternoon around Wenatchee and Omak with the best
instability in the Cascades. Thus...the slight chance of
thunderstorms for the afternoon was removed in the valleys of
north Central Washington but kept for the high terrain.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Instability resulting from having an area of low
pressure within close proximity to the forecast area keeps both
stratiform and convective cloud cover in the forecast through much
of the time interval. In addition showers and some thunderstorms
remain mentioned this afternoon and early evening but the wettest
interval is to occur overnight tonight and on into tomorrow as a
wet occluded frontal zone pivots and wraps a bit around the edge
of the low which keeps in in place over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho from about 9Z on and beyond. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 041641
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND INTO WESTERN OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS UP AND DOWN THE I-5
CORRIDOR WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY FOR A DAY OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AND SUNNIER
WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SAT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN B.C. NEXT TUESDAY
WHICH MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
POPS ARE LOW AT 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE NUDGED UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE RIDGE MAY START TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL B.C. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN EARLY
SATURDAY. THE MOIST AND MOSTLY STABLE AIRMASS FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH IS GIVING THE MVFR AND IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
SHOULD DESTABILIZE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...GIVING VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT
KOLM AND KHQM.

KSEA...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SWITCH TO LIGHT SLY AROUND OR SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GRADIENTS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND THEN SLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT DIP ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRAIT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 041641
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND INTO WESTERN OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS UP AND DOWN THE I-5
CORRIDOR WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY FOR A DAY OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AND SUNNIER
WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SAT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN B.C. NEXT TUESDAY
WHICH MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
POPS ARE LOW AT 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE NUDGED UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE RIDGE MAY START TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL B.C. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN EARLY
SATURDAY. THE MOIST AND MOSTLY STABLE AIRMASS FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH IS GIVING THE MVFR AND IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
SHOULD DESTABILIZE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...GIVING VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT
KOLM AND KHQM.

KSEA...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SWITCH TO LIGHT SLY AROUND OR SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GRADIENTS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND THEN SLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT DIP ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRAIT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 041641
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND INTO WESTERN OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS UP AND DOWN THE I-5
CORRIDOR WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY FOR A DAY OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AND SUNNIER
WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SAT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN B.C. NEXT TUESDAY
WHICH MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
POPS ARE LOW AT 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE NUDGED UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE RIDGE MAY START TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL B.C. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN EARLY
SATURDAY. THE MOIST AND MOSTLY STABLE AIRMASS FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH IS GIVING THE MVFR AND IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
SHOULD DESTABILIZE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...GIVING VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT
KOLM AND KHQM.

KSEA...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SWITCH TO LIGHT SLY AROUND OR SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GRADIENTS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND THEN SLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT DIP ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRAIT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 041641
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND INTO WESTERN OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS UP AND DOWN THE I-5
CORRIDOR WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY FOR A DAY OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AND SUNNIER
WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SAT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN B.C. NEXT TUESDAY
WHICH MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
POPS ARE LOW AT 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE NUDGED UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE RIDGE MAY START TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL B.C. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...AND WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN EARLY
SATURDAY. THE MOIST AND MOSTLY STABLE AIRMASS FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH IS GIVING THE MVFR AND IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
SHOULD DESTABILIZE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...GIVING VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT
KOLM AND KHQM.

KSEA...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SWITCH TO LIGHT SLY AROUND OR SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GRADIENTS WILL SWITCH TO MORE SWLY AND THEN SLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT DIP ALONG THE BC COAST AND INTO THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE STRAIT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 041615
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS
MORNING JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OVER WA AND OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING WAS MAINLY RELEGATED TO AREAS OFF THE COAST. AS DAYIME
WARMING KICKS IN THOUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS TO POP UP INLAND AS WELL.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON MOST ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH WILL
RETAIN BEST POPS OVER MOUNTAINS. COOL POOL WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LOW LINGERS SOME
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART OF SATURDAY NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS UNDER
ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY BEFORE WARMING UP CLOSE TO 70 OR THE
LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING SUNSHINE.

THE IMPROVING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CATCHING MOST OF THE COAST BUT MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND AREAS FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING  NEAR THE AREA...
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS OVER
THE NORTH COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
MOST RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE BY 18Z WITH VFR AND SCATTERED CU
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-03Z. SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STATUS TO
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 09Z SATURDAY. /64/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS TODAY. INCREASING LOW
PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALSO ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. A WEAK
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BRING FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO A
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO THE WATERS. THIS WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME A
BIT MORE WIND DOMINATED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041615
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS
MORNING JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OVER WA AND OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING WAS MAINLY RELEGATED TO AREAS OFF THE COAST. AS DAYIME
WARMING KICKS IN THOUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS TO POP UP INLAND AS WELL.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON MOST ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH WILL
RETAIN BEST POPS OVER MOUNTAINS. COOL POOL WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LOW LINGERS SOME
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART OF SATURDAY NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS UNDER
ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY BEFORE WARMING UP CLOSE TO 70 OR THE
LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING SUNSHINE.

THE IMPROVING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CATCHING MOST OF THE COAST BUT MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND AREAS FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING  NEAR THE AREA...
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS OVER
THE NORTH COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
MOST RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE BY 18Z WITH VFR AND SCATTERED CU
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-03Z. SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STATUS TO
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 09Z SATURDAY. /64/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS TODAY. INCREASING LOW
PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALSO ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. A WEAK
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BRING FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO A
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO THE WATERS. THIS WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME A
BIT MORE WIND DOMINATED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
753 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated to include patchy fog over the
southern Palouse around Uniontown, the Camas Prairie, and the
Central Panhandle valleys south of Interstate 90 per web cams and
visible satellite imagery. Also, models have backed off on the
instability this afternoon around Wenatchee and Omak with the best
instability in the Cascades. Thus...the slight chance of
thunderstorms for the afternoon was removed in the valleys of
north Central Washington but kept for the high terrain.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A low centered over western WA drops into western OR
between this morning and evening. A few -shra/-tsra will be a
risk near the Cascades and ID panhandle mountains. There is a risk
some may pass by EAT/OMK this afternoon too, but the risk is small.
The low pivots toward the OR/WA/ID border tonight into Saturday
morning, leading to an increasing rain threat for most TAF sites
after 01-05Z, though the best chances may not develop further
north near MWH/GEG/COE until after 06-09Z and EAT more likely will
remain dry. Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue, save
for near PUW/LWS where lower cigs are expected to drop toward
MVFR/lcl IFR conditions. But toward 12Z Saturday areas further
north will have a modest threat of seeing the flight category
drop below VFR. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
753 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated to include patchy fog over the
southern Palouse around Uniontown, the Camas Prairie, and the
Central Panhandle valleys south of Interstate 90 per web cams and
visible satellite imagery. Also, models have backed off on the
instability this afternoon around Wenatchee and Omak with the best
instability in the Cascades. Thus...the slight chance of
thunderstorms for the afternoon was removed in the valleys of
north Central Washington but kept for the high terrain.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A low centered over western WA drops into western OR
between this morning and evening. A few -shra/-tsra will be a
risk near the Cascades and ID panhandle mountains. There is a risk
some may pass by EAT/OMK this afternoon too, but the risk is small.
The low pivots toward the OR/WA/ID border tonight into Saturday
morning, leading to an increasing rain threat for most TAF sites
after 01-05Z, though the best chances may not develop further
north near MWH/GEG/COE until after 06-09Z and EAT more likely will
remain dry. Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue, save
for near PUW/LWS where lower cigs are expected to drop toward
MVFR/lcl IFR conditions. But toward 12Z Saturday areas further
north will have a modest threat of seeing the flight category
drop below VFR. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
753 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated to include patchy fog over the
southern Palouse around Uniontown, the Camas Prairie, and the
Central Panhandle valleys south of Interstate 90 per web cams and
visible satellite imagery. Also, models have backed off on the
instability this afternoon around Wenatchee and Omak with the best
instability in the Cascades. Thus...the slight chance of
thunderstorms for the afternoon was removed in the valleys of
north Central Washington but kept for the high terrain.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A low centered over western WA drops into western OR
between this morning and evening. A few -shra/-tsra will be a
risk near the Cascades and ID panhandle mountains. There is a risk
some may pass by EAT/OMK this afternoon too, but the risk is small.
The low pivots toward the OR/WA/ID border tonight into Saturday
morning, leading to an increasing rain threat for most TAF sites
after 01-05Z, though the best chances may not develop further
north near MWH/GEG/COE until after 06-09Z and EAT more likely will
remain dry. Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue, save
for near PUW/LWS where lower cigs are expected to drop toward
MVFR/lcl IFR conditions. But toward 12Z Saturday areas further
north will have a modest threat of seeing the flight category
drop below VFR. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
753 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated to include patchy fog over the
southern Palouse around Uniontown, the Camas Prairie, and the
Central Panhandle valleys south of Interstate 90 per web cams and
visible satellite imagery. Also, models have backed off on the
instability this afternoon around Wenatchee and Omak with the best
instability in the Cascades. Thus...the slight chance of
thunderstorms for the afternoon was removed in the valleys of
north Central Washington but kept for the high terrain.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A low centered over western WA drops into western OR
between this morning and evening. A few -shra/-tsra will be a
risk near the Cascades and ID panhandle mountains. There is a risk
some may pass by EAT/OMK this afternoon too, but the risk is small.
The low pivots toward the OR/WA/ID border tonight into Saturday
morning, leading to an increasing rain threat for most TAF sites
after 01-05Z, though the best chances may not develop further
north near MWH/GEG/COE until after 06-09Z and EAT more likely will
remain dry. Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue, save
for near PUW/LWS where lower cigs are expected to drop toward
MVFR/lcl IFR conditions. But toward 12Z Saturday areas further
north will have a modest threat of seeing the flight category
drop below VFR. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041136
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
436 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: Shower chances linger around the
mountains before a broader rain threat expands in tonight into
Saturday. Today low pressure migrates south from western WA to
western OR. The associated deformation axis along the Cascades and
shortwave rounding its east side will work afternoon instability
to bring a threat of showers over the Cascades, as well as the
Blue Mountains to Central Panhandle Mountains. A few shower may
also form over the northern Panhandle mountains but the risk here
will be low.

This evening into the overnight the low pivots east-northeast
toward the OR/WA/ID border. Moisture wrapping into a developing
trowal in tandem with the low and shortwave rounding it will bring
expanding rain into southeast WA and lower elevations of the
central and southern ID Panhandle this evening. Overnight the rain
threat will expand west into the Columbia Basin and Waterville
Plateau and north into northeast WA and north ID.

By Saturday much of the region will have some threat of rain. Yet
the area which will have the steadier and broader threat of
precipitation will be within the vicinity of the trowal and
activity elsewhere will be more scattered on its fringes. Models
disagree precisely where that feature will lay, with some pushing
it further west into the Columbia Basin than others. If this
verifies it would allow for some decrease in the precipitation
across the southeast Saturday afternoon.

As for thunderstorm between tonight and Saturday there will be
some risk. Tonight, especially overnight, models indicate a ribbon
of elevated instability expanding into southeast WA and the ID
panhandle. This is represented by some high level total totals
between 35 and 40 C. So some embedded thunderstorms are possible
here. By Saturday afternoon some SBCAPE develops with the best
agreement across the ID Panhandle, northern mountains and
Cascades. But some models show some convective instability across
the Columbia Basin too. Overall there will be a threat of isolated
to locally scattered thunderstorms but nothing too organized is
expected, given the lack of significant shear or deep instability.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and Saturday, with the
coldest average temperature expected on Saturday with the trowal
and steadier precipitation threat in the region. Some locations may
not get out of the 50s or lower 60s Saturday afternoon. /J. Cote`

Saturday night through Monday...Looks like the weather will remain
on the cool and wet side during this period as the medium range
models are fairly consistent on ejecting Saturdays low into
Montana only to be swiftly replaced by another low dropping down
from the northwest. Given this pattern, the best chances of
precipitation on Saturday evening will be fixed over the Idaho
Panhandle due to the placement of the upper level cold pool.
Potential instability parameters suggest there will be a small
chance of thunderstorms early in the evening, however warming
aloft will eliminate any chance of thunderstorms during the late
evening and overnight hours. For Sunday the next low is expected
to cross the Cascades via SW British Columbia with the upper level
jet extending from Seattle to Mullan Pass per the 00z GFS. If this
verifies, any chance of precipitation will generally occur over
the northern half of the forecast area, or generally north of
Highway 2 in Washington and over the northern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. The Canadian and EC show a slightly different scenario
with the Canadian showing a much weaker shortwave trough remaining
over BC, while the EC takes this second low and pushes it to the
WA/OR border. Suffice it to say confidence is high there will be a
secondary low, however where it goes is questionable. No matter
what the case, this second low will be weaker than the Saturday
system and will contain less potential instability. It will also
contain mid-level westerly flow sans warm air advection. This
means there will be a sizable rain shadow in the lee of the
Cascades. Even where the rain is expected to occur, precipitation
amounts will be light.

For Monday night through Tuesday night...any semblance of a low
temporarily moves out of the region with either zonal flow or weak
ridging replacing it. This suggests dry weather will prevail and
temperatures will begin to warm. Speaking of temperatures,
readings for the latter half of the weekend will remain
significantly cooler than normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid
70s or nearly 10 degrees below normal. By Tuesday the jet will
shift north of the Canadian border with temperatures surging
toward normal values for the first time in nearly a week. fx

Wednesday through Friday: A dry zonal pattern is expected to
dominate this period with some weak ridging build into the region.
This will keep any chance of rain for the region close to non
existent. Temperatures will continue to creep warmer with highs
expected in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will range
from mid 40s to mid 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A low centered over western WA drops into western OR
between this morning and evening. A few -shra/-tsra will be a
risk near the Cascades and ID panhandle mountains. There is a risk
some may pass by EAT/OMK this afternoon too, but the risk is small.
The low pivots toward the OR/WA/ID border tonight into Saturday
morning, leading to an increasing rain threat for most TAF sites
after 01-05Z, though the best chances may not develop further
north near MWH/GEG/COE until after 06-09Z and EAT more likely will
remain dry. Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue, save
for near PUW/LWS where lower cigs are expected to drop toward
MVFR/lcl IFR conditions. But toward 12Z Saturday areas further
north will have a modest threat of seeing the flight category
drop below VFR. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041136
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
436 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: Shower chances linger around the
mountains before a broader rain threat expands in tonight into
Saturday. Today low pressure migrates south from western WA to
western OR. The associated deformation axis along the Cascades and
shortwave rounding its east side will work afternoon instability
to bring a threat of showers over the Cascades, as well as the
Blue Mountains to Central Panhandle Mountains. A few shower may
also form over the northern Panhandle mountains but the risk here
will be low.

This evening into the overnight the low pivots east-northeast
toward the OR/WA/ID border. Moisture wrapping into a developing
trowal in tandem with the low and shortwave rounding it will bring
expanding rain into southeast WA and lower elevations of the
central and southern ID Panhandle this evening. Overnight the rain
threat will expand west into the Columbia Basin and Waterville
Plateau and north into northeast WA and north ID.

By Saturday much of the region will have some threat of rain. Yet
the area which will have the steadier and broader threat of
precipitation will be within the vicinity of the trowal and
activity elsewhere will be more scattered on its fringes. Models
disagree precisely where that feature will lay, with some pushing
it further west into the Columbia Basin than others. If this
verifies it would allow for some decrease in the precipitation
across the southeast Saturday afternoon.

As for thunderstorm between tonight and Saturday there will be
some risk. Tonight, especially overnight, models indicate a ribbon
of elevated instability expanding into southeast WA and the ID
panhandle. This is represented by some high level total totals
between 35 and 40 C. So some embedded thunderstorms are possible
here. By Saturday afternoon some SBCAPE develops with the best
agreement across the ID Panhandle, northern mountains and
Cascades. But some models show some convective instability across
the Columbia Basin too. Overall there will be a threat of isolated
to locally scattered thunderstorms but nothing too organized is
expected, given the lack of significant shear or deep instability.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and Saturday, with the
coldest average temperature expected on Saturday with the trowal
and steadier precipitation threat in the region. Some locations may
not get out of the 50s or lower 60s Saturday afternoon. /J. Cote`

Saturday night through Monday...Looks like the weather will remain
on the cool and wet side during this period as the medium range
models are fairly consistent on ejecting Saturdays low into
Montana only to be swiftly replaced by another low dropping down
from the northwest. Given this pattern, the best chances of
precipitation on Saturday evening will be fixed over the Idaho
Panhandle due to the placement of the upper level cold pool.
Potential instability parameters suggest there will be a small
chance of thunderstorms early in the evening, however warming
aloft will eliminate any chance of thunderstorms during the late
evening and overnight hours. For Sunday the next low is expected
to cross the Cascades via SW British Columbia with the upper level
jet extending from Seattle to Mullan Pass per the 00z GFS. If this
verifies, any chance of precipitation will generally occur over
the northern half of the forecast area, or generally north of
Highway 2 in Washington and over the northern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. The Canadian and EC show a slightly different scenario
with the Canadian showing a much weaker shortwave trough remaining
over BC, while the EC takes this second low and pushes it to the
WA/OR border. Suffice it to say confidence is high there will be a
secondary low, however where it goes is questionable. No matter
what the case, this second low will be weaker than the Saturday
system and will contain less potential instability. It will also
contain mid-level westerly flow sans warm air advection. This
means there will be a sizable rain shadow in the lee of the
Cascades. Even where the rain is expected to occur, precipitation
amounts will be light.

For Monday night through Tuesday night...any semblance of a low
temporarily moves out of the region with either zonal flow or weak
ridging replacing it. This suggests dry weather will prevail and
temperatures will begin to warm. Speaking of temperatures,
readings for the latter half of the weekend will remain
significantly cooler than normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid
70s or nearly 10 degrees below normal. By Tuesday the jet will
shift north of the Canadian border with temperatures surging
toward normal values for the first time in nearly a week. fx

Wednesday through Friday: A dry zonal pattern is expected to
dominate this period with some weak ridging build into the region.
This will keep any chance of rain for the region close to non
existent. Temperatures will continue to creep warmer with highs
expected in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will range
from mid 40s to mid 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A low centered over western WA drops into western OR
between this morning and evening. A few -shra/-tsra will be a
risk near the Cascades and ID panhandle mountains. There is a risk
some may pass by EAT/OMK this afternoon too, but the risk is small.
The low pivots toward the OR/WA/ID border tonight into Saturday
morning, leading to an increasing rain threat for most TAF sites
after 01-05Z, though the best chances may not develop further
north near MWH/GEG/COE until after 06-09Z and EAT more likely will
remain dry. Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue, save
for near PUW/LWS where lower cigs are expected to drop toward
MVFR/lcl IFR conditions. But toward 12Z Saturday areas further
north will have a modest threat of seeing the flight category
drop below VFR. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041136
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
436 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: Shower chances linger around the
mountains before a broader rain threat expands in tonight into
Saturday. Today low pressure migrates south from western WA to
western OR. The associated deformation axis along the Cascades and
shortwave rounding its east side will work afternoon instability
to bring a threat of showers over the Cascades, as well as the
Blue Mountains to Central Panhandle Mountains. A few shower may
also form over the northern Panhandle mountains but the risk here
will be low.

This evening into the overnight the low pivots east-northeast
toward the OR/WA/ID border. Moisture wrapping into a developing
trowal in tandem with the low and shortwave rounding it will bring
expanding rain into southeast WA and lower elevations of the
central and southern ID Panhandle this evening. Overnight the rain
threat will expand west into the Columbia Basin and Waterville
Plateau and north into northeast WA and north ID.

By Saturday much of the region will have some threat of rain. Yet
the area which will have the steadier and broader threat of
precipitation will be within the vicinity of the trowal and
activity elsewhere will be more scattered on its fringes. Models
disagree precisely where that feature will lay, with some pushing
it further west into the Columbia Basin than others. If this
verifies it would allow for some decrease in the precipitation
across the southeast Saturday afternoon.

As for thunderstorm between tonight and Saturday there will be
some risk. Tonight, especially overnight, models indicate a ribbon
of elevated instability expanding into southeast WA and the ID
panhandle. This is represented by some high level total totals
between 35 and 40 C. So some embedded thunderstorms are possible
here. By Saturday afternoon some SBCAPE develops with the best
agreement across the ID Panhandle, northern mountains and
Cascades. But some models show some convective instability across
the Columbia Basin too. Overall there will be a threat of isolated
to locally scattered thunderstorms but nothing too organized is
expected, given the lack of significant shear or deep instability.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and Saturday, with the
coldest average temperature expected on Saturday with the trowal
and steadier precipitation threat in the region. Some locations may
not get out of the 50s or lower 60s Saturday afternoon. /J. Cote`

Saturday night through Monday...Looks like the weather will remain
on the cool and wet side during this period as the medium range
models are fairly consistent on ejecting Saturdays low into
Montana only to be swiftly replaced by another low dropping down
from the northwest. Given this pattern, the best chances of
precipitation on Saturday evening will be fixed over the Idaho
Panhandle due to the placement of the upper level cold pool.
Potential instability parameters suggest there will be a small
chance of thunderstorms early in the evening, however warming
aloft will eliminate any chance of thunderstorms during the late
evening and overnight hours. For Sunday the next low is expected
to cross the Cascades via SW British Columbia with the upper level
jet extending from Seattle to Mullan Pass per the 00z GFS. If this
verifies, any chance of precipitation will generally occur over
the northern half of the forecast area, or generally north of
Highway 2 in Washington and over the northern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. The Canadian and EC show a slightly different scenario
with the Canadian showing a much weaker shortwave trough remaining
over BC, while the EC takes this second low and pushes it to the
WA/OR border. Suffice it to say confidence is high there will be a
secondary low, however where it goes is questionable. No matter
what the case, this second low will be weaker than the Saturday
system and will contain less potential instability. It will also
contain mid-level westerly flow sans warm air advection. This
means there will be a sizable rain shadow in the lee of the
Cascades. Even where the rain is expected to occur, precipitation
amounts will be light.

For Monday night through Tuesday night...any semblance of a low
temporarily moves out of the region with either zonal flow or weak
ridging replacing it. This suggests dry weather will prevail and
temperatures will begin to warm. Speaking of temperatures,
readings for the latter half of the weekend will remain
significantly cooler than normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid
70s or nearly 10 degrees below normal. By Tuesday the jet will
shift north of the Canadian border with temperatures surging
toward normal values for the first time in nearly a week. fx

Wednesday through Friday: A dry zonal pattern is expected to
dominate this period with some weak ridging build into the region.
This will keep any chance of rain for the region close to non
existent. Temperatures will continue to creep warmer with highs
expected in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will range
from mid 40s to mid 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A low centered over western WA drops into western OR
between this morning and evening. A few -shra/-tsra will be a
risk near the Cascades and ID panhandle mountains. There is a risk
some may pass by EAT/OMK this afternoon too, but the risk is small.
The low pivots toward the OR/WA/ID border tonight into Saturday
morning, leading to an increasing rain threat for most TAF sites
after 01-05Z, though the best chances may not develop further
north near MWH/GEG/COE until after 06-09Z and EAT more likely will
remain dry. Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue, save
for near PUW/LWS where lower cigs are expected to drop toward
MVFR/lcl IFR conditions. But toward 12Z Saturday areas further
north will have a modest threat of seeing the flight category
drop below VFR. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041136
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
436 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: Shower chances linger around the
mountains before a broader rain threat expands in tonight into
Saturday. Today low pressure migrates south from western WA to
western OR. The associated deformation axis along the Cascades and
shortwave rounding its east side will work afternoon instability
to bring a threat of showers over the Cascades, as well as the
Blue Mountains to Central Panhandle Mountains. A few shower may
also form over the northern Panhandle mountains but the risk here
will be low.

This evening into the overnight the low pivots east-northeast
toward the OR/WA/ID border. Moisture wrapping into a developing
trowal in tandem with the low and shortwave rounding it will bring
expanding rain into southeast WA and lower elevations of the
central and southern ID Panhandle this evening. Overnight the rain
threat will expand west into the Columbia Basin and Waterville
Plateau and north into northeast WA and north ID.

By Saturday much of the region will have some threat of rain. Yet
the area which will have the steadier and broader threat of
precipitation will be within the vicinity of the trowal and
activity elsewhere will be more scattered on its fringes. Models
disagree precisely where that feature will lay, with some pushing
it further west into the Columbia Basin than others. If this
verifies it would allow for some decrease in the precipitation
across the southeast Saturday afternoon.

As for thunderstorm between tonight and Saturday there will be
some risk. Tonight, especially overnight, models indicate a ribbon
of elevated instability expanding into southeast WA and the ID
panhandle. This is represented by some high level total totals
between 35 and 40 C. So some embedded thunderstorms are possible
here. By Saturday afternoon some SBCAPE develops with the best
agreement across the ID Panhandle, northern mountains and
Cascades. But some models show some convective instability across
the Columbia Basin too. Overall there will be a threat of isolated
to locally scattered thunderstorms but nothing too organized is
expected, given the lack of significant shear or deep instability.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and Saturday, with the
coldest average temperature expected on Saturday with the trowal
and steadier precipitation threat in the region. Some locations may
not get out of the 50s or lower 60s Saturday afternoon. /J. Cote`

Saturday night through Monday...Looks like the weather will remain
on the cool and wet side during this period as the medium range
models are fairly consistent on ejecting Saturdays low into
Montana only to be swiftly replaced by another low dropping down
from the northwest. Given this pattern, the best chances of
precipitation on Saturday evening will be fixed over the Idaho
Panhandle due to the placement of the upper level cold pool.
Potential instability parameters suggest there will be a small
chance of thunderstorms early in the evening, however warming
aloft will eliminate any chance of thunderstorms during the late
evening and overnight hours. For Sunday the next low is expected
to cross the Cascades via SW British Columbia with the upper level
jet extending from Seattle to Mullan Pass per the 00z GFS. If this
verifies, any chance of precipitation will generally occur over
the northern half of the forecast area, or generally north of
Highway 2 in Washington and over the northern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. The Canadian and EC show a slightly different scenario
with the Canadian showing a much weaker shortwave trough remaining
over BC, while the EC takes this second low and pushes it to the
WA/OR border. Suffice it to say confidence is high there will be a
secondary low, however where it goes is questionable. No matter
what the case, this second low will be weaker than the Saturday
system and will contain less potential instability. It will also
contain mid-level westerly flow sans warm air advection. This
means there will be a sizable rain shadow in the lee of the
Cascades. Even where the rain is expected to occur, precipitation
amounts will be light.

For Monday night through Tuesday night...any semblance of a low
temporarily moves out of the region with either zonal flow or weak
ridging replacing it. This suggests dry weather will prevail and
temperatures will begin to warm. Speaking of temperatures,
readings for the latter half of the weekend will remain
significantly cooler than normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid
70s or nearly 10 degrees below normal. By Tuesday the jet will
shift north of the Canadian border with temperatures surging
toward normal values for the first time in nearly a week. fx

Wednesday through Friday: A dry zonal pattern is expected to
dominate this period with some weak ridging build into the region.
This will keep any chance of rain for the region close to non
existent. Temperatures will continue to creep warmer with highs
expected in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will range
from mid 40s to mid 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A low centered over western WA drops into western OR
between this morning and evening. A few -shra/-tsra will be a
risk near the Cascades and ID panhandle mountains. There is a risk
some may pass by EAT/OMK this afternoon too, but the risk is small.
The low pivots toward the OR/WA/ID border tonight into Saturday
morning, leading to an increasing rain threat for most TAF sites
after 01-05Z, though the best chances may not develop further
north near MWH/GEG/COE until after 06-09Z and EAT more likely will
remain dry. Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue, save
for near PUW/LWS where lower cigs are expected to drop toward
MVFR/lcl IFR conditions. But toward 12Z Saturday areas further
north will have a modest threat of seeing the flight category
drop below VFR. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 041006
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND INTO WESTERN OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING
AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR
SHOWERS ARE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND OREGON WITH NOT MUCH
ACTION ACROSS WESTERN WA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION ON
THE CWA...SOUTH OF KOLM. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY
WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXIT EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES INLAND. THE COAST SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT DOES WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE INTERIOR. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON LABOR DAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. 33

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN B.C. NEXT TUESDAY
WHICH MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
POPS ARE LOW AT 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE NUDGED UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE RIDGE MAY START TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL B.C. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WA COAST IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS MORNING.  THE MOIST AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MOSTLY STABLE THIS MORNING AND THE COMBINATION HAS GIVEN A MIXED BAG
OF CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN WA. SCT-BKN CIGS 3-6K OVER MOST
AREAS...BUT THERE ARE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND.
MOST OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AND/OR BURN OFF BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING. ANY LOWER CIGS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD NOT LAST PAST NOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 041006
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND INTO WESTERN OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING
AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR
SHOWERS ARE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND OREGON WITH NOT MUCH
ACTION ACROSS WESTERN WA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION ON
THE CWA...SOUTH OF KOLM. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY
WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXIT EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES INLAND. THE COAST SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT DOES WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE INTERIOR. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON LABOR DAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. 33

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN B.C. NEXT TUESDAY
WHICH MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
POPS ARE LOW AT 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE NUDGED UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE RIDGE MAY START TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL B.C. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WA COAST IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS MORNING.  THE MOIST AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MOSTLY STABLE THIS MORNING AND THE COMBINATION HAS GIVEN A MIXED BAG
OF CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN WA. SCT-BKN CIGS 3-6K OVER MOST
AREAS...BUT THERE ARE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND.
MOST OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AND/OR BURN OFF BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING. ANY LOWER CIGS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD NOT LAST PAST NOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040956
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
255 AM PDT FRI SEP  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. SOME
ENERGY IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW...AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME
DECENT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH
THESE THIS MORNING. INLAND IS LOOKING DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT IS LEADING TO SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO COOLING OVERNIGHT FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS THIS MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.
SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY IS TRYING TO SWING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER
OR TWO TRY TO FORM DOWN SOUTH THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON...AND BE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS INCREASING WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS IN CONCERT
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT FROM THE LOW. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SOME OF THESE SHOULD DRIFT OUT OVER
THE VALLEYS AS WELL.

THE LOW LINGERS SOME TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART
OF SATURDAY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS UNDER ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY BEFORE WARMING UP
CLOSE TO 70 OR THE LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING
SUNSHINE.

THE IMPROVING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CATCHING MOST OF THE COAST BUT MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND AREAS FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING  NEAR THE AREA...
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE DELAYING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION...BUT DETERIORATIONS STILL SEEM
PROBABLE...JUST MORE TOWARDS 12Z TO 15Z FRIDAY. EXPECT MOST
RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE BY 18Z FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 03Z SATURDAY BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DETERIORATIONS AT MANY TAF SITES AS WE APPROACH
12Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL GIVE
WAY TO CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 09Z SATURDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS TODAY. INCREASING LOW
PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALSO ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. A WEAK
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO A SUMMER-LIKE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE WIND
DOMINATED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 040956
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
255 AM PDT FRI SEP  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON TODAY...PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. SOME
ENERGY IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW...AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME
DECENT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH
THESE THIS MORNING. INLAND IS LOOKING DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT IS LEADING TO SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO COOLING OVERNIGHT FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS THIS MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.
SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY IS TRYING TO SWING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER
OR TWO TRY TO FORM DOWN SOUTH THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON...AND BE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS INCREASING WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS IN CONCERT
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT FROM THE LOW. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SOME OF THESE SHOULD DRIFT OUT OVER
THE VALLEYS AS WELL.

THE LOW LINGERS SOME TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND A GOOD PART
OF SATURDAY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS UNDER ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY BEFORE WARMING UP
CLOSE TO 70 OR THE LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING
SUNSHINE.

THE IMPROVING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CATCHING MOST OF THE COAST BUT MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND AREAS FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTHWARD. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NOTABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING  NEAR THE AREA...
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALLOWING IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE DELAYING
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION...BUT DETERIORATIONS STILL SEEM
PROBABLE...JUST MORE TOWARDS 12Z TO 15Z FRIDAY. EXPECT MOST
RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE BY 18Z FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 03Z SATURDAY BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DETERIORATIONS AT MANY TAF SITES AS WE APPROACH
12Z SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LIGHT WINDS
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL GIVE
WAY TO CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 09Z SATURDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS TODAY. INCREASING LOW
PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALSO ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. A WEAK
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO A SUMMER-LIKE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE WIND
DOMINATED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 040940
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
240 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday with a smaller chance of precipitation for
Sunday and Monday. Drier and warmer weather is expected to return by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: Shower chances linger around the
mountains before a broader rain threat expands in tonight into
Saturday. Today low pressure migrates south from western WA to
western OR. The associated deformation axis along the Cascades and
shortwave rounding its east side will work afternoon instability
to bring a threat of showers over the Cascades, as well as the
Blue Mountains to Central Panhandle Mountains. A few shower may
also form over the northern Panhandle mountains but the risk here
will be low.

This evening into the overnight the low pivots east-northeast
toward the OR/WA/ID border. Moisture wrapping into a developing
trowal in tandem with the low and shortwave rounding it will bring
expanding rain into southeast WA and lower elevations of the
central and southern ID Panhandle this evening. Overnight the rain
threat will expand west into the Columbia Basin and Waterville
Plateau and north into northeast WA and north ID.

By Saturday much of the region will have some threat of rain. Yet
the area which will have the steadier and broader threat of
precipitation will be within the vicinity of the trowal and
activity elsewhere will be more scattered on its fringes. Models
disagree precisely where that feature will lay, with some pushing
it further west into the Columbia Basin than others. If this
verifies it would allow for some decrease in the precipitation
across the southeast Saturday afternoon.

As for thunderstorm between tonight and Saturday there will be
some risk. Tonight, especially overnight, models indicate a ribbon
of elevated instability expanding into southeast WA and the ID
panhandle. This is represented by some high level total totals
between 35 and 40 C. So some embedded thunderstorms are possible
here. By Saturday afternoon some SBCAPE develops with the best
agreement across the ID Panhandle, northern mountains and
Cascades. But some models show some convective instability across
the Columbia Basin too. Overall there will be a threat of isolated
to locally scattered thunderstorms but nothing too organized is
expected, given the lack of significant shear or deep instability.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and Saturday, with the
coldest average temperature expected on Saturday with the trowal
and steadier precipitation threat in the region. Some locations may
not get out of the 50s or lower 60s Saturday afternoon. /J. Cote`

Saturday night through Monday...Looks like the weather will remain
on the cool and wet side during this period as the medium range
models are fairly consistent on ejecting Saturdays low into
Montana only to be swiftly replaced by another low dropping down
from the northwest. Given this pattern, the best chances of
precipitation on Saturday evening will be fixed over the Idaho
Panhandle due to the placement of the upper level cold pool.
Potential instability parameters suggest there will be a small
chance of thunderstorms early in the evening, however warming
aloft will eliminate any chance of thunderstorms during the late
evening and overnight hours. For Sunday the next low is expected
to cross the Cascades via SW British Columbia with the upper level
jet extending from Seattle to Mullan Pass per the 00z GFS. If this
verifies, any chance of precipitation will generally occur over
the northern half of the forecast area, or generally north of
Highway 2 in Washington and over the northern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. The Canadian and EC show a slightly different scenario
with the Canadian showing a much weaker shortwave trough remaining
over BC, while the EC takes this second low and pushes it to the
WA/OR border. Suffice it to say confidence is high there will be a
secondary low, however where it goes is questionable. No matter
what the case, this second low will be weaker than the Saturday
system and will contain less potential instability. It will also
contain mid-level westerly flow sans warm air advection. This
means there will be a sizable rain shadow in the lee of the
Cascades. Even where the rain is expected to occur, precipitation
amounts will be light.

For Monday night through Tuesday night...any semblance of a low
temporarily moves out of the region with either zonal flow or weak
ridging replacing it. This suggests dry weather will prevail and
temperatures will begin to warm. Speaking of temperatures,
readings for the latter half of the weekend will remain
significantly cooler than normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid
70s or nearly 10 degrees below normal. By Tuesday the jet will
shift north of the Canadian border with temperatures surging
toward normal values for the first time in nearly a week. fx

Wednesday through Friday: A dry zonal pattern is expected to
dominate this period with some weak ridging build into the region.
This will keep any chance of rain for the region close to non
existent. Temperatures will continue to creep warmer with highs
expected in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will range
from mid 40s to mid 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in isolated showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border. Convection is expected mainly over
the high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a
continuation of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north
overnight with some gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley
(KOMK) and less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next
precipitation expected to affect the TAF sites will begin after
00Z Saturday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 040940
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
240 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday with a smaller chance of precipitation for
Sunday and Monday. Drier and warmer weather is expected to return by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: Shower chances linger around the
mountains before a broader rain threat expands in tonight into
Saturday. Today low pressure migrates south from western WA to
western OR. The associated deformation axis along the Cascades and
shortwave rounding its east side will work afternoon instability
to bring a threat of showers over the Cascades, as well as the
Blue Mountains to Central Panhandle Mountains. A few shower may
also form over the northern Panhandle mountains but the risk here
will be low.

This evening into the overnight the low pivots east-northeast
toward the OR/WA/ID border. Moisture wrapping into a developing
trowal in tandem with the low and shortwave rounding it will bring
expanding rain into southeast WA and lower elevations of the
central and southern ID Panhandle this evening. Overnight the rain
threat will expand west into the Columbia Basin and Waterville
Plateau and north into northeast WA and north ID.

By Saturday much of the region will have some threat of rain. Yet
the area which will have the steadier and broader threat of
precipitation will be within the vicinity of the trowal and
activity elsewhere will be more scattered on its fringes. Models
disagree precisely where that feature will lay, with some pushing
it further west into the Columbia Basin than others. If this
verifies it would allow for some decrease in the precipitation
across the southeast Saturday afternoon.

As for thunderstorm between tonight and Saturday there will be
some risk. Tonight, especially overnight, models indicate a ribbon
of elevated instability expanding into southeast WA and the ID
panhandle. This is represented by some high level total totals
between 35 and 40 C. So some embedded thunderstorms are possible
here. By Saturday afternoon some SBCAPE develops with the best
agreement across the ID Panhandle, northern mountains and
Cascades. But some models show some convective instability across
the Columbia Basin too. Overall there will be a threat of isolated
to locally scattered thunderstorms but nothing too organized is
expected, given the lack of significant shear or deep instability.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and Saturday, with the
coldest average temperature expected on Saturday with the trowal
and steadier precipitation threat in the region. Some locations may
not get out of the 50s or lower 60s Saturday afternoon. /J. Cote`

Saturday night through Monday...Looks like the weather will remain
on the cool and wet side during this period as the medium range
models are fairly consistent on ejecting Saturdays low into
Montana only to be swiftly replaced by another low dropping down
from the northwest. Given this pattern, the best chances of
precipitation on Saturday evening will be fixed over the Idaho
Panhandle due to the placement of the upper level cold pool.
Potential instability parameters suggest there will be a small
chance of thunderstorms early in the evening, however warming
aloft will eliminate any chance of thunderstorms during the late
evening and overnight hours. For Sunday the next low is expected
to cross the Cascades via SW British Columbia with the upper level
jet extending from Seattle to Mullan Pass per the 00z GFS. If this
verifies, any chance of precipitation will generally occur over
the northern half of the forecast area, or generally north of
Highway 2 in Washington and over the northern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. The Canadian and EC show a slightly different scenario
with the Canadian showing a much weaker shortwave trough remaining
over BC, while the EC takes this second low and pushes it to the
WA/OR border. Suffice it to say confidence is high there will be a
secondary low, however where it goes is questionable. No matter
what the case, this second low will be weaker than the Saturday
system and will contain less potential instability. It will also
contain mid-level westerly flow sans warm air advection. This
means there will be a sizable rain shadow in the lee of the
Cascades. Even where the rain is expected to occur, precipitation
amounts will be light.

For Monday night through Tuesday night...any semblance of a low
temporarily moves out of the region with either zonal flow or weak
ridging replacing it. This suggests dry weather will prevail and
temperatures will begin to warm. Speaking of temperatures,
readings for the latter half of the weekend will remain
significantly cooler than normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid
70s or nearly 10 degrees below normal. By Tuesday the jet will
shift north of the Canadian border with temperatures surging
toward normal values for the first time in nearly a week. fx

Wednesday through Friday: A dry zonal pattern is expected to
dominate this period with some weak ridging build into the region.
This will keep any chance of rain for the region close to non
existent. Temperatures will continue to creep warmer with highs
expected in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will range
from mid 40s to mid 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in isolated showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border. Convection is expected mainly over
the high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a
continuation of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north
overnight with some gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley
(KOMK) and less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next
precipitation expected to affect the TAF sites will begin after
00Z Saturday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  48  57  46  66  45 /   0  60  70  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  48  56  46  65  44 /   0  70  70  40  10  10
Pullman        69  46  55  45  64  43 /  10  70  70  40  10  10
Lewiston       74  52  59  48  72  50 /  10  70  60  30  10  10
Colville       72  49  61  44  67  41 /   0  40  70  40  20  20
Sandpoint      68  47  58  45  64  40 /  10  60  70  60  20  20
Kellogg        65  46  55  42  63  40 /  30  60  70  60  30  20
Moses Lake     74  53  72  48  75  48 /   0  20  40  10  10  10
Wenatchee      73  53  72  51  75  51 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           72  49  74  45  76  45 /  20  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 040520
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1020 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower activity has diminished this evening now that daytime
surface based instability has ended and the dry slot is moving
over much of eastern WA and north ID. The only area where a few
showers are lingering is in extreme NE WA along the international
border and right along the Cascade crest. There is still a chance
of showers tonight for the north Cascades where the moisture is
rotating around the upper low. There is a very low probability of
a thunderstorm or two as there is some mid level instability that
could be tapped into by a passing vort max circling the low.
Confidence is not sufficient to place thunder in the weather
grids. Some adjustments were made to overnight lows to brings the
northern valleys lower than last nights observed lows. With
clearing skies in the dry slot and generally light winds, we
should see readings a few degrees below the previous overnight
lows. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in isolated showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border. Convection is expected mainly over
the high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a
continuation of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north
overnight with some gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley
(KOMK) and less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next
precipitation expected to affect the TAF sites will begin after
00Z Saturday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 040501
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1000 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT...THEN OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM...LEADING TO A SUNNY
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY LABOR DAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 04Z. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW NORTH
OF SEATTLE. TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WERE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

00Z MODELS CONTINUING WITH THE IDEA OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH ENDING UP OVER WESTERN OREGON BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE A
QUICK UPDATE AND ADD SOME POPS SOUTH OF SEATTLE. BY 06Z SATURDAY LOW
WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR KLAMATH FALLS WITH DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BEGINNING OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE LOW KICKING OFF TO THE EAST
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST REACHING THE
NORTHERN TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BU 00Z SUNDAY. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SPREADING INTO MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. TRAILING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

DRYING TREND ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EAST OF THE
AREA AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
FELTON


.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN ELUSIVE SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. THE 18Z GFS NOW SHOWS A
HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER W WA ON LABOR DAY FOR WHAT
COULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE
AND BRINGS SOME PRECIP ALMOST TO THE COAST. IN GENERAL THE MODELS
STILL SHOW SOME WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW...WHICH AT THIS
POINT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING PRECIP TO W WA ON ANY OF THE DAYS.
EARLIER RUNS HAD A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
AROUND MID-WEEK...BUT NOW THAT HAS EVOLVED TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS. SO FOR NOW THE LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED... CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTH INTO OREGON
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM
5000 TO 6500 FEET...MAINLY BROKEN FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH SHOWERS...MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BKN
BUT GENERALLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME STABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN BROKEN BUT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL WORK SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 040501
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1000 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT...THEN OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM...LEADING TO A SUNNY
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY LABOR DAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 04Z. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW NORTH
OF SEATTLE. TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WERE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

00Z MODELS CONTINUING WITH THE IDEA OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH ENDING UP OVER WESTERN OREGON BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE A
QUICK UPDATE AND ADD SOME POPS SOUTH OF SEATTLE. BY 06Z SATURDAY LOW
WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR KLAMATH FALLS WITH DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BEGINNING OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE LOW KICKING OFF TO THE EAST
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST REACHING THE
NORTHERN TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BU 00Z SUNDAY. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SPREADING INTO MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. TRAILING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

DRYING TREND ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EAST OF THE
AREA AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
FELTON


.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN ELUSIVE SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. THE 18Z GFS NOW SHOWS A
HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER W WA ON LABOR DAY FOR WHAT
COULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE
AND BRINGS SOME PRECIP ALMOST TO THE COAST. IN GENERAL THE MODELS
STILL SHOW SOME WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW...WHICH AT THIS
POINT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING PRECIP TO W WA ON ANY OF THE DAYS.
EARLIER RUNS HAD A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
AROUND MID-WEEK...BUT NOW THAT HAS EVOLVED TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS. SO FOR NOW THE LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED... CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTH INTO OREGON
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM
5000 TO 6500 FEET...MAINLY BROKEN FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH SHOWERS...MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BKN
BUT GENERALLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME STABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN BROKEN BUT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL WORK SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 040501
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1000 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT...THEN OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM...LEADING TO A SUNNY
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY LABOR DAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 04Z. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW NORTH
OF SEATTLE. TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WERE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

00Z MODELS CONTINUING WITH THE IDEA OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH ENDING UP OVER WESTERN OREGON BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE A
QUICK UPDATE AND ADD SOME POPS SOUTH OF SEATTLE. BY 06Z SATURDAY LOW
WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR KLAMATH FALLS WITH DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BEGINNING OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE LOW KICKING OFF TO THE EAST
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST REACHING THE
NORTHERN TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BU 00Z SUNDAY. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SPREADING INTO MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. TRAILING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

DRYING TREND ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EAST OF THE
AREA AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
FELTON


.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN ELUSIVE SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. THE 18Z GFS NOW SHOWS A
HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER W WA ON LABOR DAY FOR WHAT
COULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE
AND BRINGS SOME PRECIP ALMOST TO THE COAST. IN GENERAL THE MODELS
STILL SHOW SOME WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW...WHICH AT THIS
POINT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING PRECIP TO W WA ON ANY OF THE DAYS.
EARLIER RUNS HAD A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
AROUND MID-WEEK...BUT NOW THAT HAS EVOLVED TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS. SO FOR NOW THE LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED... CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTH INTO OREGON
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM
5000 TO 6500 FEET...MAINLY BROKEN FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH SHOWERS...MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BKN
BUT GENERALLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME STABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN BROKEN BUT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL WORK SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 040501
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1000 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT...THEN OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM...LEADING TO A SUNNY
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY LABOR DAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 04Z. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW NORTH
OF SEATTLE. TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WERE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

00Z MODELS CONTINUING WITH THE IDEA OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH ENDING UP OVER WESTERN OREGON BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE A
QUICK UPDATE AND ADD SOME POPS SOUTH OF SEATTLE. BY 06Z SATURDAY LOW
WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR KLAMATH FALLS WITH DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BEGINNING OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH THE LOW KICKING OFF TO THE EAST
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST REACHING THE
NORTHERN TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BU 00Z SUNDAY. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SPREADING INTO MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. TRAILING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

DRYING TREND ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EAST OF THE
AREA AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
FELTON


.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN ELUSIVE SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. THE 18Z GFS NOW SHOWS A
HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER W WA ON LABOR DAY FOR WHAT
COULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE
AND BRINGS SOME PRECIP ALMOST TO THE COAST. IN GENERAL THE MODELS
STILL SHOW SOME WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW...WHICH AT THIS
POINT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING PRECIP TO W WA ON ANY OF THE DAYS.
EARLIER RUNS HAD A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
AROUND MID-WEEK...BUT NOW THAT HAS EVOLVED TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS. SO FOR NOW THE LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED... CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTH INTO OREGON
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM
5000 TO 6500 FEET...MAINLY BROKEN FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY NORTHWARD.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH SHOWERS...MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BKN
BUT GENERALLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME STABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN BROKEN BUT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL WORK SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 040410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
910 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower activity has diminished this evening now that daytime
surface based instability has ended and the dry slot is moving
over much of eastern WA and north ID. The only area where a few
showers are lingering is in extreme NE WA along the international
border and right along the Cascade crest. There is still a chance
of showers tonight for the north Cascades where the moisture is
rotating around the upper low. There is a very low probability of
a thunderstorm or two as there is some mid level instability that
could be tapped into by a passing vort max circling the low.
Confidence is not sufficient to place thunder in the weather
grids. Some adjustments were made to overnight lows to brings the
northern valleys lower than last nights observed lows. With
clearing skies in the dry slot and generally light winds, we
should see readings a few degrees below the previous overnight
lows. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 040410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
910 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower activity has diminished this evening now that daytime
surface based instability has ended and the dry slot is moving
over much of eastern WA and north ID. The only area where a few
showers are lingering is in extreme NE WA along the international
border and right along the Cascade crest. There is still a chance
of showers tonight for the north Cascades where the moisture is
rotating around the upper low. There is a very low probability of
a thunderstorm or two as there is some mid level instability that
could be tapped into by a passing vort max circling the low.
Confidence is not sufficient to place thunder in the weather
grids. Some adjustments were made to overnight lows to brings the
northern valleys lower than last nights observed lows. With
clearing skies in the dry slot and generally light winds, we
should see readings a few degrees below the previous overnight
lows. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 040410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
910 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower activity has diminished this evening now that daytime
surface based instability has ended and the dry slot is moving
over much of eastern WA and north ID. The only area where a few
showers are lingering is in extreme NE WA along the international
border and right along the Cascade crest. There is still a chance
of showers tonight for the north Cascades where the moisture is
rotating around the upper low. There is a very low probability of
a thunderstorm or two as there is some mid level instability that
could be tapped into by a passing vort max circling the low.
Confidence is not sufficient to place thunder in the weather
grids. Some adjustments were made to overnight lows to brings the
northern valleys lower than last nights observed lows. With
clearing skies in the dry slot and generally light winds, we
should see readings a few degrees below the previous overnight
lows. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 040410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
910 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower activity has diminished this evening now that daytime
surface based instability has ended and the dry slot is moving
over much of eastern WA and north ID. The only area where a few
showers are lingering is in extreme NE WA along the international
border and right along the Cascade crest. There is still a chance
of showers tonight for the north Cascades where the moisture is
rotating around the upper low. There is a very low probability of
a thunderstorm or two as there is some mid level instability that
could be tapped into by a passing vort max circling the low.
Confidence is not sufficient to place thunder in the weather
grids. Some adjustments were made to overnight lows to brings the
northern valleys lower than last nights observed lows. With
clearing skies in the dry slot and generally light winds, we
should see readings a few degrees below the previous overnight
lows. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 040410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
910 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower activity has diminished this evening now that daytime
surface based instability has ended and the dry slot is moving
over much of eastern WA and north ID. The only area where a few
showers are lingering is in extreme NE WA along the international
border and right along the Cascade crest. There is still a chance
of showers tonight for the north Cascades where the moisture is
rotating around the upper low. There is a very low probability of
a thunderstorm or two as there is some mid level instability that
could be tapped into by a passing vort max circling the low.
Confidence is not sufficient to place thunder in the weather
grids. Some adjustments were made to overnight lows to brings the
northern valleys lower than last nights observed lows. With
clearing skies in the dry slot and generally light winds, we
should see readings a few degrees below the previous overnight
lows. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 040410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
910 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower activity has diminished this evening now that daytime
surface based instability has ended and the dry slot is moving
over much of eastern WA and north ID. The only area where a few
showers are lingering is in extreme NE WA along the international
border and right along the Cascade crest. There is still a chance
of showers tonight for the north Cascades where the moisture is
rotating around the upper low. There is a very low probability of
a thunderstorm or two as there is some mid level instability that
could be tapped into by a passing vort max circling the low.
Confidence is not sufficient to place thunder in the weather
grids. Some adjustments were made to overnight lows to brings the
northern valleys lower than last nights observed lows. With
clearing skies in the dry slot and generally light winds, we
should see readings a few degrees below the previous overnight
lows. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 040410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
910 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower activity has diminished this evening now that daytime
surface based instability has ended and the dry slot is moving
over much of eastern WA and north ID. The only area where a few
showers are lingering is in extreme NE WA along the international
border and right along the Cascade crest. There is still a chance
of showers tonight for the north Cascades where the moisture is
rotating around the upper low. There is a very low probability of
a thunderstorm or two as there is some mid level instability that
could be tapped into by a passing vort max circling the low.
Confidence is not sufficient to place thunder in the weather
grids. Some adjustments were made to overnight lows to brings the
northern valleys lower than last nights observed lows. With
clearing skies in the dry slot and generally light winds, we
should see readings a few degrees below the previous overnight
lows. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 040410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
910 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower activity has diminished this evening now that daytime
surface based instability has ended and the dry slot is moving
over much of eastern WA and north ID. The only area where a few
showers are lingering is in extreme NE WA along the international
border and right along the Cascade crest. There is still a chance
of showers tonight for the north Cascades where the moisture is
rotating around the upper low. There is a very low probability of
a thunderstorm or two as there is some mid level instability that
could be tapped into by a passing vort max circling the low.
Confidence is not sufficient to place thunder in the weather
grids. Some adjustments were made to overnight lows to brings the
northern valleys lower than last nights observed lows. With
clearing skies in the dry slot and generally light winds, we
should see readings a few degrees below the previous overnight
lows. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040400
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INLAND BUT ARE BECOMING
LESS INTENSE AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS...SEEN AS COLD TOP CELLS ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP.
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WITH
THE CENTER OF COLD POOL ALOFT NEAR THE COAST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM. BUT
NEW MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER VERTICAL PROFILE FRI AFTERNOON SO
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMITED BY MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING DOWN IN
EUGENE WITH IFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS PARTICULARLY LOW IN
THAT SCENARIO. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SEAS ARE AROUND
6 FT AND DROPPING SLOWLY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
LOOK AS MARGINAL AS POSSIBLE IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 040400
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INLAND BUT ARE BECOMING
LESS INTENSE AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS...SEEN AS COLD TOP CELLS ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP.
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WITH
THE CENTER OF COLD POOL ALOFT NEAR THE COAST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM. BUT
NEW MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER VERTICAL PROFILE FRI AFTERNOON SO
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMITED BY MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING DOWN IN
EUGENE WITH IFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS PARTICULARLY LOW IN
THAT SCENARIO. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BOWEN/64

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SEAS ARE AROUND
6 FT AND DROPPING SLOWLY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
LOOK AS MARGINAL AS POSSIBLE IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 032340
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...An upper level trough/closed low will
impact the Inland NW through Saturday with several aspects of this
system to monitor. The center of a closed low will track from near
Vancouver Island today before dropping south into western Oregon
on Friday...before tracking across central and NE Oregon Fri night
and finally into central Idaho Saturday.

Tonight/Friday:

...Patchy frost tonight northern valleys...

Initially with the low tracking west of the region tonight into
Friday the best instability will lie over the Cascades where
scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms is
expected. The highest coverage of showers will occur during peak
heating hours. A dry slot coming around the low will track across
Eastern Washington tonight into Friday which combined with light
winds will result in strong radiational cooling for the northern
valleys. Colder pockets such as Republic, Chewelah, Deer Park,
Springdale, and Priest Lake will likely drop to near the freezing
mark. Also as the low drops into western Oregon on Friday
northerly pressure gradients increase which will result in breezy
winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench (Sandpoint,
Coeur D`Alene areas). This will result in elevated fire weather
concerns for the Okanogan Valley but not to the degree where
highlights are warranted.

Friday night/Saturday:

...Wetting rain likely across Eastern Washington and North
Idaho...

As the closed low tracks across Oregon Friday night into Central
Idaho on Saturday a deformation axis sets up over Eastern
Washington and North Idaho resulting in a swath of steady rain.
Differences remain however between the models regarding the
precise strength and placement of this rain band. The ECMWF and
GEM models have a deeper and further north track giving Eastern
Washington and the north Idaho Panhandle the brunt of the rain
mainly along and east of a line from Colville to Ritzville...with
as much as 0.50-1.25 inches of qpf. The GFS is a bit further south
and weaker with the low with the Idaho Panhandle getting the
brunt with .25-.50 inches of qpf with lighter amounts over
Eastern WA. With the ECMWF consistent with its solution over the
past 3 runs and with the SREF supporting a further north low track
forecast favors the wetter solution for Eastern WA. That said
forecast temperatures were cooled and rainfall amounts were
increased. There may also be a convective component to the precip
amounts Saturday afternoon which could influence rain amounts.
Omak, Grand Coulee, and Moses Lake westward to the Cascade crest
are expected to be too far west to receive rain from this
stratiform event. JW

Saturday night through early Tuesday morning...Longwave trot with
various synoptic size and smaller systems passing through it mark
this forecast interval with below normal temperatures and various
pops and QPF amounts to assigned to systems making the trek
through the area. Significant systems to note include one exiting
extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho Saturday night which is
followed up with brief shortwave ridging for Sunday ahead of yet
another mesoscale system that is over the Washington Cascades and
close vicinity at that same time. That system passes to the south
and east early Sunday Evening and exits late in the day Monday.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning the long-wave trof
translates east enough to allow more of a drier northwest/north
flow ahead of a positively tilted ridge extending from off the
coast up through Southern British Columbia which allows for a
lowering of pops and some warming in temperatures. /Pelatti


Tues through Thurs: A dry, quick moving, frontal passage Tues
will produce broken to overcast skies...followed by swift westerly
steering flow. With a dry air mass accompanying these features,
it`ll be tough to get any pcpn, especially given the lack of deep
instability. This westerly flow is, however, favorable for gusty
winds in the Cascade gaps. Frontal passage number two will reach
the Pac Nw Thurs with conditions similar to the Tues front. bZ

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 032340
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...An upper level trough/closed low will
impact the Inland NW through Saturday with several aspects of this
system to monitor. The center of a closed low will track from near
Vancouver Island today before dropping south into western Oregon
on Friday...before tracking across central and NE Oregon Fri night
and finally into central Idaho Saturday.

Tonight/Friday:

...Patchy frost tonight northern valleys...

Initially with the low tracking west of the region tonight into
Friday the best instability will lie over the Cascades where
scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms is
expected. The highest coverage of showers will occur during peak
heating hours. A dry slot coming around the low will track across
Eastern Washington tonight into Friday which combined with light
winds will result in strong radiational cooling for the northern
valleys. Colder pockets such as Republic, Chewelah, Deer Park,
Springdale, and Priest Lake will likely drop to near the freezing
mark. Also as the low drops into western Oregon on Friday
northerly pressure gradients increase which will result in breezy
winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench (Sandpoint,
Coeur D`Alene areas). This will result in elevated fire weather
concerns for the Okanogan Valley but not to the degree where
highlights are warranted.

Friday night/Saturday:

...Wetting rain likely across Eastern Washington and North
Idaho...

As the closed low tracks across Oregon Friday night into Central
Idaho on Saturday a deformation axis sets up over Eastern
Washington and North Idaho resulting in a swath of steady rain.
Differences remain however between the models regarding the
precise strength and placement of this rain band. The ECMWF and
GEM models have a deeper and further north track giving Eastern
Washington and the north Idaho Panhandle the brunt of the rain
mainly along and east of a line from Colville to Ritzville...with
as much as 0.50-1.25 inches of qpf. The GFS is a bit further south
and weaker with the low with the Idaho Panhandle getting the
brunt with .25-.50 inches of qpf with lighter amounts over
Eastern WA. With the ECMWF consistent with its solution over the
past 3 runs and with the SREF supporting a further north low track
forecast favors the wetter solution for Eastern WA. That said
forecast temperatures were cooled and rainfall amounts were
increased. There may also be a convective component to the precip
amounts Saturday afternoon which could influence rain amounts.
Omak, Grand Coulee, and Moses Lake westward to the Cascade crest
are expected to be too far west to receive rain from this
stratiform event. JW

Saturday night through early Tuesday morning...Longwave trot with
various synoptic size and smaller systems passing through it mark
this forecast interval with below normal temperatures and various
pops and QPF amounts to assigned to systems making the trek
through the area. Significant systems to note include one exiting
extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho Saturday night which is
followed up with brief shortwave ridging for Sunday ahead of yet
another mesoscale system that is over the Washington Cascades and
close vicinity at that same time. That system passes to the south
and east early Sunday Evening and exits late in the day Monday.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning the long-wave trof
translates east enough to allow more of a drier northwest/north
flow ahead of a positively tilted ridge extending from off the
coast up through Southern British Columbia which allows for a
lowering of pops and some warming in temperatures. /Pelatti


Tues through Thurs: A dry, quick moving, frontal passage Tues
will produce broken to overcast skies...followed by swift westerly
steering flow. With a dry air mass accompanying these features,
it`ll be tough to get any pcpn, especially given the lack of deep
instability. This westerly flow is, however, favorable for gusty
winds in the Cascade gaps. Frontal passage number two will reach
the Pac Nw Thurs with conditions similar to the Tues front. bZ

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 032340
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...An upper level trough/closed low will
impact the Inland NW through Saturday with several aspects of this
system to monitor. The center of a closed low will track from near
Vancouver Island today before dropping south into western Oregon
on Friday...before tracking across central and NE Oregon Fri night
and finally into central Idaho Saturday.

Tonight/Friday:

...Patchy frost tonight northern valleys...

Initially with the low tracking west of the region tonight into
Friday the best instability will lie over the Cascades where
scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms is
expected. The highest coverage of showers will occur during peak
heating hours. A dry slot coming around the low will track across
Eastern Washington tonight into Friday which combined with light
winds will result in strong radiational cooling for the northern
valleys. Colder pockets such as Republic, Chewelah, Deer Park,
Springdale, and Priest Lake will likely drop to near the freezing
mark. Also as the low drops into western Oregon on Friday
northerly pressure gradients increase which will result in breezy
winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench (Sandpoint,
Coeur D`Alene areas). This will result in elevated fire weather
concerns for the Okanogan Valley but not to the degree where
highlights are warranted.

Friday night/Saturday:

...Wetting rain likely across Eastern Washington and North
Idaho...

As the closed low tracks across Oregon Friday night into Central
Idaho on Saturday a deformation axis sets up over Eastern
Washington and North Idaho resulting in a swath of steady rain.
Differences remain however between the models regarding the
precise strength and placement of this rain band. The ECMWF and
GEM models have a deeper and further north track giving Eastern
Washington and the north Idaho Panhandle the brunt of the rain
mainly along and east of a line from Colville to Ritzville...with
as much as 0.50-1.25 inches of qpf. The GFS is a bit further south
and weaker with the low with the Idaho Panhandle getting the
brunt with .25-.50 inches of qpf with lighter amounts over
Eastern WA. With the ECMWF consistent with its solution over the
past 3 runs and with the SREF supporting a further north low track
forecast favors the wetter solution for Eastern WA. That said
forecast temperatures were cooled and rainfall amounts were
increased. There may also be a convective component to the precip
amounts Saturday afternoon which could influence rain amounts.
Omak, Grand Coulee, and Moses Lake westward to the Cascade crest
are expected to be too far west to receive rain from this
stratiform event. JW

Saturday night through early Tuesday morning...Longwave trot with
various synoptic size and smaller systems passing through it mark
this forecast interval with below normal temperatures and various
pops and QPF amounts to assigned to systems making the trek
through the area. Significant systems to note include one exiting
extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho Saturday night which is
followed up with brief shortwave ridging for Sunday ahead of yet
another mesoscale system that is over the Washington Cascades and
close vicinity at that same time. That system passes to the south
and east early Sunday Evening and exits late in the day Monday.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning the long-wave trof
translates east enough to allow more of a drier northwest/north
flow ahead of a positively tilted ridge extending from off the
coast up through Southern British Columbia which allows for a
lowering of pops and some warming in temperatures. /Pelatti


Tues through Thurs: A dry, quick moving, frontal passage Tues
will produce broken to overcast skies...followed by swift westerly
steering flow. With a dry air mass accompanying these features,
it`ll be tough to get any pcpn, especially given the lack of deep
instability. This westerly flow is, however, favorable for gusty
winds in the Cascade gaps. Frontal passage number two will reach
the Pac Nw Thurs with conditions similar to the Tues front. bZ

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington will drop
south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered showers
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the Cascades
and near the Canadian border through this evening before activity
decreases after sunset. Convection is expected mainly over the
high terrain with the TAF sites remaining dry with a continuation
of VFR conditions. Winds will shift to the north overnight with
stronger gusty winds expected down the Okanogan valley (KOMK) and
less so down the Purcell Trench (KCOE). The next precipitation
expected to affect the TAF sites will begin late Friday. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 032252
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT...THEN OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM...LEADING TO A SUNNY
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY LABOR DAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
STILL OVER SW B.C. AS OF 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS OVER W WA
REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THERE HAD BEEN
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING UP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CELL ECHO
TOPS STILL SHOOTING ABOVE 16KFT IN SPOTS...SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY DEVELOPING. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ABOUT TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT...SO
LACKING THAT SOURCE OF FORCING THE ONLY THING LEFT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS IS AIR MASS INSTABILITY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS S...AND DRIER N FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
LOW. HOWEVER IF THE LOW TAKES LONGER THAN EXPECTED TO DEPART THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
GRADUAL CLEARING BEHIND THE LOW STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD AIR MASS FROM THE LOW WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD TONIGHT SO LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE COLDEST SPOTS LIKE OVER
THE SW INTERIOR COULD SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 30S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY FOR A
SUNNY AND WARMER DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT...BUT ONLY TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS OREGON TO THE E ON SATURDAY...NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN OVER W WA ON SUNDAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR
170W AT 3 PM. THE 12Z GFS TIMING BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN A LITTLE RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEAK
FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH
TIME WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN ELUSIVE SO
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. THE 18Z GFS NOW SHOWS A HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER W WA ON LABOR DAY FOR WHAT COULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE AND BRINGS SOME
PRECIP ALMOST TO THE COAST. IN GENERAL THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT MAY OR
MAY NOT BRING PRECIP TO W WA ON ANY OF THE DAYS. EARLIER RUNS HAD A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AROUND MID-WEEK...BUT
NOW THAT HAS EVOLVED TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER 500 MB
HEIGHTS. SO FOR NOW THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRY
AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTH INTO OREGON
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 6500
FEET...MAINLY BROKEN OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTH INTERIOR. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THE VFR DECK TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SOUTH SOUND AND SOUTH INTERIOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM KSHN THROUGH
KAWO INTO THE NORTH CASCADES IS LIKELY THE BEST BET FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM...HAVING ALREADY PRODUCED A COUPLE
OF CELLS WITH LIGHTNING OVER HOOD CANAL AND JUST NORTH EAST OF KAWO.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH SHOWERS...MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING BKN BUT GENERALLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME STABLE LATE IN THE EVENING.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...A BAND
MOVING INTO THE KITSAP PENINSULA AT 2230Z WILL MOVE INTO THE METRO
AREA AFFECTING BOTH KBFI AND KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS LINE HAS BEEN PRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/LIGHTING AND
GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BROKEN BUT VFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY LATE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL WORK SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREA WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS POSSIBLE. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 032252
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT...THEN OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM...LEADING TO A SUNNY
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY LABOR DAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
STILL OVER SW B.C. AS OF 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS OVER W WA
REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THERE HAD BEEN
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING UP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CELL ECHO
TOPS STILL SHOOTING ABOVE 16KFT IN SPOTS...SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY DEVELOPING. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ABOUT TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT...SO
LACKING THAT SOURCE OF FORCING THE ONLY THING LEFT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS IS AIR MASS INSTABILITY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS S...AND DRIER N FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
LOW. HOWEVER IF THE LOW TAKES LONGER THAN EXPECTED TO DEPART THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
GRADUAL CLEARING BEHIND THE LOW STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD AIR MASS FROM THE LOW WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD TONIGHT SO LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE COLDEST SPOTS LIKE OVER
THE SW INTERIOR COULD SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 30S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY FOR A
SUNNY AND WARMER DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT...BUT ONLY TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS OREGON TO THE E ON SATURDAY...NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN OVER W WA ON SUNDAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR
170W AT 3 PM. THE 12Z GFS TIMING BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN A LITTLE RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH THE WEAK
FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH
TIME WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN ELUSIVE SO
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. THE 18Z GFS NOW SHOWS A HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER W WA ON LABOR DAY FOR WHAT COULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE AND BRINGS SOME
PRECIP ALMOST TO THE COAST. IN GENERAL THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT MAY OR
MAY NOT BRING PRECIP TO W WA ON ANY OF THE DAYS. EARLIER RUNS HAD A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AROUND MID-WEEK...BUT
NOW THAT HAS EVOLVED TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER 500 MB
HEIGHTS. SO FOR NOW THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRY
AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTH INTO OREGON
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 6500
FEET...MAINLY BROKEN OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTH INTERIOR. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THE VFR DECK TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SOUTH SOUND AND SOUTH INTERIOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM KSHN THROUGH
KAWO INTO THE NORTH CASCADES IS LIKELY THE BEST BET FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM...HAVING ALREADY PRODUCED A COUPLE
OF CELLS WITH LIGHTNING OVER HOOD CANAL AND JUST NORTH EAST OF KAWO.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH SHOWERS...MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING BKN BUT GENERALLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME STABLE LATE IN THE EVENING.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...A BAND
MOVING INTO THE KITSAP PENINSULA AT 2230Z WILL MOVE INTO THE METRO
AREA AFFECTING BOTH KBFI AND KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS LINE HAS BEEN PRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/LIGHTING AND
GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BROKEN BUT VFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY LATE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL WORK SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREA WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS POSSIBLE. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 032139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
239 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...An upper level trough/closed low will
impact the Inland NW through Saturday with several aspects of this
system to monitor. The center of a closed low will track from near
Vancouver Island today before dropping south into western Oregon
on Friday...before tracking across central and NE Oregon Fri night
and finally into central Idaho Saturday.

Tonight/Friday:

...Patchy frost tonight northern valleys...

Initially with the low tracking west of the region tonight into
Friday the best instability will lie over the Cascades where
scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms is
expected. The highest coverage of showers will occur during peak
heating hours. A dry slot coming around the low will track across
Eastern Washington tonight into Friday which combined with light
winds will result in strong raditional cooling for the northern
valleys. Colder pockets such as Republic, Chewelah, Deer Park,
Springdale, and Priest Lake will likely drop to near the freezing
mark. Also as the low drops into western Oregon on Friday
northerly pressure gradients increase which will result in breezy
winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench (Sandpoint,
Coeur D`Alene areas). This will result in elevated fire weather
concerns for the Okanogan Valley but not to the degree where
highlights are warranted.

Friday night/Saturday:

...Wetting rain likely across Eastern Washington and North
Idaho...

As the closed low tracks across Oregon Friday night into Central
Idaho on Saturday a deformation axis sets up over Eastern
Washington and North Idaho resulting in a swath of steady rain.
Differences remain however between the models regarding the
precise strength and placement of this rain band. The ECMWF and
GEM models have a deeper and further north track giving Eastern
Washington and the north Idaho Panhandle the brunt of the rain
mainly along and east of a line from Colville to Ritzville...with
as much as 0.50-1.25 inches of qpf. The GFS is a bit further south
and weaker with the low with the Idaho Panhandle gitting the brunt
with .25-.50 inches of qpf with ligher amounts over Eastern WA.
With the ECMWF consitent with its solution over the past 3 runs
and with the SREF supporting a further north low track forecast
favors the wetter solution for Eastern WA. That said forecast
temperatures were cooled and rainfall amounts were increased.
There may also be a convective component to the precip amounts
Saturday afternoon which could influence rain amounts.  Omak,
Grand Coulee, and Moses Lake westward to the Cascade crest are
expected to be too far west to receive rain from this stratiform
event. JW

Saturday night through early Tuesday morning...Longwave trof with
various synoptic size and smaller systems passing through it mark
this forecast interval with below normal temperatures and various
pops and QPF amounts to assigned to systems making the trek
through the area. Significant systems to note include one exiting
extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho Saturday night which is
followed up with brief shortwave ridging for Sunday ahead of yet
another mesoscale system that is over the Washington Cascades and
close vicinity at that same time. That system passes to the south
and east early Sunday Evening and exits late in the day Monday.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning the long-wave trof
translates east enough to allow more of a drier northwest/north
flow ahead of a positively tilted ridge extending from off the
coast up through Southern British Columbia which allows for a
lowering of pops and some warming in temperatures. /Pelatti


Tues through Thurs: A dry, quick moving, frontal passage Tues
will produce broken to overcast skies...followed by swift westerly
steering flow. With a dry air mass accompanying these features,
it`ll be tough to get any pcpn, especially given the lack of deep
instability. This westerly flow is, however, favorable for gusty
winds in the Cascade gaps. Frontal passage number two will reach
the Pac Nw Thurs with conditions similar to the Tues front. bZ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington today will
drop south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered
showers along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the
Cascades and near the Canadian border through this evening before
activity decreases after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Convection is expected mainly over the high terrain with the TAF
sites remaining dry with a continuation of VFR conditions.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 032139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
239 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...An upper level trough/closed low will
impact the Inland NW through Saturday with several aspects of this
system to monitor. The center of a closed low will track from near
Vancouver Island today before dropping south into western Oregon
on Friday...before tracking across central and NE Oregon Fri night
and finally into central Idaho Saturday.

Tonight/Friday:

...Patchy frost tonight northern valleys...

Initially with the low tracking west of the region tonight into
Friday the best instability will lie over the Cascades where
scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms is
expected. The highest coverage of showers will occur during peak
heating hours. A dry slot coming around the low will track across
Eastern Washington tonight into Friday which combined with light
winds will result in strong raditional cooling for the northern
valleys. Colder pockets such as Republic, Chewelah, Deer Park,
Springdale, and Priest Lake will likely drop to near the freezing
mark. Also as the low drops into western Oregon on Friday
northerly pressure gradients increase which will result in breezy
winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench (Sandpoint,
Coeur D`Alene areas). This will result in elevated fire weather
concerns for the Okanogan Valley but not to the degree where
highlights are warranted.

Friday night/Saturday:

...Wetting rain likely across Eastern Washington and North
Idaho...

As the closed low tracks across Oregon Friday night into Central
Idaho on Saturday a deformation axis sets up over Eastern
Washington and North Idaho resulting in a swath of steady rain.
Differences remain however between the models regarding the
precise strength and placement of this rain band. The ECMWF and
GEM models have a deeper and further north track giving Eastern
Washington and the north Idaho Panhandle the brunt of the rain
mainly along and east of a line from Colville to Ritzville...with
as much as 0.50-1.25 inches of qpf. The GFS is a bit further south
and weaker with the low with the Idaho Panhandle gitting the brunt
with .25-.50 inches of qpf with ligher amounts over Eastern WA.
With the ECMWF consitent with its solution over the past 3 runs
and with the SREF supporting a further north low track forecast
favors the wetter solution for Eastern WA. That said forecast
temperatures were cooled and rainfall amounts were increased.
There may also be a convective component to the precip amounts
Saturday afternoon which could influence rain amounts.  Omak,
Grand Coulee, and Moses Lake westward to the Cascade crest are
expected to be too far west to receive rain from this stratiform
event. JW

Saturday night through early Tuesday morning...Longwave trof with
various synoptic size and smaller systems passing through it mark
this forecast interval with below normal temperatures and various
pops and QPF amounts to assigned to systems making the trek
through the area. Significant systems to note include one exiting
extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho Saturday night which is
followed up with brief shortwave ridging for Sunday ahead of yet
another mesoscale system that is over the Washington Cascades and
close vicinity at that same time. That system passes to the south
and east early Sunday Evening and exits late in the day Monday.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning the long-wave trof
translates east enough to allow more of a drier northwest/north
flow ahead of a positively tilted ridge extending from off the
coast up through Southern British Columbia which allows for a
lowering of pops and some warming in temperatures. /Pelatti


Tues through Thurs: A dry, quick moving, frontal passage Tues
will produce broken to overcast skies...followed by swift westerly
steering flow. With a dry air mass accompanying these features,
it`ll be tough to get any pcpn, especially given the lack of deep
instability. This westerly flow is, however, favorable for gusty
winds in the Cascade gaps. Frontal passage number two will reach
the Pac Nw Thurs with conditions similar to the Tues front. bZ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington today will
drop south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered
showers along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the
Cascades and near the Canadian border through this evening before
activity decreases after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Convection is expected mainly over the high terrain with the TAF
sites remaining dry with a continuation of VFR conditions.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 032132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
232 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...An upper level trough/closed low will
impact the Inland NW through Saturday with several aspects of this
system to monitor. The center of a closed low will track from near
Vancouver Island today before dropping south into western Oregon
on Friday...before tracking across central and NE Oregon Fri night
and finally into central Idaho Saturday.

Tonight/Friday:

...Patchy frost tonight northern valleys...

Initially with the low tracking west of the region tonight into
Friday the best instability will lie over the Cascades where
scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms is
expected. The highest coverage of showers will occur during peak
heating hours. A dry slot coming around the low will track across
Eastern Washington tonight into Friday which combined with light
winds will result in strong raditional cooling for the northern
valleys. Colder pockets such as Republic, Chewelah, Deer Park,
Springdale, and Priest Lake will likely drop to near the freezing
mark. Also as the low drops into western Oregon on Friday
northerly pressure gradients increase which will result in breezy
winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench (Sandpoint,
Coeur D`Alene areas). This will result in elevated fire weather
concerns for the Okanogan Valley but not to the degree where
highlights are warranted.

Friday night/Saturday:

...Wetting rain likely across Eastern Washington and North
Idaho...

As the closed low tracks across Oregon Friday night into Central
Idaho on Saturday a deformation axis sets up over Eastern
Washington and North Idaho resulting in a swath of steady rain.
Differences remain however between the models regarding the
precise strength and placement of this rain band. The ECMWF and
GEM models have a deeper and further north track giving Eastern
Washington and the north Idaho Panhandle the brunt of the rain
mainly along and east of a line from Colville to Ritzville...with
as much as 0.50-1.25 inches of qpf. The GFS is a bit further south
and weaker with the low with the Idaho Panhandle gitting the brunt
with .25-.50 inches of qpf with ligher amounts over Eastern WA.
With the ECMWF consitent with its solution over the past 3 runs
and with the SREF supporting a further north low track forecast
favors the wetter solution for Eastern WA. That said forecast
temperatures were cooled and rainfall amounts were increased.
There may also be a convective component to the precip amounts
Saturday afternoon which could influence rain amounts.  Omak,
Grand Coulee, and Moses Lake westward to the Cascade crest are
expected to be too far west to receive rain from this stratiform
event.

Saturday night through early Tuesday morning...Longwave trof with
various synoptic size and smaller systems passing through it mark
this forecast interval with below normal temperatures and various
pops and QPF amounts to assigned to systems making the trek
through the area. Significant systems to note include one exiting
extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho Saturday night which is
followed up with brief shortwave ridging for Sunday ahead of yet
another mesoscale system that is over the Washington Cascades and
close vicinity at that same time. That system passes to the south
and east early Sunday Evening and exits late in the day Monday.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning the long-wave trof
translates east enough to allow more of a drier northwest/north
flow ahead of a positively tilted ridge extending from off the
coast up through Southern British Columbia which allows for a
lowering of pops and some warming in temperatures. /Pelatti


Tues through Thurs: A dry, quick moving, frontal passage Tues
will produce broken to overcast skies...followed by swift westerly
steering flow. With a dry air mass accompanying these features,
it`ll be tough to get any pcpn, especially given the lack of deep
instability. This westerly flow is, however, favorable for gusty
winds in the Cascade gaps. Frontal passage number two will reach
the Pac Nw Thurs with conditions similar to the Tues front. bZ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington today will
drop south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered
showers along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the
Cascades and near the Canadian border through this evening before
activity decreases after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Convection is expected mainly over the high terrain with the TAF
sites remaining dry with a continuation of VFR conditions.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 032131
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and portions of Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...An upper level trough/closed low will
impact the Inland NW through Saturday with several aspects of this
system to monitor. The center of a closed low will track from near
Vancouver Island today before dropping south into western Oregon
on Friday...before tracking across central and NE Oregon Fri night
and finally into central Idaho Saturday.

Tonight/Friday:

...Patchy frost tonight northern valleys...

Initially with the low tracking west of the region tonight into
Friday the best instability will lie over the Cascades where
scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms is
expected. The highest coverage of showers will occur during peak
heating hours. A dry slot coming around the low will track across
Eastern Washington tonight into Friday which combined with light
winds will result in strong raditional cooling for the northern
valleys. Colder pockets such as Republic, Chewelah, Deer Park,
Springdale, and Priest Lake will likely drop to near the freezing
mark. Also as the low drops into western Oregon on Friday
northerly pressure gradients increase which will result in breezy
winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench (Sandpoint,
Coeur D`Alene areas). This will result in elevated fire weather
concerns for the Okanogan Valley but not to the degree where
highlights are warranted.

Friday night/Saturday:

...Wetting rain likely across Eastern Washington and North
Idaho...

As the closed low tracks across Oregon Friday night into Central
Idaho on Saturday a deformation axis sets up over Eastern
Washington and North Idaho resulting in a swath of steady rain.
Differences remain however between the models regarding the
precise strength and placement of this rain band. The ECMWF and
GEM models have a deeper and further north track giving Eastern
Washington and the north Idaho Panhandle the brunt of the rain
mainly along and east of a line from Colville to Ritzville...with
as much as 0.50-1.25 inches of qpf. The GFS is a bit further south
and weaker with the low with the Idaho Panhandle gitting the brunt
with .25-.50 inches of qpf with ligher amounts over Eastern WA.
With the ECMWF consitent with its solution over the past 3 runs
and with the SREF supporting a further north low track forecast
favors the wetter solution for Eastern WA. That said forecast
temperatures were cooled and rainfall amounts were increased.
There may also be a convective component to the precip amounts
Saturday afternoon which could influence rain amounts.  Omak,
Grand Coulee, and Moses Lake westward to the Cascade crest are
expected to be too far west to receive rain from this stratiform
event.



Tues through Thurs: A dry, quick moving, frontal passage Tues
will produce broken to overcast skies...followed by swift westerly
steering flow. With a dry air mass accompanying these features,
it`ll be tough to get any pcpn, especially given the lack of deep
instability. This westerly flow is, however, favorable for gusty
winds in the Cascade gaps. Frontal passage number two will reach
the Pac Nw Thurs with conditions similar to the Tues front. bZ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington today will
drop south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered
showers along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the
Cascades and near the Canadian border through this evening before
activity decreases after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Convection is expected mainly over the high terrain with the TAF
sites remaining dry with a continuation of VFR conditions.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  70  47  58  46  68 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  40  70  47  60  46  67 /   0   0  50  70  50  10
Pullman        37  69  49  56  43  65 /   0  10  70  70  50  10
Lewiston       48  74  51  63  52  72 /  10  10  70  60  50  10
Colville       38  72  48  65  43  70 /  10   0  40  70  30  10
Sandpoint      37  68  47  61  42  65 /  10  10  50  70  50  20
Kellogg        39  66  46  57  46  64 /  10  30  60  70  50  20
Moses Lake     43  74  53  75  47  76 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      50  74  51  77  57  76 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           45  73  48  77  47  76 /  30  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 032127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOW SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK
BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. /64

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 032127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOW SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK
BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. /64

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 032127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOW SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK
BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. /64

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 032127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOW SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK
BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. /64

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 032127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
227 PM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLOW SAG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRI...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...BRINGING
MORE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PAC NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND THEN OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE SO FAR...BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...A BATCH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WERE A CONSIDERABLE
NUMBER OF STRIKES RECORDED IN NW WASHINGTON EARLIER WHERE THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT RESIDES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...POTENTIALLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NW OREGON ON FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. EXPECT MORE SUN AND
HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...BUT HINT AT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
NEAR THE AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK
BUILDS OFF THE CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. /64

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN OREGON COULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MILD WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE PERIOD OF STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031730
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1030 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and extreme eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: The threat of showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue around the rim of the Columbia Basin, especially
near the mountains, as a broad trough settles into the Pacific
Northwest. The low at the center of the trough migrates south from
Vancouver Island to western Oregon in the next 36 hours. Impulses
pivoting around to its east side will work with regional
instability and moisture to bring those shower chances, even as
the cold front continue to edge away from the southeast CWA.

First this morning the best chance of showers will linger near
the aforementioned cold front, from the Blues to southeast
Shoshone county, and closer to the parent trough near the Cascade
crest and northern mountains with one of those embedded mid-level
shortwaves passing. I cannot rule out some isolated embedded
thunderstorms too, with a ribbon of elevated instability
represented by high level total totals between 30 to 37 C.
Additionally some isolated sprinkles or a brief shower cannot be
ruled out across the eastern Columbia Basin, including the
Spokane/C`dA Area and Palouse, with the passing shortwave. But the
threat should be mainly early in the morning (before 8 or 9 AM).
Going into the afternoon the shower threat across the southeast is
expected to wane some as the front edges away, but not end
entirely as another shortwave rounds the trough. The expanding
afternoon instability and one of those impulses rounding the
trough will lead to increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm
chances around the Cascades and Waterville Plateau into the
northern mountains again. The threat will wane again through the
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Then going into Friday
the low migrating south and another impulse rounding it will help
stall the front just southeast of the CWA and eventually buckle it
back west. Renewed afternoon instability will again mean renewed
shower and thunderstorm chances across the Cascades and northern
mountains. Chances will also expand back into southeast WA through
the Panhandle. However the overall highest threat will be near the
Cascade crest, the Blue Mountains and southeast Shoshone county.

Through this time frame snow levels will generally be above pass
level, ranging from near 5500-6000 feet in the Cascades to near
6500-7500 feet toward the Central Panhandle. Yet this may be low
enough to bring some light accumulation to the higher peaks.

Winds will also be occasionally breezy. As that low migrates
south Thursday night into Friday the north-to-south pressure
gradient increases. This points to the potential for some breezy
and gusty conditions. The winds are expected to first increase
down the Okanogan Valley into the western Columbia Basin as air
channels through this region. The gradient and winds then begins
to increase down the Purcell Trench, from Bonners Ferry to
Sandpoint out through the Coeur d`Alene area in the afternoon.
Right now it looks too marginal for any critical fire conditions
but it will be monitored.

Temperatures will remain below normal under the trough. The main
potential impact could be during the night hours when temperatures
drop into the 30s and 40s for some. Some locations may even drop
to or below freezing, especially in the sheltered northeast
valleys. The areal coverage may not be enough to warrant a freeze
warning but this too will be monitored. Some patchy frost was
added to the forecast as well for tonight/Friday morning. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Wednesday...The long holiday weekend looks to be
a mixed bag for outdoor activities. Models are now in good
agreement in forming a band of wrap around precipitation over the
eastern half of the forecast area...forming Saturday night and
maxing out with widespread light rain east of a line from about
Republic to Ritzville during the day Saturday...then gradually
tapering off from west to east Saturday night until by Sunday only
residual showers will remain in the Idaho Panhandle. The Cascades
and deep basin should remain dry but variably smoky with continued
breezy winds from the north becoming more westerly on Saturday
during this period. Temperatures will remain below normal and many
locations under the precipitation shield may have trouble breaking
60 degrees on Saturday.

After this closed low system ejects to the east on Sunday forecast
model consensus breaks down somewhat. The GFS wants to bring a
fairly strong short wave trough through the region implying a
reasonably good chance of continued showers over much of the area
Monday...while the ECMWF also displays a short wave but less
strong and more limited to the Canadian border region implying
only mountain showers. In fact through the rest of the extended
forecast both models indicate a general progressive pattern with
embedded weak disturbances transiting the northern tier zones from
time to time. Only way out on Wednesday is there agreement of the
beginnings of a sustained ridge pattern.

Thus the extended period looks unsettled and continued at least
slightly below average temperature-wise. No big storm systems are
expected but the parade of weak systems brushing the region leave
a chance of showers mainly over the north and the Panhandle
mountains through Tuesday. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington today will
drop south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered
showers along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the
Cascades and near the Canadian border through this evening before
activity decreases after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Convection is expected mainly over the high terrain with the TAF
sites remaining dry with a continuation of VFR conditions.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  38  69  46  62  46 /  10   0  10  20  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  38  68  45  60  46 /  10   0  10  30  70  40
Pullman        66  35  69  40  59  43 /  10   0  10  50  60  50
Lewiston       71  45  74  50  66  52 /  20  10  10  40  60  50
Colville       68  35  71  42  66  43 /  20  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      65  34  67  44  61  42 /  20  10  10  30  60  40
Kellogg        63  37  67  43  57  46 /  20  10  30  50  70  50
Moses Lake     71  43  71  47  73  47 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Wenatchee      69  48  72  52  74  57 /  10  20  10  10  10  10
Omak           68  42  70  45  74  47 /  20  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031730
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1030 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and extreme eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: The threat of showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue around the rim of the Columbia Basin, especially
near the mountains, as a broad trough settles into the Pacific
Northwest. The low at the center of the trough migrates south from
Vancouver Island to western Oregon in the next 36 hours. Impulses
pivoting around to its east side will work with regional
instability and moisture to bring those shower chances, even as
the cold front continue to edge away from the southeast CWA.

First this morning the best chance of showers will linger near
the aforementioned cold front, from the Blues to southeast
Shoshone county, and closer to the parent trough near the Cascade
crest and northern mountains with one of those embedded mid-level
shortwaves passing. I cannot rule out some isolated embedded
thunderstorms too, with a ribbon of elevated instability
represented by high level total totals between 30 to 37 C.
Additionally some isolated sprinkles or a brief shower cannot be
ruled out across the eastern Columbia Basin, including the
Spokane/C`dA Area and Palouse, with the passing shortwave. But the
threat should be mainly early in the morning (before 8 or 9 AM).
Going into the afternoon the shower threat across the southeast is
expected to wane some as the front edges away, but not end
entirely as another shortwave rounds the trough. The expanding
afternoon instability and one of those impulses rounding the
trough will lead to increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm
chances around the Cascades and Waterville Plateau into the
northern mountains again. The threat will wane again through the
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Then going into Friday
the low migrating south and another impulse rounding it will help
stall the front just southeast of the CWA and eventually buckle it
back west. Renewed afternoon instability will again mean renewed
shower and thunderstorm chances across the Cascades and northern
mountains. Chances will also expand back into southeast WA through
the Panhandle. However the overall highest threat will be near the
Cascade crest, the Blue Mountains and southeast Shoshone county.

Through this time frame snow levels will generally be above pass
level, ranging from near 5500-6000 feet in the Cascades to near
6500-7500 feet toward the Central Panhandle. Yet this may be low
enough to bring some light accumulation to the higher peaks.

Winds will also be occasionally breezy. As that low migrates
south Thursday night into Friday the north-to-south pressure
gradient increases. This points to the potential for some breezy
and gusty conditions. The winds are expected to first increase
down the Okanogan Valley into the western Columbia Basin as air
channels through this region. The gradient and winds then begins
to increase down the Purcell Trench, from Bonners Ferry to
Sandpoint out through the Coeur d`Alene area in the afternoon.
Right now it looks too marginal for any critical fire conditions
but it will be monitored.

Temperatures will remain below normal under the trough. The main
potential impact could be during the night hours when temperatures
drop into the 30s and 40s for some. Some locations may even drop
to or below freezing, especially in the sheltered northeast
valleys. The areal coverage may not be enough to warrant a freeze
warning but this too will be monitored. Some patchy frost was
added to the forecast as well for tonight/Friday morning. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Wednesday...The long holiday weekend looks to be
a mixed bag for outdoor activities. Models are now in good
agreement in forming a band of wrap around precipitation over the
eastern half of the forecast area...forming Saturday night and
maxing out with widespread light rain east of a line from about
Republic to Ritzville during the day Saturday...then gradually
tapering off from west to east Saturday night until by Sunday only
residual showers will remain in the Idaho Panhandle. The Cascades
and deep basin should remain dry but variably smoky with continued
breezy winds from the north becoming more westerly on Saturday
during this period. Temperatures will remain below normal and many
locations under the precipitation shield may have trouble breaking
60 degrees on Saturday.

After this closed low system ejects to the east on Sunday forecast
model consensus breaks down somewhat. The GFS wants to bring a
fairly strong short wave trough through the region implying a
reasonably good chance of continued showers over much of the area
Monday...while the ECMWF also displays a short wave but less
strong and more limited to the Canadian border region implying
only mountain showers. In fact through the rest of the extended
forecast both models indicate a general progressive pattern with
embedded weak disturbances transiting the northern tier zones from
time to time. Only way out on Wednesday is there agreement of the
beginnings of a sustained ridge pattern.

Thus the extended period looks unsettled and continued at least
slightly below average temperature-wise. No big storm systems are
expected but the parade of weak systems brushing the region leave
a chance of showers mainly over the north and the Panhandle
mountains through Tuesday. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system over western Washington today will
drop south into Oregon tonight. This will result in scattered
showers along with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly in the
Cascades and near the Canadian border through this evening before
activity decreases after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Convection is expected mainly over the high terrain with the TAF
sites remaining dry with a continuation of VFR conditions.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  38  69  46  62  46 /  10   0  10  20  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  38  68  45  60  46 /  10   0  10  30  70  40
Pullman        66  35  69  40  59  43 /  10   0  10  50  60  50
Lewiston       71  45  74  50  66  52 /  20  10  10  40  60  50
Colville       68  35  71  42  66  43 /  20  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      65  34  67  44  61  42 /  20  10  10  30  60  40
Kellogg        63  37  67  43  57  46 /  20  10  30  50  70  50
Moses Lake     71  43  71  47  73  47 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Wenatchee      69  48  72  52  74  57 /  10  20  10  10  10  10
Omak           68  42  70  45  74  47 /  20  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU SEP  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B.C.
TODAY...MAINTAINING COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS SPINNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS LOCATED. TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OVER OUR FCST
AREA TODAY...WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
MAIN ASSOCIATED THREAT BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOME ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO OVER
THE COAST RANGE. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW DRIFT OUT INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL...BUT THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. PYLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AGAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING
NOTABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE THE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL INTO EASTERN OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY... PRIMARILY FOR THE
N OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SLIGHT COOLING TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL...WITH ONLY WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE
AREA...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY WILL RISE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THIS
DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING POCKETS OF LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRATUS BACK BUILDS OFF THE
CASCADES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-03Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A DYING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO BRING
FEW APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALLOW OUR MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND
DOMINATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031615
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY ALLOWING THE AIR MASS TO
GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED S OVER SW B.C. THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS W WA...REACHING
NW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WITH THE LOW REMAINS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
LOW...WHICH HAS PUSHED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COAST AT 8 AM THIS MORNING. MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH E ACROSS THE W WA INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING FOR KSEA SHOWS A LITTLE
WEAKER INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA THIS EVENING WITH THE LOW
OVERHEAD...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S. DRIER N-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL CLEARING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY AND IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL...40S TO
LOWER 50S. WITH ENOUGH CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME OF THE VERY COLDEST SPOTS COULD REACH THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER E OREGON AND HEADED E ON SATURDAY
WHILE AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES SE OVER W WA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNNY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. KAM

.LONG TERM...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AFTER SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS W WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LOOK THAT POTENT SO POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. BOTH MODELS HAVE A WEAK LOOKING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE AREA ON LABOR DAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS A LITTLE
WEAKER RIDGE AND TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
MONDAY SINCE THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
YESTERDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONTO THE WA COAST HAS CEILINGS THERE SOLIDLY
IFR. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING TO VFR...THOUGH SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORM...AND LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORKS SOUTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
TODAY.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AT 15Z WILL MOVE INTO
THE METRO AREA BY 16/17Z BRINGING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY LIGHTNING AND
LOWER CEILINGS.  LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 TO 10 KT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER
AREA WATERS TODAY...WITH GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS AND FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031615
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY ALLOWING THE AIR MASS TO
GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED S OVER SW B.C. THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS W WA...REACHING
NW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WITH THE LOW REMAINS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
LOW...WHICH HAS PUSHED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COAST AT 8 AM THIS MORNING. MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH E ACROSS THE W WA INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING FOR KSEA SHOWS A LITTLE
WEAKER INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA THIS EVENING WITH THE LOW
OVERHEAD...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S. DRIER N-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL CLEARING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY AND IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL...40S TO
LOWER 50S. WITH ENOUGH CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME OF THE VERY COLDEST SPOTS COULD REACH THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER E OREGON AND HEADED E ON SATURDAY
WHILE AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES SE OVER W WA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNNY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. KAM

.LONG TERM...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AFTER SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS W WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LOOK THAT POTENT SO POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. BOTH MODELS HAVE A WEAK LOOKING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE AREA ON LABOR DAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS A LITTLE
WEAKER RIDGE AND TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
MONDAY SINCE THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
YESTERDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONTO THE WA COAST HAS CEILINGS THERE SOLIDLY
IFR. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING TO VFR...THOUGH SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORM...AND LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORKS SOUTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
TODAY.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AT 15Z WILL MOVE INTO
THE METRO AREA BY 16/17Z BRINGING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY LIGHTNING AND
LOWER CEILINGS.  LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 TO 10 KT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER
AREA WATERS TODAY...WITH GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS AND FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 031615
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY ALLOWING THE AIR MASS TO
GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED S OVER SW B.C. THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS W WA...REACHING
NW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WITH THE LOW REMAINS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
LOW...WHICH HAS PUSHED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COAST AT 8 AM THIS MORNING. MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH E ACROSS THE W WA INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING FOR KSEA SHOWS A LITTLE
WEAKER INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA THIS EVENING WITH THE LOW
OVERHEAD...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S. DRIER N-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL CLEARING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY AND IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL...40S TO
LOWER 50S. WITH ENOUGH CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME OF THE VERY COLDEST SPOTS COULD REACH THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER E OREGON AND HEADED E ON SATURDAY
WHILE AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES SE OVER W WA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNNY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. KAM

.LONG TERM...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AFTER SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS W WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LOOK THAT POTENT SO POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. BOTH MODELS HAVE A WEAK LOOKING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE AREA ON LABOR DAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS A LITTLE
WEAKER RIDGE AND TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
MONDAY SINCE THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
YESTERDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONTO THE WA COAST HAS CEILINGS THERE SOLIDLY
IFR. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING TO VFR...THOUGH SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORM...AND LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORKS SOUTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
TODAY.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AT 15Z WILL MOVE INTO
THE METRO AREA BY 16/17Z BRINGING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY LIGHTNING AND
LOWER CEILINGS.  LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 TO 10 KT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER
AREA WATERS TODAY...WITH GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS AND FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031615
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY ALLOWING THE AIR MASS TO
GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED S OVER SW B.C. THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS W WA...REACHING
NW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WITH THE LOW REMAINS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
LOW...WHICH HAS PUSHED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COAST AT 8 AM THIS MORNING. MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH E ACROSS THE W WA INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING FOR KSEA SHOWS A LITTLE
WEAKER INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA THIS EVENING WITH THE LOW
OVERHEAD...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LOW CONTINUES S. DRIER N-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL CLEARING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY AND IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL...40S TO
LOWER 50S. WITH ENOUGH CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME OF THE VERY COLDEST SPOTS COULD REACH THE UPPER 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER E OREGON AND HEADED E ON SATURDAY
WHILE AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES SE OVER W WA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNNY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. KAM

.LONG TERM...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AFTER SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS W WA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LOOK THAT POTENT SO POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. BOTH MODELS HAVE A WEAK LOOKING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE AREA ON LABOR DAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS A LITTLE
WEAKER RIDGE AND TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
MONDAY SINCE THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
YESTERDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONTO THE WA COAST HAS CEILINGS THERE SOLIDLY
IFR. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING TO VFR...THOUGH SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORM...AND LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORKS SOUTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
TODAY.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AT 15Z WILL MOVE INTO
THE METRO AREA BY 16/17Z BRINGING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY LIGHTNING AND
LOWER CEILINGS.  LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 TO 10 KT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER
AREA WATERS TODAY...WITH GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS AND FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and extreme eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: The threat of showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue around the rim of the Columbia Basin, especially
near the mountains, as a broad trough settles into the Pacific
Northwest. The low at the center of the trough migrates south from
Vancouver Island to western Oregon in the next 36 hours. Impulses
pivoting around to its east side will work with regional
instability and moisture to bring those shower chances, even as
the cold front continue to edge away from the southeast CWA.

First this morning the best chance of showers will linger near
the aforementioned cold front, from the Blues to southeast
Shoshone county, and closer to the parent trough near the Cascade
crest and northern mountains with one of those embedded mid-level
shortwaves passing. I cannot rule out some isolated embedded
thunderstorms too, with a ribbon of elevated instability
represented by high level total totals between 30 to 37 C.
Additionally some isolated sprinkles or a brief shower cannot be
ruled out across the eastern Columbia Basin, including the
Spokane/C`dA Area and Palouse, with the passing shortwave. But the
threat should be mainly early in the morning (before 8 or 9 AM).
Going into the afternoon the shower threat across the southeast is
expected to wane some as the front edges away, but not end
entirely as another shortwave rounds the trough. The expanding
afternoon instability and one of those impulses rounding the
trough will lead to increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm
chances around the Cascades and Waterville Plateau into the
northern mountains again. The threat will wane again through the
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Then going into Friday
the low migrating south and another impulse rounding it will help
stall the front just southeast of the CWA and eventually buckle it
back west. Renewed afternoon instability will again mean renewed
shower and thunderstorm chances across the Cascades and northern
mountains. Chances will also expand back into southeast WA through
the Panhandle. However the overall highest threat will be near the
Cascade crest, the Blue Mountains and southeast Shoshone county.

Through this time frame snow levels will generally be above pass
level, ranging from near 5500-6000 feet in the Cascades to near
6500-7500 feet toward the Central Panhandle. Yet this may be low
enough to bring some light accumulation to the higher peaks.

Winds will also be occasionally breezy. As that low migrates
south Thursday night into Friday the north-to-south pressure
gradient increases. This points to the potential for some breezy
and gusty conditions. The winds are expected to first increase
down the Okanogan Valley into the western Columbia Basin as air
channels through this region. The gradient and winds then begins
to increase down the Purcell Trench, from Bonners Ferry to
Sandpoint out through the Coeur d`Alene area in the afternoon.
Right now it looks too marginal for any critical fire conditions
but it will be monitored.

Temperatures will remain below normal under the trough. The main
potential impact could be during the night hours when temperatures
drop into the 30s and 40s for some. Some locations may even drop
to or below freezing, especially in the sheltered northeast
valleys. The areal coverage may not be enough to warrant a freeze
warning but this too will be monitored. Some patchy frost was
added to the forecast as well for tonight/Friday morning. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Wednesday...The long holiday weekend looks to be
a mixed bag for outdoor activities. Models are now in good
agreement in forming a band of wrap around precipitation over the
eastern half of the forecast area...forming Saturday night and
maxing out with widespread light rain east of a line from about
Republic to Ritzville during the day Saturday...then gradually
tapering off from west to east Saturday night until by Sunday only
residual showers will remain in the Idaho Panhandle. The Cascades
and deep basin should remain dry but variably smoky with continued
breezy winds from the north becoming more westerly on Saturday
during this period. Temperatures will remain below normal and many
locations under the precipitation shield may have trouble breaking
60 degrees on Saturday.

After this closed low system ejects to the east on Sunday forecast
model consensus breaks down somewhat. The GFS wants to bring a
fairly strong short wave trough through the region implying a
reasonably good chance of continued showers over much of the area
Monday...while the ECMWF also displays a short wave but less
strong and more limited to the Canadian border region implying
only mountain showers. In fact through the rest of the extended
forecast both models indicate a general progressive pattern with
embedded weak disturbances transiting the northern tier zones from
time to time. Only way out on Wednesday is there agreement of the
beginnings of a sustained ridge pattern.

Thus the extended period looks unsettled and continued at least
slightly below average temperature-wise. No big storm systems are
expected but the parade of weak systems brushing the region leave
a chance of showers mainly over the north and the Panhandle
mountains through Tuesday. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low pressure migrates into western WA and a cold front
edges away from lower ID/southeast WA. Disturbances rounding the
western WA low will bring a threat of widely scattered to isolated
showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. However the best threat
will away from TAF sites, over the Cascades and northern mountains
and from the Blues to central Panhandle. A few showers will be
possible mainly early around GEG to COE and LWS. Otherwise expect
dry, VFR conditions with diurnal winds at generally 10kts or less.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  38  69  46  62  46 /  10   0  10  20  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  38  68  45  60  46 /  10   0  10  30  70  40
Pullman        66  35  69  40  59  43 /  10   0  10  50  60  50
Lewiston       71  45  74  50  66  52 /  20  10  10  40  60  50
Colville       68  35  71  42  66  43 /  20  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      65  34  67  44  61  42 /  20  10  10  30  60  40
Kellogg        63  37  67  43  57  46 /  20  10  30  50  70  50
Moses Lake     71  43  71  47  73  47 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Wenatchee      69  48  72  52  74  57 /  10  20  10  10  10  10
Omak           68  42  70  45  74  47 /  20  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern is expected for the remainder
of the work week as a cold storm system moves by the area.
Widespread rain is expected in the Panhandle and extreme eastern
Washington on Saturday. Drier and warmer weather is expected by
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: The threat of showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue around the rim of the Columbia Basin, especially
near the mountains, as a broad trough settles into the Pacific
Northwest. The low at the center of the trough migrates south from
Vancouver Island to western Oregon in the next 36 hours. Impulses
pivoting around to its east side will work with regional
instability and moisture to bring those shower chances, even as
the cold front continue to edge away from the southeast CWA.

First this morning the best chance of showers will linger near
the aforementioned cold front, from the Blues to southeast
Shoshone county, and closer to the parent trough near the Cascade
crest and northern mountains with one of those embedded mid-level
shortwaves passing. I cannot rule out some isolated embedded
thunderstorms too, with a ribbon of elevated instability
represented by high level total totals between 30 to 37 C.
Additionally some isolated sprinkles or a brief shower cannot be
ruled out across the eastern Columbia Basin, including the
Spokane/C`dA Area and Palouse, with the passing shortwave. But the
threat should be mainly early in the morning (before 8 or 9 AM).
Going into the afternoon the shower threat across the southeast is
expected to wane some as the front edges away, but not end
entirely as another shortwave rounds the trough. The expanding
afternoon instability and one of those impulses rounding the
trough will lead to increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm
chances around the Cascades and Waterville Plateau into the
northern mountains again. The threat will wane again through the
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Then going into Friday
the low migrating south and another impulse rounding it will help
stall the front just southeast of the CWA and eventually buckle it
back west. Renewed afternoon instability will again mean renewed
shower and thunderstorm chances across the Cascades and northern
mountains. Chances will also expand back into southeast WA through
the Panhandle. However the overall highest threat will be near the
Cascade crest, the Blue Mountains and southeast Shoshone county.

Through this time frame snow levels will generally be above pass
level, ranging from near 5500-6000 feet in the Cascades to near
6500-7500 feet toward the Central Panhandle. Yet this may be low
enough to bring some light accumulation to the higher peaks.

Winds will also be occasionally breezy. As that low migrates
south Thursday night into Friday the north-to-south pressure
gradient increases. This points to the potential for some breezy
and gusty conditions. The winds are expected to first increase
down the Okanogan Valley into the western Columbia Basin as air
channels through this region. The gradient and winds then begins
to increase down the Purcell Trench, from Bonners Ferry to
Sandpoint out through the Coeur d`Alene area in the afternoon.
Right now it looks too marginal for any critical fire conditions
but it will be monitored.

Temperatures will remain below normal under the trough. The main
potential impact could be during the night hours when temperatures
drop into the 30s and 40s for some. Some locations may even drop
to or below freezing, especially in the sheltered northeast
valleys. The areal coverage may not be enough to warrant a freeze
warning but this too will be monitored. Some patchy frost was
added to the forecast as well for tonight/Friday morning. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Wednesday...The long holiday weekend looks to be
a mixed bag for outdoor activities. Models are now in good
agreement in forming a band of wrap around precipitation over the
eastern half of the forecast area...forming Saturday night and
maxing out with widespread light rain east of a line from about
Republic to Ritzville during the day Saturday...then gradually
tapering off from west to east Saturday night until by Sunday only
residual showers will remain in the Idaho Panhandle. The Cascades
and deep basin should remain dry but variably smoky with continued
breezy winds from the north becoming more westerly on Saturday
during this period. Temperatures will remain below normal and many
locations under the precipitation shield may have trouble breaking
60 degrees on Saturday.

After this closed low system ejects to the east on Sunday forecast
model consensus breaks down somewhat. The GFS wants to bring a
fairly strong short wave trough through the region implying a
reasonably good chance of continued showers over much of the area
Monday...while the ECMWF also displays a short wave but less
strong and more limited to the Canadian border region implying
only mountain showers. In fact through the rest of the extended
forecast both models indicate a general progressive pattern with
embedded weak disturbances transiting the northern tier zones from
time to time. Only way out on Wednesday is there agreement of the
beginnings of a sustained ridge pattern.

Thus the extended period looks unsettled and continued at least
slightly below average temperature-wise. No big storm systems are
expected but the parade of weak systems brushing the region leave
a chance of showers mainly over the north and the Panhandle
mountains through Tuesday. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low pressure migrates into western WA and a cold front
edges away from lower ID/southeast WA. Disturbances rounding the
western WA low will bring a threat of widely scattered to isolated
showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. However the best threat
will away from TAF sites, over the Cascades and northern mountains
and from the Blues to central Panhandle. A few showers will be
possible mainly early around GEG to COE and LWS. Otherwise expect
dry, VFR conditions with diurnal winds at generally 10kts or less.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  38  69  46  62  46 /  10   0  10  20  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  38  68  45  60  46 /  10   0  10  30  70  40
Pullman        66  35  69  40  59  43 /  10   0  10  50  60  50
Lewiston       71  45  74  50  66  52 /  20  10  10  40  60  50
Colville       68  35  71  42  66  43 /  20  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      65  34  67  44  61  42 /  20  10  10  30  60  40
Kellogg        63  37  67  43  57  46 /  20  10  30  50  70  50
Moses Lake     71  43  71  47  73  47 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Wenatchee      69  48  72  52  74  57 /  10  20  10  10  10  10
Omak           68  42  70  45  74  47 /  20  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 031021
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA IS
EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TODAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS ALONG
WITH A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO OREGON FRIDAY OFFERING A GRADUAL DRYING AND
WARMING TREND FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER THREAT BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN WA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS LOW IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. BUT THIS WILL ALL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES DOWN. WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW OVERHEAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S TODAY...BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS ARE DOWN TO 5500-6000 FEET
WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OVER WESTERN OREGON WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AND
MOSTLY IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES
INLAND FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND WETTER AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THE WEATHER ON LABOR DAY AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOOK FOR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 33

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CLIP WESTERN WA ON
TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
WEAKER IN THE LATEST SOLUTIONS. BEYOND THEN...THE MODELS START TO
DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. MEANWHILE...THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER THROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE THAT IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOCAL LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING...SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LOWER
CIGS IN ANY SHOWERS.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS FOR A WHILE...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BRING CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN
SOUTHERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN NORTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY...AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER
ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 031021
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA IS
EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TODAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS ALONG
WITH A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO OREGON FRIDAY OFFERING A GRADUAL DRYING AND
WARMING TREND FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER THREAT BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN WA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS LOW IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. BUT THIS WILL ALL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES DOWN. WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW OVERHEAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S TODAY...BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS ARE DOWN TO 5500-6000 FEET
WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OVER WESTERN OREGON WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AND
MOSTLY IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES
INLAND FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND WETTER AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THE WEATHER ON LABOR DAY AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOOK FOR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 33

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CLIP WESTERN WA ON
TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
WEAKER IN THE LATEST SOLUTIONS. BEYOND THEN...THE MODELS START TO
DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. MEANWHILE...THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER THROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE THAT IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOCAL LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING...SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LOWER
CIGS IN ANY SHOWERS.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS FOR A WHILE...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BRING CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THEN
SOUTHERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN NORTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY...AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER
ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




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