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000
FXUS66 KSEW 030952
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY FOR MUCH COOLER
WEATHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG OR OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TODAY...BY ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES AT MOST PLACES...AFTER
THE RECORD WARMTH EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...EXPECT THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY TODAY FOR WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE VERY
RECENT HOT SPELL. A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KILL THE THREAT OF TSTMS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CASCADES
WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF CENTERED OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROF
AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE BECOME SPLIT BY THEN. EXPECT MUCH OF THE ENERGY
TO DIVE SOUTH...CARVING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST.
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR
SUNNIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE LATEST GFS
SOLUTION WAS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF
DIGGING AN UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEKEND.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS WAS FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY.
THE DEEPENING TROF WILL SERVE TO INITIATE AN ONSHORE PUSH ON
SATURDAY.

TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO START OFF ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD BUT LOWER TO CLOSER TO NORMAL THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE FORECAST TEMPS REFLECTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
WARMER GFS AND THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTIONS. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THE FORECAST TEMPS ARE TOO WARM FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
CASCADES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY
THIS MORNING...BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 135W. THE AIR MASS IS
SOMEWHAT MOIST ABOVE 10000 FT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 10000 FT. THERE ARE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED VIRGA FALLING FROM THESE CLOUDS.
MARINE STRATUS HAS MOVED NORTH UP THE COAST AND INTO THE LOWER
CHEHALIS VALLEY WITH WITH LOW-END MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ALL LEVEL.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 3-8 KT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6-12 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH TONIGHT. CEILING SHOULD
MOSTLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FT TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY FALL
TONIGHT. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF GALE
WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LIKELY
OVER ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL. THE
GALE WATCH IS BEING UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TIL 3 AM WEDNESDAY
 FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING
 WATERS...EXCEPT THE PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL...BEGINNING
 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



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000
FXUS66 KPQR 030943
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
243 AM PDT TUE MAY  3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHING TOWARD THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THE
CASCADES. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE...EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD INLAND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTER YET ANOTHER DAY OF
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR SOME...TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS
SW WA/NW OR AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE FLIPPED AROUND TO ONSHORE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BOTH ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO SCALES. KTTD-KDLS WAS AT ABOUT +3 MB AS
OF 2 AM...WITH KOTH-KGEG GRADIENTS TURNING ONSHORE AS WELL. THIS
WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE A GOOD 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY FOR INLAND
AREAS...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL WED/THU.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE SHALLOW/WEAK INSTABILITY BETWEEN
700-500 MB THIS MORNING...BUT DESPITE BEING ELEVATED CONVECTION THE
TOPS ARE STILL GENERALLY NOT HIGH/COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE REQUISITE
CHARGE SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING. DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING...THOUGH A STRAY STRIKE OR TWO LIKE THE ONES
RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ANYWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AT BEST ABOVE 500 MB.
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BRING MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT ALSO APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING WEST
OF THE CASCADES EITHER DAY.

THE REMNANTS OF OUR DYING COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE MOST MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW
ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THURSDAY APPEARING TO BE THE BEGINNING OF
THAT TRANSITION. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISH AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THU/FRI AS A RESULT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR ALONG THE COAST AT 10Z AS A SOUTH WIND REVERSAL
CONTINUES. LIKELY SEEING SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS PUSHING UP THE
MAJOR COASTAL RIVER DRAINAGES. VFR ELSEWHERE. COASTAL AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GO
TO A MIX OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH
VFR BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON HEATING TUE WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE CASCADES. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER MARINE CLOUD
PENETRATION INLAND AFTER 06Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WED.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH A
SLIM THREAT OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY.
MVFR CIGS COULD UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR KPDX 07Z TO 12Z WED.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MAX GUSTS HAVE BEEN UNDER 20 KT. NW TO N WIND
PATTERN RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED SPEEDS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN THE OUTER WATERS
BEGINNING 00Z WED. INNER WATERS WILL SEE 25 KT WIND GUSTS BEGIN A
LITTLE LATER. THUS...STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AT 06Z
WED. OUTER WATERS COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS HAVE NUDGED DOWN A BIT SINCE EARLIER THIS EVENING...GENERALLY
6 TO 7 FT. LATEST SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEAS TO BECOME WIND-
WAVE DOMINATED EARLY TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. OUTER WATERS LIKELY TO SEE WIND WAVES UP TO 6 FT...WITH A
LONGER-PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT OF 2-4 FT. SEAS WILL BECOME QUITE
CHOPPY AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUARE SEAS LATE THIS WEEK.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



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000
FXUS66 KOTX 030935
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to shift east today. Expect one more day
of warm and dry conditions today. By late today and lasting until
Friday a slow moving weather disturbance will move through the
region. This will result in a cooler, unsettled pattern with a
good chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain
by Wednesday and Thursday. Improving conditions will begin again
late on Friday, lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE
THIS WEEK...FLASH FLOODING ON RECENT BURN SCARS POSSIBLE

Today through Wednesday: The weather pattern over the Inland NW will
gradually become more active as the dome of high pressure
continues to slide into central MT and southerly flow draws a rich
moisture plume into the region. The moisture will arrive along the
Cascade Crest today then begin to spread into Ern WA and N ID on
Wednesday. Consequently, the threat for showers and thunderstorms
will follow suite. Temperatures will remain quite toasty for May
standards with afternoon highs 15-20 degrees above normal today
and only cooling a handful of degrees Wednesday. The threat of
thunderstorms and showers capable of moderate rainfall amounts
will be the main focus through this period with confidence levels
near to below average regarding the threat to burn scars.

* Thunderstorm Potential: The main focus for thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening will be along the Cascade Crest and points
  just slightly east. The combination of afternoon CAPE on the
  order of 400-800 J/kg and PWATS climbing near 0.70" does raise
  concern for cells capable of heavy downpours. Any storms that
  develop will track south to north around 20-25 mph so one storm
  will not pose as much of a threat but if several cells were
  track over the same area...this training effect could lead to
  hefty rainfall amounts. Prior to 8PM...the main forcing will
  come from converging terrain driven winds and this generally
  carries lower confidence. The threat for showers and storms will
  increase further into the evening hours as a 850-700mb frontal
  boundary arrives. A few showers main expand as far east as the
  Waterville Plateau but through much of the evening and overnight
  periods...the burn scar that most susceptible to heavier showers
  will be the Wolverine impacting locations between Holden Village
  and Lucerne.

  The air mass will continue to slowly moisten
  across Ern WA and N ID on Wednesday but it looks like the region
  will lack a strong trigger to initiate afternoon convection.
  Just about every location across the CWA supports enough
  afternoon instability to support a thunderstorm but whether
  parcels can break through the CIN layer and develop into
  thunderstorms is highly uncertain. The main threat for any
  storms will come in the afternoon following spotty light showers
  in the morning and attm, there is loose agreement that the
  northern mountains and Cascade Crest will carry the highest
  chances. A much better opportunity arrives with a wave
  approaching from the south Wednesday night. /sb

Wednesday night through Monday...This period will consist of a wet
showery period Wednesday night and Thursday followed by a drying
trend Friday through Sunday...with a possible breezy dry cold
front by next Monday.

The stormy period will be compliments of a moist southerly flow
visible on satellite as a deep fetch of Pacific moisture moving up
ahead of a highly meridional trough just off the coast this
morning. By Wednesday evening models are in good agreement in
depicting this deep moisture feed laying along the Cascades with
very slow movement eastward as the parent trough keeps
digging...eventually pinching off into a lazy and broad closed low
over California. A surface thermal trough will set up over the
Columbia Basin on Tuesday and Wednesday. This moisture and low
level heating will lead to an unstable air mass. Triggering
mechanisms besides orography will be provided by a weak wave
transiting up out of Oregon Wednesday night and pulling the
moisture axis eastward across the forecast area on Thursday...into
the surface thermal trough. All of this adds up to a very showery
and potentially thundery pattern Wednesday evening through Thursday
for just about the entire forecast area. The Major evolving
concern will be the potential for debris flows and flash floods on
recent burn scars in the Cascades and Okanogan area. This
potential will be closely monitored and further analyzed through
the next 24 to 36 hours for the possibility of issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for these areas.

A cooling trend will begin from west to east with the passage of
this system...with Wednesday and Thursday`s high temperatures
probably still above normal but moderated off of the peak
temperatures of Tuesday.

After Thursday a drying trend will commence...still with some
lingering minor showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm on Friday
concentrated over mountains and the southeastern zones...as a
flop-over upper ridge noses into the region over the low pressure
far to the south. This will keep the forecast area in a quiet
weather zone but with breezy north to northeast winds ushering in
some dry Canadian continental air through the Okanogan Valley and
Purcell Trench Friday and Saturday. Temperatures in this dry air
mass under clearing skies will begin to march upward again for the
weekend cresting once again around 10 degrees above normal.

Far in the extended forecast models are more ambiguous but seem to
be hinting at a dry cold front passage on or about Monday as the
polar storm track dips south and flattens the upper ridge. In
addition to breezy conditions...this time out of the
west/northwest...temperatures should moderate back toward normal
for the start of the new work week. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure has shifted to the east and will allow
for a prolonged interval of flow from south to north which may
allow for showers and thunderstorms to pass over the Cascades
and close proximity to them as early as 18Z Tuesday...still
Conditions for TAF sites should still remain VFR through 06Z
Wednesday. /Pelatti




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  54  78  55  68  50 /   0   0  20  50  60  30
Coeur d`Alene  82  49  78  52  69  49 /   0   0  20  50  60  30
Pullman        79  49  76  51  67  47 /   0   0  20  50  50  40
Lewiston       85  53  82  56  72  51 /   0  10  20  50  50  40
Colville       87  45  79  49  70  45 /   0   0  30  50  70  30
Sandpoint      79  44  77  48  70  44 /   0   0  20  40  60  30
Kellogg        80  45  79  46  69  44 /   0   0  20  40  50  50
Moses Lake     85  53  79  53  72  47 /   0  10  20  50  50  20
Wenatchee      83  56  76  55  70  52 /  10  20  30  60  50  20
Omak           84  53  77  54  69  48 /   0  20  40  60  60  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 030545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1045 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to shift east tonight and Tuesday.
Expect one more day of warm and dry conditions on Tuesday. By
late Tuesday and lasting until Friday a slow moving weather
disturbance will move through the region. This will result in a
cooler, unsettled pattern with a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by Wednesday and Thursday.
Improving conditions will begin again late on Friday, lasting into
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night: The axis of the ridge of high
pressure has moved into western Montana and SE B.C., meanwhile a
deep upper level low has moved inside 140W. This dance, as the
ridge shifts east and the upper low moves inland will play out
over the next several days. Through the short term the resultant
southerly flow will pump Pacific moisture into the region, mainly
along and west of the Cascades, and mainly above 700mb through
Tuesday mid-day or so. As the moisture deepens Tuesday afternoon
and evening it will move east of the crest, but mainly west of the
Columbia river along the east slopes of the Cascades. The surface
and mid levels will destabilize Tuesday and Tuesday night, but
there is no real strong forcing mechanism save for orographics and
the heating of the day. The chance for precipitation has been
bumped up along the crest just due to the shear magnitude of the
moisture advection, and while there is a chance for thunderstorms
the confidence in some moderate showers is much higher than
lightning. Temperatures on Tuesday will likely be the warmest of
the week with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. This may be mitigated
a bit by cloud cover, but the rapid snow melt due to the warm
temperatures of late will continue.

* Impacts: Low at this time. Rain fall amounts will only be
  around a tenth or so, but this will just help to moisten the
  soils for additional rain and snow melt for Wednesday and
  Thursday. Tobin

Wednesday through Monday: Shower and thunderstorm chances
migrate across the Inland NW through Friday, before drier weather
returns for the weekend. Between Tuesday night and Thursday a
stretching/splitting upper trough edges from the coastline to the
Cascades, before it starts to shift out Friday. This slow-moving
boundary and smaller-scale disturbances tracking up from the south
will work with instability and deepening moisture to bring the
shower and thunderstorm chances.

* Precipitation evolution: Wednesday the best forcing and highest
  threat of precipitation will be near the Cascades and northern
  mountains. Precipitation elsewhere will be more isolated to
  scattered in nature. Wednesday night the broader surface-based
  instability abates, but some elevated instability continues
  across south-central/southeastern WA into the lower Panhandle.
  At the same time a more robust vorticity max starts in from the
  south and the best surge of moisture starts in from the south.
  This will lead to the next round of precipitation developing
  from the south through the night into Thursday morning. Thursday
  the focus for instability begins to shift away from the Cascades
  but remains moderate elsewhere. With moisture remaining
  abundant, a deformation along the WA/ID wrapping back toward the
  Cascades and more viable vorticity lobes coming across the
  region, it looks like Thursday should have the broadest threat
  of showers and thunderstorms. At this time if there are
  organized/stronger thunderstorms it appears the best risk would
  be over southeast WA and the lower ID Panhandle Thursday
  afternoon. Thursday night into Friday the southern and dominate
  split of the upper trough sags into the Great Basin and the
  northern split moves into across the Canadian Rockies. This
  leaves a weaker deformation axis in the east and a southeastern
  flow that carries some weak vorticity lobes by the Blues and
  Camas Prairie. The highest shower chances will linger across
  southeast WA and the ID Panhandle. Some guidance, however, shows
  a threat of showers drifting as far west as the Okanogan
  Highlands and eastern Waterville Plateau. This doesn`t seem out
  of the question given the easterly flow so I expanded a slight
  threat here.

* Flooding risk: Through this time models depict abundant
  moisture nosing in, with PWATs rising to between 0.75 to 1.0
  inches Wednesday night into Thursday. This is about 200-300% of
  normal. So any showers or thunderstorms that develop could
  produce some heavy downpours. Given the flow pattern there is a
  risk of training showers, i.e. precipitation repeatedly going
  over the same spots. This could mean localized flooding,
  especially in burn scars or other more high-risk areas such as
  steeper terrain. The first threat will be near the Cascades
  Wednesday, then expand east Thursday before waning from the west
  Thursday evening.

* Winds: going into Thursday night and Friday the shifting
  pattern leads to an increasing gradient. Thursday night the
  gradient appears strongest from north to south, bringing some of
  the stronger winds to the Okanogan Valley through western
  Columbia Basin. Friday the stronger gradient comes in from
  northeast, expanding a broader stronger wind threat across north
  Idaho out through the Spokane area into the Columbia Basin. I
  raised speeds compared to the previous forecast. Average speeds
  10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. However localized specific
  details will differ.

From Saturday to Monday the Inland NW will be in a relatively
drier pattern, with the upper low well south of the region and the
jet stream well north of the Canadian border until about Sunday
night to Monday. Saturday winds will remain breezy to strong from
the northwest before abating through the later afternoon in
evening, as gradient start to slacken. An isolated shower threat
will linger near the central/southern ID Panhandle mountains, with
dry and mostly sunny weather elsewhere. Sunday looks mostly sunny
and dry. By Monday a system drops southeast from Canadian toward
the northern Rockies, bringing just a few more clouds and a slight
threat of showers near the northeast WA and ID Panhandle
mountains. Otherwise dry weather continues. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure has shifted to the east and will allow
for a prolonged interval of flow from south to north which may
allow for showers and thunderstorms to pass over the Cascades
and close proximity to them as early as 18Z Tuesday...still
Conditions for TAF sites should still remain VFR through 06Z
Wednesday. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  81  54  78  54  67 /   0   0   0  20  50  70
Coeur d`Alene  47  82  49  79  51  69 /   0   0   0  20  50  60
Pullman        47  79  48  76  49  66 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       50  85  52  82  54  72 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Colville       44  85  47  80  47  70 /   0   0  10  20  50  80
Sandpoint      41  79  45  77  47  69 /   0   0   0  20  30  60
Kellogg        44  80  45  80  45  69 /   0   0   0  20  40  60
Moses Lake     46  84  51  79  50  70 /   0   0  10  30  60  60
Wenatchee      53  82  56  76  53  69 /   0  10  20  30  50  50
Omak           49  84  52  77  52  69 /   0  10  20  40  50  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 030347
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF AN EVENING THUNDERSTORM. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOWER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH HAVE DROPPED THE ODD
TRACE HERE AND THERE...AND A FEW 0.01 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES.
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SEEMS TO COVER IT WELL. ONE
CELL MOVING ALONG THE COAST DEVELOPED THUNDER OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW HAS INCREASED AND SOME
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL PUSH IS LIKELY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF GRADIENTS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STRATUS GET TO
KNUW AND KSHN TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL THE WAY TO THE WEST SIDE OF
PUGET SOUND. THE MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY TO BE COMPLETED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS GRADIENTS INCREASE EVEN MORE.

IN THE BROADER PATTER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALL THREE DAYS. ASIDE
FROM THE CLOUDINESS...THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER
TEMPERATURES. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S ON TUESDAY WITH
LOW 60S ON THE COAST UNDER CLOUDS. MORE CLOUDS EVERYWHERE WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A RIDGE
NOSING NE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER AND YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND. BY SUNDAY...THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A BRUSH BY TROUGH. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MOST
LIKELY STILL BE DRY BUT WOULD INDUCE A STRONG MARINE PUSH WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE A STRONGER RIDGE INTO
MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
A COMPROMISE BUT TILTED TOWARD A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 138W. THE AIR MASS IS SOMEWHAT
MOIST ABOVE 10000 FT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10000 FT. THERE ARE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED VIRGA FALLING FROM THESE CLOUDS. MARINE
STRATUS SHOULD MOVE NORTH UP THE COAST LATER TONIGHT BRINGING
LOW-END MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...AND PROBABLY MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP TO
NEAR SHELTON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 10000 FT.

KSEA...SOUTHWEST WIND 8-13 KT GUSTING 20 KT THIS EVENING...
BECOMING SOUTH 3-8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST 8-14 KT
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILING SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
10000 FT. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WESTERLIES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF GALE
WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
LIKELY OVER ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD
CANAL. A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
     WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030316
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PDT MON MAY  2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
AGAIN POSSIBLY ON TUE. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RETURN TO INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE AND WED. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES THU AND FRI. THEN...LIKE PAST WEEKENDS...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.EVENING UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE FILLING IN ALONG THE COAST
AS FORECASTED THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE TO OUR SOUTH IN DOUGLAS COUNTY APPEARED TO BE
VERY SHALLOW AND FELL APART AS THEY MOVE INTO LANE COUNTY. STILL
THINK THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER...MAINLY IN
LANE COUNTY AND IN THE COAST RANGE...BUT ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE A
SHOWER COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE STRIKES OF LIGHTNING IN THE CASCADES.
AM CHANGING THE ISOLATED THUNDER TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS THERE
AND WE ARE SEEING SHOWERS...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
MORE THAN ONE OR TWO WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. -MCCOY

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THUR).
UPPER LOW PRES OFF THE CALIF COAST IS MAINTAINING S TO SE FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUE. WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER NW CALIF WILL
LIFT N THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE CALIF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DRIFT N/NW THIS EVENING...WITH NEWER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST THREAT
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CASCADES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
COAST RANGE LATER THIS EVENING. SUSPECT THIS WILL SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE CASCADES...THEN SEE SHOWERS POP OVER THE COAST RANGE LATER
THIS EVENING. OF INTEREST WILL BE THE THERMAL TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW
SLOWLY MOVING INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. AS
SUCH...THIS MAY ACT MUCH LIKE A COLD FRONT...AND ENHANCE THE LIFTING
AND RESULTANT SHOWERS OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS EVENING. STILL CAN
NOT ELIMINATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MOST AREAS AWAY THE
CASCADES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...RATHER PLEASANT EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG THE S OREGON COAST. AT 2 PM...LEADING EDGE
WAS ABOUT 10 MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLORENCE. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS UP TO LINCOLN CITY THROUGH 8 PM...
WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE
ONSHORE GRADIENT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE...SO WOULD EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PUSH INLAND PAST THE COAST RANGE.

AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT SITS
FARTHER OFFSHORE DRAWS CLOSER...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUE. STILL DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. BUT
INSTABILITY NOT LOOKING SO GOOD. STILL...WILL KEEP SOME MINOR THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES CREST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW WED AND THU WED... WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. WILL SEE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...BUT ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW LIKELY TO FORM OFF CALIF ON THU.
OVERALL...WED AND THU WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS
FOR THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES.
NOT MUCH THREAT OF THUNDER DUE TO LOT OF CLOUD COVER.WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES CREST FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS.   CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SWITCHING ONSHORE. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
BETWEEN 01Z AND 08Z TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TUE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS TURNS
ONSHORE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
AWAY FROM KPDX.
&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE BACK OFF WINDS WITH THE REVERSAL SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS. A
WESTERLY SWELL HAS PUSHED SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT BUT SHOULD RELAX
TO 6 TO 7 FT TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY. STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ON TAP
DURING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WHILE
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 FT...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME
ESPECIALLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS FRESH SWELL/WIND WAVE DOMINATE DUE TO PERIODS OF NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022331
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
431 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to shift east tonight and Tuesday.
Expect one more day of warm and dry conditions on Tuesday. By
late Tuesday and lasting until Friday a slow moving weather
disturbance will move through the region. This will result in a
cooler, unsettled pattern with a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by Wednesday and Thursday.
Improving conditions will begin again late on Friday, lasting into
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night: The axis of the ridge of high
pressure has moved into western Montana and SE B.C., meanwhile a
deep upper level low has moved inside 140W. This dance, as the
ridge shifts east and the upper low moves inland will play out
over the next several days. Through the short term the resultant
southerly flow will pump Pacific moisture into the region, mainly
along and west of the Cascades, and mainly above 700mb through
Tuesday mid-day or so. As the moisture deepens Tuesday afternoon
and evening it will move east of the crest, but mainly west of the
Columbia river along the east slopes of the Cascades. The surface
and mid levels will destabilize Tuesday and Tuesday night, but
there is no real strong forcing mechanism save for orographics and
the heating of the day. The chance for precipitation has been
bumped up along the crest just due to the shear magnitude of the
moisture advection, and while there is a chance for thunderstorms
the confidence in some moderate showers is much higher than
lightning. Temperatures on Tuesday will likely be the warmest of
the week with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. This may be mitigated
a bit by cloud cover, but the rapid snow melt due to the warm
temperatures of late will continue.

* Impacts: Low at this time. Rain fall amounts will only be
  around a tenth or so, but this will just help to moisten the
  soils for additional rain and snow melt for Wednesday and
  Thursday. Tobin

Wednesday through Monday: Shower and thunderstorm chances
migrate across the Inland NW through Friday, before drier weather
returns for the weekend. Between Tuesday night and Thursday a
stretching/splitting upper trough edges from the coastline to the
Cascades, before it starts to shift out Friday. This slow-moving
boundary and smaller-scale disturbances tracking up from the south
will work with instability and deepening moisture to bring the
shower and thunderstorm chances.

* Precipitation evolution: Wednesday the best forcing and highest
  threat of precipitation will be near the Cascades and northern
  mountains. Precipitation elsewhere will be more isolated to
  scattered in nature. Wednesday night the broader surface-based
  instability abates, but some elevated instability continues
  across south-central/southeastern WA into the lower Panhandle.
  At the same time a more robust vorticity max starts in from the
  south and the best surge of moisture starts in from the south.
  This will lead to the next round of precipitation developing
  from the south through the night into Thursday morning. Thursday
  the focus for instability begins to shift away from the Cascades
  but remains moderate elsewhere. With moisture remaining
  abundant, a deformation along the WA/ID wrapping back toward the
  Cascades and more viable vorticity lobes coming across the
  region, it looks like Thursday should have the broadest threat
  of showers and thunderstorms. At this time if there are
  organized/stronger thunderstorms it appears the best risk would
  be over southeast WA and the lower ID Panhandle Thursday
  afternoon. Thursday night into Friday the southern and dominate
  split of the upper trough sags into the Great Basin and the
  northern split moves into across the Canadian Rockies. This
  leaves a weaker deformation axis in the east and a southeastern
  flow that carries some weak vorticity lobes by the Blues and
  Camas Prairie. The highest shower chances will linger across
  southeast WA and the ID Panhandle. Some guidance, however, shows
  a threat of showers drifting as far west as the Okanogan
  Highlands and eastern Waterville Plateau. This doesn`t seem out
  of the question given the easterly flow so I expanded a slight
  threat here.

* Flooding risk: Through this time models depict abundant
  moisture nosing in, with PWATs rising to between 0.75 to 1.0
  inches Wednesday night into Thursday. This is about 200-300% of
  normal. So any showers or thunderstorms that develop could
  produce some heavy downpours. Given the flow pattern there is a
  risk of training showers, i.e. precipitation repeatedly going
  over the same spots. This could mean localized flooding,
  especially in burn scars or other more high-risk areas such as
  steeper terrain. The first threat will be near the Cascades
  Wednesday, then expand east Thursday before waning from the west
  Thursday evening.

* Winds: going into Thursday night and Friday the shifting
  pattern leads to an increasing gradient. Thursday night the
  gradient appears strongest from north to south, bringing some of
  the stronger winds to the Okanogan Valley through western
  Columbia Basin. Friday the stronger gradient comes in from
  northeast, expanding a broader stronger wind threat across north
  Idaho out through the Spokane area into the Columbia Basin. I
  raised speeds compared to the previous forecast. Average speeds
  10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. However localized specific
  details will differ.

From Saturday to Monday the Inland NW will be in a relatively
drier pattern, with the upper low well south of the region and the
jet stream well north of the Canadian border until about Sunday
night to Monday. Saturday winds will remain breezy to strong from
the northwest before abating through the later afternoon in
evening, as gradient start to slacken. An isolated shower threat
will linger near the central/southern ID Panhandle mountains, with
dry and mostly sunny weather elsewhere. Sunday looks mostly sunny
and dry. By Monday a system drops southeast from Canadian toward
the northern Rockies, bringing just a few more clouds and a slight
threat of showers near the northeast WA and ID Panhandle
mountains. Otherwise dry weather continues. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Conditions will remain VFR through 00Z wednesday.
/Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  81  54  78  54  67 /   0   0   0  20  50  70
Coeur d`Alene  47  82  49  79  51  69 /   0   0   0  20  50  60
Pullman        47  79  48  76  49  66 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       50  85  52  82  54  72 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Colville       44  85  47  80  47  70 /   0   0  10  20  50  80
Sandpoint      41  79  45  77  47  69 /   0   0   0  20  30  60
Kellogg        44  80  45  80  45  69 /   0   0   0  20  40  60
Moses Lake     46  84  51  79  50  70 /   0   0  10  30  60  60
Wenatchee      53  82  56  76  53  69 /   0  10  20  30  50  50
Omak           49  84  52  77  52  69 /   0  10  20  40  50  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 022247 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR W WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF AN EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHALLOW TOPPED CU
OVER THE PAC NW...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE SW OREGON. RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OR ANY STRIKES NEAR WRN WA. MOST MODELS INCLUDING THE
WRF-GFS/HRRR STILL SHOW INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHT QPF OVER THE CASCADES AND MAINLY W OF PUGET SOUND TOWARD
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD BE JUST LIGHT SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE BUT ALSO SHOW
SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A MINIMAL THREAT OF
THUNDER.

THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE PUSH TONIGHT
BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TUESDAY
MORNING. FORECAST GRADIENTS SUGGEST A MORE WLY PUSH WHICH MAY NOT
QUITE BRING STRATUS INTO SEATTLE BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. THE TROUGH
WILL UNDERGO SPLITTING AS IT PUSHES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERIOR W. THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL DIVE SE OFF
CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY. A WEAKER NRN STREAM TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL STALL OVER WRN WA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
AREA BUT STILL ONLY DOWN NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECWMF AGREE ON A RIDGE NOSING NE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND YET
ANOTHER WARMING TREND. BY SUNDAY...THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH A BRUSH BY TROUGH. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MOST LIKELY STILL BE DRY
BUT WOULD INDUCE A STRONG MARINE PUSH WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH
FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE A COMPROMISE BUT
TILTED TOWARD A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...TOWERING CU MIGHT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALONG THE COAST STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT COASTAL
STRATUS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE FROM A WEAK COLD FRONT HOWEVER ON TUESDAY.


KSEA...SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL MOSTLY STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH RISK OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING AROUND PUGET
SOUND...BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING. THE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
ONSHORE GRADIENTS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THERE WILL BE ONSHORE FLOW EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SMALL CRAFT
WESTERLIES A GOOD BET FOR THE STRAIT EACH DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE
OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE...
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...
BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...
OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987)...AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD
50.3 (1989).

INCLUDING THE RECORD WARM APRIL...SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM
MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 022247 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR W WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF AN EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHALLOW TOPPED CU
OVER THE PAC NW...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE SW OREGON. RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OR ANY STRIKES NEAR WRN WA. MOST MODELS INCLUDING THE
WRF-GFS/HRRR STILL SHOW INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHT QPF OVER THE CASCADES AND MAINLY W OF PUGET SOUND TOWARD
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD BE JUST LIGHT SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE BUT ALSO SHOW
SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A MINIMAL THREAT OF
THUNDER.

THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE PUSH TONIGHT
BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TUESDAY
MORNING. FORECAST GRADIENTS SUGGEST A MORE WLY PUSH WHICH MAY NOT
QUITE BRING STRATUS INTO SEATTLE BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. THE TROUGH
WILL UNDERGO SPLITTING AS IT PUSHES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERIOR W. THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL DIVE SE OFF
CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY. A WEAKER NRN STREAM TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL STALL OVER WRN WA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
AREA BUT STILL ONLY DOWN NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECWMF AGREE ON A RIDGE NOSING NE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND YET
ANOTHER WARMING TREND. BY SUNDAY...THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH A BRUSH BY TROUGH. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MOST LIKELY STILL BE DRY
BUT WOULD INDUCE A STRONG MARINE PUSH WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH
FURTHER N. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE A COMPROMISE BUT
TILTED TOWARD A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...TOWERING CU MIGHT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALONG THE COAST STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT COASTAL
STRATUS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE FROM A WEAK COLD FRONT HOWEVER ON TUESDAY.


KSEA...SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL MOSTLY STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH RISK OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING AROUND PUGET
SOUND...BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING. THE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
ONSHORE GRADIENTS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THERE WILL BE ONSHORE FLOW EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SMALL CRAFT
WESTERLIES A GOOD BET FOR THE STRAIT EACH DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE
OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE...
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...
BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...
OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987)...AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD
50.3 (1989).

INCLUDING THE RECORD WARM APRIL...SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM
MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 022145
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT MON MAY  2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
AGAIN POSSIBLY ON TUE. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RETURN TO INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE AND WED. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES THU AND FRI. THEN...LIKE PAST WEEKENDS...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THUR). UPPER LOW PRES OFF THE CALIF
COAST IS MAINTAINING S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TUE. WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER NW CALIF WILL LIFT N THIS EVENING.
ALREADY HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NE CALIF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT N/NW
THIS EVENING...WITH NEWER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE OREGON CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CASCADES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE COAST RANGE
LATER THIS EVENING. SUSPECT THIS WILL SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE
CASCADES...THEN SEE SHOWERS POP OVER THE COAST RANGE LATER THIS
EVENING. OF INTEREST WILL BE THE THERMAL TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW SLOWLY
MOVING INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. AS
SUCH...THIS MAY ACT MUCH LIKE A COLD FRONT...AND ENHANCE THE LIFTING
AND RESULTANT SHOWERS OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS EVENING. STILL CAN
NOT ELIMINATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MOST AREAS AWAY THE
CASCADES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...RATHER PLEASANT EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG THE S OREGON COAST. AT 2 PM...LEADING EDGE
WAS ABOUT 10 MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLORENCE. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS UP TO LINCOLN CITY THROUGH 8 PM...
WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE
ONSHORE GRADIENT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE...SO WOULD EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PUSH INLAND PAST THE COAST RANGE.

AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT SITS
FARTHER OFFSHORE DRAWS CLOSER...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUE. STILL DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. BUT
INSTABILITY NOT LOOKING SO GOOD. STILL...WILL KEEP SOME MINOR THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES CREST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW WED AND THU WED... WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. WILL SEE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...BUT ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW LIKELY TO FORM OFF CALIF ON THU.
OVERALL...WED AND THU WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS
FOR THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES.
NOT MUCH THREAT OF THUNDER DUE TO LOT OF CLOUD COVER.WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES CREST FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS.   CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SWITCHING ONSHORE. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
BETWEEN 01Z AND 08Z TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TUE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS TURNS
ONSHORE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
AWAY FROM KPDX.
&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE BACK OFF WINDS WITH THE REVERSAL SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS. A
WESTERLY SWELL HAS PUSHED SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT BUT SHOULD RELAX
TO 6 TO 7 FT TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY. STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ON TAP
DURING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WHILE
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 FT...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME
ESPECIALLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS FRESH SWELL/WIND WAVE DOMINATE DUE TO PERIODS OF NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022112
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
212 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to shift east tonight and Tuesday.
Expect one more day of warm and dry conditions on Tuesday. By
late Tuesday and lasting until Friday a slow moving weather
disturbance will move through the region. This will result in a
cooler, unsettled pattern with a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by Wednesday and Thursday.
Improving conditions will begin again late on Friday, lasting into
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night: The axis of the ridge of high
pressure has moved into western Montana and SE B.C., meanwhile a
deep upper level low has moved inside 140W. This dance, as the
ridge shifts east and the upper low moves inland will play out
over the next several days. Through the short term the resultant
southerly flow will pump Pacific moisture into the region, mainly
along and west of the Cascades, and mainly above 700mb through
Tuesday mid-day or so. As the moisture deepens Tuesday afternoon
and evening it will move east of the crest, but mainly west of the
Columbia river along the east slopes of the Cascades. The surface
and mid levels will destabilize Tuesday and Tuesday night, but
there is no real strong forcing mechanism save for orographics and
the heating of the day. The chance for precipitation has been
bumped up along the crest just due to the shear magnitude of the
moisture advection, and while there is a chance for thunderstorms
the confidence in some moderate showers is much higher than
lightning. Temperatures on Tuesday will likely be the warmest of
the week with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. This may be mitigated
a bit by cloud cover, but the rapid snow melt due to the warm
temperatures of late will continue.

* Impacts: Low at this time. Rain fall amounts will only be
  around a tenth or so, but this will just help to moisten the
  soils for additional rain and snow melt for Wednesday and
  Thursday. Tobin

Wednesday through Monday: Shower and thunderstorm chances
migrate across the Inland NW through Friday, before drier weather
returns for the weekend. Between Tuesday night and Thursday a
stretching/splitting upper trough edges from the coastline to the
Cascades, before it starts to shift out Friday. This slow-moving
boundary and smaller-scale disturbances tracking up from the south
will work with instability and deepening moisture to bring the
shower and thunderstorm chances.

* Precipitation evolution: Wednesday the best forcing and highest
  threat of precipitation will be near the Cascades and northern
  mountains. Precipitation elsewhere will be more isolated to
  scattered in nature. Wednesday night the broader surface-based
  instability abates, but some elevated instability continues
  across south-central/southeastern WA into the lower Panhandle.
  At the same time a more robust vorticity max starts in from the
  south and the best surge of moisture starts in from the south.
  This will lead to the next round of precipitation developing
  from the south through the night into Thursday morning. Thursday
  the focus for instability begins to shift away from the Cascades
  but remains moderate elsewhere. With moisture remaining
  abundant, a deformation along the WA/ID wrapping back toward the
  Cascades and more viable vorticity lobes coming across the
  region, it looks like Thursday should have the broadest threat
  of showers and thunderstorms. At this time if there are
  organized/stronger thunderstorms it appears the best risk would
  be over southeast WA and the lower ID Panhandle Thursday
  afternoon. Thursday night into Friday the southern and dominate
  split of the upper trough sags into the Great Basin and the
  northern split moves into across the Canadian Rockies. This
  leaves a weaker deformation axis in the east and a southeastern
  flow that carries some weak vorticity lobes by the Blues and
  Camas Prairie. The highest shower chances will linger across
  southeast WA and the ID Panhandle. Some guidance, however, shows
  a threat of showers drifting as far west as the Okanogan
  Highlands and eastern Waterville Plateau. This doesn`t seem out
  of the question given the easterly flow so I expanded a slight
  threat here.

* Flooding risk: Through this time models depict abundant
  moisture nosing in, with PWATs rising to between 0.75 to 1.0
  inches Wednesday night into Thursday. This is about 200-300% of
  normal. So any showers or thunderstorms that develop could
  produce some heavy downpours. Given the flow pattern there is a
  risk of training showers, i.e. precipitation repeatedly going
  over the same spots. This could mean localized flooding,
  especially in burn scars or other more high-risk areas such as
  steeper terrain. The first threat will be near the Cascades
  Wednesday, then expand east Thursday before waning from the west
  Thursday evening.

* Winds: going into Thursday night and Friday the shifting
  pattern leads to an increasing gradient. Thursday night the
  gradient appears strongest from north to south, bringing some of
  the stronger winds to the Okanogan Valley through western
  Columbia Basin. Friday the stronger gradient comes in from
  northeast, expanding a broader stronger wind threat across north
  Idaho out through the Spokane area into the Columbia Basin. I
  raised speeds compared to the previous forecast. Average speeds
  10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. However localized specific
  details will differ.

From Saturday to Monday the Inland NW will be in a relatively
drier pattern, with the upper low well south of the region and the
jet stream well north of the Canadian border until about Sunday
night to Monday. Saturday winds will remain breezy to strong from
the northwest before abating through the later afternoon in
evening, as gradient start to slacken. An isolated shower threat
will linger near the central/southern ID Panhandle mountains, with
dry and mostly sunny weather elsewhere. Sunday looks mostly sunny
and dry. By Monday a system drops southeast from Canadian toward
the northern Rockies, bringing just a few more clouds and a slight
threat of showers near the northeast WA and ID Panhandle
mountains. Otherwise dry weather continues. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Some high thin clouds may get over the strong ridge that
is over the region this afternoon and tonight...but should have
little effect on the TAf sites. Conditions will remain VFR
through Tuesday at 12z. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  81  54  78  54  67 /   0   0   0  20  50  70
Coeur d`Alene  47  82  49  79  51  69 /   0   0   0  20  50  60
Pullman        47  79  48  76  49  66 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       50  85  52  82  54  72 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Colville       44  85  47  80  47  70 /   0   0  10  20  50  80
Sandpoint      41  79  45  77  47  69 /   0   0   0  20  30  60
Kellogg        44  80  45  80  45  69 /   0   0   0  20  40  60
Moses Lake     46  84  51  79  50  70 /   0   0  10  30  60  60
Wenatchee      53  82  56  76  53  69 /   0  10  20  30  50  50
Omak           49  84  52  77  52  69 /   0  10  20  40  50  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022112
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
212 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to shift east tonight and Tuesday.
Expect one more day of warm and dry conditions on Tuesday. By
late Tuesday and lasting until Friday a slow moving weather
disturbance will move through the region. This will result in a
cooler, unsettled pattern with a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by Wednesday and Thursday.
Improving conditions will begin again late on Friday, lasting into
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night: The axis of the ridge of high
pressure has moved into western Montana and SE B.C., meanwhile a
deep upper level low has moved inside 140W. This dance, as the
ridge shifts east and the upper low moves inland will play out
over the next several days. Through the short term the resultant
southerly flow will pump Pacific moisture into the region, mainly
along and west of the Cascades, and mainly above 700mb through
Tuesday mid-day or so. As the moisture deepens Tuesday afternoon
and evening it will move east of the crest, but mainly west of the
Columbia river along the east slopes of the Cascades. The surface
and mid levels will destabilize Tuesday and Tuesday night, but
there is no real strong forcing mechanism save for orographics and
the heating of the day. The chance for precipitation has been
bumped up along the crest just due to the shear magnitude of the
moisture advection, and while there is a chance for thunderstorms
the confidence in some moderate showers is much higher than
lightning. Temperatures on Tuesday will likely be the warmest of
the week with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. This may be mitigated
a bit by cloud cover, but the rapid snow melt due to the warm
temperatures of late will continue.

* Impacts: Low at this time. Rain fall amounts will only be
  around a tenth or so, but this will just help to moisten the
  soils for additional rain and snow melt for Wednesday and
  Thursday. Tobin

Wednesday through Monday: Shower and thunderstorm chances
migrate across the Inland NW through Friday, before drier weather
returns for the weekend. Between Tuesday night and Thursday a
stretching/splitting upper trough edges from the coastline to the
Cascades, before it starts to shift out Friday. This slow-moving
boundary and smaller-scale disturbances tracking up from the south
will work with instability and deepening moisture to bring the
shower and thunderstorm chances.

* Precipitation evolution: Wednesday the best forcing and highest
  threat of precipitation will be near the Cascades and northern
  mountains. Precipitation elsewhere will be more isolated to
  scattered in nature. Wednesday night the broader surface-based
  instability abates, but some elevated instability continues
  across south-central/southeastern WA into the lower Panhandle.
  At the same time a more robust vorticity max starts in from the
  south and the best surge of moisture starts in from the south.
  This will lead to the next round of precipitation developing
  from the south through the night into Thursday morning. Thursday
  the focus for instability begins to shift away from the Cascades
  but remains moderate elsewhere. With moisture remaining
  abundant, a deformation along the WA/ID wrapping back toward the
  Cascades and more viable vorticity lobes coming across the
  region, it looks like Thursday should have the broadest threat
  of showers and thunderstorms. At this time if there are
  organized/stronger thunderstorms it appears the best risk would
  be over southeast WA and the lower ID Panhandle Thursday
  afternoon. Thursday night into Friday the southern and dominate
  split of the upper trough sags into the Great Basin and the
  northern split moves into across the Canadian Rockies. This
  leaves a weaker deformation axis in the east and a southeastern
  flow that carries some weak vorticity lobes by the Blues and
  Camas Prairie. The highest shower chances will linger across
  southeast WA and the ID Panhandle. Some guidance, however, shows
  a threat of showers drifting as far west as the Okanogan
  Highlands and eastern Waterville Plateau. This doesn`t seem out
  of the question given the easterly flow so I expanded a slight
  threat here.

* Flooding risk: Through this time models depict abundant
  moisture nosing in, with PWATs rising to between 0.75 to 1.0
  inches Wednesday night into Thursday. This is about 200-300% of
  normal. So any showers or thunderstorms that develop could
  produce some heavy downpours. Given the flow pattern there is a
  risk of training showers, i.e. precipitation repeatedly going
  over the same spots. This could mean localized flooding,
  especially in burn scars or other more high-risk areas such as
  steeper terrain. The first threat will be near the Cascades
  Wednesday, then expand east Thursday before waning from the west
  Thursday evening.

* Winds: going into Thursday night and Friday the shifting
  pattern leads to an increasing gradient. Thursday night the
  gradient appears strongest from north to south, bringing some of
  the stronger winds to the Okanogan Valley through western
  Columbia Basin. Friday the stronger gradient comes in from
  northeast, expanding a broader stronger wind threat across north
  Idaho out through the Spokane area into the Columbia Basin. I
  raised speeds compared to the previous forecast. Average speeds
  10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. However localized specific
  details will differ.

From Saturday to Monday the Inland NW will be in a relatively
drier pattern, with the upper low well south of the region and the
jet stream well north of the Canadian border until about Sunday
night to Monday. Saturday winds will remain breezy to strong from
the northwest before abating through the later afternoon in
evening, as gradient start to slacken. An isolated shower threat
will linger near the central/southern ID Panhandle mountains, with
dry and mostly sunny weather elsewhere. Sunday looks mostly sunny
and dry. By Monday a system drops southeast from Canadian toward
the northern Rockies, bringing just a few more clouds and a slight
threat of showers near the northeast WA and ID Panhandle
mountains. Otherwise dry weather continues. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Some high thin clouds may get over the strong ridge that
is over the region this afternoon and tonight...but should have
little effect on the TAf sites. Conditions will remain VFR
through Tuesday at 12z. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  81  54  78  54  67 /   0   0   0  20  50  70
Coeur d`Alene  47  82  49  79  51  69 /   0   0   0  20  50  60
Pullman        47  79  48  76  49  66 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       50  85  52  82  54  72 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Colville       44  85  47  80  47  70 /   0   0  10  20  50  80
Sandpoint      41  79  45  77  47  69 /   0   0   0  20  30  60
Kellogg        44  80  45  80  45  69 /   0   0   0  20  40  60
Moses Lake     46  84  51  79  50  70 /   0   0  10  30  60  60
Wenatchee      53  82  56  76  53  69 /   0  10  20  30  50  50
Omak           49  84  52  77  52  69 /   0  10  20  40  50  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021751
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1051 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the region today resulting in above
normal temperatures. The high pressure weather pattern shift east
on Tuesday. This will result in a cooler, unsettled pattern. There
will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally
heavy rain by Wednesday, lasting into Thursday. Improving
conditions will begin again on Friday, lasting into the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
No big changes to the current forecast. Some slightly higher pops
were added to the Cascade crest for this evening, but thinking at
this time is it will just be some increasing clouds near the
crest. Some minor tweaks were made to high temperatures and cloud
cover as well.

We are looking at one more warm and dry day on Tuesday. Then the
region will come under the influence of a deep and slow moving
upper level disturbance. This disturbance will move slowly through
the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday and will result in much
cooler temperatures and a good chance of widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms. The main impact with these storms will be
moderate to heavy precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Some high thin clouds may get over the strong ridge that
is over the region this afternoon and tonight...but should have
little effect on the TAf sites. Conditions will remain VFR
through Tuesday at 12z. Tobin




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  52  81  54  77  53 /   0   0   0   0  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  47  82  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  50
Pullman        76  47  79  48  75  48 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       82  50  85  52  81  53 /   0   0   0  10  20  50
Colville       83  44  85  47  80  47 /   0   0   0  10  20  50
Sandpoint      78  41  79  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Kellogg        79  44  80  45  80  45 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Moses Lake     83  46  84  51  78  49 /   0   0   0  10  30  60
Wenatchee      82  53  82  56  74  52 /   0   0  10  20  50  50
Omak           82  49  84  52  76  51 /   0   0  10  20  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021627 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO APPROACH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
COOL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EWD AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING. THE UPPER
FLOW IS NOW SOUTHERLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING 130 W OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW THERMALLY LOW
PRESSURE CLOSING OFF AND MOVING NWD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ONE MORE VERY
WARM DAY...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
COMMON AROUND THE INTERIOR. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HINDER
TEMPERATURES BUT LOW 70S WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THERE AS
WELL.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCATION/TIMING OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ALTOCU ALONG AND W OF THE OREGON AND
S WA CASCADES THIS MORNING LIFTING NWD WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF
INSTABILITY IN MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS OFTEN SIGNALS A THREAT OF HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS...SOMETIMES OVER THE LOWLANDS IF THE FLOW IS
SOUTHEASTERLY. MODELS DO SHOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 700 MB WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUDS TODAY. GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY INDICATING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE
LOWLANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH MODEL SURFACE BASED LI`S
BELOW ZERO BY 00Z OVER INTERIOR WRN WA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/NAM
TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
ASSOCIATED THIS INSTABILITY WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE CASCADES AND FAR S INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
LIFT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE CASCADES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SURELY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF
THE CASCADES WITH DEBRIS CLOUD AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION CLOSELY.

AN ONSHORE PUSH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MODELS IMPLY
LOW STRATUS ONLY REACHING SOME OF THE INTERIOR. FRONTAL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A
DROP OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEGREES OVER THE EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.
COOLER MARINE AIR WILL NOT YET REACH THE HIGHER CASCADES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT PUSHING EWD BY EVENING AS
THE ONSHORE PUSH INCREASES.

MODELS SHOW SPLIT FLOW TAKING THE SRN BRANCH CLOSED UPPER LOW
FEATURE WELL SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN
STALLED SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST. HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW 60S. MERCER

.LONG TERM...
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WA WILL LIE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND CA ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BUT THE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SIGNAL A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
WAS NOT HIGH FOR DAY 7. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAD THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS HAD A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CANADA. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE FORECAST IS TOO WARM AND
SUNNY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE TODAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHROE WILL GET CLOSER TO THE REGION
AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE ON THE COAST...
BUT A FEW PATCHES MIGHT PUSH INTO PARTS OF SW WA AND IN THE STRAIT.

KSEA...CLEAR TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE THIS EVENING...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE
GRADIENTS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE
OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE...
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...
BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...
OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987)...AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD
50.3 (1989).

INCLUDING THE RECORD WARM APRIL...SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM
MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021623 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO APPROACH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
COOL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EWD AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING. THE UPPER
FLOW IS NOW SOUTHERLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING 130 W OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW THERMALLY LOW
PRESSURE CLOSING OFF AND MOVING NWD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ONE MORE VERY
WARM DAY...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
COMMON AROUND THE INTERIOR. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HINDER
TEMPERATURES BUT LOW 70S WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THERE AS
WELL.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCATION/TIMING OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ALTOCU ALONG AND W OF THE OREGON AND
S WA CASCADES THIS MORNING LIFTING NWD WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF
INSTABILITY IN MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS OFTEN SIGNALS A THREAT OF HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS...SOMETIMES OVER THE LOWLANDS IF THE FLOW IS
SOUTHEASTERLY. MODELS DO SHOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 700 MB WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUDS TODAY. GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY INDICATING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE
LOWLANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH MODEL SURFACE BASED LI`S
BELOW ZERO BY 00Z OVER INTERIOR WRN WA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/NAM
TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
ASSOCIATED THIS INSTABILITY WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE CASCADES AND FAR S INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
LIFT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE CASCADES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SURELY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF
THE CASCADES WITH DEBRIS CLOUD AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION CLOSELY.

AN ONSHORE PUSH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MODELS IMPLY
LOW STRATUS ONLY REACHING SOME OF THE INTERIOR. FRONTAL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A
DROP OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEGREES OVER THE EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.
COOLER MARINE AIR WILL NOT YET REACH THE HIGHER CASCADES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT PUSHING EWD BY EVENING AS
THE ONSHORE PUSH INCREASES.

MODELS SHOW SPLIT FLOW TAKING THE SRN BRANCH CLOSED UPPER LOW
FEATURE WELL SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN
STALLED SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST. HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW 60S. MERCER

.LONG TERM...
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WA WILL LIE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND CA ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BUT THE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SIGNAL A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
WAS NOT HIGH FOR DAY 7. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAD THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS HAD A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CANADA. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE FORECAST IS TOO WARM AND
SUNNY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE TODAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHROE WILL GET CLOSER TO THE REGION
AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE ON THE COAST...
BUT A FEW PATCHES MIGHT PUSH INTO PARTS OF SW WA AND IN THE STRAIT.

KSEA...CLEAR TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE THIS EVENING...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE
GRADIENTS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE
OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE...
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...
BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...
OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987)...AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD
50.3 (1989).

INCLUDING THE RECORD WARM APRIL...SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM
MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021615 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO APPROACH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
COOL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EWD AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING. THE UPPER
FLOW IS NOW SOUTHERLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING 130 W OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW THERMALLY LOW
PRESSURE CLOSING OFF AND MOVING NWD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ONE MORE VERY
WARM DAY...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
COMMON AROUND THE INTERIOR. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HINDER
TEMPERATURES BUT LOW 70S WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THERE AS
WELL.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCATION/TIMING OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ALTOCU ALONG AND W OF THE OREGON AND
S WA CASCADES THIS MORNING LIFTING NWD WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF
INSTABILITY IN MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS OFTEN SIGNALS A THREAT OF HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS...SOMETIMES OVER THE LOWLANDS IF THE FLOW IS
SOUTHEASTERLY. MODELS DO SHOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 700 MB WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUDS TODAY. GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY INDICATING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE
LOWLANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH MODEL SURFACE BASED LI`S
BELOW ZERO BY 00Z OVER INTERIOR WRN WA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/NAM
TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
ASSOCIATED THIS INSTABILITY WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE CASCADES AND FAR S INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
LIFT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE CASCADES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SURELY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF
THE CASCADES WITH DEBRIS CLOUD AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION CLOSELY.

AN ONSHORE PUSH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MODELS IMPLY
LOW STRATUS ONLY REACHING SOME OF THE INTERIOR. FRONTAL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A
DROP OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEGREES OVER THE EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.
COOLER MARINE AIR WILL NOT YET REACH THE HIGHER CASCADES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT PUSHING EWD BY EVENING AS
THE ONSHORE PUSH INCREASES.

MODELS SHOW SPLIT FLOW TAKING THE SRN BRANCH CLOSED UPPER LOW
FEATURE WELL SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN
STALLED SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST. HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW 60S. MERCER







.LONG TERM...
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WA WILL LIE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND CA ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BUT THE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SIGNAL A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
WAS NOT HIGH FOR DAY 7. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAD THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS HAD A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CANADA. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE FORECAST IS TOO WARM AND
SUNNY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE TODAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHROE WILL GET CLOSER TO THE REGION
AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE ON THE COAST...
BUT A FEW PATCHES MIGHT PUSH INTO PARTS OF SW WA AND IN THE STRAIT.

KSEA...CLEAR TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE THIS EVENING...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE
GRADIENTS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE
OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE...
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...
BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...
OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987)...AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD
50.3 (1989).

INCLUDING THE RECORD WARM APRIL...SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM
MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021615 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO APPROACH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
COOL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EWD AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING. THE UPPER
FLOW IS NOW SOUTHERLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING 130 W OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW THERMALLY LOW
PRESSURE CLOSING OFF AND MOVING NWD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ONE MORE VERY
WARM DAY...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
COMMON AROUND THE INTERIOR. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HINDER
TEMPERATURES BUT LOW 70S WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THERE AS
WELL.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCATION/TIMING OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ALTOCU ALONG AND W OF THE OREGON AND
S WA CASCADES THIS MORNING LIFTING NWD WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF
INSTABILITY IN MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS OFTEN SIGNALS A THREAT OF HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS...SOMETIMES OVER THE LOWLANDS IF THE FLOW IS
SOUTHEASTERLY. MODELS DO SHOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 700 MB WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUDS TODAY. GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY INDICATING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF THE
LOWLANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH MODEL SURFACE BASED LI`S
BELOW ZERO BY 00Z OVER INTERIOR WRN WA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/NAM
TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
ASSOCIATED THIS INSTABILITY WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE CASCADES AND FAR S INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
LIFT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE CASCADES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SURELY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF
THE CASCADES WITH DEBRIS CLOUD AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION CLOSELY.

AN ONSHORE PUSH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MODELS IMPLY
LOW STRATUS ONLY REACHING SOME OF THE INTERIOR. FRONTAL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A
DROP OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEGREES OVER THE EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.
COOLER MARINE AIR WILL NOT YET REACH THE HIGHER CASCADES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT PUSHING EWD BY EVENING AS
THE ONSHORE PUSH INCREASES.

MODELS SHOW SPLIT FLOW TAKING THE SRN BRANCH CLOSED UPPER LOW
FEATURE WELL SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN
STALLED SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST. HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW 60S. MERCER







.LONG TERM...
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WA WILL LIE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFS OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND CA ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BUT THE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SIGNAL A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
WAS NOT HIGH FOR DAY 7. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAD THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS HAD A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CANADA. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE FORECAST IS TOO WARM AND
SUNNY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE TODAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHROE WILL GET CLOSER TO THE REGION
AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE ON THE COAST...
BUT A FEW PATCHES MIGHT PUSH INTO PARTS OF SW WA AND IN THE STRAIT.

KSEA...CLEAR TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE THIS EVENING...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE
GRADIENTS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE
OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE...
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...
BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...
OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987)...AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD
50.3 (1989).

INCLUDING THE RECORD WARM APRIL...SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM
MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021540
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
845 AM PDT MON MAY  2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS DOMINANT OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PAC NW. CHANGES WILL
BEGIN LATER TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHERLY...BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE...FIRST
COOLING OFF THE COAST TODAY...THEN INLAND AREAS TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE TO GRIDS/TRENDS.
THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF QUITE WARM FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR ALL BUT
THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE 1-2 DEG
C WARMER THAN SUNDAY...MEANWHILE GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY FOR MOST
INLAND VALLEYS...POSSIBLY BREAKING A COUPLE RECORDS.

DECIDED TO BUMP UP FCST HIGHS A BIT ALONG THE COAST AS IT MAY TAKE A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE SEABREEZE TO KICK IN. THE BULK OF THE
ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS JUST NOW APPROACHING CAPE
MENDOCINO IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO THAT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW
HOURS TO ARRIVE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AS WELL. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR OFFSHORE FLOW IS WANING AS
SPOKANE-NORTH BEND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DOWN TO 4.3 MB AS OF 2 AM.
ALL THIS SHOULD ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TO MIGRATE ONSHORE TODAY
BUT AFTER A SLIGHT DELAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CROSS THE COAST RANGE...
BUT SHOULD DO SO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MARINE
AIR FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH MAY SERVE
AS A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
ONE BELIEVES. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST
ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
VARYING DEGREES OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING
LITTLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF CIN FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. MOST CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST CELLS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LANE/DOUGLAS CASCADES SOMETIME AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE COAST
RANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MARINE PUSH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH BASES INITIALLY...WITH AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE STRONGER
CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONGER-THAN-USUAL OUTFLOW... PERHAPS GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE
S-SE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE CASCADES
TO DRIFT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO JUST
ABOUT ANYONE IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SEEMED TO BACK OFF ON THIS A BIT.

06Z NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TUESDAY AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD
BRING A 10-15 DEGREE COOL DOWN TO INLAND AREAS TUESDAY THEN ANOTHER
5-10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WED. THE REMNANTS OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PLENTY OF
SHOWERS TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
THUNDER TO NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND AREAS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CUTTING OFF AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...BUT TAPER OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES HOWEVER...GIVEN BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 70S INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE
IN THE WARMING AIR MASS.  CULLEN

&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL INLAND TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW GIVES WAY TO INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW LATE MONDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT 21Z MON THRU 09Z TUE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE
FLOW DECREASES OVER THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AWAY FROM KPDX.

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF GUSTY 20 KT
SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10 AND 30 MILES
OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD PUSH SEAS TEMPORARILY INTO THE 7
TO 8 FT RANGE TODAY...BUT SEAS LOOK TO RELAX TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30
KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ON TAP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WHILE SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10
FT...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME ESPECIALLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS FRESH SWELL/WIND WAVE DOMINATE DUE
TO PERIODS OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021540
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
845 AM PDT MON MAY  2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS DOMINANT OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PAC NW. CHANGES WILL
BEGIN LATER TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHERLY...BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE...FIRST
COOLING OFF THE COAST TODAY...THEN INLAND AREAS TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE TO GRIDS/TRENDS.
THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF QUITE WARM FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR ALL BUT
THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE 1-2 DEG
C WARMER THAN SUNDAY...MEANWHILE GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY FOR MOST
INLAND VALLEYS...POSSIBLY BREAKING A COUPLE RECORDS.

DECIDED TO BUMP UP FCST HIGHS A BIT ALONG THE COAST AS IT MAY TAKE A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE SEABREEZE TO KICK IN. THE BULK OF THE
ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS JUST NOW APPROACHING CAPE
MENDOCINO IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO THAT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW
HOURS TO ARRIVE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AS WELL. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR OFFSHORE FLOW IS WANING AS
SPOKANE-NORTH BEND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DOWN TO 4.3 MB AS OF 2 AM.
ALL THIS SHOULD ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TO MIGRATE ONSHORE TODAY
BUT AFTER A SLIGHT DELAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CROSS THE COAST RANGE...
BUT SHOULD DO SO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MARINE
AIR FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH MAY SERVE
AS A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
ONE BELIEVES. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST
ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
VARYING DEGREES OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING
LITTLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF CIN FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. MOST CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST CELLS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LANE/DOUGLAS CASCADES SOMETIME AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE COAST
RANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MARINE PUSH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH BASES INITIALLY...WITH AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE STRONGER
CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONGER-THAN-USUAL OUTFLOW... PERHAPS GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE
S-SE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE CASCADES
TO DRIFT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO JUST
ABOUT ANYONE IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SEEMED TO BACK OFF ON THIS A BIT.

06Z NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TUESDAY AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD
BRING A 10-15 DEGREE COOL DOWN TO INLAND AREAS TUESDAY THEN ANOTHER
5-10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WED. THE REMNANTS OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PLENTY OF
SHOWERS TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
THUNDER TO NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND AREAS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CUTTING OFF AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...BUT TAPER OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES HOWEVER...GIVEN BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 70S INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE
IN THE WARMING AIR MASS.  CULLEN

&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL INLAND TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW GIVES WAY TO INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW LATE MONDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT 21Z MON THRU 09Z TUE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE
FLOW DECREASES OVER THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AWAY FROM KPDX.

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF GUSTY 20 KT
SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10 AND 30 MILES
OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD PUSH SEAS TEMPORARILY INTO THE 7
TO 8 FT RANGE TODAY...BUT SEAS LOOK TO RELAX TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30
KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ON TAP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WHILE SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10
FT...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME ESPECIALLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS FRESH SWELL/WIND WAVE DOMINATE DUE
TO PERIODS OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021456
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
752 AM PDT MON MAY  2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS DOMINANT OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PAC NW. CHANGES WILL
BEGIN LATER TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHERLY...BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE...FIRST
COOLING OFF THE COAST TODAY...THEN INLAND AREAS TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE TO GRIDS/TRENDS.
THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF QUITE WARM FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR ALL BUT
THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE 1-2 DEG
C WARMER THAN SUNDAY...MEANWHILE GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY FOR MOST
INLAND VALLEYS...POSSIBLY BREAKING A COUPLE RECORDS.

DECIDED TO BUMP UP FCST HIGHS A BIT ALONG THE COAST AS IT MAY TAKE A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE SEABREEZE TO KICK IN. THE BULK OF THE
ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS JUST NOW APPROACHING CAPE
MENDOCINO IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO THAT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW
HOURS TO ARRIVE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AS WELL. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR OFFSHORE FLOW IS WANING AS
SPOKANE-NORTH BEND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DOWN TO 4.3 MB AS OF 2 AM.
ALL THIS SHOULD ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TO MIGRATE ONSHORE TODAY
BUT AFTER A SLIGHT DELAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CROSS THE COAST RANGE...
BUT SHOULD DO SO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MARINE
AIR FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH MAY SERVE
AS A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
ONE BELIEVES. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST
ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
VARYING DEGREES OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING
LITTLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF CIN FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. MOST CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST CELLS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LANE/DOUGLAS CASCADES SOMETIME AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE COAST
RANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MARINE PUSH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH BASES INITIALLY...WITH AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE STRONGER
CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONGER-THAN-USUAL OUTFLOW... PERHAPS GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE
S-SE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE CASCADES
TO DRIFT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO JUST
ABOUT ANYONE IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SEEMED TO BACK OFF ON THIS A BIT.

06Z NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TUESDAY AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD
BRING A 10-15 DEGREE COOL DOWN TO INLAND AREAS TUESDAY THEN ANOTHER
5-10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WED. THE REMNANTS OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PLENTY OF
SHOWERS TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
THUNDER TO NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND AREAS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CUTTING OFF AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...BUT TAPER OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES HOWEVER...GIVEN BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 70S INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE
IN THE WARMING AIR MASS.  CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL INLAND TAF
SITES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW GIVES WAY TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW LATE MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE MARINE STRATUS APPROACHING THE
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT 21Z MON THRU 09Z TUE WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS WELL THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASES OVER THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AWAY FROM KPDX.

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS WORKING NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. AS OF 2 AM SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT HAVE REACHED NEWPORT
AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF GUSTY 20 KT SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10 AND 30 MILES OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY
SWELL SHOULD PUSH SEAS TEMPORARILY INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE
TODAY...BUT SEAS LOOK TO RELAX TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO
30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS. WHILE SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 FT FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME ESPECIALLY STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SEAS BECOME FRESH
SWELL/WIND DOMINATED DUE TO PERIODS OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND. /MH /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021213 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
513 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

CORRECTED A MINOR TYPO IN THE LAST PARAGRAPH OF THE LONG TERM
SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO APPROACH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
COOL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SOME MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR A RISK OF TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE TSTMS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN CA YESTERDAY. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHERLY...
SHOULD EXPECT THE TSTMS TO BE OVER NORTHERN OREGON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
THE TSTM THREAT. THE SREF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A THREAT OF TSTMS
OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CWA THIS EVENING. IT EVEN INDICATED A
RISK OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS TIMING
APPEARED TOO QUICK. AT ANY RATE...THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AFTER THE 1200 UTC MODEL CYCLE
ARRIVES.

THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT ONSHORE TONIGHT. THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
GFS MODEL WAS PREDICTING THE KUIL TO KBLI PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE
PLUS 4.1 MB AT 5 PM PDT TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPS ON TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF
THE CURRENT HOT SPELL. IT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AT MOST
PLACES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ANTICIPATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE SPLITTING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS TROF WILL HEAD TOWARDS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
CALIFORNIA.

.LONG TERM...
WA WILL LIE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND OVER
THE ROCKIES AND TROFS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND CA ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BUT THE
THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SIGNAL A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
WAS NOT HIGH FOR DAY 7. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAD THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS HAD A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CANADA. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE FORECAST IS TOO WARM AND
SUNNY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...HOWEVER...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY START TO FILTER IN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  SMR

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON 7 TO 10 KNOTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EASING DOWN TO 5-8 KNOTS. SMR

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THAT GALE FORCE WINDS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST RECENT
RUNS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION WITH ONLY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT NEXT RUN
COMES UP WITH...BUT AT LEAST SOME SORT OF HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SMR

&&

.CLIMATE...
APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE
OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE...
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...
BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...
OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987)...AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD
50.3 (1989).

INCLUDING THE RECORD WARM APRIL...SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM
MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021213 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
513 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

CORRECTED A MINOR TYPO IN THE LAST PARAGRAPH OF THE LONG TERM
SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO APPROACH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
COOL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SOME MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR A RISK OF TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE TSTMS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN CA YESTERDAY. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHERLY...
SHOULD EXPECT THE TSTMS TO BE OVER NORTHERN OREGON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
THE TSTM THREAT. THE SREF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A THREAT OF TSTMS
OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CWA THIS EVENING. IT EVEN INDICATED A
RISK OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS TIMING
APPEARED TOO QUICK. AT ANY RATE...THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AFTER THE 1200 UTC MODEL CYCLE
ARRIVES.

THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT ONSHORE TONIGHT. THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
GFS MODEL WAS PREDICTING THE KUIL TO KBLI PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE
PLUS 4.1 MB AT 5 PM PDT TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPS ON TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF
THE CURRENT HOT SPELL. IT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AT MOST
PLACES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ANTICIPATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE SPLITTING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS TROF WILL HEAD TOWARDS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
CALIFORNIA.

.LONG TERM...
WA WILL LIE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND OVER
THE ROCKIES AND TROFS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND CA ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BUT THE
THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SIGNAL A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
WAS NOT HIGH FOR DAY 7. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAD THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS HAD A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CANADA. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE FORECAST IS TOO WARM AND
SUNNY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...HOWEVER...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY START TO FILTER IN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  SMR

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON 7 TO 10 KNOTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EASING DOWN TO 5-8 KNOTS. SMR

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THAT GALE FORCE WINDS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST RECENT
RUNS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION WITH ONLY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT NEXT RUN
COMES UP WITH...BUT AT LEAST SOME SORT OF HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SMR

&&

.CLIMATE...
APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE
OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE...
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...
BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...
OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987)...AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD
50.3 (1989).

INCLUDING THE RECORD WARM APRIL...SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM
MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021121
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
421 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the region today resulting in above
normal temperatures. The warm temperatures will melt mountain
snow and cause rivers to rise. The high pressure weather pattern
shifts east on Tuesday. This will result in a cooler, unsettled
pattern. There will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms
with locally heavy rain by Wednesday, lasting into Thursday.
Improving conditions will begin again on Friday, lasting into the
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...High pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Inland Northwest today and much of Tuesday before
a Pacific trough will start to affect the region. Dry conditions and
above normal temperatures will prevail until a frontal system starts
to take aim on the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. This system will
have a tap into a nice fetch of Pacific moisture with Pwats of
around an inch. This plume of moisture will reach the Cascade crest
Tuesday morning and start to spread east Tuesday afternoon. Daytime
heating will provide instability and models are showing a few
hundred J/kg CAPE, which should be sufficient to generate isolated
thunderstorms for the late afternoon and evening hours. The upper
jet associated with the trough will be oriented north-south, which
will mean the front will be slow to translate east across the
forecast area. With mid level flow out of the south, this could mean
training cells that repeatedly form over the Cascade ridges. This,
along with pwats around 200 percent of normal, will heighten the
threat of heavy rain for the east slopes where there are several
large burn scars from last summer`s wildfires. We will be keeping a
close eye on this as the event nears. /Kelch


LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE
THIS WEEK...FLASH FLOODING ON RECENT BURN SCARS POSSIBLE

Wednesday through Friday...This period will be quite active with
good model agreement depicting the arrival of the next incoming
Pacific trough. This will not be a simple transitory short wave
with a classic cold front producing a 12 hour period of showers
and then departing. Rather than a progressive passage, the trough
will dig and pinch off into a California closed low. This means
the attendant cold front and associated moisture fetch will slow
to a crawl and linger over the forecast area through a two to
three day period, producing showers and thunderstorms with the
potential for heavy rain in the cores from Wednesday through early
Friday. Furthermore and perhaps most ominously, the axis of deep
moisture, frontal forcing and instability will lay over the
Cascades and Okanogan area for much of this period where a large
spread of recent burn scars exists, setting up the potential for
debris flows and flash floods. Wednesday and Wednesday evening
appear to be the highest threat period for heavy rain producing
thunderstorms...transitioning to widespread moderate showers
overnight Wednesday and through Thursday. Storm total rainfall
from Wednesday through Friday may range from 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch
in the valleys and locally higher amounts throughout the
Cascades...the Waterville Plateau and the Okanogan Highlands and
Valley. This is an areal average...the cores of any prowling
thunderstorms may produce locally higher amounts but pinning this
down to any particular location is pre-mature at this point.

After the mid-week wet period...things will begin to dry out on
Friday as the closed low far to the south pinches off and the
forecast area comes under the influence of a flop over ridge
tucking into the region between the polar storm track and the
southern closed low. A surface low pressure over the great basin
will promote locally breezy north to northeast winds over the
forecast area which will advect dry continental Canadian air into
the region for the upcoming weekend...for mainly dry conditions
and increasing temperatures once again. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites under
building high pressure and clear sky through 12Z Tuesday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        78  52  81  54  77  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  79  47  82  50  79  50 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Pullman        76  46  80  48  75  48 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       82  49  85  52  81  53 /   0   0  10  10  20  50
Colville       83  45  85  47  80  47 /   0   0   0  10  20  50
Sandpoint      77  42  80  45  77  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  40
Kellogg        78  43  81  45  80  45 /   0   0  10  10  10  40
Moses Lake     83  45  85  52  78  49 /   0   0   0  10  30  60
Wenatchee      82  52  83  56  74  52 /   0   0  10  20  50  50
Omak           82  48  83  52  76  51 /   0   0  10  20  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021033
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
333 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO APPROACH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
COOL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SOME MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR A RISK OF TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE TSTMS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN CA YESTERDAY. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHERLY...
SHOULD EXPECT THE TSTMS TO BE OVER NORTHERN OREGON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
THE TSTM THREAT. THE SREF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A THREAT OF TSTMS
OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CWA THIS EVENING. IT EVEN INDICATED A
RISK OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS TIMING
APPEARED TOO QUICK. AT ANY RATE...THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AFTER THE 1200 UTC MODEL CYCLE
ARRIVES.

THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT ONSHORE TONIGHT. THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
GFS MODEL WAS PREDICTING THE KUIL TO KBLI PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE
PLUS 4.1 MB AT 5 PM PDT TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPS ON TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF
THE CURRENT HOT SPELL. IT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AT MOST
PLACES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ANTICIPATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE SPLITTING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS TROF WILL HEAD TOWARDS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
CALIFORNIA.

.LONG TERM...
WA WILL LIE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND OVER
THE ROCKIES AND TROFS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND CA ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BUT THE
THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SIGNAL A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
WAS NOT HIGH FOR DAY 7. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAD THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS HAD A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CANADA. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE FORECAST IS TOO WARM AND
SUNNY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...HOWEVER...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY START TO FILTER IN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  SMR

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON 7 TO 10 KNOTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EASING DOWN TO 5-8 KNOTS. SMR

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THAT GALE FORCE WINDS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST RECENT
RUNS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION WITH ONLY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT NEXT RUN
COMES UP WITH...BUT AT LEAST SOME SORT OF HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SMR

&&

.CLIMATE...
APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE
OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE...
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...
BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...
OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987)...AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD
50.3 (1989).

INCLUDING THE RECORD WARM APRIL...SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM
MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021033
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
333 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO APPROACH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
COOL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SOME MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR A RISK OF TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE TSTMS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN CA YESTERDAY. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHERLY...
SHOULD EXPECT THE TSTMS TO BE OVER NORTHERN OREGON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
THE TSTM THREAT. THE SREF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A THREAT OF TSTMS
OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CWA THIS EVENING. IT EVEN INDICATED A
RISK OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS TIMING
APPEARED TOO QUICK. AT ANY RATE...THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AFTER THE 1200 UTC MODEL CYCLE
ARRIVES.

THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT ONSHORE TONIGHT. THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
GFS MODEL WAS PREDICTING THE KUIL TO KBLI PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE
PLUS 4.1 MB AT 5 PM PDT TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPS ON TUESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF
THE CURRENT HOT SPELL. IT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AT MOST
PLACES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ANTICIPATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE SPLITTING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS TROF WILL HEAD TOWARDS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
CALIFORNIA.

.LONG TERM...
WA WILL LIE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND OVER
THE ROCKIES AND TROFS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND CA ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BUT THE
THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SIGNAL A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
WAS NOT HIGH FOR DAY 7. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAD THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS HAD A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CANADA. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE FORECAST IS TOO WARM AND
SUNNY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...HOWEVER...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY START TO FILTER IN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  SMR

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON 7 TO 10 KNOTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EASING DOWN TO 5-8 KNOTS. SMR

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THAT GALE FORCE WINDS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST RECENT
RUNS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION WITH ONLY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT NEXT RUN
COMES UP WITH...BUT AT LEAST SOME SORT OF HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SMR

&&

.CLIMATE...
APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE
OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE...
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...
BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...
OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987)...AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD
50.3 (1989).

INCLUDING THE RECORD WARM APRIL...SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM
MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021032
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
331 AM PDT MON MAY  2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS DOMINANT OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PAC NW. CHANGES WILL
BEGIN LATER TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHERLY...BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE...FIRST
COOLING OFF THE COAST TODAY...THEN INLAND AREAS TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF
QUITE WARM FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE 1-2 DEG C WARMER THAN SUNDAY...
MEANWHILE GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY FOR MOST INLAND VALLEYS...
POSSIBLY BREAKING A COUPLE RECORDS.

DECIDED TO BUMP UP FCST HIGHS A BIT ALONG THE COAST AS IT MAY TAKE A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE SEABREEZE TO KICK IN. THE BULK OF THE
ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS JUST NOW APPROACHING CAPE
MENDOCINO IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO THAT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW
HOURS TO ARRIVE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AS WELL. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR OFFSHORE FLOW IS WANING AS
SPOKANE-NORTH BEND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DOWN TO 4.3 MB AS OF 2 AM.
ALL THIS SHOULD ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TO MIGRATE ONSHORE TODAY
BUT AFTER A SLIGHT DELAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CROSS THE COAST RANGE...
BUT SHOULD DO SO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MARINE
AIR FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH MAY SERVE
AS A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
ONE BELIEVES. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST
ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
VARYING DEGREES OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING
LITTLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF CIN FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. MOST CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST CELLS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LANE/DOUGLAS CASCADES SOMETIME AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE COAST
RANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MARINE PUSH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH BASES INITIALLY...WITH AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE STRONGER
CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONGER-THAN-USUAL OUTFLOW... PERHAPS GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE
S-SE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE CASCADES
TO DRIFT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO JUST
ABOUT ANYONE IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SEEMED TO BACK OFF ON THIS A BIT.

06Z NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TUESDAY AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD
BRING A 10-15 DEGREE COOLDOWN TO INLAND AREAS TUESDAY THEN ANOTHER
5-10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WED. THE REMNANTS OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PLENTY OF
SHOWERS TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
THUNDER TO NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND AREAS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CUTTING OFF AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...BUT TAPER OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES HOWEVER...GIVEN BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 70S INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE
IN THE WARMING AIR MASS.  CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL INLAND TAF
SITES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW GIVES WAY TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW LATE MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE MARINE STRATUS APPROACHING THE
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT 21Z MON THRU 09Z TUE WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS WELL THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASES OVER THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AWAY FROM KPDX.

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS WORKING NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. AS OF 2 AM SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT HAVE REACHED NEWPORT
AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF GUSTY 20 KT SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10 AND 30 MILES OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY
SWELL SHOULD PUSH SEAS TEMPORARILY INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE
TODAY...BUT SEAS LOOK TO RELAX TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO
30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS. WHILE SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 FT FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME ESPECIALLY STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SEAS BECOME FRESH
SWELL/WIND DOMINATED DUE TO PERIODS OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND. /MH /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020908
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
208 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the region today resulting in above
normal temperatures. The warm temperatures will melt mountain
snow and cause rivers to rise. The high pressure weather pattern
shifts east on Tuesday. This will result in a cooler, unsettled
pattern. There will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms
with locally heavy rain by Wednesday, lasting into Thursday.
Improving conditions will begin again on Friday, lasting into the
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...High pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Inland Northwest today and much of Tuesday before
a Pacific trough will start to affect the region. Dry conditions and
above normal temperatures will prevail until a frontal system starts
to take aim on the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. This system will
have a tap into a nice fetch of Pacific moisture with Pwats of
around an inch. This plume of moisture will reach the Cascade crest
Tuesday morning and start to spread east Tuesday afternoon. Daytime
heating will provide instability and models are showing a few
hundred J/kg CAPE, which should be sufficient to generate isolated
thunderstorms for the late afternoon and evening hours. The upper
jet associated with the trough will be oriented north-south, which
will mean the front will be slow to translate east across the
forecast area. With mid level flow out of the south, this could mean
training cells that repeatedly form over the Cascade ridges. This,
along with pwats around 200 percent of normal, will heighten the
threat of heavy rain for the east slopes where there are several
large burn scars from last summer`s wildfires. We will be keeping a
close eye on this as the event nears. /Kelch


LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE
THIS WEEK...FLASH FLOODING ON RECENT BURN SCARS POSSIBLE

Wednesday through Friday...This period will be quite active with
good model agreement depicting the arrival of the next incoming
Pacific trough. This will not be a simple transitory short wave
with a classic cold front producing a 12 hour period of showers
and then departing. Rather than a progressive passage, the trough
will dig and pinch off into a California closed low. This means
the attendant cold front and associated moisture fetch will slow
to a crawl and linger over the forecast area through a two to
three day period, producing showers and thunderstorms with the
potential for heavy rain in the cores from Wednesday through early
Friday. Furthermore and perhaps most ominously, the axis of deep
moisture, frontal forcing and instability will lay over the
Cascades and Okanogan area for much of this period where a large
spread of recent burn scars exists, setting up the potential for
debris flows and flash floods. Wednesday and Wednesday evening
appear to be the highest threat period for heavy rain producing
thunderstorms...transitioning to widespread moderate showers
overnight Wednesday and through Thursday. Storm total rainfall
from Wednesday through Friday may range from 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch
in the valleys and locally higher amounts throughout the
Cascades...the Waterville Plateau and the Okanogan Highlands and
Valley. This is an areal average...the cores of any prowling
thunderstorms may produce locally higher amounts but pinning this
down to any particular location is pre-mature at this point.

After the mid-week wet period...things will begin to dry out on
Friday as the closed low far to the south pinches off and the
forecast area comes under the influence of a flop over ridge
tucking into the region between the polar storm track and the
southern closed low. A surface low pressure over the great basin
will promote locally breezy north to northeast winds over the
forecast area which will advect dry continental Canadian air into
the region for the upcoming weekend...for mainly dry conditions
and increasing temperatures once again. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites under
building high pressure and clear sky through 6Z Tuesday. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        78  52  81  54  77  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  79  47  82  50  79  50 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Pullman        76  46  80  48  75  48 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Lewiston       82  49  85  52  81  53 /   0   0  10  10  20  50
Colville       83  45  85  47  80  47 /   0   0   0  10  20  50
Sandpoint      77  42  80  45  77  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  40
Kellogg        78  43  81  45  80  45 /   0   0  10  10  10  40
Moses Lake     83  45  85  52  78  49 /   0   0   0  10  30  60
Wenatchee      82  52  83  56  74  52 /   0   0  10  20  50  50
Omak           82  48  83  52  76  51 /   0   0  10  20  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020519
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1019 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the region through Monday resulting in
above normal temperatures through. The warm temperatures will melt
mountain snow and cause rivers to rise. The high pressure weather
pattern shifts east on Tuesday. This will result in a cooler,
unsettled pattern. There will be a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by Wednesday, lasting into
Thursday. Improving conditions will begin again on Friday lasting
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night... The warming trend started in
earnest today as high pressure began to build over the region.
With the surface based high to the north some north and northeast
breezes gusting to 20 mph kicked in this afternoon over the entire
Inland Northwest. Overnight winds will settle down but an lighter
east component to the wind can be expected tomorrow as well.
Overnight fog will be much less extensive than this morning
especially in the northern valleys where the air mass has dried a
bit. It`s still not quite warm enough to rule out isolated patches
of frost overnight tonight in sheltered northern valleys so still
keep a watch out for frost sensitive plants if you are in a frost
prone area this time of year. The Republic and Okanogan Highlands
areas between Colville and Deer Park may have isolated pockets of
short term frost Early Monday.  Monday looks to be 3-5 degrees
warmer and continued dry and clear. Monday night high clouds will
start filtering in from the south as a weather system approaches
this will bring a mild night overnight into early Tuesday with
freezing valley temperatures not expected.

It`s the end of another month and last April ranked number one
all time in average temperature for April for several cities.

...VERY WARM MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST...

LOCATION            APRIL 2016      RANK    PREVIOUS    YEAR    RECORD
                    AVERAGE TEMP            RECORD              BEGAN

WENATCHEE WWTP      59.1            1       58.5        1934    1931
SPOKANE             54.7            2       56.5        1934    1881
LEWISTON            57.5            3       59.0        1934    1881

Check out other city`s rankings at:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=otx&pil=PNS&sid=OTX

Tuesday...High pressure will get pushed to the east of the Continental
Divide allowing a deep low pressure system to move towards the
region on Tuesday. Southerly flow will result in the warmest
temperatures of the week with highs in the 70s and 80s. Southerly
flow will also increase mid and upper level moisture advecting
into the region for increasing sky cover. Model guidance has been
consistent and similar showing enough moisture moving to the
Cascades for a chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms,
mainly west of a line along highway 97 and highway 202. Warm
temperatures with increasing dew points will keep run off into
area rivers and streams on the high side, and we are expecting
rises on area rivers through the week.

...Locally heavy rain is expected Wednesday and Thursday...

Wednesday through Friday...We are expecting an increase in the
active weather through this period. The upper level low will
slowly, ever so slowly, move into the region with several weak
waves moving through the western portion of the forecast area
Wednesday and early Thursday, before shifting to the eastern zones
Thursday and Friday. Moisture will steadily increase to 250-300
percent of normal Wednesday and Thursday. The aforementioned waves
will tap into surface and mid level instability for widespread
showers and thunderstorms.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday the focus of the heaviest precipitation
and the best chance for thunderstorms will be along the Cascades.
0-6km shear is strong enough to support some isolated stronger
storms at times. Because of the slow movement of the low the
biggest impact will be localized heavy precipitation. While
showers will be widespread the focus of the heaviest precipitation
will be on the 2014 and 2015 burn scars along the east slopes of
the Cascades and possibly the Okanogan Highlands. Debris flows and
localized flash flooding near the burn scars will be possible and
we will have to monitor this closely. Very warm temperatures on
Tuesday will drop 5-10 degrees on Wednesday but remain on the warm
side of normal.

Showers will remain widespread Wednesday night and Thursday.
The best instability will shift east along the Idaho Panhandle by
Thursday afternoon. Some localized lightning may be possible for
the Cascades but the best chance will be across the eastern third
of the forecast area. Again the biggest concern and impacts will
be the localized heavy precipitation for all of the mountain
zones. Already soggy soils will not be able to handle additional
rain fall, increasing the run off into area rivers and streams.
This raises the concern for debris flows and localized flooding.

Friday through Sunday the upper level low will drop southeast and
away for the region. This will allow a flop over ridge to build
into the region Saturday and Sunday. Before then wraparound
moisture will keep the chance of showers in the forecast for the
Panhandle, the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie, but with much
less accumulations. By Saturday and Sunday warmer and drier
conditions will return to the region. Temperatures will likely
warm to 5-10 degrees above normal. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites under
building high pressure and clear sky through 6Z Tuesday. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  78  52  81  54  76 /   0   0  10   0  10  30
Coeur d`Alene  44  78  47  81  50  78 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        44  77  46  80  48  73 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       47  81  50  85  52  79 /   0   0   0  10  10  30
Colville       41  81  43  84  47  79 /   0   0  10   0  10  40
Sandpoint      39  77  41  79  44  77 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Kellogg        40  78  42  80  45  77 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake     43  83  46  85  51  77 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Wenatchee      50  82  53  82  56  75 /   0   0  10  10  40  50
Omak           46  81  48  83  52  76 /   0   0  10  10  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020359
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
859 PM PDT SUN MAY  1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
OFFSHORE FLOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON INTO
MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST MONDAY...START TO MOVE
INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO THEN
MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPING BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA
BROUGHT WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY AS TEMPS REACHED NEAR 80 BOTH INLAND AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE
WINDS AIDED THE WARM UP WITH A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE
ONLY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN TODAY WERE 81 AT BOTH ASTORIA AND
NEWPORT.

EXPECT ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY MONDAY INLAND...BUT MOST
RECORDS ARE LIKELY OUT OF REACH EXCEPT PERHAPS AT TROUTDALE...
HILLSBORO...AND MCMINNVILLE.

CHANGES ARE COMING THOUGH. THE COAST SHOULD BE TURNING COOLER MONDAY
AS SOME MARINE AIR AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD NORTH DURING
THE DAY... WITH A DISTINCT SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES INLAND AS WELL BY TUESDAY SO THAT TUESDAY
SHOULD BE COOLER. MARINE CLOUDS MAY NOT BE VERY SOLID TUESDAY...WITH
THE MAIN CLOUDS BEING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THAT COULD RESULT IN MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AGAIN...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDER TUESDAY IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING LIKE THE HIGHER CASCADES.

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A REAL SOLID WINTER TYPE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINLY
INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL WEDNESDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CUTTING OFF AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...BUT TAPER OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES HOWEVER...GIVEN BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 70S INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE
IN THE WARMING AIR MASS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW GIVES WAY TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
LATE MONDAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL LIKELY BE AT KONP WHERE
MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAY AREA OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASES OVER THE REGION. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL WORK ITS WAY UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY 20 KT SOUTH WINDS. THERE
IS A CHANCE WINDS COULD SPIKE UP TO 25 KT BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT THINK
IT WILL BE PROLONGED ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS. A WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD PUSH SEAS TEMPORARILY INTO THE 7 TO 9
FT RANGE ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS LOOK TO RELAX TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS.
WHILE SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 FT FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME ESPECIALLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SEAS BECOME FRESH SWELL/WIND DOMINATED
DUE TO PERIODS OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND.
/NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 020352
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY AND WARM
DAY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN TUESDAY AND PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY AND WARM DAY ON MONDAY. BUT THE
FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE DURING THE DAY FOR A TRICKY FORECAST
ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH 60S
ON THE BEACHES TO MID 70S OR LOWER 80S A FEW MILES INLAND. IT WILL
BE WARMER IN THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND INLAND AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTH INTO WESTERN WA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE
GREATEST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR INLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING AND END TO THE
SHOWER THREAT. THE RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER. HIGH SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING OFFSHORE TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT ON MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST
AFTER 05Z. FELTON/SMR

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY
NIGHT. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE OLD
RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE BUT ARE
NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)
...BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8
DEGREES...OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987) AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD
RECORD 50.3 (1989).

WITH THE RECORD WARM APRIL SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM MONTHS IN
THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND
FEBRUARY...MARCH...JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012341
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the region through Monday resulting in
above normal temperatures through. The warm temperatures will melt
mountain snow and cause rivers to rise. The high pressure weather
pattern shifts east on Tuesday. This will result in a cooler,
unsettled pattern. There will be a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by Wednesday, lasting into
Thursday. Improving conditions will begin again on Friday lasting
into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night... The warming trend started in
earnest today as high pressure began to build over the region.
With the surface based high to the north some north and northeast
breezes gusting to 20 mph kicked in this afternoon over the entire
Inland Northwest. Overnight winds will settle down but an lighter
east component to the wind can be expected tomorrow as well.
Overnight fog will be much less extensive than this morning
especially in the northern valleys where the air mass has dried a
bit. It`s still not quite warm enough to rule out isolated patches
of frost overnight tonight in sheltered northern valleys so still
keep a watch out for frost sensitive plants if you are in a frost
prone area this time of year. The Republic and Okanogan Highlands
areas between Colville and Deer Park may have isolated pockets of
short term frost Early Monday.  Monday looks to be 3-5 degrees
warmer and continued dry and clear. Monday night high clouds will
start filtering in from the south as a weather system approaches
this will bring a mild night overnight into early Tuesday with
freezing valley temperatures not expected.

It`s the end of another month and last April ranked number one
all time in average temperature for April for several cities.

...VERY WARM MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST...

LOCATION            APRIL 2016      RANK    PREVIOUS    YEAR    RECORD
                    AVERAGE TEMP            RECORD              BEGAN

WENATCHEE WWTP      59.1            1       58.5        1934    1931
SPOKANE             54.7            2       56.5        1934    1881
LEWISTON            57.5            3       59.0        1934    1881

Check out other city`s rankings at:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=otx&pil=PNS&sid=OTX

Tuesday...High pressure will get pushed to the east of the Continental
Divide allowing a deep low pressure system to move towards the
region on Tuesday. Southerly flow will result in the warmest
temperatures of the week with highs in the 70s and 80s. Southerly
flow will also increase mid and upper level moisture advecting
into the region for increasing sky cover. Model guidance has been
consistent and similar showing enough moisture moving to the
Cascades for a chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms,
mainly west of a line along highway 97 and highway 202. Warm
temperatures with increasing dew points will keep run off into
area rivers and streams on the high side, and we are expecting
rises on area rivers through the week.

...Locally heavy rain is expected Wednesday and Thursday...

Wednesday through Friday...We are expecting an increase in the
active weather through this period. The upper level low will
slowly, ever so slowly, move into the region with several weak
waves moving through the western portion of the forecast area
Wednesday and early Thursday, before shifting to the eastern zones
Thursday and Friday. Moisture will steadily increase to 250-300
percent of normal Wednesday and Thursday. The aforementioned waves
will tap into surface and mid level instability for widespread
showers and thunderstorms.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday the focus of the heaviest precipitation
and the best chance for thunderstorms will be along the Cascades.
0-6km shear is strong enough to support some isolated stronger
storms at times. Because of the slow movement of the low the
biggest impact will be localized heavy precipitation. While
showers will be widespread the focus of the heaviest precipitation
will be on the 2014 and 2015 burn scars along the east slopes of
the Cascades and possibly the Okanogan Highlands. Debris flows and
localized flash flooding near the burn scars will be possible and
we will have to monitor this closely. Very warm temperatures on
Tuesday will drop 5-10 degrees on Wednesday but remain on the warm
side of normal.

Showers will remain widespread Wednesday night and Thursday.
The best instability will shift east along the Idaho Panhandle by
Thursday afternoon. Some localized lightning may be possible for
the Cascades but the best chance will be across the eastern third
of the forecast area. Again the biggest concern and impacts will
be the localized heavy precipitation for all of the mountain
zones. Already soggy soils will not be able to handle additional
rain fall, increasing the run off into area rivers and streams.
This raises the concern for debris flows and localized flooding.

Friday through Sunday the upper level low will drop southeast and
away for the region. This will allow a flop over ridge to build
into the region Saturday and Sunday. Before then wraparound
moisture will keep the chance of showers in the forecast for the
Panhandle, the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie, but with much
less accumulations. By Saturday and Sunday warmer and drier
conditions will return to the region. Temperatures will likely
warm to 5-10 degrees above normal. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites under
building high pressure and clear sky. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  78  52  81  54  76 /   0   0  10   0  10  30
Coeur d`Alene  44  78  47  81  50  78 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        44  77  46  80  48  73 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       47  81  50  85  52  79 /   0   0   0  10  10  30
Colville       41  81  43  84  47  79 /   0   0  10   0  10  40
Sandpoint      39  77  41  79  44  77 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Kellogg        40  78  42  80  45  77 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake     43  83  46  85  51  77 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Wenatchee      50  82  53  82  56  75 /   0   0  10  10  40  50
Omak           46  81  48  83  52  76 /   0   0  10  10  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 012210
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
310 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY AND WARM
DAY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN TUESDAY AND PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SUNNY AND WARM
WEATHER AGAIN MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST WILL SHIFT OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE
INTERIOR. SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR AT THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL START TO DEVELOP.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO NEAR 130W TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE CASCADES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER FOR THE CASCADES WHERE
THE AIR WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL COOL HIGHS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RELATIVE REPEAT OF TUESDAY. MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
HIGHS WILL COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 60S.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ONSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING AND END TO THE SHOWER
THREAT. THE RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER. HIGH SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING OFFSHORE TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT ON MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS 8 TO 12 KNOTS EASING AND
BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 05Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY
NIGHT. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE OLD
RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9
(1989)...BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8
DEGREES...OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987) AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD
RECORD 50.3 (1989).

WITH THE RECORD WARM APRIL SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM MONTHS IN
THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND FEBRUARY...MARCH...
JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 012132
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT SUN MAY  1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE
COAST MONDAY...THEN SPREAD THE COOLER AIR INLAND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...THEN EXPECT
ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPING BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST IS BRINGING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AT BOTH INLAND AND COASTAL
LOCATIONS. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN MONDAY WITH 3 OR 4
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A
SURGE OF COOL MARINE AIR TO THE COASTAL STRIP.

THE THERMAL LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST AS A CLOSED THERMAL LOW MONDAY. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD...MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL SPREADING
UP THE COAST BEHIND THE THERMAL LOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  THE
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL TYPICALLY DRAG SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO
FOR MONDAY AS THE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST AT THIS TIME. MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
NONETHELESS...THE SWITCH TO S-SW FLOW WILL USHER IN COOL AIR FOR THE
THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTION.  THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES WHERE THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE
CAN BREAK A WEAK CAP. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILITY AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CAPE IN THE VALLEY MONDAY COUPLED WITH S-SE STEERING FLOW...SO
THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF TSTORMS IN THE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL EARLY MAY
WEATHER AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 10-15
DEGREE COOL DOWN FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KICK OFF MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THREAT OF CONVECTION TUESDAY. TW

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE
SLOWLY ADVANCING INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CUTTING OFF AS AN
UPPER RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT TAPER OFF FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES HOWEVER...GIVEN BOTH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EVOLUTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE 70S INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WARMING AIR MASS.
CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IFR STRATUS MAY REACH KONP SOMETIME
ON MONDAY BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
RATHER THAN EARLIER. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE BY ABOUT 12Z MONDAY. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH OREGON COAST CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN WITH EASING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WILL SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT OFF COASTAL GAPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOCALIZED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE
OF THESE INCREASED WINDS NEAR COASTAL GAPS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 8
FT MONDAY WITH WEST SWELL. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SEAS TO RISE TO 10
FT WILL NOT BE UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE WATERS
LATER TODAY...SETTING UP FOR A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL TO PUSH UP
THE COAST MONDAY WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BRING A PERIOD OF 20 TO 25
KT WIND GUSTS LATE MONDAY MORNING OR MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT A
CLEAR SIGNAL FOR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITTING AND HEADING SOUTH OF
THE REGION SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAY SHIFT
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK AND
FOCUS NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 012132
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT SUN MAY  1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE
COAST MONDAY...THEN SPREAD THE COOLER AIR INLAND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...THEN EXPECT
ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPING BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST IS BRINGING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AT BOTH INLAND AND COASTAL
LOCATIONS. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN MONDAY WITH 3 OR 4
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A
SURGE OF COOL MARINE AIR TO THE COASTAL STRIP.

THE THERMAL LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST AS A CLOSED THERMAL LOW MONDAY. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD...MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL SPREADING
UP THE COAST BEHIND THE THERMAL LOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  THE
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL TYPICALLY DRAG SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO
FOR MONDAY AS THE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST AT THIS TIME. MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
NONETHELESS...THE SWITCH TO S-SW FLOW WILL USHER IN COOL AIR FOR THE
THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTION.  THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES WHERE THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE
CAN BREAK A WEAK CAP. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILITY AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CAPE IN THE VALLEY MONDAY COUPLED WITH S-SE STEERING FLOW...SO
THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF TSTORMS IN THE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL EARLY MAY
WEATHER AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 10-15
DEGREE COOL DOWN FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KICK OFF MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THREAT OF CONVECTION TUESDAY. TW

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE
SLOWLY ADVANCING INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CUTTING OFF AS AN
UPPER RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT TAPER OFF FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES HOWEVER...GIVEN BOTH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EVOLUTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE 70S INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WARMING AIR MASS.
CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IFR STRATUS MAY REACH KONP SOMETIME
ON MONDAY BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
RATHER THAN EARLIER. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE BY ABOUT 12Z MONDAY. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH OREGON COAST CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN WITH EASING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WILL SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT OFF COASTAL GAPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOCALIZED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE
OF THESE INCREASED WINDS NEAR COASTAL GAPS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 8
FT MONDAY WITH WEST SWELL. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SEAS TO RISE TO 10
FT WILL NOT BE UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE WATERS
LATER TODAY...SETTING UP FOR A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL TO PUSH UP
THE COAST MONDAY WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BRING A PERIOD OF 20 TO 25
KT WIND GUSTS LATE MONDAY MORNING OR MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT A
CLEAR SIGNAL FOR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITTING AND HEADING SOUTH OF
THE REGION SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAY SHIFT
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK AND
FOCUS NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the region through Monday resulting in
above normal temperatures through. The warm temperatures will melt
mountain snow and cause rivers to rise. The high pressure weather
pattern shifts east on Tuesday. This will result in a cooler,
unsettled pattern. There will be a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by Wednesday, lasting into
Thursday. Improving conditions will begin again on Friday lasting
into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night... The warming trend started in
earnest today as high pressure began to build over the region.
With the surface based high to the north some north and northeast
breezes gusting to 20 mph kicked in this afternoon over the entire
Inland Northwest. Overnight winds will settle down but an lighter
east component to the wind can be expected tomorrow as well.
Overnight fog will be much less extensive than this morning
especially in the northern valleys where the air mass has dried a
bit. It`s still not quite warm enough to rule out isolated patches
of frost overnight tonight in sheltered northern valleys so still
keep a watch out for frost sensitive plants if you are in a frost
prone area this time of year. The Republic and Okanogan Highlands
areas between Colville and Deer Park may have isolated pockets of
short term frost Early Monday.  Monday looks to be 3-5 degrees
warmer and continued dry and clear. Monday night high clouds will
start filtering in from the south as a weather system approaches
this will bring a mild night overnight into early Tuesday with
freezing valley temperatures not expected.

It`s the end of another month and last April ranked number one
all time in average temperature for April for several cities.

...VERY WARM MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST...

LOCATION            APRIL 2016      RANK    PREVIOUS    YEAR    RECORD
                    AVERAGE TEMP            RECORD              BEGAN

WENATCHEE WWTP      59.1            1       58.5        1934    1931
SPOKANE             54.7            2       56.5        1934    1881
LEWISTON            57.5            3       59.0        1934    1881

Check out other city`s rankings at:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=otx&pil=PNS&sid=OTX

Tuesday...High pressure will get pushed to the east of the Continental
Divide allowing a deep low pressure system to move towards the
region on Tuesday. Southerly flow will result in the warmest
temperatures of the week with highs in the 70s and 80s. Southerly
flow will also increase mid and upper level moisture advecting
into the region for increasing sky cover. Model guidance has been
consistent and similar showing enough moisture moving to the
Cascades for a chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms,
mainly west of a line along highway 97 and highway 202. Warm
temperatures with increasing dew points will keep run off into
area rivers and streams on the high side, and we are expecting
rises on area rivers through the week.

...Locally heavy rain is expected Wednesday and Thursday...

Wednesday through Friday...We are expecting an increase in the
active weather through this period. The upper level low will
slowly, ever so slowly, move into the region with several weak
waves moving through the western portion of the forecast area
Wednesday and early Thursday, before shifting to the eastern zones
Thursday and Friday. Moisture will steadily increase to 250-300
percent of normal Wednesday and Thursday. The aforementioned waves
will tap into surface and mid level instability for widespread
showers and thunderstorms.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday the focus of the heaviest precipitation
and the best chance for thunderstorms will be along the Cascades.
0-6km shear is strong enough to support some isolated stronger
storms at times. Because of the slow movement of the low the
biggest impact will be localized heavy precipitation. While
showers will be widespread the focus of the heaviest precipitation
will be on the 2014 and 2015 burn scars along the east slopes of
the Cascades and possibly the Okanogan Highlands. Debris flows and
localized flash flooding near the burn scars will be possible and
we will have to monitor this closely. Very warm temperatures on
Tuesday will drop 5-10 degrees on Wednesday but remain on the warm
side of normal.

Showers will remain widespread Wednesday night and Thursday.
The best instability will shift east along the Idaho Panhandle by
Thursday afternoon. Some localized lightning may be possible for
the Cascades but the best chance will be across the eastern third
of the forecast area. Again the biggest concern and impacts will
be the localized heavy precipitation for all of the mountain
zones. Already soggy soils will not be able to handle additional
rain fall, increasing the run off into area rivers and streams.
This raises the concern for debris flows and localized flooding.

Friday through Sunday the upper level low will drop southeast and
away for the region. This will allow a flop over ridge to build
into the region Saturday and Sunday. Before then wraparound
moisture will keep the chance of showers in the forecast for the
Panhandle, the Blue mountains and the Camas Prairie, but with much
less accumulations. By Saturday and Sunday warmer and drier
conditions will return to the region. Temperatures will likely
warm to 5-10 degrees above normal. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites under
building high pressure and clear sky. Noticeable north and east
winds 10-15 knots at most metar sites will weaken starting 22Z. TC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  78  52  81  54  76 /   0   0  10   0  10  30
Coeur d`Alene  44  78  47  81  50  78 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        44  77  46  80  48  73 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       47  81  50  85  52  79 /   0   0   0  10  10  30
Colville       41  81  43  84  47  79 /   0   0  10   0  10  40
Sandpoint      39  77  41  79  44  77 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Kellogg        40  78  42  80  45  77 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake     43  83  46  85  51  77 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Wenatchee      50  82  53  82  56  75 /   0   0  10  10  40  50
Omak           46  81  48  83  52  76 /   0   0  10  10  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011658
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over ther region through Monday resulting
in a warming trend and temperatures climbing into the mid 70s to
mid 80s by Tuesday. The heat will melt mountain snow and cause
rivers to rise. The high pressure weather pattern shifts east
toward the middle of next week, allowing a chance for
thunderstorms with heavy rain showers to return by Wednesday
lasting into Thursday. Improving conditions will begin again on
Friday possibly lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shallow valley fog this morning dissipated in extreme east
Washington and Idaho Panhandle as upper level hight pressure
builds over west Canada and U.S. Pacific Northwest. East and north
winds 10-15 mph down valleys and in the Central basin will
persist today as surface high pressure also builds north of the
Canadian border. The forecast is on track to get lower elevations
well into the 70s today with some lower 80s in the lower Columbia
Basin with clear skies and few cumulus over the mountains.

It`s the end of another month and last April ranked numer one all
time in average temperature for the month for several cities.

...VERY WARM MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST...

LOCATION            APRIL 2016      RANK    PREVIOUS    YEAR    RECORD
                    AVERAGE TEMP            RECORD              BEGAN

WENATCHEE WWTP      59.1            1       58.5        1934    1931
SPOKANE             54.7            2       56.5        1934    1881
LEWISTON            57.5            3       59.0        1934    1881

Check out other city`s rankings at:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=otx&pil=PNS&sid=OTX

Preliminary looks for next week shows Tuesday to be the warmest
day before chances of thunderstorms with heavy rain come into the
forecast Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure looks to build in
again toward Friday. Carter

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites under
building high pressure and clear sky. Noticeable north and east
winds 10-15 knots at most metar sites will weaken starting 22Z. TC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  49  79  52  80  53 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  73  45  79  48  80  50 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        70  45  77  48  79  49 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       76  49  81  51  84  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       79  42  82  45  81  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      72  39  78  42  78  45 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        70  41  79  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     78  44  83  48  84  49 /   0   0   0  10   0  20
Wenatchee      78  51  83  54  82  55 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Omak           78  46  82  50  83  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011654
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
950 AM PDT SUN MAY  1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL USHER IN WARM OFFSHORE FLOW
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND
THE COAST.  THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS SHOULD COOL DOWN THE
COAST MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...THEN
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPING BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
OREGON CASCADES FROM ABOUT DETROIT SOUTHWARD. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A
BROAD UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND SOUTHWEST US. A
THERMAL LOW WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT VERY PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COASTAL REGION SHOULD
ALSO SEE TEMPS NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON AS WE HAVE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION.

THE THERMAL LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST AS A CLOSED THERMAL LOW MONDAY. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD...MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL SPREADING
UP THE COAST BEHIND THE THERMAL LOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THERE IS VERY LITTLE STRATUS ALONG THE CA COAST...SO IT
IS HARD TO TELL JUST HOW MUCH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WIND REVERSAL. WILL LOOK AT THIS MORE CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
NONETHELESS...THE SWITCH TO S-SW FLOW WILL COOL THE COAST
CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. AS USUAL...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES WHERE THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE
CAN BREAK A WEAK CAP. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILTY AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CAPE IN THE VALLEY MON COUPLED WITH S-SE STEERING FLOW...SO THERE
IS ALSO A THREAT OF TSTORMS IN THE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL EARLY MAY
WEATHER AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 10-15 DEGREE
COOLDOWN INLAND TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KICK OFF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
TUESDAY. TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...PROVIDING FOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS...BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF
A TRIGGER TO TAP INTO THIS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IN THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FEEL A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS WARRANTED. EXPECT SOME WARMING
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME DRY CONDITIONS... AS THE
UPPER LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...MAINTAINED THE FORECAST ALONG THE LINES SUGGESTED
BY A BLEND OF MODELS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO REMAIN WITH A MORE WET
SOLUTION AND SOME SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR IFR STRATUS TO REACH KONP CLOSE TO 12Z MON BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 5SM VISIBILITY AT KAST
STILL SEEMS SUSPICIOUS BASED ON WEB CAMERAS SO KEPT THEM VFR EVEN
THOUGH THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MIDDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BOWEN/MH

&&

.MARINE...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL WEAKEN
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO EASE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KT AND DOMINANT PERIODS HAVE REBOUNDED AS A
RESULT...BACK UP TO 12 TO 14 SECONDS. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NO LONGER SQUARE AND SHOULD
REMAIN 6 TO 8 FT TODAY. WILL ALSO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR WINDS.
WILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT OFF COASTAL GAPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
TOO LOCALIZED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...MARINERS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE INCREASED WINDS NEAR COASTAL GAPS.

THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE WATERS
TODAY...SETTING UP FOR A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL TO PUSH UP THE
COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BRING A PERIOD OF
20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS. NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SPLITTING AND HEADING SOUTH OF THE REGION SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAY SHIFT MORE SQUARELY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOCUS NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. EVEN THOUGH SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 10 FT
INDEFINITELY...SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME FRESH SWELL/WIND DOMINATED
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT STILL
LOOKS A BIT CHOPPY AND ROUGH FOR SMALLER BOATS. BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011654
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
950 AM PDT SUN MAY  1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL USHER IN WARM OFFSHORE FLOW
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND
THE COAST.  THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS SHOULD COOL DOWN THE
COAST MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...THEN
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPING BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
OREGON CASCADES FROM ABOUT DETROIT SOUTHWARD. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A
BROAD UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND SOUTHWEST US. A
THERMAL LOW WILL ALSO BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT VERY PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COASTAL REGION SHOULD
ALSO SEE TEMPS NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON AS WE HAVE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION.

THE THERMAL LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST AS A CLOSED THERMAL LOW MONDAY. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD...MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL SPREADING
UP THE COAST BEHIND THE THERMAL LOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THERE IS VERY LITTLE STRATUS ALONG THE CA COAST...SO IT
IS HARD TO TELL JUST HOW MUCH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WIND REVERSAL. WILL LOOK AT THIS MORE CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
NONETHELESS...THE SWITCH TO S-SW FLOW WILL COOL THE COAST
CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. AS USUAL...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES WHERE THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE
CAN BREAK A WEAK CAP. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILTY AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CAPE IN THE VALLEY MON COUPLED WITH S-SE STEERING FLOW...SO THERE
IS ALSO A THREAT OF TSTORMS IN THE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL EARLY MAY
WEATHER AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 10-15 DEGREE
COOLDOWN INLAND TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KICK OFF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
TUESDAY. TW

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...PROVIDING FOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS...BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF
A TRIGGER TO TAP INTO THIS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IN THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FEEL A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS WARRANTED. EXPECT SOME WARMING
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME DRY CONDITIONS... AS THE
UPPER LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...MAINTAINED THE FORECAST ALONG THE LINES SUGGESTED
BY A BLEND OF MODELS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO REMAIN WITH A MORE WET
SOLUTION AND SOME SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR IFR STRATUS TO REACH KONP CLOSE TO 12Z MON BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 5SM VISIBILITY AT KAST
STILL SEEMS SUSPICIOUS BASED ON WEB CAMERAS SO KEPT THEM VFR EVEN
THOUGH THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MIDDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BOWEN/MH

&&

.MARINE...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL WEAKEN
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO EASE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KT AND DOMINANT PERIODS HAVE REBOUNDED AS A
RESULT...BACK UP TO 12 TO 14 SECONDS. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NO LONGER SQUARE AND SHOULD
REMAIN 6 TO 8 FT TODAY. WILL ALSO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR WINDS.
WILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT OFF COASTAL GAPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
TOO LOCALIZED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...MARINERS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE INCREASED WINDS NEAR COASTAL GAPS.

THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE WATERS
TODAY...SETTING UP FOR A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL TO PUSH UP THE
COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BRING A PERIOD OF
20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS. NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SPLITTING AND HEADING SOUTH OF THE REGION SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAY SHIFT MORE SQUARELY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOCUS NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. EVEN THOUGH SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 10 FT
INDEFINITELY...SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME FRESH SWELL/WIND DOMINATED
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT STILL
LOOKS A BIT CHOPPY AND ROUGH FOR SMALLER BOATS. BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 011619
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
919 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SUNNY AND WARM
WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BUILD NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 70S TODAY. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR
THE INTERIOR...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH SOME COOLING
AT THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO NEAR 130W TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE CASCADES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER FOR THE CASCADES WHERE
THE AIR WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL COOL HIGHS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
SPLIT OVER THE WESTERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROF
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CA
WATERS. EXPECT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY OFF THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN WA BETWEEN TROFS OVER CA AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND RIDGES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE ROCKIES.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING EAST OVER OUR AREA FOR A DECREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL EVOLVE INTO A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA...WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TODAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINING OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS MOD AFTERNOON. WINDS EASING AND BECOMING
NORTHEAST AFTER 05Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH THERMALLY INDUCED
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
OCCUR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES.
SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE OLD
RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9
(1989)...BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8
DEGREES...OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987) AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD
RECORD 50.3 (1989). FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 011131 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
431 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CORRECTED THE SYNOPSIS.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE TO APPROACH.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG
MARINE PUSH THAT WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SITES WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK MAX TEMP RECORDS TODAY AND/OR
MONDAY.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRAL OR LIGHT ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COAST SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY BE AS WARM OR WARMER ON MONDAY THAN
TODAY.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST /SREF/ INDICATED SOME LOW
LIFTED INDICES AND DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR WESTERN WA MONDAY
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...
WENT ON AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF TSTMS TO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE OLYMPIC RANGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE REGION.
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE TO
INITIATE A STRONG ONSHORE PUSH THAT WILL LEAD TO WELCOME COOLING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THUS
EXPECT A THREAT OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER MAINLY THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SPLIT OVER THE WESTERN USA DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROF OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN
OFF THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE CA WATERS. EXPECT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY
OFF THE CA COAST. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN WA BETWEEN TROFS OVER CA
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND RIDGES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE ROCKIES.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING EAST OVER OUR AREA FOR A DECREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL EVOLVE INTO A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA...WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FEW TO SCT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THOUGH
GENERALLY MOST SITES SHOULD SEE SKC CONDITIONS. SMR

KSEA...SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 10-13
KNOTS. SMR

&&

.MARINE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS INHERITED ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FELTON/SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds Today and Monday, resulting in a warming
trend, with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s to low 80s.
High pressure shifts east toward the middle of next week, allowing
a chance for showers and thunderstorms to return by Wednesday.
Improving conditions will begin on Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...High pressure will be in control of the
weather across the region. Skies are clearing across the Inland
Northwest under a building ridge, bringing dry conditions and
temperatures warming a good 10 degrees above seasonal normals. The
warming trend will continue on Monday with valley locations in the
upper 70s to low 80s. The only threat of precipitation will be
across the southeast zones Monday afternoon as some mid level
moisture tries to move up from the south and this probability is
quite low. The warm temperatures will bring on increased snow melt
which will allow some of the area creeks and streams to rise
to bankfull. /Kelch

Tuesday...One last day of quiet and warm conditions will occur on
Tuesday before a general deterioration into a cooler and more
active spring time weather regime overtakes the region. Tuesday is
shaping up to be the warmest day of the week as southerly flow
aloft pumps some warm air into the region and a weak early season
thermal trough sets up over the Columbia Basin. Moisture will be
increasing as well as the incoming Pacific trough responsible for
the southerly flow entrains a fetch of deep moisture. The Cascades
will be enveloped in this moist flow as the day wears on with an
increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon.
The rest of the forecast area will remain dry and warm. These
temperatures will aggravate mountain snow melt and lead to rises
on mainstem rivers draining the Cascades during the week with
several rivers expected to achieve action stage...detailed in the
River Statement issued yesterday.

Wednesday and Thursday...Latest models are in agreement in
forcing the approaching Pacific trough into the region during this
time frame. Rather than a classic progressive transit...this
trough will be digging and eventually pinching off into the Great
basin during the week...so the associated cold front and
precipitation potential will be a slow and lingering evolution
characterized by a scattered shower and thunderstorm regime
enveloping the entire forecast area Wednesday with the actual cold
front slowly dragging through the region with numerous showers
Wednesday night and Thursday. The main threat associated with this
period...particularly on Wednesday...will be the potential for
brief heavy rain producing thunderstorms rolling over recent burn
scars in the Cascades and Okanogan area. Flash Flooding on these
fresh scars is possible and will be the subject of today`s
Hazardous Weather Outlook product...with future shifts analyzing
the potential for issuing a Flash Flood Watch if the ingredients
continue to come together as depicted on current model runs.

Thursday night and Friday a general drying out period is expected
as the forecast area comes under a weak flop-over ridge/weather dead
zone north of the pinching off Great Basin upper low. Breezy north
or northeast winds will advect some drier Canadian Continental
air into the region leading to a noticeable cool down in
temperatures leading into next weekend with no further significant
storm systems identifiable from Friday through Saturday. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy fog near sheltered mountain valleys will diminish
after sunrise. KSFF, located right next to the Spokane River, will
have occasional MVFR conditions through 14Z. Then VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites under building high pressure. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        74  49  79  52  80  53 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  75  45  79  48  80  50 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        71  45  77  48  79  49 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       76  49  81  51  84  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       80  42  82  45  81  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      73  39  78  42  78  45 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        71  41  79  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     79  44  83  48  84  49 /   0   0   0  10   0  20
Wenatchee      79  51  83  54  82  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Omak           78  46  82  50  83  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011049
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT SUN MAY  1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONTH OF MAY IS STARTING OFF WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON. A REX BLOCK PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA...WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL USHER IN
WARM OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT MONDAY
AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS SHOULD COOL
DOWN THE COAST MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING INLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK...THEN MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND
DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AFTER THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD SINCE THE 1920S OR
1930S...MAY BEGINS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. A REX BLOCK PATTERN IS
DEVELOPING AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPEAR TO BE HOLDING OFF
UNTIL A WEAK AND DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE RETROGRADES EAST TO WEST
ACROSS OREGON. THE VORTMAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOUGH
TO PICK OUT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DUE TO HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS...
BUT IT PRESENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER BAKER AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN EAST WINDS TODAY ONCE THIS
VORTMAX MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE A
BIT OF A WARM BREEZE FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THE 06Z NAM REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING 25-35 KT OF EASTERLY FLOW
AT 850 MB ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING. EXPOSED AREAS MAY SEE SOME 30-40
MPH GUSTS...BUT MOST OF THE DISTRICT SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST WINDS WILL BRING A QUICK RISE IN
TEMPS ONCE THEY BEGIN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO +11 DEG C...HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST.

EAST WINDS APPEAR TO BECOME A BIT MORE CONSTRICTED THROUGH THE GORGE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BREAKS DOWN AND VEERS MORE TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AS THE ONLY DRIVER FOR THE EAST WINDS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE BY TODAYS
OFFSHORE FLOW...TO LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST AS A CLOSED THERMAL
LOW MONDAY. IN TURN...MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL SPREADING UP THE COAST BEHIND THE THERMAL LOW AS MONDAY
PROGRESSES. SINCE THERE IS PRESENTLY VERY LITTLE STRATUS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...IT IS TOUGH TO TELL JUST HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL. CLOUD COVER OR
NOT...THE SWITCH BACK TO S-SW FLOW WILL PROBABLY COOL THE COAST
CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH
ALONG THE COAST MONDAY...AT LEAST NOT WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE WARM SPELLS. MODEL AVERAGE SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR 570 DAM.
THE LOWER HEIGHTS MAY ALLOW THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN ENOUGH TO COOL
DOWN EUGENE ON MONDAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY...OR
MAYBE NOT. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY INSISTENT ON KEEPING EUGENE
UNSEASONABLY WARM...SO WE LEFT TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES AT EUGENE
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR AREAS SALEM NORTHWARD THAT MONDAY
WILL STAY IN THE 80S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS...AS IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL
THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT THAT FAR NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING TO CONSIDER CONVECTION. AS USUAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES...WHERE ODDS ARE BEST THAT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN BREAK A WEAK CAP DUE TO THE ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCE. MODEL MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE ON THE
NAM AS THE MODEL WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT...BUT 500-1000 J/KG IS STILL
IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA. NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
A BIT OF A CAP FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH 100-200 J/KG OF CIN
PER THE 06Z NAM. THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME...SO LOWLANDS MAY
HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTION STARTING IN CASCADES OR COAST RANGE THEN
DRIFTING OVER THE COAST OR INLAND VALLEYS VIA S-SE FLOW ALOFT. ALSO
NOTABLE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS IS HOW DRY THE AIR MASS REMAINS MON
AFTERNOON BELOW 700 MB...00Z GFS SHOWS PORTLAND NEARLY MIXING DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY ALL THE WAY FROM 700 MB. SHOULD THERE BE ANY
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION MONDAY...THIS COULD ASSIST IN PRODUCING
SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS NOT ZERO MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING...BUT ALSO DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS GOOD AS IT DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH LATEST RUNS ONLY
SHOWING WEAK...THIN CAPE ALOFT OR A NEUTRALLY STABLE AIR MASS. LATEST
RUNS ARE SLOWING THE APPROACH OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS
WOULD LIKELY KEEP WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT A LITTLE LONGER AND MAKE IT
MORE DIFFICULT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. REGARDLESS...
WHETHER IT BE FROM REMNANTS OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION IN THE EVENING OR
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL EARLY MAY
WEATHER AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 10-15 DEGREE
COOLDOWN INLAND TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KICK OFF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
TUESDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE CASCADES. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER TUESDAY COAST RANGE EASTWARD...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE CASCADES AS LOW LEVELS BECOME INCREASINGLY
STABILIZED BY THE MARINE LAYER.

ANOTHER CLIMATE NOTE THIS MORNING...SINCE PORTLAND AIRPORT RECORDS
ONLY GO BACK TO 1940...PDX SHATTERED THEIR RECORD FOR THE ALL-TIME
WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 57.8 DEGREES
FOR THE MONTH. THIS IS 5.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND 1.5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 56.3 DEGREES SET IN 2004. SITES
WITH LONGER PERIODS OF RECORD DID NOT BREAK THE ALL-TIME APRIL
RECORD...IT APPEARS 1926 AND 1934 ALSO HAD EXTREMELY WARM APRIL
TEMPERATURES. WILL TRY TO GET A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT OR
RECORD EVENT REPORT OUT WITH DETAILS LATER THIS MORNING.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...PROVIDING FOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS...BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF
A TRIGGER TO TAP INTO THIS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IN THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FEEL A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS WARRANTED. EXPECT SOME WARMING
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME DRY CONDITIONS... AS THE
UPPER LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...MAINTAINED THE FORECAST ALONG THE LINES SUGGESTED
BY A BLEND OF MODELS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO REMAIN WITH A MORE WET
SOLUTION AND SOME SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR IFR STRATUS MAY REACH KONP CLOSE TO 12Z MON BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  5SM VISIBILITY AT KAST
SEEMS SUSPICIOUS BASED ON WEB CAMERAS SO KEPT THEM VFR EVEN THOUGH
THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MIDDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT OVER EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. /MH

&&

.MARINE...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL WEAKEN
THIS MORNING EASING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. CURRENTLY NORTH WINDS
ARE GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND WEST OF 10 NM.
06Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED THIS WELL. THE ASCAT DATA SO SHOWED WEAKER
WINDS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN THAT AREA. DOMINANT PERIODS CONTINUE AROUND 7 SECONDS
AT BUOY 46050 OFF OF NEWPORT SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR
STEEP SEAS THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT OFF THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE WATERS
TODAY SETTING UP FOR A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL TO PUSH UP THE
COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BRING A PERIOD OF 20
TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SPLITTING AND HEADING SOUTH OF THE REGION SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAY SHIFT MORE SQUARELY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOCUS NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. EVEN THOUGH SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 10 FT
INDEFINITELY...SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME FRESH SWELL/WIND DOMINATED
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT STILL
LOOKS A BIT CHOPPY AND ROUGH FOR SMALLER BOATS. /MH /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011049
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT SUN MAY  1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONTH OF MAY IS STARTING OFF WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON. A REX BLOCK PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA...WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL USHER IN
WARM OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT MONDAY
AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS SHOULD COOL
DOWN THE COAST MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING INLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK...THEN MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND
DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AFTER THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD SINCE THE 1920S OR
1930S...MAY BEGINS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. A REX BLOCK PATTERN IS
DEVELOPING AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPEAR TO BE HOLDING OFF
UNTIL A WEAK AND DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE RETROGRADES EAST TO WEST
ACROSS OREGON. THE VORTMAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOUGH
TO PICK OUT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DUE TO HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS...
BUT IT PRESENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER BAKER AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN EAST WINDS TODAY ONCE THIS
VORTMAX MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE A
BIT OF A WARM BREEZE FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THE 06Z NAM REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING 25-35 KT OF EASTERLY FLOW
AT 850 MB ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING. EXPOSED AREAS MAY SEE SOME 30-40
MPH GUSTS...BUT MOST OF THE DISTRICT SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST WINDS WILL BRING A QUICK RISE IN
TEMPS ONCE THEY BEGIN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO +11 DEG C...HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST.

EAST WINDS APPEAR TO BECOME A BIT MORE CONSTRICTED THROUGH THE GORGE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BREAKS DOWN AND VEERS MORE TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AS THE ONLY DRIVER FOR THE EAST WINDS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE BY TODAYS
OFFSHORE FLOW...TO LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST AS A CLOSED THERMAL
LOW MONDAY. IN TURN...MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL SPREADING UP THE COAST BEHIND THE THERMAL LOW AS MONDAY
PROGRESSES. SINCE THERE IS PRESENTLY VERY LITTLE STRATUS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...IT IS TOUGH TO TELL JUST HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL. CLOUD COVER OR
NOT...THE SWITCH BACK TO S-SW FLOW WILL PROBABLY COOL THE COAST
CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH
ALONG THE COAST MONDAY...AT LEAST NOT WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE WARM SPELLS. MODEL AVERAGE SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR 570 DAM.
THE LOWER HEIGHTS MAY ALLOW THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN ENOUGH TO COOL
DOWN EUGENE ON MONDAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY...OR
MAYBE NOT. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY INSISTENT ON KEEPING EUGENE
UNSEASONABLY WARM...SO WE LEFT TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES AT EUGENE
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR AREAS SALEM NORTHWARD THAT MONDAY
WILL STAY IN THE 80S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS...AS IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL
THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT THAT FAR NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING TO CONSIDER CONVECTION. AS USUAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES...WHERE ODDS ARE BEST THAT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN BREAK A WEAK CAP DUE TO THE ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCE. MODEL MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE ON THE
NAM AS THE MODEL WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT...BUT 500-1000 J/KG IS STILL
IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA. NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
A BIT OF A CAP FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH 100-200 J/KG OF CIN
PER THE 06Z NAM. THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME...SO LOWLANDS MAY
HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTION STARTING IN CASCADES OR COAST RANGE THEN
DRIFTING OVER THE COAST OR INLAND VALLEYS VIA S-SE FLOW ALOFT. ALSO
NOTABLE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS IS HOW DRY THE AIR MASS REMAINS MON
AFTERNOON BELOW 700 MB...00Z GFS SHOWS PORTLAND NEARLY MIXING DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY ALL THE WAY FROM 700 MB. SHOULD THERE BE ANY
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION MONDAY...THIS COULD ASSIST IN PRODUCING
SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS NOT ZERO MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING...BUT ALSO DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS GOOD AS IT DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH LATEST RUNS ONLY
SHOWING WEAK...THIN CAPE ALOFT OR A NEUTRALLY STABLE AIR MASS. LATEST
RUNS ARE SLOWING THE APPROACH OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS
WOULD LIKELY KEEP WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT A LITTLE LONGER AND MAKE IT
MORE DIFFICULT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. REGARDLESS...
WHETHER IT BE FROM REMNANTS OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION IN THE EVENING OR
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL EARLY MAY
WEATHER AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 10-15 DEGREE
COOLDOWN INLAND TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KICK OFF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
TUESDAY...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE CASCADES. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER TUESDAY COAST RANGE EASTWARD...BUT THE BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE CASCADES AS LOW LEVELS BECOME INCREASINGLY
STABILIZED BY THE MARINE LAYER.

ANOTHER CLIMATE NOTE THIS MORNING...SINCE PORTLAND AIRPORT RECORDS
ONLY GO BACK TO 1940...PDX SHATTERED THEIR RECORD FOR THE ALL-TIME
WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 57.8 DEGREES
FOR THE MONTH. THIS IS 5.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND 1.5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 56.3 DEGREES SET IN 2004. SITES
WITH LONGER PERIODS OF RECORD DID NOT BREAK THE ALL-TIME APRIL
RECORD...IT APPEARS 1926 AND 1934 ALSO HAD EXTREMELY WARM APRIL
TEMPERATURES. WILL TRY TO GET A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT OR
RECORD EVENT REPORT OUT WITH DETAILS LATER THIS MORNING.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...PROVIDING FOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS...BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF
A TRIGGER TO TAP INTO THIS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IN THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FEEL A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS WARRANTED. EXPECT SOME WARMING
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME DRY CONDITIONS... AS THE
UPPER LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...MAINTAINED THE FORECAST ALONG THE LINES SUGGESTED
BY A BLEND OF MODELS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO REMAIN WITH A MORE WET
SOLUTION AND SOME SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR IFR STRATUS MAY REACH KONP CLOSE TO 12Z MON BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  5SM VISIBILITY AT KAST
SEEMS SUSPICIOUS BASED ON WEB CAMERAS SO KEPT THEM VFR EVEN THOUGH
THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MIDDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT OVER EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. /MH

&&

.MARINE...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL WEAKEN
THIS MORNING EASING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. CURRENTLY NORTH WINDS
ARE GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND WEST OF 10 NM.
06Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED THIS WELL. THE ASCAT DATA SO SHOWED WEAKER
WINDS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN THAT AREA. DOMINANT PERIODS CONTINUE AROUND 7 SECONDS
AT BUOY 46050 OFF OF NEWPORT SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR
STEEP SEAS THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFT OFF THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE WATERS
TODAY SETTING UP FOR A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL TO PUSH UP THE
COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND COULD BRIEFLY BRING A PERIOD OF 20
TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SPLITTING AND HEADING SOUTH OF THE REGION SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAY SHIFT MORE SQUARELY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOCUS NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. EVEN THOUGH SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 10 FT
INDEFINITELY...SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME FRESH SWELL/WIND DOMINATED
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT STILL
LOOKS A BIT CHOPPY AND ROUGH FOR SMALLER BOATS. /MH /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 011042
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
342 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE TO APPROACH.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A
STRONG MARINE PUSH THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SITES WILL
LIKELY COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK MAX TEMP RECORDS TODAY AND/OR
MONDAY.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRAL OR LIGHT ONSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COAST SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY BE AS WARM OR WARMER ON MONDAY THAN
TODAY.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST /SREF/ INDICATED SOME LOW
LIFTED INDICES AND DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR WESTERN WA MONDAY
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...
WENT ON AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF TSTMS TO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE OLYMPIC RANGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE REGION.
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE TO
INITIATE A STRONG ONSHORE PUSH THAT WILL LEAD TO WELCOME COOLING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THUS
EXPECT A THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER MAINLY THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SPLIT OVER THE WESTERN USA DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROF OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TOWARDS THE CA WATERS. EXPECT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY OFF
THE CA COAST. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN WA BETWEEN TROFS OVER CA
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND RIDGES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE ROCKIES.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING EAST OVER OUR AREA FOR A DECREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL EVOLVE INTO A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA...WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FEW TO SCT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THOUGH
GENERALLY MOST SITES SHOULD SEE SKC CONDITIONS. SMR

KSEA...SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 10-13
KNOTS. SMR

&&

.MARINE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS INHERITED ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FELTON/SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

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AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
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