Home > Products > State Listing > Washington Data
Latest:
 AFDSEW |  AFDOTX |  AFDPQR |
  [top]

000
FXUS66 KOTX 012334
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm conditions will continue, with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. The storms may result in
some localized heavy downpours and gusty winds. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the next seven
days. However, only a few spots will reach the 100 degree mark.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday: We`ll keep the Red Flag warning in effect
for the North Cascades...including the Methow Valley and Okanogan
Valley into early evening...though the latest obs still show a
moderate cap in place that could potentially make this a non-
event. The next few hours will be key as the short-wave approaches
and temps continue to warm into the mid 90s in those northern
valleys and the cap weakens over the ridges. Of more importance is
the potential for flash flooding on burn scars from the recent
large wildfires in and near the Cascades. We can already see radar
returns beginning to increase along a NW-to-SE axis ahead of the
short-wave, but so far lightning has been minimal and confined to
along the Cascade crest. The only changes for Saturday was to
decrease thunder chances only slightly. bz

Saturday night through Monday: The Inland NW remains in an active
southwest flow, with continued shower and thunder chances. A
couple mid-level shortwaves troughs pass between Saturday night
and Sunday, before shortwave ridging starts to build in Monday.
The first shortwave trough moves across WA Saturday evening and
exits through ID into BC/MT overnight into Sunday morning. The
second shortwave trough comes on the heels of the first Sunday
morning into Sunday evening, tracking by the Cascades and
northeast along the BC/WA border Sunday morning. Saturday evening
moderate SBCAPE is indicated before the loss of daytime heating,
supporting the shower and thunderstorm threat across the region.
Coverage looks highest across the north and eastern zones and
least in the deeper Columbia Basin before 11 PM. However moderate
chances will linger across the northern mountain zones through
early Sunday morning, with the secondary shortwave passing and
modest elevated instability still in place. Through Sunday
afternoon the primary shortwave trough tracks near or north of the
Canadian border. Afternoon heating will reinvigorate the SBCAPE
across northeast WA and north ID, largely north of the
Spokane/C`dA and near the lower ID Panhandle into the Clearwaters.
The passing shortwave and proximity of the jet stream, as well as
orographic ascent, will be enough to keep the shower/thunder
chances alive across theses areas through the evening. Going into
Monday overall the incoming shortwave ridge will support a drier
forecast. A lingering shower/thunder threat exists across the
northeast mountains on the heels of the exiting shortwave. Some
chances will also be found in the proximity of the Blue Mountains,
Camas Prairie to lower Shoshone county with another shortwave
approaching from the the Sierras/Nevada/Oregon area. /J. Cote`

Monday evening through Friday...The current longwave pattern
consisting of a longwave trof with ridge axis placement over
Montana continues to hold in place through much if not all of this
entire time interval. This pattern is somewhat favorable at times
to allow weather disturbances coupled with moisture to come up
from the south or southwest. Indeed Monday evening into early
Wednesday it appears that a significant amount of moisture runs up
into our area from the south, almost seeming to originate at one
time from the tropics near the warm waters on either side of the
southern part of Mexico. This scenario supports a somewhat
unsettled forecast with thunderstorm potential mentioned in some
shape or form, at least down in the southeast part of the forecast
area near the Blue Mountains. Additionally hot temperatures should
remain until a slight cooling trend begins Wednesday. Thursday and
beyond the associated persistent offshore trof contains a more
active and deeper Gulf of Alaska low pressure area which is
expected to eject shortwaves around its periphery and up the west
side of the ridge, perhaps even a negatively tilted one. At the
minimum the heights of the ridge over us will be knocked down some
and the axis possibly displaced further to the east in Montana
which supports the currently advertised slight cooling trend with
continued mention of some possibility of thunderstorms. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Though VFR weather is still expected for all TAF sites,
isolated TSRA at best will be possible across the Cascasdes though
this evening, potentially impacting KEAT. The other area of
thunder will be from the Blue Mtns towards Lookout Pass including
KLWS. Gusty outflow winds to 40 mph and downpours will be
possible through the evening hours for these locations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  94  67  95  66  95 /  20  20  30  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  65  92  63  94  61  93 /  20  30  30  20  10  10
Pullman        60  93  59  94  57  94 /  20  20  30  10  10  10
Lewiston       72  98  71 101  70 100 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Colville       61  96  58  95  59  97 /  20  30  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      58  89  56  89  54  90 /  20  30  30  20  20  10
Kellogg        65  89  62  90  61  90 /  20  30  30  20  20  10
Moses Lake     67  98  65 100  65 101 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Wenatchee      74  97  71  99  73 100 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Omak           71  97  67  99  67 102 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 012149
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK. A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
ARE 20-30 PERCENT. THE MAIN FOCUS IS OVER THE INTERIOR /KING COUNTY
NORTHWARD/ AND ACROSS THE CASCADES. THE TRIGGER IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS RIDING N/NE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWITCH TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON
SAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
CASCADES. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE LOW
CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL HELP COOL TEMPS BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS RISING A FEW
DEGREES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BESIDES THAT. 33

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF BREAKING DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THEN
THE RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE FLOW
TURNING MORE ZONAL OVER WA. THERE IS EVEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION BUT IT LOOKS DRY IN THE MODELS. BUT THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPS
DIPPING A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL KEEP
HEIGHTS HIGH AND UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE THERE IS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. A LINE OF ACCAS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN KING COUNTY...WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH ABOUT 02Z THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. STRATUS WILL RETURN
TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL STRATUS
SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES ON
SATURDAY.

ANY CEILINGS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME IFR OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
GO AWAY AFTER 00Z OR SO. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THERMALLY
INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE
WEAKER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING...20-30 KT.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS OF VARYING STRENGTH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE STRAIT. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 012149
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK. A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS
ARE 20-30 PERCENT. THE MAIN FOCUS IS OVER THE INTERIOR /KING COUNTY
NORTHWARD/ AND ACROSS THE CASCADES. THE TRIGGER IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS RIDING N/NE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWITCH TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON
SAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
CASCADES. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE LOW
CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL HELP COOL TEMPS BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS RISING A FEW
DEGREES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BESIDES THAT. 33

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF BREAKING DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THEN
THE RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE FLOW
TURNING MORE ZONAL OVER WA. THERE IS EVEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION BUT IT LOOKS DRY IN THE MODELS. BUT THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPS
DIPPING A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. 33

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL KEEP
HEIGHTS HIGH AND UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE THERE IS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. A LINE OF ACCAS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN KING COUNTY...WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH ABOUT 02Z THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. STRATUS WILL RETURN
TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL STRATUS
SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES ON
SATURDAY.

ANY CEILINGS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME IFR OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
GO AWAY AFTER 00Z OR SO. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THERMALLY
INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE
WEAKER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING...20-30 KT.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS OF VARYING STRENGTH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE STRAIT. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 012146
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
246 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm conditions will continue, with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. The storms may result in
some localized heavy downpours and gusty winds. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the next seven
days. However, only a few spots will reach the 100 degree mark.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday: We`ll keep the Red Flag warning in effect
for the North Cascades...including the Methow Valley and Okanogan
Valley into early evening...though the latest obs still show a
moderate cap in place that could potentially make this a non-
event. The next few hours will be key as the short-wave approaches
and temps continue to warm into the mid 90s in those northern
valleys and the cap weakens over the ridges. Of more importance is
the potential for flash flooding on burn scars from the recent
large wildfires in and near the Cascades. We can already see radar
returns beginning to increase along a NW-to-SE axis ahead of the
short-wave, but so far lightning has been minimal and confined to
along the Cascade crest. The only changes for Saturday was to
decrease thunder chances only slightly. bz

Saturday night through Monday: The Inland NW remains in an active
southwest flow, with continued shower and thunder chances. A
couple mid-level shortwaves troughs pass between Saturday night
and Sunday, before shortwave ridging starts to build in Monday.
The first shortwave trough moves across WA Saturday evening and
exits through ID into BC/MT overnight into Sunday morning. The
second shortwave trough comes on the heels of the first Sunday
morning into Sunday evening, tracking by the Cascades and
northeast along the BC/WA border Sunday morning. Saturday evening
moderate SBCAPE is indicated before the loss of daytime heating,
supporting the shower and thunderstorm threat across the region.
Coverage looks highest across the north and eastern zones and
least in the deeper Columbia Basin before 11 PM. However moderate
chances will linger across the northern mountain zones through
early Sunday morning, with the secondary shortwave passing and
modest elevated instability still in place. Through Sunday
afternoon the primary shortwave trough tracks near or north of the
Canadian border. Afternoon heating will reinvigorate the SBCAPE
across northeast WA and north ID, largely north of the
Spokane/C`dA and near the lower ID Panhandle into the Clearwaters.
The passing shortwave and proximity of the jet stream, as well as
orographic ascent, will be enough to keep the shower/thunder
chances alive across theses areas through the evening. Going into
Monday overall the incoming shortwave ridge will support a drier
forecast. A lingering shower/thunder threat exists across the
northeast mountains on the heels of the exiting shortwave. Some
chances will also be found in the proximity of the Blue Mountains,
Camas Prairie to lower Shoshone county with another shortwave
approaching from the the Sierras/Nevada/Oregon area. /J. Cote`

Monday evening through Friday...The current longwave pattern
consisting of a longwave trof with ridge axis placement over
Montana continues to hold in place through much if not all of this
entire time interval. This pattern is somewhat favorable at times
to allow weather disturbances coupled with moisture to come up
from the south or southwest. Indeed Monday evening into early
Wednesday it appears that a significant amount of moisture runs up
into our area from the south, almost seeming to originate at one
time from the tropics near the warm waters on either side of the
southern part of Mexico. This scenario supports a somewhat
unsettled forecast with thunderstorm potential mentioned in some
shape or form, at least down in the southeast part of the forecast
area near the Blue Mountains. Additionally hot temperatures should
remain until a slight cooling trend begins Wednesday. Thursday and
beyond the associated persistent offshore trof contains a more
active and deeper Gulf of Alaska low pressure area which is
expected to eject shortwaves around its periphery and up the west
side of the ridge, perhaps even a negatively tilted one. At the
minimum the heights of the ridge over us will be knocked down some
and the axis possibly displaced further to the east in Montana
which supports the currently advertised slight cooling trend with
continued mention of some possibility of thunderstorms. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Though VFR weather is still expected for all TAF sites,
isolated TSRA at best will be possible across the upper Columbia
Basin this afternoon. The chance of isolated TSRA will be from
MWH to EPH to EAT into the East Slopes of the Cascades. The other
area of thunder will be from LWS north to PUW. Gusty outflow winds
to 30 mph will be possible today. BZ.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  94  67  95  66  95 /  20  20  30  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  65  92  63  94  61  93 /  20  30  30  20  10  10
Pullman        60  93  59  94  57  94 /  20  20  30  10  10  10
Lewiston       72  98  71 101  70 100 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Colville       61  96  58  95  59  97 /  20  30  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      58  89  56  89  54  90 /  20  30  30  20  20  10
Kellogg        65  89  62  90  61  90 /  20  30  30  20  20  10
Moses Lake     67  98  65 100  65 101 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Wenatchee      74  97  71  99  73 100 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Omak           71  97  67  99  67 102 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012146
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
246 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm conditions will continue, with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. The storms may result in
some localized heavy downpours and gusty winds. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the next seven
days. However, only a few spots will reach the 100 degree mark.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday: We`ll keep the Red Flag warning in effect
for the North Cascades...including the Methow Valley and Okanogan
Valley into early evening...though the latest obs still show a
moderate cap in place that could potentially make this a non-
event. The next few hours will be key as the short-wave approaches
and temps continue to warm into the mid 90s in those northern
valleys and the cap weakens over the ridges. Of more importance is
the potential for flash flooding on burn scars from the recent
large wildfires in and near the Cascades. We can already see radar
returns beginning to increase along a NW-to-SE axis ahead of the
short-wave, but so far lightning has been minimal and confined to
along the Cascade crest. The only changes for Saturday was to
decrease thunder chances only slightly. bz

Saturday night through Monday: The Inland NW remains in an active
southwest flow, with continued shower and thunder chances. A
couple mid-level shortwaves troughs pass between Saturday night
and Sunday, before shortwave ridging starts to build in Monday.
The first shortwave trough moves across WA Saturday evening and
exits through ID into BC/MT overnight into Sunday morning. The
second shortwave trough comes on the heels of the first Sunday
morning into Sunday evening, tracking by the Cascades and
northeast along the BC/WA border Sunday morning. Saturday evening
moderate SBCAPE is indicated before the loss of daytime heating,
supporting the shower and thunderstorm threat across the region.
Coverage looks highest across the north and eastern zones and
least in the deeper Columbia Basin before 11 PM. However moderate
chances will linger across the northern mountain zones through
early Sunday morning, with the secondary shortwave passing and
modest elevated instability still in place. Through Sunday
afternoon the primary shortwave trough tracks near or north of the
Canadian border. Afternoon heating will reinvigorate the SBCAPE
across northeast WA and north ID, largely north of the
Spokane/C`dA and near the lower ID Panhandle into the Clearwaters.
The passing shortwave and proximity of the jet stream, as well as
orographic ascent, will be enough to keep the shower/thunder
chances alive across theses areas through the evening. Going into
Monday overall the incoming shortwave ridge will support a drier
forecast. A lingering shower/thunder threat exists across the
northeast mountains on the heels of the exiting shortwave. Some
chances will also be found in the proximity of the Blue Mountains,
Camas Prairie to lower Shoshone county with another shortwave
approaching from the the Sierras/Nevada/Oregon area. /J. Cote`

Monday evening through Friday...The current longwave pattern
consisting of a longwave trof with ridge axis placement over
Montana continues to hold in place through much if not all of this
entire time interval. This pattern is somewhat favorable at times
to allow weather disturbances coupled with moisture to come up
from the south or southwest. Indeed Monday evening into early
Wednesday it appears that a significant amount of moisture runs up
into our area from the south, almost seeming to originate at one
time from the tropics near the warm waters on either side of the
southern part of Mexico. This scenario supports a somewhat
unsettled forecast with thunderstorm potential mentioned in some
shape or form, at least down in the southeast part of the forecast
area near the Blue Mountains. Additionally hot temperatures should
remain until a slight cooling trend begins Wednesday. Thursday and
beyond the associated persistent offshore trof contains a more
active and deeper Gulf of Alaska low pressure area which is
expected to eject shortwaves around its periphery and up the west
side of the ridge, perhaps even a negatively tilted one. At the
minimum the heights of the ridge over us will be knocked down some
and the axis possibly displaced further to the east in Montana
which supports the currently advertised slight cooling trend with
continued mention of some possibility of thunderstorms. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Though VFR weather is still expected for all TAF sites,
isolated TSRA at best will be possible across the upper Columbia
Basin this afternoon. The chance of isolated TSRA will be from
MWH to EPH to EAT into the East Slopes of the Cascades. The other
area of thunder will be from LWS north to PUW. Gusty outflow winds
to 30 mph will be possible today. BZ.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  94  67  95  66  95 /  20  20  30  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  65  92  63  94  61  93 /  20  30  30  20  10  10
Pullman        60  93  59  94  57  94 /  20  20  30  10  10  10
Lewiston       72  98  71 101  70 100 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Colville       61  96  58  95  59  97 /  20  30  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      58  89  56  89  54  90 /  20  30  30  20  20  10
Kellogg        65  89  62  90  61  90 /  20  30  30  20  20  10
Moses Lake     67  98  65 100  65 101 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Wenatchee      74  97  71  99  73 100 /  20  20  20  10  10  10
Omak           71  97  67  99  67 102 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 012125
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 PM PDT FRI AUG  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FLATTEN OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE CASCADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...SLOWLY APPROACHING NORMAL
LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON THE
CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY AT 2PM. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO ABOUT THE PORTLAND
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CASCADES AGAIN SATURDAY.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CASCADES AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INLAND PUSH OF
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL GAPS LOOKS BETTER BY SUNDAY...AND EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS WILL COVER A LARGE AREA OF AROUND PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
TOWARD THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. TW

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
REGION UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL...EXPECT A DRY PATTERN WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT FAVORING A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS REMAINING A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND INCREASING IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE MARINE CLOUDS WILL PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IMPACT THE PORTLAND METRO AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY...BUT SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
THE UPRIVER DRIFT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE
HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL PRIMARILY BETWEEN 13Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SATURDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD TODAY...AND LINGERING SATURDAY IN
A SIMILAR POSITION WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN
THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OTHERWISE. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY INCREASE SUNDAY BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY SEAS...BUT
WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR LESS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012125
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 PM PDT FRI AUG  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FLATTEN OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE CASCADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...SLOWLY APPROACHING NORMAL
LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON THE
CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY AT 2PM. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO ABOUT THE PORTLAND
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CASCADES AGAIN SATURDAY.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CASCADES AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INLAND PUSH OF
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL GAPS LOOKS BETTER BY SUNDAY...AND EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS WILL COVER A LARGE AREA OF AROUND PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
TOWARD THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. TW

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
REGION UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL...EXPECT A DRY PATTERN WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT FAVORING A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS REMAINING A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND INCREASING IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE MARINE CLOUDS WILL PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IMPACT THE PORTLAND METRO AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY...BUT SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
THE UPRIVER DRIFT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE
HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL PRIMARILY BETWEEN 13Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SATURDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD TODAY...AND LINGERING SATURDAY IN
A SIMILAR POSITION WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN
THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OTHERWISE. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY INCREASE SUNDAY BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY SEAS...BUT
WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR LESS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012019
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
119 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF FROM THE HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SEVEN-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, ONLY A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH THE
100-DEGREE MARK. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE BUT COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TODAY: WE`VE MADE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FCST. MOST IMPORTANTLY DROPPING ALL FIRE WX WATCHES FOR THE
CENTRAL WA CASCADES, BUT UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEY
AREAS. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CASCADES HAS
BEEN INEFFICIENT AS FAR AS LIFT COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIGHTNING. A BIG FACTOR SEEMS
TO BE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. THIS CLOUD CANOPY SHOULD
SIGNIFICANT INHIBIT THE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY FOR THE
CASCADES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH CASCADES (METHOW AND
OKANOGAN VALLEY REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING HIGH ELEVATION
CASCADE RIDGES AND PEAKS). FOR THIS LATER AREA WE UPGRADED THE
FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT SFC
HEATING AND, THEREFORE, THE SFC-BASE INSTABILITY WOULD BE HIGHEST.
AND WITH SHORT- WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THIS LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING, SCATTERED LIGHTNING STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE.
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED...STRICTLY LIMITED TO BURN SCARS
ONLY WITH THE CURRENT FIRES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY PCPN THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY AMNT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOWS AND
AND RAPID RUNOFF. BZ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: THOUGH VFR WX IS STILL EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES,
ISOLATED TSRA AT BEST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE FROM
KMWH...TO KEPH...KEAT AND INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
THE OTHER AREA OF THUNDER WILL BE FROM KLWS NORTH TO KPUW. GUSTY
OUTFLOW THUNDER WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        91  68  94  66  94  66 /  20  10  20  20  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  92  63  92  63  93  61 /  20  20  30  30  10  20
PULLMAN        93  58  93  59  93  57 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
LEWISTON       96  70  98  71 100  69 /  20  30  20  20  10  10
COLVILLE       98  59  96  58  95  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  10
SANDPOINT      89  56  89  56  89  54 /  10  20  30  30  20  20
KELLOGG        89  63  89  62  89  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  20
MOSES LAKE     93  65  98  65  99  65 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
WENATCHEE      94  72  97  71  98  73 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
OMAK           96  69  97  67  98  68 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
     NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WENATCHEE AREA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
     WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE 685)-EAST WASHINGTON
     OKANOGAN/METHOW VALLEYS (ZONE 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 012019
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
119 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF FROM THE HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SEVEN-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, ONLY A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH THE
100-DEGREE MARK. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE BUT COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TODAY: WE`VE MADE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FCST. MOST IMPORTANTLY DROPPING ALL FIRE WX WATCHES FOR THE
CENTRAL WA CASCADES, BUT UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEY
AREAS. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CASCADES HAS
BEEN INEFFICIENT AS FAR AS LIFT COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIGHTNING. A BIG FACTOR SEEMS
TO BE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. THIS CLOUD CANOPY SHOULD
SIGNIFICANT INHIBIT THE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY FOR THE
CASCADES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH CASCADES (METHOW AND
OKANOGAN VALLEY REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING HIGH ELEVATION
CASCADE RIDGES AND PEAKS). FOR THIS LATER AREA WE UPGRADED THE
FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT SFC
HEATING AND, THEREFORE, THE SFC-BASE INSTABILITY WOULD BE HIGHEST.
AND WITH SHORT- WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THIS LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING, SCATTERED LIGHTNING STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE.
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED...STRICTLY LIMITED TO BURN SCARS
ONLY WITH THE CURRENT FIRES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY PCPN THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY AMNT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOWS AND
AND RAPID RUNOFF. BZ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: THOUGH VFR WX IS STILL EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES,
ISOLATED TSRA AT BEST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE FROM
KMWH...TO KEPH...KEAT AND INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
THE OTHER AREA OF THUNDER WILL BE FROM KLWS NORTH TO KPUW. GUSTY
OUTFLOW THUNDER WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        91  68  94  66  94  66 /  20  10  20  20  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  92  63  92  63  93  61 /  20  20  30  30  10  20
PULLMAN        93  58  93  59  93  57 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
LEWISTON       96  70  98  71 100  69 /  20  30  20  20  10  10
COLVILLE       98  59  96  58  95  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  10
SANDPOINT      89  56  89  56  89  54 /  10  20  30  30  20  20
KELLOGG        89  63  89  62  89  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  20
MOSES LAKE     93  65  98  65  99  65 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
WENATCHEE      94  72  97  71  98  73 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
OMAK           96  69  97  67  98  68 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
     NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WENATCHEE AREA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
     WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE 685)-EAST WASHINGTON
     OKANOGAN/METHOW VALLEYS (ZONE 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 012019
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
119 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF FROM THE HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SEVEN-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, ONLY A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH THE
100-DEGREE MARK. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE BUT COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TODAY: WE`VE MADE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FCST. MOST IMPORTANTLY DROPPING ALL FIRE WX WATCHES FOR THE
CENTRAL WA CASCADES, BUT UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEY
AREAS. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CASCADES HAS
BEEN INEFFICIENT AS FAR AS LIFT COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIGHTNING. A BIG FACTOR SEEMS
TO BE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. THIS CLOUD CANOPY SHOULD
SIGNIFICANT INHIBIT THE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY FOR THE
CASCADES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH CASCADES (METHOW AND
OKANOGAN VALLEY REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING HIGH ELEVATION
CASCADE RIDGES AND PEAKS). FOR THIS LATER AREA WE UPGRADED THE
FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT SFC
HEATING AND, THEREFORE, THE SFC-BASE INSTABILITY WOULD BE HIGHEST.
AND WITH SHORT- WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THIS LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING, SCATTERED LIGHTNING STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE.
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED...STRICTLY LIMITED TO BURN SCARS
ONLY WITH THE CURRENT FIRES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY PCPN THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY AMNT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOWS AND
AND RAPID RUNOFF. BZ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: THOUGH VFR WX IS STILL EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES,
ISOLATED TSRA AT BEST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE FROM
KMWH...TO KEPH...KEAT AND INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
THE OTHER AREA OF THUNDER WILL BE FROM KLWS NORTH TO KPUW. GUSTY
OUTFLOW THUNDER WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        91  68  94  66  94  66 /  20  10  20  20  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  92  63  92  63  93  61 /  20  20  30  30  10  20
PULLMAN        93  58  93  59  93  57 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
LEWISTON       96  70  98  71 100  69 /  20  30  20  20  10  10
COLVILLE       98  59  96  58  95  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  10
SANDPOINT      89  56  89  56  89  54 /  10  20  30  30  20  20
KELLOGG        89  63  89  62  89  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  20
MOSES LAKE     93  65  98  65  99  65 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
WENATCHEE      94  72  97  71  98  73 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
OMAK           96  69  97  67  98  68 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
     NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WENATCHEE AREA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
     WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE 685)-EAST WASHINGTON
     OKANOGAN/METHOW VALLEYS (ZONE 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 012019
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
119 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF FROM THE HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SEVEN-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, ONLY A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH THE
100-DEGREE MARK. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE BUT COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TODAY: WE`VE MADE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FCST. MOST IMPORTANTLY DROPPING ALL FIRE WX WATCHES FOR THE
CENTRAL WA CASCADES, BUT UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEY
AREAS. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CASCADES HAS
BEEN INEFFICIENT AS FAR AS LIFT COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIGHTNING. A BIG FACTOR SEEMS
TO BE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. THIS CLOUD CANOPY SHOULD
SIGNIFICANT INHIBIT THE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY FOR THE
CASCADES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH CASCADES (METHOW AND
OKANOGAN VALLEY REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING HIGH ELEVATION
CASCADE RIDGES AND PEAKS). FOR THIS LATER AREA WE UPGRADED THE
FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT SFC
HEATING AND, THEREFORE, THE SFC-BASE INSTABILITY WOULD BE HIGHEST.
AND WITH SHORT- WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THIS LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING, SCATTERED LIGHTNING STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE.
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED...STRICTLY LIMITED TO BURN SCARS
ONLY WITH THE CURRENT FIRES. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY PCPN THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY AMNT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOWS AND
AND RAPID RUNOFF. BZ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: THOUGH VFR WX IS STILL EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES,
ISOLATED TSRA AT BEST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE FROM
KMWH...TO KEPH...KEAT AND INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
THE OTHER AREA OF THUNDER WILL BE FROM KLWS NORTH TO KPUW. GUSTY
OUTFLOW THUNDER WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        91  68  94  66  94  66 /  20  10  20  20  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  92  63  92  63  93  61 /  20  20  30  30  10  20
PULLMAN        93  58  93  59  93  57 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
LEWISTON       96  70  98  71 100  69 /  20  30  20  20  10  10
COLVILLE       98  59  96  58  95  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  10
SANDPOINT      89  56  89  56  89  54 /  10  20  30  30  20  20
KELLOGG        89  63  89  62  89  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  20
MOSES LAKE     93  65  98  65  99  65 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
WENATCHEE      94  72  97  71  98  73 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
OMAK           96  69  97  67  98  68 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
     NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WENATCHEE AREA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
     WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE 685)-EAST WASHINGTON
     OKANOGAN/METHOW VALLEYS (ZONE 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 011607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
907 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK. A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLIPS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS OVER THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES. THE TROUGH IS
RIDING UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS CENTERED
OVER IDAHO. THIS FEATURE IS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR WHICH ALSO SHOW
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SALEM THROUGH WESTERN WA. RIGHT NOW THE
TROUGH IS TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CLARK/COWLITZ/LEWIS
COUNTIES. THIS CELL WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ SHOWS CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR
AND CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY T-STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED WITH LITTLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL HELP COOL
TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS WEEKENDS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA BY MONDAY TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REBUILD A LITTLE FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY. A
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5850 METERS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR
MASS WARM AND DRY FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A
LITTLE COOLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY BEFORE ALLOWING IT TO DISSIPATE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL KEEP
HEIGHTS HIGH AND UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. A DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON
WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. THERE WILL BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
ACCAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE COAST THIS MORNING.

CEILINGS ARE VFR EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THERE IS SOME
LIFR. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING. THE
CHANCE OF A STORM OVER SEATTLE IS PRETTY LOW BUT IT WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING THE RADAR THIS MORNING TO SEE IF THE STORMS OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON MAKE IT CLOSER TO THE METRO AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRATUS
SATURDAY MORNING. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON MOVING NORTH WILL GIVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY INLAND WATERS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. ONSHORE GRADIENTS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GALES IN THE STRAIT. HOWEVER HAVE OPTED
FOR HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR NOW...20-30 KT.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS OF VARYING STRENGTH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE STRAIT. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 011607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
907 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK. A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLIPS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS OVER THE INTERIOR AND CASCADES. THE TROUGH IS
RIDING UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS CENTERED
OVER IDAHO. THIS FEATURE IS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR WHICH ALSO SHOW
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SALEM THROUGH WESTERN WA. RIGHT NOW THE
TROUGH IS TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CLARK/COWLITZ/LEWIS
COUNTIES. THIS CELL WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ SHOWS CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR
AND CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY T-STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED WITH LITTLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL HELP COOL
TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS WEEKENDS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA BY MONDAY TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REBUILD A LITTLE FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY. A
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5850 METERS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR
MASS WARM AND DRY FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A
LITTLE COOLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY BEFORE ALLOWING IT TO DISSIPATE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL KEEP
HEIGHTS HIGH AND UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. A DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON
WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. THERE WILL BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
ACCAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE COAST THIS MORNING.

CEILINGS ARE VFR EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THERE IS SOME
LIFR. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING. THE
CHANCE OF A STORM OVER SEATTLE IS PRETTY LOW BUT IT WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING THE RADAR THIS MORNING TO SEE IF THE STORMS OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON MAKE IT CLOSER TO THE METRO AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRATUS
SATURDAY MORNING. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON MOVING NORTH WILL GIVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY INLAND WATERS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. ONSHORE GRADIENTS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GALES IN THE STRAIT. HOWEVER HAVE OPTED
FOR HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR NOW...20-30 KT.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS OF VARYING STRENGTH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE STRAIT. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 011605
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 AM PDT FRI AUG  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE CASCADES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...SLOWLY APPROACHING NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM MARION COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST WA ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WANING THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS (7AM-9AM)...BUT STILL HAVE SEEN HALF-DOZEN STRIKES
THE PAST TWO HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT THE PAST
12 HOURS WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ABOUT 0.15 INCH. EXCEPTION WAS
SCAPPOOSE WHERE 0.34 FELL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD MASS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHWEST WA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE WILLAPA
HILLS... NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE...AND THE ADJACENT PIECE OF THE
PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREA AS WELL. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME...SO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING FOR
THE FAR NORTH FROM ABOUT WILLSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER INCREASING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES BY THE AREA TODAY...WITH
SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARD
PORTLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE INLAND PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL GAPS LOOKS BETTER BY
SUNDAY...AND EXPECT A DECENT AREA OF AROUND PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
TOWARD THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS AROUND 90...IF THIS OCCURS IT
SHOULD DROP THE TEMPS IN THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREA DOWN TO AT
LEAST THE MID 80S.  TW/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REGION UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SEEMING TO FAVOR A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING OBSERVED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND TRY TO LIMIT VCTS/TSRA IN TAFS TO
TIMES OF HIGHEST CONCERN. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD PUSH
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE IS FINALLY BEGINNING
TO SATURATE. THE LOW CLOUDS SKIRTING THE COASTLINE TODAY WILL PUSH
INTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE. THERE IS A CHANCE
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IMPACT THE
PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IMPACT THE
TERMINAL PRIMARILY BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CURRENTLY HAVE A VCTS IN THE TAF FOR A
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MAY CLIP THE TAF SITE AROUND 1730Z TO 18Z
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND TRY TO LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF VCTS/TSRA TO TIMES OF HIGHEST CONCERN. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM
MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OTHERWISE...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY.

NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY
SEAS...BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR
LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CULLEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 011605
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 AM PDT FRI AUG  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE CASCADES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...SLOWLY APPROACHING NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM MARION COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST WA ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WANING THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS (7AM-9AM)...BUT STILL HAVE SEEN HALF-DOZEN STRIKES
THE PAST TWO HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT THE PAST
12 HOURS WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ABOUT 0.15 INCH. EXCEPTION WAS
SCAPPOOSE WHERE 0.34 FELL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD MASS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHWEST WA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE WILLAPA
HILLS... NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE...AND THE ADJACENT PIECE OF THE
PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREA AS WELL. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME...SO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING FOR
THE FAR NORTH FROM ABOUT WILLSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER INCREASING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES BY THE AREA TODAY...WITH
SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARD
PORTLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE INLAND PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL GAPS LOOKS BETTER BY
SUNDAY...AND EXPECT A DECENT AREA OF AROUND PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
TOWARD THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS AROUND 90...IF THIS OCCURS IT
SHOULD DROP THE TEMPS IN THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREA DOWN TO AT
LEAST THE MID 80S.  TW/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REGION UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SEEMING TO FAVOR A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING OBSERVED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND TRY TO LIMIT VCTS/TSRA IN TAFS TO
TIMES OF HIGHEST CONCERN. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD PUSH
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE IS FINALLY BEGINNING
TO SATURATE. THE LOW CLOUDS SKIRTING THE COASTLINE TODAY WILL PUSH
INTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE. THERE IS A CHANCE
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IMPACT THE
PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IMPACT THE
TERMINAL PRIMARILY BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. IN THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
DOWN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CURRENTLY HAVE A VCTS IN THE TAF FOR A
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MAY CLIP THE TAF SITE AROUND 1730Z TO 18Z
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND TRY TO LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF VCTS/TSRA TO TIMES OF HIGHEST CONCERN. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM
MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OTHERWISE...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY.

NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY
SEAS...BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR
LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CULLEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm conditions will continue with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots will reach the
100-degree mark. The showers and thunderstorms the next several
days are not expected to be strong or severe but could result in
localized heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Monsoonal moisture is starting to spread
north into the forecast area this morning. Satellite water vapor
imagery shows the deepest moisture moving north just on the west
side of the central Cascades. Regional radar is showing showers
and thunderstorms tracking north through western Oregon and also
isolated light returns across the NE Blues and Camas Prairie.
These areas will be ripe for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon as surface based instability increases. Model soundings
show inverted V shape with dry sub cloud layer. The last several
days have been hot and dry so it will take some time for
thunderstorms to transition from high based "dry" storms to a
wetter variety. We coordinated with SPC and agreed on an area of
Critical Fire Weather for scattered dry thunderstorms which
includes the Cascades and the higher terrain of WA surrounding the
Columbia Basin. A Fire Weather Watch continues for the east slopes
Cascade zones east to the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau.
I will leave it as is until the day shift can coordinate with
IMETs on active fires to determine if it needs to be extended in
area. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish overnight as surface
based instability lessens. We will see an increase in convection
Saturday but storms should transition to wet variety by then as
Pwats increase to around an inch. Temperatures will remain well
above normal today. There should be some cooling Saturday but that
will depend on where showers occur and how much precip falls.
/Kelch

Saturday Night through Thursday...No real big changes to the
model guidance over the  past 24 hours. A slow moving trough will
eject off the mothership low in the Gulf of Alaska and track
through the inland Northwest Saturday night into Sunday. The mid
level front is not overly impressive. However there will be plenty
of moisture to work with. Both SB cape and mid level cape will
support showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday.
PWATs are well above normal so localized heavy rain is probable
along with small hail. With the trough passage and cloud cover
expect several degrees of cooling.

Sunday night through Thursday the flow will flatten and become
mainly zonal. A few weak waves will move through the flow pumping
up a weak ridge at times followed by a fast moving and weak
disturbance. By this time we will lose the moisture tap and the
result will be manly some cloud build ups on the ridges and maybe
a sprinkle or two over the northern mountains. Temperatures will
rebound right back to 5-10 degrees above normal with no relief in
sight from the hot weather. Of bigger concern will be that each
of the weak waves will increase the winds through the Cascade gaps
at times. These are typically late afternoon and overnight events
aided by drainage winds off the terrain, with winds becoming
breezy in the evenings and overnight. Relative humidity is
expected to remain very dry with poor relative humidity recoveries
at night on mid slopes and ridges. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Mid level cloud
deck is spreading in from the south and thickening. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 21z for KLWS,
KPUW and KEAT. If any thunderstorms do develop near
airports...strong gusty outflow winds will be possible. Convective
showers and thunderstorms will diminish after 02Z Saturday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  68  94  66  94  66 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  63  92  63  93  61 /  10  20  30  30  10  20
Pullman        95  58  93  59  93  57 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Lewiston      101  70  98  71 100  69 /  30  30  20  20  10  10
Colville       98  59  96  58  95  60 /  10  20  30  30  20  10
Sandpoint      93  56  89  56  89  54 /  10  20  30  30  20  20
Kellogg        91  63  89  62  89  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  20
Moses Lake    100  65  98  65  99  65 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      98  72  97  71  98  73 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Omak          102  69  97  67  98  68 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch through this evening for East Washington
     South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-East Washington
     South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     FIRE Weather Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone
     682)-East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-
     East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm conditions will continue with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots will reach the
100-degree mark. The showers and thunderstorms the next several
days are not expected to be strong or severe but could result in
localized heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Monsoonal moisture is starting to spread
north into the forecast area this morning. Satellite water vapor
imagery shows the deepest moisture moving north just on the west
side of the central Cascades. Regional radar is showing showers
and thunderstorms tracking north through western Oregon and also
isolated light returns across the NE Blues and Camas Prairie.
These areas will be ripe for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon as surface based instability increases. Model soundings
show inverted V shape with dry sub cloud layer. The last several
days have been hot and dry so it will take some time for
thunderstorms to transition from high based "dry" storms to a
wetter variety. We coordinated with SPC and agreed on an area of
Critical Fire Weather for scattered dry thunderstorms which
includes the Cascades and the higher terrain of WA surrounding the
Columbia Basin. A Fire Weather Watch continues for the east slopes
Cascade zones east to the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau.
I will leave it as is until the day shift can coordinate with
IMETs on active fires to determine if it needs to be extended in
area. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish overnight as surface
based instability lessens. We will see an increase in convection
Saturday but storms should transition to wet variety by then as
Pwats increase to around an inch. Temperatures will remain well
above normal today. There should be some cooling Saturday but that
will depend on where showers occur and how much precip falls.
/Kelch

Saturday Night through Thursday...No real big changes to the
model guidance over the  past 24 hours. A slow moving trough will
eject off the mothership low in the Gulf of Alaska and track
through the inland Northwest Saturday night into Sunday. The mid
level front is not overly impressive. However there will be plenty
of moisture to work with. Both SB cape and mid level cape will
support showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday.
PWATs are well above normal so localized heavy rain is probable
along with small hail. With the trough passage and cloud cover
expect several degrees of cooling.

Sunday night through Thursday the flow will flatten and become
mainly zonal. A few weak waves will move through the flow pumping
up a weak ridge at times followed by a fast moving and weak
disturbance. By this time we will lose the moisture tap and the
result will be manly some cloud build ups on the ridges and maybe
a sprinkle or two over the northern mountains. Temperatures will
rebound right back to 5-10 degrees above normal with no relief in
sight from the hot weather. Of bigger concern will be that each
of the weak waves will increase the winds through the Cascade gaps
at times. These are typically late afternoon and overnight events
aided by drainage winds off the terrain, with winds becoming
breezy in the evenings and overnight. Relative humidity is
expected to remain very dry with poor relative humidity recoveries
at night on mid slopes and ridges. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Mid level cloud
deck is spreading in from the south and thickening. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 21z for KLWS,
KPUW and KEAT. If any thunderstorms do develop near
airports...strong gusty outflow winds will be possible. Convective
showers and thunderstorms will diminish after 02Z Saturday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  68  94  66  94  66 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  63  92  63  93  61 /  10  20  30  30  10  20
Pullman        95  58  93  59  93  57 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Lewiston      101  70  98  71 100  69 /  30  30  20  20  10  10
Colville       98  59  96  58  95  60 /  10  20  30  30  20  10
Sandpoint      93  56  89  56  89  54 /  10  20  30  30  20  20
Kellogg        91  63  89  62  89  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  20
Moses Lake    100  65  98  65  99  65 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      98  72  97  71  98  73 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Omak          102  69  97  67  98  68 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch through this evening for East Washington
     South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-East Washington
     South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     FIRE Weather Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone
     682)-East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-
     East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 011018
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
318 AM PDT FRI AUG  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE CASCADES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...SLOWLY APPROACHING NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING WOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WAS PRODUCING
ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE INTO THE CASCADES AND ON INTO CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS FEATURE JUST OVER AN
INCH. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAD BEEN RATHER LIGHT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WE ARE NOW SEEING MORE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HITTING
RAIN GAGES. SEVERAL GAGES HAVE SEEN SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...
AND EXPECT A FEW PLACES MAY HAVE HAD ONE OR TWO TENTHS. THE BACK OR
SOUTHERN EDGE TO THE ASSOCIATED INFRARED CLOUD MASS IS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD CLEAR OUR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST...SO FAR IT IS MAINLY NEAR NORTH BEND. WE MAY SEE A NARROW
RIBBON FORM ALONG AT LEAST PARTS OF THE COAST THIS MORNING HUT IT
MAY NOT BE VERY SOLID.

THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT OVER OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER
THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON THE
POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE...WILL ALSO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BACK WEST TOWARD THE WILLAPA HILLS AND THE NORTH OREGON
COAST RANGE...AND INCLUDE AN ADJACENT PIECE OF THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER AREA AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER INCREASING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARD PORTLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE FROM TODAY IS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...
BUT SOME WEAK TRAILING ENERGY SHOULD AGAIN GIVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES SATURDAY.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE INLAND PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL GAPS LOOKS BETTER BY
SUNDAY...AND EXPECT A DECENT AREA OF AROUND PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
TOWARD THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS AROUND 90...IF THIS OCCURS IT
SHOULD DROP THE TEMPS IN THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREA DOWN TO AT
LEAST THE MID 80S. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REGION UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SEEMING TO FAVOR A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING OBSERVED. EXPECT VCTS TO BE
CARRIED THROUGH 18Z ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES...BUT
PROBABLY ENDING BY 12Z-14Z FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO KEUG. MAY SEE
TEMPORARY VSBY REDUCTION TO MVFR IF A HEAVIER TSRA MOVES OVER A
TERMINAL...BUT OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. STORM THREAT SHOULD
END ACROSS THE VALLEY BY MID MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALONG THE
COAST...MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP BUT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR TODAY AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SOME
MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY PUSH ONSHORE AFT 00Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM S TO N
TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. EXPECT VCTS THROUGH AROUND 18Z...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA AT TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z-17Z. THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED ABUNDANT LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT SO THIS COULD IMPACT TERMINAL
OPERATIONS THROUGH AROUND 17Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OVER EASTERN APPROACHES.  CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY
WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM MATERIALIZING
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
OTHERWISE...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-25 KT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY.

NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY
SEAS...BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR LESS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 011018
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
318 AM PDT FRI AUG  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE CASCADES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...SLOWLY APPROACHING NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING WOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WAS PRODUCING
ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE INTO THE CASCADES AND ON INTO CENTRAL OREGON. THE MODELS
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS FEATURE JUST OVER AN
INCH. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAD BEEN RATHER LIGHT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WE ARE NOW SEEING MORE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HITTING
RAIN GAGES. SEVERAL GAGES HAVE SEEN SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...
AND EXPECT A FEW PLACES MAY HAVE HAD ONE OR TWO TENTHS. THE BACK OR
SOUTHERN EDGE TO THE ASSOCIATED INFRARED CLOUD MASS IS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD CLEAR OUR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST...SO FAR IT IS MAINLY NEAR NORTH BEND. WE MAY SEE A NARROW
RIBBON FORM ALONG AT LEAST PARTS OF THE COAST THIS MORNING HUT IT
MAY NOT BE VERY SOLID.

THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT OVER OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER
THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON THE
POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE...WILL ALSO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BACK WEST TOWARD THE WILLAPA HILLS AND THE NORTH OREGON
COAST RANGE...AND INCLUDE AN ADJACENT PIECE OF THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER AREA AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER INCREASING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARD PORTLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE FROM TODAY IS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...
BUT SOME WEAK TRAILING ENERGY SHOULD AGAIN GIVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES SATURDAY.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE INLAND PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL GAPS LOOKS BETTER BY
SUNDAY...AND EXPECT A DECENT AREA OF AROUND PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
TOWARD THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS AROUND 90...IF THIS OCCURS IT
SHOULD DROP THE TEMPS IN THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREA DOWN TO AT
LEAST THE MID 80S. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REGION UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUATION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SEEMING TO FAVOR A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING OBSERVED. EXPECT VCTS TO BE
CARRIED THROUGH 18Z ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES...BUT
PROBABLY ENDING BY 12Z-14Z FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO KEUG. MAY SEE
TEMPORARY VSBY REDUCTION TO MVFR IF A HEAVIER TSRA MOVES OVER A
TERMINAL...BUT OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. STORM THREAT SHOULD
END ACROSS THE VALLEY BY MID MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALONG THE
COAST...MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP BUT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR TODAY AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SOME
MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY PUSH ONSHORE AFT 00Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM S TO N
TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. EXPECT VCTS THROUGH AROUND 18Z...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA AT TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z-17Z. THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED ABUNDANT LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT SO THIS COULD IMPACT TERMINAL
OPERATIONS THROUGH AROUND 17Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OVER EASTERN APPROACHES.  CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY
WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM MATERIALIZING
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
OTHERWISE...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-25 KT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY.

NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY
SEAS...BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR LESS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 011010
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
310 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK. A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN NORMAL.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR COVERAGE OVER W WA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN OREGON WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER
SW WA TODAY...THEN WILL REMAIN OVER THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN DOING A NICE
JOB OF DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS OVER NW OREGON
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC WITH THE FINER FORECAST
DETAILS...WHICH COULD HAVE GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST FOR THE W WA LOWLANDS TODAY. IF YOU GO BY THE MOST RECENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO COVER TOO MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER THE
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY OVER THE W OREGON LOWLANDS CASTS DOUBT ON
THOSE SAME MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE BEST COURSE IS TO STICK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST...EVEN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT BY THEN THE MOST UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING NE
ONLY THE N CASCADES SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY.

QUITE A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER OREGON THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE UP OVER W WA TODAY FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AT BEST.

W WA AND THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH STRATUS FREE THIS
MORNING. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING STRATUS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW SPREADING IT INLAND OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND FOR A BIT MORE STRATUS COVERAGE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WARM AIR MASS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF
MAX TEMPS TODAY...AND MORNING STRATUS SHOULD DO THE SAME SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...THIS WEEKENDS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NE OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS THE
TROUGH DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD A LITTLE FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY. A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND
5850 METERS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MASS WARM AND DRY FOR LITTLE
CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A LITTLE COOLING. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE ALLOWING IT TO DISSIPATE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT OVER
WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. A DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REACH WRN WA TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ACCAS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS...THE
BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST THIS MORNING.

AT 3 AM THERE WAS A THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCAPPOOSE OREGON WHICH HAD 34
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN JUST 15 MINUTES.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
CHANCE OF A STORM OVER SEATTLE IS PRETTY LOW BUT IT WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING THE RADAR THIS MORNING TO SEE IF THE STORMS OVER NW OREGON
MAKE IT CLOSER TO THE METRO AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON
MOVING NORTH WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY INLAND
WATERS TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMERTIME WESTERLY SEA BREEZE FLOW IN
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA COULD GIVE WESTERLY GALES THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT BUT THE WRFGFS
DOES NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING SO WILL JUST
LEAVE THE GALE WATCH UP AND SIMPLY FORECAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE UP INTO INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY MORNING. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHICH ZONES
WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE COAST AND WESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.
IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

SINCE THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK...FUELS HAVE DRIED TO PRE-REQUISITE
DRYNESS NEEDED TO CONSIDER RED FLAG WARNINGS IN LOWLANDS ZONES FROM
SEATTLE ON SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
STEHEKIN AREA. FUELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
NORTH INTERIOR...WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE OF
NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK (STEHEKIN AREA)...WHICH IS THE ONLY
ZONE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH AND THE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUCH AN ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OFTEN PRECEDES A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...MERELY CALLING
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...WHICH IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
RED FLAG WARNING.    HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
       FUCA...COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
       TO 10 NM.
     GALE WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
       CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 011010
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
310 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK. A SMALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOONS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN NORMAL.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR COVERAGE OVER W WA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN OREGON WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER
SW WA TODAY...THEN WILL REMAIN OVER THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN DOING A NICE
JOB OF DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS OVER NW OREGON
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC WITH THE FINER FORECAST
DETAILS...WHICH COULD HAVE GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST FOR THE W WA LOWLANDS TODAY. IF YOU GO BY THE MOST RECENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO COVER TOO MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER THE
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY OVER THE W OREGON LOWLANDS CASTS DOUBT ON
THOSE SAME MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE BEST COURSE IS TO STICK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST...EVEN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT BY THEN THE MOST UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING NE
ONLY THE N CASCADES SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY.

QUITE A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER OREGON THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE UP OVER W WA TODAY FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AT BEST.

W WA AND THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH STRATUS FREE THIS
MORNING. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING STRATUS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW SPREADING IT INLAND OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND FOR A BIT MORE STRATUS COVERAGE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WARM AIR MASS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF
MAX TEMPS TODAY...AND MORNING STRATUS SHOULD DO THE SAME SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...THIS WEEKENDS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NE OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS THE
TROUGH DEPARTS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD A LITTLE FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY. A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND
5850 METERS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MASS WARM AND DRY FOR LITTLE
CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A LITTLE COOLING. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SEEM TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE ALLOWING IT TO DISSIPATE. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT OVER
WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. A DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REACH WRN WA TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ACCAS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS...THE
BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST THIS MORNING.

AT 3 AM THERE WAS A THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCAPPOOSE OREGON WHICH HAD 34
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN JUST 15 MINUTES.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
CHANCE OF A STORM OVER SEATTLE IS PRETTY LOW BUT IT WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING THE RADAR THIS MORNING TO SEE IF THE STORMS OVER NW OREGON
MAKE IT CLOSER TO THE METRO AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON
MOVING NORTH WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY INLAND
WATERS TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMERTIME WESTERLY SEA BREEZE FLOW IN
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA COULD GIVE WESTERLY GALES THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT BUT THE WRFGFS
DOES NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING SO WILL JUST
LEAVE THE GALE WATCH UP AND SIMPLY FORECAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE UP INTO INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY MORNING. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHICH ZONES
WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE COAST AND WESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.
IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

SINCE THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK...FUELS HAVE DRIED TO PRE-REQUISITE
DRYNESS NEEDED TO CONSIDER RED FLAG WARNINGS IN LOWLANDS ZONES FROM
SEATTLE ON SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
STEHEKIN AREA. FUELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
NORTH INTERIOR...WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE OF
NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK (STEHEKIN AREA)...WHICH IS THE ONLY
ZONE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH AND THE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUCH AN ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OFTEN PRECEDES A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...MERELY CALLING
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...WHICH IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
RED FLAG WARNING.    HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
       FUCA...COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
       TO 10 NM.
     GALE WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
       CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 010926
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and dry conditions will continue through the remainder of
the week with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected through Sunday. No significant relief from the hot
weather is forecast through the seven-day forecast period.
However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree mark. The
showers and thunderstorms the next several days are not expected
to be strong or severe but could result in localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Monsoonal moisture is starting to spread
north into the forecast area this morning. Satellite water vapor
imagery shows the deepest moisture moving north just on the west
side of the central Cascades. Regional radar is showing showers
and thunderstorms tracking north through western Oregon and also
isolated light returns across the NE Blues and Camas Prairie.
These areas will be ripe for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon as surface based instability increases. Model soundings
show inverted V shape with dry sub cloud layer. The last several
days have been hot and dry so it will take some time for
thunderstorms to transition from high based "dry" storms to a
wetter variety. We coordinated with SPC and agreed on an area of
Critical Fire Weather for scattered dry thunderstorms which
includes the Cascades and the higher terrain of WA surrounding the
Columbia Basin. A Fire Weather Watch continues for the east slopes
Cascade zones east to the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau.
I will leave it as is until the day shift can coordinate with
IMETs on active fires to determine if it needs to be extended in
area. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish overnight as surface
based instability lessens. We will see an increase in convection
Saturday but storms should transition to wet variety by then as
Pwats increase to around an inch. Temperatures will remain well
above normal today. There should be some cooling Saturday but that
will depend on where showers occur and how much precip falls.
/Kelch

Saturday Night through Thursday...No real big changes to the
model guidance over the  past 24 hours. A slow moving trough will
eject off the mothership low in the Gulf of Alaska and track
through the inland Northwest Saturday night into Sunday. The mid
level front is not overly impressive. However there will be plenty
of moisture to work with. Both SB cape and mid level cape will
support showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday.
PWATs are well above normal so localized heavy rain is probable
along with small hail. With the trough passage and cloud cover
expect several degrees of cooling.

Sunday night through Thursday the flow will flatten and become
mainly zonal. A few weak waves will move through the flow pumping
up a weak ridge at times followed by a fast moving and weak
disturbance. By this time we will lose the moisture tap and the
result will be manly some cloud build ups on the ridges and maybe
a sprinkle or two over the northern mountains. Temperatures will
rebound right back to 5-10 degrees above normal with no relief in
sight from the hot weather. Of bigger concern will be that each
of the weak waves will increase the winds through the Cascade gaps
at times. These are typically late afternoon and overnight events
aided by drainage winds off the terrain, with winds becoming
breezy in the evenings and overnight. Relative humidity is
expected to remain very dry with poor relative humidity recoveries
at night on mid slopes and ridges. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cirrus is
spreading in from the south and thickening. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms aft 21z for KLWS, KPUW and
KEAT. If any thunderstorms do develop near airports...strong gusty
outflow winds will be possible.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  68  94  66  94  66 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  63  92  63  93  61 /  10  20  30  30  10  20
Pullman        95  58  93  59  93  57 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Lewiston      101  70  98  71 100  69 /  30  30  20  20  10  10
Colville       98  59  96  58  95  60 /  10  20  30  30  20  10
Sandpoint      93  56  89  56  89  54 /  10  20  30  30  20  20
Kellogg        91  63  89  62  89  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  20
Moses Lake    100  65  98  65  99  65 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      98  72  97  71  98  73 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Omak          102  69  97  67  98  68 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch through this evening for East Washington
     South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-East Washington
     South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     FIRE Weather Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone
     682)-East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-
     East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 010926
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and dry conditions will continue through the remainder of
the week with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected through Sunday. No significant relief from the hot
weather is forecast through the seven-day forecast period.
However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree mark. The
showers and thunderstorms the next several days are not expected
to be strong or severe but could result in localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Monsoonal moisture is starting to spread
north into the forecast area this morning. Satellite water vapor
imagery shows the deepest moisture moving north just on the west
side of the central Cascades. Regional radar is showing showers
and thunderstorms tracking north through western Oregon and also
isolated light returns across the NE Blues and Camas Prairie.
These areas will be ripe for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon as surface based instability increases. Model soundings
show inverted V shape with dry sub cloud layer. The last several
days have been hot and dry so it will take some time for
thunderstorms to transition from high based "dry" storms to a
wetter variety. We coordinated with SPC and agreed on an area of
Critical Fire Weather for scattered dry thunderstorms which
includes the Cascades and the higher terrain of WA surrounding the
Columbia Basin. A Fire Weather Watch continues for the east slopes
Cascade zones east to the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau.
I will leave it as is until the day shift can coordinate with
IMETs on active fires to determine if it needs to be extended in
area. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish overnight as surface
based instability lessens. We will see an increase in convection
Saturday but storms should transition to wet variety by then as
Pwats increase to around an inch. Temperatures will remain well
above normal today. There should be some cooling Saturday but that
will depend on where showers occur and how much precip falls.
/Kelch

Saturday Night through Thursday...No real big changes to the
model guidance over the  past 24 hours. A slow moving trough will
eject off the mothership low in the Gulf of Alaska and track
through the inland Northwest Saturday night into Sunday. The mid
level front is not overly impressive. However there will be plenty
of moisture to work with. Both SB cape and mid level cape will
support showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday.
PWATs are well above normal so localized heavy rain is probable
along with small hail. With the trough passage and cloud cover
expect several degrees of cooling.

Sunday night through Thursday the flow will flatten and become
mainly zonal. A few weak waves will move through the flow pumping
up a weak ridge at times followed by a fast moving and weak
disturbance. By this time we will lose the moisture tap and the
result will be manly some cloud build ups on the ridges and maybe
a sprinkle or two over the northern mountains. Temperatures will
rebound right back to 5-10 degrees above normal with no relief in
sight from the hot weather. Of bigger concern will be that each
of the weak waves will increase the winds through the Cascade gaps
at times. These are typically late afternoon and overnight events
aided by drainage winds off the terrain, with winds becoming
breezy in the evenings and overnight. Relative humidity is
expected to remain very dry with poor relative humidity recoveries
at night on mid slopes and ridges. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cirrus is
spreading in from the south and thickening. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms aft 21z for KLWS, KPUW and
KEAT. If any thunderstorms do develop near airports...strong gusty
outflow winds will be possible.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  68  94  66  94  66 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  63  92  63  93  61 /  10  20  30  30  10  20
Pullman        95  58  93  59  93  57 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Lewiston      101  70  98  71 100  69 /  30  30  20  20  10  10
Colville       98  59  96  58  95  60 /  10  20  30  30  20  10
Sandpoint      93  56  89  56  89  54 /  10  20  30  30  20  20
Kellogg        91  63  89  62  89  60 /  20  20  30  30  20  20
Moses Lake    100  65  98  65  99  65 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      98  72  97  71  98  73 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Omak          102  69  97  67  98  68 /  30  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch through this evening for East Washington
     South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-East Washington
     South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     FIRE Weather Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone
     682)-East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-
     East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010602 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1102 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Update this evening was to issue a flash flood watch for late
Friday morning through Friday evening for the Washington Cascades.
Brief downpours from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding
across areas that have experienced recent wildfires.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level
ridge axis shifts east and the southwest flow begins to carry
disturbances more directly into the Inland NW, increasing the
threat of thunder for some areas. Tonight one disturbance moving
across northeast OR tracks by southeast WA and the southern
Panhandle of ID. Interacting with the SBCAPE around the Blues and
Camas Prairie into southeast Shoshone county, this will lead to
the continued threat of some showers/t-storms largely this
evening. The threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating the
SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper disturbance was coming into
southwest OR this afternoon. It is projected to move northeast
toward southern WA overnight into Friday morning, then into WA
during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cirrus is
spreading in from the south and thickening. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms aft 21z for KLWS, KPUW and
KEAT. If any thunderstorms do develop near airports...strong gusty
outflow winds will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday
evening for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington
North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington Northern Columbia Basin
(Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee
     Area.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010602 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1102 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Update this evening was to issue a flash flood watch for late
Friday morning through Friday evening for the Washington Cascades.
Brief downpours from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding
across areas that have experienced recent wildfires.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level
ridge axis shifts east and the southwest flow begins to carry
disturbances more directly into the Inland NW, increasing the
threat of thunder for some areas. Tonight one disturbance moving
across northeast OR tracks by southeast WA and the southern
Panhandle of ID. Interacting with the SBCAPE around the Blues and
Camas Prairie into southeast Shoshone county, this will lead to
the continued threat of some showers/t-storms largely this
evening. The threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating the
SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper disturbance was coming into
southwest OR this afternoon. It is projected to move northeast
toward southern WA overnight into Friday morning, then into WA
during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cirrus is
spreading in from the south and thickening. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms aft 21z for KLWS, KPUW and
KEAT. If any thunderstorms do develop near airports...strong gusty
outflow winds will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday
evening for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington
North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington Northern Columbia Basin
(Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee
     Area.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 010602 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1102 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Update this evening was to issue a flash flood watch for late
Friday morning through Friday evening for the Washington Cascades.
Brief downpours from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding
across areas that have experienced recent wildfires.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level
ridge axis shifts east and the southwest flow begins to carry
disturbances more directly into the Inland NW, increasing the
threat of thunder for some areas. Tonight one disturbance moving
across northeast OR tracks by southeast WA and the southern
Panhandle of ID. Interacting with the SBCAPE around the Blues and
Camas Prairie into southeast Shoshone county, this will lead to
the continued threat of some showers/t-storms largely this
evening. The threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating the
SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper disturbance was coming into
southwest OR this afternoon. It is projected to move northeast
toward southern WA overnight into Friday morning, then into WA
during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cirrus is
spreading in from the south and thickening. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms aft 21z for KLWS, KPUW and
KEAT. If any thunderstorms do develop near airports...strong gusty
outflow winds will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday
evening for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington
North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington Northern Columbia Basin
(Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee
     Area.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010539 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1039 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Update this evening was to issue a flash flood watch for late
Friday morning through Friday evening for the Washington Cascades.
Brief downpours from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding
across areas that have experienced recent wildfires.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level
ridge axis shifts east and the southwest flow begins to carry
disturbances more directly into the Inland NW, increasing the
threat of thunder for some areas. Tonight one disturbance moving
across northeast OR tracks by southeast WA and the southern
Panhandle of ID. Interacting with the SBCAPE around the Blues and
Camas Prairie into southeast Shoshone county, this will lead to
the continued threat of some showers/t-storms largely this
evening. The threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating the
SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper disturbance was coming into
southwest OR this afternoon. It is projected to move northeast
toward southern WA overnight into Friday morning, then into WA
during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cirrus is
spreading in from the south and thickening. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms aft 21z for KLWS, KPUW and
KEAT. If any thunderstorms do develop near airports...strong gusty
outflow winds will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee
     Area.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010539 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1039 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Update this evening was to issue a flash flood watch for late
Friday morning through Friday evening for the Washington Cascades.
Brief downpours from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding
across areas that have experienced recent wildfires.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level
ridge axis shifts east and the southwest flow begins to carry
disturbances more directly into the Inland NW, increasing the
threat of thunder for some areas. Tonight one disturbance moving
across northeast OR tracks by southeast WA and the southern
Panhandle of ID. Interacting with the SBCAPE around the Blues and
Camas Prairie into southeast Shoshone county, this will lead to
the continued threat of some showers/t-storms largely this
evening. The threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating the
SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper disturbance was coming into
southwest OR this afternoon. It is projected to move northeast
toward southern WA overnight into Friday morning, then into WA
during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cirrus is
spreading in from the south and thickening. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms aft 21z for KLWS, KPUW and
KEAT. If any thunderstorms do develop near airports...strong gusty
outflow winds will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee
     Area.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 010539 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1039 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Update this evening was to issue a flash flood watch for late
Friday morning through Friday evening for the Washington Cascades.
Brief downpours from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding
across areas that have experienced recent wildfires.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level
ridge axis shifts east and the southwest flow begins to carry
disturbances more directly into the Inland NW, increasing the
threat of thunder for some areas. Tonight one disturbance moving
across northeast OR tracks by southeast WA and the southern
Panhandle of ID. Interacting with the SBCAPE around the Blues and
Camas Prairie into southeast Shoshone county, this will lead to
the continued threat of some showers/t-storms largely this
evening. The threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating the
SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper disturbance was coming into
southwest OR this afternoon. It is projected to move northeast
toward southern WA overnight into Friday morning, then into WA
during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cirrus is
spreading in from the south and thickening. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms aft 21z for KLWS, KPUW and
KEAT. If any thunderstorms do develop near airports...strong gusty
outflow winds will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee
     Area.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
846 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WILL LIFT N THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE LOCATED VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT JUST
OFFSHORE AND OVER THE COAST RANGE NEAR NEWPORT. UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADD SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST RANGE. HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT TIMING IS MUCH TOO LATE COMPARED TO CURRENT
RADAR PICTURE. MODELS SUGGEST BEST INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
OVER THE CASCADES BUT COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AS HINTED AT BY A NUMBER OF MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO UPDATES APPEARED NECESSARY. /BOWEN

MODELS IN GENERAL INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
OF THE REGION FRI MORNING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS THE N. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
INDICATED IN MODELS TO FOLLOW SAT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SUN...BUT
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY SW TO
WESTERLY. EXPECT THIS TO RELEGATE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MORE
TO THE CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON...AND LIMITED MORE TO THE OREGON
CASCADES SAT AND SUN.

THE LACK OF ANY KIND OF MARINE PUSH LAST NIGHT WAS LIKELY RELATED TO
THE SHORTWAVE SITTING OFF THE S OREGON AND N CA COAST. AS THE WAVE
LIFTS N TONIGHT AND FRI THOUGH EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PICK UP
A BIT TONIGHT SUGGESTING MORE MARINE CLOUDS ON THE COAST...AND AN
EVEN BETTER PUSH FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS
PUSHING INLAND BY SAT MORNING...AS WELL AS A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
BY SAT. A SIMILAR SITUATION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN SUGGESTS AGAIN SOME
MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND FOR SUN MORNING...AND HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
A BIT COOLER SUN BUT LIKELY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REGION
UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE
HIGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT SEEMING TO FAVOR A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS
REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK ITS WAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT
THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
THUNDER FROM 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN VFR
FOR INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. COASTAL SITES MAY SEE
SOME VICINITY MVFR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. /27

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z-18Z FRIDAY.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...BUT DECIDED TO DROP THE CENTRAL OREGON OUTER WATERS WHERE
MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERACHIEVING ALL DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM MATERIALIZING
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OTHERWISE.

NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY
SEAS...BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR LESS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 10
     NM.

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
846 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WILL LIFT N THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE LOCATED VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT JUST
OFFSHORE AND OVER THE COAST RANGE NEAR NEWPORT. UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADD SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST RANGE. HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT TIMING IS MUCH TOO LATE COMPARED TO CURRENT
RADAR PICTURE. MODELS SUGGEST BEST INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
OVER THE CASCADES BUT COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AS HINTED AT BY A NUMBER OF MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO UPDATES APPEARED NECESSARY. /BOWEN

MODELS IN GENERAL INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
OF THE REGION FRI MORNING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS THE N. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
INDICATED IN MODELS TO FOLLOW SAT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SUN...BUT
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY SW TO
WESTERLY. EXPECT THIS TO RELEGATE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MORE
TO THE CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON...AND LIMITED MORE TO THE OREGON
CASCADES SAT AND SUN.

THE LACK OF ANY KIND OF MARINE PUSH LAST NIGHT WAS LIKELY RELATED TO
THE SHORTWAVE SITTING OFF THE S OREGON AND N CA COAST. AS THE WAVE
LIFTS N TONIGHT AND FRI THOUGH EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PICK UP
A BIT TONIGHT SUGGESTING MORE MARINE CLOUDS ON THE COAST...AND AN
EVEN BETTER PUSH FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS
PUSHING INLAND BY SAT MORNING...AS WELL AS A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
BY SAT. A SIMILAR SITUATION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN SUGGESTS AGAIN SOME
MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND FOR SUN MORNING...AND HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
A BIT COOLER SUN BUT LIKELY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REGION
UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE
HIGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT SEEMING TO FAVOR A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS
REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK ITS WAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT
THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
THUNDER FROM 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN VFR
FOR INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. COASTAL SITES MAY SEE
SOME VICINITY MVFR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. /27

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z-18Z FRIDAY.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...BUT DECIDED TO DROP THE CENTRAL OREGON OUTER WATERS WHERE
MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERACHIEVING ALL DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM MATERIALIZING
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OTHERWISE.

NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY
SEAS...BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR LESS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 10
     NM.

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 010337
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BRING MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS IT HAS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON
CASCADES AND ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON...WITH A SINGLE STRIKE OVER
YAKIMA COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS...THE SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE VIRTUALLY CLEAR --
INCLUDING AN ABSENCE OF MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COAST OR COASTAL
WATERS.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THE DIURNAL SEABREEZE -- SHOWING UP MAINLY AS
GALE WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AGAIN THIS EVENING --
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKLY OFFSHORE...AND IT WILL TURN ONLY WEAKLY
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE COASTAL STRATUS BUT
LITTLE TO ANY INLAND TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MINOR UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS THIS
EVENING...AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WASHINGTON COASTAL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD DRAW THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NORTH OR NORTHWEST INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
FORECAST FOR ONLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY IS DUE TO THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ACTIVITY...BUT CERTAINLY WE COULD END UP WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COASTAL STRATUS WILL
PROBABLY BE PRESENT AND MOVE INLAND A BIT EACH NIGHT. DAY BREAK
STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR WILL GIVE WAY QUICKLY
TO SUNSHINE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CASCADES CREST SATURDAY.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS
MORNING CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. BY THURSDAY SOME
LONG RANGE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP WESTERLIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED FRONTS APPROACHING THE AREA
SO IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT OVER
WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. A DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REACH WRN WA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ACCAS WITH A
CHANCE OF TSTMS FRI. PATCHY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND
THERE IS NO FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING
WHICH IS A BIT OF A SURPRISE. AT 8PM THERE WERE A THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEWPORT OREGON SO IT WILL BE WORTH CHECKING THE RADAR LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME ACCAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL REACH THE PUGET SOUND AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF A STORM OVER SEATTLE IS PRETTY LOW
BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THE RADAR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THAT HASN`T CHANGED OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WHAT IS DIFFERENT IS THAT THERE IS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON MOVING NORTH AND A THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEWPORT
OREGON AT 8PM. WE MAY SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS OVER WRN WA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...THE FAIRLY STRONG SUMMERTIME
WESTERLY SEA BREEZE FLOW IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH A PRETTY
GOOD NW BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES. AT 8PM RACE ROCKS
HAD WEST 35 KNOTS...SO A GALE WARNING WILL BE UP FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
THE CENTRAL STRAIT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE UP INTO INTERIOR
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY MORNING. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHICH ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE COAST AND WESTERN
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH STORM MOTION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.

SINCE THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK...FUELS HAVE DRIED TO PRE-REQUISITE
DRYNESS NEEDED TO CONSIDER RED FLAG WARNINGS IN LOWLANDS ZONES FROM
SEATTLE ON SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
STEHEKIN AREA. FUELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
NORTH INTERIOR...WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE OF
NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK (STEHEKIN AREA)...WHICH IS THE ONLY
ZONE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH AND THE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUCH AN ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OFTEN PRECEDES A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...MERELY CALLING
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...WHICH IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A RFW.    HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
       FUCA...COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
       TO 10 NM.
     GALE WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
       CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 010337
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BRING MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS IT HAS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON
CASCADES AND ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON...WITH A SINGLE STRIKE OVER
YAKIMA COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS...THE SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE VIRTUALLY CLEAR --
INCLUDING AN ABSENCE OF MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COAST OR COASTAL
WATERS.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THE DIURNAL SEABREEZE -- SHOWING UP MAINLY AS
GALE WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AGAIN THIS EVENING --
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKLY OFFSHORE...AND IT WILL TURN ONLY WEAKLY
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE COASTAL STRATUS BUT
LITTLE TO ANY INLAND TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MINOR UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS THIS
EVENING...AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WASHINGTON COASTAL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD DRAW THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NORTH OR NORTHWEST INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
FORECAST FOR ONLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY IS DUE TO THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ACTIVITY...BUT CERTAINLY WE COULD END UP WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COASTAL STRATUS WILL
PROBABLY BE PRESENT AND MOVE INLAND A BIT EACH NIGHT. DAY BREAK
STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR WILL GIVE WAY QUICKLY
TO SUNSHINE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CASCADES CREST SATURDAY.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS
MORNING CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. BY THURSDAY SOME
LONG RANGE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP WESTERLIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED FRONTS APPROACHING THE AREA
SO IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT OVER
WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. A DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REACH WRN WA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ACCAS WITH A
CHANCE OF TSTMS FRI. PATCHY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND
THERE IS NO FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING
WHICH IS A BIT OF A SURPRISE. AT 8PM THERE WERE A THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEWPORT OREGON SO IT WILL BE WORTH CHECKING THE RADAR LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

KSEA...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME ACCAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL REACH THE PUGET SOUND AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF A STORM OVER SEATTLE IS PRETTY LOW
BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THE RADAR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THAT HASN`T CHANGED OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WHAT IS DIFFERENT IS THAT THERE IS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON MOVING NORTH AND A THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEWPORT
OREGON AT 8PM. WE MAY SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS OVER WRN WA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...THE FAIRLY STRONG SUMMERTIME
WESTERLY SEA BREEZE FLOW IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH A PRETTY
GOOD NW BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES. AT 8PM RACE ROCKS
HAD WEST 35 KNOTS...SO A GALE WARNING WILL BE UP FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
THE CENTRAL STRAIT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE UP INTO INTERIOR
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY MORNING. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHICH ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE COAST AND WESTERN
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH STORM MOTION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.

SINCE THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK...FUELS HAVE DRIED TO PRE-REQUISITE
DRYNESS NEEDED TO CONSIDER RED FLAG WARNINGS IN LOWLANDS ZONES FROM
SEATTLE ON SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
STEHEKIN AREA. FUELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
NORTH INTERIOR...WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE OF
NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK (STEHEKIN AREA)...WHICH IS THE ONLY
ZONE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH AND THE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUCH AN ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OFTEN PRECEDES A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...MERELY CALLING
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...WHICH IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A RFW.    HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
       FUCA...COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
       TO 10 NM.
     GALE WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
       CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 010019 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
518 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Update this evening was to issue a flash flood watch for late
Friday morning through Friday evening for the Washington Cascades.
Brief downpours from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding
across areas that have experienced recent wildfires.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level
ridge axis shifts east and the southwest flow begins to carry
disturbances more directly into the Inland NW, increasing the
threat of thunder for some areas. Tonight one disturbance moving
across northeast OR tracks by southeast WA and the southern
Panhandle of ID. Interacting with the SBCAPE around the Blues and
Camas Prairie into southeast Shoshone county, this will lead to
the continued threat of some showers/t-storms largely this
evening. The threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating the
SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper disturbance was coming into
southwest OR this afternoon. It is projected to move northeast
toward southern WA overnight into Friday morning, then into WA
during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus over
the mountains will dissipate w the setting sun. Cirrus has already
begun to move into eastern WA. Isolated thunderstorm development
is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout Pass thru 04z. We will
also have to watch for the potential for a few elevated
showers/thunderstorms moving up the Cascades overnight into Friday
morning, but the threat of it passing any TAF sites is low. Shower
and thunderstorms will become more widespread as we move into mid-
late Fri aftn and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee
     Area.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010019 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
518 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Update this evening was to issue a flash flood watch for late
Friday morning through Friday evening for the Washington Cascades.
Brief downpours from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding
across areas that have experienced recent wildfires.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level
ridge axis shifts east and the southwest flow begins to carry
disturbances more directly into the Inland NW, increasing the
threat of thunder for some areas. Tonight one disturbance moving
across northeast OR tracks by southeast WA and the southern
Panhandle of ID. Interacting with the SBCAPE around the Blues and
Camas Prairie into southeast Shoshone county, this will lead to
the continued threat of some showers/t-storms largely this
evening. The threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating the
SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper disturbance was coming into
southwest OR this afternoon. It is projected to move northeast
toward southern WA overnight into Friday morning, then into WA
during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus over
the mountains will dissipate w the setting sun. Cirrus has already
begun to move into eastern WA. Isolated thunderstorm development
is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout Pass thru 04z. We will
also have to watch for the potential for a few elevated
showers/thunderstorms moving up the Cascades overnight into Friday
morning, but the threat of it passing any TAF sites is low. Shower
and thunderstorms will become more widespread as we move into mid-
late Fri aftn and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee
     Area.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010019 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
518 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Update this evening was to issue a flash flood watch for late
Friday morning through Friday evening for the Washington Cascades.
Brief downpours from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding
across areas that have experienced recent wildfires.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level
ridge axis shifts east and the southwest flow begins to carry
disturbances more directly into the Inland NW, increasing the
threat of thunder for some areas. Tonight one disturbance moving
across northeast OR tracks by southeast WA and the southern
Panhandle of ID. Interacting with the SBCAPE around the Blues and
Camas Prairie into southeast Shoshone county, this will lead to
the continued threat of some showers/t-storms largely this
evening. The threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating the
SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper disturbance was coming into
southwest OR this afternoon. It is projected to move northeast
toward southern WA overnight into Friday morning, then into WA
during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus over
the mountains will dissipate w the setting sun. Cirrus has already
begun to move into eastern WA. Isolated thunderstorm development
is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout Pass thru 04z. We will
also have to watch for the potential for a few elevated
showers/thunderstorms moving up the Cascades overnight into Friday
morning, but the threat of it passing any TAF sites is low. Shower
and thunderstorms will become more widespread as we move into mid-
late Fri aftn and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee
     Area.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&





000
FXUS66 KSEW 312244
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014...CORRECTED FIRE WX SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND
WARM WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS WRN WA TODAY
WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S BY DAYS END.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SO LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE LACK OF MARINE MOISTURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL KEEP THE WARM PATTERN GOING FRIDAY BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS
COME DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY SO FORECAST HIGHS ARE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A LARGER TROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE A
STRONGER ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
80...STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE WITH A COUPLE OF VORT MAX
FEATURES HEADING NE TOWARD WRN WA. THE FIRST WAVE IS PRODUCING LIFT
OVER THE SW PORTION OF OREGON. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AND THE FLOW
IS TURNING SLY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD. NO LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN DETECTED AT OF 230 PM BUT MODELS SHOW GOOD VERTICAL MOTION AS
THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWD TONIGHT. IT WILL REACH WRN WA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND BRING A LOW THREAT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
WRN WA. THIS WAS A DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PARSE OUT WITH VARYING
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND POOR INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM-12 HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND THE WRFGFS 4K IS GENERATING LIGHT QPF OVER PUGET
SOUND FROM LATE MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...ANY ELEVATED
CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL NOT PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. BUT LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WEEKEND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE
IDEA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO HAVE AT LEAST A LOW
POP WITH CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDER. THIS CAN BE TWEAKED AS NEEDED
BY THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS BUT I DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE THE I-5 URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM OLYMPIA TO EVERETT. PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ANYTIME ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR LIGHTNING IF STORMS WERE TO
APPROACH.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY AND ONLY
THE N CASCADES SUNDAY. SURFACE BASED SUB ZERO LI`S AND A WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THE MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
THREAT OF CONVECTION ENDING.

.LONG TERM..A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. BY THURSDAY SOME LONG
RANGE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP WESTERLIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS
COULD RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED FRONTS APPROACHING THE AREA
SO IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 132W COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR
MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 10Z WHEN MID LEVEL CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL OREGON LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...BUT THERE IS
ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE CASCADES.

MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SHALLOW ON FRIDAY AND
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
ZONES IN THE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BKN120 WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 13Z-18Z
FRIDAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS 8-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BECOME NE 6-8 KT THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEATING IN THE
INTERIOR...THIS INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ABOUT JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN GRADIENTS MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
ENTRANCE FRIDAY EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE DAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE UP INTO INTERIOR
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY MORNING. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHICH ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE COAST AND WESTERN
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH STORM MOTION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.

SINCE THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK...FUELS HAVE DRIED TO PRE-REQUISITE
DRYNESS NEEDED TO CONSIDER RED FLAG WARNINGS IN LOWLANDS ZONES FROM
SEATTLE ON SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
STEHEKIN AREA. FUELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
NORTH INTERIOR...WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE OF
NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK (STEHEKIN AREA)...WHICH IS THE ONLY
ZONE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH AND THE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUCH AN ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OFTEN PRECEDES A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...MERELY CALLING
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...WHICH IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A RFW.    HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
      COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
      TO 10 NM.
     GALE WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
      CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE
      STRAIT.


&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 312244
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014...CORRECTED FIRE WX SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND
WARM WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS WRN WA TODAY
WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S BY DAYS END.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SO LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE LACK OF MARINE MOISTURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL KEEP THE WARM PATTERN GOING FRIDAY BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS
COME DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY SO FORECAST HIGHS ARE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A LARGER TROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE A
STRONGER ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
80...STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE WITH A COUPLE OF VORT MAX
FEATURES HEADING NE TOWARD WRN WA. THE FIRST WAVE IS PRODUCING LIFT
OVER THE SW PORTION OF OREGON. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AND THE FLOW
IS TURNING SLY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD. NO LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN DETECTED AT OF 230 PM BUT MODELS SHOW GOOD VERTICAL MOTION AS
THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWD TONIGHT. IT WILL REACH WRN WA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND BRING A LOW THREAT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
WRN WA. THIS WAS A DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PARSE OUT WITH VARYING
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND POOR INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM-12 HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND THE WRFGFS 4K IS GENERATING LIGHT QPF OVER PUGET
SOUND FROM LATE MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...ANY ELEVATED
CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL NOT PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. BUT LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WEEKEND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE
IDEA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO HAVE AT LEAST A LOW
POP WITH CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDER. THIS CAN BE TWEAKED AS NEEDED
BY THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS BUT I DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE THE I-5 URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM OLYMPIA TO EVERETT. PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ANYTIME ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR LIGHTNING IF STORMS WERE TO
APPROACH.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY AND ONLY
THE N CASCADES SUNDAY. SURFACE BASED SUB ZERO LI`S AND A WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THE MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
THREAT OF CONVECTION ENDING.

.LONG TERM..A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. BY THURSDAY SOME LONG
RANGE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP WESTERLIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS
COULD RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED FRONTS APPROACHING THE AREA
SO IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 132W COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR
MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 10Z WHEN MID LEVEL CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL OREGON LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...BUT THERE IS
ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE CASCADES.

MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SHALLOW ON FRIDAY AND
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
ZONES IN THE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BKN120 WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 13Z-18Z
FRIDAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS 8-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BECOME NE 6-8 KT THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEATING IN THE
INTERIOR...THIS INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ABOUT JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN GRADIENTS MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
ENTRANCE FRIDAY EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE DAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE UP INTO INTERIOR
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY MORNING. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHICH ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE COAST AND WESTERN
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH STORM MOTION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.

SINCE THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK...FUELS HAVE DRIED TO PRE-REQUISITE
DRYNESS NEEDED TO CONSIDER RED FLAG WARNINGS IN LOWLANDS ZONES FROM
SEATTLE ON SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
STEHEKIN AREA. FUELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
NORTH INTERIOR...WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE OF
NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK (STEHEKIN AREA)...WHICH IS THE ONLY
ZONE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH AND THE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUCH AN ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OFTEN PRECEDES A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...MERELY CALLING
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...WHICH IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A RFW.    HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
      COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
      TO 10 NM.
     GALE WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
      CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE
      STRAIT.


&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



















000
FXUS66 KSEW 312217
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND
WARM WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS WRN WA TODAY
WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S BY DAYS END.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SO LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE LACK OF MARINE MOISTURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL KEEP THE WARM PATTERN GOING FRIDAY BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS
COME DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY SO FORECAST HIGHS ARE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A LARGER TROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE A
STRONGER ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
80...STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE WITH A COUPLE OF VORT MAX
FEATURES HEADING NE TOWARD WRN WA. THE FIRST WAVE IS PRODUCING LIFT
OVER THE SW PORTION OF OREGON. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AND THE FLOW
IS TURNING SLY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD. NO LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN DETECTED AT OF 230 PM BUT MODELS SHOW GOOD VERTICAL MOTION AS
THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWD TONIGHT. IT WILL REACH WRN WA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND BRING A LOW THREAT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
WRN WA. THIS WAS A DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PARSE OUT WITH VARYING
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND POOR INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM-12 HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND THE WRFGFS 4K IS GENERATING LIGHT QPF OVER PUGET
SOUND FROM LATE MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...ANY ELEVATED
CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL NOT PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. BUT LIGHTNING IS A CONERN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WEEKEND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE
IDEA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO HAVE AT LEAST A LOW
POP WITH CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDER. THIS CAN BE TWEAKED AS NEEDED
BY THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS BUT I DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE THE I-5 URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM OLYMPIA TO EVERETT. PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ANYTIME ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR LIGHTNING IF STORMS WERE TO
APPROACH.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY AND ONLY
THE N CASCADES SUNDAY. SURFACE BASED SUB ZERO LI`S AND A WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THE MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
THREAT OF CONVECTION ENDING.

.LONG TERM..A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. BY THURSDAY SOME LONG
RANGE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP WESTERLIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS
COULD RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED FRONTS APPROACHING THE AREA
SO IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 132W COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR
MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 10Z WHEN MID LEVEL CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL OREGON LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...BUT THERE IS
ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE CASCADES.

MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SHALLOW ON FRIDAY AND
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
ZONES IN THE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BKN120 WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 13Z-18Z
FRIDAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS 8-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BECOME NE 6-8 KT THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEATING IN THE
INTERIOR...THIS INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ABOUT JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN GRADIENTS MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
ENTRANCE FRIDAY EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE DAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE UP INTO INTERIOR
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY MORNING. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHICH ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE COAST AND WESTERN
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH STORM MOTION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.

SINCE THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK...FUELS HAVE DRIED TO PRE-REQUISITE
DRYNESS NEEDED TO CONSIDER RED FLAG WARNINGS IN LOWLANDS ZONES FROM
SEATTLE ON SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
STEHEKIN AREA. FUELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
NORTH INTERIOR...WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE OF
NROTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK (STEHEKIN AREA)...WHICH IS THE ONLY
ZONE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH AND THE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUCH AN ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OFTEN PRECEDES A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...MERELY CALLING
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...WHICH IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGHT TO WARRANT
A RFW.    HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
      COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
      TO 10 NM.
     GALE WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
      CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE
      STRAIT.


&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 312217
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND
WARM WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS WRN WA TODAY
WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S BY DAYS END.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SO LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE LACK OF MARINE MOISTURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL KEEP THE WARM PATTERN GOING FRIDAY BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS
COME DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY SO FORECAST HIGHS ARE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A LARGER TROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE A
STRONGER ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
80...STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE WITH A COUPLE OF VORT MAX
FEATURES HEADING NE TOWARD WRN WA. THE FIRST WAVE IS PRODUCING LIFT
OVER THE SW PORTION OF OREGON. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AND THE FLOW
IS TURNING SLY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD. NO LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN DETECTED AT OF 230 PM BUT MODELS SHOW GOOD VERTICAL MOTION AS
THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWD TONIGHT. IT WILL REACH WRN WA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND BRING A LOW THREAT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
WRN WA. THIS WAS A DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PARSE OUT WITH VARYING
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND POOR INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM-12 HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND THE WRFGFS 4K IS GENERATING LIGHT QPF OVER PUGET
SOUND FROM LATE MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...ANY ELEVATED
CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL NOT PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. BUT LIGHTNING IS A CONERN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WEEKEND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE
IDEA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO HAVE AT LEAST A LOW
POP WITH CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDER. THIS CAN BE TWEAKED AS NEEDED
BY THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS BUT I DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE THE I-5 URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM OLYMPIA TO EVERETT. PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ANYTIME ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR LIGHTNING IF STORMS WERE TO
APPROACH.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY AND ONLY
THE N CASCADES SUNDAY. SURFACE BASED SUB ZERO LI`S AND A WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THE MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
THREAT OF CONVECTION ENDING.

.LONG TERM..A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. BY THURSDAY SOME LONG
RANGE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP WESTERLIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS
COULD RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED FRONTS APPROACHING THE AREA
SO IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 132W COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR
MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 10Z WHEN MID LEVEL CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL OREGON LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...BUT THERE IS
ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE CASCADES.

MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SHALLOW ON FRIDAY AND
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
ZONES IN THE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BKN120 WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 13Z-18Z
FRIDAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS 8-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BECOME NE 6-8 KT THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEATING IN THE
INTERIOR...THIS INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ABOUT JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN GRADIENTS MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
ENTRANCE FRIDAY EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE DAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE UP INTO INTERIOR
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY MORNING. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHICH ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE COAST AND WESTERN
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH STORM MOTION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.

SINCE THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK...FUELS HAVE DRIED TO PRE-REQUISITE
DRYNESS NEEDED TO CONSIDER RED FLAG WARNINGS IN LOWLANDS ZONES FROM
SEATTLE ON SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
STEHEKIN AREA. FUELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
NORTH INTERIOR...WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE OF
NROTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK (STEHEKIN AREA)...WHICH IS THE ONLY
ZONE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH AND THE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUCH AN ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OFTEN PRECEDES A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...MERELY CALLING
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...WHICH IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGHT TO WARRANT
A RFW.    HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
      COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
      TO 10 NM.
     GALE WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
      CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE
      STRAIT.


&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 312217
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND
WARM WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS WRN WA TODAY
WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S BY DAYS END.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SO LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE LACK OF MARINE MOISTURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL KEEP THE WARM PATTERN GOING FRIDAY BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS
COME DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY SO FORECAST HIGHS ARE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A LARGER TROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE A
STRONGER ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
80...STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE WITH A COUPLE OF VORT MAX
FEATURES HEADING NE TOWARD WRN WA. THE FIRST WAVE IS PRODUCING LIFT
OVER THE SW PORTION OF OREGON. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AND THE FLOW
IS TURNING SLY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD. NO LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN DETECTED AT OF 230 PM BUT MODELS SHOW GOOD VERTICAL MOTION AS
THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWD TONIGHT. IT WILL REACH WRN WA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND BRING A LOW THREAT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
WRN WA. THIS WAS A DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PARSE OUT WITH VARYING
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND POOR INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM-12 HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND THE WRFGFS 4K IS GENERATING LIGHT QPF OVER PUGET
SOUND FROM LATE MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...ANY ELEVATED
CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL NOT PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. BUT LIGHTNING IS A CONERN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WEEKEND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE
IDEA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO HAVE AT LEAST A LOW
POP WITH CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDER. THIS CAN BE TWEAKED AS NEEDED
BY THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS BUT I DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE THE I-5 URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM OLYMPIA TO EVERETT. PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ANYTIME ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR LIGHTNING IF STORMS WERE TO
APPROACH.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY AND ONLY
THE N CASCADES SUNDAY. SURFACE BASED SUB ZERO LI`S AND A WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THE MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
THREAT OF CONVECTION ENDING.

.LONG TERM..A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. BY THURSDAY SOME LONG
RANGE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP WESTERLIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS
COULD RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED FRONTS APPROACHING THE AREA
SO IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 132W COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR
MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 10Z WHEN MID LEVEL CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL OREGON LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...BUT THERE IS
ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE CASCADES.

MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SHALLOW ON FRIDAY AND
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
ZONES IN THE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BKN120 WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 13Z-18Z
FRIDAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS 8-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BECOME NE 6-8 KT THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEATING IN THE
INTERIOR...THIS INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ABOUT JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN GRADIENTS MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
ENTRANCE FRIDAY EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE DAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE UP INTO INTERIOR
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY MORNING. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHICH ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE COAST AND WESTERN
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH STORM MOTION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.

SINCE THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK...FUELS HAVE DRIED TO PRE-REQUISITE
DRYNESS NEEDED TO CONSIDER RED FLAG WARNINGS IN LOWLANDS ZONES FROM
SEATTLE ON SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
STEHEKIN AREA. FUELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
NORTH INTERIOR...WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE OF
NROTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK (STEHEKIN AREA)...WHICH IS THE ONLY
ZONE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH AND THE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUCH AN ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OFTEN PRECEDES A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...MERELY CALLING
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...WHICH IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGHT TO WARRANT
A RFW.    HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
      COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
      TO 10 NM.
     GALE WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
      CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE
      STRAIT.


&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 312217
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND
WARM WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS WRN WA TODAY
WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S BY DAYS END.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SO LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE LACK OF MARINE MOISTURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL KEEP THE WARM PATTERN GOING FRIDAY BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS
COME DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY SO FORECAST HIGHS ARE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A LARGER TROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE A
STRONGER ONSHORE MARINE PUSH. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD DEEPEN WITH LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
80...STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE WITH A COUPLE OF VORT MAX
FEATURES HEADING NE TOWARD WRN WA. THE FIRST WAVE IS PRODUCING LIFT
OVER THE SW PORTION OF OREGON. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AND THE FLOW
IS TURNING SLY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD. NO LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN DETECTED AT OF 230 PM BUT MODELS SHOW GOOD VERTICAL MOTION AS
THIS FEATURE LIFTS NWD TONIGHT. IT WILL REACH WRN WA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND BRING A LOW THREAT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
WRN WA. THIS WAS A DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PARSE OUT WITH VARYING
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND POOR INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM-12 HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND THE WRFGFS 4K IS GENERATING LIGHT QPF OVER PUGET
SOUND FROM LATE MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...ANY ELEVATED
CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL NOT PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. BUT LIGHTNING IS A CONERN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WEEKEND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THE
IDEA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO HAVE AT LEAST A LOW
POP WITH CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDER. THIS CAN BE TWEAKED AS NEEDED
BY THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS BUT I DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE THE I-5 URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM OLYMPIA TO EVERETT. PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ANYTIME ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR LIGHTNING IF STORMS WERE TO
APPROACH.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY AND ONLY
THE N CASCADES SUNDAY. SURFACE BASED SUB ZERO LI`S AND A WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THE MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
THREAT OF CONVECTION ENDING.

.LONG TERM..A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. BY THURSDAY SOME LONG
RANGE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP WESTERLIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS
COULD RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED FRONTS APPROACHING THE AREA
SO IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 132W COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR
MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 10Z WHEN MID LEVEL CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL OREGON LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...BUT THERE IS
ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE VERY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE CASCADES.

MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SHALLOW ON FRIDAY AND
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
ZONES IN THE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BKN120 WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 13Z-18Z
FRIDAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS 8-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BECOME NE 6-8 KT THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEATING IN THE
INTERIOR...THIS INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ABOUT JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE INLAND WATERS.

ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN GRADIENTS MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
ENTRANCE FRIDAY EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE DAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE UP INTO INTERIOR
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY MORNING. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHICH ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE COAST AND WESTERN
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH STORM MOTION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.

SINCE THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK...FUELS HAVE DRIED TO PRE-REQUISITE
DRYNESS NEEDED TO CONSIDER RED FLAG WARNINGS IN LOWLANDS ZONES FROM
SEATTLE ON SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE
STEHEKIN AREA. FUELS REMAIN TOO MOIST IN OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
NORTH INTERIOR...WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EAST SIDE OF
NROTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK (STEHEKIN AREA)...WHICH IS THE ONLY
ZONE WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH AND THE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING ON FRIDAY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SUCH AN ISSUANCE. OF
COURSE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OFTEN PRECEDES A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...MERELY CALLING
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...WHICH IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGHT TO WARRANT
A RFW.    HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
      COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
      TO 10 NM.
     GALE WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
      CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE
      STRAIT.


&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KOTX 312145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level ridge axis shifts east
and the southwest flow begins to carry disturbances more directly
into the Inland NW, increasing the threat of thunder for some
areas. Tonight one disturbance moving across northeast OR tracks
by southeast WA and the southern Panhandle of ID. Interacting with
the SBCAPE around the Blues and Camas Prairie into southeast
Shoshone county, this will lead to the continued threat of some
showers/t-storms largely this evening. The threat wanes with the
loss of daytime heating the SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper
disturbance was coming into southwest OR this afternoon. It is
projected to move northeast toward southern WA overnight into
Friday morning, then into WA during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. We will also have to watch
for the potential for a few elevated showers coming into the Upper
Columbia Basin overnight into Friday morning, but the threat of it
passing any TAF sites is low. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 312145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level ridge axis shifts east
and the southwest flow begins to carry disturbances more directly
into the Inland NW, increasing the threat of thunder for some
areas. Tonight one disturbance moving across northeast OR tracks
by southeast WA and the southern Panhandle of ID. Interacting with
the SBCAPE around the Blues and Camas Prairie into southeast
Shoshone county, this will lead to the continued threat of some
showers/t-storms largely this evening. The threat wanes with the
loss of daytime heating the SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper
disturbance was coming into southwest OR this afternoon. It is
projected to move northeast toward southern WA overnight into
Friday morning, then into WA during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. We will also have to watch
for the potential for a few elevated showers coming into the Upper
Columbia Basin overnight into Friday morning, but the threat of it
passing any TAF sites is low. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 312145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The mid-level ridge axis shifts east
and the southwest flow begins to carry disturbances more directly
into the Inland NW, increasing the threat of thunder for some
areas. Tonight one disturbance moving across northeast OR tracks
by southeast WA and the southern Panhandle of ID. Interacting with
the SBCAPE around the Blues and Camas Prairie into southeast
Shoshone county, this will lead to the continued threat of some
showers/t-storms largely this evening. The threat wanes with the
loss of daytime heating the SBCAPE. However, a second and deeper
disturbance was coming into southwest OR this afternoon. It is
projected to move northeast toward southern WA overnight into
Friday morning, then into WA during the day Friday.

First overnight into Friday morning look for some increasing
clouds. The brunt of the available instability and deeper
moisture, however, appears to remain south of our forecast area
until after about 2 or 3 AM. So overnight the main shower/t-storm
chances will be over the Blues and over southwest Chelan county
Cascades. There is also concern that some activity may develop
over the lower Columbia Basin overnight and creep into the upper
Columbia Basin early Friday morning. However confidence is low and
PoPs will remain around 10 percent here.

Going into Friday afternoon the SBCAPE reinvigorates around the
mountain zones and secondarily toward the southeast WA/lower ID.
This includes the Palouse. With the aforementioned disturbance
lifting in, this will bring a broader shower/t-storm threat about
the mountain zones and southeast WA going into tomorrow afternoon.
General precipitation amounts are expected to be light, meaning a
concern for dry lightning and fire weather concerns. With these
factors and ongoing wildfires near the Cascades, a fire weather
watch was issued for the Cascades and Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and Wenatchee area. Temperatures will remain well above
normal and relatively humidity values remain low. There could also
be an increase in winds near the Cascades with the increased
onshore flow and cross-Cascade pressure gradient. /J. Cote`

Fri Nt through Sunday: Following the exit of the thunder-producing
short-wave trough into Srn BC Fri Nt, Sat through Sunday will be
under the influence of a very slow moving upper trough whose pcpn
will be highly terrain and diurnally driven. Large-scale forcing
for ascent won`t be very impressive with the main vort max moving
into Ern Wa Sat Nt, shearing and weakening as it does. However,
there will be a chance of nocturnal (overnight) showers or
isolated thunder both Fri Nt and Sat Nt. The afternoon thunder
threats will be located mostly across the Idaho Panhandle and NE
Wa. Based on the CAPE/deep lyr shear combo, widespread strong
thunderstorms are not expected. New fire starts will potentially be
an issue though. bz

Sunday evening through Thursday...Subtle deamplification of the
persistent long-wave ridge that has remained in place for quite
some time takes place during this interval. The other persistent
features such as the offshore trof/Gulf of Alaska low pressure
area an another trof/low pressure area over Eastern Canada remain
in place as well helping to "lock" our long-wave ridge in place.
The ridge axis remains generally in Montana for most of the
interval which means there could be some clutter/disturbances/moisture
coming up from the south or southwest off the East Pacific which
could affect our sensible weather in the form of clouds and/or
some thunderstorm potential. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. We will also have to watch
for the potential for a few elevated showers coming into the Upper
Columbia Basin overnight into Friday morning, but the threat of it
passing any TAF sites is low. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  95  66  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  94  62  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        58  94  57  92  59  91 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 100  69  97  71  97 /  10  30  30  20  20  10
Colville       57  97  59  95  58  94 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      53  92  56  88  56  87 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        59  90  62  88  62  86 /  10  20  20  30  20  20
Moses Lake     66  99  64  97  65  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Wenatchee      71  97  71  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  20  20  10
Omak           65 101  68  96  67  96 /  10  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)-
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

     FIRE Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
     East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312141
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WILL LIFT N THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A VERY SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OFF THE N CA AND S OREGON COAST IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES...
WITH AN ALTOCUMULUS FIELD MOVING UP INTO WESTCENTRAL OREGON
SUGGESTING SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE DIFFLUENT AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. SPC MESOANALYSIS HOWEVER INDICATES BEST INSTABILITY
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE CASCADES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO
SHOW SOME DESTABILIZATION ALOFT LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN THE CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT N...SO
IN ADDITION TO KEEPING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
CASCADES...WILL EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W TO THE
COAST RANGE. MODELS IN GENERAL INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE OF
THE REGION FRI MORNING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS THE N. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
INDICATED IN MODELS TO FOLLOW SAT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SUN...BUT
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY SW TO
WESTERLY. EXPECT THIS TO RELEGATE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MORE
TO THE CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON...AND LIMITED MORE TO THE OREGON
CASCADES SAT AND SUN.

THE LACK OF ANY KIND OF MARINE PUSH LAST NIGHT WAS LIKELY RELATED TO
THE SHORTWAVE SITTING OFF THE S OREGON AND N CA COAST. AS THE WAVE
LIFTS N TONIGHT AND FRI THOUGH EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PICK UP
A BIT TONIGHT SUGGESTING MORE MARINE CLOUDS ON THE COAST...AND AN
EVEN BETTER PUSH FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS
PUSHING INLAND BY SAT MORNING...AS WELL AS A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
BY SAT. A SIMILAR SITUATION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN SUGGESTS AGAIN SOME
MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND FOR SUN MORNING...AND HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
A BIT COOLER SUN BUT LIKELY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REGION
UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE
HIGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT SEEMING TO FAVOR A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS
REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THE MARINE LAYER WOULD
SATURATE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW THIS EVENING WOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO ALL
COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS IDEA SOMEWHAT...DESPITE LOW CLOUDS SKIRTING
THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR KAST AND KONP. IN
ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RIDE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...BUT SUSPECT THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING THUNDER TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN VFR FOR INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND
17Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT DECIDED TO DROP THE CENTRAL OREGON
OUTER WATERS WHERE MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERACHIEVING ALL DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM
MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OTHERWISE.

NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY
SEAS...BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR
LESS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312141
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WILL LIFT N THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE CASCADES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A VERY SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OFF THE N CA AND S OREGON COAST IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES...
WITH AN ALTOCUMULUS FIELD MOVING UP INTO WESTCENTRAL OREGON
SUGGESTING SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE DIFFLUENT AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. SPC MESOANALYSIS HOWEVER INDICATES BEST INSTABILITY
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE CASCADES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO
SHOW SOME DESTABILIZATION ALOFT LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN THE CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT N...SO
IN ADDITION TO KEEPING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
CASCADES...WILL EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W TO THE
COAST RANGE. MODELS IN GENERAL INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE OF
THE REGION FRI MORNING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS THE N. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
INDICATED IN MODELS TO FOLLOW SAT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SUN...BUT
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY SW TO
WESTERLY. EXPECT THIS TO RELEGATE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MORE
TO THE CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON...AND LIMITED MORE TO THE OREGON
CASCADES SAT AND SUN.

THE LACK OF ANY KIND OF MARINE PUSH LAST NIGHT WAS LIKELY RELATED TO
THE SHORTWAVE SITTING OFF THE S OREGON AND N CA COAST. AS THE WAVE
LIFTS N TONIGHT AND FRI THOUGH EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PICK UP
A BIT TONIGHT SUGGESTING MORE MARINE CLOUDS ON THE COAST...AND AN
EVEN BETTER PUSH FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS
PUSHING INLAND BY SAT MORNING...AS WELL AS A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
BY SAT. A SIMILAR SITUATION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN SUGGESTS AGAIN SOME
MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INLAND FOR SUN MORNING...AND HIGH TEMPS AGAIN
A BIT COOLER SUN BUT LIKELY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REGION
UNDER A WEAK 500 MB FLOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE
HIGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT SEEMING TO FAVOR A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND...AND TEMPS
REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THE MARINE LAYER WOULD
SATURATE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW THIS EVENING WOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO ALL
COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS IDEA SOMEWHAT...DESPITE LOW CLOUDS SKIRTING
THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR KAST AND KONP. IN
ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RIDE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...BUT SUSPECT THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING THUNDER TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN VFR FOR INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND
17Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT DECIDED TO DROP THE CENTRAL OREGON
OUTER WATERS WHERE MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERACHIEVING ALL DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT FROM
MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OTHERWISE.

NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL....LEADING TO CHOPPY
SEAS...BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 FT OR
LESS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KOTX 311817
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1116 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. We will also have to watch
for the potential for a few elevated showers coming into the Upper
Columbia Basin overnight into Friday morning, but the threat of it
passing any TAF sites is low. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311817
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1116 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. We will also have to watch
for the potential for a few elevated showers coming into the Upper
Columbia Basin overnight into Friday morning, but the threat of it
passing any TAF sites is low. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 311630
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THURSDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS WRN WA THIS MORNING INCLUDING MOST OF THE COAST. A DRY AND
WARMING AIR MASS RESIDES UNDER A 5880M UPPER RIDGE. 24 TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE AVERAGING AROUND +5C OVER YESTERDAY
WITH LIGHT GRADIENTS...THUS MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE POTENTIAL HIGHS
REACHED. MOS HAS COME UP A FEW DEGREES SO THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. A COUPLE SPOTS INLAND
FROM THE WATERS AND THE SW INTERIOR COULD PUSH 90 TODAY.

STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT ONLY
SEEP PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. LOW CLOUDS COULD REACH SHELTON AND ALSO DOWN THE STRAIT
BUT THE PUGET SOUND AREA SHOULD START OFF VOID OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH ADDS AN INTERESTING TWIST TO THE
FORECAST.

MOST OF THE 06/12Z MODELS THIS MORNING ARE STILL ADVERTISING
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LI`S ARE
NEGATIVE AND THE AIR MASS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE. THERE IS ANOTHER
ELEMENT TO CONSIDER FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THAT BEING
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW QPF WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION SINCE IT IS USUALLY VIRGA THAT FALLS...PRECIP NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. LATEST MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX FEATURE WILL INCREASE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE
MID LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 700 MB FLOW TURNS SLY AND THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH INCREASING THETA-E.
THIS IS A KEY SIGNATURE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT IT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN IF THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER MODELS CLOSER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDER THAT POSSIBILITY. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS...MEASURABLE RAIN IS
UNLIKELY AND LIGHTNING WOULD PRIMARILY BE INTRA-CLOUD BUT THAT IS
NOT A CERTAINTY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN WA DECREASES
LATER FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS N OF THE AREA AND WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

ANOTHER LARGER TROUGH WILL LIFT NWD OFF THE WA COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE LOWER HEIGHTS USUALLY MEANS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER SO LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS EARLY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT THE ADDED HUMIDITY WILL HINDER
POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR LOW 80S
AROUND THE SOUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS GOOD. THE TOP OF THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE CREST SO SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SLY FLOW SHOULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD TRAIN NWD ALONG THE CASCADES WITH
LITTLE THREAT TO THE LOWLANDS AT THIS POINT. FOR THE SEA-FAIR
ACTIVITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS DETAILED
BELOW. MERCER


.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS 330 AM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT
THE SAME AS SATURDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW
MORNING STRATUS TO FORM OVER MOST INLAND AREAS...FOLLOWED BY A
MIDDAY BURN-OFF. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER E WA/SE
B.C. WITH WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER I
WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A LITTLE LONGER JUST IN CASE.

A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON
MONDAY...THEN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE REMNANT OF A WEAK FRONT
REACHING W WA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
DRY FEATURE SO THE MAIN EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE CONTINUING WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 5860 METERS SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 132W COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SKIES
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE NEARLY CLEAR WITH ONLY ONE SMALL PATCH
OF FOG SEEN FROM ABOUT KUIL NORTHWARD ON THE NORTH WASHINGTON COAST
AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THIS FOG PATCH WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE.

EXPECT A SHALLOW PUSH OF MARINE AIR ONTO THE COAST...IN THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP...AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON EXCEPT AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND AND SHELTON. WHERE
THE FOG AND STRATUS MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
IFR CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT N TO NE
WINDS 5-7 KT THIS MORNING TO BECOME MORE NWLY AFTER 20Z...THEN
RETURN TO THE NE AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEATING IN THE
INTERIOR...THIS INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ABOUT JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INLAND WATERS
AS IT PASSES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT. A GALE
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE STRONGER GRADIENTS IN THEIR LATE MORNING
UPDATES.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT AND NWLY
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND POSSIBLE GALES ON SOME DAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
      COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
      TO 10 NM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 311630
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THURSDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS WRN WA THIS MORNING INCLUDING MOST OF THE COAST. A DRY AND
WARMING AIR MASS RESIDES UNDER A 5880M UPPER RIDGE. 24 TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE AVERAGING AROUND +5C OVER YESTERDAY
WITH LIGHT GRADIENTS...THUS MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE POTENTIAL HIGHS
REACHED. MOS HAS COME UP A FEW DEGREES SO THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. A COUPLE SPOTS INLAND
FROM THE WATERS AND THE SW INTERIOR COULD PUSH 90 TODAY.

STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT ONLY
SEEP PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. LOW CLOUDS COULD REACH SHELTON AND ALSO DOWN THE STRAIT
BUT THE PUGET SOUND AREA SHOULD START OFF VOID OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH ADDS AN INTERESTING TWIST TO THE
FORECAST.

MOST OF THE 06/12Z MODELS THIS MORNING ARE STILL ADVERTISING
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LI`S ARE
NEGATIVE AND THE AIR MASS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE. THERE IS ANOTHER
ELEMENT TO CONSIDER FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THAT BEING
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW QPF WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION SINCE IT IS USUALLY VIRGA THAT FALLS...PRECIP NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. LATEST MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX FEATURE WILL INCREASE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE
MID LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 700 MB FLOW TURNS SLY AND THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH INCREASING THETA-E.
THIS IS A KEY SIGNATURE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT IT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN IF THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER MODELS CLOSER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDER THAT POSSIBILITY. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS...MEASURABLE RAIN IS
UNLIKELY AND LIGHTNING WOULD PRIMARILY BE INTRA-CLOUD BUT THAT IS
NOT A CERTAINTY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN WA DECREASES
LATER FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS N OF THE AREA AND WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

ANOTHER LARGER TROUGH WILL LIFT NWD OFF THE WA COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE LOWER HEIGHTS USUALLY MEANS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER SO LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS EARLY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT THE ADDED HUMIDITY WILL HINDER
POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR LOW 80S
AROUND THE SOUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS GOOD. THE TOP OF THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE CREST SO SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SLY FLOW SHOULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD TRAIN NWD ALONG THE CASCADES WITH
LITTLE THREAT TO THE LOWLANDS AT THIS POINT. FOR THE SEA-FAIR
ACTIVITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS DETAILED
BELOW. MERCER


.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS 330 AM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT
THE SAME AS SATURDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW
MORNING STRATUS TO FORM OVER MOST INLAND AREAS...FOLLOWED BY A
MIDDAY BURN-OFF. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER E WA/SE
B.C. WITH WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER I
WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A LITTLE LONGER JUST IN CASE.

A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON
MONDAY...THEN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE REMNANT OF A WEAK FRONT
REACHING W WA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
DRY FEATURE SO THE MAIN EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE CONTINUING WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 5860 METERS SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 132W COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SKIES
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE NEARLY CLEAR WITH ONLY ONE SMALL PATCH
OF FOG SEEN FROM ABOUT KUIL NORTHWARD ON THE NORTH WASHINGTON COAST
AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THIS FOG PATCH WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE.

EXPECT A SHALLOW PUSH OF MARINE AIR ONTO THE COAST...IN THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP...AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON EXCEPT AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND AND SHELTON. WHERE
THE FOG AND STRATUS MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
IFR CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT N TO NE
WINDS 5-7 KT THIS MORNING TO BECOME MORE NWLY AFTER 20Z...THEN
RETURN TO THE NE AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEATING IN THE
INTERIOR...THIS INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ABOUT JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INLAND WATERS
AS IT PASSES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT. A GALE
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE STRONGER GRADIENTS IN THEIR LATE MORNING
UPDATES.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT AND NWLY
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND POSSIBLE GALES ON SOME DAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
      COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
      TO 10 NM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 311630
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THURSDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS WRN WA THIS MORNING INCLUDING MOST OF THE COAST. A DRY AND
WARMING AIR MASS RESIDES UNDER A 5880M UPPER RIDGE. 24 TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE AVERAGING AROUND +5C OVER YESTERDAY
WITH LIGHT GRADIENTS...THUS MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE POTENTIAL HIGHS
REACHED. MOS HAS COME UP A FEW DEGREES SO THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. A COUPLE SPOTS INLAND
FROM THE WATERS AND THE SW INTERIOR COULD PUSH 90 TODAY.

STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT ONLY
SEEP PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. LOW CLOUDS COULD REACH SHELTON AND ALSO DOWN THE STRAIT
BUT THE PUGET SOUND AREA SHOULD START OFF VOID OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH ADDS AN INTERESTING TWIST TO THE
FORECAST.

MOST OF THE 06/12Z MODELS THIS MORNING ARE STILL ADVERTISING
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LI`S ARE
NEGATIVE AND THE AIR MASS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE. THERE IS ANOTHER
ELEMENT TO CONSIDER FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THAT BEING
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW QPF WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION SINCE IT IS USUALLY VIRGA THAT FALLS...PRECIP NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. LATEST MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX FEATURE WILL INCREASE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE
MID LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 700 MB FLOW TURNS SLY AND THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH INCREASING THETA-E.
THIS IS A KEY SIGNATURE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT IT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN IF THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER MODELS CLOSER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDER THAT POSSIBILITY. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS...MEASURABLE RAIN IS
UNLIKELY AND LIGHTNING WOULD PRIMARILY BE INTRA-CLOUD BUT THAT IS
NOT A CERTAINTY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN WA DECREASES
LATER FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS N OF THE AREA AND WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

ANOTHER LARGER TROUGH WILL LIFT NWD OFF THE WA COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE LOWER HEIGHTS USUALLY MEANS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER SO LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS EARLY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT THE ADDED HUMIDITY WILL HINDER
POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR LOW 80S
AROUND THE SOUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS GOOD. THE TOP OF THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE CREST SO SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SLY FLOW SHOULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD TRAIN NWD ALONG THE CASCADES WITH
LITTLE THREAT TO THE LOWLANDS AT THIS POINT. FOR THE SEA-FAIR
ACTIVITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS DETAILED
BELOW. MERCER


.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS 330 AM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT
THE SAME AS SATURDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW
MORNING STRATUS TO FORM OVER MOST INLAND AREAS...FOLLOWED BY A
MIDDAY BURN-OFF. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER E WA/SE
B.C. WITH WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER I
WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A LITTLE LONGER JUST IN CASE.

A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON
MONDAY...THEN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE REMNANT OF A WEAK FRONT
REACHING W WA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
DRY FEATURE SO THE MAIN EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE CONTINUING WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 5860 METERS SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 132W COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SKIES
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE NEARLY CLEAR WITH ONLY ONE SMALL PATCH
OF FOG SEEN FROM ABOUT KUIL NORTHWARD ON THE NORTH WASHINGTON COAST
AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THIS FOG PATCH WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE.

EXPECT A SHALLOW PUSH OF MARINE AIR ONTO THE COAST...IN THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP...AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON EXCEPT AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND AND SHELTON. WHERE
THE FOG AND STRATUS MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
IFR CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT N TO NE
WINDS 5-7 KT THIS MORNING TO BECOME MORE NWLY AFTER 20Z...THEN
RETURN TO THE NE AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEATING IN THE
INTERIOR...THIS INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ABOUT JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INLAND WATERS
AS IT PASSES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT. A GALE
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE STRONGER GRADIENTS IN THEIR LATE MORNING
UPDATES.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT AND NWLY
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND POSSIBLE GALES ON SOME DAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
      COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
      TO 10 NM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 311630
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THURSDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS WRN WA THIS MORNING INCLUDING MOST OF THE COAST. A DRY AND
WARMING AIR MASS RESIDES UNDER A 5880M UPPER RIDGE. 24 TEMPERATURE
CHANGES ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE AVERAGING AROUND +5C OVER YESTERDAY
WITH LIGHT GRADIENTS...THUS MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE POTENTIAL HIGHS
REACHED. MOS HAS COME UP A FEW DEGREES SO THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND. A COUPLE SPOTS INLAND
FROM THE WATERS AND THE SW INTERIOR COULD PUSH 90 TODAY.

STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT ONLY
SEEP PARTIALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. LOW CLOUDS COULD REACH SHELTON AND ALSO DOWN THE STRAIT
BUT THE PUGET SOUND AREA SHOULD START OFF VOID OF ANY LOW CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH ADDS AN INTERESTING TWIST TO THE
FORECAST.

MOST OF THE 06/12Z MODELS THIS MORNING ARE STILL ADVERTISING
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LI`S ARE
NEGATIVE AND THE AIR MASS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE. THERE IS ANOTHER
ELEMENT TO CONSIDER FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THAT BEING
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW QPF WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION SINCE IT IS USUALLY VIRGA THAT FALLS...PRECIP NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. LATEST MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX FEATURE WILL INCREASE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE
MID LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 700 MB FLOW TURNS SLY AND THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH INCREASING THETA-E.
THIS IS A KEY SIGNATURE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT IT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN IF THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER MODELS CLOSER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDER THAT POSSIBILITY. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS...MEASURABLE RAIN IS
UNLIKELY AND LIGHTNING WOULD PRIMARILY BE INTRA-CLOUD BUT THAT IS
NOT A CERTAINTY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN WA DECREASES
LATER FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS N OF THE AREA AND WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

ANOTHER LARGER TROUGH WILL LIFT NWD OFF THE WA COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE LOWER HEIGHTS USUALLY MEANS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER SO LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS EARLY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT THE ADDED HUMIDITY WILL HINDER
POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR LOW 80S
AROUND THE SOUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS GOOD. THE TOP OF THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE CREST SO SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SLY FLOW SHOULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD TRAIN NWD ALONG THE CASCADES WITH
LITTLE THREAT TO THE LOWLANDS AT THIS POINT. FOR THE SEA-FAIR
ACTIVITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS DETAILED
BELOW. MERCER


.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS 330 AM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT
THE SAME AS SATURDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW
MORNING STRATUS TO FORM OVER MOST INLAND AREAS...FOLLOWED BY A
MIDDAY BURN-OFF. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER E WA/SE
B.C. WITH WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER I
WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A LITTLE LONGER JUST IN CASE.

A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON
MONDAY...THEN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE REMNANT OF A WEAK FRONT
REACHING W WA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
DRY FEATURE SO THE MAIN EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE CONTINUING WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 5860 METERS SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GIVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 132W COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SKIES
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE NEARLY CLEAR WITH ONLY ONE SMALL PATCH
OF FOG SEEN FROM ABOUT KUIL NORTHWARD ON THE NORTH WASHINGTON COAST
AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THIS FOG PATCH WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE.

EXPECT A SHALLOW PUSH OF MARINE AIR ONTO THE COAST...IN THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP...AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON EXCEPT AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND AND SHELTON. WHERE
THE FOG AND STRATUS MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
IFR CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT N TO NE
WINDS 5-7 KT THIS MORNING TO BECOME MORE NWLY AFTER 20Z...THEN
RETURN TO THE NE AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEATING IN THE
INTERIOR...THIS INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM ABOUT JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE INLAND WATERS
AS IT PASSES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT. A GALE
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE STRONGER GRADIENTS IN THEIR LATE MORNING
UPDATES.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT AND NWLY
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND POSSIBLE GALES ON SOME DAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
      COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
      TO 10 NM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KPQR 311604
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
903 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE
ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD
PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES THIS MORNING SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING SLOWLY N
OFF THE N CA COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN AREA OF
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING OVER SW OREGON...EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE
OREGON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST SOME ACCAS OR OTHER CLOUDS INDICATING INSTABILITY OVER
EXTREME SW OREGON EXTENDING OUT TO NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...SO
HARBOR SOME CONCERN ABOUT ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY W OF THE
CASCADES...BUT FOR NOW SINCE THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN SOLID
AGREEMENT INDICATING THE MAIN THREAT MORE CONFINED TO THE
CASCADES...WITH STICK WITH SHOWING THE ONLY CHANCES TODAY IN THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MARINE CLOUDS THIS
MORNING COAST OR INLAND. WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND A PERSISTENCE TYPE
PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS
HIGHS.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAKES SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING QUITE A WHILE
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO HELP SPREAD THE CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE COAST BETTER
TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...HOWEVER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY... AND
EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER THE CASCADES...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST OF THE VALLEYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE EITHER
LINGERS OVER THE AREA OR A PIECE OF TRAILING ENERGY MOVES IN AND
SLOWS ITS PROGRESS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME LEFT OVER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE MORE
SOLID AT THE COAST...AND EXPECT A BIT BETTER PENETRATION INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SATURDAY MORNING...THAT MAY SHAVE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH VALLEY AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER WESTERLY AND
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS BY A FEW
DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD SATURATE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO ALL
COASTAL LOCATIONS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREEP UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA BY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE HIGH END
IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z
FRIDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD SHOULD LIMIT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25
KT ACROSS THE WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EVEN THOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES DOMINATING THE SEAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND....LEADING TO STEEP CONDITIONS BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE
HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 6 FT. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
      TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KOTX 311134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 310958
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE
ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE
WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE CASCADES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF
ENHANCED CASCADE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CASCADES AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES INLAND ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MARINE CLOUDS THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE COAST THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS CLEARED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTHERLY UPWELLING FLOW. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY INLAND EITHER TODAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
SAME AS ON WEDNESDAY OR EVEN UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AS EVIDENT ESPECIALLY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
THE UPPER FLOW TENDS TO STAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...ALLOWING THIS
FEATURE TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...WHILE FARTHER WEST LOOKS MORE STABLE
WITH AN INVERSION. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BRUSHING THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES THIS MORNING SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THERE
EARLY BUT THE GFS MODEL LOOKS TOO BULLISH TAKING THIS TOO FAR
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT UPPER WIND FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAKES SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING QUITE A WHILE
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO HELP SPREAD THE CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE COAST BETTER
TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...HOWEVER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY... AND
EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER THE CASCADES...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST OF THE VALLEYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE EITHER
LINGERS OVER THE AREA OR A PIECE OF TRAILING ENERGY MOVES IN AND
SLOWS ITS PROGRESS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME LEFT OVER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE MORE
SOLID AT THE COAST...AND EXPECT A BIT BETTER PENETRATION INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SATURDAY MORNING...THAT MAY SHAVE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH VALLEY AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER WESTERLY AND
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS BY A FEW
DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW PATCHES OF LOCAL IFR MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST FROM KTMK SOUTH AFTER 11Z...BUT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
NOT EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR BY
16Z...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR PREVAILING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER NE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF N WINDS...
GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS S OF CASCADE
HEAD...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TODAY TO BE
LARGELY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...WHILE OBS FROM BUOY 46050
WERE RUNNING A BIT BELOW CRITERIA YESTERDAY EVENING...AN ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES DOMINATING THE SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND....LEADING TO STEEP
CONDITIONS BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 6 FT. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310958
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE
ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE
WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE CASCADES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF
ENHANCED CASCADE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CASCADES AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES INLAND ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MARINE CLOUDS THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE COAST THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS CLEARED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTHERLY UPWELLING FLOW. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY INLAND EITHER TODAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
SAME AS ON WEDNESDAY OR EVEN UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AS EVIDENT ESPECIALLY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
THE UPPER FLOW TENDS TO STAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...ALLOWING THIS
FEATURE TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...WHILE FARTHER WEST LOOKS MORE STABLE
WITH AN INVERSION. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BRUSHING THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES THIS MORNING SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THERE
EARLY BUT THE GFS MODEL LOOKS TOO BULLISH TAKING THIS TOO FAR
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT UPPER WIND FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAKES SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING QUITE A WHILE
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO HELP SPREAD THE CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE COAST BETTER
TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...HOWEVER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY... AND
EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER THE CASCADES...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST OF THE VALLEYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE EITHER
LINGERS OVER THE AREA OR A PIECE OF TRAILING ENERGY MOVES IN AND
SLOWS ITS PROGRESS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME LEFT OVER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE MORE
SOLID AT THE COAST...AND EXPECT A BIT BETTER PENETRATION INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SATURDAY MORNING...THAT MAY SHAVE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH VALLEY AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER WESTERLY AND
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS BY A FEW
DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW PATCHES OF LOCAL IFR MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST FROM KTMK SOUTH AFTER 11Z...BUT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
NOT EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR BY
16Z...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR PREVAILING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER NE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF N WINDS...
GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS S OF CASCADE
HEAD...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TODAY TO BE
LARGELY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...WHILE OBS FROM BUOY 46050
WERE RUNNING A BIT BELOW CRITERIA YESTERDAY EVENING...AN ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES DOMINATING THE SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND....LEADING TO STEEP
CONDITIONS BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 6 FT. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KSEW 310950
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FROM TONIGHT ONWARD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
ROCKIES WHICH PUTS W WA UNDER WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT. THE TWO FORECAST
PROBLEMS THIS MORNING ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH IMPACTS STRATUS COVERAGE AND DAILY TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 5880 METERS. STRATUS CLEARED FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
YESTERDAY AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN WEAKER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN PARTICULAR THE ONSHORE FLOW UP
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. FOG
PRODUCT IMAGERY AT 09Z/2 AM SHOWS NO STRATUS ANYWHERE. WITH THE
STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD AND NO COOLING FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE HIGHER TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW INTERIOR.

THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES STRATUS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN SPREADING PARTWAY INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY REACHING THE SW PART OF PUGET SOUND FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT ONSHORE FLOW CYCLE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY SHOULD BRING
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ALL THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS ALL AGREE ON
BRINGING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE NORTHWARD OFF THE WA COAST ON FRIDAY AND
THEN OVER NW WA/SW B.C. ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER W WA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHIFT THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 700 MB TO SOUTHERLY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND FRIDAY
TO ADVECT UP OVER W WA. THE GFS DROPS LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO AROUND
-2 BOTH AFTERNOONS WHILE THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE AT AROUND -5. BOTH
MODELS ALSO SHOW A POCKET OF INSTABILITY OVER THE E OLYMPICS. THE
FORECAST WAS ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...BACK TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS IS  DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GENERAL AIR MASS
COOLING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TO THE RETURN OF STRATUS
IN THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. KAM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY OVER THE
LOWLANDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO FORM OVER MOST
INLAND AREAS...FOLLOWED BY A MIDDAY BURN-OFF. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT OVER E WA/SE B.C. WITH WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER I WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF CASCADE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A LITTLE LONGER JUST
IN CASE.

A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON
MONDAY...THEN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE REMNANT OF A WEAK FRONT
REACHING W WA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
DRY FEATURE SO THE MAIN EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE CONTINUING WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 5860 METERS SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
PATCHY MORNING FOG COAST AND STRAIT OTHERWISE CLEAR. THE AIR WILL BE
UNSTABLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER
THE MTNS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...THE PATTERN HASN`T CHANGED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE IS NOT MUCH MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BUT THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE OF THAT BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPS. RACE ROCKS WILL FLIRT WITH WESTERLY GALES EACH EVENING...I
THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING UP AROUND 35KT FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THERE IS TONIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...DESTRUCTION ISLAND
GETS UP AROUND 25KTS EACH EVENING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE
BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH THE PORTLAND MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY JAMES
ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER AND OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 310950
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FROM TONIGHT ONWARD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
ROCKIES WHICH PUTS W WA UNDER WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT. THE TWO FORECAST
PROBLEMS THIS MORNING ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH IMPACTS STRATUS COVERAGE AND DAILY TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 5880 METERS. STRATUS CLEARED FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
YESTERDAY AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN WEAKER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN PARTICULAR THE ONSHORE FLOW UP
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. FOG
PRODUCT IMAGERY AT 09Z/2 AM SHOWS NO STRATUS ANYWHERE. WITH THE
STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD AND NO COOLING FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE HIGHER TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW INTERIOR.

THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES STRATUS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN SPREADING PARTWAY INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY REACHING THE SW PART OF PUGET SOUND FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT ONSHORE FLOW CYCLE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY SHOULD BRING
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ALL THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS ALL AGREE ON
BRINGING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE NORTHWARD OFF THE WA COAST ON FRIDAY AND
THEN OVER NW WA/SW B.C. ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER W WA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHIFT THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 700 MB TO SOUTHERLY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND FRIDAY
TO ADVECT UP OVER W WA. THE GFS DROPS LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO AROUND
-2 BOTH AFTERNOONS WHILE THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE AT AROUND -5. BOTH
MODELS ALSO SHOW A POCKET OF INSTABILITY OVER THE E OLYMPICS. THE
FORECAST WAS ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...BACK TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS IS  DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GENERAL AIR MASS
COOLING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TO THE RETURN OF STRATUS
IN THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. KAM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY OVER THE
LOWLANDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO FORM OVER MOST
INLAND AREAS...FOLLOWED BY A MIDDAY BURN-OFF. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT OVER E WA/SE B.C. WITH WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER I WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF CASCADE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A LITTLE LONGER JUST
IN CASE.

A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON
MONDAY...THEN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE REMNANT OF A WEAK FRONT
REACHING W WA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
DRY FEATURE SO THE MAIN EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE CONTINUING WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 5860 METERS SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
PATCHY MORNING FOG COAST AND STRAIT OTHERWISE CLEAR. THE AIR WILL BE
UNSTABLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER
THE MTNS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...THE PATTERN HASN`T CHANGED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE IS NOT MUCH MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BUT THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE OF THAT BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPS. RACE ROCKS WILL FLIRT WITH WESTERLY GALES EACH EVENING...I
THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING UP AROUND 35KT FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THERE IS TONIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...DESTRUCTION ISLAND
GETS UP AROUND 25KTS EACH EVENING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE
BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH THE PORTLAND MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY JAMES
ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER AND OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 310922
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cu will
develop over the mtns in the aftn with cirrus moving in from the
south through the late afternoon and evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout
Pass thurs afternoon/evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 310922
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cu will
develop over the mtns in the aftn with cirrus moving in from the
south through the late afternoon and evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout
Pass thurs afternoon/evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night. The forecast area
will be located on the backside of an upper level ridge through
Saturday and will be influenced by a weak sw flow aloft. A few
disturbances in the flow may increase moisture and lift to a
presently unstable air mass...resulting in isolated thunderstorms.
Due to a weak mid-level shear and marginal instability...most
storms will be garden variety and diurnally driven. The main
concern will be the slow storm movement bringing heavy downpours.
Today there have been a few showers sitting near the northeast
mountains with storm movement less than 10 mph. Forecasters will
need to keep a close eye on storms that may develop near burn
scars in steep terrain. Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to
central and northern Idaho, but a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms was added to all zones on Saturday. All models hint
at a shortwave off the coast edging inland that will steepen lapse
rates across eastern Washington on Saturday. Increasing clouds
will keep temperatures from climbing significantly during the
afternoon Thurs-Sat, but the heat advisory for the Lewiston area
will be extended through Thursday evening as this area will have
overnight lows around 70 and afternoon temperatures in the 100-105
degree range.

Sunday through Wednesday...No major changes are expected in the
weather pattern during the remainder of the period. The Pacific NW
will be influenced by a broad upper level ridge and an inverted
surface thermal trough. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast
for the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday...as weak
impulses pass through the region. Of course, any threat of
thunderstorms brings fire weather concerns but there does not
appear to be any organized waves to increase shear and enhance
lift for significant lightning strikes. moisture is limited as
well. Monsoonal moisture advection will primarily be directed
east of the Rockies. I`ve kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow is more
westerly. Models are in general agreement so confidence in the
continued hot temperatures is high...but there is uncertainty in
the thunderstorm forecast...particularly where thunderstorms will
be located Sunday and Monday. Wister

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cu will
develop over the mtns in the aftn with cirrus moving in from the
south through the late afternoon and evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout
Pass thurs afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  59  92  62  90 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Pullman        56  95  61  91  57  91 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Lewiston       70 102  69  97  68  97 /   0  10  10  30  30  20
Colville       57 101  57  95  59  95 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  52  89  56  87 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        61  93  57  90  62  87 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Moses Lake     64 100  65  97  64  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      71 100  67  96  71  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           65 100  63  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lower
Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 310536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night. The forecast area
will be located on the backside of an upper level ridge through
Saturday and will be influenced by a weak sw flow aloft. A few
disturbances in the flow may increase moisture and lift to a
presently unstable air mass...resulting in isolated thunderstorms.
Due to a weak mid-level shear and marginal instability...most
storms will be garden variety and diurnally driven. The main
concern will be the slow storm movement bringing heavy downpours.
Today there have been a few showers sitting near the northeast
mountains with storm movement less than 10 mph. Forecasters will
need to keep a close eye on storms that may develop near burn
scars in steep terrain. Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to
central and northern Idaho, but a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms was added to all zones on Saturday. All models hint
at a shortwave off the coast edging inland that will steepen lapse
rates across eastern Washington on Saturday. Increasing clouds
will keep temperatures from climbing significantly during the
afternoon Thurs-Sat, but the heat advisory for the Lewiston area
will be extended through Thursday evening as this area will have
overnight lows around 70 and afternoon temperatures in the 100-105
degree range.

Sunday through Wednesday...No major changes are expected in the
weather pattern during the remainder of the period. The Pacific NW
will be influenced by a broad upper level ridge and an inverted
surface thermal trough. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast
for the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday...as weak
impulses pass through the region. Of course, any threat of
thunderstorms brings fire weather concerns but there does not
appear to be any organized waves to increase shear and enhance
lift for significant lightning strikes. moisture is limited as
well. Monsoonal moisture advection will primarily be directed
east of the Rockies. I`ve kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow is more
westerly. Models are in general agreement so confidence in the
continued hot temperatures is high...but there is uncertainty in
the thunderstorm forecast...particularly where thunderstorms will
be located Sunday and Monday. Wister

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cu will
develop over the mtns in the aftn with cirrus moving in from the
south through the late afternoon and evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout
Pass thurs afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  59  92  62  90 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Pullman        56  95  61  91  57  91 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Lewiston       70 102  69  97  68  97 /   0  10  10  30  30  20
Colville       57 101  57  95  59  95 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  52  89  56  87 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        61  93  57  90  62  87 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Moses Lake     64 100  65  97  64  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      71 100  67  96  71  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           65 100  63  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lower
Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OCCURRED THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON HIGHWAY 58 BEARING THE BRUNT ONCE AGAIN.
ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR MOVED OFF THE CREST WITH RADAR INDICATED HAIL
EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY A WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
STORM NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE PASS WEBCAM DID SHOW A COUPLE
FRAMES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION. SO AM VERY CONFIDENT THERE WAS AT LEAST
SOME TREACHEROUS DRIVING FOR SOME TIME ALONG THE HIGHWAY AS THE CORE
OF THE STORM WAS A FEW MILES DOWNHILL FROM THERE. THE REST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CREST WITH THE
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HAVE OPTED TO PULL THE STRATUS MENTION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING OFFSHORE...THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED BELOW THAT HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 40N 133W AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD
LIFT AND ACT ON PARCELS AROUND 600 MB. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM NOT TERRIBLY LONG
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF EUGENE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING TRIGGER UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE SKY IS NOT
ALREADY COVERED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK


&&

./PREV DISC ISSUED 250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP
INLAND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN A LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
09Z TO 12Z...AND RETURN BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
13Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTH WINDS...GENERALLY STRONGEST EACH
DAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OCCURRED THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON HIGHWAY 58 BEARING THE BRUNT ONCE AGAIN.
ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR MOVED OFF THE CREST WITH RADAR INDICATED HAIL
EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY A WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
STORM NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE PASS WEBCAM DID SHOW A COUPLE
FRAMES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION. SO AM VERY CONFIDENT THERE WAS AT LEAST
SOME TREACHEROUS DRIVING FOR SOME TIME ALONG THE HIGHWAY AS THE CORE
OF THE STORM WAS A FEW MILES DOWNHILL FROM THERE. THE REST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CREST WITH THE
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HAVE OPTED TO PULL THE STRATUS MENTION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING OFFSHORE...THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED BELOW THAT HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 40N 133W AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD
LIFT AND ACT ON PARCELS AROUND 600 MB. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM NOT TERRIBLY LONG
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF EUGENE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING TRIGGER UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE SKY IS NOT
ALREADY COVERED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK


&&

./PREV DISC ISSUED 250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP
INLAND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN A LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
09Z TO 12Z...AND RETURN BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
13Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTH WINDS...GENERALLY STRONGEST EACH
DAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OCCURRED THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON HIGHWAY 58 BEARING THE BRUNT ONCE AGAIN.
ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR MOVED OFF THE CREST WITH RADAR INDICATED HAIL
EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY A WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
STORM NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE PASS WEBCAM DID SHOW A COUPLE
FRAMES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION. SO AM VERY CONFIDENT THERE WAS AT LEAST
SOME TREACHEROUS DRIVING FOR SOME TIME ALONG THE HIGHWAY AS THE CORE
OF THE STORM WAS A FEW MILES DOWNHILL FROM THERE. THE REST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CREST WITH THE
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HAVE OPTED TO PULL THE STRATUS MENTION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING OFFSHORE...THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED BELOW THAT HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 40N 133W AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD
LIFT AND ACT ON PARCELS AROUND 600 MB. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM NOT TERRIBLY LONG
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF EUGENE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING TRIGGER UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE SKY IS NOT
ALREADY COVERED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK


&&

./PREV DISC ISSUED 250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP
INLAND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN A LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
09Z TO 12Z...AND RETURN BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
13Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTH WINDS...GENERALLY STRONGEST EACH
DAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OCCURRED THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON HIGHWAY 58 BEARING THE BRUNT ONCE AGAIN.
ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR MOVED OFF THE CREST WITH RADAR INDICATED HAIL
EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY A WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
STORM NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE PASS WEBCAM DID SHOW A COUPLE
FRAMES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION. SO AM VERY CONFIDENT THERE WAS AT LEAST
SOME TREACHEROUS DRIVING FOR SOME TIME ALONG THE HIGHWAY AS THE CORE
OF THE STORM WAS A FEW MILES DOWNHILL FROM THERE. THE REST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CREST WITH THE
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HAVE OPTED TO PULL THE STRATUS MENTION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING OFFSHORE...THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED BELOW THAT HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 40N 133W AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD
LIFT AND ACT ON PARCELS AROUND 600 MB. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM NOT TERRIBLY LONG
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF EUGENE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING TRIGGER UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE SKY IS NOT
ALREADY COVERED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK


&&

./PREV DISC ISSUED 250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP
INLAND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN A LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
09Z TO 12Z...AND RETURN BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
13Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTH WINDS...GENERALLY STRONGEST EACH
DAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 310347
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM A 5950 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE BORDER OF MEXICO
AND NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WEAK...BUT THE
EVENING SEABREEZE IS AGAIN RESULTING IN WESTERLIES GALES IN THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FORECAST AREA HAS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...
AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COASTAL STRATUS THIS EVENING EVEN
OVER THE WATERS.

AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM -- THAT IS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG COULD FORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BUT THE
ABSENCE OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVER THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AT THE COAST AND MOSTLY 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

COASTAL STRATUS PROBABLY WILL BE PRESENT THURSDAY EVENING...AND IT
WILL LIKELY PUSH WEAKLY INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT -- THROUGH THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS...AND THROUGH
THE CHEHALIS GAP TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE INLAND SHOULD BURN
OFF MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER
GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST AND MID
70S TO MID 80S INLAND. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD REPEAT THE
SCENARIO CLOSELY.

MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH IS PRODUCING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON CASCADES
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SPREAD THE CONVECTION
TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES CREST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF INTO
B.C. ON SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL POP
OVER THE NRN CASCADES BUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STABILIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARM AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK SOME
MODELS START TO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY OR SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA
WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS STILL PROBABLY A DRY PATTERN
BUT COULD PRODUCE RENEWED MARINE CLOUDS AND BACKING OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
ALONG THE COAST BUT POSSIBLY INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA BY DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...RACE ROCKS HAD WEST 35KTS AT 8PM AND A GALE WARNING IS UP
FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT...BUT BUOY88 AT THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF THE
EAST ENTRANCE ZONE ONLY HAD WEST 21G25KT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS UP THERE. DESTRUCTION ISLAND HAS BEEN RIGHT AROUND NW27KT ALL
EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL ZONE THAT INCLUDES DESTRUCTION ISLAND AND THE ZONE SOUTH OF
THAT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THERMALLY
INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EASTERN
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY JAMES ISLAND TO
CAPE SHOALWATER AND OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities